Writing the Playbook: A Strategy and Doctrine for American Economic Security

In January, this article series opened with a blunt question: Economic statecraft is back, but is America ready?

一月份，本系列文章以一个直率的问题开始：经济治国之道又回来了，但美国准备好了吗？

Driving the question, in part, was the fact that the United States had not yet articulated (at least overtly) a strategy for economic statecraft.

造成这一问题的部分原因是美国尚未（至少公开地）阐明经济治国战略。

This was despite widening recognition that nations were increasingly using economic tools like tariffs and sanctions to pursue strategic objectives.

尽管人们越来越多地认识到，各国越来越多地使用关税和制裁等经济工具来实现战略目标。

U.S. awareness was particularly elevated by the realization during COVID-19 that decades of Chinese market manipulation, predatory trade behaviors , and security vulnerabilities deployed against its markets had gone unanswered.

在新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情期间，美国认识到中国几十年来的市场操纵行为、掠夺性贸易行为以及针对其市场的安全漏洞没有得到解决，这尤其提高了美国的认识。

On the eve of the nation’s 250th anniversary, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fired a shot across the bow.

在建国 250 周年纪念日前夕，财政部长斯科特·贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 开了一枪。

He announced a framework for economic statecraft driven by “the disciplined use of America’s economic power in service of our sovereignty,” embracing Alexander Hamilton’s principle that every nation “ought to endeavor to possess within itself all the essentials of national supply.” The strategy, which Bessent delivered to the Economic Club of New York and outlined publicly in the Wall Street Journal , centered on five principles: economic security begins with national capacity; American openness will be matched by reciprocity; America will write the rules of the next economy; financial leadership is a central instrument of statecraft; and economic statecraft should serve the American people.

他宣布了一个经济治国之道的框架，该框架的驱动力是“有纪律地使用美国的经济实力来服务我们的主权”，并拥护亚历山大·汉密尔顿的原则，即每个国家“应该努力在自己内部拥有国家供应的所有必需品”。贝森特向纽约经济俱乐部提交了这一战略，并在《华尔街日报》上公开概述了该战略，其核心是五项原则：经济安全始于国家能力；美国的开放将伴随着互惠；美国将制定下一个经济体的规则；财政领导是治国之术的核心工具；经济治国之道应该为美国人民服务。

Bessent’s five principles are generally an amalgamation of bipartisan economic statecraft concepts pursued since at least 2011 (albeit a departure from 80-plus years of post-war, Bretton Woods-framed geoeconomics ).

贝森特的五项原则总体上是至少自 2011 年以来所奉行的两党经济治国理念的融合（尽管与战后 80 多年来布雷顿森林体系框架下的地缘经济学有所不同）。

They also underscore the difficulty of crafting a comprehensive economic strategy given very real tradeoffs between America’s economic exceptionalism and its national security goals.

他们还强调，考虑到美国的经济例外论与其国家安全目标之间的现实权衡，制定全面的经济战略是困难的。

Tensions among the strategy’s principles are evident.

该战略原则之间的紧张关系是显而易见的。

For example, economic security derived from national capacity harkens to autarky, but American openness enabled by reciprocity points toward conditional engagement in an international trading system.

例如，源自国家能力的经济安全类似于自给自足，但美国通过互惠实现的开放则指向有条件地参与国际贸易体系。

Despite its unproven state, Bessent and the executive branch have framed an overdue and much-needed strategy for economic statecraft.

尽管其状况未经证实，贝森特和行政部门已经制定了一项迟来且急需的经济治国战略。

While the speech was a clarifying point for planners at Treasury, Commerce, the State Department, the Combatant Commands, and other agencies, the doctrine to follow — the guide for the strategy’s implementation — is yet to be developed and should be adopted in concert with ongoing practices and guidance, while holding true to national values, institutional norms, and an independent private sector.

虽然这次演讲为财政部、商务部、国务院、作战司令部和其他机构的规划者澄清了一点，但要遵循的原则——战略实施指南——尚未制定，应与现行实践和指导相结合，同时坚持国家价值观、制度规范和独立的私营部门。

That will require engagement with lawmakers, industry, and academics to reconcile tensions, and so practitioners are productively mobilized to realize the strategy’s vision.

