戴夫·史密斯：以色列、乌克兰、爱泼斯坦、摩萨德、阴谋论与反犹主义

All the people who sold the war in Iraq, they lied us into war after a war.

所有在伊拉克出卖战争的人，他们在一场战争之后欺骗我们进入战争。

00:00 They’ve bankrupted the country, damn near destroyed the dollar and no one loses their job.

他们让国家破产，几乎摧毁了美元，但没有人失去工作。

No one even gets in trouble over any of this.

甚至没有人会因此而陷入麻烦。

If you make everybody monsters and they’re not human beings, well, you can’t do diplomacy with monsters, you can’t negotiate with monsters, but you can with humans.

如果你把每个人都变成怪物而不是人类，那么你就不能与怪物进行外交，你不能与怪物谈判，但你可以与人类。

Maybe there are times where you shouldn’t negotiate or you can’t negotiate with humans, but it’s better if you can.

也许有些时候你不应该谈判，或者你不能与人类谈判，但如果可以的话那就更好了。

And we could use a lot more of that thinking.

我们可以更多地利用这种想法。

Donald Trump has put a lot of political capital chips into the middle of the table that, “I can end this war.” And he’s going to look very, very bad if he can’t.

唐纳德·特朗普在桌子中间投入了大量政治资本筹码，“我可以结束这场战争”。如果他做不到，他看起来会非常非常糟糕。

00:44 So he’s very highly incentivized to get this thing done as quick as possible.

所以他非常有动力尽快完成这件事。

You are fighting in a way that produces more of the thing that you’re fighting, and so the first step is to stop doing that.

你的战斗方式会产生更多你正在战斗的东西，所以第一步就是停止这样做。

Your cure is making the patient more sick.

你的治疗方法正在使病人病情加重。

So stop doing that.

所以别再这样做了。

And then let’s see if maybe we could heal.

然后让我们看看是否可以治愈。

Where are the tapes?

磁带在哪里？

Why is everyone talking about the flight logs and the files?

为什么每个人都在谈论飞行日志和文件？

Where are the tapes?

磁带在哪里？

This guy was clearly taping people to blackmail them.

这家伙明显是在录音勒索人。

Why does anything need to be redacted for national security?

为什么为了国家安全需要修改某些内容？

I’m sorry.

对不起。

You’re telling me there’s a pedophile ring and we can’t tell you everything about it for national security?

你告诉我有一个恋童癖团伙，但为了国家安全我们不能告诉你一切？

Why would that be related to national security?

为什么会涉及国家安全？

The following is a conversation with Dave Smith, an outspoken and at times controversial anti-war libertarian comedian and podcast host.

以下是与戴夫·史密斯的对话，戴夫·史密斯是一位直言不讳、时常引起争议的反战自由主义喜剧演员和播客主持人。

01:26 This is the Lex Fridman podcast to support it.

这是 Lex Fridman 播客来支持它。

Please check on our sponsors in the description.

请在说明中查看我们的赞助商。

And now, dear friends, here’s Dave Smith.

现在，亲爱的朋友们，这是戴夫·史密斯。

01:45 You are a longtime libertarian, perhaps an anarcho-capitalist.

你是一个长期的自由主义者，也许是一个无政府资本主义者。

We can talk about that.

我们可以谈谈这个。

Can you explain the different variants, flavors of libertarianism and where you stand among those variants?

您能解释一下自由主义的不同变体、风格以及您在这些变体中的立场吗？

Yeah, so there’s almost like with left-wing schools of thought or right-wing schools of thought, there’s many different camps and different thinkers.

是的，所以几乎就像左翼思想流派或右翼思想流派一样，有许多不同的阵营和不同的思想家。

02:00 And so within the kind of broader theme of libertarianism, there was a lot of influence from people like Ayn Rand, Milton Friedman, Thomas Sowell.

因此，在更广泛的自由主义主题中，艾因·兰德、米尔顿·弗里德曼、托马斯·索威尔等人的影响很大。

Those were I think some of the more mainstream figures.

我认为这些是一些更主流的人物。

And then there’s the Ron Paul round of Libertarianism, which is kind of distinct from that other camp where they’re much more of an emphasis on foreign policy.

然后是罗恩·保罗回合的自由主义，这与其他阵营不同，他们更强调外交政策。

All of them kind of fall into the radical minarchist points of view.

他们都属于激进的小政府主义观点。

And then there’s Rothbard, anarcho-capitalist.

然后是罗斯巴德，无政府资本主义者。

And there’s also David Friedman who’s an anarcho-capitalist, but from a completely different perspective than Murray Rothbard.

还有大卫·弗里德曼（David Friedman），他是一个无政府资本主义者，但他的观点与穆雷·罗斯巴德（Murray Rothbard）完全不同。

I would probably be most closely with the Rothbard School, which is very similar to Ron Paul.

我可能与罗斯巴德学派关系最密切，它与罗恩·保罗非常相似。

But even maybe a little bit further in that, the very little bit of government that Ron Paul might support.

但甚至可能更进一步，罗恩·保罗可能支持的政府也很小。

You’ve been a big fan of Ron Paul.

你一直是罗恩·保罗的忠实粉丝。

03:00 Can you explain what you admire about him?

你能解释一下你欣赏他的什么地方吗？

A big fan is an understatement.

一个大粉丝是轻描淡写的。

03:04 I think Ron Paul is the greatest living American hero.

我认为罗恩·保罗是当今最伟大的美国英雄。

I revere him on the level of the founding fathers, Thomas Jefferson or George Washington, number one.

我对他的尊敬相当于开国元勋托马斯·杰斐逊或第一号乔治·华盛顿的水平。

I mean all of the major issues that he was correct in his understanding of them, his diagnosis of what caused these problems and his solutions.

我的意思是，他对所有重大问题的理解、对导致这些问题的原因的诊断以及他的解决方案都是正确的。

And in hindsight, there’s just a million different examples of where almost everybody today would agree, even though his ideas were very controversial at the time, it’d be like, “Oh my God, if we had just listened to Ron Paul about that, we’d be so much better off.” But I think there’s something almost deeper than that about why Ron Paul inspires so much love from so many people is okay, so number one, the guy, he was a champion of these views for decades when there was no payoff for it at all.

事后看来，只有一百万个不同的例子，几乎今天每个人都会同意，尽管他的想法在当时非常有争议，但就像是，“天哪，如果我们听听罗恩·保罗的观点，我们会过得更好。”但我认为，为什么罗恩·保罗能激发这么多人如此多的爱是有更深层次的原因的，所以第一，这个家伙，几十年来他一直是这些观点的拥护者，但根本没有任何回报。

Where he was just kind of alone in the woods, they used to call him Dr No because he was a medical doctor.

当他独自一人在树林里时，人们常常叫他“诺博士”，因为他是一名医生。

04:12 And then he would be the lone no vote in Congress all the time, on the bills that the entire Congress, bipartisan agreement, everything, and there’s one vote against it.

然后他将一直是国会中唯一一个对整个国会的法案、两党协议、一切都投反对票的人，只有一票反对。

And that he would be that guy.

他就是那个人。

He clearly kept doing what he was doing simply because he believed it was right, not because there was any benefit for him.

他显然继续做他正在做的事情只是因为他相信这是对的，而不是因为对他有任何好处。

In fact, he dealt with a lot of headaches for the views that he had.

事实上，他因为自己的观点而遇到了很多麻烦。

And then he was just a genuine person of integrity.

然后他就是一个真正正直的人。

He’s the only congressman who I’ve ever heard this about.

他是我听说过的唯一一位国会议员。

And DC insiders, people on the hill will say this.

DC内部人士、山上的人都会这么说。

He was the only congressman of my lifetime who the lobbyists simply stopped visiting.

他是我一生中唯一一位游说者不再拜访的国会议员。

He was the only one who, they just stopped going to his office because they were just like, “There’s just no getting through to this guy.” He was just not playing politics like that.

他是唯一一个他们不再去他办公室的人，因为他们就像是，“根本无法联系到这个人。”他只是没有那样玩政治。

05:00 And you imagine what it must’ve been like from the lobbyist perspective when they first tried to go there and they’d be like, “All right, listen, we really need you to vote yes on this or that.” And he was like, “The constitution doesn’t authorize us to do that.” And they’re like, “What?

你可以想象，从说客的角度来看，当他们第一次尝试去那里时，他们会说，“好吧，听着，我们真的需要你对这个或那个投赞成票。”他说，“宪法没有授权我们这样做。”他们就像，“什么？

Who in this town even talks like that?” I’ve met him many times at this point, and he is just genuinely, he’s like one of those guys who’s just from an older, better generation.

这镇上谁敢这么说话？”我在这一点上见过他很多次，他真的很像那些来自更老、更优秀的一代的人。

He’s the sweetest guy, but he’s not a pushover.

他是最可爱的人，但他不是一个容易屈服的人。

He was a tough guy in his day, and he was an athlete and he was in the Air Force and is married to the same woman for I think over 60 years at this point, has a big beautiful family.

他在那个时代是个硬汉，他是一名运动员，曾在空军服役，并且与同一个女人结婚，我想现在已经有 60 多年了，他有一个美丽的大家庭。

He was a country doctor.

他是一名乡村医生。

He was a baby doctor who delivered thousands of babies.

他是一名婴儿医生，接生了数千名婴儿。

He’s like this kind of classic American figure.

他就像这种典型的美国人物。

And I just think at the risk of falling into hero worship or something like that, I do think he’s a genuinely great man, and I think great men are to be revered.

我只是认为，冒着陷入英雄崇拜之类的风险，我确实认为他是一个真正的伟人，而且我认为伟人应该受到尊敬。

Yeah, as you said, there’s integrity there.

是的，正如你所说，那里有诚信。

06:10 Can you speak to the ideas that Ron Paul represents?

您能谈谈罗恩·保罗所代表的想法吗？

He says some of the things he’s been right about.

他说了一些他认为是正确的事情。

Maybe can you speak about the economics, the Fed, and maybe war and being anti-military intervention?

也许你能谈谈经济、美联储，也许还有战争和反军事干预？

Well, I think it all came from the same central thesis, which is that the highest political value ought to be liberty.

嗯，我认为这一切都来自同一个中心论点，那就是最高的政治价值应该是自由。

06:23 And that the government, by its very nature, is an instrument of force and tyranny.

就其本质而言，政府是武力和暴政的工具。

And therefore, the more government you have, the less liberty you have.

因此，政府越多，自由就越少。

I think he was way ahead of his time in really calling out the corruption in DC and I think that’s one of the things, it’s a common through line between the Federal Reserve and government spending, and of course this crazy war industry that our country has.

我认为他在真正揭露华盛顿的腐败方面远远领先于他的时代，我认为这是其中之一，这是美联储和政府支出之间的共同点，当然还有我们国家拥有的疯狂的军工工业。

So there’s a lot of components to that.

所以这有很多组成部分。

But essentially Ron Paul was talking about draining the swamp way before it was this dominate mass message.

但本质上罗恩·保罗在这占主导地位的大众信息之前就在谈论排干沼泽地。

And I think Ron Paul in many ways he laid the groundwork in his 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

我认为罗恩·保罗在很多方面为 2008 年和 2012 年的总统竞选奠定了基础。

Not saying that he leads to Donald Trump, but he laid the groundwork for Donald Trump to be able to get up at the South Carolina Republican primary debate and look at Jeb Bush and say, “Your brother lied us into war.”

并不是说他导致了唐纳德·特朗普，但他为唐纳德·特朗普能够在南卡罗来纳州共和党初选辩论中站起来看着杰布·布什说：“你的兄弟欺骗了我们进入战争奠定了基础。”

07:43 You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思？

And to have the Republicans agree with him.

并让共和党人同意他的观点。

These were a lot of the same people who had voted for George W.

这些人中有很多人曾经投票给乔治·W·布什。

Bush twice and supported the war and even mocked their liberal fellow countrymen for not being on board with it.

布什两次支持战争，甚至嘲笑他们的自由派同胞不参与战争。

And a lot of that was the work that Ron Paul did and people waking up to how messed up all these wars were.

其中很多都是罗恩·保罗所做的工作，人们开始意识到所有这些战争是多么混乱。

And I think that at least there were a couple of major things for me at the time.

我认为当时对我来说至少有几件重要的事情。

So I was a young man when I first found Ron Paul, it was in 2007 was when I first saw him, and then started obsessively reading all of his books.

所以，当我第一次找到罗恩·保罗时，我还是个年轻人，那是在 2007 年，我第一次见到他，然后开始着迷地阅读他所有的书。

So I was young, born in ’83.

所以我还年轻，出生于83年。

So what did that mean?

那么这是什么意思呢？

23, 24 when I first met him.

23、24号是我第一次见到他的时候。

So I was a young guy, and at least for me at the time, there were two categories in my naive mind where, okay, there were the liberals who supported big government at home, but were skeptical about big government abroad or they’re skeptical about wars.

所以我是一个年轻人，至少对当时的我来说，我天真的头脑中有两类人，好吧，自由主义者在国内支持大政府，但对国外的大政府持怀疑态度，或者他们对战争持怀疑态度。

08:49 And then there were the conservatives who said that they supported small government, limited government at home, but were always on the side of whatever the next war is.

还有一些保守派人士表示，他们支持小政府、国内有限政府，但无论下一场战争是什么，他们总是站在一边。

And at least for me, and I think for a lot of people of my generation, Ron Paul was the first guy who came along and said, no, I’m for limited government here and abroad.

至少对我来说，我认为对我这一代的很多人来说，罗恩·保罗是第一个站出来说“不，我支持国内外实行有限政府”的人。

And it was kind of like a portal where you could access a different perspective on the world.

它有点像一个门户，您可以从其中访问世界的不同视角。

And then once you saw that, you were like, “Wait, that’s actually what makes sense.” What is it exactly that all the Ronald Reagan and George W.

当你看到这一点时，你会想，“等等，这实际上是有道理的。”罗纳德·里根 (Ronald Reagan) 和乔治·W·布什 (George W.

Bush, and even Milton Friedman and guys like that, and Thomas Sowell, and it’s like you want a constitutionally limited world empire?

Bush，甚至米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）之类的人，还有托马斯·索威尔（Thomas Sowell），你想要一个受宪法限制的世界帝国吗？

That’s what you guys stand for, because that doesn’t fit together at all.

这就是你们所主张的，因为这根本不适合在一起。

And so why is it that we were taking this as a given?

那么为什么我们认为这是理所当然的呢？

09:38 And then of course, the more you look into it, you realize that, okay, those two things do make sense together.

当然，你越深入地研究它，你就会意识到，好吧，这两件事在一起确实有意义。

And then also that in the initial wave of the original progressives, people like Woodrow Wilson or FDR, these were people who were pushing big government at home and big government abroad.

然后，在最初的进步派浪潮中，像伍德罗·威尔逊或罗斯福这样的人，这些人在国内推动大政府，在国外推动大政府。

And that actually made much more sense as a cohesive worldview.

作为一种有凝聚力的世界观，这实际上更有意义。

And to oppose that would be the Ron Paul worldview.

反对这一点的是罗恩·保罗的世界观。

And then the other thing for me, and this was my introduction to Ron Paul, and this too, to me was kind of a portal in a way.

然后对我来说另一件事是我对罗恩·保罗的介绍，这对我来说在某种程度上也是一个门户。

At least in my naive, not fully functioned brain or fully developed brain at 24 years old or whatever, it was a way for me to get, I tapped into something that was outside the empire, and I had heard a lot.

至少在我天真的、功能不全的大脑或24岁或其他什么时候完全发育的大脑中，这是我获得、接触帝国之外的东西的一种方式，并且我听到了很多。

10:31 I was already against George W.

我已经反对乔治·W·布什了。

Bush, and I didn’t like the war.

布什，我不喜欢战争。

I had already figured out, I think this war in Iraq is bullshit.

我已经想通了，我认为这场伊拉克战争是胡说八道。

And I think that we were lied into it.

我认为我们被骗了。

And so I kind of got that.

所以我有点明白了。

And then there were liberals and left-wingers who I knew.

然后还有我认识的自由主义者和左翼分子。

I grew up in New York City, so I was very familiar with the left-wing perspective who are critical of George W.

我在纽约长大，所以我非常熟悉批评乔治·W·布什的左翼观点。

Bush for fighting the war and signing the Patriot Act into law and things like that.

布什参加了战争并将爱国者法案签署为法律等等。

But I had never really heard anybody break it down the way Ron Paul did when he basically was like, “Look, there’s a reason why these terrorists hate us, and it’s not what they’re telling you.

但我从来没有真正听到有人像罗恩·保罗那样分解它，他基本上是这样的，“看，这些恐怖分子仇恨我们是有原因的，但这不是他们告诉你的。

They don’t hate us for our freedom.” I remember the way Pat Buchanan put it, which I always loved, he said, “Dick Cheney makes it sound like Osama bin Laden stumbled in the deserts of Afghanistan.

他们并不是因为我们的自由而恨我们。”我记得帕特·布坎南（Pat Buchanan）的说法，我一直很喜欢，他说，“迪克·切尼（Dick Cheney）听起来就像奥萨马·本·拉登（Osama bin Laden）在阿富汗沙漠中绊倒一样。

He stumbled onto a copy of our Bill of Rights somewhere.”

他在某个地方偶然发现了我们的《权利法案》的副本。”

11:27 And he was like, “Oh my God, they’re free.

他说：“天啊，它们是免费的。

Look at this speedy trial.

看看这个快速的审判。

Are you kidding me?

你在开玩笑吗？

What is going on here?

这是怎么回事？

They can own guns and their women can wear mini skirts.” And that just made people so angry that they were ready to suicide bomb themselves.

他们可以拥有枪支，他们的女人可以穿迷你裙。”这让人们非常愤怒，他们准备自杀式炸弹袭击自己。

That makes no sense at all.

这完全没有意义。

And then Ron Paul was just like, “No, look, here’s the thing.

然后罗恩·保罗就说：“不，看，事情就是这样。

If we think we can just go around the world killing people, propping up dictatorships, putting our military bases in the Muslims holy land and not engender hatred from that, then we do that at our own peril.” And I thought it was such an interesting kind of…

如果我们认为我们可以在世界各地杀人、支持独裁统治、在穆斯林圣地建立军事基地而不因此产生仇恨，那么我们这样做就会自担风险。”我认为这是一种非常有趣的……

it had always been, I’m an ’80s and ’90s kid, and to me it was always a given that America’s number one we’re the force for good in the world.

一直以来，我都是一个 80 年代和 90 年代的孩子，对我来说，美国始终是世界第一，我们是世界上行善的力量。

12:15 And it was an interesting introduction to the idea that there are people outside of that who are dominated by that who don’t care for it very much.

这是对这个想法的一个有趣的介绍，即在这个世界之外，还有一些人被那些不太关心它的人所统治。

And that’s what 9/11 was actually about.

这就是 9/11 的实际意义。

And for me, I was living in New York City, I was 18, I think when 9/11 happened, and that was the moment of my childhood.

对我来说，我住在纽约市，我 18 岁，我想当 9/11 发生时，那是我童年的时刻。

It was a huge thing to live through.

这是一件需要经历的大事。

I mean, we were attacked.

我的意思是，我们遭到了袭击。

This seemed like something that could only happen in a history book.

这看起来就像是历史书上才会发生的事情。

That didn’t happen to America in the ’90s.

上世纪 90 年代的美国并没有发生这种情况。

2001 was basically the ’90s, and it was just like, “Oh.” Finally, it clicked.

2001 年基本上是 90 年代，当时的感觉就是“哦”。最后，它点击了。

It was like, “That makes sense.” It’s the first time I had ever heard an explanation and an understanding of this whole thing that we’re involved in now from 9/11 to the terror wars that actually just made perfect sense.

就像，“这是有道理的。”这是我第一次听到对我们现在卷入的从 9/11 到恐怖战争的整个事件的解释和理解，这实际上是完全有道理的。

Yeah, we should also say that there’s some degree of truth that the battle is not just militaristic, it’s also cultural.

是的，我们还应该说，在某种程度上，这场战斗不仅是军国主义的，也是文化的。

13:04 And then many of those parts of the world don’t want other people’s values forced onto them.

世界上许多地方不希望别人的价值观强加给他们。

Right.

正确的。

13:21 But the way that George W.

但乔治·W.

Bush and Dick Cheney and every right wing host in America, and Sean Hannity and Bill O’Reilly and everybody, what they were saying is that they hate that we are free, whereas it was much closer to saying they don’t like us imposing on them.

布什和迪克·切尼以及美国的每一位右翼主持人，还有肖恩·汉尼蒂和比尔·奥莱利以及所有人，他们所说的是他们讨厌我们的自由，而更接近于说他们不喜欢我们强加于他们。

Even like all the hardcore neocons, Brett Stevens, The New York Times, he wrote this piece on the 20th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, so 2023 to cheer lead the war in Iraq.

甚至像《纽约时报》所有铁杆新保守派布雷特·史蒂文斯一样，他在入侵伊拉克 20 周年之际写了这篇文章，为 2023 年领导伊拉克战争喝彩。

And he goes through the whole piece, and there’s not one mention of the million people who died in the war.

他通读了整篇文章，没有提到在战争中丧生的数百万人。

He literally just goes, the piece is just, measure life under Saddam Hussein verse life, were under the Shiite parliamentary system that they have now.

他真的只是说，这篇文章是公正的，衡量萨达姆·侯赛因诗句下的生活，以及他们现在拥有的什叶派议会制度下的生活。

Which one’s better?

哪个更好？

And he’s arguing this one’s better, therefore it was worth it.

他认为这个更好，因此值得。

But there’s no mention.

但没有提及。

14:12 It’s like, “Okay, but what about the 20 plus million people who were displaced?

就像是，“好吧，但是那 20 多万流离失所的人呢？

What about the million people who were killed?

那被杀的一百万人呢？

What about all the millions of people who were injured?

那么数以百万计的受伤者呢？

What about the tens of thousands of our soldiers who have blown their brains out in the aftermath of the thing?” So many times it is true with government policy in general, people talk about the end result that they want, but you’re like, “Yeah, but what about the process by which you get there and how much hatred, could you…” It’s, not that hard for me to put myself in other people’s shoes, and I have two little kids and a wife, and if anybody were to ever try to argue to me that they have to be the eggs that get broken to make some bigger omelet.

那我们数以万计的士兵在事件发生后被炸得脑浆都碎了怎么办？”很多时候，政府政策确实如此，人们谈论他们想要的最终结果，但你会说，“是的，但是你到达那里的过程怎么样，有多少仇恨，你能……”对我来说，设身处地为别人着想并不难，我有两个小孩和一个妻子，如果有人试图和我争论，他们必须是破碎的鸡蛋才能做出更大的煎蛋卷。

Like, “It is okay, we’re ultimately going to impose something on your society that’s better than what you have right there.

就像，“没关系，我们最终会向你们的社会强加一些比你们现有的更好的东西。

It sure does suck that your wife and kids got to be the one who get taken out.”

你的妻子和孩子被带走，这确实很糟糕。”

15:03 I mean, as I’m just saying this to myself, and this is not real.

我的意思是，因为我只是对自己说这句话，但这不是真的。

This is just a thought experiment I’m making up.

这只是我正在编造的一个思想实验。

I’m already pretty close to being a terrorist.

我已经非常接近成为一名恐怖分子了。

My next thought is kind of like, “Well, okay, well, I hope you’re going to like it when you watch your family die in front of you.” Hopefully, even if that happened to me, I wouldn’t go kill that guy’s family.

我的下一个想法是，“好吧，好吧，好吧，我希望当你看到你的家人死在你面前时你会喜欢它。”希望即使这种事发生在我身上，我也不会去杀掉那家伙的家人。

Maybe I’d just go after him or something.

也许我会去追他什么的。

But I could understand, and I think most people who have kids could understand going to a level of the most evil dark place you could imagine if anyone ever threatened or actually did something to your kids.

但我可以理解，而且我认为大多数有孩子的人都可以理解，如果有人威胁或实际上对你的孩子做了什么，你就会陷入你能想象到的最邪恶的黑暗地方。

Yeah, we’ll have to remember the thing that’s difficult to measure that you just mentioned, which is the hate that’s created by every bomb that’s dropped.

是的，我们必须记住你刚才提到的难以衡量的事情，那就是每一枚炸弹所投下的仇恨。

It was a General McChrystal who was the general running the war in Afghanistan.

指挥阿富汗战争的是麦克里斯特尔将军。

15:50 He wasn’t Ron Paul, you know what I mean?

他不是罗恩·保罗，你明白我的意思吗？

He was a, “Sir, yes, sir.

他是：“先生，是的，先生。

How do we fight and win this war general?” And he’s the one who coined the term insurgent math, that 10 minus two equals 20.

我们如何战斗并赢得这位战争将军？”他创造了“叛逆数学”一词，即 10 减 2 等于 20。

It’s like the more you keep, I was re-reading about this the other day because of the Trump’s been bombing the Houthis in Yemen.

就像你保留的越多，前几天我又重新读到了这篇文章，因为特朗普一直在轰炸也门胡塞武装。

And I think it was at least in 2009 is when Obama really stepped up the drone campaign with the then secret drone bombing campaign.

我认为至少在 2009 年，奥巴马才真正加强了无人机行动，并进行了当时秘密的无人机轰炸行动。

And Yemen was one of the major theaters.

也门是主要战场之一。

And even back then when it really was just a…

即使在那时，它真的只是一个……

it was a war on terrorism.

这是一场反恐战争。

The main targets were always Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and their presence in Yemen, even then, so before the Saudis invaded.

主要目标始终是阿拉伯半岛的基地组织及其在也门的存在，即使在那时，也是在沙特入侵之前。

16:47 So from 2009 through 2015, AQAP just kept growing.

因此，从 2009 年到 2015 年，AQAP 一直在增长。

It was doing all these targeted bombing campaigns, so they call them targeted.

它正在进行所有这些有针对性的轰炸活动，所以他们称其为有针对性的。

96% of the people are innocent who get killed, but they call them targeted drone bombings.

96%的人被杀是无辜的，但他们称之为有针对性的无人机爆炸。

And Al-Qaeda and the Arabian Peninsula just kept getting bigger and bigger because every time you go in there, it’s like, okay, you took out one target and then you took out three little girls.

基地组织和阿拉伯半岛变得越来越大，因为每次你进入那里，就像，好吧，你干掉了一个目标，然后又干掉了三个小女孩。

And every one of those little girls had brothers and uncles and fathers, and all of them just signed up to join the fight now.

每个小女孩都有兄弟、叔叔和父亲，他们现在都刚刚报名参加战斗。

Ron Paul was the first one who really made this click for me.

罗恩·保罗是第一个真正为我做出这种点击的人。

But it’s in a way, and I’m not a leftist, I’m not an egalitarian, I’m not a cultural relativist.

但在某种程度上，我不是左派，我不是平等主义者，我不是文化相对主义者。

I’m not saying that all cultures are the same or that we all look at the world the same way.

我并不是说所有文化都是一样的，或者我们都以同样的方式看待世界。

17:38 There’s enormous differences between all of us, and I personally think some are better than others, but there are things that unite all of us.

我们所有人之间存在着巨大的差异，我个人认为有些人比其他人更好，但有些事情将我们所有人团结在一起。

And in a weird way, I remember one time I was arguing with a Democrat guy on a S.

奇怪的是，我记得有一次我在 S 上与一位民主党人争论。

E.

E.

Cupp show.

库普秀。

I used to be a contributor on her show, and we were arguing, and it was after a terrorist attack here in New York, a fairly minor one.

我曾经是她节目的撰稿人，我们在争论，那是在纽约发生恐怖袭击之后，那是一次相当轻微的袭击。

It was a guy, I think he hit someone with his car and then jumped out with a gun, and then the cops lit him up and killed him.

那是一个人，我想他用车撞了一个人，然后拿着枪跳了出来，然后警察点燃了他并杀死了他。

This is back in 2017, I think, and he claimed to be ISIS inspired.

我想这已经是 2017 年的事了，他声称自己受到了 ISIS 的启发。

I don’t remember if there was a direct connection or not, but at the time, they were like, “Doesn’t this mean we got to step up the war in Iraq or in Syria where ISIS’s stronghold is.”

我不记得是否有直接联系，但当时他们的反应是，“这不是意味着我们必须加强在伊斯兰国大本营所在的伊拉克或叙利亚的战争吗？”

18:23 And I remember the guy saying to me, I went off on how these wars have been disaster and he goes, ” Yeah, but Dave, what you’re saying here is we’re supposed to do nothing.

我记得那个人对我说，我继续说这些战争是一场灾难，他说：“是的，但是戴夫，你在这里说的是我们应该什么都不做。

This just happened and now we’re supposed to do nothing.” And so even though this guy had a suit and tie on, and we’re in a cable news studio and we’re in a first world country, we’re in the United States of America and we’re having that.

这件事刚刚发生了，现在我们应该什么都不做。”因此，即使这个人穿着西装打着领带，我们在有线电视新闻演播室，我们在第一世界国家，我们在美利坚合众国，我们正在经历这样的事情。

The basic thing that he’s saying is, “You’re saying, we’re not going to go kill some motherfuckers.” I mean, he was just putting it as do something.

他所说的基本内容是，“你是说，我们不会去杀一些混蛋。”我的意思是，他只是把它当作做某事。

But what’s something?

但有什么东西呢？

Something is dropping bombs on human beings when yes, some innocent people are going to die, but it’s the same thing.

有些东西正在向人类投掷炸弹，是的，一些无辜的人会死去，但这是同一件事。

It’s the same after 9/11.

9/11之后也是如此。

We’re like, “We got to go fucking invade some countries right now.” That’s the same impulse.

我们就像，“我们现在必须他妈的入侵一些国家。”这也是同样的冲动。

19:07 It’s like they killed some of our people.

就像他们杀了我们的一些人一样。

You think we’re not going to show them who the real killers are.

你认为我们不会向他们展示谁是真正的凶手。

You think there’s a chance that you could come here?

你觉得你有机会来这里吗？

And that is the most human instinct ever.

这是有史以来最人类的本能。

It’s like some other tribe just came in here and killed some people in our tribe.

就像其他部落刚刚来到这里并杀死了我们部落中的一些人一样。

So what do you want to do about that?

那么你想对此做什么呢？

Well, I don’t know.

好吧，我不知道。

It’s not going to take me too long to figure out we’re going to go kill a bunch of people in their tribe.

我很快就会明白我们要去杀掉他们部落里的一群人。

And I think that’s the major motivating factor for both sides of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

我认为这是以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突双方的主要推动因素。

I think that’s the major motivator for both sides of the war on terror conflict.

我认为这是反恐战争冲突双方的主要动机。

In a way, when you look at it like that, even though it’s so dark and tragic, there’s something almost beautiful about it where you’re like, “Oh, we’re all caught in this same cycle.”

在某种程度上，当你这样看待它时，尽管它是如此黑暗和悲惨，但它有一种近乎美丽的东西，你会想，“哦，我们都陷入了同一个循环。”

Yeah, it’s deeply human, the warring between tribes, but especially in the recent years.

是的，这是深刻的人性，部落之间的战争，但尤其是在最近几年。

19:51 But more and more through human history, there’s almost like a third party, which is this military industrial complex, which is making money from the two tribes.

但在人类历史上，越来越多地出现了一个第三方，那就是这个军事工业综合体，它从两个部落那里赚钱。

So if you just have two tribes, one, I’ve been reading a lot about Genghis Khan, and this is why Genghis Khan banned this.

所以，如果你只有两个部落，一个，我读了很多关于成吉思汗的文章，这就是成吉思汗禁止这一点的原因。

It was very common in Mongolia before Genghis Khan to steal people’s wives, like, “You’re my wife now.” And he realized that that creates a lot of conflict.

在成吉思汗之前的蒙古，抢别人的妻子是很常见的，比如“你现在是我的妻子了”。他意识到这会造成很多冲突。

Yeah, it sure does.

是的，确实如此。

That seems natural and human, that kind of conflict.

这种冲突看起来很自然，也很人性化。

20:27 But whenever a third party rolls in and starts making money on the whole thing and then driving that forward, then the escalation of the conflict comes with this whole machine that makes de-escalation really difficult.

但每当第三方介入并开始在整个事情上赚钱，然后推动事情向前发展时，冲突就会随之升级，这使得缓和局势变得非常困难。

Yeah.

是的。

20:43 The military industrial complex in America, it’s so big and it’s so sophisticated.

美国的军工综合体太大了，也太复杂了。

There’s the intelligence agencies, there’s the weapons manufacturers, then there’s the people in the media who are either directly or indirectly just parroting, you know what I mean?

有情报机构，有武器制造商，还有媒体人士，他们直接或间接地鹦鹉学舌，你知道我的意思吗？

All of their talking points.

他们所有的谈话要点。

And so it’s not just that you can make money when there’s a conflict, but you have this entire apparatus to create the conflict and then create the public sentiment for that.

因此，当发生冲突时，你不仅可以赚钱，而且你拥有整个装置来制造冲突，然后为此创造公众情绪。

And it’s interesting, we’re an interesting place because we’re in this new frontier of now where shows like this can happen, and there’s a lot of them, and a lot of them are humongous like yours, but for so long this just didn’t exist.

有趣的是，我们是一个有趣的地方，因为我们处于现在的新领域，这样的节目可能会发生，而且有很多这样的节目，其中很多都像你们的那样巨大，但长期以来这种节目并不存在。

21:41 And it was just for so long it was the case that the New York Times and NBC and CBS and ABC and the Washington Post and the Associated Press, I guess they could just move the nation.

长期以来，《纽约时报》、全国广播公司、哥伦比亚广播公司、美国广播公司、华盛顿邮报和美联社都是如此，我想他们可以感动整个国家。

I mean, if they wanted to be like, “Hey.” Forget even after 9/11, the idea that in 1990, 1991, that there was any organic movement from the American people going, “We really got to see about this Saddam Hussein guy.” The dictator in Iraq is having a slant drilling dispute with the Emir of Kuwait.

我的意思是，如果他们想说“嘿”。即使在 9/11 事件之后，也请忘记 1990 年、1991 年美国人民发起的有机运动，“我们真的要看看这个萨达姆·侯赛因这个家伙。”伊拉克独裁者正在与科威特埃米尔发生倾斜钻探争端。

We really got to do something about that.

我们确实必须为此做点什么。

That is not something that organically came from any…

这不是有机地来自任何……的东西。

that was not a few soccer moms hanging out watching their kids’ game being like, “I think in a couple of years we’re going to have to send these boys over to Iraq.”

不少足球妈妈在闲逛观看孩子们的比赛时会说，“我想几年后我们将不得不把这些男孩送到伊拉克。”

22:36 They just, from the top down, were able to create this feeling that like, “Hey, there’s a new Adolf Hitler on the rise over here in Iraq.

他们只是从上到下创造了这样一种感觉，“嘿，伊拉克这里正在崛起一个新的阿道夫·希特勒。

We got to go see about this.

我们得去看看这件事。

There are these poor people in Kuwait, we have to do that.” They were able to create this desire for war.

科威特有这些穷人，我们必须这样做。”他们能够创造这种对战争的渴望。

It’s really incredible when you think about it, because I think for the most part in human history, you would’ve had to have some type of plausible threat, some type of plausible reality to convince people that we actually have to go to war in order to deal with this.

当你想到这一点时，这真的令人难以置信，因为我认为在人类历史的大部分时间里，你必须有某种合理的威胁，某种合理的现实来说服人们我们实际上必须发动战争才能解决这个问题。

Whereas the idea that in 1991, the United States of America would feel threatened by Iraq was just ridiculous.

而在 1991 年，美利坚合众国会感受到伊拉克威胁的想法简直是荒谬的。

And yet they were able to do it.

但他们还是做到了。

Well, so to push back a little bit throughout human history, there was also a thing, you look at the Roman Empire where just the culture of values were different where military conquest was seen as a good thing.

好吧，回顾一下人类历史，还有一件事，你看看罗马帝国，那里的价值观文化不同，军事征服被视为一件好事。

23:26 So we just almost assume in the United States war has been framed in the defensive sense where offensive war we’re not doing that anymore.

因此，我们几乎假设在美国，战争是在防御意义上进行的，而在进攻战争中我们不再这样做了。

You make a fair point.

你说得有道理。

23:49 It’s certainly true that throughout human history, there’s been overt empire building and wars of conquest and things like that.

毫无疑问，在整个人类历史上，确实存在过公开的帝国建设和征服战争等等。

But I guess I’m just saying at least even there, you would have some type of sell of why we’re going to go take these resources and why that will be good for us.

但我想我只是说，至少即使在那里，你也会有某种类型的销售，说明为什么我们要获取这些资源以及为什么这对我们有好处。

Whereas the idea that Kuwait just needed to be defended by the Americans seems so, it seems so hard to convince anybody, and yet they were able to do it.

尽管科威特只需要美国人来保卫的想法似乎如此，但似乎很难说服任何人，但他们却做到了。

If you read Neocon writing in the ’90s, it was very interesting because they would tell the truth a lot more.

如果你读过 20 世纪 90 年代新保守派的作品，你会发现它非常有趣，因为他们会说更多的实话。

Essentially, I think there was the Soviet Union had just collapsed.

本质上，我认为苏联刚刚解体。

24:39 It was what Charles Krauthammer dubbed the unipolar moment.

这就是查尔斯·克劳萨默所说的单极时刻。

There was excitement, there was a feeling of invincibility.

有一种兴奋，有一种所向无敌的感觉。

And also the Neocons weren’t in power after ’92 really.

而且新保守派在 92 年之后就不再掌权了。

I mean, they were in the George H.W.

我的意思是，他们在乔治·H·W·布什 (George H.W.

Bush administration, but after ’92, they really weren’t.

布什政府，但92年之后，他们真的不是了。

So they’re just writing at these think tanks, and it just didn’t seem as…

所以他们只是在这些智囊团写文章，而且看起来并不……

they weren’t as guarded.

他们没有那么戒备。

There weren’t these accusations of Euro war criminal or something like that.

没有对欧洲战犯或类似指控的指控。

But what he said, what Jonah Goldberg agreed with, I think the statement was every 10 years or so, America’s got to find a puny little country and put them up against the wall just to let the rest of the world know that we mean business.

但他所说的，乔纳·戈德堡同意的，我认为每隔十年左右就会有这样的声明，美国必须找到一个微不足道的小国家，把它们放在墙上，只是为了让世界其他国家知道我们是认真的。

And that was actually their mentality.

这实际上就是他们的心态。

I’m sure there’s people that agree with that.

我确信有人同意这一点。

25:22 I happen to disagree with that.

