Respiratory increasing, while Covid-19 peaking? Also, the air after 9/11 killed more than the actual attack

I’ll be honest: everything feels small next to the massive conversation that has unfolded in the past week about AI potentially wiping out humanity.

老实说：与过去一周展开的有关人工智能可能消灭人类的大规模对话相比，一切都显得微不足道。

It’s terrifying on so many levels.

它在很多层面上都很可怕。

(I’ll be back soon with a deep dive into where public health and AI intersect.)

（我很快就会回来，深入探讨公共卫生和人工智能的交叉点。）

But I wrote this post anyway.

但我还是写了这篇文章。

And I did it not because these topics are the most urgent to all of humanity, but because they’re actionable and predictable in a moment that feels increasingly unpredictable.

我这样做并不是因为这些主题对全人类来说是最紧迫的，而是因为它们在感觉越来越难以预测的时刻是可行的和可预测的。

I hope it helps you feel a little more in control, at least of your health and the health of those around you.

我希望它能帮助您感觉更有掌控力，至少对您和周围人的健康有掌控力。

There are things we can do, even if they feel small.

有些事情我们可以做，即使它们感觉很小。

Quick reminder: I hope to see you this afternoon for a webinar on fall vaccines!

快速提醒：我希望今天下午能在有关秋季疫苗的网络研讨会上见到您！

If you’re around at 2pm PST and a paid subscriber, come join us!

如果您在太平洋标准时间下午 2 点左右并且是付费订阅者，请加入我们！

Register below.

请在下面注册。

This post has bonus content for paid subscribers.

这篇文章为付费订阅者提供了奖励内容。

Upgrade to get full access.

升级以获得完全访问权限。

Correction : In the last issue of The Dose , I wrote a spotlight on a Covid-19 monoclonal antibody for immunocompromised patients.

更正：在上一期《The Dose》中，我重点关注了针对免疫功能低下患者的 Covid-19 单克隆抗体。

But I made a mistake and want to correct it: The dosing frequency is once every 90 days.

但我犯了一个错误，想纠正一下：给药频率是每90天一次。

If you or your child is feeling crappy, you aren’t alone.

如果您或您的孩子感觉很糟糕，那么您并不孤单。

Bugs are starting to take hold because of weather changes and social factors.

由于天气变化和社会因素，虫子开始流行。

(Hello, schools!)

（各位学校，大家好！）

One way to track respiratory illnesses is by monitoring “ influenza-like illness ” (ILI).

追踪呼吸道疾病的一种方法是监测“流感样疾病”(ILI)。

Each week, clinicians report the number of patients they have seen with symptoms such as fever, cough, or sore throat.

每周，临床医生都会报告他们见过的出现发烧、咳嗽或喉咙痛等症状的患者数量。

The resulting data gives communities a snapshot of how much illness is spreading.

由此产生的数据让社区能够了解疾病传播的程度。

I’ll be keeping a close eye on this throughout the next few months.

在接下来的几个月里，我将密切关注此事。

Right now, ILI is ticking up, but it’s still well below the epidemic threshold that marks the start of “respiratory season,” which typically hits in October.

目前，流感样疾病正在上升，但仍远低于标志着“呼吸道季节”开始的流行阈值，“呼吸道季节”通常在十月到来。

If we look at what tests clinicians are ordering and what’s turning up positive, there are two main classes of viruses driving sickness right now:

如果我们看看临床医生要求进行哪些测试以及哪些结果呈阳性，就会发现目前有两类主要的病毒会导致疾病：

It’s rising at a much higher rate than anything else.

它的增长速度比其他任何东西都快得多。

(See graph below.) That’s typical for this time of year as kids head back to school and our little petri dishes start mixing again.

（见下图。）这是一年中这个时候的典型现象，孩子们回到学校，我们的小培养皿又开始混合。

You will also notice in the graph above that Covid-19 is the second-highest respiratory virus.

您还会在上图中注意到，Covid-19 是第二大呼吸道病毒。

We are clearly in a wave, but there are early signs it’s starting to peak.

我们显然正处于浪潮中，但有早期迹象表明它已开始达到顶峰。

For example, wastewater levels in three regions (the South, Midwest, and Northeast) all appear to be now turning downward.

例如，三个地区（南部、中西部和东北部）的废水排放量现在似乎都在下降。

What’s really interesting is that the West is not peaking, yet it was the first to start increasing.

真正有趣的是，西方并未达到顶峰，但却是最先开始增长的。

This highlights an interesting regional pattern we have seen emerge over the past few years:

这凸显了我们在过去几年中看到的一个有趣的区域模式：

The West , like California and Hawaii, has bigger waves in summer than in winter.

西部地区，如加利福尼亚和夏威夷，夏季的海浪比冬季更大。

This also happens in other coastal countries, like Australia and New Zealand.

