哈维尔·米莱：阿根廷总统——自由、经济与腐败
Javier Milei: President of Argentina – Freedom, Economics, and Corruption
阿根廷总统谈自由意志主义理念、通胀与经济改革路径，以及政治腐败与制度困境。
“疯子和天才的区别是什么？”哈维尔·米莱（Javier Milei）在访谈临近结束时自己给出了答案：“是成功。”
这句听起来像玩笑的话，恰好概括了这位阿根廷总统过去一年的处境。一年前他接手的是一个年化通胀率冲到 17000%、近一半人口陷入贫困、央行外汇储备为负 120 亿美元的国家。一年后，阿根廷批发通胀从 54% 降到 2%，消费者通胀降到 2.7%，国家风险从 3000 个基点压到 770 个基点，惠誉把阿根廷主权评级上调到 CCC。上任第一个月就实现财政盈余，而在此之前，阿根廷在过去 123 年里有 113 年是赤字状态。
这期 Lex Fridman 播客的第 453 期，访谈用西班牙语和英语双语同步翻译进行，长达近两小时。米莱几乎没谈政治正确，谈的是经济数据、奥派经济学、罗斯巴德、米塞斯、摩西、梅西、滚石乐队、他的五条狗，以及为什么他不害怕被暗杀。
从“曲棍球杆”开始的经济学顿悟
米莱说，他真正理解自由的价值，是在 2013 到 2014 年间，以经济增长专家的身份研究数据的时候。
他看的是公元后两千年的人均 GDP 曲线。这条曲线在 1800 年之前几乎是平的，1800 年之后突然像曲棍球杆一样向上翘起。同一时期，人口在过去两百年里翻了七倍。
按传统新古典经济学的教科书，这组数据是个矛盾。经济学会告诉你，规模报酬递增会导致垄断和集中结构，而垄断和集中结构不是好事。但现实是，同期人类的贫困率从 95% 掉到了不到 10%，中等收入者的生活水平超过罗马皇帝，人口还增长了七倍。
一个把几十亿人从贫困中拽出来的东西，怎么可能按理论是坏的？
团队里有人建议他读罗斯巴德（Murray Newton Rothbard）那篇《垄断与竞争》。米莱说，他读完那一瞬间的反应是：“我过去二十年讲授的微观经济学市场结构理论，全都是错的。”这个念头在他心里引发了“剧烈的震荡”。他打电话给那位同事，问哪里能买到奥地利学派的书，第二天跑去书店，一次买了二三十本。
接下来他把钱分成了几份：狗粮、打车和吃饭、剩下的全部买书。然后通读米塞斯（Ludwig von Mises）的《人的行动》，从第一页开始，一个周末没停，读完为止。他说那是“脑子里的一场革命”。
罗斯巴德、米塞斯、哈耶克、霍普（Hans-Hermann Hoppe）、赫苏斯·韦尔塔·德索托（Jesús Huerta de Soto），以及门格尔（Carl Menger）、庞巴维克（Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk）。这条阅读路径最终把他带到阿尔贝托·贝内加斯·林奇（Alberto Benegas Lynch）那里，后者成了他的朋友，也成为他政治哲学的定义来源。
林奇对自由主义的定义是这样的：基于不侵犯原则，对他人人生规划的无限制尊重，并捍卫生命、自由与财产的权利。米莱说，一个人一旦接受了这个定义，事实上就已经是无政府资本主义者了。
方桌现实与圆桌理想
Lex 追问他的哲学定位。米莱的回答很干脆：严格来说，他是无政府资本主义者，厌恶国家政府，厌恶暴力。无政府资本主义是他的理想世界。
但现实生活有一堆约束条件。所以在现实里，他是一个“最小政府主义者”（minarchist）：尽可能缩小国家规模，尽可能拆除管制。
他给出了一个方桌圆桌的比喻。假设你不喜欢方桌，你只喜欢圆桌。但现实是，几个小时后你就要赶飞机，而这间屋子里只有方桌。你要么在这张方桌上接受采访，要么这个采访做不成。你怎么办？你适应现有条件。下一次采访也许可以安排在一张圆桌上，但今天，这张方桌解决不了。
约束分两种：短期内能改的，和中长期才能改的。他说自己的工作就是尽可能改掉前一种，同时开始处理后者。
然后是那个足球场的比喻，这一段值得完整保留。他说阿根廷最流行的运动是足球，去看一场阿根廷比赛，看台上全是天蓝色和白色，人声鼎沸，气氛极美。但那是外在的表演，它决定不了结果。球放在中场，球迷喊破嗓子球也不会动。把球踢动、把球打进门的是梅西。
他的意思是：如果你不亲自下场，你什么都做不成。而很多自由意志主义者和无政府资本主义者，全部的工作就是批评那些试图把世界带向自由的人。他们没意识到权力是零和博弈：如果自由派不去拿，左派就会去拿。把最猛烈的火力对准自己阵营的人，最终只会成为社会主义的帮手。
他还举了一个略带刻薄的例子。有些“无政府市场派”（agorist）批评罗斯巴德，因为罗斯巴德说必须进入政治，否则社会主义者会前进。有一次警察上门，他描述那个人“当时就吓尿了”。米莱的评语是：批评和主张很容易，但如果真的相信那套东西，就应该准备好坐牢。结果真到承担后果的时候，那个人僵住了，裤子湿了，最后接受了所有约束，因为不进监狱总比进监狱好。但他因此出卖了自己的理念。
不考虑现实约束，只会让你变成社会主义的功能性工具，因为它打击的全是自己人。（哈维尔·米莱）
接手一个技术性超通胀的国家
米莱先描述了接手时的资产负债表，这部分数据密度极高。
上任第一周，12 月第一周，通胀以每天 1% 的速度上涨，年化 3700%。到 12 月上半月，加速到年化 7500%。12 月的批发通胀是 54%，这个数字如果年化，对应的是每年 17000%。
此前十年阿根廷没有增长，人均 GDP 跌了大约 15%，接近 50% 的人生活在贫困中。
财政赤字相当于 GDP 的 15%。其中 5 个点在财政部，10 个点在央行，属于内生性货币发行。央行还有相当于四个货币基础的付息负债，且在同一天到期，意味着一天之内货币量可以翻五倍。比索计价的到期债务相当于 900 亿美元。央行净外汇储备是负 120 亿美元。央行还有 500 亿美元的商业债务。企业被扣留的分红有 100 亿美元。
“我们是自由主义者，我们不是自由主义的傻瓜。”米莱说。有些无政府自由派建议第一天就把所有管制全部放开，他明确说那会直接引发超通胀，贫困率会冲到 95%，庇隆党会组织超市哄抢，他们会被赶下台，庇隆派会在年初重回执政。
所以第一步必须是终结财政赤字。
被砍掉的东西包括：部委从 18 个减到 9 个，现在是 8 个；解雇了大约 5 万名公职人员，非绝对必要的岗位一律不续签；停止公共工程；取消对各省的自主转移支付；稀释公共部门工资；取消经济补贴，把公用事业费率恢复到正常水平。
他说，过去 123 年里，阿根廷有 113 年是赤字，剩下 10 年没有赤字，是因为那 10 年根本没还债。所以“没有赤字”这个说法是彻底虚假的。所有人都说不可能做到，说调整幅度不能超过一个百分点。他们在 1 月，也就是执政的第一个月，实现了财政平衡。
还有一项他称为“消除贫困管理者”的操作。过去的模式是：穷人通过中间人领取补助，但必须提供一种“对等服务”，而这个对等服务的核实由“皮克特罗”（piqueteros，封路抗议组织）来做。签字的代价是，对等服务要拿走一半的钱。取消这个环节之后，中间人不再能勒索，同样的钱到穷人手里翻倍。
随着财政平衡实现、不再需要印钞融资、利息和部分本金按期支付，债务市场重新建立起来。他得以把债务从央行转移到财政部，这相当于大约 10% GDP 的调整。
15 个百分点的财政调整，人类史上最大
把财政部 5 个点和央行 10 个点加起来，米莱说这是人类历史上最大规模的财政调整，15 个 GDP 百分点。
这笔钱去哪了，才是他真正想讲的部分。他的说法是：其中大部分以更低的铸币税、更低的通胀率形式还给了人民。真实税负是国家规模，国家拿走的东西减少，资源就回到了私人部门。他提到 15 个 GDP 百分点中的 13.5 个点就这样还了回去。12 月时他们在讨论超通胀，现在他们在讨论 30 年期贷款。
通胀数据的压缩幅度是这样的：批发通胀从 54% 降到 2%，除以 27。年化 17000% 的通胀，现在接近每年 28%。最新一次消费者通胀是 2.7%。
这里有一个他觉得最值得说的细节。目前阿根廷维持每月 2% 的汇率贬值节奏，加上国际通胀，要从消费者观察到的通胀里减掉大约 2.5 个百分点。也就是说，真正的货币性通胀是每月 0.2%，年化 2.4%。他的表述是：“原来大家在讨论通胀会不会到 17000%，现在我们在把通胀压到 2.5% 的年率，这很惊人。”
他强调这次稳定化不同以往的地方：没有经历前置的超通胀（超通胀会稀释货币资产，自然恢复货币需求，简化稳定过程）；没有采取任何强制征用。他对比了阿根廷历史上最成功的可兑换计划（Convertibility）之前，阿方辛政府时期通胀到过 5000%，梅内姆时期到过 1200%，还有 BONEX 计划强制置换债务。而这次的央行资产负债表清理，450 亿美元全部是自愿完成的，六个月做完，同时没有控制价格，也没有固定汇率。
他点出了过去所有稳定计划的通病：为了快速见效，先调费率，再宣布计划。而米莱政府没有这个奢侈条件，只能边跑边做。几个月前企业费率只能覆盖成本的 10%，现在覆盖 80%。
他引用了一篇论文《Passing the Buck》，作者是 Gerardo della Paolera、Bózzoli 和 Irigoin，论证梅内姆第一任期是阿根廷历史上最好的政府，并分析了可兑换计划成功的两个原因。米莱的结论是：把这些因素全部计入，他这一轮的反通胀过程比可兑换计划更真实，也更深刻，而且同时在推进八倍规模的结构性改革，手里只有 15% 的众议员和 10% 的参议员。
凭借第 7023 号行政令和《基础法》，阿根廷在经济自由度排名上跃升了 90 位。他说今天阿根廷的制度水平已经接近德国、法国、意大利，接下来会超过爱尔兰最好的时期，超过澳大利亚、新西兰和瑞士。“毫无疑问，我们会成为全世界最自由的国家。”还有 3200 项结构性改革在排队。
增长预期上，分析师原本预计明年增长 5% 到 6%，摩根大通已经上修。经济学家 Juan Pablo Nicolini 在央行货币会议上展示的研究表明，仅凭已经完成的财政改革，十年内人均 GDP 可以翻倍，对应年增长 7%。
贫困率先“变差”再变好
Lex 问到了最难的部分：这些激进改革最痛的代价是什么。
米莱的回答是：他们没有制造贫困。贫困是继承来的，他们做的是把它揭示出来。
他的解释是，阿根廷过去是一个全面价格管制的经济体，财政赤字靠印钞融资。仅最后一年，就有 13 个 GDP 百分点的赤字是靠印钞填的。价格管制叠加在被纳入 CPI 的价格之上，导致通胀数据被扭曲。而阿根廷用收入线衡量贫困和赤贫，被扭曲的价格自然扭曲了贫困率。
他用一个思想实验说明问题：你被放在一座孤岛上，有人给你一百万美元。你能做什么？什么都做不了，因为没有东西可买。价格标签存在，但货架上没有货。
他讲了一个阿根廷教授 Juan Carlos de Pablo 的笑话。一个人去集市问花瓶多少钱，摊主说 5000。这人说街对面才 1000。摊主说那你去街对面买。这人说：“街对面没有 1000 的。”摊主说：“等这儿有货的时候，也是 1000。”
米莱的意思是：有标价但买不到，这个价格就没有意义。超市货架是空的，统计上你看起来很好，实际上你什么都买不到。如果维持原状，人会饿死。
唯一能救人的做法是让价格透明、让商品重新出现。而价格一旦透明，基本食品篮和总基本篮的成本也透明了，也就是赤贫线和贫困线透明了。于是贫困率跳到了 57%。
真正的转折点出现在 4 月。米莱说阿根廷在 4 月触底，随后开始周期性复苏。实际工资连续每月跑赢通胀，名义工资已经回到去年 11 月的水平，养老金同理。库存周期回补带来活动反弹，非正规部门的工资涨幅最大。所以贫困率和赤贫率的下降速度比预想快得多，从 1 月的 57% 降到 46%，下降 11 个百分点。他强调在这个过程中“没有丢掉一个工作岗位”。
按去季节化数据，8 月的经济活动已经回到去年 12 月的水平。也就是说，这一年做完人类史上最大规模财政调整之后，通胀更低、穷人更少、实际工资更高、GDP 比起点还高。而且以美元计，今天的汇率比上任时还低。
他特别提到一个政治信号：通常总统支持率最高点是刚上任那一刻。而他现在和政府的民众认可度都高于就职时。“既然在最糟的时刻我们的形象都没有受损，我们也没有背弃理念，现在一切都在变好，为什么要改？”
与“种姓”的战争
Lex 把话题转向“种姓”（la casta），也就是那个腐败的政治建制。
米莱列了几条战线。先是封路。上任前阿根廷每年大约有 900 次封路，一群人以此为业，阻断交通，还拿着社会补助和大笔资金。取消“贫困中间人”两天后，一位最有名的皮克特罗领袖号召游行，声称会有 5 万人参加，实际预期是 10 万，想把它办成一场胜利展示。人力资本部切断了他们的资金，同时颁布反封路协议：封路者不发福利，违法者入狱，并通过交通渠道反复播报。
结果那场游行来了 3000 人。从那以后他们不再封路了。
第二条战线是公共工程。第三条是对各省的自主转移支付，这些资金过去以尽可能不透明的会计方式拨付，中央政府与省长合谋，钱被挪作他用。人力资本部现在不断向法院提交刑事控告，不在媒体上，在法院里。
他提到两个具体案件：两天前克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·德基什内尔（Cristina Fernández de Kirchner）因腐败被判刑，第二天政府取消了她的特权养老金。还有基什内尔派用残疾抚恤金搞腐败，有一座城市的残疾抚恤金领取者人数比城市人口还多。
他反复强调一点：每一次放松管制，都是从某个政客、某家靠特权生存的企业、或某个权力集团手里拿走一项特权。这就是为什么反改革的火力这么猛。
记者的敲诈和 X 的冲击
米莱把这部分称为自己最重要的战役之一：媒体与社交媒体的腐败。
他取消了官方广告投放。结果是，即便政府每周产出大量好消息，媒体依然骂得极凶。他的描述是：这些媒体要求垄断麦克风，它们有权侮辱、伤害、冒犯别人，但不许任何人回嘴，甚至期望他不回应。这就是为什么阿根廷一大部分新闻业憎恨 X，而自由意志主义者热爱 X。
这些自称捍卫言论自由的记者，真正想要的是审查他们不喜欢的思想。因为他们到 ideas 的自由市场上正面对打会输，所以要求社交网络实施审查。当你把真相告诉一个社会主义者，他会哭，说这是仇恨言论。不，这算不上仇恨言论。是你把事情搞砸了。（哈维尔·米莱）
他讲了一个具体的勒索模式。一个记者拿着一个文件夹找到某个人，说“如果你不给我 X 金额，我就把这些都发出去，毁掉你的名声”。他知道一个案子，记者对一位商人做了两次，商人拒绝付款，记者真的发了，两次都上了法庭，两次都输了。但司法程序极慢，而在那期间，人的名声已经被弄脏了。
米莱的判断是：X 和社交媒体夺走了他们对麦克风的垄断，也就夺走了勒索的经济收益。所以他读阿根廷报纸时，认为 85% 的内容是假的。他的原话很重：大多数阿根廷记者，当然有值得尊敬的例外，本质上是说谎者、诽谤者和污蔑者；如果那个他们渴望的垄断还在，他们会毫不犹豫地要钱换沉默，因为“他们就是那样的人，是勒索者、小偷、腐败分子”。
关于个人承受的攻击，他讲了几个细节。他父亲做过两次心脏手术，一位记者散布关于他父亲的谎言，他父亲住院期间几乎死于心脏病发作。有人派了三架无人机到总统官邸上空监视他。他的狗也成了攻击对象，他把那五条狗称为“四足的孩子”，是“宇宙里最美好的存在”。
Lex 问他是否害怕被暗杀。米莱的回答是：
在奴役中活着有什么意义？如果我愿意为我的价值观付出生命，那么没有自由地活着还有什么意义？（哈维尔·米莱）
他讲了西班牙歌手 Nino Bravo 的歌《Libre》，讲的是 18 岁的 Peter Fetcher，柏林墙开始修建时家人被分到西侧，他意外留在了东侧，用整整一年策划逃亡，在逃跑时被击毙。
他还讲了 1998 年在旧金山参观 Alcatraz 监狱的语音导览。最让他印象深刻的是，导览说对囚犯而言最难熬的地方是那片娱乐场，篮球场、运动区、所有休闲设施都在那里。因为那片场地正对旧金山湾，囚犯每天看着旧金山建起来、发展、变化，而他们被关在里面，无法参与。这让他们彻底明白自由的价值。
梅西，以及那些接近上帝的时刻
访谈在这里明显松了下来。Lex 说自己是马拉多纳和梅西的终身粉丝，请米莱给出历史最佳。
米莱说他看过马拉多纳踢球。1980 年马拉多纳在阿根廷青年人的最后一年他看过，1981 年在博卡他看过，1979 年日本世青赛他也看过。他极度享受马拉多纳的才华。但历史最佳，不只是阿根廷最佳，是超过贝利的历史最佳，是梅西。
他引用了一篇题为《梅西是不可能的》（Messi is Impossible）的文章。文章考察了从中场往前的每一个位置，结论是梅西在每一个位置上都做到了最好。他说一个球员能在一两个区域做到顶尖已经很了不起，C 罗在两个区域几乎达到了梅西的水平，但没有参与其余部分，而梅西每个位置都占了。考虑到贝利时代的进球率和梅西黄金期及整个生涯的对比，等价进球数远超贝利。
Lex 补充说，这不只是数字和世界杯，还有场上那些天才瞬间。米莱同意，说梅西做的事情在技术上看起来不可能，在物理上看起来不可能，那些动作不遵守人类逻辑，就像看博尔特跑步一样。
关于 1986 年世界杯对英格兰那场，他在教父家里看的。他形容那场球“无法用语言描述”，就像让他描述对伴侣的爱一样，做不到。然后他把话题抬到了另一个层面：
有些人类有特权，能够振动得离上帝更近。（哈维尔·米莱）
他举了普契尼（Puccini）的咏叹调，说听《燕子》（La Rondine）和《贾尼·斯基基》（Gianni Schicchi）里那些著名的段落，会觉得普契尼是在被上帝口述。这些东西怎么用语言表达？做不到。他说正因为如此，在犹太教里人们不使用上帝的名字，因为这种东西没法用词说出来。人能做的只是享受它，并为能够见证它而感恩。
守门员与总统
米莱年轻时踢过球，位置是守门员。Lex 说很多人认为那是最难也最重要的位置，问他守门员和总统哪个更难。
米莱的回答很漂亮。守门员是唯一能用手的球员，是唯一穿不同球衣的球员，训练是孤独的。最关键的是，进球是全场的顶点：当自己球队进球时，所有人都在另一头庆祝，守门员一个人留在原地。而丢球时，他承受最直接的冲击。更不公平的是，守门员一失误就是乌龙球，相当于两个球，比例完全失衡。
所以守门员性格必须极其强悍，习惯孤独。而权力恰恰就是这样：做决定的时候，你是一个人。而总统的决定会影响数百万人，一旦犯错，那个“乌龙球”的后果由数百万人承担。
他把这段经历称为“人生的大学”，和经济学训练、自由主义训练、艰难的童年放在一起，共同构成了今天能当总统的工具箱。
上帝、摩西，以及“自由万岁”
Lex 问上帝在他生命中扮演什么角色，上帝是谁。
米莱说信仰是根本性的元素，尤其是最近这些年，他深度投入犹太教教义和《妥拉》（Torah）的学习，这给了他巨大的背景来面对过去几年的逆境。至于上帝是谁：“他是创造者，是造物主。我称他为‘那一位’（The One）。”
Lex 接着问：对人类的指引，看不见的市场之手和上帝之手，哪个更好？米莱的回答只有一句：“它们完全同步。”
他的英雄是摩西。他给了一个极具个人风格的类比：摩西的壮举，相当于一个人带着兄弟亚伦，正面对抗美国、中国和俄罗斯联合起来的力量。摩西对拉美西斯说“让我的人民走”，拉美西斯抵抗，然后天堂的力量把他碾过去了。
关于“El Loco”（疯子）这个绰号，他完全不在意，甚至享受，因为从 10 岁起就这么被叫。他举了圣马丁（San Martín）说要翻越安第斯山脉去解放阿根廷、智利和秘鲁时被人叫疯子，也举了米开朗基罗、爱因斯坦。然后回到那句开场白：疯子和天才的区别是成功。
“Viva la libertad, carajo”这句话，他解释了三层。第一层是他对上帝的信仰，感恩造物主每日赐予的美好。第二层来自《马加比书》3:19：“战争的胜利不取决于军队的规模，而取决于来自天堂的力量”，讲的是犹太人、马加比家族战胜希腊人并收复圣殿。第三层，那是他的战吼。
市场、社会主义与新古典的陷阱
访谈里有一段偏理论的对话，值得单独拎出来。
Lex 问，市场为什么能作为人类的指引运作得这么好。米莱先定义市场：市场是一个自愿交换的过程，个体通过转让产权进行合作，产权得到保障，这个系统驱动资源配置。
然后他引米塞斯《社会主义》里的论证：没有私有财产，价格就不存在，资源就会被错配。他的例子是：为什么路不用黄金修？因为你心里有经济计算的观念，有价格的概念。没有私有财产就没有价格，所以自由市场资本主义是人类为资源配置发明的最好机制。
这还意味着市场必须自由，必须允许自由进入和退出，也就是竞争。他提到 Israel Kirzner（原文 ASR 写作 Gerstner）对竞争的理解，以及 Baumol 的“可竞争市场”（contestable markets）概念。
他最核心的一句判断是：在自由市场资本主义里，你只有用更好的质量、更好的价格服务他人才能成功。所以你做得好，社会就更好。他讲第一次见马斯克时，马斯克说他每天醒来想的是今天能为人类解决什么问题，这件事让他极为钦佩，他妹妹也提到过。
然后是那句在经济学界会引发争议的话：市场失灵不存在。他说这是新古典经济学的问题，是他们所用数学工具导致的问题，不是日常生活里的真实问题，是“经济学家脑子里的问题”。他的新书《资本主义、社会主义与新古典陷阱》（Capitalism, Socialism, and the Neoclassical Trap）处理的正是这个议题。
核心论证来自米塞斯：只有两种制度，自由企业资本主义和社会主义。而哈耶克在《通往奴役之路》里证明，任何中间方案都不稳定，会向社会主义漂移。因为一次干预造成政府失灵，政府失灵招来更多干预，形成一个不断加深干预的陷阱。而新古典学者带着“市场失灵”理论，实际上在处理根本上是数学性质的问题，结果是抬高了干预水平。
他提到顾问委员会主席 Demian Reidel，哈佛博士，导师是 Kenneth Rogoff，Rogoff 说 Reidel 是他最好的学生。几天前 Reidel 做了一项检索算法与政策建议的调查，把结果画成红到蓝的图谱：越红越接近社会主义，中间是黄色，蓝色是自由市场理念。发现是，政策建议里最大的一块，偏向左侧。
这就是他那本书里论点的经验证据。
几条狗，以及不原谅这件事
Lex 问他从“四足的孩子”身上学到什么。米莱说，学到了无条件的爱。他说自己的希伯来名字意思是“忠实的朋友”，中国生肖里他属狗。他认为忠诚和正派是定义自己的东西，而这些美德在狗身上能找到，它们无条件地爱。
然后他补了一句自我批评：“从精神层面说，它们在灵性上比我高，因为我不会忘记，也不会原谅伤害过我的人。所有侮辱过我、诽谤过我、批评过我的人，我记得每一个，但我没有那份伟大去原谅他们。”
关于政治中的背叛，他说取决于你对那个人的预期。有些人你本来就无所期待，被背叛了也不会难受，因为你面对的是一个和你价值观不同的人。政治就是这样，你会遇到很多不共享你价值观的人，但这是成本收益问题，你得让船继续开，还是干脆让它沉？他的选择是：“我战斗到底。”
给年轻人的那句话
Lex 请他对那些钦佩他、想活出影响力的人给点建议。
米莱说他做这些事的时候，没想过要影响世界。他先定义了什么让自己幸福，然后按那个定义一致地活着。最重要的一条是：永不放弃，而且绝不半心半意。
我宁愿因为失败而哭，也不愿因为从未尝试而哭不出来。我是完美主义者，犯错的时候确实难受。但我更愿意去把事情做成。如果搞砸了，那是生活的一部分，但我不必为自己在那一刻没有做该做的事而后悔。（哈维尔·米莱）
关于希望，他的答案落在技术上：社交媒体的普及和整个技术革命，让越来越多的人意识到自由对和平与繁荣有多重要。他说，尽管官僚和精英不知疲倦地试图奴役我们，一股自由的浪潮已经释放出来，只要我们真的去打这场仗，世界会好得多。
关于马斯克，他讲了三段交往。第一次会面原定不超过 50 分钟，实际聊了 45 分钟多一点，因为马斯克要赶飞机。让他意外的是，马斯克主动提起人口学和增长的议题，还问他打算什么时候往这个方向努力。米莱说他已有五个孩子。马斯克回：“四条腿的不算。”第二次会面是大学里出现反犹示威、巴勒斯坦旗帜和骚扰犹太人的时候，马斯克对此非常投入，主动谈文化战争。第三次聊了两个半小时，谈自由和美国大选的关键所在。米莱说，马斯克对阿根廷放松管制部正在做的事非常感兴趣，并且已经在和别人一起尝试复制这套模式。
关于特朗普，他说欣赏两点。一是特朗普理解文化战争的性质，公开正面硬刚社会主义，完全看懂了“觉醒病毒”。二是勇气，那次暗杀只差一个巧合，他正好动了一下，然后他没有被吓住，继续往前。米莱说自己能共鸣，因为大概没有哪个阿根廷政治人物经历过他那样的全媒体负面攻势。他把特朗普称为“维京人”。他还讲了见到史泰龙的场景：正要上台演讲，看到史泰龙站在那里，史泰龙还认识他，“我掐了自己一下，这不可能是真的”。
地缘政治上，他明确说阿根廷决定做美国的盟友，盟友是美国和以色列，因为两者代表西方世界、代表自由世界，代表自由民主对抗专制者。他说他在竞选集会上就公开讲这个，台下会有人举以色列国旗。他还提到希腊诸部族联合对抗波斯人的比喻，说那场从公元前 500 年延续至今的斗争还在继续。他表达了希望深化贸易与投资关系，也想加入北约。
关于美元化，他做了一个澄清：如果翻他所有表态，他讲的是货币竞争，是消灭央行，并非严格的美元化。如果民众之后选择美元，那是他们的选择。他提出的模型是形成一个按个体需求定制的货币篮子。他承认今天阿根廷已经存在货币竞争，想用什么货币交易都可以。所谓内生美元化，前提是先清理央行：500 亿美元的商业债务（CIRA）要处理，100 亿美元的分红问题要处理，期间已经核销并清理了 450 亿美元资产负债表。他说央行破产的时候不能直接关掉，因为得先把央行全部债务赎回，包括货币发行和付息负债。付息负债清完之后，剩下就是货币基础。