我碰巧不同意这一点。

But the drums of war are beating a little bit over Taiwan and China.

但战鼓已经在台湾和中国大陆上敲响了。

More than a little bit.

不止一点点。

But I can’t even see a justification of a just war.

但我什至看不到正义战争的合理性。

25:31 What is the long-term benefit to society if you do military intervention?

如果进行军事干预，对社会的长期利益是什么？

Well, I also think, and I’ve been saying this for a while, but I do think there’s this empire mentality that Americans have got to shake off.

嗯，我也认为，我已经这么说了有一段时间了，但我确实认为美国人必须摆脱这种帝国心态。

25:39 As if it’s even a question of whether we should allow it or not.

好像这甚至是我们是否应该允许的问题。

Are we in a position to allow or not allow that?

我们是否可以允许或不允许这种情况发生？

I hope China doesn’t invade Taiwan.

我希望中国不要侵略台湾。

I hope Taiwan remains as free as possible.

我希望台湾保持尽可能的自由。

I hope China becomes free.

我希望中国变得自由。

I root for freedom and prosperity for everyone, but I also root for everybody to have a healthy marriage.

我支持每个人的自由和繁荣，但我也支持每个人拥有健康的婚姻。

But if you were talking to me and you were like, “Hey, the guy down the street is cheating on his wife, I don’t think we can allow this.” I’d immediately be like, “That’s really not my place.

但如果你跟我说话，你会说，“嘿，街上那个家伙正在欺骗他的妻子，我认为我们不能允许这种情况发生。”我会立即说：“那真的不是我的位置。

And then on top of that, I also have no authority over what they do in their marriage.” I have to be concerned with my marriage.

最重要的是，我也无权决定他们在婚姻中做什么。”我必须关心我的婚姻。

26:35 And the idea that imagine if there were the political will to invade Mexico.

想象一下如果有入侵墨西哥的政治意愿。

If DC decided we’re taking Mexico City, that’s going to be part of America now, and we’re taking it by force.

如果华盛顿决定占领墨西哥城，那它现在将成为美国的一部分，而我们将通过武力占领它。

And then China was like, “We’re not sure if we can allow this.” I think immediately most Americans would be like, “Allow?

然后中国就说，“我们不确定是否可以允许这种情况发生。”我想大多数美国人立刻就会说：“允许吗？

How the fuck do you think you are going to stop us from taking Mexico City?

你他妈的认为你怎么能阻止我们占领墨西哥城？

What are you going to do China?

你要去中国做什么？

You’re going to send your Navy ships over here to fight us off the coast of Mexico.

你们将派你们的海军舰艇到这里来，在墨西哥海岸与我们作战。

Good luck with that.” And at least from my understanding in almost all the war games that they’ve run, even if it doesn’t come to nuclear weapons being used, in which case the whole world gets blown up.

祝你好运。”至少从我对他们举办的几乎所有战争游戏的理解来看，即使没有使用核武器，在这种情况下整个世界都会被炸毁。

But even if we go to militarily try to stop China from invading Taiwan and everyone agrees to not use nukes, and we just fight a conventional war, we lose that war every time.

但即使我们在军事上试图阻止中国入侵台湾，并且每个人都同意不使用核武器，而我们只是打一场常规战争，我们每次都会输掉那场战争。

I think what you said applies to a lot of the wars we’ve been involved in, but China and Taiwan is a little bit different because of TSMC, right?

我认为你所说的适用于我们参与过的很多战争，但中国和台湾因为台积电的缘故有点不同，对吧？

27:35 Because there’s an economic dependence.

因为有经济依赖性。

If that was the concern, then the response would be, “We need some type of Manhattan Project.” And I’m not supporting a government project here, but there would be, “We need some type of Manhattan Project to say, ‘We are going to make these things here.'” And look, I was running that experiment before saying, ” What if we all pinky promise not to use nuclear weapons or something like that?” But that’s not the reality of the situation.

如果这是问题所在，那么答案将是：“我们需要某种类型的曼哈顿计划。”我不支持这里的政府项目，但会有，“我们需要某种类型的曼哈顿计划来表明，‘我们将在这里制造这些东西。’”看，我在说“如果我们都承诺不使用核武器或类似的东西怎么办？”但事实并非如此。

27:45 Look, even in Ukraine, everybody, the biggest hawks, the biggest pushers of this policy, and Joe Biden’s policy to fund Ukraine, no one’s suggesting we send in the 82nd airborne, which is really the only thing that could repel the Russians right now and restore the original sovereignty of the Ukrainian borders.

你看，即使在乌克兰，每个人，最大的鹰派，这一政策的最大推动者，以及乔·拜登资助乌克兰的政策，没有人建议我们派遣第82空降兵，这确实是目前唯一能够击退俄罗斯人并恢复乌克兰边境原有主权的东西。

But no one’s suggesting we send in the 82nd airborne because we all know, well, we can’t have a direct war with Russia.

但没有人建议我们派遣第 82 空降师，因为我们都知道，我们不能与俄罗斯发生直接战争。

That’s the end of the world.

那就是世界末日。

And same thing with China.

中国也是如此。

So I’m not saying microchips or whatever aren’t important, but we can find other ways to…

所以我并不是说微芯片或其他什么不重要，但我们可以找到其他方法……

Taiwan is not magical.

台湾并不神奇。

We can produce these things in other places now.

我们现在可以在其他地方生产这些东西。

So you have the humility to say that you don’t really know much about the situation.

所以你谦虚地说你对情况了解不多。

28:48 It sounds ridiculous to say, but there’s something magical about not Taiwan, but TSMC.

听起来很可笑，但神奇的不是台湾，而是台积电。

Is incredibly difficult to manage the supply chain and manufacture at such a low cost that they are.

以如此低的成本管理供应链和制造是非常困难的。

And to add to that, China has been signaling about the one China policy, but you’re absolutely right that you shouldn’t be doing the Washington thing of beating the drums of war.

除此之外，中国一直在发出一个中国政策的信号，但你绝对正确，你不应该像华盛顿那样敲响战争的战鼓。

It’s like completely the counterproductive thing.

这完全是适得其反的事情。

You should actually try to find partnerships with China, build friendships and cooperation.

你实际上应该尝试与中国建立伙伴关系，建立友谊与合作。

India’s doing a good job of this, build friendships.

印度在建立友谊这方面做得很好。

This is the 21st century.

这是21世纪。

Conflict, this Cold War thinking is going to be destructive to the economy, destructive to humanity, to the flourishing of the individual nations of the world.

冲突，这种冷战思维将对经济、人类、世界各国的繁荣造成破坏。

There’s just nothing positive except making money for the military industry [inaudible 00:29:41]

除了为军事工业赚钱之外，没有什么积极的事情 [听不清 00:29:41]

Well, yeah, and it was totally destructive during the original Cold War too, and almost led to nuclear war on a couple of different occasions.

嗯，是的，它在最初的冷战期间也是完全破坏性的，并且在几个不同的场合几乎导致核战争。

29:40 But look, I would just say, and I really, I’m no defender of the Chinese regime.

但你看，我只是想说，我真的，我不是中国政权的捍卫者。

I hate communism or fascism, whatever they, are some hybrid mix of the two.

我讨厌共产主义或法西斯主义，无论它们是什么，都是两者的混合体。

They’re paying you, aren’t they?

他们付钱给你，不是吗？

Yeah, no, fuck them.

是的，不，操他们。

29:58 By the way, a lot of people speculate online, but I’m not getting any of these checks, man, and I’d really like them to start coming in.

顺便说一句，很多人在网上猜测，但我没有收到任何支票，伙计，我真的很希望他们开始进来。

But even when you say China’s asserting the one China policy, but the one China policy is the policy of the United States of America and has been for 50 years now.

但即使你说中国主张一个中国政策，但一个中国政策是美利坚合众国的政策，并且已经实行了50年。

So I think what’s happening there a lot of times is that essentially, even though officially the one China policy is the policy of the United States of America, all of these American politicians and different figureheads across powerful centers in America are saying that China doesn’t have the right to go into Taiwan.

所以我认为那里很多时候发生的事情本质上是，尽管官方上“一个中国的政策”是美利坚合众国的政策，但所有这些美国政客和美国强大中心的不同领导人都在说中国没有权利进入台湾。

And then China’s in the position of being like, “Well, hey, wait a minute.

然后中国的处境就是，“好吧，嘿，等一下。

No, that’s not actually the policy.

不，这实际上不是政策。

We maintain this one China policy, but we allow them to kind of do what they want to do.”

我们维持这一对华政策，但我们允许他们做他们想做的事。”

30:52 And the most obvious example of this was when Joe Biden actually said, ” Oh, we wouldn’t allow that and we would militarily intervene if they went into China.” And this was so bizarre, then the White House, whoever that was, came out to correct the President of the United States and say, “No, the policy of the White House is the one China policy.” Which look, I mean, again, I think the whole point of this is that the reason why whoever the hell was able to overrule Joe Biden and his administration, I don’t know who that is, but the whole point is that if you say, and this is why there is some wisdom in America accepting the one China policy is that if you tell China that we recognize Taiwan’s independence and that they’re not a part of China, that might be the type of thing that would make China invade and say, “No, we’re not accepting that.”

最明显的例子是乔·拜登实际上说：“哦，我们不会允许这种事发生，如果他们进入中国，我们将进行军事干预。”这太奇怪了，然后白宫，不管是谁，出来纠正美国总统说：“不，白宫的政策就是一个中国的政策。”看起来，我的意思是，我认为这件事的重点在于，无论是谁能够推翻乔·拜登和他的政府，我不知道那是谁，但重点是，如果你说，这就是为什么美国接受一个中国政策的一些智慧，那就是，如果你告诉中国，我们承认台湾独立，他们不是中国的一部分，这可能会让中国入侵并说，“不，我们不是中国”接受这一点。”

31:51 And so at least right now, it’s like, “Okay.” Look, this is the reality.

所以至少现在，就像是，“好吧。”看吧，这就是现实。

It’s something that you kind of run up against with the war in Ukraine a lot and with the situation in China and Taiwan is that there are constraints placed on us by reality.

这是你在乌克兰战争中经常遇到的事情，而在中国和台湾的局势中，现实对我们施加了限制。

It’s not all just how would you like the world to be?

这不只是你希望世界变成什么样子？

How would you like it to work?

您希望它如何工作？

Obviously, I think we would all like that bigger countries don’t invade smaller countries and bigger countries don’t bully smaller countries around.

显然，我认为我们都希望大国不侵略小国，大国不欺负周围的小国。

That is not the way of the world.

这不是世界的方式。

We are a big country that is the biggest bully in the world, so we’re in no position to let…

我们是一个大国，是世界上最大的恶霸，所以我们没有资格让……

but we’re kind of in the position is just you’re like, “Hey, we’d sure love if you don’t do that.

但我们的处境就是你会说，“嘿，如果你不这样做，我们肯定会喜欢的。

32:34 You can do it and you can get away with it, but we would sure love it if you don’t.” And so the goal would be to do everything we can to make sure that doesn’t happen.

你可以做到，也可以侥幸逃脱，但如果你不这样做，我们肯定会喜欢的。”因此，我们的目标是尽一切努力确保这种情况不会发生。

When Vladimir Putin starts talking about like, Hey, if you keep pushing the idea of Ukraine joining your military alliance, I’m going to invade that country.

当弗拉基米尔·普京开始说，嘿，如果你继续推动乌克兰加入你的军事联盟的想法，我就会入侵那个国家。

The goal there or the move there would be to be like, “Okay, we’ll stop talking about that.

那里的目标或那里的举动就像是，“好吧，我们不再谈论这个了。

Is there something else that we can agree on?” Is there a way that you will promise you won’t do anything to them and we’ll promise we won’t bring them in our military.

还有什么我们可以达成一致的吗？”有没有一种方法可以让你保证不会对他们做任何事，而我们也会保证不会把他们带入我们的军队。

That’s the goal.

这就是目标。

You don’t just go like, “No, fuck you, we’re doing it anyway,” over and over and over again until they do the thing.

你不能只是一遍又一遍地说：“不，操你妈的，我们无论如何都要这么做，”直到他们这么做为止。

I think we got to this discussion from the military industrial complex and military intervention, and Ron Paul, before that, if you could rewind a little bit.

我想我们是从军工综合体和军事干预开始讨论的，还有罗恩·保罗，在此之前，如果你可以倒回一点的话。

33:14 According to you, and according to various flavors of libertarianism, is there any amount of military intervention that’s justified?

根据您的观点，以及各种自由主义风格，是否有一定程度的军事干预是合理的？

That’s okay?

可以吗？

Well, I would say, at least to me, in terms of pure libertarian theory or just in terms of what I think is right or wrong, there is such thing as a just war.

好吧，我想说，至少对我来说，就纯粹的自由主义理论而言，或者就我认为是对还是错而言，存在正义战争这样的事情。

33:36 The most obvious example of that would be you’re invaded by a military and fighting them off.

最明显的例子就是你被军队入侵并击退他们。

So in that sense, also, even if you want to isolate from everything else-

所以从这个意义上说，即使你想与其他一切隔离——

34:00 If you want to isolate from everything else, from all of the awful U.S. policy toward Russia, post Soviet Union, to all of the NATO expansion and color coded revolutions and all of these things…

如果你想与其他一切隔离，从美国对俄罗斯、后苏联的所有可怕政策，到所有北约扩张和颜色编码革命以及所有这些事情……

If you want to…

如果你想……

Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine.

弗拉基米尔·普京入侵乌克兰。

I do think the Ukrainians have a right to fight and protect their land.

我确实认为乌克兰人有权战斗和保护他们的土地。

There’s an aggressor there, and you have a right to defend yourself.

那里有侵略者，你有权保护自己。

So certainly in that sense, I think the American Revolution was a just war.

所以从这个意义上说，我当然认为美国革命是一场正义的战争。

I think there can be just wars.

我认为可能会有正义的战争。

In terms of pure libertarian theory, I think I would say that, look, you never have a right to kill innocent people.

就纯粹的自由主义理论而言，我想我会说，看，你永远没有权利杀死无辜的人。

That’s never morally okay.

这在道德上从来都是不可接受的。

Now, there could be a scenario, just like this is true in life in general, right?

现在，可能会有一种情况，就像生活中的情况一样，对吧？

There’s lots of things that you don’t have the right to do, but you could come up with some scenario where you might be in a position where you have to do it because there were all of these extenuating circumstances.

有很多事情是你无权做的，但你可以想出一些场景，在这些场景中你可能不得不这样做，因为存在所有这些情有可原的情况。

35:07 You could think of something where…

你可以想出一些东西......

You remember the saw movies?

你还记得看过的电影吗？

Where they used these crazy horror scenarios, but it’s like, “Okay, so there’s a person, an evil bad guy has buried a key inside this person, and you have to kill that person in order to get the key, in order to unlock these 20 people to let them out of a cage.” Now, look, you still don’t have a right to kill people.

他们使用了这些疯狂的恐怖场景，但就像是，“好吧，有一个人，一个邪恶的坏人在这个人体内埋了一把钥匙，你必须杀死那个人才能拿到钥匙，才能解锁这 20 个人，让他们从笼子里出来。”现在，你看，你仍然没有权利杀人。

It’s horrible and wrong, and what you did there was still evil, but if you were taken to trial over it, you could probably explain to a judge and a jury be like, “I know, but the situation I was in was either these 20 people were going to die, or this one person was going to die, and under that situation, I chose to save the 20.” So in other words, by perfect theory, no, you never have the right to kill innocent people.

这是可怕的、错误的，你在那里所做的仍然是邪恶的，但如果你因此受到审判，你可能可以向法官和陪审团解释，“我知道，但我当时的情况是，要么这20个人要死，要么这个人要死，在这种情况下，我选择拯救这20个人。”换句话说，根据完美的理论，不，你永远没有权利杀死无辜的人。

35:55 There could be a scenario where you were like, “Look, we had to take this military action and some innocent people did die, and it’s so tragic and awful that we had to do this, but we are certain that many more people would’ve died had we not done this.” Now, in that case, I would look at that as number one, it’s much like killing the one person to save the 20.

可能会有一种情况，你会说，“看，我们不得不采取这种军事行动，一些无辜的人确实死了，我们不得不这样做，这是如此悲惨和可怕，但我们确信，如果我们不这样做，会有更多的人死去。”现在，在那种情况下，我会把它视为第一，这很像杀死一个人来拯救 20 个人。

It’s still wrong.

仍然是错误的。

It’s still an immoral thing that you were forced into doing.

这仍然是你被迫做的不道德的事情。

It’s not justified.

这是没有道理的。

I would say that the overwhelming onus should have to be on you to demonstrate that you absolutely needed to do that.

我想说的是，你应该承担压倒性的责任来证明你绝对需要这样做。

And that’s how I feel about all these wars.

这就是我对所有这些战争的感受。

It’s not like…

这不像……

I think that let’s just say if you could make World War II, you could reduce it down to the simplest caricature of what World War II is, and say there’s no Joseph Stalin.

我认为，如果你可以制作第二次世界大战，你可以将其简化为二战最简单的漫画，并说没有约瑟夫·斯大林。

We’re not even partnering with him.

我们甚至不与他合作。

There was a good guy in Russia who we were partnering with, and the British Empire had never done anything wrong.

我们正在与俄罗斯合作，大英帝国从来没有做过任何错事。

36:56 They were just nothing but good guys.

他们只不过是好人而已。

And of course, FDR is nothing but a good guy, and Hitler was even worse than the real Hitler, you know what I mean?

当然，罗斯福只是一个好人，而希特勒比真正的希特勒还要糟糕，你知道我的意思吗？

And in order to stop them, we had to go on this bombing campaign, and we only got Nazis.

为了阻止他们，我们必须继续进行轰炸行动，而我们只有纳粹分子。

We only killed the bad guys, and we were able to take out the Third Reich, but one eight-year-old girl died and you did this thing that stopped the whole world from falling into subjugation.

我们只杀了坏人，我们就能够消灭第三帝国，但是一个八岁的女孩死了，而你做了这件事，阻止了整个世界陷入征服。

So I think almost everybody would agree, “Jesus, man, you have to do that.

所以我想几乎每个人都会同意，“天啊，伙计，你必须这么做。

Okay, you have to do that because the whole world’s going to be subjugated.

好吧，你必须这样做，因为整个世界都会被征服。

There’s nothing but good guys here.

这里除了好人什么都没有。

The Nazis are so evil, and there’s one…”

纳粹太邪恶了，还有一个……”

37:30 I still would say that every single time World War II came up, we should all just be somber and we should all just think about that little eight-year-old girl who died and what a horrible thing it is that we had to do that.

我仍然想说，每次第二次世界大战爆发时，我们都应该保持忧郁，我们都应该想想那个死去的八岁小女孩，我们不得不这样做是多么可怕的事情。

And so when there are these campaigns where tens of millions of people are killed, the fact that anybody’s ever spiking the football or this like, “Rah-rah, we were the good ones.” And then also when you add in all those other complicated factors like…

因此，当这些活动导致数以千万计的人被杀时，事实上，任何人都会扣动足球，或者这样说：“哇哦，我们是好人。”然后当你添加所有其他复杂因素时，例如......

This wasn’t the scenario at all.

这根本不是场景。

So I guess essentially I’d say no, you don’t ever have a right to kill innocent people.

所以我想基本上我会说不，你没有权利杀死无辜的人。

It’s never self-defense to be killing innocent people.

杀害无辜者绝不是自卫。

I mean, short of some type of scenario where if you’re holding a baby and coming at me shooting and I shoot back at you, and, “Okay, I was acting in self-defense and it happened to kill a baby,” but I’m talking about the scenarios where you’re dropping bombs on cities, it’s never justified, and the overwhelming onus should be on you to demonstrate that you absolutely have to do it.

我的意思是，除非有某种场景，如果你抱着一个婴儿向我开枪，我向你开枪，然后，“好吧，我是在自卫，结果碰巧杀死了一个婴儿”，但我说的是你向城市投掷炸弹的场景，这是不合理的，你应该承担压倒性的责任来证明你绝对必须这样做。

38:35 And that should be the standard, because there’s so many other standards that I see thrown out that I just think make no moral sense at all.

这应该是标准，因为我看到有很多其他标准被抛弃了，我认为这些标准根本没有道德意义。

People will argue about in Gaza, they’ll argue about the civilian to combatant ratio, that to me doesn’t really…

人们会在加沙争论，他们会争论平民与战斗人员的比例，对我来说这并不是真的……

That’s not what counts.

这不重要。

That’s not the measure that’s important.

这不是重要的措施。

And also no one knows what the numbers are.

而且没有人知道这些数字是多少。

They’re all just pretend to.

他们都只是假装。

And then the other thing will be that people, as someone just recently argued with me about, they’ll say, “Well, Hamas has to go.

然后另一件事是人们，正如最近有人与我争论的那样，他们会说，“好吧，哈马斯必须下台。

That’s the starting point.

这就是起点。

Hamas has to go.” And I’m like, “No, I don’t think you get to say that, because the truth is that…”

哈马斯必须下台。”我想，“不，我认为你不能这么说，因为事实是……”

39:15 Look, you can make an argument that Hamas has to go, sure, you can make an argument that the Likudniks have to go.

看，你可以提出哈马斯必须下台的论点，当然，你可以提出利库德尼克集团必须下台的论点。

You can make an argument that Kim Jong Un has to go, or that G has to go, or that Putin has to go, or that Zelensky has to go, or certainly, I would make an argument that Joe Biden had to go, but just because a government has to go, that doesn’t mean you could just go kill all their people.

你可以说金正恩必须下台，或者G必须下台，或者普京必须下台，或者泽连斯基必须下台，或者当然，我会说乔·拜登必须下台，但仅仅因为一个政府必须下台，并不意味着你可以去杀死他们所有的人民。

Yeah.

是的。

39:33 This should not be the starting point, the assumption, the axiom of the discussion.

这不应该是讨论的出发点、假设、公理。

Yeah.

是的。

The question is it…

问题是……

39:39 Is there no other option than doing it this way?

除了这样做之外没有其他选择吗？

It’s like, okay, October 7th happened, we can all agree this was a horrific tragedy and an indefensible act of terrorism.

就好像，好吧，10 月 7 日发生了，我们都同意这是一场可怕的悲剧，也是无可辩解的恐怖主义行为。

Okay.

好的。

Is it guaranteed that another one of those is going to happen tomorrow, or was this the biggest security failure in Israeli history?

是否保证明天还会发生另一起类似事件，或者这是以色列历史上最大的安全失败？

Okay, well, if it’s the biggest security failure, let’s just say not even going down the inside job rabbit hole or anything like that, but just saying it’s a giant security failure, okay then put a bunch more men at that fence, first of all.

好吧，好吧，如果这是最大的安全失败，我们就说，甚至不要进入内部工作兔子洞或类似的东西，而只是说这是一个巨大的安全失败，好吧，那么首先在栅栏上放更多的人。

And now you got to talk about how can you achieve your goal while inflicting the minimum amount of devastation on innocent people.

现在你必须谈论如何实现你的目标，同时对无辜人民造成最小程度的破坏。

Let’s talk about it, since you brought it up.

既然你提出来了，我们就来谈谈吧。

40:22 October 7th.

10 月 7 日。

So what exactly do you think about the October 7th attack by Hamas on Israel.

那么您对 10 月 7 日哈马斯对以色列的袭击有何看法？

Well, I mean, what I just said that it was horrible, and by the same logic that I’m giving you now, it’s always evil to target innocent civilians.

好吧，我的意思是，我刚才说的是，这太可怕了，按照我现在给你们的同样的逻辑，以无辜平民为目标总是邪恶的。

40:33 I don’t believe civilians can be held responsible for the crimes of their government.

我不认为平民应对政府的罪行负责。

This was, by the way, the Osama bin Laden logic, which I think would also be the logic of Bill Clinton or George W.

顺便说一句，这是奥萨马·本·拉登的逻辑，我认为这也是比尔·克林顿或乔治·W·布什的逻辑。

Bush or Barack Obama.

布什或巴拉克·奥巴马。

But Osama bin Laden very explicitly said when he was asked, “Well, are you just going to target U.S. military sites or are you targeting U.S. civilians?” It was an interview in the ’90s before 9/11, and he goes, “No, civilians are fair game too because you guys have regular elections, and you guys vote for your government, and therefore you’re responsible for the crimes that they commit.” Now, I think that’s the logic of a fanatic like Osama bin Laden, and that’s not the logic that any of us should follow.

但当奥萨马·本·拉登被问到时，他非常明确地说：“好吧，你只是要针对美国军事基地还是针对美国平民？”这是 90 年代 9/11 之前的一次采访，他说，“不，平民也是公平的游戏对象，因为你们有定期选举，你们投票给你们的政府，因此你们要为他们犯下的罪行负责。”现在，我认为这是奥萨马·本·拉登这样的狂热分子的逻辑，而不是我们任何人都应该遵循的逻辑。

41:29 It doesn’t make any sense, and it’s not true that people are responsible for the crimes of their government.

这没有任何意义，人们也不应该为政府的罪行负责。

I think that that same argument is used quite a bit by people on the pro-Israeli side when they say like, “Oh, they had an election in 2005 and Hamas won a plurality, therefore, 20 years later, they have no rights.” I think that’s insane.

我认为亲以色列一方的人也经常使用同样的论点，他们会说，“哦，他们在 2005 年举行了一次选举，哈马斯赢得了多数席位，因此，20 年后，他们没有任何权利。”我认为这太疯狂了。

Okay, so Hamas had no right to go after civilians.

好吧，哈马斯无权追捕平民。

It’s horrible, and you see these teenagers being killed, and you see the images of people who were held hostage for all this time.

这太可怕了，你看到这些青少年被杀害，你看到一直被扣为人质的人们的照片。

So it’s like your heart breaks for those people.

所以这就像你为那些人而心碎。

It’s truly tragic.

这真是悲剧。

I do think that it was, in many ways, an indictment of so many different things.

我确实认为，从很多方面来说，这是对许多不同事物的控诉。

October 7th happening was an indictment of the entire occupation slash siege of Gaza and the West Bank for that matter.

10 月 7 日发生的事情是对整个加沙和约旦河西岸占领军的猛烈围攻的起诉。

It was, I think…

我认为是……

Should have probably forever destroyed the legacy of Benjamin Netanyahu, who is…

也许应该永远摧毁本杰明·内塔尼亚胡的遗产，他是……

I mean, this isn’t like George W.

我的意思是，这不像乔治·W·布什 (George W.

Bush was.

布什是。

42:52 I mean, he was on the job for almost a year when 9/11 happened, but he was still kind of new.

我的意思是，9/11 发生时他已经工作了将近一年，但他还是个新人。

It was still kind of in his first year of being president.

这仍然是他担任总统的第一年。

Benjamin Netanyahu was the longest serving prime minister in Israeli history, and had explicitly been like, “I’m the tough right-winger who’s going to be tough on these Palestinians, who’s going to move away from the idea of coming to a two state solution, because this is what we need to keep us safe.” The justification is like, “I’m going to be hard on these motherfuckers, because I know what it takes to keep us safe.”

本杰明·内塔尼亚胡是以色列历史上任职时间最长的总理，他明确表示，“我是一个强硬的右翼分子，我将对这些巴勒斯坦人采取强硬态度，我将放弃两国解决方案的想法，因为这是我们确保我们安全所需要的。”理由就像是，“我会对这些混蛋严厉，因为我知道怎样才能保证我们的安全。”

43:26 And that culminates in the worst massacre in Israeli history.

这最终导致了以色列历史上最严重的屠杀。

And then, I mean, the other big one is that I mean, and it’s not like a…

然后，我的意思是，另一个大问题是我的意思是，它不像……

I wouldn’t even say an open secret at this point.

在这一点上我什至不会说公开的秘密。

It’s just out in the open.

它只是公开的。

He had this strategy of propping up Hamas for years.

多年来，他一直采用这种支持哈马斯的策略。

And so he had this strategy of propping up Hamas for a myriad of reasons, but a major part of it was that, “Look, man, as long as there’s terrorists in power there, there’s never going to be any pressure on us to give the Palestinians a state, because look, are you telling me I got to negotiate with them?”

因此，他出于多种原因制定了支持哈马斯的战略，但其中一个主要部分是，“听着，伙计，只要那里有恐怖分子掌权，我们就永远不会受到任何压力，要求我们给巴勒斯坦人一个国家，因为听着，你是在告诉我我必须与他们谈判吗？”

He was allowing Qatar money to float.

他允许卡塔尔的资金自由流动。

Insisting that Qatar money float to them.

坚持让卡塔尔的钱流向他们。

44:05 When the Qatar money dried up, sent the Mossad in to insist that it gets back to him.

当卡塔尔的钱枯竭时，派摩萨德坚持要求将钱归还给他。

Hundreds of millions of dollars, briefcases in cash.

数亿美元，公文包里都是现金。

And he said in his own words that the reason for doing this was to keep, his words were, “Prop up Hamas, bolster Hamas,” to keep them in power so that the West Bank and the Gazans were divided, and that the international community as well as the liberal Jewish community in Israel wouldn’t be able to put pressure on them to make a deal.

他用他自己的话来说，这样做的原因是为了保留，他的原话是，“支持哈马斯，支持哈马斯”，让他们继续掌权，这样约旦河西岸和加沙地区就会分裂，国际社会以及以色列的自由派犹太社区将无法向他们施加压力以达成协议。

But what are the options?

但有哪些选择呢？

44:38 So if he doesn’t allow the money in, it also looks really bad for him, because if he’s not allowing the money in, that means he’s not allowing the quote unquote aid in to help the Palestinians.

因此，如果他不允许这笔钱进入，对他来说看起来也很糟糕，因为如果他不允许这笔钱进入，那就意味着他不允许提供帮助巴勒斯坦人的援助。

But Lex, I mean, the dynamic here is from 2007 to today, Israel’s had a full blockade around the country.

但是莱克斯，我的意思是，从 2007 年到今天，以色列在全国范围内实施了全面封锁。

44:52 They won’t let potatoes in.

他们不让土豆进来。

They won’t let sugar in, and the justification is because they’re dual use, they can be used to make rockets as well as they can be used to feed starving children.

它们不会让糖进入，理由是它们有双重用途，它们可以用来制造火箭，也可以用来喂养饥饿的儿童。

So we can’t let that in because it’s dual use.

所以我们不能让它进来，因为它是双重用途的。

But cash to Hamas, does that not have dual usage?

但是给哈马斯现金，那不是有双重用途吗？

Is there nothing else that they can…

难道他们就没有别的办法了吗……

So yeah, it’s like, yes, when you have a full blockade around the country, you take on certain responsibilities.

所以，是的，就像，是的，当你在全国范围内全面封锁时，你就承担了某些责任。

And I think this is the essence of really the whole struggle here, which is very tough, I think, for the pro-Israel side to grapple with.

我认为这就是这里整个斗争的本质，我认为这对于亲以色列一方来说是非常艰难的。

But the bottom line is that Israel hasn’t occupied Palestine for a few months after a war or even a couple of years after a war, while they’re figuring out what we’re going to do with them.

但最重要的是，以色列在战后几个月甚至几年后都没有占领巴勒斯坦，而他们正在考虑我们将如何处理他们。

45:59 It’s been over 60 years.

已经有60多年了。

We’re talking about a one-week-long war, or a day short of a week long war, in 1967.

我们谈论的是 1967 年一场为期一周的战争，或者是距离一周战争还差一天的战争。

Israel’s had control of them ever since.

从那时起，以色列就控制了它们。

And much in the same way that if you kidnap someone and you lock them in your basement and you don’t feed them, you murdered that person.

就像如果你绑架了某人并将他们锁在地下室并且不给他们食物，你就谋杀了那个人。

So in other words, stated differently, you’re not allowed to kidnap people and lock them in your basement, but once you do, you take on a responsibility to feed those people.

换句话说，你不可以绑架人并将他们锁在地下室里，但一旦你这样做了，你就有责任养活这些人。

You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思吗？

You’re not allowed to keep someone and not feed them.

你不能留着某人而不给他们食物。

That is a worse charge than just keeping them.

这是比仅仅保留它们更糟糕的指控。

So yeah, anyway, I guess my point is the solution to that, if you go like, “Well, I’m a bad guy if I fund Hamas, I’m a bad guy if I don’t let the aid in,” was to let the reputable international aid organizations bring aid in to the people of Gaza.

所以，是的，无论如何，我想我的观点是解决这个问题，如果你说，“好吧，如果我资助哈马斯，我就是一个坏人，如果我不让援助进来，我就是一个坏人”，就是让信誉良好的国际援助组织为加沙人民提供援助。

46:54 Don’t pressure the Qataris to send in briefcases full of cash, allow internationally recognized, reputable human rights organizations who are lining up trying to do it.

不要强迫卡塔尔人送来装满现金的公文包，而要允许国际公认的、信誉良好的人权组织排队尝试这样做。

Stop turning them away, let them in.

别再把他们拒之门外了，让他们进来吧。

And this is just, it’s so long past due.

这只是，它已经过期太久了。

I mean, it’s just…

我的意思是，这只是……

I’m not defending Arab terrorism.

我并不是在为阿拉伯恐怖主义辩护。

I think really it’s a tragedy that the Arabs embraced terrorism.

我认为阿拉伯人拥抱恐怖主义确实是一场悲剧。

I don’t think it’s unique to them.

我不认为这对他们来说是独一无二的。

And in fact, I think it was the Zionist militias who introduced terrorism to that part of the world, but there was also…

事实上，我认为是犹太复国主义民兵将恐怖主义引入了世界的那个地区，但也有……

Look, terrorism persists because it works.

看，恐怖主义之所以持续存在，是因为它有效。

This is true with state terrorism and with non-state terrorism.

国家恐怖主义和非国家恐怖主义都是如此。

Terrorism has often worked for people.

恐怖主义常常对人们有利。

I think the thing…

我认为这件事……

Early Yasser Arafat I know was very influenced by the Algerians who successfully kicked the French out, embracing terrorism.

据我所知，早期的亚西尔·阿拉法特深受阿尔及利亚人的影响，阿尔及利亚人成功地将法国人赶了出去，拥抱恐怖主义。

47:59 And it was almost like the major miscalculation of those Palestinian Arabs who did embrace terrorism, was that this isn’t the French hanging out in some colony with their home country back home where maybe a few acts of violence could work enough to…

这几乎就像那些拥抱恐怖主义的巴勒斯坦阿拉伯人的重大误判一样，这不是法国人在他们的祖国的某个殖民地闲逛，在那里也许一些暴力行为就足以……

The liberal population back home is like, “Oh, I really didn’t like the response to that terrorism.

国内的自由派人士会说：“哦，我真的不喜欢人们对恐怖主义的反应。

We killed so many people.

我们杀了很多人。

Forget it.

忘了它。

This is too much of a headache.

这实在是太让人头疼了。

Let’s get out of here.” The Zionist settlers were there to stay.

我们离开这里吧。”犹太复国主义定居者留在那里。

They weren’t going anywhere.

他们哪儿也不去。

They weren’t going back to Eastern Europe.

他们不会回东欧。

You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思吗？

48:36 And so it’s a tragedy that this whole thing went the way it did.

所以整件事发展成这样真是一个悲剧。

But you always…

但你总是……

Whenever you’re talking about a conflict like this, the person who has…

每当你谈论这样的冲突时，那个人……

Or the party who has the power is the one who needs make concessions, and it’s just indefensible that the status quo of the Palestinian people having no rights, literally no rights, being ruled by a government that they do not get to vote for or against, no right to do commerce with the outside world, no freedom of travel, no freedom of movement, no basic property rights, you can be kicked out of your home at any time, no right to a fair trial, no right to a lawyer, no right to a jury of your peers, I mean, the fact that that has been the status quo since 1967 is just indefensible.

或者有权力的一方是需要做出让步的一方，而巴勒斯坦人民的现状是无可辩解的，他们没有权利，实际上没有权利，被一个他们无法投票赞成或反对的政府统治，没有权利与外界做生意，没有旅行自由，没有迁徙自由，没有基本财产权，你可以随时被赶出家门，没有公平审判的权利，没有聘请律师的权利，没有陪审团的权利我的意思是，对于你们的同行来说，自 1967 年以来一直如此的事实是站不住脚的。

And then in the context that that has been the status quo, I guess I’m just not, even though I’m against it, it’s like when you’re just lecturing about the way in which they resist this.

然后在这就是现状的情况下，我想我只是不这样做，即使我反对它，就像你只是在讲授他们抵制这种方式的方式一样。

I think it’s very tough to be on a strong moral footing.

我认为建立牢固的道德基础是非常困难的。

Yeah, you have to really empathize with decades of suffering in the region.

是的，你必须真正同情该地区数十年的苦难。

49:46 I suppose my question was grounded in how can the Israeli government, how can the world help the Palestinian people flourish?

我想我的问题是基于以色列政府、世界如何帮助巴勒斯坦人民繁荣？

So you suggested allowing reputable aid organizations in, but that’s kind of almost patching, just helping humans who are suffering.

所以你建议允许信誉良好的援助组织加入，但这几乎是修补，只是帮助受苦受难的人们。

But that’s not how you have a nation flourish.

但这并不是一个国家繁荣发展的方式。

You have to build up the infrastructure.

你必须建立基础设施。

You have to build up a culture, the education system, the democratic processes of electing and regular elections so that the people are represented.

你必须建立一种文化、教育体系、民主选举程序和定期选举，以便人民得到代表。

And you have to form partnerships, friendships, normalization of relations with the Arab world, with Israel.

你必须与阿拉伯世界、以色列建立伙伴关系、友谊，实现关系正常化。

You can travel back and forth and lessen the chokehold, the security chokehold, that you could say is justified in a militaristic situation, but why is it a military situation?

你可以来回旅行并减轻封锁，安全封锁，你可以说这在军国主义局势中是合理的，但为什么这是军事局势呢？

The question is there, where do we go from here?

问题就在那里，我们从这里去哪里？

If we…

如果我们...

We will talk about Netanyahu some more.

我们将进一步讨论内塔尼亚胡。

He is very criticized inside Israel as well.

他在以色列国内也受到严厉批评。

Yeah, for sure.

是的，当然。

Maybe less so after October 7th, because again, in the same way you can empathize with the Palestinian people, you can empathize with Israelis where October 7th touched, just like it did for Americans with 9/11, it touched some kind of primal thing of fear, of like, “Holy shit.”

也许在 10 月 7 日之后就不那么重要了，因为同样，你可以同情巴勒斯坦人民，你也可以同情以色列人，10 月 7 日所触及的地方，就像 9/11 事件对美国人所做的那样，它触及了某种原始的恐惧，比如“天哪”。

Yeah, a hundred percent.

