What Will Hegseth’s “State of the Force” Reprise Reveal?
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to convene a high-profile meeting of military personnel for a “State of the Force” address this week.
国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯预计将于本周召开一次高调的军事人员会议，发表“部队状况”演讲。
Will it show the U.S. armed forces as healthy?
它会显示美国武装部队的健康状况吗？
The answer may depend on how the audience responds, regardless of what Hegseth says.
答案可能取决于观众的反应，无论赫格斯说什么。
How the audience handles what could be one of the higher-visibility made-for-media events of the defense secretary’s tenure could tell us a lot about how the U.S. military has adjusted to President Donald Trump’s second term.
观众如何处理这可能是国防部长任期内知名度较高的媒体活动之一，可以告诉我们很多关于美国军方如何适应唐纳德·特朗普总统第二任期的信息。
Reporting on the event is spotty, which suggests the Pentagon’s leadership is still deciding whether to hold it, or perhaps simply opting for a lower-key rollout.
关于该活动的报道参差不齐，这表明五角大楼的领导层仍在决定是否举行该活动，或者可能只是选择低调推出。
If it happens, this event will be somewhat like a reprise of last September’s unprecedented all-hands meeting involving over 800 generals and admirals.
如果真的发生，这次活动将有点像去年 9 月史无前例的、有 800 多名将军和海军上将参加的全体会议的重演。
Like a midterm exam, this event is a moment to assess the performance of military professionals ahead of the Trump administration’s own midterm, the November elections.
就像期中考试一样，这次活动是在特朗普政府自己的中期选举（11 月选举）之前评估军事专业人员表现的时刻。
The military passed last year’s exam with flying colors .
军队去年以优异的成绩通过了考试。
The meeting came as a surprise with very little explanation.
这次会议出人意料，几乎没有任何解释。
In that low-information environment, speculation abounded , and some serious observers worried about a potential crisis .
在信息匮乏的环境下，猜测大量存在，一些严肃的观察家担心潜在的危机。
Nothing like that happened, yet what did transpire was a test nonetheless.
类似的事情并没有发生，但所发生的事情仍然是一个考验。
The assembled were treated to a campaign rally speech by Trump and to Hegseth’s vigorous recapitulation of the main talking points about military fitness, grooming standards, and his “anti-woke agenda” that he had been delivering since he took the job.
与会者聆听了特朗普的竞选集会演讲，以及赫格塞斯对有关军事健身、仪容标准以及他上任以来一直在推行的“反觉醒议程”等主要话题的有力重述。
For most observers who do not understand American civil-military relations, the headline “President and Secretary Talk About Their Priorities with Senior Military Brass” might sound painfully routine, even banal.
对于大多数不了解美国军民关系的观察家来说，“总统和国务卿与高级军事官员谈论他们的优先事项”的标题可能听起来令人痛苦的例行公事，甚至是平庸的。
Yet this anticlimactic show constituted a serious trial on the crucial question of how the senior officers can maintain the essential nonpartisan ethic of the professional military during a time of intense political polarization and hyperpartisanship.
然而，这场虎头蛇尾的表演对一个关键问题构成了一次严肃的考验：在政治两极分化和党派偏见严重的时期，高级军官如何保持职业军队基本的无党派道德。
The key was for the military to listen respectfully, but not to cheer the kinds of partisan talking points that are acceptable at political rallies but toxic in a military environment.
关键是军方要恭敬地倾听，但不要为那些在政治集会上可以接受但在军事环境中有毒的党派言论欢呼。
Earlier that summer, a much more junior audience at Fort Bragg failed a pop quiz when they raucously cheered and booed on cue to the president’s standard stump speech.
那年夏天早些时候，布拉格堡的一群年轻得多的观众在一次流行测验中没能通过，当时他们在总统标准的竞选演讲中大声欢呼和发出嘘声。
Trump is allowed to say it.
特朗普可以这么说。
The military is allowed to think it.
军方可以这么想。
But as uniformed members of a nonpartisan institution sworn to uphold the Constitution, the military should respectfully listen and maintain the nation’s trust by not publicly taking sides on partisan issues.
但作为无党派机构的穿制服的成员，宣誓维护宪法，军队应该恭敬地倾听并维护国家的信任，不要在党派问题上公开选边站队。
This standard requires military audiences to show some discernment in how they respond to predictable talking points.
该标准要求军事观众在如何回应可预测的谈话要点方面表现出一定的洞察力。
“Go Navy, Beat Army?” Cheer or boo as you wish.
“去海军，打败陆军？”欢呼或嘘声如你所愿。
“We will get you a pay raise?” By all means, applaud.
