道格拉斯·默里：普京、泽连斯基、特朗普、以色列、内塔尼亚胡、哈马斯与加沙
Douglas Murray: Putin, Zelenskyy, Trump, Israel, Netanyahu, Hamas & Gaza
评论家分析俄乌与中东两条战线，评述各方领导人的选择，以及西方舆论内部的分裂与争论。
2025年2月底，道格拉斯·默里（Douglas Murray）蹲在乌克兰东部前线的一个掩体里，手机屏幕上播的是白宫椭圆形办公室的直播。特朗普、万斯、泽连斯基，三个人当着全世界的面吵翻了。
身边一个士兵瞥了一眼屏幕，说他们被建议不要太关注政治上的来龙去脉。然后补了一句：“我有活儿要干。”
默里后来把这个细节写进了《纽约邮报》的专栏。三年战争把前线人的注意力训练成了一种过滤器，能改变战壕里的事情才值得关心，剩下都是噪音。
这场三小时的对话从那个掩体开始，一路走到加沙、德黑兰、1929年的柏林和1979年的德黑兰机场。默里的新书叫《论民主与死亡邪教》（On Democracies and Death Cults），书名本身就是他的论点：这个世界上真的有一批人，爱死亡胜过爱生命，而民主国家一直不愿意相信这件事。
一件军绿色上衣，和两个世界的错位
那场白宫争吵里有个细节被反复播放：一个记者问泽连斯基为什么不穿西装。
默里的反应很直接，他说这个问题是侮辱性的，理由不在于礼节，而在于两个世界的错位。
当一个从战争世界来的人走进和平世界，和平世界里的人至少应该有一点尊重，或者至少承认对方是从战争世界来的。你坐在一个政治环境里，谈论人被摧毁、被屠杀、被从窗户扔出去，而对面的那个人，这些词对他来说没有一个字是比喻。（道格拉斯·默里）
他举了丘吉尔的例子。二战期间丘吉尔出访外国，穿的是军装式制服。这不是不修边幅，这是一种提醒：我来自战争世界。
然后他做了一个假想。如果坐在那个位置上的是普京，某个记者开口问他：“大家都知道您做过不少面部医美，据说用的是贝卢斯科尼同一位医生，能谈谈吗？”全场都会立刻意识到这个问题不合适，东道主应该出来打圆场。泽连斯基面对的是同一类问题，只是没有人替他打圆场。
默里还提到另一层：如果泽连斯基坚持用乌克兰语或俄语、通过翻译回答，他会给自己多争取几秒钟的思考时间。那几秒钟在一场火药味十足的对话里是决定性的。泽连斯基是喜剧演员出身，机智、反应快、语言能力强，用母语他完全有能力把那个记者顶回去。
这些细节听起来琐碎，但默里的判断是，正是这类琐碎的东西，反映出一个时代理解力的退化。人们抓住一个次要的、无关紧要的细节大做文章，因为它比理解一场战争的来龙去脉容易得多。他举了个美国例子：奥巴马时期白宫椭圆形办公室的丘吉尔半身像被移走，美国右翼谈了整整八年。八年时间，用一座雕像代替了对奥巴马外交政策的实质批评。
我们总是被诱惑去做这件事。（道格拉斯·默里）
美国右翼为什么讨厌泽连斯基
莱克斯·弗里德曼（Lex Fridman）抛出了一个有点粗糙但很诚实的解释：美国政治太蠢了，蠢到可以简化成“左派说普京坏、泽连斯基好、挂乌克兰旗，所以右派必须反过来”。
默里认同这个说法，还补充了心理机制。
我能理解那些觉得这事很烦的人。那么多在简介里挂过黑命贵旗、骄傲旗、跨性别旗的人，突然又挂上乌克兰旗，而其中很多人一个星期前还不知道乌克兰在地图哪儿。很多没在真思考的人，本能反应就是：这些人真烦，我得恶心他们一下。但你必须从这上面升起来，说一句：一个国家的命运，不取决于我今天对网络梗的容忍度。（道格拉斯·默里）
他用了自己的说法，叫“活在线太久的人，得想办法从梗里爬出来”。
关于泽连斯基在那场会面里的失误，默里认为有一条是明显的：他忘了说谢谢。三年里他每次都说的那句话，那天没说。万斯就是抓住这一点扑上去的。
但弗里德曼不认为问题这么简单。他的分析更细：泽连斯基身上带着一种“理所当然”的气场，好像乌克兰是好人、俄罗斯是坏人是全世界都该知道的事，不需要解释。可椭圆形办公室里坐着一个新来的人，你得说服他。你得让他觉得这场战争值得赢，得让他觉得跟你站在一起是他的功劳。
这些人都很复杂，都有自恋的一面，拜登、特朗普都一样。你得想办法穿越这层复杂性。方法之一就是喂他的自我，承认他是世界上最伟大的谈判者，说“很高兴能和你坐在同一张桌子前，因为我相信你是那个能带来成功解决方案的人”。（莱克斯·弗里德曼）
默里承认这一层，同时坚持自己的判断：泽连斯基当时的状态是困惑。会面之前一周，特朗普刚说他是独裁者，政府里有人在暗示战争是乌克兰挑起的。对一个正在打自卫战的国家领导人来说，这种处境像《爱丽丝梦游仙境》。
我在那件事上对他有相当的同情，因为那确实令人困惑。（道格拉斯·默里）
对普京最狠的那几句
弗里德曼问得很直接：你对普京最严厉的批评是什么？
默里的回答像一份清单，一条一条摆出来。血腥的独裁者，对政治反对派的压制做到了极限，窃取国家资源，把自己和身边亲信喂饱。他不止在俄罗斯境内摧毁反对派，还跑到别的国家杀人。
在我出生的国家，有人在伦敦市中心被钋-210毒杀。在索尔兹伯里那样一座宜人的主教座堂城市，被投了一种能杀死几万人的神经毒剂。就算你认为他有权利管好自家的事，他也不该在第三国故意使用这种武器，这种武器的用途就是展示：我能一次带走几万个英国公民。（道格拉斯·默里）
关于选举，默里的回答干脆：不是自由选举，结果是假的。
弗里德曼追问，有没有可能他只是把对手都清除掉了，然后合法地赢得了选举？
如果一个人把他所有的对手都杀了，那确实对他很有帮助。（道格拉斯·默里）
这句话之后，弗里德曼笑了很久，说“在这个语境里用‘这位老兄’（chap）这个词，简直绝了”。
默里接着把话题引到“泽连斯基是独裁者”这个说法上。一个国家在全面自卫战争期间不举行选举，就被叫做独裁者。那么如果你真的对那个地区的自由选举充满热情，至少应该注意到俄罗斯的选举在任何有意义的意义上都不自由、不公正。
他特别强调了一句，这句话是整场对话的骨架：
这并不意味着因此就要说俄罗斯已经准备好变成西方式自由民主国家，完全不意味着这些。但至少，你得承认普京是什么。（道格拉斯·默里）
“现实主义”这顶帽子
弗里德曼把米尔斯海默（John Mearsheimer）的名字摆上桌：用冷冰冰的地缘政治计算来解释俄罗斯在格鲁吉亚、乌克兰的军事行动，扩大势力范围，这套框架有没有它的深度？
默里的回应从词本身开始。他说自己非常怀疑“现实主义者”这个标签，因为几乎所有人都会说自己是外交政策上的现实主义者，很少有人自称超现实主义者。
我倒想见见他们。一个超现实主义外交政策分析师。（道格拉斯·默里）
玩笑之后是正题。他说过去几年发生了一件像“招魂”一样的事：一些在乌克兰问题上早已被彻底驳倒的人物，米尔斯海默，以色列议题上的芬克尔斯坦，重新被请回舞台中央。这些人消失了很多年，原因是没人愿意听他们，而且通常是有充分理由的。
他愿意给出对方最强的版本：俄罗斯拥有、或者自认为拥有一个势力范围，这令人遗憾，但我们能做的不多。
这大概是你能给出的最好的版本了。（道格拉斯·默里）
然后他拆这个版本。超级大国确实都这么干，美国用军事力量维持全球影响力，中国用政治力量和经济手段，香港是最明显的例子。问题在于，这套框架允许你给一个相当贪婪的政权多少空间？这道计算题每周都在变，每年都在变。
他举了自己的亲身经历。2008年普京入侵格鲁吉亚之后，他去过那个国家。当时他的格鲁吉亚朋友相信，2008年之后他们能拿到北约成员资格或者欧盟成员资格，默里觉得这个判断错得离谱，现在依然这么认为，甚至认为对欧洲和北约来说，接纳格鲁吉亚几乎是不可取的，因为你必须非常小心，不要设一条绊线，然后引发第三次世界大战。
这句话对乌克兰同样适用。从1990年代起，这个问题就悬在那里。
但反过来，他也不接受“普京只想要乌克兰”这个说法。波罗的海三国的国防开支占 GDP 比例是整个北约里最高的，立陶宛人、拉脱维亚人、爱沙尼亚人是真的害怕，不是装给谁看的。
还有一个原因让我觉得亲自去看很重要。我清楚地记得2008年普京试图入侵之后我在格鲁吉亚。人们不必是最坚定的乌克兰支持者，只要承认一件事：看起来乌克兰并不是普京视野里唯一的东西。（道格拉斯·默里）
和平会是什么样，以及“快点停火”的陷阱
默里对和平方案的预判很朴素：乌克兰割让东部领土，然后在停战期重新武装。
他马上又给这个预判加了一层限制。非乌克兰人在纽约的咖啡馆里谈论“顿涅茨克当然得给普京”，说起来轻巧，可这些地区住着几十万不想活在普京统治下的乌克兰公民，他们的家人在乌克兰其他地方。
他最近采访了一些从俄占区逃出来的孩子。那里的学校只有俄语教学，教的是普京版本的历史。不愿接受这一切的家庭只能躲在家里不出门。2022和2023年，俄罗斯在占领区办夏令营，孩子去了就没回来。据估计大约有两万名乌克兰儿童以这种方式被带走。
一个十几岁的男孩跟我描述，他母亲外出时，有个女人来敲门，把他的证件交给他，通知他下周去报到，加入俄罗斯军队。（道格拉斯·默里）
所以当有人说“这些地区当然得交出去”的时候，默里的态度是：在乌克兰人眼里，接受这件事极其、极其困难。
弗里德曼追问，会不会有几代人的时间都无法接受？
默里说，他会说“永远不会”。
关于用经济利益换和平的思路，特朗普政府推的矿产协议是其中一个版本：美国企业进入，形成缓冲区，普京就不敢动。默里不信这套。
2022年被入侵的地区也有美国人，他们跑得很快。香港的例子也摆在那儿，一个地区有国际金融利益，不等于独裁政权不会用军事或隐蔽手段接管。我不认为美国矿工能构成对普京的有效缓冲。（道格拉斯·默里）
他提了一本被遗忘的书：诺曼·安吉尔（Norman Angell）在战前写的那本畅销书，论证欧洲列强之间的战争在经济上不可行，所以欧洲会进入持久的康德式和平。一战之后那本书再版了。
我没读过第二版，但我猜它被大幅改写过。（道格拉斯·默里）
默里在这次对话里给出的提醒，这句最锋利：经济相互依存能劝住一些非常理性的行为体，但它无法覆盖让人走向战争、走向疯狂的全部动机。
弗里德曼在这里给出了自己的方案：与其指望一纸安全保证，不如让乌克兰和尽可能多的国家建立军事和经济伙伴关系，中东、印度、中国、美国、欧洲。俄罗斯需要朋友，一个繁荣的世界里，俄罗斯应该同时和东方、西方做生意。
默里说，理想情况下确实如此，如果莫斯科的政权想要这个的话。他也承认，冷战结束后西方对待俄罗斯的方式有失妥当，没有给予应有的尊重。但这也无法为俄罗斯过去二十年的行为开脱。
对话里有一段关于“快点停火”的讨论，值得单独拎出来。默里说，急着促和会产生一个结构性偏差：你会向你能施压的人施压，而不会向施压不动的人施压。
美国可以对乌克兰施加巨大的外交、金融、情报和军事压力，也可以对普京施加相当的压力，但压泽连斯基容易得多。所以如果有人说“今天就得和平”，最可能的结果是，你压了那个最好压的人，达成一个能立刻止杀、但同时奖励侵略者、惩罚受害者的结果。极其丑陋，而且极其常见。（道格拉斯·默里）
弗里德曼接了一句：这也是派对上最无聊的那句真话，这里的捷径就是惩罚乌克兰，而你就是不能这么干。
默里说：那我们就继续当派对上无聊的人。
10月7日：从“概念”到几小时的空白
话题转到加沙，默里的语速和细节密度都变了。他写过一本关于这件事的书，去过现场，采访过幸存者、医生、士兵、被绑架者的家属。
2023年10月7日，哈马斯发动了一次旅级规模的进攻。他们炸开隔离墙，冲向最软的目标。纳哈尔奥兹（Nahal Oz）观察基地被迅速攻陷，然后是南部的集体农庄（kibbutz），那些住着和平主义者的、主张和巴勒斯坦邻居共存的小社区。屠杀、强奸、纵火、绑架。
他们的运气在于撞上了一场清晨的舞会。几百个年轻人在沙漠里跳舞，哈马斯用火箭筒、卡拉什尼科夫步枪、手榴弹和锤子冲进去。
他们最深推进到以色列境内二十公里，在奥法基姆（Ofakim）和斯德洛特（Sderot）这些城镇继续屠杀。
现在已经知道，原计划是真主党从北面做同样的事。真主党在24小时内就加入了战争，从黎巴嫩南部向以色列北部发射大量火箭弹。原计划是南北同时动手，在中部会合，把以色列拦腰绞死。
协同失败的原因，默里的判断是哈马斯不信任任何一条能通知真主党确切时间的通讯线路，因为都会被截获。德黑兰的伊朗革命政府，资助、训练、武装哈马斯和真主党的那一方，是知道计划的。
对哈马斯来说，这次行动已经相当接近成功。他们离目标还差得远，但他们比人们以为他们能做到的，逼近了很多。（道格拉斯·默里）
对以色列来说，这是建国以来最严重的情报和军事失败。默里认为原因有几层。
第一层是“概念”（the conception）。以色列安全和军事建制派多年来相信一个判断：哈马斯满足于腐败地治理加沙，往自己口袋里捞钱，住在卡塔尔当亿万富翁，像很多恐怖组织一样，意识形态还在，但会退居次要位置。
“概念”在这一天彻底崩塌，而且塌得很彻底。（道格拉斯·默里）
第二层是10月7日当天和之前的一系列具体失败。已经有不少人被追责，未来还会有更多。
但最让他难受的，是那些幸存者反复对他说的一句话：他们告诉孩子别怕，军队几分钟就到。
很多地方，军队好几个小时才到。（道格拉斯·默里）
他不想把责任全推给军队，因为有些单位反应极快。杜夫德万（Duvdevan）部队在屠杀开始后大约一小时到九十分钟就赶到了路口投入战斗。还有一些自行其是的人，违抗命令，意识到事情有多大，直接说“南边需要我们，走”，然后打了几个小时、几天。
但现场的复杂性超乎想象。哈马斯扒下死去以色列士兵的制服穿在身上，带着以色列制式的装备进来。
书里写了一位阿拉伯裔以色列穆斯林医生，他是联合哈扎拉（United Hatzalah）急救组织的成员。那天早上六点半他正要去医院换班，火箭弹先来，然后是全境入侵。他收到一条警报，说附近有车出了事故，就带上急救包出发。到了路口，他看到几个穿着士兵制服的人，他穿着哈扎拉的背心，对方开始朝他开火。
他当时脑子里只有一个念头：他妈的怎么回事？（道格拉斯·默里）
那是伪装成以色列士兵的哈马斯。他们把他当人肉盾牌，防止空中打击，最后开枪打了他，把他丢在那里。他活下来了。
还有一个女孩，她的父亲在舞会幸存者的聚会上接受了默里的采访。女儿在生命的最后时刻打电话给他，他安慰她说军队马上就到。她的男朋友头部中弹，躺在她腿上。他们设法上了一辆车，逃离了舞会现场，开到一个他们以为安全的社区。有人告诉他们待在原地，女儿说那是个警察，其实不是，那是穿着警察制服的哈马斯。她被杀死了。
辛瓦尔和那个救了他命的牙医
默里说，哈马斯其实很好理解，因为他们说得出自己的目标，而且他们基本按自己说的去做。
他举了叶海亚·辛瓦尔（Yahya al-Sinwar）的例子。辛瓦尔被普遍认为是10月7日的策划者。他在2000年代因在加沙杀害巴勒斯坦人而被关在以色列监狱，后来在换俘协议中获释，那次协议用一千多名巴勒斯坦囚犯换回了被绑架的以色列士兵吉拉德·沙利特（Gilad Shalit）。
在狱中，辛瓦尔和一位牙医有过多次谈话。这位牙医发现他长了脑瘤，把他送去医院，以色列医生切除了肿瘤，救了他的命。这位牙医后来把谈话内容讲给了《纽约时报》。
辛瓦尔在狱中说：现在你们以色列是强的，但总有一天你们会变弱，那时候我就来了。然后他就来了。（道格拉斯·默里）
关于哈马斯宪章，默里提醒了一件事。宪章里引用了那段圣训：末日不会到来，直到石头和树木开口说“穆斯林啊，我背后有个犹太人，来杀了他”。
他说自己经常注意到一种手法：人们会说哈马斯宪章不重要。这是一种障眼法，回到了之前那个话题，忘掉一切，只留下最重要的基本事实。
书里还有一个人物，薇薇安·西尔弗（Vivian Silver）。她是和平活动家，每个周末开车把加沙儿童送到以色列医院，处理那些加沙本地治不了的罕见疾病。她为以色列所有左翼和平组织工作过。10月7日之后一段时间，邻居们以为她被掳到加沙去了，有人做了她的被绑架者海报，几个和平组织呼吁哈马斯放人。后来发现她是在家里被活活烧死的，因为留下的 DNA 太少，很久才确认身份。
加沙周边那些社区，恰恰是那些最想和加沙人和平共处的人。哈马斯把地狱带给了他们。（道格拉斯·默里）
“比例原则”这笔账
弗里德曼请默里站在批评者的立场上，把“以色列做过头了”这个案子做到最强。
默里的回应从10月8日说起。那天以色列还没有做出任何回应，就有人开始说以色列必须“按比例”回应。
他承认战争法里确实有比例原则，但同时指出，世界对以色列的“比例”要求，实际上是要求双方的痛苦和死亡数量对等。他不认为有任何战争法规定，你杀了1200人、绑了250人，对方就可以照着做一遍。
然后他做了一个换算：以色列900万人口。把10月7日按美国人口比例放大，相当于美国在一天之内有44000人被杀、10000名公民被绑架。
没人能告诉我，如果这样的暴行发生在美国，美国不会动用一切必要手段去摧毁干这事的组织、把被绑的人救回来。（道格拉斯·默里）
弗里德曼在这个点上完全同意，同时补了另一面：美国确实会狠狠打回去，但美国的军工复合体和政客也可能把这件事做成伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争，那就不只是打回去，而是做了一件对所有人都有破坏性的事，包括美国自己的财政、美国的繁荣、整个地区的稳定。伊拉克和阿富汗并没有打败恐怖主义，很可能还制造了更多恐怖分子。
默里没有回避这个类比。他说以色列战后宣布的两个目标，救回人质和摧毁哈马斯，很多人说只能做到一个。他认为以色列在两个方向上都走了很远，哈马斯没有被完全摧毁，但被严重削弱，领导层几乎全部被击毙，第二层领导层也几乎全没了。
他强调自己看到的比大多数外部观察者多。战争初期有一些方案没有执行，比如直接冲进希法（Shifa）医院大院，那地方名义上是医院，至少也是哈马斯的指挥总部。有一个快速突袭的计划被搁置了，因为各方死亡人数会太高。以色列在初期确实克制了。
然后他讲加沙的特殊困难。那是一个高度建成、人口稠密的地区。
顺便说一句，那些轻率地指责以色列搞种族灭绝的人，从来不提一个事实：2005年以色列撤出之后，加沙人口暴涨，几乎翻了一倍。（道格拉斯·默里）
真正的困难在于哈马斯完全不按规则来，而且是把战争法完全反过来用。你不能把军队伪装成平民，你不能把医院当作军事基地，你不能把学校和礼拜场所当作作战中心。哈马斯全都干，而且一直这么干，原因很简单：对哈马斯来说，这套打法是买一送一。他们可以在任何地方作战，以色列只要在任何地方还手，他们就可以说这是战争罪。
默里提到哈马斯从2005年起挖的那套地下隧道网。他在书里引了一位哈马斯领导人的采访原话：隧道是给他们自己用的，存放武器、保护战斗人员、关押人质。
一个国家为它的公民建防空洞，一个政府为它的炸弹建防空洞。这两者之间的差别，在我看来是天壤之别。（道格拉斯·默里）
关于钱，默里说得更直白。每一个已经死掉的哈马斯领导人，死的时候都是亿万富翁，单位是十亿美元。卡塔尔的钱、美国纳税人的钱、欧洲纳税人的钱，全部变成了恐怖基础设施。跟他一起在前线的士兵估计，加沙每第二到第三栋房子里都藏着武器、炸弹、火箭筒、步枪和隧道入口。
这里他提到一个他认为的深层悲剧：2005年以色列撤出加沙，无论你对这个决定怎么看，那本来是一个机会。加沙可以变成一个有活力的实体，一个繁荣的巴勒斯坦国。哈马斯像之前的巴解组织一样，选择了摧毁以色列，而不是建设巴勒斯坦。
十八年
弗里德曼问起加沙平民的责任。默里说，他们选了哈马斯。布什政府2005年之后推动加沙选举是个很不明智的决定，但哈马斯确实是被选上去的，然后在2007年把主要对手法塔赫从屋顶扔下去、把尸体绑在摩托车后面拖着游街，从此完全控制加沙。
他说，谈这个话题容易被指责为支持集体惩罚，但有一个事实应该被记住：哈马斯有整整18年时间治理加沙。18年，是一个孩子从出生到完成正规教育的全部时间。
18年里，他们本可以培养出一代对自家人、对社会、对邻居、对世界有用的加沙年轻人。他们没有。他们花了18年把加沙的孩子灌输进一个死亡邪教，灌输进一种种族灭绝式的仇恨。这对以色列人显然最危险，但对加沙人自己显然也是灾难。（道格拉斯·默里）
他提到2014年进过加沙的士兵，也提到2003年以来参与过几轮作战的士兵，说法一致：加沙人口的激进化程度显著上升。他说得很平淡：普通加沙家庭里阿拉伯语版《我的奋斗》的数量，《锡安长老会纪要》的数量。
关于“集体惩罚”的指控，默里的定义是：集体惩罚是无目的地向平民区投弹，是地毯式轰炸。他说以色列空军和国防军从10月7日以来做的不是这个，是逐屋作战，是针对恐怖组织的战争。加沙被毁得很惨，没剩几栋楼，但这不是狂轰滥炸的结果。
他补了一个细节：没有一个他采访过的、被释放的人质，遇到过任何一个表现出哪怕一丁点人道善意的加沙巴勒斯坦人。
你看10月7日的录像，哈马斯自己拍的，他们把年轻的犹太女性带进加沙。那些卡车、摩托车没有被震惊的加沙平民拦下，没人问“你们为什么带着一个被割断脚筋的以色列女孩，为什么把她带到这儿来”。全都是庆祝。还有人质从关押他们的民宅逃出来，立刻被遇到的居民送回去。（道格拉斯·默里）
弗里德曼在这里做了一个重要的平衡。他说自己不愿意把邪恶投射到整个民众身上。庆祝有好几种解释：可能是深度灌输下的仇恨，也可能是一种绝望中的自我说服，你得说服自己站在争取自由这一边，才能给自己一个理由，在极端恶劣的条件下用这种方式抗争。
默里的回答是：你不需要投射，你只需要听他们自己的话。他引了书里第一章的那段录音，一个年轻人闯进以色列南部某个社区，打电话回家。
“爸，打开 WhatsApp，我给你看。我亲手杀了10个犹太人。哦，父亲，你儿子亲手杀了10个犹太人。”他父亲在那边问“你在哪儿，你在哪儿”，他说“我要给你看，爸，我要给你看，我亲手杀了犹太人，你儿子。让妈妈接电话”。妈妈接了，兄弟接了。（道格拉斯·默里）
弗里德曼承认这些电话录音独特地恐怖，同时指出他听过乌克兰士兵打给父母的电话、俄罗斯士兵打给父母的电话，性质类似，战争里有一种把对方非人化的机制。
默里的反驳是具体的：闯进一个18岁女性的家，在她家的地板上杀死她，拍下她最后的尸体，然后用她的手机、她的 Instagram 账号发给她的所有朋友。他说，他很怀疑哪怕是最凶的俄罗斯士兵，会打电话回莫斯科说“妈，你不敢相信我有多走运，我强奸并杀死了这个18岁女孩”。这在战争里都算罕见。
我认为世界上确实存在恶这种力量，它可以降临，可以被人使用。很难找到一种非神学的方式来谈这件事。但10月7日哈马斯所做的那些事，除了用恶这个词，没有别的描述。（道格拉斯·默里）
为什么全世界的怒火都指向这一个人
谈到内塔尼亚胡，弗里德曼把问题摆得很直：很多人把“邪恶”这个词用在哈马斯身上很犹豫，用在内塔尼亚胡身上却很积极。默里的回应是，这个不对称本身就说明了一些东西。
他先给了内塔尼亚胡最严厉的批评，而且这份批评来自以色列内部：10月7日发生在他的任上。1973年赎罪日战争之后，果尔达·梅厄（Golda Meir）承担了政治后果，一位相当杰出的总理，一位了不起的女性，但入侵发生在她的任上，她就得接下这一笔。公平的批评者会永远拿这件事问责内塔尼亚胡。
第二条批评是司法改革。10月7日之前的一年，以色列社会因为这件事撕裂，特拉维夫和其他城市每个周末都有示威，警察周复一周加班维持秩序，示威有时会失控，有时会暴力。默里说他个人认为司法改革有它的道理，但司法改革属于以色列内政的细分议题，重点在于：如果你看到一件事把你的国家撕裂到这个程度，是不是应该停一停？
有一种说法是，10月7日的动机之一，正是哈马斯和它在卡塔尔、伊朗的支持者看到了以色列社会的分裂。相当一部分人口每周上街，堵高速，停服务。辛瓦尔在狱中说的那句话在这里又出现了一次：总有一天你会变弱，那时候我就动手。
也有反过来的论据：10月7日的计划在司法改革开始之前就已经在制定。默里承认这些角度都能成立，然后把话收回来：他采访过以色列几乎所有政治领导人，从右到左，“我不认为他们中任何一个人会对10月7日做出和他不同的回应”。
然后是那个更大的问题。全世界有那么多人恨他，8到9百万人口的国家，总理成了全球性的仇恨对象。默里说这件事很奇怪，值得追问。
他在这里插了一段。人们谈美国过去三十年外交政策的失败，有一种人第一时间会提保罗·沃尔福威茨（Paul Wolfowitz），而且会以那种语气问：“沃尔福威茨？你是说小布什手下那个国防部副部长？你觉得是他主导了一切？”默里引了马克·斯坦（Mark Steyn）的一句玩笑：他的姓以一头讨厌的动物开头，以一个犹太人的身份结尾。
我认为这里有非常深的东西在起作用。（道格拉斯·默里）
内塔尼亚胡的辩护词是这样的：他把捍卫犹太人唯一的家园视为自己的历史使命，这是他一生的事业。从这个角度看，他是历史性的领导人。他多年来警告世界注意德黑兰毛拉的威胁，警告伊朗革命政权在伊拉克、黎巴嫩、叙利亚、也门的扩张。10月7日之后，他把一组极其困难的挑战撑住了，把国际压力控制在可承受的范围内，并且推进了他一开始宣布的两个战争目标。
默里说，听到人质消息时他的第一反应是他们都死了，永远见不到了，很多以色列人也是这个态度。但大多数人质回来了。哈马斯没有被完全摧毁，但离2023年11月的战力已经很远，领导层几乎全灭，第二层也几乎全灭。
他提到2024年9月那一串行动：以色列空军一天之内摧毁了叙利亚空军全部装备，因为不想让它落到叙利亚新政府手里的圣战分子手上。默里说，这条新闻当天在 BBC 网站上排第四。真主党领导层全灭，第二第三层全部死亡或重伤。伊朗的“劳斯莱斯”被摧毁。
这些是非常重大的军事成就，在我看来，这是对真主党、哈马斯以及其他伊朗代理人试图摧毁犹太国的正义回应。（道格拉斯·默里）
一面镜子
弗里德曼把话题引向那个更深的问题：为什么世界上有这么多对犹太人的仇恨？
默里的第一个答案是：这是懒惰和轻信的人最容易找到的答案。世界上为什么会有随机、不公、不幸？最低成本、最低分辨率的解释就是，有一小撮人在背后操纵一切。
弗里德曼把这个冲动推到个人层面：为什么路上堵车？为什么妻子离开我？为什么我没拿到那份工作？总得有人挡着我。
默里接着讲犹太人为什么成为那个顺手的目标。人数少，在特定时期、特定领域里成就显著超出比例。他说这不是完整解释。犹太人涉足银行业有它的历史原因，但苏格兰人涉足银行业也有历史原因，到今天没什么人把国际金融的问题全怪到苏格兰人头上。
然后他给出他认为最有解释力的那段。他引了瓦西里·格罗斯曼（Vasily Grossman）《生活与命运》里的一段。格罗斯曼说，反犹主义你在哪里都能遇到，在科学院，在孩子们院子里玩的游戏里。但它告诉你的是提出指控的那个人，不是犹太人。
告诉我你指控犹太人什么，我就告诉你你自己犯了什么罪。（瓦西里·格罗斯曼，默里在书中引用并试图推广这句话）
默里把这句格言一条一条套上去。伊朗革命政府指控以色列是殖民政权，而伊朗革命政府在我们这一代人的时间里一直在殖民中东。土耳其政府指控犹太国家犯下占领罪，而土耳其从1970年代起占领着半个塞浦路斯，塞浦路斯是欧盟成员国，土耳其是北约成员国。
支持哈马斯的人说以色列犯下无差别杀戮。默里的回应是：哈马斯，10月7日你们在干什么？网上有一批人反复声称以色列士兵会强奸巴勒斯坦人，在监狱里、在战场上、在医院里，这种说法周期性爆发。默里说，2016年之后你们说“相信所有女性”，10月7日之后你们说相信所有女性，除了那些说自己被强奸、说看到朋友被强奸的犹太女性，然后你们转过头说“看，犹太人都是强奸犯”。
你一直在为强奸犯摇旗呐喊，然后去指控犹太人强奸。这套逻辑怎么用都成立，怎么用都管用。（道格拉斯·默里）
他把这一层和他上一本书《西方之战》（The War on the West）连起来。那本书讲的是西方历史被一种极不公平、极不准确的框架重新评估，美国的原罪被定为奴隶制。默里当时提出的问题是：这套框架最要命的地方在于，它没有出口。就算它是真的，你也没法做什么。你18世纪的祖先拥有过奴隶，你打算怎么办？没有机制可以宽恕，也没有机制可以被宽恕，因为你没做那件事，也没有活人可以接受你的道歉。
10月7日之后，他看到一个出口出现了。
我被告知，我来自一个犯下定居者殖民主义、白人至上、种族灭绝、种族清洗的社会。我被放进了一个无法脱身的道德负担里，我无法请求任何人的宽恕，也没有人能宽恕我。但是，啊，这里有一个国家，我可以在此时此地指控它犯下所有这些事，把我的能量、我的负担全部卸到它身上，而且我可能真的能让它结束，从而解脱自己。（道格拉斯·默里）
他把格罗斯曼那句话改了一下：这一次，告诉我你指控犹太人什么，我就告诉你，你被告知自己犯了什么。
弗里德曼在这里提了一个观察：反犹内容在网上的互动量极高。他形容自己像外星人观察地球，看这些内容是危险的，还是一群喷子和流量贩子在 cosplay 纳粹，图个“让自由派破防”的乐子。
默里说两者都有，而且更多。禁忌被打破本身有快感，有些人在 Holocaust 教育里长大，听腻了，腻了之后往奇怪的方向走。但这些都是细节。真正的事情是反犹主义回来了，而且有一类人正乐在其中。
他给了一个判定标准，很硬：如果你对叙利亚被杀的穆斯林毫无兴趣，对苏丹的种族灭绝毫无兴趣，对也门几十万人被杀毫无兴趣，但10月8日你就站在街上举着牌子攻击以色列，对不起，你就是反犹主义者。你可能自己不知道，但那就是驱动你的东西。
他补了一句关于“两国方案”的：有一批半聪明的人会说，问题就是以色列得给巴勒斯坦人一个国家，给了之后地区的问题、世界的问题都能解决。这个说法本身就荒谬。巴勒斯坦人在加沙或者约旦河西岸再拿一个国家，凭什么也门的经济会起飞？凭什么德黑兰的毛拉会给女性平权？最可能的结果只是多一个由德黑兰代理人掌控的失败阿拉伯国家，这已经是最好的情况。连萨尔曼·鲁什迪（Salman Rushdie）这样一辈子支持巴勒斯坦事业的人都说，如果巴勒斯坦再得到一个国家，最好的情况也只是伊朗政权的又一条战线。
“我爱死亡，胜过你们爱生命”
弗里德曼提到伊朗：他的好朋友里有伊朗人，他认识的每一个伊朗人都反对这个政权，受过良好教育，见多识广，而1979年以来的政权把这些都锁住了。这种反差让他困惑。
默里的新书开头就写了一个航班：1979年，霍梅尼从巴黎飞回德黑兰。
我认为这是20世纪最糟糕的两趟旅程之一。（道格拉斯·默里）
另一趟是列宁坐火车到彼得格勒的芬兰车站。默里开玩笑说自己真是个搞交通的，等着看他那本“十大旅程”的书。
他说这趟航班把最激进形式的什叶派伊斯兰带进了德黑兰，带进了伊朗，是现代史上的一大悲剧。他有一位已经过世的密友，在革命前的伊朗长大，喜欢国王，她父亲在国王被推翻前是一位阿亚图拉。所有人对他都有批评，但你看到他之后来的是什么。
从这位朋友和其他人身上，他学到两件事。第一是保守主义的核心洞察：事情总能更糟。永远别说已经到底了，你可能有一个关着几百上千政治犯的国王，但你也可能有霍梅尼把所有这些人屠杀干净，包括那些曾经帮他上台的共产党人和工会成员，他们在反对国王时对他很有用，直到他不需要他们了。
第二件事更难让西方心态接受：世上确实存在狂热的信仰，真正的、意识形态和宗教意义上的狂热。西方很容易忘掉这一点，因为我们很久没见过了，我们只在自己的社会里听到很远的回声，而且我们对这些回声高度敏感。
那么为什么这个政权从1979年撑到现在？默里引了索尔仁尼琴在《古拉格群岛》里的那段：当我们听到楼梯上的脚步声，听到敲的是邻居的门，知道邻居被抓走了，我们为什么没有阻止？
人们没有意识到，尽管有那些说辞，一切都变了，如果另一个人可能会杀了你。2009年伊朗绿色运动起来的时候，为什么被镇压下去了？因为巴斯基民兵会朝你头上开枪，会把你拖进监狱，就像他们对伊朗学生做的那样，用瓶子强奸你，然后杀死你。哪怕只做一点点，也足以让社会其余部分记住，不要再来一次。（道格拉斯·默里）
他说我们在电影里知道这件事会发生，但太少人理解德黑兰那样的政权是以这种方式、在最大规模上、以终极的残暴来运作的，这就是它们保持权力的方式。
然后是那段他反复回到的对话。1979年，奥里亚娜·法拉奇（Oriana Fallaci）采访霍梅尼，是极少数做到这一点的西方记者之一。她说，街上这些人，这场运动，你开启的这场革命，是被仇恨驱动的，全是仇恨。
霍梅尼说：不，不，是爱。是爱。
你怎么向一个西方人的头脑解释，有些人被这种自称爱的仇恨所驱动？（道格拉斯·默里）
他提到西班牙哲学家米格尔·德·乌纳穆诺（Miguel de Unamuno）。1930年代，乌纳穆诺在萨拉曼卡大学面对一群已经陷入长枪党意识形态的年轻学生，他试图捍卫自己一生的原则，学生们在他面前齐声高喊：“Viva la Muerte！”死亡万岁。
那些在佛朗哥时代的西班牙高喊死亡万岁的年轻人，今天有他们的对应物。他们就是那些用“我们爱死亡胜过你们爱生命”来嘲讽美国人、西方人、以色列人的人。（道格拉斯·默里）
这句话是这期播客的开场白，也是它的落点。默里说，他之所以反复回到它，是因为它几乎无法被装进现代人的脑子里。如果你的整个存在建立在这个前提上，你就是世界的危险源。这是作恶的极好基础。
怎么采访一个你可能讨厌的世界领导人
谈话转向方法论。弗里德曼说他有机会采访几位世界领导人，包括内塔尼亚胡，可能还有普京。他想请教默里：怎么采访这种人？
默里的回答从压力说起。每一次这样的采访都有重量，因为你会收到一批人的要求：“你必须问他这个，你不能不提这个。”这非常难办，因为对政治人物的采访不该是仰视的，但也不能变成无休止的审问。你不是检察官，对方也不必是回答你的罪犯。
我注意到很多人带着一张问题清单去采访世界领导人，然后在某个时刻对方可以直接说：我不需要这个。批评你的人没意识到，你就是不能那么做。（道格拉斯·默里）
他引了罗宾·戴（Robin Day）评价杰里米·帕克斯曼（Jeremy Paxman）的一段话。罗宾·戴自己也很擅长对政客无礼，但很讲究分寸。他说1990年代之后政治采访的新路子有个问题：如果你认为对面那个人是骗子，你应该让他自己暴露出他是骗子，别直接叫他骗子。
当面叫一个人骗子，可能让电视机前的观众很爽，但它什么也没做，它实际上什么也没揭示出来。如果一个人是骗子，而且他自己暴露了，那是另一回事。（道格拉斯·默里）
弗里德曼补充了自己的做法。他说自己从不做脚本化的采访，对方团队没有权力决定他问什么。有时候团队会礼貌地暗示某个话题，他会礼貌地道谢、微笑，但那不代表他得照办。他说这种事在世界领导人那里反而少，在 CEO 那里多，因为 CEO 有公关团队。
默里说，还有一件批评者不会想到的事：人生很长。你不需要因为网上某个蠢货的要求就把一切都炸掉。他给了一条他认为算是超能力的东西：
识别出那些你在乎他们意见的人，只在乎他们的意见，别人的都不重要，然后守住你自己的那束光。（道格拉斯·默里）
他提到丘吉尔1940年为张伯伦写的悼词。丘吉尔刚当上首相，张伯伦是他的重要政治对手，他完全可以利用这个机会说：你们看，我早就说过，张伯伦根本不知道自己在干什么，他把我们带进了这摊烂摊子，你们早该听我的。那是个好时机，可以赢一把。
丘吉尔没有这么做。他谈的是人在世上行事有多难，以及怎样才能做成。他整篇悼词里没有提希特勒的名字。他说张伯伦的缺点是什么？是渴望人类和平，是追求和平，而他的不幸在于，他被一个非常邪恶的人引入了歧途。
然后是那段默里几乎背下来的话：
人无法预见或预测事件展开的进程，这对人是幸事，否则生活将难以忍受。在一个阶段，人们似乎是对的，在另一个阶段，他们被证明是错的，然后一套不同的价值尺度浮现出来。这一切的价值何在？一个人唯一的向导是他的良知，唯一的盾牌是他的记忆、他的正直，以及他行动的真诚。不管命运如何摆布，只要你有这面盾牌护卫，你就始终行进在荣誉的行列中。（温斯顿·丘吉尔，默里引述）
前线给人的那种可怕的清晰
最后一段，弗里德曼问默里：你写了这么多阴暗的东西，人群的疯狂、地缘政治的疯狂、战争的疯狂，当阳光穿过云层，默里脸上露出笑容的时候，那个笑容的来源是什么？
默里说，来源无穷无尽。最让他受鼓舞的是聪明的年轻人。他前不久在基辅，被邀请去大学给学生演讲，尽管他们处境艰难，跟一屋子学生讲话、结束后留下来尽可能多地回答问题、听他们讲自己的生活、想做什么，这本身就是最好的事。你会想起自己在这个年纪是什么样子，有多傻，会犯多少错，有多少东西要学，会有多享受这个过程。
弗里德曼问：你亲眼看了这么多战争，乌克兰、以色列，这改变你了吗？有没有让那团温暖和光变暗？
默里说，这个问题很难回答，他自己也不知道，每天都不同。
弗里德曼追问：所以有时候会有一种沉重？
默里说：当然，有时候。
问他后不后悔去了那么多次前线？
他说不后悔。对写作者来说，战争几乎是最好的题材，因为你在极端状态下看到生命。这很奇怪，但这是真的。死亡摆在你面前的时候，它给一切投下一种可怕的清晰。你会看到人如何爱，有时甚至笑得更多。蒙田有一篇随笔一直在他脑子里，叫《为什么我们会为同一件事又哭又笑》。一切都变得更强烈，你看到人最好的部分和最坏的部分，它们挨在一起。
弗里德曼说他也和乌克兰前线的士兵打过交道，平民生活里那些客套、那些废话全被剥掉了，某种意义上是更诚实的状态。
默里说是的，完全同意。他讲了个故事，2022年他跟几个乌克兰士兵在一起，他们想抽烟，但酒店里不许抽，他们就走到外面，默里陪着出去，外面正落火箭弹。他跟士兵说：不觉得很奇怪吗，对二手烟的恐惧居然压过了这个。
弗里德曼说，在前线，这个笑话的滋味特别好，你可以为这个笑一整天。生活的荒诞就摆在那儿，那么诚实，那么美。这也是为什么很多士兵被战争摧毁了，却也会想念它。
完全正确。每个人都说过，我从没觉得自己这么活过，我不会拿它换任何东西。（道格拉斯·默里）
可以立刻做的几件事
这期对话信息密度很高，但真正能拿走的，是几个判断工具。
- 看一个人指控谁，比看他支持谁更能看清他。格罗斯曼那句“告诉我你指控犹太人什么，我就告诉你你犯了什么罪”，可以扩展到大多数公共指控上。伊朗指控以色列殖民，土耳其指控以色列占领，支持哈马斯的账号指控以色列无差别杀戮。对照一下指控者自己的行为记录，很多话会自动失效。
- 警惕“最低分辨率的解释”。所有问题都归结到一小撮人身上的叙事，不管是犹太人、深层政府还是某个家族，共同点是它省掉了理解的成本。判断标准很简单：这个解释能不能被证伪？它有没有为“我可能是错的”留位置？
- 把“明显的事实”定期说一遍，哪怕它在派对上很无聊。默里引的那个二战起源辩论场景值得记住：一屋子人陷在波兰铁矿石的细节里，主持人问安德鲁·罗伯茨二战为什么开始，他回答“因为希特勒入侵了波兰”。重要的东西是唯一会被忘掉的东西。
- 去现场，或者至少和长期住在那里的人面对面聊。默里说自己不后悔去前线的理由之一是，人们一定会告诉你你亲眼看到的事情没有发生，提前见过一次，能帮你扛住那一刻。反过来，只靠二手信息形成的判断，通常撑不过一次反驳。
- 如果你是做采访、做内容的人，先分清“让对方暴露”和“替自己出气”。当面叫一个人骗子，满足的是屏幕前的观众，揭示不了任何东西。真正有价值的问题，是对方没有准备好、答完之后自己会露出破绽的那一个问题。
- 对“促和”的速度保持怀疑。急着结束一场战争的谈判，压力总会先落在最好压的那一方身上。看到一份停火方案，先问一句：这份协议奖励的是谁，惩罚的是谁。如果答案是奖励侵略者、惩罚受害者，那它只是把战争延期。
- 把你在乎意见的人缩短到能数得过来的数量。默里那句“一亿个敌人不重要”，前提是你清楚自己那束光是什么。守不住它，就会被舆论的浪头推着走；守住了，别人怎么说都只是背景噪音。
…
……
00:00 end up chanting in front of him, “Viva la Muerte.