这需要立法者、行业和学术界的参与来缓和紧张局势，从而有效地动员实践者来实现该战略的愿景。

While current efforts across the executive and legislative branches, industry, academia, and policy communities can serve as helpful guides, they are generally siloed and uncoordinated.

虽然行政和立法部门、工业界、学术界和政策界当前的努力可以作为有用的指导，但它们通常是孤立的和不协调的。

Success therefore demands that doctrine be developed and orchestrated collaboratively across these communities.

因此，成功要求这些社区共同制定和协调条令。

Enabling elements include designating a “referee” for economic statecraft in the executive branch, a settled “home” for it in Congress, paradigm-shifting incentives for industry to partner with government, workforce investment, and evolution in academia.

促成因素包括在行政部门指定经济治国的“裁判”、在国会为其提供固定的“家”、对工业界与政府合作的范式转变激励措施、劳动力投资以及学术界的发展。

While many tradeoffs remain unresolved, these and future policy solutions will help leaders recognize and accept the risks required for meaningful change.

尽管许多权衡尚未解决，但这些和未来的政策解决方案将帮助领导人认识并接受有意义的变革所需的风险。

Bessent’s speech is the most senior entry in a rapid buildup of economic security policy activities across the executive branch this year.

贝森特的讲话是今年整个行政部门迅速开展的经济安全政策活动中最高级的一次。

In April, the Pentagon’s Deputy Secretary of Defense Stephen Feinberg formally established the Economic Defense Unit , a hub charged with fusing economic leverage and requirements into joint military planning and operations by developing requirements for economic competition activities.

今年四月，五角大楼副国防部长史蒂芬·范伯格正式成立了经济防御部门，该部门负责通过制定经济竞争活动的要求，将经济杠杆和要求融入联合军事规划和行动中。

It joins the Office of Strategic Capital in a growing Pentagon ecosystem focused on gaining strategic advantage via economic leverage.

它加入了战略资本办公室，加入了不断发展的五角大楼生态系统，专注于通过经济杠杆获得战略优势。

The analytic foundation for that pursuit is also underway.

这一追求的分析基础也在进行中。

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s National Security Economic Theory program aims to put geoeconomics on a more quantitative and rigorous theoretical footing.

国防高级研究计划局的国家安全经济理论计划旨在将地缘经济学置于更加定量和严格的理论基础上。

A companion effort, the Anticipatory and Adaptive Anti-Money Laundering program , targets the machinery of illicit finance.

一项配套工作是预期性和适应性反洗钱计划，目标是非法金融机制。

For a discipline that lacks objective metrics and testable models due to its nascency, wargaming geoeconomics with rigor and intentionality is a necessity to build confidence in practice, policy, and process.

对于一门由于其新生而缺乏客观指标和可测试模型的学科来说，以严谨和有意的方式进行地缘经济学兵棋推演对于建立对实践、政策和流程的信心是必要的。

The work ahead requires putting the strategy on paper so bureaucracies can consider and ingest it into process and practice.

未来的工作需要将战略写在纸上，以便官僚机构可以考虑并将其纳入流程和实践中。

Bureaucrats thrive on regulatory guidance, as it is their impetus for action or inaction (and thus Congressional oversight).

官僚们在监管指导下茁壮成长，因为这是他们采取或不采取行动（以及国会监督）的动力。

Bessent’s five principles deserve similar treatment to what the National Defense Strategy does for the military instrument: a published economic security strategy nested within the national security strategy, with interagency doctrine and campaign plans following in turn.

贝森特的五项原则值得与《国防战略》对军事工具的对待类似：将公布的经济安全战略嵌套在国家安全战略中，然后依次遵循机构间条令和战役计划。

Ongoing doctrinal work is ripe for adoption and then operationalization but it should be synchronized.

正在进行的理论工作已经成熟，可以采用并实施，但应该同步进行。

The core task requires integrating economic considerations into both joint planning and the combatant commands , where commanders hold the day-to-day partner relationships upon which multilateral pressure campaigns depend.

