Certainty is a Luxury Ukrainians Must Create
Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum only for War on the Rocks members.
欢迎来到《乌克兰指南针》，这是一份专门为岩石战争成员提供的乌克兰各政治派别的评论和分析的每周摘要。
Each week, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrainians themselves debate the issues shaping their country.
每周，我们都会为您带来乌克兰媒体精选的文章，深入了解乌克兰人如何辩论塑造其国家的问题。
Western coverage often narrows the view to the battlefield — these pieces widen it, revealing the texture of daily life, politics, and public argument in a nation at war.
西方的报道常常缩小战场的视野，而这些报道则拓宽了战场的视野，揭示了一个处于战争状态的国家的日常生活、政治和公共争论的本质。
The perspectives gathered here are varied, candid, and often surprising, together forming a more complete picture of Ukraine as it really is.
这里聚集的观点多种多样、坦诚，而且往往令人惊讶，共同构成了乌克兰更完整的真实面貌。
By Victor Taran/Sept.
维克多·塔兰/九月
30, 2026 Kosovo has just finished a demining program nearly three decades after its 1998–1999 war, a sobering benchmark for Ukraine, writes Victor Taran.
2026 年 12 月 30 日，科索沃刚刚完成了 1998-1999 年战争近 30 年后的排雷计划，这对乌克兰来说是一个发人深省的基准，维克多·塔兰 (Victor Taran) 写道。
As of 2026, more than a fifth of Ukraine’s territory may need surveying and clearing, and fighting adds contaminated land every month, he writes.
他写道，截至 2026 年，乌克兰超过五分之一的领土可能需要勘察和清理，而战斗每月都会增加受污染的土地。
He estimates returning most areas to safe use could take 10 to 20 years once fighting ends.
他估计，一旦战斗结束，大部分地区恢复安全使用可能需要 10 到 20 年的时间。
Taran argues that drones, satellites, AI, sensors, and autonomous vehicles can speed the work, turning demining into a technological challenge where Ukraine could lead the world in innovation.
塔兰认为，无人机、卫星、人工智能、传感器和自动驾驶汽车可以加快工作速度，将排雷变成一项技术挑战，乌克兰可以在创新方面引领世界。
“For Ukraine, demining is not only a humanitarian task but a technological challenge that will span decades.
“对乌克兰来说，排雷不仅是一项人道主义任务，也是一项跨越数十年的技术挑战。
We have already been forced to develop unmanned systems for war at remarkable speed, and once the war ends, we will need to build robotic and autonomous solutions just as quickly to return the land to normal life.
我们已经被迫以惊人的速度开发用于战争的无人系统，一旦战争结束，我们将需要尽快构建机器人和自主解决方案，以使土地恢复正常生活。
This is also an important opportunity: beyond clearing our own territory over the coming decades, Ukraine can create technologies, standards, and practices that other countries will later adopt.”
这也是一个重要的机会：除了在未来几十年清理我们自己的领土之外，乌克兰还可以创造其他国家随后采用的技术、标准和做法。”
By Artem Bidenko/Oct.
作者：阿尔乔姆·拜登科/十月
5, 2026 Artem Bidenko applies a terrorism-studies framework to Russia’s strikes on Kyiv’s bridges, arguing they aim to exhaust and intimidate Ukrainians into accepting peace on any terms.
2026 年 12 月 5 日，阿尔乔姆·拜登科将恐怖主义研究框架应用于俄罗斯对基辅桥梁的袭击，认为他们的目的是耗尽并恐吓乌克兰人接受任何条件的和平。
He cites scholarly research that shows such strategies rarely work, as punishing civilians seldom forces governments to capitulate.
他引用的学术研究表明，这种策略很少奏效，因为惩罚平民很少会迫使政府投降。
Drawing on how the United States, Israel, and France responded to terrorism, refusing concessions, swiftly restoring normal life, and ensuring eventual punishment, the author argues Ukraine’s best response is to reopen bridges quickly and guarantee retaliation.
作者借鉴了美国、以色列和法国应对恐怖主义、拒绝让步、迅速恢复正常生活并确保最终惩罚的做法，认为乌克兰的最佳反应是迅速重新开放桥梁并保证进行报复。
Negotiating or bending, he warns, only increases losses and pressure to accept suboptimal peace terms.