是的，百分之一百。

51:31 Oh yeah, and the same thing I said before.

哦，是的，和我之前说过的一样。

I could also very easily go if one of my kids was at that rave or something like that and just got gunned down or kidnapped by…

如果我的一个孩子参加聚会或类似的活动并且被枪杀或绑架，我也可以很容易地去……

I could understand being, “Level the whole goddamn place.” And I’m sure I would feel that way if that was one of my kids.

我能理解“把整个该死的地方夷为平地”。我确信如果那是我的孩子之一我也会有这种感觉。

So yeah, no, that’s exactly right.

所以是的，不，这是完全正确的。

I mean, there’s lots of examples in the world of…

我的意思是，世界上有很多这样的例子……

Like France and Germany are right next to each other, and Ireland and England are right next to each other, and they’re just totally living in harmony right now.

就像法国和德国毗邻，爱尔兰和英格兰毗邻，他们现在完全和谐相处。

There is just no…

只是没有……

The thought of them going to war is inconceivable right now, not saying it could never happen in the future, but it seems pretty hard to imagine.

他们开战的想法现在是不可想象的，并不是说将来永远不会发生，但似乎很难想象。

And that being the case would’ve been very hard to imagine for a very long time.

在很长一段时间内，这种情况都是很难想象的。

I mean, there’s some serious levels of brutality between those two societies.

我的意思是，这两个社会之间存在着严重的残暴行为。

52:26 And even more directly involved, Egypt and Israel went to war four times in a couple of decades.

更直接的是，埃及和以色列在几十年内爆发了四次战争。

They went to war, and then in the late ’70s, they made a land for peace deal, and they haven’t been to war since.

他们发动了战争，然后在 70 年代末，他们达成了土地换和平协议，从那以后他们就没有再参加过战争。

I do at least try to hold out that that is…

我至少尝试坚持认为那是……

It’s not like Egypt is…

这不像埃及……

You’re not going to say they don’t have an issue with radical Islam in Egypt.

你不会说他们对埃及的激进伊斯兰教没有意见。

You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思吗？

That’s not the answer.

这不是答案。

It’s just that they made a land for peace deal, and once that was solved, it was easier to avoid the war.

只是他们达成了土地换和平协议，一旦解决了，就更容易避免战争了。

And I do like to think that there could be a solution to the Israel-Palestine question, but it’s going to have to involve Israel taking their boot off of the Palestinians neck.

我确实认为以色列-巴勒斯坦问题可能有一个解决方案，但这必须涉及以色列从巴勒斯坦人的脖子上拿走他们的靴子。

And I know that that’s scary, and I understand that there are legitimate concerns about that.

我知道这很可怕，我也知道对此的担忧是合理的。

There was the great Thomas Jefferson quote about slavery, which was, ” We have the wolf by the tail, and we can neither afford to hold onto him, nor risk letting him go.”

关于奴隶制，托马斯·杰斐逊有一句伟大的名言：“我们已经抓住了狼的尾巴，我们既不能留住他，也不能冒险放他走。”

53:38 Which is like you could see where that would’ve been a real concern of people right toward the end of slavery or whatever in the early 1800, say the first half of the 19th century, where you’d be like, “Okay, okay, okay, we recognize this is wrong now, but we’ve had these millions of people enslaved for all these years.

就像你可以看到，在奴隶制即将结束或 1800 年初，比如 19 世纪上半叶，这才是人们真正关心的问题，你会说，“好吧，好吧，好吧，我们现在认识到这是错误的，但这些年来我们已经让数百万人被奴役了。

If we let them go, they’re going to fucking kill us.

如果我们放他们走，他们就会杀了我们。

And what are you saying?

你在说什么？

They’re citizens now, meaning the Second Amendment applies to them, meaning that the guy who I enslaved now can get a gun.

他们现在是公民了，这意味着第二修正案适用于他们，这意味着我现在奴役的人可以得到一把枪。

You know what…” So okay, there are the…

你知道吗……”好吧，有……

But I think in hindsight, looking back at it, we would all just go, “Yeah, but you can’t enslave people.

但我认为事后看来，我们都会说，“是的，但你不能奴役别人。

So whatever risks come with the next phase of this, unfortunately you are going to have to just deal with that and move.

因此，无论下一阶段出现什么风险，不幸的是，你都必须应对它并采取行动。

You have to start with abolishing slavery.”

你必须从废除奴隶制开始。”

And it is good to also remember in the hopeful message you send, at any day, you can make a deal.

最好在您发送的充满希望的信息中记住，您随时都可以达成协议。

54:29 That’s one of the frustrating things I had with…

这是我经历过的令人沮丧的事情之一……

I hosted a debate on Israel, and it was…

我主持了一场关于以色列的辩论，那是……

It just felt hopeless.

只是感觉很无望。

And a lot of people I talk to, it feels hopeless, but I have a lot of…

和我交谈过的很多人都感到绝望，但我有很多……

I maybe naively see a lot of possibilities at peace there.

我或许天真地看到了和平那里有很多可能性。

I see, for example, normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel, and then Saudi Arabia taking some ownership over Gaza, something like that, some interesting…

例如，我看到与沙特阿拉伯和以色列的关系正常化，然后沙特阿拉伯对加沙取得了一些所有权，类似的事情，一些有趣的……

Where a big major player in that region takes ownership and steps as the middle man.

该地区的主要参与者拥有所有权并作为中间人。

Yeah, I agree with you.

是的，我同意你的观点。

55:08 And you’re 100% right, and even before October 7th, I think many steps had been taken away from the peace process and the feeling of that.

你说得100%正确，甚至在10月7日之前，我认为和平进程和和平进程的感觉已经被取消了很多步骤。

I mean, really, I think since the second Intifada is when the appetite for peace, I think in Israel was greatly diminished.

我的意思是，实际上，我认为自从第二次起义以来，以色列对和平的渴望就大大减弱了。

But to your point, I mean, it’s going to take really painful concessions on all sides in order to get there.

但就你的观点而言，我的意思是，为了实现这一目标，各方都需要做出非常痛苦的让步。

I think that the…

我认为……

Personally, I think…

就我个人而言，我认为……

And I don’t know if I say this for not necessarily the Arab world, but at least the nation states, their governments, I think are pretty much there.

我不知道我这样说是否不一定是针对阿拉伯世界，但至少是民族国家及其政府，我认为几乎都在那里。

Like Saudi Arabia and UAE and Jordan and Egypt…

比如沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、约旦和埃及……

If the Israelis…

如果以色列人...

They’re almost like, “Look, these are American sock puppets,” for the most part.

大多数情况下，他们几乎就像是，“看，这些是美国的袜子木偶”。

And so their thing is that, “Okay, 100% of my population is completely opposed to what Israel’s doing to Palestine right now.”

所以他们的想法是，“好吧，我 100% 的人完全反对以色列现在对巴勒斯坦所做的事情。”

56:17 And they just hate that Israel…

他们只是讨厌以色列......

That the nation was created at all, that all the Arabs were kicked out of what is very important land to them religiously.

这个国家根本就被创建了，所有的阿拉伯人都被赶出了对他们来说非常重要的宗教土地。

And so the governments there are like, “Look, we want to continue to have U.S. tax dollars flooding in here, and we’d love to make a deal with Israel, but you got to stop doing this to the Palestinians so my own people don’t rise up against me.” So I think as long…

因此，那里的政府会说，“看，我们希望继续让美国税款涌入这里，我们很乐意与以色列达成协议，但你必须停止对巴勒斯坦人这样做，这样我自己的人民就不会起来反对我。”所以我想只要...

If the Israelis were like, “Fine, we’ll do a two-state solution,” or something like that, I think Saudi Arabia couldn’t wait to broker…

如果以色列人说，“好吧，我们将采取两国解决方案”，或者类似的事情，我认为沙特阿拉伯迫不及待地想从中斡旋……

In fact, they proposed a two-state solution just a few years ago.

事实上，他们几年前就提出了两国解决方案。

I mean, they would love to be a part of that, normalize relations.

我的意思是，他们很乐意参与其中，实现关系正常化。

56:58 Amongst the Palestinians, which again, I think this had been accepted multiple times, at least by their leadership.

在巴勒斯坦人中，我认为这一点已经被多次接受，至少被他们的领导层接受。

It’s like, “Yeah, you’re going to have to accept that you lost in ’48.

就像是，“是的，你必须接受你在 48 年输了的事实。

You’re going to have to accept that you lost in ’47.

你将不得不接受你在 47 年失败的事实。

You’re going to have to accept that the state of Israel does exist, and you’re going to have to accept that the right of return is not going to literally mean that everybody can go back to where they were.” And what Israel’s going to have to concede is that it was awfully fucked up that they kicked a lot of people out of their land, and that the whole, “A land for people for a people without land,” was never true.

你必须接受以色列国确实存在，你必须接受返回权并不意味着每个人都可以回到原来的地方。”以色列必须承认的是，他们把很多人赶出了自己的土地，这真是太糟糕了，而且“为没有土地的人民提供人民的土地”这句话从来都不是真的。

That was just a slogan that felt good to avoid what you guys actually did.

这只是一个口号，避免你们实际做的事情感觉很好。

And the fact that it was inexcusable that you guys occupied these people for 60 years, and that has to end immediately.

事实上，你们占领这些人60年是不可原谅的，必须立即结束。

I interviewed Douglas Murray recently.

我最近采访了道格拉斯·默里。

57:49 He just wrote a book on Israel and Hamas called On Democracies and Death Cults.

他刚刚写了一本关于以色列和哈马斯的书，名为《论民主与死亡邪教》。

He makes, what I think is a strong pro-Israel case, focusing on Hamas as an evil organization, evil for its corrupt leadership who’s essentially stealing money from the Palestinian people and allocating the money that is there towards terrorists, militaristic operations versus building up Gaza.

我认为他提出了一个强有力的亲以色列案例，重点关注哈马斯是一个邪恶的组织，其腐败的领导层本质上是从巴勒斯坦人民那里偷钱，并将那里的钱分配给恐怖分子、军国主义行动而不是建设加沙。

Can you steel man the case for, and then against this perspective, centering…

你能钢铁侠提出理由，然后反对这个观点，集中......

We’ve been talking about the people, about centering around Hamas, which is like this extremist religious organization.

我们一直在谈论人民，谈论以哈马斯为中心，这就像这个极端主义宗教组织。

The perspective being like they need to be, as you mentioned before, eliminated before any progress can be made.

正如您之前提到的，在取得任何进展之前，需要消除这些观点。

Okay, so if I were…

好吧，如果我是……

58:42 So steelman Douglas Murray’s case, I would say, “Well, I guess the case is right.” Look, Hamas is a fanatical death cult, essentially, which I do think is a fair description of them.

因此，对于钢铁人道格拉斯·穆雷的案例，我会说，“嗯，我想这个案例是正确的。”看，哈马斯本质上是一个狂热的死亡邪教，我认为这是对他们的一个公平的描述。

There is no question that they have pursued…

毫无疑问，他们一直在追求……

They have pursued a path that was just devastating to their own people.

他们所走的道路对他们自己的人民来说是毁灭性的。

And there’s no question, they have not spent the resources they have, their priority has not been uplifting their own people.

毫无疑问，他们没有花费他们拥有的资源，他们的首要任务并不是提升自己的人民。

Their priority has been, I think, essentially antagonizing Israel into this overreaction so that they can turn world opinion against Israel.

我认为，他们的首要任务本质上是对抗以色列的过度反应，以便他们能够让世界舆论反对以色列。

I think they’ve been very effective at doing that.

我认为他们在这方面非常有效。

And again, I think the argument would come back to something like, “And the people voted for this in 2005, and the people sure do…

再说一次，我认为争论会回到类似这样的情况：“人们在 2005 年投票支持了这一点，而且人们确实这样做了……

We sure do see a lot of people cheering when Hamas is doing some pretty horrific stuff.” And so, hey, you got that on one side, and you have a country that’s much more similar to Western societies on the other side.

当哈马斯做一些非常可怕的事情时，我们确实看到很多人欢呼。”所以，嘿，一方面是这样，另一方面是一个与西方社会更加相似的国家。

If we can just linger on that steelman, what do you make of the celebrations in Gaza after October 7th?

如果我们能继续关注这位钢铁侠，您对 10 月 7 日之后加沙的庆祝活动有何看法？

I think it’s sickening and incredibly disturbing.

我认为这令人恶心且令人难以置信。

1:00:04 I guess the way I look at it…

我想我看待它的方式......

I always, and maybe there is a degree of naivete to this, or perhaps it’s just that I just don’t want to allow myself to go down a certain path because I think it leads to such dark outcomes, but I always try to be against the government for the people, against the powerful sympathetic to the powerless.

我总是这样，也许有一定程度的天真，或者也许只是我不想让自己走上某条路，因为我认为这会导致如此黑暗的结果，但我总是试图为了人民而反对政府，反对强权，同情弱者。

I think that…

我认为……

Look, it’s sickening.

看看吧，真恶心。

You see big crowds cheering on people with these people who have been in captivity for…

你会看到一大群人为这些被囚禁了很长时间的人欢呼……

I think some of them for over a year and a half.

我想其中一些已经超过一年半了。

1:00:50 I also thought when Nikki Haley and other Israeli politicians are signing the bombs before they’re launched into Gaza, I found that sickening.

我还认为，当妮基·黑利和其他以色列政客在炸弹发射到加沙之前签署炸弹时，我发现这令人作呕。

I think there’s all types.

我认为所有类型都有。

I think mission accomplished banners and flying on…

我认为任务完成了横幅并继续飞行......

I mean, I think all of the…

我的意思是，我认为所有...

I think having Bob Hope specials at the end of the Persian Gulf War was sickening it.

我认为波斯湾战争结束时鲍勃·霍普的特别节目令人作呕。

I just think all of it is horrific.

我只是觉得这一切都很可怕。

I look at it and I try to say to myself, “Okay, we had one 9/11 in this country, and we all…

我看着它，试着对自己说：“好吧，这个国家发生了 9/11，我们都……

Collectively we lost our minds as a society.

作为一个社会，我们集体失去了理智。

We were ready to go bomb whoever the hell our politicians told us to bomb, and we didn’t care how many people it killed, and we killed a lot more than Israel or Hamas has killed doing it.

我们已经准备好轰炸我们的政客告诉我们轰炸的任何人，我们不在乎它杀死了多少人，而且我们杀死的人比以色列或哈马斯杀死的人多得多。

And I try to think to myself, “Okay, imagine being trapped in what is…” People could call it whatever they want to.

我试着对自己说，“好吧，想象一下被困在……”人们可以随心所欲地称呼它。

1:01:48 I do think Pat Buchanan and these guys were right to call it a concentration camp.

我确实认为帕特·布坎南和这些人称其为集中营是正确的。

You’re trapped in a five-mile by 25 mile area where you cannot leave.

您被困在一个 5 英里 x 25 英里的区域中，无法离开。

You are stuck there.

你被困在那里了。

You don’t have an airport, because the Israelis bombed it.

你们没有机场，因为以色列人轰炸了它。

You don’t have a seaport, because they won’t allow you.

你没有海港，因为他们不允许你。

You have no access to trade with the outside world, and you’re not suffering through a 9/11.

你无法与外界进行贸易，也不会遭受 9/11 的痛苦。

You’re suffering through a thousand 9/11s.

你正在经历一千次 9/11 事件。

Your whole life has been…

你的一生都是……

The people in Gaza, their entire life has been being refugees, you know what I mean?

加沙人民一生都是难民，你明白我的意思吗？

Their entire life.

他们的一生。

There’s generations of people who have been in this status now.

现在有几代人一直处于这种状态。

And so if my society lost its mind after one 9/11, I just have a tough time judging the people who came up in this environment.

因此，如果我的社会在 9/11 事件后失去了理智，我就很难评判在这种环境下成长的人们。

But there’s no question.

但毫无疑问。

It is, I mean, it’s profoundly disturbing.

我的意思是，这令人深感不安。

But I wonder how much of the indoctrination has really made the software of their mind permanently anti-peace, extremify them.

但我想知道有多少灌输真正使他们的思想软件永久反和平，使他们极端化。

1:02:40 And it doesn’t justify anything, but it’s more concerning for the prospects of peace.

它并不能证明任何事情是合理的，但它更关心和平的前景。

Well, I’d say…

好吧，我想说……

1:03:04 I get your point.

我明白你的意思。

It’s an interesting question that I don’t know if any of us know exactly the answer to, but I would say that…

这是一个有趣的问题，我不知道我们中是否有人知道确切的答案，但我想说……

Even after, what was it, 80 years of the Soviet Union, and there were real debates back then about the new communist man, and whether the minds had been so warped of people that they would never even care about these things like liberty or national identity or independence.

即使在苏联成立80年后，当时也存在着关于新共产主义人的真正辩论，以及人们的思想是否已经如此扭曲，以至于他们永远不会关心诸如自由、民族认同或独立之类的事情。

And then yet, at the end, it was all still there.

然而，到了最后，一切都还在那里。

It was very repressed, and it went underground and people weren’t allowed to talk about, but they all still had it.

它非常压抑，它转入地下，人们不被允许谈论它，但他们仍然拥有它。

And in fact, I was just listening the other day to this Murray Rothbard speech from the early nineties, and he was talking about how…

事实上，前几天我刚刚在听默里·罗斯巴德 (Murray Rothbard) 九十年代初的演讲，他正在谈论如何……

There was something where there was a camera crew interviewed a Chinese family under a real deal Chinese communism, I believe it was before Mao Zedong died, and they were just saying all these this crazy to the camera.

有一个摄制组采访了一个真正的中国共产主义下的中国家庭，我相信那是在毛泽东去世之前，他们只是对着镜头说这些疯狂的话。

1:04:08 They were like, “Would you rather your sons are healthy and live good lives?

他们说，“你希望你的儿子们健康、过上美好的生活吗？

Or would you rather they suffer, but be loyal obedience to the state?” And they were like, “We would rather they be obedient to the state,” and blah, blah, blah and all these things.

或者你宁愿他们受苦，但对国家忠诚服从？”他们说，“我们宁愿他们服从国家”，诸如此类。

And Murray Rothbard was saying he saw this interview and he was talking to his friend.

默里·罗斯巴德说他看到了这次采访，并且正在和他的朋友交谈。

He was, “Oh my God, this is horrible.

他说：“天哪，这太可怕了。

It’s hopeless.

这是没有希望的。

These people’s minds have been warped.” And then he was talking to his friend who’s like a China expert who had been there, and he was like, “No, they’re not.

这些人的思想已经扭曲了。”然后他和他的朋友交谈，他的朋友就像一位去过那里的中国专家，他说，“不，他们不是。

That’s what they say when the cameras are around.

当摄像机在身边时，他们就是这么说的。

As soon as the cameras go…” So anyway, I’m just making the point there that there is…

一旦摄像机开始……”所以无论如何，我只是想表明一点……

Look, even in the situation with Israel and Gaza, specifically Gaza, not even the West Bank, when…

看，即使在以色列和加沙的局势中，特别是加沙，甚至是西岸，当……

You could look at it, when the peace talks were going on, support for Hamas plummeted, when the peace talks fell apart, support for Hamas went way back up.

你可以看一下，当和谈进行时，对哈马斯的支持率直线下降，当和谈破裂时，对哈马斯的支持率又回升。

Every time there’s an aggressive military campaign, support for Hamas goes back up.

每当发生侵略性的军事行动时，对哈马斯的支持都会增加。

So I just think that I’m more hopeful than not, that you could get to a place where…

所以我只是认为我更有希望，你可以到达一个地方......

But it requires…

但这需要……

You have to…

你必须……

If you do understand the Ron Paul point about blowback, the General McChrystal point about insurgent math, you just realize that it’s like you are fighting in a way that produces more of the thing that you’re fighting.

如果你确实理解罗恩·保罗关于反击的观点，麦克里斯特尔将军关于叛乱数学的观点，你就会意识到，就像你正在以一种产生更多你正在战斗的东西的方式进行战斗。

And so the first step is to stop doing that.

所以第一步就是停止这样做。

Your cure is making the patient more sick.

你的治疗方法正在使病人病情加重。

So stop doing that.

所以别再这样做了。

And then let’s see if maybe we could heal.

然后让我们看看是否可以治愈。

What about the case against…

反对的案件又如何呢？

1:05:41 The Douglas Murray case of the death cults and that a fundamental part of this process, Hamas needs to be eliminated?

道格拉斯·默里的死亡邪教案以及这个过程的一个基本部分，哈马斯需要被消灭吗？

Well, I mean, first of all, I would just say that, and I’m not saying this as a fan of democracy.

嗯，我的意思是，首先，我只是这么说，而且我并不是作为民主的拥护者这么说的。

1:05:50 I’m not a big believer in democracy.

我不太相信民主。

I believe in liberty, and I think democracy is often not in line with liberty.

我相信自由，但我认为民主往往与自由不一致。

The Chinese government paid you to say that as well?

中国政府也付钱让你这么说？

That’s literally all I had to get out.

这实际上就是我必须摆脱的一切。

It’s a plug.

这是一个插头。

But I get to say what I want the rest of the podcast, but just that I had to…

但我可以说出我想要播客其余部分的内容，但我必须……

1:06:14 No, well, I don’t…

不，好吧，我不……

Well, no, I mean my beef with the Chinese government would not be that they don’t hold regular elections.

嗯，不，我的意思是我对中国政府的不满不是他们不举行定期选举。

My beef with them would be that they silenced speech, that they put people in camps and things like that, the surveillance, that stuff.

我对他们的不满是他们压制言论，他们把人们关进营地之类的，监视之类的。

I think…

我认为……

Look, when you call Israel a democracy, which I guess is right in the title of his book, and I, full disclosure, I haven’t read the book, but I have listened to some of his thoughts on this stuff, I think you’ve run up against a real problem, which is that the creation of the state of Israel, even though he tried to walk away from those comments as Norm Finkelstein called out Benny Morris for writing in his book 1948, which is a great book.

听着，当你称以色列为民主国家时，我想这在他的书的标题中是正确的，而我，完全披露，我没有读过这本书，但我听过他对这些东西的一些想法，我认为你遇到了一个真正的问题，那就是以色列国的创建，尽管他试图摆脱这些评论，因为诺姆·芬克尔斯坦（Norm Finkelstein）在他的书《1948》中指责本尼·莫里斯（Benny Morris）在他的书《1948》中写道，这是一本伟大的书。

His words were, “The Zionist project always knew it was going to involve transfer.” That was Benny Morris’s words.

他的原话是：“犹太复国主义项目一直都知道它将涉及转移。”这是本尼·莫里斯的话。

Now, when Finkelstein was grilling him on this on your podcast, he kind of said, “Yeah, but that doesn’t mean ethnic cleansing.

现在，当芬克尔斯坦在你的播客上就此拷问他时，他有点说，“是的，但这并不意味着种族清洗。

That could be voluntary transfer.” You know what I mean?

这可能是自愿转移。”你知道我的意思吗？

But the point is, the Zionist settlers, and they spoke about this openly, they all knew they had a major problem, which is like, “Well, you can’t create a Jewish state if it’s 50/50,” which is…

但关键是，犹太复国主义定居者，他们公开谈论这一点，他们都知道他们有一个重大问题，就像，“好吧，如果是 50/50，你就不能创建一个犹太国家，”这是......

And in all of Israel, it was much less than 50/50, but even in the Israeli portion of the partition recommendation, it was very close to 50/50.

在整个以色列，这一比例远低于 50/50，但即使在分区建议的以色列部分，也非常接近 50/50。

Now, you can’t really have a Jewish state with a 50/50 voter base, because now you’re just in a breeding war for the next generation, or who turns out the vote…

现在，你不可能真正拥有一个拥有 50/50 选民基础的犹太国家，因为现在你正处于下一代的繁殖战争中，或者谁来投票……

Any more than we could hope…

超出我们的希望……

It would be the prospect right now of making America an official Republican state or an official Democrat state.

现在的前景是让美国成为一个正式的共和党国家或一个正式的民主党国家。

“Well, how are you going to do that, man?

“那么，你打算怎么做呢，伙计？

It’s like 50/50 between the two.” And so I think what Benny…

两者之间的比例就像是 50/50。”所以我认为本尼……

1:08:00 Do that, man, it’s like 50/50 between the two.

这样做，伙计，两者之间就像 50/50 一样。

And so I think what Benny Morris was saying was that, they always knew some of these Arabs are going to have to get moved out of here so that we could have more of something, which ultimately where they got to like an 80/20, which is pretty much what Israel’s maintained the whole time.

所以我认为本尼·莫里斯所说的是，他们一直知道一些阿拉伯人将不得不搬出这里，这样我们才能拥有更多的东西，最终他们喜欢80/20，这几乎就是以色列一直以来所维持的。

Now, Benny Morris could quarrel about whether that necessarily meant voluntary, but when it happened, it wasn’t voluntary, okay?

现在，本尼·莫里斯可能会争论这是否一定意味着自愿，但当它发生时，它就不是自愿的，好吗？

So when it actually happened in effect, it involved a massive amount, somewhere between 700 and 800,000 Arabs being forcefully evicted out of this area.

因此，当它真正发生时，涉及大量阿拉伯人，大约有 700 到 800,000 名阿拉伯人被强行驱逐出该地区。

1:08:32 Now, that’s one thing, a lot of nations are started on somethings like that.

现在，这是一回事，许多国家都开始做类似的事情。

I suppose if you just did that, and then you were left with your 80/20 split and you go, “But we have elections from here on out.” I guess you could claim it’s a democracy, still seems like kind of gaming the democratic system a little bit, you know what I mean?

我想如果你这样做了，然后你就剩下 80/20 的分歧，你会说，“但从现在开始我们有选举。”我想你可以声称这是一个民主国家，但看起来仍然有点像在玩弄民主制度，你知道我的意思吗？

If I just deported 80% of Democrats and then say, “Look, Republicans win every election.” You might be like, “Yeah, dude, but you didn’t exactly get there democratically.

如果我驱逐 80% 的民主党人，然后说：“看，共和党赢得了每次选举。”你可能会说，“是的，伙计，但你并没有完全民主地做到这一点。

You got there through force.” But forget that, I’ll let that one go and just say, “I’ll call you a democracy if you just kept being a democracy like that moving forward.”

你是通过武力到达那里的。”但忘了这一点，我会放开那个，只是说：“如果你继续保持这样的民主状态，我会称你为民主国家。”

1:09:06 The real problem is the occupation that starts in 1967.

真正的问题是 1967 年开始的占领。

Because look, when you’ve occupied an area since 1967, you can’t even really call it an occupation anymore, it’s an annexation.

因为你看，当你自 1967 年以来占领了一个地区时，你甚至不能再称其为占领，而是吞并。

You took these lands.

你占领了这些土地。

You have control of it.

你可以控制它。

You are what the definition of the government is.

你就是政府的定义。

And you could call Hamas the government all you want to, but they’re not the sovereigns.

你可以随心所欲地称哈马斯为政府，但他们不是主权国家。

They’re not the final decision makers.

他们不是最终决策者。

Israel’s the final decision maker.

以色列是最终决策者。

Hamas does not meaningfully in any way decide the biggest questions about Gaza, I’m talking before this war, pre-October 7th.

哈马斯并没有以任何方式有意义地决定有关加沙的最大问题，我是在这场战争之前，10 月 7 日之前说的。

And so the problem Israel has in order to call themselves a democracy, is that there’s somewhere between 5 and 6 million people, less now because they’ve killed a lot of them.

因此，以色列要称自己为民主国家，所面临的问题是，它有 5 到 600 万人，现在更少，因为他们杀死了很多人。

But there’s somewhere between 5 and 6 million people who live under Israeli control who do not have voting rights.

但有 5 至 600 万人生活在以色列控制下，没有投票权。

1:10:03 And by any other reasonable, commonly held standard of democracy, we would not call that a democracy.

按照任何其他合理的、普遍持有的民主标准，我们不会称其为民主。

I mean, again, I’m not even saying this to try to be inflammatory or try to pick on the Israelis.

我的意思是，我再说一遍，我这么说并不是为了煽动或试图针对以色列人。

There’s things about Israeli society I like, I don’t hate the people there.

我喜欢以色列社会的一些东西，我不讨厌那里的人。

I’m Jewish, I love Jewish people.

我是犹太人，我爱犹太人。

But the fact is, that’s not a democracy, that’s an apartheid state.

但事实是，那不是民主国家，而是种族隔离国家。

I’m not even trying to be inflammatory when I say this, it’s just literally describing what’s in front of you.

当我这么说时，我什至不想煽动性，这只是字面上描述你面前的事情。

If we in America right now said Black people no longer get to vote, and Black people can only live in these few neighborhoods, we don’t get to call ourselves a democracy anymore then.

如果我们现在在美国说黑人不再有投票权，黑人只能生活在这几个社区，那么我们就不能再称自己为民主国家了。

And I’m not even coming at this from a pro-democracy point of view, I’m just saying if your defense of them is like, “Well, we’re a democracy,” which seems to be the case so much.

我什至不是从支持民主的角度来看待这个问题，我只是说，如果你为他们辩护，“好吧，我们是民主国家”，情况似乎确实如此。

Well no, you’re really not.

好吧，不，你真的不是。

You’re really not, as long as you got millions of people who have no say in their own government, then you’re really not a democracy.

你真的不是，只要你有数百万人在自己的政府中没有发言权，那么你就真的不是一个民主国家。

And so again, so you could frame it as democracy versus death cult, was his language for Hamas?

那么，你可以将其定义为民主与死亡邪教，这是他对哈马斯的语言吗？

Yeah.

是的。

And all right, it’s a little bit difficult to accuse another group of being a death cult when the group you are supporting has killed so many more people than them.

好吧，当你所支持的团体杀害的人比他们多得多时，指责另一个团体是死亡邪教有点困难。

1:11:09 Now, I’m not saying that’s the only metric.

现在，我并不是说这是唯一的衡量标准。

There’s other things that are factors too.

还有其他因素也是因素。

But the fact is that you have…

但事实是你有……

I mean, I don’t know to look over the numbers for the whole history of the conflict, but the amount killed by the Israelis on the Palestinian side, versus the amount killed by the Palestinians is 20 to 1 in Israel’s killing more people, maybe more than that, I don’t know exactly, I’d have to look at the numbers.

我的意思是，我不知道要查看整个冲突历史的数字，但以色列人在巴勒斯坦方面杀害的人数与巴勒斯坦人杀害的人数在以色列杀害更多人中是 20 比 1，也许更多，我不太清楚，我必须看看数字。

But Israel’s called far, far more Palestinians than Palestinians have ever killed Israelis.

但以色列召唤的巴勒斯坦人远远多于杀害以色列人的巴勒斯坦人。

And so it rings a little hollow to me to just call them a death cult.

因此，在我看来，称他们为死亡邪教有点空洞。

We’re the democracy, even though there’s millions of people who can’t vote over who rules them, but they’re the death cult.

我们是民主国家，尽管有数百万人无法投票决定谁统治他们，但他们是死亡崇拜者。

I mean, look, they kill people in a more primitive, barbaric way, I guess you could say.

我的意思是，你看，他们以一种更原始、更野蛮的方式杀人，我想你可能会说。

There’s something a little bit cleaner about when it’s done by a government, and it’s collateral damage, and it was done with sophisticated weaponry.

当它由政府完成时，事情会更干净一些，而且会造成附带损害，而且是用先进的武器完成的。

Okay, still innocent people on the end of those bombs.

好吧，那些炸弹下仍然有无辜的人。

Absolutely.

绝对的。

1:12:20 But there is, I think, a powerful ethical difference when you mentioned about the 8-year-old girl, right?

但我认为，当你提到这个 8 岁女孩时，存在着巨大的道德差异，对吧？

If in your stated goals of the war, is to do everything you can to avoid the death of that girl, versus saying, “We love death more than we love life” And Israelis democracy or not are pro-life for life.

如果在你既定的战争目标中，是尽一切努力避免那个女孩的死亡，而不是说“我们爱死亡胜过爱生命”，那么以色列的民主制度是否支持终身堕胎。

I mean, okay, I don’t 100% disagree with you, but I think if I were to say the degree to which that matters…

我的意思是，好吧，我并不是 100% 不同意你的观点，但我想如果我要说这有多重要……

1:12:47 At a murder trial after somebody’s been convicted and before sentencing, sometimes the judge will allow them to give a statement.

在谋杀案审判中，某人被定罪后和量刑前，有时法官会允许他们发表声明。

And if their statement is like, “I’m very sorry for what I did, and I’m so sorry to the family, and this or that or that.” That might be life without parole rather than the death penalty.

如果他们的声明是这样的，“我对我所做的事情感到非常抱歉，我对家人感到非常抱歉，以及这个或那个或那个。”这可能是终身监禁，不得假释，而不是死刑。

You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思吗？

It might make that bit of difference in that.

这可能会带来一点不同。

And if you get up there and you’re like, “Hey, I’m happy for what I did, screw the family, [inaudible 01:13:22].” That might make a judge who was going to give you life without parole, give you the death penalty or something like.

如果你站在那里，你会说，“嘿，我为自己所做的事感到高兴，操蛋的家庭，[听不清 01:13:22]。”这可能会让本来打算判处你无期徒刑且不得假释的法官判处你死刑或类似的刑罚。

It’s that type of margin around the edge.

这就是边缘的那种边距。

1:13:29 Let’s say you’re a really bad guy, and I want to kill you.

假设你是一个非常坏的人，我想杀了你。

And you are at home with a bunch of women and children, and I know there’s women and children there.

你在家里有一群妇女和儿童，我知道那里有妇女和儿童。

I know for a fact that if I blow up this building, it’s going to kill all those babies.

我知道一个事实，如果我炸毁这座建筑物，就会杀死所有这些婴儿。

What I would be charged with is murder in the first degree.

我将被指控一级谋杀罪。

And the fact that I went in there and said, “Well, listen, hold on.

事实上，我进去说：“好吧，听着，等等。

It’s a shame that I had to kill those babies, I really just wanted to kill that one guy, I wish the babies weren’t there.” And they’d be like, “Yeah, but you knew they were there, and you did it anyway.

很遗憾我不得不杀死那些婴儿，我真的只想杀了那个家伙，我希望婴儿不在那里。”他们会说：“是的，但你知道他们在那里，但你还是这么做了。

You get murder in the first degree.” Maybe it would make some little difference tinkering around with the sentencing at the end of it, but it doesn’t like in kind change what the crime is there.

你犯的是一级谋杀罪。”也许对最后的量刑进行修改会产生一些小小的影响，但它不喜欢以实物方式改变犯罪的内容。

1:14:15 And so I just think at a certain point, if you’re doing something like…

所以我只是想在某个时候，如果你正在做类似的事情......

Look, I’ll say maybe with a little bit of an edge.

听着，我会说也许有一点优势。

Let’s say Barack Obama wants to drone-bomb this place to kill a terrorist.

假设巴拉克·奥巴马想要用无人机轰炸这个地方来杀死一名恐怖分子。

And he thinks he can do it without killing any innocent civilians.

他认为他可以在不杀害任何无辜平民的情况下做到这一点。

Does it, and then it ends up killing some innocent civilians.

这样做，最终会导致一些无辜平民死亡。

That’s one thing.

这是一回事。

But once you’ve done it over and over and over again, and every single time it kills innocent civilians.

但一旦你一遍又一遍地这样做，每一次都会杀死无辜的平民。

And then there’s a wedding and you order a drone bomb strike on a wedding.

然后有一场婚礼，你下令对婚礼进行无人机炸弹袭击。

“No, you murdered those people.

“不，你杀了那些人。

That’s murder in the first degree.

这是一级谋杀。

1:14:50 And so yes, whether you say out loud, “Oh, it sure is a shame that we got to kill all these kids.” When you’re doing it over and over, and you know the action you’re taking is going to kill more kids.

所以，是的，无论你是否大声说：“哦，我们必须杀死所有这些孩子，这确实是一种耻辱。”当你一遍又一遍地这样做时，你知道你正在采取的行动会杀死更多的孩子。

Yeah, it’s a little bit different, but really not that much.

是的，有点不同，但其实没那么大。

It’s still pretty much a…

这仍然是一个……

And then also when you mix in with that, the fact that, I mean, if you go…

然后当你融入其中时，事实上，我的意思是，如果你去……

And I’m not taking an opinion on the word genocide, I don’t even like to get into that conversation.

我对种族灭绝这个词没有任何看法，我什至不喜欢参与这样的对话。

I feel like it just derails it anyway.

我觉得无论如何它都会破坏它。

What Israel’s doing, whether you think it’s a genocide or not, it’s certainly not what most people envision when they hear the word genocide.

以色列正在做的事情，无论你是否认为这是种族灭绝，这肯定不是大多数人听到种族灭绝这个词时所想象的。

But if you could look at South Africa’s case that they promoted at the International Court of Justice, the whole thing is just quotes from Israeli leaders.

但如果你看看南非在国际法院提出的案例，你会发现整件事都只是以色列领导人的引述。

And I’m just saying, by the way, it’s not like they’re always saying, “Oh, it sure is a shame that we had to kill that 8-year-old girl.’ They like half the time they say that when they’re talking to the international community, and then the other half the time they seem to basically be saying, “There’s no such thing as an innocent 8-year-old girl.” And so I guess I just don’t find that argument to be very compelling, especially when the thing has been going on for so long.

我只是想说，顺便说一句，他们并不总是说，“哦，我们不得不杀死那个 8 岁女孩，这确实是一种耻辱。”他们在与国际社会交谈时喜欢一半时间这么说，而另一半时间他们似乎基本上是在说，“世界上不存在所谓无辜的 8 岁女孩。”所以我想我只是觉得这个论点不是很有说服力，尤其是当事情已经持续了这么长时间的时候。

There is some disagreement I have with you there.

我和你之间存在一些分歧。

1:15:58 I think the thing you’re implying is, whenever they state it’s not quite genuine to some degree.

我认为你的意思是，每当他们说这在某种程度上并不完全真实时。

Not [inaudible 01:16:10]-

不 [听不清 01:16:10]-

No, I’m saying it might be genuine by some people.

不，我是说有些人可能是真的。

1:16:09 I’m not saying it’s necessarily not.

我并不是说这一定不是。

I’m saying that when there’s a lot of people who are saying the opposite, it doesn’t seem like it’s consistently genuine from the entire Israeli leadership class.

我想说的是，当很多人都持相反观点时，整个以色列领导阶层的说法似乎并不总是真诚的。

And that even if it is genuine when some people say it, that’s kind of not enough to get away from the fact that…

即使有些人说的是真的，这也不足以摆脱这样的事实……

When Tucker was on Pierce Morgan, he said the thing, he goes, “I don’t like my tax dollars being used to intentionally kill children.” And a lot of people really objected to that word, intentionally, because I think so many of the defenders of Israel fall behind this.