这种情况也发生在其他沿海国家，例如澳大利亚和新西兰。

Northeast states have by far bigger waves in winter than in summer.

东北各州冬季的波浪比夏季大得多。

It’s not clear why.

目前尚不清楚原因。

Typically, respiratory viruses peak in winter due to humidity, weather, and human behavior.

通常，由于湿度、天气和人类行为，呼吸道病毒在冬季达到高峰。

Clearly, something else is happening with Covid-19.

显然，Covid-19 还发生了其他事情。

It's still a new virus, so it may still be finding its footing.

它仍然是一种新病毒，因此可能仍在寻找立足点。

What this means for you: Updated Covid-19 vaccines are now licensed by the FDA and should be available—if not now, then very soon.

这对您意味着什么：更新的 Covid-19 疫苗现已获得 FDA 许可，并且应该可以上市——即使不是现在，也会很快上市。

Here is the YLE guide to fall vaccines and, most importantly, the ideal timing for each.

这是 YLE 秋季疫苗指南，最重要的是，每种疫苗的理想接种时间。

Measles usually peaks in winter and early spring, so it’s odd to be having a surge in summer, but here we are.

麻疹通常在冬季和早春达到高峰，因此在夏季激增很奇怪，但我们就在这里。

Nationally, the U.S. is now at ~3,300 confirmed cases in 2026, already well above the total for all of 2025.

从全国范围来看，2026 年美国确诊病例数约为 3,300 例，已远高于 2025 年全年的总数。

The reassuring part: measles really only spreads in tightly knit, unvaccinated pockets.

令人放心的是：麻疹实际上只在紧密相连、未接种疫苗的口袋里传播。

So it’s not all over, but rather in three active outbreaks:

所以事情还没有结束，而是发生了三起活跃的疫情：

Pennsylvania is racking up cases fast, with 676 total as of about mid-September and over 100 new cases in a single week.

宾夕法尼亚州的病例数量正在迅速增加，截至 9 月中旬左右，病例总数为 676 例，单周新增病例超过 100 例。

The third measles-associated death also occurred in this state this year: a 40-year-old unvaccinated woman in Jefferson County.

今年该州也发生了第三例与麻疹相关的死亡：杰斐逊县一名未接种疫苗的 40 岁女性。

This followed two deaths associated with measles in Lancaster County in late August.

八月下旬，兰开斯特县发生了两例与麻疹相关的死亡事件。

CDC has yet to update its website on deaths, which is just atrocious.

疾病预防控制中心尚未更新其网站上的死亡人数，这实在是太残酷了。

(ICYMI: see my recent post on measles deaths .)

（ICYMI：请参阅我最近关于麻疹死亡的帖子。）

What this means for you: If you’re fully vaccinated, you’re very well protected.

这对您意味着什么：如果您完全接种了疫苗，您就会受到很好的保护。

Infants in and around outbreak areas can receive the vaccine as young as 6 months.

疫情爆发地区及其周边地区的婴儿最小 6 个月就可以接种疫苗。

Talk to your doctor.

和你的医生谈谈。

Marya packed up her violin, took the subway, and set up in the shadow of a crane at Ground Zero to play music.

玛丽亚收拾好小提琴，乘坐地铁，在归零地起重机的阴影下演奏音乐。

She was part of Music Givers, a group of volunteer musicians who performed for exhausted first responders months after September 11, 2001.

她是 Music Givers 的一员，这是一群志愿者音乐家，他们在 2001 年 9 月 11 日后几个月为疲惫不堪的急救人员表演。

What she didn’t know was that breathing in that air, day in and day out, was slowly penetrating her lungs.

她不知道的是，日复一日地呼吸着这样的空气，正在慢慢地渗透到她的肺部。

She was eventually diagnosed with lung cancer.

她最终被诊断出患有肺癌。

She died in October 2019.

她于 2019 年 10 月去世。

If you’re like me, you’ve been completely engaged with 9/11 documentaries, stories, and conversations this past week.

如果您像我一样，过去一周您已经完全沉浸在 9/11 纪录片、故事和对话中。

The horrific event shaped our lives, culture, and international relations—and for more than 400,000 people, it affected health.

这场可怕的事件影响了我们的生活、文化和国际关系，并且影响了超过 40 万人的健康。

Unfortunately, we didn’t learn it from the officials on the ground at the time.

不幸的是，我们没有从当时当地的官员那里了解到这一点。

That’s clear from the over 170,000 pages of internal 9/11 air-quality records, which show that officials knew the air was dangerous.

从超过 170,000 页的 9/11 内部空气质量记录中可以清楚地看出这一点，这些记录表明官员们知道空气是危险的。

Thankfully, a little-known public health program was put together: the federal World Trade Center Health Program.

