Shows of Strength and Signs of Strain
Welcome to The Adversarial.
欢迎来到对抗者。
Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists.
每隔一周，我们将为您提供有关美国最大挑战者的专家分析：中国、俄罗斯、伊朗、朝鲜和圣战分子。
Read more below.
阅读下文了解更多内容。
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In late September, U.S. and Iranian negotiators engaged in indirect talks for the first time since the memorandum of understanding they struck in June fell apart.
9月下旬，美国和伊朗谈判代表自6月达成的谅解备忘录破裂以来首次进行间接会谈。
On Oct.
十月号
8, U.S. President Donald Trump said “ productive discussions ” were underway.
8 日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，“富有成效的讨论”正在进行中。
But it will take some doing to break the deadlock.
但要打破僵局还需要采取一些措施。
Tehran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week carries diminishing allure for Washington, as traffic through the chokepoint has trended upward.
德黑兰提出在一周内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的提议对华盛顿的吸引力正在减弱，因为通过该阻塞点的交通量呈上升趋势。
Also, Iran’s demand for upfront financial returns only underscores the growing economic strain the regime is facing under U.S. pressure, and Tehran continues to insist that any nonproliferation discussions should come after an initial stage provides access to financial assets and sanctions relief.
此外，伊朗对预先财务回报的要求只会凸显该政权在美国压力下面临的日益严重的经济压力，德黑兰继续坚持认为，任何防扩散讨论都应该在提供获得金融资产和解除制裁的初始阶段之后进行。
Taken together, the Trump administration likely sees the proposition as far from satisfactory — requiring financial concessions that Washington is reluctant to concede and providing no guarantee of progress on resuming inspections or securing limits on Iran’s nuclear program.
总的来说，特朗普政府可能认为这一提议远不能令人满意——要求华盛顿方面不愿让步的财政让步，并且不保证在恢复检查或限制伊朗核计划方面取得进展。
The heightened rate of attacks on vessels in recent days is likely Tehran’s way of signaling that it can still inject more volatility into the market, but that won’t be enough to force Washington into accepting Iranian terms.
最近几天对船只的袭击频率增加可能是德黑兰发出的信号，表明它仍然可以给市场带来更多波动，但这不足以迫使华盛顿接受伊朗的条件。
Furthermore, a window of opportunity for Iran will soon close, as the Trump administration is less likely to feel pressure to address high oil prices and an unpopular war after the midterm elections on Nov.
此外，伊朗的机会之窗很快就会关闭，因为特朗普政府不太可能在 11 月 11 日中期选举后感受到解决高油价和不受欢迎的战争的压力。
3.
3.
The Sept.
九月。
23–25 Washington summit between Trump and Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping featured pageantry and unusually high levels of diplomatic protocol but achieved little of clear substance.
特朗普与中国国家主席习近平于 23 日至 25 日在华盛顿举行的峰会盛况空前，外交礼仪水平异常高，但几乎没有取得任何明确的实质性成果。
While the Chinese side had reason to celebrate Trump’s very respectful reception of Xi, Beijing will be less pleased about the notable revelation of Xi’s apparent health problems.
虽然中方有理由庆祝特朗普对习近平的非常尊重的接待，但北京方面对习近平明显的健康问题的显着披露将不太高兴。
Post-summit reports — of a White House “hold room” for Xi to rest, a declined working lunch, and video of him leaning on his wife on the stairs — followed his decision not to attend a BRICS leaders’ dinner earlier in September.
9月初，习近平决定不参加金砖国家领导人晚宴，随后有报道称，白宫为习近平提供了“休息空间”，工作午餐被拒绝，还有他在楼梯上靠在妻子身上的视频。
In the Chinese system, uncertainty about the top leader’s health carries serious implications.
在中国体制中，最高领导人健康状况的不确定性会带来严重影响。
Perceptions of declining health change people’s expectations of the potential succession plan, which in turn shifts power and authority away from the current leader.
对健康状况下降的看法改变了人们对潜在继任计划的期望，这反过来又转移了现任领导人的权力和权威。
Questions about Xi’s health will create new power centers within the Chinese leadership and challenge the sustainability of Xi’s policies.
有关习近平健康状况的问题将在中国领导层内部产生新的权力中心，并对习近平政策的可持续性构成挑战。
It could also have a major impact over China’s timeline on Taiwan: If Xi is ill and a power transition is in the pipeline, Beijing would likely push the issue of Taiwan down the road until there is clarity on the domestic political front.