他警告说，谈判或屈服只会增加损失和接受次优和平条件的压力。
“The first is attrition: convincing us that we will have to pay this price for so long that giving in will be cheaper.
“第一个是消耗：让我们相信，我们将不得不长期付出这个代价，因此屈服会更便宜。
It’s a familiar narrative, isn’t it?
这是一个熟悉的叙述，不是吗？
These days, supporters of peace at any cost voice it in sync with the strikes.
如今，和平支持者不惜一切代价在罢工的同时发声。
The second is intimidation: showing people that the state cannot protect even their ordinary commute to work.
第二个是恐吓：向人们展示国家甚至无法保护他们的日常通勤。
The real target of the strike is not the driver on the bridge, but all of us who watch the videos and think about changing our usual routes.
罢工的真正目标不是桥上的司机，而是我们所有观看视频并考虑改变平常路线的人。
According to the terrorists’ plan, this calculation is meant to breed fatigue and a willingness to accept that very peace on any terms.”
根据恐怖分子的计划，这种算计的目的是滋生疲劳，并愿意以任何条件接受这种和平。”
By Thomas Vaye/Sept.
托马斯·瓦伊/九月
30, 2026 Despite the far-right Alternative for Germany’s strong showing in state elections, Germany’s support for Ukraine remains secure for now, Thomas Vaye believes.
2026 年 2 月 30 日 托马斯·瓦耶 (Thomas Vaye) 认为，尽管德国极右翼选择党在州选举中表现强劲，但德国对乌克兰的支持目前仍然稳固。
Ukraine policy is a federal matter, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces no serious challenger at present, and no coalition member is pushing to cut aid.
乌克兰政策是联邦事务，总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨目前没有面临严峻的挑战，也没有联盟成员推动削减援助。
An AfD-led state government could cause minor problems, such as security data concerns, but cannot block support without buy-in from a broader coalition.
德国选择党领导的州政府可能会引发一些小问题，例如安全数据问题，但如果没有更广泛联盟的支持，就无法阻止支持。
The long-term danger is real, though, he writes: The AfD is disciplined in framing Ukraine aid as contrary to German interests and could shape federal policy after 2029.
不过，他写道，长期危险是真实存在的：德国选择党在将乌克兰援助定性为违背德国利益方面颇有纪律，并可能影响 2029 年之后的联邦政策。
The author urges Kyiv to open contacts with the AfD and plan for weaker German support in the coming years.“First, it is time for the Ukrainian government to establish contacts with the AfD, a view I have heard even from a Bundestag member of the ruling coalition.
作者敦促基辅与选择党建立联系，并计划在未来几年削弱德国的支持。
People who visit Ukraine often change their minds, so it is worth trying, even if the results are unlikely to be dramatic.
访问乌克兰的人经常会改变主意，因此值得尝试，即使结果不太可能引人注目。
Second, it is time to consider what Ukraine can do if a future German government no longer supports it as decisively as the current one does.” ***
其次，现在是时候考虑如果未来的德国政府不再像现任政府那样坚决支持乌克兰，乌克兰可以做什么。” ***
“ Beneath The Surface of the Ukraine–South Korea Dispute ” By Mykhailo Honchar/Sept.
“乌克兰-韩国争端的表面之下” 作者：Mykhailo Honchar/9 月
30, 2026
2026 年 30 日
A diplomatic dispute erupted after Kyiv publicized its transfer of two North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul.
基辅宣布将两名朝鲜战俘转移至首尔后，引发了一场外交争端。
The author, while critical of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s team, argues the deeper cause lies elsewhere: Ukraine had sought weapons in exchange for the prisoners, an approach Seoul viewed as unjust.
作者虽然批评泽连斯基总统的团队，但认为更深层次的原因在于其他地方：乌克兰寻求武器以换取囚犯，首尔认为这种做法不公正。
Neither South Korean government has been willing to provide direct military aid to Ukraine, and the current administration is eager to revive lucrative business with Russia.