当塔克在皮尔斯摩根的时候，他说过这样的话，他说，“我不喜欢我的税款被用来故意杀害儿童。”很多人确实有意反对这个词，因为我认为很多以色列的捍卫者都支持这一点。

Like, “No, no, no, that’s not intentional, we’re just trying to kill Hamas.” But again, like I said, we would never accept that standard in a domestic murder case.

就像，“不，不，不，那不是故意的，我们只是想杀死哈马斯。”但正如我所说，我们永远不会在家庭谋杀案中接受这一标准。

The thing is that, if you know there are kids there and you know they’re going to die, then that’s intent.

问题是，如果你知道那里有孩子并且知道他们会死，那就是故意的。

I think I agree with you fundamentally because war is hell, and that’s why I’m against war.

我想我从根本上同意你的观点，因为战争是地狱，这就是我反对战争的原因。

1:17:03 But there is a difference.

但有一个区别。

So I think we’re mixing in a lot of things.

所以我认为我们混合了很多东西。

I think you’re fundamentally against war, and that’s why to you, it really doesn’t matter.

我认为你从根本上反对战争，这就是为什么对你来说，这真的不重要。

It is murder.

这是谋杀。

It’s just murder, and we shouldn’t do murder.

这只是谋杀，我们不应该杀人。

And there’s a lot of democracies with colorful flags that justify murder because they’re trying very hard not to kill civilians.

许多民主国家都举着彩色旗帜，为谋杀辩护，因为他们非常努力不杀害平民。

And then when you say you look at the reality of the Obama administration, the entirety of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, you’re murdering civilians.

然后，当你说你看看奥巴马政府的现实，整个伊拉克和阿富汗战争时，你正在谋杀平民。

Yes, you’re trying to kill bad guys, but you’re murdering civilians.

是的，你想杀死坏人，但你却在谋杀平民。

That said, on an ethical consideration on which kind of ideals, ideologies you can build a society after the war.

也就是说，基于道德上的考虑，你可以在战后建立一个什么样的理想、意识形态。

One that even on the surface levels states that the value of every life, of every civilian life is equal and high in value.

即使从表面上看，每个生命、每个平民生命的价值都是平等的，而且价值很高。

That’s a good society.

这就是一个美好的社会。

That’s the concern with extremist ideology that basically is very difficult to build a flourishing society on.

这就是对极端主义意识形态的担忧，基本上很难建立一个繁荣的社会。

But then the argument against that is the one you said, which is, yeah, well, Hamas is really supported now because of the war.

但反对这一点的论点就是你所说的，是的，哈马斯现在因为战争而得到了真正的支持。

Right.

对。

1:18:33 But by the way, I don’t disagree with the first part of your statement there, I just don’t think it’s in conflict with what I’m stating.

但顺便说一句，我并不反对你声明的第一部分，我只是认为它与我所说的并不冲突。

Look, I understand first of all, that there is a difference between the way you’re going to say prosecute crime domestically within your own country, and the way you can prosecute crime or a war between two different countries, right?

听着，我首先明白，在自己的国家/地区起诉犯罪的方式与在两个不同国家之间起诉犯罪或战争的方式之间存在差异，对吧？

Maybe it’s not exactly the same.

也许并不完全相同。

You don’t have cops that you can just send in, you can’t arrest somebody and put them on trial.

你没有可以派去的警察，你不能逮捕某人并审判他们。

It’s not the same, so fine you could say.

不一样，所以你可以说很好。

But the point I’m making is more like, I’m just saying how we would think about these things in a domestic setting.

但我要表达的观点更像是，我只是说我们在家庭环境中会如何思考这些事情。

We’re talking about morality here.

我们在这里谈论道德。

And morality by its very nature, it rises above logistics, it rises above nationalities, or governments, or borders, or any of those things, what’s right or wrong.

道德就其本质而言，它超越了物流，它超越了国籍、政府、边界或任何这些事情，无论是对还是错。

If it’s wrong to rape somebody in New Jersey, it’s also wrong to rape somebody in Central Africa.

如果在新泽西强奸某人是错误的，那么在中非强奸某人也是错误的。

1:19:35 And so I’m just saying you’re committing the same act that we would consider murder in the first degree here.

所以我只是说你犯下的行为与我们在这里视为一级谋杀的行为相同。

And then just to go one step further, I think particularly part of the reasons why people have different attitudes about the way two nations fight, what we think of as war versus what we think as say a policing issue.

更进一步，我认为这尤其是人们对两国作战方式、我们所认为的战争与我们所认为的警务问题持不同态度的部分原因。

We would never accept the idea that, the logic that’s used in wars, used in World War II, even used in Iraq and Afghanistan, especially used in the war in Gaza.

我们永远不会接受这样的想法，即在战争中使用的逻辑，在第二次世界大战中使用的逻辑，甚至在伊拉克和阿富汗使用的逻辑，特别是在加沙战争中使用的逻辑。

If there was a bad guy, even a guy who had done something like October 7th, which we have school shooters and things like that here.

如果有一个坏人，即使是一个做了类似 10 月 7 日之类事情的人，我们这里也有校园枪击案之类的事情。

If there was an active duty school shooter, and he’s in a school shooting people, and we know he is already killed 25 people-

如果有一名现役学校枪手，他在学校里向人开枪，而我们知道他已经杀死了 25 人——

Blow up the school.

炸毁学校。

Blow up the school.

炸毁学校。

1:20:24 Hey, he’s using him as human shields.

嘿，他把他当作人体盾牌。

No, it’s not our fault.

不，这不是我们的错。

You see, listen, those deaths [inaudible 01:20:31] while tragic were the school shooter’s fault because he used all these people as human shields.

你看，听着，这些死亡 [听不清 01:20:31] 虽然是悲剧性的，但都是校园枪击案凶手的错，因为他利用所有这些人作为人体盾牌。

We would never for a goddam second if those were our kids in there, we’d never accept that excuse.

如果那是我们的孩子，我们绝对不会接受这个借口。

We would be like, “What?

我们会说，“什么？

Yeah, that guy was bad.

是的，那个人很坏。

You still had an obligation to do something else.” That was never accepted.

你还有义务做别的事。”但这从未被接受。

Now, we may look at things differently in the context of a war, but also…

现在，我们可能会在战争的背景下以不同的方式看待事物，但……

By the way, I’m not sure I completely do, but typically speaking, when people think of wars, they’re thinking of this government versus this government, this military versus this military.

顺便说一句，我不确定我完全同意，但通常来说，当人们想到战争时，他们会想到这个政府与这个政府，这个军队与这个军队。

That’s not the situation here.

这里的情况并非如此。

1:21:05 So while Israel is saying, “Hey, they’re using human shields.” And that is true, I think, to some degree.

因此，当以色列说：“嘿，他们正在使用人体盾牌。”我认为，在某种程度上确实如此。

I think the Israelis overplay it a little bit, but there have been, I think, clear instances where Hamas is using human shields.

我认为以色列人有点夸大其词，但我认为，哈马斯使用人体盾牌的明显例子已经存在。

But it’s kind of a flip side of a different point.

但这是不同观点的另一面。

And the other point is like, “Oh, well why aren’t they using their army, or their air force, or their navy?” Oh, right, because they don’t have any of those.

另一点是，“哦，那么他们为什么不使用陆军、空军或海军呢？”哦，对了，因为他们没有这些。

Oh, that’s right, so you are fighting a war against people that don’t have a government because you’ve denied them their right to have one.

哦，没错，所以你们正在对那些没有政府的人进行一场战争，因为你们剥夺了他们拥有政府的权利。

And so that’s the thing where I do think if you’ve occupied the place since 1967, you almost now take on an obligation that you kind of have to almost conduct this as a police matter.

所以我确实认为，如果你自 1967 年以来就占据了这个地方，那么你现在几乎承担了一种义务，你几乎必须将这件事当作警察事务来处理。

Because now we are getting awfully close to the scenario that we just laid out.

因为现在我们已经非常接近我们刚刚提出的场景了。

We’re like, “Oh, there’s a school shooter, blow up the school.”

我们就像，“哦，有一个学校枪手，炸毁学校。”

It’s difficult to have a discussion about ethics when you’re talking about war because really at the core of it all war is immoral.

当你谈论战争时，很难讨论道德，因为实际上所有战争的核心都是不道德的。

Yeah.

是的。

1:22:11 I mean, by its very definition, it’s innocent people dying almost always, right?

我的意思是，根据其定义，几乎总是无辜的人死去，对吗？

It’s difficult to pick which is the just war.

很难选出哪一场是正义的战争。

1:22:17 And even World War II because of the complexities that you mentioned is difficult because it’s Stalin.

即使是第二次世界大战，因为你提到的复杂性，也很困难，因为是斯大林。

Well, as my buddy Daryl Cooper demonstrated, I think we can have a reasonable civil discussion about these things without anybody blowing their lid.

好吧，正如我的好友达里尔·库珀（Daryl Cooper）所证明的那样，我认为我们可以就这些事情进行合理的文明讨论，而不会有人揭穿。

1:22:27 We can all just talk.

我们都可以谈谈。

I mean, World War II it’s the third rail, like nothing else.

我的意思是，第二次世界大战是第三条铁路，与众不同。

Really, World War II and the Civil Rights Movement, I think are the third rails of American politics, if you have any type of view that is not the approved authorized view of how these events went, you’re in a lot of trouble.

确实，我认为第二次世界大战和民权运动是美国政治的第三条轨道，如果你对这些事件的进展有任何不被认可的授权观点，那么你就会遇到很多麻烦。

If you wanted to compare Hitler to Stalin’s body count, at that time Stalin was already a genocidal maniac, and Hitler had not gone genocidal yet.

如果你要把希特勒和斯大林的尸体数量相比较，那时斯大林已经是一个种族灭绝狂人了，而希特勒还没有走向种族灭绝。

So there is a weird dynamic there.

所以那里有一种奇怪的动态。

Now, in hindsight it looks a little bit better because you go, “Yeah, yeah, yeah, but he went so genocidal at the end there.” But that’s a weird decision at the time to ally with Joseph Stalin when he had already done the worst things that Joseph Stalin had done, or at least a lot of the worst things he had done.

现在，事后看来，情况看起来好一些，因为你会说，“是啊，是啊，是啊，但他最后变得如此种族灭绝。”但在当时与约瑟夫·斯大林结盟是一个奇怪的决定，因为他已经做了约瑟夫·斯大林做过的最糟糕的事情，或者至少是他做过的很多最糟糕的事情。

I guess, there were a lot more in the war as well.

我想，战争中还有更多的事情。

I was curious though you didn’t mention Mao, it’s that funding again.

我很好奇，虽然你没有提到毛泽东，但又是资金。

1:23:37 Because he did even worse than Stalin.

因为他做得比斯大林还要糟糕。

So is that the second thing?

那么这是第二件事吗？

I’m not sure that’s officially known.

我不确定这是否是官方已知的。

1:23:43 Do we actually know that Mao killed anybody?

我们真的知道毛泽东杀过人吗？

I mean, all right, I’ll say it.

我的意思是，好吧，我会说的。

Here we go, I’m going to blow my funding.

开始吧，我要花光我的资金了。

Bad guy that Mao Zedong, do not care for him.

毛泽东那个坏家伙，别理他。

I think the Chinese government officially says, they have an actual percentage that he was 70% correct.

我认为中国政府官方说，他们有一个实际百分比，他是 70% 正确的。

Is that true?

这是真的吗？

Yeah.

是的。

They actually broke it down to that 70%?

他们真的把它分解到了70%？

1:24:03 But the 30% was being the worst mass murderer in human history.

但那 30% 的人却是人类历史上最严重的大屠杀凶手。

That’s such a communist thing to do.

这就是共产主义要做的事情。

Yeah, we measured it scientifically.

是的，我们科学地测量了它。

We measured it, and perfectly, scientifically figured it out.

我们测量了它，并且完美地、科学地弄清楚了它。

Since you mentioned Daryl Cooper, you’re friends with him, can you tell me about him?

既然你提到了达里尔·库珀，你就是他的朋友，你能告诉我关于他的事吗？

1:24:15 And tell me about the whole saga about where he got attacked after the talker interview?

告诉我整个故事，关于他在谈话者采访后受到攻击的地方？

Yeah, yeah.

是啊是啊。

1:24:24 So I was just a big fan, and still I’m really just a big fan of him.

所以我只是他的忠实粉丝，而且我仍然是他的忠实粉丝。

We chatted a few times and I interviewed him on my podcast, and I consider us friends.

我们聊了几次，我在播客上采访了他，我认为我们是朋友。

Martyr Made Podcast is his show and it’s just phenomenal.

Martyr Made 播客是他的节目，非常棒。

1:24:43 I found out about him from, my guy is Scott Horton, who’s a very close friend of mine, and I think the best person on war in the country, he’s just a genius.

我是从我的朋友斯科特·霍顿（Scott Horton）那里了解到他的，他是我非常亲密的朋友，我认为他是这个国家最好的战争专家，他是个天才。

He runs the Libertarian Institute, and he’s also been the editor at antiwar.com for many years now.

他经营着自由主义研究所，并且多年来一直担任 antiwar.com 的编辑。

So he first told me about Daryl, and what I knew of Daryl was just that he did a podcast with Jocko.

所以他首先告诉我关于达里尔的事，而我对达里尔的了解只是他和乔科一起做了一个播客。

And so they did their show together, and I listened to a couple episodes of it and really enjoyed it.

所以他们一起表演了他们的节目，我听了几集并且非常喜欢它。

1:25:20 And then it was Scott who was like, “Dude, you got to check out his podcast Martyr Mate, it’s the best history podcast.” The first thing I listened to of his was the Fear & Loathing in the New Jerusalem.

然后斯科特说，“伙计，你必须看看他的播客《烈士伴侣》，这是最好的历史播客。”我听到的第一件事是他的《新耶路撒冷的恐惧与厌恶》。

He’s done a few things on Twitter where he’s kind of shit posting and stuff like that.

他在推特上做了一些事情，比如发布一些垃圾之类的东西。

But when you listen to his work, when he lays down like, I’m going to take years to put together a long presentation on the history of this conflict or the history of this.

但当你听他的作品时，当他躺下时，我会花几年的时间来整理一份关于这场冲突或这场冲突的历史的长篇演讲。

He has the utmost responsibility in the way that he tells the story and the way he presents it.

他对讲述故事和呈现故事的方式负有最大的责任。

I cannot understand how anyone would listen to his work, and come away with the feeling that this guy is any type of Jew hater, or Nazi apologist, or anything like that.

我无法理解为什么有人会听他的作品，然后感觉这个人是任何类型的犹太人仇恨者，或纳粹辩护者，或类似的东西。

It is just not who he is.

他不是这样的人。

1:26:08 What Daryl said on Tucker’s show was that, he goes, “I’ll say this to be provocative sometimes to kind of rib my buddy Jocko, who’s like Anglo-Saxon.

达里尔在塔克的节目中说的是，他说，“我有时会这么说，有点挑衅我的朋友乔科，他就像盎格鲁撒克逊人。

So this kind of gets to him.” And he goes, “And I’m being a bit hyperbolic when I say this, but I’ll sometimes say that Winston Churchill was the chief villain of World War II.” Now, he didn’t commit the most atrocities, he wasn’t the worst person there, but he was a guy who was hell-bent on kind of this thing becoming what it ultimately became.

所以这对他来说是一种影响。”他说：“我这么说有点夸张，但我有时会说温斯顿·丘吉尔是第二次世界大战的头号恶棍。”现在，他没有犯下最多的暴行，他也不是那里最糟糕的人，但他是一个一心想让这件事成为它最终的样子的人。

Whereas this might’ve just been an invasion of Poland, this may not have been this whole cascade of the worst thing that ever happened in human history.

虽然这可能只是对波兰的入侵，但这可能并不是人类历史上发生过的最糟糕的事情。

1:26:43 Now, the retelling of that is always, people go, “He said Churchill was the chief villain of the war.” But it’s like, no, not exactly.

现在，人们总是这样重述，“他说丘吉尔是战争的头号恶棍。”但这就像，不，不完全是。

You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思？

He’s making a point, and I think he’s putting out right now a long series on World War II, he just put the prologue to it out, which was excellent, by the way.

他正在表达一个观点，我认为他现在正在推出一个关于第二次世界大战的长篇系列，他刚刚推出了序言，顺便说一句，这非常棒。

Listen, after it’s out, maybe I’ll come back and regret saying this, but I don’t think I will.

听着，在它出来之后，也许我会回来后悔说这句话，但我不认为我会。

I really have trust that Darryl will handle this responsibly.

我真的相信达里尔会负责任地处理这件事。

And in fact, I think that he might be…

事实上，我认为他可能是……

And not because he’s involved, this is his angle or what he’s attempting to do.

并不是因为他参与其中，这是他的角度或他试图做的事情。

I think just that he’s going to tell the truth and the truth will take you where it takes you.

我认为他会说实话，而真相会带你去往你想去的地方。

I think he’s actually going to probably serve a function of bringing a lot of those types kind of back to reality.

我认为他实际上可能会起到将许多此类类型带回现实的作用。

If you think he’s going to be excusing the atrocities of the Nazis in this thing, I don’t think you’re going to be happy with the end product, if that’s what you are coming into it for.

如果你认为他会原谅纳粹在这件事上的暴行，我认为你不会对最终产品感到满意，如果这就是你参与其中的目的。

Okay.

好的。

1:27:48 One thing I want to say is, I think calling Daryl Nazi and Nazi sympathizer is just wrong, and it does a lot of damage.

我想说的一件事是，我认为称达里尔为纳粹和纳粹同情者是错误的，而且会造成很大的损害。

I think he has a lot of value to his podcast.

我认为他的播客有很大的价值。

I think there’s several things to sort of make very clear.

我认为有几件事需要澄清。

I think he’s a really interesting guy, I’m sure I’ll talk to him in the future.

我认为他是一个非常有趣的人，我确信我将来会和他交谈。

But I just want to lay on the table that I think what he’s saying about Churchill is just dead wrong.

但我只想坦白说，我认为他对丘吉尔的评价是完​​全错误的。

I think legitimately that statement, removing the trolling from it, is the revisionist history statement that I think is wrong, and the invasion of the Soviet Union would’ve happened no matter what.

我认为，除去其中的恶搞，该声明是合理的，我认为这是错误的修正主义历史声明，无论如何，对苏联的入侵都会发生。

And possibly, which I’m actually learning a lot more, Stalin could have gone the other way as well.

斯大林也可能走另一条路，我实际上学到了更多。

That was going to be a global war, no matter what.

无论如何，这都将是一场全球战争。

Churchill, the role of Churchill, we can debate.

丘吉尔，丘吉尔的角色，我们可以争论。

And I still don’t think he was a main instigator of that expansion there, there’s a lot of historical documentation of that.

我仍然不认为他是那里扩张的主要煽动者，有很多历史记录。

Well, look, that’s a fair debate to have, and it’d be interesting to see you two kind of talk about that.

好吧，听着，这是一场公平的辩论，看到你们两个谈论这个问题会很有趣。

1:28:43 Or maybe not even debate it, but just have a conversation about that, that would be great.

或者甚至不进行辩论，而只是就此进行对话，那就太好了。

I think the broader point you’re making, I mean, there’s just a lot of trivialization of the World War II that happens in the West, in the United States especially.

我认为你所提出的更广泛的观点是，西方，尤其是美国，对第二次世界大战发生了很多琐碎的事情。

1:28:51 And that’s used by neocons by warmongers to sort of shift-

新保守派利用这一点，被战争贩子用来进行某种转变——

I’ve done a bunch of Israel-Palestine debates, I don’t think I’ve ever done one where World War II wasn’t invoked.

我做过很多以色列和巴勒斯坦的辩论，我想我从来没有做过一场不涉及第二次世界大战的辩论。

1:29:10 Well, I mean Dresden, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, so you’re going to tell me it’s not okay.

好吧，我指的是德累斯顿、广岛和长崎，所以你会告诉我这是不行的。

And immediately, if you just look at it like that, let’s say the official narrative is 100% true in World War II, let’s even say every aspect of the official narrative is really true.

立即，如果你这样看的话，假设二战中的官方叙述是100%真实的，甚至可以说官方叙述的每个方面都是真实的。

The lesson of World War II is that we should have gone to war sooner, which is essentially the dominant mainstream narrative that Chamberlain is the failure.

第二次世界大战的教训是，我们应该早点参战，这基本上是主流观点，认为张伯伦是失败者。

That was the problem, the appeasement.

这就是问题所在，绥靖政策。

Churchill was the solution.

丘吉尔就是解决方案。

If only Chamberlain had been Churchill, or if only we had gone to war with Germany and whatever in 1933, it would’ve been better.

如果张伯伦是丘吉尔，或者如果我们在 1933 年与德国开战等等，那就更好了。

Okay, let’s say all of that’s true.

好吧，假设这一切都是真的。

1:29:58 It still doesn’t follow from that, that therefore in every situation appeasement is wrong, and aggression is good.

但这仍然不能得出结论，因此在任何情况下绥靖都是错误的，而侵略是好的。

It doesn’t follow that, if that’s the only lesson of history.

如果这是历史的唯一教训，那就不成立了。

And that now it’s just okay to slaughter civilians.

现在屠杀平民是可以的。

It’s okay to go to total war against a civilian population because this one time it was necessary.

对平民发动全面战争是可以的，因为这一次是必要的。

Bobby Kennedy said this to me again, somebody who I really do love and admire in many ways, and I’m glad he’s the health secretary.

鲍比·肯尼迪再次对我说了这句话，他在很多方面都是我真正喜爱和钦佩的人，我很高兴他是卫生部长。

But I remember him evoking the Nazis and making a comparison between Hamas and the Nazis.

但我记得他提到了纳粹，并将哈马斯和纳粹进行了比较。

And you’re like, “Dude, Hamas doesn’t even control Gaza really.

你会说，“伙计，哈马斯甚至没有真正控制加沙。

The Nazis had most of Europe at one point.

纳粹一度占领了欧洲大部分地区。

This is just not an apples to apples conversation.

这不是一场同类的对话。

You can’t even compare the two in terms of what type of menace or threat they are to the world.”

你甚至无法比较两者对世界的威胁或威胁类型。”

1:30:45 I mean, sure, maybe if Hamas had a lot of power, they’d use it in a bad way.

我的意思是，当然，也许如果哈马斯拥有很大的权力，他们就会以不好的方式使用它。

But that’s true with some homeless guy on the street too, but he doesn’t have that power.

但街上的一些无家可归的人也是如此，但他没有那种权力。

So what are we talking about here?

那么我们在这里谈论什么呢？

And so I do think that the way the World War II narrative is weaponized has been, even if World War II itself was necessary and just, the way that, that’s been weaponized over the years has led to just countless catastrophes.

因此，我确实认为，即使第二次世界大战本身是必要且公正的，但多年来的武器化叙事方式却导致了无数灾难。

You know what I mean, I guess it’s just in some ways there might be something positive about the fact that everybody’s always called Hitler if they’re bad.

你知道我的意思，我想从某些方面来说，如果每个人都是坏人，他们总是被称为希特勒，这一事实可能有一些积极的一面。

You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思？

Because we make Hitler the face of what is evil eternally or something.

因为我们让希特勒成为永恒邪恶之类的面孔。

He really does play the role of the devil in our society in a strange way.

他确实以一种奇怪的方式在我们的社会中扮演着魔鬼的角色。

But there is Saddam was the next Hitler, and Gaddafi was the Hitler, and Bashar Assad was the next Hitler.

但萨达姆是下一个希特勒，卡扎菲是希特勒，巴沙尔阿萨德是下一个希特勒。

Trump.

王牌。

Trump is Hitler, Hamas is Hitler.

特朗普就是希特勒，哈马斯就是希特勒。

1:31:48 Except the problem is that none of them are Hitler.

但问题是他们都不是希特勒。

None of them are even close, it’s just totally different.

它们都不是很接近，只是完全不同。

Yeah.

是的。

1:31:56 And the amount of power is really important.

功率的大小确实很重要。

It matters how much destructive power you have within you, the capabilities.

重要的是你内心有多少破坏力、能力。

But every major superpower with nuclear weapons has the potential to be that destructive, it is just unproductive to-

但每个拥有核武器的主要超级大国都有可能具有如此大的破坏性，但这样做是徒劳的——

And yet the only ones who ever have dropped them are us.

然而，唯一抛弃它们的人就是我们。

1:32:10 I was arguing with one guy on a podcast, and he said that, he goes, “You can’t allow dictators to have nuclear weapons because they might use them.” And I was like, “But we are the only ones who ever used them.” And he goes, “Ah, come on, that’s naïve,” or something.

我在播客上与一个人争论，他说，“你不能允许独裁者拥有核武器，因为他们可能会使用核武器。”我当时想，“但我们是唯一使用过它们的人。”他说，“啊，得了吧，这太天真了”之类的。

And you’re like, “Wait, what?

你会说，“等等，什么？

Shouldn’t that be pointed out?” And I don’t know.

难道不应该指出来吗？”我不知道。

I mean, I’d prefer Iran not get nuclear weapons.

我的意思是，我希望伊朗不要拥有核武器。

I think we’re pushing them to probably want to pursue that.

我认为我们正在推动他们可能想要追求这一目标。

And I also think there’s been a lot of propaganda about the nuclear program in Iran.

我还认为有很多关于伊朗核计划的宣传。

I know at least since the ’90s, according to Netanyahu, they’ve been five years away.

根据内塔尼亚胡的说法，我知道至少自 90 年代以来，他们已经离我们还有五年了。

Yeah.

是的。

1:32:53 I think there’s a lot of warmongering going on about all parts of the world, Iran especially.

我认为世界各地都有很多好战行为，尤其是伊朗。

I have a lot of friends from Iran, it’s one of the most beautiful cultures in the world, this just superpower of intellect and culture.

我有很多来自伊朗的朋友，这是世界上最美丽的文化之一，这是智力和文化的超级大国。

And it’s really sad and disappointing that the regime is basically suppressing that culture.

令人悲伤和失望的是，该政权基本上压制了这种文化。

You have to always remember, there’s parts of the world where the people are beautiful, and we don’t get to see it because of the suppression, the lack of freedom.

你必须永远记住，世界上有些地方的人们很美丽，但由于压制和缺乏自由，我们看不到它们。

Yeah.

是的。

1:33:24 No, absolutely.

不，绝对是。

So all that said, there does seem to be a lot of hatred of Jews on the X.

话虽如此，X 上似乎确实存在很多对犹太人的仇恨。

1:33:27 How much of it do you think is actual hate of Jews?

您认为其中有多少是真正对犹太人的仇恨？

And how much of it’s just trolls and grifters and conspiracy nerds just cosplaying as Nazis?

其中有多少只是巨魔、骗子和阴谋书呆子扮演的纳粹分子？

It’s really hard to tell.

这真的很难说。

1:33:49 I mean, I don’t know.

我的意思是，我不知道。

I don’t know how you even figure it out.

我不知道你是怎么想出来的。

And I think this is one of the problems with outrage culture.

我认为这是愤怒文化的问题之一。

It’s kind of one of the unintended consequences of it, is that now you just have no way of knowing who’s saying this just to get a rise out of you, or who really sincerely means it, or who’s some version of both.

这是它的意想不到的后果之一，就是现在你无法知道谁说这句话只是为了让你生气，或者谁是真心实意的，或者谁是两者的某种版本。

You see, there’s so many weird dynamics because there’s no question, I see it all the time.

你看，有很多奇怪的动态，因为毫无疑问，我一直看到它。

I mean, I see a level of Jew hatred on Twitter that I’ve never seen before in my own replies and other people’s things.

我的意思是，我在 Twitter 上看到了对犹太人的仇恨程度，这是我以前在自己的回复和其他人的帖子中从未见过的。

And that’s interesting.

这很有趣。

First off, you’re like, “Okay, what’s going on here?”

首先，你会想，“好吧，这是怎么回事？”

Interesting sociological phenomenon.

有趣的社会学现象。

1:34:35 Yeah.

是的。

Right.

正确的。

1:34:37 Yeah.

是的。

Concerning and troubling and all of that stuff.

令人担忧、令人不安以及所有这些事情。

But then you also see people who will be asking completely legitimate questions, or making completely legitimate points that are called antisemitic.

但你也会看到有人提出完全合法的问题，或者提出完全合法的观点，这些观点被称为反犹太主义。

And then that, I think, does not help the dynamic at all because now you’re almost like, number one, you make the word meaningless, you take away the disincentive for anybody else to actually be a Jew hater.

然后，我认为，这对动态没有任何帮助，因为现在你几乎就像，第一，你让这个词变得毫无意义，你消除了其他人真正成为犹太人仇恨者的抑制因素。

I mean, I think there’s a lot going on.

我的意思是，我认为发生了很多事情。

1:35:08 One of the things is that for young white men in America today, they’ve lived through the years of real insane progressive woke-sim.

其中之一是，对于当今美国的年轻白人来说，他们经历了真正疯狂的进步觉醒模拟岁月。

I’m 42, it’s just a different thing for me, I come from a different culture in a different time.

我今年 42 岁，这对我来说是不同的事情，我来自不同时代的不同文化。

That just simply was not the case that when I was a teenager, or when I was in college, or when I was in my early 20s, that the school, the faculty, the politicians, Hollywood, all of them embraced racialism.

事实并非如此，当我十几岁的时候，或者当我在大学里，或者当我20岁出头的时候，学校、教师、政客、好莱坞，所有人都拥抱种族主义。

They all said, “We’re playing identity politics, and it is okay to dice people up along these racial lines,” and have that first and foremost in your mind.

他们都说，“我们正在玩身份政治，按照种族界限来划分人们是可以的”，并且首先要牢记这一点。

1:35:51 And there is this weird feeling over this last year and now with Trump being reelected, that we snapped our fingers and woke-sim and went away or something like that.

去年，现在随着特朗普再次当选，我们有一种奇怪的感觉，我们打了个响指，醒来后就离开了，或者类似的事情。

But these guys still came up in this era, and it was always the case that one of the dangerous elements of playing this game was like, hey, you think you’re going to play this and that young straight white men aren’t going to start playing this game too?

但这些家伙仍然出现在这个时代，而且玩这个游戏的危险因素之一总是这样，嘿，你认为你会玩这个，而年轻的白人直男也不会开始玩这个游戏？

Why the hell would they not?

他们为什么不呢？

Why would they just accept, we’ll just sit here while everybody else is allowed to have a racial identity, and a grievance about it.

为什么他们会接受，我们就坐在这里，而其他人都被允许拥有种族身份，并对此表示不满。

And yet we’ll be the one group who, yeah, could just stomp all over us, we’re the bad guys.

然而，我们将成为一群人，是的，可以践踏我们，我们是坏人。

And that’s part of the reason why I always opposed the woken sanity.

这就是我总是反对唤醒理智的部分原因。

1:36:37 I mean, first and foremost, just because I think it’s wrong, I think it’s wrong to be shitty to people based on their racial group, and that includes white people too.

我的意思是，首先也是最重要的，只是因为我认为这是错误的，我认为基于种族群体而对人卑鄙是错误的，这也包括白人。

But then also you’re like, you don’t see that this is going to result in something bad.

但你也会想，你看不到这会导致不好的结果。

So there’s that.

就是这样。

And what’s weird to me is that, I guess it’s because a lot of the people who are the most upset about the antisemitism also happen to be supporting Israel, there’s a big correlation between that.

对我来说奇怪的是，我想这是因为许多对反犹太主义最不满的人也恰好支持以色列，这之间有很大的相关性。

But clearly it’s a huge factor in this.

但显然这是一个重要因素。

It’s not a coincidence that all of this rose up while Israel is just conducting this brutal campaign with our weapons and money.

当以色列正在用我们的武器和金钱进行这场残酷的行动时，所有这一切的发生并非巧合。

1:37:16 And so I always think with these things, whether it’s with Putin, or with Al-Qaeda, or with whoever, and I’m not saying the guy who posts Jew-hating stuff on Twitter is the same as them.

所以我总是思考这些事情，无论是普京，还是基地组织，或者任何人，我并不是说在 Twitter 上发布仇恨犹太人内容的人与他们是同一个人。

I’m just saying in all of these situations, you always kind of got to separate, what are legitimate grievances and what are, okay, you’re wrong on that and you shouldn’t be doing that.

我只是说，在所有这些情况下，你总是需要分开，什么是合理的不满，什么是，好吧，你在这一点上是错的，你不应该这样做。

So it’s pretty easy for me, if I listen to the Putin interview with Tucker, I thought his whole 30 minute opening thing was horrible and just kind of stupid, especially when you’re talking to Tucker Carlson.

所以这对我来说很容易，如果我听普京对塔克的采访，我认为他整个 30 分钟的开场白很可怕，而且有点愚蠢，尤其是当你和塔克·卡尔森交谈时。

This is for an American audience.

这是针对美国观众的。

You know how much that does not resonate with Americans being like, “We have a historic claim over another.” Our entire society is founded on, we think that’s bullshit.

你知道，这与美国人的“我们对另一个人拥有历史性的主张”之类的说法不产生共鸣。我们整个社会的基础都是，我们认为那是胡说八道。

That’s the entire history of our society.

这就是我们社会的全部历史。

It’s like, nah, it doesn’t matter.

就像，不，没关系。

Sorry.

对不起。

1:38:08 Literally read the Declaration of Independence, it just refutes everything Vladimir Putin said in the first 30 minutes.

从字面上看《独立宣言》，它只是反驳了弗拉基米尔·普京在前30分钟所说的一切。

Our view of the world is that God wants us to be free, and we get to overthrow governments if they’re infringing on our rights.

我们对世界的看法是，上帝希望我们自由，如果政府侵犯我们的权利，我们就可以推翻他们。

So that was stupid.

所以那是愚蠢的。

But then when he is talking about NATO enlargement, and bringing Ukraine into the American Military Alliance, you’re like, “Okay, he’s got a legitimate point there.

但当他谈论北约东扩以及将乌克兰纳入美国军事联盟时，你会想，“好吧，他的观点是有道理的。

We would not allow one of our neighbors to be brought into China or Russia’s military alliance.” And so likewise, when it comes to those guys, I do think that, look, it is just true.

我们不会允许我们的邻国之一被纳入中国或俄罗斯的军事联盟。”同样，当谈到这些人时，我确实认为，看，这是真的。

It is the case that America has fought many wars over the last seven years with Israel playing a very influential role in us fighting those wars.

事实是，美国在过去七年里打了很多场战争，以色列在我们打这些战争中发挥了非常有影响力的作用。

And this was a scheme that was cooked up by the neoconservatives and the [inaudible 01:39:03] in Israel that we would go through this path.

这是以色列的新保守派和[听不清 01:39:03] 策划的一个计划，我们将走这条路。

But this has been confirmed by four Star General Wesley Clark.

但这一点已经得到了四星将军韦斯利·克拉克的证实。

He literally said, “It was a study paid for by the Israelis that we were going to topple seven countries in five years.” And we didn’t get there in five years, but we’ve made attempts to topple all of those countries since then.

他字面意思是：“这是以色列人出资进行的一项研究，我们将在五年内推翻七个国家。”我们在五年内没有达到这一目标，但从那时起我们一直在尝试推翻所有这些国家。

1:39:19 You see Trump’s bombing the Houthis because they’re pissed off about Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians, and so they’re trying to shut down their straits or whatever.

你看到特朗普轰炸胡塞武装，因为他们对以色列对待巴勒斯坦人的方式感到愤怒，所以他们试图关闭他们的海峡或其他什么。

So we’re just bombing another group on behalf of Israel.

所以我们只是代表以色列轰炸另一个组织。

And if you really are concerned about the rise of Jew hatred, I would say, look, sometimes people would argue, the thing I said in the beginning about the terrorists don’t hate us for our freedom, they hate us because we’re over there.

如果你真的担心犹太人仇恨的上升，我会说，看，有时人们会争论，我一开始所说的关于恐怖分子不是因为我们的自由而恨我们，他们恨我们是因为我们在那里。

And people would say, “That’s just what Osama Bin Laden says.” He just says he hates us for our military, but he really just hates us because he’s an Islamist and we’re free people or whatever.

人们会说：“奥萨马·本·拉登就是这么说的。”他只是说他讨厌我们的军队，但他实际上只是讨厌我们，因为他是伊斯兰主义者，而我们是自由人或其他什么。

And you’d be like, “Okay, well even if that’s what’s in his heart, that sure is his recruiting shtick.

你可能会说，“好吧，即使他心里是这么想的，那也确实是他的招聘技巧。

That sure is how he gets other people to blow themselves up.” And so even if you want to say, which might very well be the case, that some of these people just hate Jews, and it wouldn’t matter if Israel was at war with Gaza or not.

这肯定是他如何让其他人引爆自己的。”因此，即使你想说（很可能是这种情况），其中一些人只是讨厌犹太人，而以色列是否与加沙交战并不重要。

It’s like, okay, but that sure is their recruiting shtick.

就像，好吧，但这确实是他们的招聘技巧。

That sure is how they get other people to go look at what these Jews are doing in our foreign policy.

这肯定是他们如何让其他人去看看这些犹太人在我们的外交政策中所做的事情。

1:40:16 So I don’t know.

所以我不知道。

There’s a lot going on.

发生了很多事情。

I think racialism of all different forms is stupid and wrong.

我认为各种不同形式的种族主义都是愚蠢和错误的。

It always just leads to sloppy thinking and bad results, it’s always kind of ugly.

它总是会导致草率的思考和糟糕的结果，它总是有点丑陋。

And then weirdly, it also always ends up hurting the person, it’s not good for you, it’s not good for your soul.

然后奇怪的是，它最终也总是会伤害这个人，这对你没有好处，这对你的灵魂没有好处。

So I don’t like seeing that stuff.

所以我不喜欢看到那些东西。

I was saying before about there’s this hierarchy of outrage that you got to have in order to think and act, you have to kind of put these together.

我之前说过，为了思考和行动，你必须有这种愤怒的等级，你必须将它们放在一起。

It’s something that, despite being described as a self-hating Jew, I am really not.

尽管我被描述为一个自我憎恨的犹太人，但我实际上不是。

I love Jewish people, I love Jewish culture.

我爱犹太人，我爱犹太文化。

I’ve benefited a lot from it.

我从中受益匪浅。

It’s in many ways made me the person I am, and I think it’s influenced some of the best parts of me.