最后在他面前高喊“死亡万岁”。
Long-lived death.” They have their counterparts today.
长生不死。”他们今天有他们的对手。
They are the people who taunt Americans, Westerners, Israelis, and others with lines like, “We love death more than you love live.”
他们是用“我们热爱死亡胜过你们热爱生活”之类的话来嘲讽美国人、西方人、以色列人和其他人的人。
The following is a conversation with Douglas Murray, author of the War in the West, the Madness of Crowds and his new book On Democracies and Death Cults.
以下是与道格拉斯·默里（Douglas Murray）的对话，他是《西方战争》、《人群的疯狂》及其新书《论民主与死亡邪教》的作者。
00:24 We talk about Russia and Ukraine and about Israel and Gaza.
我们谈论俄罗斯和乌克兰以及以色列和加沙。
Douglas has very strong views on these topics, and he defends them brilliantly and fearlessly.
道格拉斯对这些话题有着非常强烈的观点，并且他出色而无所畏惧地捍卫了它们。
As I always try to do for all topics, I will also talk to people who have different views from Douglas, including the next episode of this podcast.
正如我一直尝试针对所有主题所做的那样，我还将与与道格拉斯有不同观点的人交谈，包括本播客的下一集。
We live in an era of online discourse where grifters, drama farmers, liars, bots, sycophants, and sociopaths roam the vast beautiful dark land of the internet.
我们生活在一个网络言论的时代，骗子、戏剧农民、骗子、机器人、阿谀奉承者和反社会者在互联网广阔而美丽的黑暗土地上漫游。
It’s hard to know who to trust.
很难知道该信任谁。
I believe no one is in possession of the entire truth, but some are more correct than others.
我相信没有人掌握全部真相，但有些人比其他人更正确。
Some are insightful and some are delusional.
有些是有洞察力的，有些是妄想的。
The problem is it’s hard to tell which is which unless you use your mind with intellectual humility and with rigor.
问题是，除非你以谦虚和严谨的态度运用你的思想，否则很难区分哪个是哪个。
01:34 I recommend you listen to many sources who disagree with each other and tried to pick up wisdom from each.
我建议您听取许多彼此不同意见的消息来源，并尝试从每个消息来源中汲取智慧。
Also, I recommend you visit the places in question as Douglas has, as I have, or at least talk face-to-face with people who have spent most of their lives living there.
另外，我建议你像道格拉斯和我一样去参观那些有问题的地方，或者至少与那些在那里度过了大半生的人面对面交谈。
Whether it’s Israel, Palestine, Ukraine, or Russia.
无论是以色列、巴勒斯坦、乌克兰还是俄罗斯。
Let’s try together to not be cogs in the machine of outrage, and instead to reach toward reason and compassion.
让我们共同努力，不要成为愤怒机器上的齿轮，而是走向理性和同情心。
There is no Hitler, Stalin, or Mao on the world stage today.
今天的世界舞台上没有希特勒、斯大林或毛泽东。
Plus, there are thousands of nuclear weapons ready to fire.
此外，还有数千枚核武器随时待命。
Human civilization hangs in the balance.
人类文明岌岌可危。
The 21st century is a new geopolitical puzzle, all of us are tasked with solving.
21世纪是一个新的地缘政治难题，我们所有人都有责任去解决。
Let’s not mess it up.
我们不要把事情搞砸了。
This is the Lex Fridman podcast.
这是莱克斯·弗里德曼播客。
To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description.
为了支持它，请在说明中查看我们的赞助商。
And now, dear friends, here’s Douglas Murray.
现在，亲爱的朋友们，这是道格拉斯·默里。
02:38 What have you understood about the war in Ukraine from your visits there?
通过访问乌克兰，您对乌克兰战争有何了解？
Just looking at the big picture of your understanding of the invasion of February 24th, 2022, and the war in the three years since?
仅仅看一下你对2022年2月24日入侵以及此后三年战争的了解的大局？
I mean, several things has political angles, which are forever changing.
我的意思是，有些事情具有政治角度，而且永远在变化。
02:50 But on the human level, as you know, if you visit troops, frontline troops, you have that admiration for people defending their country, defending their homes, defending their families.
但在人的层面上，如你所知，如果你参观部队、前线部队，你会对保卫国家、保卫家园、保卫家人的人们怀有钦佩之情。
Struck by the way in which that is at a remove from the sort of political noise and the media noise and much more.
令人震惊的是，这种方式远离政治噪音和媒体噪音等等。
It’s very easy to get caught up in the to’s and fro’s of today’s news, but that to my mind is that’s the single thing that struck me most in my visits there.
人们很容易被今天的新闻所吸引，但在我看来，这是我访问那里时印象最深的一件事。
Is just the people I’ve met who are fighting for a cause, which at that level is unavoidable, undeniable.
就是我遇到的那些为某种事业而奋斗的人，在这个层面上，这是不可避免的，不可否认的。
So, the thing that struck you that’s different from the media turmoil is just the reality of war?
那么，与媒体的喧嚣不同，让你震惊的就是战争的现实吗？
Yeah, of course.
是的，当然。
03:52 I mean, people who have either lived under Russian occupation from invading armies and then come back out into the world, having been liberated as in late 2022.
我的意思是，那些曾经生活在俄罗斯入侵军队占领下的人们，然后又回到了现实世界，并于 2022 年底获得了解放。
Or the people now organized most recently there in recent weeks, who were just getting on with their job as soldiers whilst the world was talking about them.
或者最近几周最近在那里组织起来的人们，他们刚刚开始作为士兵的工作，而全世界都在谈论他们。
When were you there early on in this escalated war of ’22?
你什么时候参与了 22 年这场不断升级的战争？
Yes, first time was, I was with the Ukrainian Armed Forces when they retook Kherson, and I was back in recent weeks.
是的，第一次是，当乌克兰武装部队夺回赫尔松时，我和他们在一起，最近几周我又回来了。
04:25 And was there when the Trump-Zelensky blow up happened.
当特朗普和泽伦斯基爆发冲突时他也在场。
In fact, I was in a Ukrainian dugout at the front lines when I was watching it.
事实上，当我观看比赛时，我正在前线的乌克兰防空洞里。
How’s the morale?
士气如何？
04:45 How’s the way the content of the conversations you’ve heard different from the two visits separated by, I guess, two years?
我想，您所听到的谈话内容与相隔两年的两次访问有何不同？
One level, I mean, nothing has changed much.
我的意思是，在某一层面上，一切都没有太大改变。
04:58 It is not a total standoff because intermittently each side gains territory from the others.
这并不是一场彻底的对峙，因为双方都间歇性地从对方手中夺取领土。
I mean, there’d been no very significant military gains by either side in the interim period.
我的意思是，在过渡时期双方都没有取得非常重大的军事进展。
I think my experience of the soldiers, the people of Ukraine early on in the war, there’s a intense optimism about the outcomes of the war.
我认为，根据战争初期乌克兰士兵和人民的经历，人们对战争的结果抱有强烈的乐观态度。
05:18 There’s a sense that they’re going to win.
有一种他们会赢的感觉。
And the definition of what win means was like, all the territory is going to be one back.
胜利的定义是，所有领土都将被逆转。
Yeah, I certainly on the front lines facing Crimea was became quite familiar with people who thought that the Ukrainians in late 2022 would even be able to get Crimea back.
是的，我在面对克里米亚的前线确实非常熟悉那些认为乌克兰人甚至能够在 2022 年底夺回克里米亚的人。
05:41 And that struck me even at the time, and I thought that that was an overreach.
甚至在当时我就震惊了，我认为这是一种过分的行为。
And now, I think the people, the soldiers, at least in my experience when I visited the second time, are more exhausted.
现在，我认为人民、士兵们，至少从我第二次访问时的经验来看，更加疲惫不堪。
05:57 The morale, the dreams, the certainty of victory has maybe faded from the forefront of their minds.
士气、梦想和胜利的确定性可能已经从他们的脑海中消失了。
Well, three years of war will tire out anyone.
好吧，三年的战争会让任何人疲惫不堪。
What did you think of the blow up between Zelensky and Trump as you’re sitting there in the dugout?
当你坐在休息室里时，你对泽连斯基和特朗普之间的争吵有何看法？
Well, it was a very disturbing place to watch it from, perhaps anywhere would’ve been.
嗯，从那里观看它是一个非常令人不安的地方，也许在任何地方都会如此。
06:31 And obviously, it was a meeting that shouldn’t have happened.
显然，这是一次不应该发生的会议。
It was far too early.
还太早了。
Why do you think so?
你为什么这么认为？
06:45 There’s not enough actual pathways to peace on the table?
桌面上没有足够的实际和平途径吗？
Well, I think the mineral deal, I mean, I love the fact that everyone’s now an expert in Eastern Ukrainian mineral deposits, but-
好吧，我认为矿产交易，我的意思是，我喜欢这样一个事实，即每个人现在都是乌克兰东部矿藏的专家，但是-
I think as I’ve learned, and we’ll talk about Israel and Palestine, I’m learning that everybody’s an expert on geopolitics and the history of war on the internet.
我认为，据我所知，我们将讨论以色列和巴勒斯坦，我了解到每个人都是互联网上的地缘政治和战争史专家。
And now mineral deposits, obviously.
显然，现在还有矿藏。
Yes.
是的。
I’m really speaking of the edge of my mineral deposit knowledge here.
我在这里真正谈论的是我的矿藏知识的边缘。
07:09 But no, from what I could see the deal that the American administration was trying to get the Ukrainian government to sign, it was too early to force.
但不，从我所看到的美国政府试图让乌克兰政府签署的协议来看，现在强制执行还为时过早。
The Ukrainians were ready to sign a deal, but were obviously under intense pressure.
乌克兰人已准备好签署协议，但显然面临着巨大的压力。
And I think certainly, Zelensky actually wasn’t expecting to go until pretty much the day before, was obviously visibly tired and exhausted.
我当然认为，泽伦斯基实际上直到前一天才打算去，显然他很累，筋疲力尽。
Again, as you are after that amount of pressure for that long time.
再说一次，因为你在很长一段时间内都在追求那么大的压力。
I mean, the thing that struck me, and I said this in my column, the New York Post from there, that the thing that struck me was I said to some of the soldiers I was with, what do you make of this?
我的意思是，令我震惊的事情，我在《纽约邮报》的专栏中说过，令我震惊的是我对与我在一起的一些士兵说，你对此有何看法？
And one of them just said to me, “Well, we’re advised not to follow too closely the ins and outs of the politics of this,” but of course everyone has Instagram or scrolls and among dog pictures and the hot women or whatever is what happened in the Oval.
其中一个人只是对我说，“好吧，建议我们不要太关注政治的来龙去脉，”但当然每个人都有 Instagram 或滚动条以及狗照片和辣妹或椭圆形中发生的任何事情。
But what struck me was this same guy and saying, “I’ve got a job to do.”
但令我震惊的是同一个人说：“我有工作要做。”
Right.
正确的。
08:30 And there’s a clarity and a wisdom to that.
这是一个清晰和智慧的想法。
But your job is bigger than that, right?
但你的工作比这更重要，对吧？
Is to understand the politics as well.
也是要懂政治。
And what do you think about the politics of that moment?
您对当时的政治有何看法？
Because that was a real opportunity to come together and make progress on peace, right?
因为这是一个真正的机会，让我们能够走到一起，在和平方面取得进展，对吗？
And by all accounts was not a successful step forward.
从各方面来看，这并不是一个成功的进步。
I don’t think by any account, it was a successful step forward.
我不认为这是向前迈出的成功一步。
08:59 Unless to some extent it was a play, from DC to say to Putin, “Look, we doffed off Zelensky and now give us something.” That’s the only remedial idea I have about what might have been behind it.
除非在某种程度上这是一场戏剧，华盛顿特区对普京说：“看，我们摆脱了泽伦斯基，现在给我们一些东西。”这是我对背后可能发生的事情唯一的补救想法。
But I think it was just one of those extremely, I mean, just awful political moments.
但我认为这只是那些极其糟糕的政治时刻之一。
Zelensky was obviously deeply irritated by the interpretation of the war that he was hearing from Washington.
泽伦斯基显然对他从华盛顿听到的对战争的解释深感恼怒。
It was only a week after the Trump comments about Zelensky being a dictator, and people and the administration implying that Ukraine has started the war.
就在特朗普发表有关泽伦斯基是独裁者的评论以及人民和政府暗示乌克兰已经发动战争之后仅一周。
And I think that must be for Zelensky, a pretty Alice in Wonderland situation to be in.
我认为这一定是泽伦斯基的处境，就像爱丽丝梦游仙境一样。
And I had significant sympathy for him in finding it bewildering because it would be bewildering.
我非常同情他认为这令人困惑，因为这会令人困惑。
I think the sad thing to me also on the mundane details of that meeting and just the unfortunate way that meetings happen, I think it’s true that he was also exhausted.
我认为对我来说悲伤的事情还在于那次会议的平凡细节以及会议发生的不幸方式，我认为他确实也筋疲力尽。
10:13 There was a dickhead, a reporter that was asked the question about outfit in a way that, listen, Zelensky, everybody has their strengths and weaknesses.
有一个白痴记者被问到有关着装的问题，听着，泽伦斯基，每个人都有自己的优点和缺点。
He’s an emotional being, for better or for worse.
他是一个情绪化的人，无论好坏。
And there’s a dumb dickhead of a reporter-
还有一个愚蠢的白痴记者——
Margie Taylor Green’s boyfriend.
玛吉·泰勒·格林的男朋友。
10:42 He is, yeah, yeah.
他是，是啊，是啊。
The things you know.
你所知道的事情。
10:46 See, you’re a real journalist.
看，你是一个真正的记者。
I’m all for opening up the White House press pool and all that sort of thing, but it means that you get some people in who are sort of, yeah, from a bloglanders.
我完全赞成开放白宫新闻池和所有类似的事情，但这意味着你会得到一些来自博客作者的人。
10:51 Nothing wrong with that, but it means that you get somebody who will do something like that.
这没什么错，但这意味着你会找到一个愿意做类似事情的人。
The problem with that interaction, as I saw it, was that guy asked that disrespectful question, and I think it was disrespectful.
在我看来，这种互动的问题在于那个人问了那个不尊重的问题，我认为这是不尊重的。
I’ll very quickly say why.
我很快就会说出原因。
I think that when a man comes from the realm of war into the realm of peace, the people in the realm of peace should have some respect or at least concession that the other man has come from the realm of war.
我认为，当一个人从战争领域进入和平领域时，和平领域的人们应该对另一个人来自战争领域表示尊重或至少让步。
And that if you are sitting in a political environment where you talk about people being destroyed and decimated and defenestrated and much more to a man who’s for whom, none of that is metaphorical.
如果你坐在一个政治环境中，你谈论人们被摧毁、屠杀和被驱逐，甚至更多地谈论一个为谁服务的人，那么所有这些都不是隐喻。
I think that’s extremely hard to accept.
我认为这是非常难以接受的。
11:59 And I think that probably also at that moment, there was a sort of sense of Zelensky is being disrespected by being asked about what he’s wearing when as everyone knows, Churchill during World War II used to wear his fatigues on foreign visit.
我想也许就在那一刻，泽连斯基被问及他穿的衣服时，有一种不尊重的感觉，而众所周知，二战期间的丘吉尔在出访时经常穿着他的迷彩服。
But [inaudible 00:12:19] just that is to remind people that you are coming from the realm of war.
但是 [听不清 00:12:19] 这只是为了提醒人们你来自战争领域。
And I think that probably in that moment, one of the things that would’ve been going through his head would be, I mean, if this was Putin sitting here being assaulted by a journalist, you’d hope your host stepped in and defended you.
我认为，在那一刻，他脑子里浮现的一件事可能是，我的意思是，如果普京坐在这里被记者袭击，你会希望你的主人介入并为你辩护。
12:38 Let me try this one out.
让我试试这个。
I mean, if a journalist in the Oval Office, if Putin was sitting there or a putative journalist said to Putin, everyone knows you’ve had a lot of facial work done, and word is you’ve used the same guy that Berlusconi used to use.
我的意思是，如果一名记者在椭圆形办公室，如果普京坐在那里，或者一名假定的记者对普京说，每个人都知道你做了很多面部工作，而且据说你使用了贝卢斯科尼曾经使用过的同一个人。
Can you comment on that?
你能对此发表评论吗？
You’d say, well, that’s a disrespectful question for journalists to ask, and it’s a little bit off what needs to be gone over.
你可能会说，好吧，这对记者来说是一个不尊重的问题，而且这有点偏离了需要讨论的内容。
And it is the same thing with Zelensky with his outfit.
泽连斯基的着装也是如此。
I think it was just petty and threw things off in a bad way.
我认为这只是小事，而且以一种糟糕的方式把事情搞砸了。
Yeah, I know it was probably researched because I think Zelensky was explained this three years ago at the beginning of the war, why he wears what he wears, and he’s been consistent wearing the same-
是的，我知道这可能是经过研究的，因为我认为三年前战争开始时泽伦斯基已经解释过这一点，为什么他穿他穿的衣服，而且他一直穿着同样的衣服——
By the way, it’s an example of the frivolity of a lot of the attempts to understand what’s going on.
顺便说一句，这是许多试图了解正在发生的事情的轻率尝试的一个例子。
13:31 I mean, my view is that since actually most people, in fact, everybody cannot be an expert on everything.
我的意思是，我的观点是，因为实际上大多数人，事实上，每个人都不可能成为所有事情的专家。
One of the things that we always do is to seize on minor and really quite unimportant things.
我们总是做的一件事就是抓住次要的、非常不重要的事情。
I mean, every site does it.
我的意思是，每个网站都这样做。
Look at the way in which the American right for years talked about the Churchill bust leaving the White House Oval Office in the Obama years.
看看美国右翼多年来如何谈论奥巴马时代离开白宫椭圆形办公室的丘吉尔半身像。
I didn’t want to hear another darn thing about the Churchill bust after eight years because it was in lieu of trying to understand and actually critique Obama’s foreign policy.
八年后，我不想再听到有关丘吉尔半身像的任何事情，因为它取代了我对奥巴马外交政策的理解和批评。
It was just an easy shorthand.
这只是一个简单的简写。
I think it’s the same, we’re always tempted to that.
我认为这是一样的，我们总是受到这样的诱惑。
But the thing is, I think you mentioned Putin, I think Putin would’ve been able to respond himself to that journalist effectively, and he would’ve done it in Russian.
但问题是，我想你提到了普京，我认为普京能够有效地回应那位记者，而且他会用俄语来做。
Oh, yeah, the language thing.
哦，是的，语言问题。
Yeah.
是的。
14:35 So I wanted to sort of lay out several just unfortunate things that happened in these situations.
所以我想列出一些在这些情况下发生的不幸的事情。
I think it happens in all peace negotiations, and it’s funny how history can turn in moments like this.
我认为这种情况在所有和平谈判中都会发生，有趣的是历史会在这样的时刻发生转变。
I do think there’s a dickhead reporter combined with the fact that, with all due respect, but Zelensky’s English sometimes is not very good.
我确实认为有一个白痴记者结合了这样的事实，恕我直言，但泽连斯基的英语有时不是很好。
Yes.
是的。
14:55 And apart from anything else, if had have agreed to have not done it in English, he would’ve bought himself the extra seconds in some of his replies that he needed.
抛开其他事情不说，如果他同意不用英语，他就会为自己在一些他需要的回复中赢得额外的时间。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
15:02 And have the wit, the guys funny, witty, intelligent.
并且有智慧，这些家伙有趣、机智、聪明。
He could do that in the native language of whether it’s Ukrainian or Russian, to be able to respond and get the interpreter.
他可以用母语（无论是乌克兰语还是俄语）做到这一点，以便能够做出回应并找到翻译。
So all of that is really unfortunate, because I think in those little moments, it’s a dance, and there’s an opportunity there.
所以所有这一切真的很不幸，因为我认为在那些小时刻，这是一场舞蹈，那里有一个机会。
The Republicans, the right-wing in the United States have a general skepticism of Zelensky, but that doesn’t mean it has to be that way.
美国右翼共和党人普遍对泽伦斯基持怀疑态度，但这并不意味着事情必须如此。
It can turn, it can change, it can evolve.
它可以转动、可以改变、可以进化。
It’s very interesting why it has happened.
为什么会发生这种事很有趣。
15:37 Why do you think it’s happened?
你认为为什么会发生这种事？
Politics in the United States is so dumb that at the very beginning it could just be reduced to…
美国的政治是如此愚蠢，以至于一开始它就可以简化为……
15:42 Well, the left went Putin bad, Zelensky good.
好吧，左派普京不好，泽连斯基好。
Rah, rah, Ukrainian flags.
啊啊啊，乌克兰国旗。
Therefore, the right must go the opposite.
因此，右派必须反其道而行之。
Yeah.
是的。
15:59 Definitely.
确实。
Yeah.
是的。
Sometimes it’s literally as dumb as that.
有时它真的就是那么愚蠢。
Let’s each pick a side and call the other dumb.
让我们各选一方，并称另一方愚蠢。
I had a line I used recently, the necessity of people who live too long online to try to wade their way out of the memes.
我最近用过一句话，那些在网上生活太久的人必须努力摆脱迷因。
16:04 It is sort like that, isn’t it?
就是这样，不是吗？
Yeah.
是的。
Because yes, I mean, I can understand the people who find it very irritating that so many people who would put BLM flags or pride flags or trans flags in their bio then put Ukrainian flags in their bio despite almost suddenly not knowing where Ukraine was.
因为是的，我的意思是，我可以理解那些觉得非常令人恼火的人，因为很多人在他们的简历中放上 BLM 旗帜、骄傲旗帜或跨性别旗帜，然后在他们的简历中放上乌克兰国旗，尽管几乎突然不知道乌克兰在哪里。
16:15 And if that happens, inevitable instinct of a lot of people who aren’t really thinking is to say, “That’s really annoying.
如果发生这种情况，很多没有真正思考的人不可避免地会本能地说：“这真的很烦人。
These people are really annoying, I’ll sock it to them.” But that’s where you’ve got to try to rise above that and say, “Actually, funnily enough, the fate of a country doesn’t depend on my tolerance for memes online today.”
这些人真烦人，我就狠狠教训他们一顿。”但这就是你必须尝试超越这一点并说：“实际上，有趣的是，一个国家的命运并不取决于我今天对网上表情包的容忍度。”
Yeah.
是的。
16:49 So, I think the memes can be broken through in meetings like the one that happened between Zelensky and Trump.
因此，我认为这些模因可以在泽连斯基和特朗普之间发生的会议中得到突破。
There can been real comradery.
可以有真正的同志情谊。
I’ve seen the skill of that just recently having researched deeply and interacted with Narendra Modi, here’s somebody who has the skill for his country, for his situation, being able to somehow be friends with Putin and friends with Zelensky and friends with Trump, and friends with Biden and friends with Obama.
我最近刚刚与纳伦德拉·莫迪进行了深入研究并进行了互动，我看到了这种技巧，这个人有能力为他的国家、为他的处境，能够以某种方式与普京成为朋友，与泽连斯基成为朋友，与特朗普成为朋友，与拜登成为朋友，与奥巴马成为朋友。
He was very skillful.
他非常熟练。
That while still being strong for his country and fundamentally a nationalist figure who’s very non globalist, not anything but pro-India, India First, Nation First.
虽然他的国家仍然很强大，而且从根本上来说是一个非常非全球化的民族主义人物，除了亲印度、印度第一、国家第一之外什么都没有。
17:26 In fact, Nation First with a very specific idea what that nation represents.
事实上，“国家优先”对于这个国家代表什么有着非常具体的想法。
Sure.
当然。
And that Zelensky could do all of those things, but have the skill of navigating the Trump room.
泽伦斯基可以做所有这些事情，但他有能力驾驭特朗普的房间。
17:52 Because every single leader has their own peculiar quirks that need to be navigated.
因为每个领导者都有自己需要克服的怪癖。
Yes, the obvious one, I mean, I don’t want to make it sound like it was all Zelensky’s fault, I mean, the obvious one was at the beginning of the meeting to say, “Yet again, as he has done for three years, thank you to America and American people and American politicians from across the aisle for your support for my country in its hour of need, but we’re deeply grateful.” And because he for once forgot to say that.
是的，最明显的一个，我的意思是，我不想让这听起来像是全是泽伦斯基的错，我的意思是，最明显的一个是在会议开始时说，“正如他三年来所做的那样，再次感谢美国、美国人民和来自两党的美国政客在我的国家需要的时候对我的支持，但我们深表感激。”因为他这一次忘了这么说。
I think it’s not that simple.
我认为事情没那么简单。
18:27 I think there’s a-
我认为有一个——
It’s not that simple.
事情没那么简单。
18:29 It’s one reason.
这是原因之一。
I think saying, thank you.
我想说，谢谢。
18:30 He didn’t need to say, “Thank you.” There’s just-
他不需要说“谢谢”。这里只有——
Well, that was what Vance leapt in on.
好吧，这就是万斯跳出来的。
He’s just picking a thing to leap on.
他只是选了一个东西来跳。
18:36 There’s a whole energy.
有一种完整的能量。
You have to acknowledge in your way of being that you have been very Biden buddy buddy with the left for the last four years.
你必须承认，在过去的四年里，你一直是左派的拜登好朋友。
There’s ways to fix that.
有办法解决这个问题。
Listen, these people are complicated narcissists, all of them, Biden, Trump.
听着，这些人都是复杂的自恋者，他们所有人，拜登、特朗普。
You have to navigate the complexity of that.
你必须应对其中的复杂性。
And you basically have to say a kind word to Trump, which is showing…
你基本上必须对特朗普说一句好话，这表明……
There’s many ways of doing that.
有很多方法可以做到这一点。
But one of them is saying, feeding the ego by acknowledging that he is one of the world’s greatest negotiators, right?
但其中一位说，通过承认自己是世界上最伟大的谈判者之一来满足自我，对吗？
“I’m glad we’re able to come to the table and negotiate together, because I believe you are the great negotiator/mediator that can actually bring a successful resolution to…” As opposed to have an energy of, it should be obvious to everybody that Ukrainian are the good guys and Russia is the bad guys.
“我很高兴我们能够来到谈判桌一起谈判，因为我相信你是伟大的谈判者/调解人，实际上可以为……带来成功的解决方案。”与拥有能量相反，每个人都应该清楚乌克兰人是好人，俄罗斯人是坏人。
19:38 There’s this whole energy of entitlement that he brought.
他带来了所有权利的能量。
He forgot that there’s a new guy.
他忘记了还有一个新人。
You got to convince the new guy that this global mission, that this nation is on this war that is in many ways, the West versus the East.
你必须让新人相信这是一项全球使命，这个国家正处于这场从很多方面来说都是西方与东方对抗的战争中。
That there’s ideals, there’s whole histories here that this is a war worth winning.
