萨加尔·恩杰蒂：特朗普、MAGA、DOGE、奥巴马、罗斯福、肯尼迪、历史与政治

People need to go back and read the history of the first 100 days under FDR, the sheer amount of legislation that went through, his ability to bring Congress to heel and the Senate, he gets all this stuff through.

人们需要回顾一下罗斯福执政前 100 天的历史，了解所通过的大量立法，他让国会和参议院就范的能力，他让所有这些事情都通过了。

00:00 But as you and I know, legislation takes a long time to put into place, right?

但正如你我所知，立法需要很长时间才能落实，对吗？

We’ve had people starving on the streets all throughout 1933 under Hoover.

整个 1933 年，胡佛统治下，人们都在街头挨饿。

The difference was Hoover was seen as this do nothing joke who would dine nine course meals in the White House, and he is a filthy rich banker.

不同的是，胡佛被视为一个无所事事的笑话，他会在白宫吃九道菜，而且他是一个肮脏而富有的银行家。

FDR comes in there and every single day has fireside chats, he’s passing legislation, but more importantly, he tries various different programs, then they get ruled unconstitutional, he tries even more.

罗斯福来到那里，每天都会进行炉边谈话，他正在通过立法，但更重要的是，他尝试了各种不同的计划，然后它们被裁定违宪，他甚至尝试了更多。

00:36 So what does America take away from that?

那么美国从中得到了什么？

Every single time, if he gets knocked down, he comes back fighting.

每次，如果他被击倒，他都会回来战斗。

And that was, really, part of his character that he developed after he got polio.

这确实是他在患上小儿麻痹症后养成的性格的一部分。

And it gave him the strength to persevere through personally what he could transfer in his calm demeanor and his feeling of fight that America really got that spirit from him and was able to climb itself out of the Great Depression.

这给了他个人坚持下去的力量，他可以通过他的冷静举止和他的战斗感传递出什么，美国真正从他那里得到了这种精神，并能够摆脱大萧条。

He’s such an inspirational figure.

他是一个非常鼓舞人心的人物。

01:04 I think of Johnson and of Nixon, of Teddy Roosevelt, even of FDR, I can give you a laundry list of personal problems that all those people had.

我想到了约翰逊、尼克松、泰迪·罗斯福，甚至罗斯福，我可以给你列出所有这些人所面临的个人问题。

I think they had a really, really good judgment and I’m not sure how intrinsic their own personal character was to their exploration and thinking about the world.

我认为他们有非常非常好的判断力，我不确定他们自己的个人性格对他们探索和思考世界的影响有多大。

01:24 Actually, JFK might be our best example because he had the best judgment out of anybody in the room as a brand new president in the Cuban Missile Crisis, and he got us out and avoided nuclear war, which he deserves eternal credit for that.

事实上，肯尼迪可能是我们最好的例子，因为作为古巴导弹危机中的全新总统，他在房间里的任何人中都有最好的判断力，他让我们摆脱了核战争，他为此值得永远的赞誉。

01:37 And I encourage people out there, this is a brutal text, we were forced to read it in graduate school, The Essence of Decision by Graham Allison, I’m so thankful we did.

我鼓励人们，这是一篇残酷的文章，我们被迫在研究生院阅读格雷厄姆·艾利森的《决策的本质》，我很感激我们读了它。

It’s one of the foundations of political science because it lays out theories of how government works.

它是政治学的基础之一，因为它阐述了政府如何运作的理论。

01:52 People really need to understand Washington.

人们确实需要了解华盛顿。

Washington is a creature with traditions, with institutions that don’t care about you, they don’t even really care about the president.

华盛顿是一个有传统的生物，其机构不关心你，他们甚至不真正关心总统。

They have self-perpetuating mechanisms which have been done a certain way.

它们具有以某种方式实现的自我延续机制。

And it usually takes a great, shocking event like World War II to change really anything beyond the marginal.

通常需要像第二次世界大战这样的重大、令人震惊的事件才能真正改变任何超出边际范围的事情。

02:13 Every once in a while, you have a figure like Teddy Roosevelt who’s actually able to take peacetime presidency and transform the country, but it needs an extraordinary individual to get something like that done.

每隔一段时间，就会出现像泰迪·罗斯福这样的人物，他实际上能够在和平时期担任总统并改变国家，但需要一个非凡的个人才能完成这样的事情。

02:22 So the question around The Essence of Decision was the theory behind the Cuban Missile Crisis of how Kennedy arrived at his decision.

因此，围绕“决策的本质”的问题是古巴导弹危机背后的理论，即肯尼迪如何做出决定。

And there are various different schools of thought, but one of the things I love about the book is it presents a case for all three, the organizational theory, the bureaucratic politics theory, and then, kind of the great man theory as well.

存在着各种不同的思想流派，但我喜欢这本书的一件事是它为这三种理论提供了案例，即组织理论、官僚政治理论，还有伟人理论。

02:42 You and I could sit here and I could tell you a case about PT-109 and about how John F.

你和我可以坐在这里，我可以告诉你一个关于 PT-109 的案例以及约翰·肯尼迪 (John F.

Kennedy experienced World War II and how he literally swam miles with a wounded man’s life jacket strap in his teeth with a broken back and he saved him and he ended up on the cover of Life Magazine, he was a war hero.

肯尼迪经历了第二次世界大战，他是如何在背部骨折的情况下，用牙叼着一名伤员的救生衣带游了数英里，救了他，最终登上了《生活》杂志的封面，他是一位战争英雄。

02:59 And he was a deeply smart individual who wrote a book in 1939 called Why England Slept, which, to this day, is considered a text, which, at the moment, was able to describe in detail why Neville Chamberlain and the British political system arrived at the policy of appeasement.

他是一个非常聪明的人，在 1939 年写了一本名为《英国为何沉睡》的书，至今仍被认为是一本能够详细描述为什么内维尔·张伯伦和英国政治制度会采取绥靖政策的文本。

I actually have a original copy, it’s one of my most prized possessions.

我实际上有一份原版，它是我最珍贵的财产之一。

03:21 And from 1939…

从 1939 年开始……

Because this is a 23-year-old kid, who the fuck are you, John F.

因为这是一个 23 岁的孩子，你他妈是谁，约翰·F·肯尼迪 (John F.

Kennedy?

肯尼迪？

Turns out he’s a brilliant man.

事实证明他是一个才华横溢的人。

03:27 And another just favorite aside is that at the Potsdam Conference where Harry Truman is there with Stalin and everybody, so in the room at the same time, Harry S.

另一个最喜欢的事情是，在波茨坦会议上，哈里·杜鲁门与斯大林和所有人在一起，所以同时在房间里的，哈里·S·杜鲁门 (Harry S.

Truman, President of the United States, Dwight D.

杜鲁门，美国总统，德怀特·D.

Eisenhower, the general who will succeed him, 26-year-old John F.

艾森豪威尔的继任者是 26 岁的约翰·肯尼迪 (John F.

Kennedy as a journalist, and all three of those presidents were in the same room with Joseph Stalin and others.

肯尼迪作为一名记者，所有三位总统都与约瑟夫·斯大林和其他人在同一个房间。

And that’s the story of America right there.

这就是美国的故事。

It’s kind of amazing.

这真是太神奇了。

03:52 I’m going to give you one of the most depressing quotes, which is deeply true.

我要给你们讲一句最令人沮丧的名言，这句话是非常真实的。

Roger Ailes, who is a genius, shout out to The Loudest Voice in the Room by Gabriel Sherman.

天才罗杰·艾尔斯（Roger Ailes）对加布里埃尔·谢尔曼（Gabriel Sherman）的《房间里最响亮的声音》大喊大叫。

That book changed my life too because it really made me understand media.

那本书也改变了我的生活，因为它真正让我了解了媒体。

“People don’t want to be informed, they want to feel informed.”

“人们不想被告知，他们想要的是感觉被告知的感觉。”

The following is a conversation with Saagar Enjeti, his second time in the podcast.

以下是与 Saagar Enjeti 的对话，这是他第二次参加播客。

04:09 Saagar is a political commentator, journalist, co-host of Breaking Points with Krystal Ball and of The Realignment podcast with Marshall Kosloff.

Saagar 是一名政治评论员、记者、与 Krystal Ball 共同主持的 Breaking Points 节目以及与 Marshall Kosloff 共同主持的 The Realignment 播客。

Saagar is one of the most well-read people I’ve ever met.

萨加尔是我见过的最博览群书的人之一。

His love of history and the wisdom gained from reading thousands of history books radiates through every analysis he makes of the world.

他对历史的热爱以及从阅读数千本历史书籍中获得的智慧体现在他对世界的每一次分析中。

04:38 In this podcast, we trace out the history of the various ideological movements that led up to the current political moment.

在这个播客中，我们追溯了导致当前政治时刻的各种意识形态运动的历史。

In doing so, we mention a large number of amazing books.

在此过程中，我们提到了大量令人惊叹的书籍。

We’ll put a link to them in the description for those interested to learn more about each topic.

我们将在描述中添加指向它们的链接，以便有兴趣了解有关每个主题的更多信息。

04:56 This is the Lex Fridman podcast.

这是莱克斯·弗里德曼播客。

To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description.

为了支持它，请在说明中查看我们的赞助商。

And now, dear friends, here’s Saagar Enjeti.

现在，亲爱的朋友们，这是 Saagar Enjeti。

05:07 So let’s start with the obvious big question, why do you think Trump won?

那么，让我们从一个显而易见的大问题开始，你认为特朗普为何获胜？

Let’s break it down.

让我们来分解一下。

Before the election, you said that if Trump wins, it’s going to be because of immigration.

大选前，你说如果特朗普获胜，那将是因为移民。

So aside from immigration, what are the maybe less than obvious reasons that Trump won?

那么，除了移民问题之外，特朗普获胜还有哪些可能不太明显的原因呢？

Yes, we absolutely need to return to immigration, but without that, multifaceted explanation, let’s start with the easiest one.

是的，我们绝对需要回到移民问题，但如果没有多方面的解释，让我们从最简单的开始。

05:25 There has been a wave of anti-incumbent energy around the world.

世界各地掀起了一股反现任能量浪潮。

Financial Times chart recently went viral showing, so the first time, I think since World War II, possibly since 1905, I need to look at the data set, that all anti-incumbent parties all across the world suffered major defeats.

英国《金融时报》的图表最近疯传，所以我认为自二战以来，可能是自 1905 年以来，我第一次需要查看数据集，全世界所有反现任政党都遭受了重大失败。

So that’s a very, very high level analysis, and we can return to that if we talk about Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 because there were similar global precursors.

所以这是一个非常非常高水平的分析，如果我们谈论 2016 年唐纳德·特朗普的胜利，我们可以回到这一点，因为有类似的全球先兆。

05:56 The individual level in the United States, there’s a very simple explanation as well, which is that Joe Biden was very old, he was very unpopular, inflation was high.

美国个人层面，也有一个很简单的解释，就是拜登年纪很大，很不受欢迎，通货膨胀很高。

Inflation is one of the highest determiners of people switching their votes and of putting their primacy on that ahead of any other issue at the ballot box.

通货膨胀是人们改变选票并将其置于投票箱中任何其他问题之上的首要决定因素之一。

So that’s that.

就是这样。

06:12 But I think it’s actually much deeper, at a psychological level, for who America is and what it is.

但我认为，在心理层面上，美国是谁、它是什么，这实际上要深刻得多。

And fundamentally, I think what we’re going to spend a lot of time talking about today is the evolution of the modern left and its collapse in the Kamala Harris candidacy, and eventually, the loss to Donald Trump in the popular vote where, really, is like an apotheosis of several social forces.

从根本上说，我认为我们今天要花很多时间讨论的是现代左派的演变及其在卡马拉·哈里斯候选资格中的崩溃，以及最终在普选中输给唐纳德·特朗普，这实际上就像是几种社会力量的典范。

So we’re going to talk about The Great Awakening or so-called Awokening, which is very important to understanding all of this.

所以我们要谈论大觉醒或所谓的觉醒，这对于理解这一切非常重要。

06:42 There’s also really Donald Trump himself who is really one of the most unique individual American politicians that we’ve seen in decades.

还有唐纳德·特朗普本人，他确实是我们几十年来见过的最独特的美国政客之一。

At this point, Donald Trump’s victory makes him the most important and transformative figure in American politics since FDR.

至此，唐纳德·特朗普的胜利使他成为自罗斯福以来美国政坛最重要、最具变革性的人物。

And a thought process for the audience is in 2028, there will be an 18-year-old who’s eligible to vote who cannot remember a time when Donald J.

观众的思考过程是在 2028 年，将有一个有资格投票的 18 岁年轻人不记得唐纳德·J·特朗普 (Donald J.

Trump was not the central American figure.

特朗普不是美国的中心人物。

07:08 And there’s stories in World War II where troops were on the front line, some were 18, 19 years old, FDR died, and they literally said, “Well, who’s the president?” And they said, “Harry Truman, you dumb ass.” And they go, “Who?” They couldn’t conceive of a universe where FDR was not the president of the United States.

二战中有一些故事，军队在前线，有些人只有 18 岁、19 岁，罗斯福死了，他们真的说，“好吧，谁是总统？”他们说：“哈里·杜鲁门，你这个笨蛋。”他们问：“谁？”他们无法想象罗斯福不是美国总统的世界。

And Donald Trump, even during the Biden administration, he was the figure.

而唐纳德·特朗普，即使在拜登执政期间，他也是这样的人物。

Joe Biden defined his entire candidacy and his legacy around defeating this man, and obviously, he’s failed.

乔·拜登将他的整个候选资格和他的遗产定义为击败这个人，显然，他失败了。

We should talk a lot about Joe Biden as well for his own failed theories of the presidency.

我们还应该更多地谈论乔·拜登以及他自己失败的总统理论。

07:39 So I think at a macro level, it’s easy to understand.

所以我觉得从宏观上讲，还是很容易理解的。

At a basic level, inflation, it’s easy to understand.

从根本上讲，通货膨胀很容易理解。

But what I really hope that a lot of people can take away is how fundamentally unique Donald Trump is as a political figure and what he was able to do to realign American politics really forever.

但我真正希望很多人能够学到的是，唐纳德·特朗普作为一个政治人物有多么独特，以及他能够为美国政治的真正永久调整做出什么贡献。

In the white working class realignment originally of 2016, the activation, really, of a multiracial kind of working class coalition and of really splitting American lines along a single individual question of did you attend a four-year college degree institution or not?

在2016年最初的白人工人阶级重组中，实际上激活了一种多种族的工人阶级联盟，并且沿着一个单一的个人问题真正分裂了美国的界线：你是否上过四年制大学学位机构？

08:13 And this is a crazy thing to say, Donald Trump is one of the most racially depolarizing electoral figures in American history.

这是一件疯狂的事情，唐纳德·特朗普是美国历史上最种族去极化的选举人物之一。

We lived in 2016 at a time when racial groups really voted in blocks, Latinos, Blacks, whites.

我们生活在 2016 年，当时的种族群体确实是按街区投票的，拉丁裔、黑人、白人。

There was some, of course, division between the white working class and the white college educated, white collar workers.

当然，白人工人阶级和受过大学教育的白人白领工人之间存在一些分歧。

But by and large, you could pretty fairly say that Asians, Indians, everyone, 80, 90% were going to vote for the Democratic Party, Latinos as well.

但总的来说，你可以相当公平地说，亚洲人、印度人、每个人，80%、90% 的人都会投票给民主党，拉丁裔也是如此。

I’m born here in the state of Texas.

我出生在德克萨斯州。

George W.

乔治·W.

Bush shocked people when he won some 40% of the Latino vote.

当布什赢得大约 40% 的拉丁裔选票时，人们感到震惊。

Donald Trump just beat Kamala Harris with Latino men and he ran up the table for young men.

唐纳德·特朗普刚刚在拉丁裔男子比赛中击败了卡玛拉·哈里斯，并在年轻男子比赛中名列前茅。

08:59 So really, fundamentally, we have witnessed a full realignment in American politics, and that’s a really fundamental problem for the modern left.

所以，实际上，从根本上来说，我们目睹了美国政治的全面调整，这对现代左派来说是一个非常根本的问题。

It’s erased a lot of the conversation around gerrymandering, around the Electoral College, the so-called Electoral College bias towards Republicans.

它抹去了很多关于不公正划分选区、围绕选举团的讨论，即所谓的选举团对共和党的偏见。

Really, being able to win the popular vote for the first time since 2004 is shocking and landmark achievement by a Republican.

确实，能够自 2004 年以来首次赢得普选，对共和党来说是令人震惊且具有里程碑意义的成就。

09:24 In 2008, I have a book on my shelf and I always look at it to remind myself of how much things can change, James Carville, and it says 40 More Years, How Democrats Will Never Lose An Election Again.

2008年，我的书架上有一本书，我总是看着它来提醒自己事情可以改变多少，詹姆斯·卡维尔，书上写着“再过40年，民主党将永远不会再次输掉选举”。

2008, they wrote that book after the Obama coalition and the landslide.

2008年，他们在奥巴马联盟和压倒性胜利之后写了这本书。

And something I love so much about this country, people change their minds all the time.

我非常喜欢这个国家，人们总是改变主意。

09:46 I was born in 1992, I watched red states go blue.

我出生于 1992 年，我亲眼目睹了红色州变成蓝色州。

I’ve seen blue states go red.

我见过蓝色的州变成红色的。

I’ve seen swing states go red or blue.

我见过摇摆州变成红色或蓝色。

I’ve seen millions of people pick up and move, the greatest internal migration in the United States since World War II.

我亲眼目睹了数百万人搬家，这是二战以来美国最大规模的内部移民。

And it’s really inspiring because it’s a really dynamic, interesting place.

这真的很鼓舞人心，因为这是一个充满活力、有趣的地方。

And I love covering it and I love thinking about it, talking about it, talking to people.

我喜欢报道它，我喜欢思考它，谈论它，与人们交谈。

It’s awesome.

太棒了。

One of the reasons I’m a big fan of yours is you’re a student of history, and so, you’ve recommended a bunch of books to me.

我非常喜欢你的原因之一是你是历史系的学生，所以你向我推荐了很多书。

10:08 And they and others thread the different movements throughout American history.

他们和其他人将不同的运动贯穿美国历史。

Some movements take off and do hold power for a long time, some don’t.

有些运动会起飞并保持很长一段时间，有些则不然。

And some are started by a small number of people and are controlled by a small number of people, some are mass movements.

而有些是由少数人发起并受少数人控制的，有些是群众运动。

And it’s just fascinating to watch how those movements evolve, and then, fit themselves, maybe, into the constraints of a two-party system.

观察这些运动如何演变，然后如何适应两党制度的限制，真是令人着迷。

And I’d love to talk about the various perspectives of that.

我很想谈谈对此的各种观点。

So would it be fair to say that this election was turned into a kind of class struggle?

那么，可以说这次选举变成了一种阶级斗争吗？

Well, I won’t go that far because to say it’s a class struggle really implies that things fundamentally align on economic lines, and I don’t think that’s necessarily accurate.

好吧，我不会走那么远，因为说这是一场阶级斗争确实意味着事情从根本上与经济路线一致，但我认为这不一定准确。

10:51 Although, if that’s your lens, you could get there.

不过，如果那是你的镜头，你就可以到达那里。

So there’s a very big statistic going around right now where Kamala Harris increased her vote share and won households over $100,000 or more, and Donald Trump won households under 100,000.

因此，现在有一个非常大的统计数据，卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）增加了她的选票份额，并赢得了超过 10 万美元或更多的家庭，而唐纳德·特朗普则赢得了 10 万美元以下的家庭。

You could view that in an economic lens.

你可以从经济角度来看待这一点。

11:18 The problem again that I have is that that is much more a proxy for four-year college degree and for education.

我再次遇到的问题是，这更多地代表了四年制大学学位和教育。

And so, one of my favorite books is called Coming Apart by Charles Murray.

因此，我最喜欢的书之一是查尔斯·默里（Charles Murray）写的《分崩离析》。

And that book, really, really underscores how the cultural milieu that people swim in when they attend a four-year college degree and the trajectory of their life, not only on where they move to, who they marry, what type of grocery store they go to, their cultural, what television shows that they watch.

这本书确实非常强调了人们在获得四年制大学学位时所处的文化环境以及他们的生活轨迹，不仅包括他们搬到哪里、嫁给谁、去什么类型的杂货店、他们的文化、他们看什么电视节目。

11:47 One of my favorite questions from Charles Murray’s is called a Bubble Quiz.

查尔斯·默里（Charles Murray）提出的我最喜欢的问题之一是“泡泡测验”。

I encourage people to go take it by the way.

我鼓励人们顺便去接受它。

It asks you a question.

它问你一个问题。

It’s like what does the word Branson mean to you?

就像布兰森这个词对你来说意味着什么？

And it has a couple of answers.

它有几个答案。

One of them is Branson is Sir Richard Branson.

布兰森就是其中之一，理查德·布兰森爵士。

Number two is Branson, Missouri, which is like a country music tourist style destination.

第二名是密苏里州布兰森，它就像一个乡村音乐旅游风格的目的地。

Three is, it means nothing.

三是，没有任何意义。

So you are less in a bubble if you say country music.

所以如果你说乡村音乐，你就不那么陷入泡沫了。

And you’re very much in the bubble if you say Richard Branson.

如果你说理查德·布兰森，那你就完全陷入了泡沫之中。

And I remember taking that test for the first time, I go, “Obviously, Sir Richard Branson, Virgin Atlantic.

我记得第一次参加这项测试时，我说：“显然，维珍航空的理查德·布兰森爵士。

Like what?” And then, I was like, “Wait.” I’m like, “I’m in the bubble.”

比如什么？然后，我想，“等等。”我想，“我在泡沫中。”

12:20 And there are other things in there like can you name various different military ranks?

还有其他的东西，比如你能说出各种不同的军衔吗？

I can because I’m a history nerd, but the vast majority of college educated people don’t know anybody who served in the United States military, they don’t have family members who do…

我可以，因为我是一个历史书呆子，但绝大多数受过大学教育的人不认识任何在美国军队服役的人，他们的家人也没有……

The most popular shows in America are like The Big Bang Theory and NCIS, whereas people in our, probably, cultural milieu, our favorite shows are White Lotus, The Last of Us, this is prestige television with a very small audience, but high income, high education.

在美国最受欢迎的节目是《生活大爆炸》和《海军罪案调查处》，而在我们的文化环境中，我们最喜欢的节目是《白莲花》、《最后生还者》，这是一部观众很少但收入高、教育程度高的知名电视节目。

12:46 So the point is that culture really defines who we are as Americans, where we live.

所以重点是，文化真正定义了我们作为美国人的身份以及我们居住的地方。

And rural, urban is one way to describe it, but honestly, with the work from home revolution and more rich people and highly educated people moving to more rural suburban or areas they traditionally weren’t able to commute in, that’s changing.

农村、城市是描述它的一种方式，但老实说，随着在家工作革命以及更多富人和受过高等教育的人搬到更多的农村郊区或他们传统上无法通勤的地区，这种情况正在发生变化。

And so, really, the internet is everything.

所以，确实，互联网就是一切。

13:08 The stuff that you consume on the internet, the stuff that you spend your time doing, type of books you read, whether you read a book at all, frankly, whether you travel to Europe, whether you have a passport, all the things that you value in your life, that is the real cultural divide in America.

你在互联网上消费的东西，你花时间做的事情，你读的书的类型，你是否读过一本书，坦率地说，你是否去欧洲旅行，你是否有护照，你生活中所有你看重的东西，这就是美国真正的文化鸿沟。

And I actually think that’s what this revolution of Donald Trump was activating and bringing people to the polls, bringing a lot of those traditional working class voters of all races away from the Democratic Party along the lines of elitism, of sneering, and of a general cultural feeling that these people don’t understand me and my struggles in this life.

事实上，我认为这就是唐纳德·特朗普的这场革命所引发的，并让人们参加民意调查，让所有种族的许多传统工人阶级选民沿着精英主义、嘲笑和普遍文化感觉远离民主党，认为这些人不理解我和我今生的挣扎。

And so, the trivial formulation is the woke-ism and the anti woke-ism a movement?

那么，简单的表述是觉醒主义和反觉醒主义是一场运动吗？

Yeah.

是的。

So it’s not necessarily that Trump winning was a statement against woke-ism, it was the broader anti-elitism?

那么特朗普获胜并不一定是反对觉醒主义的声明，而是更广泛的反精英主义？

It’s difficult to say because I wouldn’t dismiss anti woke-ism or woke-ism as an explanation.

这很难说，因为我不会忽视反觉醒主义或觉醒主义作为解释。

13:57 But we need to understand the electoral impacts of woke.

但我们需要了解觉醒对选举的影响。

So there’s varying degrees of how you’re going to encounter, quote-unquote, “woke-ism,” and this is a very difficult thing to define.

因此，你会在不同程度上遇到“唤醒主义”，这是一件很难定义的事情。

So let me just try and break it down, which is there are the types of things that you’re going to interact with on a cultural basis.

因此，让我尝试将其分解，即您将在文化基础上与之互动的事物类型。

14:21 And what I mean by that is going to watch a TV show, and just for some reason, there’s like two trans characters.

我的意思是去看电视节目，出于某种原因，就像有两个跨性别角色。

And it’s never particularly explained why, they just are there.

从来没有特别解释过为什么，它们就在那里。

Or watching a commercial, and it’s the same thing.

或者看广告，也是一样的。

Watching, I don’t know, I remember I was watching, I think it was Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.

看，我不知道，我记得我在看，我想是疯狂多元宇宙中的奇异博士。

It was a terrible movie, by the way.

顺便说一句，这是一部糟糕的电影。

Don’t recommend it.

不推荐它。

But one of the characters, I think her name was like America and she wore a gay pride flag.

但其中一个角色，我认为她的名字就像美国，她戴着一面同性恋骄傲旗帜。

Look, many left-wingers would make fun of me for saying these things, but that is obviously a social agenda to the point as in they believe it is deeply acceptable that it’s used by Hollywood and cultural elites who really value those progress in sexual orientation and others and really believe it’s important to, quote-unquote, “showcase it for representation.” So that’s one way that we may encounter, quote-unquote, woke-ism.

听着，许多左翼人士会因为我说这些话而取笑我，但这显然是一个社会议程，因为他们认为好莱坞和文化精英使用它是可以接受的，他们真正重视性取向和其他方面的进步，并且真正相信“为了代表性而展示它”很重要。所以这就是我们可能会遇到的一种方式，引用不引用，唤醒主义。

15:09 But the more important ways, frankly, are the ways that affirmative action, which really has its roots in American society all the way going back to the 1960s, and how those have manifested in our economy and in our understanding of, quote-unquote, “discrimination.” So two books I can recommend, one is called The Origins of Woke, that’s by Richard Hanania.

但坦率地说，更重要的方式是平权行动的方式，它的根源可以追溯到 20 世纪 60 年代的美国社会，以及这些方式如何在我们的经济和我们对“歧视”的理解中体现出来。所以我可以推荐两本书，一本叫《唤醒的起源》，作者是理查德·哈纳尼亚。

There’s another one, The Age of Entitlement, by Christopher Caldwell.

还有另一本书，《权利时代》，作者：克里斯托弗·考德威尔。

And they make a very strong case, Caldwell in particular, he calls it like a new founding of America, was the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 because it created an entire new legal regime and understanding of race in the American character and how the government was going to enforce that.

他们提出了一个非常有力的论据，特别是考德威尔，他称这就像美国的新成立一样，1964 年《民权法案》的通过，因为它创造了一个全新的法律制度和对美国特征中的种族的理解以及政府将如何执行这一制度。

15:50 And that really ties in with another one of the books that I recommended to you about the origins of Trump by Jim Webb.

这确实与我向您推荐吉姆·韦伯所著的另一本有关特朗普起源的书有关。

And Senator Jim Webb, incredible, incredible man.

还有参议员吉姆·韦伯，一个令人难以置信的人。

He’s so under appreciated.

他太不受重视了。

Intellectual.

知识分子。

He was anti-war.

他是反战的。

And people may remember him from the 2016 primary and they had asked him a question, I don’t exactly remember, about one of his enemies, and he’s like, “Well, one of them was a guy I shot in Vietnam.” And he was running against Hillary.

人们可能还记得 2016 年初选时的他，他们问过他一个关于他的敌人的问题，我不太记得了，他说，“嗯，其中一个是我在越南枪杀的人。”他正在与希拉里竞选。

16:18 And that guy, he wrote the book, Born Fighting, I think it’s history of the Scots-Irish people, something like that.

那个人，他写了本书，《生而战斗》，我认为这是苏格兰爱尔兰人的历史，类似的东西。

And that book really opened my eyes to the way that affirmative action and racial preferences that were playing out through the HR, managerial elite really turned a lot of people within the white working class away from the Democratic Party and felt fundamentally discriminated against by the professional, managerial class.

那本书确实让我看到了平权行动和种族偏好在人力资源、管理精英中发挥的作用，确实让白人工人阶级中的很多人远离了民主党，并感到从根本上受到了专业管理阶层的歧视。

16:46 So there’s a lot of roots to this, The Managerial Revolution by James Burnham.

所以这有很多根源，詹姆斯·伯纳姆（James Burnham）的《管理革命》。

And in terms of the origin of how we got here, but the crystallization of DEI and/or affirmative action, I prefer to use the term affirmative action, in the highest echelons of business.

就我们如何走到这一步的起源而言，而是 DEI 和/或平权行动的结晶，我更喜欢在企业最高层使用平权行动这个词。

And there became this idea that representation itself was the only thing that mattered.

人们开始认为，代表性本身是唯一重要的事情。

And I think that right around 2014, that really went on steroids, and that’s why it’s not an accident that Donald J.

我认为就在 2014 年左右，这种情况确实得到了加强，这就是为什么唐纳德·J·特朗普 (Donald J.

Trump elected in 2016.

特朗普于 2016 年当选。

At this point, do you think this election is the kind of statement that woke-ism as a movement is dead?

在这一点上，您认为这次选举是唤醒主义运动已经消亡的一种声明吗？

I don’t know.

我不知道。

17:20 It’s very difficult to say because woke-ism itself is not a movement with a party leader, it’s a amorphous belief that has worked its way through institutions now for almost 40 or 50 years.

这很难说，因为觉醒主义本身并不是一场有政党领袖的运动，它是一种无形的信仰，已经在各个机构中渗透了近 40 或 50 年。

It’s effectively a religion.

它实际上是一种宗教。

And part of the reason why it’s difficult to define is it means different things to different people.

它之所以难以定义，部分原因是它对不同的人来说意味着不同的事情。

So for example, there are varying degrees of how we would define, quote-unquote, “woke.” Do I think that the Democrats will be speaking in so-called academic language?

例如，我们对“醒来”的定义有不同程度。我认为民主党会用所谓的学术语言说话吗？

Yes, I do think they will.

是的，我确实认为他们会的。

17:50 I think that the next Democratic nominee will not do that.

我认为下一届民主党提名人不会这样做。

However, Kamala Harris actually did move as much as she could away from, quote-unquote, “woke,” but she basically was punished for a lot of the sins of both herself from 2019, but a general cultural feeling that her and the people around her do not understand me and not only do not understand me, but have racial preferences or a regime or an understanding that would lead to a, quote-unquote, “equity mindset,” equal outcomes for everybody as opposed to equality of opportunity, which is more of a colorblind philosophy.

然而，卡玛拉·哈里斯实际上确实尽可能地远离“醒来”，但她基本上因 2019 年以来自己犯下的许多罪孽而受到惩罚，但普遍的文化感觉是，她和她周围的人不理解我，不仅不理解我，而且有种族偏好或政权或理解，这会导致“公平心态”，每个人的结果平等，而不是机会平等，这是更多的是一种色盲哲学。

So I can’t say, I think it’s way too early.

所以我不能说，我认为现在还为时过早。

18:26 And again, you can not use the word Latinx, but do you still believe in an effective affirmative action regime in terms of how you would run your Department of Justice, in terms of how you view the world, in terms of what you think the real dividing lines in America are?

再说一遍，你不能使用“拉丁裔”这个词，但你仍然相信有效的平权行动制度吗？就你如何管理司法部而言，就你如何看待世界而言，就你认为美国真正的分界线而言？

Because I would say that’s still actually kind of a woke mindset, and that’s part of the reason why the term itself doesn’t really mean a whole lot.

因为我想说这实际上仍然是一种觉醒的心态，这就是为什么这个词本身并没有真正意义的部分原因。

And we have to get, actually, really specific about what it looks like in operations.

事实上，我们必须非常具体地了解它在运营中的情况。

18:55 In operation, it means affirmative action, it means the NASDAQ passing some law that if you want to go public or something, that you have to have a woman and a person of color on your board.

在运作中，这意味着平权行动，这意味着纳斯达克通过了一些法律，如果你想上市或其他什么，你的董事会必须有一名女性和一名有色人种。

This is a blatant and extraordinary, look, racialism that they’ve enshrined in their bylaws.

这是一种公然且非同寻常的种族主义，他们已经将其写入了章程。

So you can get rid of ESG, that’s great, you can get rid of DEI, I think that’s great, but it’s really about a mindset and a view of the world, and I don’t think that’s going anywhere.

所以你可以摆脱 ESG，这很好，你可以摆脱 DEI，我认为这很好，但这实际上是关于一种心态和世界观，我认为这不会有任何进展。

And you think the reason it doesn’t work well in practice is because there’s a big degree to which it’s anti-meritocracy.

你认为它在实践中效果不佳的原因是因为它在很大程度上是反精英统治的。

It’s anti-American, really.

这确实是反美的。

19:29 DEI and woke and affirmative action make perfect sense in a lot of different countries.

DEI 以及觉醒和平权行动在许多不同的国家都非常有意义。

And there are a lot of countries out there that are multi-ethnic and they’re heterogeneous and they are run by, basically, quasi-dictators.

那里有很多多民族国家，它们是异质的，基本上是由准独裁者统治的。

And the way it works is that you pay off the Christians and they pay off the Muslims and they get this guy and they get that guy and everybody kind of shakes…

它的运作方式是，你付钱给基督徒，他们付钱给穆斯林，他们得到这个人，他们得到那个人，每个人都有点动摇……

It’s very explicit where they’re like, we have 10 spots and they go to the Christians, we have 10 spots, and they go to the Hindus.

他们的立场非常明确，我们有 10 个名额，他们给基督徒，我们有 10 个名额，他们给印度教徒。

India’s a country that I know pretty well, and this does kind of work like that on state politics level in some respect.

印度是一个我非常了解的国家，在某些方面，这在国家政治层面上确实起到了类似的作用。

20:02 But in America, fundamentally, we really believe that, no matter where you are from, that you come here, and basically, within a generation, especially if you migrate here legally and you integrate, that you leave a lot of that stuff behind.

但在美国，从根本上来说，我们真的相信，无论你来自哪里，只要你来到这里，基本上，在一代人的时间内，特别是如果你合法移民到这里并融入社会，你就会留下很多东西。

And the story, the American dream that is ingrained in so many of us is, one, that really does not mesh well with any sort of racial preference regime or anything that’s not meritocratic.

这个故事，我们很多人根深蒂固的美国梦，确实与任何种族偏好制度或任何非精英制度都不能很好地契合。

20:29 And I will give the left-wingers some credit in the idea that meritocracy itself could have preference for people who have privileged backgrounds, I think that’s true.

我会给左翼分子一些信任，因为他们认为精英管理本身可能会偏爱拥有特权背景的人，我认为这是事实。

And so, the way I would like to see it is to increase everybody’s equality of opportunity to make sure that they all have a chance at, quote-unquote, “willing out the American dream.” But that doesn’t erase meritocracy, hard work, and many of the other things that we associate with the American character, with the American frontier.

因此，我希望看到的方式是增加每个人的机会平等，以确保他们都有机会“自愿实现美国梦”。但这并不能抹去精英统治、努力工作以及许多其他与美国性格、美国边境联系在一起的东西。

20:58 So these are two ideologies which are really at odds.

所以这是两种截然不同的意识形态。

In a lot of ways, woke-ism, racialism and all this is a third world ideology.

从很多方面来说，觉醒主义、种族主义等等都是第三世界的意识形态。

It’s one that’s very prevalent in Europe and all across Asia, but it doesn’t mix well here, and it shouldn’t.

它在欧洲和整个亚洲非常流行，但在这里并不能很好地融合，也不应该。

And I’m really glad that America feels the same way.

我真的很高兴美国也有同样的感觉。

Yeah, I got to go back to Jim Webb in that book.

是的，我必须回到那本书中的吉姆·韦伯。

21:14 What a badass, fascinating book.

多么牛逼、引人入胜的一本书。

Oh my God, it’s amazing.

天啊，太神奇了。

Born Fighting: How the Scots-Irish Shaped America.

天生好斗：苏格兰人和爱尔兰人如何塑造美国。

21:19 So I did not realize to the degree, first of all how badass the Scots-Irish are.

