762: Apocalypse Creep - This American Life
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00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #762 | February 11, 2022 762: Apocalypse Creep Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.
00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 762 集 | 2022 年 2 月 11 日 762：启示录蠕变 注：《美国生活》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。
If you are able, we strongly encourage you to listen to the audio, which includes emotion and emphasis that's not on the page.
如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。
Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.
文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。
Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.
请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。
Prologue: Prologue Ira Glass From WBZ Chicago, it's This American Life.
序言：序言 来自 WBZ 芝加哥的 Ira Glass，这就是美国生活。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
And let me just, I'm just going to reach out and retune your signal here a little bit from whatever Public Radio station or podcast streaming service you're listening to.
让我简单说一下，我将伸出手来，从您正在收听的任何公共广播电台或播客流媒体服务中稍微重新调整一下您的信号。
And where we're going to is 101.5 Truckee Tahoe Radio in northern California near Lake Tahoe.
我们要去的地方是位于加州北部太浩湖附近的 101.5 Truckee Tahoe Radio。
And I'm going to retune from today to April of last year.
我将从今天重新调整到去年四月。
It's springtime and the opening weekend of fishing season, and that means it's time for the return of the 101.5 Fishing Report, brought to you every week by Mountain Hardware and Sports in Truckee.
现在是春天，也是钓鱼季节的第一个周末，这意味着 101.5 钓鱼报告又到了，该报告由特拉基的 Mountain Hardware and Sports 每周为您带来。
101.5 is the one radio station in Truckee, and the Fishing Report runs Friday, Saturday, Sunday every week, three times a day, during the summer, which is about right for a mountain town filled with lots of people who are there because they love the outdoors.
101.5 是特拉基唯一的广播电台，《钓鱼报告》每周周五、周六、周日播出，夏季期间每天播出三期，这对于一个山城里挤满了热爱户外活动的人来说正好合适。
Now let's talk fishing.
现在我们来谈谈钓鱼。
The Truckee River has great flows for springtime right now.
特拉基河现在春天水量很大。
It's not too high and minimal snow melt is happening.
气温不太高，而且融雪量也很少。
Please be sure to wade carefully near the shorelines.
请务必在海岸线附近小心涉水。
That's where the fish are hanging out, so be sure not to scare them.
那是鱼儿出没的地方，所以一定不要吓到它们。
Each fishing report has lots of helpful information about how much water is flowing through the Truckee and Little Truckee Rivers at various spots, which affects fishing.
每份捕鱼报告都有大量有用的信息，说明有多少水流经特拉基河和小特拉基河的各个地点，这会影响捕鱼。
And then there are long sections that, I have to admit, even though I grew up fishing on the Chesapeake Bay, are complete gibberish to me.
我不得不承认，还有很长的部分，尽管我是在切萨皮克湾钓鱼长大的，但对我来说完全是胡言乱语。
Indicator and euro nymphing are producing the best results for anglers.
指示器和欧洲若虫为钓鱼者带来了最好的结果。
Dry fly favorites include EC Caddis, Parachute Adams, and Cripple March Browns.
最受欢迎的干蝇包括 EC Caddis、Parachute Adams 和 Cripple March Browns。
Fly fishing.
飞蝇钓鱼。
A listener to 101.5, Emily McAllister, sent us this Fishing Report and a bunch of others, because this past summer, as she listened, she noticed that the 101.5 Fishing Report-- this steady, sturdy, unflappable piece of angling boosterism-- seemed to be telling the kind of story that hadn't ever shown up there before in the Fishing Report.
101.5 的一位听众艾米丽·麦卡利斯特 (Emily McAllister) 向我们发送了这份钓鱼报告和其他一些报告，因为去年夏天，当她收听时，她注意到 101.5 钓鱼报告——这个稳定、坚固、镇定的钓鱼助推器——似乎正在讲述一种以前在钓鱼报告中从未出现过的故事。
The oddness began in July.
奇怪的事情从七月开始。
Well, right out of the chute this week, anglers are advised to stop fishing the Truckee River from noon until about 6:00 PM due to warm water temperatures.
好吧，本周一出槽，由于水温升高，建议垂钓者从中午到下午 6:00 左右停止在特拉基河钓鱼。
Catch and release is very difficult on the fish right now in the afternoon.
现在下午，鱼的捕捞和放生非常困难。
So please, fish only early mornings and the last light of day.
所以，请只在清晨和最后一缕阳光下钓鱼。
So that was the start.
这就是开始。
But it was really two weeks later, August 6, that Emily's ears perked up when The Fishing Report told people to carry a piece of gear lots of us don't usually associate with fishing.
但真正是两周后，也就是 8 月 6 日，当《钓鱼报告》告诉人们携带一件我们很多人通常不会与钓鱼联系在一起的装备时，艾米丽的耳朵就竖了起来。
Anglers are still being advised not to fish the river during peak temperatures.
仍然建议钓鱼者不要在气温最高时在河里钓鱼。
Please be sure to bring a thermometer to test the temperatures before casting.
铸造前请务必携带温度计测试温度。
Anything above 66 degrees makes it very strenuous on the fish.
任何超过 66 度的温度都会使鱼非常吃力。
Bring a thermometer.
带上温度计。
It was the warmest summer on record in California, not much rain or snow that year.
那是加州有记录以来最温暖的夏天，那一年没有太多雨或雪。
Hence, the warm water.
因此，温水。
Then at the end of August, something else made its way into The Fishing Report.
然后在八月底，《渔业报告》中又出现了一些其他内容。
To provide better public and firefighter safety, due to extreme fire conditions throughout northern California and strained firefighting resources throughout the country, the Forest Service has implemented a temporary closure of nine national forests in California.
为了提供更好的公众和消防员安全，由于加州北部的极端火灾情况和全国消防资源紧张，林业局已暂时关闭加州九个国家森林。
Anglers are currently prohibited from fishing Boca, Prosser, Stampede, and Jackson Meadows reservoirs, Lakes Basin, Little Truckee River, and any section of the Truckee River that's on National Forest land until September 7.
目前，9 月 7 日之前，钓鱼者禁止在博卡、普罗瑟、斯坦皮德和杰克逊梅多斯水库、湖泊盆地、小特拉基河以及特拉基河国家林地上的任何河段钓鱼。
He does point out two places where you still can fish, though he says water levels there are very low.
他确实指出了两个仍然可以钓鱼的地方，尽管他说那里的水位非常低。
And that's it for this week's Fishing Report.
这就是本周的钓鱼报告。
Until next time, tight lines and hope for rain.
直到下次，排队很紧，希望能下雨。
They don't get rain.
他们不下雨。
Things don't improve.
事情并没有改善。
There's the Dixie fire to the north of Lake Tahoe and the Caldor fire to the south.
太浩湖北部有迪克西大火，南部有卡尔多大火。
A day after this report runs, a mandatory evacuation is ordered for a big area south of Lake Tahoe.
本报告发布第二天，太浩湖以南的大片地区就被下令强制疏散。
Lots of other people flee, as well.
许多其他人也逃离了。
And Truckee's like a ghost town.
特拉基就像一座鬼城。
But a week later, the September 3 Fishing Report still goes on the air, cheerful as ever.
但一周后，9月3日的钓鱼报告仍在播出，一如既往地令人愉快。
It's time to stop wishing and get fishing.
是时候停止愿望并去钓鱼了。
This is the weekly 101.5 Fishing Report, brought to you by Mountain Hardware and Sports in Truckee.
这是每周 101.5 钓鱼报告，由特拉基的 Mountain Hardware and Sports 为您带来。
The Forest Service has temporarily closed all national forests in the state.
林务局已暂时关闭该州所有国家森林。
These forest closures include local rivers and reservoirs and affect where anglers can fish.
这些森林关闭包括当地的河流和水库，并影响钓鱼者的钓鱼地点。
Please respect these current closures.
请尊重目前的关闭情况。
The tentative date for forests to reopen is September 13.
森林重新开放的暂定日期是 9 月 13 日。
OK, let's jump ahead a month to October 15.
好的，让我们提前一个月到 10 月 15 日。
Evacuation orders have been lifted.
疏散命令已解除。
The Caldor and Dixie fires will soon be out.
卡尔多和迪克西的大火很快就会被扑灭。
But there's a new problem.
但有一个新问题。
The flows on the Truckee River are minimal these days, with flows coming out of Lake Tahoe at around 1 CFS.
这些天特拉基河的流量很少，从太浩湖流出的流量约为 1 CFS。
Yes, that's 1 cubic foot per second.
是的，即每秒 1 立方英尺。
The Upper Truckee River can't really be fished.
特拉基河上游确实不能钓鱼。
The Truckee River's flows for this week are Tahoe City, 0.1.
本周特拉基河的流量为塔霍市，0.1。
That's right, less than 0.
没错，小于0。
The water is not moving.
水没有动。
I was curious if the guy who reads the fishing report noticed how weird it got last year, so we reached out.
我很好奇读钓鱼报告的人是否注意到去年的情况有多么奇怪，所以我们联系了。
He was glad to talk.
他很高兴说话。
He's the kind of old-school DJ who goes by one name on the air, and that name is Dondo.
他是一位老派 DJ，在节目中只有一个名字，那就是 Dondo。
Off the air, he also has a last name-- Darue.
在广播之外，他还有一个姓氏——达鲁（Darue）。
Dondo says he definitely noticed how out there The Fishing Report got last year when the water flows dropped so quickly.
唐多说，他确实注意到了《钓鱼报告》去年水流下降得如此之快的情况。
He'd never seen water flows get that low.
他从来没有见过水流这么低。
Then the forests were closed down to fishing, which had never happened for so long.
然后森林就被禁渔了，这么长时间以来从来没有发生过这样的情况。
And then on top of that, we had a series of catastrophic fires last year.
除此之外，去年我们还发生了一系列灾难性火灾。
And it all sort of played its way through The Fishing Report.
这一切都在《钓鱼报告》中得到了体现。
And you get the information, and I want to make it upbeat and interesting.
你得到了信息，我想让它变得乐观和有趣。
But reading the raw copy, I would go, oh man.
但读了原始版本，我会去，天哪。
How-- ugh.
怎么——呃。
You know?
你知道？
Yeah.
是的。
So what do you do to make it upbeat?
那么你会做什么来让它变得乐观呢？
Because you definitely make it upbeat.
因为你绝对让它变得乐观。
Well, it helps to have a music bed [LAUGHS] that's kind of upbeat.
嗯，拥有一张乐观的音乐床会有所帮助[笑]。
And although it is hard sometimes when everything's on fire and COVID variants are spreading like crazy and you're trying to be upbeat, like oh, and here's the new Weezer.
尽管有时很难，当一切都着火了，新冠病毒变种疯狂传播时，你试图保持乐观，就像哦，这是新的威泽。
[LAUGHTER] It's kind of hard to make that transition.
[笑声] 实现这种转变有点困难。
Yeah.
是的。
It's kind of scarier because you're so cheerful about it.
这有点可怕，因为你对此很高兴。
It's almost like it's scarier because we've adapted, you know what I mean?
这几乎就像它更可怕，因为我们已经适应了，你知道我的意思吗？
Yeah.
是的。
I never really thought about that, but I think you're right.
我从来没有真正考虑过这一点，但我认为你是对的。
There are plenty of times-- thankfully, it's radio-- when you go into something and you turn the microphone off and I just rest my forehead in my hand and go, oh man.
