Plague in Russia? Plus flu, common cold, a new opioid, and good news
The plague in Russia?
俄罗斯瘟疫？
Wouldn’t be so scary if there wasn’t a new book about this exact scenario.
如果没有一本关于这个具体场景的新书，就不会那么可怕了。
And that it’s in Russia (our political adversary, which is currently at war with NATO).
而且是在俄罗斯（我们的政治对手，目前正在与北约交战）。
And that we just survived a pandemic.
我们刚刚度过了一场大流行。
There’s been enough chatter about this that we tackle it head-on.
关于这个问题的讨论已经够多了，所以我们要正面解决这个问题。
Also, sick season is definitely here early: flu is increasing, and the common cold is surging.
此外，疾病季节肯定提前到来：流感正在增加，普通感冒正在激增。
And another synthetic opioid may be spreading in our drug supplies.
另一种合成阿片类药物可能正在我们的药物供应中传播。
Here’s what’s going on in the world of health and, most importantly, what it means for you.
以下是健康领域正在发生的事情，最重要的是，它对您意味着什么。
Flu is still low nationally but is increasing in almost every state (purple on the map below).
流感在全国范围内仍然较低，但几乎每个州都在增加（下图紫色）。
This is true for many metrics, including test positivity rate, emergency department visits, and even (if you squint closely) hospitalizations, which are ticking up.
对于许多指标来说都是如此，包括测试阳性率、急诊就诊率，甚至（如果你仔细观察的话）住院率都在上升。
It’s so weird how early this flu season is, but as I said last week, flu is doing what it does best: being unpredictable.
这个流感季节来得这么早真是太奇怪了，但正如我上周所说，流感正在发挥它最擅长的作用：不可预测。
The strain that is driving this flu wave right now is H1N1pdm09.
目前推动这波流感的病毒是 H1N1pdm09。
H1N1 is in the flu vaccine, which is great news!
H1N1 流感疫苗已包含在其中，这是个好消息！
But the circulating strain has a mutation that has drifted slightly from the vaccine.
但流行毒株有一个与疫苗略有不同的突变。
Early lab data suggest the mutation is most often found among teens and young adults, people whose first flu exposure was the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain.
早期实验室数据表明，这种突变最常见于青少年和年轻人，这些人首次接触过 2009 年 H1N1 流感大流行毒株。
This means the vaccine may not be as effective in young people.
这意味着疫苗对年轻人可能不那么有效。
BUT the flu vaccine is still very important.
但流感疫苗仍然非常重要。
In that same study, the vaccine boosted antibodies against every current strain, including the mutated ones.
在同一项研究中，疫苗增强了针对当前每种病毒株的抗体，包括突变的病毒株。
Every year, multiple flu strains circulate, and the vaccine will likely protect kiddos from other strains!
Every year, multiple flu strains circulate, and the vaccine will likely protect kiddos from other strains!
What this means for you: It’s time to get your flu vaccine for optimal protection.
这对您意味着什么：是时候接种流感疫苗以获得最佳保护了。
Most other viruses are still at bay or decreasing (like Covid-19), with one exception: the common cold.
大多数其他病毒仍处于困境或正在减少（如 Covid-19），但有一个例外：普通感冒。
It’s surging right now (gray line below), with 32% of physician tests coming back positive for rhinovirus/enterovirus, the main viruses behind colds.
目前该数字正在飙升（下面的灰线），32% 的医生检测结果显示鼻病毒/肠道病毒呈阳性，鼻病毒/肠道病毒是感冒背后的主要病毒。
This is higher than any rate since 2019 (last season on record on the CDC website).
这比 2019 年（CDC 网站上记录的上一季）以来的任何比率都要高。
A fall rise is expected, but this one is big.
预计会出现下跌，但这一次幅度很大。
What this means for you: If you’re sick right now, it’s most likely the common cold or may be the flu.
这对您意味着什么：如果您现在生病了，很可能是普通感冒或流感。
This means a lot of runny noses, sore throats, and feeling crummy.
这意味着经常流鼻涕、喉咙痛和感觉糟糕。
Unfortunately, there's not much you can do for a cold, other than sleep, lots of water, and staying home while you’re sick.
不幸的是，对于感冒，除了睡觉、多喝水和生病时待在家里之外，你无能为力。
Cychlorphine is an ultra-potent synthetic opioid that’s getting a lot of attention after several high-profile cases.
环氯芬是一种超强效的合成阿片类药物，在发生几起备受瞩目的案件后引起了广泛关注。
According to the Center for Forensic Science Research & Education ( CSFRE ), test tube data estimates it to be up to 10 times stronger than fentanyl.