韩国政府都不愿意向乌克兰提供直接军事援助，而现任政府则渴望重振与俄罗斯的利润丰厚的业务。
The author contends Kyiv should have instead used the prisoners as leverage to secure the release of Ukrainian political prisoners held in Russia, wasting a rare opportunity.
作者认为，基辅应该利用这些囚犯作为筹码，以确保释放在俄罗斯关押的乌克兰政治犯，从而浪费了难得的机会。
“Ukraine’s approach to South Korea was seen as somewhat crude and unreasonable, even given the difficult situation the country faces.
“乌克兰对韩国的态度被认为有些粗鲁和不合理，即使考虑到该国面临的困难局势。
Experts in Seoul noted that it is inappropriate to place weapons support and the repatriation of prisoners on the same level, arguing that the return of North Korean prisoners of war should be treated as a humanitarian issue rather than tied to arms deliveries.”
首尔专家指出，将武器支持和遣返战俘放在同一水平上是不合适的，他们认为朝鲜战俘的遣返应被视为人道主义问题，而不是与武器运送挂钩。”
“ Digital Discrimination From Diia: A New Form of Social Inequality ” By Maryna Stavniychuk/Sept.
“来自 Diia 的数字歧视：一种新形式的社会不平等”作者：Maryna Stavniychuk/9 月
30, 2026
2026 年 30 日
Maryna Stavniychuk supports mass digitalization but argues Ukraine’s Diia app has become a tool of discrimination and legal chaos.
Maryna Stavniychuk 支持大规模数字化，但认为乌克兰的 Diia 应用程序已成为歧视和法律混乱的工具。
Its legal basis rests mostly on Cabinet resolutions rather than parliamentary law, and officials and banks often illegally demand the app instead of accepting physical documents, she writes.
她写道，其法律基础主要取决于内阁决议而不是议会法律，官员和银行经常非法要求使用该应用程序而不是接受纸质文件。
No one is held accountable for failures, and the Ministry of Digital Transformation faces no independent oversight.
没有人对失败负责，数字化转型部也没有面临独立的监督。
The app excludes pensioners, the poor, and rural residents, suffers frequent technical failures, and creates a dangerous single point of failure in wartime, she explains.
她解释说，该应用程序将养老金领取者、穷人和农村居民排除在外，经常遭受技术故障，并在战时造成危险的单点故障。
“Diia was created as the centerpiece of Ukraine’s State in a Smartphone initiative.
“Diia 是在智能手机计划中作为乌克兰国家的核心而创建的。
Its goal was to digitize public services, cut through domestic bureaucracy, remove the human factor, and reduce corruption, so that a person could obtain a certificate or register as a sole proprietor in just a few clicks.
其目标是将公共服务数字化，消除国内官僚机构，消除人为因素，减少腐败，以便一个人只需点击几下即可获得证书或注册为独资经营者。
Ukraine even became the first country in the world to give an electronic passport on a smartphone the same legal status as a physical one.
乌克兰甚至成为世界上第一个给予智能手机电子护照与实体护照同等法律地位的国家。
But the euphoria of those early years has faded.
但早年的欣喜已经消退。
The dust has settled, and today the reality is laid bare: behind the loud marketing reports lie systemic failures.”
尘埃落定，今天的现实已经暴露无遗：喧嚣的营销报道背后隐藏着系统性的失败。”
“ Where Is Ukraine’s Forensic Medical Service Heading?
乌克兰法医服务走向何方？
” By Olha Skorokhod/Sept.
” 作者：Olha Skorokhod/9 月
30, 2026
2026 年 30 日
Ukraine’s Ministry of Health is quietly consolidating regional forensic medical bureaus into a single new institute, often through unpublished orders, according to Olha Skorokhod.
奥尔哈·斯科罗霍德 (Olha Skorokhod) 表示，乌克兰卫生部正在悄悄地将地区法医局合并为一个新机构，通常是通过未公开的命令进行的。
The reorganization has stalled court cases, with examinations delayed up to a year.
重组导致法庭案件陷入停滞，审查被推迟了长达一年。
She warns it creates a state monopoly, leaving defendants, especially doctors, no way to obtain independent examinations or challenge findings.