当前的状态是货币量固定、基础货币不增长，随着货币需求上升，人们可以直接用美元交易，不需要卖掉美元让比索升值。经济越增长，美元相对比索的份额就越大，到某个时点比索相对美元的规模小到一定程度，关掉央行就是件很容易的事。他说：“如果现在给我钱让我美元化，我立刻就干，没问题。”他还提到一个错过的机会：央行的债券当时在 20 美分交易，现在已经到 60 到 70 美分，如果按 20 美分卖掉，“以那帮反对派蠢货的水平，我今天就该在监狱里了”。
你可以从这期访谈里拿走的几件事
- 区分理想和约束。米莱把自己定位成无政府资本主义者，但执政时是最小政府主义者。他的方桌圆桌比喻值得记住：你可以喜欢圆桌，但今天只有方桌，那就先在方桌上把事情做了，同时开始准备下一次换圆桌。任何改革方案如果不区分“短期能改的约束”和“中长期才能改的约束”，都只是自我感动。
- 先看清顺序，再动手。他没有按“自由派全放开”的教条第一天全开，判断是那样会直接引发超通胀、贫困冲到 95%、政权被推翻。他先做的是终结财政赤字。任何激进变革，第一步应该是拆掉那个会让整个系统立刻崩掉的引信。
- 指标变差，先问是恶化还是揭盖子。阿根廷贫困率从 41% 跳到 57%，米莱的解释是价格管制解除后，贫困线才第一次真实可见。评估任何改革时，看到指标突然恶化，先分辨它反映的是新现实，还是旧数据本来就在骗人。
- 给数据留出验证窗口。给数据留出验证窗口。4 月触底、8 月回到起点、工资连续跑赢通胀、贫困率降到 46%，这些都是可以被证伪的时间点。判断一项改革有没有效果，别急着听叙事，先找出那个“到什么时候应该看到什么”的具体承诺，再等到那个时间点回头看。米莱这期访谈里最硬的地方，是他把每个结论都挂在一个可查的数字上，而不是挂在情绪上。
- 把“特权”当作改革的计量单位。他的框架是：每一项放松管制，都是从某个政客、某家靠特权生存的企业、或某个权力集团手里拿走一样东西。阻力的强度因此可以提前估算。任何改革方案，先列清楚谁失去了什么，就能预判反对声浪会从哪个方向来、会以什么名义出现。
- 给中间人定价。取消“贫困管理者”那一招的核心不在削减福利总额，在于切断中间环节。同样的钱，绕过中间人之后到受助者手里翻了一倍。设计任何补贴、援助、转移支付时，先算清楚中间环节抽走了多少，再决定这笔钱该不该经过它。
- 让指标透明，哪怕它先变难看。价格管制下的低通胀和低贫困率，是靠货架空空撑出来的。一件事的真实成本被隐藏起来，所有基于它的决策就都是错的。宁可在第一年看到难看的数字，也别在一个假数字上盖三年楼。
- 对“不可能”的预判保持怀疑。所有人都告诉他调整幅度不可能超过一个百分点，他在执政第一个月做出了财政平衡；所有人说央行那 10 个 GDP 点的调整做不了，他做完了。把这些“不可能”当成一个待验证的假设，前提是你手上真的有一套自洽的算法，而不是一腔热血。
- 守住不需要妥协的那部分。他在经济政策上可以谈约束、谈顺序、谈节奏，唯独在“自由”这件事上不做交易，给出的理由是：在奴役中活着没有意义。每个人或每个组织都需要划出这样一条线，其余部分才谈得上灵活性；否则所有的妥协都会滑成一道斜坡。
- 别在自家阵营里打最狠的仗。他尖锐批评那些只批评、不下场的人，理由是权力是零和游戏，自由派不拿，对手就拿。这不意味着不能内部争论，而是说：把最强的火力留给真正要争夺的战场，批评同路人是一种廉价的道德满足。
- 承认运气，但不要依赖它。“疯子和天才的区别是成功”，这句话的另一面是：同一套判断换一个时间点，结果可能是灾难。他在访谈里多次提到时机、汇率、债券价格这些自己控制不了的变量。做重大决策时，把“如果运气不好会怎样”当成必备的一栏。
访谈的最后，Lex 说他感谢米莱为自由而战。米莱回了一句很少见他说的客气话：谢谢你的教养，很多采访者不是这样的，你本来有窗口可以打偏，但你没有。
整期节目里最锋利的地方，反而不在那些经济数据上。一句是林奇那个自由主义的定义，它给出了一把尺子；另一句是“疯子和天才的区别是成功”，它承认了评判权最终在结果手里。前者让你知道该往哪走，后者提醒你别太早宣布自己走对了。
米莱没有试图证明自己是天才。他给阿根廷留下的是一个可以被检验的实验：15 个 GDP 点的财政调整、3200 项待办改革、一个允许自由进出的货币市场，还有一串具体到月份的数字。到 2025 年、2026 年，这些数字会自己说话。
那份实验清单里还有一个容易被忽略的细节：他反复说“我们还在做”，而不是“我们做完了”。3200 项待办， deregulation 部每天拆一到五条，倒计时牌挂在办公室墙上。这个做法的价值在于，它把“自由”从一句口号变成了一项可以被日复一日清点的工程量。
读到这里，能带走的东西大概是那个方桌圆桌的比喻。理想负责指方向，不负责判自己死刑。手上有什么条件，就在什么条件里动手，一边动手一边把能改的约束一条条改掉，剩下的交给结果。
至于是疯子还是天才，米莱自己给了答案。剩下的问题是，你有没有那个勇气，先去做那件可能被人叫作疯狂的事。
So what is the difference between a madman and a genius?
那么疯子和天才有什么区别呢？
00:00 Success.
成功。
The following is a conversation with Javier Milei, the president of Argentina.
以下是与阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱的对话。
00:10 He is a libertarian, anarcho-capitalist, and economist, who campaigned with a chainsaw that symbolized his promise to slash the corrupt bureaucracy of the state.
他是一位自由主义者、无政府资本主义者和经济学家，他在竞选时拿着一把电锯，象征着他要削减国家腐败官僚机构的承诺。
He stepped into the presidency one year ago, with a country on the brink of hyperinflation, deepened debt and suffering from mass unemployment and poverty.
一年前，他就任总统，当时的国家正处于恶性通货膨胀、债务加深、大规模失业和贫困的边缘。
He took this crisis head on, transforming one of Latin America’s largest economies through pure free market principles.
他直面这场危机，通过纯粹的自由市场原则改变了拉丁美洲最大的经济体之一。
In just a few months in office, he already achieved Argentina’s first fiscal surplus in 16 years, and not just avoided the hyperinflation but brought inflation down to its lowest in three years.
他上任短短几个月，就实现了阿根廷16年来首次财政盈余，不仅避免了恶性通货膨胀，而且将通货膨胀率降至三年来的最低水平。
01:02 We discuss all of this in detail, both the successes and the challenges.
我们详细讨论所有这些，包括成功和挑战。
His depth of knowledge of economic principles, metrics and data was truly impressive and refreshing to hear from a world leader.
他对经济原理、指标和数据的深入了解确实令人印象深刻，听听一位世界领导人的讲话令人耳目一新。
But even bigger than the economic transformation of Argentina, Javier represents the universal fight against government corruption and the fight for freedom, economic freedom, political freedom, and freedom of speech.
但哈维尔比阿根廷的经济转型更重要，它代表了反对政府腐败的普遍斗争以及争取自由、经济自由、政治自由和言论自由的斗争。
He has many critics, many of whom a part of the corrupt establishment he’s seeking to dismantle, but many are simply Argentinian citizens, scared of the pain his radical policies may bring, at least in the short term.
他有很多批评者，其中许多人是他试图摧毁的腐败机构的一部分，但许多人只是阿根廷公民，害怕他的激进政策可能带来的痛苦，至少在短期内是这样。
But whether one disagrees with his methods or not, no one can deny that his presidency marks one of the most ambitious attempts at economic transformation in modern history, and that Javier Milei is truly a force of nature, combining the rigor of an economist with the passion of a revolutionary in the fight for freedom of a nation he loves.
但无论人们是否同意他的方法，没有人可以否认他的总统任期标志着现代历史上最雄心勃勃的经济转型尝试之一，而哈维尔·米莱确实是一股自然力量，在为他所爱的国家争取自由的斗争中，将经济学家的严谨与革命者的激情结合在一起。
Argentina is one of my favorite countries, so I sincerely hope he succeeds.
阿根廷是我最喜欢的国家之一，所以我真诚地希望他成功。
02:13 This interview was conducted with the President speaking Spanish and me speaking English with an interpreter simultaneously translating.
这次采访是在总统讲西班牙语和我讲英语的情况下进行的，并有一名口译员进行同声翻译。
We make the episode available overdubbed and subtitled in both English and Spanish, thanks to our great friends at ElevenLabs.
感谢 ElevenLabs 的好朋友，我们为这一集提供了英语和西班牙语配音和字幕。
If you’re watching on YouTube, you can switch between English and Spanish by clicking the gear icon, selecting audio track, and then choosing the language.
如果您在 YouTube 上观看，则可以通过单击齿轮图标、选择音轨，然后选择语言来在英语和西班牙语之间切换。
Same with the captions.
与字幕相同。
If you’re watching on X, I’ll post both Spanish and English versions separately.
如果您在 X 上观看，我将分别发布西班牙语和英语版本。
If you’re watching on Spotify or listening elsewhere, I’ll probably only post the English version.
如果您在 Spotify 上观看或在其他地方收听，我可能只会发布英文版本。
This is a first time for me doing something like this in a foreign language.
这是我第一次用外语做这样的事情。
It was challenging, but illuminating.
这很有挑战性，但也很有启发性。
I hope to talking to many world leaders for two to three hours in this way, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, and Xi Jinping.
我希望通过这种方式与许多世界领导人进行两到三个小时的交谈，其中包括泽连斯基、普京、莫迪和习近平。
I want to explore who they are, how they think, and how they hope to help their country and humanity flourish.
我想探索他们是谁，他们如何思考，以及他们希望如何帮助他们的国家和人类繁荣发展。
This is the Lex Fridman Podcast.
这是莱克斯·弗里德曼播客。
To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description.
为了支持它，请在说明中查看我们的赞助商。
And now, dear friends, here’s Javier Milei.
现在，亲爱的朋友们，这是哈维尔·米莱。
03:27 When did you first understand the value of freedom, especially economic freedom?
您什么时候第一次理解自由，尤其是经济自由的价值？
Well, actually, I came to understand the ideas of freedom as an economic growth specialist back in the years of 2013 to 2014.
嗯，实际上，早在 2013 年至 2014 年，作为一名经济增长专家，我就开始理解自由的理念。
03:33 I could see that per capita GDP statistics over the last 2,000 years of the Christian era essentially looked like a hockey stick, indicating that per capita GDP remained almost constant until around 1800, after which it accelerated sharply.
我可以看到，基督教时代最后2000年的人均GDP统计数据基本上就像一个曲棍球棒，表明人均GDP在1800年左右之前几乎保持不变，之后急剧加速。
In the same context of that phenomenal increase in productivity and per capita GDP, the population had multiplied sevenfold over the preceding 200 years.
在生产力和人均国内生产总值显着增长的背景下，人口在过去 200 年里增加了七倍。
04:20 So basically, in economics, that means you get increasing returns, and the presence of increasing returns implies the existence of monopolies, concentrated structures, and according to traditional neoclassical economic theory, the presence of monopolies and concentrated structures is not a good thing.
所以基本上，在经济学中，这意味着你获得递增的回报，而递增回报的存在意味着垄断、集中结构的存在，而根据传统的新古典经济理论，垄断和集中结构的存在并不是一件好事。
But at the same time, one could see that living standards had increased tremendously and that middle-income people ended up living far better than emperors did in the Roman era, and the population had gone from having 95% of people in extreme poverty to less than 10%.
但与此同时，人们的生活水平也得到了极大的提高，中等收入人群的生活水平远远好于罗马时代的皇帝，人口的赤贫率也从95%下降到了10%以下。
And in that context, the question was, how it could be that something that had lifted so many people out of poverty, that had improved human conditions so much, could be something bad for economic theory, meaning something was not right.
在这种背景下，问题是，让如此多的人摆脱贫困、极大地改善人类条件的东西，怎么可能对经济理论不利，意味着有些东西是不对的。
05:20 So in that context, I remember that one of the people who worked on my team suggested I read an article by Murray Newton Rothbard called Monopoly and Competition.
因此，在这种情况下，我记得我团队的一位工作人员建议我阅读默里·牛顿·罗斯巴德 (Murray Newton Rothbard) 撰写的一篇名为《垄断与竞争》的文章。
I remember reading it like it was today, and after reading it carefully, I said, “Everything I’ve taught about market structure in the last 20 years in courses on microeconomics is wrong.” This caused a very strong internal commotion in me.
我记得像今天一样读它，仔细读完后，我说：“过去20年我在微观经济学课程中讲授的有关市场结构的一切都是错误的。”这在我内心引起了非常强烈的骚动。
So I called this person who used work with me, and they recommended a place to buy Austrian School of Economics books, and I remember I bought at least 20 or 30 books, which I went to pick up one Saturday afternoon.
于是我给这个和我一起工作的人打电话，他们推荐了一个买奥地利经济学院书籍的地方，我记得我至少买了20、30本，一个周六下午我去取的。
And when I visited the bookstore, I was fascinated by all the stuff they had there.
当我参观书店时，我被那里的所有东西迷住了。
06:18 So I went back the next day and I started calculating how much money I needed to pay for my dog’s food.
所以第二天我回去，开始计算我需要花多少钱来买我的狗粮。
That’s my four-legged child, and how much I needed to spend on the taxi fare and food.
那是我的四足孩子，还有我需要花多少钱的出租车费和食物。
And then with what I have left, I spent all of it on more books.
然后我用剩下的钱买了更多的书。
And then I started to read very intensively, and I remember for example, the experience of reading Human Action by Mises, and this was a book that I didn’t know about.
然后我开始非常精读，我记得比如读米塞斯的《人类行动》的经历，这是一本我不知道的书。
And I remember that on the following weekend, I started to read this book right from the first page, and I didn’t stop until I finished it, and that was a true revolution in my head.
我记得在接下来的周末，我从第一页开始读这本书，直到读完才停下来，那是我头脑中真正的革命。
And having the chance to read Austrian authors like Rothbard, Mises, Hayek, Hoppe and Jesus Huerta de Soto, or others like Juan Ramon Rallo, Philipp Bagus and Walter Block, for example.
有机会阅读罗斯巴德、米塞斯、哈耶克、霍普和耶稣韦尔塔·德索托等奥地利作家，或胡安·拉蒙·拉洛、菲利普·巴古斯和沃尔特·布洛克等其他作家的作品。
07:27 That was very inspirational, and at one point I got the opportunity to read related to the works of Alberto Benegas Lynch [foreign language 00:07:38], and I also had the pleasure and honor to meet him.
这非常鼓舞人心，有一次我有机会读到阿尔贝托·贝内加斯·林奇的相关作品[外语00:07:38]，而且我也很高兴和荣幸见到他。
And today we are actually friends.
今天我们实际上是朋友。
So that paved the way for me to approach the ideas of freedom.
这为我接近自由的理念铺平了道路。
And another book that was a very significant influence and impact on me was the Principles of Political Economics by Menger.
而另一本对我影响和影响非常重大的书是门格尔的《政治经济学原理》。
It was truly eye-opening, or let’s say, for reading Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, these were things that really challenged all of my former thinking.
这确实令人大开眼界，或者说，阅读欧根·冯·庞巴维克的著作，这些事情确实挑战了我以前的所有想法。
I had a vague idea and poor about the Austrian School.
