Top 8 questions about the “plague” situation

Well, “the plague” is trending on almost all social media channels now.

嗯，“瘟疫”现在几乎在所有社交媒体渠道上都是热门话题。

With a topic like this, I really struggle with how deeply to cover it.

对于这样的主题，我真的很纠结如何深入地讨论它。

When the hazard is low (i.e., the risk of the plague reaching the U.S. from Russia is essentially nil) but the outrage is high (lots of chatter and concern), what is the right call?

当危险很低（即瘟疫从俄罗斯传播到美国的风险基本上为零）但愤怒很高（大量闲聊和担忧）时，正确的做法是什么？

Almost no official information is coming out of Russia, creating enormous information voids and rumors/falsehoods.

俄罗斯几乎没有发布任何官方信息，造成巨大的信息空白和谣言/谎言。

So we decided to answer the top questions we are seeing circulate online (and, let’s be honest, the ones family and friends keep texting us).

因此，我们决定回答网上流传的热门问题（老实说，是家人和朋友不断给我们发短信的问题）。

This may help as you wade through the online storm.

当您度过在线风暴时，这可能会有所帮助。

Dr. Marisa Donnelly, epidemiologist, and Dr. Liz Marnik, immunologist, will take it away with the top eight questions.

流行病学家 Marisa Donnelly 博士和免疫学家 Liz Marnik 博士将提出最重要的八个问题。

A quick note: If you have no idea what I’m talking about, go to yesterday’s post about the situation in Russia .

快速说明：如果您不知道我在说什么，请转到昨天有关俄罗斯局势的帖子。

And then pick up from here.

然后从这里接。

Also, keep in mind the plague hasn’t been confirmed.

另外，请记住，鼠疫尚未得到证实。

What we know is that a scientist who worked in an anti-plague lab died of pneumonia of unknown cause.

我们所知道的是，一名在抗鼠疫实验室工作的科学家死于不明原因肺炎。

Epidemiologists and biosecurity experts are worried mainly because of the lack of transparency.

流行病学家和生物安全专家的担忧主要是因为缺乏透明度。

It is their job to worry.

担心是他们的工作。

This worry shouldn’t transfer to the general public right now, mainly because there is nothing for you to do and your risk is so low.

这种担忧现在不应该转移到公众身上，主要是因为你没有什么可做的，而且你的风险很低。

On a scale from 0 (not worried) to 10 (super worried), our worry that this will turn into something big is a 1.

从 0（不担心）到 10（超级担心），我们对这件事会变成大事的担心是 1。

This will change if there are more cases or we find out if the pathogen was altered in the lab.

如果有更多病例或者我们发现病原体是否在实验室发生了改变，这种情况将会改变。

The word plague probably brings up memories of your high school history class where you learned that ⅓ of Europe (about 25 million people ) died.

瘟疫这个词可能会让你想起高中历史课，你在课上了解到 ⅓ 的欧洲人（约 2500 万人）死亡。

You may picture the eerie beaked masks of plague doctors, though those actually came along centuries later, in the 1600s.

你可能会想象瘟疫医生戴着怪异的喙面具，尽管这些面具实际上是在几个世纪后，即 1600 年代出现的。

Scientists are still piecing together parts of the story, but back then plague spread in two ways: 1) through flea bites (fleas that fed on infected rats) and lice and 2) person to person through the air.

科学家们仍在拼凑故事的各个部分，但当时鼠疫通过两种方式传播：1）通过跳蚤叮咬（以受感染的老鼠为食的跳蚤）和虱子；2）通过空气在人与人之间传播。

The world is very different now.

现在的世界已经大不一样了。

We don’t have lice, fleas, and rodents everywhere in our living quarters anymore.

我们的生活区不再到处都是虱子、跳蚤和啮齿动物。

And our medical systems are better.

我们的医疗系统更好。

But plague is still around.

但瘟疫仍然存在。

It’s endemic in some places, like Madagascar, and sporadic in others, including the U.S. An estimated 1,000 to 2,000 people are infected worldwide each year.

