Game Theory Lecture 1 | Game Theory

Chapter 1.

第一章。

What Is Strategy?

什么是战略？

[00:00:00] Professor Ben Polak: So this is Game Theory Economics 159.

[00:00:00] Ben Polak 教授：这是博弈论经济学 159。

If you're here for art history, you're either in the wrong room or stay anyway, maybe this is the right room; but this is Game Theory, okay.

如果你来这里是为了艺术史，你要么走错房间，要么留下来，也许这是正确的房间；但这是博弈论，好吧。

You should have four handouts; everyone should have four handouts.

你应该有四份讲义；每个人都应该有四份讲义。

There is a legal release form--we'll talk about it in a minute--about the videoing.

有一份关于视频的合法发布表格——我们稍后会讨论它。

There is a syllabus, which is a preliminary syllabus: it's also online.

有一个教学大纲，这是一个初步的教学大纲：它也是在线的。

And there are two games labeled Game 1 and Game 2.

有两个游戏，分别标记为游戏 1 和游戏 2。

Can I get you all to look at Game 1 and start thinking about it.

我可以让你们大家看看第一场比赛并开始思考它吗？

And while you're thinking about it, I am hoping you can multitask a bit.

当你在思考这个问题时，我希望你能同时处理多项任务。

I'll describe a bit about the class and we'll get a bit of admin under our belts.

我将描述一些关于班级的信息，我们将进行一些管理。

But please try and look at--somebody's not looking at it, because they're using it as a fan here--so look at Game 1 and fill out that form for me, okay?

但是请尝试看一下——有人没有看它，因为他们在这里将其用作粉丝——所以看一下游戏 1 并为我填写该表格，好吗？

So while you're filling that out, let me tell you a little bit about what we're going to be doing here.

因此，当您填写该信息时，让我告诉您一些我们将在这里做什么。

So what is Game Theory?

那么什么是博弈论呢？

Game Theory is a method of studying strategic situations.

博弈论是一种研究战略情境的方法。

So what's a strategic situation?

那么什么是战略形势呢？

Well let's start off with what's not a strategic situation.

好吧，让我们从非战略形势开始。

In your Economics - in your Intro Economics class in 115 or 110, you saw some pretty good examples of situations that were not strategic.

在你的经济学中——在 115 或 110 的经济学入门课上，你看到了一些非战略性情况的很好的例子。

You saw firms working in perfect competition.

你看到公司在完全竞争中运作。

Firms in perfect competition are price takers: they don't particularly have to worry about the actions of their competitors.

完全竞争中的企业是价格接受者：它们不必特别担心竞争对手的行为。

You also saw firms that were monopolists and monopolists don't have any competitors to worry about, so that's not a particularly strategic situation.

您还看到垄断企业和垄断企业没有任何竞争对手需要担心，因此这不是一个特别具有战略意义的情况。

They're not price takers but they take the demand curve.

他们不是价格接受者，但他们接受需求曲线。

Is this looking familiar for some of you who can remember doing 115 last year or maybe two years ago for some of you?

对于那些记得去年或两年前做过 115 的人来说，这看起来很熟悉吗？

Everything in between is strategic.

介于两者之间的一切都是战略性的。

So everything that constitutes imperfect competition is a strategic setting.

所以构成不完全竞争的一切都是战略设置。

Think about the motor industry, the motor car industry.

想想汽车行业、汽车行业。

Ford has to worry about what GM is doing and what Toyota is doing, and for the moment at least what Chrysler is doing but perhaps not for long.

福特必须担心通用汽车和丰田正在做什么，至少目前还要担心克莱斯勒正在做什么，但也许不会太久。

So there's a small number of firms and their actions affect each other.

因此，公司数量很少，他们的行为会相互影响。

So for a literal definition of what strategic means: it's a setting where the outcomes that affect you depend on actions, not just on your own actions, but on actions of others.

因此，对于战略含义的字面定义：它是一种影响你的结果取决于行动的环境，不仅取决于你自己的行动，还取决于其他人的行动。

All right, that's as much as I'm going to say for preview right now, we're going to come back and see plenty of this over the course of the next semester.

好吧，这就是我现在要说的预览内容，我们将在下学期回来看到很多这样的内容。

So what I want to do is get on to where this applies.

所以我想做的就是了解这一点适用的地方。

It obviously applies in Economics, but it also applies in politics, and in fact, this class will count as a Political Science class if you're a Political Science major.

它显然适用于经济学，但也适用于政治学，事实上，如果你是政治学专业，这门课将被视为政治学课程。

You should go check with the DUS in Political Science.

你应该去政治学专业的 DUS 那里查一下。

It count - Game Theory is very important in law these days.

它很重要——博弈论在当今的法律中非常重要。

So for those of you--for the half of you--that are going to end up in law school, this is pretty good training.

因此，对于你们中的一半人来说，最终将进入法学院，这是非常好的培训。

Game Theory is also used in biology and towards the middle of the semester we're actually going to see some examples of Game Theory as applied to evolution.

博弈论也用于生物学，在学期中期，我们实际上将看到一些博弈论应用于进化的例子。

And not surprisingly, Game Theory applies to sport.

毫不奇怪，博弈论适用于体育运动。

So let's talk about a bit of admin.

那么让我们谈谈一些管理方面的事情。

How are you doing on filling out those games?

您填写这些游戏的情况怎么样？

Everyone managing to multitask: filling in Game 1?

每个人都设法同时处理多项任务：填写游戏 1？

Keep writing.

继续写。

I want to get some admin out of the way and I want to start by getting out of the way what is obviously the elephant in the room.

我想让一些管理人员摆脱困境，并且我想首先摆脱显然是房间里的大象的麻烦。

Some of you will have noticed that there's a camera crew here, okay.

你们中有些人会注意到这里有一个摄制组，好吧。

So as some of you probably know, Yale is undergoing an open education project and they're videoing several classes, and the idea of this, is to make educational materials available beyond the walls of Yale.

你们中的一些人可能知道，耶鲁大学正在进行一个开放教育项目，他们正在录制几门课程的视频，其目的是让教育材料在耶鲁大学之外也可用。

In fact, on the web, internationally, so people in places, maybe places in the U.S. or places miles away, maybe in Timbuktu or whatever, who find it difficult to get educational materials from the local university or whatever, can watch certain lectures from Yale on the web.

事实上，在国际网络上，人们在某些地方，可能是美国的地方，也可能是几英里之外的地方，可能是在廷巴克图或其他地方，如果发现很难从当地大学或其他地方获得教育材料，可以在网上观看耶鲁大学的某些讲座。

Some of you would have been in classes that do that before.

你们中的一些人以前可能参加过这样做的课程。

What's going to different about this class is that you're going to be participating in it.

这门课的不同之处在于你将参与其中。

The way we teach this class is we're going to play games, we're going to have discussions, we're going to talk among the class, and you're going to be learning from each other, and I want you to help people watching at home to be able to learn too.

我们教授这门课的方式是我们要玩游戏，我们要进行讨论，我们要在班级中交谈，你们要互相学习，我希望你们帮助在家观看的人也能够学习。

And that means you're going to be on film, at the very least on mike.

这意味着你将出现在电影中，至少是迈克。

So how's that going to work?

那么这将如何运作呢？

Around the room are three T.A.s holding mikes.

房间周围是三个拿着麦克风的助教。

Let me show you where they are: one here, one here, and one here.

让我告诉你它们在哪里：这里一个，这里一个，这里一个。

When I ask for classroom discussions, I'm going to have one of the T.A.s go to you with a microphone much like in "Donahue" or something, okay.

当我要求进行课堂讨论时，我会让一名助教拿着麦克风走到你面前，就像“Donahue”之类的，好吧。

At certain times, you're going to be seen on film, so the camera is actually going to come around and point in your direction.

在某些时候，您会出现在胶片上，因此摄像机实际上会转过来并指向您的方向。

Now I really want this to happen.

现在我真的希望这一切发生。

I had to argue for this to happen, cause I really feel that this class isn't about me.

我不得不争论这件事的发生，因为我真的觉得这堂课不是关于我的。

I'm part of the class obviously, but it's about you teaching each other and participating.

显然我是班级的一部分，但这是关于你们互相教导和参与。

But there's a catch, the catch is, that that means you have to sign that legal release form.

但有一个问题，问题是，这意味着您必须签署该合法的授权书。

So you'll see that you have in front of you a legal release form, you have to be able to sign it, and what that says is that we can use you being shown in class.

所以你会看到你面前有一份合法的授权书，你必须能够签署它，这意味着我们可以在课堂上展示你。

Think of this as a bad hair day release form.

将此视为糟糕的发型日发布形式。

All right, you can't sue Yale later if you had a bad hair day.

好吧，如果你那天头发不好，你以后就不能起诉耶鲁大学了。

For those of you who are on the run from the FBI, your Visa has run out, or you're sitting next to your ex-girlfriend, now would be a good time to put a paper bag over your head.

对于那些正在逃避联邦调查局的人、你的签证已经过期，或者你坐在你前女友旁边的人来说，现在是把纸袋套在头上的好时机。

All right, now just to get you used to the idea, in every class we're going to have I think the same two people, so Jude is the cameraman; why don't you all wave to Jude: this is Jude okay.

好吧，现在只是为了让你习惯这个想法，在每堂课上我们都会有相同的两个人，所以裘德是摄影师；为什么你们不向裘德招手呢：这是裘德，好吧。

And Wes is our audio guy: this is Wes.

韦斯是我们的音频专家：这是韦斯。

And I will try and remember not to include Jude and Wes in the classroom discussions, but you should be aware that they're there.

我会尽量记住不要让裘德和韦斯参与课堂讨论，但你应该知道他们在那里。

Now, if this is making you nervous, if it's any consolation, it's making me very nervous.

现在，如果这让你感到紧张，如果这有什么安慰的话，那就让我非常紧张。

So, all right, we'll try and make this class work as smoothly as we can, allowing for this extra thing.

所以，好吧，我们将尽力让这门课尽可能顺利地进行，同时考虑到这些额外的事情。

Let me just say, no one's making any money off this--at least I'm hoping these guys are being paid--but me and the T.A.s are not being paid.

我只想说，没有人从中赚到任何钱——至少我希望这些人能得到报酬——但我和助教们却没有得到报酬。

The aim of this, that I think is a good aim, it's an educational project, and I'm hoping you'll help us with it.

我认为这个目标是一个很好的目标，这是一个教育项目，我希望你能帮助我们。

The one difference it is going to mean, is that at times I might hold some of the discussions for the class, coming down into this part of the room, here, to make it a little easier for Jude.

它意味着的一个区别是，有时我可能会在课堂上进行一些讨论，来到房间的这一部分，在这里，让裘德更容易一些。

All right, how are we doing now on filling out those forms?

好吧，我们现在填写这些表格的情况怎么样？

Has everyone filled in their strategy for the first game?

大家都填写好第一场比赛的策略了吗？

Not yet.

还没有。

Okay, let's go on doing a bit more admin.

好吧，让我们继续做更多的管理工作。

The thing you mostly care about I'm guessing, is the grades.

我猜你最关心的是成绩。

All right, so how is the grade going to work for this class?

好吧，那么这门课的成绩如何呢？

30% of the class will be on problem sets, 30% of the grade; 30% on the mid-term, and 40% on the final; so 30/30/40.

全班 30% 的学生将讨论习题集，30% 的学生将学习成绩；中期30%，期末40%；所以 30/30/40。

The mid-term will be held in class on October 17th; that is also in your syllabus.

10月17日期中考试上课；这也在你的教学大纲中。

Please don't anybody tell me late - any time after today you didn't know when the mid-term was and therefore it clashes with 17 different things.

请不要有人迟到告诉我——今天之后的任何时候你都不知道期中考试是什么时候，因此它与 17 个不同的事情发生冲突。

The mid-term is on October 17th, which is a Wednesday, in class.

期中考试是 10 月 17 日，周三，上课。

All right, the problem sets: there will be roughly ten problem sets and I'll talk about them more later on when I hand them out.

好吧，问题集：大约有十个问题集，稍后分发时我会详细讨论它们。

The first one will go out on Monday but it will be due ten days later.

第一份将于周一发出，但十天后到期。

Roughly speaking they'll be every week.

粗略地说，他们每周都会。

The grade distribution: all right, so this is the rough grade distribution.

等级分布：好的，这是粗略的等级分布。

Roughly speaking, a sixth of the class are going to end up with A's, a sixth are going to end up with A-, a sixth are going to end up with B+, a sixth are going to end up with B, a sixth are going to end up with B-, and the remaining sixth, if I added that up right, are going to end up with what I guess we're now calling the presidential grade, is that right?

粗略地说，全班六分之一的学生会得到 A，六分之一的学生会得到 A-，六分之一的学生会得到 B+，六分之一的学生会得到 B+，六分之一的学生会得到 B-，剩下的六分之一，如果我把这个加起来正确的话，最终会得到我们现在所说的总统等级，对吗？

That's not literally true.

这实际上并非如此。

I'm going to squeeze it a bit, I'm going to curve it a bit, so actually slightly fewer than a sixth will get straight A's, and fewer than a sixth will get C's and below.

我要把它挤压一点，我要把它弯曲一点，所以实际上略少于六分之一的人会得到直 A，而不到六分之一的人会得到 C 及以下。

We'll squeeze the middle to make them be more B's.

我们将挤压中间部分，使它们更加接近 B。

One thing I can guarantee from past experience in this class, is that the median grade will be a B+.

根据过去在这门课上的经验，我可以保证的一件事是，平均成绩将是 B+。

The median will fall somewhere in the B+'s.