这里有理想，有完整的历史，这是一场值得赢得胜利的战争。
You have to convince them, right?
你必须说服他们，对吗？
Yeah.
是的。
20:06 No, sure.
不，当然。
And they obviously failed on that occasion.
那次他们显然失败了。
But as I say, it must be bewildering to have landed in a place where people were seriously talking about Ukraine starting the war and Zelensky not Putin being the dictator.
但正如我所说，来到一个人们认真谈论乌克兰发动战争、泽连斯基而不是普京成为独裁者的地方，一定会让人感到困惑。
I did the front page of the New York Post the day after the president’s comments on that saying that the big picture of Putin just saying, “This is a dictator.” And I think the people can be live enough to be able to recognize that you can make criticisms of Zelensky or the Ukrainians, but it doesn’t mean you have to fall for Putin.
在总统发表评论后的第二天，我登上了《纽约邮报》的头版，称普京的大局只是说：“这是一个独裁者。”我认为人们可以足够活跃，能够认识到你可以批评泽连斯基或乌克兰人，但这并不意味着你必须爱上普京。
And again, unfortunately, a lot of people in our time don’t have that capability.
不幸的是，我们这个时代的很多人都不具备这种能力。
Can we go right into it?
我们可以直接进入吗？
20:54 What is your strongest criticism of Putin?
您对普京最强烈的批评是什么？
He’s a dictator who’s very bloody, as repressive as you can be of political opposition, internal opposition.
他是一个非常血腥的独裁者，对政治反对派和内部反对派进行尽可能的镇压。
20:59 He’s kleptomaniac of his country’s resources, has enriched himself as much as he could, as he has with the cronies around him.
他对国家的资源有盗窃癖，尽可能地让自己致富，就像他对待周围的亲信一样。
He’s not just acted to destroy internal opposition in Russia, but has gone to other countries, including my own country of birth and killed people on our soil.
他不仅采取行动摧毁俄罗斯内部的反对派，而且还前往其他国家，包括我自己的出生国，在我们的土地上杀害了人们。
As it happens, weapons of mass destruction, the use of polonium in the Center of London, not good.
碰巧的是，大规模杀伤性武器，在伦敦市中心使用钋，并不好。
The use of incredibly dangerous nerve agents that could kill tens of thousands of people in a charming Cathedral City like Salisbury.
在索尔兹伯里这样迷人的大教堂城，使用极其危险的神经毒剂可能会导致数万人死亡。
Not good.
不好。
If the sort of apologists of Putin would say, “Well, he’s just a sort of tough man who’s looking after his house business,” he say.
他说，如果普京的辩护者会说：“好吧，他只是一个打理自己家业的强硬人。”
Well, I don’t think even if you think he has the right to do that, he should be doing it in third countries deliberately using weapons that are meant to show that you could take out tens of thousands of British citizens.
好吧，我认为即使你认为他有权这样做，他也不应该在第三国故意使用武器来这样做，以表明你可以杀死数以万计的英国公民。
Yeah.
是的。
I mean, that’s just for starters.
我的意思是，这只是初学者。
Do you think he’s actually popularly elected?
你认为他实际上是民选的吗？
No.
不。
Do you think the results of the elections are fraudulent?
您认为选举结果有舞弊吗？
Yes.
是的。
22:28 I mean-
我的意思是——
Do you think it’s possible that it’s just that the opposition has been eliminated and he’s legitimately popularly elected?
你认为有可能只是反对派被消灭了，他是合法民选的吗？
It definitely helps the chap if he’s killed all of his opponents.
如果他杀死了所有对手，这肯定会对他有帮助。
Something about using the term chap in that context is just marvelous.
在这种情况下使用“chap”一词真是太棒了。
This is another, the sort of slightly Alice in Wonderland things recently about Zelensky as people are saying, “Well, he’s a dictator because he hasn’t held elections during a total war of self-defense.” And it’s like, “Well, if you are really, really passionate about free and fair elections in that neck of the woods, you’d at least notice that Russian elections are not free and fair in any meaningful sense.” But this doesn’t mean that you have to say that therefore, they should have Western style elections and freedom, that Russia is ready to go and become a western liberal democracy.
这是另一件事，最近关于泽伦斯基的事情有点像爱丽丝梦游仙境，人们说，“嗯，他是一个独裁者，因为他在全面自卫战争期间没有举行选举。”就像，“好吧，如果你真的非常热衷于在那个树林里进行自由和公平的选举，你至少会注意到俄罗斯的选举在任何有意义的意义上都不是自由和公平的。”但这并不意味着你必须说，因此，他们应该有西方式的选举和自由，俄罗斯已经准备好成为西方自由民主国家。
22:53 It doesn’t mean any of that at all.
这根本没有任何意义。
At least note that this is what Putin is.
至少请注意，普京就是这样的人。
What do you think is the motivation for his invasion of Ukraine in ’22?
你认为他22年入侵乌克兰的动机是什么？
Well, it’s what he’s said for years, which is basically the reconstitution of the Soviet Union.
嗯，这就是他多年来所说的，这基本上就是苏联的重建。
Do you think there is empire building components to that motivation?
您认为这种动机有建立帝国的成分吗？
I would trust most of my friends in East and Central Europe who certainly do think that.
我相信我在东欧和中欧的大多数朋友肯定也这么认为。
23:52 There’s a reason why the Baltic countries are the countries that are spending highest in percentage of GDP on defense.
波罗的海国家是国防支出占国内生产总值百分比最高的国家是有原因的。
And it’s because they’re very worried.
这是因为他们非常担心。
I don’t think they’re faking it.
我不认为他们在假装。
I don’t think they’re faking it for me or for anyone else.
我不认为他们是为了我或其他人而假装的。
I think the Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians and others are genuinely worried for the first time in some decades.
我认为立陶宛人、拉脱维亚人、爱沙尼亚人和其他人几十年来第一次真正感到担忧。
Do you think there’s a possibility that the war continues indefinitely, even if there’s a ceasefire in the peace reached, the war will resume, he will seek expansion even beyond Ukraine?
您是否认为战争有可能无限期地继续下去，即使达成停火，战争也会恢复，他会寻求扩张，甚至超越乌克兰？
Yes.
是的。
24:38 And the most obvious thing is that if Trump manages to negotiate a ceasefire, it’ll be a temporary pause.
最明显的事情是，如果特朗普成功通过谈判达成停火，这将是暂时的停顿。
And whoever comes in as president after Trump, Putin will use the opportunity to advance again.
无论特朗普之后谁继任总统，普京都会利用这个机会再次晋级。
Yes.
是的。
Again, one of the things that I have heard from parts of the American right and others is that all he wants is Ukraine.
再说一次，我从美国右翼和其他人那里听到的一件事是，他想要的只是乌克兰。
That that’s all he wants, and that he has no history of rhetoric or actions that suggest anything else.
这就是他想要的一切，而且他没有任何暗示其他任何言论或行动的历史。
And again, it’s one of the reasons why it’s useful traveling to places and seeing things your own eyes.
再说一次，这也是为什么去一些地方旅行并亲眼看到事物很有用的原因之一。
Because I very much remember being in the country of Georgia after Putin tried to invade in 2008.
因为我非常清楚地记得 2008 年普京试图入侵格鲁吉亚后的情景。
Again, people don’t have to be the greatest supporters of the Ukrainian cause.
再说一次，人们不必成为乌克兰事业的最大支持者。
Just to recognize that it doesn’t seem to be the case that Ukraine is the only thing in Putin’s vision.
只是要认识到，乌克兰似乎并不是普京愿景中唯一的事情。
Do you see value and maybe depth and power to the realist perspective of all this?
您是否看到这一切的现实主义视角的价值、深度和力量？
25:41 Somebody like John Mearsheimer’s formulation of all this, that in these invasions of Georgia, of Ukraine, it’s using military power to expand the sphere of influence in the region in a cold calculation of geopolitics.
像约翰·米尔斯海默这样的人对这一切的表述是，在对格鲁吉亚和乌克兰的入侵中，它是在地缘政治的冷酷计算中利用军事力量扩大在该地区的势力范围。
It’s interesting.
这很有趣。
26:06 One of the fascinating things about the last few years is that there’s been an act of sort of necromancy of certain figures were totally, totally debunked in the area of Ukraine, Mearsheimer, and in the case of Israel people like Finkelstein.
过去几年中令人着迷的事情之一是，在乌克兰米尔斯海默地区，以及在芬克尔斯坦等以色列人的情况下，某些人物的死灵行为被完全揭穿了。
And it’s been interesting because these are people that one hadn’t heard of for some years because they were not listened to, usually, for good reason.
这很有趣，因为这些人已经很多年没有听说过了，因为通常有充分的理由没有人倾听他们的意见。
By the way, first of all, I’m very skeptical of the term realist in foreign policy because most people to some extent will say that they are a realist in foreign policy.
顺便说一句，首先，我对外交政策中的现实主义者这个词非常怀疑，因为大多数人在某种程度上都会说他们是外交政策中的现实主义者。
Very few people are surrealists in foreign policy.
很少有人在外交政策上是超现实主义者。
Very few people are unrealists.
很少有人是不现实主义者。
I would like to meet them.
我想见见他们。
A surrealist foreign policy analyst.
超现实主义外交政策分析师。
We did mention Alice in Wonderland, so.
我们确实提到了爱丽丝梦游仙境，所以。
Yeah.
是的。
26:59 I mean, maybe we should introduce the term, but…
我的意思是，也许我们应该引入这个术语，但是……
I mean, if you want to say, if you want to look gimlet-eyed, eyed out across the world, you’re a realist.
我的意思是，如果你想说，如果你想让自己看起来目光锐利，目光投向世界各地，那么你就是一个现实主义者。
I think the steel man of their argument would be Russia has or believes it has a sphere of influence.
我认为他们论点的钢铁侠是俄罗斯拥有或相信它拥有势力范围。
And is regrettable, but there’s very little we can do about that.
令人遗憾的是，但我们对此无能为力。
That would be about the best version of that argument that you can make.
这将是你能提出的该论点的最佳版本。
Well, to expand on that steel man, isn’t this how superpowers operate in the dark realist/surrealist way?
好吧，扩展一下那个钢铁侠，这不就是超级大国以黑暗现实主义/超现实主义的方式运作的方式吗？
27:30 Meaning the United States uses military power to have a sphere of influence over the whole globe, really.
这意味着美国确实利用军事力量在全球范围内拥有影响力。
China appears to be willing to use military power to expand its sphere of influence.
中国似乎愿意利用军事力量扩大其势力范围。
And political power, yeah, more importantly, in the case of China.
是的，更重要的是政治权力，就中国而言。
Political power.
政权。
Non-kinetic warfare to take over areas.
非动能战争占领地区。
27:59 Hong Kong being the obvious one.
香港是显而易见的。
Behind that, isn’t there always a kinetic threat?
这背后，不总是存在动能威胁吗？
Oh yeah, of course.
哦，是的，当然。
28:09 Yeah.
是的。
I mean, you disappear some booksellers and students are protesting, of course.
我的意思是，你消失了一些书商，当然，学生们也在抗议。
But to go back to this, yeah, of course.
但回到这一点，是的，当然。
Okay.
好的。
The countries believe they have or would like to have spheres of influence.
这些国家相信它们拥有或希望拥有势力范围。
I do think at some point that the so-called realists on that have to try to decide how much leeway that allows you to give to a fairly rapacious regime.
我确实认为，在某些时候，所谓的现实主义者必须尝试决定给一个相当贪婪的政权留出多少余地。
I mean, it’s not the easiest calculation always to make.
我的意思是，这并不总是最容易进行的计算。
You have to work out whether or not, for instance, it is true that if Putin had managed to go all the way to Kiev in the first weeks of the war in ’22, he would’ve gone straight on to other places.
例如，你必须弄清楚，如果普京在 22 年战争的头几周内一路前往基辅，他是否会直接前往其他地方。
28:58 And maybe he would’ve done, maybe he would’ve taken his time, maybe he wouldn’t have done.
也许他会这样做，也许他会慢慢来，也许他不会这样做。
And this is a very fine calculation that changes every week, let alone every year.
这是一个非常精细的计算，每周都会发生变化，更不用说每年了。
My friends in Georgia I thought were wildly off the mark when they were believing that after 2008 they could get, for instance, either NATO membership or EU membership.
我认为，我在格鲁吉亚的朋友们相信 2008 年之后他们可以获得北约成员资格或欧盟成员资格，他们的想法大错特错。
And I thought that was completely unlikely.
我认为这完全不可能。
And I still think it’s unlikely and almost suddenly undesirable for Europe and for NATO, because you’ve got to be very careful.
我仍然认为这不太可能，而且几乎突然间对欧洲和北约来说是不可取的，因为你必须非常小心。
And obviously, this is one of the issues with Ukraine and has been since the ’90s, are you going to set up a trip wire to start World War 3?
显然，这是乌克兰的问题之一，自 90 年代以来一直存在，你会设置绊线来引发第三次世界大战吗？
And that’s not a small thing to consider.
这不是一件需要考虑的小事。
So what do you think the peace deal might look like, and what does the path to peace look like in Ukraine in the coming weeks and months?
那么，您认为和平协议可能会是什么样子？未来几周和几个月乌克兰的和平之路会是什么样子？
I just thought it would be regrettably the Ukrainian ceding territory in the east, and then making sure they rearm during whatever peace period comes afterwards.
我只是认为乌克兰会遗憾地放弃东部领土，然后确保他们在随后的和平时期重新武装。
And probably, all four territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson.
可能还有顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、扎波罗热、赫尔松这四个地区。
You couldn’t lay any of that out because it has to be negotiated on.
你不能把这些都列出来，因为它必须经过谈判。
30:22 And I think the ease with which non-Ukrainians are currently speaking about the Ukrainian ceding territory is concerning because these territories include hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens who do not want to live under Putin’s rule, and people who have families in the rest of Ukraine and much more.
我认为非乌克兰人目前谈论乌克兰割让领土的轻松程度令人担忧，因为这些领土包括数十万不想生活在普京统治下的乌克兰公民，以及在乌克兰其他地区有家人的人等等。
And I recently interviewed children who had managed to get out of the Russian occupied areas, and it’s brutal for the Ukrainian to be growing up in that territory.
我最近采访了设法逃离俄罗斯占领区的孩子们，乌克兰人在该地区长大是残酷的。
So, when people say, “Well, obviously Donetsk has to be given to Putin.” I think that is not as easier a thing if you are in Ukraine as it is if you’re sitting in New York say.
因此，当人们说：“嗯，显然顿涅茨克必须交给普京。”我认为，如果你在乌克兰，这并不像你坐在纽约那么容易。
31:26 There is a school of thought that obviously President Trump to some extent was floating in recent weeks, which is that if a deal is done, a business deal in relation to minerals or anything else, you get a buffer zone of American businesses and investment.
最近几周，特朗普总统显然在某种程度上在浮动一种思想，即如果达成一项协议，一项与矿产或其他任何事情有关的商业协议，你就会获得美国企业和投资的缓冲区。
And therefore American business people in the region, which would effectively warn Putin not to invade.
因此，该地区的美国商人将有效警告普京不要入侵。
I don’t follow that idea because not least there were Americans in the regions that were invaded in ’22 and they left fast…
我不同意这个想法，因为尤其是在 22 年被入侵的地区有美国人，他们很快就离开了……
32:00 …
……
in the regions that were invaded in ’22 and they left fast.
在22年被入侵的地区，他们很快就离开了。
And we know from Hong Kong and other places, just because there are international financial interests in the region does not mean that a dictatorship will not, either militarily or covertly, take over.
我们从香港和其他地方知道，仅仅因为该地区存在国际金融利益，并不意味着独裁政权不会通过军事或秘密方式接管。
I don’t see American miners as being an effective buffer zone against Putin.
我不认为美国矿工是对抗普京的有效缓冲区。
By the way, what did you learn from talking to the children, Ukrainian children from those regions?
顺便问一下，您从与这些地区的乌克兰儿童的谈话中学到了什么？
Well, it’s heartbreaking because the only schooling is Russian schooling.
嗯，这令人心碎，因为唯一的学校教育是俄罗斯学校教育。
32:32 Obviously, teaching the Russian language, Putin’s view of history and, effectively, indoctrination.
显然，教授俄语、普京的历史观，并有效地进行灌输。
And people can quibble with that term but it’s Putinesque indoctrination schools and any children or families that do not want that effectively have to hide and not go out.
人们可能会对这个词有异议，但这是普京式的灌输学校，任何不希望这样的儿童或家庭实际上都必须躲起来，不要出去。
And I spoke to children and parents who’d had [inaudible 00:33:08], for instance, the Russians set up in ’22 and ’23 summer camps for the children of some of the areas that have been occupied and the children went off to the camps and then they didn’t come back, they were just stolen.
我与孩子们和家长交谈过，他们 [听不清 00:33:08] 例如，俄罗斯人在 22 和 23 年为一些被占领地区的孩子们设立了夏令营，孩子们去了营地，然后他们没有回来，他们只是被偷了。
It’s thought that around 20,000 Ukrainian children have been stolen in this fashion, that’s not a small thing.
据了解，大约有两万名乌克兰儿童以这种方式被盗，这可不是一件小事。
It’s not got very much attention but, yes, children who would hide whenever the Russian troops came to the door.
这并没有引起太多关注，但是，是的，每当俄罗斯军队来到门口时，孩子们就会躲起来。
33:38 One teenage boy who described to me how, when his mother was out, a woman came around the house, knocked on the door and gave him his papers and said that he had to attend the next week to sign up for the Russian army.
一个十几岁的男孩向我描述了当他的母亲外出时，一名妇女在房子周围走过，敲门并给了他证件，并说他必须在下周参加俄罗斯军队报名。
This is not good and that’s obviously what life is like for thousands of people behind the Russian lines in Ukraine.
这并不好，这显然就是俄罗斯境内乌克兰境内数千人的生活。
I just have it in mind when people say things like, “Well, obviously, these regions have to be handed over.” It’s very, very hard, if you’re a Ukrainian, to concede to that.
当人们说“嗯，显然，这些地区必须移交”之类的话时，我就想到了这一点。如果你是乌克兰人，要承认这一点是非常非常困难的。
Yeah.
是的。
34:20 And even if they are, as part of the negotiation, to hand it over, I think it’ll probably be generations or never that that could be accepted by Ukrainian people.
即使他们作为谈判的一部分将其移交，我认为乌克兰人民也可能需要几代人或永远不会接受这一点。
Absolutely, and I would have thought never.
绝对会，我从来没想过。
What do we know about this kidnapping of children?
我们对这起绑架儿童事件了解多少？
34:33 The stories of the thousands of children that the Russian forces kidnapped?
俄罗斯军队绑架的数千名儿童的故事？
Some of them were in orphanages in Eastern Ukraine, not all by any means, but some were.
他们中的一些人在乌克兰东部的孤儿院，无论如何，并非全部，但有些人是。
34:43 And it’s a very complicated story, actually, because many children were taken from their families, many the Russians said, “Well, look at these Ukrainians, they don’t even look after their children, therefore, we will look after them.” And recently, when I was there looking into this story because it’s a very interesting question as to why it hasn’t had more attention.
事实上，这是一个非常复杂的故事，因为许多孩子被从他们的家人身边带走，许多俄罗斯人说，“好吧，看看这些乌克兰人，他们甚至不照顾他们的孩子，因此，我们会照顾他们。”最近，当我在那里调查这个故事时，因为这是一个非常有趣的问题，为什么它没有得到更多关注。
One thinks of, for instance, the abduction of the Chibok schoolgirls some 12 years ago now in Northern Nigeria and the appalling abduction of 300 girls by Boko Haram completely gained the world’s attention.
例如，大约 12 年前尼日利亚北部奇博克女学生被绑架的事件以及博科圣地绑架 300 名女孩的骇人听闻事件完全引起了全世界的关注。
And I was very interested into why the Ukrainian children who’d been taken by the Russians have not gained similar attention, there’s a slight similarity with the war in Israel which I’m sure we’ll come on to.
我很想知道为什么被俄罗斯人带走的乌克兰儿童没有得到类似的关注，这与以色列的战争有一点相似之处，我相信我们会继续讨论。
35:37 And I do think that one reason is that they were effectively hostages and the Ukrainians knew, this is my estimation of the terrain, is that the Ukrainians knew that, if they made a great deal about this more than they did, that the children would effectively be the most effective bargaining chip.
我确实认为，原因之一是他们实际上是人质，而乌克兰人知道，这是我对地形的估计，乌克兰人知道，如果他们在这方面做得比他们多，那么孩子们实际上将成为最有效的讨价还价筹码。
And I do think there’s considerable truth in that because, if you look at, for instance, the way in which pressure has been put on the Israeli government by the Israeli population about the kidnapped Israelis, you’ll see that it’s a pretty effective tactic for any totalitarian regime or terrorist group to operate in a way that means that the population of the country you’re attacking pressure their government to do something in terms of concession, it’s a very effective tool.
我确实认为这有相当的道理，因为，例如，如果你看看以色列民众就被绑架的以色列人向以色列政府施加压力的方式，你就会发现，对于任何极权主义政权或恐怖组织来说，这都是一种非常有效的策略，其运作方式意味着你所攻击的国家的民众向他们的政府施压，要求他们做出让步，这是一个非常有效的工具。
And I think that story was partly played down, not just outside of Ukraine, but also within Ukraine partly for that reason.
我认为这个故事在一定程度上被淡化了，不仅在乌克兰之外，而且在乌克兰内部也是如此。
As a truth seeker, as a journalist, how do you operate in that world where, at least to me, it’s obvious that there’s just a flood of propaganda on both sides?
作为一名真相寻求者，作为一名记者，你如何在这个世界中运作，至少对我来说，很明显双方都有大量的宣传？
36:45 Now, of course, when you go there and directly experience it and talk to people but those people are still also swimming in the propaganda.
当然，现在当你去那里直接体验它并与人们交谈时，但那些人仍然在宣传中游泳。
So, unless you witness stuff directly, sometimes it’s hard to know.
所以，除非你直接亲眼目睹，否则有时很难知道。
I speak to people on the Russian side and they’re clearly, first of all, hilariously enough, they almost always say that there’s no propaganda in Russia.
我和俄罗斯方面的人交谈过，首先，他们显然很搞笑，他们几乎总是说俄罗斯没有宣传。
Of course.
当然。
Which makes me realize you can be completely lied to, maybe I am in the United States as well, and just be unaware.
这让我意识到你可能完全被骗了，也许我也在美国，只是没有意识到。
37:22 Maybe earth is run by aliens, maybe the earth is flat so I don’t know.
也许地球是由外星人统治的，也许地球是平的，所以我不知道。
Maybe you’ve taken mushrooms.
也许你吃过蘑菇。
I have before this and I finally see the truth and it’s you that are deluded, Douglas.
在此之前我终于看到了真相，是你被欺骗了，道格拉斯。
37:40 Okay, but back to our round earth discussion, round earth shills that we are, how do you know what is true?
好吧，但回到我们关于地球圆的讨论，我们是圆地球的托儿，你怎么知道什么是真的？
You can tell it when the bare facts become not true, you can tell it when somebody is willing to claim that everything caused the invasion of 2022 except for Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine.
当赤裸裸的事实变得不真实时，你可以说出来，当有人愿意声称除了弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)入侵乌克兰之外的一切都导致了2022年的入侵时，你可以说出来。
Yeah, there’s a hilarious thing that happens and I think you’ve actually speak about this that people are generally just much more willing to criticize the democratically elected leader.
是的，发生了一件有趣的事情，我想你实际上已经谈到了这一点，即人们通常更愿意批评民主选举的领导人。
Always, always.
永远，永远。
So, the interesting thing that happens is these wise sages that do the narratives of NATO started the war which there is some interesting geopolitical depth and truth to that.
因此，发生的有趣的事情是，这些聪明的圣人讲述了北约发动了战争的故事，其中有一些有趣的地缘政治深度和事实。
Sure.
当然。
That NATO expansion created a complicated geopolitical context, whatever.
无论如何，北约的扩张创造了复杂的地缘政治环境。
Sure.
当然。
But they forget to say other parts of that story.
但他们忘记说这个故事的其他部分。
Well, yes, of course.
嗯，是的，当然。
38:50 And of course, to some extent, it’s rather …
当然，在某种程度上，这相当……
The most irritating type of question asker at any event is the person who says, ” I was disappointed that, in your 30-minute talk, you didn’t address X.” And I tend to say, “Looking forward to coming to your next talk where, in 30 minutes, you’ll cover everything that could possibly be covered.” There’s always stuff that’s going to be left on the sides, there’s always going to be stuff that’s left unaddressed, there’s always going to be other angles, there’s always going to be somebody else who has this interesting perspective and you can’t cover it.
在任何情况下，最令人恼火的提问者是这样的人：“我很失望，在你 30 分钟的演讲中，你没有提到 X。”我倾向于说，“期待您的下一次演讲，在 30 分钟内，您将涵盖所有可能涵盖的内容。”总有一些东西会被留在一边，总会有一些东西没有被解决，总会有其他角度，总会有其他人有这个有趣的观点，而你无法掩盖它。
Nevertheless, if you cover everything other than the central things, then it’s suspicious.
然而，如果你涵盖了除中心内容以外的所有内容，那就很可疑了。
Many years ago at a debate in London, there was a debate about the origins of World War II and Pat Buchanan talking of necromancy was one of the speakers and Andrew Roberts, the historian, was one of the people on the other side.
许多年前，在伦敦的一场辩论中，有一场关于第二次世界大战起源的辩论，帕特·布坎南（Pat Buchanan）谈论死灵术是演讲者之一，历史学家安德鲁·罗伯茨（Andrew Roberts）是另一方的人之一。
And at one point, they got so completely stuck into issues of iron ore mining in Poland in the mid …
有一次，他们在中期完全陷入了波兰铁矿石开采的问题……
Something like this.
像这样的东西。
40:02 And the moderator, I remember, it was just a melee, and the moderator turns to Andrew Roberts and says, “Andrew Roberts, why did World War II begin?” and he says, “World War II began because Hitler invaded Poland.” And it was a magnificent moment because everything had been a marsh, they were just so lost in all the intricate and clever and interesting things that you can talk about about the origins of a war that you forget to mention the thing that’s most important.
我记得主持人，那只是一场混战，主持人转向安德鲁·罗伯茨说：“安德鲁·罗伯茨，第二次世界大战为什么开始？”他说：“第二次世界大战是因为希特勒入侵波兰而开始的。”那是一个伟大的时刻，因为一切都变成了沼泽，他们完全迷失在所有复杂、聪明和有趣的事情中，以至于你可以谈论战争的起源，而忘记提及最重要的事情。
And certainly, my experience as a journalist and writer is one of the reasons why you need to go and see things with your own eyes is because people are certain to tell you that what you’ve seen with your own eyes didn’t happen or hasn’t happened and it helps to steal you for that moment.
当然，我作为一名记者和作家的经历是你需要亲眼所见的原因之一，因为人们肯定会告诉你，你亲眼所见的事情没有发生或还没有发生，这有助于在那一刻偷走你。
Yeah.
是的。
40:58 It’s a gradual thing that happens where the obvious thing starts being taken for granted and people stop saying it because it’s the boring thing to say at a party.
这是一个逐渐发生的事情，显而易见的事情开始被视为理所当然，人们不再说它，因为在聚会上说这件事很无聊。
And then, all of a sudden, over time, you just almost start questioning whether the obvious thing is even true.
然后，突然之间，随着时间的推移，你几乎开始质疑显而易见的事情是否属实。
I don’t know how that happens in human psychology but it does.
我不知道这在人类心理学中是如何发生的，但确实如此。
Yeah, I think it does.
是的，我认为确实如此。
41:20 I’ve observed it in a lot of different places which is the important thing is the only thing you do forget, everything else is what you remember.
我在很多不同的地方观察过，重要的是你唯一忘记的事情，其他一切都是你记得的。
And some of us are, for some reason, wired in a way where we try not to forget the important thing.
出于某种原因，我们中的一些人总是试图不忘记重要的事情。
Remember the obvious thing, yeah.
记住显而易见的事情，是的。
Yes.
是的。
41:35 And as you say, not wanting to be the boring guy at the party who reiterates what is true because what a douchebag you’d be if you were that guy.
正如你所说，不想成为聚会上那个重申真理的无聊人，因为如果你是那个人，你就是个混蛋。
Nobody likes captain obvious at a party, okay.
没有人喜欢派对上明显的队长，好吧。
41:44 Is it possible that Donald Trump is a mediator, a successful negotiator that brings a stable peace to Ukraine?
唐纳德·特朗普有可能是一名调解人、一名成功的谈判者，为乌克兰带来稳定的和平吗？
It’s possible, we’ll have to see.
有可能，我们得看看。
41:58 I think it’s just too early and complicated to tell.
我认为现在下结论还为时过早且复杂。
That he wants to bring a peace seems to me to be obvious, he stated it a lot of times.
在我看来，他想要带来和平是显而易见的，他多次这样说过。
Whether he can, we’re just going to have to see.
他是否可以，我们只能拭目以待。
It’s extremely hard to see some of the parameters of the peace still.
现在仍然很难看到和平的一些参数。
And I would suggest that the one, not the most difficult, but one of the most difficult is that there is no peace guarantee on paper that the Ukrainians can possibly believe.
我想说的是，虽然不是最困难的，但却是最困难的之一，那就是乌克兰人无法相信纸面上的和平保证。
It doesn’t matter because we in the West, some of the countries in the West have said it before that we’d secure their peace and we haven’t.
这并不重要，因为我们西方国家，一些西方国家以前说过我们会确保他们的和平，但我们没有。
And so, what other than NATO membership, which is not possible in my view, what other than NATO membership would reassure the Ukrainians that they are going to have their borders secured and the peace of Ukraine secured, I can’t see.
因此，除了加入北约（在我看来这是不可能的）之外，除了加入北约之外，还有什么可以让乌克兰人放心，他们将确保自己的边界安全和乌克兰的和平，我看不出。
I think there’s not going to be ever a guarantee that you can trust.
我认为永远不会有值得您信任的保证。
43:02 I think the way you have a guarantee, implicit guarantee is by having military and economic partnerships with as many partners as possible.
我认为获得保证、隐性保证的方式是与尽可能多的合作伙伴建立军事和经济伙伴关系。
So, you have partnerships with the Middle East, you have partnerships with India, perhaps even with China, with the United States, with many nations in Europe.
因此，你与中东建立了伙伴关系，与印度建立了伙伴关系，甚至可能与中国、美国和欧洲许多国家建立了伙伴关系。
All of which still suggests that, if there’s enough financial interests in Ukraine, they would prevent another Russian invasion.
所有这些仍然表明，如果乌克兰有足够的经济利益，他们将阻止俄罗斯再次入侵。
There would be financial pressure, yeah.
是的，会有经济压力。
43:38 Russia needs to be friends with somebody, either China or the West.
俄罗斯需要与某个人成为朋友，要么是中国，要么是西方。
I think a world that’s flourishing would have Russia trading and being friends with the West and the East.
我认为一个繁荣的世界会让俄罗斯与西方和东方进行贸易并成为朋友。
Thought it would be ideal.
认为这将是理想的。
44:00 It would be ideal if the regime in Moscow wanted it but that’s that not …
如果莫斯科政权想要的话，那就太理想了，但事实并非如此……
Again, you get into the thing of people accused of Russophobia but the …
再说一次，你陷入了被指控仇视俄罗斯的人的境地，但……
I do believe that, after the fall of the wall, Russia was ill-treated by the West, not treated with some of the courtesy that it required, I do think that.
我确实相信，在柏林墙倒塌之后，俄罗斯受到了西方的虐待，没有得到它所需要的一些礼遇，我确实这么认为。
And at the same time, that doesn’t justify the actions of Russia in the last 20 years.
与此同时，这并不能证明俄罗斯在过去20年的行为是合理的。
Right.
正确的。
44:38 But let’s descend from the surrealist to the realist, it’s very possible for Russia to be on the verge of military invasion of these nations and that being wrong while also not doing it because they’re afraid to hurt the partnerships with the West and with China.
但让我们从超现实主义转向现实主义，俄罗斯很可能处于对这些国家进行军事入侵的边缘，这是错误的，但也没有这样做，因为他们害怕损害与西方和中国的伙伴关系。
It’s possible.
这是可能的。
44:59 But the alliance they formed with this rogue alliance with China to a considerable extent, North Korea, not useful and Iran is something they seem to find bearable.
但他们与中国的这种流氓联盟在相当程度上与朝鲜结成的联盟，没有什么用处，而伊朗则似乎是他们觉得可以忍受的。
It’s not a very good alliance in most people’s analysis but it’s an alliance.
在大多数人的分析中，这不是一个很好的联盟，但它是一个联盟。
It’s bearable but I don’t think, maybe you disagree with this, I don’t think the Russian people or even Putin wants to be isolated from the West.
这是可以忍受的，但我不认为，也许你不同意这一点，我认为俄罗斯人民甚至普京都不想与西方隔离。
45:23 I think it wants to be friends with the West and with the East and with everybody, he just also wants Ukraine.
我认为它想与西方、东方和所有人成为朋友，他也想要乌克兰。
And there’s …
还有……
How does the Rolling Stones song go?
滚石乐队的歌曲怎么样？
Which one?
哪一个？
Not the satisfaction one.
不是那种满意的。
Sympathy with the Devil?
同情魔鬼？
That’s the one.
就是这个。
45:54 You got me on that one.
你让我明白了这一点。
No, there’s interests, whether it’s expanding the sphere of influence, that’s one thing on the table but that can be put aside if you want to maintain the partnerships with these nations.
不，有利益，是否扩大势力范围，这是摆在桌面上的一件事，但如果你想维持与这些国家的伙伴关系，可以把它放在一边。
And if Ukraine has strong economic partnerships with those nations, then that prevents Russia from invading.
如果乌克兰与这些国家建立了牢固的经济伙伴关系，那么就可以防止俄罗斯入侵。
I think the premise is one that I’ve seen before.
我认为这个前提是我以前见过的。
46:17 There was a famous …
曾经有一位著名的…
What was his name?
他叫什么名字？
Norman Angell.
诺曼·安吉尔.
He wrote this book which was a fantastic bestseller in his day where he believed that Europe would be in a period of endless Kantian peace because the prospect of European powers going to war was so economically unviable.
他写的这本书在他那个时代是一本非常畅销的书，他相信欧洲将处于一个无尽的康德和平时期，因为欧洲列强发动战争的前景在经济上是不可行的。
The book was reissued after World War I and I never got the second edition but I assume it was significantly rewritten.
这本书在第一次世界大战后重新发行，我从未得到第二版，但我认为它被大幅重写。
That’s a very cynical take that just because the book is wrong-
这是一种非常愤世嫉俗的看法，仅仅因为这本书是错误的——
I’m not saying that the book is wrong, I’m saying that the idea that cooperation on an economic and other levels is any significant preventative device to madness breaking out is not something I see.
我并不是说这本书是错误的，我是说经济和其他层面上的合作是防止疯狂爆发的任何重要预防措施的想法不是我所看到的。
46:56 It could deter some people, it could deter some very, very rational economically driven actors but it fails to take into account all of the other things that motivate people to go to war and to invade and to go mad.
它可以阻止一些人，它可以阻止一些非常非常理性的经济驱动的行为者，但它没有考虑到所有其他促使人们发动战争、入侵和发疯的因素。
Okay.