它在很多方面造就了我现在的样子，我认为它影响了我一些最好的部分。

1:41:10 But there is a whininess and a hysteria about this stuff that I think is just not healthy.

但我认为这种东西有一种抱怨和歇斯底里的感觉，这是不健康的。

I think it’s not good.

我认为这不太好。

I’ve told many Jewish friends and family this privately, but the way I look at it is like, I’m an American, this has been a wonderful country to be Jewish.

我私下告诉过许多犹太朋友和家人，但我的看法是，我是美国人，对于犹太人来说，这是一个美好的国家。

Jews are doing exceptionally well in this country.

犹太人在这个国家过得非常好。

We are 2% of the population or so, and we are thriving by any metric.

我们约占总人口的 2%，而且无论从哪个标准来看，我们都在蓬勃发展。

And if mean stuff on Twitter is our great burden to bear, I don’t think we should be talking about it like we’re in the middle of Nazi Germany or something like that.

如果推特上的恶意内容是我们要承受的巨大负担，我认为我们不应该像身处纳粹德国或类似的地方那样谈论它。

So I do think people get hysterical about it.

所以我确实认为人们对此感到歇斯底里。

In a way that’s completely not productive.

在某种程度上，这是完全没有生产力的。

1:41:52 But to me, I think of the Jew-hating nerds and trolls on Twitter as just the other side of the woke.

但对我来说，我认为推特上那些仇恨犹太人的书呆子和巨魔只是觉醒的另一面。

1:42:00 …

……

And trolls on Twitter is just the other side of the woke leftist.

推特上的喷子只是觉醒的左派的另一面。

I kind of get that, yeah.

我有点明白了，是的。

It’s almost like a response, like you were saying, it’s just that the woke weren’t censored and the response to the woke was censored.

这几乎就像一个回应，就像你说的那样，只是觉醒者没有被审查，而对觉醒者的反应也被审查了。

1:42:05 And now that on X, they’re less censored or not censored, you just get to see it.

现在，在 X 上，它们的审查较少或没有审查，你就可以看到它。

And they’re both annoying.

他们都很烦人。

I agree with that.

我同意这一点。

They don’t really help the discussion on Israel, they don’t help the discussion on anything.

他们并没有真正帮助关于以色列的讨论，他们没有帮助任何事情的讨论。

1:42:24 In fact, one of the reasons I stay away from that discussion of Israel, which I think is nuanced and really complicated in the way that we’ve been discussing, in order to have an intellectual exploration of ideas, you have to be able to misstep and try ideas for size.

事实上，我远离对以色列的讨论的原因之一是，我认为我们一直在讨论的方式是微妙且非常复杂的，为了对想法进行智力探索，你必须能够犯错并尝试大小的想法。

And if I’m going to be punished severely by these…

如果我要受到这些严厉的惩罚……

I’m okay being criticized.

被批评我没关系。

But when they’re low brain takes that are just lying about me en masse, you get a huge amount of engagement just because you’re thinking out loud and reading history and it’s just annoying.

但是，当他们的低智水平只是关于我的谎言时，你会因为大声思考和阅读历史而获得大量的参与度，这很烦人。

1:43:05 And by the way, I’m really interested about World War II, probably in the way that Dan Carlin and Darryl Cooper are interested because it’s such an interesting first stage on which human nature was explored in all its forms, the geopolitics of it.

顺便说一句，我对第二次世界大战真的很感兴趣，可能就像丹·卡林和达里尔·库珀感兴趣一样，因为这是一个非常有趣的第一阶段，在这个阶段，人性及其地缘政治得到了各种形式的探索。

Everybody on that stage was complicated.

舞台上的每个人都很复杂。

Also, there’s a lot of fascinating military tactics and strategy and military technology plus the nuclear bomb, all of that.

此外，还有很多令人着迷的军事战术和战略以及军事技术以及核弹，所有这些。

That’s like a moment in human history.

这就像人类历史上的一个时刻。

Listen, I love Genghis Khan, Roman Empire, Alexander the Great, those are all interesting studies of human history, of military tactics, of brutality, of human nature, all of that.

听着，我喜欢成吉思汗、罗马帝国、亚历山大大帝，这些都是对人类历史、军事战术、残暴、人性等等的有趣研究。

That’s why I want to be able to discuss that.

这就是为什么我希望能够讨论这个问题。

It’s fascinating that humans are able to do that kind of thing.

人类能够做到这种事情真是令人着迷。

What causes them to do it?

是什么原因导致他们这样做？

What were the dynamics evolved, the propaganda on all sides?

各方面的动态、宣传是怎样的？

Could it been avoided or not?

到底能不能避免呢？

Plus Stalin is part of this picture.

另外，斯大林也是这张照片的一部分。

It’s like, what the fuck?

就像，他妈的是什么？

1:44:10 After the nuclear bomb you’re just not going to get characters like that.

在核弹爆炸之后，你就不会再遇到这样的角色了。

You’re not going to get a global war of that kind.

你不会遇到那种全球战争。

It might be a different one, maybe a cyber war or maybe a war in space, but we’re not going to get this kind of war ever again.

这可能是一场不同的战争，可能是一场网络战争，也可能是一场太空战争，但我们不会再发生这种战争。

That was the biggest and the last global war we’re going to get.

那是我们将要经历的最大规模也是最后一场全球战争。

So I want to be able to mouth off and explore and, yeah, argue with Darryl Cooper bought Churchill and say stupid in the process and Darryl says stupid in the process too, and together come up to the…

所以我希望能够开口说话并探索，是的，与达里尔·库珀（Darryl Cooper）购买了丘吉尔（Churchill）争论，并在这个过程中说愚蠢，而达里尔（Darryl）也在这个过程中说愚蠢，然后一起提出......

So anyway, the trolls on the left and the right just make everything worse and it’s annoying.

所以无论如何，左边和右边的巨魔只会让一切变得更糟，这很烦人。

Yeah, no, I agree with that.

是的，不，我同意这一点。

1:44:40 And I’m sure I’m not without my own bias in this because from my own self-interested perspective, I’m not saying this is the main reason to be annoyed with them or anything like that, but what I personally get is all types of, “Self-hating Jew,” “Nazi apologist,” all this literally just because I criticize the way Israel’s conducting this war.

我确信我在这方面并非没有偏见，因为从我自己的利己角度来看，我并不是说这是对他们或类似的事情感到恼火的主要原因，但我个人得到的是各种类型的“自我憎恨的犹太人”，“纳粹辩护者”，所有这些字面意思只是因为我批评以色列进行这场战争的方式。

So I think that’s insane.

所以我认为这太疯狂了。

1:45:11 But then I also feel like, and I just want to be clear, just explain this, I’m not saying this is the worst thing about people who are Jew haters on Twitter, but just from a personal perspective, I’m like, “Guys, you are not helping me, man.” I’ll get people in my comments who I think are trying to catch my back who just don’t know I’m Jewish and they’re like, I’ll say something critical of Israel, and then someone will argue with me and they’ll be like, “Oh look, a Jew came in here to defend Israel.” And I’m like, “Dude, first of all, literally you might as well be working for Mossad.

但我也觉得，我只是想澄清一下，解释一下这一点，我并不是说这是推特上仇恨犹太人的人最糟糕的事情，但只是从个人角度来看，我想，“伙计们，你们没有帮助我，伙计。”我会在我的评论中找到那些我认为试图阻止我的人，他们只是不知道我是犹太人，他们会说，我会说一些批评以色列的话，然后有人会与我争论，他们会说，“哦，看，一个犹太人来这里是为了保卫以色列。”我说，“伙计，首先，从字面上看，你还不如为摩萨德工作。

You literally make the entire movement who’s criticizing Israel look terrible, dude.

你真的让整个批评以色列的运动看起来很糟糕，伙计。

You are literally the enemy that they would like to have.”

你确实是他们想要的敌人。”

1:45:57 And so there’s a very weird dynamic in the Israel-Palestine conflict where there’s so many of the loons on both sides who almost seem like they’re secretly working for the other side.

因此，以色列和巴勒斯坦冲突中存在一种非常奇怪的动态，双方都有如此多的潜鸟，他们几乎看起来像是在秘密为另一方工作。

When you see the Palestinian protests and they’re chanting, “Death to America,” and all this stuff, you’re like, what are you doing?

当你看到巴勒斯坦抗议活动，他们高呼“美国去死”之类的口号时，你会想，你在做什么？

Are you trying to make people more sympathetic to Israel?

你想让人们更加同情以色列吗？

Because if Rabbi Shmuley was working for Adolf Hitler or something like that, it would all make perfect sense.

因为如果拉比·什穆利 (Rabbi Shmuley) 为阿道夫·希特勒 (Adolf Hitler) 或类似的人工作，那么这一切就完全有意义了。

You’d be like, “Oh, I get it, you sent this guy out to make everyone hate Jewish people.” And then with the Jew hating posts too, yeah, it just feeds right into the opposition side of how to caricature.

你会说，“哦，我明白了，你派这个家伙出去是为了让每个人都讨厌犹太人。”然后，还有仇恨犹太人的帖子，是的，它正好符合如何漫画的反对派。

It’s like, “Oh, so their game is, they’ll smear everybody who’s a critic of Israel as being a Jew hater so your answer is to just really be a Jew hater?

就像，“哦，所以他们的游戏是，他们会把所有批评以色列的人都污蔑为犹太人仇恨者，所以你的答案就是真正成为犹太人仇恨者？

Like, all right, I don’t think that’s helping.”

就像，好吧，我认为这没有帮助。”

So maybe this is a good time to ask for your advice because these folks are the reason why I’m hesitant.

所以也许现在是征求你的建议的好时机，因为这些人就是我犹豫的原因。

1:47:00 So I’ve interviewed several world leaders recently, it is looking likely that I’ll interview Vladimir Putin and several other similar level major world leaders.

因此，我最近采访了几位世界领导人，看来我还会采访弗拉基米尔·普京和其他几位类似级别的主要世界领导人。

I’ve previously interviewed Benjamin Netanyahu for an hour.

我之前采访过本杰明·内塔尼亚胡一个小时。

One of the biggest regrets I have about that interview is it was only an hour.

我对那次采访最大的遗憾之一是只有一个小时。

I mean, I learned a lot, but I think he’s a really important historical figure and I think it’s impossible to have an effective conversation with him that’s shorter than three hours.

我的意思是，我学到了很多东西，但我认为他是一位非常重要的历史人物，我认为不可能与他进行少于三个小时的有效对话。

So it looks like he’s interested now to do round two with me for three or more hours.

所以看起来他现在有兴趣和我一起进行第二轮三个或更长时间。

1:47:53 And I’ve personally, so this is a bit of a therapy session, but I’ve personally been leaning against doing it and I hate that I’m leaning against doing it because the reason I’m leaning against doing it is because the very people you’re talking about, because I just don’t want them on either side, pro Israel, it doesn’t really matter, but the chanting sheep of animal farm, Jew hating or otherwise, they follow you around everywhere online and make it difficult to think.

我个人来说，所以这有点像治疗课程，但我个人一直倾向于反对这样做，我讨厌我反对这样做，因为我反对这样做的原因是因为你正在谈论的那些人，因为我只是不希望他们站在任何一方，支持以色列，这并不重要，但是动物农场的羊，仇恨犹太人或其他人，他们在网上到处跟随你，让你很难思考。

I think whenever I come across these crowds, the woke left or the whatever you call the Jew haters, the woke right, let’s call them, they just decrease the quality of my thoughts for the rest of the day.

我想每当我遇到这些人群时，醒着的左派或者无论你怎么称呼犹太人仇恨者、醒着的右派，让我们称呼他们吧，他们只会降低我这一天剩下的时间的思想质量。

I get what you mean.

我明白你的意思。

I feel dumber.

我感觉自己更蠢了

1:48:48 It’s like Rogan talks about when he hears a bad comedian, he feels like nothing is funny anymore.

就像罗根说，当他听到一个糟糕的喜剧演员时，他觉得没有什么好笑的了。

This is what I feel like when I read their thoughts, it’s like, “I’m going to go read a book now because I need to recover my brain.”

这就是当我读到他们的想法时我的感受，就像，“我现在要去读一本书，因为我需要恢复我的大脑。”

Well, it’s a dangerous kind of poison to let in your mind because then you’re like, “Hey, I can’t be thinking about you when I’m doing what I want to do.

好吧，让这种想法进入你的脑海是一种危险的毒药，因为那样你就会想，“嘿，当我在做我想做的事情时，我不能想着你。

1:49:02 I can’t be thinking about what your reaction to this is going to be.” The way I always thought about it was when I’d get hate online, which I always get, it’s always just like, I look at it like this, I got a great family and a great career and I really love what I do.

我无法想象你对此会有什么反应。”我一直在想，当我在网上受到仇恨时，我总是会遇到这种情况，我总是这样看，我有一个美好的家庭和一个伟大的事业，我真的很喜欢我所做的事情。

I make really good money at what I do, and I do shows all the time, I get crowds of people who love what I do, I get a lot of people who listen to my podcast who love what I do.

我靠我所做的事情赚了很多钱，而且我一直在做节目，我有很多人喜欢我所做的事情，我有很多人听我的播客，他们喜欢我所做的事情。

And it’s like, so if I get all that and then the price that comes along with it is there’s some people who talk shit online, it’s like, that’s a very good price to pay for all of this.

就像，如果我得到了所有这些，那么随之而来的代价就是有些人在网上胡言乱语，就像，这是为所有这一切付出的一个非常好的代价。

1:49:55 And I just made a decision at a certain point that it’s like, I’m just going to accept that that’s the price of business here, that’s what it costs and then okay, fine.

我只是在某个时刻做出了一个决定，就像，我要接受这就是这里的业务价格，这就是它的成本，然后好吧，好吧。

And then sometimes I try to have fun with it or mock them or whatever to go back.

然后有时我会尝试从中获得乐趣或嘲笑他们或其他什么方式回去。

But to me now, again, I can never tell you what to do because it’s a very personal price that you have to pay, and it’s a very weird psychological dynamic.

但现在对我来说，我永远无法告诉你该怎么做，因为这是你必须付出的非常个人的代价，而且这是一种非常奇怪的心理动态。

I mean, it’s almost something like that we were not evolved to deal with and is very artificial.

我的意思是，这几乎是我们进化而来无法处理的事情，而且是非常人为的。

If there’s a group of thousands of people who hate your guts and are furious at you, we’re almost hardwired to be like, “Well, I’m going to be killed now.

如果有成千上万的人讨厌你并对你感到愤怒，我们几乎会本能地说：“好吧，我现在就要被杀了。

That’s the next thing that happens.” You’re not supposed to get to know what just someone in Arkansas thinks about you right now.

这就是接下来发生的事情。”你不应该知道阿肯色州的某个人现在对你的看法。

1:50:46 So that’s a very personal decision to make, but I kind of feel like guys like me and you have already made the decision that we’re in the arena and we’re going to deal with that price.

所以这是一个非常个人的决定，但我觉得像我这样的人已经做出了我们进入竞技场的决定，我们将处理这个价格。

So just from my perspective, I’m like, “Yeah, but how could you turn down getting three hours with Netanyahu?” That would just be so interesting.

所以从我的角度来看，我想，“是的，但是你怎么能拒绝与内塔尼亚胡在一起三个小时呢？”那真是太有趣了。

And I’m not even saying, I hate the guy, but I’m not saying you should interview him like you hate the guy or I’m not saying you even have to grill him, but just if you get three hours with somebody, something interesting is going to be revealed there.

我什至不是说，我讨厌这个人，但我并不是说你应该像讨厌他一样采访他，或者我不是说你甚至必须拷问他，但只要你和某人在一起三个小时，就会发现一些有趣的事情。

There’ll be a benefit to that.

这样做会有好处。

It’ll be interesting to just see him talk that way.

看到他那样说话会很有趣。

1:51:29 There’s also something about, as we kind of saw with Trump doing the podcasts and even with JD Vance doing some of the podcasts, there is something really interesting about this format, the long form podcast where it just gets people to let down their guard and reveal themselves a little bit more.

还有一些事情，正如我们看到的特朗普做播客，甚至 JD 万斯做一些播客，这种格式真的很有趣，长篇播客会让人们放松警惕，更多地展示自己。

It is not just the time factor.

这不仅仅是时间因素。

That’s a big one, it’s a huge, huge one.

这是一个很大的一个，这是一个巨大的、巨大的一个。

But there’s something about if me and you are just like, we were having this conversation right now, but in the back of us was like a cable news background of red and blue and sparks and a ticker at the bottom of the show and then you just start interviewing someone, it’s just a different thing.

但如果我和你就像这样，我们现在正在进行对话，但在我们后面就像是红色、蓝色和火花的有线新闻背景，节目底部有一个收报机，然后你就开始采访某人，这只是另一回事。

Whereas this you just fall into conversation mode.

而这你只是陷入了对话模式。

And I’d be interested to see him fall into that, Putin too.

我很想看到他也陷入这样的境地，普京也是如此。

I just think it’s great.

我只是觉得这很棒。

First of all, thank you for the encouragement.

首先谢谢大家的鼓励。

1:52:22 But to push back on the complexity of it a little bit, I think everything you said about your life is also true about my life except family, I want to have a family, you son of a bitch, you’re bragging.

但稍微推论一下它的复杂性，我认为你所说的关于你生活的一切也适用于我的生活，除了家庭，我想要一个家庭，你这个王八蛋，你在吹牛。

On the podcast side, I can have a lot of incredible conversations, some of my favorites are talking to programmers or video game designers or to you about Netanyahu versus talking to a world leader is a very specific thing and people don’t understand that that, for example, you and I can mouth off, we can be super supportive of Netanyahu or super critical in a way that you can’t do in front of the guy.

在播客方面，我可以进行很多令人难以置信的对话，我最喜欢的一些对话是与程序员或视频游戏设计师或与你谈论内塔尼亚胡，而不是与世界领导人交谈是一件非常具体的事情，人们不明白这一点，例如，你和我可以大嘴说，我们可以超级支持内塔尼亚胡，也可以以一种你不能在他面前做的方式超级批评。

Yeah, that’s true.

是的，确实如此。

If you want to reveal something about that person, there’s a different skill involved there in order to reveal how they think, who they are as a human being, you have to, just like we said with Darryl Cooper, you have to humanize the person to a degree in order to let their mind flourish in front of you in order for them to let down the barriers they’ve put up.

如果你想揭示那个人的一些事情，那就需要一种不同的技能来揭示他们的想法，他们作为一个人是谁，你必须这样做，就像我们对达里尔·库珀说的那样，你必须在一定程度上使这个人人性化，让他们的思想在你面前蓬勃发展，从而让他们放下他们设置的障碍。

1:53:05 And Benjamin Netanyahu’s put up a lot of barriers, internally in Israel he gets attacked insanely.

本杰明·内塔尼亚胡设置了很多障碍，在以色列内部他受到了疯狂的攻击。

There’s a Game of Thrones constantly going on, and this guy has maintained power for a very long time so he is very good at putting up those barriers.

《权力的游戏》一直在上演，而这个家伙已经保持了很长一段时间的权力，所以他非常擅长设置这些障碍。

Plus, globally gets attacked a lot.

另外，全球范围内受到很多攻击。

So the task there is difficult.

所以那里的任务很困难。

And so each one is a puzzle and you have to make a decision, do you want to take this on as a project which might become a lifelong project because of the consequences?

所以每一个都是一个谜题，你必须做出决定，你想把它作为一个项目来承担，因为其后果可能会成为一个终生的项目吗？

And you don’t need to.

你不需要这样做。

There’s a calculation there.

那里有一个计算。

1:54:02 I’m not saying it’s not so self-evident that there is a correct and incorrect answer, and I do think that we’ve probably all had things, like certain type of ventures in life where you’re like, “All right, no, I don’t want to do that.” But then you have to have a moment and be like, “Well, why is it you don’t want it?

我并不是说，存在正确和错误的答案并不那么明显，而且我确实认为我们可能都经历过一些事情，比如生活中的某些类型的冒险，你会说，“好吧，不，我不想这样做。”但随后你必须有一点时间说：“好吧，为什么你不想要它？

Oh, is it just because it’s going to be a lot of work?

哦，只是因为工作量很大吗？

Is it just because you’re scared of it?

难道只是因为你害怕它吗？

Is it just because this?” And those typically are not good reasons to not do something, you know what I mean?

仅仅是因为这个吗？”这些通常都不是不做某事的好理由，你知道我的意思吗？

1:54:29 Now, there is a reasonable, I think, point that you made in there where it’s like it is a different game to interview a world leader.

现在，我认为您在其中提出的观点是合理的，采访世界领导人就像是一场不同的游戏。

That is a very different thing.

这是完全不同的事情。

Talking to some comedian about his thoughts on all this stuff is a very different thing than talking to a world leader and especially one who’s conducting a brutal war as you’re talking to them.

与某个喜剧演员谈论他对所有这些事情的想法与与一位世界领导人交谈是非常不同的事情，尤其是当你与他们交谈时，他正在进行一场残酷的战争。

And I don’t know exactly what the way to navigate that is.

我不知道具体的导航方式是什么。

I agree with you, it’s not just to be hostile and be like, “I’ve got you here for three hours, I’m going to grill the shit,” it’s probably not the best way to do it.

我同意你的观点，这不仅仅是充满敌意，比如“我让你在这里待了三个小时，我要烤这些东西”，这可能不是最好的方法。

There’s probably to have a conversation to talk to the guy, probably try to get some important questions in, but also give him a chance to breathe and be a person.

可能需要和这个人进行一次对话，可能会尝试提出一些重要的问题，但也给他一个喘息和成为一个人的机会。

From my perspective, but again, it’s a very personal thing, for me I just do think that I’m going, “I hope you do it,” because I’d love to see that podcast.

从我的角度来看，但同样，这是一件非常个人的事情，对我来说，我只是认为我会说，“我希望你这么做”，因为我很想看那个播客。

Okay, well see, this is why it’s part of the reason I asked you is I get a Dave Smith endorsement on it.

好吧，好吧，这就是为什么我问你的部分原因是我得到了戴夫·史密斯的认可。

There you go, when this completely ruins it.

就这样，当这完全毁了它时。

At least there’s another guy who thought there’s a chance that it might be a good idea.

至少还有另一个人认为这可能是个好主意。

1:55:32 Because I don’t know, that’s the cool thing about the things we do, you’ve been through a lot of battles, you’ve walked into a lot of tough debates and it’s like you don’t know, this could be the conversation that ends you.

因为我不知道，这就是我们所做的事情的酷之处，你经历了很多战斗，你经历了很多艰难的辩论，就好像你不知道，这可能是结束你的对话。

I know.

我知道。

1:55:48 Well, I’ll say I think that’s one of the things that I love about doing debates, and there is something about that where I do kind of feel this…

好吧，我会说我认为这是我喜欢进行辩论的事情之一，而且我确实有这样的感觉……

I’m a little bit of an adrenaline junkie.

我有点肾上腺素瘾君子。

I mean, not really, I don’t skydive or do stuff like that, but doing stand-up, there’s always something about that that’s like you’re risking a lot by doing it, you feel alive and not the way you do when you first start.

我的意思是，不是真的，我不跳伞或做类似的事情，但做单口喜剧，总有一种感觉，就像你在做这件事时冒了很大的风险，你感觉自己还活着，而不是像刚开始时那样。

But there is something about that and there’s something about…

但这是有道理的，还有……

Well, first of all, there’s kind of two things.

嗯，首先，有两件事。

1:56:23 Number one, I feel like I’m obligated, and I wouldn’t say this for you, but I think this is true for me, I think I’m obligated to do at least several debates a year.

第一，我觉得我有义务，我不会为你这么说，但我认为这对我来说是正确的，我认为我有义务每年至少进行几次辩论。

And I think that if I’m going to go on shows like your show and Rogan’s show and Tucker’s show and Candice or whoever else, Patrick Bet-David and Tim Pool, and I go on these big shows for long form things and I’m sitting there and I’m being like, “Okay, it’s like this and I think it’s like this,” and then if I’m going to do that, I kind of have an obligation to test myself against someone being like, “No, it’s not like that,” and then showing that I think I can stand up to these kind of challenges.

我认为，如果我要参加像你的节目、罗根的节目、塔克的节目、坎迪斯或其他人，帕特里克·贝特-大卫和蒂姆·普尔这样的节目，我会参加这些大型节目，做一些长期的事情，我坐在那里，我会说，“好吧，是这样的，我认为是这样的，”然后如果我要这样做，我有义务测试自己是否有这样的人， “不，不是那样的”，然后表明我认为我可以应对这些挑战。

So I feel like I’m kind of obligated.

所以我觉得我有义务。

1:57:07 But then there is a feeling to it where you’re like, “Hey man, my career is not a joke.

但随后你就会有一种感觉，“嘿伙计，我的职业生涯不是一个笑话。

I got little kids.

我有小孩子。

This is how I support them.” And I am kind of taking my career in my hands every time I go do one of these debates.

这就是我支持他们的方式。”每次我参加这些辩论时，我都把我的职业生涯掌握在自己手中。

If I just get smoked and this guy just totally beats me up, it’s like, I don’t know, I don’t know, how’s anyone going to look at me again after that?

如果我被抽烟了，这个家伙就把我打了一顿，就像，我不知道，我不知道，之后怎么会有人再看我呢？

You’d be like, “Oh, you acted like you had such a good point and then this guy just totally destroyed your point.” But that then motivates me to be like, “Okay, I got to really be on point.

你会说，“哦，你表现得好像你有一个很好的观点，然后这个人完全摧毁了你的观点。”但这会激励我说：“好吧，我必须说得对。

I got to really make sure I’ve done my homework.

我必须真正确保我已经完成了作业。

I got to make sure my argument’s really tight.

我必须确保我的论点非常有力。

I got to think about this thing from all ends.”

我必须从各个方面考虑这件事。”

1:57:51 And then on the other level, it’s like if someone can do that to me, then kind of that’s the way the movie’s supposed to end.

然后在另一个层面上，就像如果有人可以对我这样做，那么这就是电影应该结束的方式。

If there is some hole in my argument that I’m just not thinking of and then someone else can point it out to me and I got no response to it, then I kind of deserve to be humiliated publicly for that so all right.

如果我的论点中有一些我没有想到的漏洞，然后其他人可以向我指出它而我没有得到回应，那么我应该因此而受到公开羞辱，所以没关系。

And I don’t know, it’s kind of exciting in a way.

我不知道，这在某种程度上令人兴奋。

Because the movie ends at some point.

因为电影在某个时刻结束了。

Well, that’s true.

嗯，确实如此。

1:58:14 Unless you and your genius friends can figure out how to give us eternal life or something.

除非你和你的天才朋友能想出如何给我们永生什么的。

I don’t think I want to live forever.

我想我不想永远活着。

1:58:20 I think flirting with that idea too much is dangerous, this kind of transhumanism kind of idea.

我认为过多地与这种想法调情是危险的，这种超人类主义的想法。

It’s not a good way of thinking.

这不是一个好的思维方式。

Of course, I do want to heal diseases and extend human life, especially high quality of human life.

当然，我确实想治愈疾病，延长人类的寿命，特别是提高人类的生活质量。

But yeah.

但是是的。

If we could be in much better shape and much healthier and extend life by a few decades, I think that would be great.

如果我们能够拥有更好的体质、更健康，并能延长几十年的寿命，我想那就太好了。

1:58:45 But I agree with you.

但我同意你的观点。

I think there’s supposed to be an expiration date on it, I think we’re supposed to…

我认为它应该有一个截止日期，我认为我们应该......

There’s something about scarcity being a necessary component in a lot of different fields, you know what I mean?

稀缺性是许多不同领域的必要组成部分，你知道我的意思吗？

Where it’s like life itself having a finite amount of time on it I think makes it more precious.

我认为生命本身的时间是有限的，这让它变得更加珍贵。

Yeah, at the individual level and then at the societal level, it just does seem like death is the way you get new ideas.

是的，在个人层面和社会层面，死亡似乎确实是你获得新想法的方式。

1:59:15 It’s like people kind of solidify their ideas and are unwilling to change their mind and the only way you get new ideas-

这就像人们巩固了他们的想法并且不愿意改变他们的想法，这是你获得新想法的唯一途径 -

Yeah, that’s interesting, right?

是的，这很有趣，对吧？

1:59:30 The next generation has to take them over.

下一代必须接管他们。

You have to keep turning.

你必须继续转动。

1:59:32 All right, speaking of the trolls and Israel, I got to ask you about this.

好吧，说到巨魔和以色列，我得问你这个问题。

Let’s talk about Jeffrey Epstein.

我们来谈谈杰弗里·爱泼斯坦。

I recently got attacked because a couple of conversations I had with Tim Dillon three and four years ago.

我最近受到攻击是因为三四年前我与蒂姆·狄龙的几次谈话。

I love Tim Dillon, he’s hilarious.

我喜欢蒂姆·狄龙，他很搞笑。

I love Tim too.

我也爱蒂姆。

1:59:52 I’ve known Tim for many years, love that guy.

我认识蒂姆很多年了，很喜欢他。

Yeah, so I bring up Jeffrey Epstein often because it’s a fascinating study of evil to me, whichever angle you take on it.

是的，所以我经常提到杰弗里·爱泼斯坦，因为无论你从哪个角度来看，这对我来说都是对邪恶的一项有趣的研究。

1:59:57 And I think there, partially to talk shit, but I showed some skepticism that he’s connected to Mossad.

我认为，部分是在说废话，但我对他与摩萨德有联系表示怀疑。

And I’ve evolved on that since then.

从那时起我就在这方面不断发展。

By the way, I’m not actually sure it’s Mossad, it could be any intelligence agencies, it could be CIA.

顺便说一句，我实际上不确定这是摩萨德，它可能是任何情报机构，也可能是中央情报局。

But I was wondering if you could educate me.

但我想知道你是否可以教育我。

I did a little research on this last night, I looked into it a little more, and then I saw that you said he’s definitely Mossad.

昨晚我对此做了一些研究，我进一步研究了一些，然后我看到你说他肯定是摩萨德。

Well, I don’t know, I didn’t say he was definitely Mossad.

嗯，我不知道，我没说他肯定是摩萨德。

2:00:34 I don’t know my exact…

我不知道我的具体情况...

I mean, I made one kind of jokey post.

我的意思是，我发了一篇开玩笑的帖子。

As is the case with almost any intelligence operation, look, I don’t want to poo-poo anybody’s hopes here because I guess the JFK files just got released and supposedly the rest of the Epstein files are coming out and there’s a major yearning right now to get to the end of the movie where we find out everything that happened.

与几乎所有情报行动的情况一样，听着，我不想在这里辜负任何人的希望，因为我猜肯尼迪文件刚刚发布，据说爱泼斯坦的其余文件也即将发布，现在人们非常渴望看到电影的结尾，在那里我们发现发生的一切。

And I think it’s great that people have that desire, and I hope more and more does come out.

我认为人们有这样的愿望真是太好了，我希望越来越多的人能够实现。

I think the truth is that with any intelligence operations, we’re probably never going to know all of the details of exactly what happened.

我认为事实是，对于任何情报行动，我们可能永远不会知道到底发生了什么的所有细节。

The funny thing about intelligence agencies, and I’ve been regularly accused of being CIA, FSB or Mossad depending on the group that’s attacking me, but I think it’s a fascinating topic and it’s very difficult to know somebody’s intelligence, but if you have any nuance and want to discuss the nuances, then the comment is going to be, “That guy for sure is Mossad,” if we’re talking about Mossad or so on.

情报机构的有趣之处在于，我经常被指控为中央情报局、联邦安全局或摩萨德，具体取决于攻击我的组织，但我认为这是一个令人着迷的话题，很难了解某人的情报，但如果你有任何细微差别并想讨论这些细微差别，那么评论将是，“那家伙肯定是摩萨德”，如果我们谈论的是摩萨德等等。

2:01:20 But yeah, that’s one of the things I didn’t know.

但是，是的，这是我不知道的事情之一。

And I saw the, what is it, Alex Acosta basically mentioned that Epstein is intelligence.

我看到，这是什么，亚历克斯·阿科斯塔基本上提到爱泼斯坦是情报。

That to me is like, “Okay, that’s the piece of evidence, that’s the really valuable piece of evidence that he’s intelligence.” And that was very not just intelligence, but Mossad.

对我来说，就像是，“好吧，这就是证据，这是证明他聪明的真正有价值的证据。”这不仅仅是情报，还有摩萨德。

Because before that I thought it might be CIA because I kind of heard rumors-

因为在此之前我认为这可能是中央情报局，因为我听到了一些谣言——

And I think it’s quite possible that he was working with elements of both, I mean, as I think is often the case.

我认为他很可能正在研究两者的元素，我的意思是，我认为经常发生这种情况。

2:02:09 I also think that’s something that people get a little bit wrong when they think, “Okay, this guy was CIA, or, “This guy was Mossad.” And then there’s also, I think there’s the possibility that there are rogue elements within those organizations.

我还认为，当人们认为“好吧，这个人是中央情报局”，或者“这个人是摩萨德”时，他们会犯一些错误。另外，我认为这些组织内部可能存在流氓分子。

This is not necessarily coming from the director I don’t know.

这不一定来自我不认识的导演。

2:02:31 But you look at the guy, the way his career trajectory tracks is completely unexplainable outside of being connected to intelligence.

但你看看这个人，除了与智力有关之外，他的职业轨迹完全无法解释。

It’s not just the one or two people saying that he’s intelligence, it’s like the idea that you’re just like, you have no experience and you’re a teacher at Dalton, which is this incredibly elite New York City private school, and then all of a sudden you’re at Bear Stearns and within two years you’ve made partner and you’re worth hundreds of millions of dollars and nobody knows where you made your money from?

这不仅仅是一两个人说他很聪明，而是像这样的想法：你没有经验，你是道尔顿的老师，这是纽约市一所令人难以置信的精英私立学校，然后突然你到了贝尔斯登，两年之内你就成为了合伙人，你身价数亿美元，但没有人知道你的钱从哪里来？

This just doesn’t happen.

这根本不会发生。

And then you’re just inserted into this world with all of the most highest level political leaders and cultural figures and stuff.

然后你就进入了这个世界，这里有所有最高级别的政治领导人和文化人物之类的东西。

2:03:14 But the thing that’s amazing about the Jeffrey Epstein story is that it’s like the level of evil and the level of corruption that it exposes, no matter what the answer is, no matter what the answer is, you’re going to tell me that there was a pedophile ring in our country that involved…

但杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的故事令人惊奇的是，它就像它所揭露的邪恶程度和腐败程度一样，无论答案是什么，无论答案是什么，你都会告诉我，我们国家有一个恋童癖团伙，其中涉及……

I mean, listen, dude, if you had said this before it came out, this would’ve been the wildest conspiracy theory, but a pedophile ring that involves the most powerful people in the United States of America and in the world to some degree touching the Royal family, the Clintons, all these people, and that this was known and covered up and then allowed to continue?

我的意思是，听着，伙计，如果你在这件事出来之前就这么说了，这将是最疯狂的阴谋论，而是一个恋童癖团伙，涉及美利坚合众国和世界上最有权势的人，在某种程度上触及了王室、克林顿夫妇和所有这些人，而且这是众所周知的、被掩盖的，然后被允许继续下去？

I mean, there’s a blackmail operation that relies on raping American children?

我的意思是，有一个依靠强奸美国儿童的勒索行动？

And if this is, whether it’s CIA or Mossad doesn’t make one less, it’s equally horrible.

而如果是这样的话，无论是中情局还是摩萨德都不少做一件，同样可怕。

2:04:18 But then these elements were like, you’re like, okay, so when he first got arrested and then he was given a slap on the wrist, a slap on the wrist and then the prosecutor says, “Well, I was told by the intelligence community that he’s intelligence and to go easy on him,” it’s like, “Oh, okay, okay.

但这些元素就像，你就像，好吧，所以当他第一次被捕，然后他被打了一巴掌，一巴掌，然后检察官说，“嗯，情报部门告诉我他很聪明，要对他宽容一点，”这就像是，“哦，好吧，好吧。

And you didn’t resign and discuss that day?” You know what I mean?

而且那天你没有辞职讨论吗？”你知道我的意思吗？

I don’t think that’s too much to ask for.

我认为这个要求并不过分。

There was the ABC reporter who said that she had the whole story, she’s on the hot mic saying she had the whole story and then the network told her to squash it, and it’s like, “And you stayed working there?” I’m sorry, I’m not saying we’re all imperfect and none of us are heroes, but you are in a news network and you uncovered a child raping ring that implicated the most powerful people in our society and your news network told you, “We will not run this story because of our relationship with the royal family,” and you did not resign in disgust that day and take this story to every single independent outlet that would maybe publish it?

有一位 ABC 记者说她掌握了整个故事，她对着麦克风说她掌握了整个故事，然后电视网告诉她要压制它，就像是，“你还在那里工作吗？”对不起，我并不是说我们都是不完美的，我们都不是英雄，但是你在新闻网络中，你发现了一个涉及我们社会中最有权势的人的儿童强奸团伙，你的新闻网络告诉你，“因为我们与王室的关系，我们不会报道这个故事”，而你那天没有厌恶地辞职，并将这个故事带到每个可能发布它的独立媒体吗？

I’m sorry.

对不起。

2:05:25 It’s like it’s so damning to the entire apparatus that we did not, at the very least, see mass resignations over this, forget even at the very least expect that it would’ve been prosecuted and shut down.

就好像这对整个机构来说是如此可恶，以至于我们至少没有看到大规模辞职，甚至忘记至少预期它会被起诉并关闭。

And then still to this day even it’s like, and I think Tucker Carlson just said this recently, and I guess it’s a little bit of a weird area when you’re filming people raping children, but where are the tapes?

直到今天，我想塔克·卡尔森最近才说过这句话，我想当你拍摄人们强奸儿童时，这有点奇怪，但是录像带在哪里？

Why is everyone talking about the flight logs and the files?

为什么每个人都在谈论飞行日志和文件？

Where are the tapes?

磁带在哪里？

This guy was clearly taping people to blackmail them.

这家伙明显是在录音勒索人。

Where are those?

那些在哪里？

2:06:02 I don’t know what the legal process of this is, because I think technically it’s child porn, so yeah, okay, you can’t just distribute it out and let everybody watch it, but isn’t there a way that somebody has to sit down and watch it and see who is implicated in this?

我不知道这件事的法律程序是什么，因为我认为从技术上讲这是儿童色情片，所以是的，好吧，你不能只是分发它并让每个人都观看它，但是是否有一种方法可以让有人坐下来观看它并看看谁与此有关？

And there’s even, I think there’s a lot of LARPing with this administration going on right now on this topic, but does anybody really expect that we’re actually going to get to the bottom of this?