中位数将落在 B+ 的某个位置。

Just as forewarning for people who have forgotten what a median is, that means half of you--not approximately half, it means exactly half of you--will be getting something like B+ and below and half will get something like B+ and above.

正如对忘记中位数是什么的人的警告一样，这意味着你们的一半（不是大约一半，而是恰好一半）将得到类似 B+ 及以下的结果，一半人将得到类似 B+ 及以上的结果。

Now, how are you doing in filling in the forms?

现在，您填写表格的情况怎么样？

Everyone filled them in yet?

大家都填好了吗？

Surely must be pretty close to getting everyone filled in.

肯定已经非常接近让每个人都被填满了。

All right, so last things to talk about before I actually collect them in - textbooks.

好吧，在我真正将它们收集到教科书之前，最后要谈的是。

There are textbooks for this class.

这门课有课本。

The main textbook is this one, Dutta's book Strategy and Games .

主要教材是这本，杜塔的书《策略与游戏》。

If you want a slightly tougher book, more rigorous book, try Joel Watson's book, Strategies.

如果你想要一本稍微难一点、更严谨的书，可以试试乔尔·沃森的书《策略》。

Both of those books are available at the bookstore.

这两本书在书店都有售。

But I want to warn everybody ahead of time, I will not be following the textbook.

但我想提前警告大家，我不会按照教科书来。

I regard these books as safety nets.

我将这些书视为安全网。

If you don't understand something that happened in class, you want to reinforce an idea that came up in class, then you should read the relevant chapters in the book and the syllabus will tell you which chapters to read for each class, or for each week of class, all right.

如果你不明白课堂上发生的事情，你想强化课堂上出现的一个想法，那么你应该阅读书中的相关章节，教学大纲会告诉你每节课或每周的课要阅读哪些章节，好吧。

But I will not be following these books religiously at all.

但我根本不会虔诚地阅读这些书。

In fact, they're just there as back up.

事实上，他们只是作为后备力量。

In addition, I strongly recommend people read, Thinking Strategically .

此外，我强烈建议人们阅读《战略思考》。

This is good bedtime reading.

这是很好的睡前读物。

Do any of you suffer from insomnia?

你们中有人患有失眠症吗？

It's very good bedtime reading if you suffer from insomnia.

如果你患有失眠症，这是非常好的睡前读物。

It's a good book and what's more there's going to be a new edition of this book this year and Norton have allowed us to get advance copies of it.

这是一本好书，而且今年将推出新版本，诺顿允许我们预购该书。

So if you don't buy this book this week, I may be able to make the advance copy of the new edition available for some of you next week.

因此，如果您本周不购买这本书，我也许可以在下周为你们中的一些人提供新版本的预售本。

I'm not taking a cut on that either, all right, there's no money changing hands.

我也不会从中分一杯羹，好吧，没有钱易手。

All right, sections are on the syllabus sign up - sorry on the website, sign up as usual.

好吧，部分内容已在教学大纲注册中 - 抱歉在网站上，请像往常一样注册。

Put yourself down on the wait list if you don't get into the section you want.

如果您没有进入您想要的部分，请将自己列入等待名单。

You probably will get into the section you want once we're done.

一旦我们完成，您可能会进入您想要的部分。

All right, now we must be done with the forms.

好吧，现在我们必须完成表格了。

Are we done with the forms?

我们的表格处理完了吗？

All right, so why don't we send the T.A.s, with or without mikes, up and down the aisles and collect in your Game #1; not Game #2, just Game #1.

好吧，那么我们为什么不让助教们在过道上走来走去，并在您的游戏 #1 中收集呢？不是游戏#2，只是游戏#1。

Just while we're doing that, I think the reputation of this class--I think--if you look at the course evaluations online or whatever, is that this class is reasonably hard but reasonably fun.

就在我们这样做的时候，我认为这门课的声誉——我想——如果你在网上查看课程评估或其他什么，就会发现这门课相当难，但相当有趣。

So I'm hoping that's what the reputation of the class is.

所以我希望这就是班级的声誉。

If you think this class is going to be easy, I think it isn't actually an easy class.

如果你认为这门课很简单，我认为它实际上并不是一门简单的课。

It's actually quite a hard class, but I think I can guarantee it's going to be a fun class.

这实际上是一堂很难的课，但我想我可以保证这将是一堂有趣的课。

Now one reason it's a fun class, is the nice thing about teaching Game Theory - quieten down folks--one thing about teaching Game Theory is, you get to play games, and that's exactly what we've just been doing now.

这是一门有趣的课程，原因之一是教授博弈论的好处——让大家安静下来——教授博弈论的好处之一是，你可以玩游戏，而这正是我们现在一直在做的事情。

This is our first game and we're going to play games throughout the course, sometimes several times a week, sometimes just once a week.

这是我们的第一场比赛，我们将在整个课程中玩游戏，有时每周几次，有时每周一次。

We got all these things in?

我们把所有这些东西都放进去了？

Everyone handed them in?

大家都交了吗？

So I need to get those counted.

所以我需要计算这些。

Has anyone taken the Yale Accounting class?

有人上过耶鲁会计课吗？

No one wants to - has aspirations to be - one person has.

没有人愿意——有愿望成为——一个人拥有。

I'll have a T.A.

我会有一个 T.A.

do it, it's all right, we'll have a T.A.

做吧，没关系，我们会有 T.A.

do it.

做吧。

So Kaj, can you count those for me?

Kaj，你能帮我数一下吗？

Is that right?

是这样吗？

Let me read out the game you've just played.

让我读出你刚刚玩的游戏。

"Game 1, a simple grade scheme for the class.

“游戏 1，班级的简单评分计划。

Read the following carefully.

仔细阅读以下内容。

Without showing your neighbor what you are doing, put it in the box below either the letter Alpha or the letter Beta.

在不向邻居展示您在做什么的情况下，将其放入字母 Alpha 或字母 Beta 下方的框中。

Think of this as a grade bid.

将此视为等级出价。

I will randomly pair your form with another form and neither you nor your pair will ever know with whom you were paired.

我会将您的表格与另一个表格随机配对，您和您的配对都不会知道您与谁配对。

Here's how the grades may be assigned for the class.

以下是如何为班级分配成绩。

[Well they won't be, but we can pretend.] If you put Alpha and you're paired with Beta, then you will get an A and your pair a C.

[好吧，他们不会，但我们可以假装。] 如果你把 Alpha 放在一起，而你与 Beta 配对，那么你将得到 A，你的配对将得到 C。

If you and your pair both put Alpha, you'll both get B-.

如果你和你的搭档都选择了 Alpha，那么你们都会得到 B-。

If you put Beta and you're paired with Alpha, you'll get a C and your pair an A.

如果你把 Beta 和 Alpha 配对，你会得到 C，你的配对会得到 A。

If you and your pair both put Beta, then you'll both get B+."

如果你和你的搭档都选择了 Beta，那么你们都会得到 B+。”

Now before we talk about this, let's just collect this information in a more useful way.

现在，在我们讨论这个之前，让我们以更有用的方式收集这些信息。

So I'm going to remove this for now.

所以我现在要删除它。

We'll discuss this in a second, but why don't we actually record what the game is, that we're playing, first.

我们稍后会讨论这个问题，但为什么我们不首先实际记录我们正在玩的游戏是什么。

So this is our grade game, and what I'm going to do, since it's kind of hard to absorb all the information just by reading a paragraph of text, I'm going to make a table to record the information.

这就是我们的年级游戏，也是我要做的，因为仅通过阅读一段文字很难吸收所有信息，所以我将制作一个表格来记录信息。

So what I'm going to do is I'm going to put me here, and my pair, the person I'm randomly paired with here, and Alpha and Beta, which are the choices I'm going to make here and on the columns Alpha and Beta, the choices my pair is making.

所以我要做的就是把我放在这里，还有我的配对，我在这里随机配对的人，以及阿尔法和贝塔，这是我要在这里做出的选择，在阿尔法和贝塔列上，我的配对正在做出的选择。

In this table, I'm going to put my grades.

在这张表中，我将填写我的成绩。

So my grade if we both put Alpha is B-, if we both put Beta, was B+.

因此，如果我们都选择 Alpha，我的成绩是 B-，如果我们都选择 Beta，我的成绩是 B+。

If I put Alpha and she put a Beta, I got an A, and if I put Beta and she put an Alpha, I got a C.

如果我输入 Alpha，她输入 Beta，我会得到 A，如果我输入 Beta，她输入 Alpha，我会得到 C。

Is that correct?

这是正确的吗？

That's more or less right?

这或多或少是对的吗？

Yeah, okay while we're here, why don't we do the same for my pair?

是的，好吧，既然我们在这里，为什么我们不为我的一对做同样的事情呢？

So this is my grades on the left hand table, but now let's look at what my pair will do, what my pair will get.

这是我在左表上的成绩，但现在让我们看看我的配对会做什么，我的配对会得到什么。

So I should warn the people sitting at the back that my handwriting is pretty bad, that's one reason for moving forward.

所以我应该警告坐在后面的人，我的笔迹很糟糕，这是继续前进的原因之一。

The other thing I should apologize at this stage of the class is my accent.

在课程的这个阶段我应该道歉的另一件事是我的口音。

I will try and improve the handwriting, there's not much I can do about the accent at this stage.

我会努力改进笔迹，现阶段我对口音无能为力。

So once again if you both put Alpha then my pair gets a B-.

因此，如果你们都选择 Alpha，那么我的配对将得到 B-。

If we both put Beta, then we both get a B+; in particular, my pair gets a B+.

如果我们都选择 Beta，那么我们都会得到 B+；特别是，我的配对得到了 B+。

If I put Alpha and my pair puts Beta, then she gets a C.

如果我放 Alpha，我的配对放 Beta，那么她会得到 C。

And if I put Beta and she puts Alpha, then she gets an A.

如果我输入 Beta，她输入 Alpha，那么她会得到 A。

So I now have all the information that was on the sheet of paper that you just handed in.

现在我已经掌握了您刚刚提交的纸上的所有信息。

Now there's another way of organizing this that's standard in Game Theory, so we may as well get used to it now on the first day.

现在有另一种组织方式，这是博弈论中的标准，所以我们不妨在第一天就习惯它。

Rather then drawing two different tables like this, what I'm going to do is I'm going to take the second table and super-impose it on top of the first table.

我要做的不是像这样绘制两个不同的表格，而是将第二个表格叠加到第一个表格的顶部。

Okay, so let me do that and you'll see what I mean.

好吧，让我这样做，你就会明白我的意思了。

What I'm going to do is draw a larger table, the same basic structure: I'm choosing Alpha and Beta on the rows, my pair is choosing Alpha and Beta on the columns, but now I'm going to put both grades in.

我要做的是画一个更大的表格，基本结构相同：我在行上选择 Alpha 和 Beta，我的配对在列上选择 Alpha 和 Beta，但现在我要把两个成绩都放进去。

So the easy ones are on the diagonal: you both get B- if we both choose Alpha; we both get B+ if we both choose Beta.

所以简单的就在对角线上：如果我们都选择 Alpha，你们都会得到 B-；如果我们都选择 Beta，我们都会得到 B+。

But if I choose Alpha and my pair chooses Beta, I get an A and she gets a C.

但如果我选择 Alpha，而我的搭档选择 Beta，我会得到 A，她会得到 C。

And if I choose Beta and she chooses Alpha, then it's me who gets the C and it's her who gets the A.

如果我选择 Beta 而她选择 Alpha，那么我会得到 C，而她会得到 A。

So notice what I did here.

所以请注意我在这里做了什么。

The first grade corresponds to the row player, me in this case, and the second grade in each box corresponds to the column player, my pair in this case.

第一年级对应于行玩家，在本例中为我，每个框中的第二年级对应于列玩家，在本例中为我的一对。

So this is a nice succinct way of recording what was in the previous two tables.

因此，这是记录前两个表中内容的一种很好的简洁方式。

This is an outcome matrix; this tells us everything that was in the game.

这是一个结果矩阵；这告诉我们游戏中的一切。

Okay, so now seems a good time to start talking about what people did.

好的，现在似乎是开始谈论人们做了什么的好时机。

So let's just have a show of hands.

让我们举手吧。

How many of you chose Alpha?

你们中有多少人选择了阿尔法？

Leave your hands up so that Jude can catch that, so people can see at home, okay.

请举起手，以便裘德能接住，这样人们在家就能看到，好吗？

All right and how many of you chose Beta?

好吧，你们中有多少人选择了 Beta？

There's far more Alphas - wave your hands the Beta's okay.

还有更多的阿尔法 - 挥挥手，贝塔就可以了。

All right, there's a Beta here, okay.

好吧，这里有一个测试版，好吧。

So it looks like a lot of - well we're going to find out, we're going to count--but a lot more Alpha's than Beta's.

所以看起来有很多——好吧，我们会发现，我们会计算——但 Alpha 的数量比 Beta 的多得多。

Let me try and find out some reasons why people chose.

让我尝试找出人们选择的一些原因。

So let me have the Alpha's up again.

那么让我再次启动 Alpha。

So, the woman who's in red here, can we get a mike to the - yeah, is it okay if we ask you?

那么，这里穿红衣服的女士，我们可以拿个麦克风吗？是的，我们可以问你吗？

You're not on the run from the FBI?

你不是在逃避联邦调查局吗？

We can ask you why?

我们可以问你为什么？

Okay, so you chose Alpha right?

好吧，所以你选择了 Alpha，对吗？

So why did you choose Alpha?

那你为什么选择阿尔法呢？

Student: [inaudible] realized that my partner chose Alpha, therefore I chose [inaudible].