好的。
47:31 Well, I would argue that, in the 21st century, one of the reasons we have much fewer wars is because of the much more-
好吧，我认为，在 21 世纪，我们战争少得多的原因之一是因为——
Bomb.
炸弹。
Well, so there’s a few tools here on the geopolitical stage.
好吧，地缘政治舞台上有一些工具。
47:39 One of them is that we’re just much more interconnected economically, globally interconnected and that is always a present pressure on the world to keep peace.
其中之一是，我们在经济上、全球上的联系更加紧密，这始终是世界维持和平的当前压力。
There’s a lot of money to be made from peace, there’s also a lot of money to be made from war.
和平可以赚很多钱，战争也可以赚很多钱。
There’s a lot of interest, attention and I’m just presenting one of the tools that a leader should be using.
有很多兴趣和关注，我只是介绍领导者应该使用的工具之一。
The alternative is, what, military force?
另一种选择是，什么，军事力量？
That is an interesting one, sometimes a useful one but, unfortunately, it has its downsides also.
这是一个有趣的方法，有时很有用，但不幸的是，它也有其缺点。
And after three years of war and the hundreds of thousands dead, you have to start wondering what are the options on the table.
经过三年的战争和数十万人的死亡，你必须开始想知道摆在桌面上的选择是什么。
I agree.
我同意。
48:28 I’m obviously for economic cooperation but my only caveat is not to think that that is something which is of ultimate interest or even at the top of the list of interests of despots, tyrants, extremists who want something else.
我显然支持经济合作，但我唯一需要注意的是，不要认为这是具有最终利益的东西，甚至是那些想要其他东西的独裁者、暴君、极端分子的首要利益。
Yeah, but can you read the mind of Vladimir Putin?
是的，但是你能读懂弗拉基米尔·普京的心思吗？
No.
不。
A lot of the ideas I hear about peace is Putin bad, victory must be achieved, NATO membership required.
我听到的很多关于和平的想法都是普京不好的，必须取得胜利，必须加入北约。
49:02 But what do you have to do?
但你必须做什么呢？
You have to come to the table to end the killing is one and, two, have different ideas of how to have a non-zero chance of peace.
你必须走到谈判桌上来结束杀戮，一是，二是对于如何获得非零的和平机会有不同的想法。
Go on.
继续。
So, the options are …
所以，选项是……
49:31 It seems to me the only option, not the only option, but the likeliest option is a lot of strong economic partnerships.
在我看来，这是唯一的选择，不是唯一的选择，但最有可能的选择是建立许多强有力的经济伙伴关系。
There’s, of course, there other radical options.
当然，还有其他激进的选择。
There’s Russia joining NATO or something like this or there’s flirting with World War III essentially, giving nukes to Ukraine or something like this.
俄罗斯加入北约或类似的事情，或者实质上与第三次世界大战调情，向乌克兰提供核武器或类似的事情。
There’s crazy stuff or a totally new military alliance with France and Britain and Germany and European nations and Ukraine or some weird network of military power that threatens Russia in some way or maybe some big breakthrough partnership between India, China and Ukraine, something like this, just some really out there ideas.
有一些疯狂的东西，或者与法国、英国、德国、欧洲国家和乌克兰建立全新的军事联盟，或者某种奇怪的军事力量网络以某种方式威胁俄罗斯，或者印度、中国和乌克兰之间可能存在某种重大突破性的伙伴关系，诸如此类，只是一些真正的想法。
And I think that’s how the world finds a balance and realigns itself in interesting ways.
我认为这就是世界如何找到平衡并以有趣的方式重新调整自身的方式。
No, it could be.
不，可能是。
50:33 I hope your idea is right, I think it’s about what’s certainly the most peaceful way for this to be resolved.
我希望你的想法是正确的，我认为这肯定是解决这个问题的最和平的方式。
My only caveat, as I say, is and also never forget to factor in that people want different things in this world and some people don’t dream as you dream.
正如我所说，我唯一的警告是，也永远不要忘记，人们在这个世界上想要不同的东西，有些人的梦想与你的梦想不同。
I think we’ll talk about that in your new book, Death Cults, that one is an easier one for me to understand to the story that you’re describing.
我想我们会在你的新书《死亡崇拜》中讨论这一点，这本书对我来说更容易理解你所描述的故事。
51:02 I am more hesitant to assign psychopathy to leaders of major nations.
我更犹豫是否要把精神病归咎于主要国家的领导人。
Sure.
当然。
51:20 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
是啊，是啊，是啊。
I’m not, by any means, urging you to regard Vladimir Putin as a millenarian madman who cannot be in any way understood.
无论如何，我并不是在敦促你将弗拉基米尔·普京视为一个无论如何也无法理解的千禧年疯子。
I think he could be negotiated and reasoned with.
我认为可以与他谈判和讲道理。
From your lips to God’s ears.
从你的嘴唇到上帝的耳朵。
Can you steer me on the case for and then against Zelenskyy as the right leader for Ukraine at this moment?
您能否指导我支持和反对泽伦斯基作为乌克兰目前的正确领导人？
51:38 Is he the right person to take it to the point of peace?
他是推动此事走向和平的合适人选吗？
We’ll see.
我们会看到的。
51:48 If he can, then of course he is.
如果他可以，那他当然可以。
He deserves enormous respect for galvanizing his people, for being elected in the first place, for galvanizing his nation at a time of incredible peril, for playing the international game of getting support for his country well.
他应该受到极大的尊重，因为他激励了他的人民，因为他首先当选，因为他在难以置信的危险时刻激励了他的国家，因为他在国际比赛中为他的国家赢得了支持。
And sometimes the person who does that, not that there are many people like that, can be the person who also brings about a peace deal and sometimes not.
有时这样做的人，并不是说有很多这样的人，也可能是带来和平协议的人，有时却不是。
I think there’s a degree to which he may have seen too much suffering of the people of the land he loves to be able to sit down at a table with a world leader who did the destruction and to be able to-
我认为，在某种程度上，他可能已经看到了他所热爱的土地上的人民遭受的太多苦难，他能够与一位造成破坏的世界领导人坐在一起，并且能够——
That is very hard.
那是非常困难的。
…
……
52:38 compromise on anything.
对任何事情都妥协。
That’s possible.
这是可能的。
52:43 Again, it puts the onus on him though.
不过，这又让他承担了责任。
It slightly presupposes that Putin doesn’t have the same human instinct on that.
它稍微预设了普京在这方面没有同样的人类本能。
It is extremely hard, I’ve noticed this in a lot of conflicts, it’s extremely hard the way in which outsiders come in and others who haven’t seen what you’ve seen or gone through what you’ve gone through and say, “You know, it’s time to get around the negotiating table and just …” You think you didn’t see what I saw or you didn’t go through what I went through, who are you to tell me?
这是非常困难的，我在很多冲突中都注意到了这一点，这是非常困难的方式，局外人进来，其他没有看到你所看到或经历过你所经历的事情的人说，“你知道，是时候绕过谈判桌了，只是……”你认为你没有看到我所看到的，或者你没有经历我所经历的，你是谁来告诉我？
It comes back to that thing with the visitor from the land of war and the visitor from the land of peace.
回到那件事上，来自战争之地的访客和来自和平之地的访客。
The visitor from the land of peace can easily talk about getting around negotiating tables but the visitor from the land of war has seen other things and it’s very hard for somebody who hasn’t seen it to tell the person who has that they should act differently.
来自和平之地的访客可以轻松地谈论绕过谈判桌，但来自战争之地的访客已经看到了其他事情，对于没有见过的人来说，很难告诉见过的人他们应该采取不同的行动。
And the sad thing about humanity is both the person from the land of peace and the person from the land of war are right.
而人类的可悲之处在于，来自和平之地的人和来自战争之地的人都是对的。
Yes, that’s a struggle, that’s definitely a struggle.
是的，这是一场斗争，这绝对是一场斗争。
53:55 It’s like asking somebody to forgive, I’ve seen that at a lot of ends of conflicts.
这就像请求某人原谅，我在很多冲突的结局中都看到过这种情况。
People say, “You know, the important thing is that we forgive and move on,” and then the other person says, “You know, your child didn’t die of shrapnel wounds.”
人们说，“你知道，重要的是我们原谅并继续前进，”然后另一个人说，“你知道，你的孩子不是死于弹片伤。”
Yeah, this is …
是的，这是……
54:18 I got a lot of heat for an interview I did with Zelenskyy.
我对泽伦斯基的采访引起了很大的热议。
By the way, people privately, the people that message me is all love and support and the people that disagree in Ukraine, soldiers.
顺便说一句，私下里，给我发信息的人都是爱和支持，而在乌克兰持不同意见的人是士兵。
People online are ruthless, they’re misrepresenting me, they’re lying about-
网上的人很无情，他们歪曲我，他们撒谎——
People online are ruthless and misrepresenting and lying?
网上的人都是无情的、歪曲事实和撒谎的吗？
I know, yeah.
我知道，是的。
Good God, Lex, you’ve discovered a new phenomenon.
天啊，莱克斯，你发现了一个新现象。
I’m a real radical intellectual.
我是一个真正的激进知识分子。
Nothing misses your eye.
没有什么能错过你的眼睛。
I see the truth and I’m unafraid to point it out.
我看到了真相，并且无所畏惧地指出它。
54:50 No, there’s a degree …
不，有一个学位...
This idea that you need to compromise with the person who the leader of a nation you’re at war with and, in so doing, to some degree, are forgiving their actions.
这种想法是，你需要与与你交战的国家的领导人妥协，并在某种程度上原谅他们的行为。
Because the actual feeling you have is you want it to be fair and the definition of fair when you’ve seen that much suffering is for him and everybody around him and maybe even all of the people on the other side to just die because you’ve seen towards suffering.
因为你真正的感觉是你希望它是公平的，而当你看到那么多痛苦时，公平的定义是让他和他周围的每个人，甚至可能是另一边的所有人都死去，因为你已经看到了痛苦。
But the other side of that is, yes, there’s children that have died but you coming to the negotiation table-
但另一方面是，是的，有些孩子已经死了，但你却来到了谈判桌前——
Will stop other children from dying.
会阻止其他孩子死亡。
55:39 Yes, of course.
是的当然。
And so, there is …
所以，有……
55:41 You had this way of speaking about it, embodying that perspective that it’s naive to say to come to the negotiation table and it is for a person from the land of war.
你用这样的方式谈论这件事，体现了这样一种观点，即对于一个来自战争之地的人来说，说来到谈判桌前是天真的。
But the very smart, intelligent and not naive person from the land of peace that is often right in some deep sense about the long arc of history, for them it is the right thing to come to the negotiation table to end the more killing.
但来自和平之地的非常聪明、聪明而不天真的人，在历史的长弧上往往在某种深刻的意义上是正确的，对他们来说，来到谈判桌结束更多的杀戮是正确的事情。
The one thing I would add to that though is don’t forget that it also depends on whether or not there’s a clear shot of winning.
我要补充的一件事是，不要忘记，这还取决于是否有明确的获胜机会。
Sure.
当然。
If there’s a clear shot of winning and that’s the most important.
如果有明显的获胜机会，那是最重要的。
56:21 The most important thing in wars is not final negotiations or anything like that, it’s simply winning and losing.
战争中最重要的不是最终的谈判或类似的事情，而是输赢。
And if you have a clear shot of winning and you can take it and you’re near it, then having somebody else come in and saying why not stop just before victory is very hard.
如果你有明确的获胜希望，并且你可以抓住它并且你已经接近它，那么让其他人进来并说为什么不在胜利之前停下来是非常困难的。
That’s one of the many, many complexities of the conflict we’re talking about.
这是我们正在谈论的冲突的众多复杂性之一。
You know what’s the other big complexity of that?
你知道其中另一个大的复杂性是什么吗？
56:50 Because the clear shot of winning is like a man walking through the desert seeing water.
因为清晰的获胜镜头就像一个人走过沙漠看到水一样。
During war, it really is an illusion.
在战争期间，这确实是一种幻觉。
So, here’s what happens.
所以，这就是发生的事情。
The really complicated aspect of negotiation is, in order to negotiate peace from a place of strength, you have to have victory in sight.
谈判真正复杂的一点是，为了从一个有实力的地方进行和平谈判，你必须看到胜利。
Yes.
是的。
And so, the temptation from that position is to not negotiate, is to keep pushing forward to achieve victory.
因此，这个立场的诱惑是不谈判，而是继续前进以取得胜利。
57:19 And this, I would say, hindsight is 20/20 But this is the failure in ’22 and two occasions to achieve, to negotiate a ceasefire and peace.
我想说，事后看来，这是20/20，但这是22年的失败，也是两次实现停火与和平谈判的失败。
One in the spring because Ukraine was in a real big, I would say, position of strength having fended off the Russian forces around Kiev.
一次是在春天，因为我想说，乌克兰在基辅周围抵御了俄罗斯军队，处于真正的强大地位。
That’s one.
这是一个。
And then, as you mentioned, in the fall of ’22 with Kherson and Kharkiv, had a lot of military success, they were in a place of strength.
然后，正如你提到的，22 年秋天，赫尔松和哈尔科夫取得了很多军事成功，他们处于优势地位。
And from that place, they’ve decided to keep going because victory was in sight but that was also an opportunity to make peace.
从那时起，他们决定继续前进，因为胜利就在眼前，但这也是一个实现和平的机会。
It’s perfectly possible, yes.
这是完全有可能的，是的。
That’s the hard thing.
这是困难的事情。
It’s very hard, it’s all hard.
非常难，一切都很难。
58:15 But again, victory can be won in wars and is often won in wars and, you’re right, they can also grind on because nobody has the capability to make a breakthrough.
但同样，胜利可以在战争中赢得，而且往往是在战争中赢得的，你是对的，他们也可以继续磨砺，因为没有人有能力取得突破。
It’s a case …
这是一个案例……
The wisdom about civil wars tends to be that they burn out after about 10 years or so for similar reasons.
关于内战的智慧往往是，由于类似的原因，内战在大约十年左右后就会消失。
When you’re in the war, can you actually know that a victory can be won?
当你身处战争之中时，你真的知道能够赢得胜利吗？
It’s a very good question.
这是一个非常好的问题。
58:49 And you mean troops on the battlefield or military leaders or political leaders?
你指的是战场上的部队还是军事领导人或政治领导人？
Military and political leaders.
军事和政治领导人。
58:56 It just feels like, like I said, man in the desert seeing water.
就像我说的，感觉就像沙漠中的人看到水一样。
I think there’s a sense that victory is so close, there’s times in a war when you feel like victory is close.
我认为有一种感觉，胜利是如此接近，在战争中有时你会觉得胜利已经接近了。
No, you’re right.
不，你是对的。
59:11 It’s [inaudible 00:59:13].
这是[听不清 00:59:13]。
And then it just slips away.
然后它就溜走了。
Yes, it’s an interesting insight.
是的，这是一个有趣的见解。
59:14 It’s like the way in which there’s a force in nature which is that, if you amass an army, amassing it will pull you in to using it.
这就像自然界中有一种力量，如果你聚集了一支军队，聚集它就会吸引你使用它。
Extremely hard to amass an army somewhere and then say let’s go back.
在某个地方集结一支军队然后说我们回去是极其困难的。
Yes, you’re right, no, it’s one of many, many interesting aspects to warfare.
是的，你是对的，不，这是战争的许多有趣的方面之一。
I think the sad thing about successful wars, at least in the modern day, is it takes a great military leader which I would argue that Zelenskyy really unified Ukraine in this fight in the beginning of the war.
我认为成功的战争的可悲之处在于，至少在现代，它需要一位伟大的军事领导人，我认为泽连斯基在战争开始时的这场战斗中真正统一了乌克兰。
59:42 You have to be that and, like you said, after you amass the army and have military success, to be able to step back and make peace.
你必须做到这一点，就像你说的，在你集结军队并取得军事胜利之后，才能退后一步，实现和平。
Those two just don’t often go hand in hand because, again, as a wartime leader, especially one who has seen the suffering first hand, walking away is tough.
这两者并不经常齐头并进，因为作为一名战时领导人，尤其是亲眼目睹苦难的领导人，走开是艰难的。
Especially, also combined with that, just the realities of war where there is probably corruption, that there is things, once the war ends, there has to be investigations.
特别是，结合这一点，战争的现实可能存在腐败，有些事情，一旦战争结束，就必须进行调查。
Because the war wasn’t won, you might not turn out to be, when the history looks at it, the good guy and a leader doesn’t want to …
因为战争没有获胜，所以当历史回顾时，你可能不会获胜，好人和领导者不想……
A leader always wants to be the good guy.
领导者总是想成为好人。
1:00:49 So, there’s just all psychological complexities that are …
所以，所有的心理复杂性都是……
And you look at this whole picture, in a basic sense, if you want Ukraine to flourish, if you want humanity to flourish, you just ask the question, okay, so what is the thing I would like to see.
从基本意义上看，如果你希望乌克兰繁荣，如果你希望人类繁荣，你只需问这个问题，好吧，那么我想看到什么。
There’s so many historical analogies you can give but just surely not rewarding Putin’s actions in any way would be a good way to deter him and other dictators from trying to grab land in the future.
你可以给出很多历史类比，但可以肯定的是，不以任何方式奖励普京的行为将是阻止他和其他独裁者未来试图夺取土地的好方法。
So, yeah, but this is nuanced because it’s very probably good to be the boring person at the party that says dictatorships are bad, democracies are good, many of the ideals of the West are good.
所以，是的，但这很微妙，因为在党内成为一个无聊的人，说独裁是坏的，民主是好的，西方的许多理想是好的，这很可能是件好事。
Mostly the better.
大多是越好。
Better?
更好的？
1:01:50 Yes.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
That sounds like animal farm but, yes, two legs better.
这听起来像动物农场，但是，是的，两条腿更好。
1:01:53 But yes, democracy is better and invading countries is bad but World War III is bad too.
但是，是的，民主更好，入侵国家很糟糕，但第三次世界大战也很糟糕。
So, after you say something is bad, what’s the next step?
那么，当你说某件事不好之后，下一步是什么？
Because military intervention in a lot of these conflicts-
因为军事干预了很多这样的冲突——
It’ll be a bad deterrence.
这将是一种不好的威慑。
Yeah, but what’s effective deterrence?
是啊，但什么是有效威慑呢？
That we’re going to have to keep going over for a long time to come.
我们将不得不在未来很长一段时间内继续进行下去。
My question is how can we achieve peace in April?
我的问题是我们如何才能在四月实现和平？
1:02:22 In May?
在五月？
The adults at the table all seem to tell me, “Well, it’s a process, it’s complicated,” it just feels like this is a thing that might go into the next winter and there’s still maybe initial ceasefire and then ceasefire is broken and there’s more people dying-
餐桌上的成年人似乎都告诉我，“嗯，这是一个过程，很复杂，”只是感觉这件事可能会持续到下一个冬天，也许最初的停火仍然存在，然后停火被打破，有更多的人死亡——
For sure.
当然。
…
……
1:02:50 and it’s that mess.
就是这样一团糟。
It seems like civility and politeness ignores the fact that people are dying every single day.
文明和礼貌似乎忽略了每天都有人死去的事实。
Of course, we are all …
当然，我们都是……
1:02:59 Almost everybody, not everybody but almost everyone, would like the killing to stop immediately, of course.
当然，几乎每个人，不是每个人，而是几乎每个人，都希望杀戮立即停止。
No, I think that is the boring thing at the party.
不，我认为这是聚会上最无聊的事情。
1:03:06 Yes, but they don’t say it often enough, not often …
是的，但他们说得不够频繁，不经常……
There has to be a frustration-
一定会有一种挫败感——
Perhaps I should say it more.
也许我应该多说一点。
There has to be a frustration.
一定会有一种挫败感。
1:03:13 I don’t understand why Putin, Zelenskyy and Trump can’t just meet in a room together without signing anything, leaders meeting and discussing and the human connection, there’s so many layers of diplomats.
我不明白为什么普京、泽连斯基和特朗普不能在不签署任何文件的情况下在一个房间里会面，领导人会面并讨论和人际关系，有这么多外交官的层次。
It’s the problem I have with the managerial class, they schedule meetings really well, they don’t get shit done and I would love it if people got shit done.
这是我在管理阶层遇到的问题，他们把会议安排得很好，但他们没有完成任何事情，如果人们完成了任务，我会很高兴。
So, the soldiers get shit done, they’re fighting the reality of the war and then the leaders have the capacity to get shit done on the scale of nations and geopolitics.
因此，士兵们完成了任务，他们正在与战争的现实作斗争，然后领导人就有能力在国家和地缘政治的规模上完成任务。
But these diplomatic meetings and this-
但这些外交会议和这个——
No, I agree.
不，我同意。
1:03:55 I share your frustration about it, at the same time, I think …
我和你一样对此感到沮丧，同时，我认为……
I share your frustration because I’ve seen it all, a lot of-
我和你一样感到沮丧，因为我已经看到了这一切，很多——
1:04:01 I share your frustration because I’ve seen it, a lot of it in my own eyes.
我和你一样感到沮丧，因为我亲眼所见，很多都是这样的。
There was a [inaudible 01:04:09] the other week and they were hit just after I left the base.
前一周发生了一次[听不清 01:04:09]，我离开基地后他们就被击中了。
You wouldn’t believe what a thermobaric bomb can do to the human body.
你不会相信温压炸弹会对人体造成什么影响。
And I share your frustration with that.
我和你一样对此感到沮丧。
1:04:23 At the same time, one of the things that happens if you are rushing is that you do, and I’ve seen this elsewhere, you will put pressure on the people you can pressurize, and you will not put enough pressure on the people you can’t pressurize.
与此同时，如果你着急的话，会发生的事情之一就是你这样做了，我在其他地方看到过这种情况，你会给那些你可以施压的人施加压力，而你不会给那些你不能施压的人施加足够的压力。
That is one of the worrying things that could happen with this.
这是可能发生的令人担忧的事情之一。
Simply, America can put extraordinary diplomatic, financial, intelligence, military pressure on Ukraine, and it can put significant pressure on Putin, but it’s much easier to pressure Zelenskyy.
简而言之，美国可以对乌克兰施加非凡的外交、金融、情报和军事压力，也可以对普京施加巨大压力，但向泽伦斯基施加压力要容易得多。
1:05:11 That’s one of the many things that makes it harder is that the temptation to rush for peace, accepting that peace is the most desirable thing and accepting the horrors of war, which we can linger on, but accepting all that.
让事情变得更加困难的众多因素之一就是急于追求和平的诱惑，接受和平是最令人向往的事情，接受战争的恐怖，我们可以继续忍受战争的恐怖，但接受这一切。
If somebody says, “We’ve got to get peace today,” and the three of them around a table, the most likely thing is that it’ll be the person who you can pressure most easily, who will be the person that you pressure, and as a result, have an outcome, which, yes, might stop the killing as soon as possible, but might also set up a situation which rewards the aggressor and effectively punishes the victim.
如果有人说，“我们今天必须实现和平”，而他们三个人围坐在一张桌子旁，最有可能的情况是，这个人将是你最容易施加压力的人，他将是你施加压力的人，结果，会产生一个结果，是的，可能会尽快停止杀戮，但也可能会建立一种奖励侵略者并有效惩罚受害者的局面。
That’s an extremely ugly and common thing to happen.
这是一件极其丑陋且常见的事情。
Yeah, and that’s the other boring thing to say, the boring truth, that the easy shortcut here is to punish Ukraine, and you just have to not do it.
是的，这是另一件无聊的事情，无聊的事实，最简单的捷径就是惩罚乌克兰，但你必须不这样做。
Let’s keep being the boring people of the party.
让我们继续做党里无聊的人吧。
Yeah.
是的。
1:06:11 Well, nobody’s going to invite us.
好吧，没有人会邀请我们。
All right.
好的。
Let’s go from one complicated conflict to perhaps an even more complicated one.
让我们从一个复杂的冲突来看一个可能更复杂的冲突。
Israel and Palestine.
以色列和巴勒斯坦。
Can you take me through what happened on October 7th as you understand it and as you outline at the beginning of the book?
您能否按照您的理解以及您在本书开头概述的方式向我讲述 10 月 7 日发生的事情？
Well, the book, On Democracies and Death Cults, is a mixture of firsthand reporting and observation interviews and a wider reflection, not just on the war that’s been going on since the 7th of October, but the war that’s been going on a lot longer.
嗯，《论民主与死亡邪教》这本书是第一手报道和观察采访以及更广泛反思的结合，不仅是对 10 月 7 日以来一直在发生的战争，而且是对这场持续更长时间的战争。
1:06:43 Also, I suppose on what, for me, is one of the overwhelming questions which I’m sure we’ll get to, which is the reaction in the rest of the world.
另外，我想对我来说，什么是我确信我们会解决的压倒性问题之一，这就是世界其他地方的反应。
1:07:09 Obviously, on the 7th itself, it was a brigade-sized attack on Israel from Gaza.
显然，7日本身就是从加沙对以色列发动的一次旅级袭击。
Hamas broke through the security fence and attacked all the softest targets they could.
哈马斯突破了安全围栏，攻击了所有他们能攻击的最软的目标。
They swiftly overwhelmed things, like the observation base in Nahal Oz.
他们很快就占领了一些东西，比如纳哈尔奥兹的观察基地。
They ran through the communities in the south, very peaceful, peacenik [inaudible 01:07:41] free communities of the kibbutzim as they’re called, the communities, and murdered and raped and burned and kidnapped.
他们跑过南方的社区，非常和平的、和平的[听不清 01:07:41] 基布兹的自由社区，正如他们所说的那样，社区，被谋杀、强奸、烧毁和绑架。
1:07:52 Of course, they, from their point of view, had the great good fortune of also coming across hundreds of young people dancing in the early hours of the morning at a dance party, and rampaged through that with RPGs and Kalashnikovs and grenades and hammers and more, and got within, well, 20 kilometers into Israel, on places like Ofakim and Sderot, important towns, and carried out their massacres there as well.
当然，从他们的角度来看，他们也很幸运，在舞会上凌晨遇到了数百名跳舞的年轻人，并拿着火箭弹、卡拉什尼科夫冲锋枪、手榴弹和锤子等横冲直撞，进入以色列20公里以内的重要城镇奥法基姆和斯德洛特等地，并在那里进行了屠杀。
1:08:25 We now know that the plan was that Hezbollah did the same thing from the north.
我们现在知道真主党的计划是从北方做同样的事情。
Hezbollah joined in the war within 24 hours by starting firing rockets again in very large numbers into northern Israel from southern Lebanon, but the plan was that they would do the same thing from the north and carry out similar massacres there and effectively be able to meet in the middle and garrote Israel from the center.
真主党在24小时内加入了战争，再次从黎巴嫩南部向以色列北部发射大量火箭弹，但他们的计划是从北部做同样的事情，在那里进行类似的屠杀，并有效地在中部会合，从中心绞死以色列。
1:08:52 The interesting reason why I think, it’ll be found out in the future, but why they didn’t coordinate better was Hamas didn’t trust any line of communication to Hezbollah to let them know exactly when they were going to do it that wouldn’t be intercepted.
我认为有趣的原因是，将来会发现这一点，但他们没有更好地协调的原因是，哈马斯不相信与真主党的任何通信线路，让他们确切地知道他们什么时候会做不会被拦截的事情。
The Iranian revolutionary government in Tehran, which obviously funds Hamas and Hezbollah and trains and arms knew of the plan.
德黑兰的伊朗革命政府显然知道这个计划，该政府显然为哈马斯和真主党以及火车和武器提供资金。
It was a very successful attempt to annihilate the state, but they didn’t get close to that, but they got worryingly closer than people might’ve thought they were capable of.
这是一次非常成功的消灭国家的尝试，但他们并没有接近这一目标，但他们比人们想象的更接近了他们的能力。
1:09:27 I think from the Israeli side, it was obviously one of the most, if not the most, catastrophic intelligence and military failure since the foundation of the state.
我认为从以色列方面来看，这显然是建国以来最严重的情报和军事失败之一，甚至是最严重的灾难性情报和军事失败。
I think there are several reasons why.
我认为有几个原因。
One is a perception problem, what a lot of military commanders and others described to me as the conception.
一是观念问题，很多军事指挥官和其他人向我描述的就是观念问题。
The conception that had prevailed in Israel for some years in security, military establishment was that Hamas were content with being corrupt and governing Gaza and lining their pockets and living in Qatar and becoming billionaires, but that like many other terrorist groups and cults, that they would end up becoming just corrupt and not losing their ideology, but the ideology becomes secondary.
多年来在以色列安全和军事机构中盛行的观念是，哈马斯满足于腐败、统治加沙、中饱私囊、生活在卡塔尔并成为亿万富翁，但像许多其他恐怖组织和邪教一样，他们最终只会变得腐败，不会失去意识形态，但意识形态变得次要。
That’s the first thing was there was just a massive era of the conception in Israel.
首先，以色列有一个巨大的受孕时代。
1:10:33 And then, the multiple manifold security and military failures of the day and leading up to the day.
然后，当天以及直到今天的多重安全和军事失败。
There already have been quite a lot of people held to account for that and their, doubtless, will be in the future as well.
已经有相当多的人为此承担责任，毫无疑问，他们将来也会被追究责任。
The single thing I heard, which I heard most and which was most distressing in a way, was the number of people who described to me, who survived the massacres in the south, who said that they’d said to their children, “Don’t worry, the Army will be here in minutes,” and they weren’t.
我听到的一件事，在某种程度上是我听到最多的，也是最令人痛苦的，是有很多人向我描述，他们是南方大屠杀的幸存者，他们说他们对自己的孩子说：“别担心，军队几分钟后就会到这里，”但他们没有。
In many places, it was many hours until the army got there.
在许多地方，军队要等好几个小时才能到达。
There are reasons for that.
这是有原因的。
There are some reasons that will be military failings, leadership failings.
有一些原因是军事失败、领导失败。
Other things were very, I discovered, were very human failings.
我发现，其他事情是非常人性的弱点。
I don’t want overstress the failure of the army, because actually certain units and things got down very fast.
我不想过分强调军队的失败，因为实际上某些单位和事物很快就崩溃了。
There’s a unit, Duvdevan, who got down to the junction by within about an hour, 90 minutes of the massacres starting, and joined in the fight.
有一个叫杜夫德万的部队，在屠杀开始后大约一小时九十分钟内到达了路口，并加入了战斗。
And then, there were self-starters, who I write about in the book, extraordinary people who just broke orders and just realized the magnitude of what was happening and said, “We’re needed in the south.
然后，还有一些自我启动者，我在书中提到了他们，他们是非凡的人，他们刚刚违反了命令，刚刚意识到正在发生的事情的严重性，并说：“南方需要我们。
Go.” And fought very hard for hours, days in some cases.
走吧。”在某些情况下，我们会奋力战斗数小时，甚至数天。
1:12:11 But the complexities on the ground were unbelievable, I mean, as usually happens in warfare, but what they call the fog of war is a very real thing.
但我的意思是，现场的复杂性令人难以置信，就像战争中经常发生的那样，但他们所说的战争迷雾是非常真实的事情。
You can see it in hindsight, but you can’t see when you are in it.
你可以事后看到它，但当你身在其中时却看不到。
And one of the things that made it very complicated was, for instance, Hamas coming in, taking uniforms off dead Israelis, wearing them, coming in with Israeli-style apparatus on them.
使事情变得非常复杂的事情之一是，例如，哈马斯进来，从死去的以色列人身上脱下制服，穿上它们，带着以色列风格的装备进来。
1:12:47 There’s a Muslim doctor I quote in the book, I interviewed, who describes how he was going to his…
我在书中引用了一位穆斯林医生的话，我采访了他，他描述了他将如何去他的......
He’s an Israeli Muslim Arab, and he’s a doctor.
他是一名以色列穆斯林阿拉伯人，也是一名医生。
He was going to his shift at the hospital at 6:30 in the morning.
早上6点30分，他要去医院值班。
The rockets start coming in because the rocket started first and then the full invasion.
火箭开始进来，因为火箭先开始，然后全面入侵。
He described to me how…
他向我描述了如何……
He’s one of the members of this group, United Hatzalah, which is a first responders group, and they get an alert and it tells them that a car has crashed nearby, and they put on their first aid kit and so on and go.
他是这个小组 United Hatzalah 的成员之一，这是一个急救小组，他们收到警报，告诉他们附近有一辆汽车发生车祸，他们穿上急救箱等就出发了。
1:13:26 He got one of those alerts at one of the junctions, and realized there was a car that something had happened and there were some dead bodies.
他在一个路口收到了其中一个警报，并意识到有一辆汽车发生了什么事，并且有一些尸体。
He stops and he sees these men dressed as soldiers, and he’s wearing his Hatzalah gear and they start firing at him.
他停下来，看到这些人穿着士兵的衣服，他穿着哈扎拉装备，他们开始向他开枪。
And he just thinks, “What the hell?
他只是想：“到底是什么？
What the hell is going on?” They turned out to be Hamas dressed as Israeli soldiers.
到底是怎么回事？原来他们是打扮成以色列士兵的哈马斯。
They used him as a human shield to try to protect from any air assault.
他们把他当作人体盾牌，试图抵御任何空袭。
In the end, they shot him and left him, and he survived.
最后，他们开枪射杀了他并离开了他，他活了下来。
He’s a very, very brave man.
他是一个非常非常勇敢的人。
1:14:06 So, there was a lot of confusion like that.
所以，有很多这样的混乱。
There was a girl whose father I interviewed, she was at the Nova party.
我采访了一个女孩的父亲，她参加了 Nova 派对。
I met him at one of the reunions of the party and the weeks after, and the reunions of the survivors and the family and so on.
我在一次聚会和几周后的聚会上认识了他，还有幸存者和家人的聚会等等。
He described how in the last moments of his daughter’s life, she phoned him on her phone, like a lot of people.
他描述了在女儿生命的最后时刻，她像很多人一样用手机给他打电话。
He reassured her that Army would get there and so on.
他向她保证军队会到达那里等等。
Her boyfriend was shot in the head and was lying on her lap, and she was obviously panicked.
她的男朋友头部中弹，躺在她的腿上，她显然很惊慌。
They’d managed to get into a car and escape the party, but they went to a community where they thought they’d be safe in the south of Israel.
他们设法钻进汽车并逃离了聚会，但他们去了以色列南部的一个他们认为安全的社区。
1:14:50 They were told to stay where they were by somebody who she said was a policeman, and he wasn’t the policeman.
她说是警察，但他不是警察，他们被告知留在原地。
He was Hamas dressed as police and she died.
他是装扮成警察的哈马斯，而她死了。
She was shot and killed as well.
她也被枪杀。
So, there was a lot of confusion like that.
所以，有很多这样的混乱。
Hopefully, the world will find out exactly what went wrong, Israel will find out exactly what went wrong that led to this catastrophe, but, I mean, it was a complete catastrophe.
希望世界能够找出到底出了什么问题，以色列也能找出到底出了什么问题导致了这场灾难，但是，我的意思是，这是一场彻底的灾难。
Do you have a sense of how such an intelligence failure could have happened?
你知道这样的情报失误是如何发生的吗？
1:15:23 There’s a bit of a temptation to go into conspiracy land, because it’s such a giant intelligence failure.
有一点进入阴谋之地的诱惑，因为这是一个巨大的情报失败。
It seems that there is some manipulation on the inside for political reasons or for-
似乎出于政治原因或出于-
Yes.
是的。
1:15:41 You don’t need to go into conspiracy land.
你不需要进入阴谋之地。
I think there are people who say that there were parts of the intelligence network and so on that were withholding the information.
我认为有人说情报网络的某些部分隐瞒了信息。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
Again, people will find out there’s an awful lot of politics inside Israel, and it’s hard to know that at this stage.