所以我首先没有意识到苏格兰爱尔兰人有多么糟糕。

And that to the degree, many of the things that kind of identify as American and part of the American spirit were defined by this relatively small group of people as he describes the motto could be summarized as fight, sing, drink and pray.

在某种程度上，许多被认为是美国人和美国精神一部分的东西都是由这个相对较小的群体定义的，正如他所描述的座右铭可以概括为战斗、唱歌、喝酒和祈祷。

21:43 So there’s the principles of fierce individualism, the principles of a deep distrust of government, the elites, the authorities, bottom-up governance, over 2,000 years of a military tradition.

因此，存在着强烈的个人主义原则，对政府、精英、权威的深深不信任的原则，自下而上的治理，以及两千多年的军事传统。

They made up 40% of the Revolutionary War Army and produced numerous military leaders including Stonewall Jackson, Ulysses S.

他们占革命战争军队的 40%，并培养了众多军事领导人，包括斯通沃尔·杰克逊 (Stonewall Jackson)、尤利西斯·S·肯尼迪 (Ulysses S.

Grant, George S.

格兰特，乔治·S.

Patton, and a bunch of presidents, some of the more gangster presidents, Andrew Jackson, Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton.

巴顿，还有一帮总统，一些比较黑帮的总统，安德鲁·杰克逊、泰迪·罗斯福、伍德罗·威尔逊、罗纳德·里根和比尔·克林顿。

Just the whole cultural legacy of country music.

只是乡村音乐的整个文化遗产。

We owe them so much and they really don’t get their due, unfortunately, a lot for the reasons that I just described around racialism is because post-mass immigration from Europe, the term white kind of became blanket applied to new Irish, to Italians, to Slovenians.

我们欠他们太多，但不幸的是，他们确实没有得到应有的回报，很大程度上是因为我刚才描述的种族主义的原因是因为来自欧洲的大规模移民后，“白人”这个词被笼统地应用于新爱尔兰人、意大利人、斯洛文尼亚人。

22:18 And as you and I both know, if you travel those countries, people are pretty different.

正如你和我都知道的那样，如果你去这些国家旅行，你会发现人们的情况非常不同。

And it’s not the different here in the United States.

美国的情况也没有什么不同。

Scots-Irish were some of the original settlers here in America, and particularly in Appalachia.

苏格兰裔爱尔兰人是美洲最早的定居者之一，特别是在阿巴拉契亚地区。

And their contribution to the fighting spirit and their own culture and who we are as individualists and some of the first people to ever settle the frontier.

他们对战斗精神和他们自己的文化的贡献，以及我们作为个人主义者和第一批定居边境的人的身份。

And that frontier mindset really does come from them.

这种前沿思维确实来自他们。

We owe them just as much as we do the Puritans, but they don’t ever really get their due.

我们欠他们的钱就像欠清教徒一样多，但他们却从未真正得到应有的回报。

23:02 And the reason I recommend that book is if you read that book and you understand then how exactly could this group of white working class voters go from 2012 voting for a man named Barack Hussein Obama to Donald J.

我推荐这本书的原因是，如果你读了这本书，你就会明白，从 2012 年投票给巴拉克·侯赛因·奥巴马 (Barack Hussein Obama) 到唐纳德·J·特朗普 (Donald J.

Trump?

特朗普？

It makes perfect sense if you combine it with a lot of the stuff I’m talking about here, about affirmative action, about distrust of the elites, about feeling as if institutions are not seeing through to you and specifically also not valuing your contribution to American history, and in some cases actively looking down.

如果你把它与我在这里谈论的很多内容结合起来，那就完全有道理了，比如平权行动、对精英的不信任、感觉机构没有看清你，特别是也不重视你对美国历史的贡献，在某些情况下还积极地看不起你。

23:35 I’m glad you pointed out not only their role in the Revolutionary War, but in the Civil War as well, and just how much of a contribution culturally really that we owe them for the groundwork that so many of us who came later could build upon and adopt some of their own ideas and their culture as our own.

我很高兴你不仅指出了他们在独立战争中的作用，而且还指出了他们在内战中的作用，以及我们在文化上确实做出了多大的贡献，他们为我们后来的许多人奠定了基础，可以借鉴他们自己的一些想法和文化作为我们自己的。

It’s one of the things that makes America great.

这是让美国变得伟大的因素之一。

Mark Twain.

马克·吐温.

Yeah.

是的。

So much of the culture, so much of the American spirit, the whole idea, the whole shape and form and type of populism that represents our democracy.

如此多的文化、如此多的美国精神、代表我们民主的民粹主义的整个理念、整个形态、形式和类型。

23:56 So would you trace that fierce individualism that we think of back to them?

那么，您能将我们所认为的那种强烈的个人主义追溯到他们身上吗？

Definitely.

确实。

24:12 It’s a huge part of them, about who they were, about the screw you attitude.

这是他们的很大一部分，关于他们是谁，关于螺丝你的态度。

That book actually kind of had a renaissance back in 2016 when Hillbilly Elegy came out.

事实上，早在 2016 年《乡巴佬挽歌》出版时，这本书就已经复兴了。

I’m sure you remember this, which it’s kind of weird to think that it’s now the Vice President-elect of the United States.

我相信你还记得这一点，想到现在是美国当选副总统，这有点奇怪。

It’s kind of wild, honestly, to think about.

老实说，想想这有点疯狂。

But JD Vance’s book, Hillbilly Elegy, I think was really important for a lot of American elites who were like, “How do these poor people support Trump?

但我认为 JD 万斯的书《乡巴佬挽歌》对于很多美国精英来说非常重要，他们会说：“这些穷人如何支持特朗普？

Where does this shit come from?” Really, if you really think back to that time, it was shocking to the elite character that any person in the world could ever vote for Donald Trump.

这玩意儿是从哪里来的？”真的，如果你真的回想那个时候，世界上任何人都可以投票给唐纳德·特朗普，这对精英人物来说是令人震惊的。

And not just vote, he won the election.

他不仅投票，还赢得了选举。

How does that happen?

这是怎么发生的？

And that’s Hillbilly Elegy guided people in an understanding of what that’s like on a lived day-to-day basis.

这就是《乡巴佬挽歌》，引导人们了解日常生活中的情况。

24:56 And JD, to his credit, talks about Scots-Irish heritage, about Appalachia and the legacy of what that culture looks like today and how a lot of these people voted for Donald Trump.

值得赞扬的是，JD 谈论了苏格兰-爱尔兰传统、阿巴拉契亚以及该文化今天的遗产，以及其中很多人如何投票支持唐纳德·特朗普。

But we got to give credit to Jim Webb who wrote the history of these people and taught me and you about their original fight against the oppressors in Scotland and Ireland and their militant spirit and how they were able to bring that over here.

但我们必须赞扬吉姆·韦伯，他写下了这些人的历史，并向我和你讲述了他们最初在苏格兰和爱尔兰与压迫者进行的斗争，以及他们的好战精神，以及他们如何能够将这种精神带到这里。

And they got their due in Andrew Jackson and some of our other populist presidents who set us up on the road to Donald Trump to where we are today.

他们在安德鲁·杰克逊和我们其他一些民粹主义总统身上得到了应有的回报，是他们让我们走上了唐纳德·特朗普的道路，直到今天。

Dude, it got me pumped and excited to be an American.

伙计，作为一名美国人，这让我感到兴奋和兴奋。

Me too.

我也是。

25:29 I love that book.

我喜欢那本书。

It’s crazy that JD, the same guy, because that’s Hillbilly Elegy’s, what I kind of thought of him as.

JD 是同一个人，这太疯狂了，因为那是乡巴佬挽歌，我就是这么认为的。

Yeah, I’ll tell you, for me, it’s actually pretty surreal.

是的，我告诉你，对我来说，这实际上是相当超现实的。

25:38 I met JD Vance in 2017 in a bar.

2017 年，我在一家酒吧认识了 JD Vance。

I didn’t ever think he would be the Vice President-elect of the United States.

我从没想过他会成为美国当选副总统。

Just kind of wild.

只是有点狂野。

25:50 One of my friends went back and dug up the email that we originally sent him, just like, “Hey, do you want to meet up?” And he was like, “Sure.” I was watching on television.

我的一个朋友回去翻出了我们最初发给他的电子邮件，就像，“嘿，你想见面吗？”他说：“当然。”我在电视上看。

The first time that it really hit me, I was like, whoa.

第一次真正触动我时，我想，哇。

It was like, name in a history book is whenever he became the vice presidential nominee.

就像，历史书上的名字就是每当他成为副总统候选人时。

I was watching him on TV and the confetti was falling and he was waving with his wife, and I was like, “Wow, that’s it.” You’re in the history books now forever, especially now as the literal Vice President-elect of the US.

我在电视上看着他，五彩纸屑飘落下来，他正在和他的妻子挥手，我当时想，“哇，就是这样。”您现在已经永远载入史册，尤其是现在作为美国当选副总统。

26:17 But his own evolution is actually a fascinating story for us too because I think a lot of the time I’ve spent right now is a lot of what I’m giving right now are 2016 kind of takes about why Trump won that time.

但他自己的演变对我们来说实际上也是一个引人入胜的故事，因为我认为我现在花的很多时间都是关于 2016 年特朗普为何获胜的。

But we just spent a lot of time on how Donald Trump won this election and what happened, some of the failures of the Biden administration, some of the payback for the Great Awokening.

但我们只是花了很多时间讨论唐纳德·特朗普如何赢得这次选举以及发生了什么，拜登政府的一些失败，大觉醒的一些回报。

But also, if you look at the evolution of JD Vance, this is a person who wrote Hillbilly Elegy.

而且，如果你看看 JD Vance 的演变，就会发现这是一个写《乡巴佬挽歌》的人。

And not a lot of people pay attention to this, but if you read Hillbilly Elegy, JD was much more of a traditional conservative at that time.

并没有很多人注意到这一点，但如果你读过《乡巴佬挽歌》，JD 在当时更像是一个传统的保守派。

26:54 He was citing a report, I think the famous passage is about payday loans and why they’re good or something like that.

他引用了一份报告，我认为著名的段落是关于发薪日贷款以及为什么它们很好或类似的东西。

I don’t know his position today, but I would assume that he’s probably changed that.

我不知道他今天的立场，但我认为他可能已经改变了这一点。

But the point is that his ideological evolution from watching somebody who really was more of a traditional Republican with a deep empathy for the white working class than eventually become a champion and a disciple of Donald Trump, and to believe that he himself was the vehicle for accomplishing and bettering the United States, but specifically for working class Americans really of all stripes.

但关键是，他的意识形态演变是从一个真正的传统共和党人对白人工人阶级有深刻的同情心，而不是最终成为唐纳德·特朗普的拥护者和弟子，并相信他本人是实现和改善美国的工具，特别是针对各种类型的美国工人阶级。

And that story is really one of the rise of the modern left as it exists as a political project, as an ideology.

这个故事实际上是现代左派的崛起，因为它作为一个政治项目、作为一种意识形态而存在。

It’s also one of the Republican Party which coalesced now with Donald Trump as a legitimate figure and as the single bulwark against cultural leftism and elitism that eventually was normalized to the point that majority of Americans decided to vote for him in 2024.

它也是现在与唐纳德·特朗普合并为合法人物和反对文化左派主义和精英主义的唯一堡垒的共和党之一，最终正常化到大多数美国人决定在 2024 年投票给他。

So let’s talk about 2024.

那么我们来谈谈2024年吧。

27:51 What happened with the left?

左边怎么了？

What happened with Biden?

拜登怎么了？

What’s your take on Biden?

您对拜登有何看法？

Biden is, I try to remove myself from it, and I try not to give big history takes while you’re in the moment.

拜登是，我试图将自己从其中抽离出来，并且我尽量不要在你此刻的时候谈论重大历史事件。

27:59 But it’s really hard not to say that he’s one of the worst presidents in modern history.

但很难不说他是现代历史上最糟糕的总统之一。

And I think the reason why I’m going to go with it is because I want to judge him by the things that he set out to do.

我认为我之所以这么做是因为我想根据他打算做的事情来评判他。

28:18 So Joe Biden has been the same person for his entire political career.

因此，乔·拜登在他的整个政治生涯中都是同一个人。

He is a basically C student who thinks he’s an A student.

他基本上是一个 C 学生，但自认为是 A 学生。

The chip on his shoulder against the elites has played to his benefit in his original election to the United States Senate through his entire career as a United States Senator, where he always wanted to be the star and the center of attention and to his 1988 presidential campaign.

在他作为美国参议员的整个职业生涯中，他一直想成为明星和关注的焦点，并在 1988 年的总统竞选中，他与精英对抗的压力在他最初当选美国参议院时对他有利。

And one of the most fascinating things about Biden and watching him age is watching him become even more of what he already was.

拜登最令人着迷的事情之一，就是看着他变老，看着他变得更加像他本来的样子。

28:48 And so, a book recommendation, it’s called What It Takes, and it was written in 1988, and there’s actually a long chapter on Joe Biden and about the plagiarism scandal.

所以，有一本书推荐，叫做《What It Takes》，写于 1988 年，实际上有很长的一章是关于乔·拜登和抄袭丑闻的。

One of the things that comes across is his sheer arrogance and belief in himself as to why he should be the center of attention.

其中一件事是他纯粹的傲慢和对自己为什么应该成为关注焦点的信念。

29:04 Now, the reason I’m laying all this out is the arrogance of Joe Biden, the individual and his character is fundamentally the reason that his presidency went awry.

现在，我阐述这一切的原因是乔·拜登的傲慢，他的个人和他的性格从根本上是他的总统任期出现问题的原因。

This is a person who was elected in 2020, really because of a feeling of chaos of Donald Trump, of we need normalcy, decides to come into the office, portrays himself as a, quote-unquote, “transitional president,” slowly begins to lose a lot of his faculties and then surrounds himself with sycophants, the same ones who have been around him for so long that he had no single input into his life to tell him that he needed to stop and he needed to drop out of the race until it became truly undeniable to the vast majority of the American people.

这是一个在 2020 年当选的人，实际上是因为唐纳德·特朗普的混乱感，我们需要常态，决定入职，将自己描绘成一位不言而喻的“过渡总统”，慢慢地开始失去很多才能，然后周围都是阿谀奉承者，这些人已经在他身边这么久了，以至于他的生活中没有任何一个信息告诉他需要停下来，他需要退出直到它成为绝大多数美国人民真正不可否认的事实。

29:45 And that’s why I’m trying to keep it as him as an individual, as a president, because we could separate him from some of his accomplishments and the things that happened on…

这就是为什么我试图将其保留为他个人、总统，因为我们可以将他与他的一些成就和发生的事情分开......

Some of them I support, some I don’t, but generally, a lot of people are not going to look back and think about Joe Biden and the CHIPS Act.

其中有些我支持，有些我不支持，但总的来说，很多人不会回顾并思考乔·拜登和《CHIPS 法案》。

A lot of people are not going to look back and think about Joe Biden and the Build Back Better bill or whatever his Lina Khan antitrust policy.

很多人不会回顾并思考乔·拜登和“重建更好”法案或他的莉娜·汗反垄断政策。

They’re going to look back on him and they’re going to remember high inflation.

当他们回顾他的时候，他们会记住高通胀。

They’re going to remember somebody who fundamentally never was up to the job in the sense that, again, book recommendation Freedom From Fear by David Kennedy is about the Roosevelt years.

他们会记住一个从根本上无法胜任这份工作的人，因为大卫·肯尼迪的推荐书《免于恐惧》再次是关于罗斯福时代的。

30:20 And one of the most important things people don’t understand is the New Deal didn’t really work in the way that a lot of people wanted it to.

人们不理解的最重要的事情之一是新政并没有真正按照很多人希望的方式发挥作用。

There was still high unemployment, there was still a lot of suffering, but you know what changed?

失业率仍然很高，仍然有很多苦难，但你知道发生了什么变化吗？

They felt that they had a vigorous commander in chief who was doing everything in his power to attack the problems of the everyday American.

他们觉得他们有一位精力充沛的总司令，他正在竭尽全力解决美国普通民众的问题。

So even though things didn’t even materially change, the vigor, that’s a term that was often associated with John F.

因此，即使事情没有发生实质性变化，活力这个词经常与约翰·肯尼迪联系在一起。

Kennedy, he had vigor, in the Massachusetts accent.

肯尼迪，他充满活力，带着马萨诸塞州口音。

We had this young vibrant president in 1960, and he was running around and he wanted to convince us that he was working every single day tirelessly.

1960 年，我们有一位年轻、充满活力的总统，他四处奔波，想让我们相信他每天都在不知疲倦地工作。

And when you have an 80-year-old man who is simply just eating ice cream and going to the beach while people’s grocery prices and all these things go up-

当你有一个 80 岁的老人，他只是吃冰淇淋、去海滩，而人们的杂货价格和所有这些东西都在上涨——

31:00 …

……

cream and going to the beach while people’s grocery prices and all this thing go up by 25%.

奶油和去海滩，而人们的杂货价格和所有这些东西上涨了 25%。

And we don’t see the same vigor, we don’t see the same action, the biased action, which is so important in the modern presidency.

我们没有看到同样的活力，我们没有看到同样的行动，有偏见的行动，而这在现代总统任期中是如此重要。

31:12 That is fundamentally part of the reason why the Democrats lost the election and also why I think that he missed his moment in such a dramatic way.

这从根本上是民主党输掉选举的部分原因，也是我认为他以如此戏剧性的方式错过了自己的时刻的原因。

And he had the opportunity, he could have done it if he wanted to, but maybe 20 years ago.

他有机会，如果他愿意的话他可以做到，但也许是在 20 年前。

But the truth is that his own narcissism, his own misplaced belief in himself and his own accidental rise to the presidency ended up in his downfall.

但事实是，他自己的自恋、他对自己的错误信念以及他自己意外登上总统宝座最终导致了他的垮台。

31:36 And it’s amazing because again, if we look back to his original campaign speech 2019, why I’m running for president, it was Charlottesville, and he said, “I want to defeat Donald Trump forever and I want to make sure that he never gets back in the White House again.” By his own metric he did fail.

这真是太神奇了，因为如果我们回顾一下他 2019 年最初的竞选演讲，我为什么要竞选总统，那就是夏洛茨维尔，他说，“我想永远击败唐纳德·特朗普，我想确保他永远不会再回到白宫。”按照他自己的标准，他确实失败了。

It was the only thing he wanted to do, and he failed from.

这是他唯一想做的事，但他却失败了。

You said a lot of interesting stuff.

你说了很多有趣的话。

31:54 One, FDR that’s really interesting.

第一，罗斯福真的很有趣。

It’s not about the specific policy, it’s about fighting for the people and doing that with charisma and just uniting the entire country for a…

这与具体政策无关，而是为人民而战，并以个人魅力做到这一点，并将整个国家团结起来……

This is the same with Bernie.

这与伯尼的情况相同。

Maybe there’s a lot of people that disagree with Bernie that’s still supporting him because we just want somebody-

也许有很多人不同意伯尼的观点，但仍然支持他，因为我们只是想要一个人——

Feels authentic.

感觉很真实。

Yeah.

是的。

That’s it.

就是这样。

We just want somebody to fight authentically for us.

我们只是希望有人真正为我们而战。

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

32:20 FDR people really…

罗斯福人民真的……

FDR was like a king.

罗斯福就像一个国王。

He was like Jesus Christ in the US.

他就像美国的耶稣基督。

And some of it was because of what he did, but it was just the fight.

部分原因是因为他所做的事情，但这只是战斗。

People need to go back and read the history of the first 100 days under FDR, the sheer amount of legislation that went through, his ability to bring Congress to heel and the Senate.

人们需要回顾并阅读罗斯福执政前 100 天的历史、所通过的大量立法、他让国会和参议院就范的能力。

He gets all this stuff through.

他把所有这些事情都搞定了。

32:39 But as you and I know, legislation takes a long time to put into place.

但正如你我所知，立法需要很长时间才能落实到位。

We’ve had people starving on the streets all throughout 1933 under Hoover.

整个 1933 年，胡佛统治下，人们都在街头挨饿。

The difference was Hoover was seen as this do nothing joke who would dine nine course meals in the White House, and he was a filthy rich banker.

不同之处在于，胡佛被视为一个无所事事的笑话，他会在白宫吃九道菜，而且他是一位肮脏而富有的银行家。

FDR comes in there and every single day has fireside chats.

罗斯福来到那里，每天都有炉边谈话。

He’s passing legislation, but more importantly, so he tries various different programs.

他正在通过立法，但更重要的是，他尝试了各种不同的计划。

33:05 Then they get ruled unconstitutional.

然后他们被裁定违宪。

He tries even more.

他甚至还尝试更多。

What does America take away from that?

美国从中得到了什么？

Every single time if he gets knocked down, he comes back fighting.

每次如果他被击倒，他都会回来战斗。

And that was a really part of his character that he developed after he got polio.

这确实是他在患上小儿麻痹症后形成的性格的一部分。

And it gave him the strength to persevere through personally what he could transfer in his calm demeanor and his feeling of fight that America really got that spirit from him and was able to climb itself out of the Great Depression.

这给了他个人坚持下去的力量，他可以通过他的冷静举止和他的战斗感传递出什么，美国真正从他那里得到了这种精神，并能够摆脱大萧条。

He’s such an inspirational figure.

他是一个非常鼓舞人心的人物。

He really is.

他确实是。

33:36 And people think of him for World War II, of course, we can spend forever on that.

人们会想到他参加第二次世界大战，当然，我们可以为此花费永远的时间。

But in my opinion, the early years are not studied enough.

但在我看来，早年研究得还不够。

33 to 37 is one of the most remarkable periods in American history.

33年到37年是美国历史上最引人注目的时期之一。

We were not ruled by a president.

我们不是由总统统治的。

We were ruled by a king, by a monarch.

我们由国王、君主统治。

And people liked it.

人们喜欢它。

He was a dictator and he was a good one.

他是一位独裁者，也是一位好人。

Yeah.

是的。

33:56 To push back against the implied thing that you said.

反驳你所说的暗示的事情。

Sure.

当然。

When saying Biden is the worst president-

当说拜登是最糟糕的总统时——

No second worst in modern history, that’s what I said.

现代历史上没有第二糟糕的，这就是我所说的。

Second in modern history.

近代史上第二位。

34:06 Who’s the worst?

谁是最糟糕的？

W, no question.

W，毫无疑问。

I see.

我懂了。

34:09 Because of the horrible wars probably.

可能是因为可怕的战争。

I mean, Iraq is just so bad.

我的意思是，伊拉克太糟糕了。

It’s just a mess.

这只是一团糟。

34:13 Yeah.

是的。

One of my favorite authors is a guy, Jean Edward Smith.

我最喜欢的作家之一是让·爱德华·史密斯。

34:14 He’s written a bunch of presidential biographies.

他写了一堆总统传记。

And in the opening of his W Biography, he’s like, “There’s just no question.

在他的 W 传记的开头，他说：“这是毫无疑问的。

This is a single worst foreign policy mistake in all of American history.

这是美国历史上最严重的外交政策错误。

And W is one of our worst presidents ever.” He had terrible judgment and it got us into a war of his own choosing.

W 是我们有史以来最糟糕的总统之一。”他的判断力很糟糕，这让我们陷入了他自己选择的战争。

It was a disaster, and it set us up for failure.

这是一场灾难，它注定了我们的失败。

By the way, we talked a lot about Donald Trump.

顺便说一句，我们谈论了很多关于唐纳德·特朗普的事情。

Nobody is more responsible for the rise of Donald Trump than George W.

没有人比乔治·W·布什对唐纳德·特朗普的崛起负有更大的责任。

Bush, but I could go off on Bush for a long time.

布什，但我可以对布什生气很长一段时间。

Oh, we will.

哦，我们会的。

34:44 We’ll return there.

我们会回到那里。

As part of the pushback I’d like to say, because I agree with your criticism of arrogance and narcissism against Joe Biden.

作为反击的一部分，我想说，因为我同意你对乔·拜登傲慢和自恋的批评。

The same could be said about Donald Trump.

唐纳德·特朗普也可以这样说。

You’re absolutely right.

你说得完全正确。

Of arrogance.

傲慢。

34:56 And I think you’ve also articulated that a lot of presidents throughout American history have suffered from a bad case of arrogance and narcissism.

我认为你还明确指出，美国历史上的许多总统都遭受过傲慢和自恋的严重困扰。

Absolutely.

绝对地。

35:05 But sometimes for a benefit.

但有时也是为了利益。

You have to be a pretty crazy person to want to be president.

你必须是一个非常疯狂的人才能成为总统。

I had put out a tweet that got some controversy, and I think it was Joe Rogan, who I love, but he was like, “I want to find out who Kamala Harris is as a human being.” And I was like, “I’m actually not interested in who politicians are as human beings at all.” I was like, “I’ve read too much about them to know, I know who you are.” If you spend your life and because I live in Washington and I spend a lot of time around would-be politicians, I know what it takes to actually become the president.

我发布了一条引起了一些争议的推文，我认为那是我爱的乔·罗根，但他说，“我想知道卡马拉·哈里斯作为一个人是谁。”我当时想，“实际上我对政客作为人根本不感兴趣。”我当时想，“我读了太多关于他们的文章，不知道，我知道你是谁。”如果你一生都在，而且因为我住在华盛顿，而且我花了很多时间和未来的政治家在一起，我知道真正成为总统需要什么。

It’s crazy.

太疯狂了。

You have to give up everything, everything.

你必须放弃一切，一切。

35:39 Every night, you’re not spending it with your wife.

每天晚上，你都不会和你的妻子一起度过。

You’re spending it at dinner with potential donors, with friends, with people who can connect you.

你会用这笔钱与潜在的捐赠者、朋友以及能够与你建立联系的人共进晚餐。

Even after you get elected, that’s even moreso now you got to raise money and now you’re onto the next thing.

即使在你当选之后，现在你还必须筹集资金，现在你要做下一件事。

Now you want to get your political thing through.

现在你想要完成你的政治事务。

You’re going to spend all your time on your phone.

你将把所有的时间都花在手机上。

You and your staff are going to be more like this.

你和你的员工将会变得更像这样。

35:56 Your entire life revolves around your career.

你的整个生活都围绕着你的事业。

It’s honestly, you need an insane level of narcissism to do it because you have to believe that you are better than everybody else, which is already pretty crazy.

老实说，你需要疯狂的自恋才能做到这一点，因为你必须相信自己比其他人都好，这已经相当疯狂了。

And not only that, your own personal characteristics and foibles lead you to the pursuit of this office and to the pursuit of the idolatry of the self and everything around you.

不仅如此，你自己的个人特征和缺点引导你追求这个职位，追求对自我和周围一切的崇拜。

36:20 There’s a famous story of Lady Bird Johnson after Johnson becomes the president and he’s talking to the White House Butler.

约翰逊就任总统后，有一个关于伯德·约翰逊夫人的著名故事，他正在与白宫管家交谈。

She was like, “Everything in this house revolves around my husband.

她说：“这个房子里的一切都围绕着我丈夫。

Whatever’s left goes to the girls,” her two children, “And I’ll take the scraps.” Everything revolved around Johnson’s political career and his daughters, when they’re honest, because they like to paper over some of the things that happened under him, but they didn’t spend any time with him.

剩下的都归女孩们所有，”她的两个孩子，“我会拿走残羹剩饭。”一切都围绕着约翰逊的政治生涯和他的女儿们，老实说，因为她们喜欢掩盖他领导下发生的一些事情，但她们没有花任何时间和他在一起。

36:44 Saturday morning was for breakfast with Richard Russell, I forget.

周六早上是和理查德·拉塞尔一起吃早餐，我忘了。

These are all in the Robert A.

这些都在 Robert A.

Caro books.

卡罗的书。

Sunday was for Rayburn.

周日是雷伯恩的日子。

There was no time for his kids.

没有时间陪伴他的孩子们。

That’s what it was.

就是这样。

And by the way, he’s one of the greatest politicians to ever live.

顺便说一句，他是有史以来最伟大的政治家之一。

But he also died from a massive heart attack and he was a deeply sad and depressed individual.

但他也死于严重的心脏病，他是一个非常悲伤和抑郁的人。

I saw that tweet, to go back to that.

我看到了那条推文，回到那条推文。

37:03 And also I listened to your incredible debate about it with Marshall on the Realignment podcast.

我还在重组播客上听到了你与马歇尔关于这个问题的令人难以置信的辩论。

And I have to side with Marshall.

我必须站在马歇尔一边。

I think you’re just wrong on this.

我认为你在这一点上错了。

All right.

好的。

Because I think revealing the character of a person is really important to understand how they will act in a room full of generals and full of-

因为我认为揭示一个人的性格对于了解他们在满是将军和充满-的房间里将如何行事非常重要

Yeah, this gets to the judgment question.

是的，这涉及到判断问题。

The judgment.

判决。

And that’s, I think of Johnson and of Nixon, of Teddy Roosevelt, even of FDR.

我想到了约翰逊、尼克松、泰迪·罗斯福，甚至罗斯福。

37:25 I can give you a laundry list of personal problems that all those people had.

我可以给你列出所有这些人所遇到的个人问题。

I think they had really, really good judgment.

我认为他们的判断力非常非常好。

And I’m not sure how intrinsic their own personal character was to their exploration and thinking about the world.

我不确定他们的个人性格对他们探索和思考世界的影响有多大。

JFK is actually, JFK might be our best example because he had the best judgment out of anybody in a room as a brand new president in the Cuban Missile crisis.

肯尼迪实际上是，肯尼迪可能是我们最好的例子，因为作为古巴导弹危机中的新总统，他在房间里的任何人中都有最好的判断力。

37:55 And he got us out and avoided nuclear war, which he deserves eternal credit for that.

他把我们救了出来，避免了核战争，他为此值得永远的赞誉。

But how did he arrive to good judgment?

但他是如何做出良好判断的呢？

Some of it certainly was his character, and we can go again though into his laundry list of that.

其中一些肯定是他的性格，我们可以再次回顾一下他的性格清单。

But most of it was around being with his father, seeing some of the mistakes that he would make.

但大部分时间都是和他的父亲在一起，看到他会犯一些错误。

And he was also had a deeply inquisitive mind and he experienced World War II at the personal level after PT 109.

而且他也有一颗深深的好奇心，在PT 109之后他在个人层面上经历了第二次世界大战。

38:22 Look, I get it.

看，我明白了。

I actually could steal, man.

我实际上可以偷东西，伙计。

The response to what I’m saying is judgment is not divisible from personal character, but just because I know a lot of politicians and I’ve read enough with the really great ones, the people who I revere the most, there’s really bad personal stuff basically every single time.

对我所说的的回应是，判断力与个人性格是不可分割的，但仅仅因为我认识很多政治家，并且我读过足够多的真正伟大的政治家，我最尊敬的人，基本上每次都会有非常糟糕的个人东西。

But you’re saying the judgment was good?

但你说这个判决很好？

His judgment was great.

他的判断力很棒。

38:43 His judgment-

他的判断——

On the Cuban Missile Crisis.

关于古巴导弹危机。

Yes.

是的。

Some of the best judgment and decision-making in the history of America.

美国历史上一些最好的判断和决策。

Yes, and we should study a lot of it.

是的，我们应该研究很多。

38:51 And I encourage people out there, this is a brutal text.

我鼓励人们，这是一篇残酷的文字。

We were forced to read it in graduate school, the Essence of Decision by Graham Allison.

我们在研究生院被迫阅读格雷厄姆·艾利森的《决策的本质》。

I’m so thankful we did.

我很感激我们做到了。

It’s one of the foundations of political science because it lays out theories of how government works.

它是政治学的基础之一，因为它阐述了政府如何运作的理论。

This is also a useful transition, by the way, if we want to talk about Trump and some of his cabinet and how that is shaping up because people really need to understand Washington.

顺便说一句，如果我们想谈论特朗普和他的一些内阁成员以及这是如何形成的，这也是一个有用的转变，因为人们确实需要了解华盛顿。

39:17 Washington is a creature with traditions, with institutions that don’t care about you.

华盛顿是一个有传统的生物，有不关心你的机构。

They don’t even really care about the president.

他们甚至并不真正关心总统。

They have self-perpetuating mechanisms which have been done a certain way.

它们具有以某种方式实现的自我延续机制。

And it usually takes a great shocking event like World War II to change really anything beyond the marginal.

通常需要像第二次世界大战这样令人震惊的重大事件才能真正改变任何超出边际范围的事情。

Every once in a while you have a figure like Teddy Roosevelt who’s actually able to take peacetime presidency and transform the country, but it needs an extraordinary individual to get something like that done.

每隔一段时间就会出现像泰迪·罗斯福这样的人物，他实际上能够在和平时期担任总统并改变国家，但需要一个非凡的个人才能完成这样的事情。

39:44 The question around the essence of decision was the theory behind the Cuban Missile Crisis of how Kennedy arrived at his decision.

围绕决策本质的问题是古巴导弹危机背后的理论，即肯尼迪如何做出决定。

And there are various different schools of thought.

并且存在各种不同的思想流派。

But one of the things I love about the book is it presents a case for all three, the organizational theory, the bureaucratic politics theory, and then kind of The Great Man Theory as well.

但我喜欢这本书的原因之一是它为这三个理论提供了一个案例，即组织理论、官僚政治理论，以及伟人理论。

you and I could sit here and I could tell you a case about PT 109 and about how John F.

你和我可以坐在这里，我可以告诉你一个关于 PT 109 的案例以及约翰·F·肯尼迪 (John F.

Kennedy experienced World War II as this, I think it was a First Lieutenant or something like that.

肯尼迪经历过第二次世界大战，我认为这是一个中尉或类似的人。

And how he literally swam miles with a wounded man’s life jacket strap in his teeth with a broken back, and he saved him and he ended up on the cover of Life Magazine and he was a war hero.

以及他如何用牙齿咬住一名伤员的救生衣带，游了数英里，背部受伤，救了他，最终登上了《生活》杂志的封面，他是一名战争英雄。

And he was a deeply smart individual who wrote a book in 1939 called Why England Slept, which to this day is considered a text, which at the moment was able to describe in detail why Neville Chamberlain and the British political system arrived at the policy of appeasement.

他是一个非常聪明的人，他在 1939 年写了一本名为《英国为何沉睡》的书，至今仍被认为是一本文本，当时它能够详细描述为什么内维尔·张伯伦和英国政治制度会采取绥靖政策。

40:43 I actually have a original copy is one of my most prized possessions.

事实上，我有一份原件，这是我最珍贵的财产之一。

And from 1939, because this is a 23-year-old kid, who the fuck are you, John F.

从 1939 年开始，因为这是一个 23 岁的孩子，你他妈是谁，约翰·肯尼迪 (John F.

Kennedy?

肯尼迪？

Turns out he’s a brilliant man.

事实证明他是一个才华横溢的人。

And another just favorite aside is that at the Potsdam Conference where Harry Truman is there with Stalin and everybody.

另一个最喜欢的事情是在波茨坦会议上，哈里·杜鲁门与斯大林和所有人在一起。

In the room at the same time, Harry S.

与此同时，在房间里，Harry S.

Truman, President of the United States, Dwight D.

杜鲁门，美国总统，德怀特·D.

Eisenhower, the general, who will succeed him.

艾森豪威尔将军，将接替他。

26-year-old John F.

26 岁的约翰·F.

Kennedy as a journalist, some shit head journalists on the side, and all three of those presidents were in the same room with Joseph Stalin and others.

肯尼迪是一名记者，旁边还有一些垃圾记者，而这三位总统都与约瑟夫·斯大林和其他人在同一个房间。

And that’s the story of America right there.

这就是美国的故事。

It’s kind of amazing.

这真是太神奇了。

I loved people to say that because you never know about who will end up rising to power.

我喜欢人们这么说，因为你永远不知道谁最终会掌权。

Are you announcing that you’re running for president?

您宣布竞选总统吗？

No, absolutely not.

不，绝对不是。

Good.

好的。

I don’t have what it takes.

我没有需要的东西。

41:29 I don’t think so.

我不这么认为。

I’m self-aware.

我有自知之明。

Well, maybe humility is necessary for greatness.

嗯，也许谦逊是伟大的必要条件。

41:32 Okay.

好的。

Actually, can we just linger on that book?

事实上，我们可以继续看那本书吗？

Yeah.

是的。

The book, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis by Graham Allison, it presents three different models of how government works, the Rational Act model, so seeing government as one entity.

格雷厄姆·艾利森（Graham Allison）所著的《决策的本质：解释古巴导弹危机》一书提出了政府运作的三种不同模型，即理性法案模型，因此将政府视为一个实体。

41:38 Trying to maximize the national interest.

力图实现国家利益最大化。

Also seeing government as through the lens of the momentum of standard operating procedures.

还通过标准操作程序的动力来看待政府。

So this giant organization that’s just doing things how it’s always been done.

所以这个庞大的组织只是按照一贯的方式做事。

And the government politics model of there’s just these individual internal power struggles within government.