甚至，我认为本届政府现在就这个话题正在进行很多 LARPing，但有人真的期望我们真的能查出真相吗？

Because I don’t.

因为我不。

And that in itself just tells you what a sham this god damn whole system is.

这本身就告诉你这个该死的整个系统是多么的骗局。

2:06:35 One of the things that’s so amazing about the Jeffrey Epstein story, I mean, you have all of that, and then of course, the end of it, which is just like, “Wait a minute, wait, what?

杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的故事最令人惊奇的一件事是，我的意思是，你拥有了所有这些，当然，还有它的结尾，就像是，“等一下，等等，什么？

Hold on.

坚持，稍等。

He’s in the most secure prison and then the cameras go out and the correctional officers don’t fill out the log and he’s found dead?” I mean, but when you look at it in totality, there’s just no getting around the huge indictment it is of this entire everything.

他在最安全的监狱里，然后摄像头就灭了，狱警没有填写日志，他就被发现死了？”我的意思是，但当你从整体上看时，你会发现，你无法回避对这一切的巨大控诉。

And I mean, even the fact that even the Trump administration, when Pam Bondi goes, “We’re going to release all of this information.

我的意思是，即使是特朗普政府，当帕姆·邦迪发言时，“我们将公布所有这些信息。

We’ve only redacted what needs to be redacted for national security.”

我们只修改了国家安全需要修改的内容。”

The meme.

模因。

Why does anything need to be redacted for national security?

为什么为了国家安全需要修改某些内容？

2:07:18 I’m sorry, you’re telling me there’s a pedophile ring and we can’t tell you everything about it for national security?

抱歉，你告诉我有一个恋童癖团伙，但为了国家安全我们不能告诉你一切？

Why would that be related to national security?

为什么会涉及国家安全？

And I do think there’s something, and it’s very interesting because we talked briefly, was that on air before, we were talking about Sam Harris kind of criticized me a little bit for not having the credentials to talk about some of this stuff, which I even said, “Okay, he has got a point,” but it’s one of the things that guys like Sam Harris will talk about a lot is that, “Look, we need trust in institutions.” And this is his big thing where he goes, “These people like Joe Rogan and Dave Smith are just tearing down the institutions.

我确实认为有一些东西，这很有趣，因为我们简短地谈过，之前在广播中，我们谈论萨姆·哈里斯有点批评我，因为我没有资格谈论这些东西，我什至说，“好吧，他说得有道理”，但像萨姆·哈里斯这样的人会经常谈论的事情之一是，“看，我们需要对机构的信任。”这是他的大事，“像乔·罗根和戴夫·史密斯这样的人正在摧毁这些机构。

And while I recognize that’s an issue, I also think we need trust in these institutions.”

虽然我认识到这是一个问题，但我也认为我们需要对这些机构的信任。”

That’s a good Sam Harris.

那是一个很好的山姆·哈里斯。

Yeah, well, if you talk in that tone, then it means you’re not being emotional and you’re only being logical and rational, which I actually don’t think is appropriate when you’re talking about a child rapist ring, but whatever, that’s my take on it.

是的，好吧，如果你用这种语气说话，那就意味着你没有情绪化，你只是在逻辑和理性，我实际上认为当你谈论儿童强奸犯团伙时这是不合适的，但无论如何，这就是我的看法。

2:08:05 But it’s like, okay, so where are these institutions I’m supposed to trust, man?

但这就像，好吧，那么我应该信任的这些机构在哪里呢，伙计？

You’re telling me there’s a pedophile ring that is at least in some degree associated with national security?

你是说有一个恋童癖团伙至少在某种程度上与国家安全有关？

What?

什么？

And how could you possibly have this story if you did care about trust in institutions, then you should be even louder than me talking about you got to tell the truth on this story otherwise we’ll never have trust in these institutions.

如果你确实关心对机构的信任，你怎么可能有这个故事，那么你应该比我更大声地谈论你必须在这个故事上说实话，否则我们永远不会信任这些机构。

I’m the same actually, I believe institutions, I think they have value.

其实我也一样，我相信机构，我认为他们有价值。

2:08:41 So this is where you and I probably disagree on the libertarian side.

所以这就是你和我在自由主义方面可能存在分歧的地方。

I think institutions, if they’re run efficiently can-

我认为机构如果运行有效的话可以-

Who’s the utopian now?

现在谁是乌托邦？

That’s right.

没错。

2:08:56 I mean there is the utopian notion to it for sure, but because it’s very possible that bureaucracy has always destroy the productivity and the effectiveness of institutions.

我的意思是，这肯定有乌托邦的概念，但因为官僚主义很可能总是破坏制度的生产力和有效性。

It’s possible.

这是可能的。

It’s a Lord Atkins kind of power corrupts type deal?

这是阿特金斯勋爵那种权力腐败类型的交易吗？

And you’re absolutely right, if you believe in institutions, you should want to release everything about Epstein.

你是绝对正确的，如果你相信机构，你应该想要公布有关爱泼斯坦的一切。

2:09:08 You should want to be transparent as much as possible.

您应该希望尽可能透明。

Yeah.

是的。

But the one thing, and it is very suspicious, so I’m more and more becoming convinced that there’s some intelligence agency connected to it.

但有一点，它非常可疑，所以我越来越相信有一些情报机构与之有关。

But I also want to, setting that aside, just comment on one thing where again, it’s super entertaining, but people say about me that I came out of nowhere and that’s proof that I’m intelligence.

但我也想抛开这一点，只评论一件事，这再次非常有趣，但人们说我不知从何而来，这证明我很聪明。

So first of all, there is a track record of “where I came from”.

所以首先，有一个“我从哪里来”的记录。

It’s just people are too lazy.

只是人们太懒了。

And there is something sexy about just saying Mossad.

仅仅提到摩萨德就有些性感。

“Oh, he’s denying it?

“哦，他否认了？

Fucking Mossad.” By the way, the Mossad thing is a new thing, it used to be FSB and CIA.

该死的摩萨德。”顺便说一下，摩萨德这个东西是个新东西，以前是FSB和CIA。

What do I want to say about that?

对此我想说什么？

Oh, yeah, I’ve been gradually growing in popularity over the past 10 years, I’ve been doing interviews, lectures, podcasts, and it’s actually very gradual.

哦，是的，这10年我的知名度是逐渐提高的，我一直在做采访、演讲、播客，实际上是非常渐进的。

And I don’t know what else to say.

我不知道还能说什么。

There’s a difference, and I know I’ve experienced this too, right?

是有区别的，我知道我也经历过这个，对吧？

2:10:21 There’s such a difference in perspective because if somebody just found me and they just found out who I am, and they go, “This guy’s brand new and he’s doing all these shows,” but you’re like, “Yeah, well, I don’t know, dude.

观点上存在很大的差异，因为如果有人刚刚找到我，他们刚刚发现我是谁，他们就会说，“这个人是全新的，他正在做所有这些节目，”但你会说，“是的，好吧，我不知道，伙计。

Not from my perspective I’m not brand new.

从我的角度来看，我不是全新的。

Dude, I’ve been doing stand-up comedy for 19 years and I’ve been podcasting for 15 years.” And then when it starts taking off, everybody’s like, “Oh, this guy just came out of nowhere.” And you’re like, “I mean, all right, I wish I had been aware that it was all this quick.”

老兄，我做单口喜剧已经 19 年了，我做播客也有 15 年了。”然后当它开始起飞时，每个人都会说，“哦，这个家伙不知从哪里冒出来。”你会说，“我的意思是，好吧，我希望我能意识到这一切都这么快。”

2:10:54 But look, a lot of this stuff with so much of this too, it’s just laziness and people searching for confirmation bias and people searching for a simpler story because that’s easier.

但是你看，很多这样的东西也有很多这样的东西，这只是懒惰，人们寻找确认偏见，人们寻找更简单的故事，因为那样更容易。

So if they believe that Epstein was Mossad and there’s a clip of you where you’re like, “I don’t know about that,” then they go, “See, he’s Mossad too, and now that fits perfectly into my little story.” I know the truth is that it’s quite possible that people just aren’t convinced.

因此，如果他们认为爱泼斯坦是摩萨德，并且有一个你的片段，你会说，“我不知道这一点，”然后他们会说，“看，他也是摩萨德，现在这完全适合我的小故事。”我知道事实是人们很可能不相信。

However, given enough time, Tim Dillon is always right about everything.

然而，只要有足够的时间，蒂姆·狄龙在所有事情上总是正确的。

That’s true.

确实如此。

So eventually you’ll have to admit that he got it right.

所以最终你不得不承认他是对的。

And not to say the cliche cheesy thing, but it is true that the comedians sometimes say the obvious thing that people are a little resistant to say, it ends up being true.

并不是说陈词滥调俗气的事情，但喜剧演员有时确实会说一些人们有点抗拒说的显而易见的事情，但最终却是真的。

2:11:30 Now we just landed some more credibility to Tim Dillon’s insanity, great.

现在我们对蒂姆·狄龙的疯狂有了更多的可信度，太棒了。

Now I do want to comment on the other aspect of me that came out of nowhere, fine, but I do get to talk to world leaders, which I have to really admit I don’t understand why.

现在我确实想评论一下我突然出现的另一方面，好吧，但我确实可以与世界领导人交谈，我必须承认我不明白为什么。

So the experience I’ve had is you basically gain a reputation, I talked to a lot of scientists early on, you gain a reputation like this is an interesting person to talk to, and that travels.

所以我的经验是，你基本上获得了声誉，我很早就和很多科学家交谈过，你获得了这样的声誉：你是一个有趣的人，可以与之交谈，而且可以传播。

And then over time you get fans and world leaders are humans too, they listen to this stuff and sometimes it’s their family that listen.

随着时间的推移，你会得到粉丝，世界领导人也是人，他们听这些东西，有时是他们的家人在听。

Yeah, oftentimes their kids, that seems to be a big one.

是的，通常他们的孩子，这似乎是一个大孩子。

And so that’s just how it happens.

事情就是这样发生的。

2:12:31 And so you sent an email, “Hey, you want to talk?” And then their team or them directly, in several cases, they just respond, “Yeah,” and that’s it.

所以你发了一封电子邮件，“嘿，你想谈谈吗？”然后他们的团队或直接他们，在某些情况下，他们只是回答，“是的”，就是这样。

It’s as simple as that.

就这么简单。

And they’re human beings.

他们是人类。

And I think a lot of them as human beings are exhausted by journalists, by shitty journalists I should say.

我认为他们中的很多人都被记者弄得精疲力竭，我应该说是被那些糟糕的记者弄得精疲力尽。

And it’s hard for them to know which is the good journalist.

他们很难知道哪个是好记者。

By good, there’s the cynical view that they want somebody who’s just going to spout propaganda aligned with their propaganda.

好吧，有一种愤世嫉俗的观点认为，他们想要一个只会发表与他们的宣传一致的宣传的人。

No, they just want a good faith person in front of them.

不，他们只是想要一个真诚的人在他们面前。

And I should also say that no single world leader has told me which questions to ask.

我还应该说，没有任何一位世界领导人告诉我要问哪些问题。

There’s this meme about my conversation with Modi that it’s scripted, nope, there was zero oversight, I have full control.

关于我与莫迪的谈话，有这样一个梗：它是照本宣科的，不，零监督，我有完全的控制权。

Well, it’s also, I mean, obviously one of the major dynamics, which is just one of the most interesting kind of themes in the world, I think right now, but it’s particularly true in America, is that the corporate media is just shrinking and shrinking and shrinking and whatever this is, which is so weird that we still all call them podcasts because just not the right name for them at all and none of us have had an iPod in quite a long time.

好吧，我的意思是，这显然也是主要动力之一，我认为现在是世界上最有趣的主题之一，但在美国尤其如此，那就是企业媒体正在不断萎缩，无论这是什么，这很奇怪，我们仍然称它们为播客，因为这根本不是正确的名称，而且我们已经很长一段时间没有人拥有 iPod 了。

2:13:25 And I don’t know, it’s just such the first person came up with it, “It’s a cast on an iPod, it’s a podcast,” and we all still use that term.

我不知道，这只是第一个想出这个词的人，“这是 iPod 上的演员，这是一个播客”，我们仍然使用这个术语。

But whatever, these shows on the internet have the audience.

但无论如何，互联网上的这些节目都有观众。

And so that’s a big factor, just that it’s like, “Oh, this is where you can go to the audience.”

所以这是一个重要因素，就像，“哦，这就是你可以去见观众的地方。”

2:14:13 And then I would say, and I don’t know exactly, I have no idea, I should say, the motivations inside any individual’s heads, but I would say in the case of Vladimir Putin, he is completely blacked out in American media and to the point that even RT has been blocked out, they never play any of his speeches, they never allow you to hear, “Look, this is what this guy’s perspective is.” It’s very interesting in the same way that they kind of all flipped out when Osama bin Laden’s letter to America went viral on Tik-Tok, and then all the talks of banning Tik-Tok increased and stuff.

然后我会说，我不知道确切的情况，我不知道，我应该说，任何人头脑中的动机，但我会说，就弗拉基米尔·普京而言，他在美国媒体中完全被黑了，甚至连 RT 都被屏蔽了，他们从不播放他的任何演讲，他们从不让你听到，“看，这就是这个人的观点。”这非常有趣，就像当奥萨马·本·拉登写给美国的信在 Tik-Tok 上疯传时，他们都发疯了一样，然后所有关于禁止 Tik-Tok 的讨论增加了。

So for him, say like when he did the Tucker interview or if he does an interview with you, well, that’s a way for him to do an end around and allow his perspective to be heard, which I personally think is obviously a good thing.

所以对他来说，就像他接受塔克采访时或者他接受你采访时一样，好吧，这是他结束并让他的观点被听到的一种方式，我个人认为这显然是一件好事。

If you’re going to go in a war, and we’re kind of at a war with Russia right now, you should know what the other guy’s perspective is, not that you should take it as gospel.

如果你要参战，而我们现在正与俄罗斯交战，你应该知道对方的观点是什么，而不是你应该将其视为福音。

2:15:11 And then from Netanyahu’s perspective, I would imagine Israel has a lot of control in a lot of different areas, but they have been losing the internet battle very, very badly, and it’s a major problem for Israel.

然后从内塔尼亚胡的角度来看，我认为以色列在很多不同领域拥有很大的控制权，但他们在互联网之战中输得非常非常严重，这对以色列来说是一个主要问题。

I mean, I don’t know, I still think in a very strange way everybody seems to be underestimating how grave the implications of all of this are.

我的意思是，我不知道，我仍然以一种非常奇怪的方式认为每个人似乎都低估了所有这一切的影响有多么严重。

But the view of Israel from the world is never going to be the same as what it was before.

但世界对以色列的看法将永远不会像以前一样。

And the generational divide on it is so stark.

而且代际鸿沟是如此明显。

Everybody 40 and under, who very quickly, the time goes by quickly, pretty soon the 40 and over crowd gets aged out pretty quickly, and it’s never going to be the perception of Israel that my parents’ generation…

每个 40 岁及以下的人，很快，时间过得很快，很快，40 岁及以上的人群很快就变老了，以色列永远不会认为我父母那一代......

2:16:00 It’s never going to be the perception of Israel that my parents’ generation had, ever again, because of this war.

由于这场战争，我父母那一代人对以色列的看法再也不会发生了。

I’m sure, to some degree at least, Netanyahu feels like he has to try to get his perspective into that internet conversation area.

我确信，至少在某种程度上，内塔尼亚胡觉得他必须尝试将自己的观点带入互联网对话领域。

In a way, it’s shocking.

在某种程度上，这令人震惊。

And I guess Bobby Kennedy, when he was running for president, and Vivek Ramaswamy, when he was running for president, they were doing some of it even before Donald Trump was.

我猜鲍比·肯尼迪（Bobby Kennedy）在竞选总统时，以及维韦克·拉马斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）在竞选总统时，他们甚至在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）之前就已经做了一些事情。

2:16:33 But it is crazy in a way that it took this long for politicians to figure out that it’s like, oh, I guess we got to go where the audience is.

但在某种程度上，政客们花了这么长时间才意识到，哦，我想我们必须去观众所在的地方，这在某种程度上是疯狂的。

That’s the point of doing shows.

这就是做节目的意义所在。

I mean, would you rather do a show with a million people or with 10 million people?

我的意思是，你愿意做一个有 100 万人观看的节目还是有 1000 万人观看的节目？

It’s like, you guys do CNN all the time.

就像，你们一直在看 CNN。

Why wouldn’t you do Joe Rogan’s podcast?

你为什么不做乔·罗根的播客呢？

It’s just a bigger audience, and those people get to vote too.

只是有更多的观众，而这些人也可以投票。

You reminded me with Netanyahu that one of the goals I have with the podcast is to have the kind of conversation that a historian would find useful 20 years from now, which is tough to do because you’re going to get punished for it.

你提醒我和内塔尼亚胡一起，我对播客的目标之一是进行历史学家在 20 年后会发现有用的对话，但这很难做到，因为你会因此受到惩罚。

2:17:00 Because it’s mostly I want to reveal as much information as possible without the signaling, without the…

因为我主要想在没有信号、没有……的情况下透露尽可能多的信息。

You just want to know who was this person.

你只是想知道这个人是谁。

I think that’s exactly right.

我认为这是完全正确的。

2:17:26 And I think this was what Darryl was saying.

我认为这就是达里尔所说的。

I think that the part of the awful thing of always using World War II as the next example for the next war is that it’s almost like you’re never…

我认为总是用第二次世界大战作为下一场战争的下一个例子的可怕之处在于，这几乎就像你从未……

They hate us for our freedom, or Vladimir Putin’s just mad and he wants to reconstitute the Soviet Union.

他们因为我们的自由而憎恨我们，或者弗拉基米尔·普京只是疯了，他想重建苏联。

They always insist that we can never treat our enemies as people and be like this is a real person with real grievances.

他们总是坚持认为，我们永远不能把敌人当作人来对待，这是一个真正的人，有真正的委屈。

And even, they might be a fanatic also.

甚至，他们也可能是狂热分子。

I’m not saying they’re not.

我并不是说他们不是。

There are these human qualities to it, and it’s always whatever.

它有这些人类品质，而且总是无论如何。

2:18:06 Before Obama and Hillary Clinton did the regime change war in Libya, it was all this propaganda.

在奥巴马和希拉里·克林顿发动利比亚政权更迭战争之前，都是这样的宣传。

They were like, “He’s buying up Viagra to rape all the women and he’s going to go genocide…”.

他们就像是，“他买伟哥是为了强奸所有妇女，他要进行种族灭绝......”。

This guy who had been in power for decades.

这个人已经掌权了几十年。

You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思吗？

And hadn’t done that.

并且没有这样做。

And it’s just like, oh, it’s like the way you’re supposed to think about war is almost like these people have been possessed by pure evil.

就像，哦，就像你应该思考战争的方式几乎就像这些人被纯粹的邪恶所附身一样。

They are monsters, and there’s no talking to them.

他们是怪物，没有人可以跟他们说话。

There’s no dealing with them.

没有办法和他们打交道。

It’s just simply this.

就是这么简单。

2:18:36 A good example, just this recent conflict with the Houthis, where you have the Houthis in Yemen, which Saudi Arabia invaded in 2015 with the full backing of the United States of America.

一个很好的例子，就是最近与胡塞武装的冲突，也门的胡塞武装，沙特阿拉伯于 2015 年在美国的全力支持下入侵了也门。

And the Houthis maintained power for eight years through that.

胡塞武装由此维持了八年的权力。

They maintained power until the Saudis finally gave up.

他们一直保持着权力，直到沙特最终放弃。

It was literally the Saudis were just killing hundreds of thousands of people, and then the Houthis would get a drone off at one of their oil refineries or something like that.

从字面上看，沙特人刚刚杀死了数十万人，然后胡塞武装就会在他们的炼油厂或类似的地方派出一架无人机。

2:19:03 Eventually, they were just doing enough damage that it was like, ah, shit.

最终，他们造成了足够的伤害，就像，啊，该死。

All right, this isn’t worth it anymore.

好吧，这已经不值得了。

So, they end it.

所以，他们结束了。

Anyway.

无论如何。

You have this thing.

你有这个东西。

You’re like, if they went through a total war for eight years, what you think, Trump sent in a few tomahawk missiles over there is going to stop them from doing this?

你想，如果他们经历了八年的全面战争，你认为特朗普向那里派遣了几枚战斧导弹会阻止他们这样做吗？

But then, they didn’t do anything.

但随后，他们什么也没做。

And this is according to all reporting on it.

这是根据所有相关报道得出的。

They didn’t do anything during the ceasefire.

他们在停火期间没有做任何事情。

It was only once the ceasefire broke down that they went back to attacking ships again that were coming through.

直到停火协议被打破，他们才再次开始攻击前来的船只。

2:19:33 You just see this thing where you’re like…

你只是在你喜欢的地方看到这个东西......

It’s not saying right or wrong or who’s good or bad, it’s like sometimes there’s a diplomatic solution and there’s not a military solution.

这并不是说对错或谁好谁坏，就像有时有外交解决方案而没有军事解决方案一样。

In this case, you’re like, it just shows you if there was a ceasefire here, these guys will chill out.

在这种情况下，你会想，这只是告诉你，如果这里停火，这些人就会冷静下来。

What do you want to do?

你想做什么？

Again, do you want to go to total war with it?

再说一遍，你想和它全面战争吗？

Because we could overthrow the Houthis, if the US invades Yemen.

因为如果美国入侵也门，我们就可以推翻胡塞武装。

That’s what it would take.

这就是需要的。

2:19:58 It’s like, does anyone here really have the appetite for another catastrophic war in the Middle East against the poorest country in the Middle East?

这就好像，这里有人真的愿意在中东与中东最贫穷的国家发生另一场灾难性的战争吗？

Or we could pursue this diplomatic route, which seemed…

或者我们可以走这条外交路线，这似乎……

I’m just saying, based on the evidence that they weren’t attacking ships during the ceasefire, seems like there could be a diplomatic solution here.

我只是说，根据他们在停火期间没有攻击船只的证据，似乎可以通过外交解决方案。

There’s just a lot.

有很多。

If you make everybody monsters and they’re not human beings, you can’t do diplomacy with monsters, you can’t negotiate with monsters, but you can with humans.

如果你把每个人都变成怪物而不是人类，你就不能与怪物进行外交，你不能与怪物谈判，但你可以与人类。

2:20:35 To our earlier discussion, maybe there are times where you shouldn’t negotiate or you can’t negotiate with humans, but it’s better if you can.

对于我们之前的讨论，也许有些时候你不应该或不能与人类谈判，但如果可以的话那就更好了。

We could use a lot more of that thinking.

我们可以更多地利用这种想法。

Can we take that idea and move to the war in Ukraine?

我们可以接受这个想法并转向乌克兰战争吗？

Sure.

当然。

What do you think is the path for peace there?

您认为那里的和平之路是什么？

I think what Trump is pursuing is infinitely preferable to what Biden was doing.

我认为特朗普所追求的比拜登所做的要好得多。

2:20:52 What puts Donald Trump…

是什么让唐纳德·特朗普……

And I don’t think everything he’s done has been perfect, and I really did not like that mineral deal that he was floating out for a while there.

我不认为他所做的一切都是完美的，而且我真的不喜欢他在那儿漂浮一段时间的矿物交易。

I think maybe that might be the best thing that came out of that Oval Office thing, is that maybe that Donald Trump is going to be very tough to do business like this, and it’s like we shouldn’t be doing this business deal anyway.

我认为这可能是椭圆形办公室事件中产生的最好的结果，即唐纳德·特朗普可能会很难做这样的生意，而且我们无论如何都不应该做这笔生意。

2:21:23 And by the way, I don’t think we should do it on a few…

顺便说一句，我认为我们不应该在一些......

Number one, principally, I think it is like bullying Ukraine out of resources.

第一，我认为这就像欺负乌克兰剥夺资源一样。

From what I understand, they don’t even have that many fine minerals, but whatever.

据我了解，他们甚至没有那么多优质矿物质，但无论如何。

But it’s also, if he was selling it to Zelenskyy, that’s a security guarantee.

但如果他把它卖给泽连斯基，这也是一种安全保证。

Because, hey, if we’re in business, then if Putin messes with you, he’s messing with us.

因为，嘿，如果我们在做生意，那么如果普京惹恼了你，他就是在惹恼我们。

2:21:46 But from my perspective, that’s the whole point, is you don’t want to get into the business of giving out security guarantees.

但从我的角度来看，这就是重点，你不想涉足提供安全保证的业务。

This is why George Washington was against entangling alliances.

这就是乔治·华盛顿反对纠缠联盟的原因。

You give out war guarantees to too many places, you might have to fight a lot more wars than you otherwise would’ve fought.

如果你向太多地方提供战争保证，你可能不得不打比原本打的更多的战争。

And also, there’s simply…

而且，还有简单的……

We’re in this weird position where America postures like they’re so tough.

我们正处于一个奇怪的境地，美国摆出一副强硬的姿态。

But really, when it comes down to it, we’re not going to war in Ukraine.

但实际上，归根结底，我们不会在乌克兰发生战争。

There’s no political will here.

这里没有政治意愿。

I’m sorry, try to convince the American people we should send our boys to…

对不起，试着说服美国人民我们应该把我们的孩子送到……

2:22:16 I understand you’re from the region or you have roots from there, but to the average American, the idea of going to war over whether Luhansk is ruled by Kiev or Moscow is just…

我知道你来自该地区，或者你有那里的根源，但对于普通美国人来说，为了卢甘斯克是由基辅还是莫斯科统治而发动战争的想法只是……

They don’t even know what Luhansk is.

他们甚至不知道卢甘斯克是什么。

And if they met someone from there, they would probably just assume they were Russian.

如果他们遇到来自那里的人，他们可能会认为他们是俄罗斯人。

You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思吗？

And they might be, but whatever.

他们可能是，但无论如何。

2:22:36 I think the first step to a path to peace is that you have to want to get a path to peace.

我认为通往和平之路的第一步是你必须想要走上一条通往和平的道路。

I think Trump’s doing a good job in that.

我认为特朗普在这方面做得很好。

Do you think all three sides want peace, from what you understand?

据您了解，您认为三方都希望和平吗？

2:22:43 Obviously Trump legitimately, fully, with an urgency wants peace.

显然，特朗普合法地、充分地、迫切地想要和平。

I think, for sure, Trump wants peace.

我认为，特朗普当然想要和平。

2:22:51 I also think Putin wants to wrap the conflict up.

我还认为普京想要结束冲突。

And I think that Putin has been willing to deal through the entire lead up to the war and pretty much throughout the war, and there’s been a lot of solid reporting on this.

我认为普京一直愿意处理整个战争爆发之前以及整个战争期间的情况，并且对此有很多可靠的报道。

I mean, the sources on it are pretty impeccable.

我的意思是，它的来源非常完美。

The head of NATO…

北约首脑...

Stoltenberg?

斯托尔滕贝格？

I always mess up his name.

我总是把他的名字弄乱。

He literally said that in late 2021 that Vladimir Putin actually sent a draft agreement to NATO, and that his condition for not invading…

他字面意思是，2021年底，弗拉基米尔·普京实际上向北约发送了一份协议草案，并且他提出了不入侵的条件……

He is like, I will not invade, but you have to put it in writing.

他就像，我不会入侵，但你必须把它写下来。

He sent a draft treaty to them, “You have to put in writing that Ukraine will not join NATO.”.

他向他们发送了一份条约草案，“你们必须以书面形式表明乌克兰不会加入北约”。

2:23:36 And then Stoltenberg bragged about how he said, “No, because we won’t let Vladimir Putin dictate to us whether we can expand NATO or not.”.

然后斯托尔滕贝格吹嘘他是如何说的，“不，因为我们不会让弗拉基米尔·普京向我们发号施令，我们是否可以扩大北约。”。

And then he was bragging.

然后他就开始吹牛了。

He was like, “And look what he got, more NATO expansion, Finland, and this and that, so look at that.”.

他说，“看看他得到了什么，更多的北约扩张，芬兰，还有这个那个，所以看看那个。”。

And it didn’t even seem to notice that, wait a minute, you’re admitting that you could have just promised not to bring Ukraine into NATO and saved hundreds of thousands of lives?

它甚至似乎没有注意到，等一下，你承认你本可以承诺不让乌克兰加入北约并拯救数十万人的生命？

Seems like it would’ve been a much better deal.

看起来这会是一笔更好的交易。

It’s going to be a much better deal than what Ukraine will ultimately end up getting.

这将是一个比乌克兰最终得到的更好的协议。

2:24:07 I think also Joe Biden’s CIA director, who was a CIA director a whole four years, William Burns, when he was ambassador to Russia, he wrote the Nyet Means Nyet.

我想还有乔·拜登的中央情报局局长，他担任中央情报局局长整整四年，威廉·伯恩斯，当他担任驻俄罗斯大使时，他写了《Nyet Means Nyet》。

And again, this was dumped by Julian Assange.

再一次，这被朱利安阿桑奇抛弃了。

This wasn’t for the public.

这不适合公众。

This was just him writing to Condoleezza Rice to tell the secretary of state his assessment.

这只是他写信给康多莉扎·赖斯，告诉国务卿他的评估。

And he said that, his exact words were, “A decision Russia does not want to have to make.”.

他说，他的原话是“俄罗斯不想做出的决定”。

This was the decision about whether to invade the Ukraine or not.

这是关于是否入侵乌克兰的决定。

He was like, “They say, if you keep pushing for Ukrainian entry into NATO, this could lead to a civil war and even worse.

他说，“他们说，如果你继续推动乌克兰加入北约，这可能会导致内战，甚至更糟。

And in that situation, Russia would have to decide whether or not to intervene.

在这种情况下，俄罗斯必须决定是否干预。

A decision Russia does not want to have to make.”.

俄罗斯不想做出这个决定。”

2:24:51 So, essentially I think it’s pretty clear from all sides that Putin didn’t want it to come to this.

所以，从本质上讲，我认为从各方面来看，普京都不希望事情发展到这一步。

Even after the coup in 2014, he took Crimea, but he didn’t invade the country.

即使在2014年政变之后，他占领了克里米亚，但他没有入侵该国。

He may have sent special forces in, but I mean not the full-scale 2022 invasion.

他可能派遣了特种部队，但我指的不是 2022 年的全面入侵。

And even the civil war, going all that…

甚至内战，所有这些......

I’m not defending the decision.

我不为这个决定辩护。

I’m just saying it seemed like he reluctantly [inaudible 02:25:19].

我只是说他看起来很不情愿 [听不清 02:25:19]。

2:25:20 What was it?

那是什么？

In 2014 or ’15, when they had the plebiscites in Crimea and in the Donbas region, and they voted to be independent, he didn’t take them then.

2014年或15年，当他们在克里米亚和顿巴斯地区举行公民投票时，他们投票决定独立，但他当时没有接受。

I mean, he could have used that as a pretense for, hey, they voted to be with us, and he didn’t.

我的意思是，他本可以以此为借口，嘿，他们投票支持我们，但他没有。

I think he wants to end the war.

我认为他想结束战争。

2:25:38 Zelenskyy, from everything he’s said publicly, seems like he still feels like…

从泽伦斯基公开所说的一切来看，他似乎仍然感觉……

I’m just taking him at his word here, that it’s like, no, we could end the war, but we got to end the war…

我只是相信他的话，就像，不，我们可以结束战争，但我们必须结束战争......

It seems like he’s moved from his position being like, no, we have to reclaim all of our territory, to now his position is like, all right, maybe we don’t reclaim all of it, but we got to be given some type of security guarantee in the future.

看起来他的立场似乎已经从“不，我们必须收回我们所有的领土”转变为“好吧，也许我们不会收回所有领土，但我们将来必须得到某种类型的安全保证”。

2:26:07 I think the problem with that is just, again…

我认为问题在于……

I don’t mean to be cruel about this, because it sucks that there’s little countries that are next to big countries that get bullied around about them, but there also is a bit of an entitlement to demanding a security guarantee.

我并不是有意对此残酷，因为与大国相邻的小国家受到欺凌，这很糟糕，但也有一些权利要求安全保证。

What exactly do you mean?

你到底是什么意思？

From America?

来自美国？

What?

什么？

That we’ll go to war if you’re invaded?

如果你们被入侵我们就会开战？

Why do we owe that to anybody?

为什么我们要欠任何人这个？

That’s crazy.

这太疯狂了。

I’m sorry.

对不起。

2:26:34 You can’t just sign up to say that we’ll go to war if anybody invades anybody.

你不能只是签名说，如果有人入侵任何人，我们就会开战。

I hope nobody invades anybody, but I don’t want us to get dragged into…

我希望没有人侵犯任何人，但我不希望我们被拖入……

That’s a recipe for always being at war, and I don’t think that’s right for our country.

这是永远处于战争状态的秘诀，我认为这不适合我们的国家。

2:26:49 So essentially, I think Trump and Putin want peace.

所以本质上，我认为特朗普和普京想要和平。

And if that’s the case, I think we’ll ultimately get to an end of this war.

如果是这样的话，我认为我们最终将结束这场战争。

There’s a lot of stuff to say here.

这里有很多话要说。

2:26:56 Let’s actually start at the beginning, at the foundation of this.

让我们实际上从头开始，从这个基础开始。

I think the thing that we left unsaid that’s important to say is that Putin invaded Ukraine in February 24th, 2022.

我认为我们没有说但重要的是普京于 2022 年 2 月 24 日入侵乌克兰。

And I think he is, at least from my perspective, the person who started the war.

我认为，至少从我的角度来看，他是战争的始作俑者。

You could talk about NATO expansion.

你可以谈论北约的扩张。

You could talk about any other thing that led to it.

你可以谈论导致这件事的任何其他事情。

You could start at the collapse of the Soviet Union.

你可以从苏联解体开始。

You can go all the way back, as he did, 1,000 years.

你可以像他一样追溯到 1000 年前。

2:27:33 The reality is, and this goes to our deep discussion about the morality of war, no matter the reasons, the guy that pulls the trigger first non-accidentally and keeps pulling the trigger, that’s the guy who’s at fault.

现实是，这涉及我们对战争道德的深入讨论，无论出于何种原因，首先非偶然地扣动扳机并不断扣动扳机的人，就是有过错的人。

Oh, I agree.

哦，我同意。

2:27:48 I’ll say one standard, one standard for everybody.

我会说一个标准，每个人都有一个标准。

The standard that I laid out before is the same one I…

我之前制定的标准与我之前制定的标准相同......

Did you absolutely have to do that?

你绝对必须这样做吗？

Once you start killing people by the hundreds of thousands, was there any other option?

一旦你开始屠杀数十万人，还有其他选择吗？

Are you telling me you absolutely had to do this?

你是告诉我你绝对必须这样做吗？

And I don’t think that’s right.

我认为这是不对的。

2:28:08 My friend, Scott Horton, who I was talking to you about, just a totally brilliant guy, even in his book, there’s a whole chapter of all the other options of what Vladimir Putin could do.

我的朋友斯科特·霍顿，我正在和你们谈论他，他是一个非常聪明的人，甚至在他的书中，有一整章讲述了弗拉基米尔·普京可以做的所有其他选择。

So, you’re absolutely right.

所以，你是完全正确的。

And there’s a weird thing where people say, “If you say that the West provoked this conflict, that is a very different thing than saying that this invasion was justified.”.

有一件奇怪的事情，人们说，“如果你说西方挑起了这场冲突，那与说这次入侵是正当的是完全不同的事情。”。

2:28:31 In the same way that if you were at a bar and someone goes and spits in another guy’s face and then he pulls out a gun and murders them right there, he’s not justified in doing that.

就像你在酒吧里，有人朝另一个人脸上吐口水，然后他掏出枪，当场谋杀了他们，他这样做是没有道理的。

That is not okay.

那不行。

You don’t get to murder someone because they spit in your face.

你不能因为某人朝你脸上吐口水而谋杀他。

Also, if you were talking about why did he murder that guy, I’d be like, oh, because he walked up and spit in his face.

另外，如果你说他为什么要谋杀那个人，我会说，哦，因为他走上前朝他脸上吐口水。

That’s why it happened.

这就是它发生的原因。

And that is essentially my contention about this war.

这基本上就是我对这场战争的看法。

I think it’s just crystal clear that that’s why it happened.

我认为这就是它发生的原因，这一点非常清楚。

2:29:02 Listen, it may be right or it may be wrong, but if China or Russia ever backed a street putsch to overthrow the democratically-elected government in Mexico, and then install a pro-Chinese or a pro-Russian government, and then started pumping arms into that conflict, and then kept floating out the idea that they were going to bring them into their military alliance, DC would simply not allow that.

听着，这可能是对的，也可能是错的，但如果中国或俄罗斯支持一场街头政变，推翻墨西哥民选政府，然后建立一个亲中国或亲俄罗斯的政府，然后开始向这场冲突注入武器，然后不断提出他们将把它们纳入军事联盟的想法，华盛顿根本不会允许这样做。

You cannot do that, any more than the Soviet Union could put nukes in Cuba.

你不能这样做，就像苏联不能在古巴放置核武器一样。

Sorry.

抱歉。

That should be said that that’s really Cold War, 20th century, and neocon thinking.

应该说，这确实是冷战、20世纪、新保守主义思维。

2:29:35 It is the way the world works, but that’s…

这就是世界运转的方式，但那是……

I don’t think…

我不认为……

You should still punish…

你还是应该惩罚...

Listen, whether you’re talking about the neoconservatives or going way before the neo…

听着，无论你是在谈论新保守派还是走在新保守派之前……

2:29:48 Any other group that has ever had control of US foreign policy, going back to the Cold Warriors, the Truman administration, the Eisenhower administration, I think you could take this back to Thomas Jefferson if this happened in 1801, there is simply no way that they would allow a foreign great power to overthrow their government, and then bring our neighbor into their military alliance.

任何其他曾经控制过美国外交政策的团体，追溯到冷战时期、杜鲁门政府、艾森豪威尔政府，我想你可以把这句话追溯到托马斯·杰斐逊，如果这发生在1801年，他们根本不可能允许一个外国大国推翻他们的政府，然后将我们的邻国纳入他们的军事联盟。

I think there’s no great power that would ever tolerate that.

我认为没有哪个大国能够容忍这种情况。

First of all, we’re in a post-nuclear world, so meaning post, there’s nuclear weapons.

首先，我们处于一个后核世界，所以意思是后核世界，有核武器。

Mm-hmm.

嗯嗯。

So, the threat of somebody being on your border is just not the same kind of threat, when you’re in nuclear power.