核心任务需要将经济考虑纳入联合规划和作战指挥中，指挥官掌握着多边压力行动所依赖的日常伙伴关系。

Success will require building requisite playbooks and wargames to give Washington options when a crisis arrives.

成功需要制定必要的策略和兵棋推演，以便在危机到来时为华盛顿提供选择。

To execute, the executive branch should establish an entity akin to the Economic Warfare Operations Capability with definitive authority to prioritize and act on offensive and defensive economic statecraft decisions .

为了执行这一任务，行政部门应建立一个类似于经济战作战能力的实体，并拥有明确的权力来确定进攻性和防御性经济治国决策的优先顺序并采取行动。

It should be informed by a joint public-private fused intelligence and analytics enterprise, in conjunction with domestic and foreign industry partners.

它应该由公私联合融合情报和分析企业与国内外行业合作伙伴一起提供信息。

Congress is engaged, having recently pursued or passed various legislative initiatives, reports, and appropriations related to economic statecraft, to include the 2024 codification of the Office of Expanded Competition .

国会最近正在寻求或通过与经济治国技巧相关的各种立法举措、报告和拨款，其中包括 2024 年扩大竞争办公室的编纂。

In contrast, Congress did not include language authorizing the Economic Defense Unit in the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act , despite notable bipartisan support.

相比之下，尽管得到了两党的大力支持，国会并未在《2026 财年国防授权法案》中纳入授权经济防御部门的措辞。

Passage this year is similarly uncertain, though the unit is still authorized to operate by Pentagon memo with $500 million in Congressional funding.

今年的通过同样不确定，尽管五角大楼备忘录仍授权该部门在国会拨款 5 亿美元的情况下运作。

Legislative branch oversight fora like the Congressional-Executive Commission on China , the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission , the House and Senate intelligence committees, and those overseeing commerce and foreign affairs, actively deliver proposals and recommendations on economic statecraft issues .

国会及行政部门中国委员会、美中经济与安全审查委员会、参众两院情报委员会以及商业和外交事务监督机构等立法部门监督机构，积极就经济治国问题提出提案和建议。

The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party has especially proven itself as an active bipartisan forum focused on advancing U.S. economic competitive advantage .

众议院中国共产党特别委员会已特别证明自己是一个活跃的两党论坛，致力于提升美国的经济竞争优势。

Yet challenges remain as economic statecraft lacks a single defined path for legislation and oversight on the Hill .

然而，挑战依然存在，因为经济治国之道缺乏单一明确的立法和国会监督路径。

While the House Select Committee’s charter sanctions investigative authority, it does not grant legislative jurisdiction .

虽然众议院特别委员会的章程认可调查权，但它不授予立法管辖权。

Instead, its members work through other committees to advance legislation into law — not ideal given the magnitude and scope of the challenge and the competition for time and attention on busy legislative agendas.

相反，其成员通过其他委员会将立法推进为法律——考虑到挑战的严重性和范围以及繁忙立法议程上的时间和注意力竞争，这并不理想。

All these activities under Congress’s charter — oversight, sunset clauses, reporting requirements, review and validation of policies, statutory latitude and guardrails on new authorities — grow trust in emerging doctrine, which, in turn, helps turn strategy into practice.

国会宪章下的所有这些活动——监督、日落条款、报告要求、政策审查和验证、法定自由度和新当局的护栏——增强了人们对新兴理论的信任，这反过来又有助于将战略转化为实践。

The codification of entities like the Office of Expanded Competition or the Economic Defense Unit by Congress elevate and establish interagency economic statecraft authorities that endure beyond administrations .

国会将扩大竞争办公室或经济防御部门等实体编入法典，提升并建立了跨部门的经济治国权威，这些权威超越了政府的管辖范围。

More broadly, it helps establish a dedicated home for economic statecraft, whether via a dedicated committee or a coordinating body among House and Senate committees that oversee jurisdiction of economic security-related issues.