同样，人们会发现以色列内部存在大量的政治因素，而现阶段很难知道这一点。
I think most people are still Israeli and not Israeli, including people who are anti-Israel, who just believe that Israeli military, and particularly intelligence dominance, is so strong that there must have been some kind of conspiracy.
我认为大多数人仍然是以色列人而不是以色列人，包括反以色列的人，他们只是相信以色列的军事，特别是情报主导地位如此强大，以至于一定存在某种阴谋。
Otherwise, how could this have happened?
不然怎么会发生这样的事呢？
1:16:23 I don’t think you need to go into that.
我认为你不需要讨论这个。
I mean, for instance, some of the young women at the observation base are on the record.
我的意思是，例如，观察基地的一些年轻女性已被记录在案。
I’ve spoken to them myself, who said that they had been warning in the weeks running up to the 7th, that they were seeing maneuvers and training by the border, which suggested that Hamas was going to do something like this.
我本人曾与他们交谈过，他们说他们在 7 日之前的几周内一直在警告，他们看到边境有演习和训练，这表明哈马斯将要做这样的事情。
They say that they were ignored.
他们说他们被忽视了。
Though you speak to some of the more senior commanders about that, and they say the thing is that this stuff was happening all the time, so it’s very hard to know at the moment.
尽管你与一些更高级的指挥官谈论过此事，他们说这种事情一直在发生，所以目前很难知道。
Can you talk through your understanding of who and what Hamas is, its history and the governing ideology of this group?
您能否谈谈您对哈马斯是谁、什么、它的历史以及该组织的统治意识形态的理解？
Well, Hamas, in a way, quite easy to understand, because they say what their ambitions are, they say what their beliefs are.
嗯，哈马斯，在某种程度上，很容易理解，因为他们说他们的野心是什么，他们说他们的信仰是什么。
1:17:15 They’ve said it from their governing charter onwards.
他们从执政章程开始就这么说了。
And you also have the advantage with Hamas that they, as if we’re trying to understand them, is that they tend to do what they say and act on what they believe.
哈马斯还有一个优势，就好像我们试图理解他们一样，他们倾向于言出必行，信守承诺。
1:17:37 The primary aim of Hamas is to destroy the State of Israel and [inaudible 01:17:42].
哈马斯的主要目标是摧毁以色列国 [听不清 01:17:42]。
They’re not an unusual group, sadly.
遗憾的是，他们并不是一个不寻常的群体。
The bit of it that is hard for some people to understand, I think, is that they really do mean what they say and that they really do mean what they say they want to do.
我认为，有些人很难理解的是，他们确实是言出必行，而且他们确实是言出必行。
I give a number of examples in the book of this, but, I mean, the most obvious is the case of Yahya Al-Sinwar, the Hamas leader who is generally regarded as having orchestrated and arranged the 7th of October.
我在书中举了很多这方面的例子，但是，我的意思是，最明显的是哈马斯领导人叶海亚·辛瓦尔（Yahya Al-Sinwar）的例子，人们普遍认为他精心策划和安排了 10 月 7 日事件。
1:18:19 We know a fair amount about him because he was in prison in Israel in the 2000s for murdering Palestinians in Gaza, and he was released in the prisoner swap for the…
我们对他了解很多，因为他在 2000 年代因在加沙谋杀巴勒斯坦人而被关进以色列监狱，后来在囚犯交换中被释放……
He’s one of the more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners inside Israel who was released in a swap for Gilad Shalit, the abducted Israeli soldier.
他是以色列境内 1000 多名巴勒斯坦囚犯之一，他们被释放，以换取被绑架的以色列士兵吉拉德·沙利特。
Yahya Al-Sinwar, in prison in Israel, talked to, among others, a dentist who ended up saving his life because Yahya Al-Sinwar had a brain tumor.
叶海亚·辛瓦尔 (Yahya Al-Sinwar) 在以色列监狱中与一位牙医进行了交谈，这位牙医最终救了他的命，因为叶海亚·辛瓦尔患有脑瘤。
1:18:59 This dentist identified this and actually sent him to the hospital.
这位牙医发现了这一点，并把他送往医院。
The Israelis famously removed the tumor and saved Sinwar’s life.
众所周知，以色列人切除了肿瘤并挽救了辛瓦尔的生命。
But this dentist used to speak to him in the prison not fairly regularly and has related, not at least to the New York Times, his conversations with Sinwar.
但这位牙医过去在监狱里并不经常与他交谈，并且至少向《纽约时报》讲述了他与辛瓦尔的谈话。
Sinwar said in one of those conversations, he said, “At the moment, you, Israel, are strong, but one day, you’ll be weak, and then I’ll come.” And that’s what he did.
辛瓦尔在其中一次谈话中说，“目前，你们，以色列，很强大，但有一天，你们会变得虚弱，然后我就会来。”他就是这么做的。
Is it a hatred of Israel, or is it a hatred of Jews?
是对以色列的仇恨，还是对犹太人的仇恨？
1:19:39 Is it on the level of nations or the level of religion?
是国家层面还是宗教层面？
Both.
两个都。
1:19:49 It’s both.
两者都是。
I mean, it originates from a religious mindset, but it’s, of course, political as well.
我的意思是，它源于宗教心态，但当然，它也是政治性的。
I mean, the Hamas Charter, of course, some people think the Hamas Charter is of no significance in…
我的意思是，哈马斯宪章，当然，有些人认为哈马斯宪章没有任何意义……
I often notice this sleight of hand that people do.
我经常注意到人们的这种伎俩。
Again, it goes back to what we were saying earlier, forget everything other than the most important basic things.
再次，这又回到了我们之前所说的，忘记除了最重要的基本事情之外的所有事情。
But the Hamas Charter, among other things, quotes the Hadith that the end times will not come until all of the rocks and the trees shout out, “Oh, Muslim, there’s a Jew behind me, come and kill him.” So, Hamas is both obviously anti-Israeli, obviously, and anti-Jewish, obviously.
但哈马斯宪章除其他外，引用圣训称，直到所有的岩石和树木都喊出“哦，穆斯林，我身后有一个犹太人，快来杀了他”，末日才会到来。因此，哈马斯显然既反以色列，又反犹太人。
By the way, I mean, one of the many painful stories I tell in the book is of the fact that so many of the people in the communities that they attacked, it’s not as if there’d be a right community to attack and a wrong community to attack, but the many of the communities they attacked were communities which deeply, deeply dreamed of the idea of living in peace with their Palestinian neighbors.
顺便说一句，我的意思是，我在书中讲述的许多痛苦故事之一是，他们袭击的社区中的许多人，并不是说有一个正确的社区可以攻击，也没有一个错误的社区可以攻击，但他们攻击的许多社区都是深深梦想着与巴勒斯坦邻居和平相处的社区。
1:21:08 There’s a woman whose name has become relatively famous since, certainly famous inside Israel, Vivian Silver, who was a peace activist, who spent every weekend driving Gazan children from the border to…
有一位女士的名字从此变得相对出名，在以色列境内当然也很出名，维维安·西尔弗（Vivian Silver），她是一名和平活动家，每个周末都会开车送加沙儿童从边境到……
If they had very rare medical needs that could not be seen attention within inside Gaza, would drive them to Israeli hospitals.
如果他们有非常罕见的医疗需求，而加沙境内没有得到关注，就会驱使他们去以色列医院。
She spent every weekend doing that.
她每个周末都这样做。
Worked for all of the left-wing peace organizations in Israel.
为以色列所有左翼和平组织工作。
1:21:38 For a while after the 7th, her neighbors and others thought that she had been taken captive into Gaza.
7日之后的一段时间内，她的邻居和其他人都认为她已被俘虏到加沙。
And actually, there was a hostage poster for her, and there were appeals by the various peacenik organizations for Hamas to hand her over.
事实上，有一张她的人质海报，各个和平组织都呼吁哈马斯交出她。
But it turned out she’d been burned alive in her home.
但事实证明她是在家里被活活烧死的。
This wasn’t discovered for quite a long time because there was so little DNA left of her that it was very hard to identify the remains as being hers.
这件事在很长一段时间内都没有被发现，因为她留下的 DNA 太少了，很难确定遗骸是她的。
1:22:07 So, there were a lot, just a lot of people in the Gaza envelope, as it’s called in Israel, in the area around Gaza, who would’ve been the people who wanted to live peacefully with the Gazans some day.
因此，在加沙地带（以色列称之为加沙地带）和加沙周边地区有很多人，他们希望有一天能与加沙人和平共处。
There’s a certain, among the many, it’s not an irony, but just among the pains of the days that is so overwhelmingly, these are the people that Hamas brought hell to.
可以肯定的是，在众多的人中，这并不是讽刺，而是在这些日子的痛苦中，这些人是哈马斯给他们带来的地狱。
The response to October 7th by Israel, can you steal me on the case that Israel went too far?
以色列10月7日的回应，你能偷我一下以色列走得太远了吗？
Well, the case that started from very early on, that critics of Israel had was the claim that…
好吧，从很早开始，以色列的批评者就声称……
1:22:48 I mean, I think I first heard it on about the 8th of October before Israel had done anything in response, was the claim that Israel must act proportionately in response.
我的意思是，我想我第一次听到这个说法是在 10 月 8 日左右，当时以色列还没有做出任何回应，以色列必须采取相应的行动来回应。
I have a critic of this that I’ve often expressed, which is that there is such a thing as proportionality in warfare.
我经常对此提出批评，那就是战争中存在相称性这一问题。
At the same time, Israel is always accused of acting disproportionately.
与此同时，以色列却总是被指责行为不当。
1:23:24 The proportionality that much of the rest of the world seems to think Israel should express in warfare is to have an equal level of suffering or killing on both sides.
世界其他许多国家似乎认为以色列在战争中应该表现出的相称性是双方遭受同等程度的痛苦或杀戮。
I don’t think there’s any law of war that says that if you kill 1,200 people and you kidnap another 250, that as it were the other side’s allowed to do the same back.
我不认为有任何战争法规定，如果你杀死 1,200 人并绑架另外 250 人，那么对方就可以以同样的方式反击。
But that’s what a lot of people think.
但这就是很多人的想法。
And then when they see the death toll escalating on the Gazan side, they say Israel has acted disproportionately and has overreacted.
然后，当他们看到加沙一侧的死亡人数不断上升时，他们说以色列的行为不成比例，反应过度。
1:24:06 That one is tricky, because it’s my belief that, I mean, again, this is a basic thing but it has to be stated, that 9 million citizens of Israel, if you extrapolate that out to what the 7th of October would’ve meant in American terms, you’d be talking about a day on which if the attack had happened in America where 44,000 Americans were killed in one day and 10,000 American citizens taken hostage, nobody can tell me that if such an atrocity occurred that America would not do whatever it needed to destroy the groups that had done that and to retrieve the hostages who’d been taken.
这个问题很棘手，因为我相信，我的意思是，这是一件基本的事情，但必须说明的是，900 万以色列公民，如果你将其推断为 10 月 7 日在美国术语中的含义，你会谈论这一天，如果袭击发生在美国，一天内有 44,000 名美国人被杀，10,000 名美国公民被扣为人质，没有人能告诉我，如果这样发生了暴行，美国不会采取一切必要行动来摧毁实施这种暴行的组织并解救被劫持的人质。
So just on that point, I agree with you 100% America would hit hard back, and I think a lot of Americans would feel justified in that.
因此，就这一点而言，我同意你的观点，100%美国会予以严厉反击，我认为很多美国人会觉得这是合理的。
1:24:53 But it’s also possible that the military industrial complex and the politicians would do something like the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, which means extend far beyond hitting back and actually do a thing that’s destructive to everybody, including America financially and the flourishing of America, and the flourishing of humanity broadly, and the region and the stability and the war on terrorism, if that’s a real thing.
但军事工业联合体和政客也有可能会做出类似伊拉克和阿富汗战争的事情，这意味着远远超出了反击范围，实际上会做一件对所有人都具有破坏性的事情，包括美国的金融和美国的繁荣，以及广泛的人类繁荣，以及该地区和稳定以及反恐战争，如果这是真的的话。
1:25:34 The war in Iraq and Afghanistan did not maybe succeed in defeating terrorism or even making progress.
伊拉克和阿富汗战争或许并没有成功击败恐怖主义，甚至没有取得进展。
It probably made more terrorists than not.
它可能造就了更多的恐怖分子。
So, there’s a justified feeling of hitting back and going after somebody like Bin Laden in the case of 9/11.
因此，在 9/11 事件中，有一种反击并追捕像本·拉登这样的人的感觉是合理的。
And there’s just the actual implementation.
这只是实际的实施。
It seems like the implementation can sometimes, intended or unintended, have consequences that are bordering on war crimes, if not downright war crimes.
看来，执行有时可能会有意或无意地产生接近战争罪的后果，甚至是彻头彻尾的战争罪。
Now, this is a general statement, and now we’ll look at Israel where things are small land, everything is very compact.
现在，这是一个一般性的陈述，现在我们来看看以色列，那里的土地很小，一切都非常紧凑。
There’s a lot of complexities that are well-studied that we’ve talked about extensively.
我们已经广泛讨论了许多经过深入研究的复杂性。
Well, the two stated aims of the Israelis after the 7th were to get the hostages back and to destroy Hamas.
好吧，以色列人在 7 日之后宣称的两个目标是夺回人质和摧毁哈马斯。
1:26:26 Many people said that you could do one but not both.
很多人说你可以做其中之一，但不能两者兼而有之。
I actually think they’ve gone a long way to doing both.
事实上，我认为他们在这两方面都已经走了很长的路。
By no means everything, there were still hostages as we are speaking held in Gaza, including a young American.
绝不是一切，就在我们发言时，仍有人质被扣押在加沙，其中包括一名年轻的美国人。
And Hamas is not completely destroyed.
哈马斯并没有被彻底摧毁。
It’s very, very significantly degraded, but it’s not completely destroyed.
它的退化非常非常明显，但并没有完全被破坏。
But those are the two aims.
但这是两个目标。
1:27:03 I believe that I’ve seen as much of the war as any outside observer.
我相信我和任何外部观察者一样目睹了这场战争。
I don’t know, some exceptions maybe, so I think I can say with considerable certainty what the Israelis have and haven’t done.
我不知道，也许有一些例外，所以我想我可以相当肯定地说以色列人做了什么和没有做什么。
There were various operations at the beginning, various plans which didn’t happen, like storming straight in and getting, for instance, as many hostages as possible out of the Shifa complex, which is called a hospital, but also at the very least, the Hamas command headquarters.
一开始有各种各样的行动，各种各样的计划都没有发生，比如直接冲进去，把尽可能多的人质带出希法综合大楼，那里被称为医院，但至少也是哈马斯指挥总部。
There was a plan to maybe go and do that fast, but it was avoided because of the number of deaths on all sides that would be likely to happen.
本来有一个计划可能会尽快完成，但由于可能会发生各方死亡人数而被取消。
1:27:58 The Israelis did actually hold back at the beginning.
以色列人一开始确实有所保留。
There was a period of making sure that when they went into Gaza, they didn’t do so, in any way, blind.
有一段时期是为了确保他们进入加沙时不会以任何方式盲目行动。
Gaza is a very built-up area, and population-wise is densely populated.
加沙是一个建筑密集的地区，人口密集。
Something, by the way, which the people who claim frivolously that Israel has been creating genocide never take account of, which is the fact that the Gaza population has boomed since the Israeli withdrawal in 2005.
顺便说一句，那些轻率地声称以色列一直在制造种族灭绝的人从未考虑到，自 2005 年以色列撤军以来，加沙人口激增。
It’s almost doubled.
几乎翻了一番。
But yes, it’s a densely populated area, and it’s an incredibly difficult place for the train of war because of one thing in particular, which is that Hamas, going back a bit to our conversation earlier, but this is a much more extreme example.
但是，是的，这是一个人口稠密的地区，对于战争列车来说，这是一个极其困难的地方，因为一件事特别重要，那就是哈马斯，回到我们之前的谈话，但这是一个更极端的例子。
I mean, Hamas really don’t play by the rules.
我的意思是，哈马斯确实不按规则行事。
In fact, they use the rules of war, the laws of war completely to their own advantage.
事实上，他们利用战争规则、战争法则完全是为了自己的利益。
It has to be reiterated.
必须重申一下。
You are not meant to disguise your army as civilians.
你不应该将你的军队伪装成平民。
You’re not meant to use places of care, like hospitals, as bases for your military operations.
你不应该使用医院等护理场所作为军事行动的基地。
You’re not meant to use schools and places of worship as operating centers of war.
你不应该利用学校和礼拜场所作为战争的作战中心。
1:29:25 Hamas does all of these things and has always done so, and it does so with the very obvious reason that for them, the whole thing is a two-for-one offer.
哈马斯做了所有这些事情，并且一直这样做，这样做的原因非常明显，对他们来说，整个事情是二合一的提议。
You get to operate everywhere.
您可以在任何地方进行操作。
And if the Israelis operate anywhere, you claim that this is a war crime, because how could they attack this group of civilians, these people who are dressed as civilians, these people merely fighting from a mosque and so on.
如果以色列人在任何地方行动，你就会声称这是战争罪，因为他们怎么可能攻击这群平民，这些穿着平民的人，这些只是在清真寺里战斗的人等等。
That’s why everybody who’s been to Gaza, who’s seen the fighting, knows the same thing, which is this is just incredibly difficult, difficult warfare, of a kind that American troops have seen in the last 20 years in Fallujah and elsewhere.
这就是为什么每个去过加沙、亲眼目睹战斗的人都知道同样的事情，那就是这是一场极其艰难、艰难的战争，美国军队过去 20 年在费卢杰和其他地方经历过这种战争。
Kurdish militia, the Peshmerga saw when they were fighting as our frontline troops in the war against ISIS, similar house to house, but by no means with the same entrenched bases.
库尔德民兵，佩什梅加，当他们作为我们的前线部队在打击伊斯兰国的战争中时看到，他们挨家挨户地战斗，但绝不是拥有相同的根深蒂固的基地。
Again, it can’t be stressed enough that Hamas has used the years since the Israel withdrawal from 2005 to build this vast underground tunnel network.
再次强调，哈马斯利用 2005 年以色列撤军后的几年时间建造了这个庞大的地下隧道网络。
1:30:48 Again, it’s obvious, but it has to be remembered.
再说一遍，这是显而易见的，但必须记住。
I quote one of Hamas leaders in the book saying this in an interview.
我在书中引用了一位哈马斯领导人在接受采访时的说法。
When they build their tunnels, they do so in order their tunnels are used by them, Hamas, to store their weaponry, to secure their fighters, and to hold hostages.
当他们修建地道时，他们这样做是为了让哈马斯使用他们的地道来储存他们的武器、保护他们的战士并扣押人质。
They do not build their underground tunnel networks for the safety of guards and civilians avoiding aerial bombardment.
他们不会为了保卫警卫和平民的安全而建造地下隧道网络，以避免空中轰炸。
Every difference in the world seems to me to exist between a country which does build bomb shelters for its citizens and a government which builds bomb shelters for its bombs.
在我看来，世界上的每一个差异都存在于为其公民建造防空洞的国家和为其炸弹建造防空洞的政府之间。
Can you discuss the flow of money here?
你能在这里讨论一下资金的流动吗？
1:31:38 How does Hamas, the leadership, use the money?
哈马斯领导层如何使用这笔钱？
You started to talk about the tunnels, but how much corruption is there?
你开始谈论隧道，但那里有多少腐败？
Can you just lay it all out?
你能把一切都列出来吗？
Because I think it’s an important part of the picture here.
因为我认为这是这里图片的重要组成部分。
It’s certainly corrupt.
这肯定是腐败的。
1:31:56 Every Hamas leader, who’s now dead, died a billionaire.
每一位现已去世的哈马斯领导人都是亿万富翁。
With a B.
与 B。
With a B.
与 B。
1:32:08 To say that they used Gaza’s resources or the resources that came into Gaza for their own ends is to just vastly understate matters.
如果说他们利用加沙的资源或进入加沙的资源来达到自己的目的，那就太轻描淡写了。
Hamas used everything that came in to build the infrastructure of terror that allowed them to do the 7th and everything since.
哈马斯利用一切手段来建立恐怖基础设施，使他们能够进行第七次袭击以及此后的所有事情。
They militarized the whole of the Gaza.
他们使整个加沙地带军事化。
By the estimations of troops I’ve been with, every second to third house had weaponry stashed there.
据我所在部队的估计，每隔一到第三个房子就藏有武器。
Bombs, RPGs, Kalashnikovs, rockets, tunnel entrances.
炸弹、火箭弹、卡拉什尼科夫冲锋枪、火箭、隧道入口。
The network that they just embedded all these years was total.
这些年来他们刚刚嵌入的网络是完整的。
1:33:08 One of the many, many tragedies of this is that whatever you are reading of the rights and wrongs of the Israeli withdrawal in 2005, it was an opportunity for the Gaza to become something else.
其中众多的悲剧之一是，无论你如何解读 2005 年以色列撤军的正确与错误，这都是加沙变成另一个样子的机会。
It could have become a thriving statelet.
它本可以成为一个繁荣的小国。
It could have been a thriving Palestinian state.
它可能是一个繁荣的巴勒斯坦国。
It’s just that Hamas, like the PLO before them, decided that they wanted to destroy Israel more than they wanted to create a Palestinian estate.
只是哈马斯和他们之前的巴解组织一样，决定他们更想摧毁以色列，而不是建立一个巴勒斯坦庄园。
And that is to the great detriment of the Palestinians of Gaza to put it at its mildest.
说得最温和，这对加沙的巴勒斯坦人来说是极大的损害。
So just to outline here, leadership of Hamas are stealing the money they get sent by Qatar, by everybody, so they’re putting in their pocket and then the-
因此，在这里概述一下，哈马斯的领导层正在窃取卡塔尔和每个人寄给他们的钱，所以他们把钱放进自己的口袋，然后-
By the American taxpayer and by the European taxpayer as well.
由美国纳税人和欧洲纳税人负责。
1:34:00 Yes.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Well, yeah, but, I mean, it’s not just about the stealing the money.
嗯，是的，但是，我的意思是，这不仅仅是偷钱。
1:34:03 It’s about using the money and the infrastructure to annihilate your neighbor.
这是关于使用金钱和基础设施来消灭你的邻居。
Those two things, but the corruption is a signal.
这两件事，但腐败是一个信号。
1:34:12 From an economic perspective, it’s just also a signal of deep moral corruption because they’re screwing over the Palestinian people.
从经济角度来看，这也是严重道德腐败的信号，因为他们正在欺骗巴勒斯坦人民。
Yes, the cynicism, certainly.
是的，当然是愤世嫉俗。
1:34:27 Yeah.
是的。
Okay.
好的。
1:34:29 And then, the money they do spend on the Palestinian cause, they’re not doing that to build up Gaza.
然后，他们花在巴勒斯坦事业上的钱并不是为了建设加沙。
They’re doing it to strengthen the militaristic capabilities of the terrorist organization of Hamas.
他们这样做是为了加强哈马斯恐怖组织的军国主义能力。
You have, maybe you can correct me on this, have said that the people of Gaza have some significant responsibility for the actions of Hamas-
你曾经说过，也许你可以纠正我，加沙人民对哈马斯的行为负有一些重大责任——
Yes.
是的。
…
……
1:35:03 because they’ve elected them.
因为他们选举了他们。
They elected them.
他们选举了他们。
1:35:04 The what ifs are endless, but very unwise of the George W.
假设是无穷无尽的，但乔治·W·布什政府非常不明智。
Bush administration to push for elections in Gaza after ’05.
布什政府在05年后推动加沙选举。
But Hamas were elected ,and they then, in 2007, killed the other Palestinian faction that was their main challenger, Fatah.
但哈马斯当选，然后他们在 2007 年杀死了他们的主要挑战者另一个巴勒斯坦派别法塔赫。
Killed them through them off rooftops, dragged their bodies behind motorbikes through the Gaza.
从屋顶上杀掉他们，用摩托车拖着他们的尸体穿过加沙。
From that point, they had total control.
从那时起，他们就拥有了完全的控制权。
1:35:38 This is difficult because you can get into the realm of being accused of advocating or in any way justifying collective punishment if you talk about this, but it should be born in mind that Hamas had effectively 18 years to run the Gaza.
这很困难，因为如果你谈论这个问题，你可能会被指控提倡集体惩罚或以任何方式为集体惩罚辩护，但应该记住，哈马斯实际上已经管理加沙 18 年了。
And that-
还有那个——
1:36:00 …
……
run the Gaza.
管理加沙。
And that’s the time that it takes from the birth of a child to the end of their formal education.
这就是从孩子出生到正规教育结束所需的时间。
And in 18 years they could have presided over and produced a generation of young Gazans who were productive for their people, for their society, for their neighbors, for the rest of the world, and they didn’t.
在 18 年里，他们本可以领导并培养出一代年轻的加沙人，为他们的人民、他们的社会、他们的邻居和世界其他地方做出贡献，但他们没有。
They spent 18 years indoctrinating the children of Gaza into a death cult and into a genocidal hatred, which obviously was most dangerous to the Israelis, but it was obviously disastrous for the people of Gaza.
他们花了18年时间向加沙儿童灌输死亡崇拜和种族灭绝仇恨，这显然对以色列人来说是最危险的，但对加沙人民来说显然是灾难性的。
1:36:59 If you speak to soldiers who were there in 2014 when Hamas started a war again…
如果你与 2014 年哈马斯再次发动战争时在场的士兵交谈……
One of a set of rounds of war since 2005.
这是2005年以来的一系列战争中的其中一场。
If you speak to the soldiers who were there in 2014 going house to house and who were also involved in the war since 2003, they all say the same thing, which is the marked radicalization of the Gazan population.
如果你和 2014 年挨家挨户走访的士兵以及自 2003 年以来也参与战争的士兵交谈，他们都会说同样的话，那就是加沙人民明显的激进化。
1:37:26 The marked increase in just, I mean, the most…
我的意思是，最显着的增加……
I mean, it’s so banal in a way to even…
我的意思是，从某种程度上来说，这太平庸了，甚至……
The numbers of copies of Mein Kampf in Arabic in an average Gazan household, the protocols of the learned elders of Zion, there are so many what ifs and other paths that Hamas could have taken, but that was the one they took.
加沙普通家庭中阿拉伯语版《我的奋斗》的数量、锡安博学长者的协议、哈马斯本可以采取的假设和其他道路有很多，但他们却选择了这条道路。
They decided to take the path of using their time and power to build up their infrastructure, radicalize the population, and encouraged them to believe that they could destroy the state of Israel.
他们决定利用自己的时间和权力来建设基础设施，使民众变得激进，并鼓励他们相信自己可以摧毁以色列国。
1:38:01 And then on October 7th, they gave it their best shot.
然后在 10 月 7 日，他们竭尽全力。
And by the way, there is no organized collective punishment of the citizens of Gaza.
顺便说一句，加沙公民没有受到有组织的集体惩罚。
Collective punishment would just be dropping bombs with no purpose across civilian areas, carpet bombing, this sort of thing.
集体惩罚就是在平民区毫无目的地投掷炸弹、地毯式轰炸之类的。
This is simply not what the IAF and the IDF have done since the 7th.
这根本不是印度空军和以色列国防军自7日以来所做的事情。
They have been fighting a house to house war against this terrorist group.
他们一直在与这个恐怖组织进行挨家挨户的战争。
They do do aerial strikes.
他们确实进行空袭。
Gaza is very, very badly beaten up as the buildings, I mean the infrastructure that existed.
加沙的建筑物（我指的是现有的基础设施）遭到了非常非常严重的破坏。
1:38:46 There aren’t many buildings standing.
没有多少建筑物矗立着。
But this is not the result of just wild and imprecise bombing by the Israelis.
但这不仅仅是以色列人疯狂和不精确的轰炸的结果。
It’s been extremely concerted.
这是非常一致的。
It’s extremely difficult.
这是非常困难的。
But when people say, “Well, this must be collective punishment.” I think that the people who say that simultaneously, that’s not true.
但当人们说：“好吧，这一定是集体惩罚。”我认为那些同时这么说的人不是真的。
And also there is not a hostage who’s come out who…
而且也没有人质出来……
President Trump made his point recently.
特朗普总统最近表明了自己的观点。
There is not a hostage who’s come out who I’ve spoken with, who found any Gazan Palestinian who expressed even the slightest human kindness to them.
在我采访过的人质中，没有一个人发现任何加沙巴勒斯坦人向他们表达过哪怕是最轻微的人性善意。
1:39:41 If you look at the footage from the 7th, the Hamas recorded themselves of them taking young Jewish women into Gaza and so on.
如果你看7日的录像，就会发现哈马斯自己记录了他们将年轻犹太妇女带入加沙的情况等等。
You will notice that the trucks and the motorbikes and so on are not stopped by horrified Gazan civilians saying, “Why have you got this Israeli girl whose tendons you’ve cut and why are you bringing her here?” It’s all celebration.
你会注意到，卡车和摩托车等并没有被惊恐的加沙平民拦住，说：“你为什么要抓到这个被你割断肌腱的以色列女孩，为什么要把她带到这里？”这都是庆祝活动。
It’s all celebration.
这都是庆祝活动。
And it’s the same with those couple of cases of hostages who managed to escape from the civilian houses they were being held in who were immediately returned by the citizens they met.
那些成功逃离被关押的民房的人质的情况也是如此，但他们遇到的公民立即将其带回。
Yeah, the celebration.
是的，庆祝活动。
1:40:26 I do wonder what percent of the population they represent, but there’s something really dark.
我确实想知道他们代表了多少人口，但确实有一些黑暗的东西。
There’s several ways to explain the celebration.
有几种方法可以解释庆祝活动。
It could be that there’s a deep indoctrination where you do legitimately hate Jews, and there also could be a place of just deep desperation.
可能存在一种深刻的灌输，使你确实仇恨犹太人，也可能存在一种深深的绝望。
And it’s a kind of relief that you have to convince yourself that you’re on the side of fighting for freedom in order to justify to yourself that this is the right way to fight out desperation out of extremely harsh conditions.
这是一种解脱，因为你必须说服自己，你站在为自由而战的一边，以便向自己证明这是在极其恶劣的条件下对抗绝望的正确方法。
1:41:08 Because the way we’re speaking about this with a celebration, it’s very easy to project a kind of evil on the populace that I just am very hesitant to project, especially on the general populace.
因为我们通过庆祝活动来谈论这个问题的方式很容易向民众投射一种邪恶，而我只是非常犹豫是否要投射这种邪恶，尤其是针对普通民众。
You don’t have to project it onto them.
你不必把它投射到他们身上。
1:41:23 You can just listen to their own words.
你可以听听他们自己的话。
I’m sure you’ve heard that one of many audio recordings you hear from the morning, but I’m sure you’ve heard the audio recording of the young man who ends up in one of the communities in the south of Israel and calls back home.
我确信你已经听过早上听到的众多录音之一，但我确信你也听过那个年轻人的录音，他最终来到以色列南部的一个社区并给家里打电话。
Have you heard that?
你听说过吗？
Yes, I’ve heard it.
是的，我听说过。
I quoted it in the first chapter of the book.
我在书的第一章引用了这句话。
1:41:46 He calls back home and he says to his father who picks up…
他打电话回家，对接电话的父亲说……
It’s on what?
是在什么上？
I think he’s on phone, but he’s saying, “Turn on to WhatsApp because I can show you.” He says, “I’ve killed 10 Jews with my own hands.
我认为他正在打电话，但他说：“打开 WhatsApp，我可以给你看。”他说：“我亲手杀死了 10 名犹太人。
Oh, father, your son has killed 10 Jews.” And his father is saying, “Where are you?
哦，父亲，你的儿子杀了 10 个犹太人。”他的父亲说：“你在哪里？
Where are you?” “I want to show you, dad.
你在哪儿？ “我想告诉你，爸爸。
I want to show you.
我想给你看。
I’ve killed Jews with my own hands, your son.
我亲手杀死了犹太人，你的儿子。
Put mother on the phone.” Mother comes on the phone, the brother comes on the phone.
让妈妈接电话。”妈妈打来电话，哥哥也打来电话。
This is one of many, many stories from the day that suggests something, which I would say is not just indoctrination, but yes, evil.
这是那天发生的许多故事之一，这些故事暗示了一些事情，我想说这不仅仅是灌输，而且是邪恶的。
First of all, those phone calls are somehow uniquely horrific.
首先，这些电话在某种程度上是非常可怕的。
1:42:39 But I’ve also heard recordings of phone calls made by Ukrainian soldiers to their parents and Russian soldiers to their parents and they have…
但我也听到了乌克兰士兵给父母打电话的录音，以及俄罗斯士兵给父母打电话的录音，他们……
Not as intense and not as horrific, but they have a similar nature to them, which there’s an aspect of war where you dehumanize the other side in order to fight that war.
没有那么激烈，也没有那么可怕，但它们有相似的性质，那就是战争的一个方面，你为了打这场战争而使对方失去人性。
We have to remember that element is going to be there in a time of war, in a time of desperation.
我们必须记住，在战争时期、在绝望时期，这一元素将会存在。
It would be a strange type of simple sort of, I don’t know, pride in war to go into an eight-year-old woman’s house and kill her on her floor and then film her dead body, her body in its final moments and send it round to all of that woman’s friends on her phone, on her Instagram account.
走进一个八岁妇女的房子，在她的地板上杀死她，然后拍摄她的尸体，她的尸体在最后时刻，并通过她的手机和她的 Instagram 帐户发送给该妇女的所有朋友，这将是一种奇怪的简单的，我不知道，战争的自豪感。
1:43:20 You may have heard different things from me, but I mean, I would be surprised if there were even the most vociferous of Russian soldiers phoning back home to Moscow and saying, “Mom, you won’t believe my luck.
你可能从我这里听到了不同的事情，但我的意思是，如果即使是最吵闹的俄罗斯士兵打电话回莫斯科的家说：“妈妈，你不会相信我的运气。
I managed to rape and kill this 18-year-old woman.” That’s quite unusual, even in warfare.
我设法强奸并杀死了这个 18 岁的女人。”即使在战争中，这也是很不寻常的。
And that’s one of the things about Hamas and what I describe as the death cult types, which makes them different from other people.
这就是哈马斯和我所描述的死亡邪教类型的特点之一，这使他们与其他人不同。
But that’s the channeling of evil, and hatred, and anger in the human spirit.
但这是人类精神中邪恶、仇恨和愤怒的引导。
1:44:31 But that doesn’t make that person evil.
但这并不意味着那个人是邪恶的。
No, I disagree.
不，我不同意。
You commit that once.
你承诺一次。
I think that there is such a force as evil in the world, and I think it can descend and it can be used.
我认为世界上存在着邪恶这样的力量，我认为它可以降临，可以被利用。
1:44:43 It’s very hard to find a non-theological way to talk about this.
很难找到一种非神学的方式来谈论这个问题。
But everything I’ve seen, there are actions that people like Hamas committed on the 7th that cannot be described as anything other than evil.
但我所看到的一切，像哈马斯这样的人在7日所犯下的行为只能被描述为邪恶。
The things that happened at the Nova Party were especially appalling.
新星派对上发生的事情尤其令人震惊。
I mean, it was all appalling, but it was especially appalling because first of all, it’s a party which people like you and I, or at least you and I when we were younger might have been at.
我的意思是，这一切都令人震惊，但尤其令人震惊，因为首先，这是一个像你和我这样的人，或者至少是你和我年轻时可能参加过的聚会。
1:45:24 And so everyone knows the world of a dance party in all night raving in the desert to commune with nature and the universe and to take some psychedelics and to expand your consciousness and your love and all of that sort of thing.