它在马达加斯加等一些地方呈地方性流行，而在美国等其他地方呈散发性。估计全世界每年有 1,000 至 2,000 人被感染。

There are three forms of plague, but all are caused by the same bacterium: Yersinia pestis .

鼠疫有三种形式，但均由同一种细菌引起：鼠疫耶尔森氏菌。

The type of plague someone gets depends on how they become exposed (see figure below).

某人感染鼠疫的类型取决于他们接触鼠疫的方式（见下图）。

Symptoms also vary depending on the type.

症状也因类型而异。

If this lab worker died from the plague, it’s suspected she had pneumonic plague.

如果这名实验室工作人员死于鼠疫，则怀疑她患有肺鼠疫。

Yes, pneumonic plague is contagious, but not the most contagious thing on earth.

是的，肺鼠疫具有传染性，但不是地球上传染性最强的疾病。

It requires close or direct contact, like caring for someone who is sick.

它需要密切或直接的接触，例如照顾病人。

It doesn’t spread through casual contact, like from just being in the same room as someone.

它不会通过偶然接触传播，例如仅仅与某人在同一个房间。

On average, one person with pneumonic plague may infect one to three additional people .

平均而言，一名肺鼠疫患者可能会传染另外一到三人。

The public health response after a pneumonic plague case is detected is pretty straightforward:

发现肺鼠疫病例后的公共卫生反应非常简单：

Depending on the extent of exposure and the suspected type of plague, public health may choose to give all exposed contacts post-exposure prophylaxis antibiotics, just in case.

根据接触程度和疑似鼠疫类型，公共卫生部门可能会选择为所有接触者提供接触后预防性抗生素，以防万一。

This approach works really well in stopping plague outbreaks in its tracks.

这种方法对于阻止鼠疫爆发非常有效。

Yes!

是的！

All three forms of plague are treatable with antibiotics, and recovery rates are high, but treatment must start quickly after exposure because the infection progresses rapidly.

所有三种形式的鼠疫都可以用抗生素治疗，并且康复率很高，但治疗必须在接触后迅速开始，因为感染进展迅速。

Untreated plague can be very dangerous, and pneumonic plague in particular can progress very quickly.

未经治疗的鼠疫可能非常危险，尤其是肺鼠疫的进展速度非常快。

As soon as a clinician suspects a possible plague infection, they will usually prescribe antibiotics rather than wait for laboratory tests to come back.

一旦临床医生怀疑可能感染鼠疫，他们通常会开出抗生素，而不是等待实验室检查结果。

Not in the U.S. There used to be a vaccine available for military personnel and people at high risk (like those who work with animals or in labs with plague), but production was discontinued in 1999 because of serious side effects and because it was not effective at preventing infection.

美国没有。过去有一种疫苗可供军事人员和高危人群（例如从事动物工作或在鼠疫实验室工作的人员）使用，但由于严重的副作用且不能有效预防感染，该疫苗于 1999 年停止生产。

Yes.

是的。

In the book, a Russian lab released a genetically modified form of plague that progresses to a pandemic.

在书中，俄罗斯一家实验室释放了一种转基因鼠疫，该鼠疫已发展为大流行。

The book is marketed as “nonfiction” because it’s based on scientifically relevant work and the history of biosecurity, but the outbreak is fictional.

这本书被宣传为“非小说类”，因为它基于科学相关的工作和生物安全的历史，但这次疫情的爆发是虚构的。

It’s never happened before.

这以前从未发生过。

CDC and defense agencies have considered the bacterium that causes plague, Yersinia pestis , a potential bioweapon.

疾病预防控制中心和国防机构已将引起鼠疫的细菌——鼠疫耶尔森氏菌——视为一种潜在的生物武器。

The CDC has written guides for how to respond to a potential plague bioterror event .

疾病预防控制中心已经编写了如何应对潜在的鼠疫生物恐怖事件的指南。

Scientists have also considered the possibility that a bad actor may engineer plague to be antibiotic-resistant and use that as a weapon.

科学家们还考虑了一种可能性，即不良行为者可能会设计瘟疫以使其具有抗生素抗性，并将其用作武器。

But CDC’s guidance accounts for this potential and recommends two different classes of antibiotics to treat plague if there is reason to suspect engineered resistance.