“我们会给你加薪吗？”无论如何，鼓掌吧。
“The scumbags in the previous administration were too weak to give you a pay raise?” Stand silent.
“上届政府的人渣太弱了，不给你加薪？”保持沉默。
“We will win the war against Iran?” Feel free to cheer the pep talk if you want.
“我们会赢得对伊朗的战争吗？”如果您愿意，请随时为鼓舞士气的讲话欢呼。
“Politicians and the media who criticize how we are fighting this war are enemies of the state?” Sit silently.
“批评我们如何打这场战争的政客和媒体是国家的敌人？”静静地坐着。
Call this the State of the Union slouch.
这就是国情咨文的无精打采。
If you watch the Supreme Court justices and senior military officers in attendance, they are often sitting mutely while the legitimately political members of Congress pop up and down in cheers — or occasionally boos — in response to partisan applause lines.
如果你观察出席的最高法院法官和高级军官，你会发现他们常常默默地坐着，而国会的合法政治议员则上下欢呼，偶尔发出嘘声，以回应党派的掌声。
This is how the military should behave when addressed by politicians.
这就是军队在接受政客讲话时应有的表现。
To be sure, a quiet audience could indicate norm observance, or it could be a sign that the audience is scared by the presence of senior leaders, particularly senior leaders who have shown an extraordinary willingness to fire subordinates .
可以肯定的是，安静的观众可能表明遵守了规范，也可能表明观众对高级领导者的存在感到害怕，尤其是那些表现出异常愿意解雇下属的高级领导者。
Whether a quiet reception indicates a healthy or unhealthy environment is partly a matter of interpretation.
安静的接待是否表明环境健康或不健康，部分取决于解释问题。
But given the pervasiveness of partisan applause lines, a quiet reception is beneficial for reinforcing the norm, regardless of what is driving military behavior.
但鉴于党派掌声普遍存在，安静的接待有利于强化规范，无论是什么推动了军事行为。
And if reporters ask about the moments of silence, this is a great teaching moment for the public and for the rest of the force to hear about the importance of the nonpartisan norm and why no one should expect the military to be a partisan cheer squad.
如果记者询问默哀时刻，这对于公众和其他部队来说是一个很好的教育时刻，让他们了解无党派规范的重要性以及为什么没有人应该期望军队成为一支党派拉拉队。
This is decidedly not a trifling matter of decorum or politeness.
这绝对不是一件无关紧要的礼节或礼貌问题。
The safety of the American republic and the constitutional order depend on elected political leaders trusting that the military they have inherited from previous administrations will serve in a nonpartisan fashion.
美利坚共和国的安全和宪法秩序取决于民选政治领导人是否相信他们从前几届政府继承的军队将以无党派的方式服役。
The norm of nonpartisanship is enshrined in the Uniform Code of Military Justice and in Department of Defense Directive 1344.10, which strictly limits what uniformed military personnel can say and do when it comes to political speech and behavior.
无党派规范载于《统一军事司法法典》和国防部第 1344.10 号指令中，严格限制穿制服的军事人员在政治言论和行为方面的言论和行为。
Of course, service members can vote and attend partisan rallies on their own time.
当然，军人可以在自己的时间投票和参加党派集会。
But they may not attend rallies in uniform, thus reinforcing the idea that they are acting in a private capacity, not as part of the armed forces.
但他们可能不会穿着制服参加集会，从而强化了他们以私人身份而不是武装部队的一部分行事的想法。
To be sure, the directive does not address the specific circumstances that arose at last year’s events, when the military was ordered to attend in uniform and then subjected to a campaign rally-type speech.
可以肯定的是，该指令并没有涉及去年活动中出现的具体情况，当时军队被命令穿着制服参加，然后进行竞选集会式的演讲。
But the senior audience at Quantico showed how to behave in that ambiguous setting, and it was a powerful teaching moment for those who observed it.
但匡蒂科的资深观众展示了如何在这种模棱两可的环境中行事，对于观察者来说，这是一个强有力的教学时刻。
Of course, the military can hold private views about political leaders, but the kinds of contemptuous speech directed at political leaders that are commonplace on social media can be a violation of Article 88 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice if uttered by a uniformed officer against a wide range of political figures from the president to members of Congress or even to state-level political leaders.
当然，军方可以对政治领导人持有私人看法，但社交媒体上常见的针对政治领导人的蔑视言论，如果由一名穿制服的军官针对从总统到国会议员甚至州级政治领导人等广泛的政治人物发表，可能违反《统一军事司法法典》第88条。
The norm of nonpartisanship is reinforced in various professional military education engagements as service members move up the promotion ladder.