学生：[听不清]意识到我的搭档选择了 Alpha，因此我选择了[听不清]。

Professor Ben Polak: All right, so you wrote out these squares, you realized what your partner was going to do, and responded to that.

本·波拉克教授：好吧，所以你写下了这些方块，你意识到你的搭档要做什么，并做出回应。

Any other reasons for choosing Alpha around the room?

选择 Alpha 的还有其他原因吗？

Can we get the woman here?

我们能把那个女人叫到这里来吗？

Try not to be intimidated by these microphones, they're just mikes.

不要被这些麦克风吓倒，它们只是麦克风。

It's okay.

没关系。

Student: The reason I chose Alpha, regardless of what my partner chose, I think there would be better outcomes than choosing Beta.

学生：我之所以选择Alpha，无论我的伴侣选择什么，我认为都会比选择Beta有更好的结果。

Professor Ben Polak: All right, so let me ask your names for a second-so your name was?

本·波拉克教授：好的，让我问一下你们的名字——那么你们的名字是？

Professor Ben Polak: Clara Elise.

本·波拉克教授：克拉拉·埃莉斯。

So slightly different reasons, same choice Alpha.

所以略有不同的原因，相同的选择Alpha。

Clara Elise's reason - what did Clara Elise say?

克拉拉·埃莉斯的理由 - 克拉拉·埃莉斯说了什么？

She said, no matter what the other person does, she reckons she'd get a better grade if she chose Alpha.

她说，不管对方做什么，她认为如果她选择Alpha，自己的成绩会更好。

So hold that thought a second, we'll come back to - is it Clara Elise, is that right?

因此，请稍等一下，我们会回到 - 是 Clara Elise，是吗？

We'll come back to Clara Elise in a second.

我们稍后会回到克拉拉·埃莉斯。

Let's talk to the Beta's a second; let me just emphasize at this stage there are no wrong answers.

让我们再谈谈 Beta 版；让我强调一下，现阶段没有错误的答案。

Later on in the class there'll be some questions that have wrong answers.

稍后在课堂上会出现一些答案错误的问题。

Right now there's no wrong answers.

现在没有错误的答案。

There may be bad reasons but there's no wrong answers.

可能有不好的理由，但没有错误的答案。

So let's have the Beta's up again.

那么让我们再次启动 Beta 版吧。

Let's see the Beta's.

让我们看看 Beta 版。

Oh come on!

哦来吧！

There was a Beta right here.

这里有一个 Beta 版。

You were a Beta right?

你是 Beta 对吗？

You backed off the Beta, okay.

你放弃了 Beta 版，好吧。

So how can I get a mike into a Beta?

那么如何才能让麦克风进入 Beta 版呢？

Let' s stick in this aisle a bit.

让我们在这条过道里停留一会儿吧。

Is that a Beta right there?

那是 Beta 版吗？

Are you a Beta right there?

你是那里的贝塔吗？

Can I get the Beta in here?

我可以在这里获取 Beta 版吗？

Who was the Beta in here?

这里的贝塔是谁？

Can we get the mike in there?

我们可以把麦克风放进去吗？

Is that possible?

这可能吗？

In here - you can leave your hand so that - there we go.

在这里——你可以把手放开——这样我们就可以开始了。

Just point towards - that's fine, just speak into it, that's fine.

只要指向——就可以了，只要对着它说话就可以了。

Student: I personally don't like swings that much and it's the B-/B+ range, so I'd much rather prefer that to a swing from A to C, and that's my reason.

学生：我个人不太喜欢秋千，而且它是 B-/B+ 范围，所以我更喜欢从 A 到 C 的秋千，这就是我的原因。

Professor Ben Polak: All right, so you're saying it compresses the range.

Ben Polak 教授：好吧，你是说它压缩了范围。

I'm not sure it does compress the range.

我不确定它是否会压缩范围。

I mean if you chose Alpha, you're swinging from A to B-; and from Beta, swinging from B+ to C.

我的意思是，如果你选择 Alpha，你就会从 A 摇摆到 B-；从 Beta 开始，从 B+ 摆动到 C。

I mean those are similar kind of ranges but it certainly is a reason.

我的意思是这些是类似的范围，但这肯定是一个原因。

Other reasons for choosing?

选择的其他原因？

Yeah, the guy in blue here, yep, good.

是的，这里的蓝衣人，是的，很好。

That's all right.

没关系。

Don't hold the mike; just let it point at you, that's fine.

不要握住麦克风；只要让它指向你，就可以了。

Student: Well I guess I thought we could be more collusive and kind of work together, but I guess not.

学生：嗯，我想我认为我们可以更加共谋，一起工作，但我想不是。

So I chose Beta.

所以我选择了贝塔。

Professor Ben Polak: There's a siren in the background so I missed the answer.

本·波拉克教授：背景中有警报声，所以我错过了答案。

Stand up a second, so we can just hear you.

请站起来，以便我们能听到您的声音。

Student: Sure.

学生：当然。

My name is Travis.

我叫特拉维斯。

I thought we could work together, but I guess not.

我以为我们可以一起工作，但我想不行。

Professor Ben Polak: All right good.

Ben Polak 教授： 好的，很好。

That's a pretty good reason.

这是一个很好的理由。

Student: If you had chosen Beta we would have all gotten B+'s but I guess not.

学生：如果你选择 Beta，我们都会得到 B+，但我想不会。

Professor Ben Polak: Good, so Travis is giving us a different reason, right?

本·波拉克教授：很好，特拉维斯给了我们一个不同的理由，对吗？

He's saying that maybe, some of you in the room might actually care about each other's grades, right?

他是说，也许，你们中的一些人可能真的关心彼此的成绩，对吗？

I mean you all know each other in class.

我的意思是你们在课堂上都认识。

You all go to the same college.

你们都上同一所大学。

For example, if we played this game up in the business school--are there any MBA students here today?

比如说，如果我们在商学院玩这个游戏——今天这里有MBA学生吗？

One or two.

一两个。

If we play this game up in the business school, I think it's quite likely we're going to get a lot of Alpha's chosen, right?

如果我们在商学院玩这个游戏，我想我们很可能会选择很多阿尔法，对吧？

But if we played this game up in let's say the Divinity School, all right and I'm guessing that Travis' answer is reflecting what you guys are reasoning here.

但如果我们在神学院玩这个游戏，好吧，我猜特拉维斯的答案反映了你们在这里的推理。

If you played in the Divinity School, you might think that people in the Divinity School might care about other people's grades, right?

如果你在神学院打球，你可能会觉得神学院的人可能会关心别人的成绩吧？

There might be ethical reasons--perfectly good, sensible, ethical reasons--for choosing Beta in this game.

在这款游戏中选择 Beta 可能有道德原因——非常好的、明智的、道德的原因。

There might be other reasons as well, but that's perhaps the reason to focus on.

可能还有其他原因，但这也许是值得关注的原因。

And perhaps, the lesson I want to draw out of this is that right now this is not a game.

也许，我想从中吸取的教训是，现在这不是一场游戏。

Right now we have actions, strategies for people to take, and we know what the outcomes are, but we're missing something that will make this a game.

现在我们有行动、有策略供人们采取，我们知道结果是什么，但我们缺少一些能让这成为游戏的东西。

What are we missing here?

我们在这里缺少什么？

Professor Ben Polak: We're missing objectives.

Ben Polak 教授：我们缺少目标。

We're missing payoffs.

我们缺少回报。

We're missing what people care about, all right.

我们错过了人们关心的事情，好吧。

So we can't really start analyzing a game until we know what people care about, and until we know what the payoffs are.

因此，除非我们知道人们关心什么，并且知道回报是什么，否则我们无法真正开始分析游戏。

Now let's just say something now, which I'll probably forget to say in any other moment of the class, but today it's relevant.

现在让我们说一些话，在课堂上的任何其他时刻我可能会忘记说这些，但今天它是相关的。

Game Theory, me, professors at Yale, cannot tell you what your payoff should be.

博弈论，我，耶鲁大学的教授，无法告诉你你的回报应该是多少。

I can't tell you in a useful way what it is that your goals in life should be or whatever.

我无法以有用的方式告诉你你的人生目标应该是什么或其他什么。

That's not what Game Theory is about.

这不是博弈论的目的。

However, once we know what your payoffs are, once we know what your goals are, perhaps Game Theory can you help you get there.

然而，一旦我们知道你的回报是什么，一旦我们知道你的目标是什么，也许博弈论可以帮助你实现目标。

So we've had two different kinds of payoffs mentioned here.

所以我们这里提到了两种不同的回报。

We had the kind of payoff where we care about our own grade, and Travis has mentioned the kind of payoff where you might care about other people's grades.

我们有一种关心自己成绩的回报，特拉维斯也提到了你可能关心别人成绩的那种回报。

And what we're going to do today is analyze this game under both those possible payoffs.

今天我们要做的就是在这两种可能的收益下分析这个游戏。

To start that off, let's put up some possible payoffs for the game.

首先，让我们为游戏提出一些可能的回报。

And I promise we'll come back and look at some other payoffs later.

我保证我们稍后会回来看看其他一些回报。

We'll revisit the Divinity School later.

稍后我们将重温神学院。

All right, so here once again is our same matrix with me and my pair, choosing actions Alpha and Beta, but this time I'm going to put numbers in here.

好吧，这里再次是我和我的搭档的相同矩阵，选择行动 Alpha 和 Beta，但这次我将在此处输入数字。

And some of you will perhaps recognize these numbers, but that's not really relevant for now.

你们中的一些人可能会认识这些数字，但目前这并不重要。

All right, so what's the idea here?

好吧，那么这里的想法是什么？

Well the first idea is that these numbers represent utiles or utilities.

那么第一个想法是这些数字代表实用程序或实用程序。

They represent what these people are trying to maximize, what they're to achieve, their goals.

它们代表了这些人试图最大化什么、他们要实现什么、他们的目标。

The idea is - just to compare this to the outcome matrix - for the person who's me here, (A,C) yields a payoff of--(A,C) is this box--so (A,C) yields a payoff of three, whereas (B-,B-) yields a payoff of 0, and so on.

这个想法是 - 只是将其与结果矩阵进行比较 - 对于我在这里的人来说，（A，C）产生的回报 - （A，C）是这个盒子 - 所以（A，C）产生的回报为 3，而（B-，B-）产生的回报为 0，依此类推。

So what's the interpretation?

那么解释是什么呢？

It's the first interpretation: the natural interpretation that a lot of you jumped to straight away.

这是第一种解释：你们很多人立即跳到的自然解释。

These are people--people with these payoffs are people--who only care about their own grades.

这些人——拥有这些回报的人——只关心自己的成绩。

They prefer an A to a B+, they prefer a B+ to a B-, and they prefer a B- to a C.

他们更喜欢 A 而不是 B+，他们更喜欢 B+ 而不是 B-，他们更喜欢 B- 而不是 C。

Right, I'm hoping I the grades in order, otherwise it's going to ruin my curve at the end of the year.

是的，我希望我的成绩能按顺序进行，否则年底的时候我的曲线就会毁了。

So these people only care about their own grades.

所以这些人只关心自己的成绩。

They only care about their own grades.

他们只关心自己的成绩。

What do we call people who only care about their own grades?

只关心自己成绩的人叫什么？

What's a good technical term for them?

对他们来说什么是好的技术术语？

In England, I think we refer to these guys - whether it's technical or not - as "evil gits." These are not perhaps the most moral people in the universe.

在英国，我认为我们将这些人称为“邪恶的混蛋”——无论是否是技术性的。这些人也许不是宇宙中最有道德的人。

So now we can ask a different question.

所以现在我们可以问一个不同的问题。

Suppose, whether these are actually your payoffs or not, pretend they are for now.

假设，无论这些是否真的是你的回报，暂时假设它们是。

Suppose these are all payoffs.

假设这些都是回报。

Now we can ask, not what did you do, but what should you do?

现在我们可以问，不是你做了什么，而是你应该做什么？

Now we have payoffs that can really switch the question to a normative question: what should you do?

现在我们有了回报，可以真正将问题转变为规范问题：你应该做什么？

Let's come back to - was it Clara Elise--where was Clara Elise before?

让我们回到——是克拉拉·埃莉斯吗——克拉拉·埃莉斯之前在哪里？

Let's get the mike on you again.

让我们再次给你戴上麦克风吧。

So just explain what you did and why again.

因此，只需再次解释一下您做了什么以及为什么。

Professor Ben Polak: Yeah, stand up a second, if that's okay.

本·波拉克教授：好的，请站起来，如果可以的话。

Professor Ben Polak: You chose Alpha; I'm assuming these were roughly your payoffs, more or less, you were caring about your grades.

Ben Polak教授：你选择了Alpha；我假设这些大致是你的回报，或多或少，你关心你的成绩。

Professor Ben Polak: Why did you choose Alpha?

Ben Polak 教授：你为什么选择 Alpha？

Just repeat what you said before.

只要重复你之前说的话就可以了。

Student: Because I thought the payoffs - the two different payoffs that I could have gotten--were highest if I chose Alpha.

学生：因为我认为如果我选择阿尔法，我可以获得的两种不同的回报是最高的。

Professor Ben Polak: Good; so what Clara Elise is saying--it's an important idea--is this (and tell me if I'm paraphrasing you incorrectly but I think this is more or less what you're saying): is no matter what the other person does, no matter what the pair does, she obtains a higher payoff by choosing Alpha.

Ben Polak 教授： 好；所以克拉拉·埃莉斯所说的——这是一个重要的想法——是这样的（请告诉我，我的解释是否错误，但我认为这或多或少就是你所说的）：无论对方做什么，无论两人做什么，她通过选择阿尔法都会获得更高的回报。

Let's just see that.

