590: Choosing Wrong - This American Life
You are using an outdated browser.
您正在使用过时的浏览器。
Please upgrade your browser or activate Google Chrome Frame to improve your experience.
请升级您的浏览器或激活 Google Chrome 浏览器内嵌框架以改善您的体验。
Sign up for a free Life Partners trial, and you can watch the video “A Night of Stories and Improv.”
注册免费试用《Life Partners》，您可以观看视频“故事与即兴表演之夜”。
00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #590 | June 24, 2016 590: Choosing Wrong Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.
00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 590 集 | 2016 年 6 月 24 日 590：选择错误 注意：《美国生活》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。
If you are able, we strongly encourage you to listen to the audio, which includes emotion and emphasis that's not on the page.
如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。
Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.
文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。
Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.
请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。
Prologue Ira Glass Well, it's June.
序言 艾拉·格拉斯 嗯，现在是六月。
Weddings everywhere, brides in white, little three-year-old nieces sent waddling down aisles throwing rose petals, vows that go on, perhaps a bit too long.
到处都是婚礼，穿着白衣的新娘，三岁的小侄女摇摇晃晃地走在过道上，撒着玫瑰花瓣，誓言继续下去，也许有点太长了。
And how many of these happy couples are actually, underneath all of it, mismatched?
在这些幸福的夫妻中，有多少实际上是不般配的呢？
A huge number.
数量巨大。
It's frightening going to weddings.
去参加婚礼真是太可怕了。
Meet Alain de Botton, author of articles with titles like "Why You Will Marry the Wrong Person", and "How We End Up Marrying the Wrong Person", and two books about love.
来认识一下阿兰·德波顿 (Alain de Botton)，他是《为什么你会嫁给错误的人》和《我们如何最终嫁给错误的人》等文章的作者，以及两本关于爱情的书。
I was interested in talking to him because our radio show today is about making wrong choices.
我有兴趣与他交谈，因为我们今天的广播节目是关于做出错误选择的。
And he believes that when it comes to making the single most important decision many of us ever make in our lives, it is incredibly easy to screw it up-- much easier than we generally acknowledge.
他认为，当我们许多人在生活中做出最重要的决定时，很容易搞砸——比我们通常认为的要容易得多。
You know, some of the reason why we marry the wrong people is that we don't really understand ourselves.
你知道，我们嫁给错误的人的部分原因是我们并不真正了解自己。
I mean, sometimes I say to people, do you think you're easy to live with?
我的意思是，有时我会对人们说，你认为你容易相处吗？
People who are single.
单身人士。
And the ones who say, yeah, yeah, I'm pretty easy to live with, it's just a question of finding the right person, massive alarm bell rings in my mind.
那些说，是的，是的，我很容易相处，这只是找到合适的人的问题，巨大的警钟在我脑海中响起。
He says the problem is that it is not until we are actually married that we're in a situation where all the ways that we are hard to live with are truly revealed.
他说，问题在于，直到我们真正结婚之后，我们的所有难以忍受的生活方式才真正暴露出来。
All of our neuroses and flaws, all the tiny little things that vaguely remind us of our childhoods, and thus trigger peculiar and inappropriate behavior towards those we live with, that's what gets revealed by the marriage itself.
我们所有的神经质和缺陷，所有隐约让我们想起童年的小事，从而引发对我们同住的人的特殊和不恰当的行为，这就是婚姻本身所揭示的。
Even if you lived together before marriage, he says, it's not the same.
他说，即使你们婚前住在一起，情况也不一样。
It doesn't give you that self-knowledge.
它不会给你那种自我认识。
And so we go into marriage unable to convey that knowledge to a partner.
因此，我们进入婚姻时无法将这些知识传达给伴侣。
We don't understand them.
我们不理解他们。
They don't understand us.
他们不理解我们。
We don't understand what marriage is.
我们不明白婚姻是什么。
Let's stress that.
让我们强调一下。
So what would you say to all the people getting married this month?
那么你想对本月结婚的所有人说些什么呢？
What would you tell them?
你会告诉他们什么？
Be incredibly forgiving for the weird behavior that's going to start coming out.
对即将出现的奇怪行为要极其宽容。
You will be very unhappy in lots of ways.
你会在很多方面感到非常不快乐。
Your partner will fail to understand you.