随着军人的晋升，无党派规范在各种专业军事教育活动中得到加强。
The norm is considered so important there is even an active debate among civil-military specialists and the most senior military leaders as to the extent to which the norm extends or should extend into retirement .
该规范被认为非常重要，以至于军民专家和最高军事领导人之间甚至就该规范延伸到或应该延伸到退休的程度展开了激烈的辩论。
The more visibly the military behaves in a partisan fashion, the harder it is to establish the trust on which healthy civil-military relations depend, and the more pressure the next administration will feel to clean house by ridding the ranks of partisan supporters of the last administration.
军队的党派行为越明显，就越难建立健康的军民关系所依赖的信任，下一届政府就会感受到更大的压力，需要清除上届政府的党派支持者来清理内部空间。
Already, incoming political appointees face a temptation to wrongly label as “partisan” a military member who merely executes or implements a policy developed by the previous administration that the new team wants to change.
即将上任的政治任命者已经面临着诱惑，将仅仅执行或实施前任政府制定的新团队想要改变的政策的军事成员错误地贴上“党派”标签。
If the military blurs that distinction by seeming to be cheerleaders, it invites an overcorrection.
如果军方以拉拉队的形象来模糊这种区别，就会导致矫枉过正。
Once that pendulum is set in motion, it is very hard to stop.
一旦钟摆开始转动，就很难停止。
As other leaders who have conducted political purges of their armed forces have discovered , the result can be disastrous to military effectiveness.
正如其他对武装部队进行过政治清洗的领导人所发现的那样，其结果可能对军事效率造成灾难性的影响。
At last year’s Quantico event, the audience met the test perfectly.
在去年的匡蒂科活动中，观众完美地通过了考验。
They listened respectfully and gave no partisan response even when the speakers invited them to do so.
他们恭敬地聆听，即使演讲者邀请他们这样做，也没有做出任何党派回应。
The audience at the upcoming meeting should at least match that performance.
即将举行的会议的观众至少应该与表演相匹配。
Anything less stoic will be seen as slippage and a creeping politicization of the force.
任何不那么坚忍的行为都会被视为滑坡和部队的政治化。
First, we can’t expect civilian leaders to help the military maintain decorum.
首先，我们不能指望文职领导人帮助军队维持礼仪。
While specialists praised the civil-military decorum at last year’s event, neither Trump nor Hegseth did.
尽管专家们赞扬了去年活动中的军民礼仪，但特朗普和赫格塞斯都没有这样做。
The president even commented on the quiet in quizzical terms , clearly preferring the more raucous reception he regularly receives from the partisan audiences that attend his rallies by choice — unlike the Quantico audience that was ordered to attend.
总统甚至用奇怪的语言评论了安静，显然他更喜欢他经常从自愿参加集会的党派观众那里受到的更喧闹的接待——这与被命令参加集会的匡蒂科观众不同。
To my knowledge, Hegseth did not praise the generals, admirals, and senior enlisted leaders — nor, to be fair, did he publicly criticize them for being quiet — and expressed no concerns about putting military audiences in these fraught partisan settings.
据我所知，赫格斯并没有赞扬将军、海军上将和高级士兵领导人——公平地说，他也没有公开批评他们的沉默——并且对将军事观众置于这些充满党派之争的环境中表示不担心。
Will the civilian team arranging the upcoming event show a sensitivity to these concerns, or will it look for ways to deliver more of the campaign rally mood that makes for politically useful video clips?
安排即将举行的活动的文职团队是否会表现出对这些担忧的敏感性，或者是否会寻找方法来传达更多的竞选集会情绪，从而制作出具有政治用途的视频剪辑？
Second, the audience at this year’s event is expected to be significantly more junior in rank and experience.
其次，预计今年活动的观众在级别和经验上将显着降低。
Younger officers and enlisted troops have not been as steeped in civil-military norms, expectations, and best practices as the more senior ranks are.
年轻的军官和士兵并没有像高级军官那样深入了解军民规范、期望和最佳实践。
They may not fully understand or embrace the norm of nonpartisanship that is required of them.
他们可能不完全理解或接受他们所要求的无党派规范。
Very likely, someone reminded the assembled generals and admirals of the nonpartisan norm and the importance of avoiding the appearance of politicization.
很可能有人提醒聚集在一起的将军和海军上将们注意无党派规范以及避免出现政治化的重要性。
Whoever did this was preaching to the choir, since most in the audience already understood this.
无论是谁这样做，都是在向合唱团布道，因为大多数观众已经明白了这一点。
By contrast, the new audience will have spent less time thinking about this aspect of the professional ethic and so will require a stronger reminder — and without it could be more vulnerable to a misstep.
相比之下，新受众花在思考职业道德这一方面的时间会更少，因此需要更强的提醒——如果没有提醒，他们可能更容易犯错。
That said, the younger audience could be an advantage in one respect.