让我们看看吧。

If the pair chooses Alpha and she chooses Alpha, then she gets 0.

如果两人选择 Alpha 并且她选择 Alpha，那么她得到 0。

If the pair chooses Alpha and she chose Beta, she gets -1.

如果两人选择 Alpha 而她选择 Beta，则她得到 -1。

0 is bigger than -1.

0 大于 -1。

If the pair chooses Beta, then if she chooses Alpha she gets 3, Beta she gets 1, and 3 is bigger than 1.

如果两人选择 Beta，那么如果她选择 Alpha，她会得到 3，Beta 她会得到 1，并且 3 比 1 大。

So in both cases, no matter what the other person does, she receives a higher payoff from choosing Alpha, so she should choose Alpha.

所以在这两种情况下，无论对方做什么，她选择Alpha都会获得更高的回报，所以她应该选择Alpha。

Does everyone follow that line of reasoning?

每个人都遵循这个推理吗？

That's a stronger line of reasoning then the reasoning we had earlier.

这是比我们之前的推理更强有力的推理。

So the woman, I have immediately forgotten the name of, in the red shirt, whose name was -

所以那个穿红衬衫的女人，我立刻就忘记了她的名字，她的名字是——

Professor Ben Polak: Courtney, so Courtney also gave a reason for choosing Alpha, and it was a perfectly good reason for choosing Alpha, nothing wrong with it, but notice that this reason's a stronger reason.

Ben Polak教授：Courtney，所以Courtney也给出了选择Alpha的理由，这是一个非常好的选择Alpha的理由，没有什么问题，但请注意，这个理由是一个更强有力的理由。

It kind of implies your reason.

这有点暗示你的理由。

So let's get some definitions down here.

让我们在这里得到一些定义。

I think I can fit it in here.

我想我可以把它放在这里。

Let's try and fit it in here.

让我们尝试将其安装在这里。

Definition: We say that my strategy Alpha strictly dominates my strategy Beta, if my payoff from Alpha is strictly greater than that from Beta, [and this is the key part of the definition] , regardless of what others do .

定义：如果我从 Alpha 获得的收益严格大于从 Beta 获得的收益，我们就说我的策略 Alpha 严格支配我的策略 Beta，[这是定义的关键部分]，无论其他人做什么。

Shall we just read that back?

我们再读一遍好吗？

"We say that my strategy Alpha strictly dominates my strategy Beta, if my payoff from Alpha is strictly greater than that from Beta, regardless of what others do." Now it's by no means my main aim in this class to teach you jargon.

“如果我从 Alpha 获得的收益严格大于从 Beta 获得的收益，那么无论其他人做什么，我的策略 Alpha 严格支配我的策略 Beta。”现在，我这堂课的主要目的绝不是教你们术语。

But a few bits of jargon are going to be helpful in allowing the conversation to move forward and this is certainly one.

但一些行话将有助于让对话继续进行，这无疑是其中之一。

"Evil gits" is maybe one too, but this is certainly one.

“邪恶的混蛋”也许也是其中之一，但这肯定是其中之一。

Let's draw out some lessons from this.

让我们从中吸取一些教训。

Actually, so you can still read that, let me bring down and clean this board.

事实上，所以你仍然可以阅读它，让我把这块板拆下来并清理一下。

So the first lesson of the class, and there are going to be lots of lessons, is a lesson that emerges immediately from the definition of a dominated strategy and it's this.

因此，这堂课的第一课，以及将会有很多课，是从主导策略的定义中立即出现的一课，就是这样的。

So Lesson One of the course is: do not play a strictly dominated strategy .

所以课程的第一课是：不要玩严格占优的策略。

So with apologies to Strunk and White, this is in the passive form, that's dominated, passive voice.

因此，向斯特伦克和怀特致歉，这是被动形式，即主导的被动语态。

Do not play a strictly dominated strategy.

不要采取严格占优的策略。

Why?

为什么？

Somebody want to tell me why?

有人想告诉我为什么吗？

Do you want to get this guy?

你想得到这个家伙吗？

Stand up - yeah.

站起来——是的。

Student: Because everyone's going to pick the dominant outcome and then everyone's going to get the worst result - the collectively worst result.

学生：因为每个人都会选择主导结果，然后每个人都会得到最差的结果——集体最差的结果。

Professor Ben Polak: Yeah, that's a possible answer.

Ben Polak 教授：是的，这是一个可能的答案。

I'm looking for something more direct here.

我在这里寻找更直接的东西。

So we look at the definition of a strictly dominated strategy.

所以我们来看看严格占优策略的定义。

I'm saying never play one.

我是说永远不要玩一个。

What's a possible reason for that?

可能的原因是什么？

Let's - can we get the woman there?

让我们——我们能把那个女人带到那里吗？

Professor Ben Polak: "You'll always lose." Well, I don't know: it's not about winning and losing.

本·波拉克教授：“你永远都会输。”好吧，我不知道：这与输赢无关。

What else could we have?

我们还能有什么？

Could we get this guy in the pink down here?

我们能把这个穿粉红色衣服的家伙弄下来吗？

Professor Ben Polak: The payoffs are lower, okay.

本·波拉克教授：回报较低，好吧。

So here's an abbreviated version of that, I mean it's perhaps a little bit longer.

这是它的缩写版本，我的意思是它可能更长一点。

The reason I don't want to play a strictly dominated strategy is, if instead, I play the strategy that dominates it, I do better in every case.

我不想玩严格占主导地位的策略的原因是，如果相反，我玩占主导地位的策略，我在每种情况下都会做得更好。

The reason I never want to play a strictly dominated strategy is, if instead I play the strategy that dominates it, whatever anyone else does I'm doing better than I would have done.

我从来不想玩严格主导策略的原因是，如果我玩的是主导策略，那么无论其他人做什么，我都会比我做得更好。

Now that's a pretty convincing argument.

现在这是一个非常有说服力的论点。

That sounds like a convincing argument.

这听起来像是一个令人信服的论据。

It sounds like too obvious even to be worth stating in class, so let me now try and shake your faith a little bit in this answer.

这听起来太明显了，甚至不值得在课堂上陈述，所以现在让我尝试稍微动摇你对这个答案的信心。

Okay, so how about the following argument?

好吧，那么下面的论证怎么样？

Look at the payoff matrix again and suppose I reason as follows.

再次查看收益矩阵，假设我的推理如下。

Suppose I reason and say if we, me and my pair, both reason this way and choose Alpha then we'll both get 0.

假设我推理并说，如果我们、我和我的搭档都以这种方式推理并选择 Alpha，那么我们都会得到 0。

But if we both reasoned a different way and chose Beta, then we'll both get 1.

但如果我们都以不同的方式推理并选择 Beta，那么我们都会得到 1。

So I should choose Beta: 1 is bigger than 0, I should choose Beta.

所以我应该选择Beta：1大于0，我应该选择Beta。

What's wrong with that argument?

这个论点有什么问题吗？

My argument must be wrong because it goes against the lesson of the class and the lessons of the class are gospel right, they're not wrong ever, so what's wrong with that argument?

我的论点一定是错误的，因为它违背了课堂上的教训，而课堂上的教训是福音正确的，它们从来都没有错，那么这个论点有什么问题呢？

Yes, Ale - yeah good.

是的，艾尔啤酒——是的，很好。

Student: Well because you have to be able to agree, you have to be able to speak to them but we aren't allowed to show our partners what we wrote.

学生：嗯，因为你必须能够同意，你必须能够与他们交谈，但我们不被允许向我们的合作伙伴展示我们写的内容。

Professor Ben Polak: All right, so it involves some notion of agreeing.

本·波拉克教授：好吧，所以这涉及到一些同意的概念。

So certainly part of the problem here, with the reasoning I just gave you--the reasoning that said I should choose Beta, because if we both reason the same way, we both do better that way--involves some kind of magical reasoning.

所以，当然，这里问题的一部分，以及我刚才给你的推理——我应该选择 Beta 的推理，因为如果我们都以同样的方式推理，我们都会以同样的方式做得更好——涉及某种神奇的推理。

It's as if I'm arguing that if I reason this way and reason myself to choosing Beta, somehow I'm going to make the rest of you reason the same way too.

就好像我在争论，如果我以这种方式推理并说服自己选择 Beta，不知何故，我会让你们其他人也以同样的方式推理。

It's like I've got ESP or I'm some character out of the X-Men, is that what it's called?

就好像我有超能力，或者我是 X 战警中的某个角色，是这个名字吗？

The X-Men right?

X战警对吧？

Now in fact, this may come as a surprise to you, I don't have ESP, I'm not a character out of the X-Men, and so you can't actually see brain waves emitting from my head, and my reasoning doesn't affect your reasoning.

事实上，这可能会让你感到惊讶，我没有超能力，我不是X战警中的角色，所以你实际上看不到我头上发出的脑电波，我的推理不会影响你的推理。

So if I did reason that way, and chose Beta, I'm not going to affect your choice one way or the other.

因此，如果我确实按照这种方式推理并选择了 Beta，我不会以任何方式影响您的选择。

That's the first thing that's wrong with that reasoning.

这是这个推理的第一个错误。

What else is wrong with that reasoning?

这个推理还有什么问题呢？

Yeah, that guy down here.

是的，就是下面那个人。

Student: Well, the second that you choose Beta then someone's going - it's in someone's best interest to take advantage of it.

学生：嗯，当你选择 Beta 版时，有人就会选择——利用它符合某人的最大利益。

Professor Ben Polak: All right, so someone's going to take advantage of me, but even more than that, an even stronger argument: that's true, but even a stronger argument.

本·波拉克教授：好吧，所以有人会利用我，但更重要的是，还有一个更有力的论据：这是真的，但甚至是一个更有力的论据。

Well how about this?

嗯，这个怎么样？

Even if I was that guy in the X-Men or the Matrix or whatever it was, who could reason his way into making people do things.

即使我是《X战警》或《黑客帝国》或其他什么电影中的那个人，他也能通过推理让人们做事。

Even if I could make everyone in the room choose Beta by the force of my brain waves, what should I then do?

就算我可以通过脑电波的力量让在场的所有人都选择贝塔，那我该怎么办呢？

I should choose Alpha.

我应该选择阿尔法。

If these are my payoffs I should go ahead and choose Alpha because that way I end up getting 3.

如果这些是我的回报，我应该继续选择 Alpha，因为这样我最终会得到 3。

So there's two things wrong with the argument.

所以这个论点有两点错误。

One, there's this magical reasoning aspect, my reasoning is controlling your actions.

第一，有一个神奇的推理方面，我的推理正在控制你的行为。

That doesn't happen in the real world.

这在现实世界中不会发生。

And two, even if that was the case I'd do better to myself choose Alpha.

第二，即使是这种情况，我也会更好地选择阿尔法。

So, nevertheless, there's an element of truth in what I just said.

所以，尽管如此，我刚才所说的还是有一定道理的。

It's the fact that there's an element of truth in it that makes it seem like a good argument.

事实上，其中有一定的真实性，这使得它看起来像是一个很好的论点。

The element of truth is this.

真理的要素就是这样。

It is true that by both choosing Alpha we both ended up with B-'s.

确实，我们都选择了 Alpha，最终都得到了 B-。

We both end up with payoffs of 0, rather than payoffs of 1.

我们最终的收益都是 0，而不是 1。

It is true that by both choosing, by both following this lesson and not choosing the dominated strategy Beta, we ended up with payoffs, (0,0), that were bad.

确实，通过遵循这一教训并且不选择占优策略 Beta，我们最终得到了 (0,0) 的回报，这很糟糕。

And that's probably the second lesson of the class.

这可能是本堂课的第二课。

So Lesson 2, and this lesson probably wouldn't be worth stating, if it wasn't for sort of a century of thought and economics that said the opposite.

因此，如果不是一个世纪的思想和经济学提出了相反的观点，第二课和这一课可能不值得一提。

So rational choice [in this case, people not choosing a dominated strategy; people choosing a dominant strategy] rational choice can lead to outcomes that - what do Americans call this?-- that " suck ." If you want a more technical term for that (and you remember this from Economics 115), it can lead to outcomes that are "inefficient," that are "Pareto inefficient," but "suck" will do for today.

所以理性选择[在这种情况下，人们不选择占优策略；人们选择主导策略]理性选择可能会导致结果——美国人称之为什么？——“糟糕”。如果你想要一个更专业的术语（你记得经济学 115 中的这一点），它可能会导致“低效”的结果，即“帕累托低效”，但“糟糕”对于今天来说就足够了。

Rational choices by rational players, can lead to bad outcomes.

理性参与者的理性选择可能会导致不良结果。

So this is a famous example for this reason.

因此，这是一个著名的例子。

It's a good illustration of this point.

这很好地说明了这一点。

It's a famous example.

这是一个著名的例子。

What's the name of this example, somebody?

有人知道这个例子叫什么名字吗？

This is called Prisoner's Dilemma .

这就是所谓的囚徒困境。

How many of you have heard of the Prisoner's Dilemma before?

你们中有多少人以前听说过囚徒困境？

Most of you saw it in 115, why is it called the Prisoner's Dilemma?

大多数人都在115看过，为什么叫囚徒困境？

Yes, the guy here in orange.

是的，就是这里穿橙色衣服的那个人。

That's okay; he can just point at you that's fine.

没关系；他可以指着你就可以了。

Student: I think it's whether or not the prisoner's cooperate in the sentence they have, and if they kind of rat out the other person, then they can have less; but if both rat out, then they like end up losing large scale.