我对奥地利学派的认识很模糊，也很差。
The only thing I had read about the Austrian School until then had been Money and Time, a very good book by Garrison.
在那之前我唯一读过的关于奥地利学派的书是《金钱与时间》，这是加里森写的一本非常好的书。
But now that I understand a little bit more about Austrian economics, I know that it was rather poor.
但现在我对奥地利经济学有了更多的了解，我知道它相当贫穷。
This doesn’t mean that the book isn’t good, but there were a whole lot of things to read that ended up being truly fascinating.
这并不意味着这本书不好，而是有很多东西值得一读，最终确实令人着迷。
So from that, what is now, today, and maybe you can talk about the evolution, is your philosophy, economics philosophy.
因此，从现在开始，今天，也许你可以谈论演变，是你的哲学，经济学哲学。
08:52 You’ve described yourself as an anarcho-capitalist, market anarchists, libertarian.
您将自己描述为无政府资本主义者、市场无政府主义者、自由主义者。
That’s the ideal, and then maybe in practice and reality, you’ve said that you’re more of a minarchist.
这是理想的情况，也许在实践和现实中，你说过你更像是一个小政府主义者。
So lay it all out.
所以把一切都摆出来。
What’s your economics philosophy today?
您今天的经济哲学是什么？
Strictly speaking, I am an anarcho-capitalist.
严格来说，我是一个无政府资本主义者。
09:19 I despise the state government.
我鄙视州政府。
I despise violence.
我鄙视暴力。
Let us suppose we take the definition of liberalism.
让我们假设我们采用自由主义的定义。
I usually use the definition of liberalism given by Alberto Benegas Lynch [foreign language 00:09:37], which is very much in line with the definition of John Locke, which essentially matches the definition by Alberto Benegas Lynch, Jr., who said that liberalism is the unrestricted respect for the life project of others based on the principle of non-aggression and in defense of the right to life, liberty, and property.
我通常使用阿尔贝托·贝内加斯·林奇（Alberto Benegas Lynch）给出的自由主义定义[外语00:09:37]，这与约翰·洛克的定义非常一致，后者本质上符合小阿尔贝托·贝内加斯·林奇（Alberto Benegas Lynch, Jr.）的定义，他说自由主义是基于互不侵犯原则、捍卫生命权、自由权和财产权的对他人生命计划的无限制尊重。
So I frame all of the discussions within those terms.
因此，我将所有讨论都纳入这些条款之内。
And the fact is that when you get to that notion, I would dare say that you become an anarcho-capitalist de facto.
事实是，当你有了这个想法时，我敢说你实际上成为了一个无政府资本主义者。
And what that describes, it is an idea which represents my ideal world.
这所描述的，是一个代表我理想世界的想法。
I mean, that is the ideal world.
我的意思是，那是理想的世界。
10:23 Now, real life poses a whole lot of restraints, and some of those you can lift, and those restrictions and others you can’t.
现在，现实生活带来了很多限制，有些是你可以解除的，有些是你不能解除的。
So in real life, I am a minarchist.
所以在现实生活中，我是一个小政府主义者。
I advocate for minimizing state size.
我主张最小化国家规模。
I try to remove as many regulations as possible.
我尝试取消尽可能多的规定。
In fact, that is what I used to say during my campaign, and let’s say, that is what I’m now carrying out.
事实上，这是我在竞选期间曾经说过的，也是我现在正在执行的。
We have just carried out the largest structural reform in Argentine history.
我们刚刚进行了阿根廷历史上最大规模的结构改革。
It is a structural reform that is eight times larger than Menem’s, which had been the largest structural reform in history.
这是一项比梅内姆历史上规模最大的结构性改革规模大八倍的结构性改革。
And we did that with 15% of the representatives and 10% of the senators.
我们对 15% 的众议员和 10% 的参议员做到了这一点。
Furthermore, we have a deregulation ministry where basically every day we eliminate between one and five regulations.
此外，我们有一个放松管制的部门，基本上每天我们都会取消一到五项法规。
On the other hand, we have 3,200 additional structural reforms pending, to the point that the day we finish all these reforms, we will be the freest country on the planet, with the consequences they have in terms of well-being.
另一方面，我们还有 3,200 项额外的结构性改革悬而未决，以至于当我们完成所有这些改革的那一天，我们将成为地球上最自由的国家，其后果将是福祉。
Think about this, when Ireland started market reforms just over 40 years ago, it was the poorest country in Europe.
想想看，当爱尔兰四十多年前开始市场改革时，它是欧洲最贫穷的国家。
Today, its GDP per capita is 50% higher than that of the United States.
如今，其人均GDP比美国高出50%。
So I have a current situation, and what I am constantly looking for, whether from my academic works and my outreach notes and books, is the world we have today, that every day we are closer, that every day we gain more freedom because there are some very interesting things here.
所以我有一个目前的情况，无论是从我的学术著作还是我的外展笔记和书籍中，我不断寻找的是我们今天所拥有的世界，我们每天都更接近，每天我们获得更多自由，因为这里有一些非常有趣的事情。
First, I would like to quote Milton Friedman.
首先，我想引用米尔顿·弗里德曼的话。
There is a moment when they do an interview with Milton Friedman and they ask him about liberals, and then he says that there are three types of liberals.
有一次，他们采访米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman），问他关于自由主义者的问题，然后他说自由主义者分为三种类型。
There are the classical liberals where, for example, Adam Smith or Milton Friedman himself could fit.
有些古典自由主义者，例如亚当·斯密（Adam Smith）或米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）本人就可以适应。
Some say that Hayek could fit into that category.
有人说哈耶克可能属于这一类。
For me, Hayek is a minarchist.
对我来说，哈耶克是一个小政府主义者。
12:38 Then you have the minarchists where you could clearly find in that place Mises, Hayek.
然后你可以在米塞斯、哈耶克那里清楚地找到小政府主义者。
One could find in philosophical terms Nozick and basically Ayn Rand.
人们可以从哲学术语中找到诺齐克，基本上还有艾因·兰德。
And at one point, Milton Friedman, based on his own son, he says, “But if you look closely, there are some who are anarchists.” Let’s say, probably from my point of view, the person who has been the greatest inspiration in my life is essentially Murray Newton Rothbard.
有一次，米尔顿·弗里德曼以他自己的儿子为原型，说道：“但如果你仔细观察，就会发现有些人是无政府主义者。”可以这么说，也许从我的角度来看，对我一生最大的启发的人本质上是默里·牛顿·罗斯巴德。
So therefore, there are two dimensions.
因此，有两个维度。
One is where I want to go, and the topic is where I stand.
一是我想去哪里，主题是我所站的地方。
So the most important thing is to try each day to advance further toward that ideal of anarcho-capitalism.
因此，最重要的是每天努力进一步实现无政府资本主义的理想。
In that sense, sometimes we face strong and harsh criticism regarding that ideal vision.
从这个意义上说，有时我们会面临针对这一理想愿景的强烈而严厉的批评。
I think that’s the nirvana fallacy.
我认为这就是涅槃谬误。
If you compare yourself against paradise, everything is horrible and miserable, but you don’t live in paradise.
如果你把自己与天堂相比，一切都是可怕和悲惨的，但你并不是生活在天堂里。
You live on earth.
你生活在地球上。
Basically, what you need to understand is something called the state conditions.
基本上，您需要了解的是所谓的状态条件。
Let’s suppose that you don’t like rectangular tables.
假设您不喜欢矩形桌子。
You prefer circular tables.
你更喜欢圆形桌子。
Now the reality is, I have only a few hours until I go and catch my flight and the table is rectangular.
现在的现实是，我只有几个小时的时间去赶飞机，而桌子是长方形的。
You like a circular table, a round one, but there isn’t one.
你喜欢圆桌，圆桌，但是没有。
What you have is a rectangular table.
你有一张长方形的桌子。
So either we do the interview here or we just can’t do it.
所以我们要么在这里进行采访，要么就不能进行。
So what do you do?
那么你做什么呢？
You adapt to the current conditions.
你适应当前的条件。
This is what there is now.
这就是现在的情况。
So then you have some restrictions that you can change and others that you cannot.
因此，您有一些可以更改的限制，而另一些则不能更改。
The idea is to modify all the ones that can be changed in the short term, and start working on those that can be modified in the medium or long-term.
想法是修改所有短期内可以修改的内容，并开始致力于那些可以在中长期修改的内容。
For example, if you really like round tables, perhaps the next interview we may do at a round table.
比如说，如果你真的很喜欢圆桌会议，也许下一次采访我们可能会在圆桌会议上进行。
We’re going to try and solve it, but today it’s something that we couldn’t possibly solve.
我们将尝试解决这个问题，但今天这是我们无法解决的问题。
So that’s basically the idea, right?
这基本上就是这个想法，对吧？
15:09 Let’s say it’s about understanding that some restrictions you can change, others you can, and there are institutional restrictions too.
假设这是关于了解一些限制是可以改变的，另一些限制是可以改变的，而且还有制度限制。
There are many anarcho-capitalists who are dedicated to criticizing, and incredibly, they do so with more violence towards liberals, and many of them actually criticize me, which truly make no sense because it is precisely the nirvana fallacy but the reality is that…
有很多无政府资本主义者致力于批评，令人难以置信的是，他们对自由主义者更加暴力，其中许多人实际上批评我，这确实没有意义，因为这正是涅槃谬论，但现实是……
Look, in Argentina, for example, the most popular sport is soccer.
例如，在阿根廷，最受欢迎的运动是足球。
When you go to watch an Argentina match, it is beautiful.
当你去看阿根廷队的比赛时，那真是太美了。
The stands are full, and they’re all painted with sky blue and white colors.
看台上挤满了人，全部漆成天蓝色和白色。
There is a lot of joy.
有很多快乐。
People sing songs that are very fun, that are very distinctive.
人们唱的歌曲非常有趣，非常有特色。
It’s very much part of Argentine folklore, so to speak.
可以说，这在很大程度上是阿根廷民间传说的一部分。
But you see that beautiful show is external.
但你看，美丽的表演是外在的。
That is to say it does not determine the outcome.
也就是说，它并不能决定结果。
You place the ball in the middle of the field, and no matter how much people shout, the ball doesn’t move.
你把球放在场地中央，无论人们怎么喊，球都不会移动。
The one who moves the ball and scores the goals is Messi.
移动球并进球的人是梅西。
16:31 So what do I mean?
那么我的意思是什么？
If you don’t get involved and don’t get into it, no, you don’t do anything.
如果你不参与、不投入，不，你什么也做不了。
So what do I know is that there are many liberals, libertarians and anarcho-capitalists who are really useless because all they do is criticize, let’s say, those of us who want to lead the world toward the ideas of freedom.
所以我所知道的是，有很多自由主义者、自由主义者和无政府资本主义者实际上毫无用处，因为他们所做的只是批评我们这些想要引导世界走向自由理念的人。
And what they don’t realize is that power is a zero-sum game, and if we don’t have it, then the left will have it.
他们没有意识到，权力是一场零和游戏，如果我们没有权力，那么左派就会拥有。
Therefore, if you level your harshest criticism at those in your own ranks, you end up being subservient to socialism probably.
因此，如果你对自己队伍中的人提出最严厉的批评，你最终可能会屈服于社会主义。
And also, for instance, you have cases of strong hypocrisy, let’s say.
而且，比如说，你也有严重虚伪的案例。
I have seen cases of agorists.
我见过主动论者的例子。
It’s the anarcho- capitalists who criticize Rothbard because he said that you have to get into politics, otherwise the socialists will advance.
无政府资本主义者批评罗斯巴德，因为他说你必须涉足政坛，否则社会主义者就会前进。
And it’s interesting because some of them, I have seen them criticizing, proposing agorism, and I remember one of them, one day the police showed up and honestly, he was peeing himself.
这很有趣，因为我看到他们中的一些人批评、提出无私主义，我记得其中一个，有一天警察出现了，老实说，他正在尿尿。
17:57 So it’s very easy to criticize, propose, and suggest, but if he was truly such an agonist, he should have been willing to endure going to jail.
所以批评、提出、建议是很容易的，但如果他真的是这样一个激动者，他应该愿意忍受坐牢。
However, when it was time to face the consequences of the idea he was promoting, he froze, wet his pants and ended up, let’s say, accepting all the restrictions because clearly it was better to be out of jail than in jail.
然而，当需要面对他所提倡的想法的后果时，他愣住了，尿湿了裤子，最终接受了所有限制，因为显然出狱比入狱更好。
But in doing so, he sold out his ideas.
但在这样做的过程中，他出卖了自己的想法。
So it seems to me that no, not taking into account the restrictions of the situation, only serves to be functional to socialism because all it does is strike against one’s own.
所以在我看来，不，不考虑情况的限制，只会对社会主义起作用，因为它所做的一切都是对自己的打击。
So you became president 11 months ago.
所以你11个月前就任总统了。
18:45 Can you, again, describe some of the actions you took?
您能否再次描述一下您采取的一些行动？
For example, you cut half the number of government ministries, layoffs, removed price controls.
例如，你将政府部门的数量削减一半、裁员、取消价格管制。
It’ll be interesting to lay out the first steps and what’s next.
列出第一步和下一步会很有趣。
If you allow me, I will first give you a description of the situation we received, and based on that, I will tell you each of the things we did.
如果您允许的话，我会先向您描述一下我们收到的情况，然后在此基础上，我会告诉您我们所做的每一件事。
19:04 When we first took office, basically what we found was that in the first week of December, inflation was rising at the rate of 1% per day, which means 3,700% annually.
当我们刚上任时，基本上我们发现，在12月的第一周，通货膨胀率每天以1%的速度上升，这意味着每年3,700%。
In the first half of December, it had accelerated to 7,500% annually.
12月上半月，年增长率加速至7,500%。
When you look at wholesale inflation in December of last year, it was 54%, which if annualized would equate to an inflation rate of 17,000% per year.
去年 12 月的批发通胀率为 54%，如果按年化计算，相当于每年 17,000% 的通胀率。
And in addition, Argentina for the previous 10 years had not been growing, with a drop in GDP per capita of approximately 15%.
此外，阿根廷过去10年一直没有增长，人均GDP下降了约15%。
And the reality was that nearly 50% were living in poverty.
而现实情况是，近 50% 的人生活在贫困之中。
20:16 Now, later I will get deeper into that discussion, and the reality is that we had a fiscal deficit, which amounted to 15% of GDP.
现在，稍后我将更深入地讨论这个问题，现实是我们有财政赤字，占 GDP 的 15%。
Five points were in the Treasury, 10 points were in the Central Bank, which was endogenous monetary issuance.
5个点在财政部，10个点在央行，这是内生的货币发行量。
And the reality is that we also had interest-bearing liabilities at the Central Bank, equivalent to four monetary bases maturing in one day, meaning we could have quintupled the amount of money in one day.
现实情况是，我们在中央银行也有计息负债，相当于一天内到期的四个货币基础，这意味着我们可以在一天内将货币数量增加五倍。
We had peso-denominated maturities, amounting to the equivalent of $90 billion.
我们有以比索计价的到期日，相当于 900 亿美元。
The Central Bank had negative net currency foreign reserves, minus $12 billion.
央行净货币外汇储备为负，减120亿美元。
We had commercial debts in the Central Bank equivalent to $50 billion.
我们在中央银行的商业债务相当于 500 亿美元。
There were company dividends held back amounting to $10 billion.
公司被扣留的股息达 100 亿美元。
Therefore, if we had instantly opened up…
因此，如果我们立即开放……
You see, I say we are liberal libertarians.
你看，我说我们是自由主义者。
We are not liberal fools.
我们不是自由派傻瓜。
That’s what some anarchist liberals suggested, meaning that we basically open everything on the first day.
这是一些无政府主义自由主义者的建议，这意味着我们基本上在第一天就开放一切。
21:40 So in that context, of course, if we had done that, we would’ve encountered hyperinflation.
因此，在这种情况下，当然，如果我们这样做，我们就会遇到恶性通货膨胀。
Therefore, that would have led to the number of poor people being around 95% and probably, and by December, the Peronist party would have organized supermarket’s lootings, and would’ve done all sorts of things, and would’ve probably been ousted.
因此，这会导致贫困人口数量达到95%左右，到12月，庇隆主义政党就会组织超市抢劫，做出各种各样的事情，很可能就会被赶下台。
And by the first part of the year, the Peronists would’ve gone back to office.
到今年上半年，庇隆主义者就会重新上台。
So to us, it was crucial to end fiscal deficit.
因此对我们来说，结束财政赤字至关重要。
22:19 One of the things we promised during the campaign had been to reduce the number of ministries, and indeed we reduced to less than half the number of ministries because we went to nine ministries, today we have eight.
我们在竞选期间承诺的一件事是减少部委的数量，事实上，我们将部委的数量减少到了一半以下，因为我们去了九个部委，今天我们有八个。
We have also laid off a large number of civil employees.
我们还裁掉了大量文职人员。
Today, I can say that we’ve already dismissed about 50,000 of them, and we practically don’t renew any contracts unless the positions are absolutely necessary.
今天，我可以说我们已经解雇了大约 5 万名员工，而且除非绝对必要，否则我们实际上不会续签任何合同。
At the same time, we have stopped public works and we have eliminated discretionary transfers to the provinces.
与此同时，我们停止了公共工程，并取消了向各省的随意转移。
We have also diluted public sector wages.
我们还稀释了公共部门的工资。
Also, we have eliminated economic subsidies by restoring utility rates to the right levels.
此外，我们还通过将公用事业费率恢复到适当水平来取消经济补贴。
And in that, let’s say, in this context, we achieved fiscal balance as far as the Treasury is concerned.
在这种情况下，就财政部而言，我们实现了财政平衡。
This is very important because in the last 123 years, Argentina had a deficit for 113 of them, and in the 10 years it did not have a deficit because it was not paying the debt.
这非常重要，因为在过去的123年里，阿根廷有113年出现赤字，而在这10年里，由于没有偿还债务，阿根廷没有出现赤字。
So that was absolutely false, and they told us it would be impossible to do that.
所以这绝对是错误的，他们告诉我们这是不可能的。
23:47 We had planned to do so within a year, and they said it wasn’t possible to adjust by more than one percentage point, and we achieved fiscal balance in the month of January.
我们原计划一年内做到这一点，他们说调整不可能超过一个百分点，我们一月份就实现了财政平衡。
That is the first month of administration.
这是施政的第一个月。
At the same time, we also cut social plans linked to intermediation.
与此同时，我们还削减了与中介相关的社会计划。
This is very important because we knew we were going to make a very tough adjustment, and we knew that this was going to have a court in social terms, and we knew that we had to offer support during the first month, I mean, the first quarter and second quarter in office.
这非常重要，因为我们知道我们将做出非常艰难的调整，我们知道这将在社会方面有一个法庭，我们知道我们必须在第一个月，我的意思是，第一季度和第二季度提供支持。
One of the things we did was to eliminate what are known as poverty managers.
我们所做的事情之一就是消除所谓的贫困管理者。
That is intermediaries.
那就是中介。
Basically, people have a guard through which they receive assistance, but it happens that they had to provide a counter service, and that counter service was verified by a group called the piqueteros.
基本上，人们有一个警卫来接受帮助，但碰巧他们必须提供柜台服务，而柜台服务是由一个名为 piqueteros 的组织验证的。
24:54 So in that context, when they were going to sign, the counter service took away half of the money.
所以在这种情况下，当他们要签字时，柜台服务人员拿走了一半的钱。
So by removing that payoff, they stopped extorting them, stopped stealing their money, and with the same amount of money, they received double the resources.
因此，通过消除这种回报，他们就不再勒索他们，不再偷他们的钱，并且用相同数量的钱，他们获得了双倍的资源。
And of course, we also provided an additional boost.
当然，我们还提供了额外的推动力。
So let’s say that this is related to the five adjustment points in the Treasury.
那么我们可以说，这与财政部的五个调整点有关。
Now, what happens, as we began to achieve fiscal balance and no longer needed to issue money to finance ourselves, and as we also met interest payments and some capital repayments, one of the things that happened is that the debt market began to be recreated.
现在，随着我们开始实现财政平衡，不再需要发行货币来为自己融资，并且我们也满足了利息支付和一些资本偿还的要求，发生的事情之一就是债务市场开始重建。
So we were able to take debt out of the Central Bank and transfer it to the Treasury where it should have always been, and that meant an adjustment of approximately 10% of GDP.
因此，我们能够从中央银行取出债务，并将其转移到财政部本来应该在的地方，这意味着GDP的大约10%的调整。
Everyone said this would be impossible and couldn’t be fixed.
大家都说这是不可能的，也无法解决。
25:58 Essentially, what we did was implement a fiscal adjustment at the Central Bank, amounting to 10% of GDP.
本质上，我们所做的是中央银行实施财政调整，调整幅度为GDP的10%。
So if you ask me, it’s clear that we have not only made the biggest fiscal adjustment in the history of humanity, because we made a fiscal adjustment of 15 points of the GDP, but also most of that went back to the people as less seigniorage, as a lower inflation rate.
因此，如果你问我，很明显，我们不仅进行了人类历史上最大规模的财政调整，因为我们进行了占GDP 15个百分点的财政调整，而且其中大部分还以更少的铸币税和更低的通货膨胀率回馈给了人民。
It’s true that we temporarily raised the country tax, but we lowered it in September, and now in December, we’re going to eliminate it.
确实，我们暂时提高了国税，但我们在 9 月份降低了国税，现在 12 月份我们将取消它。
Today, for example, we also announced that in December we are eliminating import taxes.
例如，今天我们还宣布 12 月份取消进口税。
In fact, in that regard, what you have is that we return to the people 13 and a half points of GDP because the real tax burden is the size of the state.
事实上，在这方面，我们所拥有的是我们向人民返还13个半的GDP，因为真正的税收负担是国家的规模。
So while back in December we were discussing hyperinflation, today we are discussing 30-year loans.