也就是说，年轻观众在一方面可能是一个优势。
If Hegseth gives essentially the same speech to this new audience that he gave last time, it might land better.
如果赫格斯向这些新听众发表的演讲与他上次的演讲基本相同，效果可能会更好。
Certainly the junior officers and noncommissioned officers expected at the new gathering are more at the stage of their career where attention to fitness still is paramount.
当然，参加新聚会的下级军官和士官更多地处于职业生涯阶段，对健康的关注仍然是最重要的。
A backward-looking speech on these reforms would be well received, provided that it is not larded with partisan attacks.
关于这些改革的回顾性演讲将受到欢迎，只要它不带有党派攻击。
If it contains the latter, who will give the reminder message to the rank and file about how to remain nonpartisan this time?
如果包含后者，谁会向普通民众发出关于这次如何保持无党派的提醒信息？
Getting the more junior audience to meet the strict standards of the professional military ethos will be a leadership challenge for a force that has lost many of its most respected military leaders over the last year.
对于一支在去年失去了许多最受尊敬的军事领导人的部队来说，让更多的初级观众满足专业军事精神的严格标准将是一个领导力挑战。
The highest leadership levels of the Army, in particular, have been hollowed out with the loss of the service secretary, the chief of staff, and many of the most experienced combat leaders who have ably modeled nonpartisanship.
尤其是陆军最高领导层，随着军种部长、参谋长以及许多经验最丰富、善于塑造无党派精神的作战领导人的离职，已经被掏空。
These challenges lead to obvious prescriptions.
这些挑战导致了显而易见的解决办法。
First, Hegseth should show he understands and values the norm of nonpartisanship and should include that support in his remarks.
首先，赫格斯应该表明他理解并重视无党派规范，并应在他的言论中包含这种支持。
Critics of the secretary may doubt he would deliver such a message, but a nonpartisan military that is trusted to support the political leadership is a crucial component of military professionalism, which is a vital part of the military effectiveness Hegseth has championed.
国务卿的批评者可能怀疑他会传达这样的信息，但一支被信任支持政治领导的无党派军队是军事专业精神的重要组成部分，而专业精神是赫格斯所倡导的军事效力的重要组成部分。
Second, the senior military leadership and the chain of command of all members of the audience should remind the attendees of this bedrock principle and how to manifest it in this setting.
其次，高级军事领导层和所有观众的指挥系统应该提醒与会者这一基本原则以及如何在这种情况下体现它。
We will see whether service leaders can get a much less prepared cohort to meet the exacting nonpartisan standard that previous military leaders thought essential and that the force has demonstrated through its history.
我们将看看军种领导人是否能够让一支准备程度低得多的队伍来满足以前的军事领导人认为至关重要的严格的无党派标准，并且部队在其历史上已经证明了这一点。
Hegseth is right to want to communicate his vision to the uniformed military he leads.
赫格斯想要向他领导的军装军队传达他的愿景是正确的。
A substantive policy speech addressing the myriad challenges the military faces and conveying Hegseth’s plan for overcoming them would be well received and win plaudits, even from critics.
解决军队面临的无数挑战并传达赫格赛斯克服这些挑战的计划的实质性政策演讲将受到好评并赢得喝彩，甚至来自批评者。
But a partisan diatribe would be worse than a missed opportunity: It would put the audience in a position where pleasing the boss undermines their professional ethic, something the best Pentagon leaders try to avoid.
但党派谩骂比错失机会更糟糕：它会让观众陷入取悦老板的境地，从而损害他们的职业道德，而这是五角大楼最优秀领导人都极力避免的情况。
And if the military audience fails that test, it could intensify concerns about the health of the military professional ethic at a particularly fraught moment in American civil-military relations.
如果军事观众未能通过这一测试，在美国军民关系尤其令人担忧的时刻，可能会加剧人们对军事职业道德健康状况的担忧。
Peter D.
彼得·D.
Feaver is a professor of political science and public policy at Duke University, where he directs the American Grand Strategy Program.
费弗是杜克大学政治学和公共政策教授，负责美国大战略计划。
He is the author of Thanks for Your Service: The Causes and Consequences of Public Confidence in the U.S. Military (Oxford, 2023).
他是《感谢您的服务：公众对美国军队信心的原因和后果》一书的作者（牛津，2023 年）。
**Please note, as a matter of house style, War on the Rocks will not use a different name for the U.S. Department of Defense until and unless the name is changed by statute by the U.S. Congress.
**请注意，出于内部风格的考虑，岩石战争不会对美国国防部使用不同的名称，除非美国国会根据法规更改该名称。