这也可能对中国在台湾问题上的时间表产生重大影响：如果习近平生病并且权力过渡正在进行中，北京可能会推迟台湾问题的解决，直到国内政治局势明朗为止。
For similar reasons, China would seek stability in relations with the United States until a new leader consolidates power.
出于类似的原因，中国将寻求与美国的关系稳定，直到新领导人巩固权力。
Ukraine is looking at a very dark winter ahead.
乌克兰即将迎来一个非常黑暗的冬天。
Russia is determined to pummel the Ukrainian economy and energy infrastructure with the objective of making life as miserable as possible for Ukrainians and breaking the Ukrainian economy.
俄罗斯决心打击乌克兰经济和能源基础设施，目的是让乌克兰人的生活尽可能悲惨，并摧毁乌克兰经济。
Russia holds out hope that, as the costs grow to keep Ukraine alive, support from the European Union — which is now Ukraine’s main financial backer — will wobble.
俄罗斯抱有这样的希望：随着维持乌克兰生存的成本不断增加，来自欧盟（目前是乌克兰主要财政支持者）的支持将会动摇。
Neither, however, is at all likely to fold anytime soon.
然而，这两家公司都不可能很快倒闭。
In fact, Ukraine continues to hold firm on the frontlines, even making some marginal gains, despite the increased attacks on Ukrainian cities.
事实上，尽管乌克兰城市遭受的袭击有所增加，但乌克兰仍然坚守在前线，甚至取得了一些边际收益。
The European Union has multiple financial avenues to support Ukraine in the years ahead.
欧盟在未来几年有多种财政途径支持乌克兰。
Despite fears that Russia would conduct a mass mobilization in the wake of the Sept.
尽管担心俄罗斯会在九月事件后进行大规模动员。
18–20 parliamentary elections with the goal of overwhelming Ukraine’s lightly held frontline positions, this has not yet materialized.
18-20日举行的议会选举的目标是压倒乌克兰的前线阵地，但这一目标尚未实现。
Instead, Russia will hit Ukraine’s cities and is increasingly targeting Europe through an ever-increasing flurry of hybrid attacks.
相反，俄罗斯将袭击乌克兰的城市，并通过不断增加的混合攻击越来越多地将目标瞄准欧洲。
With the United States no longer playing a central role in supporting Ukraine militarily, the war has increasingly become a European-Russian proxy war.
随着美国不再在军事支持乌克兰方面发挥核心作用，这场战争日益成为欧洲与俄罗斯的代理人战争。
There is now significant concern in European capitals that this might spin out of control.
现在欧洲各国政府都非常担心这种情况可能会失控。
With Washington showing little interest in Russia’s hybrid attacks, Europe is increasingly on its own.
由于华盛顿对俄罗斯的混合攻击兴趣不大，欧洲越来越孤立无援。
In the longer term, European leaders will have to decide how to recalibrate their policy toward Ukraine and Russia without any assumption of U.S. support.
从长远来看，欧洲领导人将不得不决定如何在不假设美国支持的情况下重新调整对乌克兰和俄罗斯的政策。
North Korea’s military activity and rhetoric have been unusually intense over the past three weeks, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un overseeing munitions inspections and several missile and rocket tests, including what Pyongyang called an AI-guided hypersonic intermediate-range missile , alongside a flurry of official statements pledging further military modernization.
过去三周，朝鲜的军事活动和言论异常激烈，朝鲜领导人金正恩监督了弹药检查以及多次导弹和火箭试验，其中包括平壤所谓的人工智能制导高超音速中程导弹，同时还发表了一系列承诺进一步实现军事现代化的官方声明。
The concentration and timing of these developments are intended to demonstrate Pyongyang’s nuclear resolve and strategic autonomy during Xi’s visit to Washington and at a time when Trump has expressed interest in reviving talks with North Korea.
这些事态发展的集中度和时机旨在在习近平访问华盛顿期间以及特朗普表示有兴趣恢复与朝鲜的谈判之际展示平壤的核决心和战略自主权。
U.S. and Chinese readouts acknowledged that Trump and Xi discussed North Korea but omitted any mention of denuclearization — a notable departure from the May summit .
美国和中国的报道承认特朗普和习近平讨论了朝鲜问题，但没有提及无核化——这与五月峰会明显不同。
However, just a few days before the summit, U.S., South Korean, and Japanese foreign ministers reiterated a shared commitment to complete denuclearization.