更广泛地说，它有助于建立一个专门的经济治国之家，无论是通过专门的委员会还是众议院和参议院委员会之间负责监督经济安全相关问题管辖权的协调机构。

A settled home in Congress, whether via a dedicated committee or a coordinating body among House and Senate committees that oversee jurisdiction of economic security-related issues, would give Bessent’s strategy a durable legislative branch counterpart.

无论是通过专门的委员会还是众议院和参议院委员会之间负责监督经济安全相关问题管辖权的协调机构，在国会安定下来，都将使贝森特的战略成为立法部门的持久战略。

Over the last decade, industry has been forced to reconcile, often reluctantly, with its frontline role in contemporary economic statecraft.

在过去的十年中，工业被迫（通常是不情愿地）与其在当代经济治国之道中的前沿角色相协调。

Why the tension?

为什么紧张？

Economic and political decisions once limited to local or regional impact now reverberate globally at unprecedented speed and scale.

曾经仅限于地方或区域影响的经济和政治决策现在以前所未有的速度和规模在全球范围内产生影响。

Once mundane corporate maneuvering from routine purchases to major mergers and acquisitions, capital investments, and manufacturing decisions , now translate to strategic leverage.

曾经平凡的企业运作，从日常采购到重大并购、资本投资和制造决策，现在都转化为战略杠杆。

The ability of the United States to apply economic pressure ultimately rests on the combination of individual chokepoints and production, finance, supply capacity, and capabilities wielded by corporate America.

美国施加经济压力的能力最终取决于个体的瓶颈与美国企业的生产、金融、供应能力和能力的结合。

A strong enduring U.S. strategic posture will require continued overhaul of how public and private sector actors collaborate domestically and abroad .

美国强大而持久的战略态势需要不断改革公共和私营部门参与者在国内外的合作方式。

Fusion of government and business intelligence is an enabling vehicle, required to inform board-level decision-making with statecraft implications while establishing doctrinal bona fides in both domains.

政府和商业情报的融合是一种赋能工具，需要为董事会级决策提供治国理政的影响，同时在这两个领域建立真诚的原则。

Legal and ethics codes, like elements of the Federal Acquisition Regulation that define the statutory bounds of government and business interactions, should be reviewed and adjusted to ensure threats are meaningfully addressed jointly (and incentivized accordingly), while holding true to long-held societal values and free market norms.

法律和道德准则，如联邦采购法规中定义政府和企业互动法定界限的要素，应进行审查和调整，以确保威胁得到有意义的共同解决（并相应地激励），同时坚持长期持有的社会价值观和自由市场规范。

Industry should expect clear signals of policy and intent from the government as boards and executive teams renew their approach to due diligence , especially those with significant exposure or involvement in markets inherently vital to national security.

随着董事会和执行团队更新尽职调查方法，行业应该期待政府发出明确的政策和意图信号，特别是那些在对国家安全至关重要的市场中拥有大量敞口或参与的公司。

An open channel for continuous public-private dialogue, a clearinghouse to jointly mitigate or resolve unintended missteps, is in order to facilitate.

持续公私对话的开放渠道、共同减轻或解决意外失误的信息交换所，都是为了提供便利。

Private-public efforts like J.P.

J.P. 等公私合作的努力

Morgan’s Security and Resilience Initiative , non-profit organizations like Business Executives for National Security , the Pentagon’s Business Operators for National Defense program , and purposeful guidance of capital toward national security-relevant sectors demonstrate progress on shifting culture and practice.

摩根的安全与弹性计划、国家安全企业高管计划等非营利组织、五角大楼的国防商业运营商计划以及有目的地引导资本流向国家安全相关部门，都展示了在转变文化和实践方面取得的进展。

But evolution with staying power in both domains is still required for enduring economic security.

但要实现持久的经济安全，仍然需要在这两个领域保持持久力的发展。

While policymakers are expected to lead, industry is firmly in the driver’s seat.

虽然政策制定者有望发挥主导作用，但工业界牢牢占据着主导地位。

Much like the storied journey that led to an effective public-private approach to cyber security , the two sectors should come together to develop and deploy a doctrine to implement the nation’s strategy for economic statecraft.