有很多次——谢天谢地，是广播——当你开始做某件事，然后关掉麦克风，我只是用手托着额头，然后就走了，天哪。
There's been a lot of that this last year.
去年这样的事情还蛮多的。
Dondo doesn't just do the fishing report on 101.5.
Dondo 不只是在 101.5 做钓鱼报告。
He's also the DJ during morning drivetime, three hours every weekday.
他还是工作日早上开车时的 DJ，每周工作三个小时。
And he says he tries to keep it lighter because they're a music station.
他说他尽量保持轻松，因为他们是一个音乐电台。
People aren't coming to them for the news, really.
人们并不是来找他们了解新闻的，真的。
He's been doing radio 42 years.
他从事广播工作已经 42 年了。
He's older than anybody else at the station.
他比车站里的其他人都年长。
Calls his daily show "Yesterday's Morning Show of Tomorrow Today," which maybe gives you a feeling for his sense of humor.
把他的每日节目称为“昨天的早间秀，明天的今天”，这或许能让你感受到他的幽默感。
He does fish himself, but he only went out once last season.
他自己也钓鱼，但上赛季只出去过一次。
It was hard living around Truckee and Tahoe last summer.
去年夏天，特拉基和塔霍周围的生活很艰难。
It's a place where lots of houses don't have AC, and because of the air quality, you were supposed to stay inside with the windows closed during unusually hot days and nights of almost no rain.
那里的很多房子都没有空调，而且由于空气质量的原因，在异常炎热的白天和几乎没有下雨的夜晚，你应该待在室内并关上窗户。
Then the Caldor fire got close to them with so much smoke.
然后卡尔多大火带着浓烟逼近了他们。
And at its worst, it was like twilight in the middle of the day.
最糟糕的时候，就像中午的黄昏。
When the wind shifted, Dondo says, you could taste what was being burned.
东多说，当风向改变时，你可以尝到被烧毁的东西的味道。
It was hard to sleep at night, even with three air purifiers they bought for their house.
即使家里买了三台空气净化器，晚上也很难入睡。
Dondo's lived in the area most of his life and said he's never been so frightened that they'd lose their home.
东多一生大部分时间都住在这个地区，他说他从来没有如此害怕过他们会失去家园。
It was scary.
太可怕了。
The fear was really palpable.
那种恐惧实在是太明显了。
And I tried not to talk about it much around my kids-- they're 10 and 14-- because they were frightened by it, as well.
我尽量不在我的孩子们面前谈论太多——他们分别是 10 岁和 14 岁——因为他们也对此感到害怕。
When you can't see anything, you know what's going on.
当你看不到任何东西时，你就知道发生了什么。
And my son, who's our youngest, he would ask me about every other day, Dad, where do we go if we get evacuated?
我的儿子，我们最小的孩子，他每隔一天就会问我，爸爸，如果我们疏散了，我们该去哪里？
And we put yellow dots, little yellow, sticky dots on everything in the house that if we had time, we would grab and throw in the car.
我们在房子里的所有东西上都贴上黄点，小黄点，粘性的点，如果我们有时间，我们会抓住并扔进车里。
Yeah.
是的。
Dondo Darue It was really kind of apocalyptic, in a way.
Dondo Darue 从某种程度上来说，这确实是一种世界末日。
One of the things I would say on the air was like, oh, we have another Martian sunrise today.
我在广播中会说的一件事是，哦，今天我们又看到了火星日出。
And just this orange-- the sun was just a colored ball that kind of came up over the horizon.
就这个橙色——太阳只是一个从地平线升起的彩色球。
Do you feel like that's kind of snuck up on you these last few years, this apocalyptic feeling?
你是否觉得这几年来，这种世界末日般的感觉悄然降临在你身上？
Yeah, to the point where it seems like, well, this is how it's going to be every year.
是的，似乎每年都会如此。
This apocalyptic feeling that so many of us have, it's not the kind of apocalypse that happens in an instant, like nuclear bombs going off or, I don't know, aliens invading.
我们很多人都有这种世界末日的感觉，它不是那种瞬间发生的世界末日，就像核弹爆炸，或者，我不知道，外星人入侵。
It's climate change, so it's slow.
这是气候变化，所以速度很慢。
Dondo says, in previous years, he definitely noticed summers getting hotter, longer stretches without rain or snow.
东多说，前几年，他确实注意到夏天越来越热，没有雨雪的时间也越来越长。
And then finally, it feels like we're past a tipping point.
最后，感觉我们已经过了一个转折点。
Or maybe we're not.
或者也许我们不是。
It's hard to be sure.
很难确定。
It's like apocalypse creep, the end of the world that we know oozing up around us, one hot day at a time.
这就像世界末日的蔓延，我们所知道的世界末日正在我们周围蔓延，一天又一天炎热。
Today on our program, we have stories of people in what seems like, from the outside, pretty extreme situations.
今天在我们的节目中，我们讲述了人们在外部看来非常极端的情况下的故事。
And they have to decide to notice the creep or to ignore it, to act or not to act.
他们必须决定是注意到这种蠕变还是忽略它，采取行动还是不采取行动。
Stay with us.
留在我们身边。
Act one, Apocalypse Now-ish.
第一幕，现代启示录。
[MUSIC - MALVINA REYNOLDS, "LITTLE BOXES"]
[音乐 - 马尔维娜·雷诺兹，“小盒子”]
(SINGING) Little boxes on the hillside, little boxes made of ticky-tacky.
（唱歌）山坡上的小盒子，用粘稠物制成的小盒子。
Little boxes on the hillside, little boxes all the same.
山坡上的小盒子，都是一样的小盒子。
Pacifica, California, is a community of about 40,000 people on the ocean just south of San Francisco.
加利福尼亚州帕西菲卡是一个拥有约 40,000 人的社区，位于旧金山以南的海边。
This song that you're hearing, "Little Boxes," it was written about the tract housing that was thrown up in neighboring Daly City after the Second World War.
您现在听到的这首歌“Little Boxes”是关于第二次世界大战后邻近的戴利市废弃的大片房屋而写的。
Those same tract houses went up in Pacifica.
帕西菲卡也建起了同样的房屋。
(SINGING) There's a pink one and a green one and a blue one and a yellow one.
（唱）有一个粉色的，一个绿色的，一个蓝色的，一个黄色的。
And they're all made out of ticky tacky and they all look just the same.
它们都是用俗气的东西制成的，而且看起来都一样。
Those tract houses are actually pretty nice, even if they are the same.
这些房子实际上很漂亮，即使它们是一样的。
And these days, there are newer, fancier houses, too.
如今，也出现了更新、更豪华的房屋。
Some tech types have moved in.
一些科技类型已经介入。
But Pacifica is still mostly middle class, about 20% Asian, 20% Latino, 60% white, a beach town with famously great surfing and a Taco Bell that people call the world's most beautiful Taco Bell.
但帕西菲卡仍然主要是中产阶级，大约 20% 是亚洲人，20% 是拉丁裔，60% 是白人，这是一个以冲浪闻名的海滩小镇，还有被人们称为世界上最美丽的 Taco Bell 的 Taco Bell。
But Pacifica is struggling with their own slow-moving apocalypse.
但帕西菲卡正在与自己缓慢发展的末日作斗争。
Alix Spiegel explains.
阿利克斯·斯皮格尔解释道。
For the first seven years after Jane moved in, everything about her house was normal.
简搬进来后的头七年里，家里的一切都很正常。
The building itself wasn't particularly impressive.
这座建筑本身并没有特别令人印象深刻。
It was a modest three-bedroom cottage.
那是一栋朴素的三居室小屋。
But that worked fine for a single mom like her.
但这对于像她这样的单亲妈妈来说效果很好。
And since the house had been built high on a cliff in the city of Pacifica, her view of the ocean was spectacular.
由于房子建在帕西菲卡市的悬崖高处，她能看到的海景非常壮观。
Jane had always wanted to live by the sea.
简一直想住在海边。
So even though the house had drained every cent from her bank account, for Jane, it was worth it.
因此，尽管房子耗尽了她银行账户上的每一分钱，但对简来说，这是值得的。
Every night, she fell asleep to the sound of crashing waves.
每天晚上，她都是伴着海浪拍打的声音入睡的。
Or anyway, that was how it went for seven gloriously normal years until one February morning in 1998.
或者无论如何，这就是在 1998 年 2 月的一个早晨之前的七年光荣正常的岁月里发生的事情。
My bedroom was right on the ocean.
我的卧室就在海边。
It opened out onto the lovely little patio with a sliding glass door.
它通向带有滑动玻璃门的可爱的小露台。
And I was in the bedroom in my queen-size bed, sat up, and my backyard was gone.
我在卧室的大床上坐了起来，我的后院消失了。
It was so strange.
太奇怪了。
When Jane had gone to bed the night before, everything about the back of her house had been in order.
前一天晚上简上床睡觉时，房子后面的一切都井然有序。
And Jane's backyard was pretty big, not the kind that usually disappears in the middle of the night.
而且简家的后院还蛮大的，不是一般半夜就消失的那种。
It had a patio in the back that was maybe eight feet wide.
它后面有一个大约八英尺宽的露台。
Then it had ice plant that was maybe 25 feet.
然后它有大约 25 英尺高的制冰厂。
Then there was a fence that was really sturdy.
然后有一个非常坚固的栅栏。
And then on the other side of the fence, there was another eight, 10 feet.
然后在栅栏的另一边，还有另外八、十英尺。
Jane couldn't understand it.
简无法理解。
It had rained the day before, but during the night, there'd been no storm, no wind, no earthquake.
前一天下过雨，但是晚上没有暴风雨，没有风，也没有地震。
Maybe she was stuck in some strange life-like dream?
也许她陷入了某种奇怪的、栩栩如生的梦境中？
It wouldn't register, and I went out of my bedroom and into the kitchen and kind of looked out the window, back at my bedroom, and realized that part of the bedroom was not attached to anything.
它不会注册，我走出卧室，走进厨房，看看窗外，回到我的卧室，意识到卧室的一部分没有与任何东西相连。
The cliff was gone.
悬崖消失了。
Was it literally like the sea crashing beneath your house?
真的就像大海在你的房子下面汹涌澎湃吗？
Yes.
是的。
Yea, it was.
是的，确实如此。
My house was essentially-- at least the bedroom part of it-- was hanging pretty much in midair.
我的房子基本上——至少是卧室的一部分——几乎悬在半空中。
Looking back through her kitchen window at her now precariously dangling bedroom, the problem was perfectly obvious.
透过厨房的窗户回头看看现在摇摇欲坠的卧室，问题就非常明显了。
The 70-foot-tall cliff which had supported her house had quietly slid into the ocean while she slept.
当她睡觉时，支撑她房子的70英尺高的悬崖悄然滑入大海。
Just kind of went, ooh, gently into the sea.
就这样，哦，轻轻地进入大海。
Jane knew 1998 was an El Niño year, which meant stronger storms and currents in her part of northern California.
Jane 知道 1998 年是厄尔尼诺年，这意味着她所在的北加州地区将出现更强的风暴和洋流。
She also knew that stronger currents would eat away at the bluffs beneath her house more quickly.
她还知道，更强的水流会更快地侵蚀她房子下面的悬崖。
But Jane and her neighbors hadn't been worried.