政府政治模式就是政府内部的个人内部权力斗争。

And all of that is a different way to view, and they’re probably all true to a degree, of how decisions are made within this giant machinery of government.

所有这些都是一种不同的方式来看待这个庞大的政府机构如何做出决策，而且它们在某种程度上可能都是正确的。

That’s why it’s so important is because you cannot read that book and say one is true and one is not.

这就是为什么它如此重要，因为你不能读那本书并说一个是真的，一个不是。

42:26 You can say one is more true than the other, but all of them are deeply true.

你可以说其中一个比另一个更真实，但它们都是深刻的真实。

And this is one, or this is probably a good transition to Donald Trump because…

这就是其中之一，或者这可能是向唐纳德·特朗普的一个很好的过渡，因为……

And I guess for the people out there who think I’ve been up too obsequious, you’ll be my criticism, Trump says something very fundamental and interesting on the Joe Rogan podcast, probably the most important thing that he ever said.

我想对于那些认为我过于谄媚的人来说，你会成为我的批评者，特朗普在乔·罗根播客上说了一些非常基本和有趣的事情，这可能是他说过的最重要的事情。

Which is he said, “I like to have people like John Bolton in my administration, well, because scare people and it makes me seem like the most rational individual in the room.”

他说：“我喜欢约翰·博尔顿这样的人加入我的政府，因为会吓到人们，这让我看起来是房间里最理性的人。”

42:58 At a very intuitive level, a lot of people can understand that, and then they can rationalize, while there are picks that Donald Trump has brought into his White House, people like Mike Waltz and others that have espoused views that are directly at odds with a “anti-neocon anti-Liz Cheney agenda”.

在非常直观的层面上，很多人都可以理解这一点，然后他们可以合理化，尽管唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)将一些人选带入白宫，但像迈克·沃尔兹(Mike Waltz)和其他人这样的人所拥护的观点与“反新保守主义、反利兹·切尼议程”直接不一致。

Now, Trump’s theory of this is that he likes to have “psychopaths” like John Bolton in the room with him while he’s sitting across from Kim Jong Un because it gets scared.

现在，特朗普对此的理论是，当他坐在金正恩对面时，他喜欢让约翰·博尔顿这样的“精神病患者”和他一起在房间里，因为金正恩会感到害怕。

43:26 What I think Trump never understood when he was president, and I honestly question if he still does now, is those two theories that you laid out, which are not about the rational interest as the government is one model, but the bureaucratic theory and the organizational theory of politics.

我认为特朗普在担任总统时从未理解过，而且我真诚地质疑他现在是否仍然理解，是你提出的这两种理论，它们不是关于理性利益的，因为政府是一种模式，而是官僚理论和政治组织理论。

And because what Trump I don’t think quite gets is that there are 99% of the decisions that get made in government never reached the president’s desk.

因为我认为特朗普不太明白的是，政府做出的 99% 的决定从未到达总统的办公桌。

One of the most important Obama quotes ever is, “By the time it gets to my desk, nobody else can solve it.

奥巴马最重要的名言之一是：“当它到达我的办公桌时，没有其他人能够解决它。

All the problems here are hard.

这里的所有问题都很困难。

All the problems here don’t have an answer.

这里的所有问题都没有答案。

That’s why I have to make the call.”

这就是为什么我必须打电话。”

43:57 The theory that Trump has that you can have people in there who are, let’s say warmongers, neocons or whatever, who don’t necessarily agree with you, is that when push comes to shove at the most important decisions, that I’ll still be able to rein those people in as an influence.

特朗普的理论是，你可以让那些不一定同意你观点的人，比如战争贩子、新保守派或其他什么人，在最重要的决定面临紧急关头时，我仍然能够控制这些人，发挥影响力。

Here’s the issue.

这就是问题所在。

Let’s say for Mike Waltz, who’s going to be the National Security Advisor, a lot of people don’t really understand there’s this theory of national security advisor where you call me into your office and you’re the president and you’re like, “Hey, what do we think about Iran?” I’m like, “I think you should do X, Y, and Z.”

比方说，对于即将担任国家安全顾问的迈克·沃尔兹（Mike Waltz）来说，很多人并不真正理解国家安全顾问的理论，你把我叫到你的办公室，你是总统，你会说，“嘿，我们对伊朗有什么看法？”我想，“我认为你应该做 X、Y 和 Z。”

44:25 No, that’s not how it works.

不，事情不是这样的。

The national security advisor’s job is to coordinate the inter-agency process.

国家安全顾问的工作是协调机构间流程。

His job is to actually convene meetings, him and his staff, where in the situation room, CIA, state Department, SECDEF, others before the POTUS even walks in, we have options.

他的工作是实际召集会议，他和他的工作人员，在战情室、中央情报局、国务院、SECDEF 和其他人甚至在总统走进来之前，我们就有选择。

We’re like, “Hey, Russia just invaded Ukraine.

我们就像，“嘿，俄罗斯刚刚入侵了乌克兰。

Weed a package of options.

剔除一揽子选择。

Those packages of options are concede of three things.

这些选项包承认三件事。

We’re going to have one group, we’re going to call it the dovish option.

我们将有一组，我们将其称为鸽派选项。

Two, we’re going to call it the middle ground.

第二，我们将其称为中间立场。

Three, the hardcore package.”

第三，硬核包。”

44:53 Trump walks in, this is how it’s supposed to work.

特朗普走进来，这就是它应该如何运作的方式。

Trump walks in and he goes, “Okay, Russia invaded Ukraine.

特朗普走进来，说道：“好吧，俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰。

What do we do?” “Mr. President, we’ve prepared three options for you.

我们该怎么办？ “总统先生，我们为您准备了三种选择。

We got one, two, and three.” Now, who has the power?

我们得到了一、二、三。”现在，谁有这个权力？

Is it Trump when he picks one, two, or three?

当特朗普选一、二、三时，是特朗普吗？

Or is the man who decides what’s even in option one, two, and three?

或者是决定选项一、二、三的内容的人？

That is the part where Trump needs to really understand how these things happen.

这就是特朗普需要真正了解这些事情是如何发生的部分。

45:12 And I watched this happen to him in his first administration.

我在他的第一届政府中目睹了这种情况发生在他身上。

He hired a guy, Mike Flynn, who was his national security advisor.

他聘请了迈克·弗林（Mike Flynn）担任他的国家安全顾问。

You could say a lot about Flynn, but him and Trump were at least like this on foreign policy.

关于弗林你可以说很多，但他和特朗普至少在外交政策上是这样的。

Flynn gets outed because what I would call an FBI coup, whatever.

弗林被曝光是因为我称之为联邦调查局政变，无论如何。

33 days, he’s out as a national security advisor, H.R McMaster, he’s got a nice shiny uniform, four star, all of this.

33天后，他不再担任国家安全顾问，H.R麦克马斯特，他有一套漂亮闪亮的四星级制服，所有这一切。

McMaster doesn’t agree with Donald Trump at all.

麦克马斯特根本不同意唐纳德·特朗普的观点。

And so Trump says, “I ran on pulling out of Afghanistan, I want to get out of Afghanistan.” They’re like, “Yeah, we’ll get out of Afghanistan, but before we get out, we got to go back in.” As in we need more troops in there.

因此特朗普说：“我曾要求从阿富汗撤军，我想离开阿富汗。”他们说，“是的，我们会离开阿富汗，但在离开之前，我们必须回去。”就像我们需要更多的部队一样。

And he’s like, “Oh, okay.” It’s like all this and proves a plan and effectively gives a speech in 2017 where he ends up escalating and increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan.

他说：“哦，好吧。”就像这一切一样，他证明了一个计划，并在 2017 年发表了一次演讲，最终升级了阿富汗的兵力并增加了军队数量。

And it’s only until February, 2020 that he gets to sign a deal, the Taliban peace deal, which in my opinion, he should have done in 2017.

直到 2020 年 2 月，他才能签署一项协议，塔利班和平协议，在我看来，他应该在 2017 年签署。

46:06 But the reason why that happened was because of that organizational theory, of that bureaucratic politics theory where H.R McMaster is able to guide the inter-agency process, bring the uniform recommendations of the joint chiefs of staff and others to give Donald Trump no option but to say, “We must put troops.” Another example of this is a book called Obama’s War by Bob Woodward.

但之所以发生这种情况，是因为那种组织理论、那种官僚政治理论，麦克马斯特能够指导机构间进程，提出参谋长联席会议和其他人的统一建议，让唐纳德·特朗普别无选择，只能说：“我们必须派兵。”另一个例子是鲍勃·伍德沃德写的一本名为《奥巴马的战争》的书。

I highly encourage people to read this book because this book talks about how Obama comes into the White House in 2009 and he says, “I want to get out of Iraq and I don’t want to increase…

我强烈鼓励人们阅读这本书，因为这本书讲述了奥巴马如何在 2009 年入主白宫，他说：“我想离开伊拉克，我不想增加......

I want to fight the Good War in Afghanistan.” Obama’s a thoughtful guy, too thoughtful actually.

我想在阿富汗打一场正义之战。”奥巴马是一个有思想的人，实际上太有思想了。

And so he sits there and he’s working out his opinions.

所以他坐在那里，正在思考他的意见。

And what he starts to watch is that very slowly his options began to narrow because strategic leaks start to come out from the White House situation room about what we should do in Afghanistan.

他开始看到，他的选择慢慢地开始缩小，因为白宫战情室开始泄露有关我们应该在阿富汗做什么的战略消息。

46:56 And pretty soon David Petraeus and Stan McChrystal and the entire national security apparatus has Obama pegged where he basically politically at the time decides to take the advantage position of increasing troops in Afghanistan, but then tries to have it both ways by saying, “But in two years, we’re going to withdraw.” That book really demonstrates how the deep state can completely remove any of your options to be able to move by presenting you with ones which you don’t even want, and then making it politically completely infeasible to travel down the extreme directions.

很快，大卫·彼得雷乌斯（David Petraeus）、斯坦·麦克里斯特尔（Stan McChrystal）以及整个国家安全机构就将奥巴马锁定在了一边，当时他基本上在政治上决定利用在阿富汗增兵的优势地位，但随后又试图双管齐下，说：“但两年后，我们将撤军。”这本书真正展示了深层政府如何通过向你提供你甚至不想要的选择来完全消除你的任何选择，然后使其在政治上完全不可能走向极端的方向。

47:33 That’s why when Trump says things like, “I want to get out of Syria,” that doesn’t compute up here for the Pentagon.

这就是为什么当特朗普说“我想离开叙利亚”之类的话时，五角大楼对此不以为然。

Because first of all, if I even asked you how many troops we have in Syria, and you could go on the DOD website, it’ll tell you a number.

因为首先，如果我什至问你我们在叙利亚有多少军队，你可以访问国防部网站，它会告诉你一个数字。

The number’s bullshit because the way that they do it is if you’re only there for 179 days, you don’t count as active, military contracts.

这个数字是胡说八道，因为他们的做法是，如果你只在那里呆了 179 天，你就不算有效的军事合同。

The real numbers, let’s say five times.

实际数字，假设是五倍。

47:51 And so Trump would be like, “Hey, I want to get out of Syria.” They’re like, “Yeah, we’ll do it.

所以特朗普会说，“嘿，我想离开叙利亚。”他们会说：“是的，我们会做到的。

Six months, we need six months.” And after six months ago, he goes, “So, are we out of Syria yet?” And they’re like, “No.

六个月，我们需要六个月。”六个月后，他问道：“那么，我们已经离开叙利亚了吗？”他们就像，“不。

Well, we got to wrap this up.

好吧，我们得把这件事结束了。

We got this base, we got that, and we have this important mission.” And next thing you know, you’re out of office and it’s over.

我们得到了这个基地，我们得到了那个，我们有这个重要的使命。”接下来你就会知道，你离开了办公室，一切都结束了。

That there’s all these things which I don’t think he quite understands.

我认为他不太理解所有这些事情。

I know that some of the people around him who disagree with these picks do is the reason why these picks really matter, it’s not only are the voices in the situation room for the really, really high profile stuff, it’s where all little things to never get to that president’s desk of which can shape extraordinary policy.

我知道他周围的一些不同意这些选择的人确实是这些选择真正重要的原因，这不仅是战情室中真正非常引人注目的事情的声音，也是所有永远不会到达总统办公桌的小事情都可以制定非凡政策的地方。

48:23 And I’ll give you the best example.

我会给你最好的例子。

There was never a decision by FDR as President of the United States to oil embargo Japan.

作为美国总统的罗斯福从未决定对日本实施石油禁运。

One, which he thought about as deeply as you and I would want.

一，他按照你我的意愿进行了深入的思考。

It was a decision made within the State Department.

这是国务院内部做出的决定。

It was a decision that was made by some of his advisors.

这是他的一些顾问做出的决定。

I think he eventually signed off on it.

我认为他最终同意了。

It was a conscious choice, but it was not one which ever was understood the implications that by doing that, we invite a potential response like Pearl Harbor.

这是一个有意识的选择，但人们并没有理解这样做的含义，即这样做会引发像珍珠港事件这样的潜在反应。

So think about what the organizational bureaucratic model can tell us about the extraordinary blowback that we can get and why we want people with great judgment all the way up and down the entire national security chain in the White House.

因此，想一想，组织官僚模式可以告诉我们什么关于我们可以获得的非凡反击，以及为什么我们希望白宫整个国家安全链上下游都拥有具有良好判断力的人。

49:03 Also, I just realized I did not talk about immigration, which is so insane.

另外，我刚刚意识到我没有谈论移民，这太疯狂了。

One of the reasons Donald Trump won in 2024, of course, was because of the massive change to the immigration status quo.

当然，唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 在 2024 年获胜的原因之一是移民现状的巨大变化。

The truth is is that it may actually be second to inflation in terms of the reason that Trump did win the presidency was because Joe Biden fundamentally changed the immigration status quo in this country.

事实是，就特朗普赢得总统职位而言，它实际上可能仅次于通货膨胀，因为乔·拜登从根本上改变了这个国家的移民现状。

That was another thing about the Scots-Irish people and others that we need to understand is that when government machinery and elitism and liberalism appears to be more concerned about people who are coming here in a disorderly and illegal process and about their rights and their ability to “pursue the American dream,” while the American dream is dying for the native-born population, that is a huge reason why people are turning against mass immigration.

关于苏格兰-爱尔兰人民和其他人，我们需要了解的另一件事是，当政府机制、精英主义和自由主义似乎更关心那些以无序和非法的方式来到这里的人们以及他们的权利和“追求美国梦”的能力时，而美国梦正在为本土出生的人口而消亡，这就是人们反对大规模移民的一个重要原因。

Historically as well, my friend, Reihan Salam, wrote a book called Melting Pot or Civil War?

从历史上看，我的朋友雷汉·萨拉姆（Reihan Salam）写了一本名为《大熔炉还是内战？》的书。

And one of the most important parts about that book is the history of mass migration to the United States.

这本书最重要的部分之一是大规模移民到美国的历史。

50:02 If we think about the transition from Scots-Irish America to the opening of America to the Irish and to mass European immigration, what a lot of people don’t realize is it caused a ton of problems.

如果我们考虑一下从苏格兰-爱尔兰美洲到美国向爱尔兰人和大规模欧洲移民开放的转变，很多人没有意识到它引起了很多问题。

There were mass movements at the time, the no nothings and others in the 1860s who rose up against mass European migration.

当时有群众运动，1860 年代有无无运动和其他运动，这些运动起来反对大规模的欧洲移民。

They were particularly concerned about Catholicism as the religion of a lot of the new immigrants.

他们特别担心天主教作为许多新移民的宗教信仰。

50:28 But really what it was is about the changing of the American character by people who are not have the same traditions, values and skills as the native-born population.

但实际上，这是关于美国人性格的改变，这些人与本土出生的人口具有不同的传统、价值观和技能。

And their understanding of what they’re owed and their role in American society is very different from the way that people previously had.

他们对自己所欠的以及他们在美国社会中的角色的理解与人们以前的理解非常不同。

One of the most tumultuous periods of US politics was actually during the resolution of the immigration question where we had massive waves of foreign-born population come to the United States.

美国政治最动荡的时期之一实际上是在解决移民问题期间，大量外国出生的人口涌入美国。

We had them integrated, luckily actually at the time with the Industrial Revolution.

幸运的是，我们在工业革命时期将它们整合在一起。

So we actually did have jobs for them.

所以我们确实为他们提供了工作。

51:06 One of the problems is that today in the United States, we have one of the highest levels of foreign-born population than ever before, actually since that time in the early 1900s.

问题之一是，今天的美国是外国出生人口数量比以往任何时候都最高的国家之一，实际上是自 1900 年代初期以来的情况。

But we have all of the same attendant problems.

但我们也面临着同样的随之而来的问题。

But even worse is we don’t live in an industrial economy anymore.

但更糟糕的是我们不再生活在工业经济中。

We live in a predominantly service-based economy that has long moved past manufacturing.

我们生活在一个以服务业为主的经济体，这种经济体早已超越了制造业。

51:27 Now, I’m not saying we shouldn’t bring some of that back, but the truth is that manufacturing today is not what it was to work in a steel mill in 1875.

现在，我并不是说我们不应该恢复其中的一些，但事实是，今天的制造业已经不再是 1875 年在钢厂工作的样子了。

I think we can all be reasonable and we can agree on that.

我认为我们都可以讲道理，并且我们可以在这一点上达成一致。

And part of the problems with extremely high levels of foreign-born population, particularly unskilled, and the vast majority of the people who are coming here and who are claiming asylum are doing so under fraudulent purposes.

部分问题在于外国出生人口数量极高，尤其是非技术人员，而且绝大多数来到这里并申请庇护的人都是出于欺诈目的。

They’re doing so because they are economic migrants and they’re abusing asylum law to basically gain entrance to the United States without going through a process of application or of merit.

他们这样做是因为他们是经济移民，他们滥用庇护法基本上无需经过申请或资格程序即可进入美国。

And this has all of its traces back to 1965 where the Immigration Naturalization Act of 1965 really reversed and changed the status quo of immigration from the 1920s to 1960, which really shut down levels of immigration to the United States.

这一切都可以追溯到1965年，1965年的《移民入籍法案》真正扭转并改变了20年代至1960年的移民现状，真正降低了美国的移民水平。

In my opinion, it was one of the most important things that ever happened.

在我看来，这是有史以来发生的最重要的事情之一。

And one of the reasons why is it forced and caused integration.

这也是强制和引发整合的原因之一。

It also forced by slowing down the increase in the number of foreign-born population, it redeveloped an American character and an understanding that was more homogenous and was the ability for you and me to understand despite the difference in our background.

它还通过减缓外国出生人口数量的增长，重新塑造了美国人的性格和更加同质的理解，并且是你我尽管背景不同但能够理解的能力。

52:39 If you accelerate and you continue this trend of the very high foreign-born unskilled population, you unfortunately are basically creating a mass…

如果你加速并继续这种外国出生的非技术人口数量非常高的趋势，不幸的是，你基本上是在创造大量……

It’s basically it’s a non-citizen population of illegal immigrants, people who are not as skilled.

基本上是非法移民中的非公民人口，他们的技术水平不高。

I think I read 27% of the people who’ve come under Joe Biden illegally don’t even have a college degree.

我想我读过，27% 的非法加入乔·拜登的人甚至没有大学学位。

That means that we are lucky if they’re even literate in Spanish, let alone English.

这意味着，如果他们能说西班牙语，我们就很幸运了，更不用说英语了。

So there are major problems about integrating that type of person.

因此，整合这类人存在很大的问题。

Even in the past, whenever we had a mass industrial economy, now imagine today the amount of strain that would put on social services if mass citizenship happened to that population would be extraordinary.

即使在过去，每当我们拥有大规模工业经济时，现在想象一下，如果今天的人口实现大规模公民身份，社会服务将承受巨大的压力。

53:24 I don’t think it’s a good idea, but even if we were to do so, we would still need to pair it with a dramatic change.

我认为这不是一个好主意，但即使我们这样做，我们仍然需要将其与巨大的改变结合起来。

And part of the problem right now is I don’t think a lot of people understand that immigration system.

现在的部分问题是我认为很多人不了解移民制度。

The immigration system in the United States, effectively they call it family-based migration.

美国的移民制度，实际上他们称之为基于家庭的移民。

I call it chain migration.

我称之为链式迁移。

Chain migration is the term which implies that let’s say you come over here and you get your green card.

连锁移民这个术语意味着，假设您来到这里并获得了绿卡。

You can use sponsorship and others by gaming the quota system to get your cousin or whatever to be able to come.

你可以利用赞助和其他方式通过玩弄配额制度来让你的表弟或其他人能够来。

The problem with that is who is your cousin?

问题是你的表弟是谁？

Is he a plumber?

他是水管工吗？

Is he a coder?

他是编码员吗？

That doesn’t actually matter because he’s your cousin si he actually has preference.

这实际上并不重要，因为他是你的表弟，他实际上有偏好。

54:03 The way that it should work is it should be nobody cares if he’s your cousin.

它应该起作用的方式是应该没有人关心他是否是你的表弟。

What does he do?

他做什么的？

What does she do?

她是做什么的？

What is she going to bring to this country?

她要给这个国家带来什么？

All immigration in the United States, in my opinion, should be net positive without doing fake statistics about, “Oh, they actually increased the GDP or whatever.” It’s like we need a merit-based immigration system.

在我看来，美国的所有移民都应该是净积极的，而不需要做虚假的统计数据，“哦，他们实际上增加了国内生产总值或其他什么。”这就像我们需要一个基于绩效的移民制度。

We are the largest country in the world and one of the only Western countries in the world that does not have a merit-based points-based immigration system like Australia and, or Canada.

我们是世界上最大的国家，也是世界上唯一没有像澳大利亚和/或加拿大那样基于积分的移民制度的西方国家之一。

54:32 And I mean, I get it because a lot of people did come to this country under non-merit-based purposes, so they’re really reluctant to let that go.

我的意思是，我明白这一点，因为很多人确实是出于非功绩的目的来到这个国家，所以他们真的不愿意放手。

But I do think that Biden, by changing the immigration status quo and by basically just allowing tens of millions, potentially tens of millions, at the very least 12 million new entrants to come to the US under these pretenses of complete disorder and of no conduct, really broke a lot of people’s understanding and even mercy in that regard.

但我确实认为，拜登改变了移民现状，基本上只是允许数千万、可能数千万、至少1200万新移民以完全混乱和毫无行为为借口来到美国，这确实打破了很多人在这方面的理解，甚至是怜悯。

And so that was obviously a massive part of Trump’s victory.

因此，这显然是特朗普获胜的重要组成部分。

Speaking of illegal immigration, what do you think about the border czar, Tom Homan?

说到非法移民，您对边境沙皇汤姆·霍曼有何看法？

Tom Homan is a very legit dude, got to know him a little bit in Trump 1.0.

汤姆·霍曼（Tom Homan）是一个非常正派的人，在特朗普 1.0 中对他有所了解。

55:11 He is an original true believer on enforcing immigration law as it is.

他是严格执行移民法的最初忠实拥护者。

Now notice how I just said that.

现在请注意我刚才是怎么说的。

That’s a politically correct way of saying mass deportation.

这是大规模驱逐出境的政治正确说法。

And I will point out for my left wing critics in that, yeah, he really believes in the ability, in the necessity of mass deportation, and he has the background to be able to carry that out.

我要向我的左翼批评者指出，是的，他确实相信大规模驱逐出境的能力和必要性，而且他有能力实现这一目标的背景。

I will give some warnings, and this will apply to Doge too.

我会给出一些警告，这也适用于Doge。

czar has no statutory or constitutional authority.

沙皇没有法定或宪法权力。

czar has as much authority as the President of the United States gives him.

沙皇拥有美国总统赋予他的权力。

Donald Trump, I think it’s fair to say, even as critics or even the people who love him could say he can be capricious at times.

唐纳德·特朗普，我认为可以公平地说，即使批评者甚至爱他的人可能会说他有时会反复无常。

And he can strip you or not strip you or give you the ability to compel.

他可以剥夺你，也可以不剥夺你，或者给你强迫的能力。

56:07 Czar in and of itself is frankly a very flawed position in the White House, and it’s one that I really wish we would move away from.

坦率地说，沙皇本身就是白宫中一个非常有缺陷的职位，我真的希望我们能够摆脱这个职位。

I understand why we do it.

我明白我们为什么这样做。

It’s basically to do a national security advisor inter-agency convener to accomplish certain goals.

基本上就是做一个国家安全顾问机构间召集人来完成某些目标。

That said, there is a person, Stephen Miller, who will be in the White House, the Deputy White House chief of staff who has well-founded beliefs, experience in government and rock solid ideology on this, which I think would also give him the ability to work with Homan to pull that off.

也就是说，有一个人，斯蒂芬·米勒，将进入白宫，担任白宫副幕僚长，他拥有充分的信念、政府经验和坚定的意识形态，我认为这也将使他有能力与霍曼合作实现这一目标。

56:38 That said, a corollary to this, and frankly this is the one I’m the most mystified yet, is Kristi Noem as the Department of Homeland Security Secretary.

也就是说，这一推论，坦率地说，这是我最困惑的一个，那就是克里斯蒂·诺姆担任国土安全部部长。

Let me just lay this out for people because people don’t know what this is.

让我向人们介绍一下，因为人们不知道这是什么。

The Department of Homeland Security, 90% of the time the way you’re going to interact with them is TSA.

国土安全部，90% 的时候你与他们互动的方式都是 TSA。

You don’t think about it.

你不考虑它。

But people don’t know.

但人们不知道。

The Department of Homeland Security is one of the largest law enforcement if maybe the largest law enforcement agency in the world.

国土安全部是世界上最大的执法机构之一，甚至可能是最大的执法机构。

It’s gigantic.

这是巨大的。

You have extraordinary statutory power to be able to prove investigations.

您拥有非凡的法定权力来证明调查。

You have border patrol, ICE, TSA, CBP, all these other agencies that report up to you.

你有边境巡逻队、ICE、TSA、CBP 以及所有其他向你报告的机构。

But most importantly for this, you will be the public face of mass deportation.

但最重要的是，你将成为大规模驱逐的公众形象。

57:22 I was there in the White House briefing room last time around when Kirstjen Nielsen, who was the DHS secretary under Donald Trump, and specifically the one who enforced child separation for a limited period of time.

上次我在白宫简报室时，克尔斯詹·尼尔森 (Kirstjen Nielsen) 是唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 领导下的国土安全部部长，特别是在一段有限的时间内强制儿童分离的人。

She was a smart woman.

她是一个聪明的女人。

She has long experience in government.

她拥有长期的政府工作经验。

And honestly, she melted under the criticism.

老实说，她在批评下崩溃了。

Kirsti Noem is the governor of South Dakota.

基尔斯蒂·诺姆是南达科他州州长。

I mean, that’s great.

我的意思是，那太好了。

You have a little bit of executive experience, but to be honest, I mean you have no law enforcement background.

你有一点行政经验，但说实话，我的意思是你没有执法背景。

You have no, frankly, with understanding of what it is going to be like to be the secretary of one of the most controversial programs in modern American history.

坦率地说，你不知道成为美国现代历史上最具争议的项目之一的秘书会是什么样子。

58:01 You have to go on television and defend that every single day, a literal job requirement under Donald Trump.

你必须每天上电视并捍卫这一点，这是唐纳德·特朗普领导下的字面工作要求。

And you will have to have extraordinary command of the facts.

而且你必须对事实有非凡的把握。

You have to have a very high intellect.

你必须有非常高的智力。

You have to have the ability to really break through.

你要有真正突破的能力。

And I mean, we all watch how she handled that situation with her dog and her interviews.

我的意思是，我们都在关注她如何处理她的狗的情况以及她的采访。

And that does not give me confidence that she will be able to do all that well in the position.

这并没有让我相信她能够在这个职位上做得那么好。

What do you think is behind that?

您认为这背后的原因是什么？

I have no idea.

我不知道。

Krystal Ball’s theory on Breaking Points is that there’s some kind of interpersonal…

克里斯托·鲍尔 (Krystal Ball) 的《突破点》理论是，存在某种人际交往……

I can explain it.

我可以解释一下。

I should know this, but I didn’t know any of…

我应该知道这一点，但我什么都不知道……

58:36 There was some cheating or whatever.

有一些作弊或其他什么。

There’s a rumor nobody knows if it’s true that Corey Lewandowski and Kirsti Noem had a previous relationship ongoing.

有传言称科里·莱万多夫斯基和基尔斯蒂·诺姆之前的恋情仍在继续，但没有人知道这是否属实。

58:41 Corey Lewandowski is a Trump official and that he maybe put her in front.

科里·莱万多夫斯基是特朗普的官员，他可能把她放在前面。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Is this like the Real Housewives of DC?

这像DC的真正主妇吗？

Yeah, but kind of, although I mean it was the most open secret in the world, allegedly.

是的，但是有点，尽管我的意思是，据称这是世界上最公开的秘密。

58:53 I don’t know if it’s true.

我不知道这是不是真的。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

I don’t like to traffic too much in personal theories.

我不喜欢过多谈论个人理论。

But I mean in this respect, it might actually be correct in terms of how it all came down.

但我的意思是，在这方面，就这一切的发生而言，它实际上可能是正确的。

I have no idea what he’s thinking to be…

我不知道他在想什么……

I truly don’t.

我真的不知道。

I mean, maybe it’s like he was, last time he said, “I want a woman who’s softer and emotionally and the ability to be the face of my immigration program.” I mean, again, like I said, I don’t see it.

我的意思是，也许就像他上次说的那样，“我想要一个更温柔、更情绪化、有能力成为我的移民计划代言人的女性。”我的意思是，就像我说的，我没有看到它。

In terms of her experience and her media, it’s frankly not very good.

就她的经历和媒体而言，坦白说不是很好。

You think she needs to be, not just be the softer face of this radical policy, but also be able to articulate what’s happening with the reasoning behind all that?

你认为她不仅需要在这项激进政策中保持温和的态度，而且还能够阐明正在发生的事情以及这一切背后的原因？

Yes.

是的。

59:37 You need to give justification for everything.

你需要为一切给出理由。

Here’s the thing.

事情是这样的。

Under mass deportation, the media will drag up every sob story known to planet Earth about this person and that person who came here illegally and why they deserve to stay.

在大规模驱逐下，媒体将重述地球上已知的关于这个人和那个非法来到这里的人的每一个悲惨故事，以及为什么他们应该留下来。

And really what the quasi thing is.

真正的准东西是什么。

That’s why the program itself is bad and we should legalize everybody who’s here illegally.

这就是为什么这个计划本身很糟糕，我们应该让每个非法入境的人合法化。

Okay.

好的。

59:56 The thing is that you need to be able to have extraordinary oversight.

问题是你需要能够进行非凡的监督。

You need a great team with you.

你需要一个优秀的团队与你同行。

You need to make sure that everything is being done by the book.

你需要确保一切都按照书本进行。

The way that the media is being handled is that you throw every question back in their face and you say, “Well, you either talk about crime or you talk about the enforceability of the law, the necessity.” I mean, I just I think articulated a very coherent case for why we need much less high levels of immigration to the United States.

对待媒体的方式是，你把每个问题都抛回到他们面前，然后说：“好吧，你要么谈论犯罪，要么谈论法律的可执行性和必要性。”我的意思是，我只是我认为阐明了一个非常连贯的案例，说明了为什么我们需要更少的移民到美国。

And I am the son of people who immigrated to this country.

我是移民到这个国家的人的儿子。

1:00:26 But one of the favorite phrases I heard from this, from a guy named Mark Corcoran, who’s a center for immigration studies, is, “We don’t make immigration policy for the benefit of our grandparents.

但我从中听到的最喜欢的一句话之一是，来自移民研究中心马克·科科伦（Mark Corcoran）的人，他说：“我们制定移民政策不是为了我们祖父母的利益。

We make immigration policy for the benefit of our grandchildren.” And that is an extraordinary and good way to put it.

我们制定移民政策是为了我们孙辈的利益。”这是一种非同寻常且很好的表达方式。

And in fact, I would say it’s a triumph of the American system that somebody whose family benefited from the immigration regime and was able to come here.

事实上，我想说这是美国制度的胜利，一个家庭受益于移民制度并能够来到这里的人。

My parents had PhDs, came here legally, applied, spent thousands of dollars through the process.

我的父母拥有博士学位，合法来到这里，申请，在整个过程中花费了数千美元。

Can arrive at the conclusion that actually we need to care about all of our fellow American citizens.

可以得出这样的结论：实际上我们需要关心所有美国公民。

I’m not talking about other Indians or whatever.

我不是在谈论其他印度人或其他什么。

I’m talking about all of us.

我说的是我们所有人。

I care about everybody who is here in this country.

我关心这个国家的每个人。

But fundamentally, that will mean that we are going to have to exclude some people from the US.

但从根本上来说，这意味着我们将不得不将一些人排除在美国之外。

1:01:13 And another thing that the open borders people don’t ever really grapple with is that even within their own framework, it makes no sense.

开放边界的人们从未真正解决的另一件事是，即使在他们自己的框架内，这也是没有意义的。

for example, a common left-wing talking point is that it’s America’s fault that El Salvador and Honduras and Central America is fucked up.

例如，左翼的一个常见论点是，萨尔瓦多、洪都拉斯和中美洲搞砸了，都是美国的错。

And so because of that, we have a responsibility to take all those people in because our fault.

正因为如此，我们有责任因为我们的错误而接纳所有这些人。

Or Haiti, right?

或者海地，对吗？

But if you think about it, America is responsible, and I’m just being honest, for destroying and ruining a lot of countries.

但如果你想一想，美国对摧毁和毁灭许多国家负有责任，而且我只是说实话。

They just don’t benefit from the geographic ability to walk to the United States.

他们只是没有受益于步行到美国的地理优势。

1:01:50 I mean, if we’re doing grievance politics, Iraqis have way more of a claim to be able to come here than anybody from El Salvador who’s talking about something that happened in 1982.

我的意思是，如果我们进行不满政治，伊拉克人比任何来自萨尔瓦多谈论 1982 年发生的事情的人更有权利声称能够来到这里。

Within its own logic, it doesn’t make any sense.

按照它自己的逻辑，它没有任何意义。

Even under the-

即使在-

1:02:00 Within its own logic, it doesn’t make any sense.

按照它自己的逻辑，它没有任何意义。

Even under the asylum process, people don’t even know this, you’re literally able to claim asylum from domestic violence.

即使在庇护程序下，人们甚至不知道这一点，你实际上可以因家庭暴力而申请庇护。

Okay?

好的？

I mean, imagine that.

我的意思是，想象一下。

Frankly, that is a local law enforcement and problem of people who are experiencing that in their home country.

坦率地说，这是当地执法部门的问题，也是在自己国家遇到这种情况的人的问题。

I know how cold-hearted this sounds, but maybe, honestly, it could be because I’m Indian.

我知道这听起来多么冷酷无情，但说实话，也许是因为我是印度人。

1:02:25 One of the things that whenever you visit India and you see a country with over a billion people, you’re like, “Holy shit.

其中一件事是，每当你访问印度，看到一个拥有超过十亿人口的国家时，你都会想，“天哪。

This is crazy,” and you understand both the sheer numbers of the amount of people involved, and also, there is nothing in the world you could ever do to solve all problems for everybody.

这太疯狂了。”你不仅了解所涉及的人数之多，而且世界上没有任何事情可以为每个人解决所有问题。

It’s a very complex and dynamic problem, and it’s really nice to be bleeding heart and to say, “Oh, well, we have responsibility to this and to all mankind and all that,” but it doesn’t work.

这是一个非常复杂和动态的问题，流血的心说：“哦，好吧，我们对这个、对全人类和所有这一切负有责任”，这真的很好，但这是行不通的。

It doesn’t work with the nation state.

它不适用于民族国家。

It doesn’t work with the sovereign nation.

它不适用于主权国家。

We’re the luckiest people in the history of the world to live here in this country, and you need to protect it and protecting it requires really thinking about the fundamentals of immigration itself and not telling us stories.

我们是世界历史上最幸运的人，生活在这个国家，你需要保护它，保护它需要真正思考移民本身的基本原理，而不是给我们讲故事。

1:03:06 There’s a famous moment from the Trump White House where Jim Acosta, CNN white House correspondent, got into it with Stephen Miller, who will be the current deputy chief, and he was like, “What do you say,” something along the lines, “to people who say you’re violating that quote on the Statue of Liberty, ‘Give me you’re tired, you’re poor, you’re hungry,’?” all of that,” the Emma Lazarus quote.

特朗普白宫有一个著名的时刻，CNN 白宫记者吉姆·阿科斯塔 (Jim Acosta) 与将成为现任副局长的史蒂芬·米勒 (Stephen Miller) 进行了交谈，他问，“对于那些说你违反了自由女神像上的名言‘告诉我，你累了、你穷了、你饿了’的人，你说什么？”所有这一切，”艾玛·拉扎勒斯引用的话。

And Stephen very logically was like, “What level of immigration comports with the Emma Lazarus quote?