就像导致有效的公私合作网络安全方法的传奇旅程一样，这两个部门应该共同制定和部署一项学说，以实施国家的经济治国战略。

Just as economic statecraft lacks a home across government, the discipline lacks a settled home in academia, caught somewhere between economics, political science, security studies, and business.

正如经济治国术在政府部门中缺乏立足点一样，该学科在学术界也缺乏稳定的立足点，夹在经济学、政治学、安全研究和商业之间。

A ready workforce capable of navigating contemporary economic statecraft will require more intentional engagement and investment.

一支能够驾驭当代经济治国之道的现成劳动力将需要更多的有意参与和投资。

The tide is shifting.

潮流正在转变。

Institutions like the Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy have long filled a gap in helping military leaders understand and plan for the impact of adversarial economic statecraft on the ability to execute military missions.

艾森豪威尔国家安全与资源战略学院等机构长期以来一直在帮助军事领导人了解和规划对抗性经济治国手段对执行军事任务的能力的影响方面填补了空白。

Civilian programs like Texas A&M’s Economic Statecraft Program at the Bush School of Government are furthering intellectual rigor and academic programs.

德克萨斯农工大学布什政府学院的经济治国方案等民间项目正在进一步促进知识的严谨性和学术项目。

And the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s National Security Economic Theory program will contribute to both realms, civilian and military, in its pursuit to define a more rigorous scholarly field for contemporary quantitative geoeconomics.

国防高级研究计划局的国家安全经济理论项目将为民用和军事领域做出贡献，力求为当代定量地缘经济学定义一个更严格的学术领域。

Academics should embrace interdisciplinary education, collaboration, and shifting incentives to drive scale and structure.

学术界应该拥抱跨学科教育、合作和转变激励措施以推动规模和结构。

Universities can begin by formalizing curricula and credentials that prepare graduates for government and industry alike.

大学可以首先将课程和证书正式化，为毕业生进入政府和行业做好准备。

The skills needed to staff a Treasury sanctions team will doubtless be transferable to corporate policy intelligence shops.

财政部制裁团队所需的技能无疑可以转移到企业政策情报部门。

The workforce pipeline is its own front in the global competitive environment, with an incredibly long lead time.

劳动力管道在全球竞争环境中占据着自己的前沿，并且交付周期非常长。

Every element of Bessent’s strategy, from enforcement to analysis to campaign planning, will require people educated and trained to carry it out.

Bessent 战略的每一个要素，从执行到分析，再到活动规划，都需要受过教育和培训的人员来执行。

The defense policy community has advanced doctrinal approaches and proposed frameworks for economic statecraft.

国防政策界提出了先进的理论方法并提出了经济治国的框架。

As with the other communities, their work should be digested and analyzed by public and private sector leaders for integration into ongoing operations and contingency planning.

与其他社区一样，公共和私营部门领导人应消化和分析他们的工作，以便纳入持续运营和应急计划中。

Two major works appeared this spring.

今年春天出现了两部主要作品。

Emily Kilcrease’s Hit It with Your Best Shot: An American Doctrine of Economic Pressure distills 20 historical cases of American economic pressure into nine doctrinal principles, anchored by three theories campaigns should articulate in advance: a theory of victory, a theory of failure, and a theory of restraint.

艾米莉·基尔克莱斯 (Emily Kilcrease) 的《全力以赴：美国经济压力学说》将 20 个美国经济压力的历史案例提炼为九个学说原则，以竞选活动应提前阐明的三个理论为基础：胜利理论、失败理论和克制理论。

Elaine Dezenski and Josh Birenbaum’s Gameplan for American Economic Security proposes principles the United States should defend with its economic power and an “Economic Pentagon” to coordinate the effort.

伊莱恩·德赞斯基 (Elaine Dezenski) 和乔什·比伦鲍姆 (Josh Birenbaum) 的《美国经济安全博弈计划》提出了美国应利用其经济实力捍卫的原则以及协调这一努力的“经济五角大楼”。

Likewise, the Potomac Institute’s 2025 Economic Statecraft Summit Report recommended a federal convening authority, an analytic enterprise, and oversight mechanisms to enable elements proposed in previous sections of this article.