值得庆幸的是，一个鲜为人知的公共卫生计划被整合在一起：联邦世贸中心健康计划。

The WTC Health Program provides health monitoring and treatment for people impacted by 9/11, and had enrolled 104,223 members by 2020.

WTC 健康计划为受 9/11 影响的人们提供健康监测和治疗，到 2020 年已招募了 104,223 名会员。

This breaks down to 76,543 responders (people involved in rescue, response, recovery, cleanup, and related support activities after the attacks) and 27,680 survivors (people present in the dust or dust cloud on 9/11 or who worked, lived, or attended school, child care centers, or adult day care centers in the NYC disaster areas).

其中包括 76,543 名响应者（袭击后参与救援、响应、恢复、清理和相关支持活动的人员）和 27,680 名幸存者（9/11 事件中出现在尘埃或尘云中的人员，或者在纽约市灾区工作、生活或上学、儿童保育中心或成人日托中心的人员）。

When a member receives certification from the WTC Health Program, it means the program has officially determined that the member’s condition is likely connected to 9/11 exposure.

当会员收到 WTC 健康计划的认证时，这意味着该计划已正式确定该会员的病情可能与 9/11 事件有关。

Once a condition is certified, the member can then get program health benefits.

一旦病情得到认证，会员即可获得计划健康福利。

It doesn’t mean 9/11 exposure was the only cause of that person’s illness, just that it was likely a significant factor.

这并不意味着 9/11 事件是该人患病的唯一原因，只是它可能是一个重要因素。

Over time, this program has also funded more than 300 peer-reviewed publications on post-9/11 health effects.

随着时间的推移，该计划还资助了 300 多本有关 9/11 事件后健康影响的同行评审出版物。

In the last batch of data from the program (2012-2020), CDC found :

在该计划的最后一批数据（2012-2020）中，CDC发现：

About 1 in 2 people had a health condition certified by the WTC program, and the rate increased over time.

大约二分之一的人有 WTC 计划认证的健康状况，并且这一比例随着时间的推移而增加。

On average, certified members held about 2.7 condition certifications each.

平均而言，每名认证会员持有约 2.7 个状况认证。

1 in 8 had a cancer certification.

八分之一的人拥有癌症认证。

The most common cancers were skin, male genital, breast, and digestive system cancers.

最常见的癌症是皮肤癌、男性生殖器癌、乳腺癌和消化系统癌。

1 in 5 had a noncancer certification, like reflux disorder, obstructive airway disease, and PTSD.

五分之一的人有非癌症证明，如反流病、阻塞性气道疾病和创伤后应激障碍 (PTSD)。

What this means for you: When there is a disaster, it’s important to take long-term effects as seriously as the initial event.

这对您意味着什么：发生灾难时，像对待初始事件一样认真对待长期影响非常重要。

For 9/11, specifically, many, many people don’t know they’re eligible for the WTC Health Program.

特别是在 9/11 事件中，很多很多人不知道他们有资格参加 WTC 健康计划。

Eligibility includes:

资格包括：

Medical societies close the vaccine guidance gap left by federal dysfunction.

医学会缩小了联邦功能失调留下的疫苗指导空白。

With ACIP sidelined in legal limbo, the Vaccine Integrity Project and the AMA ran an independent evidence review of 69 flu, 155 Covid, and 75 RSV studies, publishing the findings in JAMA and finding no new safety concerns.

由于 ACIP 陷入法律困境，疫苗完整性项目和 AMA 对 69 项流感、155 项新冠病毒和 75 项呼吸道合胞病毒研究进行了独立证据审查，并在《美国医学会杂志》上发表了研究结果，没有发现新的安全问题。

Four major societies (AAFP, AAP, ACOG, IDSA) then released aligned fall guidance on a coordinated schedule, all posted together on a new AMA site, SpreadTheFacts.org .

随后，四个主要协会（AAFP、AAP、ACOG、IDSA）按照协调的时间表发布了一致的秋季指南，所有这些指南都一起发布在新的 AMA 网站 SpreadTheFacts.org 上。

Getting that many medical organizations to move in lockstep is incredibly hard, so the coordination itself is noteworthy.

让这么多医疗组织步调一致非常困难，因此协调本身就值得注意。

It’s one clear message instead of fractured signals, right when federal guidance has been anything but clear.

这是一个明确的信息，而不是支离破碎的信号，而此时联邦指导意见却一点也不明确。

A pig kidney bought a man nine months of life without dialysis.

一个猪肾让一个人在没有透析的情况下可以活九个月。

He then received a human donor kidney, which took hold immediately and has functioned well since, with no sign that the pig kidney made the second transplant any harder.

然后，他接受了人类捐赠的肾脏，该肾脏立即生效并且功能良好，没有迹象表明猪肾使第二次移植变得更加困难。

It’s the clearest proof that pig organs could serve as a “bridge” for patients stuck waiting years for a human kidney, at a time when demand for organs badly outstrips supply.