据法医学研究与教育中心 (CSFRE) 称，试管数据估计它的强度比芬太尼强 10 倍。
It belongs to a different chemical family called orphines.
它属于一个不同的化学家族，称为孤儿碱。
At least 24 states have now identified cyclorphine-related overdoses or deaths.
目前至少有 24 个州已发现与环吗啡相关的过量服用或死亡事件。
One Tennessee county alone has reported 50 deaths .
仅田纳西州一个县就报告了 50 人死亡。
We don’t know how widespread it really is in the drug supply.
我们不知道它在毒品供应中到底有多普遍。
That’s partly because our surveillance system for substance use is fragmented and lagged.
That’s partly because our surveillance system for substance use is fragmented and lagged.
Toxicology reports take weeks, and it often takes months for the data to show up in official reports.
Toxicology reports take weeks, and it often takes months for the data to show up in official reports.
And it doesn’t really happen unless someone dies.
除非有人死，否则这不会真正发生。
Fentanyl test strips don’t detect cychlorphine.
Fentanyl test strips don’t detect cychlorphine.
What this means for you: Opioid deaths are still a big deal in the U.S. Narcan still works.
这对您意味着什么：阿片类药物死亡在美国仍然是一个大问题。纳洛酮仍然有效。
Call 911 and give a dose if you see an overdose.
如果您发现服药过量，请致电 911 并服药。
If there’s no response after two to three minutes, give another, and keep going, since cychlorphine may take several.
如果两到三分钟后没有反应，再给予一次，然后继续，因为环氯芬可能需要几次。
Last week, the Moscow Times (a non-state-controlled news organization) reported that a 28-year-old civilian anti-plague lab worker in Siberia died on October 1 after being exposed to the plague.
上周，《莫斯科时报》（一家非国家控制的新闻机构）报道称，西伯利亚一名 28 岁的平民抗鼠疫实验室工作人员于 10 月 1 日感染鼠疫后死亡。
Nearly 200 of her contacts are quarantined.
她的近 200 名接触者已被隔离。
Beyond that, the story gets very murky.
除此之外，故事变得非常模糊。
Independent verification is not readily available in Russia, and there are all sorts of conflicts of interest here.
俄罗斯不容易进行独立核查，而且这里存在各种利益冲突。
Plague?
瘟疫？
Like the Black Death?
就像黑死病一样？
Kind of.
有点儿。
Plague is a rare but serious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis , the same bacterium behind the Black Death in the 1300s.
鼠疫是一种罕见但严重的疾病，由鼠疫耶尔森氏菌引起，这种细菌也是 1300 年代黑死病的幕后黑手。
It lives in wild rodents and their fleas .
它生活在野生啮齿动物及其跳蚤中。
Thankfully, it's much less of a problem today because of improved hygiene and living conditions.
值得庆幸的是，由于卫生和生活条件的改善，现在这个问题已经不那么严重了。
There are three forms: bubonic (the most common, which causes painful swollen lymph nodes), septicemic (in the bloodstream), and pneumonic (in the lungs).
有三种形式：腺鼠疫（最常见，导致淋巴结肿大疼痛）、败血症（在血液中）和肺炎（在肺部）。
Pneumonic plague is the most dangerous and the only form that spreads person to person.
肺鼠疫是最危险的，也是唯一在人与人之间传播的形式。
If early accounts are correct, this story is about the pneumonic plague.
如果早期的记载是正确的，这个故事是关于肺鼠疫的。
It’s concerning, as any lab accident/leak is, but the risk of this becoming a Covid-19 pandemic is very, very low for a few reasons:
正如任何实验室事故/泄漏一样，这令人担忧，但由于以下几个原因，这种情况成为 Covid-19 大流行的风险非常非常低：
Pneumonic plague is not traditionally efficient at spreading.
肺鼠疫传统上传播效率不高。
While it does spread person to person through respiratory droplets, in previous outbreaks, one infected person typically infected one to three other people.
虽然它确实通过呼吸道飞沫在人与人之间传播，但在之前的疫情中，一名感染者通常会感染一到三人。
Transmission occurs in close, sustained, face-to-face contact (like household caregiving, crowded sleeping quarters, or unprotected clinical workers).
传播发生在密切、持续、面对面的接触中（例如家庭护理、拥挤的睡眠区或未受保护的临床工作人员）。
This isn’t like measles, which can linger in the air for hours and hours.
这不像麻疹，麻疹可以在空气中徘徊数小时。
We have antibiotics.
我们有抗生素。
They work really well.
他们工作得很好。
In fact, a few cases of pneumonic plague pop up randomly in the U.S. The last case was in July 2025 in Arizona after a man was exposed to sick cats.