早在 12 月我们就在讨论恶性通货膨胀，而今天我们在讨论 30 年期贷款。
27:03 In other words, all those resources that the national government used to take are now back in the private sector.
换句话说，国家政府过去占用的所有资源现在都回到了私营部门。
And that’s what has allowed it to be very dynamic.
这就是让它变得非常有活力的原因。
And this has two very strong impacts.
这有两个非常强烈的影响。
The first one is that if you look at wholesale inflation, it went down from 54% to 2%.
第一个是，如果你看一下批发通胀，你会发现它从 54% 下降到 2%。
So it went down by 27 times.
所以它下跌了27倍。
It was divided into 27.
被分成了27份。
So we had inflation at the rate of 17,000% annually, and it’s now close to about 28% a year, but it’s not only that.
我们的通货膨胀率为每年 17,000%，现在接近每年 28% 左右，但不仅如此。
You could consider consumer inflation, the latest consumer inflation rate was 2.7%.
你可以考虑消费者通胀，最新的消费者通胀率为2.7%。
Now, it happens that we essentially, due to a matter that is related to the Central Bank’s balance sheets and also due to the debt stocks, we still have controls in place and we are eliminating restrictions, day by day.
现在，由于与央行资产负债表相关的问题以及债务存量，我们本质上仍然有控制措施，并且我们正在逐日消除限制。
Now, the interesting thing is that we have a 2% monthly devaluation standard, and there’s international inflation of course, which means that you then have to subtract two and a half points from the inflation observed by the consumer.
现在，有趣的是，我们有一个每月2%的贬值标准，当然还有国际通货膨胀，这意味着你必须从消费者观察到的通货膨胀中减去两个半点。
28:20 This indicates that inflation in Argentina, the true inflation, not the induced one, but the actual monetary inflation is 0.2% per month.
这表明阿根廷的通货膨胀是真正的通货膨胀，不是诱发的通货膨胀，而是实际货币通货膨胀率为每月0.2%。
At 0.2% per month, this equates to 2.4% annually.
按每月 0.2% 计算，相当于每年 2.4%。
What I’m saying is, the original discussion was about whether inflation could reach 17,000%.
我想说的是，最初的讨论是通胀能否达到17000%。
Now we are bringing inflation down to levels of 2.5% annually, and that is amazing.
现在，我们每年将通货膨胀率降至 2.5%，这真是太棒了。
And we achieved this by considering a number of factors.
我们通过考虑多种因素来实现这一目标。
The first one is that we did not experience a previous hyperinflation, which would’ve simplified the process of implementing a stabilization program.
第一个是我们之前没有经历过恶性通货膨胀，这会简化实施稳定计划的过程。
Typically, when hyperinflation occurs, monetary assets are diluted, leading to a natural restoration of demand.
通常，当发生恶性通货膨胀时，货币资产会被稀释，从而导致需求的自然恢复。
And besides, we did not resort to any expropriation.
此外，我们没有采取任何征用措施。
For example, before the Convertibility plan, which was the most successful program in Argentina’s history, Argentina experienced two instances of hyperinflation.
例如，在阿根廷历史上最成功的可兑换计划之前，阿根廷经历了两次恶性通货膨胀。
During Alfonsin’s administration, inflation reached 5,000%, and under Menem was 1,200%.
阿方辛执政期间，通货膨胀率达到 5,000%，梅内姆执政期间为 1,200%。
29:34 Additionally, there was the BONEX plan, under which debt was exchanged on a compulsory basis.
此外，还有 BONEX 计划，根据该计划，债务交换是强制性的。
In other words, what we did instead was clean up the Central Bank balance sheet.
换句话说，我们所做的只是清理央行资产负债表。
So with that, we cleaned up the Central Bank’s balance sheet.
这样，我们就清理了央行的资产负债表。
We cleared a loss of $45 billion, all voluntarily.
我们自愿消除了 450 亿美元的损失。
And the most amazing thing is that we did it in just six months, and at the same time, we have not controlled prices.
而最令人惊奇的是，我们仅仅用了六个月的时间就做到了，同时，我们没有控制价格。
30:00 And at the same time, we have not controlled prices nor have we fixed the exchange rate.
与此同时，我们没有控制价格，也没有固定汇率。
And this is very important.
这非常重要。
All previous stabilization programs in an effort to show quick results used to do this.
之前所有的稳定计划都是为了快速显示结果而采用的。
What they would do is, before announcing the plan, they would adjust the rates.
他们要做的是，在宣布计划之前，他们会调整费率。
And once the rates were adjusted, they would launch the plan.
一旦利率调整，他们就会启动该计划。
But in our case, we couldn’t afford that luxury, so we had to implement it on the go.
但就我们而言，我们负担不起这种奢侈，所以我们必须随时随地实施它。
And also over the past few months, that is to say companies brought in rates that covered only about 10%, whereas today they cover 80% so you get the picture.
而且在过去的几个月里，也就是说，公司的费率只覆盖了 10% 左右，而今天他们覆盖了 80%，所以你就明白了。
Just imagine the adjustment we are making.
想象一下我们正在做的调整。
And in that sense, it is also incredible what we have achieved because if we were to work with the inflation we have in our country today, considering the exchange rate situation, the figures are even better than during the convertibility program, which was the most successful economic program in Argentina’s history.
从这个意义上说，我们所取得的成就也是令人难以置信的，因为如果我们考虑到我国今天的通货膨胀，考虑到汇率情况，这些数字甚至比可兑换计划期间更好，这是阿根廷历史上最成功的经济计划。
31:09 And in fact, there is an article called Passing the Buck, which is by Gerardo della Paolera, Bózzoli, and Irigoin that demonstrates that Menem’s first government was the best government in history.
事实上，赫拉尔多·德拉·保莱拉（Gerardo della Paolera）、博佐利（Bózzoli）和伊里戈因（Irigoin）撰写的一篇名为“推卸责任”的文章表明，梅内姆的第一届政府是历史上最好的政府。
And basically, it argues two things in the success of the stabilization of the convertibility program.
基本上，它认为稳定可兑换计划的成功有两点。
So if you take a closer look, when you examine it carefully, when you account for all these factors, our disinflation process is actually much more genuine.
因此，如果你仔细观察，当你仔细检查时，当你考虑到所有这些因素时，我们的通货紧缩过程实际上更加真实。
And not only that, it’s also much deeper.
不仅如此，它还更深层次。
We are restored freedoms to Argentinians while simultaneously implementing a structural reform eight times larger.
我们恢复了阿根廷人的自由，同时实施了八倍规模的结构改革。
And we accomplished this with only with 15% of the representatives, 10% of the senators, and within the first six months of government.
我们仅用 15% 的众议员、10% 的参议员，并且在政府成立的头六个月内就实现了这一目标。
In other words, our deregulation agenda continues daily and we still have 3,200 structural reforms pending.
换句话说，我们的放松管制议程每天都在继续，但仍有 3,200 项结构性改革悬而未决。
This will ultimately make Argentina the freest country in the world.
这最终将使阿根廷成为世界上最自由的国家。
32:18 Moreover, to have a sense of magnitude, the reforms that we already have made with the executive order 7023, and with the basis law, we have actually jumped 90 places in terms of economic freedom.
此外，从规模上看，我们已经通过7023号行政命令和基本法进行的改革，在经济自由度方面实际上已经跃升了90位。
What this means is that today, Argentina has institutions similar to those of Germany, France, Italy, and we obviously want this to continue.
这意味着今天，阿根廷拥有与德国、法国、意大利类似的机构，我们显然希望这种情况继续下去。
And let’s say we are going to surpass no doubt the levels of economic freedom that Ireland reached in its best moment.
假设我们无疑将超越爱尔兰在其最好时期所达到的经济自由水平。
And not only that, we’re going to exceed the levels of economic freedom of Australia, New Zealand, and Switzerland.
不仅如此，我们还将超越澳大利亚、新西兰和瑞士的经济自由水平。
We are undoubtedly going to be the freest country in the world.
毫无疑问，我们将成为世界上最自由的国家。
32:59 And this means that thanks to what we’ve done today, we are on a path that allows us to multiply our per capita GDP by 2.5 times when you apply the relevant correction.
这意味着，由于我们今天所做的事情，在应用相关修正后，我们的人均 GDP 可以增加 2.5 倍。
And this of course is something very interesting because it implies a huge increase in well-being.
这当然是一件非常有趣的事情，因为它意味着幸福感的大幅提高。
And furthermore, today the Argentinian economy is already strongly and amazingly recovering.
此外，今天阿根廷经济已经强劲且令人惊讶地复苏。
And we can say analysts’ hypotheses were suggesting that next year we will be growing between five and 6%.
我们可以说，分析师的假设表明明年我们的增长率将在 5% 到 6% 之间。
Today, JP Morgan has now corrected or let’s say revised the projections upwards.
今天，摩根大通已经修正了或者可以说向上修正了预测。
And besides, when we normalized the price situation, the true poverty rate came up and it was 57% in January.
此外，当我们使物价状况正常化时，真实贫困率出现上升，1 月份为 57%。
Today it is at 46%, meaning we lowered poverty by 11 percentage points.
如今这一数字为 46%，这意味着我们将贫困率降低了 11 个百分点。
Let’s say, I mean, it seems truly like a miracle.
我的意思是，这看起来确实是一个奇迹。
And not only that, but actually not a single job was lost in the process.
不仅如此，实际上在此过程中没有失去任何工作。
34:04 When it comes to all of this inflation reduction process, people said that our economy and economic activity would collapse.
当谈到所有这些通胀降低过程时，人们说我们的经济和经济活动将会崩溃。
And actually when you look at the de-seasonalized data, you see that in August there was a recovery that took us back to December levels, to December levels.
事实上，当你查看去季节性数据时，你会发现 8 月份出现了复苏，使我们回到了 12 月份的水平。
That means that in the year, we made the largest fiscal adjustment in the history of humanity.
这意味着这一年我们进行了人类历史上最大规模的财政调整。
We will end up with less inflation, fewer poor people, better real wages, and additionally, a GDP higher than what we started with.
我们最终将得到更低的通货膨胀、更少的穷人、更好的实际工资，此外，GDP 也将高于我们开始时的水平。
34:39 And if you look at it in dollars, I can assure you that the numbers are phenomenal because basically today the dollar is below the levels we had when we took office.
如果你以美元来衡量，我可以向你保证，这个数字是惊人的，因为基本上今天的美元汇率低于我们上任时的水平。
So the reality is that in all of this, when you take my popularity levels and the government’s acceptance levels, today they are above the moment.
所以现实是，在所有这一切中，当你考虑我的受欢迎程度和政府的接受程度时，今天它们已经超越了当下。
We assumed office if you know that the moment of maximum popularity is when you take office.
如果你知道最受欢迎的时刻就是你上任的时候，我们就上任了。
Therefore this means that far from resting on our laurels with this, we’re going for more reforms.
因此，这意味着我们不会固步自封，而是要进行更多改革。
We’re going to deepen the reforms.
我们要深化改革。
And I tell you, we won’t stop until Argentina is the freest country in the world.
我告诉你，我们不会停止，直到阿根廷成为世界上最自由的国家。
35:26 Furthermore, a recent work by an Argentinian economist named Juan Pablo Nicolini was presented at the central bank’s monetary meetings and he works at the Federal Reserve.
此外，阿根廷经济学家胡安·巴勃罗·尼科利尼（Juan Pablo Nicolini）最近在央行货币会议上发表了一篇论文，他在美联储工作。
And it’s interesting because he shows that only on the basis of what we have done in fiscal matters it ensures that in the span of 10 years we can double the GDP per capita, meaning that Argentina could grow at rates of 7% annually, which is very much, very much, and that has strong consequences in terms of improving quality of life, reducing poverty, reducing indigence.
有趣的是，他表明，只有基于我们在财政问题上所做的工作，才能确保在 10 年内我们能够将人均 GDP 翻一番，这意味着阿根廷每年可以实现 7% 的增长率，这是非常非常大的，这对提高生活质量、减少贫困、减少贫困方面具有重大影响。
Therefore, if during the worst moment our image didn’t suffer and we stayed strong in our ideas, now that everything is working much better, why should we change?
因此，如果在最糟糕的时刻我们的形象没有受到影响，并且我们的想法依然坚定，那么现在一切都好多了，我们为什么要改变呢？
36:22 On the contrary, we are ready to redouble the bet, to redouble our efforts because we’ve done things that no one else has done.
相反，我们准备加倍赌注，加倍努力，因为我们做了别人没有做过的事情。
I will give you an example.
我给你举个例子。
There’s something that seems trivial, but there’s what’s called the single paper ballot.
有些事情看似微不足道，但有一种叫做单一纸质选票的东西。
Argentina used to vote with huge ballots, which were above all very costly.
阿根廷过去常常用大量选票进行投票，这首先是非常昂贵的。
And that reform, it never…
而这项改革，从来没有……
Let’s say it wasn’t done because it always harmed the ruling party.
假设它没有被完成，因为它总是损害执政党。
So everyone talked about going to the single paper ballot, but no one did it when they were in power.
所以每个人都在谈论进行单一纸质选票，但当他们执政时没有人这样做。
They didn’t want to implement it because they preferred to commit fraud or use some kind of trickery to avoid applying that rule that makes the election more competitive.
他们不想实施它，因为他们更愿意进行欺诈或使用某种欺骗手段来避免应用该规则，从而使选举更具竞争性。
Well, what’s interesting, we sent that law and it was approved.
嗯，有趣的是，我们发送了该法律并获得了批准。
37:18 What’s more?
还有什么？
Now we are finishing with the open, simultaneous and mandatory primaries because it was a mechanism by which politics was also stealing.
现在我们即将完成公开、同步和强制性的初选，因为这也是政治偷窃的一种机制。
We are eliminating the financing of political parties.
我们正在消除对政党的资助。
If you look, we have reduced the fiscal pressure by 15 points to the Argentinians.
如果你看一下，我们已经将阿根廷人的财政压力减轻了 15 个百分点。
We are restoring freedoms with a deep set of structural and regulatory reforms that is I think that any sensible liberal could perceive.
我们正在通过一系列深入的结构和监管改革来恢复自由，我认为任何明智的自由主义者都能意识到这一点。
We are already delivering a wonderful government.
我们已经打造了一个出色的政府。
In fact, it’s the best government in the history of Argentina.
事实上，这是阿根廷历史上最好的政府。
If the best had been that of Menem, we’ve already outpaced him.
如果梅内姆是最好的，我们已经超过了他。
Maybe you can explain to me the metrics of poverty and unemployment.
也许你可以向我解释一下贫困和失业的指标。
38:05 As you said, unemployment went down, real unemployment went down, real poverty went down.
正如你所说，失业率下降了，实际失业率下降了，实际贫困率下降了。
But even that aside, what have been the most painful impacts of these radical reforms and how many of them are required in the short term to have a big positive impact in the long term?
但即便如此，这些激进改革最痛苦的影响是什么？短期内需要多少改革才能在长期产生巨大的积极影响？
Let’s take it step by step, all right?
让我们一步一步来，好吗？
38:31 That is in fact, we started to do things right, therefore we did not create poverty.
事实上，我们开始做正确的事情，因此我们没有制造贫困。
The poverty was an inherited poverty.
贫困是一种遗传性的贫困。
The point is that what we did was to reveal it.
关键是我们所做的就是揭露它。
38:50 I’ll try to explain it with an example that I think clarifies what’s happening in Argentina.
我将尝试用一个例子来解释它，我认为这个例子可以澄清阿根廷正在发生的事情。
Argentina was an economy that had a total price controls.
阿根廷是一个实行全面价格管制的经济体。
It had a fiscal deficit which was financed through money printing.
它的财政赤字是通过印钞来融资的。
Just for you to give you an idea, in the last year, Argentina financed 13 points of the gross domestic product with money printing.
仅供大家参考，去年阿根廷通过印钞资助了国内生产总值的13个百分点。
In other words, a real disaster.
换句话说，一场真正的灾难。
So that situation provoked this artificially demand and puts pressure on prices.
因此，这种情况人为地刺激了需求，并对价格造成压力。
The issue is that price controls are applied additionally over the prices that they enter the price index with which inflation was…
问题是，价格管制还适用于进入通货膨胀率的价格指数的价格……
I’m not saying they were lying about it.
我并不是说他们在这件事上撒谎。
It was distorted.
它被扭曲了。
39:43 And since Argentina measures poverty and indigence by income line, then what happens?
既然阿根廷通过收入线来衡量贫困和赤贫，那么会发生什么呢？
That distorted the true levels of poverty, of course.
当然，这扭曲了贫困的真实水平。
But that’s not the only effect.
但这并不是唯一的影响。
I mean, let’s say the real poverty levels were higher, quite a bit higher than those shown by the previous government, which showed them at 41% and also did so on a six-monthly basis.
我的意思是，假设实际贫困率更高，比上届政府显示的贫困率高出很多，上届政府显示的贫困率为 41%，而且每六个月都是如此。
So if you, let’s say, have a growing trend, they are actually leaving you a bomb and you don’t see it because let’s say basically the indicator was measured with a delayed form.
因此，如果你有一个增长的趋势，他们实际上给你留下了一颗炸弹，而你看不到它，因为假设基本上该指标是用延迟形式测量的。
But not only that, imagine that you are also given…
但不仅如此，想象一下你也被赋予了……
You are in the middle of an island alone and they give you $1 million.
你独自一人在一座小岛的中央，他们给你 100 万美元。
What can you do with that?
你能用它做什么？
You cannot do anything because you cannot buy anything.
你什么也做不了，因为你买不到任何东西。
It is the same as if someone tells you that the price of glasses is $10, but when you want to buy it, it’s not available.
这就好比有人告诉你一副眼镜的价格是10美元，但是当你想买的时候却买不到。
40:53 Actually, there’s a joke told by an Argentinian professor named Juan Carlos de Pablo, who says that a man goes to a bazaar and asks for a vase.
事实上，一位名叫胡安·卡洛斯·德·巴勃罗的阿根廷教授讲过一个笑话，他说一个男人去集市要一个花瓶。
Then he says to him, “Well, I want that vase.
然后他对他说：“好吧，我想要那个花瓶。
How much would you charge me?” Then he says, “$5,000.”
你要收我多少钱？”然后他说：“5,000 美元。”
41:10 “Oh, okay, $5,000.
“哦，好的，5000 美元。
But why $5,000 if across the street it’s 1,000?” He says, “Well, go buy it across the street for 1,000.”
但如果街对面有 1,000 美元，为什么还要花 5,000 美元呢？”他说：“好吧，去街对面买，花 1000 美元。”
41:19 “Ah, there’s none for 1,000.”
“啊，1000块就没有了。”
41:21 “Well then, here when there’s more, it’ll also cost 1,000.” In other words, prices at which they are available.
“那么，这里多了，也就一千块了。”换句话说，就是它们的可用价格。
So what happens?
那么会发生什么呢？
When you are faced with that situation, the supermarket shelves were empty.
当你面对这种情况时，超市的货架上空空如也。
So what was the point of having a price at which you couldn’t buy anything?
那么，设定一个你买不到任何东西的价格有什么意义呢？
You left those prices.
你留下了这些价格。
The shelves were empty.
货架上空空如也。
So the statistics showed that you were much better, but the reality is you couldn’t buy anything.
所以统计数据显示你好多了，但现实是你买不到任何东西。
You couldn’t make it happen.
你不可能让它发生。
41:48 So if you left the situation as it was, people were going to starve because they couldn’t buy anything.
因此，如果你保持现状，人们就会挨饿，因为他们买不到任何东西。
Yes, they had a certain amount of money that could supposedly buy certain goods, but those goods were not available.
是的，他们有一定数量的钱，据说可以购买某些商品，但这些商品却买不到。
What is the only thing you can do to save people?
为了救人，你唯一能做的是什么？
Make the prices transparent and allow products to reappear.
使价格透明，让产品重新出现。
Well, when you make the prices transparent, you also make transparent the cost of the basic food basket and the total basic basket, meaning the poverty line…
好吧，当你使价格透明时，你也使基本食品篮子和总基本篮子的成本透明化，这意味着贫困线......
Sorry, the indigence line and the poverty line respectively.
抱歉，分别是贫困线和贫困线。
And when you do that, clearly you will see a jump in poverty.
当你这样做时，显然你会看到贫困人口急剧增加。
That brought poverty up to 57%.
这使得贫困率上升至 57%。
42:28 Now, Argentina found its activity floor in the month of April.
现在，阿根廷在四月份找到了自己的活动底线。
From that moment, Argentina began to invent a cyclical recovery.
从那时起，阿根廷开始发明周期性复苏。
Real wages have been growing every month above inflation.
实际工资每月的增长都高于通货膨胀。
Therefore, nominal wages are beating inflation.
因此，名义工资跑赢了通货膨胀。
In fact, we are already at level similar to those we had in November.
事实上，我们已经处于与 11 月份相似的水平。
The same goes for pensions.
养老金也是如此。
42:53 Moreover, also, let’s say there is a rebound in activity due to the recovery of the stock cycle.
此外，假设由于股票周期的复苏，活动出现反弹。
Therefore, this is also contributing to more and better-paid jobs.
因此，这也有助于创造更多、报酬更高的工作。
In fact, this is so strong and evident that the wages growing the most are in the informal sector.
事实上，这种现象是如此强烈和明显，以至于非正规部门的工资增长最快。
This means that poverty and extreme poverty are decreasing much faster than we imagined.
这意味着贫困和极端贫困的减少速度比我们想象的要快得多。
But not only that, by eliminating inflation, you remove the inflationary tax, but the real burden is the fiscal deficit, which was 15 points of the GDP.