学生：我认为这取决于囚犯是否配合他们所受的刑罚，如果他们出卖了另一个人，那么他们可以少受刑罚；但如果双方都背叛，那么他们最终可能会遭受大规模损失。

Professor Ben Polak: Good, so in the standard story you've got these two crooks, or two accused crooks, and they're in separate cells and they're being interviewed separately--kept apart--and they're both told that if neither of them rats the other guy out, they'll go to jail for say a year.

本·波拉克教授：很好，所以在标准故事中，有两个骗子，或者两个被指控的骗子，他们被关在不同的牢房里，分别接受审讯——分开——他们都被告知，如果他们都不出卖另一个人，他们就会被关进监狱一年。

If they both rat each other out, they'll end up in jail for two years, But if you rat the other guy out and he doesn't rat you out, then you will go home free and he'll go to jail for five years.

如果他们都互相出卖对方，他们最终会入狱两年，但如果你出卖另一个人，而他没有出卖你，那么你会自由回家，而他会入狱五年。

Put that all down and you pretty quickly see that, regardless whether the other guy rats you or not, you're better off ratting him out.

把这一切都放下，你很快就会发现，无论对方是否背叛你，你最好还是背叛他。

Now, if you have never seen that Prisoner's Dilemma, you can see it pretty much every night on a show called Law & Order .

现在，如果您从未见过囚徒困境，那么您几乎每天晚上都可以在名为“法律与秩序”的节目中看到它。

How many of you have seen Law & Order ?

有多少人看过《法律与秩序》？

If you haven't seen Law & Order , the way to see Law & Order is to go to a random TV set, at a random time, and turn on a random channel.

如果您还没有看过《法律与秩序》，那么观看《法律与秩序》的方法就是在随机的时间打开随机的电视机并打开随机的频道。

This happens in every single episode, so much so that if any of you actually - I mean this might actually be true at Yale--but if you any of you or the TV guys: if any of you know the guy who writes the plots for this, have him come to the class (so I guess to see the video now) and we get some better plot lines in there.

这种情况在每一集中都会发生，以至于如果你们中的任何一个人——我的意思是这在耶鲁大学可能是真的——但是如果你们中的任何一个人或电视工作人员：如果你们中的任何一个人知道为此编写情节的人，请让他来上课（所以我想现在就看视频），我们会在那里得到一些更好的情节。

But, of course, that's not the only example.

但是，当然，这不是唯一的例子。

The grade game and this is not the only example.

等级游戏这并不是唯一的例子。

There are lots of examples of Prisoner's Dilemmas out there.

囚徒困境的例子有很多。

Let's try and find some other ones.

让我们尝试找到其他一些。

So how many of you have roommates in your college?

那么你们大学里有多少人有室友呢？

How many of you have roommates?

你们有多少人有室友？

Most of you have roommates right?

你们大多数人都有室友吧？

So I'm guessing now, I won't make you show your hands, because it's probably embarrassing, but what is the state of your dorm rooms, your shared dorm rooms, at the end of the semester or the end of the school year?

所以我现在猜，我不会让你举手，因为这可能会很尴尬，但是在学期结束或学年结束时，你们的宿舍、你们的共用宿舍的状况如何？

So I'm just guessing, having been in a few of these things over the years, that by the end of the semester, or certainly by the end of the school year, the state of the average Yale dorm room is quite disgusting.

所以我只是猜测，多年来经历过一些这样的事情，到学期结束时，或者肯定到学年结束时，耶鲁大学宿舍的平均状况是相当恶心的。

Why is it disgusting?

为何令人厌恶？

It's disgusting because people don't tidy up.

这很恶心，因为人们不整理东西。

They don't clean up those bits of pizza and bits of chewed bread and cheese, but why don't they tidy up?

他们不会清理那些披萨碎片、咀嚼过的面包和奶酪碎片，但他们为什么不清理干净呢？

Well let's just work it out.

好吧，让我们来解决一下。

What would you like to happen if you're sharing a dorm room?

如果你们共用一间宿舍，你希望发生什么？

You'd like to have the other guy tidy up, right?

你想让另一个人收拾一下，对吗？

The best thing for you is to have the other guy tidy up and the worst thing for you is to tidy up for the other guy.

对你来说最好的事情就是让别人收拾，对你来说最糟糕的事情就是帮别人收拾。

But now work it out: it's a Prisoner's Dilemma.

但现在解决这个问题：这是一个囚徒困境。

If the other guy doesn't tidy up, you're best off not tidying up either, because the last thing you want is to be tidying up for the other guy.

如果另一个人不收拾，你最好也不收拾，因为你最不想做的就是为另一个人收拾。

And if the other guy does tidy up, hey the room's clean, who cares?

如果另一个人确实打扫干净了，嘿，房间很干净，谁在乎呢？

So either way, you're not going to tidy up and you end up with a typical Yale dorm room.

因此，无论哪种方式，你都不会打扫卫生，最终会得到一个典型的耶鲁大学宿舍。

Am I being unfair?

难道我不公平吗？

Are your dorm rooms all perfect?

你的宿舍都完美吗？

This may be a gender thing but we're not going to go there.

这可能是一个性别问题，但我们不会这么做。

So there are lots of Prisoner's Dilemmas out there, anyone got any other examples?

囚徒困境有很多，有人还有其他例子吗？

Other examples?

其他例子？

I didn't quite hear that, sorry.

我没听清楚，抱歉。

Let's try and get a mike on it so we can really hear it.

让我们尝试在上面安装一个麦克风，这样我们就能真正听到它的声音。

Professor Ben Polak: Okay, in divorce struggles, okay.

本·波拉克教授：好吧，在离婚斗争中，好吧。

You're too young to be worrying about such things but never mind.

你还太年轻，不用担心这些事情，但没关系。

Yeah, okay, that's a good example.

是的，好吧，这是一个很好的例子。

All right, hiring lawyers, bringing in big guns.

好吧，聘请律师，请来大佬。

What about an Economics example?

举个经济学的例子怎么样？

What about firms who are competing in prices?

那么那些进行价格竞争的公司呢？

Both firms have an incentive to undercut the other firm, driving down profits for both.

两家公司都有削弱另一家公司的动机，从而降低双方的利润。

The last thing you want is to have the other firm undercut you, in an attempt to push prices down.

您最不想看到的就是另一家公司以低于您的价格试图压低价格。

That's good for us the consumers, but bad for the firm, bad for industry profit.

这对我们消费者有利，但对公司不利，对行业利润不利。

What remedies do we see?

我们看到什么补救措施？

We'll come back to this later on in the class, but let's have a preview.

我们稍后会在课堂上讨论这个问题，但让我们先预览一下。

So what remedies do we see in society for Prisoner's Dilemmas?

那么，对于囚徒困境，我们在社会上看到了什么补救措施呢？

What kind of remedies do we see?

我们看到什么样的补救措施？

Let me try and get the guy here right in front.

让我试着把那家伙带到前面。

Professor Ben Polak: Collusion; so firms could collude.

本·波拉克教授：共谋；因此公司可能会串通。

So what prevents them from colluding?

那么是什么阻止他们串通一气呢？

One thing they could do, presumably, is they could write a contract, these firms.

据推测，他们可以做的一件事是，这些公司可以签订一份合同。

They could say I won't lower my prices if you don't lower your prices, and they could put this contract in with the pricy lawyer, who's taking a day off from the divorce court, and that would secure that they wouldn't lower prices on each other.

他们可以说，如果你不降低价格，我就不会降低价格，他们可以把这份合同交给那位在离婚法庭请一天假的昂贵律师，这样就可以确保他们不会互相降低价格。

Is that right?

是这样吗？

So why wouldn't that work?

那么为什么这行不通呢？

Why wouldn't writing a contract here work?

为什么在这里写合同不起作用？

It's against the law.

这是违法的。

It's an illegal contract.

这是一份非法合同。

What about you with your roommates?

你和你的室友呢？

How many of you have a written contract, stuck with a magnet on the fridge, telling you, when you're supposed to tidy up.

你们中有多少人有一份书面合同，用磁铁贴在冰箱上，告诉您什么时候应该收拾干净。

Very few of you.

你们中的人很少。

Why do you manage to get some cooperation between you and your roommates even without a written contract?

为什么你和你的室友在没有书面合同的情况下仍能取得一些合作？

Professor Ben Polak: Well it probably is legally enforceable actually.

本·波拉克教授：嗯，实际上它可能在法律上是可执行的。

This guy says not, but it probably is legally enforceable.

这家伙说不是，但这可能是法律上可以强制执行的。

He probably could have a written contract about tidying up.

他可能可以签订一份关于整理的书面合同。

The woman in here.

这里的女人。

Professor Ben Polak: Yeah, so maybe even among your roommates, maybe you don't need a contract because you can manage to achieve the same ends, by the fact that you're going to be interacting with the same person, over and over again during your time at Yale.

本·波拉克教授：是的，所以也许即使在你的室友之间，也许你也不需要合同，因为你可以设法实现相同的目标，因为你在耶鲁大学期间将与同一个人一遍又一遍地互动。

So we'll come back and revisit the idea that repeating an interaction may allow you to obtain cooperation, but we're not going to come back to that until after the mid-term.

因此，我们将回过头来重新审视重复互动可能会让您获得合作的想法，但直到中期之后我们才会回到这一点。

That's way down the road but we'll get there.

那是很远的路，但我们会到达那里。

Now one person earlier on had mentioned something about communication.

之前有人提到过一些关于沟通的事情。

I think it was somebody in the front, right?

我想应该是有人在前面吧？

So let's just think about this a second.

让我们考虑一下这个问题。

Is communication the problem here?

沟通是这里的问题吗？

Is the reason people behave badly--I don't know "badly"--people choose Alpha in this game here, is it the fact that they can't communicate?

人们行为不好的原因——我不知道“不好”——人们在这个游戏中选择阿尔法，是因为他们无法沟通吗？

Suppose you'd been able to talk before hand, so suppose the woman here whose name was…?

假设你事先能够交谈，那么假设这里的女人的名字是……？

Professor Ben Polak: …Mary, had been able to talk to the person next to her whose name is…?

本·波拉克教授：……玛丽，能和她旁边的那个叫……的人说话吗？

Professor Ben Polak: Erica.

本·波拉克教授：艾丽卡。

And they said, suppose we know we're going to be paired together, I'll choose Beta if you choose Beta.

他们说，假设我们知道我们要配对，如果你选择贝塔，我就选择贝塔。

Would that work?

那行得通吗？

Why wouldn't that work?

为什么那不起作用？

Professor Ben Polak: There's no enforcement.

Ben Polak 教授：没有强制执行。

So it isn't a failure of communication per se.

所以这并不是沟通本身的失败。

A contract is more then communication, a contract is communication with teeth.

合同不仅仅是沟通，合同是用牙齿进行的沟通。

It actually changes the payoffs.

它实际上改变了回报。

So I could communicate with Alice on agreements, but back home I'm going to go ahead and choose Alpha anyway; all the better if he's choosing Beta.

这样我就可以与 Alice 就协议进行沟通，但回到家后我还是会选择 Alpha；如果他选择 Beta 那就更好了。

So we'll come back and talk about more of these things as the course goes on, but let's just come back to the two we forgot there: so the collusion case and the case back in Law & Order with the prisoners in the cell.

因此，随着课程的继续，我们会回来讨论更多这些事情，但让我们回到我们忘记的两件事：勾结案和《法律与秩序》中囚犯关在牢房里的案件。

How do they enforce their contracts?

他们如何执行合同？

They don't always rat each other out and some firms manage to collude?

他们并不总是相互出卖，有些公司设法串通一气？

How do they manage to enforce those contracts?

他们如何设法执行这些合同？

Those agreements, how are they enforced?

这些协议如何执行？

Professor Ben Polak: It could be they trust each other, although if you trust a crook that's not…

本·波拉克教授：他们可能互相信任，但如果你信任一个骗子，那就不是……

What else could it be?

还能是什么？

The guy here again with the beard, yeah.

那个留胡子的家伙又来了，是的。

Professor Ben Polak: Well, but this is the game.

本·波拉克教授：嗯，但这就是游戏。

So here's the game.

所以这就是游戏。

Student: No, but the pay, the way they value, the way of valuing each--

学生：不，但是薪水，他们的评价方式，评价每个人的方式——

Professor Ben Polak: Okay, so the payoffs may be different.

Ben Polak 教授：好的，所以回报可能会有所不同。

I have something simpler in mind.

我心里有一些更简单的事情。

Suppose they have a written contract, or even an unwritten contract, what enforces the contract for colluding firms or crooks in jail?

假设他们有一份书面合同，甚至是一份不成文合同，那么对于串通一气的公司或在监狱里的骗子来说，什么可以强制执行合同呢？

Yeah.

是的。

Student: Gets off Scott free in five years when the other guy gets out, he might run into a situation where [inaudible]

学生：五年后让斯科特自由，当另一个人脱身时，他可能会遇到[听不清]的情况

Professor Ben Polak: Yeah, so a short version of that is, it's a different kind of contract.

本·波拉克教授：是的，简单来说，这是一种不同类型的合同。

If you rat someone out in jail, someone puts a contract out on you.

如果你在监狱里告发某人，就会有人与你签订合同。

Tony Soprano enforces those contracts.

托尼·索普拉诺执行这些合同。

That's the purpose of Tony Soprano.

这就是托尼·索普拉诺的目的。

It's the purpose of the mafia.

这就是黑手党的目的。

The reason the mafia thrives in countries where it's hard to write legal contracts--let's say some new parts of the former Soviet Union or some parts of Africa--the reason the mafia thrives in those environments, is that it substitutes for the law and enforces both legal and illegal contracts.