斯蒂芬非常合乎逻辑地说道，“什么水平的移民符合艾玛·拉扎勒斯的引言？

Is it 200,000 people a year?

每年有20万人吗？

Is it 300?

是300吗？

Is it 1 million?

是100万吗？

Is it 1.5 million?”

是一百五十万吗？”

1:03:39 And that’s such a great way of putting it because there is no limiting principle on Emma Lazarus quote.

这是一个很好的表达方式，因为艾玛·拉扎勒斯的引言没有限制原则。

There is, when you start talking, honestly, you’re like, “Okay.

老实说，当你开始说话时，你会说：“好吧。

We live in X, Y, and Z society with X, Y, and Z GDP.

我们生活在 X、Y、Z 社会，GDP 为 X、Y、Z。

People who are coming here should be able to benefit for themselves and us not rely on welfare, not be people who we have to take care of after because we have our own problems here right now and who are the population and the types of people that we can study and look at who will be able to benefit, and based on that, yeah, immigration is great,” but there are a lot of economic, legal and societal reasons for why you definitely don’t want the current level.

来到这里的人应该能够为自己谋福利，而我们不应该依赖福利，而不是成为我们必须照顾的人，因为我们现在有自己的问题，我们可以研究哪些人口以及哪些类型的人将能够受益，基于此，是的，移民很棒，”但是有很多经济、法律和社会原因可以解释为什么你绝对不想要目前的水平。

1:04:19 But another thing is even if we turn the switch and we still let in 1,000,005 people a year under the chain family-based migration, I think it would be a colossal mistake because it’s not rooted in the idea that people who are coming to America are explicitly doing so at the benefit of America.

但另一件事是，即使我们打开开关，我们仍然在以家庭为基础的连锁移民下每年允许 1,000,005 人入境，我认为这将是一个巨大的错误，因为它的根源并不是这样的想法，即来到美国的人显然是为了美国的利益而这样做。

It’s doing so based on the familial connections of people who already gamed the immigration system to be able to come here.

它这样做是基于那些已经利用移民系统来到这里的人的家庭关系。

1:04:45 I have a lot of family in India and I love them, and some of them are actually very talented and qualified.

我在印度有很多家人，我爱他们，他们中的一些人实际上非常有才华和资格。

If they wanted to come here, I think they should be able to apply on their own merit and that should have nothing to do with their familial status of the fact that I’m a US citizen.

如果他们想来这里，我认为他们应该能够根据自己的优点来申请，这应该与他们的家庭状况以及我是美国公民这一事实无关。

You mentioned in the book Melting Pot or Civil War by Reihan Salam.

您在 Reihan Salam 的《熔炉或内战》一书中提到过。

1:04:59 He makes an argument against the open borders.

他反对开放边界。

The thesis there is a simulation should be a big part.

论文中有一个模拟应该是一个很大的部分。

I guess there’s some kind of optimal rate of immigration which allows for a simulation.

我猜想存在某种允许模拟的最佳移民率。

Yeah, and there are ebbs and flows, and that’s what I was talking about historically where, I mean, the truth is you could walk the streets of New York City in the early 1900s and the late 1890s and you’re not going to hear any English, and I think that’s bad.

是的，有潮起潮落，这就是我在历史上谈论的，我的意思是，事实是，你可以在 1900 年代初和 1890 年代末走在纽约市的街道上，而你不会听到任何英语，我认为这很糟糕。

1:05:14 I mean, really what you had was ethnic enclaves of people who were basically practicing their way of life just like they did previously, bringing over a lot of their ethnic problems that they had and even some of their cultural unique capabilities or whatever, bringing it to America, and then New York City police and others are figuring out like, “What the hell do we do with all of this?” And it literally took shutting down immigration for an entire generation to do away with that and there’s actually still some.

我的意思是，实际上你所拥有的是种族飞地，人们基本上像以前一样实践着自己的生活方式，将他们所拥有的许多种族问题甚至他们的一些文化独特能力或其他什么带到了美国，然后纽约市警察和其他人正在想，“我们到底该怎么处理这一切？”实际上，关闭移民需要整整一代人的时间才能消除，而且实际上仍然有一些。

1:05:52 The point about assimilation is twofold.

关于同化的要点是双重的。

One is that you should have the capacity to inherit the understanding of the American character that has nothing to do with race, and that’s so unique that I can sit here as a child of people from India and has such a deep appreciation for the Scots Irish.

一是你应该有能力继承对与种族无关的美国人性格的理解，这是如此独特，以至于我可以作为印度人的孩子坐在这里，并对苏格兰爱尔兰人有如此深刻的欣赏。

I consider myself American first, and one of the things that I really love about that is that I have no historical relationship to anybody who fought in the Civil War, but I feel such kinship with a lot of the people who did and reading the memoirs and the ideas of those that did because that same mindset of the victors and the values that they were able to instill in the country for 150 years later gives me the ability to connect to them.

我认为自己首先是美国人，我真正喜欢的一件事是，我与任何参加内战的人都没有历史关系，但我与许多参加过内战的人以及阅读回忆录和那些参加过内战的人的想法感到如此相似，因为胜利者的相同心态以及他们在 150 年后能够向这个国家灌输的价值观使我能够与他们建立联系。

And that’s such an incredible victory on their part and that’s such a unique thing.

这对他们来说是一次令人难以置信的胜利，也是一件非常独特的事情。

1:06:45 In almost every other country in the world, in China and India or wherever, you’re kind of like what you are.

在世界上几乎所有其他国家，无论是中国、印度还是其他任何地方，你都像你自己一样。

You’re a Hindu, you’re a Jew, you’re a Han Chinese, you’re a Uyghur or you’re Tibetan, something like that.

你是印度教徒，你是犹太人，你是汉族，你是维吾尔族，你是藏族，诸如此类。

You’re born into it.

你生来就是这样的。

But really here, it was one of the only places in the world where you can really connect to that story and that spirit and the compounding effect of all of these different people who have come to America, and that is a celebration of immigration as an idea.

但实际上，这里是世界上唯一能让你真正体会到这个故事、那种精神以及所有来到美国的不同人的复合效应的地方之一，这是对移民这一理念的庆祝。

1:07:11 But immigration is also a discrete policy, and that policy was really screwed up by the Biden administration.

但移民也是一项离散政策，而这项政策确实被拜登政府搞砸了。

And so we can celebrate the idea and also pursue a policy for all of the people in the US, our citizens to actually be able to benefit.

因此，我们可以庆祝这个想法，并推行一项让所有美国人民、我们的公民真正受益的政策。

And look, it’s going to be messy, and honestly, I still don’t know yet if Trump will be able to pursue actual mass deportation just because I think that I’m not sure the public is ready for it.

看，这会很混乱，老实说，我仍然不知道特朗普是否能够推行真正的大规模驱逐出境，因为我认为我不确定公众是否已经做好准备。

I do support mass deportation.

我确实支持大规模驱逐出境。

I don’t know if the public is ready for it.

我不知道公众是否已经做好准备。

I think, I don’t know.

我想，我不知道。

I’ll have to see because there’s a lot of different ways that you can do it.

我得看看，因为有很多不同的方法可以做到这一点。

1:07:46 There’s mandatory E-Verify, which requires businesses to basically verify you’re a US citizen or you’re here legally whenever they employ you, which is not the law of the land currently, which is crazy, by the way.

有强制性的电子验证，它要求企业在雇用你时基本上验证你是美国公民，或者你在合法居留，这不是目前的国家法律，顺便说一句，这很疯狂。

You can cut off or tax remittance payments, which are payments that are sent back to other countries like Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala.

您可以截断汇款或缴税，这些付款会汇回墨西哥、洪都拉斯和危地马拉等其他国家。

Again, illustrating my economic migrant point.

再次说明我的经济移民观点。

There are a lot of various different ways where you can just make it more difficult to be illegally here in the US so people will self-deport, but if he does pursue real mass deportation, that will be a flashpoint in America.

有很多不同的方法可以让非法居留美国变得更加困难，这样人们就会自我驱逐出境，但如果他确实追求真正的大规模驱逐出境，那将成为美国的一个热点。

Aren’t you talking about things like what Tom Homan said, the work site raids, sort of increasing the rate of that?

你不是在谈论像汤姆·霍曼（Tom Homan）所说的那样的事情吗？工地突袭，有点增加了这种情况的发生率？

We used to do that.

我们曾经这样做过。

But there’s a rate at which you can do that where it would lead to, I mean, radical social upheaval.

但你这样做的速度有一定程度就会导致，我的意思是，彻底的社会动荡。

Yeah, it will.

是的，会的。

1:08:38 I mean, and I think some people need to be honest here, and this actually flies in the face of …

我的意思是，我认为有些人需要诚实，这实际上违背了……

I mean, one of the most common liberal critiques is this is going to raise prices, and yeah, I think it’s true.

我的意思是，最常见的自由主义批评之一是这会提高价格，是的，我认为这是真的。

I think it’s worth it, but that’s easy for me to say.

我认为这是值得的，但这对我来说很容易说。

I’m making a good living.

我过着很好的生活。

If you care about inflation, you voted for Donald Trump and your price of groceries or whatever goes up because of this immigration policy, I think that needs to be extremely well-articulated by the president and of course, he needs to think about it.

如果你关心通货膨胀，你投票给唐纳德·特朗普，你的食品杂货价格或其他因移民政策而上涨的东西，我认为总统需要非常清楚地阐明这一点，当然，他需要考虑这一点。

1:09:07 The truth is is America right now is built on cheap labor.

事实是，美国现在是建立在廉价劳动力的基础上的。

It’s not fair to the consumer, it’s not fair to the immigrants, the illegal immigrants themselves, and it’s not fair to the natural born citizen.

这对消费者不公平，对移民、非法移民本身不公平，对天生公民也不公平。

The natural born citizen has his wages suppressed for competition by tens of millions of people who are willing to work at lower wages.

天生的公民的工资因数千万愿意以较低工资工作的人的竞争而受到压制。

They have to compete for housing, for social services.

他们必须争夺住房和社会服务。

I mean, just even basic stuff at a societal level, it’s not fair to them.

我的意思是，即使是社会层面的基本问题，这对他们也不公平。

It’s definitely not fair to the other person because, I mean, whenever people say who’s going to build your houses or whatever, you’re endorsing this quasi-legal system where uninsured laborers from Mexico, they have no guarantee of wages, they’re getting paid cash under the table, they are living 10 to a room, they’re sending Mexican remittance payments back just so that their children can eat.

这对另一个人绝对不公平，因为，我的意思是，每当人们说谁要为你建造房屋或其他什么时，你就认可了这种准法律制度，来自墨西哥的没有保险的劳工，他们没有工资保障，他们在桌子底下得到现金，他们住 10 个人住一个房间，他们汇回墨西哥汇款只是为了让他们的孩子能吃饭。

That’s not really fair to that person either.

这对那个人来说也不太公平。

1:10:02 So that’s the point.

这就是重点。

The point is is that it will lead to a lot of social upheaval, but this gets to my Kristi Noem point as well is you need to be able to articulate a lot of what I just said here because if you don’t, it’s going to go south real quick.

关键是这会导致很多社会动荡，但这也触及了我的克里斯蒂·诺姆的观点，即你需要能够清楚地表达我刚才所说的很多内容，因为如果你不这样做，它就会很快走向南方。

The way that Vivek articulates this is that our immigration system is deeply dishonest.

维韦克表达这一点的方式是我们的移民制度非常不诚实。

1:10:15 We don’t acknowledge some of the things he just said.

他刚才说的一些话我们不承认。

Yeah, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

And he wants to make it honest.

他想让事情变得诚实。

1:10:25 So if we don’t do mass deportation, at least you have to be really honest about the living conditions of illegal immigrants, about basically mistreatment of them.

因此，如果我们不进行大规模驱逐，至少你必须诚实地了解非法移民的生活条件，以及对他们的基本虐待。

Yes, it’s true.

是的，这是真的。

1:10:37 I mean, if you support mass illegal migration, you’re basically supporting tens of millions who are living lives as second class citizens.

我的意思是，如果你支持大规模非法移民，那么你基本上就是在支持数千万过着二等公民生活的人。

That’s not fair to them.

这对他们不公平。

I also think it’s deeply paternalistic.

我也认为这是一种深深的家长式作风。

So there’s this idea that America has so ruined these Central American countries that they have no agency whatsoever and they can never turn things around.

因此有一种观点认为，美国已经毁掉了这些中美洲国家，以至于他们没有任何机构，也永远无法扭转局面。

What does that say about our confidence in them?

这说明了我们对他们的信心如何？

1:11:04 One of the things they always say there, “Oh, they’re law-abiding, they’re great people,” and all that.

他们在那里总是说的一件事是，“哦，他们是守法的，他们是伟大的人，”等等。

I agree.

我同意。

Okay?

好的？

By and large, I’m not saying these are bad people, but I am saying if they’re not bad and they’re law-abiding and they’re citizens and thoughtful and all that, they can fix their own countries and they did in El Salvador.

总的来说，我并不是说这些人是坏人，但我是说，如果他们不坏，他们守法，他们是公民，有思想，等等，他们就可以修复自己的国家，他们在萨尔瓦多就做到了。

That’s the perfect example.

这是一个完美的例子。

1:11:21 Look at the dramatic drop in their crime rate.

看看他们的犯罪率急剧下降。

Bukele is one of the most popular leaders in all of South America.

布克莱是整个南美洲最受欢迎的领导人之一。

That is proof positive that you can change things around despite perhaps the legacy of US intervention.

这是一个积极的证据，表明你可以改变事情，尽管美国的干预可能留下了后遗症。

So to just say this idea that because it’s America’s fault that they’re screwed up, it takes agency away from them.

所以说，因为他们搞砸了是美国的错，所以他们失去了代理权。

1:11:42 Another really key part of this dishonesty, this really gets to Springfield and the whole Haitian thing because everybody, beyond the eating cats and dogs, everybody does not even acknowledge because when they’re like, “The Haitians are here legally,” they need to actually think about the program.

这种不诚实的另一个真正关键的部分，这确实涉及到斯普林菲尔德和整个海地的事情，因为除了吃猫和狗之外，每个人甚至都不承认，因为当他们说“海地人合法地在这里”时，他们需要真正考虑这个计划。

The program is called TPS.

该计划称为 TPS。

So let me explain that.

让我解释一下。

TPS is called Temporary Protected Status.

TPS 称为临时保护状态。

Note, what’s the first word on that?

请注意，第一个词是什么？

Temporary.

暂时的。

What does that mean?

这意味着什么？

TPS was developed under a regime in which let’s say that there was a catastrophic …

TPS 是在一个制度下开发的，假设发生了灾难性的……

I think this is a real example.

我认为这是一个真实的例子。

I think there was a volcano or an earthquake or something where people were granted TPS to come to the United States, and the idea was they were going to go back after it was safe.

我认为发生火山或地震或其他什么情况时，人们被授予 TPS 来到美国，他们的想法是他们会在安全后返回。

They just never went back.

他们只是再也没有回去过。

1:12:21 There are children born in the United States today who are adults, who are the descendants of people who are still living in the US under TPS.

今天在美国出生的孩子已经成年，他们是在 TPS 下仍然居住在美国的人的后代。

That’s a perfect example of what Vivek says is dishonest.

这是维韦克所说的不诚实行为的一个完美例子。

You can’t mass de facto legalize people by saying that they’re here temporarily because of a program or because of something that happened in their home country when the reality is that for all intents and purposes, we are acknowledging them as full legal migrants.

你不能通过说他们暂时在这里是因为一个计划或因为在他们的祖国发生的事情而大规模地事实上合法化人们，而现实是，无论出于何种意图和目的，我们都承认他们是完全合法的移民。

So even the term migrant to these Haitians in Springfield makes no sense because they’re supposed to be here under TPS.

因此，即使对于斯普林菲尔德的这些海地人来说，“移民”这个词也毫无意义，因为他们本应在 TPS 的保护下来到这里。

Migrant implies permanency.

移民意味着永久。

1:13:02 So the language is all dishonest and people don’t want to tell you about the things I just said about chain migration.

所以这些语言都是不诚实的，人们不想告诉你我刚才所说的关于链式迁移的事情。

The vast majority of Americans don’t even know how the immigration system works.

绝大多数美国人甚至不知道移民制度是如何运作的。

They don’t understand what I just said about TPS.

他们不明白我刚才所说的TPS。

They don’t really understand the insanity of asylum law, where you can just literally throw up your hands and say, “I fear for my life,” and you get to live here for four or five years before your court date even happens, and by that time, you get a work permit or whatever, you can get housing, like you just said, in substandard conditions, and you can kind of just play the game and wait before a deportation order comes, and even if it does, you never have to leave because there’s no ice agent or whatever who’s going to enforce it.

他们并不真正理解庇护法的疯狂之处，你可以举起双手说，“我担心我的生命”，甚至在开庭日期之前你就可以在这里住四五年，到那时，你可以获得工作许可证或其他什么，你可以获得住房，就像你刚才说的，在不合格的条件下，你可以玩游戏，等待驱逐令到来，即使它到来，你也永远不必离开，因为没有冰毒特工或任何将执行它的人。

So the whole system is nuts right now, and we need complete systematic reform that burns it all to the ground.

所以现在整个制度已经疯了，我们需要彻底的制度改革，把它彻底烧毁。

That said, the image and the reality of a child being separated from their parents seems deeply un-American, right?

也就是说，孩子与父母分离的形象和现实似乎非常不美国，对吗？

Well, I mean, look, it gets …

嗯，我的意思是，看，它变得……

1:13:54 Okay.

好的。

So I’m not going to defend it, but I’ll just put it this way.

所以我不会为它辩护，但我会这样说。

Do you hate children?

你讨厌孩子吗？

See, this is what I mean.

你看，这就是我的意思。

1:14:03 Do you think twice whenever you see a drug addict who’s put in prison and their child is put in protective services?

每当您看到吸毒成瘾者被关进监狱并且他们的孩子被置于保护机构时，您是否会三思而后行？

Nobody in America thinks twice about that, right?

美国没有人会三思而后行，对吗？

Yeah.

是的。

So I mean, well, that’s kind of screwed up.

所以我的意思是，好吧，这有点搞砸了。

1:14:14 Well, what we should think about, why did we come to that conclusion?

那么，我们应该思考什么，为什么我们得出这个结论？

The conclusion was is that these adults willingly broke the law and pursued a path of life, which put them on a trajectory where the state had to come in and determine that you are not allowed to be a parent basically to this child while you serve your debt to society.

结论是，这些成年人自愿违反法律并追求自己的生活方式，这使他们走上了国家必须介入的轨道，并决定在你偿还社会债务的同时，基本上不允许你成为这个孩子的父母。

Now, child separation was very different.

现在，孩子分离的情况非常不同。

Child separation was also a product of extremely strange circumstances in US immigration law, where basically at the time, the reason why it was happening was because there was no way to prosecute people for illegal entry without child separation because previous doctrine, I believe it’s called the Flores Doctrine under some asylum law.

儿童分离也是美国移民法中极其奇怪的情况的产物，基本上在当时，发生这种情况的原因是因为没有办法在没有儿童分离的情况下起诉非法入境的人，因为以前的原则，我相信根据某些庇护法，它被称为弗洛雷斯主义。

People will have to go check my work on this.

人们必须去检查我在这方面的工作。

But basically, the whole reason this evolved as a legal regime was because people figured out that if you bring a kid with you because of the so-called Flores Doctrine or whatever, that you couldn’t be prosecuted for illegal entry, so it was a de facto way of breaking the law.

但基本上，这演变为法律制度的全部原因是因为人们发现，如果你因为所谓的弗洛雷斯主义或其他什么而带着孩子，你就不会因非法入境而受到起诉，所以这是一种事实上的违法方式。

1:15:16 And in fact, a lot of people were bringing children here who weren’t even theirs, who they weren’t even related to or couldn’t even prove it, were bringing them to get around the prosecution for illegal entry.

事实上，很多人把不属于自己的孩子带到这里，甚至与他们没有亲属关系，甚至无法证明，他们带着他们来逃避非法入境的起诉。

So I’m not defending child separation.

所以我并不是为孩子分居辩护。

I think it was horrible or whatever, but if I gave you the context, it does seem like a very tricky problem in terms of do we enforce the law or not, how are we able to do that, and the solution, honestly, is what Donald Trump did was remain in Mexico and then pursue a complete rewrite of the way that we have US asylum law applied and of asylum adjudication and really just about enforcing our actual laws.

我认为这很可怕或无论如何，但如果我给你提供背景信息，这似乎是一个非常棘手的问题，我们是否执行法律，我们如何能够做到这一点，老实说，解决方案是唐纳德·特朗普所做的就是留在墨西哥，然后彻底重写我们应用美国庇护法和庇护裁决的方式，实际上只是执行我们的实际法律。

1:15:58 So what I try to explain to people is the immigration system right now is a patchwork of this deeply dishonest, such a great word, deeply dishonest system in which you use the system and set it up in such ways that illegal immigration is actually one of the easiest things to do to accomplish immigration to the United States.

所以我试图向人们解释的是，现在的移民制度是这个非常不诚实的系统的拼凑而成，在这个系统中，你使用这个系统并以这样的方式设置它，以至于非法移民实际上是实现移民到美国最容易的事情之一。

That is wrong.

那是错误的。

My parents had to apply.

我的父母必须申请。

It wasn’t easy.

这并不容易。

1:16:24 Do you know in India there’s a temple called the Visa Temple where you walk 108 times around it, which is like a lucky number, and you do it when you’re applying for a visa to the United States.

你知道吗，在印度有一座寺庙，叫维萨寺，你绕它走108圈，就像一个幸运数字，你在申请美国签证的时候就这么做了。

It costs a lot of money and it’s hard.

这要花很多钱，而且很难。

People get rejected all the time.

人们总是被拒绝。

There’s billions of people across the world who would love to be able to come here, and many of them want to do so legally and they should have to go through a process.

世界各地有数十亿人希望能够来到这里，其中许多人希望合法地这样做，他们应该必须经过一个程序。

The current way it works is it’s easier to get here illegally than it is legally.

目前的运作方式是，非法到达这里比合法到达这里更容易。

I think that’s fundamentally right.

我认为这基本上是正确的。

It’s also unfair to people like us whose parents did come here legally.

这对于我们这样的父母合法来到这里的人来说也是不公平的。

Can you still man the case against mass deportation?

你还能反对大规模驱逐出境吗？

1:16:53 What are the strongest arguments?

最有力的论据是什么？

The strongest argument would be that these people contribute to society, that these people, many of whom millions of here, have been here for many years who have children, natural born citizens because of birthright citizenship, it would require something that’s fundamentally inhumane and un-American as you said, the idea of separating families across different borders simply because of what is “small decision of coming here illegally”, and the best case beyond any of this moral stuff for no mass deportation is it’s good for business.

最有力的论据是，这些人对社会做出了贡献，这些人（其中许多人有数百万人）在这里生活了很多年，有孩子，是天生的公民，因为与生俱来的公民权，这将需要一些根本上不人道和非美国的东西，正如你所说，仅仅因为“非法来到这里的小决定”而将不同边界的家庭分开的想法，而除了这些不大规模驱逐的道德问题之外，最好的情况是它对商业有利。

1:16:57 Illegal immigration is great for big business.

非法移民对大企业来说是件好事。

It is great for big agriculture.

这对于大农业来说非常有用。

So if you want the lowest prices of all time, then yeah, mass deportation is a terrible idea.

因此，如果你想要有史以来最低的价格，那么大规模驱逐出境是一个糟糕的主意。

First of all, very convincing, and second of all, I mean, you can’t just do mass deportation without also fixing the immigration system, right?

首先，非常有说服力，其次，我的意思是，你不能在不修复移民制度的情况下就进行大规模驱逐，对吗？

Yes, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

1:17:51 And I mean, there are several pieces of legislation.

我的意思是，有几项立法。

H.R.2, that’s something that the Republicans have really coalesced around.

H.R.2，这是共和党真正团结起来的事情。

It’s a border bill.

这是一份边境法案。

I encourage people to go read it and see some of the different fixes to the US immigration system.

我鼓励人们去阅读它并了解美国移民制度的一些不同解决方案。

I’m curious whether it’ll actually pass or not.

我很好奇它是否真的会通过。

Remember, there’s a very slim majority of the House of Representatives for Republicans this time around, and people vote for a lot of things when they’re not in power, but when it’s actually about to become the law, we’ll see.

请记住，这次共和党在众议院的席位非常微弱，人们在不掌权时会投票支持很多事情，但当它实际上即将成为法律时，我们会看到。

There’s a lot of swing state people out there who may think twice before casting that vote.

有很多摇摆州的人在投票之前可能会三思而后行。

So I’m definitely curious to see how that one plays out.

所以我非常想看看它的效果如何。

1:18:23 The other thing is is that, like I just said, the biggest beneficiary of illegal immigration is big business.

另外一点就是，就像我刚才说的，非法移民的最大受益者是大企业。

So if you think they’re going to take this one lying down, absolutely not.

因此，如果你认为他们会对此置之不理，那绝对不会。

They will fight for everything that they have to keep their pool of cheap labor because it’s great for them.

他们会为保留廉价劳动力而奋斗，因为这对他们来说很棒。

I think JD said a story.

我认为JD讲了一个故事。

I think he was on Rogan about how he talked to a hotelier chain guy and he was like, “Yeah, it’s just terrible.

我认为他在《罗根》中讲述了他如何与连锁酒店老板交谈，他说：“是的，这太糟糕了。

They would take away our whole workforce.” And he was like, “Do you hear yourself in terms of what you’re talking, you’re bragging about?” but that’s real.

他们会带走我们全部劳动力。”他说：“你听到自己在说什么、在吹牛吗？”但这是真的。

That’s a real thing.

这是真实的事情。

1:18:57 And that, Tyson Foods and all these other people, that’s another really sad part is …

泰森食品和所有其他人，另一个真正令人悲伤的部分是……

What I mean by second class citizenship is this presumption, first of all, that Americans think it’s too disgusting to process meat or to work in a field.

我所说的二等公民身份首先是这样的假设：美国人认为加工肉类或在田间工作太恶心了。

I think anybody will do anything for the right wage, first of all, but second is the conditions in a lot of those facilities are horrible and they’re covered up for a reason, not only in terms of the way that businesses, they actually conduct themselves, but also to cover up their illegal immigrant workforce.

我认为，首先，为了获得合适的工资，任何人都会做任何事，但其次，许多设施的条件都很糟糕，它们被掩盖是有原因的，不仅是因为企业的实际行为方式，而且是为了掩盖他们的非法移民劳动力。

So honestly, I think it could make things better for everything.

老实说，我认为这可以让一切变得更好。

You have studied how government works.

您已经研究了政府如何运作。

1:19:31 What are the chances mass deportation happens?

发生大规模驱逐出境的可能性有多大？

Well, it depends how you define it.

好吧，这取决于你如何定义它。

1:19:34 So I mean, mass deportation could mean one million.

所以我的意思是，大规模驱逐可能意味着一百万。

I mean, nobody even knows how many people are here illegally.

我的意思是，没有人知道有多少人非法入境。

It could be 20 million, it could be 30 million.

可能是2000万，也可能是3000万。

I’ve seen estimates of up to 30 million, which is crazy.

我见过估计高达 3000 万，这太疯狂了。

That’s almost 1/11 of the entire US population.

这几乎是美国总人口的 1/11。

What number do you think will feel like mass deportation?

您认为多少会让人感觉像大规模驱逐出境？

1:19:46 One million people?

一百万人？

A million people is a lot.

一百万人很多。

That’s a lot of people.

那是很多人。

It’s a lot, but the crazy part is that’s only 1/12 of what Joe Biden led in the country.

虽然很多，但疯狂的是，这只是乔·拜登在该国领导的 1/12。

1:19:54 So it’s one of those.

所以它就是其中之一。

That just to give people the scale of what it will all look like.

这只是为了让人们了解这一切的规模。

Do I think mass deportation will happen?

我认为大规模驱逐出境会发生吗？

It depends on the definition.

这取决于定义。

Will one million over four years?

四年内会达到一百万吗？

Yeah, I feel relatively confident in that.

是的，我对此还是比较有信心的。

Anything over that, it’s going to be tough to say.

除此之外，就很难说了。

Like I said, probably the most efficient way to do it is to have mandatory E-Verify and to have processes in place where it becomes very difficult to live in the United States illegally, and then you’ll have mass self-deportation and they will take the victory lap on that, but actual rounding millions of people up and putting them in deportation facilities and then arranging flights to God knows all across the globe, that’s a logistical nightmare.

就像我说的，最有效的方法可能是实行强制性电子验证，并制定流程，让非法居住在美国变得非常困难，然后你将进行大规模的自我驱逐，他们将在此取得胜利，但实际上将数百万人集中起来，将他们安置在驱逐设施中，然后安排飞往天知道世界各地的航班，这是一场后勤噩梦。

It would also cost a lot of money.

这也会花费很多钱。

1:20:48 And don’t forget, Congress has to pay for all of this.

别忘了，国会必须为这一切买单。

So we can have DOGE or we can have mass deportation.

所以我们可以有 DOGE 或者我们可以有大规模驱逐出境。

So those two things are kind of irreconcilable, actually.

所以这两件事实际上是不可调和的。

There’s a lot of competing influences at play that people are not being real about at all.

有很多相互竞争的影响在起作用，但人们根本没有意识到这一点。

That was one of the tensions I had talking to Vivek is he’s big on mass deportation and big on making government more efficient, and it really feels like there’s a tension between those two in the short-term.

这是我与维韦克交谈的紧张关系之一，他热衷于大规模驱逐，热衷于提高政府效率，短期内确实感觉这两者之间存在紧张关系。

Well, yes, absolutely.

嗯，是的，绝对是。

1:21:19 Also, I mean, this is a good segue.

另外，我的意思是，这是一个很好的延续。

I’ve been wanting to talk about this.

我一直想谈谈这个。

I’m sympathetic to DOGE, to the whole Department of Government Efficiency.

我对 DOGE 和整个政府效率部表示同情。

How unreal is it that it’s called DOGE?

它被称为 DOGE 是多么不真实？

Actually, with Elon, it’s quite real.

事实上，对于埃隆来说，这是很真实的。

1:21:30 I guess I’ve accepted Elon as a major political figure in the US, but the DOGE committee, the Department of Government Efficiency is a non-statutory agency that has zero funding that Donald Trump says will advise OMB, the Office of Management and Budget.

我想我已经接受埃隆作为美国的主要政治人物，但 DOGE 委员会、政府效率部是一个非法定机构，其资金为零，唐纳德·特朗普表示将向 OMB（管理和预算办公室）提供建议。

1:21:49 Now, two things.

现在，有两件事。

Number one is, as I predicted, DOGE would become a “Blue Ribbon Commission”.

第一，正如我预测的那样，DOGE 将成为“蓝丝带委员会”。

So this is a non-statutory Blue Ribbon Commission that has been given authority to Vivek Ramaswamy and to Elon Musk.

这是一个非法定的蓝带委员会，已被授予维韦克·拉马斯瓦米和埃隆·马斯克的权力。

Secondary, their recommendations to government should be complete by July of 2026 according to the press release released by Trump.

其次，根据特朗普发布的新闻稿，他们向政府提出的建议应在 2026 年 7 月之前完成。

First of all, what that will mean is they’re probably going to need private funding to even set all this up.

首先，这意味着他们可能需要私人资金来建立这一切。

That’s great, not a problem for Elon, but you’re basically going to be able to have to commission GAO reports, Government Accountability Office and other reports and fact-finding missions across the government, which is fantastic.

这太好了，对埃隆来说不是问题，但你基本上可以委托政府问责局、政府问责办公室和整个政府的其他报告和实况调查任务，这太棒了。

Trump can even empower you to go through to every agency and to collect figures.

特朗普甚至可以授权你去每个机构收集数据。

1:22:32 None of it matters one iota if Republican appropriators in the House of Representatives care what you have to say.

如果众议院的共和党拨款者关心你要说什么，那么这一切都不重要。

Historically, they don’t give a shit what the executive office has to say.

从历史上看，他们根本不在乎行政办公室说什么。

So every year, the president releases his own budget.

因此，总统每年都会发布自己的预算。

It used to mean something, but in the last decade or so, it’s become completely meaningless.

它曾经是有意义的，但在过去十年左右的时间里，它变得完全没有意义了。

The House Ways and Means Committee and the People’s House are the ones who originate all appropriations and set up spending.

众议院筹款委员会和人民院是所有拨款和支出的发起者。

So that’s one is that DOGE in and of itself has no power.

所以，其中之一就是 DOGE 本身没有权力。

It has no ability to compel or force people to do anything.

它没有能力强迫或强迫人们做任何事情。

Its entire case for being, really, if you think about it mechanically, is to try and convince and provide a report to Republican legislators to be able to cut spending.

事实上，如果你机械地思考的话，它的整个理由就是试图说服共和党立法者并向他们提供一份报告，以削减开支。

So that’s that.

就是这样。

Now, we all know how Congress takes to government reports and whether they get acted on or not.

现在，我们都知道国会如何看待政府报告以及这些报告是否得到执行。

So that’s number one.

所以这是第一。

1:23:24 Number two is the figures that Elon is throwing out there.

第二是埃隆抛出的数据。

Again, I want to give them some advice because people do not understand federal government spending.

再次，我想给他们一些建议，因为人们不了解联邦政府的支出。

The absolute vast majority of government spending is entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, which are untouchable under Donald Trump and their most politically popular programs in the world, and military spending, discretionary non-military spending.

政府支出的绝大多数是社会保障和医疗保险等福利项目，这些项目在唐纳德·特朗普及其世界上最受欢迎的政治项目的领导下是不可动摇的，还有军事支出、可自由支配的非军事支出。

I don’t have the exact figure in front of me.

我面前没有确切的数字。

It’s a very, very small part of the federal budget.

这只是联邦预算中非常非常小的一部分。

1:23:53 Now, within that small slice, about 90% of that eight is bipartisan and is supported by everybody.

现在，在这一小部分中，这八个人中大约有 90% 是两党合作的，并且得到了所有人的支持。

NOAA, you know the hurricane guys?

NOAA，你知道飓风的家伙吗？

Like people like that, people who are flying into the eye of the hurricane, people who are government inspectors of X, Y and Z.

就像那样的人，飞入飓风中心的人，X、Y、Z 政府检查员的人。

The parts that are controversial that you’re actually able to touch, things like welfare programs like food stamps is an extraordinary small slice.

你实际上能够接触到的有争议的部分，例如食品券等福利计划，只是一小部分。

1:24:19 So what’s the number we put out there?

那么我们放在那里的数字是多少？

Five trillion?

五万亿？

Something like that?

类似的事情？

There is only one way to do that, and realistically under the current thing, you have to radically change the entire way that the Pentagon buys everything.

只有一种方法可以做到这一点，而且实际上在当前情况下，你必须从根本上改变五角大楼购买一切的整个方式。

And I support that, but I just want to be very, very clear, but I haven’t seen enough energy around that.

我支持这一点，但我只是想说得非常非常清楚，但我还没有看到足够的能量。

There’s this real belief in the US that we spend billions on all of these programs that are doing complete bullshit, but the absolute vast majority of it is military spending and entitlements.

美国确实相信，我们在所有这些项目上花费了数十亿美元，这些项目完全是胡说八道，但其中绝对绝大多数是军费开支和福利。

Trump has made clear entitlements are off the table.

特朗普已明确表示不会考虑任何权利。

It’s not going to happen.

这不会发生。

1:24:53 So the way that you’re going to be able to cut realistically military spending over a decade long period is to really change the way that the United States procures military equipment, hands out government contracts.

因此，要想在十年之内真正削减军费开支，就必须真正改变美国采购军事装备、发放政府合同的方式。

Elon actually does have the background to be able to accomplish this because he has had to wrangle with SpaceX and the bullshit that Boeing has been pulling for over a decade, but I really want everybody’s expectations to be very set around this.

埃隆实际上确实有能够实现这一目标的背景，因为他不得不与 SpaceX 和波音十多年来一直在胡说八道的事情发生争执，但我真的希望每个人的期望都围绕这一点设定。

Just remember, non-statutory, Blue Ribbon.

请记住，非法定的蓝丝带。

1:25:24 So if he’s serious about it, I just laid out all of these hurdles that he’s going to have to overcome, and I’m not saying him and Vivek aren’t serious dudes, but you got to really know the system to be able to accomplish this.

因此，如果他是认真的，我只是列出了他必须克服的所有这些障碍，我并不是说他和维韦克不是认真的人，但你必须真正了解系统才能实现这一目标。

So you just laid out the reality of how Washington works.

所以你刚刚阐述了华盛顿运作方式的现实。

1:25:36 To give the counterpoint that I think you’re probably also rooting for is that one is a statement like Peter Thiel said, “Don’t bet against Elon.”