所以每个人都知道在沙漠中彻夜狂欢的舞会世界，与自然和宇宙交流，服用一些迷幻药，扩展你的意识和你的爱等等。
1:45:43 The fact that people doing that at 6:30 in the morning then encountered people coming in to the party on trucks and military vehicles and just massacring them and raping them.
事实上，人们在早上 6:30 这样做，然后遇到了乘坐卡车和军车来参加聚会的人，然后屠杀并强奸了他们。
I mean, I give examples of the firsthand accounts of people who survived, but I mean, it’s beyond belief of almost anything else I’ve covered in war.
我的意思是，我给出了幸存者的第一手资料的例子，但我的意思是，这几乎是我在战争中报道过的任何其他事情都难以置信的。
And it’s because it seems so…
也是因为看起来如此……
I mean, an army facing another army is one thing.
我的意思是，一支军队面对另一支军队是一回事。
1:46:28 A terrorist group in civilian clothing facing an army is another thing.
穿着便衣的恐怖组织面对军队则是另一回事。
A terrorist group facing a group of young people at a dance unarmed and doing what they did is pretty hard to comprehend unless you use the lexicon of evil somewhere.
一个恐怖组织在舞会上面对一群手无寸铁的年轻人，他们所做的事情很难理解，除非你在某个地方使用邪恶的词汇。
So that stated, can you empathize with the suffering of Palestinians and Gaza with the destruction that resulted as a response?
话虽如此，您能否对巴勒斯坦人和加沙人民所遭受的苦难以及由此造成的破坏表示同情？
1:47:06 Yes.
是的。
What has happened in response is terrible, terrible for the citizens of Gaza.
对于加沙公民来说，所发生的反应是可怕的。
I was there on the first time a couple of days early into the ground invasion when the citizens of Gaza were coming south.
我第一次到那里是在地面入侵开始的几天前，当时加沙公民正南下。
I was in the middle of the strip and the humanitarian corridor had been set up to try to stop the hostages being taken south deeper into Gaza and to try to stop the Hamas leadership from making it south.
我当时就在加沙地带的中间，人道主义走廊的建立是为了阻止人质被带往南方深入加沙地带，并阻止哈马斯领导层向南推进。
It actually didn’t really work because they’d already got a lot of the hostages south.
实际上这并没有真正起作用，因为他们已经把很多人质带到了南方。
1:47:48 It was an attempt to keep Hamas there and fight them in the north so as not to be dragged all the way…
这是为了让哈马斯留在那里并在北部与他们作战，以免被一路拖着……
In the end, dragged all the way in any way.
到最后，无论如何都拖着。
But, yes, and I mean watching the citizens of Gaza moving through the humanitarian corridor and everyone was being checked for bombs, suicide vests, checked for particularly young men of military age.
但是，是的，我的意思是看着加沙公民穿过人道主义走廊，每个人都在接受检查是否有炸弹、自杀背心，特别是对达到军事年龄的年轻人进行检查。
I mean, you look at this tide of human misery and you think, “This is terrible.” But this is a terrible thing that had been brought upon them by the people who had been miss governing the place that they lived in.
我的意思是，当你看到人类苦难的浪潮时，你会想：“这太可怕了。”但这是一件可怕的事情，是那些没有管理好他们居住的地方的人给他们带来的。
1:48:29 And of course, on a human level, you feel terrible that these people are going through this.
当然，从人类的角度来看，你会因为这些人正在经历的事情而感到可怕。
At the same time, human empathy for them can coexist beside an unspeakable anger that they had come to this point because of the fact that they had elected a terror group to run their territory.
与此同时，人类对他们的同情心与难以言喻的愤怒并存，因为他们之所以走到这一步，是因为他们选举了一个恐怖组织来管理他们的领土。
And one of the things obviously is that a lot of people like to say, and it’s true, of course, this didn’t all start on October the 7th.
其中一件事显然是很多人喜欢说的，当然这是真的，这一切并不是从 10 月 7 日开始的。
Absolutely true.
绝对正确。
This particular round, this particularly intense round of war started on October the 7th without doubt.
这一轮、这一轮特别激烈的战争，毫无疑问是从10月7号开始的。
Hamas did not have to attack on October the 7th.
哈马斯不必在 10 月 7 日发动袭击。
1:49:18 It wasn’t like they were forced to liberate themselves or something that some of the defenders of Hamas claim.
这并不是说他们被迫解放自己，也不像一些哈马斯的捍卫者所声称的那样。
But the conflict of course goes back a lot earlier.
但冲突当然可以追溯到更早之前。
But you will have to always keep on contending with this fact that there is one central issue to the paradigm of that conflict, what used to be called the Arab-Israeli conflict and now has become interestingly rebranded, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
但你必须始终面对这一事实，即这场冲突的范式有一个核心问题，即过去所谓的阿以冲突，现在有趣地重新命名为以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突。
1:49:52 But there is one absolutely essential issue to this which cannot be forgotten, which is do the Palestinians want a state or do they want to destroy the Jewish state?
但有一个绝对重要的问题不能被忘记，那就是巴勒斯坦人想要一个国家还是想要摧毁犹太国家？
And if they want to destroy the Jewish state as they’ve tried many times, it’s a disaster for them.
如果他们想像他们多次尝试的那样摧毁犹太国家，这对他们来说就是一场灾难。
It’s a total disaster for them.
这对他们来说完全是一场灾难。
1:50:18 If they want to create their own state, they’ve already had several very good shots to do it, one of which is Gaza post 2005.
如果他们想创建自己的国家，他们已经有过几次非常好的机会，其中之一就是 2005 年之后的加沙。
But they’ve never shown in their leadership the desire to live with a Jewish state, and that’s the catastrophe for the Palestinians.
但他们的领导层从未表现出与犹太国家共存的愿望，这对巴勒斯坦人来说是灾难。
Can you still mount the case of the lived experience of Palestinians and pro-Palestinian voices that describe the Gaza situation as an occupation, West Bank too, and in the case of Gaza, open air prison?
你还能举出巴勒斯坦人和亲巴勒斯坦人的生活经历来描述加沙局势是一种占领吗，约旦河西岸也是如此，就加沙而言，是露天监狱？
To take them in order, there’s nothing about Gaza that was an open air prison.
按顺序来看，加沙根本就不是一座露天监狱。
1:50:57 They had ability to trade.
他们有能力进行交易。
They had the ability to move in and out in increasing numbers.
他们有能力进出，人数不断增加。
Egypt wasn’t so keen on allowing Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt.
埃及并不那么热衷于允许巴勒斯坦人从加沙进入埃及。
Still isn’t.
仍然不是。
But at the time of the 7th, there was actually an interesting…
但在7号的时候，其实有一个有趣的……
One of the things the international community was pushing for was more Palestinians to be coming into Israel every day through the Eretz Crossing and others to work in Israel because they can make a better living in Israel than they can in Gaza.
国际社会正在推动的事情之一是每天有更多的巴勒斯坦人通过埃雷兹过境点和其他通道进入以色列在以色列工作，因为他们在以色列可以比在加沙过上更好的生活。
1:51:33 And this the, as it were, normalization route was slowly being attempted.
可以说，正常化路线正在慢慢尝试。
It as being pushed on Israel [inaudible 01:51:42] did a little bit too fast for Israel’s comfort, but it happened.
它被推到以色列身上 [听不清 01:51:42] 对于以色列的安慰来说有点太快了，但它发生了。
That completely came to an end, and that dream has gone since the 7th of October.
一切都彻底结束了，这个梦想从10月7日起就消失了。
Can you clarify the dream, the normalization relationship?
你能澄清一下梦想，正常化关系吗？
The normalization dream.
正常化梦想。
Between Gaza and Israel?
加沙和以色列之间？
Gone.
走了。
1:51:59 There will be-
将会有——
Really?
真的吗？
Yeah, no normalization.
是的，没有标准化。
1:52:02 No, not after that.
不，在那之后就不行了。
And one of the reasons is the number of people, again, who I’ve spoken with, who employed Palestinians, worked with Palestinians, worked alongside Palestinians, encouraged more Palestinians to be coming from Gaza in order to work in Israel, and these were their brothers and sisters and so on and so forth.
原因之一是我采访过的人数，他们雇佣了巴勒斯坦人，与巴勒斯坦人一起工作，与巴勒斯坦人一起工作，鼓励更多的巴勒斯坦人从加沙来到以色列工作，这些都是他们的兄弟姐妹等等。
One of the reasons why the massacres of the 7th were so successful in the kibbutz, in the communities in the South was because of the number of the terrorists who came in with detailed house to house maps of those communities.
第七军团的大屠杀在基布兹和南方社区如此成功的原因之一是因为恐怖分子数量众多，他们带着这些社区的详细挨家挨户地图进来。
1:52:38 I spoke with one man who, his community, they had a security officer chief and Hamas came in.
我和一个人交谈过，他的社区有一位安全长官，哈马斯进来了。
They knew to go and kill him and his family first, and then which families…
他们知道先去杀掉他和他的家人，然后再杀掉哪些家族……
I’ve seen the maps myself.
我自己看过地图。
They came in with incredibly accurate information about these communities.
他们带来了有关这些社区的极其准确的信息。
How did they have them?
他们是怎么拥有它们的？
Because it was given to them by the brothers, by the workers, by the people of Gaza who were coming in and out.
因为它是兄弟们、工人们、进出加沙的人民给他们的。
So there is nobody that will trust that ever again.
所以没有人会再相信这一点。
There’s a lot of Palestinians that have lived and flourished inside Israel.
有很多巴勒斯坦人在以色列境内生活和繁荣。
1:53:13 What are they saying?
他们在说什么？
What are they feeling and what are the Israelis feeling about them?
他们的感受如何？以色列人对他们有何感受？
Is there still camaraderie to some degree or is it completely destroyed?
在某种程度上，友情是否仍然存在，或者已经完全被破坏了？
My observation at the beginning was that everyone was extremely wary.
我一开始的观察是每个人都非常警惕。
1:53:31 I mean, if you’ve worked beside somebody and then found out they sold out your family, you will never trust again.
我的意思是，如果你和某人一起工作，然后发现他们出卖了你的家人，你将永远不会再信任。
And that particularly in a small country like Israel, the word of that happening goes out very fast.
尤其是在像以色列这样的小国，这种事情发生的消息传得很快。
At the very beginning, there was intense, intense fear about that, including of the 20% or so of the population who are Arab Israelis.
一开始，人们对此感到非常非常的恐惧，其中包括 20% 左右的阿拉伯以色列人。
1:54:05 I actually think one of the few positive news stories of the period is that that population within Israel has by and large held.
事实上，我认为这一时期为数不多的积极新闻报道之一是以色列境内的人口总体上仍然存在。
There hasn’t been an Intifada.
没有发生过起义。
One of the reasons why there hasn’t been more terrorist activity in the West Bank in Judea and Samaria is because the Israelis have been very careful along with the Palestinian authority to some extent, cooperating to keep that down.
约旦河西岸的朱迪亚和撒马利亚没有发生更多恐怖活动的原因之一是，以色列人在某种程度上与巴勒斯坦当局非常谨慎，合作遏制恐怖活动。
But there wasn’t a full war on three fronts, for instance, which was at risk of happening.
但例如，三条战线并没有发生全面战争，而这有发生的风险。
1:54:47 So I think that the coexistence within Israel has pretty much held.
所以我认为以色列内部的共存状况基本保持不变。
There are some terrible examples, far too regular, but not as regular that could happen of Muslim Arab Israelis carrying out acts of terror as it was sympathy with Hamas.
有一些可怕的例子，太常见了，但不像以色列阿拉伯穆斯林人实施恐怖行为那样频繁地发生，因为他们同情哈马斯。
I was in the middle of one such attack myself late last year and in a town called Hadera.
去年年底，我自己也曾在一个名叫哈德拉的小镇遭遇过一次此类袭击。
And those things have happened, but it’s not…
这些事情已经发生了，但事实并非如此……
That particular catastrophe has not occurred.
那场特殊的灾难并没有发生。
Can we talk about Benjamin Netanyahu?
我们能谈谈本杰明·内塔尼亚胡吗？
1:55:25 For a lot of people who spoke of evil, they refer to him as evil on the spectrum between good and evil.
对于许多谈论邪恶的人来说，他们将他称为善与恶之间的邪恶。
As a leader, where does Netanyahu fall?
作为一个领导人，内塔尼亚胡的落脚点在哪里？
Well, he’s certainly not evil.
嗯，他当然不是邪恶的。
1:55:39 Interesting if people looking at this conflict were to be reluctant to use the word evil of Hamas and eager to use it of the Israeli prime minister.
有趣的是，关注这场冲突的人们不愿意使用哈马斯的邪恶一词，而渴望使用以色列总理的邪恶一词。
It would be sort of telling, I would say.
我想说，这有点能说明问题。
Can we just actually linger on that point?
我们真的可以在这一点上徘徊吗？
1:55:53 There is a point you’ve made multiple times, which is we’re more eager to criticize and maybe even over-exaggerate the criticism of democratically elected leaders.
有一点你已经多次说过，那就是我们更愿意批评，甚至可能过分夸大对民选领导人的批评。
Yes.
是的。
It’s a dark, weird other quality of discourse at parties, aforementioned parties.
这是聚会上的另一种黑暗、怪异的话语性质，前面提到的聚会。
I mean, not to be flippant for a moment.
我的意思是，暂时不要轻率。
1:56:19 It’s a little bit like who do you show your worst sides to the people you love?
这有点像你会向你爱的人展示你最坏的一面吗？
My intense irritability is something that tends to be felt most by people who are closest to me because if I expressed it to absolutely everybody I met at the party or a social setting, it would be hard.
我的强烈烦躁往往是最亲近的人最能感受到的，因为如果我向聚会或社交场合遇到的所有人表达这种情绪，那就很难了。
I mean, there’s a tendency to lean heavily on the people who are closest to you, the people who will put up with it.
我的意思是，人们倾向于严重依赖最亲近的人，那些能够忍受的人。
And something similar happens in international politics.
国际政治中也发生类似的事情。
1:57:02 You pressure the people who will listen.
你给愿意倾听的人施加压力。
I mean, one of the things you hear a lot in the last year, people ignoramuses in the governments in places like Britain will say, we need to put more pressure on the Israelis to do X.
我的意思是，去年你经常听到的一件事是，像英国这样的国家的政府中无知的人会说，我们需要对以色列人施加更大的压力，让他们做某件事。
And you go, “Well, in part that’s because they will listen.” If you go, “We need to put more pressure on the Ayatollahs in Iran to persuade them that Hamas are really bad and they shouldn’t be doing this,” what the hell do you think they’re going to do?
你会说：“嗯，部分原因是他们会听。”如果你说，“我们需要对伊朗的阿亚图拉施加更大的压力，让他们相信哈马斯真的很糟糕，他们不应该这样做”，你认为他们到底会做什么？
Are they even going to listen to you?
他们甚至会听你的吗？
They don’t give a damn.
他们不在乎。
You’re talking totally different worlds.
你们谈论的是完全不同的世界。
Not just a different language.
不仅仅是不同的语言。
It’s a different world.
这是一个不同的世界。
1:57:46 And by the way, that happens in Israel.
顺便说一下，这种情况发生在以色列。
I mentioned it earlier, but it happens in Israel.
我之前提到过，但这发生在以色列。
When the Hostage Families Forum came about, I spent a lot of time there.
当人质家庭论坛成立时，我在那里度过了很多时间。
I got to know a lot of the families.
我认识了很多家庭。
And they’re remarkable.
他们非常出色。
But one of the things you did notice from them as well was that a lot of them, they protest outside Netanyahu’s house.
但你也从他们身上注意到的一件事是，他们中的很多人在内塔尼亚胡的房子外抗议。
They use clacks and horns and make sure he can never sleep.
他们用敲击声和喇叭来确保他永远无法入睡。
They will put up great big posters by his house of him with bloodied hands and so on.
他们会在他家门口张贴他双手沾满鲜血的大海报等等。
1:58:22 I think as much sympathy as you can for these families, the plight of knowing that your child is sitting in a tunnel in Gaza for a year, a day, an hour is intolerable.
我认为你们对这些家庭表示尽可能的同情，知道你们的孩子在加沙的隧道里坐了一年、一天、一个小时的困境是无法忍受的。
But there’s a reason why the families protested Netanyahu, and that’s because Sinwar didn’t care.
但家人抗议内塔尼亚胡是有原因的，那就是辛瓦尔不在乎。
That wouldn’t work if you said, “Understand my plight.
如果你说“理解我的困境”，那是行不通的。
I’m a Jewish mother and my daughter is thing.” You think Sinwar the heads of Hamas care?
我是一位犹太母亲，我的女儿很重要。”你认为哈马斯领导人关心辛瓦尔吗？
You think the leaders in Qatar who host them care?
你认为接待他们的卡塔尔领导人会关心吗？
1:59:08 The Qatari emir’s mother when Sinwar was killed, praised Sinwar.
辛瓦尔被杀时，卡塔尔埃米尔的母亲赞扬了辛瓦尔。
You couldn’t talk that language to these people, but you can talk that language to the elected prime minister of Israel because that, first of all, he’s somebody who might listen to your pressure, could be pressured.
你不能对这些人说这种语言，但你可以对当选的以色列总理说这种语言，因为首先，他是一个可能会倾听你的压力的人，可能会受到压力。
And secondly he’s simply the only person you can pressure.
其次，他是你唯一可以施加压力的人。
There’s no one else.
没有其他人了。
Hamas doesn’t care.
哈马斯不在乎。
Hezbollah doesn’t care.
真主党不在乎。
Iranian revolutionary government doesn’t care.
伊朗革命政府不在乎。
Let’s just say once, again, the obvious thing that while it is possible to discuss Hamas soldiers as freedom fighters, I’m not one of the folks that can take that perspective.
让我们再说一次，显而易见的事情是，虽然可以将哈马斯士兵视为自由战士，但我不是能够采取这种观点的人之一。
1:59:37 It’s a tough one to take.
这是一个很难接受的事情。
I don’t see how you can call them freedom fighters.
我不明白你怎么能称他们为自由战士。
So this goes to the man from the land of peace and the man from the land of war.
因此，这适用于来自和平之地的人和来自战争之地的人。
1:59:57 There is a lived experience of what it means to grow up in Gaza.
在加沙长大意味着什么，这是一种亲身经历。
And if you fully load that into your brain in a real way, not using the words of good and evil, but in a very deep human sense, from that place, from that place of desperation, from your home and your family is destroyed, doesn’t matter why, doesn’t matter if there’s evil all around you that caused it.
如果你以真实的方式将其完全加载到你的大脑中，不使用善与恶的词语，而是以一种非常深刻的人类意识，从那个地方，从那个绝望的地方，从你的家和你的家人被摧毁，不管为什么，不管你周围是否有邪恶造成它。
It doesn’t matter.
没关系。
The facts are the facts.
事实就是事实。
And from that place, somebody who’s fighting for you can feel like a freedom fighter.
从那个地方，为你而战的人会感觉自己像一名自由斗士。
2:00:40 I think it should be called out that, yes, it can feel that way from the lived experience.
我认为应该指出的是，是的，从生活经历中可以感受到这种感觉。
But Hamas is very clearly since we’re talking about Netanyahu, Hamas is evil.
但哈马斯非常清楚，既然我们谈论内塔尼亚胡，哈马斯就是邪恶的。
Okay.
好的。
Now, you can still in that context discuss the degree to which Netanyahu is the right leader for this moment, and whether he goes too far, whether he’s too politically selfish in the decisions he makes, whether he’s too much a warmonger, whether he’s utilizing the war for his own political gains and is not caring about the death of civilians in Gaza, for example, but more caring about his own political maintaining power.
现在，你仍然可以在这种背景下讨论内塔尼亚胡在多大程度上是此时此刻正确的领导人，以及他是否走得太远，他做出的决定是否在政治上过于自私，他是否是一个好战分子，他是否利用战争来谋取自己的政治利益，而不是关心加沙平民的死亡，而是更关心他自己的政治维持权力。
2:01:32 That’s a perspective that I could steal, man.
这是我可以窃取的观点，伙计。
And that’s a perspective worth we’re discussing, and that’s a perspective of many in Israel hold.
这是一个值得我们讨论的观点，也是以色列许多人所持有的观点。
When they criticize Netanyahu.
当他们批评内塔尼亚胡时。
He’s increasingly less and less popular.
他越来越不受欢迎了。
That’s wrong.
那是错误的。
2:01:43 Opinion polls last month when he was in Washington, it showed it was an all time high.
上个月他在华盛顿时进行的民意调查显示，这一数字创下了历史新高。
But you were saying…
但你是说……
I make my own poll, and according to my poll, I’m the greatest.
我自己做了民意调查，根据我的民意调查，我是最伟大的。
2:01:48 I’m the nicest and the coolest person in the world.
我是世界上最好、最酷的人。
A hundred percent of people agree.
百分之一百的人都同意。
Sorry, I didn’t mean to laugh that much.
抱歉，我本来不想笑的。
Yeah.
是的。
2:02:01 You laughed a little too much.
你笑得有点过分了。
Too long.
太长了。
It’s more than the joke.
这不仅仅是一个笑话。
But you were saying, I mean the…
但你是说，我的意思是……
Okay, let’s steelman the criticism of Netanyahu.
好吧，让我们来谈谈对内塔尼亚胡的批评。
2:02:07 And then steelman, the case for him that he’s the right leader actually.
然后是钢铁侠，他的理由是他实际上是正确的领导者。
Well, the most devastating thing that anyone could come up against Netanyahu is that the 7th happened on his watch.
好吧，对内塔尼亚胡来说，最具毁灭性的事情就是第七次发生在他任内。
2:02:15 After the Yom Kippur War in 1933, Golda Meir who is very distinguished prime minister of Israel, and a remarkable woman, but she effectively took the political hit for the Yom Kippur invasion by Israel’s Arab neighbors happening on her watch.
1933年赎罪日战争后，果尔达·梅厄是一位非常杰出的以色列总理，也是一位杰出的女性，但她实际上因为在她任内发生的以色列阿拉伯邻国的赎罪日入侵而受到了政治打击。
And I would’ve thought that most critics, fair-minded critics of Netanyahu inside Israel would always hold that against him.
我本以为以色列境内大多数批评者、公正的内塔尼亚胡批评者都会以此来反对他。
One of the criticisms you hear a lot as well is this thing of Israel being divided in the year before the 7th because of the judicial reforms.
你也经常听到的批评之一是以色列在七号前一年因司法改革而分裂。
I think there’s a strong case for the judicial reforms in Israel, but it’s a niche Israeli governance issue, which we don’t have to get into.
我认为以色列的司法改革有充分的理由，但这是以色列的一个小众治理问题，我们不必讨论。
The point is that Netanyahu and its government were pushing these reforms through judicial reforms, and it was very divisive and on the streets of Tel Aviv and other cities every weekend.
关键是内塔尼亚胡及其政府正在通过司法改革推动这些改革，这引起了很大的分歧，每个周末都会出现在特拉维夫和其他城市的街道上。
2:03:34 There were protests.
有人抗议。
And the police were tired because they’d spent week after week on overtime policing these protests, which often turned raucous, not to say violent.
警察很累，因为他们一周又一周加班加点地维持这些抗议活动，这些抗议活动常常变得喧闹，更不用说暴力了。
Well, sometimes violent and you could say, “Well, if you see that something is dividing your country this much, might you stop?” There is a claim by some people that one of the things that prompted the 7th was that Hamas and its backers in Qatar and Iran saw the division in Israeli society, saw the Israeli population.
好吧，有时是暴力，你可以说，“好吧，如果你看到某些东西正在分裂你的国家，你可以停下来吗？”有人声称，引发七日事件的原因之一是哈马斯及其在卡塔尔和伊朗的支持者看到了以色列社会的分裂，看到了以色列人民。
2:04:10 Significant chunk of it every week on the streets, shutting down highways, shutting down services and so on, and thought, “Good.
每周都有很大一部分发生在街上，关闭高速公路，关闭服务等等，然后想，“很好。
Now is the time.” In other words, what I quoted Sinwar as saying earlier when he was in prison in Israel was this thing, “One day you’ll be weak, and then I’ll strike.” Maybe that is one of the things that Sinwar thought Israel was very weak.
现在正是时候。”换句话说，我早些时候引用辛瓦尔在以色列监狱时所说的话是这样的：“有一天你会变得虚弱，然后我就会罢工。”也许这就是辛瓦尔认为以色列非常软弱的原因之一。
It had been divided, and therefore the time to strike.
它已经被分裂了，因此是时候发起攻击了。
2:04:39 There’s an argument against that which is that the 7th was in preparation and being planned before the judicial reform process in Israel began.
有一种观点认为，第七次审判是在以色列司法改革进程开始之前就已经在准备和计划中的。
So you can look at it several ways, but you could use that.
所以你可以用多种方式来看待它，但你可以使用它。
You could say, “Look, your nation was divided.
你可以说：“看，你们的国家是分裂的。
Don’t push through anymore on that.” There’s lots of things like that.
不要再在这件事上强求了。”类似的事情还有很多。
You could say that Netanyahu was one of the people responsible for the conception.
你可以说内塔尼亚胡是这一构想的负责人之一。
There were critics of his, including critics who were in the war cabinet who thought that he was too focused on Hamas and not focused enough on Hezbollah.
他遭到了一些批评，其中包括战时内阁的批评者，他们认为他过于关注哈马斯，而对真主党关注不够。
2:05:17 Other people think he was too focused on Hezbollah and not enough on Hamas.
其他人认为他过于关注真主党，而对哈马斯关注不够。
There’s them and many other criticisms that people make of him.
人们对他提出了这些批评和许多其他批评。
I’ve interviewed, I think every political leader in Israel from right to left, pretty much, and I have to say, I don’t think there’s any of them that wouldn’t have responded similarly to the 7th of October to the way he has.
我采访过，我想以色列从右到左的每一位政治领导人，几乎都是这样，我不得不说，我认为他们中没有人不会像他那样对 10 月 7 日做出类似的反应。
Okay.
好的。
2:05:44 So that’s inside Israel.
那是在以色列境内。
Outside of Israel, despite what he said, he is one of the most hated people in the world.
在以色列之外，不管他怎么说，他都是世界上最令人憎恨的人之一。
Just the raw quantity.
只是原始数量。
Relative, he’s a loved by a lot of people, but there’s a lot of people that…
相对来说，他是一个被很多人喜爱的人，但是也有很多人……
there’s a lot of psychological effects that might explain that.
有很多心理效应可以解释这一点。
I mean, it’s sort of strange, if there is a widespread global loathing of the prime minister of a country of 8 to 9 million people.
我的意思是，如果全球普遍厌恶一个拥有 8 到 900 万人口的国家的总理，那就有点奇怪了。
That might mean something more than hatred of the military actions and the policies of the one person.
这可能不仅仅意味着对军事行动和一个人的政策的仇恨。
I mean, there’s an awful lot of people to hate in the world.
我的意思是，世界上有很多人值得憎恨。
2:06:22 There’s a lot of wars in the world.
世界上有很多战争。
It’s always of interest to me, and obviously some of the one things I go into on democracies and death cults is this question of why is this so galvanizing for so many people?
我一直对此很感兴趣，显然我对民主和死亡崇拜的关注之一是这个问题：为什么这对这么多人如此有吸引力？
And I think that is a very, very interesting question.
我认为这是一个非常非常有趣的问题。
Why?
为什么？
By the way, let me do a quick addendum to that.
顺便说一句，让我对此做一个快速的补充。
You can notice something else that when people talk about the Republican failures in foreign policy and the last 30 years or so, it’s very interesting.
你还可以注意到，当人们谈论共和党在外交政策以及过去30年左右的政策上的失败时，这是非常有趣的。
There’s a certain type of person who will immediately mention Paul Wolfowitz and they will say, “Well, Wolfowitz?
有某种类型的人会立即提到保罗·沃尔福威茨，他们会说：“嗯，沃尔福威茨？
You mean deputy undersecretary of defense under George W.
你指的是乔治·W·布什时期的国防部副部长。
Bush?”
布什？”
2:07:16 You think he guided everything?
你认为他指导了一切吗？
Why would that be?
为什么会这样呢？
Other than the fact that his name, as Marc Stein once said, starts with a nasty animal and ends Jewish.
正如马克·斯坦因曾经说过的那样，他的名字以令人讨厌的动物开头，以犹太人结尾，这一事实除外。
That’s a good one.
这是一件好事。
So I do think that there are very deep things at play.
所以我确实认为有非常深刻的事情在起作用。
That’s a good line.
这是一条很好的路线。
There are very deep things at play.
其中有非常深刻的东西在起作用。
2:07:44 Netanyahu, irrespective of anything he does, for a lot of people is a kind of devil.
内塔尼亚胡，无论他做什么，对很多人来说都是魔鬼。
And you have to say, “Well, why is that?” Now, of course, some people will say, “Well, that’s because of his terrible hawkishness and his actions and so on and so forth.”
你必须说：“嗯，这是为什么？”当然，现在有些人会说：“好吧，那是因为他可怕的鹰派态度和他的行为等等。”
2:08:00 …
……
hawkishness and his actions and so on and so forth.
鹰派和他的行动等等。
The case for Netanyahu is that he sees it as his historic purpose to defend the only homeland of the Jewish people and that that’s his life’s mission.
内塔尼亚胡的理由是，他认为保卫犹太人唯一的家园是他的历史目标，也是他一生的使命。
And on that basis, I think he’s been, by any measure, historic leader, he has warned the world about the threat from the mullahs in Tehran.
在此基础上，我认为无论以何种标准衡量，他都是历史性的领导人，他警告世界来自德黑兰毛拉的威胁。
He warned about Iranian revolutionary expansionism across the region, across Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen.
他警告伊朗在整个地区的革命扩张主义，包括伊拉克、黎巴嫩、叙利亚和也门。
And after the 7th, he has held together a very, very difficult set of challenges to keep international pressure at a tolerable level to do all sorts of things, but most importantly to oversee the two war aims that he set out at the beginning.
七号之后，他应对了一系列非常非常困难的挑战，以将国际压力保持在可承受的水平，以做各种事情，但最重要的是监督他一开始设定的两个战争目标。
2:09:07 I thought, let me just express this, I thought like a lot of people, when I heard about the hostages, my immediate instinct was they’re all dead, they’re all going to be dead, we’ll never see them again.
我想，让我表达一下，我和很多人一样，当我听说人质时，我的第一反应是他们都死了，他们都会死，我们再也见不到他们了。
And that was the attitude of a lot of Israelis.
这就是很多以色列人的态度。
But although there are still hostages being held, and as I’ve always said the war could end tomorrow if they were handed back, or at least the beginning of the end of the war could begin tomorrow if they were handed back, nevertheless, because of the actions of not just Netanyahu but The Israeli government, most of the hostages have been returned, did not expect this to happen.
不过，虽然还有人质被扣押，而且正如我一直说的，如果他们被交还，战争可能明天就结束，或者至少如果他们被交还，战争结束的明天就可以开始，然而，因为不仅仅是内塔尼亚胡，还有以色列政府的行动，大部分人质都被归还了，他们没有想到会发生这种情况。
Hamas has not been completely destroyed, but it has been very, very significantly degraded, and you end up in the definition of what a total destruction of Hamas would look like, but they are not anywhere near the capability they were in November of 2023.
哈马斯还没有被完全摧毁，但它的退化已经非常非常严重，你最终可以定义哈马斯被彻底摧毁的样子，但它们的能力远不及 2023 年 11 月时的能力。
2:10:21 Their leadership has almost all been killed.
他们的领导几乎全部被杀了。
The second tier of leadership almost all gone, and this is a just response to what Hamas did.
第二层领导层几乎全部消失，这是对哈马斯所作所为的公正回应。
The moment Netanyahu’s reputation in Israel was at a low early on because of what had happened, but there’s no doubt, and as I say in the final chapter of the book, I mean General Slim had this phrase from Defeat Into Victory, Israel isn’t a victory yet in this conflict.
由于所发生的事情，内塔尼亚胡在以色列的声誉很早就处于低位，但毫无疑问，正如我在本书的最后一章中所说的，我的意思是斯利姆将军在“击败胜利”中说过这句话，以色列在这场冲突中还没有取得胜利。
But when in September last year, there were a set of operational successes, so extraordinary that, I mean, it was just like every day’s news was…
但去年 9 月，出现了一系列运营成功，如此非凡，我的意思是，就像每天的新闻一样……
There was one day, I remember when after the Assad regime file, when the Israeli Air Force took out the entirety of the Syrian Air Force in a day because they didn’t want it falling into the hands of the new Jihadist administration in Syria.
我记得有一天，阿萨德政权提交文件后，以色列空军在一天内消灭了整个叙利亚空军，因为他们不希望它落入叙利亚新的圣战政府手中。
2:11:30 It was story number four on the BBC News website.
这是 BBC 新闻网站上的第四篇报道。
The leadership of Hezbollah, gone, gone.
真主党的领导层消失了，消失了。
The second and third tiers of Hezbollah, gone or wounded.
真主党的第二层和第三层，要么消失，要么受伤。
Iran’s Rolls-Royce, destroyed.
伊朗的劳斯莱斯被毁。
These are very, very significant military achievements and are, in my mind, a just response to the attempts by Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Iranian proxies to destroy the Jewish state.
这些都是非常非常重大的军事成就，在我看来，这是对真主党、哈马斯和其他伊朗代理人摧毁犹太国家企图的公正回应。
Would another Israeli leader have been able to hold firm as Netanyahu has?
另一位以色列领导人是否能够像内塔尼亚胡那样坚定立场？
I don’t know but I do know that any of them would’ve done something similar or would’ve tried to do something similar, because there’s no country on earth, no democracy on earth, which could possibly not respond to such an atrocity.
我不知道，但我确实知道他们中的任何人都会做类似的事情或会尝试做类似的事情，因为地球上没有一个国家，地球上没有一个民主国家，可能无法对这种暴行做出反应。
To the underlying point you made of why do so many people want to call him evil, and so the implication is it’s not just a hatred of Israel, there’s an ocean of hatred for the Jews.
就你提出的根本观点而言，为什么这么多人想称他为邪恶，这意味着这不仅仅是对以色列的仇恨，还有对犹太人的仇恨海洋。
Yes.
是的。
Why is there so much hatred for Jews in the world?
为什么世界上对犹太人有如此大的仇恨？
I would say there’s one reason in particular, it’s a stupid and gullible person’s easy answer.
我想说有一个特别的原因，这是一个愚蠢而容易上当受骗的人的简单答案。
2:13:00 Why does certain things happen in the world?
为什么世界上会发生某些事情？
What is our explanation of chance or unfairness or any number of things?
我们对机会、不公平或许多事情的解释是什么？
Easiest, easiest, stupidest person’s explanation is there’s a small group of people doing it.
最简单、最简单、最愚蠢的解释是，有一小群人在做这件事。
Let’s not say stupid because there’s something in the human mind that craves a nice clean theory of everything that explains all the problems.
我们不要说愚蠢，因为人类头脑中有些东西渴望有一个清晰的理论来解释所有的问题。
2:13:31 It’s not just stupidest-
这不仅仅是最愚蠢的——
Let me rephrase, lowest grade.
让我换个说法，最低等级。
Right.
正确的。
Lowest grade.
最低等级。
Because I have that desire too to simplify everything like-
因为我也有简化一切的愿望，比如-
Be a bit antisemitic, what?