她警告说，这会造成国家垄断，使被告，尤其是医生，无法获得独立检查或质疑调查结果。
She backs allowing certified private experts.
她支持允许经过认证的私人专家。
Meanwhile, parliament member Serhii Vlasenko has introduced bills to open the expert profession even more, arguing that competition would make examinations truly independent and adversarial.
与此同时，议会议员 Serhii Vlasenko 提出了进一步开放专家职业的法案，认为竞争将使考试真正独立和对抗。
“With all due respect, and despite every declaration of judicial independence, our courts remain oriented toward the state.
“恕我直言，尽管每一次都宣布司法独立，但我们的法院仍然以国家为导向。
On top of that, expert examinations are state-run, while on the other side stand only the accused and their lawyer.
最重要的是，专家检查是国家管理的，而另一边只有被告及其律师。
These are entirely unequal conditions.
这些都是完全不平等的条件。
Because the state will always seek to keep control over expert examinations, we need to level the playing field, since experts who work for the state are open to influence.”
因为国家总是会寻求对专家考试的控制，所以我们需要创造公平的竞争环境，因为为国家工作的专家很容易受到影响。”
“ Russia’s Money, but Not All of It: Where The E.U.
“俄罗斯有钱，但不是全部：欧盟在哪里？
Can Find Funds for Ukraine ” By Serhii Verlanov/Sept.
可以为乌克兰找到资金” 作者：Serhii Verlanov/9 月
30, 2026
2026 年 30 日
Although the European Union’s €90 billion loan is a key source of Ukraine’s funding for 2026–2027, a large budget gap has emerged, driven by prolonged, intensifying war, reduced weapons deliveries, Russian strikes on the economy, and delays in receiving aid, writes Serhiy Verlanov.
Serhiy Verlanov 写道，尽管欧盟的 900 亿欧元贷款是乌克兰 2026-2027 年资金的主要来源，但由于战争旷日持久、加剧、武器交付减少、俄罗斯对经济的打击以及接收援助的延迟，出现了巨大的预算缺口。
Moving 2027 payments forward would help now, but deepen next year’s crisis, he says.
他表示，提前 2027 年付款现在会有所帮助，但会加深明年的危机。
The author argues that a long-term solution requires a joint European decision on frozen Russian assets that spreads legal and political risk beyond Belgium, possibly by expanding the existing loan mechanism.
作者认为，长期解决方案需要欧洲就冻结的俄罗斯资产做出联合决定，这可能通过扩大现有贷款机制将法律和政治风险分散到比利时以外。
“Only an additional source of funding will allow Ukraine to plan its defense several years ahead, but before such a solution is possible, partners need answers to a few questions.
“只有额外的资金来源才能使乌克兰能够提前几年规划其防御，但在这样的解决方案成为可能之前，合作伙伴需要回答几个问题。
First, why has such a large hole emerged in Ukraine’s budget?
首先，乌克兰预算为何出现如此大的缺口？
Second, how can money be transferred to Ukraine given Belgium’s warnings?
其次，鉴于比利时的警告，如何将资金转移到乌克兰？
Finally, although the European Union is said to hold €210 billion in frozen Russian funds, most of that money has already been used or reserved as collateral for aid to Ukraine, so even if the legal issues are resolved, the full amount can no longer be counted on.”
最后，尽管据说欧盟持有2100亿欧元的俄罗斯冻结资金，但其中大部分资金已经被用作或保留作为援助乌克兰的抵押品，因此即使法律问题得到解决，也不能再指望全额了。”
By Serhii Fursa/Sept.
作者：Serhii Fursa/九月
28, 2026 Economist Serhii Fursa argues that while Ukraine’s budget is running short as Russian strikes deepen economic losses, a major source of money is hiding in plain sight: the shadow economy.
2026 年 2 月 28 日经济学家 Serhii Fursa 认为，虽然乌克兰的预算随着俄罗斯的袭击加剧经济损失而短缺，但一个主要的资金来源却隐藏在人们的视线中：影子经济。
Bringing it into the open is the hardest reform, he says, because almost everyone opposes it.
他说，将其公开是最困难的改革，因为几乎所有人都反对。
Politicians profit from illicit flows, and ordinary Ukrainians, despite condemning corruption and smuggling, avoid taxes by buying from untaxed vendors and foreign marketplaces.