给出一个我认为你可能也支持的对立点是，像彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）所说的那样，“不要与埃隆打赌。”

Sure.

当然。

One of the things that you don’t usually have with Blue Ribbon is the kind of megaphone that Elon has.

蓝丝带通常没有的东西之一就是埃隆拥有的那种扩音器。

True.

真的。

And I would even set the financial aspects aside, just the influence he has with the megaphone but also just with other people who are also really influential.

我什至会把财务方面放在一边，只考虑他对扩音器的影响力，以及其他真正有影响力的人的影响力。

1:25:57 I think that can have real power when backed by a populist movement.

我认为，在民粹主义运动的支持下，这可以产生真正的力量。

I don’t disagree with you, but let me give you a case where this just failed.

我不同意你的观点，但让我给你举一个失败的案例。

1:26:15 So Elon endorsed who for Senate Majority Leader?

那么埃隆支持谁担任参议院多数党领袖？

Rick Scott, right?

里克·斯科特，对吧？

Who got the least amount of votes in the US Senate for GOP leader?

谁在美国参议院共和党领袖得票数最少？

Rick Scott.

里克·斯科特.

John Thune is the person who got it.

约翰·图恩就是得到它的人。

Now, the reason I’m bringing that up, one of my favorite books, Master of the Senate by Robert Caro, part of the LBJ series, the Senate has an institution, it reveres independence.

现在，我之所以提出这个问题，是我最喜欢的书之一，罗伯特·卡罗的《参议院大师》，是林登·约翰逊系列的一部分，参议院有一个机构，它尊重独立性。

It reveres.

令人崇敬。

I mean, the entire theory of the Senate is to cool down the mob that is in the House of Representatives and to deliberate.

我的意思是，参议院的整个理论就是让众议院的暴民冷静下来并进行深思熟虑。

That’s its entire body.

这就是它的整个身体。

They are set up to be immune from public pressure.

他们的设立是为了免受公众压力。

1:26:55 Now, I’m not saying they can’t be pressured, but that example I just gave on Rick Scott is a very important one of he literally endorsed somebody for leader, so did Tucker Carlson, so did a lot of people online, and only 13 senators voted for Rick Scott.

现在，我并不是说他们不能受到压力，但我刚才举的里克·斯科特的例子是一个非常重要的例子，他确实支持某人担任领导人，塔克·卡尔森也是如此，网上很多人也是如此，只有 13 名参议员投票给里克·斯科特。

The truth is is that they don’t care.

事实是他们不在乎。

They’re set up where they’re marginally popular in their own home states, they’ll be able to win their primaries, and that’s all they really need to do to get elected, and they have six-year terms.

他们在自己的家乡稍稍受欢迎，他们将能够赢得初选，这就是他们当选所需要做的一切，而且他们的任期为六年。

They’re not even up for four years.

他们甚至还没有四年。

1:27:19 So will Elon still be interested in politics six years from now?

那么六年后埃隆还会对政治感兴趣吗？

That’s a legitimate question for a Republican senator.

对于共和党参议员来说，这是一个合理的问题。

So maybe he could get the House of Representatives to sign off maybe on some of his things, but there’s no guarantee that the Senate is going to agree with any of that.

因此，也许他可以让众议院批准他的一些事情，但不能保证参议院会同意其中任何一项。

1:27:34 There’s a story that Caro tells in Master of the Senate book, which I love, where Thomas Jefferson was in Paris during the writing of the Constitution, and he asked Washington, he said, “Why did you put in a Senate, a bicameral legislature?” And Washington said, “Why did you pour your tea into a saucer?” and Jefferson goes, “To cool it,” and Washington says, “Just so,” to explain it.

卡罗在我喜欢的《参议院大师》一书中讲述了一个故事，托马斯·杰斐逊在起草宪法期间在巴黎，他问华盛顿，他说，“你为什么要设立参议院，一个两院制的立法机构？”华盛顿说：“你为什么把茶倒进碟子里？”杰斐逊说：“为了冷静下来”，华盛顿则说：“正是如此”来解释这一点。

He was a man of very few words.

他是一个话很少的人。

He was a brilliant man.

他是一个才华横溢的人。

Okay.

好的。

1:28:03 So you actually outlined the most likely thing that’s going to happen with DOGE as it hits the wall of Washington.

所以你实际上概述了 DOGE 撞上华盛顿墙时最有可能发生的事情。

What is the most successful thing that can be pulled off?

可以完成的最成功的事情是什么？

The most successful thing they could do is right now, I think they’re really obsessed with designing cuts and identifying cuts.

他们现在能做的最成功的事情就是，我认为他们真的很痴迷于设计剪裁和识别剪裁。

1:28:17 I would redesign systems, systems of procurement.

我会重新设计系统、采购系统。

I would redesign the way that we have processes in place to dispense taxpayer dollars because the truth is is that appropriations itself, again, are set by the United States Congress, but the way that those appropriations are spent by the government, the executive has some discretionary authority.

我会重新设计我们分配纳税人资金的流程，因为事实是，拨款本身是由美国国会制定的，但政府如何使用这些拨款，行政部门拥有一定的自由裁量权。

1:28:49 So your ability as the executive to be a good steward of the taxpayer money and to redesign a system which I actually think Elon could be good at this and Vivek too in terms of their entrepreneurial spirit is the entire Pentagon procurement thing, it needs to be burned to the ground.

因此，作为行政人员，你有能力成为纳税人资金的好管家，并重新设计一个系统，我实际上认为埃隆可能擅长于此，维韦克也有企业家精神，这是整个五角大楼采购的事情，它需要被烧毁。

Number one, it’s bad for the Pentagon.

第一，这对五角大楼不利。

It gives them substandard equipment.

它给了他们不合格的设备。

It rewards very old weapons systems and programs and thinking that can be easily defeated by people who are studying that for vulnerabilities.

它奖励非常古老的武器系统和程序，以及那些很容易被研究其漏洞的人击败的思想。

The perfect example is all of this drone warfare in Ukraine and in Russia.

乌克兰和俄罗斯的无人机战争就是一个完美的例子。

I mean, drone warfare costs almost nothing, and yet drone swarms and hypersonic missiles pose huge dangers to US systems, which cost more than hundreds of billions of dollars.

我的意思是，无人机战争几乎不需要任何成本，但无人机群和高超音速导弹对美国系统构成了巨大危险，其成本超过数千亿美元。

1:29:33 So my point is that giving nimble procurement and systemic change in the way that we think about executing the mission that Congress does give you actually could save the most amount of money in the long run.

所以我的观点是，从长远来看，在我们考虑执行国会赋予你的使命的方式上进行灵活的采购和系统性的改变实际上可以节省最多的钱。

That’s where I would really focus in on.

这才是我真正关注的地方。

1:29:48 The other one is, counter to everything I just said, is maybe they would listen.

另一个问题是，与我刚才所说的相反，他们也许会听。

Maybe the Republicans are like, “Yeah, okay.

也许共和党人会说：“是的，好吧。

Let’s do it.” The problem again though is swing state people who need to get reelected, they need to do one thing.

让我们开始吧。”但问题又是摇摆州的人需要连任，他们需要做一件事。

They need to deliver for their district.

他们需要为他们的地区提供服务。

They need to run on stuff, and nobody has ever run on cutting money for your state.

他们需要靠物质来竞选，但从来没有人靠为你的州削减资金而竞选。

They have run on bringing money to your state.

他们一直在为你的州带来金钱。

And that’s why earmarks and a lot of these other things are extraordinarily popular in Congress is because it’s such an easy way to show constituents how you’re working for them whenever it does come reelection time.

这就是为什么专项拨款和许多其他事情在国会非常受欢迎，因为这是一种向选民展示你在连任时如何为他们工作的简单方法。

So it’s a very difficult system.

所以这是一个非常困难的系统。

1:30:28 And I also want to tell people who are frustrated by this, I share your frustration, but the system is designed to work this way.

我还想告诉那些对此感到沮丧的人，我和你们一样感到沮丧，但这个系统就是设计成这样工作的。

And for two centuries, the Senate has stood as a bulwark against literally every popular change, and because of that, it’s designed to make sure that it’s so popular for long enough that it has to become inevitable before the status quo can change.

两个世纪以来，参议院一直是抵御几乎每一次流行变革的堡垒，正因为如此，它的设计目的是确保它足够长的时间如此受欢迎，以至于在现状改变之前它必须成为不可避免的。

That’s really, really frustrating, but you should take comfort in that it’s always been that way, so it’s been okay.

这真的非常非常令人沮丧，但你应该感到安慰，因为事情一直都是这样，所以没关系。

Well, as I’ve learned from one of the recommendations of The Age of Acrimony, I feel embarrassed that I didn’t know that senators used to not be elected.

嗯，正如我从《尖酸刻薄的时代》的一项建议中了解到的那样，我感到很尴尬，因为我不知道参议员过去不是通过选举产生的。

What a crazy system, huh?

多么疯狂的系统啊？

Yeah.

是的。

1:31:05 I mean, many of the things we take for granted now as defining our democracy was kind of invented, developed after the Civil War in the 50 years after the Civil War.

我的意思是，我们现在认为理所当然的许多定义我们民主的东西都是在内战后 50 年内发明和发展的。

Absolutely correct.

绝对正确。

1:31:19 Age of Acrimony, oh, my God, I love that book.

《尖酸刻薄的时代》，哦，天哪，我喜欢那本书。

I cannot recommend it enough.

我极力推荐它。

It is so important.

这非常重要。

And one of the biggest mistakes that Americans make is that we study periods where greatness happened, but we don’t often study periods where nothing happened or where really bad shit happened.

美国人犯的最大错误之一是我们研究发生了伟大事件的时期，但我们并不经常研究什么都没有发生或发生了真正糟糕的事情的时期。

We don’t spend nearly enough.

我们的支出还远远不够。

Americans know about FDR.

美国人都知道罗斯福。

They don’t really know anything about the depression or how we got there.

他们对大萧条一无所知，也不知道我们是如何陷入大萧条的。

1:31:43 What was it like to be alive in the United States in 1840?

1840 年生活在美国是什么感觉？

Right?

正确的？

Nobody thinks about that really because it’s kind of an in-between time in history.

没有人真正考虑这一点，因为这是历史上的一个中间时期。

There are people who lived their entire lives, who were born, who had to live through those times, who were just as conscientious and intelligent as you and I are and were just trying to figure shit out and things felt really big.

有些人度过了一生，他们出生了，他们必须经历那些时光，他们和你我一样认真和聪明，只是想弄清楚事情的严重性。

So the Age of Acrimony is a time where it’s almost completely ignored outside of the Gilded age aspect.

因此，尖刻时代是一个除了镀金时代之外几乎完全被忽视的时代。

1:32:06 But like you just said, it was a time where progressive reform of government and of the tension between civil rights, extraordinary wealth and democracy and really the reigning in of big business, so many of our foundations happened exactly in that time.

但正如你刚才所说，那是一个政府渐进改革、公民权利、非凡财富和民主之间的紧张关系以及大企业真正统治的时代，我们的许多基金会正是在那个时期发生的。

And I take a lot of comfort from that book because one of the things I learned from the book is that voter participation is highest when people are pissed off, not when they’re happy, and that’s such a counterintuitive thing, but voter participation goes down when the system is working.

我从这本书中得到了很多安慰，因为我从书中学到的一件事是，当人们生气时，选民的参与度最高，而不是当他们高兴的时候，这是一件违反直觉的事情，但当系统正常运行时，选民的参与度就会下降。

1:32:39 So 2020, right?

那么2020年，对吗？

I think we can all agree it was very tense election.

我想我们都同意这是一次非常紧张的选举。

That’s also why it had the highest voter participation ever.

这也是它拥有有史以来最高选民参与度的原因。

2024, very high rates of participation.

2024 年，参与率非常高。

Same thing.

同样的事情。

People are pissed off, and that’s actually what drives them to the vote, but something that I take comfort in that is that people being pissed off and people going out to vote, it actually does have major impact on the system because otherwise, the status quo is basically allowed to continue and so-

人们很生气，这实际上是促使他们投票的原因，但令我感到安慰的是，人们很生气，人们出去投票，这实际上确实对系统产生了重大影响，因为否则，现状基本上可以继续下去，所以-

1:33:00 …

……

[inaudible 01:33:00] the status quo is basically allowed to continue.

[听不清 01:33:00] 现状基本上可以继续下去。

And so, yeah, like you just said, I mean, direct election of senators…

所以，是的，就像你刚才说的，我的意思是，参议员直接选举......

I mean, there are probably people alive today who were born when there was no direct election of senators, which is an insane thing to think about.

我的意思是，今天还活着的人可能是在没有参议员直接选举的情况下出生的，这是一件想想就疯狂的事情。

I mean, there’d be almost 100 or so.

我的意思是，大约有 100 个左右。

But the point is that that time, it was so deeply corrupt, and it was one where the quasi aristocracy from the early days leading into the Gilded Age, were able to enforce their will upon the people.

但关键是，那个时代腐败如此严重，从早期进入镀金时代开始，准贵族就能够将自己的意志强加于人民。

But you can take comfort in that that was one of those areas where Americans were so fed up with it, they changed the constitution and actually force the aristocrats in power to give their own power.

但你可以放心，这是美国人对此感到厌倦的领域之一，他们改变了宪法，实际上迫使当权的贵族放弃自己的权力。

It’s like our version of when they flipped power and took away the legislative power of the House of Lords in the UK.

这就像我们的版本中他们翻转权力并剥夺了英国上议院的立法权。

I just think that’s amazing and it’s such a cool thing about our country and the UK too.

我只是觉得这太棒了，这对我们的国家和英国来说也是一件很酷的事情。

It’s the continued battle between the people and the elite.

这是人民与精英之间的持续战斗。

1:33:51 Right?

正确的？

And we should mention not just the direct election of senators, but the election of candidates for a party.

我们不仅应该提到参议员的直接选举，还应该提到政党候选人的选举。

Yes.

是的。

That was also invented.

这也被发明了。

1:34:05 It used to be that the, quote-unquote, party bosses, I say that with half a chuckle, chose the candidate.

我半笑着说，过去，党的领导们选择了候选人。

Yeah.

是的。

1:34:15 The whole system is nuts.

整个系统都疯了。

The way that we currently experience politics is such a modern invention.

我们目前体验政治的方式是一项现代发明。

With a little asterisk with Kamala Harris, but-

卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）加了一个小星号，但是——

Right.

对。

1:34:22 Yeah, good point.

是的，好点。

Well, that was actually more of a mean reversion, right?

嗯，这实际上更像是均值回归，对吧？

We’re living in an extraordinarily new era where we actually have more input than ever on who our candidates are.

我们生活在一个非常新的时代，我们实际上比以往任何时候都对我们的候选人有更多的投入。

It used to be…

它曾经是……

This is crazy.

这太疯狂了。

So the conventions have always taken place two months before, right?

所以大会总是在两个月前举行，对吧？

Imagine a world where you did not know who the nominee was going to be before that convention, and the nominee literally was decided at that convention by those party bosses.

想象一下这样一个世界，在大会之前你不知道提名人是谁，而提名人实际上是由那些党魁在大会上决定的。

Even crazier, there used to be a standard in American politics where presidents did not directly campaign.

更疯狂的是，美国政治曾经有一个标准，总统不直接竞选。

They, in fact, did not even comment about the news or mention their opponent’s names.

事实上，他们甚至没有对这个消息发表评论，也没有提及对手的名字。

They would give speeches from their doorstep, but it was unseemly for them to engage in direct politics.

他们会在家门口发表演讲，但直接参与政治是不合适的。

Yeah.

是的。

1:35:05 You would not get a Bernie Sanders.

你不会得到伯尼·桑德斯这样的人。

No.

不。

You would not get a Donald Trump.

你不会得到唐纳德·特朗普。

Obama, Bill Clinton…

奥巴马、比尔·克林顿……

1:35:09 I mean, basically every president from John F.

我的意思是，基本上约翰·肯尼迪时期的每一位总统。

Kennedy onwards has been a product of the new system.

肯尼迪以后一直是新体制的产物。

Every president prior to that has been much more of the older system.

在此之前的每一位总统都更多地遵循旧制度。

There was an in-between period post-FDR where things were really changing, but the primary system itself had its first true big win under John F.

罗斯福之后的一段中间时期，情况确实发生了变化，但初选制度本身在约翰·F·肯尼迪的领导下取得了第一次真正的重大胜利。

Kennedy.

肯尼迪.

I think that the lesson from that is there’s a collective wisdom to the people.

我认为从中得到的教训是，人们拥有集体智慧。

1:35:28 Right?

正确的？

I think so.

我想是的。

I think it works.

我认为它有效。

Yeah.

是的。

1:35:33 I mean, well, okay, I’ll steel man it.

我的意思是，好吧，我会全力以赴。

We had some great presidents in the party boss era.

我们在党魁时代有一些伟大的总统。

FDR was a great president.

罗斯福是一位伟大的总统。

FDR was the master of coalitional politics of his ability.

罗斯福是他能力范围内的联合政治大师。

In fact, what really made him a genius was his ability to get this overthrow, the support of a lot of the corruption and the elite Democrats to take control in there at the convention, and then combine his personal popularity to fuse all systems of power where he had the elites basically under his boot because he was the king, and he used his popular power and his support from the people to be able to enforce things up and down.

事实上，真正让他成为天才的是他有能力推翻这次选举，得到许多腐败分子和精英民主党人的支持，在大会上取得控制权，然后结合他个人的声望，融合所有权力体系，因为他是国王，所以他基本上让精英受其影响，他利用自己的民众权力和人民的支持，能够上下强制执行事情。

1:36:13 I mean, even in the party boss era, a lot of the people we revere really came out of that.

我的意思是，即使在党魁时代，我们尊敬的很多人也确实是从那个时代出来的。

People like Abraham Lincoln.

像亚伯拉罕·林肯这样的人。

I mean, I don’t think Abraham Lincoln would have won a party primary in 1860.

我的意思是，我认为亚伯拉罕·林肯不会在 1860 年赢得党内初选。

There’s no chance.

没有机会了。

He won, luck, thank God, from an insane process in the 1860 Republican Convention.

感谢上帝，他在 1860 年共和党大会的疯狂进程中获胜，真是幸运。

People should go read about that because that was wild.

人们应该去阅读相关内容，因为那很疯狂。

I think we were this close to not having Lincoln as president.

我认为我们差点就没有林肯担任总统了。

And, yeah, I mean, Teddy Roosevelt, there’s so many that I could point to who made great impacts on history.

是的，我的意思是，泰迪·罗斯福，我可以指出很多对历史产生巨大影响的人。

So the system does find a way to still produce good stuff.

所以这个系统确实找到了一种仍然能生产出好东西的方法。

That was a beautiful diversion from the Doge discussion.

这是对总督讨论的一个很好的转移。

1:36:49 If you’re going to return briefly to Doge, so you talked about cost-cutting, but there’s also increasing the efficiency of government, which you also talked about with procurement, and maybe we can throw into the pile, the 400-plus federal agencies.

如果你要简单地回到Doge，那么你谈到了削减成本，但也提到了提高政府效率，你也谈到了采购，也许我们可以把400多个联邦机构也归为一类。

So let’s take another perspective on what success might look like.

因此，让我们从另一个角度来看待成功是什么样子的。

So radically successful Doge, would it basically cut a lot of federal agencies?

总督如此彻底成功，它基本上会削减很多联邦机构吗？

Probably combine.

应该是结合吧

Combine?

结合？

Okay, so I can give great examples of this because I have great insight.

好的，我可以举一些很好的例子，因为我有很好的洞察力。

1:37:24 For each agency will often use different payroll systems.

每个机构通常会使用不同的薪资系统。

They’ll have different internal processes.

他们将有不同的内部流程。

Right?

正确的？

That makes no sense, and it’s all because it’s antiquated.

这毫无意义，因为它已经过时了。

Now, everybody always talks about changing it, but there are a lot of party interests about why certain people get certain things.

现在，每个人总是谈论改变它，但是对于为什么某些人得到某些东西有很多政党利益。

The real problem with the government, the people like us who are private, and for example, when you want to do something, you can just do it.

真正的问题在于政府，像我们这样的私人人士，例如，当你想做某事时，你就可以做。

So I was listening to a really interesting analysis about law enforcement and the military.

所以我正在听一个关于执法和军队的非常有趣的分析。

So I think the story was that National Guard guys were assigned to help with the border, and they were trying to provide…

所以我认为这个故事是国民警卫队的人被派去帮助边境，他们试图提供……

I think it was translation services to people at border patrol.

我认为这是为边境巡逻人员提供的翻译服务。

But somebody had to come down and be like, “Hey, this has got to stop.

但必须有人站出来说：“嘿，这件事必须停止。

According to US Code X, Y, and Z, the United States military cannot help with law enforcement abilities here.”

根据美国代码 X、Y 和 Z，美国军方无法在此提供执法能力。”

1:38:24 And so even though that makes absolutely no sense, because they’re all work, there are literal legal statutes in place that prevent you from doing the most efficient thing possible.

因此，即使这完全没有意义，因为它们都是工作，但确实有法律法规阻止你做最有效的事情。

So for some reason, we have to have a ton of Spanish speakers in SouthCom, in the US Command that is responsible for South America, who literally cannot help with a crisis at the border.

因此，出于某种原因，我们在负责南美事务的美国司令部南司令部必须有大量讲西班牙语的人，而他们实际上无法帮助解决边境危机。

Now, maybe you can find some legal chicanery to make that work, but, man, you got to have an attorney general who knows what he’s doing.

现在，也许你可以找到一些法律上的欺骗手段来实现这一点，但是，伙计，你必须有一位知道自己在做什么的司法部长。

You need a White House counsel.

你需要一位白宫顾问。

You need to make sure that shit stands up in a court of law.

你需要确保这些狗屎在法庭上站得住脚。

I mean, it’s not so simple.

我的意思是，事情没那么简单。

Whereas let’s say you have a software right here and you want to get a new software, you can just do it.

假设您这里有一个软件并且您想获得一个新软件，您就可以这样做。

You can hire whoever you want.

你可以雇用任何你想要的人。

When you’re the government, there’s a whole process you got to go through about bidding, and it just takes forever and it is so inefficient.

当你是政府时，你必须经历整个招标过程，这需要很长时间，而且效率很低。

1:39:12 But unfortunately, the inefficiency is really derivative of a lot of legal statutes, and that is something that, again, actually radically successful Doge, quote-unquote, would be study the law, and then change it.

但不幸的是，效率低下实际上是许多法律法规的衍生品，而这实际上是彻底成功的总督，引用不引用，将研究法律，然后改变它。

Instead of cost- cutting, cut this program or whatever, like I just said about why do different systems use payroll, just say that you can change the statute under which new software can be updated, let’s say, after 90 days.

与其削减成本，不如削减这个计划或其他什么，就像我刚才所说的为什么不同的系统使用工资单一样，只需说你可以改变新软件更新的法规，比如说，90 天后。

I’ve heard stories of people who work for the government who still have IBM mainframe in 2024 that they’re still working, because those systems have never been updated.

我听说过一些为政府工作的人到 2024 年仍然拥有 IBM 大型机的故事，他们仍在工作，因为这些系统从未更新过。

There’s also a big problem with a lot of this clearance stuff.

很多此类清关的东西也存在一个大问题。

That’s where a lot of inefficiency happens because a lot of contractors can only work based upon previous clearance that they already got.

这就是效率低下的地方，因为许多承包商只能根据他们之前已经获得的许可进行工作。

Achieving a clearance is very expensive.

获得许可的费用非常昂贵。

It’s very lengthy process.

这是一个非常漫长的过程。

I’m not saying it shouldn’t be, talking about security clearance, but it does naturally create a very small pool that you can draw some contracts fund.

我并不是说不应该这样，谈论安全许可，但它确实自然地创建了一个非常小的资金池，您可以提取一些合同资金。

1:40:14 And I even mean stuff like the janitor at the Pentagon needs a security service, right?

我什至是说五角大楼的看门人需要安全服务，对吧？

So clearance.

所以清关。

So there’s only five people who can even apply for that contract.

所以只有五个人可以申请这份合同。

Well, naturally, in an interim monopoly like that, he’s going to jack his price up because he literally has a moat around his product.

嗯，自然地，在这样的临时垄断中，他会抬高价格，因为他的产品确实有护城河。

Whereas if you were hiring a…

而如果你正在雇佣一个……

Whatever, anybody for anything, that type of credentialism and legal regime, it doesn’t matter at all.

不管怎样，任何人为任何事，这种类型的凭证主义和法律制度，根本不重要。

So there are a million problems like this that people in government run into, and that is what I would see is the most successful.

因此，政府人员会遇到一百万个这样的问题，而我认为这是最成功的。

Paperwork slows everything down, and it feels impossible to break through that in a incremental way.

文书工作会减慢一切，而且感觉不可能以渐进的方式突破这一点。

It’s so hard.

太难了。

It feels like the only way to do it is to literally shut down agencies in some radical way, and then build up from scratch.

感觉唯一的方法就是以某种激进的方式关闭机构，然后从头开始建立。

1:40:56 Of course, as you highlight, that’s going to be opposed by a lot of people within government.

当然，正如您所强调的，这会遭到政府内部很多人的反对。

Yeah.

是的。

1:41:13 Well, historically, there’s only one way to do it, and it’s a really bad answer.

嗯，从历史上看，只有一种方法可以做到这一点，而且这是一个非常糟糕的答案。

War.

战争。

War.

战争。

1:41:17 Yes.

是的。

I was going to say, basically you have the consensus where, “Okay, all this stupid bureaucratic bullshit we’ve been doing, we need to put that aside.

我想说的是，基本上你们已经达成共识，“好吧，我们一直在做的所有这些愚蠢的官僚主义废话，我们需要把它放在一边。

Get the fuck out of here.

他妈的离开这里。

We need to win a war.

我们需要赢得一场战争。

So all the paperwork, all the lawyers go leave, please,”

所以所有的文书工作，所有的律师都请离开，”

Yeah.

是的。

1:41:37 No, but I want people to really understand that.

不，但我希望人们真正理解这一点。

Up until 1865 or 1860, I forget the exact year, we didn’t even have national currency.

直到1865年或1860年，我忘记了具体年份，我们甚至没有本国货币。

And then we were like, “Well, we need a greenback.” And prior to that, people would freak out if we were talking about having national currency, greenback backed by the US government and all of that.

然后我们说，“好吧，我们需要美元。”在此之前，如果我们谈论拥有本国货币、美国政府支持的美元等等，人们会感到害怕。

Not even a question, passed in two weeks in the US Congress.

美国国会两周内连一个问题都没有通过。

An income tax eventually went away, but not even in the realm of possibility, and they decided to pass it.

所得税最终取消了，但即使是在不可能的范围内，他们也决定通过它。

Same thing after World War I.

第一次世界大战后也是如此。

And you think about how World War II…

你想想第二次世界大战如何......

I mean, World War II just fundamentally changed the entire way the United States government works.

我的意思是，第二次世界大战从根本上改变了美国政府的整个运作方式。

Even the DHS, which I mentioned earlier, the Department of Homeland Security, it didn’t even exist prior to 9/11.

即使是我之前提到的国土安全部，即国土安全部，在 9/11 之前根本不存在。

It was done as response to 9/11 to coalesce all of those agencies under one branch to make sure that nothing like that could ever happen again.

此举是为了应对 9/11 事件，将所有这些机构合并到一个分支机构下，以确保类似情况不会再次发生。

And so historically, unfortunately, absolute shitshow disaster war is the only thing that moves and throws the paperwork off the table.

因此，不幸的是，从历史上看，绝对的狗屎灾难战争是唯一能够移动并把文书工作从桌子上扔掉的事情。

And I wish I wasn’t such a downer, but I’ve read too much and I’ve had enough experience now in Washington to just see how these dreams get crushed instantly.

我希望我不是那么沮丧，但我读了太多书，现在在华盛顿有足够的经验，可以看到这些梦想如何立即破灭。

And I wish it wasn’t that way.

我希望事情不是那样。

I mean, it’s a cool idea and I want people who are inspired, who are getting into politics to think that they can do something, but I want them to be realistic too, and I want them to know what they’re signing up for whenever they do something like that, and the Titanic amount of work it’s going to take for you to be able to accomplish something.

我的意思是，这是一个很酷的想法，我希望那些受到启发的人，那些进入政界的人认为他们可以做一些事情，但我也希望他们现实一点，我希望他们知道每当他们做这样的事情时他们正在签署什么，以及要完成一些事情需要付出多少泰坦尼克号的工作。

Yeah.

是的。

1:43:08 But I’ve also heard a lot of people in Silicon Valley laughing when Elon rolled in and fired 90% of Twitter.

但当埃隆介入并解雇 90% 的 Twitter 员工时，我也听到很多硅谷人在笑。

Here’s this guy, Elon Musk-

这是这个人，埃隆·马斯克——

You are absolutely correct.

你是绝对正确的。

…

……

1:43:18 knows nothing about running a social media company.

对运营社交媒体公司一无所知。

Of course, you need all these servers.

当然，您需要所有这些服务器。

Of course, you need all these employees.

当然，您需要所有这些员工。

And nevertheless, the service keeps running.

尽管如此，该服务仍在继续运行。

He figured it out, and you have to give him eternal credit for that.

他想通了，你必须为此给予他永恒的赞誉。

1:43:27 I guess the difference is there was no law that he could fire them.

我想区别在于没有法律规定他可以解雇他们。

At the end of the day, he owned the company.

最终，他拥有了这家公司。

He had total discretion of his ability to move.

他完全可以自行决定自己的行动能力。

So I’m not even saying his ideas are bad.

所以我什至不是说他的想法不好。

I’m saying that what makes him such an incredible visionary entrepreneur, it’s movement, it’s deference at times to the right people, but also the knowledge of every individual piece of the machine and his ability to come in and execute his full vision at any time and override any of the managers.

我想说的是，是什么让他成为如此令人难以置信的有远见的企业家，是他的行动，是对合适的人的尊重，也是他对机器每个部分的了解，以及他随时介入并执行他的全部愿景并凌驾于任何经理之上的能力。

1:44:04 So I talked previously about the professional managerial class and the managerial revolution.

所以我前面讲了职业经理阶层和管理革命。

Elon is one of the few people who’s ever built a multi-billion-dollar company who has not actually fallen victim to the managerial revolution and against entrepreneurship and innovation that happens there.

埃隆是少数几个曾创建过价值数十亿美元的公司但实际上没有成为管理革命和反对创业和创新受害者的人之一。

There are very few people who can do it.

能做到这一点的人很少。

Elon, Steve Jobs.

埃隆、史蒂夫·乔布斯。

But what do we learn is that, unfortunately, after Steve died, Apple basically did succumb to the managerial revolution and has become the product…

但我们了解到的是，不幸的是，在史蒂夫去世后，苹果基本上屈服于管理革命，并成为了产品……

They make all their money by printing services and making it impossible to leave this ecosystem as opposed to building the most cool product ever.

他们通过印刷服务赚钱，并且不可能离开这个生态系统，而不是构建有史以来最酷的产品。

As much as I love my Vision Pro, don’t get me wrong.

尽管我非常喜欢我的 Vision Pro，但请不要误会我的意思。

I think you just admitted that you’re part of a cult.

我想你刚刚承认你是邪教的一部分。

I know.

我知道。

1:44:44 I literally am.

我确实是。

I am.

我是。

I fully admit it.

我完全承认。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

1:44:47 I miss Steve.

我想念史蒂夫。

The grass is greener on the other side.

另一边的草更绿。

1:44:48 Come join us.

快来加入我们吧。

Okay.

好的。

Whether it’s Elon or somebody else, what gives you hope about something like a radical transformation of government towards efficiency, towards being more slim?

无论是埃隆还是其他人，是什么让你对政府向效率、更加精简的彻底转型抱有希望？

What gives you hope that that will be possible?

是什么给你带来希望，让这成为可能？

Well, I wouldn’t put it that way.

好吧，我不会那样说。

1:45:07 I don’t think slimness in and of itself is a good thing.

我认为苗条本身并不是一件好事。

What I care about is the relationship to people and its government.

我关心的是与人民及其政府的关系。

So the biggest problem that we have is that we have a complete loss of faith in all of our institutions.

因此，我们面临的最大问题是我们对所有机构完全失去信心。

And I really encourage people…

我真的鼓励人们……

I don’t think people can quite understand what the relationship between America and its government was like after World War II and after FDR.

我认为人们不太能理解二战后和罗斯福之后美国与其政府之间的关系是什么样的。

90% of the people trusted the government.

90%的民众信任政府。

That’s crazy.

这太疯狂了。

When the president said something, they were like, “Okay, he’s not lying.”

当总统说话时，他们会说：“好吧，他没有说谎。”

1:45:41 Think about our cynical attitude towards politicians today.

想想我们今天对政客的愤世嫉俗的态度。

That is largely the fault of Lyndon Johnson and of Richard Nixon and that entire fallout period of Vietnam.

这很大程度上是林登·约翰逊和理查德·尼克松以及越南战争的整个余波时期的错。

Vietnam, in particular, really broke the American character and its ability and its relationship with government, and we’ve never recovered faith in institutions ever since that.

尤其是越南，确实破坏了美国的性格、能力以及与政府的关系，从那以后我们再也没有恢复对机构的信心。

And it’s really unfortunate.

这真的很不幸。

So what makes me hopeful, at least this time, is anytime a president wins a popular vote and an election is they have the ability to reset and to actually try and build something that is new.

因此，至少这一次，让我充满希望的是，每当总统赢得普选和选举时，他们就有能力重置并真正尝试建立新的东西。

And so what I would hope is that this is different from the first Trump administration in which the mandate for Donald Trump is actually carried out competently.

因此，我希望这与第一届特朗普政府有所不同，在第一届特朗普政府中，唐纳德·特朗普的授权实际上得到了有效执行。

Yes, he can do his antics, which got him elected.

是的，他可以做他的滑稽动作，这让他当选。

At this point, we can’t deny it.

此刻，我们无法否认。

The McDonald’s thing is hilarious.

麦当劳的事情很搞笑。

It’s funny.

这很有趣。

It is.

这是。

People love it.

人们喜欢它。

People like the podcasting.

人们喜欢播客。

People like-

人们喜欢——

Garbage truck.

垃圾车。

The garbage truck.

垃圾车。

1:46:36 Yeah, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

They like the stunts, and he will always excel and he will continue to do that.

他们喜欢这些特技，他将永远表现出色，并将继续这样做。

There are policy and other things that he can and should do, like the pursuit of no war, like solving the immigration question, and also really figuring out our economy the way that it currently runs and changing it so that the actual American dream is more achievable.

他可以而且应该做一些政策和其他事情，比如追求不战争，比如解决移民问题，以及真正弄清楚我们的经济目前的运行方式并改变它，以便真正的美国梦更容易实现。

And housing is one of the chief problems that we have right now.

住房是我们目前面临的主要问题之一。

The real thing is Donald Trump was elected on the backs of the working man.

真正的事情是唐纳德·特朗普是在工人的支持下当选的。

I mean, it’s just true.

我的意思是，这是真的。

1:47:07 Households under $100,000 voted for Donald Trump.

10万美元以下的家庭投票支持唐纳德·特朗普。

Maybe they didn’t do so for economic reasons.

也许他们这样做不是出于经济原因。

I think a lot of them did for economic, a lot of them did for immigration, for cultural.

我认为他们中的很多人是为了经济而做的，很多人是为了移民、文化而做的。

But you still owe them something.

但你还是欠他们一些东西。

And I would hope that they could carry something out in that respect that is not a similar continuation and chaotic vibe of the first time where everything felt like it’d explode at any time with staffing, with even his policy or what he cared about or his ability to pursue.

我希望他们能够在这方面采取一些行动，而不是像第一次那样的延续和混乱的氛围，一切都感觉随时会因人员配备而爆炸，甚至是他的政策或他关心的事情或他追求的能力。

And a lot of that does come back to personnel.

其中很多确实回到了人员方面。

So I’m concerned in some respects, I’m not thrilled in some respects, I’m happy in some respects, but it remains to be seen how he’s going to do it.

所以我在某些方面感到担心，在某些方面我并不兴奋，在某些方面我很高兴，但他将如何做到这一点还有待观察。

To the degree it’s possible to see Trumpism and MAGA as a coherent ideology, what do you think are the central pillars of it?

在某种程度上，可以将特朗普主义和 MAGA 视为一种连贯的意识形态，您认为它的核心支柱是什么？

MAGA is a rejection of cultural elitism.

MAGA 是对文化精英主义的拒绝。

1:47:54 That’s what I would say.

这就是我想说的。

Cultural elitism though has many different categories.

文化精英主义有许多不同的类别。

Immigration is one, right?

移民就是其中之一，对吗？

Is that cultural elitism and cultural liberalism has a fundamental belief that immigration in and of itself is a natural good at any and all levels, that all immigrants are replacement level, that there is no difference between them.