但不仅如此，通过消除通货膨胀，你消除了通货膨胀税，但真正的负担是财政赤字，占GDP的15个百分点。
43:27 Okay, we temporarily raised the country tax, now we lower it, but we return that to the Argentinians.
好吧，我们暂时提高了国家税，现在我们降低了它，但我们将其返还给阿根廷人。
We gave back 15 points of the GDP.
我们回馈了GDP的15个百分点。
Not only that, but also when you eliminate inflation, you remove the distortion of relative prices.
不仅如此，当你消除通货膨胀时，你也消除了相对价格的扭曲。
Therefore, the allocation of resources is much better.
因此，资源配置要好得多。
Not only that, but also with the strong fiscal adjustment we made, we have reduced the country risk from 3000 basis points to 770.
不仅如此，通过我们强有力的财政调整，我们将国家风险从3000个基点降低到770个基点。
Today, Fitch raised Argentina’s rating to CCC.
今天，惠誉将阿根廷的评级上调至 CCC。
So what do I mean?
那么我的意思是什么？
That translates into a lower country risk and interest rates.
这意味着较低的国家风险和利率。
And that generates an increase in investment, also generates an increase in consumption.
这会导致投资增加，也会导致消费增加。
44:13 In other words, the Argentinian economy is currently in an absolutely flourishing moment.
换句话说，阿根廷经济目前正处于绝对繁荣的时刻。
And how is that sustained in the long term?
从长远来看，这种情况如何持续？
With structural reforms which we implement daily, deregulating the economy and introducing new laws that free Argentinians from the many oppressive measures that have burdened it over the past 100 years.
通过我们每天实施的结构性改革，放松经济管制并引入新法律，将阿根廷人从过去 100 年来一直困扰其的许多压迫性措施中解放出来。
You’ve spoken about the caste, the corrupt political establishment.
你谈到了种姓制度和腐败的政治机构。
44:37 So there’s a lot of powerful people and groups that are against your ideas.
所以有很多有权势的人和团体反对你的想法。
What does it take to fight when so much power is against you?
当如此多的力量与你作对时，你需要什么来战斗？
Look, we have fought against corruption like never before in Argentina.
看，我们在阿根廷以前所未有的方式打击腐败。
44:54 In fact, when we took office for example, there were about 900 roadblocks per year.
事实上，以我们上任时为例，每年都会遇到大约 900 个障碍。
That is people who made a habit of blocking the streets.
那些人养成了堵塞街道的习惯。
They prevented free movement.
他们阻止了自由行动。
And besides, they were given social plans and they were given a lot of money.
此外，他们还获得了社会计划，并获得了大量资金。
If you remember when I started by explaining the cuts, one of the things I said was that we removed the middlemen of poverty.
如果你还记得当我开始解释削减时，我所说的其中一件事就是我们消除了贫困的中间人。
In other words, the managers of poverty, those who lived by stealing from the poor.
换句话说，就是贫困的管理者，那些靠偷窃穷人为生的人。
Well, that is a huge source of corruption.
嗯，这是腐败的一个巨大根源。
45:35 In fact, when we did that, two days later, one of the most renowned and influential Piqueteros called for a demonstration.
事实上，当我们这么做的时候，两天后，一位最著名、最有影响力的皮克特罗斯呼吁举行示威。
He claimed that 50,000 people would attend because he was actually expecting 100,000.
他声称会有 50,000 人参加，因为他实际上预计会有 100,000 人。
So he wanted to showcase it as a success.
所以他想展示它的成功。
And so then let’s say with the decision made in human capital to cut their funding, the anti-blockade protocol was also enacted, where those who blocked the streets wouldn’t receive welfare benefits.
那么，假设人力资本决定削减资金，反封锁协议也随之颁布，那些封锁街道的人将不会获得福利。
46:13 And those who broke the law would go to jail.
那些触犯法律的人将会入狱。
All of that.
所有这些。
And also we were informing this through transportation channels.
我们也通过运输渠道告知了这一点。
Well, in that march, they expected to have 100,000 people there.
嗯，在那次游行中，他们预计那里会有 10 万人。
And actually it turned out to be 3,000 people.
事实上，有 3000 人。
And from that point on, they didn’t block the streets anymore.
从那时起，他们就不再封锁街道了。
46:38 We also evidently put an end to that corruption.
我们显然也杜绝了这种腐败。
One of the things that also generated a lot of corruption was public works.
公共工程也是造成大量腐败的原因之一。
Another thing that led to significant acts of corruption were the discretionary transfers to provinces.
导致重大腐败行为的另一件事是向各省的随意转移。
In general, these transfers were made to the provinces with accounting as obscure as possible.
一般来说，这些转移是通过会计尽可能模糊的省份进行的。
So the national government, in collusion with the governors let’s say, the money ended up being used for other things.
因此，中央政府与州长勾结，比如说，这笔钱最终被用于其他用途。
Not only that, with which we have already done many things.
不仅如此，我们已经用它做了很多事情。
47:16 Furthermore, the ministry of human capital is always filing complaints in court.
此外，人力资本部总是向法庭提出申诉。
Not in the media, in court.
不是在媒体上，而是在法庭上。
Acts of corruption like never before in Argentine history.
阿根廷历史上前所未有的腐败行为。
Not only that, but also in terms of condemning corruption.
不仅如此，在谴责腐败方面也是如此。
That is, we have done, for example, two days ago, it was condemned, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner got a sentence for corruption, I mean, due to corruption.
也就是说，我们所做的，例如，两天前，它受到谴责，克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·基什内尔因腐败而被判刑，我的意思是，由于腐败。
And the next day, that is yesterday, we took away their privileged pensions.
第二天，也就是昨天，我们拿走了他们的特权养老金。
47:52 At the same time, we are, for example, we have discovered that Kirchnerism used disability pensions for acts of corruption.
与此同时，例如，我们发现基什内尔主义利用残疾养老金进行腐败行为。
For example, there is a city that has more disability pensions than people.
例如，有一个城市的伤残抚恤金比人还多。
In other words, to give you an idea of the things being done in Argentina.
换句话说，让您了解阿根廷正在做的事情。
48:12 And also in Argentina, we have restored freedom to the judiciary.
同样在阿根廷，我们恢复了司法自由。
We do not pressure the judiciary.
我们不会向司法部门施加压力。
And this is so true that during my government, not only was Cristina Fernández de Kirchner convicted, but also the two terrorist attacks carried out by Iran were condemned.
确实如此，在我执政期间，不仅克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·德基什内尔被定罪，而且伊朗实施的两次恐怖袭击也受到谴责。
So if there is a government that is truly fighting against corruption, it is us.
因此，如果有一个政府真正在打击腐败，那就是我们。
Not only that, but also with each deregulation, it is a privilege that we take away either from a politician, a prebendary company, or a power group.
不仅如此，随着每一次放松管制，我们都会从政客、前任公司或权力集团手中夺走一种特权。
That is also very powerful.
那也是非常强大的。
No one in Argentina has ever fought against corruption the way we have.
阿根廷没有人像我们一样打击腐败。
In fact, I will move on to something that is deeply corrupt and one of my great battles, the corruption of the media and social media.
事实上，我将继续讨论严重腐败的问题，也是我的伟大斗争之一，即媒体和社交媒体的腐败。
That is to say, I removed the official advertising.
也就是说，我把官方广告去掉了。
That’s why you will see that even though we generate wonderful news, every week in large quantity, the media speak terribly.
这就是为什么你会看到，尽管我们每周都会产生大量精彩的新闻，但媒体却说得很糟糕。
In other words, they demand to have a monopoly on the microphone.
换句话说，他们要求垄断麦克风。
That is they are entitled to insult, hurt, offend, and they don’t want anyone to bother them, and they expect me not to even respond.
也就是说，他们有权侮辱、伤害、冒犯，他们不希望任何人打扰他们，他们甚至希望我不回应。
That’s why a large part of journalism in Argentina hates the X Network.
这就是为什么阿根廷很大一部分新闻界讨厌 X Network。
And that’s why the liberal libertarians love the X network, because we can all say what we want.
这就是自由主义者喜欢 X 网络的原因，因为我们都可以说我们想说的话。
49:49 However, let’s say these supposed journalists who defend freedom of expression, actually what they want is to censor the ideas they don’t like.
然而，假设这些所谓的捍卫言论自由的记者，实际上他们想要的是审查他们不喜欢的想法。
And of course, because they are leftists, because they are wokes, because they can’t stand the competition, because if they had to fight face-to-face, hand to hand, on a level playing field, when it comes to ideas, they would lose because they were a failure in the economic, social, and cultural aspects.
当然，因为他们是左派，因为他们是觉醒者，因为他们无法忍受竞争，因为如果他们必须在公平的竞争环境中面对面、肉搏，当谈到思想时，他们就会失败，因为他们在经济、社会和文化方面都是失败的。
And also, we must not forget that those murderers called socialists killed 150 million people.
而且，我们不能忘记，那些被称为社会主义者的凶手杀害了1.5亿人。
So they clearly cannot fight on equal terms.
所以他们显然不能平等地战斗。
Therefore, they demand that social networks have censorship and that the truth cannot be told to them.
因此，他们要求社交网络进行审查，不能告诉他们真相。
Because when you tell a socialist the truth, they cry, claiming it’s hate speech.
因为当你告诉社会主义者真相时，他们会哭泣，声称这是仇恨言论。
No, it’s not hate speech.
不，这不是仇恨言论。
It’s that you are useless people who have ruined the planet.
而是你们这些无用的人毁了这个星球。
They have made the planet much worse.
他们让地球变得更糟。
50:50 And fortunately today, thanks to social media, especially due to the enormous and brave work of Elon Musk and the role of Twitter, today X, allows information to flow, which makes it possible, let’s say, to expose politicians and also expose the media.
幸运的是，今天，多亏了社交媒体，特别是埃隆·马斯克的巨大而勇敢的工作以及 Twitter 的作用，今天的 X 允许信息流动，这使得揭露政客和媒体成为可能。
And that’s why journalists in Argentina are so violent.
这就是阿根廷记者如此暴力的原因。
Why?
为什么？
Because before they could, for instance, a journalist went and for example, he would go to a person and he would throw a folder at them and say, “If you don’t give me X amount of money, I am going to publish all of this and tarnish your reputation.” And I know for a fact a case of a journalist who carried out this extortion twice to a businessman, that businessman told him that he wasn’t going to pay.
因为在他们可以之前，例如，一名记者去了，例如，他会去找一个人，他会向他们扔一个文件夹，然后说：“如果你不给我 X 笔钱，我将公布所有这些并玷污你的声誉。”我知道一个事实，一名记者向一名商人进行了两次勒索，该商人告诉他他不会付钱。
And evidently the journalist did it.
显然，记者做到了。
Obviously they went to court, there was a trial, and that journalist lost both times.
显然他们上了法庭，进行了审判，而那位记者两次都败诉了。
But that process is very slow.
但这个过程非常缓慢。
And in the meantime, they smeared.
与此同时，他们涂抹了。
51:57 So since the justice system takes a long time, so what is the problem?
那么既然司法系统需要很长时间，那么问题出在哪里呢？
The problem is that in the meantime, your life got dirtied.
问题是与此同时，你的生活变得肮脏了。
So why can’t journalists do all this?
那么为什么记者不能做到这一切呢？
Well, that’s why they dislike X.
嗯，这就是他们不喜欢 X 的原因。
They dislike social media.
他们不喜欢社交媒体。
They dislike the new form of communication because it took away their monopoly over the microphone.
他们不喜欢这种新的交流方式，因为它剥夺了他们对麦克风的垄断权。
And by taking away the monopoly over the microphone, it removed the economic benefits of extortion.
通过取消对麦克风的垄断，它消除了敲诈勒索的经济利益。
52:24 So clearly, that’s another battle I’m fighting.
很明显，这是我正在打的另一场战斗。
You read a newspaper in Argentina, and 85% of what you read is a lie.
你在阿根廷读一份报纸，你读到的85%都是谎言。
That is to say the fundamental characteristic of most journalists, not all, but the vast majority of journalists in Argentina with some honorable exceptions, is that they are liars, slanderers, and defamers.
也就是说，阿根廷大多数记者（不是全部，而是绝大多数记者，除了一些光荣的例外）的基本特征是，他们是说谎者、诽谤者和诽谤者。
And if the monopoly they demand were still in place that they want to reign again, I have no doubt that they will demand money in exchange for silence, because that’s what they are.
如果他们要求的垄断仍然存在，他们想再次统治，我毫不怀疑他们会要求金钱来换取沉默，因为他们就是这样。
They are extortionists, they are thieves, they are corrupt.
他们是勒索者，他们是小偷，他们是腐败分子。
And then of course, obviously when you take away a privilege from a sector, they get upset.
当然，显然当你剥夺某个部门的特权时，他们会感到不安。
Well, welcome to freedom.
好吧，欢迎来到自由。
So you’re not only fighting for economic freedom, you’re fighting for freedom of speech?
所以你不仅在为经济自由而战，还在为言论自由而战？
Exactly.
确切地。
53:19 I fight for freedom in all aspects of life.
我在生活的各个方面为自由而战。
That is to say, one of the things that seems most interesting to me is that when the Berlin Wall fell, it’s true that officially it fell in the year 1989.
也就是说，对我来说最有趣的事情之一是，当柏林墙倒塌时，确实是在 1989 年正式倒塌。
But the reality is that the wall or socialism fell in the year 1961 when they had to build the wall.
但现实是，隔离墙或社会主义在 1961 年倒塌了，当时他们不得不建造隔离墙。
I mean, they built it because people were leaving Communist Germany for capitalist Germany.
我的意思是，他们建造它是因为人们离开共产主义德国前往资本主义德国。
They realized that those on the western side were much better off.
他们意识到西边的人过得要好得多。
And of course, to prevent people from leaving.
当然，也是为了防止人们离开。
They put what a wonderful system, right?
他们建立了多么美妙的系统，对吗？
So I mean, they had to trap people.
所以我的意思是，他们必须困住人们。
They couldn’t let them go.
他们不能让他们走。
I mean, these are such wonderful ideas that they had to apply them at gunpoint.
我的意思是，这些想法是如此美妙，以至于他们不得不在枪口下应用它们。
54:13 Well, it’s no coincidence that they killed 150 million human beings.
嗯，他们杀害了 1.5 亿人，这并非巧合。
So what happened then?
那么后来发生了什么？
The official fall of the wall in the year 1989 made it clear that socialism had failed.
1989年柏林墙的正式倒塌清楚地表明社会主义已经失败。
In that context, the socialists, they moved the discussion of class struggle in economics and took it to other areas.
在这种背景下，社会主义者将阶级斗争的讨论转移到了经济学中，并将其带到了其他领域。
So for example, socialism or what is of the 21st century or cultural Marxism or post-Marxism, whatever definition you want, is to take class struggle to different aspects of life.
例如，社会主义或21世纪的、文化马克思主义或后马克思主义，无论你想要什么定义，都是将阶级斗争带入生活的不同方面。
54:58 For example, one of the aspects of life where you, let’s say, have this is in gender ideology.
例如，生活中你所遇到的问题之一就是性别意识形态。
I mean, it’s incredible because the first ones to defend equality before the law were the liberals.
我的意思是，这令人难以置信，因为第一个捍卫法律面前平等的人是自由主义者。
The first to defend women’s rights were the liberals.
最先捍卫妇女权利的是自由主义者。
Jeremy Bentham in the year 1750 was the first to demand equality before the law for women.
1750 年，杰里米·边沁 (Jeremy Bentham) 是第一个要求妇女在法律面前平等的人。
I mean the cause of equality, equality before the law for women and equality of rights.
我指的是平等事业，法律面前妇女平等和权利平等。
The first ones who advocated for this were the liberals, did you know?
最先提倡这一点的是自由主义者，你知道吗？
However, what does the left do?
然而，左派做什么呢？
They just go on to radicalize it.
他们只是继续激进化它。
And then it moves to what is called female chauvinism.
然后它转向所谓的女性沙文主义。
55:43 Female chauvinism is, let’s say, the fight against males.
可以说，女性沙文主义是针对男性的斗争。
And then, I mean, how do they do it?
然后，我的意思是，他们是如何做到的？
They do it by assigning rights.
他们通过分配权利来做到这一点。
But when you assign a right, someone has to pay for it.
但当你分配一项权利时，就必须有人为此付出代价。
And that has consequences.
这会产生后果。
And in general, let’s say this always happens, the consequences are that the results are worse than what you had before.
一般来说，假设这种情况总是发生，其后果就是结果比以前更糟糕。
I mean, in any state intervention, the subsequent result is often worse than what you originally had.
我的意思是，在任何国家干预中，随后的结果往往比最初的结果更糟糕。
So that’s one thing.
所以这是一回事。
And not only that, but the other side of this is the environmental agenda, which sets man against nature involving all aspects of environmentalism and everything related to climate change.
不仅如此，另一方面是环境议程，它使人与自然对抗，涉及环保主义的各个方面以及与气候变化有关的一切。
56:29 In other words, they can’t stand any serious discussion.
换句话说，他们经不起任何严肃的讨论。
Therefore, all environmental policies are nothing more than an excuse to collect taxes so that a group of parasitic bureaucrats can live at the expense of others and finance sinister ideas, where the most sinister idea of all is that there is no room for everyone on planet earth.
因此，一切环保政策无非是为了让一群寄生官僚以牺牲他人的利益为代价而收税的借口，为邪恶的想法提供资金，其中最邪恶的想法是地球上没有每个人的生存空间。
That is an idea that failed with Malthus at the beginning of the 19th century, a murderous idea that was also applied by the Egyptians against the Jews.
这个想法在 19 世纪初被马尔萨斯失败了，埃及人也用这个凶残的想法来对付犹太人。
And this is famously recorded in the Book of Shemot or Exodus.
这在《谢莫特之书》或《出埃及记》中有著名的记载。
57:07 Or for example, another thing is Black Lives matter, that is Black people against white people or indigenous people against the established communities, or I mean everything related to LGBT agendas.
或者例如，另一件事是黑人的生命问题，即黑人反对白人或土著人民反对既定社区，或者我指的是与 LGBT 议程相关的一切。
Definitely, these are some of the ways in which socialism extended the class struggle into other aspects of society, creating divisions and fostering deceit with the sole purpose of absorbing taxes.
当然，这些都是社会主义将阶级斗争延伸到社会其他方面的一些方式，制造分裂和助长欺骗，其唯一目的是吸纳税收。
57:41 I mean, what was the ministry of women in Argentina doing?
我的意思是，阿根廷妇女部在做什么？
Did it manage to reduce a single femicide?
它是否成功减少了杀害女性的事件？
No, none at all.
不，一点也没有。
The number of femicides exploded just the same.
杀害女性的人数同样激增。
In fact, the most feminist president in Argentine history, Mr. Alberto Fernández, used to beat his wife.
事实上，阿根廷历史上最女权主义的总统阿尔贝托·费尔南德斯先生曾经殴打过他的妻子。
That is such a strange feminist.
这是一个多么奇怪的女权主义者。
I mean, well…
我的意思是，嗯……
So within the ranks of feminists, let’s say, you will essentially find the largest number of rapists and women beaters.
因此，在女权主义者的行列中，比如说，你基本上会发现数量最多的强奸犯和女性殴打者。
And it’s quite interesting what they do.
他们所做的事情很有趣。
Their hypocrisy is truly striking.
他们的虚伪确实令人震惊。
58:20 It’s not just about that though.
但这不仅仅如此。
I mean, the battle is on three fronts.
我的意思是，战斗是在三个方面进行的。
You have the economic front, which is free enterprise capitalism.
你有经济战线，这是自由企业资本主义。
Then we have the political level.
然后我们有政治层面。
Currently, the system that the world has designed is a Republican liberal democracy with checks and balances.
目前，世界设计的制度是制衡的共和自由民主制度。
And I mean, at the cultural battle level, notice that socialism has been very successful in the cultural battle.
我的意思是，在文化斗争层面，请注意社会主义在文化斗争中非常成功。
It has been very successful politically because it was able to translate that political battle in winning many elections.
它在政治上非常成功，因为它能够通过政治斗争赢得许多选举。
But why is it falling apart?
但为什么它会崩溃呢？
Why?
为什么？
Because it produces misery and because the economic system is a disaster, so people eventually realize that it is making things worse for them.
因为它会带来痛苦，而且经济体系是一场灾难，所以人们最终意识到这会让他们的情况变得更糟。
59:17 Liberal, libertarians are very good when it comes to economics.
自由主义者、自由主义者在经济学方面非常擅长。
Yes.
是的。
And those good economic results can actually lead to the generation of solid political processes.
这些良好的经济成果实际上可以带来坚实的政治进程。
But what happened?
但发生了什么？
The liberals neglected the cultural battle.
自由主义者忽视了文化斗争。
Much of the blame was placed on Fukuyama when he said, “This is the end of history.” No, it was not the end of history because the following year, in 1990, the socialists gathered at the São Paulo Forum, and based on the ideas of Gramsci, designed a strategy to infiltrate the media, culture, and education, which ended up changing the entire discourse.
当福山说“这是历史的终结”时，大部分责任都归咎于福山。不，这并不是历史的终结，因为次年，即1990年，社会主义者聚集在圣保罗论坛上，根据葛兰西的思想，设计了渗透媒体、文化和教育的策略，最终改变了整个话语。
And they established that what they said was politically correct and that any-
他们证实他们所说的是政治正确的，而且任何——
1:00:00 …
……
was politically correct and that any idea outside of it was to be considered reactionary and had to be censored or even persecuted, and they claimed to be the ones defending freedom even though they were the ones persecuting people.
他们在政治上是正确的，任何在其之外的想法都被认为是反动的，必须受到审查甚至迫害，他们声称自己是捍卫自由的人，尽管他们是迫害人民的人。
1:00:16 It’s the same with journalists who get upset with Twitter.