因此，当你拥有核力量时，某人在你边境的威胁与你所面临的威胁是不同的。

2:30:30 Which is why, you look at Finland…

这就是为什么，你看看芬兰……

No, I think in some ways it’s more of a threat in some ways.

不，我认为在某些方面它更像是一种威胁。

Putin is not upset about Finland joining NATO nearly as much.

普京对芬兰加入北约并没有那么不满。

I’m just saying, Vladimir Putin in his own words, what his issue always was, was the military hardware that comes along with NATO membership.

我只是说，用弗拉基米尔·普京自己的话来说，他的问题一直是，伴随着北约成员身份而来的军事硬件。

2:30:47 It’s not just that you get into NATO, but then you get all that military hardware there.

不仅仅是你加入了北约，而且你还在那里获得了所有的军事硬件。

And he made a huge deal about the dual-use rocket launchers in Poland, which George W.

他还对波兰的两用火箭发射器做了大笔交易，乔治·W·布什 (George W.

Bush put there after 9/11.

布什在 9/11 之后把它放在那里。

2:31:09 I think all of those things are factors.

我认为所有这些都是因素。

I think Ukraine, Crimea being their only yearlong warm-water port, I think there’s several elements to it.

我认为乌克兰、克里米亚是他们唯一的常年温水港，我认为这有几个因素。

But I do think a huge part of it is that also the country’s been invaded through Ukraine multiple times.

但我确实认为其中很大一部分原因是该国也多次通过乌克兰遭到入侵。

I think very reasonably, grading on a curve of how reasonable governments are, he saw that as a security threat.

我认为非常合理的是，按照政府合理程度的曲线进行评分，他将其视为安全威胁。

We should make very clear, because the way that comes across, the full responsibility of the invasion of Ukraine lays at the hands of Vladimir Putin.

我们应该说得非常清楚，因为从表面上看，入侵乌克兰的全部责任都在弗拉基米尔·普京身上。

Sure.

当然。

2:31:46 I completely agree with that.

我完全同意这一点。

Vladimir Putin launched a war where…

弗拉基米尔·普京发动了一场战争……

Again, I don’t know exactly what the numbers are.

再说一次，我不知道确切的数字是多少。

I’ve read a whole bunch of estimates, some that contradict each other.

我读过一大堆估计，其中一些相互矛盾。

But the consensus seems to be it’s at least in the hundreds of thousands, possibly well north of a million, if you’re talking about the casualties on both sides.

但共识似乎是，如果你谈论的是双方的伤亡，至少有数十万人，甚至可能超过一百万。

Vladimir Putin launched a war that led to that, and he’s responsible for that.

弗拉基米尔·普京发动了一场导致这一切的战争，他对此负有责任。

2:32:12 That being said, you can also point out that really what we’re talking about here is the George H.W.

话虽这么说，你也可以指出，我们这里真正讨论的是乔治·H·W·布什 (George H.W.

Bush administration, the Clintons, Bush again, Obama, and then Trump.

布什政府，克林顿夫妇，再次是布什，奥巴马，然后是特朗普。

And the people who were in charge of the foreign policy in those administrations, the same ones who gave us Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, they were also in charge of our European foreign policy.

在这些政府中负责外交政策的人，也就是给我们伊拉克、阿富汗、利比亚、叙利亚、索马里、也门的人，他们也负责我们的欧洲外交政策。

The most reckless policy of all was their NATO policy, and that they drove up to this conflict with Russia, with nothing but off-ramp after off-ramp after off-ramp, and consciously decided that we’re not going to take any of those, we’re going to drive it all the way up to this point.

最鲁莽的政策是他们的北约政策，他们推动了与俄罗斯的这场冲突，除了一个又一个的出口匝道之外什么都没有，并有意识地决定我们不会采取任何这些，我们将一路推动到这一点。

2:32:58 Thomas Friedman for The New York Times interviewed George Kennan in 1998, and George Kennan was the Cold Warrior.

《纽约时报》的托马斯·弗里德曼 (Thomas Friedman) 于 1998 年采访了乔治·凯南 (George Kennan)，乔治·凯南是冷战战士。

He is credited as founding the containment strategy in the Cold War.

他被誉为冷战遏制战略的创始人。

He was talking about the first round of NATO expansion, which he and many other foreign policy graybeards opposed.

他谈论的是第一轮北约扩张，他和许多其他外交政策的灰胡子人士都反对这一计划。

2:33:21 He was like, “This is the worst thing we could possibly do after the fall of the Soviet Union, to now say that we had this alliance in NATO that was an anti-Russian military alliance, and now that the Soviet Union isn’t there anymore, and it’s Boris Yeltsin’s Russia, that now we’re going to expand NATO because of that.”.

他说，“这是苏联解体后我们可能做的最糟糕的事情，现在说我们在北约有一个反俄罗斯军事联盟，而现在苏联已经不存在了，而现在是鲍里斯·叶利钦的俄罗斯，因此我们现在要扩大北约。”。

He literally said in 1998, he goes, “The people advocating that we expand NATO are going to continue advocating it and advocating it and advocating it.

他在 1998 年确实说过，“那些主张我们扩大北约的人将继续主张、主张、主张。

And then there will be a Russian reaction.

然后俄罗斯就会做出反应。

And then they’ll say, ‘See?

然后他们会说，‘看到了吗？

That’s why we were right to expand NATO.’.

这就是为什么我们扩大北约是正确的。”

But they’ll get this completely wrong.”.

但他们会完全错误地理解这一点。”

When do you think a deal is reached?

您认为什么时候可以达成协议？

I really have no idea what the timeline’s going to look like.

我真的不知道时间表会是什么样子。

2:34:00 I’m hoping sooner rather than later.

我希望早点而不是晚点。

I think Donald Trump would love nothing more than to have some type of big spectacle of ending this war, some type of big press conference or some type of…

我认为唐纳德·特朗普最喜欢的就是结束这场战争的某种盛大场面、某种大型新闻发布会或某种……

You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思吗？

My guess would be that’s where Trump’s mind is, is how to do this in the best way that sells him the best.

我的猜测是，特朗普的心思就是如何以最好的方式做到这一点，让他最受青睐。

2:34:28 I think that already we’re in a position where Donald Trump has put a lot of political capital chips into the middle of the table that, “I can end this war.”, and he’s going to look very, very bad if he can’t.

我认为我们已经处于这样的境地：唐纳德·特朗普已经在桌子中间投入了很多政治资本筹码，“我可以结束这场战争。”如果他不能结束这场战争，他看起来会非常非常糟糕。

So, he’s very highly incentivized to get this thing done as quick as possible, and so hopefully that can happen soon.

因此，他非常有动力尽快完成这件事，因此希望这能很快发生。

It would be great if it could happen in the next month.

如果能在下个月发生那就太好了。

People on both sides outside of Donald Trump are telling me that it’s a process.

唐纳德·特朗普之外的双方人士都告诉我，这是一个过程。

Yeah.

是的。

There’s a implication it’s going to take a while, which I really hate.

这意味着这需要一段时间，我真的很讨厌。

2:35:04 I really love…

我真的很喜欢……

Yeah, it’s a shame.

是的，这很遗憾。

…

……

2:35:09 Donald Trump’s urgency.

唐纳德·特朗普的紧迫性。

It’s also terrible.

这也太可怕了。

2:35:10 There’s something really awful.

有件事真的很糟糕。

Innocent people dying in war at any time is terrible, but there is something profoundly awful…

任何时候无辜的人死于战争都是可怕的，但有一些事情是极其可怕的……

I’m old enough now that I’ve seen this a few times happen, or I’ve lived through it a few times, I’ve read about it happening earlier.

我现在已经足够大了，我已经见过这种事发生过几次了，或者我已经经历过几次了，我之前读到过这样的事情发生过。

Once you’ve already decided the war’s over and people still die, there’s something almost sadder about that, because it’s always like, “Come on.

一旦你已经决定战争结束了，但人们仍然死去，就会有一些更悲伤的事情，因为它总是像，“来吧。

You already know…”.

你已经知道了……”。

2:35:37 There’d be a bombing campaign in Afghanistan when we already knew we were a few months away from ending the war.

当我们知道距离结束战争还有几个月的时间时，阿富汗就会发生轰炸行动。

You’re like, “You got to kill more people on the way out.

你会说，“你必须在出去的时候杀死更多的人。

We already know we’re leaving.

我们已经知道我们要离开了。

We already know.”, because there’s something…

我们已经知道了。”，因为有一些东西......

At least in the beginning, they could hide behind this justification or they could be like, “Listen, we’re going to overthrow the Taliban and we’re going to install our new government.

至少在一开始，他们可能会躲在这个理由背后，或者他们可能会说，“听着，我们将推翻塔利班，我们将建立新政府。

They’re going to be a democracy.

他们将成为一个民主国家。

It’s going really good.

进展非常顺利。

We have to do this in order to do this bigger project.”.

我们必须这样做才能完成这个更大的项目。”

2:36:05 But then by the end, you’re like, we’re not even pretending anymore that we’re doing anything more positive.

但到最后，你会觉得，我们甚至不再假装我们在做任何更积极的事情。

It’s just someone dying in a senseless thing we never should have been in.

这只是一个人在一场我们不应该经历的毫无意义的事情中死去。

In the spirit of that, that’s why I traveled to Moscow, and will travel to Moscow again in the near future to likely interview Vladimir Putin, and hopefully travel back to Ukraine, which I did, to talk again with Volodymyr Zelenskyy or with whoever the future president is.

本着这一精神，这就是我前往莫斯科的原因，并将在不久的将来再次前往莫斯科，可能会采访弗拉基米尔·普京，并希望像我那样回到乌克兰，与弗拉基米尔·泽伦斯基或未来的总统再次交谈。

You’ll be the only guy who’s interviewed both of them, I think…

我想你将是唯一采访过他们两人的人……

Yeah.

是的。

…

……

2:36:37 during this war.

在这场战争期间。

And I have to say, the border crossing is getting increasingly more intense.

不得不说，越境现象越来越激烈。

Yeah, I went to Canada last week and I didn’t care for that, so I’m sure.

是的，我上周去了加拿大，我对此并不关心，所以我确定。

Primarily, it’s the nations at war, as it was in Ukraine.

主要是国家处于战争状态，就像乌克兰那样。

2:36:47 It’s dangerous to do both.

两者都做是危险的。

I think something that’s a little bit foreign, no pun intended, to America is, we’ve fought in a lot of wars over the last, say, 25 years, 50 years, whatever.

我认为对美国来说有点陌生，没有双关语的意思是，我们在过去打了很多战争，比如说，25 年，50 年，等等。

2:36:57 But all of them, including, in a way, the World Wars even in the 20th century, it’s like…

但所有这些，在某种程度上，包括 20 世纪的世界大战，就像……

But it’s been since 1812 that we fought one on our shores.

但自 1812 年起，我们就在自己的海岸上与敌人发生了战斗。

And none of the other ones…

而其他的都没有……

I guess Pearl Harbor, but even Pearl Harbor, that was a one-off, and it was only…

我猜珍珠港事件，但即使是珍珠港事件，那也是一次性的，而且只是……

It was America technically, but it wasn’t mainland America.

从技术上讲，这是美国，但不是美国大陆。

So, we’re fighting wars halfway across the world.

所以，我们正在地球另一边打仗。

2:37:39 But it is a very different thing for two neighboring countries to fight, and even though most of the fighting’s been done on the Ukrainian side, not all of it.

但对于两个邻国来说，打架是一件非常不同的事情，尽管大部分战斗是在乌克兰方面进行的，但并非全部。

I think there still are areas…

我觉得还是有一些地方...

Mm-hmm.

嗯嗯。

…

……

2:37:51 inside Russia’s borders where there’s action.

在俄罗斯境内有行动的地方。

There’s something so much more real about that.

这其中有更真实的东西。

Mm-hmm.

嗯嗯。

The wars we’re used to are we send a military that is a hundred thousand times more sophisticated than anything it’ll be meeting on the ground over to a third world country to go do that.

我们习惯的战争是，我们派遣一支比在地面上遇到的任何军队都复杂十万倍的军队到第三世界国家去执行任务。

2:37:58 As we’ve found out over the years, there’s still a lot of challenges to that, even when your side has night vision goggles and the other one doesn’t, and your side can call in airstrikes and the other one can’t, and your side has all the sophisticated training and the other side’s practicing on monkey bars, still very hard to occupy a people and dominate them and defeat an insurgency.

正如我们多年来发现的那样，这仍然存在很多挑战，即使你的一方有夜视镜而另一方没有，你的一方可以呼叫空袭而另一方不能，并且你的一方拥有所有复杂的训练而另一方在猴子栏上练习，仍然很难占领一个民族并统治他们并击败叛乱分子。

2:38:27 But that’s very different than two nation states right next to each other on the border.

但这与边境上毗邻的两个民族国家有很大不同。

There’s just a real feeling of survival in that moment.

那一刻有一种真正的生存感。

And I do think that probably I don’t understand this as well as you do, and probably you don’t even understand it as well as maybe an older generation of Russians and Ukrainians would.

我确实认为我可能不像你那样理解这一点，而且可能你甚至不像老一代的俄罗斯人和乌克兰人那样理解它。

But there’s also something about both Russia and Ukraine, in their own ways, got so absolutely fucked over in the 20th century, multiple times, in a way that Americans just…

但俄罗斯和乌克兰也有一些事情，以他们自己的方式，在 20 世纪多次被彻底搞砸了，以至于美国人只是……

It is just too foreign into us to even understand anything like that.

这对我们来说太陌生了，甚至无法理解这样的事情。

Millions of people starving to death, being invaded, the entire nation collapsing.

数百万人被饿死，被入侵，整个国家崩溃。

2:39:16 The Russian government collapsed twice in 100 years.

俄罗斯政府一百年来两次垮台。

That’s traumatic.

这很痛苦。

We just simply have never been through anything like that.

我们只是从来没有经历过这样的事情。

When you have that trauma as a society and then there’s a war on your border, I’m sure there’s a whole lot of different kind of feelings that we just can’t relate to.

当你作为一个社会遭受创伤，然后边境爆发战争时，我确信会有很多我们无法理解的不同感受。

Plus a history in both nations of super sophisticated and expansive intelligence agencies.

再加上两国都有超级复杂和庞大的情报机构的历史。

Right, right, right.

对，对，对。

2:39:43 Yeah, that’s a very good point.

是的，这是一个很好的观点。

Yeah.

是的。

You host a podcast called Part of the Problem.

您主持一个名为“问题的一部分”的播客。

Yes.

是的。

What have you learned through that whole process of interviewing some interesting people?

通过采访一些有趣的人的整个过程，您学到了什么？

2:39:52 And are there topics you cover that make you sweat still to this day, like it feels like going into the fire.

是否有一些话题让你至今仍流汗，感觉就像走进火里一样。

What I’ve learned just from the podcast is that there’s an interesting relationship that you build with your audience.

我从播客中了解到的是，你与观众建立了一种有趣的关系。

2:40:05 I travel a lot, and I do shows a lot, so I meet people who listen to the show.

我经常旅行，也经常演出，所以我遇到了听演出的人。

I’ve had this experience before.

我以前有过这样的经历。

I had this experience with you.

我和你有过这样的经历。

Me and you met once, I think, before today.

我想，在今天之前，我和你见过一次面。

Me and you actually met on a very interesting night.

我和你实际上是在一个非常有趣的夜晚认识的。

I don’t know if you remember this.

我不知道你是否还记得这一点。

2:40:39 It was before the Comedy Mothership was built, you came by a Joe Rogan and Friends Show at The Vulture.

在喜剧母舰建成之前，您曾在秃鹰剧院观看过乔·罗根和朋友们的表演。

Yeah.

是的。

It was while Joe was going through the shitstorm of cancel culture, and he was on the phone with Dana White and stuff in the back.

当时乔正在经历取消文化的狗屎风暴，他正在和达纳·怀特（Dana White）打电话，还有其他人在后面。

Yeah, yeah, in the back.

是啊是啊，在后面。

2:40:53 [inaudible 02:40:54]…

[听不清 02:40:54]…

It was a wild night.

这是一个疯狂的夜晚。

Quite a wild night, yeah.

真是一个疯狂的夜晚，是的。

Then at the same time, even though we just met that one time, and then we talked on the phone and now we’re doing this show, I know you already.

与此同时，尽管我们只见过一次面，然后我们通了电话，现在我们正在做这个节目，我已经认识你了。

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

是啊，是啊，是啊。

I already know you, and it’s not just that we have friends of friends, but I’ve just seen so much of your stuff that it’s like I know who you are.

我已经认识你了，不仅仅是我们有朋友的朋友，而且我刚刚看到了你的很多东西，就好像我知道你是谁一样。

2:41:04 And then it’s weird because people come up to you and they’re like that.

然后这很奇怪，因为人们来找你，他们就是这样。

It’s like they know you.

就像他们认识你一样。

I’ve had this experience.

我有过这样的经历。

I had this experience with Joe.

我和乔有过这样的经历。

I knew him before I knew him.

在我认识他之前我就认识他了。

2:41:18 That was one of the things that I really learned from doing the podcast over the years, was how much that’s actually a relationship.

这是我多年来从做播客中真正学到的事情之一，那就是这实际上是一种关系。

You actually have a relationship with your listeners.

您实际上与听众有关系。

In the same way that you can’t lie to people in your life, you also can’t lie to your…

就像你不能对生活中的人撒谎一样，你也不能对你的……撒谎。

They’re a relationship too.

他们也是一种关系。

You can’t lie to your audience.

你不能对你的观众撒谎。

2:41:42 I think that there’s often almost shortcuts that are presented before you, but there is a payoff to not taking the shortcuts and to doing it the way you want to do it.

我认为，摆在你面前的几乎是捷径，但不走捷径并按照你想要的方式去做是有回报的。

What do you think is the number of hours it takes to form a relationship?

您认为建立关系需要多少小时？

2:41:56 Because I absolutely agree with you.

因为我完全同意你的观点。

First of all, I should say I’m a huge podcast fan.

首先，我应该说我是一个播客的超级粉丝。

I’ve listened to you as a guest and your own show a lot.

我作为嘉宾和你自己的节目听过很多次。

I think with you I’ve already crossed the threshold of hours where I feel like we’re friends, one way, and I guess because you listen to me, it’s the other way, which are separate, parallel [inaudible 02:42:20].

我想和你在一起我已经跨过了几个小时的门槛，我觉得我们是朋友，一种方式，我想因为你听我的，这是另一种方式，这是分开的，平行的[听不清02:42:20]。

Yeah, it’s very weird.

是的，这很奇怪。

2:42:20 It’s very strange in a way.

从某种程度上来说这很奇怪。

It’s very interesting.

这很有趣。

Also, there’s something there, which is more your area of expertise than mine, but there’s something there where technology is playing this wild role.

另外，还有一些东西，这更多是你的专业领域，而不是我的，但有一些东西，技术正在发挥着如此疯狂的作用。

We could have a two-way friendship…

我们可以有双向的友谊……

Yeah.

是的。

…

……

2:42:33 without actually having to meet each other, all facilitated by the machines that we built.

无需真正见面，这一切都是由我们制造的机器促成的。

It’s very trippy.

这是非常迷幻的。

I would say it’s 50 hours.

我想说是50个小时。

2:42:41 Maybe 20 to 50-hour range is when you’re like, okay.

也许 20 到 50 小时的范围是当你想的时候，好吧。

It’s interesting, in a way.

从某种程度上来说，这很有趣。

2:42:46 Before the Joe Rogan experience and what was the thing that made comedians big, the things before that used to be Letterman and Leno and Conan.

在乔·罗根的经历以及是什么让喜剧演员变得伟大之前，之前的事情曾经是莱特曼、莱诺和柯南。

Comedians would get a seven-minute set on there.

喜剧演员会在那里表演七分钟的节目。

And even if you do great, if you killed, and someone watching is like, “I love that comedian, that comedian’s amazing.”, first of all, unless they were on social media and then went and [inaudible 02:43:18], there was no way to connect.

即使你做得很好，如果你杀人了，有人看着就会说，“我喜欢那个喜剧演员，那个喜剧演员太棒了。”首先，除非他们在社交媒体上然后去[听不清02:43:18]，否则就没有办法联系。

They’d just be like, ” Love that guy.

他们只会说，“爱那个人。”

Anyway.

无论如何。

Back to my life.”.

回到我的生活。”

And then maybe you’ll remember him and maybe when he’s coming to town, you’d see, oh, that same guy I saw in Conan is going to be at the local comedy club or something, maybe.

然后也许你会记得他，也许当他进城时，你会看到，哦，我在柯南中看到的那个人可能会在当地的喜剧俱乐部或其他什么地方。

2:43:35 But then Rogan became the main thing.

但后来罗根就成了主要的事情。

And now, they didn’t just see you do seven minutes of standup.

现在，他们不仅仅看到你进行七分钟的站立表演。

They sat and listened to you for three hours.

他们坐下来听了你三个小时。

Let’s just say even off that one three-hour podcast…

我们就说，即使是一个三小时的播客……

Yeah, that’s right.

是的，没错。

…

……

2:43:49 you come away knowing a lot more about that person.

当你离开时，你会更加了解那个人。

It is not just a little taste, you know a lot about it.

这不仅仅是一点味道，你知道很多。

I probably would put the threshold at 40 to 50 hours.

我可能会把阈值定在 40 到 50 小时。

If you’ve consumed 40 to 50 hours of somebody, especially when they’re doing what we do on these shows, where you’re speaking in a very unguarded manner, even though this is your show and you asked a lot of questions, you don’t know exactly where this is going to go.

如果你已经花掉了某人 40 到 50 个小时，尤其是当他们正在做我们在这些节目中所做的事情时，你以一种非常不设防的方式说话，即使这是你的节目并且你问了很多问题，你也不知道到底会发生什么。

Then you’re seeing what I say, and then go, ” Huh.

然后你就看到我说的话了，然后走吧，”呵呵。

Okay, let me ask something based off that.

好吧，让我根据这个问一些问题。

Let me make a point based off that.”.

让我基于此提出一个观点。”

We’re both unguarded.

我们俩都毫无防备。

2:44:31 When you consume somebody like that for 40, 50 hours, you do see into their soul.

当你花上这样的人 40、50 小时，你确实能看到他们的灵魂。

I think there’s almost no way to avoid that.

我认为几乎没有办法避免这种情况。

And also, I would say if they’re not letting you see into their soul, you’ll notice that…

而且，我想说，如果他们不让你看到他们的灵魂，你会注意到......

Yeah.

是的。

…

……

2:44:45 and you know that about them.

你知道他们的情况。

This is a guarded person.

这是一个有戒心的人。

This was ultimately Kamala Harris’s issue.

这最终是卡玛拉·哈里斯的问题。

This is why she was probably correct not to do Rogan, even though everyone looks back at that and says, ” No, no, no.

这就是为什么她不做罗根的事可能是正确的，尽管每个人回想起来都会说：“不，不，不。”

This was the big disaster of her campaign.”.

这是她竞选活动的一大灾难。”

It’s like, “I don’t know.”.

就像“我不知道”。

She was so guarded in every single interview that she ever did.

她在每次采访中都如此谨慎。

Yeah.

是的。

She was always, constantly not trying to let you see who she really was.

她总是、一直不想让你看到她的真实身份。

2:45:06 And if she was going to try that on Rogan, that would’ve been so apparent to everybody involved.

如果她要在罗根身上尝试这一点，那对每个参与其中的人来说都是显而易见的。

You’ve had a lot of intense conversations on JRE.

你们就 JRE 进行了很多激烈的讨论。

2:45:18 What do you appreciate most about Joe as a human being, as a conversation partner?

作为一个人，作为一个谈话伙伴，你最欣赏乔的什么？

I can’t overstate how much I love Joe and how much I admire him.

我无法夸大我对乔的爱和钦佩。

Not as much as Ron Paul.

没有罗恩·保罗那么多。

2:45:35 Just let’s be clear.

让我们说清楚。

There’s a hierarchy here.

这里有一个层次结构。

He’s close, man.

他很接近，伙计。

Wow.

哇。

2:45:42 Holy shit.

天啊。

There’s very few…

数量很少……

That means a lot coming through you.

这意味着你会经历很多事情。

Ron Paul and Joe Rogan, those are like my generals, and I’m a soldier.

罗恩·保罗和乔·罗根，他们就像我的将军，而我是一名士兵。

[inaudible 02:45:55].

[听不清 02:45:55]。

Those are my guys.

这些是我的人。

2:45:55 If Joe Rogan pointed to some guy and said, ” You got to go fight that guy right now.”.

如果乔·罗根指着某个人说：“你现在就要去和那个人战斗。”。

I’d be like, ” All right, I got to go fight that guy.”.

我会说，“好吧，我得去和那个家伙战斗。”

Ron Paul too.

罗恩·保罗也是。

It’s both very personally for me.

这对我来说都是非常个人化的。

Ron Paul introduced me to a set of ideas that changed my life, and I’m just enormously grateful for that.

罗恩·保罗向我介绍了一系列改变我生活的想法，我对此非常感激。

2:46:16 I was a huge Joe Rogan fan before the Joe Rogan experience.

在体验乔·罗根之前，我是乔·罗根的超级粉丝。

I’m an old-school Joe Rogan head.

我是一个老派的乔·罗根头。

I used to go on joerogan.net when…

我以前经常上 joerogan.net，当时……

Holy shit.

天啊。

…

……

2:46:26 websites used to end with that.

网站过去常常以此结束。

Before whatever it is.

不管是什么之前。

Before everything…

在一切之前……

…

……

2003.

2003年。

I was a fan of his before he confronted Carlos Mencia.

在他与卡洛斯·门西亚对峙之前，我是他的粉丝。

2:46:31 And the day he confronted Carlos Mencia, I watched the video on his website and was like, “Oh, shit.

在他与卡洛斯·门西亚对峙的那天，我在他的网站上观看了视频，然后说：“哦，该死。

Joe Rogan called him out, dude.

乔·罗根叫他出去，伙计。

This is the craziest thing ever.”.

这是有史以来最疯狂的事情。”

I was a fan that when he started the podcast, I remember going, ” This is going to be big, because he’s going to be so good at this, because he’s got so much interesting shit to say..”.

我是他的粉丝，当他开始播客时，我记得我说过，“这会很重要，因为他会非常擅长这个，因为他有很多有趣的事情要说……”。

Interesting.

有趣的。

I didn’t realize it was going to be quite what it became, but I did think like, oh, this is going to be an awesome thing.

我没有意识到它会变成这样，但我确实想，哦，这将是一件很棒的事情。

2:46:54 So, there’s that.

所以，就是这样。

I always really admired him and I was always a huge fan of his.

我一直非常钦佩他，而且我一直是他的超级粉丝。

Not only did he change my life, but he changed all of my friends’ lives.

他不仅改变了我的生活，也改变了我所有朋友的生活。

It’s a very weird situation.

这是一个非常奇怪的情况。

He’s the Santa Claus of my world.

他是我世界的圣诞老人。

2:47:22 I don’t know, man.

我不知道，伙计。

He’s just a very genuine person.

他只是一个非常真诚的人。

I think he really derives a lot of pleasure out of the fact that he gets to help…

我认为他真的从他能够提供帮助的事实中获得了很多乐趣......

Mm-hmm.

嗯嗯。

…

……

2:47:36 the people who he sees as the good guys, the guy’s worth helping.

他认为是好人的人，值得帮助的人。

I just think that’s such an unbelievable thing.

我只是觉得这是一件令人难以置信的事情。

The first time Rogan had me on his podcast was, I believe, in 2016.

我相信，罗根第一次让我出现在他的播客上是在 2016 年。

I might’ve had 5,000 followers or something like that.

我可能有 5,000 名粉丝或类似的数量。

I was completely unknown.

我完全不认识。

I did nothing for him.

我没有为他做任何事。

It was just the fact that he heard me on Ari’s show and he was like, “Oh, I like what this guy’s got to say.

事实上，他在阿里的节目中听到了我的声音，他说：“哦，我喜欢这个人说的话。

I think this is cool.

我认为这很酷。

Let’s talk about it.”.

我们来谈谈吧。”

2:48:12 Again, he’s just been such a great guy to me.

再说一遍，他对我来说是一个很棒的人。

And at every little angle, everything you open for him, he takes care of you better than anybody else does.

在每一个小角度、每一个你为他敞开的地方，他都会比其他任何人都更好地照顾你。

You’d work his club, his club pays better than anybody else does.

你会在他的俱乐部工作，他的俱乐部的薪水比其他任何人都高。

He’s always great to the people who are around him.

他对周围的人总是很好。

I have a wife, I have two little kids.

我有一个妻子，我有两个小孩。

He’s put me in a situation where I can provide a great life for them.

他让我处于一个可以为他们提供美好生活的境地。

Don’t get me wrong, I did something with the opportunity.

别误会我的意思，我利用这个机会做了一些事情。

It’s not like he just gave me…

他又不是刚刚给了我……

He gave me the opportunity and I did something with it.

他给了我机会，我利用这个机会做了一些事情。

But still, he didn’t have to give me that opportunity.

但他仍然不必给我这个机会。

I will go to my grave being enormously grateful for his friendship and the platform that he’s given me.

我将在进入坟墓时非常感谢他的友谊和他给我的平台。

2:49:06 I try not to abuse this, but there’s been a few points over the years where I was like, “I really need advice on this.”, and I’ve gone to him and he’s been the absolute best, literally, every single time.

我尽量不滥用这一点，但多年来，有几次我会想，“我真的需要这方面的建议。”，我去找过他，他每次都是绝对最好的。

I followed it a few times.

我跟着看了几次。

A few times I didn’t follow his advice, and I really regret not following his advice.

有几次我没有听从他的建议，我真的很后悔没有听从他的建议。

But he was the absolute best guy to be like, ” All right, let’s talk about this.”.

但他绝对是最适合“好吧，我们来谈谈这个”的人。

And the last thing I’ll say is that it’s freaking crazy, because he’s got more shit going on than anybody else in the world and is still very interested to take time out to discuss some thing that I’m asking him about, which is a really, really great quality.

我要说的最后一件事是，这太疯狂了，因为他比世界上任何人都发生了更多的事情，而且仍然非常有兴趣花时间讨论我问他的一些事情，这是一个非常非常好的品质。

Yeah, always takes a phone call.

是的，总是接电话。

2:49:45 Yeah, you’re right about the advice.

是的，你的建议是对的。

His advice is spot on.

他的建议很正确。

For me personally, what’s needed is he’s been through so many fires that he’s really good at making you feel like don’t fucking worry about it.

就我个人而言，需要的是他经历了如此多的火灾，以至于他真的很擅长让你觉得他妈的不用担心。

Yeah.

是的。

That he’s really good at making you feel like, “Don’t fucking worry about it.

他真的很擅长让你觉得，“别他妈的担心。

2:50:00 Just move on.” It’s the don’t-read-the-comments thing, but generally.

继续前进吧。”这是不读评论的事情，但一般来说。

Yeah, that’s right.

是的，没错。

2:50:09 Yeah.

是的。

Just like, fuck it.

就像，操他妈的。

2:50:10 And he has that whole vibe, which kind of looks effortless, but I think when you look at it seriously, especially in contrast with journalists, there’s a fearlessness there.

他有一种整体的氛围，看起来毫不费力，但我认为当你认真地看待它时，特别是与记者相比，那里有一种无所畏惧。

100%.

100%。

2:50:25 Yeah.

是的。

That not giving a fuck, I mean, he says it’s because of fuck-you money or any of that.

我的意思是，他根本不在乎，他说这是因为操你妈的钱或者其他什么。

2:50:27 I don’t think so.

我不这么认为。

I think it’s-

我认为是——

It’s more than that.

不仅如此。

It’s more than that.

不仅如此。

I mean, I’m sure that’s a component of it, but there’s people who have that who still don’t have his fearlessness.

我的意思是，我确信这是其中的一个组成部分，但有些人拥有这一点，但仍然没有他的无所畏惧。

Most people who have money, a lot of money, are actually become more scared.

大多数有钱、有很多钱的人实际上变得更加害怕。

2:50:40 They like the comfort of just normal life, because when you’re taking risks, you’re going to pay for it even if you have money.

他们喜欢正常生活的舒适，因为当你冒险时，即使你有钱，你也会为此付出代价。

Not just financially, just like, it’s going to hurt, it’s going to disturb your life, it’s going to create turbulence.

不仅仅是在经济上，就像，它会伤害你，它会扰乱你的生活，它会造成动荡。

2:50:59 Yeah.

是的。

The guy is fearless and follows just his genuine curiosity.

这家伙无所畏惧，只追随他真正的好奇心。

It’s like an inspiration to me, friendships aside, just inspiration of how great of a conversationalist he is, and not …

这对我来说就像是一种灵感，抛开友谊不谈，只是让我知道他是一个多么伟大的健谈者，而不是……

He would generally didn’t give a fuck, if he talks to any of the presidential candidates or not, he would just talk to friends just because he wants to.

他通常不会关心是否与任何一位总统候选人交谈，他只是因为他愿意而与朋友交谈。

And there’s no clickbaitiness to it.

而且它没有点击诱饵。

There’s no giving a shit about views or likes or any of that.

根本不关心观点、喜欢之类的东西。

Yeah.

是的。

2:51:29 I mean, during the COVID stuff, man, I mean he was interviewing Dr. McCullough.

我的意思是，在新冠疫情期间，我的意思是他正在采访麦卡洛博士。

And who’s the other one?

另一位是谁？

Malone, Dr. Malone.

马龙，马龙博士。

And had Bobby Kennedy, all these people.

还有鲍比·肯尼迪，所有这些人。

Like at this time when it was so …

就像此时此刻，是这样的……

And he’s had it with me before too, talking about Ukraine and Israel at the times when it’s really white-hot, you know what I mean?

他以前也跟我说过，在局势真正白热化的时候谈论乌克兰和以色列，你知道我的意思吗？

And there’s this huge penalty on not going along with the regimes’ talking points.

如果不遵守政权的谈话要点，就会受到巨大的惩罚。

2:51:55 It’s really hard to overstate it.

真的很难夸大它。

I mean, there used to be nothing like this.

我的意思是，以前没有这样的事情。

It used to be that if CNN and Fox News agreed, well, then that was it.

过去，如果 CNN 和福克斯新闻达成一致，那么就这样了。

That was the line now.

现在就是这条线了。

And now we got the biggest show in the country will actually allow the other perspective on and allow people to challenge the regime.

现在我们在这个国家举办了最大的演出，实际上将允许其他观点并允许人们挑战政权。

I think it’s been historic.

我认为这是历史性的。

I think also there are shows, there are people, that just are constantly conspiracy theorists, which is fine also, but I sometimes feel that those lack genuineness, because they put themselves in a bin.

我认为也有一些节目，有些人，只是不断的阴谋论者，这也很好，但我有时觉得那些缺乏真诚，因为他们把自己放在一个垃圾箱里。

2:52:15 Or everything, you question everything to a point where, I don’t know, I feel like you’re not getting closer to the truth when you question everything.

或者一切，你质疑一切，以至于我不知道，当你质疑一切时，我觉得你并没有接近真相。

There is something that some people in the conspiracy world do, which is they speak about something with certainty when they’re really not certain about I., and it’s fine to ask questions and it’s fine to speculate about things, but you also have to …

阴谋世界里的一些人会做一些事情，那就是当他们真的不确定我时，他们会很确定地谈论一些事情，问问题和推测事情都很好，但你也必须……

2:52:37 It is true in general in life, you got to be really careful about presuming your conclusion and then working backward from there.

在生活中普遍如此，你必须非常小心地推断你的结论，然后从那里开始逆推。

And then sometimes when you have one …

然后有时当你有一个......

It’s a matter of being sloppy verse not being sloppy.

这是马虎和不马虎的问题。

2:53:09 I remember for a long time, back in the day in 9/11 truth movement, one of the huge smoking guns that they would point to was that in the ’90s there was this one document, I’m blanking on the title of it, but it was from PNAC, the Project for a New American Century, and this was the think tank or one of the think tanks of the neoconservatives.

我记得很长一段时间，在 9/11 真相运动中，他们指出的一个确凿证据是，在 90 年代有一份文件，我对它的标题一无所知，但它来自 PNAC，新美国世纪计划，这是新保守派的智囊团或智囊团之一。

All the big neoconservatives were involved in PNAC, from Dick Cheney, to Rumsfeld, to Richard Perle, David Wurmser, all the big neocons.

所有的新保守派大佬都参与了 PNAC，从迪克·切尼、拉姆斯菲尔德、理查德·珀尔、大卫·沃姆瑟，所有的新保守派大佬。

2:53:37 And there was this one document where they basically …

有一份文件，他们基本上……

they were like, their Project for the New American Century was how we’re going to have hegemony for another 100 years.

他们说，他们的新美国世纪计划就是我们将如何再拥有 100 年的霸权。

Now that we won the 20th century.

现在我们赢得了20世纪。

How are we going to win the 21st century?

我们怎样才能赢得21世纪的胜利？

And they were like, “Okay, well here’s what we want to do.

他们说：“好吧，这就是我们想做的。

We want to start multiple wars in the Middle East and we want to go …” Like all the plans that they had.

我们想在中东发动多场战争，我们想要……”就像他们所有的计划一样。

NATO expansion in Europe was a big part of it too.

北约在欧洲的扩张也是其中的一个重要部分。

2:53:58 And then there was one line where they said, “It’s going to be tough to work up popular support for these multiple wars we want to fight in the Middle East, short of another Pearl Harbor style event.” And the 9/11 truthers would point to this and go, “See, clearly they did it.

然后有一句话他们说：“如果没有另一场珍珠港式的事件，我们想要在中东进行的这些多场战争将很难获得民众的支持。” 9/11 真相支持者会指出这一点并说道：“看，显然他们做到了。

They did 9/11.

他们做了9/11。

They even say in their own words here that they want another Pearl Harbor event so they can do this.” And it’s like, well, look, that doesn’t actually prove anything.

他们甚至在这里用自己的话说，他们希望再发生一次珍珠港事件，这样他们就可以做到这一点。”就像，好吧，看，这实际上并不能证明任何事情。

I mean, it might just be the case that they were like, “Oh, we wouldn’t get this without a Pearl …” And then when 9/11 happened, they went, “Hey, we got our Pearl Harbor style event.”

我的意思是，他们可能会说，“哦，如果没有珍珠，我们就不会得到这个……”然后当 9/11 发生时，他们说，“嘿，我们得到了珍珠港风格的事件。”

2:54:36 And even if you like that story of 9/11 was an inside job, because it’s kind of sexy and exciting and like, “Oh my God, what a crazy world we’re living in if that’s true.” And I’m not even saying it’s not true.