黑手党在难以签订合法合同的国家（比如前苏联的一些新地区或非洲的某些地区）蓬勃发展的原因是，黑手党在这些环境中蓬勃发展，因为它取代了法律并执行合法和非法合同。

So I promised a while ago now, that we were going to come back and look at this game under some other possible payoffs.

所以我不久前就承诺过，我们会回来看看这款游戏的其他一些可能的回报。

So I wasn't under a contract but let's come back and fulfill that promise anyway.

所以我没有签订合同，但无论如何我们还是要回来履行这个承诺。

So we're going to revisit, if not the Divinity School, at least in people who have more morality than my friends up in the business school.

因此，我们将重新审视，即使不是神学院，至少是那些比我在商学院的朋友们更有道德的人。

We're going to ask for the same grade game we played at the beginning.

我们将要求我们玩一开始玩的同一等级的游戏。

What would happen if player's payoffs looked different?

如果玩家的收益看起来不同会发生什么？

So these are "possible payoffs (2)." I'll give these a name..

所以这些是“可能的回报（2）”。我会给这些名字..

We called the other guys "evil gits." We'll call these guys "indignant angels." I can never spell indignant..

我们称其他人为“邪恶的混蛋”。我们称这些人为“愤怒的天使”。我永远无法表达愤怒..

Is that roughly right?

大致是这样吗？

Does that look right?

看起来合适吗？

I think it's right.

我认为这是对的。

In-dig-nant isn't it: indignant.

In-dig-nant 不是吗：愤怒。

Indignant angels, and we'll see why in a second.

愤怒的天使们，我们马上就会明白为什么。

So here are their payoffs and once again the basic structure of the game hasn't changed.

这是他们的回报，游戏的基本结构再次没有改变。

It's still I'm choosing Alpha and Beta, my pair is choosing Alpha and Beta, and the grades are the same as they were before.

还是我选Alpha和Beta，我那对选Alpha和Beta，成绩和以前一样。

They're hidden by that board but you saw them before.

它们被那块板隐藏了，但你以前见过它们。

But this time the payoffs are as follows.

但这一次的回报如下。

On the lead diagonal we still have (0,0) and (1,1).

在主对角线上，我们仍然有 (0,0) 和 (1,1)。

But now the grades here are -1--I'm sorry--the payoffs are -1 and -3, and here they're -3 and -1.

但现在这里的成绩是-1——对不起——回报是-1和-3，而这里是-3和-1。

What's the idea here?

这是什么想法？

These aren't the only other possible payoffs.

这些并不是唯一的其他可能的回报。

It's just an idea.

这只是一个想法。

Suppose I get an A and my pair gets a C, then sure I get that initial payoff of 3, but unfortunately I can't sleep at night because I'm feeling so guilty.

假设我得到了 A，而我的配对得到了 C，那么我肯定会得到 3 的初始收益，但不幸的是我晚上睡不着，因为我感到非常内疚。

I have some kind of moral conscience and after I've subtracted off my guilt feelings I end up at -1, so think of this as guilt: some notion of morality.

我有某种道德良知，在减去我的内疚感后，我的结果是-1，所以把这看作是内疚：某种道德观念。

Conversely, if I chose a Beta and my pair chooses an Alpha, so I end up with a C and she ends up with an A, then you know I have a bad time explaining to my parents why I got a C in this class, and I have to say about how I'm going to be president anyway.

相反，如果我选择了贝塔，而我的搭档选择了阿尔法，那么我最终得到了 C，她最终得到了 A，那么你知道我很难向我的父母解释为什么我在这门课上得到了 C，而且我不得不说我将如何成为总统。

But then, in addition, I feel indignation against this person.

但除此之外，我对这个人感到愤慨。

It isn't just that I got a C; I got a C because she made me get a C, so that moral indignation takes us down to -3.

我不仅得到了C，而且还得到了C。我得了 C，因为她让我得了 C，所以道德义愤把我们的分数降到了-3。

So again, I'm not claiming these are the only other possible payoffs, but just another possibility to look at.

再说一遍，我并不是说这些是唯一可能的回报，而只是另一种值得关注的可能性。

So suppose these were the payoffs in the game.

所以假设这些就是游戏中的回报。

Again, suspend disbelief a second and imagine that these actually are your payoffs, and let me ask you what you would have done in this case.

再次，暂时不要怀疑，想象一下这些实际上是你的回报，让我问你在这种情况下你会做什么。

So think about it a second.

所以请考虑一下。

Write it down.

把它写下来。

Write down what you're going to do on the corner of your notepad.

在记事本的一角写下您要做什么。

Just write down an Alpha or Beta: what you're going to do here.

只需写下 Alpha 或 Beta：您要在这里做什么。

You're not all writing.

你不都是在写作。

The guy in the England shirt isn't writing.

那个穿英格兰队球衣的家伙没有写信。

You've got to be writing if you are in an England shirt.

如果你穿着英格兰球衣，你就必须写信。

Show it to your neighbor.

把它展示给你的邻居。

Let's have a show of hands, again I want you to keep your hands up so that Jude can see it now.

让我们举手，我再次希望你们举起手，以便裘德现在可以看到。

So how many of you chose Alpha in this case?

那么在这种情况下，你们中有多少人选择了 Alpha？

Raise your hands.

举起你们的手。

Come on, don't be shy.

来吧，别害羞。

Raise your hands.

举起你们的手。

How many chose Beta in this case?

在这种情况下有多少人选择了 Beta？

How many people abstained?

有多少人弃权？

Not allowed to abstain: let's try it again.

不允许弃权：我们再试一次。

Alpha in this case?

在这种情况下阿尔法？

No abstentions here.

这里没有弃权票。

Beta in this case?

在这种情况下是贝塔吗？

So we're roughly splitting the room.

所以我们大致把房间分开了。

Someone who chose Alpha?

有人选择了阿尔法吗？

Again: raise the Alpha's again.

再次：再次提高 Alpha 值。

Let me get this guy here.

让我把这个人带到这里来。

So why did you choose Alpha?

那你为什么选择阿尔法呢？

Student: You would minimize your losses; you'd get 0 or -1 instead of -3 or 1.

学生：你会尽量减少你的损失；你会得到 0 或 -1 而不是 -3 或 1。

Professor Ben Polak: All right, so this gentleman is saying -

本·波拉克教授：好吧，这位先生是说 -

Professor Ben Polak: Right, so this gentleman's saying, a good reason for choosing Alpha in this game is it's less risky.

Ben Polak 教授：是的，所以这位先生说，在这个游戏中选择 Alpha 的一个很好的理由是它的风险较小。

The worst case scenario is less bad, is a way of saying it.

从某种意义上说，最坏的情况还没有那么糟糕。

What about somebody who chose Beta?

那么选择 Beta 的人呢？

A lot of you chose Beta.

你们中的很多人都选择了 Beta。

Let's have a show of hands on the Beta's again.

让我们再次就 Beta 版举手。

Let me see the Beta's again.

让我再看看 Beta 版。

So, raise your hands.

所以，请举起手来。

Can we get the woman here?

我们能把那个女人叫到这里来吗？

Can we ask her why she chose Beta?

我们能问她为什么选择Beta吗？

Student: Because if you choose Alpha, the best case scenario is you get 0, so that's -

学生：因为如果你选择Alpha，最好的情况是你得到0，所以那就是——

Professor Ben Polak: Okay good, that's a good counter argument.

Ben Polak 教授：好的，这是一个很好的反驳论据。

So the gentleman here was looking at the worst case scenario, and the woman here was looking at the best case scenario.

所以这里的绅士考虑的是最坏的情况，而这里的女士考虑的是最好的情况。

And the best case scenario here looks like getting a 1 here.

最好的情况是得到 1。

Now, let's ask a different question.

现在，让我们问一个不同的问题。

Is one of the strategies dominated in this game?

这场比赛中是否有一种策略占主导地位？

No, neither strategy is dominated.

不，这两种策略都不占主导地位。

Let's just check.

我们来检查一下。

If my pair chooses Alpha, then my choosing Alpha yields 0, Beta -3: so Alpha would be better.

如果我的配对选择 Alpha，那么我选择 Alpha 的结果是 0，Beta -3：所以 Alpha 会更好。

But if my pair chooses Beta then Alpha yields -1, Beta yields 1: in this case Beta would be better.

但如果我的配对选择 Beta，那么 Alpha 会产生 -1，Beta 会产生 1：在这种情况下 Beta 会更好。

So Alpha in this case is better against Alpha, and Beta is better against Beta, but neither dominates each other.

所以在这种情况下，Alpha 更好地对抗 Alpha，而 Beta 更好地对抗 Beta，但两者都不占主导地位。

So here's a game where we just change the payoffs.

所以这是一个我们只改变收益的游戏。

We have the same basic structure, the same outcomes, but we imagine people cared about different things and we end up with a very different answer.

我们有相同的基本结构，相同的结果，但我们想象人们关心不同的事情，我们最终会得到一个非常不同的答案。

In the first game, it was kind of clear that we should choose Alpha and here it's not at all clear what we can do--what we should do.

在第一场比赛中，很明显我们应该选择阿尔法，而在这里我们根本不清楚我们能做什么——我们应该做什么。

In fact, this kind of game has a name and we'll revisit it later on in the semester.

事实上，这种游戏有一个名字，我们将在本学期晚些时候重新讨论它。

This kind of game is called a "coordination problem." We'll talk about coordination problems later on.

这种游戏被称为“协调问题”。稍后我们会讨论协调问题。

The main lesson I want to get out of this for today, is a simpler lesson.

今天我想从中学到的主要教训是一个更简单的教训。

It's the lesson that payoffs matter.

这是一个教训：回报很重要。

We change the payoffs, we change what people cared about, and we get a very different game with a very different outcome.

我们改变了回报，我们改变了人们关心的事情，我们得到了一个非常不同的游戏和一个非常不同的结果。

So the basic lesson is that payoffs matter, but let me say it a different way.

所以基本的教训是回报很重要，但让我换个方式说。

So without giving away my age too much--I guess it will actually--when I was a kid growing up in England, there was this guy - there was a pop star--a slightly post-punk pop star called Joe Jackson, who none of you would have heard of, because you were all about ten years old, my fault.

所以，不要过多透露我的年龄——我想实际上会——当我还是个在英国长大的孩子时，有一个人——有一位流行歌星——一位有点后朋克的流行歌星，名叫乔·杰克逊，你们谁都不会听说过他，因为你们都大约十岁，这是我的错。

And Joe Jackson had this song which had the lyric, something like, you can't get what you want unless you know what you want .

乔·杰克逊有一首歌曲，歌词是这样的，除非你知道自己想要什么，否则你无法得到你想要的东西。

As a statement of logic, that's false.

从逻辑上来说，这是错误的。

It could be that what you want just drops into your lap without you knowing about it.

可能你想要的东西就在你不知情的情况下掉到了你的腿上。

But as a statement of strategy, it's a pretty good idea.

但作为战略声明，这是一个非常好的主意。

It's a good idea to try and figure out what your goals are--what you're trying to achieve--before you go ahead and analyze the game.

在继续分析游戏之前，尝试弄清楚您的目标是什么（您想要实现什么）是个好主意。

So payoffs matter.

所以回报很重要。

Let's put it in his version.

让我们把它放在他的版本中。

"You can't get what you want, till you know what you want."

“除非你知道自己想要什么，否则你无法得到你想要的东西。”

Be honest, how many of you have heard of Joe Jackson?

老实说，你们中有多少人听说过乔·杰克逊？

That makes me feel old, oh man, okay.

这让我感觉自己老了，哦天哪，好吧。

Goes down every year.

每年都会下降。

So far we've looked at this game as played by people who are evil gits, and we've looked at this game as played by people who are indignant angels.

到目前为止，我们已经把这个游戏看作是由邪恶的混蛋玩的，我们也把这个游戏看作是由愤怒的天使玩的。

But we can do something more interesting.

但我们可以做一些更有趣的事情。

We can imagine playing this game on a sort of mix and match.

我们可以想象以某种混合搭配的方式玩这个游戏。

For example, imagine--this shouldn't be hard for most of you--imagine that you are an evil git, but you know that the person you're playing against is an indignant angel.

例如，想象一下——这对你们大多数人来说应该不难——想象一下你是一个邪恶的混蛋，但你知道你的对手是一个愤怒的天使。

So again, imagine that you know you're an evil git, but you know that the person you're playing against or with, is an indignant angel.

再次，想象一下，你知道自己是一个邪恶的混蛋，但你知道你的对手或对手是一个愤怒的天使。

What should you do in that case?

在这种情况下你应该做什么？

What should we do?

我们应该做什么？

Who thinks you should choose Alpha in that case?

谁认为在这种情况下你应该选择 Alpha？

Let's pan the room again if we can.

如果可以的话，让我们再次平移房间。

Keep your hands up so that you can see.

举起双手以便您能看到。

Who thinks you should choose Beta in that case?

在这种情况下谁认为你应该选择 Beta？

Who's abstaining here?

这里谁弃权？

Not allowed to abstain in this class: it's a complete no-no. Okay, we'll allow some abstention in the first day but not beyond today.

不允许在这门课上弃权：这是完全不允许的。好的，我们会在第一天允许一些弃权，但今天之后就不会了。

Let's have a look.

我们来看看吧。

Let's analyze this combined game.

我们来分析一下这个组合游戏。

So what does this game look like?

那么这款游戏到底长什么样子呢？

It's an evil git versus an indignant angel and we can put the payoff matrix together by combining the matrices we had before.

这是邪恶的混蛋与愤怒的天使的对决，我们可以通过组合之前的矩阵来组合收益矩阵。

So in this case, this is me as always.

所以在这种情况下，这就是我一如既往的。

This is my pair, the column player.

这是我的搭档，专栏球员。

My payoffs are going to be what?