对 Twitter 感到不满的记者也是如此。
They say they defend freedom but can’t stand it when those who think differently speak.
他们说他们捍卫自由，但当那些有不同想法的人发表言论时，他们就无法忍受。
Is that freedom?
这就是自由吗？
Yes, for them, but not for those who think differently.
是的，对他们来说是的，但对那些有不同想法的人来说却不是。
That’s not freedom.
那不是自由。
That’s fascism.
这就是法西斯主义。
Then, what do we say?
那么，我们怎么说呢？
Then we must fight on the economic front.
那么我们就必须在经济战线上作战。
And I believe we are implementing an extremely successful economic program that is being recognized worldwide.
我相信我们正在实施一项极其成功的经济计划，并得到全世界的认可。
In fact, the other night, the president-elect, Donald Trump, indeed gave recognition for the achievements we are having in Argentina and the speed at which we have done it.
事实上，前几天晚上，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普确实对我们在阿根廷取得的成就以及我们取得成就的速度给予了认可。
1:00:54 At the same time, you have to fight the political battle because, well, soccer matches are not won by shouting from the stands, they are won by playing on the field.
与此同时，你必须进行政治斗争，因为，足球比赛不是通过在看台上喊叫来获胜的，而是通过在球场上比赛来获胜的。
But that alone is not enough because you have to, let’s say you need to convey to society the values of capitalism, the free market, what liberalism is, the value of freedom, right?
但仅此还不够，因为你必须，比方说，你需要向社会传达资本主义的价值观、自由市场、什么是自由主义、自由的价值，对吧？
And when you succeed in that, then we will indeed be able to advance steadily.
当你做到了这一点时，我们确实能够稳步前进。
If you don’t fight the cultural battle, what happened in Chile will happen to you.
如果你不进行文化斗争，智利发生的事情就会发生在你身上。
They had economic success.
他们在经济上取得了成功。
It was, let’s say sustained over time, but at some point it collapsed.
可以说，它随着时间的推移而持续存在，但在某个时刻它崩溃了。
Why did it collapse?
为什么会塌呢？
Because they hadn’t fought the cultural battle.
因为他们没有打过文化之战。
1:01:42 Then socialism, little by little, took control of institutions in education and the media.
然后社会主义逐渐控制了教育和媒体机构。
So, they took over the media and culture and on that basis, they attacked and broke up the system.
因此，他们接管了媒体和文化，并在此基础上攻击并瓦解了这个体系。
And then they found themselves with increasing doses of socialism and the only thing socialism generates is poverty.
然后他们发现自己的社会主义剂量越来越大，而社会主义唯一产生的就是贫困。
Therefore, what you must keep in mind is that you have to fight the battles on all fronts.
所以，你必须记住的是，你必须打好各个方面的仗。
And if you don’t keep that in mind, I can tell you are headed towards collapse.
如果你不牢记这一点，我可以告诉你你正在走向崩溃。
Like you said, in this fight against corruption, you are challenging some very powerful people, a powerful establishment.
正如你所说，在这场反腐败斗争中，你正在挑战一些非常有权势的人、一个强大的机构。
1:02:17 Are you ever afraid for your life?
你是否曾为自己的生命感到恐惧？
Potential assassinations?
潜在的暗杀？
No.
不。
1:02:33 Tell me what good is it to live life, I mean, in slavery?
告诉我，在奴隶制中生活有什么好处？
Look, there is a song by a Spanish singer called Nino Bravo.
你看，有一首西班牙歌手的歌，名叫尼诺·布拉沃（Nino Bravo）。
Just to be clear, he has already left this earth, so we can say he has passed onto the beyond.
需要澄清的是，他已经离开了这个地球，所以我们可以说他已经进入了彼岸。
The song is called Libre, and the song, it tells the story of Peter Fetcher, an 18-year-old boy who when the separation was made, and I mean the construction of the Berlin Wall begins.
这首歌叫做 Libre，这首歌讲述了 Peter Fetcher 的故事，Peter Fetcher 是一个 18 岁的男孩，当分离发生时，我的意思是柏林墙的建造开始了。
His family ends up on the western side and he accidentally ends up on the eastern side.
他的家人最终来到了西边，而他意外地来到了东边。
And for a whole year, he plans his escape to the western side.
他花了整整一年的时间计划逃往西边。
And in that context, when he tries to escape, he gets murdered.
在这种情况下，当他试图逃跑时，他被谋杀了。
1:03:36 So really, what is the point of life if it’s not in freedom, right?
说实话，如果没有自由，生活还有什么意义，对吧？
I mean what is the point of living without fighting for your values?
我的意思是，如果不为自己的价值观而奋斗，生活还有什么意义呢？
If I am willing to give my life for my values, then what is the point of living without freedom?
如果我愿意为自己的价值观献出生命，那么没有自由的生活还有什么意义呢？
Look, can I tell you something interesting that happened to me here in the United States?
听着，我可以告诉你我在美国发生的一些有趣的事情吗？
Let’s say back in the year 1998, I came to the United States to take a series of courses to improve my English, which I never use in formal terms because as president, as you can imagine, if I make a mistake, I can create a serious situation.
比方说，1998 年，我来到美国参加一系列课程来提高我的英语水平，但我从来没有用过正式术语，因为作为总统，正如你可以想象的，如果我犯了一个错误，我可能会造成严重的情况。
Fortunately, I have an interpreter who is a superstar, and if I make a mistake even in Spanish, he corrects me in the version of the other language.
幸运的是，我有一位超级明星的翻译，如果我在西班牙语中犯了错误，他会用另一种语言的版本纠正我。
1:04:34 And so back then, in that year, I went to San Francisco and I visited Alcatraz.
那一年，我去了旧金山，参观了恶魔岛。
You are young, but I mean the visit was an audio tour.
你还年轻，但我的意思是这次访问是音频导览。
You got a Walkman and you would choose the different tracks and listen to the story.
你有一个随身听，你可以选择不同的曲目并听故事。
The most interesting thing is that the Alcatraz story ended in the recreation yard where the basketball court, exercise area, and all recreational facilities were located.
最有趣的是，恶魔岛的故事结束于休闲庭院，那里有篮球场、运动区和所有娱乐设施。
So anyone would have thought that this was the best part of Alcatraz.
所以任何人都会认为这是恶魔岛最好的部分。
And yet, what they said in the guide was that that was the hardest part for the inmates.
然而，他们在指南中说，这对囚犯来说是最困难的部分。
Why?
为什么？
Because I mean that recreation area in particular is built in front of the San Francisco Bay.
因为我的意思是休闲区特别建在旧金山湾前面。
So, the inmates could all see how San Francisco continued to build up and evolve and develop every day while they were locked up in there.
所以，囚犯们每天都可以看到旧金山是如何在被关押期间不断建立、演变和发展的。
They couldn’t take part in that.
他们不能参与其中。
They were confined in that prison.
他们被关在那个监狱里。
And that made them fully aware of the value of freedom.
这让他们充分意识到自由的价值。
1:05:51 So, in my experience for me, the fight for freedom is relentless, okay?
所以，根据我的经验，争取自由的斗争是无情的，好吗？
I mean my greatest hero in all of human history is Moses.
我的意思是，人类历史上最伟大的英雄是摩西。
The feat of Moses is like one person alone with his brother, Aaron, both confronting the combined forces of the United States, China, and Russia together.
摩西的壮举就像是一个人和他的兄弟阿龙一人单独对抗美国、中国和俄罗斯的联军。
And it was Moses who said to Ramesses, “Let my people go.” Well, Ramesses resisted and the forces of heaven ran him over.
摩西对拉美西斯说：“放我的人民走吧。”好吧，拉美西斯反抗了，天庭的力量把他压倒了。
But what I mean is I don’t see any other possible way to live other than with freedom.
但我的意思是，除了自由之外，我看不到任何其他可能的生活方式。
And I would always fight for full freedom and I would be at the forefront of this cause.
我将永远为充分的自由而奋斗，我将站在这一事业的最前沿。
I mean it’s a cause that I’m going to die with my boots on.
我的意思是，这是一个我会穿着靴子死去的原因。
I mean I’m not going to make do with living any other way other than with freedom.
我的意思是，除了自由之外，我不会以任何其他方式生活。
I will fight everything.
我会对抗一切。
I’m going to fight as much as it takes.
我会尽一切努力去战斗。
At least that’s the way I feel.
至少我是这么感觉的。
So, what good is it to be alive if you’re confined?
那么，如果你被限制住了，活着还有什么好处呢？
What good is it to be alive if you’re not free?
如果你不自由，活着有什么好处？
It’s no good.
这可不行。
What good was it for Peter Fetcher to be alive in communist Germany?
彼得·费彻生活在共产主义德国有什么好处呢？
Well, at least he had a moment of happiness while he tried to escape.
好吧，至少在他试图逃跑的时候，他有过片刻的幸福。
Another guy who fights for freedom, freedom of speech in this case, is your new friend, Elon Musk.
另一个为自由而战的人，在这种情况下是言论自由，他是你的新朋友，埃隆·马斯克。
1:07:26 What do you admire and what have you learned from your interactions with Elon?
你欣赏什么？从与埃隆的互动中你学到了什么？
I have a huge admiration for Elon Musk.
我非常钦佩埃隆·马斯克。
1:07:39 He is an absolutely unconventional person.
他是一个绝对不按常理出牌的人。
He’s a great fighter for the ideas of freedom.
他是自由思想的伟大斗士。
What he has done on Twitter, now known as X, and how he is helping the world nowadays to wake up once and for all and become aware of the socialist virus, the woke virus, that in itself makes him a hero in the history of humanity.
他在 Twitter（现在被称为 X）上所做的事情，以及他如何帮助当今世界一劳永逸地醒来并意识到社会主义病毒，唤醒的病毒，这本身就使他成为人类历史上的英雄。
But it’s not just that.
但不仅如此。
1:08:25 One of the things that happened to me is that when I went to first talk to him, I thought I was going to meet a successful businessman and that I would have a typical successful businessman conversation who understands business and that some of his businesses, some of his business is slightly more exotic, but that’s the kind of talk you would expect to have.
发生在我身上的一件事是，当我第一次和他谈话时，我以为我会遇到一个成功的商人，我会进行一次典型的成功商人谈话，他了解商业，他的一些业务，他的一些业务稍微更具异国情调，但这就是你所期望的那种谈话。
And business people are truly admirable, right?
而商界人士确实令人钦佩，对吗？
Because they are true benefactors of society, but they’re usually very much focused on their own business.
因为他们是社会真正的捐助者，但他们通常非常专注于自己的事业。
And one of the things that really, really shocked me when I met Elon Musk, we had scheduled a meeting for no more than 50 minutes, the first time we were in the meeting for a little over 45 minutes because he was about to miss his flight.
当我见到埃隆·马斯克时，让我感到非常非常震惊的一件事是，我们安排了一次不超过 50 分钟的会议，这是我们第一次在会议中持续了 45 分钟多一点，因为他即将错过航班。
So obviously, if someone as important as him doesn’t fly as planned, it has to be rescheduled and he loses a lot of hours.
显然，如果像他这样重要的人没有按计划飞行，就必须重新安排航班，他就会损失很多时间。
Imagine, every minute is very valuable.
想象一下，每一分钟都非常宝贵。
1:09:42 And one of the things that happened was that basically he brought up the topic of demography and we started discussing demographics and growth.
发生的事情之一是，基本上他提出了人口统计的话题，我们开始讨论人口统计和增长。
I never imagined that I would end up discussing demographics and growth with him.
我从未想过我最终会与他讨论人口统计和增长。
And another very fun thing was that something funny he said to me was that since we shared our vision regarding demographic issues and the need to populate the planet, he asked me, “Now, what about you?
另一件非常有趣的事情是，他对我说的一件有趣的事情是，既然我们在人口问题和人口增长的必要性方面有着共同的愿景，他问我，“现在，你呢？
When are you going to move in that direction?” I said, “Oh, look, I have five children.” And he said, “Well, the four-legged ones don’t count.”
你打算什么时候朝这个方向发展？”我说：“哦，看，我有五个孩子。”他说：“好吧，四足的不算。”
1:10:27 That was the first meeting I had with Elon Musk.
那是我与埃隆·马斯克的第一次会面。
The second meeting was when, here at the universities, we started seeing anti-Semitic demonstrations where basically Palestinian flags were displayed and Jews were harassed and persecuted.
第二次会议是在大学里，我们开始看到反犹太示威活动，基本上展示了巴勒斯坦国旗，犹太人受到骚扰和迫害。
And at that moment when we had that second meeting, he showed himself to be very deeply involved with that and brought up the issue of the cultural battle.
在我们第二次会面的那一刻，他表现出自己非常深入地参与其中，并提出了文化之战的问题。
So, I mean it’s not quite conventional, even in the political field.
所以，我的意思是，即使在政治领域，这也不是很传统。
1:11:14 During our last talk, which lasted for about two and a half hours, one of the things we talked about was freedom and what was at stake for the United States in this election.
在我们持续了大约两个半小时的最后一次谈话中，我们谈到的其中一件事是自由以及美国在这次选举中面临的利害关系。
Therefore, he is a person, honestly.
因此，他是一个人，诚实的。
I can say he’s well above average.
我可以说他远高于平均水平。
I mean a person of unconventional intelligence and also he’s very charming.
我的意思是一个具有非传统智慧的人，而且他非常有魅力。
So, I mean, again, I have a great admiration for him and I really interact very closely with him.
所以，我的意思是，我再次非常钦佩他，并且我与他的互动非常密切。
He’s very interested in what our Ministry of Deregulation is doing, which seeks to remove regulations.
他对我们放松管制部正在做的事情非常感兴趣，该部旨在取消法规。
But at the same time, he works with another person who is also interested in the chainsaw approach, and so I’m very pleased because they are going to try and replicate the model we are implementing in Argentina.
但与此同时，他与另一个对电锯方法也感兴趣的人一起工作，所以我很高兴，因为他们将尝试复制我们在阿根廷实施的模型。
1:12:21 And also, Donald Trump himself is very enthusiastic about this and anything in the way of reducing regulations and cutting public spending and taking government out of the equation means more freedom for the people.
而且，唐纳德·特朗普本人对此非常热衷，任何减少监管、削减公共支出以及将政府排除在外的方式都意味着人民有更多自由。
So, I’m very pleased with what’s going on.
所以，我对正在发生的事情感到非常满意。
And with Trump’s victory, because the United States will be better off, Argentina is going to be better too and the whole world is going to be better off.
随着特朗普的胜利，因为美国会变得更好，阿根廷也会变得更好，整个世界都会变得更好。
Today, the world is a much better place than it was just a few days ago.
今天，世界比几天前要美好得多。
Like you said, Elon and Vivek Ramaswamy are heading the DOGE, Department of Government Efficiency.
正如您所说，埃隆·拉马斯瓦米 (Elon Ramaswamy) 和维韦克·拉马斯瓦米 (Vivek Ramaswamy) 是政府效率部 (DOGE) 的负责人。
1:12:54 So from your experience this year as president of Argentina and every chainsaw economic policies that you’ve implemented, what advice would you give to Elon and Vivek about how to do it in the United States?
那么，从你今年担任阿根廷总统的经历以及你所实施的每一项电锯经济政策来看，你会给埃隆和维韦克什么关于如何在美国做到这一点的建议？
Just cut to the chase.
直接切入正题吧。
1:13:14 Cut to the chase.
切入正题。
Simple as that.
就这么简单。
I’ll tell you a story and you’re going to love it.
我给你讲一个故事，你一定会喜欢的。
Currently in Argentina, due to the political balance we’ve achieved, we have had certain powers delegated from Congress to the executive branch, and therefore we can resolve it by decree that the deregulation minister, Federico Sturzenegger, in his ministry shows a counter that displays in front of everyone there.
目前在阿根廷，由于我们已经实现了政治平衡，我们已经从国会向行政部门授予了一定的权力，因此我们可以通过法令来解决这个问题，即放松管制部长费德里科·施图辛格在他的部门中展示一个柜台，展示在所有人面前。
He displays the number of days, all right, during which the delegated powers will continue to be valid.
他显示了授予的权力将继续有效的天数。
Therefore, he has a whole deregulation division, also a public spending cut division, and government structure reduction division, and he also has an elite corps that’s cleaning up all of the laws that hinder the economic system and progress.
因此，他有一个完整的放松管制部门，还有一个公共支出削减部门和政府结构削减部门，他还有一支精英部队正在清理所有阻碍经济体系和进步的法律。
And every day, he removes between one and five economic restrictions.
他每天都会取消一到五项经济限制。
1:14:24 So, my advice would be for them to go all the way, to push it to the very limit, and do not give up.
所以，我的建议是他们要一路走下去，挑战极限，不要放弃。
Do not let down their guard.
不要放松警惕。
Furthermore, that agenda does not have political purpose because at the end of the day, you are removing privileges.
此外，该议程没有政治目的，因为最终，您将取消特权。
Of course, there will be people complaining, but those are people who are losing privileges, so they will have to explain society why they are keeping those privileges, and that is quite uncomfortable.
当然，会有人抱怨，但那些人正在失去特权，所以他们必须向社会解释为什么他们保留这些特权，这是相当不舒服的。
You’ve spoken with Donald Trump, allegedly he called you his favorite president.
您曾与唐纳德·特朗普交谈过，据称他称您为他最喜欢的总统。
1:14:57 What did you discuss?
你们讨论了什么？
And maybe, again, what do you admire about President Trump and what do you learn from him?
也许，你又钦佩特朗普总统什么，你从他身上学到了什么？
There are several things that I admire about President Trump.
特朗普总统有几点令我钦佩。
1:15:10 The first is that he probably…
第一个是他可能……
I think he’s provided ample proof of this in his first presidency.
我认为他在第一任总统任期内提供了充分的证据。
He understands the nature of the cultural battle.
他了解文化战争的本质。
He has openly confronted socialism, his speeches openly target socialism, he perfectly understands the woke virus, and that is of great value because it means understanding what it’s all about.
他公开对抗社会主义，他的演讲公开针对社会主义，他完全理解唤醒的病毒，这很有价值，因为这意味着理解它的全部内容。
1:15:50 Another thing I truly admire about him is his courage.
我真正钦佩他的另一件事是他的勇气。
In fact, thankfully, thank goodness he didn’t get assassinated or killed, but it was by a small chance occurrence that could have killed him just because he moved at the right moment.
事实上，谢天谢地，谢天谢地，他没有被暗杀或杀死，但这是一个很小的偶然事件，可能会因为他在正确的时刻移动而杀死他。
And yet, that didn’t intimidate him and he went on.
然而，这并没有吓倒他，他继续前进。
And in fact, during his first campaign, and in this one as well, in the second one and third one, they criticized him, insulted him, offended him, said awful things about him, made up all sorts of horrible stories about him.
事实上，在他的第一次竞选期间，以及在这一次、第二次和第三次竞选中，他们批评他，侮辱他，冒犯他，说他的坏话，编造关于他的各种可怕的故事。
In that respect, I can say I deeply relate because probably no one in our history has had such a negative campaign from all the media like they did to me.
在这方面，我可以说我深深地感同身受，因为在我们的历史上可能没有人像他们对我那样受到所有媒体的负面攻击。
But let’s say they were quite similar.
但假设它们非常相似。
1:16:54 This is why it’s so interesting, and I was so deeply moved when last night I also got to meet Sylvester Stallone, because Sylvester Stallone talks about, well, how important is that no matter how hard they hit you and keep on hitting you all the time, despite all that, you keep going on and on and on.
这就是为什么它如此有趣，当昨晚我也见到了西尔维斯特·史泰龙时，我深受感动，因为西尔维斯特·史泰龙谈到，无论他们打你多狠，并且一直打你，尽管如此，你还是继续打下去，这是多么重要。
What I’m trying to say is that so many of Sylvester Stallone’s approaches are truly inspirational, don’t you think?
我想说的是，西尔维斯特·史泰龙的许多方法确实鼓舞人心，你不觉得吗？
So imagine, I’m about to give the speech and I see Sylvester Stallone and Sylvester Stallone knows me.
所以想象一下，我即将发表演讲，我看到西尔维斯特·史泰龙，而西尔维斯特·史泰龙认识我。
It was truly insane.
这真是太疯狂了。
I had to pinch myself.
我不得不掐自己一下。
I mean this can’t be true.
我的意思是这不可能是真的。
1:17:45 And besides, well, the people were wonderful with me last night.
此外，昨晚人们对我很好。
They’ve been wonderful today.
他们今天太棒了。
I’ve taken hundreds of selfies.
我已经拍了数百张自拍照。
I mean it’s truly been…
我的意思是，这确实是……
I would say it’s been my break, let me say, after almost a year in office and having to face all sorts of media torture because the journalists who have vested interests and are corrupt are professional torturers.
我想说，这是我的休息，让我说，在任职近一年后，我不得不面对各种媒体酷刑，因为拥有既得利益和腐败的记者是职业酷刑者。
Yes, because they invade your personal life, your family, and your privacy.
是的，因为它们侵犯了你的个人生活、你的家庭和你的隐私。
Let me tell you something to show you the kind of garbage the media in Argentina can do.
让我告诉你一些事情，让你看看阿根廷媒体可以做些什么垃圾。
They send three drones to spy on me at my presidential residence, to spy on me.
他们派出三架无人机到我的总统府监视我，监视我。
Do you think that’s right?
你认为这是对的吗？
No.
不。
Exactly.
正是如此。
1:18:32 But that kind of thing happens in Argentina, not to mention the many lies and horrible things they say.
但这种事情在阿根廷时有发生，更不用说他们所说的许多谎言和可怕的话了。
I, for instance, remember that time when my father was hospitalized.
例如，我记得我父亲住院的那次。
My father is a man of a really strong character who has had two heart surgeries, all right?