但简和她的邻居并不担心。
Sure, in theory, El Niño could cause their homes to tumble into the ocean.
当然，从理论上讲，厄尔尼诺现象可能会导致他们的家园落入大海。
But in their experience, theory rarely translated into practice, so it didn't seem real.
但根据他们的经验，理论很少转化为实践，因此看起来并不真实。
In fact, two weeks earlier, Jane had had the whole street over for a raucous El Niño party.
事实上，两周前，简已经把整条街都参加了一场喧闹的厄尔尼诺派对。
And I told everybody to come, bring something, and wear flotation devices.
我告诉每个人都来，带点东西，戴上漂浮装置。
So everybody had on water rings, inner tubes, you know, life jackets.
所以每个人都穿上了水环、内胎，还有救生衣。
Jane had worn a necklace of rubber duckies strung around her neck and carried a huge drink for most of the night.
简脖子上挂着一条橡皮鸭项链，整夜都带着一大杯饮料。
Together, they all drank and danced and laughed, secure in the knowledge that, though nature might be hazardous for some, they, themselves, were safe.
他们一起喝酒、跳舞、欢笑，确信尽管大自然对某些人来说可能是危险的，但他们自己是安全的。
It was a great party.
这是一个很棒的聚会。
Alix Spiegel But then here they were, two short weeks later, and the laughably distant threat they'd mocked suddenly wasn't as laughably distant.
阿利克斯·斯皮格尔：但短短两周后，他们就来了，他们嘲笑的可笑的遥远威胁突然不再那么遥远了。
Not to Jane, and not to any of her neighbors.
不是对简，也不是对她的任何邻居。
Down the block, the same thing was happening.
在街区的另一边，同样的事情也在发生。
Everybody was losing their backyards.
每个人都在失去他们的后院。
The guy next door to me lost-- his hot tub went over that was in his backyard.
我隔壁的那个人迷路了——他后院的热水浴缸被淹了。
The other side of me, she lost her back porch.
在我的另一边，她失去了后廊。
So there was 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9--
所以有 1、2、3、4、5、6、7、8、9——
In the end, 10 houses had to be abandoned.
最终，10栋房屋不得不废弃。
Today, there are only odd-numbered houses on Jane's old street.
如今，简老街上只剩下了单数的房屋。
I know this may seem like an extreme example, but most of us are living some version of this story, dancing and drinking as the world under our feet disappears.
我知道这似乎是一个极端的例子，但我们大多数人都生活在这个故事的某个版本中，随着我们脚下的世界消失，我们跳舞喝酒。
I certainly am.
我当然是。
It's like we know something bad is coming, but it's so far away, and look, alcohol.
就好像我们知道有不好的事情即将发生，但它离我们很远，看，酒精。
I mean, we looked hysterical coming up the block.
我的意思是，我们在街区里看起来歇斯底里。
The problems and temptations of now feel very pressing.
现在的问题和诱惑让人感觉非常紧迫。
The maybe possible future, very far away and unlikely to happen in our actual lifetime, until one day, when suddenly, the future is here and there's not much to do but take inventory.
也许可能的未来，非常遥远，不太可能在我们的实际有生之年发生，直到有一天，突然，未来就在这里，除了盘点之外，没有什么可做的。
Oh my god, the patio's gone.
天哪，露台不见了。
The picnic table's gone.
野餐桌不见了。
The ice plant's gone.
制冰厂不见了。
Certainly, that's how it had been in the city of Pacifica for decades, because I got to tell you, this issue of houses in the city of Pacifica disappearing into the sea, that got started long before Jane Tollini woke up to a world without a backyard.
当然，这就是帕西菲卡市几十年来的情况，因为我必须告诉你，帕西菲卡市的房屋消失在大海中的问题，早在简·托里尼醒来发现一个没有后院的世界之前就开始了。
We've had dramatic video out of Pacifica for the past couple of weeks.
过去几周，我们在帕西菲卡拍摄了一些戏剧性的视频。
It's not getting any better, the situation there.
那里的情况并没有好转。
Cliff erosion--
悬崖侵蚀——
Many date the beginning to 1983, when the ocean swallowed the old Neiland house, a small cottage close to the beach in a neighborhood called Sharp Park.
许多故事的历史可以追溯到 1983 年，当时大海吞没了 Neiland 的老房子，那是位于夏普公园 (Sharp Park) 附近海滩附近的一座小小屋。
For a while after that, there was just a smattering of disappearances-- a house here, a house there.
此后有一段时间，只有零星的失踪——这里有一所房子，那里有一所房子。
You hardly even noticed.
你几乎没有注意到。
But then around 2010, whole apartment buildings began to falter and news outlets from all over the world came to Pacifica to gawk.
但到了 2010 年左右，整栋公寓楼开始摇摇欲坠，世界各地的新闻媒体纷纷来到帕西菲卡驻足观看。
Clinging onto the edge of the Pacifica cliffs, these blocks of flats and houses won't be standing for much longer.
这些紧贴帕西菲卡悬崖边缘的公寓和房屋不会再存在太久了。
Over the years, at least 31 homes and three apartment buildings were lost, a surreal horror movie in extremely slow motion.
多年来，至少有 31 栋房屋和三栋公寓楼被毁，就像一部超现实恐怖电影的慢镜头。
But few people in town were alarmed by what was happening.
但镇上很少有人对所发生的事情感到震惊。
In fact, in an eerie kind of Stepford wife-ish way, most weren't alarmed at all.
事实上，以一种奇怪的斯特福德妻子式的方式，大多数人根本没有感到惊慌。
I heard that from resident after resident.
我从一个又一个的居民那里听到了这样的说法。
No, not really.
不，不是真的。
The town has never seemed alarmed by it.
这个小镇似乎从来没有因此而惊慌过。
We almost couldn't get them to pay attention, you know?
我们几乎无法让他们注意，你知道吗？
I would say the only people who were worried about the actual houses and apartments were the people who lived there.
我想说，唯一担心实际房屋和公寓的人是住在那里的人。
It was oh, another anomaly.
噢，又是一个异常现象。
Too bad.
太糟糕了。
There's some shock about bits and pieces breaking off, but then you settle back into what's normal.
碎片的脱落会让你感到有些震惊，但随后你就会恢复正常。
But then around 2018, something happened that many residents of Pacifica did find very alarming.
但在 2018 年左右，发生了一些让帕西菲卡的许多居民感到非常震惊的事情。
It wasn't anything as flashy as a house or apartment building disappearing into the surf.
它并不像消失在海浪中的房屋或公寓楼那么华丽。
It was a seemingly innocuous instruction nestled in an obscure guidance document put out by the California Coastal Commission, a small but powerful state agency whose job is to oversee land development along the coast.
这是一条看似无害的指令，隐藏在加州海岸委员会发布的一份不起眼的指导文件中。加州海岸委员会是一个规模虽小但实力强大的国家机构，其职责是监督沿海土地开发。
The language was dense and technical.
语言晦涩而技术性强。
But once you parsed it, the message was clear-- people in the city of Pacifica were being asked to pause their dancing, put down their drinks, and for one moment, stand and consider what to do about the creeping apocalypse that threatened the fate of their city.
但一旦你解析它，信息就很清楚了——帕西菲卡市的人们被要求暂停跳舞，放下饮料，暂时站起来，考虑如何应对威胁他们城市命运的悄然发生的灾难。
Can you just read, like, those first two paragraphs?
你能读一下前两段吗？
Actually out loud?
真的大声说出来吗？
Alix Spiegel Yeah, yeah.
阿利克斯·斯皮格尔 是的，是的。
Ah, OK.
啊，好吧。
So this is from the state of California, "Sea Level Rise Guidance."
这是来自加利福尼亚州的“海平面上升指南”。
John Keener was mayor of Pacifica in 2018 when this whole thing blew up.
2018 年整件事爆发时，约翰·基纳 (John Keener) 担任帕西菲卡市长。
On my second day in town, we sat in the living room of the home that he and his wife Kathleen share, a cream-colored tract house built in a part of town very far from the sea.
在镇上的第二天，我们坐在他和妻子凯瑟琳共同居住的房子的客厅里，那是一栋米色的大房子，建在镇上离大海很远的地方。
Together in the morning light, we read through the bureaucratic guidance that had so unsettled his city.
在晨曦中，我们一起阅读了令他的城市如此不安的官僚指导。
Climate change is upon us, affecting almost every facet of California's natural and built environment.
气候变化即将来临，几乎影响着加州自然和建筑环境的方方面面。
Ooh, actually, will you read a little bit slower so that people can understand?
哦，实际上，你能读慢一点，以便人们能够理解吗？
Now, houses falling into the ocean, that's a thing that will happen when you build them on cliffs, just due to erosion.
现在，当你把房子建在悬崖上时，由于侵蚀，房子就会掉进海里。
What the Commission was saying was that the problem was really going to accelerate in the coming decades because of sea level rise.
委员会所说的是，由于海平面上升，这个问题在未来几十年确实会加速。
The higher water would lead to more erosion and the warmer water would lead to more storms, which would also lead to more erosion.
更高的水位会导致更多的侵蚀，而更温暖的水位会导致更多的风暴，这也会导致更多的侵蚀。
According to scientists with the US Geological Survey, over the next 80 years, around half a million California homes could be impacted.
据美国地质调查局科学家称，未来 80 年，加州大约有 50 万户家庭可能受到影响。
Another study found that by 2050, around $10 billion worth of property in the state could, quote, "be underwater."
另一项研究发现，到 2050 年，该州价值约 100 亿美元的财产可能“被淹没”。
Now, the arrival of this dark future would be uneven.
现在，这个黑暗的未来的到来将是不平衡的。
For some places on the coast, it might be 10 years.
对于沿海的一些地方来说，可能需要10年。
For others, it could be 30, 40, 50.
对于其他人来说，可能是 30、40、50。
But the commission was sure that sea level rise was coming and it wasn't going to be good, so it wanted cities to create an official plan for dealing with this problem.
但该委员会确信海平面上升即将到来，而且情况不会好，因此它希望各城市制定一个官方计划来处理这个问题。
Essentially, they wanted every city to identify all of the places in their community where sea level rise would have negative impacts, then choose from this menu of strategies that are frequently used to deal with rising and more violent water.
从本质上讲，他们希望每个城市都能确定其社区中海平面上升会产生负面影响的所有地方，然后从经常用于应对水位上升和更剧烈的水位上升的策略中进行选择。
Stuff like putting houses on stilts or constructing massive seawalls that can act as a barrier and keep ocean water from eating away at the land.
比如把房子建在高跷上，或者建造巨大的海堤，作为屏障，防止海水侵蚀陆地。
And this is where the issue began, because one of the strategies the Commission wanted communities to consider was this thing called managed retreat.
这就是问题开始的地方，因为委员会希望社区考虑的策略之一就是所谓的“管理撤退”。
Retreat.
撤退。
Retreat strategies are those strategies that relocate or remove existing development out of hazard areas and limit the construction of new development in vulnerable areas.
撤退策略是指将现有开发项目搬出或移出危险区域并限制在脆弱地区建设新开发项目的策略。
Basically, the idea is that the government pays people to move or physically lift their houses off the ground and relocate them.
基本上，这个想法是政府付钱让人们搬家或将他们的房子从地面上搬起来并重新安置。
You just get houses out of the way and don't build more in places where seawater will become an overwhelming problem.