政客们从非法流动中获利，普通乌克兰人尽管谴责腐败和走私，但还是通过从免税供应商和外国市场购买商品来避税。
The illegal tobacco market alone costs about $1 billion a year, he states.
他表示，仅非法烟草市场每年就花费约 10 亿美元。
Most Ukrainians have never paid taxes fairly, Fursa contends, and clinging to the status quo is especially dangerous in wartime.
福尔萨认为，大多数乌克兰人从未公平纳税，而在战时坚持现状尤其危险。
“There is a problem with the reform to bring the economy out of the shadows: people oppose it because no one likes paying taxes.
“让经济走出阴影的改革存在一个问题：人们反对它，因为没有人喜欢纳税。
They speak out against smuggling but happily buy from sole proprietors who avoid customs duties and value-added tax.
他们公开反对走私，但很乐意从避免关税和增值税的独资经营者那里购买产品。
They condemn corruption, yet they constantly use a legal domestic tax haven while insisting the government should look for money at customs instead.”
他们谴责腐败，但他们不断利用合法的国内避税天堂，同时坚持政府应该在海关寻找资金。”
“ How Zaporizhzhia Remains a Fortress In Times Of Great Trials ” By Nata Kushniruk/Sept.
“扎波罗热如何在严峻的考验中保持堡垒”作者：Nata Kushniruk / 9 月
29, 2026
2026 年 29 日
Zaporizhzhia’s history has been a repeated struggle to build a lasting home amid the open steppe, from ancient mounds to the Cossack Sich to Soviet industry, which brought strength but also environmental damage and weakened local identity, writes Nata Kushniruk.
纳塔·库什尼鲁克（Nata Kushniruk）写道，扎波罗热的历史就是在开阔的草原上为建立一个持久的家园而进行的反复斗争，从古老的土丘到哥萨克西奇再到苏联工业，这带来了力量，但也造成了环境破坏并削弱了当地的认同感。
Under Russian attack, the author argues, culture is a form of resistance and decolonization.
作者认为，在俄罗斯的攻击下，文化是抵抗和非殖民化的一种形式。
The Read Forum literary festival, held in protected spaces, embodies this through readings, a lively poetry slam, and the participation of soldiers, Kushniruk explains.
库什尼鲁克解释说，在受保护的空间举行的阅读论坛文学节通过阅读、生动的诗歌大满贯和士兵的参与体现了这一点。
Drawing on writers like Shevchenko and Malanyuk, the author contends that identity must be constantly reinvented, and that language and literature give the city its true strength.
作者借鉴舍甫琴科和马兰尤克等作家的观点，认为身份必须不断重塑，语言和文学赋予这座城市真正的力量。
“In a front-line city, you can feel the danger of space being reduced to a wasteland.
“在一线城市，你可以感受到空间被沦为荒地的危险。
Russian aggression calls into question whether a livable space can exist at all.
俄罗斯的侵略让人们对是否存在宜居空间提出质疑。
The enemy seeks to reduce the city to a point on a military map, dissolve it into damage reports, or lock it inside the outdated Soviet stereotype of an industrial giant.
敌人试图将这座城市缩小为军事地图上的一个点，将其分解为损害报告，或者将其锁定在过时的苏联工业巨头的刻板印象中。
Under these conditions, every act that affirms people’s conscious choice to remain in Zaporizhzhia becomes a tool of decolonization, one that solidifies a stable identity and serves as an unbreakable anchor for the future.
在这种情况下，每一项肯定人们自觉选择留在扎波罗热的行为都成为非殖民化的工具，巩固稳定的身份并成为未来牢不可破的锚。
Zaporizhzhia stubbornly continues to create safe spaces for reading, conversation, and memory.”
扎波罗热顽固地继续为阅读、对话和记忆创造安全的空间。”
Austrian choreographer Florentina Holzinger, who represented Austria at the 2026 Venice Biennale, visited Ukraine in August.
代表奥地利参加2026年威尼斯双年展的奥地利编舞家弗洛伦蒂娜·霍尔辛格于8月访问了乌克兰。
Reflecting on the trip, she describes experiencing the war directly rather than through media, and says Western countries remain participants despite their distance.