这是最明确的证据，表明在器官供不应求的情况下，猪器官可以为那些等待数年人类肾脏的患者充当“桥梁”。

A lot of things feel out of control lately, but there are things we can do as individuals to improve our health and help things feel less heavy.

最近很多事情都让人感觉失控，但作为个人我们可以做一些事情来改善我们的健康并帮助减轻事情的沉重感。

I hope this helps.

我希望这有帮助。

Will be back with more soon!

很快就会回来更多！

Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) comprises a team of experts, ranging from physicians to immunologists to epidemiologists to nutritionists, working together with one goal: to “translate” ever-evolving public health science so that people are well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions.

您的当地流行病学家 (YLE) 由一个专家团队组成，其中包括医生、免疫学家、流行病学家和营养学家，他们共同努力实现一个目标：“转化”不断发展的公共卫生科学，以便人们有能力做出基于证据的决策。

The YLE suite of newsletters reaches over 475,000 people across more than 132 countries.

YLE 新闻通讯套件覆盖超过 132 个国家/地区的 475,000 多人。

This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members.

感谢 YLE 社区成员的慷慨支持，本通讯免费向所有人开放。

To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below:

为了支持这项工作，请订阅或升级如下：

Timnit Gebru, the woman Google fired back in 2020 for writing an insufficiently optimistic paper about the risks of AI (not the "superintelligence" ones, but the verifiable ones like climate change, bias, and misinformation), has been an incredibly helpful person to be following through all of this AI stuff.

蒂姆尼特·格布鲁 (Timnit Gebru) 是谷歌在 2020 年因撰写一篇关于人工智能风险（不是“超级智能”风险，而是气候变化、偏见和错误信息等可验证风险）不够乐观的论文而被谷歌解雇的女性，她在跟踪所有这些人工智能内容方面一直是一个非常有帮助的人。

Lowered my blood pressure quite a bit.

我的血压降低了很多。

Her take, in a nutshell, as someone who has been studying AI for many years, is that the risk of these agents going out of control in the way people are talking about is basically zero.

简而言之，作为研究人工智能多年的人，她的看法是，这些智能体按照人们谈论的方式失控的风险基本上为零。

That the incidents they have reported recently are a result of their own incompetence (i.e. create an agent designed for hacking and give it extremely flimsy safeguards and then when the obvious outcome is it hacks something, blame it on the product "going rogue" instead of "doing what it was designed to do and getting around safeguards that were so useless they would get us laughed out of the room by any experienced security expert").

他们最近报告的事件是由于他们自己的无能造成的（即创建一个专为黑客攻击而设计的代理并为其提供极其脆弱的保护措施，然后当明显的结果是它攻击了某些东西时，将其归咎于产品“变得流氓”，而不是“按照其设计的目的并绕过无用的保护措施，这些保护措施非常无用，以至于我们会被任何有经验的安全专家嘲笑出房间”）。

She believes all the doomsaying is an attempt at regulatory capture (and it looks like it may also be for creating legal exceptions to antitrust laws that the AI companies would normally be subject to).

她认为所有的末日预言都是为了监管捕获（看起来这也可能是为了为人工智能公司通常要遵守的反垄断法创造法律例外）。

Here's her Bluesky feed: https://blacksky.community/profile/timnitgebru.blacksky.app

这是她的 Bluesky 供稿：https://blacksky.community/profile/timnitgebru.blacksky.app

Also a great thread on how unrealistic the "AI could make a custom virus that kills us all" claims are by another expert: https://x.com/DavidRBellamy/status/2099187370407112758

另一位专家也提出了一个关于“人工智能可以制造一种杀死我们所有人的自定义病毒”的说法是多么不切实际的好帖子：https://x.com/DavidRBellamy/status/2099187370407112758

And some thoughts by a security expert: https://x.com/Laughing_Mantis/status/2099083438250717502

安全专家的一些想法：https://x.com/Laughing_Mantis/status/2099083438250717502

Regarding the curious higher summer wave/lower winter wave of Covid in the West, it's never been curious to anyone living in a place like Phoenix.

对于西方国家奇怪的夏季高波/冬季低波新冠病毒，居住在凤凰城这样的地方的人从来都不好奇。

Our extreme weather is in the summer, where we huddle indoors in the air conditioning as much as possible.

我们的极端天气是在夏天，我们尽可能地挤在有空调的室内。

Come November, we enjoy outdoor Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings.

十一月到来，我们享受户外感恩节和圣诞节聚会。

Perhaps "West" isn't the best way to look at half of the country?

也许“西部”并不是观察半个国家的最佳方式？

In the West, once you leave the coast, elevation is a better predictor than state lines of temperature/air conditioning use and people gathering indoors.

在西方，一旦离开海岸，海拔比国家规定的温度/空调使用情况和室内聚集的人数更能预测。