你只要把房子移开，不要在海水会成为严重问题的地方建造更多的房子。
That way, people don't wake up one morning, as Jane did--
这样一来，人们就不会像简一样早上醒来——
My backyard was gone.
我的后院不见了。
Alix Spiegel --to their bedroom dangling over the wide, crashing sea.
阿利克斯·斯皮格尔——他们的卧室悬在宽阔、波涛汹涌的大海上。
To be honest with you, I went, holy shit.
老实说，我去了，天哪。
Now, the economic arguments for managed retreat can be appealing to a town like Pacifica, which doesn't have much money.
现在，有管理的撤退的经济理由可能对像帕西菲卡这样没有多少钱的城镇很有吸引力。
See, often, to protect houses like Jane's from the ocean, you have to spend millions building a seawall or some other barrier that stops the water.
通常，为了保护像简这样的房屋免受海洋影响，您必须花费数百万美元建造海堤或其他阻挡水流的屏障。
Then you have to spend millions more to maintain it, because the ocean will eat away at the wall.
那么你就必须花费数百万美元来维护它，因为海洋会侵蚀墙壁。
Another mark against seawalls is that seawalls, which are built on land near the water, always end up killing beaches.
反对海堤的另一个标志是，建在靠近水的陆地上的海堤最终总是会杀死海滩。
Unless you trek in massive amounts of sand every couple years, which is expensive, the water washes the sand away until the water is hitting the wall itself.
除非你每隔几年就长途跋涉大量的沙子（这是昂贵的），否则水会冲走沙子，直到水冲到墙壁上。
Ergo, no more beaches.
因此，不再有海滩。
And a big part of the Commission's job is to protect California's iconic beaches.
该委员会的很大一部分工作是保护加州标志性的海滩。
Now, to be clear, there are plenty of situations where building some sort of barrier against the ocean makes economic sense-- say, a densely populated area.
现在需要明确的是，在很多情况下，建造某种海洋屏障具有经济意义——例如，人口稠密的地区。
There, yes, a seawall is expensive, but you're protecting lots of homes and businesses.
是的，在那里修建海堤很昂贵，但你可以保护许多家庭和企业。
That's why the Coastal Commission was asking Pacifica to study and evaluate managed retreat on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood basis.
这就是为什么海岸委员会要求 Pacifica 逐个社区地研究和评估管理撤退。
For his part, John saw no harm in looking at managed retreat as an option, especially since the Commission wasn't demanding the town actually choose managed retreat or anything.
就约翰而言，他认为将管理撤退作为一种选择没有什么坏处，特别是因为委员会并不要求该镇实际选择管理撤退或任何其他选择。
It definitely wasn't saying that they had to do it.
这绝对不是说他们必须这样做。
This was a guidance, but they wanted Pacifica to study it, to consider managed retreat.
这是一个指导，但他们希望帕西菲卡研究一下，考虑有管理的撤退。
So in early 2018, the city started putting together a plan to submit to the California Coastal Commission.
因此，2018 年初，该市开始制定一项计划，提交给加州海岸委员会。
They hired engineering consultants to take measurements along the coast, analyze which neighborhoods would be hardest hit and when that hitting might occur.
他们聘请工程顾问沿海岸进行测量，分析哪些社区将受到最严重的打击以及何时可能发生打击。
Then John and the consultants presented those findings in a series of public meetings meant to educate the public and get feedback.
然后约翰和顾问们在一系列公开会议上展示了这些发现，旨在教育公众并获得反馈。
Welcome to another workshop on planning for sea level rise.
欢迎参加另一场关于海平面上升规划的研讨会。
I'm John Keener, mayor of Pacifica.
我是帕西菲卡市长约翰·基纳。
In the meetings, the scientists and engineers laid out all of the options-- how they all worked, what they would cost.
在会议上，科学家和工程师列出了所有的选择——它们是如何工作的，它们的成本是多少。
For some sections of town, it was clear seawalls made the most sense.
对于城镇的某些地区来说，显然海堤是最有意义的。
For others, the consultants explained that managed retreat might be a smart option.
对于其他人来说，顾问们解释说，有管理的撤退可能是一个明智的选择。
But almost immediately, it became clear that there were citizens in Pacifica who thought managed retreat was a terrible idea.
但几乎立刻，我们就清楚地意识到，帕西菲卡的一些公民认为管理撤退是一个糟糕的主意。
They didn't even want to consider it and were disturbed that managed retreat was on the table as an option at all.
他们甚至不想考虑这一点，并且对管理撤退作为一种选择摆在桌面上感到不安。
Please don't destroy my house, which is the only thing I have.
请不要毁掉我的房子，这是我唯一拥有的东西。
My concern is that it's all going to be taken away from me by something that may or may not happen in the future.
我担心的是，这一切都会被未来可能发生或不会发生的事情夺走。
That's not right.
那是不对的。
This all kind of bothers me, and things are really confusing.
这一切都让我烦恼，事情真的很令人困惑。
People were really upset.
人们真的很沮丧。
In fact, eventually, the meetings got so intense that police were asked to attend so things didn't get out of hand.
事实上，最终，会议变得如此激烈，以至于警察被要求参加，以免事情失控。
People were demanding that the mayor stand up to the Coastal Commission and say no, categorically reject even the consideration of managed retreat.
人们要求市长勇敢地面对海岸委员会，说不，甚至断然拒绝考虑有管理的撤退。
Will you do that, they asked their mayor, John Keener?
他们问市长约翰·基纳，你会这么做吗？
Will you?
你会？
Excuse me, but you want-- Meeting Participant 5 OK, answer--
对不起，但是您想要-- 会议参与者 5 好的，回答--
God.
天哪。
You said it was question and answer.
你说这是问答。
Sir, I understand.
先生，我明白了。
But we've got to keep our cool here, OK?
但我们必须在这里保持冷静，好吗？
That frustrated man shouting "answer the question" is a resident named Jeff Guillet.
那个沮丧地喊着“回答问题”的男子是一位名叫杰夫·吉莱特的居民。
Jeff is not the kind of person who typically raises his voice in public meetings.
杰夫不是那种通常在公开会议上提高声音的人。
In fact, before 2018, he'd never been to a city council meeting and didn't even know the mayor's name.
事实上，在2018年之前，他从未参加过市议会会议，甚至不知道市长的名字。
I wanted to talk to Jeff so I could better understand the concerns around managed retreat.
我想和杰夫谈谈，这样我就可以更好地理解有关管理撤退的担忧。
And he agreed, but admitted that he was a little wary.
他同意了，但承认他有点谨慎。
I have done several interviews in the last couple of years.
在过去的几年里，我进行了几次采访。
And every time that it's done, it was done with the sensational part of Pacifica cliffs falling into the ocean and such, and oh my gosh, isn't this terrible.
每次完成时，都会伴随着帕西菲卡悬崖落入大海等耸人听闻的部分，天哪，这不是太可怕了吗？
And I've been painted as a climate-change denier, which is completely not true.
我被描绘成气候变化否认者，这完全不是事实。
Jeff Guillet is not a climate denier.
杰夫·吉列并不是气候否认者。
He believes climate change is real.
他相信气候变化是真实存在的。
These days, Jeff is an IT professional who's solidly middle class.
如今，Jeff 是一名 IT 专业人士，完全是中产阶级。
But when he and his wife Amy set out to buy a home in Pacifica in 1993, they weren't exactly dripping in money.
但 1993 年，当他和妻子艾米着手在帕西菲卡买房时，他们并没有真正赚到钱。
Jeff was an office manager at a copy machine company and Amy worked a job in truck leasing.
杰夫是一家复印机公司的办公室经理，艾米则从事卡车租赁工作。
At the time, it was macaroni and cheese and Top Ramen.
当时，是通心粉、奶酪和顶级拉面。
And it was definitely a stretch.
这绝对是一个延伸。
But then they saw the ranch house on Seaside Drive, a compact, 1950s rectangle painted yellow.
但随后他们看到了海边大道上的牧场房屋，这是一座紧凑的 20 世纪 50 年代长方形房屋，漆成黄色。
And instantly, they could imagine raising a family there.
他们立刻就可以想象在那里建立一个家庭。
The floor plan was identical to the ranch where Jeff grew up.
平面图与杰夫长大的牧场相同。
Also, the house, though not on the ocean, was within walking distance of the water.
此外，这座房子虽然不在海边，但距离水域仅几步之遥。
So Jeff and Amy pulled money out of some retirement accounts, got a gift from an uncle, and made the $20,000 down payment.
于是，杰夫和艾米从一些退休账户中取出了钱，从叔叔那里得到了一份礼物，并支付了 20,000 美元的首付。
So when you first came, had you heard anything about the sea and houses, structures?
那么，当你第一次来的时候，你听说过有关大海、房屋、建筑的任何事情吗？
It was never something that was on the radar that it was ever going to be an issue.
从来没有人注意到它会成为一个问题。
Yeah.
是的。
We're a quarter of a mile from the beach, so sea level rise wasn't a thing.
我们距离海滩四分之一英里，所以海平面上升并不是什么问题。
I didn't think about flooding or anything like that, because we're just-- we're so far away from it, it didn't directly affect us.
我没有考虑洪水或类似的事情，因为我们离它太远了，它没有直接影响我们。
The first time Jeff heard the words "managed retreat" was in the summer of 2018 when he came home from work and found a yellow flyer stuffed through a gap in his gate.
杰夫第一次听到“管理撤退”这个词是在 2018 年夏天，当时他下班回家，发现大门的缝隙里塞满了一张黄色传单。
Show me the flyer?
给我看传单吗？
Jeff Guillet Yeah.
杰夫·吉列特 是的。
OK, so this is the homeowner alert, sea level rise, local coastal program, managed retreat.
好的，所以这是房主的警报，海平面上升，当地沿海计划，管理撤退。
The flyer, which had been printed by a local realtor association, explained the basics of managed retreat.
该传单由当地房地产经纪人协会印制，解释了管理撤退的基本知识。
And to Jeff, some of the information provided sounded pretty alarming.
对于杰夫来说，所提供的一些信息听起来相当令人震惊。
In light of projected sea level rise, the city of Pacifica will be considering a managed retreat, which could involve removing resources from the coast, including utilities and roads, removing seawalls, and requiring some owners to tear down their homes and clean their soil at their own expense.
鉴于预计海平面上升，帕西菲卡市将考虑进行有管理的撤退，这可能涉及从海岸移走资源，包括公用设施和道路，拆除海堤，并要求一些业主自费拆除房屋并清理土壤。
Now, the presentation of this information, as one government official wrote to me, is, quote, "inflammatory." Managed retreat does not mean that the city will come into an area and start pulling out roads and houses, as the flyer implies.
现在，正如一位政府官员写信给我的那样，这些信息的呈现是“煽动性的”。有管理的撤退并不意味着城市将进入一个地区并开始拆除道路和房屋，正如传单所暗示的那样。
It's a very slow-moving and voluntary process that unfolds over decades.
这是一个非常缓慢且自愿的过程，持续了数十年。
But Jeff didn't know that.
但杰夫不知道这一点。
And after reading the flyer, he felt uneasy.
看完传单后，他感到不安。
Still, it sounded so outlandish that he basically forgot about it until a couple of days later, when a local man came to clean their carpets.
尽管如此，这听起来还是很奇怪，以至于他基本上忘记了这件事，直到几天后，一个当地人来清理他们的地毯。
The carpet cleaner, when he came out, we told him, this is-- he said, these carpets are pretty old.