然而，就在峰会前几天，美国、韩国和日本外长重申了实现完全无核化的共同承诺。
Pyongyang has been clear that it considers its nuclear program non-negotiable and strongly implied that accepting its nuclear status would be a precondition for any talks with Washington.
平壤明确表示，其核计划不容谈判，并强烈暗示接受其核地位将是与华盛顿进行任何谈判的先决条件。
The White House’s move to de-emphasize the issue might be designed to create space for diplomacy, but when other parts of the government, such as the State Department, continue to call for denuclearization, it confuses the message to North Korea.
白宫淡化这一问题的举动可能是为了创造外交空间，但当国务院等政府其他部门继续呼吁无核化时，这就混淆了向朝鲜传达的信息。
Tensions are also high between the two Koreas over the recent landmine explosion in the demilitarized zone.
由于最近在非军事区发生地雷爆炸，朝韩两国之间的紧张关系也十分紧张。
South Korea blamed North Korea, which denied responsibility.
韩国指责朝鲜，但朝鲜否认对此负责。
North Korean references to the Military Demarcation Line as a sovereign border are consistent with its hostile two-state policy and point to a rapidly eroding armistice regime.
朝鲜将军事分界线视为主权边界，与其敌对的两国政策一致，并表明停战制度正在迅速削弱。
Pyongyang’s move away from the armistice language and protocols increases the risk of additional disputes as North Korea continues to arm what it views as its southern border.
随着朝鲜继续武装其认为的南部边境，平壤放弃停战语言和协议增加了发生更多争端的风险。
An increasingly fortified, contested border raises the odds that an incident derails whatever opening the White House is pursuing.
边境戒备日益加强，争议不断，一旦发生事件，白宫所追求的任何开放都可能会脱轨。
On Sept.
九月。
30, the co-pilot of a Flydubai flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv attacked the pilot, reportedly trying to crash into Tel Aviv’s airport, before crew and passengers subdued him and made an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia.
1月30日，从迪拜飞往特拉维夫的迪拜航空航班的副驾驶袭击了飞行员，据报道试图撞向特拉维夫机场，但机组人员和乘客制服了他并紧急降落在沙特阿拉伯。
Media reports identified the attacker as an Omani citizen previously flagged for extremist views, however, his motives and connections are not yet fully clear.
媒体报道称，袭击者是一名阿曼公民，此前曾被标记为极端主义观点，但他的动机和联系尚不完全清楚。
Despite the lack of crucial details, the incident is significant to terrorism.
尽管缺乏关键细节，该事件对恐怖主义来说意义重大。
Twenty-five years after the 9/11 attacks , the event highlights the ongoing risk that terrorists could use civilian planes as a weapon.
9/11 袭击二十五年后，这一事件凸显了恐怖分子可能使用民用飞机作为武器的持续风险。
It demonstrates security vulnerabilities that allowed a crew member with extremist views from a country with no diplomatic relations with Israel to gain a position as a co-pilot on a flight to Tel Aviv.
它表明了安全漏洞，使得一名来自与以色列没有外交关系的国家的具有极端主义观点的机组人员能够在飞往特拉维夫的航班上担任副驾驶。
The attack is already inspiring debate about security measures in Israel.
这次袭击已经引发了有关以色列安全措施的争论。
Globally, it will renew discussion about the extent of screening for flight crews and might also inspire further contingencies involving civilian interventions.
在全球范围内，它将重新引发关于对机组人员进行筛查的程度的讨论，并可能引发涉及民事干预的进一步突发事件。
Ahead of Israeli elections later this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to use the event to boost his political stature, while opponents are using it to revisit the government’s Oct.
在本月晚些时候的以色列选举之前，以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡正试图利用这一活动来提升他的政治地位，而反对者则利用它来重新审视政府的十月选举。
7 failures and what they call its efforts to block an independent inquiry.
7次失败以及他们所说的阻止独立调查的努力。
The longer-term impacts will depend on whether investigations determine that the co-pilot was inspired or aided by Sunni jihadist groups, had links with Iran, or acted on another motive.
长期影响将取决于调查是否确定副驾驶受到逊尼派圣战组织的启发或帮助、与伊朗有联系或出于其他动机行事。
If Israel determines he had links to Tehran, it would bolster Israeli politicians who favor war with Iran.
如果以色列确定他与德黑兰有联系，这将支持支持与伊朗开战的以色列政客。