Do the Benefits Outweigh the Risks of Hosting U.S. Military Bases?
Since the end of World War II, the United States has maintained hundreds of military installations abroad.
自第二次世界大战结束以来，美国在海外维持了数百个军事设施。
While U.S. forces have faced some objections to their presence, many allies and partners have seen U.S. bases and other facilities on their territory as a sign of their close relations with a superpower, a form of protection, and an economic boon.
尽管美国军队的存在面临一些反对，但许多盟友和伙伴将美国在其领土上的基地和其他设施视为其与超级大国关系密切的标志、一种保护形式和经济利益。
However, the war with Iran has raised questions about whether hosting U.S. military installations subjects Arab Gulf states to Iranian retaliation while failing to provide sufficient protection.
然而，与伊朗的战争引发了人们的疑问：美国军事设施的驻扎是否会导致阿拉伯海湾国家遭受伊朗的报复，同时又未能提供足够的保护。
The sudden withdrawal of U.S. B-1 bombers from the RAF Fairford site in the United Kingdom earlier this month — reportedly in response to an Iranian threat — highlighted the risks to host countries.
本月早些时候，美国 B-1 轰炸机突然从英国皇家空军费尔福德基地撤出——据报道是为了应对伊朗威胁——凸显了东道国面临的风险。
The Trump administration’s approach to allies and partners — such as criticizing European countries , scaling back military exercises with South Korea, and calling on Arab Gulf states to pay the United States for its help protecting ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz — has not helped to reinforce public support for hosting U.S. military sites.
特朗普政府对盟友和伙伴的态度——例如批评欧洲国家、缩减与韩国的军事演习，以及呼吁阿拉伯海湾国家向美国支付保护通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只的费用——无助于加强公众对驻扎美国军事基地的支持。
We asked five experts about how some crucial U.S. allies and partners view hosting U.S. forces today, particularly in the wake of the war with Iran.
我们询问了五位专家，了解美国的一些重要盟友和合作伙伴如何看待当今驻扎美军，特别是在与伊朗的战争之后。
Is the shine wearing off, or do the benefits still outweigh the disadvantages?
光芒是否正在消失，或者好处仍然大于坏处吗？
For their assessments of the view from Japan, South Korea, Qatar, Germany, and the United Kingdom, read more below.
有关他们对日本、韩国、卡塔尔、德国和英国观点的评估，请阅读下文。
Ayumi Teraoka Assistant Professor of Politics at Brandeis University Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute
寺冈步美 (Ayumi Teraoka) 布兰代斯大学政治学助理教授 外交政策研究所非常驻高级研究员
The war in Iran highlights two concerns for Tokyo about U.S. reliability: inadequate U.S. consultation before initiating the conflict, despite exposing allies and U.S. bases to retaliation, combined with Washington’s reluctance to defend partner countries.
伊朗战争凸显了东京对美国可靠性的两个担忧：尽管盟友和美国基地面临报复，但美国在发动冲突前协商不足，而且华盛顿不愿保卫伙伴国家。
The extensive use of missiles and drones in recent conflicts has also demonstrated how striking distant targets has become increasingly less costly than defending against such attacks.
在最近的冲突中导弹和无人机的广泛使用也表明，打击远距离目标的成本比防御此类攻击的成本越来越低。
Nevertheless, the perceived benefits of hosting U.S. military bases still far outweigh the perceived risks for Japan, as it sits on the front line of regional contingencies and well within range of China’s anti-access/area denial capabilities.
尽管如此，对日本来说，拥有美国军事基地的好处仍然远远大于其风险，因为日本位于地区突发事件的前线，并且完全在中国反介入/区域拒止能力的范围之内。
More Japanese now see regional stability as key to their own security, and an overwhelming majority view China — rather than the United States — as the more likely initiator of a regional conflict, and see a robust U.S. military presence in Japan as critical to deterring nearby adversaries.
现在，越来越多的日本人将地区稳定视为自身安全的关键，绝大多数人认为中国（而不是美国）更有可能引发地区冲突，并认为美国在日本的强大军事存在对于威慑附近对手至关重要。
Tokyo will thus accelerate efforts to build more resilient, multilayered defenses using new technologies while working to shore up its alliance with Washington.
因此，东京将加快努力，利用新技术建立更有弹性的多层防御，同时努力巩固与华盛顿的联盟。
Seoul sees little risk to hosting U.S. military bases in South Korea emanating from Iranian-backed terrorist action.
首尔认为，伊朗支持的恐怖行动不会给韩国设立美国军事基地带来任何风险。
There have been no documented terrorist attacks in South Korea carried out by Middle East-based groups.
目前还没有中东组织在韩国实施恐怖袭击的记录。
South Korea’s geographic distance from the Middle East would also preclude a direct Iranian military attack on U.S. or South Korean facilities.
韩国与中东的地理距离也将阻止伊朗对美国或韩国设施进行直接军事攻击。
Furthermore, longstanding concerns about North Korean-directed terrorist or military attacks have led to strong defensive measures for U.S. bases in South Korea.
此外，长期以来对朝鲜发起的恐怖分子或军事袭击的担忧导致美国在韩国的基地采取了强有力的防御措施。
There is far greater South Korean concern about attacks on its interests in the Middle East and the resulting economic consequences.
韩国更加担心其在中东的利益受到攻击以及由此造成的经济后果。
That is one reason for Seoul’s hesitancy to respond to President Trump’s request for assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
这是首尔犹豫是否回应特朗普总统关于重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的援助请求的原因之一。
Tehran warned South Korea that joining U.S. operations in the strait would have serious consequences, including potential targeting of South Korean assets in the Middle East.