但疾病预防控制中心的指南考虑到了这种潜力，并建议在有理由怀疑工程耐药性的情况下使用两种不同类别的抗生素来治疗鼠疫。

Importantly, there is no evidence so far that the death in Russia is due to a bioweapon or genetically modified form of plague.

重要的是，迄今为止没有证据表明俄罗斯的死亡是由生物武器或转基因形式的鼠疫造成的。

For many reasons, plague outbreaks these days stay very small (see the previous YLE post on this).

由于多种原因，如今鼠疫爆发的规模仍然很小（请参阅之前的 YLE 帖子）。

We do have antibiotics in the national stockpile, although it is considered underfunded (like many public health systems) and could always use more support.

我们的国家储备中确实有抗生素，尽管它被认为资金不足（像许多公共卫生系统一样）并且总是需要更多支持。

Also, keep in mind there are multiple antibiotic options for treatment, not just one.

另外，请记住，有多种抗生素可供选择，而不仅仅是一种。

Demanding transparency (and accountability) from Russia is important right now.

要求俄罗斯保持透明度（和问责制）现在很重要。

Also, when you see friends and family talking about the plague right now, you can remind them why investing in science and public health matters.

此外，当您现在看到朋友和家人谈论瘟疫时，您可以提醒他们为什么投资科学和公共卫生很重要。

It helps keep us safe every day; we just often don’t see it.

它有助于保证我们每天的安全；我们只是经常看不到它。

This includes investing in infection-monitoring systems and in research on new prevention and treatments.

这包括投资感染监测系统以及新的预防和治疗方法的研究。

If this woman died from the plague, the risk of a pandemic is very, very small.

如果这位妇女死于鼠疫，那么发生大流行的风险非常非常小。

We will be back with more if that should change.

如果这种情况发生改变，我们将会带来更多。

But let this be a reminder, once again, that we need strong public health systems in the U.S. and across the world.

但这再次提醒我们，美国和世界各地都需要强大的公共卫生系统。

Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) is a team of experts, from physicians to immunologists to epidemiologists to nutritionists, working together with one goal: to “translate” ever-evolving public health science so people are well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions.

您的当地流行病学家 (YLE) 是一个由医生、免疫学家、流行病学家和营养学家组成的专家团队，他们共同努力实现一个目标：“转化”不断发展的公共卫生科学，以便人们有能力做出基于证据的决策。

The YLE suite of newsletters reaches over 475,000 people across more than 132 countries.

YLE 新闻通讯套件覆盖超过 132 个国家/地区的 475,000 多人。

This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members.

感谢 YLE 社区成员的慷慨支持，本通讯免费向所有人开放。

To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below:

为了支持这项工作，请订阅或升级如下：

Thanks for the calm, rational explainer.

感谢楼主冷静、理性的解释。

It will help.

会有帮助的。

We should also keep in mind that there is a non-zero possibility that the flurry of publicity around this right now is related to Trump attempts to create pretexts for election interference.

我们还应该记住，目前围绕此事的一系列宣传与特朗普试图为干预选举创造借口有关的可能性不为零。

Whenever anyone in the administration suddenly shows interest in public health, there's GOT to be some hidden agenda.

每当政府中有人突然对公共卫生表现出兴趣时，一定有一些隐藏的议程。

“when you see friends and family talking about the plague right now, you can remind them why investing in science and public health matters.

“当你现在看到朋友和家人谈论瘟疫时，你可以提醒他们为什么投资科学和公共卫生很重要。

It helps keep us safe every day; we just often don't see it.

它有助于保证我们每天的安全；我们只是经常看不到它。

This includes investing in infection-monitoring systems and in research on new prevention and treatments.”

这包括投资感染监测系统以及新的预防和治疗方法的研究。”

https://bsky.app/profile/kenaiseasky.bsky.social/post/3mxbs4ojvz22l

https://bsky.app/profile/kenaiseasky.bsky.social/post/3mxbs4ojvz22l