回顾这次旅行，她描述了直接经历战争而不是通过媒体的经历，并表示尽管相距遥远，西方国家仍然是参与者。
She sees art not merely as entertainment or escape but as a tool for digesting reality and imagining how it could change.
她认为艺术不仅仅是一种娱乐或逃避，而是一种消化现实并想象现实如何改变的工具。
Art, she argues, must also mirror powerful collective experiences, including trauma, without softening them, since a cautious approach helps no one.
她认为，艺术还必须反映强大的集体经历，包括创伤，而不软化它们，因为谨慎的方法对任何人都没有帮助。
She values polarizing work over universal approval, finding creative freedom in not seeking to please.
她重视两极分化的工作而不是普遍的认可，在不寻求取悦的过程中寻找创作自由。
“Many people left, but many stayed, and those who did were truly passionate.
“很多人离开了，但也有很多人留下来，留下来的人都是真正充满激情的人。
I think it was Lady Gaga who said something to the effect that even one person in the audience is enough.
我想是Lady Gaga说了一句话，大意是观众中只有一个人就足够了。
We really created for each other, and sometimes one person in the room is enough to feel the value of what you do and of yourself as a person.”
我们真的是为彼此创造的，有时房间里的一个人就足以感受到你所做的事情和你自己作为一个人的价值。”
It’s occurred to me lately just how much of a luxury certainty is, and that’s true in so many situations, including Ukraine’s present reality.
最近我突然意识到，确定性有多么奢侈，在很多情况下都是如此，包括乌克兰目前的现实。
Certainty affords a state a great deal of strategic luxury, and because certainty is in such short supply for many Ukrainians, they have to actively create it.
确定性为国家提供了大量的战略奢侈，而由于许多乌克兰人缺乏确定性，他们必须积极创造确定性。
That sentiment runs strong through each of the commentaries in this week’s digest.
这种情绪贯穿于本周摘要中的每一篇评论中。
One way Ukrainian commentators constantly argue for creating more certainty is by expanding the country’s strategic partnerships, primarily by increasing both the quality and quantity of high-value exports.
乌克兰评论员不断主张创造更多确定性的一种方法是扩大该国的战略伙伴关系，主要是提高高价值出口的质量和数量。
This week’s example is Victor Taran’s argument that Ukraine should become an innovation leader in niche, heavily AI-integrated defense technology.
本周的例子是维克多·塔兰（Victor Taran）的论点，即乌克兰应该成为利基、高度人工智能集成的国防技术的创新领导者。
Even outside the defense sector, AI and digitalization are increasingly discussed as ways for Ukraine to market itself as a forward-thinking creator of things other countries would benefit from investing in.
即使在国防部门之外，人工智能和数字化也越来越多地被讨论为乌克兰将自己推销为具有前瞻性思维的创造者的方式，其他国家将从投资中受益。
Many authors seem to believe that the more external ties Ukraine has as an equal partner, rather than an aid recipient, the more certain its future will be.
许多作者似乎认为，乌克兰作为平等伙伴而不是援助接受者的对外联系越多，其未来就越确定。
That sentiment is in tension with an equal number of commentaries calling for Ukraine to build up its own resilience internally and participate only in the few external partnerships that serve its current needs.
这种情绪与同样数量的评论相矛盾，这些评论呼吁乌克兰在内部建立自己的韧性，并只参与满足其当前需求的少数外部伙伴关系。
It’s a classic dilemma of globalism versus nationalism.
这是全球主义与民族主义的典型困境。
It’s an imperfect framework, and yes, reduces Ukraine’s position to a false dichotomy, but a useful one for this purpose.
这是一个不完美的框架，是的，它使乌克兰的立场陷入了错误的二分法，但对于此目的来说是一个有用的框架。
Weighing complex strategic trade-offs to the extent we do in the United States is a luxury reserved for states that feel certain about their futures, and Ukraine’s either-or debates reflect a country without that luxury.