地毯清洁工，当他出来时，我们告诉他，这是——他说，这些地毯相当旧了。
And I said, yeah, we're going to replace them.
我说，是的，我们要更换它们。
We're going to put in new hardwood floors and such.
我们将铺设新的硬木地板等。
And he said, well, you better do that soon, because with managed retreat, you're not going to be able to make any improvements to your house.
他说，好吧，你最好尽快这样做，因为通过管理撤退，你将无法对你的房子进行任何改进。
And then it reminded me of this flyer.
然后它让我想起了这张传单。
And so I showed it to him, and he's like, oh, yeah, that's it.
所以我把它展示给他看，他说，哦，是的，就是这样。
You need to look into that.
你需要调查一下。
So Jeff did look into it, and what he found out distressed him.
所以杰夫确实调查了这件事，他的发现让他很苦恼。
The engineering consultants hired by the city had determined that Jeff's neighborhood could be considered for managed retreat.
市政府聘请的工程顾问已确定可以考虑对杰夫的社区进行管理撤退。
The consultants weren't saying that it had to be done tomorrow, or in 25 years or 50 years.
顾问们并没有说必须在明天、25 年或 50 年后完成。
They weren't even saying that it had to be done.
他们甚至没有说必须这样做。
They were saying that it was a decent option for the future and should be considered.
他们表示，这对于未来来说是一个不错的选择，应该予以考虑。
But to Jeff, having the label managed retreat anywhere near his neighborhood was a total catastrophe.
但对杰夫来说，让该品牌在他家附近的任何地方撤退都是一场彻底的灾难。
Managed retreat is basically the city giving up on this land.
有管理的撤退基本上就是城市放弃这片土地。
They've decided--
他们决定——
It could mean an increase in insurance rates, denied bank loans.
这可能意味着保险费率上涨，银行贷款被拒绝。
There could be limits on renovations, though it seems like redoing your floors would be totally fine.
装修可能会受到限制，尽管重做地板似乎完全没问题。
But without question, the biggest problem for Jeff was this-- publicly saying that a home like his was in a neighborhood where managed retreat was under consideration?
但毫无疑问，杰夫面临的最大问题是——公开表示像他这样的房子位于正在考虑管理撤退的社区？
That could have an impact on the value of his home.
这可能会影响他房屋的价值。
Because we would be required to disclose it to future buyers, and who's going to buy a house that's in a hazard zone, that you could potentially lose everything?
因为我们需要向未来的买家披露这一信息，以及谁将购买位于危险区域的房屋，您可能会失去一切？
Who's going to buy that house?
谁会买那个房子？
Right?
正确的？
So the concern was, if they even say that they are considering this, that, in itself, could be a problem for my housing values.
因此，令人担心的是，如果他们甚至说他们正在考虑这一点，那么这本身就可能对我的住房价值造成问题。
Right.
正确的。
Correct.
正确的。
Alix Spiegel We looked into it, and Jeff wouldn't actually have to disclose that his house was in a hazard zone.
阿利克斯·斯皮格尔：我们对此进行了调查，杰夫实际上不必透露他的房子位于危险区域。
But it's true that when you live on the edge of a creeping apocalypse, planning for the future can have some unwelcome financial consequences.
但确实，当你生活在一场逐渐蔓延的世界末日的边缘时，为未来做计划可能会带来一些不受欢迎的财务后果。
That's why Pacifica's homeowners were objecting.
这就是帕西菲卡的房主们反对的原因。
They argued that the future, how it would affect their specific home-- the pink one or the green one or the blue one or the yellow one that they lived in-- that was impossible to know.
他们认为，未来将如何影响他们特定的家——他们居住的粉色、绿色、蓝色或黄色——这是不可能知道的。
Perhaps some tech guru from north of the city would invent a great carbon-sucking machine so we could all go merrily along our way.
也许来自城市北部的一些科技大师会发明一种伟大的碳吸收机器，这样我们就可以愉快地前进。
Who knew?
谁知道？
You're going to make me pay now for something that you think might happen in 100 years.
你现在就要让我为你认为 100 年后可能发生的事情付出代价。
It's, you're delaying the inevitable.
是的，你正在推迟不可避免的事情。
We'll just do what's best.
我们只会做最好的事情。
It's going to happen anyway.
无论如何它都会发生。
Let's just do it now.
我们现在就做吧。
And that infuriates me.
这激怒了我。
Let me ask you this.
让我问你这个。
The sun is going to explode.
太阳快要爆炸了。
We don't know when.
我们不知道什么时候。
When do we leave the planet?
我们什么时候离开地球？
Should we be building rockets right now?
我们现在应该建造火箭吗？
Because it's going to happen.
因为这将会发生。
Just to say, while both the death of the sun and climate change are scientifically certain, one is happening in 5 billion years.
只是说，虽然太阳死亡和气候变化在科学上都是确定的，但 50 亿年后就会发生这样的事情。
The other, right this minute.
另一个，就在此时此刻。
But anyway, what Jeff knew was that he and his wife Amy had scrimped and saved, eaten their weight in Top Ramen, for this specific house.
但无论如何，杰夫知道的是，他和他的妻子艾米为了这座特定的房子而节衣缩食，吃了顶级拉面。
And obviously, they didn't want to lose that.
显然，他们不想失去这一点。
I was worried.
我很担心。
I got-- yeah.
我得到了——是的。
I couldn't sleep.
我无法入睡。
I'm like, did we make a big mistake?
我想，我们是不是犯了一个大错误？
We bought this house.
我们买了这栋房子。
We've invested in it.
我们已经投资了。
It's our legacy that we're going to give to our kids when we're gone.
当我们去世后，这是我们留给孩子们的遗产。
And are we at risk of losing everything?
我们是否面临失去一切的风险？
Night after night, Jeff lay in bed mentally circling the problem.
一夜又一夜，杰夫躺在床上，脑子里思考着这个问题。
Trying to formulate a plan-- what is it that we're going to do next?
尝试制定一个计划——接下来我们要做什么？
How are we going to raise awareness?
我们如何提高认识？
Is it too late?
是不是太晚了？
Alix Spiegel.
阿利克斯·斯皮格尔。
Coming up after the break, Jeff's plan and a showdown on managed retreat and on who will run Pacifica.
休息后，杰夫的计划和关于管理撤退以及谁将管理帕西菲卡的摊牌即将到来。
That's in a minute, from Chicago Public Radio, when our program continues.
稍后，芝加哥公共广播电台将继续我们的节目。
It's This American Life.
这就是美国生活。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Today's program, "Apocalypse Creep," stories of the world slowly changing, people deciding what they're going to do with that fact or whether they're going to face it at all.
今天的节目“天启蠕动”讲述了世界慢慢变化的故事，人们决定他们将如何对待这一事实，或者他们是否要面对它。
If you're just tuning in, we're in the middle of Alix Spiegel's story about Pacifica, California.
如果您刚刚收听，我们正在收听 Alix Spiegel 关于加利福尼亚州帕西菲卡的故事。
A local homeowner, Jeff Guillet, is trying to figure out how to stop all this talk about managed retreat.
当地房主杰夫·吉列特 (Jeff Guillet) 正在想办法阻止所有有关管理撤退的讨论。
Again, here's Alix.
再说一次，这是阿利克斯。
Jeff was desperate to defeat managed retreat, so he and a friend did what citizens do.
杰夫迫切希望击败有控制的撤退，因此他和一位朋友做了公民该做的事。
They started knocking on doors, trying to get the word out.
他们开始挨家挨户敲门，试图将消息传出去。
Have you heard of managed retreat?
你听说过管理撤退吗？
Have you heard what the city is planning, their plan for managed retreat for this area?
您听说过这座城市正在规划什么吗？他们对该地区的管理撤退计划是什么？
And invariably, everybody's like, no. What's managed retreat?
但每个人总是说，不。什么是管理撤退？
So you have to explain what managed retreat is.
所以你必须解释什么是有管理的撤退。
It took a huge amount of time.
这花费了大量的时间。
Jeff says he did 40 hours a week, in addition to his 40-hour-a-week job, for months.
杰夫说，几个月以来，除了每周 40 小时的工作之外，他每周还要工作 40 小时。
But he felt he had no choice.
但他觉得自己别无选择。
His financial security was at stake.
他的财务安全受到威胁。
All through the summer of 2018, Jeff worked phones and knocked doors, talking about managed retreat.
2018 年整个夏天，杰夫都在打电话、敲门，谈论有管理的撤退。
Fortunately, at least from Jeff's perspective, there was an opportunity for a public referendum on managed retreat coming up in the fall-- an election.
幸运的是，至少从杰夫的角度来看，秋季有机会就有管理的撤退进行全民公投——选举。
So as he went door to door, one of the things that he talked about was the mayor, John Keener, and how Keener was a supporter of managed retreat.
因此，当他挨家挨户拜访时，他谈论的事情之一就是市长约翰·基纳，以及基纳如何支持有管理的撤退。
But though Jeff didn't realize it at first, he wasn't the only party interested in raising the alarm about managed retreat and John Keener in Pacifica.
尽管杰夫一开始并没有意识到这一点，但他并不是唯一对帕西菲卡的有组织撤退和约翰·基纳发出警报感兴趣的人。
The issue had attracted attention from outside the city, as well.
这个问题也引起了城外的关注。
Real estate groups all up and down the coast of California were flooding Pacifica's elections with money, because like Jeff, they wanted to stop managed retreat in its tracks.
加州海岸上下的房地产集团都在向帕西菲卡的选举注入大量资金，因为像杰夫一样，他们希望阻止有管理的撤退。
My name is Judy Taylor.
我叫朱迪·泰勒。
I have been a realtor on the San Mateo County coast since 1977.
自 1977 年以来，我一直是圣马特奥县海岸的房地产经纪人。
Judy Taylor is a representative for the San Mateo Association of Realtors.
朱迪·泰勒是圣马特奥房地产经纪人协会的代表。
That's the group that created the yellow flyer Jeff found stuffed through a gap in his gate, the flyer that first alerted Jeff to the problem and set him on the road to hundreds of hours of activism.
正是这个组织制作了杰夫发现塞在大门缝隙中的黄色传单，这张传单首先提醒杰夫注意这个问题，并让他走上了数百小时的激进主义道路。
Like Jeff, Judy is not a climate denier.
和杰夫一样，朱迪并不是气候否认者。
She believes that sea level rise is real, and that inevitably, it will challenge the viability of a large portion of the homes that she and her colleagues now sell.
她相信海平面上升是真实存在的，并且不可避免地会挑战她和她的同事现在出售的大部分房屋的生存能力。
But the answer to this problem, at least from the perspective of a real estate agent like Judy, is not managed retreat, though she admits that some managed retreat will probably have to happen eventually.
但这个问题的答案，至少从像朱迪这样的房地产经纪人的角度来看，不是有管理的撤退，尽管她承认最终可能不得不发生一些有管理的撤退。
What real estate agents much prefer is stuff like seawalls.
房地产经纪人更喜欢的是海堤之类的东西。
You just have to armor the coastline.
你只需要保护海岸线。
Judy says she knows this will be expensive, but she doesn't buy that managed retreat would be cheaper.
朱迪说她知道这会很昂贵，但她并不认为管理撤退会更便宜。
And so, she says, her organization did whatever it could to convince Pacifica to stand against managed retreat.