德黑兰警告韩国，加入美国在该海峡的行动将产生严重后果，包括可能针对韩国在中东的资产。
The war has exposed Qatar and all the Gulf states to intense retaliation from Iran.
这场战争使卡塔尔和所有海湾国家面临伊朗的强烈报复。
America’s disregard for the security of its Gulf partners by forcing them into the line of fire in a war they did not want caused shock and frustration in Doha.
美国无视海湾合作伙伴的安全，迫使他们在一场他们不希望发生的战争中陷入火线，这在多哈引起了震惊和沮丧。
Gulf citizens across social media platforms actively debate Gulf-U.S. relations and the risks associated with hosting bases.
海湾地区民众在社交媒体平台上积极讨论海湾地区与美国的关系关系以及与托管基地相关的风险。
However, Qatar’s leadership wants to maintain the defense relationship and continue to host U.S. forces.
然而，卡塔尔领导层希望维持防务关系并继续接待美军。
Their view is that, while U.S. actions exposed Gulf states to huge risks, U.S. defense systems and military support also defended them at a very successful rate against thousands of drones and missiles.
他们的观点是，虽然美国的行动使海湾国家面临巨大风险，但美国的防御系统和军事支持也非常成功地保护了它们免受数千架无人机和导弹的攻击。
The concern among some in Doha is that the United States will decide to downgrade its military infrastructure in Qatar and across the Gulf after Iranian attacks badly damaged the installations.
多哈的一些人担心，在伊朗的袭击严重破坏了卡塔尔和海湾地区的军事基础设施后，美国将决定降低其军事基础设施的等级。
The Gulf states are investing in diversifying their defense partnerships and their own capabilities, but they continue to affirm the critical importance of the U.S. security relationship even as they prepare for a post-U.S. security order in the Middle East.
海湾国家正在投资使其防务伙伴关系和自身能力多样化，但即使在为后美国时代做准备的同时，它们仍继续肯定美国安全关系的至关重要性。中东安全秩序。
Niklas Ebert Program Manager with the German Marshall Fund’s Transatlantic Security Program, Berlin
Niklas Ebert 德国马歇尔基金会跨大西洋安全项目项目经理，柏林
For Germany, the benefits of hosting U.S. bases still clearly eclipse the risks, despite recent incidents in the Gulf region and the United Kingdom and political discomfort at U.S. bases being used for controversial operations such as in the Middle East.
对德国来说，尽管海湾地区和英国最近发生了一些事件，而且美国基地被用于中东等有争议的行动，但政治上却感到不安，但驻扎美国基地的好处仍然明显超过了风险。
German policymakers view the bases as a tangible sign of American commitment to European security — particularly now, when the U.S. administration routinely questions the value of defending Europe.
德国政策制定者认为这些基地是美国对欧洲安全承诺的具体标志——尤其是现在，美国政府经常质疑保卫欧洲的价值。
Additionally, recent U.S. operations in the Middle East demonstrated the operational value of bases in Germany — and Europe more broadly — for the United States.
此外，美国最近在中东的行动证明了德国乃至更广泛的欧洲基地对美国的作战价值。
Europeans hence hope that the Pentagon’s European Posture Review will make the case for continuing the U.S. presence in Europe and might even provide leverage for European allies.
因此，欧洲人希望五角大楼的欧洲态势评估能够为美国继续在欧洲的存在提供理由，甚至可能为欧洲盟友提供影响力。
Even in the face of a potentially heightened security risk, and some political unease, German leaders continue to see the bases as a strategic net asset and a necessary and welcome means of “keeping the Americans in.”
即使面临潜在加剧的安全风险和一些政治不安，德国领导人仍然将这些基地视为战略净资产和“留住美国人”的必要且受欢迎的手段。
The United Kingdom has traditionally seen hosting U.S. bases as beneficial, because some bring access to capabilities that augment British resources, such as intelligence, and others provide access and overflight to U.S. forces — assuming in return a U.S. commitment to European defense.
英国传统上认为驻扎美国基地是有益的，因为有些基地可以增强英国的资源，例如情报，而另一些基地可以为美国军队提供进入和飞越的机会——前提是美国对欧洲防御的承诺。
More prosaically, large bases with an enduring U.S. presence of military personnel and their families boost the local economy.
更平淡地说，美国军事人员及其家属长期驻扎的大型基地促进了当地经济的发展。
I expect the U.K. government to hold this line for a while, at least in public comments.
我预计英国政府将在一段时间内坚持这一立场，至少在公开评论中如此。
The United Kingdom believes hosting is in both countries’ long-term interests.
英国认为举办世界杯符合两国的长远利益。
But in the short term, President Trump’s criticism of Europe for not supporting the war in Iran — even though European air bases were used for the buildup and bombers operated from RAF Fairford — is damaging.
但从短期来看，特朗普总统对欧洲不支持伊朗战争的批评——尽管欧洲空军基地被用于集结且轰炸机由英国皇家空军费尔福德基地运营——具有破坏性。
The war is already unpopular in the United Kingdom, and the combination of unpredictability and bluster will discourage British leaders from taking on more political risk for an apparently mercurial ally.
这场战争在英国已经不受欢迎，不可预测性和虚张声势的结合将阻止英国领导人为一个明显反复无常的盟友承担更多的政治风险。