像美国那样权衡复杂的战略权衡是为那些对自己的未来感到确定的国家保留的一种奢侈，而乌克兰的非此即彼的辩论反映了一个没有这种奢侈的国家。
It fascinates me how, week after week, art is discussed as such a foundational piece of this equation.
让我着迷的是，艺术如何一周又一周地被作为这个方程式的基础部分进行讨论。
We’ve seen art touted as a form of resistance and resilience and as a source of positive perception abroad, but this week, I’m also seeing it as a way for Ukrainians to create certainty.
我们已经看到艺术被吹捧为一种抵抗和韧性的形式，以及国外积极认知的来源，但本周，我也将其视为乌克兰人创造确定性的一种方式。
What’s particularly interesting is that art and culture serve both a deeply internal and an external purpose.
特别有趣的是，艺术和文化既具有深刻的内部目的，又具有外部目的。
You could technically say that about any of the ways Ukraine is trying to create certainty, but art may be the one that speaks most directly to both the mind and spirit.
从技术上讲，你可以说乌克兰试图创造确定性的任何方式，但艺术可能是最直接与思想和精神对话的方式。
As an artist myself, I constantly think about why I’m creating something.
作为一名艺术家，我不断思考自己为什么要创作某些东西。
For many, the purpose of art is to be observed and perceived by others.
对于许多人来说，艺术的目的是被他人观察和感知。
But any artist knows the value of art can never lie in the hands of those observing it, or creativity loses the freedom it is meant to have.
但任何艺术家都知道，艺术的价值永远不会掌握在观察它的人手中，否则创造力就会失去它应有的自由。
I swear this is going somewhere, just stick with me.
我发誓这件事一定会发生的，跟着我吧。
In Ukraine, art serves the very tangible purpose of building positive cultural associations abroad, another way the country ensures international partners see it as significant.
在乌克兰，艺术服务于在国外建立积极的文化联系的具体目的，这是该国确保国际合作伙伴认为艺术具有重要意义的另一种方式。
It’s harder to stop providing aid to, or making trade deals with, a country whose rich cultural history resonates worldwide.
对于一个其丰富的文化历史在全世界引起共鸣的国家来说，停止提供援助或与其达成贸易协议更加困难。
Cultural relevance is significant soft power, and Ukrainians know that.
文化相关性是重要的软实力，乌克兰人知道这一点。
At the micro level, when you’re living with daily uncertainty about the future of your home, your children, and your country, art is also a way to mentally endure.
在微观层面上，当你每天对家庭、孩子和国家的未来充满不确定性时，艺术也是一种精神上的承受方式。
It’s a way to create personal certainty that life holds a meaning deeper than the circumstances you’ve been thrown into or what’s happening to you.
这是一种让个人确定性的方式，即生活比你所处的环境或发生在你身上的事情更有意义。
Of course, the search for certainty isn’t unique to Ukraine, but I can say with 100 percent certainty (wink) that we in the United States take some inherent certainty about our future for granted.
当然，寻求确定性并不是乌克兰独有的，但我可以百分百肯定地说（眨眼），我们美国人认为我们的未来的一些固有的确定性是理所当然的。
Ukrainians debate their future knowing their country’s survival is at stake.
乌克兰人知道自己国家的生存受到威胁，正在讨论自己的未来。
We debate ours assuming it isn’t, and that assumption shapes everything about how we think strategically, even if it shouldn’t.
我们争论我们的假设，假设事实并非如此，而这个假设决定了我们如何进行战略思考的一切，即使它不应该如此。
Why the United States enjoys this luxury could fill volumes.
为什么美国能享受这种奢侈，这可以说得够多了。
If somebody decides to write about it, make sure to include me in the royalties.
如果有人决定写这篇文章，请确保将我包含在版税中。
As Ukraine continues to navigate its place in a messy geopolitical landscape, I think we’ll keep witnessing a fierce debate over how it solidifies its significance.
随着乌克兰继续在混乱的地缘政治格局中找到自己的位置，我认为我们将继续见证关于它如何巩固其重要性的激烈辩论。
Is it by tying itself to as many external partners as possible, or is the intimate, internal identity of simply being Ukrainian enough?
是通过与尽可能多的外部合作伙伴联系起来，还是仅仅作为乌克兰人就足够亲密、内在的身份？