同样，波托马克研究所的 2025 年经济治国峰会报告建议设立一个联邦召集机构、一个分析企业和监督机制，以实现本文前面几节中提出的要素。

Bessent’s June remarks now sit alongside these proposals, among others .

贝森特六月的言论现在与这些提议等并列。

Despite differences, there is overlap between mutual ideas of centralized orchestration, anticipatory planning, and disciplined practice as necessary doctrinal tenets.

尽管存在差异，但集中协调、预期规划和严格实践作为必要的理论原则的共同想法之间存在重叠。

The yet-to-be-named entity should next translate that convergence into references and tools for practitioners’ use — operational handbooks, metrics of success, and wargame designs — for the interagency to exercise with and learn from alongside private sector partners.

接下来，这个尚未命名的实体应该将这种融合转化为供从业者使用的参考资料和工具——操作手册、成功指标和兵棋设计——以便跨部门与私营部门合作伙伴一起练习和学习。

U.S. adversaries and friends are carrying out their own economic statecraft strategies.

美国的对手和朋友正在实施自己的经济治国战略。

China in particular is well-versed at waging economic war through supply chain coercion, intellectual property theft , cyber attacks , boardroom chess , and manufacturing base mastery.

中国尤其擅长通过供应链胁迫、知识产权盗窃、网络攻击、董事会棋和掌控制造基地来发动经济战。

Its successes means the U.S. government and its public and private sector partners, at home and abroad, must act quickly.

它的成功意味着美国政府及其国内外的公共和私营部门合作伙伴必须迅速采取行动。

The War by Other Ledgers series elevated what should be acted upon, both in practice and concept.

《其他账本之战》系列在实践和概念上都提升了应该采取的行动。

Across the federal institutional architecture , authorities and decision-makers remain decentralized.

在整个联邦机构架构中，当局和决策者仍然是分散的。

Fused intelligence will close seams across public and private sector actors and better focus improvised operations by the Pentagon and other federal entities in the absence of a strategy and clear doctrinal framework.

融合情报将弥合公共和私营部门参与者之间的联系，并在缺乏战略和明确的理论框架的情况下更好地关注五角大楼和其他联邦实体的临时行动。

Corporate leaders are learning to assess risk given new geoeconomic realities while grappling with how to grow and develop a workforce for today and tomorrow .

企业领导者正在学习评估新的地缘经济现实带来的风险，同时努力解决如何为今天和未来培养和发展员工队伍的问题。

All point to the same condition: Siloes of excellence across the government and private sector are working ad hoc and disparately on economic security and will benefit from the connective tissue of a holistic national strategy and doctrine for economic statecraft.

所有这些都指向同一条件：政府和私营部门的卓越部门正在专门且不同地致力于经济安全，并将受益于整体国家战略和经济治国学说的结缔组织。

Wholesale agreement on any administration’s approach to policy is perpetually elusive.

任何政府的政策方针都永远难以达成一致。

Bessent’s strategy to economic statecraft strategy is no exception and will need to overcome critics of its principles and practice.

贝森特的经济治国战略也不例外，需要克服对其原则和实践的批评。

Regardless, there is undeniable momentum for change across the stakeholder communities that should be translated into action.

无论如何，利益相关者社区存在不可否认的变革动力，应将其转化为行动。

Bessent’s strategy offers an outline for a playbook yet to be drafted.

贝森特的战略为尚未起草的剧本提供了轮廓。

The ledgers are open.

账本是开放的。

Will the United States do what is necessary to balance them?

美国会采取必要措施来平衡它们吗？

Tim Welter, Ph.D., is a senior research fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, where he started and leads the Global Competition Project.

Tim Welter 博士是波托马克政策研究所的高级研究员，他在那里发起并领导了全球竞争项目。

Leveraging experience from Capitol Hill, the Pentagon, industry, and academia, his research is primarily focused on national security policy development and implementation, and economic statecraft.

凭借国会山、五角大楼、工业界和学术界的经验，他的研究主要集中在国家安全政策的制定和实施以及经济治国方略。