因此，她说，她的组织尽一切努力说服帕西菲卡反对有控制的撤退。
We got people to city council meetings and we had people communicating with the Coastal Commission.
我们让人们参加市议会会议，并让人们与海岸委员会进行沟通。
And one of the ways that the realtors brought out residents like Jeff was by telling them that the state was going to take their homes and not give them any money.
房地产经纪人吸引像杰夫这样的居民的方法之一就是告诉他们，州政府将没收他们的房屋，并且不会给他们任何钱。
But when Jeff first brought this up during our interview, I was surprised, because I didn't think that the government could take a house without compensation.
但当杰夫在我们的采访中第一次提到这个问题时，我很惊讶，因为我不认为政府可以在没有补偿的情况下征用房子。
So after we talked, I tried to check out the claim.
因此，在我们交谈之后，我尝试核实这一说法。
He said, they're going to take my house and they're not going to give me any money.
他说，他们要拿走我的房子，而且不会给我任何钱。
And I put that in front of the person who used to be the executive director of the California Coastal Commission.
我把这个问题摆在了加州海岸委员会前任执行董事的面前。
And he said, that's against the law.
他说，这是违法的。
Like, nobody's talking about that.
就像，没有人谈论这个。
So it's not the case that they're not going to give you any money, right?
所以他们不会不给你钱，对吧？
Like, that's not their actual plan.
就像，这不是他们的实际计划。
It cannot be that they're just going to take the houses.
他们不可能只是要拿走房子。
It cannot be that they're just going to take the houses and not get--
他们不可能只是拿走房子而不得到——
Alix, it does sound preposterous.
阿利克斯，这听起来确实很荒谬。
But the thing is, they can't buy every vulnerable property.
但问题是，他们无法购买所有脆弱的财产。
In California, she points out, many of the homes that the government would need to buy are multimillion-dollar properties.
她指出，在加利福尼亚州，政府需要购买的许多房屋都是价值数百万美元的房产。
And Judy just doesn't believe that the government has that kind of cash, couldn't possibly buy out all of those homes and all the Pacifica homeowners and all the other homeowners in all the other places that are threatened.
朱迪只是不相信政府有那么多现金，不可能买下所有这些房屋、所有 Pacifica 房主以及所有其他受到威胁的地方的所有其他房主。
Ask them how they plan to do that at the same time Santa Cruz is having its problem, at the same time that Pebble Beach is having a similar problem, at the same time that Monterey is having a problem.
询问他们在圣克鲁斯遇到问题的同时，圆石滩遇到类似问题的同时，蒙特雷也遇到问题的时候，他们打算如何做到这一点。
This is a massive problem, and there is not enough government money to make all of these property owners whole.
这是一个大问题，而且政府没有足够的资金来让所有这些业主都安然无恙。
I mean, there simply isn't.
我的意思是，根本不存在。
Now, California is a big place with a lot of money.
现在，加州是一个大地方，有很多钱。
And if there were the political will, it could buy out the at-risk houses.
如果有政治意愿，它可以买断有风险的房屋。
In fact, the state legislature recently proposed a way of doing managed retreat that could save a lot of money-- buy the houses, then rent them back to the former residents until sea level rise makes them unusable.
事实上，州立法机构最近提出了一种可以节省大量资金的有管理的撤退方式——购买房屋，然后将它们租回给以前的居民，直到海平面上升使它们无法使用。
But Judy and other realtors are skeptical.
但朱迪和其他房地产经纪人对此表示怀疑。
And when the election came around in Pacifica, real estate associations from across the state threw a bunch of money at it.
当帕西菲卡选举临近时，全州房地产协会投入了大量资金。
According to a local resident named Carlos Davidson, who's tracked Pacifica's election spending, the money spent on Pacifica's 2018 local race was dominated by real estate interests.
据跟踪帕西菲卡选举支出的当地居民卡洛斯·戴维森 (Carlos Davidson) 称，帕西菲卡 2018 年当地竞选的花费主要来自房地产利益。
Carlos was one of dozens of residents I spoke to during my reporting in Pacifica.
卡洛斯是我在帕西菲卡报道期间采访的数十名居民之一。
In those conversations, many expressed shock and dismay at how the money that flooded Pacifica altered the tone in the city.
在这些谈话中，许多人对涌入帕西菲卡的资金改变了这座城市的基调表示震惊和沮丧。
That was pretty dark, to see that in our small town.
在我们的小镇上看到这样的景象真是太黑了。
For example, Carlos told me that since moving to Pacifica, he had never seen a negative campaign specifically targeting one member of the local government.
例如，卡洛斯告诉我，自从搬到帕西菲卡以来，他从未见过专门针对当地政府成员的负面运动。
But in 2018, that changed.
但到了 2018 年，情况发生了变化。
Carlos says it was like the realtors were trying to make an example of Mayor John Keener, punish him for saying that he was open to considering managed retreat, so that politicians all over the state would be hesitant to take that stance in the future.
卡洛斯说，这就像房地产经纪人试图以约翰·基纳市长为例，惩罚他说他愿意考虑有管理的撤退，这样全州的政客将来都会犹豫是否采取这种立场。
Now, there's a certain oddness to John becoming a target.
现在，约翰成为目标有一定的奇怪之处。
John isn't a firebrand for managed retreat.
约翰并不是一个热衷于有管理的撤退的煽动者。
He's not a firebrand for anything.
他不是任何事情的煽动者。
He's more of a steady grinder than anything else, famous for reading every word of the documents that come before the city council.
他比其他任何人都更像是一个稳定的研磨者，以阅读市议会收到的文件的每一个字而闻名。
Even his opponents, like Jeff, describe him as a kind old grandfather figure.
就连他的对手，比如杰夫，也将他描述为一位慈祥的老祖父形象。
But that's not how he was portrayed.
但人们对他的描绘却并非如此。
Here's Carlos's wife, Cynthia Kaufman.
这是卡洛斯的妻子辛西娅·考夫曼。
There was a really ugly smear campaign against him, and it was practically every week we got a new mailer that just lied about--
有一场针对他的非常丑陋的诽谤运动，几乎每周我们都会收到一封新的邮件，内容是撒谎——
Yeah.
是的。
So John Keener with his body-- photoshopped to somebody else's body barbecuing money.
所以约翰·基纳用他的身体——用Photoshop处理成别人的身体来烧烤钱。
It was a steady bombardment of messages.
这是持续不断的信息轰炸。
John Keener wants Pacifica to fall into the ocean.
约翰·基纳希望帕西菲卡掉入大海。
Why is Mayor Keener failing to protect Pacifica?
为什么基纳市长没能保护帕西菲卡？
And then there were the signs that flooded into town.
然后就有大量的标志涌入城镇。
Here's John Keener and his wife, Cathleen Josaitis.
这是约翰·基纳和他的妻子凯瑟琳·乔赛蒂斯。
Their symbol was a red circle with a slash through it, like a no parking sign, but said no Keener and his name on it.
他们的标志是一个带有斜线的红色圆圈，就像一个禁止停车的标志，但上面写着“没有基纳”和他的名字。
And they plastered those signs all over town, all over town.
他们把这些标牌贴满了整个城镇。
They had a sign on a van that they would move around.
他们在一辆货车上贴了一个标志，表明他们可以四处走动。
It just hurts in the chest to see your family name with a big slash and a circle through it multiple times a day, every day.
每天多次看到你的姓氏上有一个大斜线和一个圆圈，真是让你的胸口感到疼痛。
It was mortifying.
这真是令人羞愧。
Then came the newspaper coverage, a series of searing articles and editorials in The Pacifica Tribune.
随后报纸进行了报道，《太平洋论坛报》上发表了一系列激烈的文章和社论。
Public scorns mayor on managed retreat, gets yelled at in public meeting.
公众蔑视市长的管理撤退，并在公开会议上遭到呵斥。
They came out with pitchforks after John Keener.
他们在约翰·基纳之后用干草叉出来了。
Pacifica cannot afford managed retreat and Pacifica cannot afford John Keener.
帕西菲卡无力承担管理撤退的费用，帕西菲卡也无力承担约翰·基纳的费用。
Sorry.
对不起。
John Keener Yeah, I just don't like reading stuff that says John Keener's a schmuck.
约翰·基纳：是的，我只是不喜欢读那些说约翰·基纳是个笨蛋的东西。
John says that, despite all of this bad publicity, he felt bullish about keeping his position.
约翰说，尽管有这些负面宣传，他还是对保住自己的职位感到乐观。
He thought that the flyers were so over-the-top, they'd backfire.
他认为传单太过分了，会适得其反。
He told me another council member, someone on the opposite side, felt the same way.
他告诉我另一位理事会成员，对面的人，也有同样的感觉。
She was certain that the loud negative campaign would fail.
她确信大声的负面运动将会失败。
She was saying, you're totally going to get re-elected.
她说，你完全会再次当选。
Because Pacificans would see that and say, not in my community?
因为太平洋人会看到这一点并说，不是在我的社区吗？
I don't want that kind of-- I don't want that kind of vitriol in my community?
我不希望我的社区出现这种尖酸刻薄的行为？
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Alix Spiegel But once the numbers started filtering in--
阿利克斯·斯皮格尔 但是一旦数字开始渗透进来——
I was in fifth place.
我当时排在第五位。
Alix Spiegel Wow.
阿利克斯·斯皮格尔 哇。
Yeah.
是的。
And I wasn't that close to fourth place.
而且我距离第四名还差得很远。
It was a resounding defeat.
这是一场惨败。
John Keener I was shocked.
约翰·基纳 我很震惊。
I really thought that I would win.
我真的以为我会赢。
John was replaced by a candidate hostile to managed retreat.
约翰被一位对管理撤退持敌意的候选人取代。
And by the end of the year, the government finished the process of approving that plan that the California Coastal Commission had asked for.
到年底，政府完成了加州海岸委员会要求的该计划的批准程序。
It probably won't surprise you to hear that Jeff and the realtors got what they hoped for.
听到杰夫和房地产经纪人得到了他们所希望的东西，你可能不会感到惊讶。
I actually saw an early draft of what ultimately became that plan when I went to visit a longtime resident named Margaret Goodale.
当我去拜访一位名叫玛格丽特·古德尔（Margaret Goodale）的长期居民时，我实际上看到了最终成为该计划的早期草案。
When she pulled it up on her computer, you could see notes and suggestions in the margins, all the changes that were being proposed.
当她在电脑上打开它时，你可以在页边空白处看到注释和建议，以及所提出的所有更改。
--plan for it.
——为此做好计划。
Alix Spiegel So it says plan for 20 or 30 years, not 100.
Alix Spiegel 所以它说的是 20 或 30 年的计划，而不是 100 年。
And then where does it say-- ooh wow.
然后它在哪里说——哦哇。
So that's a lot of red lines.
所以有很多红线。
At a certain point as we scrolled down the draft, we encountered what looked like a field of red lines.
当我们向下滚动草稿时，在某个时刻，我们遇到了看起来像红线的区域。
Wherever there was a neighborhood that had been identified as a hazard area because of sea level rise, it was crossed out.
只要有一个街区因海平面上升而被确定为危险区域，就会被划掉。
And in the margins, there was a note.
在页边空白处，有一张纸条。
The term hazard has negative doom-and-gloom connotations and is not appropriate.