我父亲是一个性格非常坚强的人，做过两次心脏手术，好吗？
And one day, a journalist was saying all sorts of lies about my father.
有一天，一名记者对我父亲说了各种各样的谎言。
My father was hospitalized and he almost died of a heart attack.
我父亲住院了，差点死于心脏病。
So that kind of thing is what journalism and the press do in Argentina.
这就是阿根廷新闻业和媒体所做的事情。
So they start to attack your private life, your mother, your father, your sister.
所以他们开始攻击你的私生活、你的母亲、你的父亲、你的妹妹。
Even my dogs that I absolutely adore, they are the most wonderful beings in the universe, they even target my four-legged children.
即使是我非常喜欢的狗，它们是宇宙中最奇妙的生物，它们甚至以我的四足孩子为目标。
1:19:24 So, imagine that I’ve been in office for nearly a year, a year as president, and since they can’t criticize my management except by lying and distorting the numbers, they meddle with all these things, things they have been doing all the time since the year 2021 when I officially entered politics.
所以，想象一下，我已经任职近一年了，担任总统一年了，由于他们除了撒谎和歪曲数字之外无法批评我的管理层，所以他们插手所有这些事情，自2021年我正式进入政界以来他们一直在做的事情。
And I’ve seen what they’ve done to Trump.
我亲眼目睹了他们对特朗普所做的一切。
So, that also makes me relate a lot to him because he’s a true warrior.
所以，这也让我对他产生了很多共鸣，因为他是一个真正的战士。
He’s a Viking, he’s a Viking, he’s literally a Viking.
他是维京人，他是维京人，他是名副其实的维京人。
I mean he’s someone I admire for how he has kept fighting in the face of adversity, even against all odds.
我的意思是，他是我钦佩的人，因为他在逆境中坚持不懈地奋斗，即使遇到困难。
And still he managed to win.
但他仍然赢了。
Amazing.
惊人的。
1:20:22 And that’s why I can relate that much.
这就是为什么我能感同身受。
And I’ve also seen how he’s been unfairly criticized, like when he was accused of protectionism or when he wanted to discuss some matters within the context of public debate regarding the design of monetary policy as regards to Fed.
我还看到他受到了不公平的批评，比如当他被指控保护主义时，或者当他想在有关美联储货币政策设计的公开辩论背景下讨论一些问题时。
And basically, they have accused him of things.
基本上，他们指责了他。
I mean isn’t he entitled to give an opinion as a president?
我的意思是他作为总统就没有权利发表意见吗？
I mean any citizen could give their opinion, even more so a president.
我的意思是任何公民都可以发表自己的意见，总统更是如此。
Why is it important to you that Argentina has a close relationship with the United States?
为什么阿根廷与美国的密切关系对您来说很重要？
Well, to us, that is truly important, okay?
嗯，对我们来说，这确实很重要，好吗？
1:21:03 Because we’ve decided to be geopolitical allies of the United States ever since our campaign, we have decided that our allies will be the United States and Israel because they basically represent the ideas of the western world, they represent the free world.
因为自从我们竞选以来我们就决定成为美国的地缘政治盟友，我们决定我们的盟友将是美国和以色列，因为他们基本上代表了西方世界的想法，他们代表了自由世界。
That is to say, what we would call today, let’s say, a liberal democracy by confronting the autocrats.
也就是说，我们今天所说的，通过对抗独裁者的自由民主。
And in that sense, that is the geopolitical alignment.
从这个意义上说，这就是地缘政治联盟。
1:21:44 Moreover, in our campaign, we were very, very clear on three main points.
而且，在我们的竞选活动中，我们在三个要点上非常非常明确。
One, the economic pillar.
一、经济支柱。
We talked about cutting public spending and I would make my appearances with a chainsaw.
我们讨论了削减公共开支，我会带着电锯亮相。
We talked about economic freedom, deregulation, that is, and I talked about a competition of currencies, and people obviously were interested in the dollar.
我们谈到了经济自由、放松管制，也就是说，我谈到了货币竞争，人们显然对美元感兴趣。
So, it was obvious that the economic policy was clear, all right?
所以，很明显经济政策是明确的，好吗？
And not only was it clear, but we are also fulfilling it.
不仅是明确的，而且我们也在履行它。
That is the first point.
这是第一点。
1:22:17 Second was our policy on security.
其次是我们的安全政策。
The idea being to fight crime, I mean relentlessly as well as security, no mercy, right?
我的想法是打击犯罪，我的意思是毫不留情地打击犯罪以及安全，毫不留情，对吧？
And in fact, in Argentina, there are no more roadblocks, which they said were impossible to end.
事实上，在阿根廷，不再有障碍，他们说这是不可能结束的。
Not only that, we have strengthened the security forces and also our armed forces, and we are waging a tough battle against drug trafficking and narcoterrorism.
不仅如此，我们还加强了安全部队和武装部队，正在与贩毒和毒品恐怖主义进行艰苦卓绝的斗争。
Therefore, we are also strongly fulfilling that.
因此，我们也正在大力履行这一目标。
Notice that these two points, which were the main concerns, they were the biggest concerns of Argentinians when we took office, are now in fifth and sixth place.
请注意，这两点是我们上任时阿根廷人最关心的主要问题，现在排在第五和第六位。
1:22:59 Today, the problem for Argentinians is corruption, whether there is unemployment, if there is poverty, but they don’t mention inflation and insecurity anymore.
今天，阿根廷人的问题是腐败，是否有失业，是否有贫困，但他们不再提及通货膨胀和不安全。
And besides, a third point that I made clear was that I would align with the United States and Israel internationally, and at my campaign rallies, there would be groups that would come along with flags of Israel.
此外，我明确表示的第三点是，我将在国际上与美国和以色列结盟，在我的竞选集会上，会有一些团体举着以色列国旗。
So, it’s clear that our international policy approach was always very clear and this is something I state during my speeches when I talk about the values of the west and the civilization of the west.
所以，很明显，我们的国际政策方针一直是非常明确的，这是我在演讲中谈到西方价值观和西方文明时所说的。
In fact, yesterday, and even more so today during my speeches, I talked about how the different Greek groups or tribes go together to confront the Persians.
事实上，昨天，尤其是今天，在我的演讲中，我谈到了不同的希腊群体或部落如何联合起来对抗波斯人。
1:23:58 That is to say it seemed that from that time, 500 years before Christ until today, that struggle continues, right?
也就是说，从基督诞生前500年的那时起，直到今天，这场斗争似乎仍在继续，对吗？
But well, so of course we’re all in.
但好吧，我们当然都参与其中。
We are betting on the United States becoming, once again a leader in the West.
我们押注美国将再次成为西方的领导者。
We needed someone to come back to make America great again.
我们需要有人回来让美国再次伟大。
And as part of that process, being a commercial ally is also a great idea.
作为这一过程的一部分，成为商业盟友也是一个好主意。
So, we would really like to move forward and deepen our trade ties and our investment ties.
因此，我们非常愿意向前推进并深化我们的贸易关系和投资关系。
And well, we would also like to be part of the NATO as well.
嗯，我们也想成为北约的一部分。
Do you think it’s still possible…
你觉得还有可能吗……
1:24:52 One of the radical ideas you had as you were running for president was to dollarize the Argentine economy.
您在竞选总统时提出的激进想法之一就是使阿根廷经济美元化。
Do you think that’s still a good idea?
你认为这仍然是个好主意吗？
Are you still thinking about that?
你还在想这个吗？
Let’s see, let’s break it down.
让我们看看，让我们分解一下。
1:25:05 Let’s say, if you review all my statements, I talk about currency competition.
假设，如果你回顾一下我所有的陈述，我谈论的是货币竞争。
I’m not strictly talking about dollarization, I’m talking about currency competition and eliminating the central bank.
严格来说，我并不是在谈论美元化，而是在谈论货币竞争和消除央行。
If people later decide to embrace the dollar, that is their choice.
如果人们后来决定接受美元，那是他们的选择。
Ultimately, in the model I propose, what happens is the formation of a currency basket tailored to the needs of individuals.
最终，在我提出的模型中，会形成一个适合个人需求的货币篮子。
1:25:38 But I won’t avoid the discussion.
但我不会回避讨论。
Today, there is currency competition.
今天，存在货币竞争。
If, for instance, today in Argentina, you want to make transactions in any currency, you can do it and it’s allowed.
例如，今天在阿根廷，如果您想以任何货币进行交易，您都可以做到并且是被允许的。
Today there is currency competition.
今天存在货币竞争。
The other thing we talk about is the concept of, let’s suppose we were discussing dollarization.
我们谈论的另一件事是概念，假设我们正在讨论美元化。
We talk about endogenous dollarization.
我们谈论内生美元化。
The first point is that you need to clean up the central bank.
第一点是需要清理央行。
We had to deal with the issue of the CIRA.
我们必须处理 CIRA 的问题。
That is the central bank’s commercial debt, which was $50 billion.
这就是央行的商业债务，价值 500 亿美元。
We still have to resolve the dividend problem of $10 billion.
我们还需要解决100亿美元的股息问题。
And in the meantime, we did a write-off and cleaned up the central bank’s balance sheet by $45 billion.
与此同时，我们冲销并清理了央行的资产负债表 450 亿美元。
So, you can’t just close the central bank if it is bankrupt, because you need to redeem the whole central bank debt, which is about the issuing of money and the interest-bearing liabilities.
所以，如果央行破产了，你不能直接关闭它，因为你需要赎回整个央行债务，这涉及到货币发行和有息负债。
So once we finished with the interest-bearing liabilities, it’ll leave us with the monetary base.
因此，一旦我们完成了有息负债，我们就剩下了基础货币。
1:26:40 Therefore, today we have a regime where the amount of money is fixed, the monetary base is not growing, and as demand for money increases, since people can use dollars, they don’t need to go and sell the dollars and make the peso appreciate, but they can do transactions in dollars.
因此，今天我们有一个制度，货币数量是固定的，货币基础不增长，随着货币需求的增加，由于人们可以使用美元，他们不需要去出售美元，使比索升值，而是可以用美元进行交易。
So as the economy grows, you will have a greater share of dollars relative to pesos.
因此，随着经济的增长，相对于比索，您将拥有更大的美元份额。
And at some point, the amount of pesos compared to the dollars will be so huge relatively that closing down the central bank will be done easily, which means this is working.
到了某个时候，比索相对于美元的数量将会非常巨大，以至于关闭央行将很容易完成，这意味着这是有效的。
1:27:19 Of course, if you were to give me the money right now, I would go ahead and dollarize.
当然，如果你现在给我钱，我会继续美元化。
I’d have no problem with that.
我对此没有意见。
For example, I did have a proposal for this, and this could have worked, because the largest creditor of the Argentine treasury is the central bank, but central bank bonds were trading at 20 cents.
例如，我确实有一个建议，这可能会奏效，因为阿根廷财政部最大的债权人是央行，但央行债券的交易价格为20美分。
If I had sold those bonds at 20 cents and nowadays they are trading between 60 and 70.
如果我以 20 美分的价格出售这些债券，那么现在它们的交易价格在 60 到 70 美分之间。
With the whole bunch of Neanderthals that are the opposition, who besides being ignorant in economics, also have bad intentions, I would be in jail today.
一群尼安德特人是反对派，他们除了对经济无知之外，还怀有恶意，我今天就会入狱。
Let me ask you a very important, difficult question.
让我问你一个非常重要又困难的问题。
1:28:05 I’m a huge fan, have been my whole life, of Diego Maradona and Messi.
我一生都是迭戈·马拉多纳和梅西的超级粉丝。
So who, to you, is the greatest football player of all time?
那么，对您来说，谁是有史以来最伟大的足球运动员？
The way I see it, I have seen Maradona play, all right?
在我看来，我看过马拉多纳踢球，好吗？
1:28:18 I saw Maradona play in the past, I used to watch him, and I saw him during his last year at Argentinos Juniors before Boca Juniors in the year 1980, and I saw him in ’81.
我过去看过马拉多纳的比赛，我曾经看过他，我在阿根廷青年队的最后一年见过他，然后是1980年的博卡青年队，我在81年见过他。
Playing for Boca, I saw him play in the youth selection in Japan in 1979.
1979年，我在博卡队效力时，在日本青年选拔赛中看到了他的表现。
I truly have immensely enjoyed the talent of Maradona, but without a doubt, the best soccer player of all time, not just from Argentina, of all time, even better than Pelé, is Messi, of course.
我确实非常欣赏马拉多纳的才华，但毫无疑问，有史以来最好的足球运动员，不仅仅是来自阿根廷，甚至比贝利更好的当然是梅西。
1:29:04 There is an article, which is quite old already now, titled Messi is Impossible.
有一篇文章，现在已经很老了，标题是《梅西不可能》。
And it looks at all of the positions a soccer player plays in, that is all positions a soccer player can play in from midfield forward.
它着眼于足球运动员所踢的所有位置，即足球运动员可以从中场前锋踢的所有位置。
And the most incredible thing is that Messi is the best in each of those positions.
最令人难以置信的是，梅西在每个位置上都是最好的。
You can be the best in one or two positions.
你可以在一两个职位上成为最好的。
You see Cristiano Ronaldo, for example, was very good in two areas of the game.
例如，你会看到克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多在比赛的两个方面都非常出色。
So much so that he was almost like Messi, but he didn’t take part in the rest.
以至于他几乎像梅西一样，但他没有参加其余的比赛。
However, Messi is the best one in all respects.
然而，从各方面来看，梅西都是最好的。
But at that time, of course.
但在那个时候，当然。
Nowadays, he’s an older player, right?
如今，他已经是一名老球员了，对吧？
1:30:00 He is an older player, right?
他是个老球员了，对吧？
And I’m not sure whether he can still keep that performance on all fronts, but honestly, I have never in my life seen a player like Messi.
我不确定他是否还能在各方面保持这样的表现，但说实话，我一生中从未见过像梅西这样的球员。
I have never seen no one like him, for real.
我从来没有见过像他这样的人，真的。
Considering the goal average in the days of Pelé compared to Messi’s golden era and his career now, the number of equivalent goals is much greater than that of Pelé, therefore, without a doubt, Messi is the greatest soccer player of all time.
考虑到贝利时代的平均进球数与梅西的黄金时代和他现在的职业生涯相比，同等进球数远多于贝利，因此，毫无疑问，梅西是有史以来最伟大的足球运动员。
No one compares to him.
没有人能与他相比。
But it’s not just the numbers or the World Cup win, it’s the moments of genius on the field.
但这不仅仅是数字或世界杯的胜利，而是球场上的天才时刻。
1:30:44 Messi is unlike any other in that way.
梅西在这方面与其他人不同。
Messi does things that seem technically impossible, they seem physically impossible.
梅西所做的事情在技术上似乎不可能，在身体上也似乎不可能。
1:30:56 The moves he makes don’t respect human logic.
他的举动不尊重人类逻辑。
It’s like watching Usain Bolt run.
这就像看尤塞恩·博尔特跑步一样。
It doesn’t feel possible.
感觉不可能。
He moves in a way that doesn’t respect human logic, am I right?
他的行为方式不尊重人类逻辑，对吗？
Did you watch the 1986 World Cup with Maradona, with the hand of God, with the game against England?
你看过1986年世界杯马拉多纳在上帝之手下对阵英格兰的比赛吗？
1:31:16 What was that like?
那是什么样子的？
Oh, yes, I do remember that very well.
哦，是的，我记得很清楚。
1:31:24 We watched it in the home of my godfather and saw how he did his gambit and dodged the England team.
我们在我教父的家里观看了比赛，看到了他如何巧妙地躲避英格兰队。
It was absolutely indescribable.
这绝对是难以形容的。
There’s no way to put it into words.
没有办法用语言来表达。
It’s as if I asked you to describe for me the love you have for your partner.
就好像我要求你向我描述你对伴侣的爱。
You can’t do that, right?
你不能那样做，对吧？
It’s something wonderful.
这是一件美妙的事情。
You can’t describe it, you cannot put it into words.
你无法描述它，你无法用语言表达它。
There are things where words just seem to fail, am I right?
有些事情似乎无法用语言来表达，对吗？
I really think that there are times when humans, or some humans, not all of them, actually.
我真的认为有时人类，或者某些人，而不是所有人，实际上。
Some humans have the privilege of being able to vibrate closer to God.
有些人有幸能够更接近上帝。
1:32:35 Some Puccini arias, for example, when you listen to them, when you listen to the famous aria from La Rondine, or the famous aria from Gianni Schicchi, you get the feeling that he was getting sat dictated by God.
比如说普契尼的一些咏叹调，当你听他们的时候，当你听《La Rondine》著名的咏叹调，或者《Gianni Schicchi》著名的咏叹调时，你会感觉他是在听上帝的口授。
How can you put that into words?
你怎么能用语言表达它呢？
You can’t.
你不能。
There’s no way you do that.
你不可能那样做。
Those moments where we humans, that we have the privilege, I say it as human beings, because I’m speaking from that perspective.
在那些我们人类拥有特权的时刻，我以人类的身份这么说，因为我是从这个角度说话的。
I say this only as an admirer.
我只是作为一个崇拜者才这么说。
1:33:14 Some human beings have the ability to vibrate so close to God that you can’t describe it, you can only enjoy it.
有些人有能力与上帝如此接近，以至于你无法描述它，你只能享受它。
This is why, in Judaism, they don’t use the name of God, of the Creator, because how could you put in words something like that?
这就是为什么在犹太教中，他们不使用上帝、造物主的名字，因为你怎么能用这样的词来表达呢？
And I believe those are times when us humans connect closer to the Creator and create unique things, you cannot describe them.
我相信，在那个时代，我们人类与造物主的联系更加紧密，并创造出你无法描述的独特事物。
There are no words to describe that.
没有言语可以形容这一点。
The only thing you can do is enjoy it and be thankful that you can witness it.
你唯一能做的就是享受它并感谢你能见证它。
You were a great footballer yourself in your youth.
你年轻时就是一名伟大的足球运动员。
1:33:56 You were a goalkeeper.
你是一名守门员。
Many people would say that’s the toughest and the most important position in football.
很多人会说这是足球界最艰难、最重要的位置。
Maybe you could speak about that experience and, in general, what’s harder; being a goalkeeper or president?
也许你可以谈谈那段经历，以及总的来说，什么是更困难的？当守门员还是主席？
Lovely question.
可爱的问题。
1:34:13 Well, indeed, I used to be a goalkeeper, but I’m not so sure about whether I was any good.
嗯，确实，我曾经是一名守门员，但我不太确定自己是否优秀。
But the experience of having been a goalkeeper is very valuable.
但当守门员的经历是非常宝贵的。
First, the goalkeeper is the only player that can use their hands, in a certain sector of the pitch in the area.
首先，守门员是在球场特定区域内唯一可以使用双手的球员。
The other thing is that he’s also the only player who dresses differently.
另一件事是，他也是唯一一个穿着不同的球员。
Moreover, their training is a solitary one.
而且，他们的训练是单独的。
And the most important, it is the very climax, the goal, right?
最重要的是，这是高潮，目标，对吗？
When the goal is called by their team, everyone is celebrating on the other side and the goalkeeper is on his own.
当他们的球队宣布进球时，对方的每个人都在庆祝，而守门员则独自一人。
1:35:18 And at the same time, he’s the one who suffers the most when a goal is scored, because he gets the direct impact.
与此同时，当进球进球时，他是受苦最深的人，因为他受到了直接的影响。
In fact, when the goalkeeper makes a mistake, it’s an own goal.
事实上，当守门员犯错时，这是一个乌龙球。
Imagine a teammate scores a wonderful goal like the one Maradona did.
想象一下，一位队友像马拉多纳那样打进了精彩的进球。
It’s marvelous.
太棒了。
And that’s just one goal.
这只是一个目标。
And imagine the goalkeeper picks up the ball, and then, if they bring it into the area wrongly, it’s like two goals, it’s a complete lack of proportion.
想象一下，守门员捡起球，然后，如果他们错误地把球带入禁区，就像两个进球一样，完全缺乏比例。
So, therefore, and this, in my opinion, makes goalkeepers have a very strong temperament.
所以，所以，而这，在我看来，使得守门员有一种非常强烈的气质。
1:36:03 They’re used to being alone, and power is precisely that.
他们习惯了孤独，而权力正是如此。
Because when you make decisions, you are on your own.
因为当你做出决定时，你是自己的。
And not just that, but also when you have a responsibility, like that of a president, when you make a decision, it has an impact on millions of people.
不仅如此，当你有责任时，就像总统一样，当你做出决定时，它会对数百万人产生影响。
So just like goalkeepers, if you make a mistake and score an own goal, and in this context it’s negative consequences for millions of people.
所以就像守门员一样，如果你犯了一个错误并打进了乌龙球，在这种情况下，这会给数百万人带来负面后果。
Therefore, that has been part of the university of life that has given me the tools to be president today.
因此，这一直是大学生活的一部分，为我提供了今天担任校长的工具。
That is my training in economics, my training in liberalism, having been a goalkeeper, and also having had a very tough childhood.
这就是我在经济学方面的训练，我在自由主义方面的训练，当过守门员，也有一个非常艰难的童年。
How hard is it?
有多难？
1:36:59 What’s been the personal toll of carrying the hope of a nation on your shoulders?
将国家的希望扛在肩上对个人造成了哪些损失？
Well, being defamed, insulted, and attacked every single day, but again, there’s no point in life if it’s not with freedom.
好吧，每天都被诽谤、侮辱和攻击，但同样，如果没有自由，生活就没有意义。
1:37:07 So, like Sylvester Stallone once said, “The secret to life is to carry on in spite of the blows you get, the punches you take.” And fortunately, we have been able to carry on in spite of the blows, both coming at us from in front and from behind our backs, because it have been more honest if we had been attacked directly.