有点反犹太主义，什么？
We’ve all been a bit antisemitic here and there, and just get a few vodkas in me, no.
我们到处都有一点反犹太主义，只是喝了几杯伏特加，不。
2:13:50 To find, I mean, maybe it’s a mathematician in me, it’s like to find a simple explanation for everything.
我的意思是，寻找，也许是我身上的数学家，就像为一切找到一个简单的解释。
Right.
正确的。
Actually, that’s nice for historians do this.
事实上，历史学家这样做很好。
Absolutely.
绝对地。
2:14:07 I agree.
我同意。
Analyzing why the Roman Empire collapsed.
分析罗马帝国灭亡的原因。
2:14:09 It’s so nice to have, especially if it’s a counterintuitive explanation.
拥有它真是太好了，尤其是如果它是一个违反直觉的解释的话。
It’s one of the favorite go-tos, right?
这是最受欢迎的选择之一，对吧？
Is an explanation for all the problems in the world.
是对世界上所有问题的解释。
It’s the lowest resolution analysis imaginable.
这是可以想象的最低分辨率分析。
Why is there traffic?
为什么有流量？
2:14:24 Why did my wife leave me?
为什么我的妻子离开了我？
Why did my wife cheating on me?
为什么我的妻子要欺骗我？
Why did I lose my job?
我为什么丢了工作？
Why did I not get the job?
为什么我没有得到这份工作？
So even on the personal level.
即使在个人层面上也是如此。
Oh, especially on the personal level.
哦，尤其是在个人层面上。
2:14:33 Why did I not get everything?
为什么我没有得到一切？
Somebody must have held me back.
一定是有人拦住了我。
Yeah, and it’s just that hatred of Jews has been such a popular go-to throughout history that you just always return back to the hits, I guess.
是的，只是对犹太人的仇恨在整个历史上一直如此流行，以至于你总是会回到热门话题，我猜。
2:14:40 And what is it special about the Jews as a group that people love to hate?
犹太人这个让人又爱又恨的群体有什么特别之处呢？
Is it just because it’s small number of people?
仅仅是因为人数少吗？
I think several things.
我想有几件事。
Successful?
成功的？
One is small and without by any means saying this is a general rule, but disproportionately highly accomplished in certain fields at certain times.
一个人规模很小，绝不是说这是一条普遍规则，但在某些时期在某些领域取得了不成比例的高度成就。
2:14:58 Prominent is a word I would use, prominent slightly beyond their numbers in certain places.
我会用“突出”这个词，在某些地方突出的程度略高于其数量。
It’s not a full explanation.
这不是一个完整的解释。
I mean all sorts of historical reasons why Jews were involved in banking, but then there are lots of historical reasons why the Scottish people, my own, were involved in banking.
我的意思是犹太人参与银行业的各种历史原因，但苏格兰人民（我自己）参与银行业也有很多历史原因。
And to this day, you don’t find many people who blame all international finance problems on the Scots.
直到今天，你还没有发现很多人将所有国际金融问题归咎于苏格兰人。
So they were just like easy grooves for people to fall into, it seems to me.
所以在我看来，它们就像人们很容易陷入的困境。
We should also mention banking, for some reason, money is a thing that people go to, but Jews have been disproportionately successful in the sciences and engineering mathematics and the arts and so on.
我们还应该提到银行业，出于某种原因，金钱是人们所追求的东西，但犹太人在科学、工程、数学和艺术等方面取得了不成比例的成功。
A sensible person would try to work out why that is and see what is replicable.
一个明智的人会尝试找出原因并看看什么是可以复制的。
2:15:59 A, I don’t use the word stupid again, now a different type of person.
A，我不再用愚蠢这个词了，现在是不同类型的人了。
I’m triggered already.
我已经被触发了。
A different type of person would look at that and say, that must mean they took something from me, and that’s the most zero-sum game there is.
不同类型的人会看到这一点并说，这一定意味着他们从我这里拿走了一些东西，这是最零和的游戏。
2:16:13 It’s an endlessly fascinating subject, because it seems to me that antisemitism is almost certainly a sort of ineradicable temptation of the human spirit at its ugliest and cheapest.
这是一个永远令人着迷的话题，因为在我看来，反犹太主义几乎肯定是对人类精神最丑陋和最廉价的一种不可根除的诱惑。
But because it’s back in our day, it bears some analysis again, and I would say two things about it.
但因为它回到了我们这个时代，所以它再次需要一些分析，我想说两件事。
One is, as I and others have said many times in the past, one of the fascinating things about antisemitism is that it can cover everything at once.
一是，正如我和其他人过去多次说过的那样，反犹太主义的迷人之处之一是它可以同时涵盖一切。
So the Jews get hated for being rich and for being poor, both for being the Rothschilds and for being Eastern European Jews escaping the pogroms.
因此，犹太人因为富有和贫穷而受到仇恨，既因为他们是罗斯柴尔德家族，也因为他们是逃离大屠杀的东欧犹太人。
They can be hated for being religious and for being anti-religious and producing Marxism for instance, hated for religiosity and secularism.
例如，他们可能因为宗教信仰和反宗教以及产生马克思主义而被仇恨，因为宗教信仰和世俗主义而被仇恨。
They can be hated for most recently not having a state and therefore being ruthless cosmopolitans and also hated for having a state.
他们可能因为最近没有国家而被憎恨，因此成为无情的世界主义者，也可能因为拥有国家而被憎恨。
And that makes it something very unusual actually in the history of human bigotry and bias and ugliness.
这使得它在人类偏执、偏见和丑陋的历史上实际上非常不寻常。
But the real thing is, one of my great heroes, Vasily Grossman, says at the center of Life and Faith, almost everything that is worth saying about antisemitism is Grossman’s genius that he could say in three to four pages what most people couldn’t say in an entire life, even after life of study.
但真正的事情是，我的伟大英雄之一瓦西里·格罗斯曼在《生活与信仰》的中心说，几乎所有关于反犹太主义值得一说的事情都是格罗斯曼的天才，他可以用三到四页的时间说出大多数人一生都无法说出的东西，即使是在学习了一生之后。
But there’s this passage in Life and Faith that I quote in my book, which is I just bowled me over when I read it some years ago when he says the interesting thing about antisemitism.
但我在书中引用了《生命与信仰》中的一段话，几年前我读到这段话时，当他谈到反犹太主义的有趣事情时，我简直震惊了。
2:18:29 He says you can meet it everywhere in the academy of sciences and in the games that children play in the yard.
他说你在科学院的任何地方以及孩子们在院子里玩的游戏中都可以遇到它。
But Grossman’s great insight is he says everywhere it tells you not about the Jews, but about the person making the claim.
但格罗斯曼的伟大洞察力在于，他到处都说，它告诉你的不是犹太人，而是提出这一主张的人。
And the most important gift he gives in his analysis is when he says, describes it as a mirror to the person who is making the claims, culminating in this phrase I’ve been trying to make popular, which is he says, “Tell me what you accuse the Jews of, I’ll tell you what you you’re guilty of.” It’s a searingly brilliant insight.
他在分析中给出的最重要的礼物是当他说，将其描述为提出主张的人的一面镜子时，最终我一直试图让这句话流行起来，那就是他说，“告诉我你指责犹太人什么，我会告诉你你犯了什么罪。”这是一个极其精彩的见解。
The Iranian revolutionary government accuses Israel of being a colonial power.
伊朗革命政府指责以色列是殖民国家。
The Iranian revolutionary government has been colonizing the Middle East throughout our lifetimes.
伊朗革命政府一生都在殖民中东。
The Turkish government accuses the Jewish state of being guilty of occupation.
土耳其政府指责犹太国家犯有占领罪。
Do you know Northern Cyprus?
你了解北塞浦路斯吗？
Turks have been occupying half of Cyprus since the 1970s.
自 20 世纪 70 年代以来，土耳其人一直占领着塞浦路斯的一半。
Cyprus is an EU member state and Turkey is in NATO.
塞浦路斯是欧盟成员国，土耳其是北约成员国。
So you can do this on and on.
所以你可以不断地这样做。
The people who accuse the Jewish state like the people who accuse Jews of something almost without fail is the thing they’re guilty of.
那些指责犹太国家的人，就像那些几乎无一例外地指责犹太人的人一样，他们是有罪的。
Look at the supporters of Hamas and Hamas.
看看哈马斯和哈马斯的支持者。
One of the things they say is that Israel is guilty of indiscriminate killing.
他们说的一件事是以色列犯有滥杀罪。
2:20:25 Hamas, hello?
哈马斯，你好？
What were you doing on the 7th?
7号那天你在做什么？
If you see, they’re these crazy guys online who claim, repeatedly claim that for some reason Israeli soldiers will rape Palestinians when they meet them, whether in a prison or on the battlefield or in a hospital.
如果你看到的话，他们就是这些网上疯狂的家伙，他们一再声称，出于某种原因，以色列士兵会在遇到巴勒斯坦人时强奸他们，无论是在监狱、战场还是医院。
It just erupts occasionally.
它只是偶尔爆发。
These people go around and say, “Oh, my God, the IDF are rapists.” Excuse me?
这些人到处说：“天啊，以色列国防军都是强奸犯。”打扰一下？
You are the ones who spent the years after 2016 saying, “Believe all women,” then from the 7th of October said, believe all women except for Jewish women who say they’ve been raped or seen their friends raped, and then you say, “Aha, the Jews are rapists.”
你们是那些在 2016 年之后的几年里说“相信所有女性”的人，然后从 10 月 7 日开始说，相信所有女性，除了那些说自己被强奸或看到朋友被强奸的犹太女性，然后你们说，“啊哈，犹太人是强奸犯。”
2:21:15 You’ve been carrying water for rapists and then go and accuse the Jews of rape.
你给强奸犯挑水，然后又去指控犹太人强奸。
It just works.
它就是有效的。
Every way you do it, it works.
无论你用什么方法去做，它都会起作用。
I do think the thing of psychological projection in the case of Israel is wild.
我确实认为以色列的心理投射是疯狂的。
I mean, it is wild.
我的意思是，它很狂野。
By the way, there’s an interesting thing on this that I tried to get into in the book, which is this thing of why did so much of the world respond the way it did?
顺便说一句，我试图在书中探讨一件有趣的事情，那就是为什么世界上这么多人会做出这样的反应？
I mean, we’re sitting in New York.
我的意思是，我们坐在纽约。
There was not one protest against Hamas in New York after the 7th of October.
10 月 7 日之后，纽约再没有发生过针对哈马斯的抗议活动。
2:21:53 The Believe All Women crowd didn’t come out against Hamas’s rapes.
“相信所有女性”人群并没有站出来反对哈马斯的强奸行为。
The Black Lives Matter movement did not turn their attention to the killing of Israeli children or anything.
“黑人生命也是命”运动并没有将注意力转向杀害以色列儿童或其他任何事情。
Nobody did it.
没有人这么做。
Nobody did it.
没有人这么做。
The one thing that did happen very prominently was that people came out to attack the people who’d been attacked.
确实发生的一件非常突出的事情是，人们出来攻击那些被攻击的人。
And as I say in the opening of the book, I saw that myself down the road from him at Times Square on October the 8th, October the frigging 8th, the protests are in Times Square against Israel, justifying the attacks that were still going on.
正如我在书的开头所说，我在 10 月 8 日、他妈的 10 月 8 日在时代广场看到了自己在时代广场的路边针对以色列的抗议活动，这证明了仍在进行的袭击是正当的。
And this is something that deserves deep self-examination on behalf of people in the West who’ve seen this movement overwhelm parts of our society, I mean degraded parts but parts, bits of the universities and so on.
对于西方人来说，这是值得深入自我审视的事情，他们看到这场运动压倒了我们社会的某些部分，我的意思是退化的部分，而是大学的部分、部分等等。
And I think there’s an explanation for it, by the way, which again goes back to that issue of projection.
顺便说一句，我认为对此有一个解释，这又回到了投影问题。
When you and I last talked on camera, we were talking about my last book, The War on the West.
当你和我最后一次在镜头前交谈时，我们正在谈论我的上一本书《西部战争》。
And I remember saying to you there that one of the things I was talking about in that book was the deeply, deeply, wildly biased, unfair, and inaccurate estimation of the Western past, whereby America’s original sin had to be identified and the original sin is slavery.
我记得在那里对你们说过，我在那本书中谈论的一件事是对西方过去的深刻、深刻、严重的偏见、不公平和不准确的估计，美国的原罪必须被确定，而原罪就是奴隶制。
So America has an original sin.
所以美国有原罪。
2:23:21 Does Ghana have an original sin?
加纳有原罪吗？
No one knows.
没有人知道。
No one really will think it polite to point one out, and you go on and on with these things that I identified in The War in the West, these sins of the West.
没有人会真正认为指出一个人是有礼貌的，而你却不断地谈论我在《西方的战争》中指出的这些事情，这些西方的罪恶。
And they have in recent years been reduced to the claim that countries like the one we’re sitting in are guilty of what?
近年来，他们已经沦为声称像我们这样的国家犯了什么罪？
Colonialism, settler colonialism, white supremacy, slavery, genocide, and a couple of others you can throw in probably.
殖民主义、定居者殖民主义、白人至上、奴隶制、种族灭绝以及其他一些你可能会想到的东西。
One of the things I remember saying to you when we spoke about that was that one of the deep problems of setting up that system of thought, pseudo thought, non-thought, would be thought is that there’s nothing you can do about it.
当我们谈论这个问题时，我记得对你说过的一件事是，建立这种思想体系、伪思想、非思想的深层问题之一是，你对此无能为力。
Even if it was true, there’s nothing you can do about it.
即使这是真的，你也无能为力。
2:24:22 If it turned out that your ancestors in the 18th century once owned a slave, what are you going to do?
如果你的祖先在18世纪曾经拥有过奴隶，你会怎么做？
There’s no mechanism to forgive or be forgiven because you didn’t do it, and there’s no one in life who could accept the apology.
没有任何机制可以原谅或被原谅，因为你没有这样做，而且生活中没有人可以接受道歉。
And I remember setting it up there in The War on the West, I set up this very, very risky, dangerous, unforgivable, unforgiving thing that had been set up about our societies.
我记得在《西方战争》中，我设置了这个关于我们社会的非常非常危险、不可原谅、不可原谅的事情。
But I would say that since October the 7th, there has been an answer for a certain type of person, which is I am from a society where I have been told I am guilty of settler colonialism, white supremacy, genocide, ethnic cleansing, and more.
但我想说，自 10 月 7 日以来，对某一类人来说已经有了答案，那就是我来自一个被告知我犯有定居者殖民主义、白人至上、种族灭绝、种族清洗等罪行的社会。
2:25:16 I’ve been told all of these things.
我被告知了所有这些事情。
I have been put in an ungetoutable of situation of moral burden that can never be relieved because I can’t ask anyone’s forgiveness and nobody can forgive me, but ah, here’s a country which I can accuse of all of these things in the here and now, load my energies, my burdens onto and what’s more I might be able to end it and by doing so would relieve myself.
我已经陷入了一种无法摆脱的道德负担的境地，永远无法减轻，因为我不能请求任何人的宽恕，也没有人可以原谅我，但是啊，这是一个我可以指责此时此地所有这些事情的国家，将我的精力，我的负担加在身上，更重要的是，我也许能够结束它，通过这样做可以减轻自己的负担。
In other words, to slight just, I quote, I tweak Grossman with the people in America elsewhere who’ve fallen into this trap, I tweak him by saying, “On this occasion, tell me what you accuse the Jews of, and I’ll tell you what you’ve been told you’re guilty of.”
换句话说，为了轻视，我引用格罗斯曼的话，我对那些在美国其他地方陷入这个陷阱的人进行了调整，我对他说：“这次，告诉我你指责犹太人什么，我会告诉你你被告知你犯了什么罪。”
Yeah, it’s an interesting kind of projection.
是的，这是一种有趣的投影。
2:26:23 Just to observe some of the sociological phenomena here on top of all this, it does seem that hatred of Jews gets a lot of engagement online.
除此之外，只要观察一下这里的一些社会学现象，对犹太人的仇恨似乎确实在网上引起了很多关注。
So I watch it like a curiosity, like I’m an alien observing Earth, is this dangerous to you or is it just a bunch of trolls and grifters, let’s say cosplaying as Nazis.
所以我好奇地看着它，就像我是一个观察地球的外星人，这对你来说是危险的还是只是一群巨魔和骗子，比如说扮演纳粹分子。
It’s just-
这只是——
Could be both.
可能两者皆有。
…
……
2:26:57 fun to trigger the libs?
触发库有趣吗？
It could be all of this I think it is and a lot more.
我认为这可能是所有这些，甚至更多。
2:27:00 I mean taboos, taboos can be fun to break, I suppose.
我的意思是禁忌，我想打破禁忌会很有趣。
And I suppose there are some people online who have grown up knowing that since the Holocaust, antisemitism was taboo and they’ve run out of, goes back to what we were saying earlier a bit.
我想网上有些人从小就知道，自大屠杀以来，反犹太主义是禁忌，他们已经不再使用了，回到我们之前所说的。
They’ve got bored of that Holocaust smaller course.
他们已经厌倦了大屠杀的小课程。
They’d say, “I’ve heard enough about that.” And maybe those people have gone off in a funny direction as a result, but I don’t think that’s the main.
他们会说：“我已经听够了。”也许这些人因此走向了一个有趣的方向，但我不认为这是主要的。
I think that’s a detail compared to the real thing.
我认为与真实的东西相比，这是一个细节。
The real thing is that antisemitism is back and there is a certain type of person who’s loving it.
真正的事情是，反犹太主义又回来了，并且有某种类型的人喜欢它。
Is it really back?
真的回来了吗？
2:27:56 So I watch a lot-
所以我看了很多——
Well, it never goes away.
嗯，它永远不会消失。
2:27:57 It’s just that since the 7th, I think that it’s had a great resurgence.
只是从7号开始，我认为它有很大的复苏。
And this isn’t to say, I assume and that doesn’t mean that any criticism of Israel is antisemitic, no, it doesn’t.
我认为，这并不是说，也不意味着对以色列的任何批评都是反犹太主义的，不，不是。
But as I have often said, if you don’t ever express any interest in the murder of Muslims in Syria, not any interest in genocide in Sudan, killing of hundreds of thousands of people in Yemen, but on the 8th of October, you are on the street with a placard attacking Israel, I’m sorry, you’re an antisemite for sure.
但正如我经常说的，如果你对叙利亚穆斯林被谋杀、苏丹种族灭绝、也门数十万人被杀没有任何兴趣，但10月8日，你在街上举着攻击以色列的标语牌，我很抱歉，你肯定是一个反犹太主义者。
You may not know you are, but that’s what’s motivating you.
你可能不知道自己是这样的，但这就是你的动力。
It gets a lot of engagement.
它得到了很多参与。
2:28:40 I watched it.
我看了。
It does.
确实如此。
It does.
确实如此。
I watched it.
我看了。
But I mean, it’s one of several things you can always see get huge engagement.
但我的意思是，这是你总能看到获得大量参与的几件事之一。
2:28:44 I mean, if you say that there’s a massive pedophile ring run by prominent politicians, it might be total horse shit, likely to be total horse shit, but it’ll also get a hell of a lot of engagement.
我的意思是，如果你说有一个由著名政客经营的大型恋童癖团伙，那可能完全是马屎，很可能是完全马屎，但它也会得到大量的参与。
But that’s still…
但那仍然是……
2:29:02 so the pedophile ring like Epstein Island, that kind of stuff.
所以恋童癖团伙就像爱泼斯坦岛之类的东西。
Yeah, all which is very interesting.
是的，这一切都非常有趣。
Yeah, it’s like great, all right, cool.
是的，这就像很棒，好吧，很酷。
2:29:08 Let’s get behind that conspiracy.
让我们深入了解这个阴谋。
But the Jews thing, the hatred of Jews is still, that’s the greatest hits still.
但犹太人的事情，对犹太人的仇恨仍然存在，这仍然是最受打击的。
It is.
这是。
2:29:20 And I mean you see it with, I mean some of the people who’ve made minor celebrities of themselves, with a sort of made up version of history with a smattering of this and a little bit of that, and then the just asking questions.
我的意思是，你会看到，我的意思是一些让自己成为小名人的人，他们编造了历史版本，其中有一些这样的东西，然后只是提出问题。
I’m not saying, but there are certain [inaudible 02:29:43] have helped this along.
我不是说，但确实有一些 [听不清 02:29:43] 对此有所帮助。
But as I said earlier, it’s just the lowest grade explanation of a certain type of mind looking for a pattern and looking for meaning.
但正如我之前所说，这只是某种类型的思维寻找模式、寻找意义的最低级解释。
I mean, I can give you just one quick example of why that in the case of Israel is so extraordinary, is the number of otherwise semi-intelligent people who will tell you that the problem is simply that the Israelis need to give the Palestinians and other state.
我的意思是，我可以给你举一个简单的例子来说明为什么以色列的情况如此非凡，那就是有多少半聪明的人会告诉你，问题只是以色列人需要向巴勒斯坦人和其他国家提供帮助。
And if they do, it will solve the problems of the region and the wider world and irrespective of the fact that the Palestinians agreeing given to several states, the claim that this particular land dispute would unlock every other injustice in the world should be seen on its face to be preposterous.
如果他们这样做了，它将解决该地区和更广泛的世界的问题，并且不管巴勒斯坦人是否同意将其交给几个国家，这种特殊的土地争端将解除世界上所有其他不公正现象的说法从表面上看应该是荒谬的。
2:30:50 There is no reason why if the Palestinians got another state either in Gaza or in parts of Judea and Samaria, the West Bank, there is no reason why we should expect the economy of Yemen to boom.
如果巴勒斯坦人在加沙或约旦河西岸的朱迪亚和撒马利亚部分地区建立另一个国家，我们就没有理由期望也门的经济繁荣。
It would not inevitably lead to the mullahs in Tehran giving equal rights to women or anything else.
这不会不可避免地导致德黑兰的毛拉给予妇女或其他任何东西平等的权利。
The most likely thing is you simply have another failed Arab state run by a proxy of Tehran.
最有可能的情况是，你只是有另一个由德黑兰代理人管理的失败的阿拉伯国家。
That’s the best case scenario.
这是最好的情况。
2:31:30 And by the way, even lifelong defenders of the Palestinian cause like Salman Rushdie.
顺便说一句，甚至像萨尔曼·拉什迪这样巴勒斯坦事业的终身捍卫者。
He said recently, he said, “I’ve always been a supporter of the Palestinian people in their course, but it is an unavoidable fact that if another state was given to the Palestinians, it simply be at best another front for the Iranian regime in Iran.” The best.
他最近表示，“我一直是巴勒斯坦人民的支持者，但这是一个不可避免的事实，如果给巴勒斯坦人另一个国家，那充其量只是伊朗政权在伊朗的另一条战线。”最好的。
So why the passion?
那么为什么有激情呢？
Why the unbelievable wild passion about this?
为什么对此有令人难以置信的狂热热情？
And I say some of it can be, should be argued out and so on, and some of it can be explained, but there’s definitely a realm of it, a layer of it, which is simply at that level of this excites something within me, this excites something within me.
我说其中一些可以是，应该被争论等等，其中一些可以被解释，但肯定有一个领域，它的一个层次，它只是在这个水平上，这激发了我内心的某些东西，这激发了我内心的某些东西。
Yeah, there’s something compelling to people about hating Jews.
是的，仇恨犹太人有一些令人信服的东西。
Look at the prominence or semi-prominent people who are willing to play around with the idea that 9/11 was an inside job and somehow it’s done by the Israelis or the Jews.
看看那些愿意玩弄 9/11 是内部活动、不知何故是以色列人或犹太人所为的想法的知名人士或半知名人士。
2:32:21 I mean, look at this shit is going around.
我的意思是，看看这一切都在发生。
I have to admit, there’s a part of my brain that’s pulled towards conspiracies.
我必须承认，我大脑的一部分被阴谋所吸引。
2:32:38 There’s something compelling and fun about a simple explanation for things, what’s really going on behind the scenes.
对事物的简单解释，以及幕后真正发生的事情，是令人信服且有趣的。
Because the real world, when you don’t look into conspiracies, first of all, it’s complicated, and second of all, it’s kind of boring.
因为现实世界，如果你不去探究阴谋，首先，它很复杂，其次，它有点无聊。
It’s a bunch of incompetent people.
这是一群无能的人。
Usually opening up Pandora’s boxes.
通常是打开潘多拉魔盒。
2:32:59 They don’t understand.
他们不明白。
Yeah, it’s pushing buffoons.
是的，它正在推动小丑。
2:33:02 I’ve walked around and hung around with a lot of powerful and rich people, and the thing I learned is they’re just human beings.
我和很多有权势、富有的人一起走过、闲逛过，我学到的是他们也只是人。
I’ve yet to be in a room where exceptionally brilliant psychopaths are plotting.
我还没有去过一个房间里有非常聪明的精神病患者正在密谋。
You never got that invite?
你从来没有收到过邀请吗？
No.
不。
2:33:27 In fact, a lot of people in the positions of power, I mean, I’m just continuously disappointed that they’re not ultra…
事实上，很多掌握权力的人，我的意思是，我只是一直对他们没有极端感到失望……
I love competence.
我喜欢能力。
The places where I’ve seen competence inklings of it is in low-level like soldiers, like low-level, what do you call that?
我看到能力暗示的地方是低级的，比如士兵，比如低级，你管它叫什么？
People that do stuff with their hands.
用手做事的人。
So builders of different kinds like engineering, like craftsmen.
因此，不同类型的建设者就像工程师一样，就像工匠一样。
I’ve seen-
我见过——
Yes, because you’ve got a very specific task that could be highly complicated, but you get to apply yourself to and to solve.
是的，因为你有一个非常具体的任务，可能非常复杂，但你必须全身心投入并解决。
Yeah.
是的。
2:34:01 Over years, you’ve mastered it.
多年来，你已经掌握了它。
It’s passed across generations and so on, but states, craft and that kind of stuff…
它已经代代相传等等，但是国家、工艺之类的东西……
Well, because there’s so many variables.
好吧，因为变量太多了。
2:34:09 I mean, this is one when you’re trying to lure me onto prognostications on Ukraine earlier.
我的意思是，这是当你试图引诱我早些时候对乌克兰进行预测时的情况。
I was saying I’ve seen enough to know that I just don’t know, because I know the amount of things that can change all the time.
我是说我已经见识够多了，知道我只是不知道，因为我知道有多少事情一直在变化。
Some years ago, I was talking to a former public servant in the UK when Boris Johnson was prime minister and COVID started.
几年前，我与英国一位前公务员交谈，当时鲍里斯·约翰逊 (Boris Johnson) 担任首相，新冠疫情爆发。
I mentioned to this friend, I said, “Well, it’s pretty bad luck for Boris that he came in to do one thing, which was Brexit, and then there’s a global pandemic from Wuhan and he’s got to mug up on that and then gets it really wrong.”
我向这位朋友提到，我说：“嗯，鲍里斯来是为了做一件事，那就是英国脱欧，然后武汉爆发了一场全球性的大流行，他必须对此耿耿于怀，然后就大错特错了。”
2:34:54 But anyway, and I was really struck by the fact that this man, man of great insight happened to disagree politically, but said to me, “But Douglas is always like this.” And he said, “Look at Tony Blair came into power in 1997 wanting to reform education in the UK, ends up trying to remake the Middle East.” I mean, as I say, one of the reasons why I am scornful of conspiracy theorists and most conspiracy theories, not to say that there aren’t some that do actually turn out to be to have something in them.
但无论如何，令我震惊的是，这个很有洞察力的人碰巧在政治上不同意，但却对我说：“但道格拉斯总是这样。”他说，“看看托尼·布莱尔 1997 年上台时想要改革英国的教育，最终却试图重塑中东。”我的意思是，正如我所说，这是我鄙视阴谋论者和大多数阴谋论的原因之一，并不是说没有一些阴谋论实际上是有道理的。
It had happens.
它已经发生了。
A lot of things are called conspiracy theories that turn out to be true lab league.
很多被称为阴谋论的东西最终被证明是真正的实验室联盟。
2:35:40 But in general, the suspicion and the scorn I have for people who fall into this is, as I say, it’s a very low grade, low resolution.
但总的来说，我对陷入这种情况的人的怀疑和蔑视是，正如我所说，这是一个非常低的等级，低分辨率。
Look at the world by people who clearly have never seen the wildness of actions in the world and the way that they reverberate and the number of events.
人们显然从未见过世界上行为的狂野性、其影响的方式以及事件的数量。
I mean, I once spoke some years ago to a politician who literally said to me, I won’t name the country, but said to me, “Can you help us out with just how to cope with the day and understand the day-to-day struggle we’re having with the cycle?” And I said, “What are you talking about?” And they said, “Our experience in government is that every day, something comes up, which we have to firefight,” and that’s what we do that day.
我的意思是，几年前我曾经和一位政治家交谈过，他确实对我说，我不会说出这个国家的名字，但对我说，“你能帮助我们解决如何应对这一天并理解我们每天与周期的斗争吗？”我说：“你在说什么？”他们说，“我们在政府的经验是，每天都会出现一些问题，我们必须予以应对”，这就是我们当天所做的。
And then the next day something else comes up, which we have to fight and we’re not getting our policies done.
然后第二天又出现了其他问题，我们必须与之抗争，但我们的政策却没有完成。
And I just thought, for me, that rings an awful lot truer, then that country gets the odd phone call from a member of a Jewish family telling them, it’s like, “Come on.”
我只是觉得，对我来说，这听起来更真实，然后那个国家接到一个犹太家庭成员打来的奇怪电话，告诉他们，就像是，“来吧。”
I do before I forget.
在我忘记之前我会这样做。
2:37:06 When I ask you about Iran, what role do they play in this conflict?
当我问你有关伊朗的问题时，他们在这场冲突中扮演什么角色？
It’s fascinating how it seems like Iran is, fingerprints are everywhere in the Middle East.
令人着迷的是，伊朗的指纹在中东随处可见。
And it’s also fascinating that I have a lot of friends.
令人着迷的是我有很多朋友。
My best friend is Iranian.
我最好的朋友是伊朗人。
It’s fascinating that the Islamic Revolution in Iran took the country from the leadership perspective backwards in such a drastic way and that they’re still in power.
令人着迷的是，伊朗的伊斯兰革命以如此剧烈的方式使该国从领导层的角度倒退，而他们仍然掌权。
That confuses me because I know now it’s possible.
这让我很困惑，因为我现在知道这是可能的。
I don’t know the people of Iran.
我不了解伊朗人民。
Sorry to make the obvious statement, but I just have a lot of friends in Iran and a lot of them, everybody I know, they’re opposes the regime and they’re brilliant, educated, thoughtful, worldly people.
很抱歉做出这样明显的声明，但我在伊朗有很多朋友，他们中的很多人，我认识的每个人，他们都反对这个政权，他们是才华横溢、受过教育、有思想、世俗的人。
And it confuses me that this is one of the, I would say, one of the greatest nations on earth.
令我困惑的是，我想说，这是地球上最伟大的国家之一。
In one of the great cultures of earth.
在地球上最伟大的文化之一。
The cultures and the people’s Iran.
伊朗的文化和人民。
Yeah, I agree.
是的，我同意。
Then you look at that and then you look at the leadership when they’re behind most of the terror groups,
然后你看看这个，然后你看看他们是大多数恐怖组织背后的领导层，
In the region.
在该地区。
2:38:24 Certainly, yeah.
当然，是的。
Can you just speak to that and how is it still the same regime since 1979?
你能谈谈这一点吗？自 1979 年以来，它怎么仍然是同样的政权？
I know, as you know, I start On Democracies and Death Cults with the flight taking the Ayatollah Khomeini or other from Paris to Tehran.
我知道，正如你们所知，我从乘坐阿亚图拉霍梅尼或其他人从巴黎飞往德黑兰的航班开始《论民主与死亡邪教》。
The flight that you say you wish never happened.
你说你希望的航班从未发生过。
I think it’s one of the two worst journeys of the 20th century.
我认为这是 20 世纪最糟糕的两次旅程之一。
What’s the other one?
另一件是什么？
Lenin’s train getting to Petrograd.
列宁的火车开往彼得格勒。
Yeah.
是的。
2:38:54 It’s always about the transportation.
总是与交通有关。
Yes, I know.
是的，我知道。
2:38:57 I’m really a transport guy.
我真的是一个运输人。
No, wait until my book of 10 best journeys.
不，请等到我的 10 个最佳旅程的书。
Yeah, across the world.
是的，在世界各地。
No, just as the train, the Finland station brought the basilis of Bolshevism into Russia.
不，就像火车一样，芬兰车站将布尔什维克主义的堡垒带入了俄罗斯。
2:39:07 So the flight coming from Paris, bringing the Ayatollah Khomeini to Tehran, brought the basilis of Khomeinism, the most radical form of Shi’ite Islam to Tehran and to Iran.
因此，从巴黎起飞的航班将阿亚图拉霍梅尼带到德黑兰，将霍梅尼主义的大本营（什叶派伊斯兰教最激进的形式）带到德黑兰和伊朗。
It’s one of the great tragedies of the modern era, what happened there.
那里发生的事情是现代最大的悲剧之一。
You actually, I have a lot of Persian friends and I had the great good fortune early in my life to have a very close late friend who had grown up in pre-revolutionary Iran, was very fond of the Shah and so on.
事实上，我有很多波斯朋友，我早年很幸运，有一个非常亲密的已故朋友，他在革命前的伊朗长大，非常喜欢国王等等。
Her father had been an ayatollah before the overthrow of the Shah, and everyone had criticisms of him, but when you saw what came…
她的父亲在国王被推翻之前曾是阿亚图拉，每个人都对他有批评，但当你看到发生的事情时……
2:40:00 …
……
criticisms of him.
对他的批评。
But when you saw what came after him, it was among other things, what I learned from her and other friends from that region, was that, I suppose two things.
但当你看到他之后发生的事情时，除了其他事情之外，我从她和来自该地区的其他朋友那里学到的是，我想有两件事。
One is, of course, is that it’s a sort of central conservative insight, being that things can always be worse.
当然，其中之一是，这是一种保守派的核心见解，即事情总是会变得更糟。
They can always be worse.
他们总是会变得更糟。
Never say this is rock bottom, because you might have a Shah with hundreds or even thousands of political prisoners in cells, but you could always have Ayatollah Khomeini butchering them all, including the people who helped him get to power like the communists and the trade unionists who simply were fighting against the Shah and then were very useful for the Ayatollah until he didn’t need them anymore.
永远不要说这是最低谷，因为你可能有一个国王，牢房里关着数百甚至数千名政治犯，但你总是可以让阿亚图拉霍梅尼屠杀他们所有人，包括那些帮助他上台的人，比如共产党人和工会成员，他们只是与国王作斗争，然后对阿亚图拉非常有用，直到他不再需要他们。
2:40:53 But the other thing I learned from that particular friend and others was this thing that, and again, it’s very hard for the western mindset, very hard for the American mindset in particular, that there is such a thing as fanaticism, real fanaticism and real ideological and real religious fanaticism, and the thing that I describe leads to the death cult mindset.
但我从那位朋友和其他人那里学到的另一件事是，对于西方心态来说，特别是对于美国人心态来说，这是非常困难的，因为存在狂热主义、真正的狂热主义、真正的意识形态和真正的宗教狂热主义，而我所描述的东西导致了死亡崇拜心态。
That fanaticism is something which is very easy for the West to forget because we haven’t seen it in a while.