文化精英主义和文化自由主义有一个基本信念，即移民本身在任何层次上都是一种自然利益，所有移民都是更替水平，他们之间没有区别。

Cultural elitism in a foreign policy context comes back to a lot of that human rights democracy stuff that I was talking about earlier, which divorces American values from American interests and says that actually American values are American interests.

外交政策背景下的文化精英主义又回到了我之前谈到的许多人权民主的东西，它将美国价值观与美国利益分开，并说实际上美国价值观就是美国利益。

Cultural elitism and liberalism leads to the worship of the post-civil rights era of bureaucracy that I talked about from those two books of DEI or, quote-unquote, woke, and of progressive social ideology.

文化精英主义和自由主义导致了对官僚主义后民权时代的崇拜，我在《DEI》或（不引述的）《觉醒》这两本书中谈到了这一点，以及对进步社会意识形态的崇拜。

So I would put all those together as ultimately what MAGA is.

所以我会把所有这些放在一起，最终说明 MAGA 是什么。

It is a, “Screw you.”

这是一句“管你的”。

1:48:53 I once drove past…

有一次我开车经过…

It was in rural Nevada, and I was driving and I drove past the biggest sign I’ve ever seen, political sign, to this day.

那是在内华达州的乡村，我开车经过了迄今为止我所见过的最大的标志牌，政治标志牌。

And it was in 2020.

那是在 2020 年。

It just said, “Trump, fuck your feelings.” And I still believe that is the most coherent MAGA thing I’ve ever seen.

它只是说，“特朗普，操你的感情。”我仍然相信这是我见过的最连贯的 MAGA 事物。

Because everyone’s always like, “How can a neocon, and Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK and all these other people, how can they all exist under the same umbrella?” And I’m like, “It’s very simple.

因为每个人总是喜欢，“新保守派、图尔西·加巴德、RFK 和所有其他人，他们怎么可能存在于同一个保护伞下？”我想，“这很简单。

All of them have rejected the cultural elite, in their own way, certainly, but they’ve arrived at the same place.

他们当然都以自己的方式拒绝了文化精英，但他们都到达了同一个地方。

It’s an umbrella.

这是一把雨伞。

And it’s an umbrella fundamentally, which has nothing to do with the status quo and with the currently established cultural elite.

从根本上说，它是一把保护伞，与现状和现有的文化精英无关。

That doesn’t mean they’re not elite and they’re not rich in their own regards, that doesn’t mean they don’t disagree, but that’s the one thing that unites the entire party.” And so that’s the way I would put it.

这并不意味着他们不是精英，他们在自己的方面并不富有，这并不意味着他们没有不同意见，但这是团结整个党的一件事。”这就是我的说法。

Anti-cultural elite, is that synonymous with anti-establishment?

反文化精英，是反建制的代名词吗？

1:49:46 So basic distrust of all institutions?

对所有机构都这么基本不信任吗？

Is elitism connected to institutions?

精英主义与制度有关吗？

Yes, absolutely, because elites are the ones who runs our institutions.

是的，绝对如此，因为精英是管理我们机构的人。

1:49:56 That’s said, anti-establishment is really not the right word because there are a lot of left-wingers who are anti-establishment, right?

话虽如此，“反建制”这个词确实不太恰当，因为反建制的左翼分子有很多，对吗？

They are against that, but they’re not anti-cultural leftism.

他们反对这一点，但他们并不是反文化左派。

And that’s the key distinction between MAGA and left populism.

这就是 MAGA 和左翼民粹主义之间的关键区别。

Left populism basically does agree.

左翼民粹主义基本上同意这一点。

They agree with basic conceits, like racism is one of the biggest problem facing America.

他们同意基本的观念，比如种族主义是美国面临的最大问题之一。

They’re like, “One of the ways that we would fix that is through class-oriented economic programs in order to address that.

他们说，“我们解决这个问题的方法之一是通过以阶级为导向的经济计划来解决这个问题。

But we believe in…

但我们相信……

I don’t know, reparations as a concept.

我不知道，赔偿只是一个概念。

It’s just more about how we arrive there.” Whereas in MAGA, we would say, “No, we actually don’t think that at all.

更重要的是我们如何到达那里。”而在 MAGA 中，我们会说：“不，我们实际上根本不这么认为。

We think we’ve evolved past that and we think that the best way to fix it is actually similar policy prescription, but the mindset matters a lot.” So the real distinction, MAGA and left populism really is on culture.

我们认为我们已经超越了这一点，我们认为解决这个问题的最佳方法实际上是类似的政策处方，但心态非常重要。”因此，MAGA 和左翼民粹主义的真正区别在于文化。

1:50:52 Trans, in particular, orientation about…

跨性别者，特别是关于……的方向

Actually, immigration may be the biggest one.

事实上，移民可能是最大的一个。

Because if you look at the history of Bernie Sanders, Bernie Sanders was a person who railed against open borders and against mass migration for years.

因为如果你看看伯尼·桑德斯的历史，就会发现伯尼·桑德斯多年来一直反对开放边界和大规模移民。

There are famous interviews of him on YouTube with Lou Dobbs, who’s one of the hardcore immigration guys, and they agree with each other.

YouTube 上有他与卢·多布斯 (Lou Dobbs) 的著名采访，卢·多布斯是铁杆移民人士之一，他们的观点一致。

And Lou is like, “Bernie’s one of the only guys out there.” Bernie, at the end of the day, he had to succumb to the cultural left, and it’s changing attitudes on mass immigration.

卢说，“伯尼是那里唯一的人之一。”伯尼，归根结底，他不得不屈服于文化左派，而这正在改变人们对大规模移民的态度。

There’s some famous clips from 2015 in a Vox interview that he gave where he started…

他在 2015 年接受 Vox 采访时提供了一些著名的剪辑……

I think he started talking about how open borders is a Koch brothers libertarian concept, right?

我认为他开始谈论开放边界是科赫兄弟的自由主义概念，对吧？

Because Bernie is basically of a European welfare state tradition.

因为伯尼基本上是欧洲福利国家的传统。

European welfare states are very simply understood.

欧洲福利国家的理解非常简单。

We have high taxes, high services, low rates of immigration.

我们有高税收、高服务、低移民率。

Because we have high taxes and high services, we have a limited pool of people who can experience and take those services.

因为我们有高税收和高服务，所以我们能够体验和接受这些服务的人是有限的。

1:51:51 He used to understand that.

他曾经明白这一点。

He changed a lot of his attitude.

他的态度改变了很多。

Bernie also…

伯尼还...

I will say, look, he’s a courageous man and a courageous politician.

我会说，看，他是一个勇敢的人，也是一个勇敢的政治家。

As late as 2017, he actually endorsed a pro-life candidate because he said that that pro-life candidate was pro-worker.

直到2017年，他实际上还支持了一位反堕胎候选人，因为他说那位反堕胎候选人是支持工人的。

And he’s like, “At the end of the day, I care about pro-worker policy.” He took a ton of shit for it, and I don’t think he’s done it since.

他说，“归根结底，我关心的是支持工人的政策。”他为此付出了很多努力，我认为从那以后他就再也没有这样做过。

So the sad part that’s really happened is that a lot of left populist agenda and other has become subsumed in the hysteria around cultural leftism, wokeism, whatever the hell you want to call it.

因此，真正发生的令人悲伤的部分是，许多左翼民粹主义议程和其他议程已被纳入围绕文化左派、觉醒主义（无论你想怎么称呼它）的歇斯底里中。

And ultimately, that cultural leftism was the thing that really united the two wings of that party.

最终，文化左派才是真正将该党的两翼团结起来的东西。

And that’s really why MAGA is very opposed to that.

这就是为什么 MAGA 非常反对这一点。

They’re really not the same, but the left populist can still be anti-establishment.

他们确实不一样，但左翼民粹主义者仍然可以反建制。

That’s the key.

这是关键。

It’s interesting to think of the left cultural elite subsuming, consuming Bernie Sanders, the left populist.

想想左翼文化精英包容、消费左翼民粹主义者伯尼·桑德斯是很有趣的。

1:52:40 So you think that’s what happened?

所以你认为这就是发生的事情吗？

That’s what I would say.

这就是我想说的。

What do you think happened in 2016 with Bernie?

你认为 2016 年伯尼身上发生了什么？

1:52:51 Is there a possible future where he would’ve won?

未来他有可能获胜吗？

You and Krystal wrote a book on populism in 2020.

你和 Krystal 在 2020 年写了一本关于民粹主义的书。

So from that perspective, just looking at 2016, if he rejected wokeism at that time…

所以从这个角度来看，只要看看2016年，如果他当时拒绝唤醒主义……

By the way, that would be pretty gangster during 2016.

顺便说一句，这在 2016 年将是相当匪夷所思的事情。

Would he have…

他会不会……

Because I think Hillary went towards the left more, right?

因为我觉得希拉里更偏左，对吗？

Am I remembering that correctly?

我记得正确吗？

It was a very weird time.

那是一段非常奇怪的时光。

1:53:18 So yes and no.

所以是和不是。

It wasn’t full-on BLM-mania like it was in 2020, but the signs were all there.

虽然不像 2020 年那样全面爆发 BLM 狂热，但迹象已经全部显现。

So the Great Awokening was in 2014.

所以大觉醒发生在2014年。

I know it’s a ridiculous term.

我知道这是一个荒谬的术语。

I’m-

我是——

I love it.

我喜欢它。

1:53:33 Please keep saying it because it has a ring to it.

请继续说下去，因为它有响动。

But just to give the origin, the Great Awakening is about the great religious revival in the United States.

但就起源而言，大觉醒是关于美国的伟大宗教复兴。

1:53:36 So because wokeism is a religion, that’s a common refrain, they were like, “The Great Awokening is a really good term,” so-

因为唤醒主义是一种宗教，这是一种常见的说法，他们就像，“大觉醒是一个非常好的术语，”所以-

Thank you for explaining the joke.

谢谢你解释这个笑话。

1:53:47 Yep.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

1:53:48 So the Great Awokening is basically when racial attitudes amongst college-educated whites basically flipped on its head.

因此，大觉醒基本上是指受过大学教育的白人的种族态度基本上发生了转变。

There are a variety of reasons why this happened.

发生这种情况的原因有多种。

I really believe that Ta-Nehisi Coates’s case for reparations in the Atlantic is one of those.

我确实相信塔-内西斯·科茨在大西洋提出的赔偿案就是其中之一。

It radicalized an entire generation of basically white college-educated women to think completely differently on race.

它使整整一代受过大学教育的白人女性变得激进，对种族问题有了完全不同的看法。

It was during Ferguson, and then it also happened immediately after the Trayvon Martin case.

那是在弗格森时期，然后也发生在特雷冯·马丁案之后。

Those two things really set the stage for the eventual BLM takeover of 2020.

这两件事确实为 BLM 在 2020 年的最终接管奠定了基础。

But fundamentally, what they did is they changed racial attitudes amongst college-educated elites to really think in a race-first construct.

但从根本上说，他们所做的是改变了受过大学教育的精英们的种族态度，真正以种族优先的结构来思考。

And worse is that they were rejected in 2016 at the ballot box by the election of Donald Trump.

更糟糕的是，他们在 2016 年唐纳德·特朗普当选的投票箱中被拒绝了。

And in response, they ramped it up because they believed that that was the framework to view the world, that people voted for Trump because he was racist and not for a variety of other reasons that they eventually did.

作为回应，他们加大了力度，因为他们相信这是看待世界的框架，人们投票支持特朗普是因为他是种族主义者，而不是他们最终这样做的各种其他原因。

1:54:45 And so the point around this on question of whether Bernie could have won in 2016, I don’t know.

因此，关于伯尼能否在 2016 年获胜的问题，我不知道。

Krystal seems to think so.

克里斯塔尔似乎也是这么认为的。

I’m skeptical.

我很怀疑。

I’m skeptical for a variety of reasons.

我出于多种原因对此表示怀疑。

I think the culture is honestly one of them.

我认为文化确实是其中之一。

One of Trump’s core issues in 2016 was immigration.

特朗普2016年的核心问题之一是移民。

And Bernie and him did not agree on immigration.

伯尼和他在移民问题上没有达成一致。

And if immigration, even if people did support Bernie Sanders and his vision for working class people, the debates and the understanding about what it would look like, like a healthcare system, which literally would pay for illegal immigrants, I think he would’ve gotten killed on that.

如果移民，即使人们确实支持伯尼·桑德斯和他对工人阶级的愿景，关于它的样子的辩论和理解，比如医疗保健系统，它实际上会为非法移民买单，我认为他也会因此而被杀。

But I could be wrong.

但我可能是错的。

I will never know what that looked like.

我永远不会知道那是什么样子。

Let me reference you from earlier in the conversation with FDR.

让我参考一下之前与罗斯福谈话时的情况。

1:55:26 It’s not the policy.

这不是政策。

I think if he went more anti-establishment and more populist as opposed to trying to court, trying to be friendly with the DNC-

我认为，如果他更加反建制、更加民粹主义，而不是试图讨好、试图与民主党全国委员会保持友好——

Yeah.

是的。

1:55:42 I mean, that’s a good counterfactual.

我的意思是，这是一个很好的反事实。

Nobody will really know.

没有人会真正知道。

Look, I have a lot of love for the Bernie 2016 campaign.

看，我非常喜欢伯尼 2016 年的竞选活动。

He has a great ad from 2016 called America.

他在 2016 年推出了一个很棒的广告，名为“America”。

You should watch it.

你应该注意它。

It’s a great ad.

这是一个很棒的广告。

That’s another very interesting thing.

这又是一件非常有趣的事情。

It’s unapologetically patriotic, and that is not something that you see in a lot of left-wing circles these days.

这是毫无歉意的爱国主义，而这在当今许多左翼圈子中是看不到的。

So he understood politics at a base level that a lot of people did not.

因此，他对政治有很多人所不了解的基础水平。

But Bernie himself, and then a lot of the Bernie movement was basically crushed by the elite Democratic Party for a variety of reasons.

但伯尼本人，以及后来的很多伯尼运动基本上都因为各种原因被民主党精英镇压了。

They hated them.

他们讨厌他们。

They attacked Joe Rogan for even having him on and for giving him a platform.

他们攻击乔·罗根甚至让他上场并给他一个平台。

That was ridiculous.

那太荒谬了。

1:56:23 Obviously, it backfired in their face, which is really funny.

显然，这在他们脸上起了反作用，这真的很有趣。

But there were a million examples like that when they attacked Bernie for endorsing a pro-life politician.

但当他们攻击伯尼支持反堕胎政客时，这样的例子有上百万个。

He never did it again.

他再也没有这样做过。

They attacked Bernie for having Bernie Bros.

他们攻击伯尼拥有伯尼兄弟。

People online, the bros who were [inaudible 01:56:40] Bernie, and it was his fault.

网上的人，[听不清 01:56:40] 伯尼的兄弟，这是他的错。

His supporters would say nasty things about Elizabeth Warren, and he would defend straight himself and be like, “Yes, I’m sorry.

他的支持者会说伊丽莎白·沃伦的坏话，而他会直接为自己辩护，说：“是的，我很抱歉。

Please, my bros,” he was like, “Stop that.”

拜托，我的兄弟们，”他说，“别这样了。”

I think that his biggest problem is he never went full Trump.

我认为他最大的问题是他从来没有完全成为特朗普。

1:56:51 He kept saying sorry.

他一直说对不起。

Yeah, I agree.

是的，我同意。

1:56:58 I totally agree.

我完全同意。

Actually, in 2020, I did a ton of analysis on this at the time.

其实在2020年的时候，我当时就对此做了很多分析。

He would always do stuff like, “Joe Biden, my friend,” and it’s like, “No, he’s not your friend.

他总是会说，“乔·拜登，我的朋友”，就像，“不，他不是你的朋友。

He stands for everything that you disagree with.

他代表你不同意的一切。

Everything.” He’d be like, “Yeah, he’s a nice guy, but he’s not my friend,” but he would always be like, “Joe and I are great friends, but we have a small disagreement on this.” But like you just said, in terms of going full Trump, they wanted to see Trump up there humiliating all of the GOP politicians that they didn’t trust anymore.

一切。”他会说，“是的，他是个好人，但他不是我的朋友，”但他总是会说，“乔和我是好朋友，但我们在这件事上有一点分歧。”但就像你刚才说的，就全面特朗普而言，他们希望看到特朗普羞辱所有他们不再信任的共和党政客。

That’s what people really wanted.

这才是人们真正想要的。

But the other side of this is that the Democratic base in 2020 was very different than 2016.

但另一方面，2020 年的民主党基础与 2016 年有很大不同。

Because by 2020, they full-on had TDS, and they were basically like, “We need to defeat Trump at all costs.

因为到 2020 年，他们全面拥有了 TDS，他们基本上会说，“我们需要不惜一切代价击败特朗普。

We don’t give a shit what your name is, Bernie, Biden, whatever.

我们才不管你叫什么名字，伯尼，拜登，随便什么。

Whichever of you is going to be at best defeat Trump, you get the knob.”

无论你们中的哪一个最多能击败特朗普，你们都掌握了控制权。”

1:57:52 2016 is different because they didn’t full-on have that love and necessity of winning.

2016年是不同的，因为他们没有充分的热爱和获胜的必要性。

By the way, this is a strategic advantage that the Democrats have.

顺便说一句，这是民主党拥有的战略优势。

Democrats just care about winning.

民主党只关心胜利。

The current base of the party, all they want to do is win.

目前的党派基础，他们想要的就是胜利。

Republican base?

共和党基础？

They don’t give a shit about winning.

他们根本不在乎胜利。

They just love Trump.

他们就是喜欢特朗普。

So it’s nice to win.

所以能赢真是太好了。

But one of those where they will express their id for what they really want.

但这是他们会表达自己真正想要的东西的地方之一。

Now, it’s worked out for them because it turns out, that’s a very palpable political force.

现在，这对他们来说已经成功了，因为事实证明，这是一股非常明显的政治力量。

But one of the reasons why you won’t see me up here doing James Carville 40 more years is there is a law of something called thermostatic public opinion, where the thermostat, it changes a lot whenever you actually…

但你不会再看到我在这表演詹姆斯·卡维尔 40 年的原因之一是，有一个叫做恒温舆论的定律，其中恒温器，每当你实际上……它就会改变很多。

So when you have a left-wing president in power, the country goes right.

因此，当左翼总统掌权时，国家就会走向右翼。

When you have a right-wing president in power, the country goes left.

当右翼总统掌权时，国家就会向左转。

1:58:41 Amazing.

惊人的。

Right?

正确的？

You can actually look at a graph of economic attitudes from the two months where Joe Biden became president after Donald Trump.

实际上，您可以查看乔·拜登在唐纳德·特朗普之后就任总统两个月内的经济态度图表。

So Republicans, Trump was president in the last year in office, the economy’s great.

所以共和党人，特朗普在任的最后一年担任总统，经济状况非常好。

Two months later, the economy is horrible.

两个月后，经济形势惨淡。

That is a perfect example of thermostatic opinion.

这是恒温观点的完美例子。

And I’m not counting these Democrats out.

我并没有把这些民主党人排除在外。

2004, George W.

2004 年，乔治·W.

Bush wins the popular vote.

布什赢得了民众的投票。

He has a historic mandate to continue in Iraq.

他肩负着继续留在伊拉克的历史使命。

By ’06, he’s toasted.

到了 06 年，他已经备受瞩目。

We have a massive midterm election.

我们有一场大规模的中期选举。

And by ’08, we’re writing books about 40 more years, and how there’s never going to be a Republican in the office ever again.

到了 08 年，我们又写了 40 多年的书，讲述办公室里再也不会有共和党人了。

So things can change a lot in a very short period of time.

所以事情可以在很短的时间内发生很大的变化。

I think also for me, personally, maybe I’m deluded, the great man view of history, I think some of it is in programming circles, the term skills issue.

我认为对我个人来说，也许我被欺骗了，伟人的历史观，我认为其中一些是在编程圈子里，术语技能问题。

1:59:19 I think some of it just has to do how good you are, how charismatic you are, how good you are as a politician.

我认为其中一些只是与你有多优秀、你有多大魅力、你作为一名政治家有多优秀有关。

I maybe disagree with this.

我可能不同意这一点。

I’d love to see what you think.

我很想看看你的想法。

If you were allowed to run for many terms, I think Obama would just keep winning.

如果允许你竞选多届，我认为奥巴马会继续获胜。

He would win 2016, he would win 2020, he would win this year, 2024.

他会赢得2016年，他会赢得2020年，他会赢得今年，2024年。

It’s possible.

这是可能的。

1:59:49 But I would flip it on you, and I would say Obama would never be elected if there were no term limits, because Bill Clinton would’ve still been president.

但我会反过来说，如果没有任期限制，奥巴马永远不会当选，因为比尔·克林顿仍然会担任总统。

Right.

正确的。

Yeah.

是的。

1:59:56 So-

所以——

Well, those two, right?

嗯，那两个，对吧？

That’s two examples of…

这是……的两个例子

Exactly.

正是如此。

Extremely skilled politicians and somehow can appear like populists.

极其熟练的政治家在某种程度上可能看起来像民粹主义者。

Man, Bill Clinton was a force in his time, and it’s honestly sad what’s happened to him.

天哪，比尔·克林顿是他那个时代的一股力量，说实话，发生在他身上的事情令人难过。

2:00:07 I was actually just talking with a friend the other day.

事实上，前几天我刚刚和一个朋友聊天。

I’m like, “I don’t think that presidents should become president when they’re young because they live to see themselves become irrelevant,” and that must be really painful because I know what it takes to get there.

我想，“我不认为总统应该在年轻时成为总统，因为他们活着就看到自己变得无关紧要”，这一定非常痛苦，因为我知道要达到这一目标需要付出什么代价。

Imagine being Clinton, I mean, your entire legacy was destroyed with Hillary Clinton in 2016.

想象一下，如果你是克林顿，我的意思是，你的全部遗产都在 2016 年被希拉里·克林顿摧毁了。

And then imagine being Obama, who, in 2016, you could argue it’s a one-off and say that Trump is just…

然后想象一下，如果是奥巴马，在 2016 年，你可能会说这是一次性的，并说特朗普只是……

Oh, Hillary was a bad candidate, but Michelle and Barack Obama went so hard for Kamala Harris, and they just got blown out in the popular vote.

哦，希拉里是个糟糕的候选人，但米歇尔和巴拉克·奥巴马为卡马拉·哈里斯竭尽全力，结果他们在普选中惨败。

I mean, the Obama era officially ended with Donald Trump’s reelection to the presidency in 2024, and that was a 20-year period where Obama was one of the most popular central figures in American politics.

我的意思是，随着唐纳德·特朗普在2024年连任总统，奥巴马时代正式结束，而在这20年里，奥巴马是美国政坛最受欢迎的核心人物之一。

But I want to return to what you’re saying because it is important, and by the way, I do not support term limits on American presidents.

但我想回到你所说的，因为这很重要，顺便说一句，我不支持对美国总统的任期限制。

Are you a fascist or-

你是法西斯分子还是——

Well, that would imply that I don’t believe in democracy.

好吧，这意味着我不相信民主。

2:01:05 I actually do believe in democracy because I think the people, if they love their president, should be able to reelect him.

我实际上确实相信民主，因为我认为人民如果爱他们的总统，就应该能够连任他。

I think FDR was amazing.

我认为罗斯福太棒了。

I think that the term limit change was basically what happened is that Republicans and a lot of elite Democrats always wanted to speak against FDR, but he was a god, so they couldn’t.

我认为任期限制的变化基本上是共和党人和许多民主党精英一直想反对罗斯福，但他是神，所以他们不能。

So they waited until he died.

于是他们就等到他死了。

And then after he died, they were like, “Yeah, this whole third, fourth term, that can never happen again.” And America didn’t really think that hard about it.

他去世后，他们说：“是的，整个第三、第四个任期，这种情况永远不会再发生了。”美国并没有真正认真考虑这一点。

They were like, “Yeah, okay, whatever.” But, I mean, it had immense consequences for American history.

他们就像，“是的，好吧，无论如何。”但是，我的意思是，它对美国历史产生了巨大的影响。

Clinton is the perfect example.

克林顿就是一个完美的例子。

I mean, Bill Clinton left office, even despite the Lewinsky bullshit, he had a 60% approval rating.

我的意思是，比尔·克林顿卸任后，尽管莱温斯基胡言乱语，但他的支持率仍高达 60%。

Okay?

好的？

No way George W.

不可能是乔治·W.

Bush gets elected.

布什当选。

Impossible.

不可能的。

Clinton would’ve blown his ass out.

克林顿会打爆他的屁股。

2:01:58 And imagine the consequences of that.

想象一下这样做的后果。

We would have no Iraq…

我们就不会有伊拉克……

I mean, I’m not saying he was a great man.

我的意思是，我并不是说他是一个伟人。

We probably still would’ve had the financial crisis, and there’s still a lot of bad stuff that would’ve happened.

我们可能仍然会遇到金融危机，并且仍然会发生很多不好的事情。

But he was a popular dude, and I wouldn’t say he had the best judgment at times presidentially…

但他是一个受欢迎的家伙，我不会说他有时作为总统有最好的判断力……

Definitely not personally, but presidentially.

绝对不是个人的，而是总统的。

But I’m pretty confident we would’ve not gone into the Iraq war.

但我非常有信心我们不会卷入伊拉克战争。

And so that’s where it really cost us.

这就是我们真正付出代价的地方。

If you’re left wing and you’re talking about Obama, yeah, I think Obama probably would’ve won in 2016.

如果你是左翼人士并且谈论的是奥巴马，是的，我认为奥巴马可能会在 2016 年获胜。

Although it’s a counterfactual, because Obama was never challenged in the same way that MAGA was able to, to the liberal consensus.

尽管这是反事实的，因为奥巴马从未像 MAGA 那样受到自由派共识的挑战。

Romney really ran this awful campaign, honestly, about cutting spending.

老实说，罗姆尼确实开展了这场关于削减开支的糟糕竞选活动。

It was very traditional Republican.

这是非常传统的共和党。

It was deeply unpopular.

它非常不受欢迎。

The autopsy of that election was we actually need to be more pro-immigration.

那次选举的尸检是我们实际上需要更加支持移民。

That literally was the autopsy.

这实际上就是尸检。

But Trump understood the assignment.

但特朗普理解这项任务。

2:02:56 There are two people who I so deeply respect for their political bets.

我非常尊重两个人的政治赌注。

Peter Thiel and Donald Trump.

彼得·蒂尔和唐纳德·特朗普。

So one of the books that I recommended called The Unwinding by George Packer, he actually talks about Peter Thiel there.

我推荐的一本书叫乔治·帕克的《放松》，他实际上在那里谈论了彼得·蒂尔。

This is in 2013.

这是2013年的事。

And Thiel talks about, he was like, “Whoever runs for office next, they don’t need to run on an optimistic message.

泰尔谈到，他说，“无论谁接下来竞选公职，他们都不需要传达乐观的信息。

They need to run on a message that everything is fucked up and that we need to…

他们需要传达这样的信息：一切都搞砸了，我们需要……

And if you think about, that’s why Thiel’s endorsement of Trump with the American carnage message is…

如果你想一想，这就是为什么蒂尔用美国大屠杀的信息来支持特朗普的原因是……

I mean, it was shocking at the time, but he had that fundamental insight that that’s what the American people wanted.

我的意思是，这在当时是令人震惊的，但他有一个基本的洞察力：那就是美国人民想要的。

Trump too comes out of an election in 2012 where the literal GOP autopsy, the report produced by the party, says, “We need to be pro-mass immigration.” What happens?

特朗普也曾在 2012 年的选举中脱颖而出，该党制作的报告，字面上的共和党尸检报告称，“我们需要支持大规模移民。”会发生什么？

Immediately after 2012, they start to go for mass immigrant…

2012年之后，他们开始大规模移民……

Basically, they go for these amnesty plans, the so-called Gang of Eight plan, Marco Rubio, and all of this in 2013, it falls apart, but Republicans get punished by their base in [inaudible 02:04:04]-

基本上，他们追求这些特赦计划，所谓的八人帮计划，马可·鲁比奥，所有这一切在 2013 年都失败了，但共和党人受到了他们的基础的惩罚[听不清 02:04:04]-

2:04:00 Republicans get punished by their base in 2014.

2014年，共和党人受到了他们的支持者的惩罚。

So Eric Cantor, who was the House Majority Leader, the number two Republican, spent more on stake in his campaign than his primary opponent who successfully defeated him, a guy named Dave Brat.

因此，众议院多数党领袖、共和党第二号人物埃里克·坎托(Eric Cantor)在竞选中投入的资金比成功击败他的主要对手戴夫·布拉特(Dave Brat)还要多。

Dave Brat kicked his ass on the issue of immigration and said that Eric Cantor is pro-amnesty.

戴夫·布拉特 (Dave Brat) 在移民问题上大发雷霆，并表示埃里克·坎托 (Eric Cantor) 支持特赦。

All of the forces were there.

所有的势力都在那里。

2:04:21 Then in 2015, Trump comes down the escalator, and he gives the message on immigration that the GOP base has been roaring and wanting to hear now but that nobody wanted to listen to them.

然后在 2015 年，特朗普走下自动扶梯，他在移民问题上传达了共和党基地一直在咆哮并且现在想听到的信息，但没有人愿意听他们的。

That was his fundamental insight.

这是他的基本见解。

That bet was a colossal and a Titanic political bet at a time when all political ideology and thought process would’ve said that you should come out on the other side, which is where Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and all these other guys were effectively there in varying different ways, like they were hawkish or whatever.

这个赌注是一个巨大的、泰坦尼克号的政治赌注，当时所有的政治意识形态和思维过程都会说你应该站在另一边，而马可·卢比奥和特德·克鲁兹以及所有其他人实际上以不同的方式在那里，就像他们是鹰派或其他什么。

But Trump just had such a monopoly on that as an idea.

但特朗普只是把这个想法垄断了。

2:04:56 That’s why he wins the 2016 primary.

这就是他赢得 2016 年初选的原因。

Then paired with immigration, a hard line position on immigration, is this American carnage idea that actually everything is wrong.

然后，与移民问题、对移民问题采取强硬立场相结合的是美国的大屠杀观念，即实际上一切都是错误的。

The American dream has gone.

美国梦已经破灭。

“We will stop this American carnage.” I think American Carnage is one of the most important inaugural speeches ever given in American history.

“我们将阻止这场美国大屠杀。”我认为《美国大屠杀》是美国历史上最重要的就职演说之一。

Put it up against every single other speech, there’s nothing else like it.

将它与其他所有演讲进行比较，没有什么比它更好的了。

But that was what the country wanted at the time.

但这正是当时国家所希望的。

2:05:26 That’s what great politicians are able to do, is they’re able to suss something out.

这就是伟大的政治家能够做的，他们能够解决问题。

That’s also why Peter Thiel is who he is because he saw that in 2000.

这也是 Peter Thiel 成为现在这样的人的原因，因为他在 2000 年就看到了这一点。

Imagine what it takes to come out of the 2012 election and to be honestly totally contrarian to the entire national mood and this entire theory of Obama-esque star politics and say, “No, you need somebody who runs on the opposite of that to win.”

想象一下，在 2012 年的大选中，要怎样才能诚实地完全反对整个国家的情绪和奥巴马式明星政治的整个理论，并说：“不，你需要一个与此相反的人才能获胜。”

Well, we’ll never know.

好吧，我们永远不会知道。

2:05:49 I love this kind of Mike Tyson versus Muhammad Ali.

我喜欢迈克·泰森与穆罕默德·阿里的对决。

I still think I would’ve loved to see Obama versus Trump.

我仍然认为我很想看到奥巴马与特朗普的较量。

Me too.

我也是。

2:05:56 I agree.

我同意。

First of all, Obama versus Trump in 2008, Obama wins hands down.

首先，2008年奥巴马对阵特朗普，奥巴马轻松获胜。

Well, yes, definitely.

嗯，是的，绝对是。

I love how this is a boxing talk.

我喜欢这是一场拳击演讲。

Yeah.

是的。

Now, 2016, Obama has Iraq and Afghanistan.

现在，2016 年，奥巴马掌控了伊拉克和阿富汗。

He’s vulnerable though.

但他很脆弱。

2:06:14 I’ll tell you why: DACA.

我来告诉你原因：DACA。

That’s what nobody ever talks about in the Obama-Trump thing.

在奥巴马和特朗普的事情上，从来没有人谈论过这一点。

Don’t forget, Obama takes his 2012 victory, basically says, “Oh, the GOP even now agrees with me on immigration,” and then he does DACA and he legalizes X million number of illegal immigrants who are here who were brought here as children.

别忘了，奥巴马在 2012 年取得胜利时，基本上是说，“哦，共和党现在在移民问题上也同意我的观点”，然后他实施了 DACA，让数百万小时候被带到这里的非法移民合法化。

That also fundamentally changed the immigration consensus on the Republican side because they’re like, “Wait, holy shit.

这也从根本上改变了共和党方面的移民共识，因为他们会说，“等等，天哪。

You can just do that?

你就可以这么做吗？

Because we don’t agree with that at all.” That really ignited the base as well.

因为我们根本不同意这一点。”这也确实点燃了基地。

So I’m not sure.

所以我不确定。

2:06:47 A moment I think about a lot with Trump and just being able to unleash the rage of the Republican base is in the 2012 debate, Candy Crowley was the moderator with Mitt Romney, and she fact-checked him famously.

我对特朗普思考了很多，并且能够释放共和党基础的愤怒是在 2012 年的辩论中，坎迪·克劳利 (Candy Crowley) 是米特·罗姆尼 (Mitt Romney) 的主持人，她对他进行了著名的事实核查。

This was when fact checking was shocking in a presidential debate.

当时，总统辩论中的事实核查令人震惊。

She said something about Benghazi, and she was like, “No, he did say that.” She corrected Romney on behalf of Obama.

她说了一些关于班加西的事情，她说：“不，他确实这么说过。”她代表奥巴马纠正了罗姆尼的错误。

To this day, it’s questionable whether she was even right.

直到今天，她的观点是否正确仍值得怀疑。

Romney was just like, “Oh, he did?

罗姆尼就像是，“哦，他做到了？

Okay.” Trump would’ve been like, “Excuse me.

好的。”特朗普会说：“对不起。

Excuse me.

打扰一下。

Look at this woman.” He would’ve gone off.

看看这个女人。”他本来会走开的。

2:07:22 I think about that moment because that’s what the Republican base wanted to hear.

我想起那一刻，因为这就是共和党基础想听到的。

But also, it turns out, America had a lot of festering feelings about the mainstream media that it needed unleashed, and Trump was just this incredible vector to just blow up this system, which, if you asked me about optimism, that’s the thing I’m most optimistic about.

但事实证明，美国对主流媒体有很多需要释放的溃烂情绪，而特朗普正是炸毁这个体系的令人难以置信的媒介，如果你问我乐观程度如何，那就是我最乐观的事情。

But don’t you think Obama had a good sense in how to turn it on, how to be anti-establishment correctly?

但你不认为奥巴马在如何开启它、如何正确地反建制方面有很好的判断力吗？

I will not deny that he’s one of the most talented politicians literally to ever play the game.

我不会否认他是有史以来最有才华的政治家之一。

2:07:47 He is a just unbelievable rhetorical talent.

他是一个令人难以置信的修辞天赋。

Look, as a counterfactual, would he have been more talented than Hillary?

看看，作为反事实，他会比希拉里更有才华吗？

Yeah, no question in terms of anybody would’ve been for that one.

是的，对于任何人来说，毫无疑问会是这样的。

But at the same time, all the signs were there.

但与此同时，所有的迹象都出现了。

All the signs for the Trump victory and for the backlash against Obama-ism kind of as a political project, it all existed.

特朗普获胜的所有迹象以及对奥巴马主义作为一项政治计划的强烈抵制，都存在。

Like I just laid the tea leaves out there, from 2012 to 2015, in retrospect, it’s the most predictable thing in the world that Donald Trump would get elected, but it was crazy in the moment.

就像我刚刚抛下的茶叶一样，从 2012 年到 2015 年，回想起来，唐纳德·特朗普当选是世界上最可预测的事情，但那一刻却很疯狂。

I got to live through that, which was really fun, like professionally.

我必须经历这一切，这真的很有趣，就像职业一样。

I think it’s unfortunate that he kind of let Kamala Harris borrow his reputation.

我认为不幸的是他让卡马拉·哈里斯借用了他的名声。

It’s like, “You know better, dude.

就像是，“你知道得更清楚，伙计。

2:08:34 You know.

你知道。

You defeated these people, the Clinton machine.

你打败了这些人，克林顿机器。

You destroyed them.” And it was awesome in ’08.

你毁了他们。” 08年的时候真是太棒了。

What is that?

那是什么？

2:08:44 He’s so much bigger and better than the machine.

他比机器更大、更好。

I don’t get it.

我不明白。

It’s interesting, right?

很有趣，对吧？

Yeah.