危险一词具有消极的厄运和悲观含义，是不恰当的。
Just because a property exists in the coastal zone does not mean it's in a hazard zone.
仅仅因为一处房产位于沿海地区并不意味着它位于危险区域。
And in the final draft, when it came to managed retreat, it was baldly rejected.
而在最终草案中，当涉及到管理撤退时，却被公然拒绝。
There was no place in the city of Pacifica for managed retreat, the document stated.
文件称，帕西菲卡市没有可供管理撤退的地方。
And the city didn't anticipate there'd be room for that approach at any point in the near future.
而且该市预计在不久的将来不会有采取这种方法的空间。
Now, some form of managed retreat has been implemented in a bunch of places in red states and blue, usually after a big disaster.
现在，红州和蓝州的许多地方已经实施了某种形式的有管理的撤退，通常是在一场大灾难之后。
But it's much harder when the problem is years in the future.
但当问题发生在未来几年时，事情就困难得多。
And in California, it's become a political hot potato.
在加利福尼亚州，它已成为政治上的烫手山芋。
Just this past October, Democratic governor Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill that his own legislature had passed, providing money for managed retreat buyouts.
就在去年十月，民主党州长加文·纽瑟姆否决了他自己的立法机构通过的一项法案，为有管理的撤退收购提供资金。
Many people speculate it's because the strategy is politically unpopular.
许多人猜测这是因为该策略在政治上不受欢迎。
It's often politically unpopular to pay now for something that will happen in the future.
现在为将来发生的事情付出代价在政治上往往不受欢迎。
Paying always hurts, and the benefit of putting it off is that the people in the future aren't around to object or vote.
支付总是有害的，推迟支付的好处是未来的人们不会反对或投票。
This, of course, is the challenge of climate change in general.
当然，这是气候变化的总体挑战。
The present owns our heart.
现在拥有我们的心。
The future, if it exists for us at all, lives only in our head.
未来，如果对我们来说真的存在的话，也只存在于我们的脑海中。
On my last day in Pacifica, I drove to the north part of town, near the street where Jane's house fell while she slept, to a home on a cliff by the sea.
在帕西菲卡的最后一天，我开车去了城镇北部，靠近简睡觉时房子倒塌的街道，来到海边悬崖上的一所房子。
Several years before, the back part of this house had disappeared into the ocean, just like Jane's did.
几年前，这座房子的后部已经消失在大海中，就像简的房子一样。
I'd seen a picture, a light blue structure sitting on a large concrete slab that juts awkwardly into thin air.
我看过一幅画，一座淡蓝色的建筑坐落在一块巨大的混凝土板上，笨拙地伸入稀薄的空气中。
I wanted to see the house because it had been put up for sale.
我想看看那所房子，因为它已经挂牌出售了。
The owners had cleaned up the property, tore off the parts that extended past the edge, and put it on the market for close to a million dollars.
业主们清理了这处房产，撕掉了超出边缘的部分，并将其以近百万美元的价格投放市场。
I was going to meet the realtor at an open house.
我本来打算在开放日会见房地产经纪人。
On the phone, she said she expected a big crowd.
她在电话中说，她预计会有一大群人。
And shortly before 1:00, she pulled up and slid aside the thick metal gate.
快到 1:00 时，她把车停了下来，滑到了厚重的金属门旁边。
Oh, look at that.
哦，看看那个。
As interested buyers started filtering in, the realtor seemed a little nervous about the unprotected cliff drop.
随着感兴趣的买家开始涌入，房地产经纪人似乎对不受保护的悬崖落差感到有点紧张。
She'd brought along a rope, which she spooled out about 3 feet away from the edge, and she kept warning people to take heed of it.
她带来了一根绳子，将其缠绕在距边缘约 3 英尺的地方，并不断警告人们要注意它。
She wanted people to interpret the line on the ground as an uncrossable boundary.
她希望人们将地面上的这条线解释为不可跨越的边界。
You want to see the cliff, you'll have to go down there.
想要看悬崖，就得下去。
Please don't--
请不要——
Yeah.
是的。
Please don't go too far.
请不要走得太远。
It just makes me nervous.
这让我很紧张。
I watched people milling until I saw a middle-aged man and his wife pacing out part of the home, trying to calculate how much ground was left between the ocean-facing garage wall and the drop.
我看着人们走来走去，直到我看到一个中年男人和他的妻子在房子的一部分里踱步，试图计算面向大海的车库墙和落差之间还剩下多少地面。
Oh, how close is the garage to the edge?
哦，车库离边缘有多近？
Yeah.
是的。
Alix Spiegel Are you a serious-- are you seriously considering it, or is it just kind of curiosity?
阿利克斯·斯皮格尔 (Alix Spiegel) 你是认真的——你认真地考虑过它，还是只是出于好奇？
No, we are seriously considering it-- I mean, $750,000 for oceanfront.
不，我们正在认真考虑——我的意思是，75 万美元用于海滨。
But you've got to consider that cost, too.
但你也必须考虑这个成本。
And what do you think about that?
你对此有何看法？
Does it make you nervous at all?
这会让你紧张吗？
Well, I think if you put enough and big enough boulders over the side, then it'll slow it down.
好吧，我认为如果你在侧面放足够大的巨石，那么它就会减慢速度。
Yeah.
是的。
Potential Buyer It's inevitable someday that this is going to be in the ocean.
潜在买家 有一天，这是不可避免的，这将是在海洋中。
[LAUGHS]
[笑]
And so why would you buy a house which you think inevitably will end up in the ocean?
那么，你为什么要买一栋你认为最终不可避免地会沉入大海的房子呢？
Well, for short term, it's for enjoyment, I guess.
嗯，从短期来看，我想这是为了享受。
For the next two hours, people filtered in and out, oohing and aahing over both the beauty of the structure and the wonder of the sea crashing below on the sand, that thin strip of ground where the present and the future slowly meet.
在接下来的两个小时里，人们进进出出，惊叹于这座建筑的美丽，以及大海拍打沙滩的奇观，那片狭长的土地是现在和未来慢慢交汇的地方。
Be careful out there, OK?
出去小心点，好吗？
Ira Glass Alix Spiegel is one of the producers of our show.
艾拉·格拉斯 (Ira Glass) 阿利克斯·斯皮格尔 (Alix Spiegel) 是我们节目的制片人之一。
Act Two, resilience is futile.
第二幕，韧性是徒劳的。
So with the steady drumbeat in our lives of wildfires and floods and storms that are more frequent and more severe, permafrost and glaciers going, what do you do with that?
因此，随着我们生活中不断出现的野火、洪水和风暴越来越频繁、越来越严重，永久冻土和冰川不断消失，你该怎么办？
Well, Mario Alejandro Ariza thinks about this stuff all the time because he's a climate reporter for a climate news outlet called Floodlight, and because he lives in Miami, a place where they're already seeing the effects of climate change in very visible, undeniable ways.
马里奥·亚历杭德罗·阿里扎（Mario Alejandro Ariza）一直在思考这些问题，因为他是气候新闻媒体 Floodlight 的气候记者，而且因为他住在迈阿密，在那里他们已经以非常明显、不可否认的方式看到了气候变化的影响。
In fact, he wrote a book about Miami's doomsday future called Disposable City.
事实上，他写了一本关于迈阿密末日未来的书，名为《一次性城市》。
But facing all that head on, even he finds that it's hard to know what to think a lot of the time.
但面对这一切，即使是他也发现很多时候很难知道该想什么。
There's a scar on my knuckle in the shape of a star.
我的指关节上有一道星形的伤疤。
I got it from punching Alex Rodriguez in the teeth one afternoon in sixth grade.
六年级的一天下午，我用拳头打了亚历克斯·罗德里格斯的牙齿，从而得到了它。
He and 11 other kids had cornered me by the chain-link fence at the end of an empty soccer field.
他和另外 11 个孩子把我逼到空荡荡的足球场尽头的铁丝网围栏边。
Alex had metal braces that cut my skin open when I swung at him.
亚历克斯戴着金属支架，当我向他挥拳时，金属支架割破了我的皮肤。
Then he and all the other kids went at me like a pack of feral dogs.
然后他和其他孩子就像一群野狗一样向我扑来。
When I came home badged with bruises, all I offered my parents by way of explanation was that I'd fallen.
当我带着瘀伤回到家时，我向父母提供的唯一解释就是我摔倒了。
My silence made sense at the time.
我当时的沉默是有道理的。
I went to an all-boys Catholic school whose official motto was "Men for others," whose unofficial religion was Latin machismo and whose unspoken mantra was [SPANISH]-- don't be a snitch.
我就读于一所天主教男校，学校的官方座右铭是“为他人服务”，其非官方宗教是拉丁大男子主义，其不言而喻的口头禅是[西班牙语]——别做告密者。
My peers and elders told me this cruelty was supposed to make me tough, manly.
我的同龄人和长辈告诉我，这种残酷行为应该让我变得坚强、有男子气概。
It was supposed to make me resilient.
它应该让我有弹性。
Alex is an actor now living in Miami and he's also my friend.
亚历克斯是一名演员，现在住在迈阿密，他也是我的朋友。
He's grown into a kind and gentle adult.
他已经成长为一个善良、温柔的成年人。
We grab drinks often.
我们经常喝酒。
And the older boy who whipped me with a belt that one woeful time now lives in Brooklyn and has founded a tech company.
还有那个用皮带抽打我的大男孩，那段悲惨的时光现在住在布鲁克林，并创立了一家科技公司。
That sadistic motherfucker can burn in hell.
那个虐待狂混蛋可以在地狱里被烧死。
But this isn't about settling accounts.
但这并不是为了算账。
Rather, this is about the sun-scorched Miami fields in which I was beaten and their natural tendency to flood.
相反，这是关于我被殴打的迈阿密阳光炙烤的田野以及它们自然容易发生洪水的情况。
You might not think at first that my constantly getting the crap kicked out of me has anything to do with climate change or sea level rise or the death of my city at the hands of an angry, swollen ocean.
一开始你可能不会想到，我不断被踢出的垃圾与气候变化、海平面上升或我的城市死于愤怒、肿胀的海洋之手有什么关系。
But that word, resilience-- it's becoming increasingly popular when people talk about climate change in Miami.
但当人们在迈阿密谈论气候变化时，“韧性”这个词变得越来越流行。
It means the ability to bounce back quickly, as in what they prescribed to me while I was being hazed and bullied and beaten.
这意味着快速恢复的能力，就像当我被欺负、欺负和殴打时他们给我开的处方一样。
Now we're being told we have to learn to recover quickly from heat waves, storms, and floods.
现在我们被告知必须学会从热浪、风暴和洪水中快速恢复。
And we have to do all that, even though we're not sure Miami has another 70 years left in it.
我们必须做这一切，尽管我们不确定迈阿密还能再活 70 年。
By the end of the century, we could witness six feet of sea level rise.
到本世纪末，我们可以目睹海平面上升六英尺。
The average elevation here is about six feet above sea level.
这里的平均海拔约为海平面六英尺。
You do the math.
你算一下。
In Miami-Dade County, you can already see this happening.
在迈阿密戴德县，您已经可以看到这种情况的发生。
These pulses of water show up.
这些水脉冲出现了。
We call them sunny day floods.
我们称其为晴天洪水。
Didn't have them when I was a kid, and they suck.
我小时候没有，而且很糟糕。
Under a clear sky, ocean water creeps up from drains like a thief.