我的回报是什么？

My payoffs are going to be evil-git payoffs, so they come from the matrix up there.

我的收益将是邪恶的 git 收益，所以它们来自上面的矩阵。

So if someone will just help me reading it off there.

所以如果有人能帮我读一下的话。

That's a 0, a 3,a -1, and a 1.

这是一个 0、一个 3、一个 -1 和一个 1。

My opponent or my partner's payoffs come from the indignant angel matrix.

我的对手或我的伙伴的回报来自愤怒的天使矩阵。

So they come from here.

所以他们来自这里。

There's a 0, a -3, a -1, and a 1.

有一个 0、一个 -3、一个 -1 和一个 1。

Everyone see how I constructed that?

大家明白我是如何构建的吗？

So just to remind you again, the first payoff is the row player's payoff, in this case the evil git.

所以再次提醒你，第一个收益是排玩家的收益，在本例中是邪恶的混蛋。

And the second payoff is the column player's payoff, in this case the indignant angel.

第二个回报是专栏玩家的回报，在本例中是愤怒的天使。

Now we've set it up as a matrix, let's try again that question I asked before.

现在我们已经将其设置为矩阵，让我们再试一次我之前问过的问题。

Suppose you're the row player here.

假设你是这里的划船运动员。

You're the evil git.

你就是那个邪恶的混蛋。

Those are your payoffs.

这些就是你的回报。

You're playing against an indignant angel, what would you do?

你面对的是一个愤怒的天使，你会怎么做？

So once again, no abstentions this time: who would choose Alpha?

所以，这次没有弃权：谁会选择 Alpha？

Let's have a show of hands again, keep your hands up a second.

让我们再次举手，请举手。

Who would choose Beta?

谁会选择贝塔？

Very few Beta's, but mostly Alpha's.

Beta 版很少，但大部分是 Alpha 版。

Alpha, I think, is the right answer here but why?

我认为 Alpha 是正确的答案，但为什么呢？

Why is Alpha the right answer here?

为什么阿尔法是这里的正确答案？

Yeah, can we get this guy here?

是的，我们能把这个人带到这里吗？

Professor Ben Polak: Good.

本·波拉克教授： 很好。

Actually nothing has changed from the game we started with.

事实上，与我们开始时的游戏相比，没有任何改变。

The fact that I changed the other guy's payoffs didn't matter here.

我改变了其他人的收益这一事实在这里并不重要。

Alpha was dominant before--it dominated Beta before--and it still dominates Beta.

Alpha 曾经占据主导地位——它曾经统治过 Beta——而且现在仍然统治着 Beta。

Let's just check.

我们来检查一下。

If my opponent chooses Alpha and I choose Alpha, I get 0; Beta, I get -1.

如果我的对手选择 Alpha 而我选择 Alpha，我得到 0；贝塔，我得到-1。

So Alpha would be better.

所以阿尔法会更好。

If my opponent chooses Beta and I choose Alpha, I get 3; Beta, I get 1.

如果我的对手选择 Beta，我选择 Alpha，我得到 3；贝塔，我得到 1。

Once again Alpha is better.

Alpha 再次变得更好。

So as before, Alpha does better than Beta for me, regardless of what the other person does.

所以和以前一样，对我来说，Alpha 比 Beta 做得更好，无论对方做什么。

Alpha dominates Beta.

Alpha 主导 Beta。

What was the first lesson of the class?

这堂课的第一课是什么？

Shout it out please.

请大声喊出来。

Right, so you should all have been choosing in this game, you all should have chosen Alpha.

对啊，所以这个游戏你们都应该选择，你们都应该选择Alpha。

So the one person who didn't we'll let him off for today.

所以今天我们就放过那个没有这么做的人。

So Alpha dominates Beta here.

所以这里 Alpha 主导了 Beta。

Let's flip things around.

让我们扭转一下局面。

Suppose now--harder to imagine, but let's try it--suppose now that you are an indignant angel and you're playing against, and you know this, you're playing against an evil git.

现在假设——很难想象，但让我们尝试一下——假设现在你是一个愤怒的天使，你正在和一个邪恶的混蛋对抗，你知道这一点。

You're an indignant angel, so you have the payoffs that are still there and you're playing against an evil git, which is the payoffs we covered up but we'll reproduce them.

你是一个愤怒的天使，所以你的回报仍然存在，而你正在对抗一个邪恶的混蛋，这是我们掩盖的回报，但我们会重现它们。

Let's produce that matrix.

让我们生成该矩阵。

By the way, if this is beginning to sound like a wrestling match, I don't mean it to.

顺便说一句，如果这听起来像一场摔跤比赛，我并不是故意的。

Let's try here: Alpha, Beta, Alpha, Beta, pair, me.

让我们试试这里：阿尔法，贝塔，阿尔法，贝塔，配对，我。

So my payoffs this time, are the indignant angel payoffs.

所以我这次的回报，是愤怒的天使的回报。

So mine are 0, -1, -3, and 1.

所以我的是 0、-1、-3 和 1。

And my opponent's payoffs are what would have been my payoffs before.

我对手的收益就是我之前的收益。

They come from the other matrix.

它们来自另一个矩阵。

Let's just show you it.

让我们向您展示一下。

They come from this matrix.

他们来自这个矩阵。

So they're going to be 0, -1, 3, 1.

所以它们将是 0、-1、3、1。

I took the second payoff from that matrix and made it the second payoff in this matrix.

我从该矩阵中取出第二个收益，并将其作为该矩阵中的第二个收益。

Everyone see how I did that?

大家看到我是怎么做到的吗？

Once again, the row player is the first payoff and the column player is the other payoff.

再次，行玩家是第一个收益，列玩家是另一个收益。

What should you do in this case?

在这种情况下你应该做什么？

You're the indignant angel.

你就是那个愤怒的天使。

You're playing against this evil git.

你正在对抗这个邪恶的混蛋。

What should you do?

你应该做什么？

Write down on your notepad what you should do.

在记事本上写下你应该做什么。

Show it to your neighbor so you can't cheat, or you can cheat but you'll be shamed in front of your neighbor.

把它给你的邻居看，这样你就不能作弊，或者你可以作弊，但你会在邻居面前感到羞耻。

Raise your hands.

举起你们的手。

Let Jude see it.

让裘德看看。

Raise your hands and keep them up if you chose Alpha now.

如果你现在选择了阿尔法，请举起你的手并继续举起。

How about if you chose Beta now?

如果您现在选择 Beta 怎么样？

So one or two Beta's, mostly Alpha's.

所以一两个 Beta 版，大部分是 Alpha 版。

Well let's see.

好吧，让我们看看。

Let's reason this through a second.

让我们花点时间来推理一下。

Does my Alpha dominate my Beta?

我的 Alpha 支配我的 Beta 吗？

No, in fact, Alpha doesn't dominate Beta for me.

不，事实上，对我来说，Alpha 并不支配 Beta。

It doesn't dominate Beta.

它并不主导 Beta。

If my pair chooses Alpha then Alpha gets me 0; Beta -3.

如果我的配对选择 Alpha，那么 Alpha 给我 0；贝塔-3。

So Alpha does better.

所以阿尔法做得更好。

But if my pair chooses Beta, then Alpha gets me -1; Beta gets me 1.

但如果我的配对选择 Beta，那么 Alpha 给我 -1；贝塔让我 1。

In this case Beta is better.

在这种情况下，Beta 更好。

As we saw before, Alpha is better against Alpha.

正如我们之前看到的，Alpha 对抗 Alpha 更胜一筹。

Beta is better against Beta.

贝塔比贝塔更好。

There's no dominance going on here.

这里没有统治力。

Nevertheless, at least 90% of you chose Alpha here, and that's the right answer.

尽管如此，至少 90% 的人在这里选择了 Alpha，这是正确的答案。

Why?

为什么？

Why should you choose Alpha here?

为什么要在这里选择Alpha？

Somebody …

有人……

can we get the guy with the beard here?

我们能把那个留胡子的人叫来吗？

Wait for the mike, great.

等一下麦克风，太好了。

Student: We had acknowledged that Alpha is a dominant strategy for my opponent so we must choose based upon, or knowing that my partner is going to choose Alpha.

学生：我们承认阿尔法对我的对手来说是占优策略，所以我们必须基于或知道我的搭档将选择阿尔法来选择。

Professor Ben Polak: Henry.

本·波拉克教授：亨利。

So Henry is saying sure I don't have a dominated strategy.

所以亨利说我肯定没有占优策略。

My Alpha doesn't dominate my Beta.

我的阿尔法并不支配我的贝塔。

But look at my opponent.

但看看我的对手。

My opponent's Alpha dominates her Beta.

我对手的 Alpha 压倒了她的 Beta。

If I choose Alpha and she chooses Alpha to get 0; Beta she gets -1.

如果我选择Alpha，她选择Alpha，则得到0；贝塔她得到-1。

Alpha is better.

阿尔法更好。

If I choose Beta, if she chooses Alpha she gets 3; Beta 1.

如果我选择 Beta，如果她选择 Alpha，她得到 3；贝塔1。

Again Alpha is better.

阿尔法再次更好。

For my opponent, Alpha dominates Beta.

对于我的对手来说，Alpha 压倒了 Beta。

So by thinking about my opponent, by putting myself in my opponent's shoes, I realize that she has a dominant strategy, Alpha.

因此，通过思考我的对手，通过设身处地为对手着想，我意识到她有一个占优策略，阿尔法。

She's going to choose Alpha and my best response against Alpha is to choose Alpha myself.

她将选择阿尔法，而我对阿尔法的最佳回应就是我自己选择阿尔法。

So here, this time, my Alpha does not dominate Beta but my pair's choice of Alpha dominates her choice, her possible choice of Beta.

所以在这里，这一次，我的阿尔法并不主导贝塔，但我对阿尔法的选择主导了她的选择，她可能选择贝塔。

So she will choose Alpha.

所以她会选择Alpha。

And once I know that she's going to choose Alpha, it's clear that I should choose Alpha and get 0 rather than Beta and get -3.

一旦我知道她将选择 Alpha，很明显我应该选择 Alpha 并得到 0，而不是 Beta 并得到 -3。

So I should choose Alpha also.

所以我也应该选择Alpha。

Okay, so now we've seen four different combinations.

好的，现在我们已经看到了四种不同的组合。

We've seen a case where an evil git was playing an evil git; where an indignant angel was playing an indignant angel; and we've seen both the flips of those: the evil git versus the indignant angel; and the indignant angel against the evil git.

我们见过一个邪恶的混蛋扮演一个邪恶的混蛋的例子；一个愤怒的天使正在扮演一个愤怒的天使；我们已经看到了这两种情况的翻转：邪恶的混蛋与愤怒的天使；还有愤怒的天使对抗邪恶的混蛋。

Why are we doing this?

我们为什么要这样做？

Because there's an important lesson here.

因为这里有一个重要的教训。

What's the lesson here?

这里有什么教训？

The lesson is--comes from this game--that a great way to analyze games, a great way to get used to the idea of strategic thinking, perhaps even the essence of strategic thinking, is the ability to put yourself in someone else's shoes, figure out what their payoffs are, and try and figure out what they're going to do.

从这场游戏中得到的教训是，分析游戏的好方法，习惯战略思维理念的好方法，甚至战略思维的本质，就是能够设身处地为别人着想，弄清楚他们的回报是什么，并尝试弄清楚他们将要做什么。

So the big lesson of this game is--I forgot what number we're up too--I guess this is Lesson 4 I think.

所以这个游戏的重要教训是——我也忘记了我们的数字是多少——我想这是第四课。

Lesson 4 is: put yourself in others' shoes and try to figure out what they will do.

第四课是：设身处地为别人着想，试着弄清楚他们会做什么。

In a sense, this is the first difficult lesson of the class.

从某种意义上说，这是这堂课的第一堂难课。

It's easy to spot when a strategy is dominant, more or less.

当某种策略或多或少占据主导地位时，很容易发现。

It's pretty easy to figure out, you have to know about your own payoffs.

这很容易弄清楚，你必须知道自己的回报。

But the hard thing in life, is getting you to come out of your own selves a bit, realizing it's "not all about you." You've got to put yourself in other people's shoes to figure out what they care about and what they're going to try and do, so you can respond well to that.

但生活中最困难的事情是让你走出自我，意识到这“不全​​是关于你的”。你必须设身处地为别人着想，弄清楚他们关心什么以及他们将尝试做什么，这样你才能对此做出良好的反应。

While we're here, let's just mention that things will get more complicated in a world where I don't actually know the payoffs of my opponent.

当我们在这里时，让我们提一下，在我实际上不知道对手的回报的世界中，事情会变得更加复杂。

It's much easier to figure out my own payoffs than to figure out my opponent's payoffs.

计算出我自己的收益比计算出对手的收益要容易得多。

I might not know whether I'm playing someone who's an evil git or an indignant angel.

我可能不知道我扮演的是一个邪恶的混蛋还是一个愤怒的天使。

So I'm going to have to figure out what the odds are of that in doing this exercise.

所以我必须弄清楚在做这个练习时出现这种情况的可能性有多大。

And we're going to come back to that idea too way at the end of the class, but that's getting a bit ahead of ourselves, but we'll get there.

我们也会在课程结束时回到这个想法，但这有点超前了，但我们会到达那里。

Now, it turns out that this game, this Prisoner's Dilemma, with the Alpha's and Beta's, or essentially the same game, has been played many, many, many times in experiments.

现在，事实证明，这个游戏，这个囚徒困境，有阿尔法和贝塔，或者本质上是同一个游戏，已经在实验中玩了很多很多次了。

So out there in the real world--I think we can do this here--out there in the real world when they do these experiments, they find out that roughly 70% of people choose Alpha and roughly 30% choose Beta.