事实上，美国随机出现了几例肺鼠疫病例。最后一例是 2025 年 7 月在亚利桑那州发生的，当时一名男子接触了病猫。
Forty-six of his contacts received antibiotic prophylaxis, and none became sick.
他的 46 名接触者接受了抗生素预防，没有人生病。
Outbreaks with person-to-person spread still happen in places where plague is endemic, like Madagascar.
Outbreaks with person-to-person spread still happen in places where plague is endemic, like Madagascar.
In 2021 in Madagascar, for example, 22 cases were confirmed, and eight people died.
In 2021 in Madagascar, for example, 22 cases were confirmed, and eight people died.
But antibiotics stopped the outbreak.
但抗生素阻止了疫情的爆发。
The response seems very rapid.
反应似乎非常快。
Nearly 200 of the deceased Russian woman’s contacts were in quarantine and under close medical monitoring.
已故俄罗斯妇女的近 200 名接触者已被隔离并接受密切医疗监测。
Some reports say five hospitals are also under quarantine.
Some reports say five hospitals are also under quarantine.
This didn’t happen in a crowded megacity.
这并没有发生在拥挤的大城市。
The institute is in a small town, not Moscow, which means less contact between people and less potential for spread.
该研究所位于一个小镇，而不是莫斯科，这意味着人与人之间的接触较少，传播的可能性也较小。
Two things would raise concern, and many biosecurity analysts and epidemiologists will be trying to wade through the noise (and political chatter) to ensure these aren’t happening:
有两件事会引起人们的关注，许多生物安全分析师和流行病学家将试图消除噪音（和政治闲谈），以确保这些事情不会发生：
More cases.
更多案例。
There isn’t reported spread yet.
目前还没有传播的报道。
The good news is that the pneumonic plague has a short incubation period (usually one to four days), which means that if it does spread, it will happen this week.
好消息是，肺鼠疫的潜伏期很短（通常为一到四天），这意味着如果它确实传播，也会在本周发生。
We don’t have to wait weeks and weeks as we did with hantavirus, for example.
例如，我们不必像对待汉坦病毒那样等待数周。
We probably can’t rely on the country reporting it, though, so epidemiologists will be watching other metrics like hospitalizations.
不过，我们可能不能依赖报告的国家，因此流行病学家将关注其他指标，例如住院情况。
If the pathogen she died from was altered.
如果她死亡的病原体被改变了。
This bacterium occurs naturally in wildlife in parts of Russia.
这种细菌自然存在于俄罗斯部分地区的野生动物中。
Russia also has a long history of plague research and public health institutes that study and monitor it.
俄罗斯在鼠疫研究和公共卫生机构研究和监测方面也有着悠久的历史。
So the fact that someone was working with plague is not, by itself, a cause for concern.
因此，某人从事鼠疫研究这一事实本身并不值得担忧。
But Russia has engaged in biologic weapons development and the possibility of modifying infectious diseases to make them more transmissible or resistant to common antibiotics is real.
但俄罗斯已经致力于生物武器的开发，改变传染病以使其更容易传播或对常见抗生素产生耐药性的可能性是真实存在的。
Experts are keeping a close eye on a range of possibilities here.
Experts are keeping a close eye on a range of possibilities here.
All of this underscores something so important: Biosecurity and public health are essential infrastructure investments, not “nice to haves.” And this is why.
所有这些都强调了一些非常重要的事情：生物安全和公共卫生是重要的基础设施投资，而不是“有就更好”。这就是原因。
Without them, we won’t have rapid responses, resources for immediate action, or early detection.
没有它们，我们将无法做出快速反应、立即采取行动的资源或早期发现。
It’s that simple.
就是这么简单。
What this means for you: There are still many unknowns, but for now, this is an interesting situation that epidemiologists and biosecurity experts will continue to follow.
这对您意味着什么：仍然有许多未知因素，但就目前而言，这是一个有趣的情况，流行病学家和生物安全专家将继续关注。
The risk of a pandemic is very, very low.
大流行的风险非常非常低。
We know plague very well.
我们非常了解瘟疫。
We have treatments.
我们有治疗方法。
A big thanks to Dr. Claire Dillavou—epidemiologist, biosecurity expert, and friend—who jumped on this with me over the weekend.
非常感谢克莱尔·迪拉沃（Claire Dillavou）博士——流行病学家、生物安全专家和朋友——周末和我一起参与了这个研究。
Teen suicide risk is at its lowest point in a decade.
青少年自杀风险处于十年来的最低点。
According to CDC data, 14% of high school students seriously considered suicide in 2025, compared to 20% in 2023.