晴朗的天空下，海水像小偷一样从排水沟里爬上来。
The bay and the canals that feed into it swell and burst their banks.
海湾和注入海湾的运河膨胀并决堤。
In the low-lying places-- and they are legion in this town-- knee-deep water appears.
在低洼的地方——这个镇上有很多这样的人——出现了齐膝深的水。
Whole intersections flood and people plow their cars into them.
整个十字路口都被洪水淹没，人们将汽车冲向其中。
Traffic snarls.
交通拥堵。
Residents are warned not to wade through their streets if they have any open wounds.
居民被警告，如果有任何开放性伤口，不要涉水穿过街道。
God forbid it rains.
上帝保佑不要下雨。
Not long ago, I stepped outside of my vet's office with an umbrella in one hand and my kitten in a cat carrier held in the other.
不久前，我走出兽医办公室，一手撑着雨伞，另一只手拿着猫笼里的小猫。
It was pouring.
倾盆大雨。
And the manhole cover on the sidewalk next to me was doing something weird.
我旁边人行道上的井盖正在做一些奇怪的事情。
It's rattling and moaning.
它发出嘎嘎声和呻吟声。
Water was shooting up around it, lifting it up inches into the air, bringing it clanging back down, ringing like the bell of a Gothic cathedral.
水在它周围喷涌而出，将它升到空中几英寸，然后又叮当作响地落下来，像哥特式大教堂的钟声一样响起。
It was late summer, and the tide was so high and there's so much pressure in the stormwater system that the manhole covers up and down the street were coming alive, jumping up out of the sidewalk.
当时正值夏末，潮水如此之高，雨水系统的压力如此之大，以至于街道上上下下的沙井都活了起来，从人行道上跳了起来。
Is it safe?
安全吗？
Should I run?
我应该跑吗？
Some scientists predict that in just over 20 years from now, we could have hundreds of these floods a year.
一些科学家预测，从现在起的短短 20 年内，我们每年可能会发生数百次此类洪水。
There is great romance in loving something doomed.
热爱注定要失败的事物是一种伟大的浪漫。
Surrender-- [SPANISH] in Spanish-- comes easier when the heartbreak is unavoidable.
当心碎不可避免时，投降——西班牙语中的“西班牙语”——会变得更容易。
But my experience with doomed love has taught me that most of the time, it just means a lot of anxiety.
但我对注定爱情的经历告诉我，大多数时候，这只是意味着很多焦虑。
It lives in my body like a copper wire wrapped around my shoulder blades.
它住在我的身体里，就像一根铜线缠绕在我的肩胛骨上。
On days when tides are high and the rain is hard, the wire constricts my chest, makes it hard to breathe.
在涨潮、下大雨的日子里，铁丝压迫着我的胸部，让我呼吸困难。
It tenses and coils.
它绷紧并盘旋。
I can be sitting on the toilet scrolling through Instagram when anxiety strikes with a headline announcing that in Europe, regulators will start requiring homes at risk of flooding to disclose their true risk at sale.
当我坐在马桶上刷 Instagram 时，焦虑感袭来，标题宣布在欧洲，监管机构将开始要求面临洪水风险的房屋披露其出售时的真实风险。
That doesn't happen here.
这里不会发生这种情况。
What if it happened here?
如果事情发生在这里怎么办？
Oh my god.
我的天啊。
Should I sell my house?
我应该卖掉我的房子吗？
I have a moment like this, on average, once a day.
我平均每天都会有一次这样的时刻。
The friends I text or call about it are tired of hearing me kvetch.
我发短信或打电话谈论这件事的朋友已经厌倦了听到我的抱怨。
Where would you go if you sold, Mario?
马里奥，如果你卖了你会去哪里？
Orlando?
奥兰多？
You hate Orlando.
你讨厌奥兰多。
And there are people I'm willing to stay and suffer for.
有些人我愿意留下来并为他们受苦。
My mother lives down the street.
我妈妈住在街上。
My grandmother is a few train stops away.
我的祖母就在几站火车之外。
I've got a whole oddball clan of Dominican immigrant [SPANISH] and [SPANISH] and cousins scattered across the suburbs.
我有一个由多米尼加移民[西班牙人]和[西班牙人]组成的奇怪家族，还有分散在郊区的堂兄弟姐妹。
Take my uncle, a lung doctor, for instance.
以我的叔叔为例，他是一位肺科医生。
When I had a persistent cough last November and found myself without health insurance, he took free x-rays of my chest and handed me an inhaler.
去年 11 月，当我持续咳嗽并发现自己没有健康保险时，他免费为我做了胸部 X 光检查，并递给我一个吸入器。
How could I abandon a city full of relatives willing to give such kindness?
我怎么能放弃一个充满了愿意给予这种善意的亲戚的城市呢？
And so I stay here.
所以我留在这里。
I live here.
我住在这里。
I'm resilient.
我很有弹性。
My family-- they're super resilient.
我的家人——他们的适应能力非常强。
But here's how I really feel about resilience.
但这是我对韧性的真实感受。
I loathe it, because resilience, when it comes to climate change in Florida, basically translates into construction-- raising roads, installing pumps, hardening power lines.
我讨厌它，因为佛罗里达州应对气候变化的韧性基本上转化为建设——抬高道路、安装水泵、加固电线。
In just the last few months, Ron DeSantis, Florida's governor, announced more than half a billion dollars in statewide resilience spending to help cities adapt infrastructure.
就在过去几个月，佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯 (Ron DeSantis) 宣布在全州范围内投入超过 5 亿美元的复原力支出，以帮助城市适应基础设施。
I wish that was reassuring.
我希望这能让人放心。
But it's not even close to enough money to address the problem.
但它还远远没有足够的资金来解决这个问题。
And it leaves lots of people behind, especially poor people.
它让很多人落后，尤其是穷人。
They're the ones least likely to be able to afford AC during the coming heat waves.
在即将到来的热浪期间，他们是最不可能买得起空调的人。
They're the ones that go hungry after a big storm.
他们是在一场大风暴之后挨饿的人。
They're already being kicked off the high ground.
他们已经被踢下了高地。
If this is resilience, let's not be resilient.
如果这就是韧性，那我们就不要韧性了。
Instead, let's acknowledge reality.
相反，让我们承认现实。
In 25 years, some neighborhoods could be permanently flooded, and in 40 years, almost 90,000 people could have to move.
25 年内，一些社区可能会被永久淹没，40 年内，近 90,000 人可能不得不搬家。
And then there's the big one, the hurricane that is going to rip the heart out of this town.
然后还有一场大飓风，它将把这座小镇的心脏撕裂。
The US Army Corps of Engineers fears it could displace up to a million people if it hits during a high tide.
美国陆军工程兵团担心，如果在涨潮期间发生，可能导致多达一百万人流离失所。
And the big one isn't a matter of if, but when.
最重要的不是是否发生的问题，而是何时发生的问题。
We're overdue for a direct hit.
我们早该发动直接打击了。
I don't think anyone here understands how to be resilient enough for that.
我认为这里没有人明白如何保持足够的弹性来应对这一点。
When I was a kid, I was told that resilience basically meant pretending that, despite the hazing and the bullying, I was fine.
当我还是个孩子的时候，有人告诉我，坚韧基本上意味着假装尽管受到欺辱和欺凌，但我很好。
I wasn't.
我不是。
As an adult, I'm being told that resilience means pretending that if we raise the roads and fix the drains, we'll be fine.
作为一个成年人，有人告诉我，韧性意味着假装如果我们加高道路并修好排水沟，我们就会没事。
We won't.
我们不会。
The water is going to keep on rising, no matter how resilient we are.
无论我们的恢复能力如何，水位都会继续上涨。
Mario Alejandro Ariza.
马里奥·亚历杭德罗·阿里萨。
You can read his climate reporting at floodlightnews.org.
您可以在 Floodlightnews.org 上阅读他的气候报告。
Well, our program was produced today by Alix Spiegel and Sean Cole.
嗯，我们今天的节目是由阿利克斯·斯皮格尔和肖恩·科尔制作的。
The people who put together today's program include Bim Adewunmi, Susan Burton, Zoe Chace, Dana Chivvis, Michael Comite, Aviva DeKornfeld, Rudy Lee, Stowe Nelson, Katherine Rae Mondo, Michelle Navarro, Alissa Shipp, Laura Starecheski, Lilly Sullivan, Christopher Swetala, Matt Tierney, and Diane Wu.
今天节目的制作人包括 Bim Adewunmi、Susan Burton、Zoe Chace、Dana Chivvis、Michael Comite、Aviva DeKornfeld、Rudy Lee、Stowe Nelson、Katherine Rae Mondo、Michelle Navarro、Alissa Shipp、Laura Starecheski、Lilly Sullivan、Christopher Swetala、Matt Tierney 和 Diane Wu。
Our managing editor's Sarah Abdurrahman.
我们的总编辑莎拉·阿卜杜拉赫曼 (Sarah Abdurrahman)。
Senior editor is David Kestenbaum.
高级编辑是 David Kestenbaum。
Our executive editor is Emanuele Berry.
我们的执行编辑是 Emanuele Berry。
Emily McAllister, who alerted us to that fishing report on 101.5 FM in Truckee, also produced that story with us.
艾米丽·麦卡利斯特 (Emily McAllister) 提醒我们注意特拉基 101.5 FM 的钓鱼报道，她也与我们一起制作了这个故事。
Special thanks today to Justin Briggs, Andrew Ponec, Elana Story, Charles Lester, Phil King, Kevin Woodhouse, Mike O'Neill, Miranda Green, Alex Harris, Emily Holden, Sabrina Imbler, John Morales, and Truckee Tahoe Radio for those Fishing Reports produced by Dondo.
今天特别感谢 Justin Briggs、Andrew Ponec、Elana Story、Charles Lester、Phil King、Kevin Woodhouse、Mike O'Neill、Miranda Green、Alex Harris、Emily Holden、Sabrina Imbler、John Morales 和 Truckee Tahoe Radio 制作 Dondo 制作的钓鱼报告。
Our website, thisamericanlife.org, where you can stream our archive of over 750 episodes for absolutely free.
我们的网站 thisamericanlife.org，您可以在其中完全免费地观看我们的 750 多集档案。
Also, there's videos.
另外，还有视频。
There's lists of favorite shows.
有最喜欢的节目列表。
There's tons of other stuff there, too.
那里还有很多其他东西。
Again, thisamericanlife.org.
再说一次，thisamericanlife.org。
This American Life is delivered to public radio stations by PRX, the Public Radio Exchange.
《美国生活》由公共广播电台 PRX 向公共广播电台播出。
Thanks as always to our program's cofounder, Mr. Torey Malatia.
一如既往地感谢我们项目的联合创始人 Torey Malatia 先生。
You know, recently he went on a big health kick, dropped a few pounds, and was very dismayed at how, I don't know, baggy the seat of his pants were.
你知道，最近他对健康进行了一次大的锻炼，体重减轻了几磅，并且对我不知道的裤子屁股感到非常沮丧。
My backyard was gone.
我的后院不见了。
Ira Glass I'm Ira Glass.
艾拉·格拉斯 我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Back next week with more stories of This American Life.
下周我们将带来更多《美国生活》的故事。
[MUSIC PLAYING] This American Life This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.
[音乐播放] This American Life This American Life 与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。