这种狂热对于西方来说很容易忘记，因为我们已经有一段时间没有看到它了。
We get very distant echoes of it in our own societies, really, and we’re highly attuned to hear them, which is good in some ways.
事实上，我们在自己的社会中得到了非常遥远的回声，而且我们非常愿意听到它们，这在某些方面是件好事。
2:41:38 But Khomeinism not only vastly set back the Persian people, the Iranian nation, but has managed to keep it in subjugation since 1979.
但霍梅因主义不仅极大地挫败了波斯人民、伊朗民族，而且自 1979 年以来一直设法使其处于征服状态。
And your question of why gets to one of the biggest questions, really, the answer to which has to be understood, which is, it’s what Solzhenitsyn says at one point in Gulag Archipelago, in that passage where he describes, “When we heard the footsteps on the staircase and the knock was on our neighbor’s door and we knew our neighbor was being taken away, why did we not stop them?”
你的问题为什么涉及到最大的问题之一，实际上，必须理解这个问题的答案，这就是索尔仁尼琴在古拉格群岛的某个时刻所说的话，在他描述的那段话中，“当我们听到楼梯上的脚步声和敲响邻居的门时，我们知道我们的邻居被带走了，为什么我们不阻止他们呢？”
2:42:28 And in the case of the revolutionary government in Iran, it’s the same answer as, whether it’s Hamas governing Gaza with whoever the people in Gaza are who would’ve liked to have seen them overthrown, people don’t realize that despite the rhetoric and everything else, everything changes if the other guy might kill you.
就伊朗革命政府而言，答案是一样的，无论是哈马斯与加沙人民谁谁希望他们被推翻来统治加沙，人们没有意识到，尽管有言辞和其他一切，但如果另一个人可能杀了你，一切都会改变。
And that when the Green Revolution in 2009 started in Iran, why was it put down?
2009年绿色革命在伊朗爆发时，为何被镇压？
Why didn’t it work?
为什么不起作用？
The sort of Iranians who I really hope one day get their country back, why did all these smart young students and others, why after they came out, why was it put down?
我真正希望有一天能夺回自己国家的那种伊朗人，为什么所有这些聪明的年轻学生和其他人，为什么在他们出来后，为什么被镇压？
It was put down because the Basij militia will shoot you in the head and they’ll take you to a prison, as they did with the Iranian students, and they’ll rape you with bottles and kill you.
它被镇压是因为巴斯基民兵会朝你的头部开枪，他们会把你带到监狱，就像他们对伊朗学生所做的那样，他们会用瓶子强奸你并杀死你。
And even a little bit of that goes an awfully long way to tell the rest of society not to do it again.
即使只是其中的一小部分，也足以告诉社会其他人不要再这样做了。
2:43:49 We know it happens like that from films, but too few people understand that regimes like that in Tehran operate like that on a grand scale, on the biggest of scales, and with the ultimate of brutality, and that’s how they stay empower.
我们知道事情就像电影中那样发生，但很少有人了解德黑兰这样的政权是如何大规模、最大规模、最残酷地运作的，而这就是他们保持权力的方式。
And one other thing on that, by the way, which is, I was reminded of this the other day, thinking about this, what I’ve just described as a sort of a problem in democracies is that we like to think everyone thinks like us, and we’d like everyone to be like us, and we believe fictions that we’re taught in films, like everyone basically wants the same things as us, and you go, you haven’t stepped outside the walls of the city if you think that.
顺便说一句，另一件事是，那天我想起了这一点，想到这一点，我刚才描述的民主国家的一个问题是，我们喜欢认为每个人都像我们一样思考，我们希望每个人都像我们一样，我们相信电影中教给我们的虚构故事，就像每个人基本上都想要和我们一样的东西，如果你这么想，你就还没有走出城市的围墙。
2:44:40 But the second thing is this thing of the death cults of why we sort of singly fail to understand that this is possible.
但第二件事是死亡崇拜，为什么我们无法理解这是可能的。
Khomeinism is both very specific and also very strongly linked to totalitarian and radical and extremist death cult movements that are not that far in our past.
霍梅因主义既非常具体，又与我们过去不远的极权主义、激进和极端主义死亡崇拜运动有着密切的联系。
I mean, there’s a moment when Oriana Fallaci interviewed Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979, one of the very few western journalists to do so, she says to him, “These people in the street, this movement, this revolution you’ve begun, it’s guided by hate, it’s hate, it’s all hate.” And Khomeini says, “No, no, it’s love.
我的意思是，奥里亚娜·法拉奇 (Oriana Fallaci) 在 1979 年采访了阿亚图拉·霍梅尼 (Ayatollah Khomeini)，她是极少数接受采访的西方记者之一，她对他说，“街上的这些人，这场运动，你发起的这场革命，它是由仇恨引导的，这就是仇恨，这都是仇恨。”霍梅尼说：“不，不，这是爱。
It’s love.” And it’s actually a scene that appears in The Satanic Verses of Rushdie where that exact same thing happens.
这是爱。”这实际上是《拉什迪的撒旦诗篇》中出现的一个场景，也发生了完全相同的事情。
2:45:48 But I was thinking about this recently because I was thinking, but how can you explain to a western mindset that that’s something that’s going on, that there are people directed by this hate that calls itself love?
但我最近在思考这个问题，因为我在想，但是你如何向西方心态解释正在发生的事情，有人被这种自称为爱的仇恨所引导？
And I was reminded of a book I haven’t read since I was probably a teenager or something, made a great impression on me then.
我想起一本我从十几岁起就没有读过的书，当时给我留下了深刻的印象。
Did you ever read the Tragic Sense of Life?
你读过《人生的悲剧感》吗？
Miguel de Unamuno, a great Spanish existentialist philosopher, died in the ’30s.
米格尔·德·乌纳穆诺，一位伟大的西班牙存在主义哲学家，于上世纪三十年代去世。
Unamuno had an encounter with students at the university in the ’30s when he realized, I mean this is the early period of the Francoists, de Rivera and all those people.
乌纳穆诺在 30 年代与大学里的学生有过一次接触，当时他意识到，我的意思是，这是佛朗哥主义者、德·里维拉和所有这些人的早期时期。
Unamuno is at this meeting and the chant goes up from the eager students who have fallen into this sort of Falangist Francoist ideology already, they end up chanting in front of him as he’s trying to defend the principles by which he has lived his life.
乌纳穆诺参加了这次会议，那些已经陷入这种长枪党佛朗哥主义意识形态的热切学生们开始高呼口号，当他试图捍卫自己生活的原则时，他们最终在他面前高呼口号。
They end up chanting in front of him, “Viva la Muerte,” long live death.
他们最终在他面前高喊“Viva la Muerte”，死亡万岁。
Long live death.
死亡万岁。
And he tries to explain to them, this is a necrophilic chant.
他试图向他们解释，这是恋尸癖的圣歌。
Yeah.
是的。
But those young men in free Francoist Spain shouting long live death, they have their counterparts today.
但那些在自由的佛朗哥统治下的西班牙高呼死亡万岁的年轻人，今天也有他们的同行。
2:47:09 They are the people who taunt Americans, Westerners, Israelis and others with lines like, we love death more than you love life.
他们是那些用“我们热爱死亡胜过你们热爱生命”之类的话来嘲讽美国人、西方人、以色列人和其他人的人。
Yeah, that’s the line you return to.
是的，这就是您返回的线路。
2:47:32 That’s a really difficult line to load in, because if you base your whole existence on that notion then, well, you’re a danger to the world.
这是一条非常难以载入的台词，因为如果你的整个存在都基于这个概念，那么，你就是对世界的危险。
That’s a good foundation for committing evil.
这是作恶的良好基础。
2:47:55 I have to ask, because you mentioned that interview, you had a good interview with Benjamin Netanyahu after October 7th, and I’ve been very fortunate to get the opportunity to interview a few world leaders, it looks like I’ll interview Vladimir Putin and others.
我不得不问，因为你提到了那次采访，10月7日之后你对本杰明·内塔尼亚胡进行了一次很好的采访，我很幸运得到了采访几位世界领导人的机会，看来我会采访弗拉基米尔·普京等人。
Want to have a general question about how do you interview people like this?
想问一个关于如何采访这样的人的一般性问题吗？
Maybe to put your historian hat on of how do you approach the interview of world leaders such that you can gain a deeper understanding in the hope that that adds to the compassion in the world.
也许你可以以历史学家的身份了解一下你如何接受世界领导人的采访，这样你就可以获得更深入的理解，希望这能增加世界的同情心。
So I have a deep sense that understanding people you might hate helps, in the long arc of history, add compassion to the world.
所以我有一种深刻的感觉，了解你可能讨厌的人有助于在历史的长河中为世界增添同情心。
But even just to add understanding is difficult in those kinds of contexts, and maybe it’s more useful to think about, from a historian perspective, of how you need to interview somebody like Hitler or Stalin or Churchill, FDR during World War II.
但在这种情况下，即使只是增加理解也是很困难的，也许从历史学家的角度思考你需要如何采访像二战期间的希特勒、斯大林或丘吉尔、罗斯福这样的人会更有用。
I think about this a lot, especially if it’s a 2, 3, 4, 5 hour conversation.
我经常思考这个问题，特别是如果这是一个 2、3、4、5 小时的谈话。
Well, there’s a lot of weight on you when you do those conversations, isn’t there?
好吧，当你进行这些对话时，你的负担很大，不是吗？
From where?
从哪里？
2:49:24 So who’s watching?
那么谁在看呢？
Is it historians 20 years from then?
是20年后的历史学家吗？
Who knows, I mean, the whole data might be wiped.
谁知道呢，我的意思是，整个数据可能会被擦除。
2:49:30 I suspect there’s a weight on you because every major world leader you interview, and you’ve done some amazing ones, but I mean, presumably you have a set of people saying, “You’ve got to ask him about this, you can’t not address this.” And that’s a very challenging one because of course, although an interview with a politician should not be supine, nor can it be endlessly interrogative, because you’re not the prosecutor, and they don’t have to be the guilty party answering to you.
我怀疑你有压力，因为你采访过每一位世界主要领导人，而且你做了一些令人惊叹的事情，但我的意思是，大概有一群人说，“你必须问他这个问题，你不能不解决这个问题。”这是一个非常具有挑战性的问题，因为当然，尽管对政客的采访不应该是消极的，也不应该是无休止的质疑，因为你不是检察官，他们也不必是对你负责的有罪方。
And I’ve noticed the number of people who interview people, world leaders and others, who go in with a set of those things, and at some point the other party can just, ” I don’t need this.” And people criticizing you don’t realize that, you just can’t do that.
我注意到有很多人在采访人们、世界领导人和其他人时，带着一系列这些东西进入，而在某些时候，对方可能会说，“我不需要这个。”批评你的人没有意识到这一点，你就是做不到。
Yeah, I suppose why journalists behave the way they do, although I have increasingly less and less respect for the journalists, the average journalists, have more and more respect for the great journalists as my respect for the average journalist decreases, because a lot of the journalists seem to be signaling to their own in group.
是的，我想为什么记者会这样做，尽管我对记者、普通记者的尊重越来越少，但随着我对普通记者的尊重越来越少，我对伟大记者的尊重也越来越多，因为很多记者似乎在向自己的群体发出信号。
2:50:34 But there is a lot of pressure on people in that situation to ask what I would say is the dumb question.
但在这种情况下，人们面临很大的压力，不得不问我认为是愚蠢的问题。
Why is it the dumb question?
为什么这是个愚蠢的问题？
The adversarial question that the world leader, the person, is ready for, they’ve answered that question, and what you’re trying to do is I guess one, to signal that you’ve asked the question and to push them.
世界领导人、这个人已经准备好应对对抗性问题，他们已经回答了这个问题，我想你要做的就是发出信号，表明你已经提出了这个问题并推动他们。
Yes, yes.
是的，是的。
Two, you’re trying to just create drama, because really what people that ask you to ask that question, they want you to embarrass that person.
第二，你只是想制造戏剧性，因为真正让你问这个问题的人，他们希望你让那个人难堪。
2:51:26 They hate them and they want you to make them piss their pants or something, or just start crying and run out off the room.
他们讨厌他们，他们希望你让他们尿裤子什么的，或者只是开始哭泣并跑出房间。
Walk out.
退席。
Yeah, walk out in a way that is embarrassing for them, they could be like, look at that pathetic person.
是的，以一种让他们感到尴尬的方式走出去，他们可能会说，看看那个可怜的人。
2:51:44 And that reveals to me nothing except maybe the weakness of the interviewee that they can’t stand up to a tough question.
这对我来说并没有揭示出什么，除了受访者的弱点，即他们无法应对棘手的问题。
Yes.
是的。
But mostly I have to do a lot of thinking because you get attacked a lot if you ask questions from a place of curiosity that actually have a chance to reveal who the person is.
但大多数情况下，我必须做很多思考，因为如果你出于好奇而提出问题，实际上有机会揭示这个人是谁，你会受到很多攻击。
There’s a very interesting line that Robin Day who was quite a distinguished interviewer, a very distinguished interviewer back in the day, said about Jeremy Paxman, who was a very interrogative interviewer in the UK.
罗宾·戴 (Robin Day) 曾是一位非常杰出的面试官，当时是一位非常杰出的面试官，他对杰里米·帕克斯曼 (Jeremy Paxman) 说过一句非常有趣的话，杰里米·帕克斯曼是英国一位非常爱问问题的面试官。
2:52:17 Robin Day, who was quite good at being rude to politicians, but carefully, said the problem with the new approach as he saw it from the ’90s of political interviewing was, he said, “If you think the person you’re speaking to is a liar, you should get them to reveal that they’re a liar, don’t just call them a liar.”
罗宾·戴（Robin Day）很擅长对政客粗鲁，但他很谨慎，他说，从上世纪 90 年代的政治采访中看到的新方法的问题是，“如果你认为与你交谈的人是骗子，你应该让他们透露他们是骗子，而不是仅仅称他们为骗子。”
Yeah, yep.
是的，是的。
I think that is, again, it’s something that a lot of people sitting on the other side of the screen don’t realize, is that it may satisfy them that you call a person a liar to their face, but it doesn’t do anything, and it actually reveals nothing.
我认为，很多坐在屏幕另一边的人都没有意识到，当你当面称一个人为骗子时，他们可能会感到满意，但它没有做任何事情，而且实际上什么也没有透露。
2:52:47 If somebody is a liar and they reveal themselves to be a liar, then that’s something else.
如果某人是个骗子并且他们暴露自己是个骗子，那么那就是另一回事了。
But yes, I mean, I hear you, obviously you have a lot of different voices telling you what to do.
但是，是的，我的意思是，我听到你的声音，显然你有很多不同的声音告诉你该怎么做。
It’s also difficult because one of the things that I don’t think anyone really understands is that in the end it’s just you.
这也很困难，因为我认为没有人真正理解的一件事是，最终只有你一个人。
Yeah.
是的。
I’m sure that you have this about Putin, people say, “I know exactly how you can…” They could give end endless advice, at the end it’s you sitting down talking to him.
我相信你对普京有这样的印象，人们会说，“我完全知道你可以……”他们可以给出无穷无尽的建议，最后是你坐下来和他交谈。
2:53:28 It’s like everybody knows how to behave on the presidential debate stage, but only a few people have done it.
就像每个人都知道如何在总统辩论舞台上表现一样，但只有少数人做到了。
In person it’s actually pretty difficult.
就个人而言，这实际上是相当困难的。
It’s very difficult, because you’ve got all this weird behind the scenes stuff as well.
这非常困难，因为幕后还有所有这些奇怪的东西。
2:53:51 You’ve got all of the games that people play.
您拥有人们玩的所有游戏。
I mean, yeah, I interviewed Zelenskyy, I’m pretty fearless in general, and he was a very human and fascinating human.
我的意思是，是的，我采访了泽连斯基，总的来说，我非常无所畏惧，他是一个非常人性化和迷人的人。
2:53:58 But there is soldiers with guns standing all around.
但周围却站满了持枪的士兵。
And you didn’t have anyone?
而且你身边没有人吗？
2:54:10 No one was packing on your side.
没有人在你身边收拾行李。
I had one friend, a security person, who’s also Ukrainian, so you never know, he could turn on.
我有一个朋友，一名保安，也是乌克兰人，所以你永远不知道他是否会性奋。
You have an infiltrator.
你有一个渗透者。
Yeah, exactly.
是的，完全正确。
2:54:21 No, I mean, that doesn’t have any effect.
不，我的意思是，这没有任何效果。
And by the way, I should mention that, because it’s hilarious to me, but process wise, with Narendra Modi and with anyone, they said it was scripted and all this kind of stuff, I would never do anything scripted, they don’t get to have a say in anything I ask, I have complete freedom.
顺便说一句，我应该提到这一点，因为这对我来说很搞笑，但从流程上来说，对于纳伦德拉·莫迪和任何人来说，他们说这是有脚本的，所有这些事情，我永远不会做任何有脚本的事情，他们对我提出的任何要求都没有发言权，我有完全的自由。
Sometimes you’ll have people on the team very politely nudge like, “Hey, can you,” and I’ll very politely say, “Thank you,” smile, but that doesn’t mean I have to fucking do it.
有时团队中的人会非常礼貌地轻推，比如“嘿，你可以吗”，我会非常礼貌地说“谢谢”，微笑，但这并不意味着我必须他妈的这样做。
Right.
正确的。
I can do whatever the hell I want.
我可以做任何我想做的事。
2:54:59 By the way, with world leaders it doesn’t happen, it happens more with CEOs, because they have usually PR and comms people, they’ll just be like very politely, “Hey, you know the thing about when they, the sexual assault harassment charges they’ve had, could we just, there’s no reason to really linger on that.”
顺便说一句，对于世界领导人来说，这种情况不会发生，而对于首席执行官来说，这种情况更多发生，因为他们通常有公关和通讯人员，他们只会非常有礼貌地说道，“嘿，你知道他们的性侵犯骚扰指控是什么，我们可以吗，没有理由真正在这件事上徘徊。”
We don’t have to do that, yeah.
我们不必这样做，是的。
2:55:25 One of my favorite things anyone’s ever said, its only ever happened, I know a couple of cases of this happening in private.
这是我最喜欢的人说过的话之一，它只发生过，我知道一些私下发生的案例。
A friend of mine once years ago was debating against the, this is before the Civil War in Syria, was debating something to do with the Middle East, and one of the people on the other side was the then Syrian ambassador in London.
我的一个朋友几年前曾经辩论过，这是在叙利亚内战之前，辩论一些与中东有关的事情，而另一边的一个人是当时的叙利亚驻伦敦大使。
The then Syrian ambassador in London says something about the Israeli treatment of the Palestinians, and my friend stands up and starts talking about Assad seniors’ massacre of the Palestinians in Hama, where they killed like 10,000 Palestinians in a day.
当时的叙利亚驻伦敦大使谈到了以色列对待巴勒斯坦人的方式，我的朋友站起来，开始谈论阿萨德高层在哈马对巴勒斯坦人的屠杀，他们在那里一天内杀害了大约 10,000 名巴勒斯坦人。
And my friend starts talking about the Hama massacre by Assad senior, and the big fat Syrian ambassador stands up to respond, and he says, “That is none of your business.” And my friend was like, “Oh, I thought we were going to get a denial.”
我的朋友开始谈论阿萨德老大对哈马的屠杀，大胖叙利亚大使站起来回应，他说，“这不关你的事。”我的朋友说，“哦，我以为我们会被拒绝。”
Let me just ask you one more thing about Netanyahu, because I also have the opportunity to do a three-hour interview with him at this stage.
我再问你一件关于内塔尼亚胡的事情，因为现阶段我也有机会对他进行三个小时的采访。
2:56:21 And I’ve been, if I’m just being honest, very hesitant to do it, and I just don’t know how a conversation there could help add compassion to the world.
老实说，我一直非常犹豫要不要这样做，我只是不知道那里的对话如何能够帮助世界增添同情心。
And that particular topic, no matter how well you do it, you do take on a very large number of people that will just make it their daily activity to hate you and to write about it and to post about it and to accuse you of things.
而那个特定的话题，无论你做得有多好，你都会遇到很多人，他们只会恨你、写文章、发帖子、指责你，成为他们的日常活动。
In some sense, I don’t want to lose the part of me that’s vulnerable to the world.
从某种意义上说，我不想失去自己对世界脆弱的那部分。
People have very little understanding of things if they’re willing to say that because you’re sitting down and talking with somebody you are ergo platforming them, advancing their cause, being used, being a shill, or whatever like that.
如果人们愿意这么说，那么他们对事情的理解就很少，因为你坐下来与某人交谈，因此你就是在平台化他们，推进他们的事业，被利用，成为托儿，或者类似的事情。
2:57:12 You might be actually just finding some things out, which I think is something you do expertly.
你可能实际上只是发现了一些事情，我认为这是你擅长做的事情。
And another thing that your critics wouldn’t realize is that life is long, and hopefully, God willing, we’re both around for a long time, and therefore you don’t blow everything up at the request of some twat online.
另一件你的批评者没有意识到的事情是，生命是漫长的，希望上帝保佑，我们都存在很长一段时间，因此你不会应网上某些笨蛋的要求而毁掉一切。
2:57:51 But I do think that a superpower of a kind is to identify the people whose opinion you care for and worry about their opinion, and no one else’s, really, and you just keep your own guiding light.
但我确实认为，一种超级大国就是识别出你关心并担心他们的观点的人，而不是其他人的观点，真的，你只需要保留自己的指路明灯。
That’s what’s always done it for me, is that I’ve always said I wouldn’t care if I was the only person with my opinion and billions of people disagreed.
这就是我一直以来所做的事情，我总是说，如果我是唯一一个持我观点的人，而数十亿人不同意，我也不会在意。
I mean, I might be curious if the whole planet disagreed with me, but it doesn’t, fundamentally that’s not why…
我的意思是，我可能会好奇整个星球是否不同意我的观点，但事实并非如此，从根本上来说这不是原因……
2:58:20 I’ll send you Churchill’s great speech on the death of Chamberlain.
我将向您发送丘吉尔关于张伯伦去世的精彩演讲。
I mean it.
我是认真的。
He says one of the most wise and brilliant things.
他说了最明智、最精彩的事情之一。
I was thinking about it slightly earlier when you were talking about Zelenskyy, because one of Churchill’s greatnesses was his magnanimity, and when his great political opponent, Chamberlain died in 1940, and Churchill had just taken over as prime minister, he could have used the opportunity, and we might even say that some politicians in our day won’t be able to resist the opportunity, he could have used the opportunity to say, you see, I was right, and Chamberlain didn’t know what the hell he was doing and he’s led us into this mess, and you should have all listened to me, because that would’ve been a good time.
刚才你说泽伦斯基的时候我就在想，因为丘吉尔的伟大之处之一就是他的宽宏大量，当他伟大的政治对手张伯伦在1940年去世，丘吉尔刚刚接任首相时，他本可以利用这个机会，我们甚至可以说，我们这个时代的一些政客无法抗拒这个机会，他本可以利用这个机会说，你看，我是对的，而张伯伦不知道什么是他在做什么，他把我们带入了这个烂摊子，你们都应该听我的，因为那将是一个美好的时光。
It would’ve been a good time to say that, that would’ve been one for the win, as they say.
现在是这么说的好时机，正如他们所说，这将是胜利的时机。
2:59:16 But Churchill doesn’t do that in his great eulogy for Chamberlain.
但丘吉尔在他对张伯伦的伟大悼词中并没有这样做。
He talks about how hard it is for mankind to operate in the world, and how you can do it successfully.
他谈到人类在世界上生存是多么困难，以及如何才能成功。
He very movingly says, he doesn’t even mention the name of Hitler, he says, “What were Neville Chamberlain’s flaws?” He says, “Desiring of human peace, to be seeking peace,” and he says, “and the curse that he had was he was led astray by a very wicked man.” But then he has this great passage where Churchill says, beautiful resonant passage about how, he says, “It’s not given to men happily for them, for otherwise life would prove intolerable to foresee or to predict to any great extent the unfolding course of events.” And he says, “In one phase, men seem to have been right and in another they’re proved wrong,” and then a different scale of values emerges.
他非常动人地说，他甚至没有提到希特勒的名字，他说：“内维尔·张伯伦的缺点是什么？”他说，“渴望人类和平，寻求和平，”他说，“他所受到的诅咒是，他被一个非常邪恶的人引入歧途。”但接下来他有丘吉尔所说的这段伟大的段落，一段优美而引起共鸣的段落，他说，“这并不是为人们带来快乐的，因为否则生活将无法忍受在很大程度上预见或预测事件的发展过程。”他说，“在一个阶段，人们似乎是对的，但在另一个阶段，他们被证明是错误的”，然后出现了不同的价值观。
3:00:14 And he says, “What is the worth of all this?” He says, “The only guide to a man is his conscience, the only shield his memory, his rectitude, and the sincerity of his actions.” In fact, he says, ” It doesn’t matter what happens, if you have this,” finishes it he says, “However the fates may play, but if you have this shield to guard you,” he says, “you march always in the ranks of honor.” All that can guide a man is that.
他说：“这一切有什么价值？”他说：“一个人唯一的向导是他的良心，是他的记忆、他的正直和他行为的真诚的唯一盾牌。”事实上，他说，“如果你有这个，发生什么并不重要，”最后他说，“无论命运如何发挥，但如果你有这个盾牌来保护你，”他说，“你将永远走在荣誉的行列中。”唯一能指导一个人的就是这样。
If you lose sight of it, and some people do, and maybe everyone does at some point, then it’s a challenge, and then you get buffeted by the tos and throes of the waves of popular opinion, and that’s dangerous.
如果你忽视了这一点，而有些人这样做了，也许每个人在某些时候都这样做了，那么这就是一个挑战，然后你就会受到大众舆论浪潮的冲击，这是危险的。
But if you keep sight and hold onto what you believe, a million billion foes don’t matter.
但如果你保持目光并坚持你的信念，一百万个敌人就不再重要。
Yeah, that is the path.
是的，那就是路径。
3:01:18 We were talking offline about the great biography of Churchill.
我们在线下谈论丘吉尔的伟大传记。
Churchill himself made mistakes, then admitted the mistakes, and we can even say was proud of the mistakes.
丘吉尔自己犯了错误，然后承认了错误，甚至可以说为自己的错误感到自豪。
I mean-
我的意思是——
He learned from them.
他向他们学习。
Learned from them, that’s all the best you could do.
向他们学习，这就是你能做的最好的事情。
3:01:32 The worst you could probably do is being afraid of making mistakes.
你可能做的最糟糕的事情就是害怕犯错误。
That’s what T.R.
这就是 T.R.
3:01:39 famously said in the Man in the Arena Speech.
竞技场演讲中的名言。
T.R.
T.R.
3:01:43 Yeah, the old T.R.
是的，老T.R.
Those two have made quite a few mistakes, but are, in the end, some of the greatest humans ever created.
这两个人犯了很多错误，但最终成为有史以来最伟大的人类之一。
Norm MacDonald, Churchill, and Teddy Roosevelt.
诺姆·麦克唐纳、丘吉尔和泰迪·罗斯福。
Did we do Norm?
我们做了规范吗？
3:02:05 I think we did him before coming on air.
我想我们在播出之前就已经完成了他的任务。
Oh, before coming on air, yeah.
哦，在播出之前，是的。
3:02:06 Well, he’s always everywhere in the air around us, one of the great comedians.
嗯，他总是在我们周围的空气中无处不在，是一位伟大的喜剧演员。
3:02:18 All right, what gives you hope about this whole thing we have going on, human civilization?
好吧，是什么让你对我们正在发生的这一切——人类文明——抱有希望？
You’ve been covering some of the darker aspects, The Madness of Crowds, the madness of geopolitics, the madness of wars.
你一直在报道一些更黑暗的方面，人群的疯狂，地缘政治的疯狂，战争的疯狂。
Sometimes when the sun shines through the clouds and there’s a smile on Douglas Murray’s face, what’s the source of the smile and the warmth?
有时，当阳光透过云层照射进来，道格拉斯·穆雷的脸上露出微笑时，微笑和温暖的源泉是什么？
Endless numbers of things.
无数的事情。
3:02:44 Endless numbers of things.
无数的事情。
I get enormous encouragement from smart young people, actually, that’s just the best thing ever.
我从聪明的年轻人那里得到了巨大的鼓励，实际上，这是有史以来最好的事情。
I was in Kiev the other week and I was asked to speak to students at the university, and irrespective to the rather tricky situation that they are in, it’s just great to, as you know, to speak to a roomful of students about things, and then hang around afterwards and just answer all the questions you can and hear from them about their lives and what they want to do, and remembering what you were like at their age and how goofy you were and how much you were going to get wrong, and how much you had to learn and how much you were going to enjoy it, and seeing the opportunities they have in front of them if things go right.
前一周我在基辅，我被要求与大学的学生交谈，不管他们所处的情况相当棘手，如你所知，与一屋子的学生谈论事情，然后在周围闲逛，回答所有你能回答的问题，从他们那里听到关于他们的生活和他们想做的事情，并记住你在他们这个年纪的样子，你是多么愚蠢，你会犯多少错误，以及你必须做多少事情。学习以及你会多么享受它，并看到如果一切顺利的话他们面前的机会。
Just smart young people giving enormous encouragement all the time, that’s the best thing, I mean, it’s just-
聪明的年轻人一直给予巨大的鼓励，这是最好的事情，我的意思是，这只是——
Yeah, you can see endless possibility in their eyes, and they’re not burdened by, let’s say, the cynicism that builds up.
是的，你可以在他们的眼中看到无限的可能性，而且他们并没有被逐渐形成的愤世嫉俗所困扰。
Even the cynicism though, I mean, you can resist that.
我的意思是，即使是愤世嫉俗，你也可以抵制这一点。
3:04:08 I mean, I’ve got quite a deep well spring of it, but I mean, you can’t only fall into that, because there’s so much else it doesn’t cover.
我的意思是，我有一个相当深的井泉，但我的意思是，你不能只陷入其中，因为还有很多其他东西它没有涵盖。
It’d be like spending your life being ironic.
这就像你的一生都在讽刺。
So that said, you have seen a lot of war, especially recently and directly, Ukraine, Israel, has that changed you?
也就是说，你亲眼目睹了很多战争，尤其是最近的直接战争，乌克兰、以色列，这改变了你吗？
3:04:30 Has that dimmed some of that warmth and light?
这是否减弱了一些温暖和光明？
That’s a very difficult question to answer.
这是一个很难回答的问题。
3:04:50 I don’t know.
我不知道。
Differs day to day.
每天都不同。
So sometimes there’s a heaviness there because of the things you’ve seen?
所以有时候你会因为所看到的事情而感到沉重？
Sure, yeah, at times, at times, yeah.
当然，是的，有时，有时，是的。
Do you regret going as much as you have to the front lines?
您是否后悔去前线？
No, no.
不，不。
3:05:10 One of the reasons why a war is for a writer kind of the ultimate subject is because you see life weirdly at its ultimate.
战争对于作家来说是终极主题的原因之一是因为你以奇怪的方式看待生命的终极。
Very strange, strange thing, but it is the truth.
很奇怪，很奇怪的事情，但这是事实。
Death, when it’s in front of you, is something which gives a terrible clarity to everything, and you see how people will love and even sometimes laugh more, how they’ll…
死亡，当它在你面前时，是一种让一切都变得可怕的清晰，你会看到人们会如何去爱，甚至有时会笑得更多，他们会如何……
There’s an essay by Montaigne that’s always on my mind called Why We Weep and Laugh at the Same Thing.
蒙田有一篇文章一直萦绕在我的脑海里，名叫《为什么我们为同一件事哭泣和笑》。
Everything’s just more, and the real thing is that you see the very, very best of people and the very worst, and they’re beside each other.
一切都只是更多，而真正的事情是，你看到了最好的人和最坏的人，他们就在彼此身边。
There some…
有一些…
3:06:25 So I’ve gotten a bunch of chances to interact with soldiers on the front line in Ukraine, and there is some level of all the bullshit niceties, or whatever it is, of civilian life is all stripped away.
所以我有很多机会与乌克兰前线的士兵互动，在某种程度上，平民生活中所有的废话细节，或者无论是什么，都被剥夺了。
It just seems more honest somehow.
不知何故，它似乎更诚实。
Yes, absolutely, absolutely.
是的，绝对，绝对。
3:06:43 Well, I mean, I couldn’t agree more.
嗯，我的意思是，我完全同意。
And there’s the wild clarity about things, not because of enemies or anything like that, but because of, I think I mentioned, I joked about this with some Ukrainian soldiers in ’22 because they wanted a cigarette, and we stepped outside, I accompanied them outside because they weren’t allowed to smoke indoors in this hotel, which there were rockets falling.
事情非常清晰，不是因为敌人或类似的事情，而是因为，我想我提到过，我在22年和一些乌克兰士兵开玩笑，因为他们想要一支香烟，我们走到外面，我陪他们出去，因为他们不允许在这家酒店的室内吸烟，那里有火箭弹落下。
And I said to them, “Isn’t it strange that fear of secondhand smoke has superseded this?” But I don’t know, it’s-
我对他们说：“对二手烟的恐惧取代了这种恐惧，这不是很奇怪吗？”但我不知道，这是——
And seeing the humor in that, when you’re on the front line, when you’re fighting in a war, the humor of that is somehow just perfectly delicious.
看到其中的幽默，当你在前线，当你在战争中战斗时，其中的幽默在某种程度上是非常美味的。
3:07:33 You could just laugh all day about that.
你可以为此笑一整天。
And the absurdity of life is just right there-
而人生的荒唐之处就在于此——
Yes, that’s right.
是的，没错。
And it’s so honest and it’s so beautiful.
它是如此诚实，如此美丽。
3:07:48 And that’s why a lot of soldiers are traumatized, they’re destroyed by war, but they also miss it.
这就是为什么很多士兵受到创伤，他们被战争摧毁，但他们也怀念战争。
That’s right, that’s right.
没错，没错。
3:07:56 Absolutely, oh my God, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
绝对，天哪，是的，是的，是的，是的，是的。
There’s an intimacy to the whole thing.
整个事情有一种亲密感。
Absolutely.
绝对地。
3:08:01 Well, that’s right, I mean, everyone says, I never felt more alive, yeah, and I wouldn’t do anything different.
嗯，没错，我的意思是，每个人都说，我从来没有感觉更有活力，是的，我不会做任何不同的事情。
Well, I hope, just like Churchill, you keep fighting the good fight and not listening to anybody, and I’ll try to learn to do the same.
好吧，我希望，就像丘吉尔一样，继续为正义而战，不听任何人的意见，我会努力学习做同样的事情。
3:08:12 Douglas, I’m a huge fan, thank you for doing this.
道格拉斯，我是我的忠实粉丝，谢谢你所做的一切。
It’s been a great pleasure, and right back at you.
我很高兴，马上就回到你身边。
Thank you.
谢谢。
3:08:28 Thanks for listening to this conversation with Douglas Murray.
感谢您收听与道格拉斯·默里的对话。
To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description.
为了支持这个播客，请在说明中查看我们的赞助商。
And now let me leave you with some words from Bertrand Russell, “The problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”
现在让我用伯特兰·罗素的一句话来告别你们：“世界的问题在于，傻瓜和狂热分子总是对自己如此自信，而聪明的人却充满了怀疑。”
3:08:52 Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
感谢您的收听，希望下次再见。
本集资源与出处
- 视频在 YouTube 收看
- 音频官方 MP3 直链来自 lexfridman.com 官方播客 RSS
- 官网Lex Fridman 官网本集页面
- 文稿官方 Transcript（lexfridman.com）