根据 CDC 数据，到 2025 年，14% 的高中生认真考虑过自杀，而 2023 年这一比例为 20%。
It also decreased among LGBTQ+ students (from 41% to 30%).
LGBTQ+ 学生的比例也有所下降（从 41% 降至 30%）。
Nobel Prize awarded for creating a way to turn brain cells on and off using light.
Nobel Prize awarded for creating a way to turn brain cells on and off using light.
The technique, called optogenetics, lets researchers see exactly which brain circuits control things like movement, mood, and memory.
这项被称为光遗传学的技术可以让研究人员准确地看到哪些大脑回路控制着运动、情绪和记忆等事物。
This can help explain what goes wrong in conditions like Parkinson’s, depression, epilepsy, and some kinds of blindness.
This can help explain what goes wrong in conditions like Parkinson’s, depression, epilepsy, and some kinds of blindness.
Treatments for patients are still in the early stages, but the discovery is already speeding up research into new ways to treat the brain.
对患者的治疗仍处于早期阶段，但这一发现已经加速了治疗大脑新方法的研究。
Re: Health equity piece.
回复：健康权益部分。
That was great!
那很棒！
But isn’t that image of the people on the boxes with a fence outdated?
But isn’t that image of the people on the boxes with a fence outdated?
Thanks for raising this, and you’re right.
感谢您提出这个问题，您是对的。
Like many others, we were familiar with this graphic because it’s so widely used in equity vs. equality conversations.
Like many others, we were familiar with this graphic because it’s so widely used in equity vs. equality conversations.
But thanks to readers who have pointed out its real limitations , we now understand we should leave it in the past.
But thanks to readers who have pointed out its real limitations , we now understand we should leave it in the past.
It frames advantage as an inborn trait like height rather than the result of social structures.
它将优势视为身高等先天特征，而不是社会结构的结果。
It leaves women out and treats the fence as a given, so equity becomes handing out boxes instead of removing the barriers themselves.
它将女性排除在外，并将围栏视为理所当然，因此公平变成了分发盒子，而不是自行消除障碍。
Since learning more, we’ve replaced it in the post.
由于了解了更多信息，我们在帖子中替换了它。
These visualizations better reflect how equity relates to many kinds of people and issues.
These visualizations better reflect how equity relates to many kinds of people and issues.
Get your flu vaccine early.
尽早接种流感疫苗。
If you’re sniffly, it’s probably the cold.
如果你流鼻涕，可能是感冒了。
The Russia story is worth watching as something interesting (not a top 10 worry in my mind today).
俄罗斯的故事值得一看，因为它很有趣（不是我今天心目中的十大担忧）。
As always, we will be back with more updates if/when they arise.
与往常一样，如果/当有更多更新出现时，我们将回来提供更多更新。
Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) is a team of experts, from physicians to immunologists to epidemiologists to nutritionists, working together with one goal: to “translate” ever-evolving public health science so people are well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions.
您的当地流行病学家 (YLE) 是一个由医生、免疫学家、流行病学家和营养学家组成的专家团队，他们共同努力实现一个目标：“转化”不断发展的公共卫生科学，以便人们有能力做出基于证据的决策。
The YLE suite of newsletters reaches over 475,000 people across more than 132 countries.
YLE 新闻通讯套件覆盖超过 132 个国家/地区的 475,000 多人。
This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members.
感谢 YLE 社区成员的慷慨支持，本通讯免费向所有人开放。
To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below:
为了支持这项工作，请订阅或升级如下：
Thanks for the article.
感谢您的文章。
Have been up for hours as I was in Sweden and am still on their time!
因为我在瑞典，所以已经起床好几个小时了，而且仍然准时！
Had so many interesting conversations while there with family and friends that live in Sweden.
Had so many interesting conversations while there with family and friends that live in Sweden.
Health Care is so attainable and is basically free.
医疗保健是很容易获得的，而且基本上是免费的。
Sure they pay more in taxes but the services they receive are excellent.
当然，他们缴纳的税款更多，但他们获得的服务非常好。
They believe the narrative we Americans hear that you wait several months for medical treatment because of socialized medicine is a false narrative.
他们认为，我们美国人听到的“由于社会化医疗而需要等待几个月才能接受治疗”的说法是错误的。
Why are we so behind...
为什么我们这么落后……
don't worry I know the answer!
别担心我知道答案！
Shame on private insurance companies and big pharma and all those who are bought and paid for in the health care space!!
私人保险公司和大型制药公司以及所有在医疗保健领域购买和支付费用的人感到羞耻！
Would you consider using bookshop.org instead of amazon for future book links?
Would you consider using bookshop.org instead of amazon for future book links?