是的。

2:08:52 It’s so weird though.

但这太奇怪了。

I just think-

我只是想——

I think this was a wake-up call.

我认为这是一个警钟。

2:08:54 2024 was a wake-up call.

2024 年是一个警钟。

The DNC machine doesn’t work.

DNC 机器不工作。

Absolutely.

绝对的。

There needs to be new blood, new Obama-like candidates.

需要有新鲜血液、新的奥巴马式的候选人。

Well, I’m glad you brought that up because that’s important, too, in terms of the process and the way that things currently stand.

嗯，我很高兴你提出这个问题，因为就流程和目前的情况而言，这也很重要。

2:09:03 The DNC actually rigged its entire primary system under Biden not to the benefit of Obama.

民主党全国委员会实际上操纵了拜登领导下的整个初选系统，而不是为了奥巴马的利益。

For example, you know how they moved away from the Iowa caucuses and they actually moved some other primaries and moved the calendar to reward traditional states that vote much more in line with the democratic establishment.

例如，你知道他们是如何放弃爱荷华州预选的，他们实际上改变了其他一些初选，并改变了日历，以奖励那些投票更符合民主制度的传统州。

The story of Barack Obama is one that not many…

巴拉克·奥巴马 (Barack Obama) 的故事并不多……

actually, probably a lot of young people today don’t even remember how it happened.

事实上，今天可能很多年轻人甚至不记得这件事是如何发生的。

2:09:34 In 2008, Obama was the underdog.

2008年，奥巴马处于劣势。

Actually, here’s the critical thing.

其实，关键就在这里。

Obama was losing with Black people.

奥巴马在黑人方面输了。

Why?

为什么？

Black Democrats simply did not believe that white people were vote for a Black guy.

黑人民主党人根本不相信白人会投票给黑人。

So Barack Obama goes to this white state, Iowa, all in on the Iowa caucuses, and shocks the world by winning the Iowa caucuses.

因此，巴拉克·奥巴马来到了爱荷华州这个白人州，全力参加爱荷华州预选会议，并赢得了爱荷华州预选会议，震惊了世界。

Overnight, there is a shift in public amongst the Black population in South Carolina that says, “Oh, shit, he actually could win,” and he comes out, and he wins South Carolina.

一夜之间，南卡罗来纳州黑人公众的态度发生了转变，他们说：“哦，操，他实际上可以获胜。”然后他站出来，赢得了南卡罗来纳州。

That’s basically was the death knell for the Hillary Clinton campaign.

这基本上是希拉里·克林顿竞选的丧钟。

The problem is by moving South Carolina up and by making it first along with other more pro-establishment friendly places, what do we do?

问题是，通过提升南卡罗来纳州的地位，使其与其他更亲建制的友好地方一起成为第一，我们该怎么办？

We make it so that Barack Obama can never happen again.

我们做到这一点是为了让巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）永远不会再次发生。

We make it so that an older base of Democratic Party voters who listens to the elites can never have their assumptions challenged.

我们这样做是为了让听取精英意见的民主党老选民的假设永远不会受到挑战。

That’s one of the worst things Joe Biden did.

这是乔·拜登做过的最糟糕的事情之一。

I talked about his arrogance.

我谈到了他的傲慢。

He was so arrogant, he changed the freaking primary system.

他太嚣张了，居然把这个该死的初级系统都改了。

He was so arrogant, he refused to do a debate.

他非常傲慢，拒绝进行辩论。

I mean, imagine history.

我的意思是，想象一下历史。

How lucky are we honestly that Joe Biden agreed to do that debate with Donald Trump early?

老实说，乔·拜登同意尽早与唐纳德·特朗普进行这场辩论，我们有多幸运？

Again, that was his arrogance.

这又是他的傲慢。

I think we’re so lucky for it because if we hadn’t gotten…

我认为我们很幸运，因为如果我们没有得到......

We got to understand as a country how cooked he was and how fake everything was behind the scenes in front of all of our eyes.

作为一个国家，我们开始了解他是多么的愚蠢，以及在我们所有人眼前幕后的一切是多么的虚假。

They tried for three straight years to make sure that that would never happen.

他们连续三年试图确保这种情况永远不会发生。

It’s still such a crime, honestly, against the American people.

老实说，这仍然是针对美国人民的犯罪行为。

I’ve been thinking about who I want to talk to for three hours.

我花了三个小时思考我想和谁说话。

2:11:08 That’s why I bring up Obama because he’s probably the number one person on the left I would like to hear analyze what happened in this election and what’s happened to the United States of America over the past 20 plus years.

这就是为什么我提到奥巴马，因为他可能是我最想听到的第一个左翼人士来分析这次选举中发生的事情以及美利坚合众国在过去 20 多年里发生的事情。

I can’t imagine anybody else.

我无法想象其他人。

Look, if anybody could do it, it’d be you.

听着，如果有人能做到的话，那就是你了。

2:11:31 But there are layers upon layers with that man.

但那个男人却有一层又一层。

I would love to actually sit and talk with him, for real.

我很想坐下来和他真正地交谈。

I think it’s fair to say that we talked about the great man view of history.

我认为可以公平地说，我们谈论了伟人历史观。

2:11:37 I think you have a psychopath view of history where all great leaders are for sure psychopaths.

我认为你对历史有一种精神病态的看法，所有伟大的领导人肯定都是精神病态者。

Not for sure.

不确定。

2:11:50 There are many who are good people.

有很多好人。

Harry Truman was-

哈里·杜鲁门是——

You’re like, some of them [inaudible 02:11:52].

你就像，其中一些人 [听不清 02:11:52]。

Yeah, some-

是的，一些——

Yeah, Harry Truman, Harry Truman.

是的，哈里·杜鲁门，哈里·杜鲁门。

Some, I assume, are good people.

我认为有些人是好人。

2:11:54 To be fair though, most of the good ones are accidents, like Harry Truman.

但公平地说，大多数好事都是偶然的，就像哈里·杜鲁门一样。

He never would’ve gotten himself elected.

他永远不会当选。

He was a great dude.

他是一个很棒的人。

How do you know he was a great dude?

你怎么知道他是一个伟大的家伙？

David McCullough book, I highly recommended it.

大卫·麦卡洛的书，我强烈推荐。

2:12:07 Everybody should read it.

每个人都应该阅读它。

Truman loved his wife.

杜鲁门爱他的妻子。

I think that’s really awesome.

我认为这真的很棒。

I love when politicians love their wife.

我喜欢政客们爱他们的妻子。

It’s so rare.

这是非常罕见的。

He adored his wife, he adored his daughter, spent time with them.

他爱他的妻子，他爱他的女儿，与他们共度时光。

He made family life a priority.

他把家庭生活放在首位。

He had really good small-town judgment that he would apply to foreign affairs.

他具有非常好的小镇判断力，可以将其运用到外交事务中。

He was just a very well-considered, very stand-up man.

他只是一个深思熟虑、非常正直的人。

I so appreciate that about him.

我非常欣赏他这一点。

2:12:34 Another one is John Adams.

另一位是约翰·亚当斯。

I love and revere John Adams.

我热爱并尊敬约翰·亚当斯。

He’s my favorite Founding Father.

他是我最喜欢的开国元勋。

Him and John Quincy, they don’t get nearly enough of their due.

他和约翰·昆西，他们没有得到足够的应得的。

They were some of the most intelligent, well-considered.

他们是最聪明、最深思熟虑的人之一。

They were family men.

他们是顾家的男人。

The love and the relationship between John and Abigail Adams is literally legendary.

约翰和阿比盖尔·亚当斯之间的爱情和关系堪称传奇。

I think it’s amazing, especially in the context of the 1700s, the way that he would take her counsel into conversations and her own ability.

我认为这太神奇了，尤其是在 1700 年代的背景下，他将她的建议纳入对话的方式和她自己的能力。

She would sit there and go toe-to-toe as much with Thomas Jefferson.

她会坐在那里，与托马斯·杰斐逊针锋相对。

There are some who are great, who are really, really good presidents, who have good judgment and who are really good people and really think deeply about the world and have really cool personal lives.

有些人很伟大，他们是非常非常好的总统，他们有良好的判断力，他们是真正的好人，他们真正深入思考世界，并且拥有非常酷的个人生活。

But also the vast majority of them…

但他们中的绝大多数……

I would say especially in the modern era and where the price of the presidency extracts everything that you have, you have to be willing to give everything.

我想说，尤其是在当今时代，总统职位的代价会榨取你所拥有的一切，你必须愿意付出一切。

That’s not a price that most people want to pay.

这不是大多数人愿意付出的代价。

Is it possible that some of the people who you think are sociopaths in politics are in fact really good people, and some of the people you think are good, like Truman and Adams, are actually sociopaths?

有没有可能，一些你认为政治上反社会的人实际上是真正的好人，而一些你认为好的人，比如杜鲁门和亚当斯，实际上是反社会的？

Definitely.

绝对是。

2:13:46 I could just be reading the wrong books, right?

我可能读错书了，对吧？

Yeah, that’s right.

是的，没错。

2:13:49 It sounds like you just read some really compelling biographies.

听起来你刚刚读了一些非常引人注目的传记。

Well, to be fair, I don’t base this on one book.

好吧，公平地说，我并不是以一本书为基础的。

2:13:54 I read a lot of them, and I’ll get…

我读了很多，我会得到……

For example, I’ve read books about LBJ, you wouldn’t know any of his foibles.

例如，我读过有关林登·约翰逊的书，你不会知道他的任何缺点。

But then you find out that they’re written by his friend or it was written by…

但后来你发现它们是他的朋友写的或者是……写的。

I think you read [inaudible 02:14:08].

我想你读过 [听不清 02:14:08]。

I think you read the truth.

我想你读的是事实。

2:14:08 I really worry about this general, especially now, the anti-establishment sense that every politician must be a sociopath.

我真的很担心这位将军，尤其是现在，反建制意识认为每个政客都必须是反社会者。

The reason I worry about that is it feels true.

我担心这一点的原因是感觉是真的。

Yeah.

是的。

So you can fall into this bubble of beliefs where every politician is a sociopath, and because of that-

所以你可能会陷入这个信仰泡沫，每个政客都是反社会者，正因为如此——

It can be a self-reinforcing [inaudible 02:14:38].

它可以是自我强化的[听不清 02:14:38]。

…

……

2:14:38 it can be a self-reinforcing mechanism.

它可以是一种自我强化的机制。

Yeah, I understand what you’re saying.

是的，我明白你在说什么。

I agree, by the way.

顺便说一下，我同意。

We do need to dramatically change it.

我们确实需要彻底改变它。

But the problem is that people vote with their eyeballs and with their interests, and people love to dissect people’s personal lives.

但问题是，人们用眼球、用利益来投票，人们喜欢剖析别人的私生活。

One of the reasons why you were probably more likely in the pre-modern era to get, quote/unquote, good people is they were not subject to the level of scrutiny and to the insanity of the process that you are currently.

在前现代时代，你可能更有可能找到（引用/不引用）优秀的人，原因之一是他们不受你目前所处的严格审查和疯狂流程的影响。

Like I just said about…

就像我刚才说的……

Theoretically, you could run for president and you would just get your nomination at the convention.

理论上，你可以竞选总统，然后在大会上获得提名。

It’s only two months to Election Day.

距离选举日只有两个月了。

That’s not so bad.

那还不错。

But you run for president today, you got your ass on the road for two years and then two years before that.

但你今天竞选总统，你已经在路上奋斗了两年，然后再前两年。

Then you have to run the damn government.

然后你必须管理该死的政府。

So the price is so extraordinarily high.

所以价格就非常的高了。

2:15:23 I also think that, oh, God, just Washington as a system, it will burn you.

我还认为，哦，上帝，仅仅华盛顿作为一个体系，它就会烧死你。

It will extract absolutely everything that you can give it.

它绝对会提取你能给它的一切。

At the end of the day, everyone always talks about this, it’s hilarious, how Trump is the only president not to age in office.

归根结底，每个人总是谈论这一点，这很搞笑，特朗普是唯一一位在任期间没有变老的总统。

I actually think it’s crazy when you look at the photos of how he actually looks better today than he did whenever he went into the office.

事实上，当你看到他今天的照片比他刚进办公室时看起来更好时，我真的觉得这很疯狂。

That’s amazing, and it actually says a lot about how his mind works.

这太神奇了，这实际上充分说明了他的思维方式。

I think Trump is pure id.

我认为特朗普是纯粹的本我。

Having observed him a little bit, both at the White House and having interviewed him, it’s calculating, but it’s also pure id, which is very interesting.

在白宫和采访他时对他进行了一些观察，这很算计，但也是纯粹的本我，这非常有趣。

The ones who are the thinkers, guys like Obama and others who are really in their heads, it’s a nightmare.

对于像奥巴马这样的思想家和其他真正在头脑中思考的人来说，这是一场噩梦。

It’s a nightmare.

这是一场噩梦。

Apparently, Obama would only sleep four hours a night.

显然，奥巴马每晚只睡四个小时。

Yeah, add some empathy on top of that, it’s just going to destroy you.

是的，再加上一些同理心，它只会毁掉你。

It will kill you, man.

它会杀了你，伙计。

All right, speaking about the dirty game of politics, several people, different people told me that of everyone they have ever met in politics, Nancy Pelosi is the best at attaining and wielding political power.

好吧，谈到肮脏的政治游戏，有几个人，不同的人告诉我，在他们见过的政治界人士中，南希·佩洛西是最擅长获得和运用政治权力的人。

2:16:19 Is there any truth to that?

这有道理吗？

In the modern era, yeah, I think that’s fair in the last 25 years, definitely.

在现代，是的，我认为这在过去 25 年里绝对是公平的。

2:16:34 Let’s think about it.

我们想一想。

Number one is longevity.

第一是长寿。

She’s had the ability to control the caucus for a long period of time, so that’s impressive.

她有能力长期控制党团会议，这令人印象深刻。

Because as I just laid out with Clinton, Obama, these figures come and they go, but over a 25-almost-year period, you’ve been at the very top and the center of American politics.

因为正如我刚刚与克林顿、奥巴马所说，这些数字来来去去，但在近 25 年的时间里，你们一直处于美国政治的最高层和中心。

2:16:55 The other case would be is that in this modern era has been defined by access to money.

另一种情况是，在这个现代时代，金钱的定义已经被定义了。

She’s one of the greatest fundraisers in Democratic Party history.

她是民主党历史上最伟大的筹款人之一。

Again, consistently, Obama, Kamala, all those people come and go.

奥巴马、卡马拉，所有这些人来来去去，始终如一。

But she’s always had a very central understanding of the ability to fundraise, to cultivate good relationships with Democratic Party elites all across the country, use that money and dole it out to her caucus.

但她始终对筹款、与全国民主党精英建立良好关系、使用这些资金并将其分发给她的核心小组的能力有着非常核心的理解。

2:17:19 She also was really good at making sure that legislation that came to the floor actually had the votes to do so.

她还非常擅长确保提交的立法实际上获得了投票支持。

She ran an extremely well-ordered process in the House of Representatives, one in which you were able to reconcile problems within her office.

她在众议院执行了一套极其井然有序的程序，你可以在其中协调她办公室内的问题。

It didn’t usually go public.

它通常不会公开。

Then it would make it to the floor, and it would pass so that there would be no general media frenzy and Democrats in disarray or any of that.

然后它会被提交到会场，并且会通过，这样就不会有媒体的普遍狂热和民主党的混乱或任何其他情况。

Put that on display with the Republicans, and we’ve had multiple Speakers all resign or get fired in a 16-year period.

让共和党看到这一点，我们已经有多名议长在 16 年内全部辞职或被解雇。

That’s pretty remarkable.

这非常了不起。

Basically, ever since John Boehner decided to leave in, what was it, 2012?

基本上，自从约翰·博纳 (John Boehner) 决定离开后，2012 年是什么时候？

I forget the exact year.

我忘记了具体年份。

My point is that if you compare her record to the longevity on the Republican side, it is astounding.

我的观点是，如果你将她的记录与共和党的长寿进行比较，你会发现这是令人震惊的。

2:18:03 The other interesting thing is that she also has pulled off one of the real tests of political power is, can you rule even when you don’t have the title anymore?

另一件有趣的事情是，她还完成了对政治权力的真正考验之一，即即使你不再拥有头衔，你还能统治吗？

She gave up the leader position to Hakeem Jeffries, but everybody knows she pulled Joe Biden out of the race.

她将领先地位让给了哈基姆·杰弗里斯，但每个人都知道她把乔·拜登拉出了竞选。

That’s pretty interesting.

这很有趣。

She’s technically just a back-bencher, a nobody member of Congress, but we all know that’s bullshit.

从技术上讲，她只是一名后座议员，一个无名的国会议员，但我们都知道那是废话。

So that’s actually a very important case of political power is, can you rule without the title?

所以这实际上是政治权力的一个非常重要的例子，没有头衔你能统治吗？

If you can, then you truly are powerful.

如果你能做到，那你就真的很强大了。

So I would make a good case for her, yeah.

所以我会为她辩护，是的。

She’s done a lot of remarkable stuff for her party.

她为她的派对做了很多了不起的事情。

2:18:39 I will say they played Trump like a fiddle, man.

我想说的是，他们像拉小提琴一样玩弄特朗普，伙计。

Last time around, they were able to.

上次，他们做到了。

They really got him.

他们真的抓住了他。

One of the craziest elements that I covered was Trump basically threatened to shut down the government and actually did shut down the government for a period of time over a dispute over border wall funding.

我报道过的最疯狂的内容之一是特朗普基本上威胁要关闭政府，并且实际上确实因边境墙资金纠纷而关闭了政府一段时间。

Pelosi and Schumer, despite genuine mass hysteria in the Democratic Party with even some people who were willing to try and to strike a deal, never wavered and actually basically won and forced Trump to back down.

尽管民主党内部存在真正的大规模歇斯底里，甚至一些人愿意尝试达成协议，但佩洛西和舒默从未动摇过，实际上基本上赢得了胜利，并迫使特朗普让步。

Not a lot of MAGA people want to admit it, but that was honestly really embarrassing for the Trump administration at that time.

没有多少人愿意承认这一点，但老实说，这对当时的特朗普政府来说真的很尴尬。

The amount of discipline that it took for her, and Chuck to a lesser extent, but for the two of them to pull that off, it was honestly impressive that they were able to do that, even when the president has so much political power.

她需要大量的纪律，查克的程度要轻一些，但对于他们两个来说，他们能够做到这一点，老实说，即使总统拥有如此大的政治权力，他们能够做到这一点确实令人印象深刻。

It literally shut down the government over it.

它实际上因此关闭了政府。

Speaking of fundraising, Kamala raised $1 billion-

说到筹款，卡马拉筹集了10亿美元——

Insane.

疯了。

…

……

2:19:40 but I guess the conclusion is she spent it poorly.

但我想结论是她花得很糟糕。

How would you spend it?

你会怎么花呢？

I don’t think money matters that much.

我觉得钱没那么重要。

2:19:47 I think Donald Trump has proven to us twice that you can win an underdog campaign through earned media.

我认为唐纳德·特朗普已经两次向我们证明，你可以通过赢得媒体赢得一场失败的竞选活动。

And I don’t think that paid advertisement moves the needle that much.

而且我不认为付费广告能起到多大作用。

Now, notice, I didn’t say it doesn’t matter.

现在，请注意，我并没有说没关系。

But am I buying $425,000-a-day spots on the Vegas Sphere?

但我是否会在维加斯球体上购买每天 425,000 美元的门票？

No.

不。

We’re not doing that.

我们不会那样做。

As people who do this for a living, how do you even spend $100,000 to build a set for one interview?

作为以此为生的人，你怎么可能花 10 万美元为一次采访搭建一套布景？

Is this the Call Her Daddy?

这是叫她爸爸吗？

The Call Her Daddy thing.

打电话给她爸爸的事。

Okay.

好的。

How’s that possible?

这怎么可能？

2:20:17 Think about the dollar-per-hour cost.

想想每小时美元的成本。

That’s like running a jet airplane in terms of what they did, [inaudible 02:20:24] Kamala Harris thing.

就他们所做的事情而言，这就像驾驶喷气式飞机一样，[听不清 02:20:24] 卡马拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 的事情。

You know what I want to note behind the scenes, and I’m not good with this, I get really frustrated and I shouldn’t, but dealing with PR and comms people can sometimes break my soul.

你知道我想在幕后注意什么，我对此并不擅长，我真的很沮丧，我不应该这样做，但与公关和通讯人员打交道有时会伤透我的灵魂。

It’s maddening.

真让人抓狂。

2:20:35 “Can we not talk about this?

“我们能不谈这个吗？

We need to pull them at 2:12 p.m.” You’re like, “But that’s only 30 minutes.” It’s like, yeah.

我们需要在下午 2 点 12 分把它们拉出来。”你会说，“但这只有 30 分钟。”就像是的。

That, but there’s stuff like where to put the camera.

那，但是还有像在哪里放置相机之类的东西。

2:20:43 It’s not that I don’t-

这并不是说我不-

Oh, yeah.

哦，是的。

Hypothetically, I don’t even disagree with any of the suggestions, but it’s like-

假设，我什至不反对任何建议，但就像-

The micromanagement.

微观管理。

…

……

2:20:55 just the micromanagement and the politeness, but the fake politeness.

只是微观管理和礼貌，但假礼貌。

It just makes me feel like, I think, “What would Kubrick do?” Would he murder all of them right now?

我想，这让我感觉“库布里克会怎么做？”他现在会杀掉他们所有人吗？

He would just ban them after he became Stanley Kubrick, but he dealt with it for a while.

成为斯坦利·库布里克后，他就会禁止它们，但他处理了一段时间。

2:21:08 By the way, I just went on a Kubrick binge.

顺便说一句，我刚刚狂看了库布里克。

Man, he was awesome.

伙计，他太棒了。

Yeah.

是的。

I watched that World War I movie of his, the one from the ’50s.

我看过他拍摄的一部关于第一次世界大战的电影，那是一部 50 年代的电影。

2:21:17 That is such an underrated film.

这是一部被低估的电影。

I feel like people don’t…

我感觉人们不...

Whatever.

无论如何。

We’ll get past it.

我们会克服它的。

I guess she paid for-

我猜她付了钱——

A hundred grand, bro.

一百多啊兄弟

…

……

2:21:31 and the Oprah thing.

还有奥普拉的事。

She paid for the interviews?

她付了采访费吗？

That’s another one.

那是另一件事。

2:21:35 I do this for a living.

我这样做是为了谋生。

As you can tell, I’m a very cynical person.

正如你所知，我是一个非常愤世嫉俗的人。

I did not even know that celebrities got paid for their endorsements.

我什至不知道名人通过代言获得报酬。

I could never have imagined a universe where Oprah Winfrey has paid $1 million to endorse Kamala Harris.

我从未想象过奥普拉·温弗瑞 (Oprah Winfrey) 花费 100 万美元来支持卡玛拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris)。

I’m like, “First of all, you’re a billionaire.” Second, “I thought you’d do this because you believe.”

我说：“首先，你是亿万富翁。”其次，“我认为你会这样做，因为你相信。”

No, to be fair, I think the million just helps do the thing you would like to do.

不，公平地说，我认为这一百万只是帮助你做你想做的事情。

2:21:55 It’s a nudge.

这是一个推动。

Because I don’t think any celebrity would endorse-

因为我认为没有哪个名人会认可——

Yeah, yeah, they’re not doing it because of the money.

是的，是的，他们这样做不是因为钱。

2:22:06 You should just do it for free.

你应该免费做。

I can’t even believe that you’re doing this for money.

我什至不敢相信你这样做是为了钱。

The fact, what was it, Alanis Morissette, they had to cut her because they didn’t have the funds to pay her.

事实上，这是什么，艾拉妮丝·莫莉塞特，他们不得不裁掉她，因为他们没有钱支付她的工资。

I’m like, “First of all, if you believe, you should just play for free.” But second, again, as a person who is deeply cynical, I still am genuinely shook that we are paying celebrities for their endorsement.

我说，“首先，如果你相信，你就应该免费玩。”但其次，作为一个非常愤世嫉俗的人，我仍然对我们付钱给名人代言感到震惊。

Yeah, it’s really fucked up.

是的，真的很操蛋。

That’s insane.

这太疯狂了。

Why do you think people on the left who are actually in the political arena are afraid of doing anything longer than an hour?

你认为为什么真正身处政坛的左翼人士害怕做超过一个小时的事情？

That’s a great question.

这是一个很好的问题。

Let me just say, probably most of the people I’ve talked to on this podcast are left wing or have been for a long time.

我只想说，可能我在这个播客上交谈过的大多数人都是左翼人士，或者已经很长时间了。

2:22:42 They just don’t out and say it.

他们只是不说出来。

Most scientists are left wing.

大多数科学家都是左翼。

Most vaguely political people are left wing that I’ve talked to.

我采访过的大多数模糊政治人士都是左翼人士。

But the closer you get to the actual political arena, and I’ve tried really hard, they just, “Nope.” I had a bunch of people, the highest profile people say 15 minutes, 20 minutes.

但你越接近实际的政治舞台，而且我已经非常努力地尝试，他们只是说：“不。”我有一群人，最引人注目的人说15分钟，20分钟。

I say, “Nope.”

我说：“不。”

I’m used to that, so welcome.

我已经习惯了，所以欢迎。

I just can’t imagine a conversation with Kamala or with Joe Biden or AOC-

我只是无法想象与卡马拉、乔·拜登或 AOC 的对话——

Obama.

奥巴马。

…

……

2:23:31 or Obama that’s of any quality at all that shows any kind of humanity of the person, the genius of the person, the interesting nuance of the person in 30 minutes.

或者奥巴马，任何品质都可以在 30 分钟内展现出这个人的人性、这个人的天才、这个人有趣的细微差别。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Maybe there’s people that are extremely skilled that can do that.

也许有非常熟练的人可以做到这一点。

You just can’t.

你就是做不到。

You should be optimistic because a huge narrative out of this election is that the Democrats massively fucked up by not coming on this show or a Rogan show.

你应该乐观，因为这次选举的一个重要故事是，民主党因为没有参加这个节目或罗根节目而彻底搞砸了。

2:23:52 Fundamentally, number one, that’s going to change dramatically-

从根本上来说，第一，这将会发生巨大的变化——

I hope so.

我希望如此。

…

……

2:24:03 so be optimistic and keep pushing.

所以要保持乐观并继续努力。

Two, this is a good segue actually, I’ve been thinking a lot about, I know a lot of people listening to this show who are in tech and may have some influence on the admin, this is something I want people to take really seriously, is I was a White House correspondent for The Daily Caller, it’s a conservative outlet, in Washington during the Trump years.

第二，这实际上是一个很好的转折，我一直在思考很多，我知道很多听这个节目的人都是科技行业的，可能对政府有一些影响，这是我希望人们认真对待的事情，我是《每日来电》的白宫记者，这是特朗普执政期间华盛顿的一个保守派媒体。

The most important thing I learned from that was that under the White House Correspondents’ Association, the way that the media cartel has everything set up for access for press to the President is fundamentally broken, anti-American, and bad for actual democracy.

我从中学到的最重要的事情是，在白宫记者协会的领导下，媒体卡特尔为新闻界采访总统所做的一切准备工作从根本上被破坏了，是反美的，也不利于真正的民主。

So let me lay this out at a very mechanical level because nobody knows this.

因此，让我从一个非常机械的层面来阐述这一点，因为没有人知道这一点。

I was a former White House Correspondents’ Association member, so anybody who says I’m full of shit, I was there.

我是前白宫记者协会成员，所以如果有人说我满嘴胡言，我就在那儿。

2:24:53 For example, number one, all the seats in the Briefing Room, those seats are assigned by the White House Correspondents’ Association, not by the White House itself.

比如说第一，新闻发布室的所有座位，这些座位都是白宫记者协会分配的，而不是白宫自己分配的。

The White House Correspondents’ Association requires you to apply for a seat.

白宫记者协会要求您申请席位。

That adjudication process can take literally years for bylaws, elections, and all these things to do.

章程、选举和所有这些事情的裁决过程实际上可能需要数年时间。

This means that they can slow roll the entrance of new media online outlets who are allowed into the room.

这意味着他们可以缓慢滚动获准进入房间的新媒体在线渠道的入口。

The reason it really matters not having a seat is if you don’t have a seat, you have to get there early and stand in the wings, like I used to, and raise your hand like this and just hope and pray that the press secretary can see.

没有座位真的很重要，因为如果你没有座位，你必须早点到达那里，站在侧翼，就像我以前那样，像这样举起手，只是希望并祈祷新闻秘书能看到。

It’s extremely inconvenient.

非常不方便。

I’m talking, I have to get there hours early at a chance during a 15-minute briefing.

我是说，我必须在 15 分钟的简报会上一有机会就提前几个小时到达那里。

2:25:32 So one of the things is that Trump has is he owes a huge part of his election to coming on podcasts and to new media.

因此，特朗普的一件事是，他的当选很大程度上归功于播客和新媒体。

Now, because of that, it’s really important that the White House Correspondents’ Association, which is a literal guild cartel that keeps people out of the White House and credentials itself and creates this opaque mechanism through which they control access to asking the press secretary questions, is destroyed.

正因为如此，白宫记者协会是一个真正的行会卡特尔，它阻止人们进入白宫和凭证本身，并创建了一种不透明的机制，通过该机制控制向新闻秘书提问的机会，现在，摧毁它是非常重要的。

There are a lot of different ways you can do this.

您可以通过多种不同的方式来做到这一点。

Because what nobody gets, too, is that all of these rules are unofficial.

因为没有人知道所有这些规则都是非官方的。

For example, they’re just traditions.

例如，它们只是传统。

The White House is like, “Yeah, it’s our building, but you guys figure it out,” because that’s a longstanding tradition.

白宫就像是，“是的，这是我们的建筑，但你们自己明白，”因为这是一个长期的传统。

2:26:15 Let me give you another insane tradition that currently exists in the White House.

让我告诉你白宫目前存在的另一个疯狂的传统。

The Associated Press or the Associated Press correspondent gets to start the briefing, traditionally.

按照传统，美联社或美联社记者开始通报情况。

They get the first question.

他们得到了第一个问题。

They also get to end the briefing.

他们还可以结束简报会。

When they think it’s been enough time, they’ll be like, “Okay, Karine Jean-Pierre, thank you,” and that calls the briefing over.

当他们认为时间已经足够时，他们会说，“好吧，卡琳·让-皮埃尔，谢谢你”，然后简报会就结束了。

What?

什么？

You’re not even in the White House Correspondents’ Association.

你甚至不在白宫记者协会。

You literally just happen to work for the Associated Press.

你实际上只是碰巧为美联社工作。

Why?

为什么？

Why do we allow that to happen?

为什么我们允许这种情况发生？

So number one, stop doing that.

所以第一，停止这样做。

To their credit, the Trump people didn’t really do that, but it’s a longstanding tradition.

值得赞扬的是，特朗普人并没有真正这样做，但这是一个长期的传统。

2:26:49 The other thing is that what nobody gets either is that the first row is all television networks for logistical reasons so that they can do their little stand-ups with their mic and say, “I’m reporting for [inaudible 02:27:00].” Well, what people don’t seem to know is that all the television networks are basically going to ask some version of the same question.

另一件事是，没有人得到的是，出于后勤原因，第一排都是电视网络，这样他们就可以用麦克风进行小型站立表演并说：“我正在报道[听不清 02:27:00]。”嗯，人们似乎不知道的是，所有电视网络基本上都会问同一问题的某个版本。

The reason they do that is because they need a clip of their correspondent going after the White House press secretary all out, Robert Mueller, like whenever I was there.

他们这样做的原因是因为他们需要一段他们的记者全力追捕白宫新闻秘书罗伯特·穆勒的片段，就像我在那里的时候一样。

So you get the same goddamn version of the stupid political questions over and over again.

所以你会一遍又一遍地得到相同版本的愚蠢政治问题。

2:27:23 The Briefing Room is designed for traditional media, and they have all the access in the world.

简报室是为传统媒体设计的，他们拥有世界上所有的访问权限。

So in an election where you owe your victory, at least in part, to new media and recognizing the changing landscape, you need to change the conduit of information to the American people.

因此，在一场选举中，你的胜利至少部分归功于新媒体和认识到不断变化的形势，你需要改变向美国人民传递信息的渠道。

And in an election, I don’t know if you saw this, but election night coverage on cable news was down 25%, just in four years, 25%.

在一次选举中，我不知道你是否看到了这一点，但有线电视新闻的选举之夜报道下降了 25%，仅仅四年内就下降了 25%。

That’s astounding.

这太令人震惊了。

Cable news had a monopoly on election night for my entire lifetime, and yet, my show had record ratings that night.

在我的一生中，有线电视新闻垄断了选举之夜，然而，我的节目那天晚上的收视率创下了纪录。

2:27:58 Look, I’m a small slice of the puzzle here.

看，我只是这里拼图的一小部分。

We’ve got Candice Owens, Patrick Bet-David, Tim Pool, David Pakman, TYT, all these other people.

我们有 Candice Owens、Patrick Bet-David、Tim Pool、David Pakman、TYT 以及所有其他人。

From what I understand, all of us blew it out that night because millions of Americans watched it on YouTube.

据我了解，那天晚上我们所有人都把它搞砸了，因为数百万美国人在 YouTube 上观看了它。

We even partnered with some Decision Desk HQs, so we had live data.

我们甚至与一些决策台总部合作，因此我们拥有实时数据。

We could make state calls.

我们可以拨打政府电话。

We’re just a silly little YouTube show.

我们只是 YouTube 上的一个愚蠢的小节目。

My point, though, is that in an election where the vast majority of Americans under the age of 55 are listening to podcasts, consuming new media, and are not watching cable news, where the median age of CNN, which is the youngest viewership, is 68.

不过，我的观点是，在选举中，绝大多数 55 岁以下的美国人都在听播客、消费新媒体，而不是观看有线电视新闻，而收视率最年轻的 CNN 的中位年龄为 68 岁。

68 is the median.

68 是中位数。

Statistically, what does that tell us?

从统计数据来看，这告诉我们什么？

There’s a decent number of people who are watching CNN who are in their ’80s and in their ’90s.

有相当多的 80 多岁和 90 多岁的人在收看 CNN。

2:28:46 Yeah, I’m glad you brought up Alex, because he deserves a tremendous shout out, Alex Bruesewitz.

是的，我很高兴你提到了亚历克斯，因为他值得大声疾呼，亚历克斯布鲁塞维茨。

He was the pioneer of the podcast strategy for the Donald J.

他是唐纳德·J·特朗普播客策略的先驱。

Trump campaign.

特朗普竞选活动。

He got on your show.

他参加了你的节目。

He was able to get on Andrew Schulz’s show, Rogan.

他能够参加安德鲁·舒尔茨的节目《罗根》。

He was the internal force that pushed a lot of this.

他是推动这一切的内力。

My personal hope is that somebody like Alex is elevated in the traditional White House bureaucracy, that the number of credentials that are issued to these mainstream media outlets is cut, and there’s a new lottery process put in place where people with large audiences are invited.

我个人的希望是，像亚历克斯这样的人在传统的白宫官僚机构中得到提升，向这些主流媒体发放的证书数量减少，并建立一个新的抽签程序来邀请拥有大量观众的人。

2:29:19 I also want to make a case here for why I think it’s really important for people like you and others who don’t have as much traditional media experience to come and practice some capital J journalism because it will sharpen you, too, giving you access in that pressure cooker environment.

我还想在这里说明为什么我认为对于像你这样的人和其他没有那么多传统媒体经验的人来说，练习一些资本J新闻是非常重要的，因为它也会让你变得更加敏锐，让你能够进入高压锅环境。

Having to really sit there and spar a little bit with a public official and not have as long necessarily as you’re used to, it really hones your news media skills, your news gathering skills, and it will make you a better interviewer in the long run.

必须真正坐在那里与公职人员争论一会儿，而且不一定像你习惯的那样长时间，这确实磨练了你的新闻媒体技能、新闻收集技能，从长远来看，它会让你成为一个更好的采访者。

2:29:50 Because a lot of the things that I have learned have just been through osmosis.

因为我学到的很多东西都是潜移默化的。

I’ve just lived in DC.

我刚住在华盛顿。

I’ve been so lucky, I’ve had a lot of cool jobs, and I’ve just been able to experience a lot of this stuff.

我很幸运，我做过很多很酷的工作，而且我刚刚经历了很多这样的事情。

So I’m really hoping that people who are listening to this who may have some influence or even the viewership, if you want to reach out to them and all them, this is a very easily changeable problem.

所以我真的希望那些听这个的人可能有一些影响力，甚至收视率，如果你想接触到他们，接触到他们所有人，这是一个很容易改变的问题。

It’s a cartel which has no official power.

这是一个没有官方权力的卡特尔组织。

It’s all power by tradition, and it needs to be blown up.