因此，在现实世界中——我认为我们可以在这里做到这一点——在现实世界中，当他们进行这些实验时，他们发现大约 70% 的人选择 Alpha，大约 30% 的人选择 Beta。

Roughly, almost a third choose Beta.

粗略地说，几乎三分之一的人选择 Beta。

What do we think is going on?

我们认为发生了什么？

That's a third of the people who seem to be choosing a dominated strategy …

这是似乎选择主导策略的人的三分之一......

or is it?

或者是吗？

What's going on there?

那里发生了什么事？

Why do you think 30% of people are choosing Beta?

您认为为什么 30% 的人选择 Beta？

Anybody?

有人吗？

Can we catch this guy here?

我们能在这里抓住这个家伙吗？

Student: They might be motivated by the fact that every person who chooses Beta raises the average score.

学生：他们的动机可能是每个选择 Beta 的人都会提高平均分。

Professor Ben Polak: They could be moral people.

本·波拉克教授：他们可能是有道德的人。

So one possibility is: this 30% of people in the real world who choose Beta are just nice people.

所以一种可能是：现实世界中这30%选择Beta的人只是好人。

What else could it be?

还能是什么？

Yeah?

是的？

Student: I know this might be changing the game a little bit, but if you ever expected to play the same game with the partner you have more [inaudible]

学生：我知道这可能会稍微改变游戏，但如果您曾经期望与合作伙伴玩同一个游戏，您就会有更多[听不清]

Professor Ben Polak: All right, they could be thinking they're going to play again.

本·波拉克教授：好吧，他们可能认为他们要再次比赛。

Student: [inaudible] long run payoffs are greater if you choose Beta every time.

学生：[听不清]如果您每次都选择 Beta，长期回报会更大。

Professor Ben Polak: So it could be that they think that this is actually--they haven't understood the experiment and they think this is a multi shot game, not a one shot game, good.

本·波拉克教授：所以他们可能认为这实际上是——他们还没有理解这个实验，他们认为这是一个多镜头游戏，而不是单镜头游戏，很好。

What else could it be?

还能是什么？

What's the simplest explanation?

最简单的解释是什么？

What's the other obvious explanation?

其他明显的解释是什么？

They could just be stupid, right?

他们可能只是愚蠢，对吧？

It could be., Are we allowed to say that in class?

可能是., 我们可以在课堂上这么说吗？

Let's be honest here, when we say experiments in the real world in Game Theory--or the ones you read about in The New York Times--the real world when it comes to experiments in Economics really means undergraduates at the University of Arizona.

老实说，当我们说博弈论中现实世界中的实验（或者你在《纽约时报》上读到的实验）时，现实世界中的经济学实验实际上指的是亚利桑那大学的本科生。

I mean, I'm not making it up.

我的意思是，我不会弥补。

It just does.

确实如此。

They all are.

他们都是。

I don't know anything about …

我对……一无所知

are any of you from Arizona, I don't know.

我不知道你们中有人来自亚利桑那州吗？

I don't know whether the average undergrad at the University of Arizona just has a sunny personality or whether they "spent too long in the sun." I just don't know which it is, right?

我不知道亚利桑那大学的本科生是否只是性格阳光，还是“在阳光下待得太久了”。我只是不知道它是什么，对吗？

We can't really distinguish from this.

对此我们确实无法区分。

How about at Yale.

耶鲁大学怎么样？

What's our numbers here.

我们这里的号码是多少？

How about in this class?

这堂课怎么样？

Do you want to mike your colleague here?

你想给你的同事录音吗？

So 238 at Yale--this is Yale--versus 36.

耶鲁大学（这里是耶鲁大学）有 238 名学生，而耶鲁大学有 36 名学生。

So even at my level of arithmetic that's a lot less than 30%.

所以即使以我的算术水平来说，这个比例也远远低于 30%。

That's more like less than 15%.

这更像是不到 15%。

It's about 15% I guess.

我猜大约是15%。

So 236--I'm sorry 238--chose Alpha, and 36 chose Beta.

所以 236——对不起 238——选择了 Alpha，36 选择了 Beta。

Now there's one more lesson in this class and this is going to be it.

现在这堂课还有一节课，就这样了。

This isn't the end of the class but one more lesson to take home.

这不是课程的结束，而是又一堂值得带回家的课。

You guys are going to be playing games among each other today and until--whatever it is?--December 7, whatever is the end of term.

你们今天将互相玩游戏，直到——无论是什么？——12 月 7 日，无论学期结束是什么时候。

Look around each other.

互相看看周围。

You better get to know each other a bit.

你们最好互相了解一下。

And what did we learn today about you guys?

今天我们从你们身上学到了什么？

The lesson here, Lesson 5, is "Yale students are evil." Be aware of that when you're playing games.

这里的第五课是“耶鲁学生是邪恶的”。当你玩游戏时要注意这一点。

I want to play one more game today in the remaining minutes.

今天我想在剩下的时间里再打一场比赛。

It doesn't matter if we finish a little bit early, but I want to try to get this game at least started.

如果我们提前结束一点也没关系，但我想尝试至少让这场比赛开始。

So do you all have Game #2 in front of you?

那么你们面前有第二场比赛吗？

Just while you're reading that over, can I also make sure you've all got your legal forms and you're going to sign.

当您阅读本文时，我能否确保你们都已拿到法律表格并且要签字。

Don't walk away with your legal forms, we need to get those collected in.

不要带走您的法律表格，我们需要收集这些表格。

So at the end of talking about this game, I'm going to collect in both the second game for the class and also the legal form.

因此，在谈论这个游戏的最后，我将收集班级的第二个游戏以及法律形式。

If you don't have a legal form, if you've lost it or something, it's online.

如果你没有合法的表格，如果你丢失了它或其他东西，它可以在网上找到。

Let's have a look at that second game.

我们来看看第二场比赛。

I'll read it out for you.

我给你读一下。

Game 2: "pick a number." Everyone got this?

游戏2：“选一个数字”。大家都收到了吗？

Anyone not got this?

有人没有得到这个吗？

Everyone got it?

大家都明白了吗？

Good.

好的。

"Without showing your neighbor what you're doing, put in the box below a whole number between 1 and a 100 [whole number between 1 and 100--integer.] We will calculate the average number chosen in the class.

“在不向邻居展示你在做什么的情况下，在下面的框中输入 1 到 100 之间的整数 [1 到 100 之间的整数 - 整数]。我们将计算班级中选择的平均数字。

The winner in this game is the person whose number is closest to two-thirds times the average in the class." [Again: the winner is the person whose number is closest to two-thirds times the average number in the class.] The winner will win $5 minus the difference in pennies between her choice and that two-thirds of the average."

这场比赛的获胜者是人数最接近全班平均数三分之二的人。” [再次强调：获胜者是人数最接近班级平均数三分之二的人。]获胜者将赢得 5 美元，减去她的选择与平均数三分之二之间的差额。”

Just to make sure you've understood this, let me do an example on the board.

为了确保您理解这一点，让我在黑板上举一个例子。

I've got one more board; that's good.

我还有一块板；那很好。

So imagine there were three people in the class, and imagine that they chose 25, 5, and 60.

想象一下班上有三个人，并想象他们选择了 25、5 和 60。

So 25 plus 5 plus 60 is 90.

所以 25 加 5 加 60 就是 90。

People should feel free to correct my arithmetic because it's often wrong; 90 right?

人们应该随意纠正我的算术，因为它经常是错误的； 90对吧？

Two-thirds of 90, whoops, what do I need, start again.

90后的三分之二，哎呀，我需要什么，重新开始。

I need to divide it by three to get the average.

我需要将其除以三以获得平均值。

So the average is 30.

所以平均值是30。

So the total is 90, the average is 30, am I right so far?

那么总数是 90，平均数是 30，到目前为止我对吗？

So two-thirds of the average is 20.

所以平均值的三分之二是 20。

I'm looking desperately at the T.A.

我绝望地看着 T.A.

Is that right?

是这样吗？

Okay, so the average is 30 and two-thirds of the average is 20.

好的，所以平均值是 30，平均值的三分之二是 20。

So who's the winner here, which number would have won here?

那么谁是这里的赢家，哪个号码会赢呢？

25 would have won.

25会赢。

25 would have been the closest, and what would they have won?

25 是最接近的，他们会赢得什么？

They would have won five bucks minus five cents for a total of four ninety-five.

他们将赢得五块钱减去五美分，总共四九十五块钱。

Now to make this interesting, let's play this for real.

现在为了让这个变得有趣，让我们来真实地玩一下。

So this of course relies on me having brought some money and we'll have to do this without dislodging the microphone.

所以这当然取决于我带了一些钱，而且我们必须在不移动麦克风的情况下做到这一点。

So I'm going to see if I have…

所以我要看看我是否有……

sorry about that.

对此感到抱歉。

I'm going to see if I have enough money to do this in class for real.

我要看看我是否有足够的钱在课堂上真正做到这一点。

When we played this game in the old days, during the dot com boom with the MBA students, you had to put fifty dollars on the table to get them interested.

当我们过去玩这个游戏时，在互联网繁荣时期，MBA 学生必须投入 50 美元才能让他们感兴趣。

Graduate students: five cents will do it.

研究生：五分钱就可以了。

Okay, so this is a--there's some bloke with a beard on this one.

好吧，这是一个——这个人身上有一个留着胡子的家伙。

Yeah this is Lincoln apparently.

是的，这显然是林肯。

Who knew, Lincoln?

谁知道呢，林肯？

Okay, so this is a five-dollar note and I'm going to put it--sorry about that again--I'm going to put it in an envelope.

好的，这是一张五美元的钞票，我要把它——再次抱歉——我要把它放在一个信封里。

I'm not cheating anybody?

我没有欺骗任何人吧？

No magic tricks here.

这里没有魔术。

And this is going to be the prize for this game and we better give this to someone we trust.

这将是这场比赛的奖品，我们最好把它交给我们信任的人。

It's the prize for 159.Who do you guys trust?

这是159的奖品，你们相信谁呢？

The camera guy.

摄像师。

Okay Jude: we know Jude's going to be there next week.

好的，裘德：我们知道裘德下周会去那里。

I'm giving it to Jude.

我要把它交给裘德。

You can't see this on camera.--people at home--but I'm giving it to Jude okay.

你在摄像机上看不到这个——家里的人——但我把它给裘德了，好吧。

I'm going to put it here, and Jude has to show up next week with the prize.

我要把它放在这里，裘德下周必须带着奖品出现。

I thought we should give it to the guy at the back, who is the moral guy.

我想我们应该把它交给后面那个有道德的人。

Who is our moral guy at the back?

谁是我们后面的道德人？

Well never mind, we will give it to Jude.

好吧，没关系，我们会把它交给裘德。

We know Jude's going to be here.

我们知道裘德会在这里。

All right, has everyone put a number down?

好吧，大家都记下数字了吗？

Any questions?

有疑问吗？

Just shout them out to me.

只要向我大声喊出来即可。

Student: So given that we only have one five dollar bill does there have to be one unique winner, and if so, how is that determined if we have multiple people who are -

学生：鉴于我们只有一张五美元的钞票，是否必须有一个唯一的获胜者，如果是的话，如果我们有多个人 -

Professor Ben Polak: That's a good question.

本·波拉克教授：这是一个很好的问题。

If there's multiple winners, we'll divide it but we'll make sure everyone has a positive winning.

如果有多个获奖者，我们将进行平分，但我们会确保每个人都获得正中奖。

Good question.

好问题。

Given the number of people in the room there may be multiple winners, I accept that possibility.

考虑到房间里的人数可能有多个获奖者，我接受这种可能性。

Has everyone written down a number now?

现在大家都写下数字了吗？

All right, so hand your numbers to the end of the row, but don't go yet.

好吧，所以把你的号码交给行尾，但先别走。

Hand it on to the end of the row.

将其交给该行的末尾。

Before you go I want five things from you.

在你走之前我想从你这里得到五件事。

I want to know the five lessons from this class.

我想知道这堂课的五课。

Tell me what you learnt?

告诉我你学到了什么？

What were the five lessons?

这五个教训是什么？

Without looking at your notes, what were the five lessons?

不看笔记，这五课是什么？

Anybody, shout out one of the lessons, yes madam.

任何人，喊出其中一课，是的，女士。

Professor Ben Polak: Don't play a strictly dominated strategy, anything else?

Ben Polak 教授：不玩严格占优策略，还有别的吗？

Yes sir.

是的，先生。

Professor Ben Polak: Yale students are evil.

本·波拉克教授：耶鲁学生是邪恶的。

Two lessons down, three to go.

还剩两节课，还剩三节课。

The guy over here.

这边的那个家伙。

Professor Ben Polak: Rational choices can lead to bad outcomes.

本·波拉克教授：理性选择可能会导致不良结果。

We put it more graphically before but that's fine.

我们之前更形象地表达了它，但这没关系。

Two more outcomes.

还有两个结果。

Professor Ben Polak: Put yourself in other people's shoes and I'm missing one, I can't recall which one I'm missing now.

本·波拉克教授：设身处地为别人着想，我会错过一个，我现在不记得错过了哪一个。

Professor Ben Polak: You can't get what you want.

本·波拉克教授：你无法得到你想要的东西。

You could but it's a good idea to figure out what you want before you try and get what you want.

你可以，但最好在尝试得到你想要的东西之前先弄清楚你想要什么。

Five things you learnt today, hand in your numbers and the legal forms and I'll see you on Monday.

你今天学到的五件事，交出你的数字和法律表格，我们周一见。