即使你喜欢 9/11 的故事，它也是一个内部工作，因为它有点性感和令人兴奋，就像，“天哪，如果这是真的，我们生活在一个多么疯狂的世界。”我什至没有说这不是真的。

I’m just saying, if you’re not sloppy and you’re scrupulous, you go, “That’s not really evidence.” It sounds like evidence, it’s evidence-sy, but it’s not actually a piece of evidence because that doesn’t in any way demonstrate that they actually were in on the thing.

我只是说，如果你不马虎，你很谨慎，你就会说，“这不是真正的证据。”这听起来像是证据，是证据，但实际上并不是证据，因为这并不能以任何方式证明他们确实参与了这件事。

2:55:01 And there’s just a lot of things like that, there’s a lot of things …

类似的事情还有很多，还有很多……

I even see, because it’s a very popular conspiracy theory online now that Israel did 9/11, and I’m like, “I’m open.

我什至看到了，因为现在以色列制造了 9/11，这是网上非常流行的阴谋论，我想，“我持开放态度。

What do you got?

你有什么？

What’s the evidence?” And they’ll be like, “Well, did you see that Larry Silverstein took out a huge insurance policy on the World Trade Center?

有什么证据？”他们会说，“好吧，你看到拉里·西尔弗斯坦为世贸中心购买了巨额保险吗？

How did he know?” And you’re like, “How did he know that the number one terrorist target in the world might need a big insurance policy on it?” You realize that the same guys attempted to knock those towers down in 1993.

他怎么知道的？你会想，“他怎么知道世界上第一大恐怖分子目标可能需要一份大额保险？”您知道，同一个人在 1993 年曾试图推倒这些塔楼。

2:55:31 And so there’s just little things like that where if you’re being sloppy and you already really want this conclusion, I see where you could see these things as evidence, but if you’re just being a little …

所以，在一些小事情上，如果你很草率，而且你已经真的想要这个结论，我知道你可以在哪里将这些事情视为证据，但如果你只是有点……

if you’re critically thinking about them, it’s actually …

如果你批判性地思考它们，它实际上是……

it’s not as strong a case as you think it is.

这件事并不像你想象的那么有力。

Again, I’ll speculate every now and again on things, but I like to take on something where I feel like I can prove this case.

再说一次，我会时不时地推测一些事情，但我喜欢承担一些我觉得我可以证明这一点的事情。

I really have enough evidence that I think I can prove this.

我确实有足够的证据，我想我可以证明这一点。

I think I can prove that the neocons didn’t invade Iraq because they were worried about weapons of mass destruction and they actually had this agenda for at least a decade before the war broke out.

我想我可以证明新保守派入侵伊拉克并不是因为他们担心大规模杀伤性武器，而且他们实际上在战争爆发前至少十年就已经制定了这一议程。

There’s strong tangible evidence for that.

有强有力的切实证据证明这一点。

2:56:10 It’s just sometimes the constant conspiracy guys, not always, but sometimes they just get sloppy when it comes to actually analyzing how strong the case is.

只是有时是持续不断的阴谋分子，并非总是如此，但有时他们在实际分析案件的强度时会变得马虎。

I mean, there’s several psychological effects.

我的意思是，这有几个心理影响。

2:56:21 I think there’s a certain drug to the dogmatic certainty that you were mentioning.

我认为你提到的教条主义确定性有某种药物。

It really annoys me, there’s something about human psychology, because when I say stuff, I usually show doubt and show the humiliated that I might not have the right answer and I sometimes look at multiple perspectives.

这真的让我很恼火，这与人类心理学有关，因为当我说话时，我通常会表现出怀疑并表现出羞辱，因为我可能没有正确的答案，有时我会从多个角度看待。

2:56:49 And that’s seen as weakness and lack of intelligence often.

这常常被视为弱点和缺乏智慧。

It just sounds like it.

听起来就是这样。

When I even listen back to people that do that kind of thing, that certainty sounds like intelligence to people.

当我什至听那些做过这种事的人说的话时，这种确定性对人们来说听起来就像是智慧。

If you say something with a lot of certainty, it sounds like, “This is a smart motherfucker.” And I hate that about myself, about human psyche, that that seems to be the case, because then the dumb dogmatists are going to be the ones that are driving agenda.

如果你非常肯定地说出一些话，听起来就像是，“这真是个聪明的混蛋。”我讨厌我自己，讨厌人类的心理，情况似乎就是这样，因为那样的话，愚蠢的教条主义者将成为推动议程的人。

It is true.

是真的。

2:57:22 I’ve noticed that for a long time though.

我已经注意到这一点很长时间了。

It’s almost like in a weird way, it’s like a prerequisite for leadership in a way.

这几乎就像以一种奇怪的方式，在某种程度上就像领导力的先决条件。

You kind of have to be certain about things.

你必须对事情有一定的把握。

But then there’s a real problem with that, which is that a lot of times you’re just bullshitting or you’re not correct to be this certain about this.

但这有一个真正的问题，那就是很多时候你只是在胡说八道，或者你对此的肯定是不正确的。

It’s at least debatable.

这至少是有争议的。

2:57:43 And then the thing, I feel like at least for me is, which I try to do, I’m sure I fail at this a ton, but you try to at least go like …

然后，我觉得至少对我来说是，我尝试去做，我确信我在这方面失败了很多，但你至少尝试去做……

You got to work on training your brain and you have to be conscious about it.

你必须努力训练你的大脑，并且你必须意识到这一点。

And so you have to go like, “Hey, if there’s something here that is confirming my bias,” you start getting that little sense of pleasure of like, “Oh, great, here’s another point that proves the thing I want to be true,” then you have to be 10 times as skeptical about this.

所以你必须这样说，“嘿，如果这里有什么东西证实了我的偏见，”你开始得到一点点快乐，比如，“哦，太棒了，这是另一点证明了我想要的事情是真实的，”那么你必须对此持十倍的怀疑。

You have to really examine this one and be like, “Okay, am I sure that this one …”

你必须真正检查一下这个，然后说：“好吧，我确定这个……”

2:58:26 Because sometimes you’ll hear people even throw out things where it’s like, ” Oh, I know you liked that it was helping your case,” but come on, think about this.

因为有时你会听到人们甚至扔掉一些东西，比如“哦，我知道你喜欢它对你的案子有帮助”，但是来吧，想想这一点。

This doesn’t even make sense.

这甚至没有意义。

It’s like, okay, I want to make this argument and then everything that would support that just gets sucked in a force of gravity or something, and you’re like, “Yeah, but have half of these are bad data points.”

就像，好吧，我想提出这个论点，然后所有支持这一论点的东西都会被重力或其他什么东西吸进去，你会说，“是的，但其中有一半是坏数据点。”

I mean, for me, there’s something definitely about my brain that is attracted to conspiracy theories.

我的意思是，对我来说，我的大脑中肯定有一些东西被阴谋论所吸引。

Yeah, me too.

是的，我也是。

So I’m very well aware that that gravitational pull is there.

所以我非常清楚地心引力的存在。

Well, if nothing else, it’s a crazy story.

好吧，如果不出意外的话，这就是一个疯狂的故事。

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

是啊，是啊，是啊。

It’s like a movie, so it’s like, “Oh, that’s cool.”

这就像一部电影，所以就像，“哦，那很酷。”

[inaudible 02:59:02] Epstein aspect of it is crazy.

[听不清 02:59:02] 爱泼斯坦的方面很疯狂。

2:59:02 Every fucking aspect –

他妈的每一个方面——

Yeah, you don’t need to work on Epstein [inaudible 02:59:05] story.

是的，你不需要研究爱泼斯坦 [听不清 02:59:05] 的故事。

I don’t understand.

我不明白。

2:59:05 That’s one of the big mysteries of our modern era is like, how the did fuck this guy get an island, this pedophile, and got smart, smart, I think really smart people to hang out with him, and what the fuck?

这是我们现代时代最大的谜团之一，这个家伙他妈的怎么得到一个岛，这个恋童癖，并且变得聪明，聪明，我认为非常聪明的人和他一起出去玩，他妈的是什么？

I mean, obviously Ghislaine, however you say her name-

我的意思是，显然是吉斯莱恩，不管你怎么说她的名字——

Ghislaine.

吉斯莱恩。

…

……

2:59:34 Ghislaine Maxwell, okay, she went to jail.

吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦，好吧，她进了监狱。

It’s like, has anybody else?

好像还有其他人吗？

Has anybody anywhere been forced to resign?

有没有人被迫辞职？

I mean, just even, say, I don’t know, at the FBI or something, just for not catching the thing sooner.

我的意思是，甚至，说，我不知道，在联邦调查局或其他什么地方，只是因为没有尽快发现这件事。

Even if you weren’t in on it, it was like, no …

即使你没有参与其中，就像，不......

2:59:52 There’s a real problem with the American system and it’s that, and I think this just went on for too long before the American people just wouldn’t put up with it anymore.

美国的制度存在一个真正的问题，就是这样，我认为这种情况持续了太久，直到美国人民再也无法忍受为止。

And this is why trust in every institution and the corporate media and Congress and all of it has evaporated, is that it’s like, are you just saying of all the people who sold the war in Iraq, no one so much as got kicked out of polite society?

这就是为什么对每个机构、企业媒体和国会的信任都消失了，就像，你只是说所有在伊拉克出售战争的人，没有人被踢出上流社会吗？

I’m not even saying, oh, they went to jail for war crimes for life, but was just like, “Yeah, we’re not looking to you for advice on the next war.

我什至不是说，哦，他们因战争罪而被终身监禁，而是说，“是的，我们不会向你寻求关于下一场战争的建议。

Thanks.

谢谢。

Go home.” None of that.

回家吧。”都不是。

3:00:29 And it’s like all these crazy things, nobody goes down for it.

就像所有这些疯狂的事情一样，没有人会为此而倒下。

I mean, they lied us into war after a war.

我的意思是，他们在一场战争之后欺骗我们进入战争。

They’ve bankrupted the country, damn near destroyed the dollar.

他们让国家破产，几乎摧毁了美元。

They locked down the country on the basis of pseudoscience, then lied through their teeth about what this vaccine would do as they were forcing it on people, and no one loses their job.

他们以伪科学为基础封锁了国家，然后对这种疫苗的作用大肆撒谎，强加给人们，结果没有人失去工作。

No one even gets in trouble over any of this.

甚至没有人会因此而陷入麻烦。

And look, in any area of life, whether a business or a relationship or whatever, you cannot screw up that catastrophically and face no repercussions for it and think that your business or relationship isn’t going to fail as a result of that.

看看，在生活的任何领域，无论是生意、人际关系还是其他什么，你都不能灾难性地搞砸而不面临任何后果，并认为你的生意或人际关系不会因此而失败。

I think ultimately there’s been a lot of wake-up calls and I think we’re going to build a better society from it, better institution …

我认为最终敲响了很多警钟，我认为我们将从中建立一个更好的社会、更好的机构……

3:01:15 I believe-

我相信——

I hope you’re right.

我希望你是对的。

…

……

3:01:23 with more transparency, more authenticity.

更加透明、更加真实。

I think also the Democratic Party has learned a lesson of you have to have candidates that do …

我认为民主党也吸取了教训，必须让候选人做到……

I don’t give a shit about podcasts, but do podcasts-like things, meaning reveal themselves as human beings.

我不在乎播客，但会做类似播客的事情，这意味着展现自己作为人类的一面。

I think it’s one of the best things that happened in this last election.

我认为这是上次选举中发生的最好的事情之一。

3:01:39 I did think they were great, but I’m not saying that any of the Trump podcasts were perfect or maybe there’d be a better way that they could be done.

我确实认为它们很棒，但我并不是说特朗普的任何播客都是完美的，或者也许有更好的方法可以完成它们。

But I will say that I used to say this for a while, as of the last few years, but I’d be like, so I’m me, and for me to do what I do, it’s kind of expected that I’ll probably …

但我会说，在过去的几年里，我曾经这么说过一段时间，但我会想，所以我就是我，对我来说，做我所做的事情，我可能会……

I don’t know, I get at least maybe 15, 10 to 15 times a year, I’ll come do a show like this.

我不知道，我一年至少可能有15、10到15次，我会来做这样的节目。

A long-form show on a big platform where my ideas will be poked and prodded and tested and there’ll be pushback questions and they’ll be …

在一个大平台上进行的长篇表演，我的想法将被激发、刺激和测试，并且会有一些反驳的问题，它们会……

Sometimes they’re more adversarial, sometimes they’re more friendly.

有时他们更加敌对，有时他们更加友好。

3:02:37 And then yet our standard for who is the commander in chief was like, you show up to these debates that are 90 minutes long with these really …

然而我们对于谁是总司令的标准是，你出现在这些长达 90 分钟的辩论中，这些真的......

they are really stupid questions and you give a 90-second answer to it or …

这些都是非常愚蠢的问题，而你给出了 90 秒的答案，或者……

And at least for the first time now it does seem like, oh, the standard is kind of you’re going to have to do a long-form show where you really have to have …

至少现在第一次看起来，哦，标准是你必须做一个长篇节目，你真的必须……

And that I think is long term a real positive development.

我认为从长远来看这是一个真正积极的发展。

You just know going forward, the Democrats, which I think is what you were saying, you can’t run a Kamala Harris if she can’t do a long-form interview.

你只知道前进，民主党，我想这就是你所说的，如果卡玛拉·哈里斯不能进行长篇采访，你就不能竞选她。

You got to run somebody who’s able to sit down and express themselves and have real genuine thoughts, or at least try to convince people they have real genuine thoughts at least.

你必须领导一个能够坐下来表达自己并拥有真正想法的人，或者至少尝试让人们相信他们至少有真正的想法。

3:03:22 And that’s very different in a way.

这在某种程度上是非常不同的。

I look back at the most talented politicians of my lifetime, which I’d have to say the two were Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, just the most talented, traditional politicians.

我回顾我一生中最有才华的政治家，我不得不说这两个人是比尔·克林顿和巴拉克·奥巴马，他们只是最有才华的传统政治家。

Trump’s the anti-politician, but they were the traditional and just unbelievably …

特朗普是反政治家，但他们是传统的，而且令人难以置信……

but they never had to do that.

但他们从来不必这样做。

It was just a different time.

只是时间不同而已。

Bill Clinton had to walk up and be like, “Oh, it’s a beautiful baby you have here.” Then go back and then play the sax, and then have a couple good answers to a small crowd, “I’m from a little town called Hope.”

比尔·克林顿必须走上前说：“哦，你生的孩子真漂亮。”然后回去吹萨克斯，然后对一小群人给出几个很好的答案，“我来自一个叫希望的小镇。”

3:03:54 That’s not the game anymore.

那不再是游戏了。

Now the game is like, can you sit down and actually have some ideas in a long form?

现在的游戏就像，你能坐下来，实际上有一些长篇的想法吗？

And I think that’s so much better, because it’s so much more revealing of …

我认为这好多了，因为它更能揭示……

Kind of like what we were saying before, you reveal a little bit, it’s not 50 hours, but in those three hours you reveal a little bit of your soul.

有点像我们之前说的，你透露一点点，不是50小时，而是在这三个小时里你透露一点你的灵魂。

Yeah.

是的。

3:04:11 And I think that process makes you actually a better person.

我认为这个过程实际上会让你成为一个更好的人。

I ultimately think that Barack Obama is a fascinating human being.

我最终认为巴拉克·奥巴马是一个迷人的人。

And there was a choice made early on to do less interviews, be more behind the wall, I think.

我认为，我们很早就做出了减少采访、更多地躲在墙后的选择。

And that’s a disservice, because I think it’s a skill to be an authentic person, that you build, to be able to allow yourself to be yourself.

这是一种伤害，因为我认为成为一个真实的人是一种技能，你可以培养这种技能，让自己能够做你自己。

It’s very possible that Kamala Harris is a fascinating person, but she just-

卡玛拉·哈里斯很可能是一个迷人的人，但她只是——

Yeah, we’ve just never gotten to meet her.

是的，我们只是从未见过她。

And I don’t know if she has gotten to meet or by …

我不知道她是否已经见面或……

3:04:42 It’s a practiced thing, to reveal yourself is a tricky thing.

这是一件需要练习的事情，而暴露自己却是一件很棘手的事情。

I think it’s just good for the candidate.

我认为这对候选人来说是好事。

Well, I think what she did, I’m a critic, I don’t think she’s a good candidate, but what she did is pretty fricking incredible, meaning to raise that much money in that short amount of time.

嗯，我认为她所做的，我是一个批评者，我不认为她是一个好的候选人，但她所做的真是令人难以置信，意味着在这么短的时间内筹集了这么多钱。

I think it was a terrible thing for the Democratic Party to do, I think she’s a terrible candidate, but still, with the tools you got, use TikTok, use whatever.

我认为这对民主党来说是一件可怕的事情，我认为她是一个糟糕的候选人，但仍然可以利用你拥有的工具，使用 TikTok，使用任何东西。

I’ll say the fact that she came as close as she did to being president is pretty goddamn insane if you ask me.

如果你问我的话，我会说，她如此接近成为总统的事实真是太疯狂了。

3:05:18 But yeah, the Democrats are a mess.

但是，是的，民主党一团糟。

They’re a mess like I’ve never seen a political party before, but that in itself is I think a very good thing.

他们一团糟，就像我以前从未见过的政党一样，但这本身就是一件非常好的事情。

And what comes from here is there’s a lot of possibilities now.

由此可见，现在有很多可能性。

I don’t know who the person is.

我不知道这个人是谁。

I don’t see anyone out there that I could think of that would fill this role, but there’s never been a more ripe time for someone to Donald Trump the Democratic Party now.

我认为没有人可以填补这个职位，但现在是民主党提名唐纳德·特朗普的最佳时机。

3:05:55 What Donald Trump did, people tend to forget this, because now it’s also because the accusation from the Democrats is that, “The Republican Parties are all a bunch of Trump cultists,” or something like that.

唐纳德·特朗普的所作所为，人们往往会忘记这一点，因为现在也是因为民主党的指责是，“共和党都是一群特朗普崇拜者”之类的。

But I’m old enough to remember 2016, and what actually happened was that Donald Trump came in and just really resonated with the voters and the establishment of the Republican Party hated it.

但我已经足够大了，还记得 2016 年，实际发生的事情是唐纳德·特朗普上台后引起了选民的共鸣，而共和党的建制派对此深恶痛绝。

They were openly talking about changing the rules at the Republican National Convention to deny him the nomination in 2016.

他们在共和党全国代表大会上公开讨论修改规则，以拒绝他获得 2016 年的提名。

What they were saying is that they were going to raise the number of delegates required so high that nobody could hit it and then say, “Hey, since nobody hit it, we select Mitt Romney again and we’re going to run Mitt Romney again.” They were openly, openly conspiring to steal the thing from him, and eventually he just had so much support on the ground that they couldn’t do it.

他们的意思是，他们将把所需的代表人数提高到没有人能够达到的程度，然后说，“嘿，既然没有人达到，我们再次选择米特·罗姆尼，我们将再次竞选米特·罗姆尼。”他们公然、公然密谋从他那里偷东西，最终他得到了太多的支持，他们无法这么做。

3:06:52 Right now, if someone could totally do that to the Democrats, but the thing is, it would have to be somebody outside of the three-letter agency control, because that’s what everyone’s rejecting right now.

现在，如果有人完全可以对民主党这样做，但问题是，那必须是三个字母机构控制之外的人，因为这就是现在每个人都拒绝的。

But if you were to actually sit there and go …

但如果你真的坐在那里然后走……

And even policies I don’t necessarily agree with, but there are a lot of policies that if it was actually a pro-labor, working class party, you could …

即使是我不一定同意的政策，但有很多政策，如果它实际上是一个亲劳工、工人阶级的政党，你可以……

Bernie Sanders showed you a little bit of what’s possible, and this was from an 80-year-old socialist who didn’t really have the balls to go through with it at the end of the day.

伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）向你展示了一些可能性，这是一位 80 岁的社会主义者说的，他最终没有勇气去经历这一切。

If somebody younger and a little bit more with the current zeitgeist we’re able to do that, that could happen.

如果有人更年轻、更了解当前的时代精神，我们能够做到这一点，那就可能会发生。

I mean, I would generally think that AOC can develop into that candidate.

我的意思是，我通常认为 AOC 可以发展成为那个候选人。

3:07:28 She might not be there yet, but I think she can develop into that.

她可能还没有达到那个水平，但我认为她可以发展到那个程度。

And it could be out there, it could be-

它可能就在那里，它可能是——

I don’t know.

我不知道。

3:07:37 I don’t see AOC being the one to do it, but I could be wrong about that.

我不认为 AOC 是这样做的人，但我的看法可能是错的。

She’s got some qualities, unlike almost all the other ones you could think of.

她有一些品质，与你能想到的几乎所有其他品质不同。

I don’t see anyone right now who I think could be that person, but I never would’ve …

我现在没有看到任何我认为可能是那个人的人，但我永远不会……

I mean, if you had asked me in 2014 who’s going to come take over the Republican Party, I never would’ve guessed Donald Trump was going to come do what he did.

我的意思是，如果你在 2014 年问我谁会接管共和党，我绝对不会猜到唐纳德·特朗普会做他所做的事情。

So it might be the person we’re seeing who we’re not even thinking of, or it might just be some unknown.

所以，我们见到的人可能是我们根本没有想到的人，也可能只是某个未知的人。

3:08:08 Same with Obama was an unknown.

与奥巴马一样，也是一个未知数。

I mean, obviously he had very powerful people behind his presidential run.

我的意思是，显然他的总统竞选背后有非常有权势的人支持。

It’s not like he was a true just grassroots guy, but he wasn’t anyone we would’ve been necessarily thinking about.

他并不是一个真正的草根人物，但他不是我们一定会想到的人。

I mean, he gave that big speech at the 2004 DNC, but that was it.

我的意思是，他在 2004 年民主党全国委员会上发表了那篇重要演讲，但仅此而已。

That was the thing he was known for, is he gave one great speech at the …

这就是他出名的原因，他在……上发表了一场精彩的演讲。

Besides that he was a state senator and then a junior senator.

除此之外，他还是一名州参议员，然后是一名初级参议员。

No one was thinking he was going to be the next president.

没有人认为他会成为下一任总统。

It could be like a Jon Stewart type character.

它可能像乔恩·斯图尔特类型的角色。

3:08:33 Of course, I don’t think he would ever …

当然，我认为他永远不会……

I honestly don’t think a comedian will ever run, but I never thought Trump would ever run, so.

老实说，我不认为喜剧演员会参选，但我从没想过特朗普会参选，所以。

There is something about Jon Stewart that is …

乔恩·斯图尔特有一些东西是……

3:08:40 And obviously I disagree with him on a lot of stuff too, but he is an authentic person.

显然我在很多事情上也不同意他的观点，但他是一个真实的人。

And there’s something about that that gives you a huge advantage, particularly in our current political climate.

这会给你带来巨大的优势，特别是在我们当前的政治气候下。

People are so sick of the phoniness.

人们已经厌倦了虚伪。

And they’re right to be, because you could only …

他们这样做是对的，因为你只能……

You can lie to some of the people some of the time.

有时你可以对某些人撒谎。

You can only lie so much before eventually nobody wants to hear you in that phony voice telling the same phony lies anymore.

你只能撒这么多谎，最终没人愿意再听你用那个虚假的声音说同样的虚假谎言。

3:09:16 And at least Jon Stewart is, I will say, I think Jon Stewart is telling the truth the way he sees it.

我会说，至少乔恩·斯图尔特是，我认为乔恩·斯图尔特按照他的看法说的是实话。

I don’t think he’s necessarily right about a lot of things.

我认为他在很多事情上不一定是正确的。

He is right about a lot of things, but I think he’s wrong about a lot of other things.

他在很多事情上都是对的，但我认为他在其他很多事情上都是错的。

But I just get the impression that he believes what he is saying and there’s something powerful about that.

但我的印象是，他相信自己所说的话，而且其中有某种强大的力量。

Especially when he’s surrounded by people that disagree with him, he’s still willing to say it.

尤其是当他周围都是与他意见不同的人时，他仍然愿意说出来。

Yeah, yeah.

是啊是啊。

That takes a certain kind of courage, yeah, and be funny doing it, but he’s not going to run.

是的，这需要一定的勇气，而且做得很有趣，但他不会逃跑。

No, I don’t think so.

不，我不这么认为。

This is annoying.

这很烦人。

3:09:47 You have to be fucking crazy to run.

你必须发疯才能跑。

That is one of the real problems.

这是真正的问题之一。

3:09:53 And then people attack Donald Trump for being a narcissist-

然后人们攻击唐纳德·特朗普是个自恋者——

You have to be, I think.

我想你一定是这样。

…

……

3:10:00 and it’s like, yeah, but who the hell else is going to ever do this?

就好像，是的，但是还有谁会这么做呢？

Yeah.

是的。

3:10:03 All right.

好的。

What gives you hope about this whole thing we got going on, America and human civilization?

是什么让你对我们正在发生的这一切——美国和人类文明——抱有希望？

Okay.

好的。

3:10:13 This is not mine, but this is Gene Epstein, who’s a …

这不是我的，但这是吉恩·爱泼斯坦，他是……

is a really brilliant economist and a great guy.

是一位非常出色的经济学家，也是一位伟大的人。

And he told me this once and I just always loved it, and so I call it Epstein’s case, not that …

他曾经告诉过我这件事，我一直很喜欢它，所以我称之为爱泼斯坦的案件，而不是……

Different Epstein, Gene Epstein.

不同的爱泼斯坦，吉恩·爱泼斯坦。

No relation.

没有关系。

I want to be clear on that.

我想澄清这一点。

Okay.

好的。

Let’s call it Gene’s case for radical optimism, and the way he put it was he goes, “So imagine you were sitting around in 1845 and you’re at the height of the slavery and you were like, ‘Hey, in 20 years slavery is going to be abolished across the West.'” And if you told that to someone, they’d be like, “Dude, slavery has existed for all of human history.

让我们称其为吉恩的激进乐观主义案例吧，用他的话来说，“想象一下，你坐在 1845 年，正处于奴隶制的鼎盛时期，你会说，‘嘿，20 年后，奴隶制将在整个西方被废除。’”如果你告诉某人，他们会说，“伙计，奴隶制在人类历史上一直存在。

Look around.

环顾四周。

It’s not going anywhere.

它不会去任何地方。

You’d have to be out of your mind to think we’re 20 years away from abolishing slavery.”

如果你认为我们还有 20 年就要废除奴隶制，那你一定是疯了。”

3:11:17 And yet we were, I mean, it’s just the greatest thing in the history of the world, and unfortunately America had to fight a bloody civil war to get there, but many other countries did and they just walked away from what had been the status quo forever and just stopped doing it.

然而，我的意思是，这是世界历史上最伟大的事情，不幸的是，美国必须打一场血腥的内战才能实现这一目标，但许多其他国家也这样做了，他们只是永远放弃了现状，然后停止了这样做。

And now, look, you can argue there’s slavery by other names and things like that, and to some degree, paying an income tax is some degree of slavery, but there is not chattel slavery in the way that there used to be, and that is an incredible advance for humanity.

现在，你看，你可以说存在着其他名称和类似的奴隶制，在某种程度上，缴纳所得税也是某种程度的奴隶制，但不再像以前那样存在动产奴隶制，这对人类来说是一个令人难以置信的进步。

3:11:53 And then the other example he would give is he was talking about how at the beginning of the Reagan administration in 1981, that the neocons …

然后他举的另一个例子是，他在谈论 1981 年里根政府上任之初，新保守派如何……

because when he was trying to have detente with Russia, the neocons were in the press, being like, “He just guaranteed another 100 years of Soviet dominance.” And if someone had just been to you like, “Hey, listen, calm down, in 10 years there won’t be a Soviet Union.” It’s just been like, “Okay, nice idea, but you’re out of your fucking mind.” And yet that was true too.

因为当他试图缓和与俄罗斯的关系时，新保守派在媒体上说，“他只是保证了苏联再统治100年。”如果有人对你说：“嘿，听着，冷静点，十年内不会有苏联。”就像是，“好吧，好主意，但你他妈的疯了。”但这也是事实。

3:12:23 And you can see some dynamics even in our politics today where …

即使在我们今天的政治中，你也可以看到一些动态……

Three years ago I was really concerned about whether they’d shut the whole thing down, us I mean.

三年前，我真的很担心他们是否会关闭整个项目，我是说我们。

During the COVID times and during times where it was like everyone I knew was just getting strikes on all their channels, and if you just even wanted to talk about how there are people being vaccine injured, you’d lose your YouTube channel, people getting kicked off Twitter left and right.

在新冠疫情期间，在我认识的每个人的所有频道都遭到罢工的时候，如果你只是想谈论如何有人因疫苗受伤，你就会失去你的 YouTube 频道，人们会被从 Twitter 上踢出。

And I just saw it and I was like, “Dude, the grasp is just getting tighter and tighter and tighter.

我刚刚看到它，我就想，“伙计，抓得越来越紧，越来越紧。

The regime is not going to allow these alternative voices in here.

该政权不会允许这些另类声音出现。

And they’re just getting too big and they’re going to shut this whole thing down and I’m going to have to figure out what I’m going to do after that.”

他们变得太大了，他们将关闭整个事情，我将不得不弄清楚在那之后我要做什么。”

3:13:10 And I was totally wrong.

我完全错了。

The trend totally went in the other direction, and things are now at a point where it’s like, I couldn’t even imagine it.

趋势完全朝着另一个方向发展，现在事情已经到了我无法想象的地步。

I never would’ve envisioned Elon Musk was going to get $44 billion together and buy Twitter and then he was …

我从来没有想到埃隆·马斯克会集资 440 亿美元收购 Twitter，然后他……

And so I just think that if you zoom out, I think that the regime has lost their monopoly on propaganda, and this opens up enormous possibilities for what …

所以我只是认为，如果你缩小范围，我认为该政权已经失去了对宣传的垄断，这为……带来了巨大的可能性。

3:13:38 I remember so vividly, 2002.

我记得很清楚，2002年。

9/11 happened in late 2001, we invaded Iraq in 2003, but all of 2002 was a massive propaganda campaign.

9/11 事件发生在 2001 年底，我们在 2003 年入侵了伊拉克，但 2002 年全年都是一场大规模的宣传活动。

Just constantly laying down the blueprints for this war that we knew George W.

只是不断地为我们所知道的乔治·W·布什的这场战争制定蓝图。

Bush was about to launch.

布什即将发射。

And it was, “They have weapons of mass destruction.

是的，“他们拥有大规模杀伤性武器。

They were in on 9/11.

他们是在9/11。

They’re friends with Al-Qaeda.

他们是基地组织的朋友。

They’re going to hand this weapon that they don’t have off to the terrorists they’re not friends with, and then they’re going to nuke Kansas.”

他们会将这种他们没有的武器交给与他们不是朋友的恐怖分子，然后他们将用核武器袭击堪萨斯州。”

3:14:11 By the way, this is also, sorry for rambling a little bit here, but this is also one of the reasons why when the Jew haters will say things like …

顺便说一句，这也是抱歉，在这里有点漫无目的，但这也是为什么当犹太人仇恨者会说这样的话的原因之一......

They’ll be like, “Oh, look, all of the Jews support Israel,” or, “70% of the Jews vote this way,” or, “70% of the Jews support the …” It’s like, listen, I don’t like blaming …

他们会说，“哦，看，所有的犹太人都支持以色列”，或者，“70％的犹太人以这种方式投票”，或者，“70％的犹太人支持……”这就像是，听着，我不喜欢责备……

Or even when the Palestine haters will say, “70% of Gazans support Hamas,” or whatever.

或者甚至当巴勒斯坦仇恨者会说“70％的加沙人支持哈马斯”之类的时候。

It’s like, okay, look, I remember a time in this country, I know I’m going back 20 years, but every right-winger in this country was completely convinced that we have to go invade Iraq because he has weapons of mass destruction, and you’re some type of leftist homo if you don’t agree with that.

就像，好吧，听着，我记得在这个国家的一段时间，我知道我要回到20年前，但是这个国家的每个右翼分子都完全相信我们必须入侵伊拉克，因为他拥有大规模杀伤性武器，如果你不同意这一点，你就是某种左翼同性恋。

That was the entire culture in this country.

这就是这个国家的全部文化。

And it was the one thing that the New York Times and Bill O’Reilly and CNN and the Washington Post all agreed on, they were all on board selling this war.

这是《纽约时报》、比尔·奥莱利、美国有线电视新闻网和《华盛顿邮报》都同意的一件事，他们都在推销这场战争。

3:14:58 You could not do that today.

今天你不能这样做。

They could not get away with that today, because if they did, how do you control this entire problem?

今天他们无法逃脱惩罚，因为如果他们这样做了，你如何控制整个问题呢？

You tell me, how do you control Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson?

你告诉我，你如何控制乔·罗根和塔克·卡尔森？

How do you get these guys to go …

怎么让这些家伙走……

They’re not going to go along with it.

他们不会同意的。

And in fact, they’re almost definitely going to have people on their show who are just tearing it apart.

事实上，他们几乎肯定会有人在他们的节目中将其撕碎。

And so I just look at that and I go like, “Yo, I mean, we’re at a place now where we have this world of possibilities that would’ve seemed impossible just so recently.” And so just thinking, all of that rambling stew, whatever all that was, that leaves me feeling very, very hopeful for the future.

所以我只是看着这一点，然后说，“哟，我的意思是，我们现在所处的位置是一个充满可能性的世界，而就在最近，这似乎是不可能的。”所以只要想一想，所有这些杂乱无章的炖菜，无论是什么，都让我对未来感到非常非常充满希望。

Yeah, there’s a lot of social and political progress in that rambling stew over the decades and the centuries.

是的，几十年来、几个世纪里，在漫无目的的炖菜中取得了很多社会和政治进步。

3:15:38 For me, probably some of the technological progress is really exciting.

对我来说，可能有些技术进步确实令人兴奋。

Me personally, it just fills me with hope whenever I see the rockets go up …

就我个人而言，每当我看到火箭升起时，我都会充满希望……

To clarify-

澄清一下——

Not the ones going into Gaza, the ones going into outer space, I assume.

我想，不是那些进入加沙的，而是那些进入外太空的。

You had to clarify the Epstein thing, the Epstein rule, to clarify exactly which rockets.

你必须澄清爱泼斯坦的事情，爱泼斯坦规则，才能澄清到底是哪些火箭。

3:16:01 SpaceX and Blue Origin rockets.

SpaceX 和蓝色起源火箭。

So taking humans out to space and for us to be among the stars, it makes me feel like we’re going to make it.

因此，将人类带到太空，让我们跻身于群星之中，这让我觉得我们会成功。

Because the bleaker times throughout human history, you think …

因为人类历史上最黯淡的时期，你认为……

I mean, there’s just a sense …

我的意思是，有一种感觉……

You’re right, and during COVID, there was a sense of, for many reasons, maybe just a simple psychological human reason, it felt like bleak, like, fuck I don’t think we as a civilization are …

你是对的，在新冠疫情期间，有一种感觉，出于多种原因，也许只是一个简单的人类心理原因，感觉很黯淡，就像，他妈的，我不认为我们作为一个文明......

If we can’t handle this pandemic from a policy perspective, from a human perspective, economic perspective, this is like pandemic lite.

如果我们不能从政策角度、人类角度、经济角度来应对这一流行病，那么这就像轻量级流行病一样。

There’s going to be other bigger troubles coming our way.

我们还会遇到其他更大的麻烦。

3:16:53 And then now you have this …

然后现在你有这个......

again, the rockets are going up.

火箭再次崛起。

It’s like, first of all, we’ll colonize space and other planets.

就像，首先，我们将殖民太空和其他行星。

And we are inventive motherfuckers, we’ll figure it out.

我们都是有创造力的混蛋，我们会解决的。

Yeah.

是的。

3:17:07 And then certainly for me, just personally because this has really touched my life, but the innovations in medical technology are just …

当然，对我个人来说，因为这确实触动了我的生活，但医疗技术的创新只是……

And my son had a congenital heart defect at open-heart surgery when he was three days old.

我的儿子在三天大的时候在心脏直视手术中患有先天性心脏缺陷。

And I mean, it’s something that 20 years ago I would’ve lost my child.

我的意思是，如果是在 20 年前，我可能会失去我的孩子。

And he’s fine.

他很好。

Just absolutely fine, because it’s just amazing what these surgeons and cardiologists and neonatologists and all of them, what they do now is like goddamn magic.

绝对没问题，因为这些外科医生、心脏病专家、新生儿专家以及他们所有人现在所做的事情真是令人惊奇，他们现在所做的就像是该死的魔法。

And so there was always something about that that would …

所以总有一些事情会……

It was almost like that inoculated me against ever having a sense of like, “Well, I wish it was a previous time.” Because now, sorry, in a previous time, I lose my kid, so I don’t care.

这几乎就像是让我免于产生这样的感觉：“好吧，我希望这是以前的事。”因为现在，对不起，在以前，我失去了我的孩子，所以我不在乎。

Whatever other challenges there are out here, I’ll take that trade off where this baby survives and gets a shot at having a life.”

无论这里还有什么其他挑战，我都会在这个婴儿生存下来并有机会拥有生命的情况下进行权衡。”

3:18:05 And there is a lot of that stuff is just easy to take for granted.

有很多东西很容易被视为理所当然。

And it’s like, when it touches your life, you don’t take it for granted as much, but it’s just like now it really is …

就像，当它触及你的生活时，你不会认为它是理所当然的，但就像现在它确实是......

There are miracles going on all over the place now that everybody in human history did not have access to.

现在到处都在发生人类历史上每个人都无法获得的奇迹。

All right, brother.

好吧，兄弟。

3:18:22 It’s great to finally meet a friend and have a conversation.

终于见到朋友并交谈真是太好了。

Yeah, I really enjoyed this.

是的，我真的很喜欢这个。

And I can’t wait to talk to you again, brother.

我迫不及待地想再次与你交谈，兄弟。

Absolutely.

绝对的。

3:18:29 Thanks for having me.

谢谢你有我。

Thanks for listening to this conversation with Dave Smith.

感谢您收听与戴夫·史密斯的对话。

3:18:32 To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description.

为了支持这个播客，请在说明中查看我们的赞助商。

And now let me leave you with some words from Ron Paul, “Real patriotism is a willingness to challenge the government when it’s wrong.” Thank you for listening and I hope to see you next time.

现在，让我向你们传达罗恩·保罗的话：“真正的爱国主义是当政府出错时愿意挑战政府。”感谢您的聆听，希望下次再见。