因此，就像西尔维斯特·史泰龙曾经说过的那样，“生活的秘诀就是无论受到打击、承受打击，都要坚持下去。”幸运的是，尽管有来自前面和背后的打击，我们仍然能够继续前进，因为如果我们是直接受到攻击的话，那就更诚实了。
But well, in Argentina politics and the mass media, they do love to attack behind your back.
但是，在阿根廷政治和大众媒体中，他们确实喜欢在背后攻击你。
What role has God played in your life?
神在你的生命中扮演什么角色？
1:37:57 And who is God?
上帝是谁？
Well, faith, I’d say, has been a very fundamental element.
嗯，我想说，信仰是一个非常基本的要素。
1:38:04 And especially in recent times, during which I’ve become actively involved, particularly in the teachings of Judaism and in the study of the Torah.
尤其是最近一段时间，我积极参与其中，特别是犹太教的教义和《托拉》的研究。
This has given me, let’s say, a huge background to face the many adversities which I’ve encountered and had to overcome in the last few years.
可以说，这给了我一个巨大的背景来面对过去几年中我遇到并必须克服的许多逆境。
And as to who God is, He’s the Creator, the Maker.
至于神是谁，他是创造者、创造者。
I call Him, The One.
我称他为“独一者”。
What is a better guide for humanity; the invisible hand of the market or the hand of God?
什么是更好的人类指南？市场看不见的手还是上帝之手？
They’re perfectly in sync.
他们完全同步。
Well enough.
好吧。
1:39:03 Again, going back to your youth, you were a lead singer in a rock band.
再次回到你的青年时代，你是一个摇滚乐队的主唱。
Who’s the greatest rock star of all time?
谁是有史以来最伟大的摇滚明星？
Okay.
好的。
1:39:12 Well, the way I see it, the most amazing rock singer in history of mankind was definitely Elvis Presley.
嗯，在我看来，人类历史上最令人惊叹的摇滚歌手绝对是埃尔维斯·普雷斯利。
And my favorite band is the Rolling Stones.
我最喜欢的乐队是滚石乐队。
So I also greatly admire Mick Jagger, and I still have this dream of getting to meet him in person.
所以我也非常钦佩米克·贾格尔，并且我仍然有这个梦想，能够亲自见到他。
How fun would it be to play together with the Stones?
和石头们一起玩该有多有趣？
That would be a big, big dream.
那将是一个很大很大的梦想。
1:39:45 Don’t get my hopes up, because I set goals and then I go and achieve them.
不要抱太大希望，因为我设定目标，然后去实现它们。
Well, I’m close friends with a band that opens for the Stones, so I would love to see this happen.
嗯，我是滚石乐队开场乐队的亲密朋友，所以我很乐意看到这一切发生。
Oh, well, that would be great.
哦，好吧，那就太好了。
1:40:00 Or we could also watch the whole concert from the stage.
或者我们也可以在舞台上观看整个音乐会。
I can’t keep ruining the Rolling Stones’ music.
我不能继续毁掉滚石乐队的音乐。
I already had a tribute band and did quite a lot of damage to their music.
我已经有一支致敬乐队，并对他们的音乐造成了很大的损害。
How much does your rock star roots define your approach to politics, to life?
你的摇滚明星根源在多大程度上决定了你的政治和生活态度？
1:40:16 Do you see yourself as a showman in part?
您认为自己在某种程度上是一个表演者吗？
Of course.
当然。
1:40:25 Absolutely.
绝对地。
My idea is that, when you attend one of our events, it feels like going to a Rolling Stones concert.
我的想法是，当您参加我们的一项活动时，感觉就像去听一场滚石乐队音乐会。
In fact, in one of my most recent performances at Luna Park, I even had the pleasure of singing in front of 10,000 people.
事实上，在我最近在月神公园的一场演出中，我什至有幸在 10,000 人面前唱歌。
It’s on YouTube.
它在 YouTube 上。
No, sorry, not on YouTube, it’s on my Instagram feed.
不，抱歉，不是在 YouTube 上，而是在我的 Instagram 动态上。
At that event, I sang a song called Panic Show, and the song starts by saying, “Hi, everybody.
在那次活动中，我唱了一首叫做《Panic Show》的歌曲，歌曲开头是这样的：“大家好。
I am the lion.”
我是狮子。”
Your intensity and passion have earned you the nickname El Loco, the madman.
你的热情和热情为你赢得了“El Loco”（疯子）的绰号。
1:41:06 Do you think some madness is necessary to challenge the powerful establishment?
您认为挑战强大的机构需要一些疯狂吗？
Well, maybe it’s a matter of perspective.
好吧，也许这是一个视角问题。
1:41:19 It could be the other way around, that everyone else is crazy by living in a way contrary to the ideas of freedom.
也可能是相反的情况，其他人都因为以违背自由理念的方式生活而变得疯狂。
And so, maybe the sane person who wants to fix that is then considered a madman.
因此，也许想要解决这个问题的理智人会被认为是疯子。
Anyway, the nickname doesn’t bother me at all.
无论如何，这个绰号根本不困扰我。
In fact, I even enjoy it, because I’ve been called like that since I was 10 years old, so it’s not something that particularly bothers me, because it’s a nickname that…
事实上，我什至很喜欢它，因为我从十岁起就被这样称呼了，所以这并不是什么特别困扰我的事情，因为这是一个昵称……
Well, it has been used for many years, but actually, if I present to you the case of San Martin, when he said he was going to cross the Andes to liberate not only Argentina, not only our country, but also Chile and Peru, and people called him crazy.
嗯，这个词已经用了很多年了，但实际上，如果我向你们介绍圣马丁的例子，当他说他要穿越安第斯山脉不仅要解放阿根廷，不仅要解放我们的国家，还要解放智利和秘鲁，人们称他疯了。
1:42:13 Imagine if you had tried and spoken with, I don’t know, Michelangelo, you would have called him crazy too.
想象一下，如果你尝试与米开朗基罗交谈，我不知道，你也会说他疯了。
Or if you had talked to, I don’t know, hundreds of people who have changed the world, surely they would have thought that Einstein was crazy and so on, the list would be infinite.
或者，如果你和数百名改变了世界的人交谈过，我不知道，他们肯定会认为爱因斯坦疯了等等，这个名单将是无限的。
So, what is the difference between a madman and a genius?
那么，疯子和天才有什么区别呢？
Success.
成功。
Let me ask you about the market.
我想问一下市场的情况。
1:42:45 It’s so interesting, from your view of the world, how powerful the market is at figuring out what’s best for society.
这太有趣了，从你的世界观来看，市场在找出对社会最有利的方面有多么强大。
Why do you think the market works so well as a guide for humanity?
您认为为什么市场对人类具有如此好的指导作用？
One must first understand what the market is.
首先要明白什么是市场。
1:43:03 Simply put, the market is a process of voluntary exchange, where individuals cooperate through the transfer of property rights, in which private property is upheld.
简单地说，市场是一个自愿交换的过程，个人通过产权转让进行合作，维护私有财产权。
This is the system that drives the allocation of resources.
这是驱动资源配置的系统。
In essence, socialism, and this is what Mises condemns in his book, Socialism, shows that without private property, prices cease to exist and therefore resources are diverted.
从本质上讲，社会主义（这就是米塞斯在其著作《社会主义》中所谴责的）表明，如果没有私有财产，价格就不复存在，因此资源就会被转移。
Why don’t you think it’s the same to make a road of asphalt or gold?
你为什么不认为用沥青或黄金铺路是一样的呢？
Why not make it of gold?
为什么不用金子做呢？
Because you have an understanding of economic calculation, you have an idea of prices in your mind.
因为你了解经济计算，所以你心里就有价格的概念。
So, in this context, if there is no private property, there are no prices, and as a result, the free market capitalism is the best mechanism ever developed by humankind for resource allocation.
所以，在这个背景下，如果没有私有财产，就没有价格，因此，自由市场资本主义是人类有史以来发展起来的最好的资源配置机制。
1:44:13 This also implies that markets must be free.
这也意味着市场必须是自由的。
Free from state intervention, because when the state intervenes, it creates interference.
不受国家干预，因为当国家干预时，它就会造成干扰。
And markets need to allow free entry and exit, what we call competition.
市场需要允许自由进入和退出，即我们所说的竞争。
However, it’s better to understand competition in the sense described by Israel Gerstner, one of the foremost figures of the Austrian school.
然而，最好从奥地利学派最重要人物之一伊斯雷尔·格斯特纳（Israel Gerstner）所描述的意义上来理解竞争。
Or in the neoclassical framework as William Baumel understood it, which was the concept of free entry and exit in so-called contestable markets.
或者按照威廉·鲍梅尔所理解的新古典主义框架，即所谓可竞争市场的自由进入和退出的概念。
And also, let’s talk about what pertains to the division of labor and social co-operation.
另外，我们来谈谈分工和社会合作。
1:44:57 The most wonderful thing about capitalism is that you can only be successful by serving others with better quality goods at a better price.
资本主义最美妙的一点是，只有以更优惠的价格为他人提供更优质的商品，你才能取得成功。
If you are successful in the free market capitalism, you are a hero, you are a social benefactor, you are a prosperity machine.
如果你在自由市场资本主义中取得成功，你就是英雄，你就是社会捐助者，你就是繁荣机器。
So the better you do, the better it is for society.
所以你做得越好，对社会就越好。
This is very important.
这非常重要。
I remember when I had my first meeting with Elon Musk, and this made me admire him greatly, and this is something my sister commented on too.
我记得第一次见到埃隆·马斯克的时候，我对他非常佩服，我姐姐也这么评价过。
1:45:38 Elon Musk told me something he does every day.
埃隆·马斯克告诉我他每天都会做的事情。
He wakes up every morning thinking about what problem he could fix for humanity.
他每天早上醒来都会思考他可以为人类解决什么问题。
That’s amazing.
太棒了。
Of course, what is the counterpart?
当然，对应的是什么？
Being successful.
取得成功。
Therefore, in that sense, and moreover in my view on how the system works, on how the market works, market failures do not exist.
因此，从这个意义上说，而且在我看来，关于系统如何运作、市场如何运作，市场失灵是不存在的。
That is to say, that is a problem.
也就是说，这是一个问题。
A problem for neoclassical economies because of the mathematical tools they’ve used to develop economic analysis.
对于新古典经济来说，这是一个问题，因为他们使用数学工具来进行经济分析。
But actually, it’s not a real issue in everyday life, it’s a problem in the minds of economists.
但实际上，这不是日常生活中的真正问题，而是经济学家头脑中的问题。
In fact, my latest book called Capitalism, Socialism, and the Neoclassical Trap deals precisely with this issue.
事实上，我的新书《资本主义、社会主义和新古典主义陷阱》正是讨论了这个问题。
Yeah, you’ve outlined these ideas in Capitalism, Socialism, and the Neoclassical Trap.
是的，您在《资本主义、社会主义和新古典主义陷阱》中概述了这些想法。
1:46:40 So the trap is that there’s no such thing as a middle ground.
所以陷阱是不存在中间立场之类的东西。
It’s either capitalism, socialism, and every middle ground ends up in a state of socialism.
要么是资本主义，要么是社会主义，每一个中间立场最终都会陷入社会主义状态。
Well, actually, that is what Mises said.
嗯，事实上，米塞斯就是这么说的。
1:46:55 He said that there are only two systems; free enterprise capitalism and socialism.
他说只有两个系统；自由企业资本主义和社会主义。
And he also pointed out, and this is proven in Hayek’s book, the Road to Serfdom, that any middle ground solution is unstable in terms of capitalism, meaning it tends towards socialism.
他还指出，这一点在哈耶克的《通往奴役之路》一书中得到了证明，任何中间立场的解决方案就资本主义而言都是不稳定的，这意味着它倾向于社会主义。
So when you implement an intervention, it causes government failure, which then triggers further intervention, setting up a trap that results in more and more intervention.
因此，当你实施干预时，就会导致政府失灵，进而引发进一步的干预，设置一个陷阱，导致越来越多的干预。
And in this context, the neoclassicals, with their market failure theory, are in fact dealing with problems that are fundamentally mathematical.
在这种背景下，新古典主义者及其市场失灵理论实际上正在处理本质上是数学的问题。
Rather than making the world a better place, they have, if you will, been instrumental in increasing the levels of intervention.
如果你愿意的话，他们并没有让世界变得更美好，而是在提高干预水平方面发挥了重要作用。
Let me tell you something.
让我告诉你一件事。
1:47:51 Well, I have an economist as chairman of the President’s Advisory Council, Dr. Demian Reidel, who studied here at Harvard University and completed his PhD, was mentored by Kenneth Rogoff, the American economist.
嗯，我有一位经济学家担任总统顾问委员会主席，德米安·雷德尔博士，他在哈佛大学学习并完成了博士学位，受到美国经济学家肯尼思·罗格夫的指导。
And Rogoff has said that Dr. Reidel was his best student.
罗格夫曾表示，里德尔博士是他最好的学生。
Nowadays, we’re actually working with Dr. Reidel specifically on all these issues that arise from the interventions proposed by the mainstream, such as the so-called correction of market failures.
如今，我们实际上正在与里德尔博士专门合作解决由主流提出的干预措施引起的所有这些问题，例如所谓的市场失灵纠正。
And a few days ago, he conducted a survey of search algorithms and policy recommendations, and that resulted in a map painted from red to blue.
几天前，他对搜索算法和政策建议进行了调查，结果是一张从红色到蓝色的地图。
1:49:03 And well, the redder it was, the more it was linked to socialism, there was an intermediate thing that was yellow, and blue was free market ideas.
好吧，它越红，它与社会主义的联系就越紧密，有一个中间的东西是黄色的，蓝色是自由市场思想。
And one of the things he discovered, as part of that graph or chart, was that the largest number of policy recommendations, scandalously, are actually left-leaning.
作为该图表的一部分，他发现的一件事是，令人震惊的是，最大数量的政策建议实际上是左倾的。
So that is the empirical evidence of what I pointed out in the book, Capitalism, Socialism, and the Neoclassical Trap.
这就是我在《资本主义、社会主义和新古典主义陷阱》一书中指出的经验证据。
You mentioned your four-legged children.
你提到了你的四足孩子。
1:49:46 What have you learned about life from your dogs?
你从你的狗身上学到了什么关于生活的知识？
Well, from my four-legged children, I have learned unconditional love.
嗯，从我的四足孩子身上，我学到了无条件的爱。
1:49:54 In fact, well, my name in Hebrew means loyal friend, faithful friend, and on the Chinese horoscope, I am dog.
事实上，我的名字在希伯来语中的意思是忠诚的朋友，忠实的朋友，而在中国的星座中，我是狗。
And if there’s one thing that defines me is loyalty, being decent.
如果说定义我的一件事就是忠诚，那就是正派。
And those virtues, you can find them in those wonderful beings that dogs are, who love unconditionally.
而这些美德，你可以在狗这些奇妙的生物身上找到它们，它们无条件地爱着。
In fact, they are superior beings, spiritually speaking in my case, because I don’t forget or forgive those who have harmed me.
事实上，就我而言，从精神上来说，他们是优越的存在，因为我不会忘记或原谅那些伤害过我的人。
That is to say, all those who have insulted, defamed me, and criticized me, I remember each one of them, but I don’t have the greatness needed to forgive them.
也就是说，所有侮辱过我、诽谤过我、批评过我的人，我都记得，但我没有足够的伟大去原谅他们。
On the topic of loyalty in politics, I’m sure there’s been a lot of people, some people, who have betrayed you.
说到政治忠诚这个话题，我相信有很多人，有些人背叛了你。
1:51:04 Does that hurt your heart?
这会伤害你的心吗？
It depends, because you sometimes think that you can expect some people to be loyal, and if they betray you, of course that hurts.
这要看情况，因为有时你认为你可以期望有些人忠诚，如果他们背叛你，那当然会很痛苦。
1:51:17 But some people, you actually don’t expect anything from them, so if there’s betrayal, you won’t be annoyed or feel bad, because you owe it to someone who didn’t share your values.
但有些人，你实际上并不期望从他们身上得到任何东西，所以如果发生背叛，你不会生气或感到难过，因为你欠那些不认同你价值观的人。
But politics does have that.
但政治确实有这一点。
Sometimes, many of the people you may come across don’t have the values you advocate for, but it’s cost benefit.
有时，您可能遇到的许多人并不具有您所倡导的价值观，但这就是成本效益。
You need to let the ship sail on.
你需要让船继续航行。
Or would you rather let it sink?
或者你宁愿让它沉没？
That’s not my case.
那不是我的情况。
I fight until the end.
我战斗到最后。
There are traitors, but that’s part of politics.
有叛徒，但这是政治的一部分。
And that’s not my line, but of course, they do exist.
这不是我的观点，但当然，它们确实存在。
There are a lot of people who admire your revolutionary spirit.
钦佩你的革命精神的人很多。
1:52:23 What advice would you give them, maybe young people, on how to live a life like yours and have an impact on the world, like you have begun to do?
您会给他们（也许是年轻人）什么建议，让他们如何过上像您这样的生活并像您已经开始做的那样对世界产生影响？
I didn’t do this thinking about having an impact on the world.
我这样做并不是为了对世界产生影响。
1:52:40 I have defined what makes me happy and I live according to that.
我已经定义了什么让我快乐，并且我按照它生活。
I live consistently by that.
我始终以此为生。
And most importantly, I would say never give up.
最重要的是，我想说永远不要放弃。
Moreover, and above all, never be half-hearted.
此外，最重要的是，永远不要三心二意。
I would rather cry because I failed, rather than not crying because I never tried.
我宁愿因为失败而哭泣，也不愿因为从未尝试过而不哭。
I’m a perfectionist, so when I do err, of course, I have a bad time.
我是一个完美主义者，所以当我犯错时，我当然会过得很糟糕。
But still, I prefer to go and get things done.
但我仍然更喜欢去完成事情。
If it goes wrong, it’s part of life, but I will never have to regret not having done what I thought needed to be done at that moment.
如果出了问题，那也是生活的一部分，但我永远不会后悔当时没有做我认为需要做的事情。
What gives you hope about the future of Argentina and the future of humanity?
是什么让您对阿根廷的未来和人类的未来充满希望？
Well, the fact that, thanks to social media and to the whole tech revolution going on, every day, more and more people are becoming aware of how important freedom is to live.
事实上，由于社交媒体和整个技术革命的不断进行，每天都有越来越多的人开始意识到生活自由的重要性。
1:53:56 To live in peace and prosperity.
生活在和平与繁荣之中。
And I believe, even though bureaucrats and the elites fight untiringly to enslave us, a wave of freedom has been unleashed, which, if we do wage the fight, we’ll have a much better world.
我相信，尽管官僚和精英不遗余力地为奴役我们而斗争，但自由的浪潮已经释放出来，如果我们真的进行斗争，我们将拥有一个更加美好的世界。
What does your famous words of viva la libertad…
你的名言“viva la libertad”是什么意思？
1:54:42 How did that come about and what does it mean to you?
这是怎么发生的？这对你意味着什么？
Long live freedom, dammit.
自由万岁，该死。
1:54:49 That first started while I was giving my book presentations.
这首先是在我做我的图书演示时开始的。
At the end of my presentation, I would say, “Viva la libertad, carajo,” and that really stuck with me since then.
在演讲结束时，我会说，“自由万岁，卡拉霍”，从那时起，这句话就一直萦绕在我心头。
Without thinking about it, throughout my life, it was going to continue being present.
不假思索地，在我的一生中，它会继续存在。
In fact, today, my presentations, all of my speeches end with, “May God bless the Argentinians.
事实上，今天，我的演讲，我所有的演讲都以“愿上帝保佑阿根廷人”结束。
May the forces of heaven be with us.
愿天堂的力量与我们同在。
And viva la libertad, carajo.” The first phrase reflects my faith in God, fervently, and that I’m deeply thankful to the Creator for the wonderful things He has bestowed upon me daily.
自由万岁，卡拉霍。”第一句话反映了我对上帝的热切信仰，并深深感谢造物主每天赋予我的美好事物。
The second one has to do with a quote from the book of Maccabees 3:19, which says that “victory in battle doesn’t depend on the size of the army, but on the forces of heaven.” This has to do with the victory of the Jewish people, the Maccabeans, against the Greeks and how they recovered the temple.
第二个与《马加比书》3:19 中的一句话有关，其中说：“战争的胜利不取决于军队的规模，而取决于天上的力量。”这与犹太人马卡比人对希腊人的胜利以及他们如何收复圣殿有关。
And the last one, well, is my war cry.
最后一个是我的战争呐喊。
Well, there’s no better way to end it.
好吧，没有更好的方法来结束它。
1:56:15 Thank you for being a warrior for freedom, and thank you for talking today.
感谢您成为自由战士，也感谢您今天的发言。
Thank you very much indeed for your interview.
非常感谢您接受我们的采访。
1:56:21 And thank you for being so well-educated, because very often interviewers are not like that.
感谢你受过如此良好的教育，因为面试官通常不是这样的。
And you did have windows to play foul and you didn’t, and I recognize that and I thank you for that.
你确实有犯规的机会，但你没有，我认识到这一点，我为此感谢你。
Thank you.
谢谢。
1:56:39 Thanks for listening to this conversation with Javier Milei.
感谢您收听与哈维尔·米雷的对话。
To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description.
为了支持这个播客，请在说明中查看我们的赞助商。
And now, let me leave you with some words from George Orwell.
现在，让我向你们传达乔治·奥威尔的话。
“In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
“在一个充满欺骗的时代，说实话是一种革命行为。”感谢您的聆听，并希望下次再见。
本集资源与出处
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- 音频官方 MP3 直链来自 lexfridman.com 官方播客 RSS
- 官网Lex Fridman 官网本集页面
- 文稿官方 Transcript（lexfridman.com）
- 文稿HappyScribe 版文稿