这都是传统的力量，需要被摧毁。

It does not serve America’s interests to have 48 seats, I think, in the White House Press Briefing Room to people who have audiences of like five.

我认为，在白宫新闻发布厅为拥有五个左右观众的人提供 48 个席位，并不符合美国的利益。

It just makes absolutely zero.

它只是绝对为零。

Workspace, seats, access, credentials, and also credentials that are issued to other new media journalists at major events should take precedence.

工作空间、座位、通道、证件以及在重大活动中向其他新媒体记者颁发的证件应优先考虑。

Because it’s not even about rewarding the creator.

因为这甚至不是为了奖励创造者。

The American people are here.

美国人民在这里。

You need to meet them.

你需要见见他们。

That’s your job.

那是你的工作。

2:30:48 I’ll just end with a historical thing.

我将以一件历史事件作为结束。

Barack Obama shocked the White House Press Corps in 2009 because he took a question from the Huffington Post, a brand new blog, but they were stunned because he knew, he said, “These blog people, they went all in for me, and I got to reward them.” So there’s a longstanding precedence of this.

2009 年，巴拉克·奥巴马 (Barack Obama) 震惊了白宫记者团，因为他接受了全新博客《赫芬顿邮报》(Huffington Post) 的提问，但他们感到震惊，因为他知道，他说，“这些博客的人，他们全力支持我，我必须奖励他们。”所以这有一个长期的优先权。

They’ll bitch and they’ll moan.

他们会发牢骚，他们会呻吟。

They’ll be upset.

他们会很不高兴。

But it’s their fault that they don’t have as much credibility.

但他们的错是他们没有那么多的可信度。

It’s incumbent upon the White House, which serves the public, to actually meet them where they are.

为公众服务的白宫有责任在他们所在的地方实际与他们会面。

So I really hope that at least some of this is implemented inside of it.

所以我真的希望至少其中一些是在它内部实现的。

If you break apart the cartel, I think you can actually enable greater journalism, frankly-

坦率地说，如果你打破卡特尔，我认为你实际上可以实现更大的新闻业——

Of course.

当然。

…

……

2:31:29 with a capital J.

大写的 J。

Because actually in the long form is when you can do better journalism from even just the politician perspective.

因为实际上从长远来看，即使只是从政治家的角度来看，你也可以做得更好。

You can disagree.

你可以不同意。

You can get criticized because you can defend yourself.

你可能会受到批评，因为你可以为自己辩护。

I had an idea, actually.

事实上我有一个想法。

2:31:41 You tell me what you think.

你告诉我你的想法。

I think a really cool format would be there’s a room right near the Press Briefing Room called the Roosevelt Room.

我认为一个非常酷的格式是在新闻发布室附近有一个房间，称为罗斯福室。

A beautiful room, by the way.

顺便说一下，一个漂亮的房间。

It’s awesome.

太棒了。

It has the Medal of Honor for Teddy Roosevelt, and it has a portrait of him and a portrait of FDR.

它有泰迪·罗斯福的荣誉勋章，还有他的肖像和罗斯福的肖像。

It’s one of my favorite rooms in the White House.

这是我在白宫最喜欢的房间之一。

Fuck, yeah.

他妈的，是的。

It’s so cool.

太酷了。

2:31:56 So my idea would be in the Roosevelt Room, which traditionally used for press briefings and stuff, is you as the press secretary sit there, I think there’s like 12 seats, something like that, and you set it all up.

所以我的想法是在罗斯福厅，传统上用于新闻发布会等，你作为新闻秘书坐在那里，我想大概有 12 个座位，类似的东西，你把它全部设置好。

You have, let’s say, Shure microphones like this, and that secretary is going to commit to being there for two hours.

比方说，你有这样的舒尔麦克风，而那位秘书将承诺在那里工作两个小时。

New media people can sit around the room.

新媒体人员可以坐在房间周围。

All of this being streamed live, by the way, just like the White House Press Briefing Room.

顺便说一下，所有这些都是现场直播的，就像白宫新闻发布会室一样。

2:32:24 The expectation is that the type of questions have to be substantive.

我们期望问题的类型必须是实质性的。

Obviously, nothing is off limits.

显然，没有什么是禁止的。

You should never, ever accept, “I’m not going to be asked about this.” Especially as a journalist, you can’t do that.

你永远不应该接受“我不会被问到这个问题”。尤其是作为一名记者，你不能这样做。

Every time they’re like, “Hey, please don’t ask about this,” it’s like, actually, that’s probably one thing you should ask about.

每次他们都会说，“嘿，请不要问这个”，实际上，这可能是你应该问的一件事。

My point being that the expectation is that there’s no interference on the White House side, but that the format itself will lend exactly to what you’re saying to allow people to explain.

我的观点是，期望白宫方面不会进行干预，但这种形式本身将完全符合你所说的内容，让人们能够解释。

2:32:51 Again, in a media era where we need to trust the consumer, my show is routinely over two hours long on cable television.

同样，在我们需要信任消费者的媒体时代，我的节目在有线电视上通常持续两个多小时。

On cable television, the Tucker Carlson program, whenever it was on Fox News, without commercial breaks was about 42, 43 minutes, something like that, of runtime.

在有线电视上，塔克·卡尔森的节目，无论何时在福克斯新闻上播出，没有广告插播的时间大约是 42、43 分钟，类似的时间。

So I’m speaking for almost triple what that is on a regular basis.

所以我所说的价格几乎是常规价格的三倍。

The point is is that millions are willing to sit and to listen, but you just have to meet them where they are.

关键是数百万人愿意坐下来倾听，但你只需在他们所在的地方与他们会面即可。

So I really hope that a format like that, like a streamer briefing or something like that, I think it’s…

所以我真的希望有这样的形式，比如主播简报或类似的东西，我认为......

Look, I know they would dunk on it endlessly, but I think it could work.

听着，我知道他们会无休止地扣篮，但我认为这可行。

Yeah, I think the incentives are different.

是的，我认为激励措施是不同的。

2:33:31 I think it works because you, like you saw, don’t have to signal to the other journalists that you’re part of clique.

我认为它之所以有效，是因为就像你所看到的那样，你不必向其他记者表明你是小集团的一部分。

Oh, I’m so glad you brought that up because that was another lesson I learned.

哦，我很高兴你提出这个问题，因为这是我学到的另一个教训。

2:33:41 I go, “Oh, none of you are asking important questions for the people.

我说：“哦，你们都没有为人民提出重要的问题。

You’re asking questions because you all hang out with each other, and you’re like, ‘Oh, wait.'” So this entire thing is a self-reinforcing guild to impress each other at cocktail parties and not to actually ask anything interesting.

你们之所以问问题，是因为你们都在一起闲逛，然后你们就会说，‘哦，等等。’”所以这整件事是一个自我强化的公会，目的是在鸡尾酒会上给彼此留下深刻印象，而不是真正问任何有趣的事情。

I remember people were so mad at me because, this was 2018 or maybe 2017, and I said, “Do you think that Kim Jong Un is sincere in his willingness to meet with you?” something to that effect.

我记得人们对我很生气，因为那是 2018 年或者 2017 年，我说，“你认为金正恩愿意与你会面是真诚的吗？”达到这种效果的东西。

They were furious because I didn’t ask about some bullshit political controversy that was happening at the time.

他们很生气，因为我没有询问当时正在发生的一些狗屎政治争议。

So in the historical legacy, what was more important?

那么在历史遗产中，什么更重要呢？

The Mueller question, or Donald Trump breaking 50 years or whatever of tradition with America’s relationship with North Korea and meeting him in Singapore and basically resetting that relationship for all time?

穆勒问题，还是唐纳德·特朗普打破了美国与朝鲜关系 50 年来的传统，并在新加坡与他会面，基本上永久重置了这种关系？

2:34:36 As you can tell, I read a lot of books.

正如你所知，我读了很多书。

I like to take the long view.

我喜欢把目光放长远。

Every time I would ask a question, I go, when the future Robert Caro is writing books and he’s reading the transcript of the White House press briefing, he doesn’t even know who this kid is, he goes, “Oh, that was a pretty good question right there.

每次我问问题时，当未来的罗伯特·卡罗正在写书，他正在阅读白宫新闻发布会的文字记录时，他甚至不知道这个孩子是谁，他说，“哦，这是一个很好的问题。

That’s pretty relevant.” You got to think about all the bullshit that gets left on the cutting room floor.

这非常相关。”你必须考虑剪辑室地板上留下的所有废话。

I love that view of journalism, actually.

事实上，我喜欢新闻业的这种观点。

2:34:57 The goal is to end up as one line in a history book.

我们的目标是最终成为历史书中的一行。

2:35:00 The goal is to end up as one line in a history book 50 years from now.

我们的目标是在 50 年后成为历史书中的一行字。

Yes.

是的。

2:35:05 I just want a quote of what the president said to something that I asked.

我只想引用总统对我提出的问题所说的话。

Yes, in a book.

是的，在一本书里。

That’s, “I would be happy.

那就是：“我会很高兴。

2:35:08 I would die happy with that.” If you told me that when I’m like a nine-year-old man, I’d be like, “Man.” Right?

我会心满意足地死去。”如果你告诉我，当我像一个九岁的男人时，我会说，“伙计。”正确的？

That means I succeeded.

这意味着我成功了。

When the AIs write the history of human civilization.

当人工智能书写人类文明史时。

Yeah.

是的。

One of the things I continuously learned from you, when looking back through history, is how crazy American politics has been throughout history.

在回顾历史时，我不断从你那里学到的一件事是，美国政治在历史上是多么疯狂。

2:35:19 It makes me feel a lot better about the current day.

这让我对今天的感觉好多了。

It should.

它应该。

Corruption.

腐败。

Yes.

是的。

Just the divisiveness, also.

也只是分裂。

2:35:34 Just the insanity-

只是疯狂——

It’s been way worse.

情况更糟了。

…

……

2:35:41 of stealing elections at all levels of government, and direct stealing and indirect stealing, all kinds of stuff.

窃取各级政府的选举，直接窃取和间接窃取，各种各样的东西。

So, is there stuff that jumps out to mind throughout history that’s just like the craziest corruptions or stealing of elections that come to mind?

那么，历史上是否有一些事情会像最疯狂的腐败或窃取选举一样浮现在脑海中呢？

I’ll give them the micro and the macro.

我会给他们微观和宏观的信息。

2:35:59 So my favorite example is Robert Caro, who I’ve probably talked about him a lot.

所以我最喜欢的例子是罗伯特·卡罗（Robert Caro），我可能已经多次谈论过他。

God bless you, Robert.

上帝保佑你，罗伯特。

I hope you lived to write your last book because we really need that from you.

我希望你能活着写出你的最后一本书，因为我们真的需要你。

2:36:10 But Robert came to Texas.

但罗伯特来到了德克萨斯州。

He only intended on writing three books about Lyndon Johnson.

他只想写三本关于林登·约翰逊的书。

He’s currently completed four and he is on his fifth, and it’s taken over 40 years to write those.

他目前已经完成了四本，现在正在写第五本，写这些书花了 40 多年的时间。

And one of the reasons is he just kept uncovering so much stuff.

原因之一是他不断发现太多东西。

And one of them is book two, Means of Ascent.

其中之一是第二本书，《攀登之路》。

He never intended to write it, but as he began to investigate Lyndon Johnson’s 1948 Senate election, he realizes in real time how rigged and stolen it was.

他从来没有打算写下来，但当他开始调查林登·约翰逊 1948 年参议院选举时，他实时意识到它是如何被操纵和盗窃的。

And so I often tell people, “What if I told you that we lived in the most secure election period in modern history?” They wouldn’t believe it.

所以我经常告诉人们，“如果我告诉你我们生活在现代历史上最安全的选举时期怎么办？”他们不会相信。

But if you read through that shit, I’m talking about bags of cash, millions of dollars, literal stuffed ballot boxes.

但如果你读过那些狗屎，我说的是一袋袋现金，数百万美元，字面上的填充选票箱。

2:36:57 It’s great to be back here in Texas because I always think about that place down in Zapata and Starr County.

很高兴回到德克萨斯州，因为我总是想起萨帕塔和斯塔尔县的那个地方。

I’m talking like basically Mexico, where these dons were in power in the 1940s.

我说的基本上是墨西哥，这些大佬在 20 世纪 40 年代掌权。

They would literally stuff the ballot boxes with the rolls, and they wouldn’t even allow people to come and vote.

他们实际上会把选票塞进投票箱，甚至不允许人们来投票。

They just check marked it all for you based upon the amount that you paid.

他们只是根据您支付的金额为您检查标记。

Means of Ascent is the painstaking detail of exactly how Lyndon Johnson stole the 1948 Senate election.

《上升之路》详细描述了林登·约翰逊 (Lyndon Johnson) 如何窃取 1948 年参议院选举的胜利。

And nothing like that, as far as I know, is still happening.

据我所知，类似的事情现在还没有发生。

2:37:31 Macro, we can talk about the 1876 election.

宏观方面，我们可以谈谈1876年的选举。

Rutherford B.

卢瑟福 B.

Hayes, one of the closest elections in modern history.

海斯，现代历史上最接近的选举之一。

It was one of those that got kicked with the House of Representatives.

这是遭到众议院否决的法案之一。

That was an insane, insane time.

那是一段疯狂、疯狂的时光。

The corrupt bargain that was struck to basically end reconstruction and federal occupation of the South.

为了基本上结束重建和联邦对南方的占领而达成的腐败交易。

And of course, the amount of wheeling and dealing that happened inside of that was absolutely bonkers and nuts.

当然，其中发生的大量的交易和交易绝对是疯狂的。

That was what an actual stolen election looks like, just so people know.

正如人们所知，这就是真正被盗的选举的样子。

2:37:59 So on a micro and a macro, yeah, that’s what it really looks like.

所以从微观和宏观来看，是的，这就是它真正的样子。

And so look, I understand where people are coming from.

所以看，我明白人们来自哪里。

Also, let’s do, what?

另外，让我们做什么？

1960?

1960年？

That was pretty wild.

那真是太疯狂了。

In 1960, there was all those allegations about Illinois going for Kennedy.

1960 年，有很多关于伊利诺伊州支持肯尼迪的指控。

If you look at the actual vote totals of Kennedy-Nixon, wow.

如果你看看肯尼迪-尼克松的实际得票总数，哇。

I mean, it’s such an insanely close presidential election.

我的意思是，这是一场非常接近的总统选举。

And even though the electoral college victory looks a little bit differently, Nixon would openly talk about.

尽管选举团的胜利看起来有点不同，尼克松还是会公开谈论。

He’s like, “Oh, old Joe Kennedy rigged Illinois for his boy.” And he’d be like, “And we didn’t even have a chance in Texas with Lyndon pulling.” Like, Lyndon stuffing the ballot boxes down there.

他就像是，“哦，老乔·肯尼迪为他的儿子操纵了伊利诺伊州。”他会说，“在林登的带领下，我们在德克萨斯州甚至没有机会。”就像林登把投票箱塞在那里一样。

And this is open on the…

这是开放的......

2:38:42 They openly admit this stuff.

他们公开承认这些事情。

They talk about it.

他们谈论它。

So actually, there’s a funny story.

事实上，有一个有趣的故事。

LBJ lost, I think, his 1941 Senate primary.

我认为 LBJ 在 1941 年的参议院初选中失败了。

And it’s because that his opponent, Pappy O’Daniel, actually outstole Lyndon.

这是因为他的对手帕皮·奥丹尼尔实际上超过了林登。

So they were both corrupt, but Pappy O’Daniel stuffed the ballot box in the fifth day of the seven days to count the votes.

所以他们都腐败了，但帕皮·奥丹尼尔在7天的第五天把票塞进了投票箱来计票。

And FDR loved LBJ.

罗斯福也喜欢林登·约翰逊。

And it’s interesting, right?

这很有趣，对吧？

FDR recognized Johnson’s.

罗斯福认可了约翰逊的观点。

His talent.

他的才华。

And he goes, “Lyndon?

他说：“林登？

You know in New York, we sit on the ballot boxes until we count them.” Because he’s admitting that he participated in a lot of this stuff.

你知道，在纽约，我们坐在投票箱上直到点票。”因为他承认他参与了很多这样的事情。

2:39:25 So, this high-level chicanery of stolen elections is actually an American pastime that we luckily have moved on from.

因此，这种高层欺骗选举的行为实际上是美国的一种消遣，幸运的是我们已经摆脱了这种消遣。

And quite a lot of people do not know the exact intricate details of how wild it was back in the day.

而且很多人并不知道当时有多狂野的确切复杂细节。

Yeah, it’s actually one of the things.

是的，这实际上是其中之一。

2:39:40 It’s harder to pull off a bunch of bullshit with all these cameras everywhere now.

现在到处都有这些摄像头，要说一堆废话已经很难了。

Mm-hmm.

嗯嗯。

2:39:45 Transparency too, lack of cash, banking regulations.

透明度也是如此，缺乏现金，银行监管。

There’s a variety of reasons, but yeah.

原因有很多，但是是的。

So that said, let’s talk about the 2020 election.

话虽如此，我们来谈谈 2020 年大选。

2:39:50 It seems like forever ago.

似乎已经是很久以前的事了。

Do you think it was rigged the way that Trump claimed?

你认为它是像特朗普声称的那样被操纵的吗？

No.

不。

And was it rigged in other ways?

它是否以其他方式被操纵？

Look, this is the problem with language like rigged.

看，这就是操纵语言的问题。

2:40:02 And by the way, when I interviewed Vivek Ramaswamy, he said the exact same thing.

顺便说一句，当我采访维韦克·拉马斯瓦米时，他也说了同样的话。

So for all the MAGA people who are going to get mad at me, Vivek agrees.

因此，对于所有会生我气的 MAGA 人，Vivek 表示同意。

All right?

好的？

And if…

如果……

2:40:14 Okay.

好的。

I have observed, and I’m going to put my analyst hat on.

我已经观察到了，我将戴上分析师的帽子。

There are two theories of Stop the Steal.

停止盗窃有两种理论。

One I call Low IQ Stop the Steal, and one I call High IQ Stop the Steal.

一种我称之为“低智商停止偷窃”，另一种我称之为“高智商停止偷窃”。

Low IQ Stop the Steal is basically what Donald Trump has advocated where Dominion voting machines, and bamboo ballots, and Venezuela and Sidney Powell, and all of the people involved basically got indicted by the state of Georgia.

低智商停止盗窃基本上是唐纳德·特朗普所提倡的，其中自治领投票机、竹选票、委内瑞拉和西德尼·鲍威尔以及所有相关人员基本上都被佐治亚州起诉。

I’m not saying that that was correct.

我并不是说那是正确的。

I’m just like, that’s what that actually looked like.

我只是想，这就是实际情况。

Rudy Giuliani, et cetera.

鲁迪·朱利安尼等。

2:40:46 High IQ Stop the Steal is basically…

高智商停止偷窃基本上是……

And actually, these are not illegitimate arguments.

事实上，这些并不是非法的论点。

The school of thought is it was illegitimate for the state of Pennsylvania and other swing states to change mail-in balloting laws as a response to COVID, which enabled millions of people more to vote that wouldn’t have, and that those change in regulations became enough to swing the election.

学派的观点是，宾夕法尼亚州和其他摇摆州为应对新冠疫情而改变邮寄投票法是非法的，这使得数百万人能够投票，而这些法规的改变足以左右选举。

I actually think that that is true.

我实际上认为这是真的。

Now, would you say that that’s rigged?

现在，你会说这是被操纵的吗？

That’s a very important question because we’re talking about a Republican state legislature, a Republican state supreme court.

这是一个非常重要的问题，因为我们谈论的是共和党州立法机构、共和党州最高法院。

Right?

正确的？

The two that actually ruled on this question.

实际上对这个问题作出裁决的两人。

So, could you say that it was rigged by the Democrats to do that?

那么，你能说这是民主党操纵的吗？

2:41:26 Another problem with that theory is that while you can say that that’s unfair to change the rules last time around, you can also understand it to a certain extent.

这个理论的另一个问题是，虽然你可以说上次改变规则是不公平的，但你也可以在一定程度上理解它。

And I’m not justifying it, I’m just giving you an example.

我并不是在证明这一点，我只是给你举个例子。

So for example, after the hurricane hit North Carolina, Republican officials were like, “Hey, we need to make sure that these people in Western North Carolina who were affected by the hurricane could still be able to have access to the ballot box.”

例如，飓风袭击北卡罗来纳州后，共和党官员说，“嘿，我们需要确保北卡罗来纳州西部受飓风影响的这些人仍然能够进入投票箱。”

2:41:51 And people were like, “Oh, so you’re saying in an extraordinary circumstance that you should change voting access and regularity to make sure that people have access?” So, my point is you can see the logic through which this happened.

人们会说，“哦，所以你是说在特殊情况下你应该改变投票机会和规律性，以确保人们有机会投票？”所以，我的观点是你可以看到这件事发生的逻辑。

And the high IQ version is basically the one that was adopted by Josh Hawley whenever he voted against certification.

而高智商版本基本上就是乔什·霍利（Josh Hawley）每次投票反对认证时所采用的版本。

He said that the state of Pennsylvania, particularly election law, and that those changes were unfair and led to the, quote-unquote, rigging of the election against Donald Trump.

他表示，宾夕法尼亚州，特别是选举法，这些变化是不公平的，导致了对唐纳德·特朗普的选举操纵。

Now, there’s an even higher IQ, Galaxy Brain Stop the Steal.

现在，有一个更高的智商，Galaxy Brain Stop the Steal。

Galaxy Brain Stop the Steal is one that you saw, with great love and respect, my friend JD Vance, at his debate with Tim Walsh.

我的朋友 JD Vance 在与 Tim Walsh 的辩论中带着极大的爱和尊重看到了 Galaxy Brain Stop the Steal。

When Tim Walsh asked him, [inaudible 02:42:36].

当蒂姆·沃尔什问他时，[听不清 02:42:36]。

He said, “Did Donald Trump win the 2020 election?”

他问道：“唐纳德·特朗普赢得了 2020 年大选吗？”

2:42:38 He’s like, “Tim, I focus on the future.” And then he started talking about censorship, the Hunter Biden laptop story.

他说：“蒂姆，我专注于未来。”然后他开始谈论审查制度、亨特·拜登笔记本电脑的故事。

If you take a look at the Joe Rogan interview, Rogan actually asked JD this.

如果你看一下 Joe Rogan 的采访，Rogan 实际上问过 JD 这个问题。

He’s like, “What do you mean you’re in the election?

他说：“你参加选举是什么意思？

Some version of that.”

某个版本。”

2:42:52 And JD was like, “Well, what I get really frustrated by is people will bring up all of these insane conspiracy theories, but they ignore that the media censored the Hunter Biden laptop story, and that big tech had its finger on the thumb for the Democrats.” Now, that is empirically true.

JD 说，“好吧，让我真正感到沮丧的是，人们会提出所有这些疯狂的阴谋论，但他们忽视了媒体审查了亨特·拜登笔记本电脑的故事，以及大型科技公司对民主党的攻击。”现在，这在经验上是正确的。

Okay?

好的？

That is true, right?

确实如此，对吧？

Now, would you say that that’s rigged?

现在，你会说这是被操纵的吗？

I’m not going to use that word because that’s a very different word.

我不会使用这个词，因为这是一个非常不同的词。

Now, would you say that that’s unfair?

现在，你会说这不公平吗？

Yeah, I think it’s unfair.

是的，我认为这不公平。

2:43:19 So there’s another, a lot of MAGA folks picked up on this one.

所以还有另一个，很多 MAGA 人都注意到了这个。

There was a Time Magazine article in 2020 that’s very famous in their crowd, called the…

2020 年《时代》杂志有一篇文章在他们的人群中非常有名，名为……

It was like the fight to fortify the election, and it was about all of these institutions that put their fingers on the scale for Joe Biden against Donald Trump.

这就像一场巩固选举的斗争，所有这些机构都在为乔·拜登与唐纳德·特朗普的对决进行斗争。

So I will put it this way, was Donald Trump up against the Titanic forces of billionaires, tech censorship, and elite institutions who all did absolute damnedest to defeat him in 2020?

所以我会这么说，唐纳德·特朗普是否面临着由亿万富翁、技术审查制度和精英机构组成的泰坦尼克号力量的挑战，而这些人都在 2020 年竭尽全力地击败了他？

Yes, that is true.

是的，确实如此。

And in a sense, the Galaxy Brain case is the only one of those which I think is truly legitimate.

从某种意义上说，银河大脑案例是我认为真正合法的唯一案例。

2:44:03 And I’m not going to put it off the table, but this is the problem, that’s not what Trump means.

我不会把它排除在桌面之外，但这就是问题所在，这不是特朗普的意思。

Trump, by the way, will never tell you what I just told you.

顺便说一句，特朗普永远不会告诉你我刚才告诉你的事情。

JD will.

京东会的。

If you go and you ask any of these Republican politicians when they’re challenged on it and they don’t want to say that Trump loss at 2020 election, they’ll give the hype, the Galaxy Brain case that I just gave.

如果你去问这些共和党政客，当他们在这个问题上受到挑战时，他们不想说特朗普在 2020 年大选中失败，他们就会大肆宣传，即我刚刚给出的 Galaxy Brain 案例。

And again, I don’t think it’s wrong.

再说一遍，我不认为这是错误的。

But it’s like, guys, that’s not what he means when he says it.

但伙计们，他说这句话的时候并不是这个意思。

And that’s the important parsing of the case, right?

这就是案例的重要解析，对吧？

So first at a high level, Trump or otherwise, I don’t like anyone who whines when they lose.

因此，首先从高层来看，无论是特朗普还是其他人，我不喜欢任何在失败时抱怨的人。

2:44:33 Period.

时期。

Yeah.

是的。

2:44:38 Although, he did tell you he lost.

不过，他确实告诉你他输了。

Did you notice that?

你注意到了吗？

That’s the only time he’s ever said it.

这是他唯一一次这么说。

Ever.

曾经。

I did.

我做到了。

You’re famous.

你很有名。

2:44:43 You’re in history for that one.

你因此而载入史册。

Lost by the whisker.

被胡须迷失了。

Yeah.

是的。

2:44:46 “I lost by a whisker.”

“我差点就输了。”

I mean, there is a case to be made that he was joking, I don’t know.

我的意思是，有理由说他是在开玩笑，我不知道。

2:44:49 But there is a kind of weaving that he does with humor, where sometimes it’s sarcasm, sometimes not, much easier to showcase in a three-hour interview, I’ll say.

但他有一种幽默的编织方式，有时是讽刺，有时不是，我想说，在三个小时的采访中更容易展示。

Good call.

打得好。

2:45:03 Go ahead.

前进。

I couldn’t even play with that when you have 40 minutes.

当你有 40 分钟的时间时，我什至都无法玩这个。

I know, bro.

我知道，兄弟。

You’re like…

你就像……

2:45:08 I could do just 40 minutes on weaving alone.

我一个人只能织40分钟。

For your style, it doesn’t work.

对于你的风格来说，它不起作用。

2:45:13 And I can tell you how the way I interview politicians is I just do pure policy.

我可以告诉你我采访政客的方式是纯粹的政策。

So the first time I interviewed Trump, I compiled a list of 15 subjects, me and my editor Vince Coglianese.

因此，我第一次采访特朗普时，我和我的编辑 Vince Coglianese 编制了一份包含 15 个主题的清单。

Shout out to Vince.

向文斯大喊。

The two of us sat in an office and then we had questions by priority in each category.

我们两个坐在办公室里，然后我们按每个类别的优先顺序提出问题。

And if we felt like we were running short on time, we would move around those different ones.

如果我们觉得时间不够了，我们就会绕过那些不同的地方。

2:45:36 But that was purely, he’s the president.

但这纯粹是因为他是总统。

We’re asking him for his opinions on an immigration bill or whatever.

我们正在询问他对移民法案或其他什么的意见。

For what you do, it’s impossible to do it for you.

对于你所做的事情，不可能为你做。

Yeah.

是的。

2:45:43 I just want to say that thank you for everybody involved for making my conversation with Donald Trump possible, but I’ve learned a lot from that.

我只想说，感谢所有参与其中的人，让我与唐纳德·特朗普的对话成为可能，但我从中学到了很多东西。

That if I’m told that all I have is 40 minutes, I’m very politely sparing, in that case, Donald Trump, the 40 minutes and just walking away, because I don’t think I can do a good job.

如果我被告知我只有 40 分钟时间，我会非常有礼貌地节省 40 分钟，在这种情况下，唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump)，就走开，因为我认为我无法做好工作。

[inaudible 02:46:06]

[听不清 02:46:06]

I think that is the correct decision on your part.

我认为这是你的正确决定。

Yeah.

是的。

And I also would encourage you to have the confidence at this point, that you are in a position of something that we call, in the business, the ability to compel the interview.

我还鼓励您在这一点上充满信心，相信您在业务中拥有我们所说的迫使面试的能力。

2:46:08 And to compel means to be able to bring somebody else to you and not the other way around.

强迫意味着能够将其他人带到你身边，而不是相反。

And I think that you and Rogan and a few others are in that very unique position, and I would really encourage you guys to stick to your guns on things that make you feel comfortable.

我认为你和罗根以及其他一些人处于非常独特的位置，我真的鼓励你们坚持自己的观点，做让自己感觉舒服的事情。

2:46:34 Because those of us in news, we will always negotiate.

因为我们这些新闻界人士总是会进行谈判。

We’re willing to do short form because we’re asking about policy.

我们愿意做简短的形式，因为我们要询问政策。

But for the style that you help popularize, and I think that you’re uniquely talented and good at, that’s very important not to compromise on.

但对于你帮助推广的风格，而且我认为你具有独特的才华和擅长，这一点非常重要，不要妥协。

Thank you for saying those words.

谢谢你说这些话。

2:46:47 And that’s not just in the interest of journalism and the interest of conversations, it’s the interest of the guests as well.

这不仅符合新闻报道和对话的利益，也符合客人的利益。

Yeah, absolutely.

是的，绝对是。

To bring out the best in them.

让他们发挥出最好的一面。

Yeah.

是的。

2:46:55 I mean, I would feel really adding to service.

我的意思是，我会觉得真正增加了服务。

And I would feel like people would not get a unique understanding of my own thought process and my backstory if I was not able to sit here for literally hours, and to explain in deep detail how I think about the world.

我觉得，如果我不能坐在这里几个小时，并深入详细地解释我如何看待这个世界，人们就无法对我自己的思维过程和我的背景故事有独特的理解。

Not that anyone cares that much, but it’s just like all I can do is I hope it’s helpful.

并不是说有人那么在乎，但我所能做的就是希望它能有所帮助。

I want to help people think.

我想帮助人们思考。

2:47:18 Because when I was growing, I was grew up not far from here, 90 minutes from here, in College Station.

因为当我成长的时候，我是在离这里不远的大学站长大的，距离这里有90分钟的路程。

I felt very uniquely closed off from the world.

我感到非常独特，与世隔绝。

I found the world through books, and books saved my life so many different times.

我通过书籍发现了世界，书籍多次拯救了我的生命。

And I hope to encourage that in other people.

我希望能够鼓励其他人这样做。

I really…

我真的…

No matter where you are, no matter who you are, no matter how busy you are, if you have some time, to either sit down with a book or put on an audiobook, and you can transport yourself into a different world.

无论你身在何处，无论你是谁，无论你有多忙，只要你有时间，坐下来看一本书，或者听听有声读物，你就可以将自己带入一个不同的世界。

It’s so important.

这非常重要。

And that’s something that your show really helps me with, too.

这也是你的节目对我真正有帮助的地方。

I love listening to your show whenever.

我什么时候都喜欢听你的节目。

Sometimes when I’m too into politics and I need to listen to something, I’ll listen to that Mayan historian guy.

有时，当我太热衷于政治而需要听一些东西时，我会听那个玛雅历史学家的说法。

I love stuff like that, absolutely.

我绝对喜欢这样的东西。

I’ve been in a deep dive on Genghis Khan, reading Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World.

我深入研究了成吉思汗，阅读了《成吉思汗与现代世界的形成》。

Yeah.

是的。

2:48:04 Jack Weatherford.

杰克·韦瑟福德。

Fantastic.

极好的。

Yeah, he’s coming on.

是的，他来了。

Is he?

他是吗？

Yeah.

是的。

Amazing.

惊人的。

And again, shout out to Dan Carlin.

再次向丹·卡林大声喊叫。

The goat, the OG.

山羊，OG。

2:48:11 Dan, I’ve never met you before.

丹，我以前从未见过你。

I would love to correspond at some point.

我很乐意在某个时候进行通信。

I love you so much.

我真的很爱你。

You changed my life, man.

你改变了我的生活，伙计。

I met him once before, and it felt any else-

我以前见过他一次，感觉还有什么——

I was in your interview with him.

我在你对他的采访中。

I was starstruck.

我很追星。

2:48:22 Very, very starstruck.

非常非常追星。

And his…

还有他的……

I mean, there’s so much Painfotainment that I’ve listened to it many times.

我的意思是，Painfotainment 太多了，我已经听了很多遍了。

I think one of his best series that he gets no credit for, Ghosts of the Ostfront.

我认为他最好的系列之一是《东部前线的幽灵》，但他没有获得任何荣誉。

2:48:29 Nobody gives him credit for that one.

没有人相信他的这一点。

That’s OG.

那是奥格。

This is a 2011 series.

这是2011年的系列。

But his Ghosts of the Ostfront on the eastern front of the Nazi war against Russia fundamentally changed my view of warfare forever.

但他在纳粹对俄罗斯的东线战争中的《东线幽灵》从根本上永远改变了我对战争的看法。

And also at that time, I was very young.

而且那时候我还很年轻。

And to me, World War II was saving Private Ryan.

对我来说，第二次世界大战拯救了大兵瑞恩。

I wasn’t as well-read as I am.

我没有像现在这样博览群书。

2:48:53 Now, and I was like, “Oh shit.

现在，我想，“哦，糟糕。

This entire thing happened which actually decided the Second World War, and I don’t know anything about this.” So, shout out to Dan.

这整件事的发生实际上决定了第二次世界大战，而我对此一无所知。”所以，向丹大声喊叫。

God bless you, man.

上帝保佑你，伙计。

And his, quote-unquote, short episodes I think on slavery in general, Throughout Human History-

我认为他的那些关于奴隶制的短篇文章，纵观整个人类历史——

That was an awesome episode.

那是很棒的一集。

2:49:10 I actually bought a bunch of Hugh Thomas books because of that episode.

事实上，因为那一集，我买了一堆休·托马斯的书。

I’d never really read about African slavery or the slave trade outside of the Civil War context.

我从未真正读过内战背景之外的非洲奴隶制或奴隶贸易。

So again, shout out to him for that one.

所以，再次向他大声喊叫。

That was an amazing episode.

那是一个令人惊奇的插曲。

Hugh-

休-

His Japan series, too.

他的日本系列也是如此。

2:49:23 I’m going to Japan in a few days, and I keep thinking of what he always talked about in his Supernova in the East, ” The Japanese are like everyone else but only more so.” And the…

过几天我要去日本，我一直在想他在《东方超新星》中经常谈到的那句话：“日本人和其他人一样，但更是如此。”还有……

2:49:34 God, I love that quote.

天哪，我喜欢这句话。

Okay, he’s great.

好吧，他很棒。

2:49:35 And we ironically arrived at this tangent while talking about the 2020 election.

具有讽刺意味的是，我们在谈论 2020 年大选时却走到了这个切线。

Yeah.

是的。

2:49:45 That’s why podcasting is fun.

这就是播客很有趣的原因。

Because he said lost by a whisker.

因为他说，差点就输了。

2:49:47 And now, were dragging us, screaming back to the topic.

现在，我们被拖着，尖叫着回到主题。

One of the things I was bothered by is Trump claiming that there’s widespread, as you’re saying, low IQ theory, the widespread voter fraud.

我感到困扰的一件事是特朗普声称，正如你所说，低智商理论和广泛的选民欺诈现象普遍存在。

And I saw no evidence of that that he provided.

我没有看到他提供的任何证据。

2:50:11 And all right, let’s put that on the table.

好吧，让我们把它放在桌面上。

And then the other thing I was troubled by, that maybe you can comfort me in the context of history, how easily the base ate that up.

然后另一件事让我困扰，也许你可以在历史的背景下安慰我，基地是多么容易把它吃掉。

That they were able to believe the election was truly rigged based on no clear evidence that I saw.

他们能够相信选举确实是被操纵的，因为我没有看到任何明确的证据。

And they just love the story.

他们就是喜欢这个故事。

And there is something compelling to the story, like this DNC type.

这个故事有一些引人入胜的东西，比如民主党全国委员会的这种类型。

Like with Bernie, the establishment just state they’re corrupt and they steal the will of the people.

就像伯尼一样，当权者只是声称他们腐败，他们窃取了人民的意愿。

And the lack of desire from the base or from people to see any evidence of that, what’s really troubled me.

基层或人们不愿意看到任何证据，这才是真正困扰我的事情。