你的伴侣将无法理解你。
If you're understood in maybe, I don't know, 60% of your soul by your partner, that's fantastic.
如果你的伴侣能够理解你灵魂的 60%，我不知道，那就太棒了。
Don't expect that it's going to be 100%.
不要指望它会是 100%。
Of course you will be lonely.
当然你会感到孤独。
You will often be in despair.
你常常会陷入绝望。
You will sometimes think it's the worst decision in your life.
有时你会认为这是你一生中最糟糕的决定。
That's fine.
没关系。
That's not a sign your marriage has gone wrong.
这并不表明你的婚姻出了问题。
It's a sign that it's normal, it's on track.
这是正常的迹象，一切都步入正轨。
And many of the hopes that took you into the marriage will have to die in order for the marriage to continue.
为了让婚姻继续下去，许多让你进入婚姻的希望必须破灭。
That some of the headiness and expectations will have to die.
一些令人头晕的情绪和期望将不得不消失。
It's very dark.
天很黑。
But in love, darkness is a real friend of relationships.
但在爱情中，黑暗才是人际关系的真正朋友。
Because so many of the problems of love come from unwarranted optimism.
因为爱情中的许多问题都源于无根据的乐观。
And so we need to be dark about so many things.
所以我们需要对很多事情保持黑暗。
OK, I'm going to stop the tape right there and come in to say, I know he's going on a little bit here.
好的，我要把录像带停在那里然后进来说，我知道他会在这里继续说下去。
And by the way, mazel tov to everybody getting married this month.
顺便说一句，马泽尔向本月结婚的每个人致意。
But I'm a married person.
但我是一个已婚人士。
And OK, just speaking for myself, I find this tear that he's on to be one of the most accurate descriptions of marriage I've ever heard-- no judging please-- and also, in its own way, kind of hopeful.
好吧，就我自己而言，我发现他的这滴眼泪是我听过的对婚姻最准确的描述之一——请不要评判——而且，以它自己的方式，有点充满希望。
But we'll get to that.
但我们会做到这一点。
Anyway, back to the tape.
无论如何，回到磁带。
Let me say, you'll have noticed that I've got a British accent.
让我说，你会注意到我有英国口音。
Now, Britain doesn't do many things well.
现在，英国很多事情都做得不好。
We fail at a lot of things.
我们在很多事情上都失败了。
But one of the things we excel at-- perhaps almost on an international scale-- is melancholy.
但我们擅长的事情之一——也许几乎在国际范围内——就是忧郁。
We do melancholy really well.
我们把忧郁做得很好。
The weather helps.
天气有帮助。
And I think that there are aspects of a good marriage that should encompass a kind of melancholy, as we realize that we're trying to do such a complex thing with someone.
我认为美好婚姻的某些方面应该包含一种忧郁，因为我们意识到我们正试图与某人做如此复杂的事情。
We are trying to find our best friend, our ideal sexual partner, our co-household manager, perhaps our co-parent.
我们正在努力寻找我们最好的朋友，我们理想的性伴侣，我们的共同家庭经理，也许是我们的共同父母。
And we're expecting that all this will miraculously go well together.
我们期待所有这一切都会奇迹般地顺利进行。
Of course it can.
当然可以。
We're not going to be able to get it all right.
我们不可能把事情全部解决。
There will be many areas of misunderstanding and failure.
会有很多误解和失败的地方。
And a certain amount of sober melancholy is a real asset when heading forth into the land of love.
当踏上爱情的土地时，一定程度的清醒忧郁是一笔真正的财富。
Ira Glass And so to sum up, he says we choose the wrong spouse because we don't actually understand what marriage is really going to be like.
艾拉·格拉斯（Ira Glass） 总而言之，他说我们选择了错误的配偶，因为我们实际上并不了解婚姻到底是什么样子。
Because we do not know ourselves.
因为我们不了解自己。
And in addition, we idealize our spouse.
此外，我们还理想化我们的配偶。
We make hasty choices about who we'll marry because being single can be so unpleasant.
我们仓促地决定要嫁给谁，因为单身可能会很不愉快。
And because, rather than analyzing and thinking all those things through, instead we just follow our feelings.
因为我们没有分析和思考所有这些事情，而是跟随我们的感觉。
We go on gut.
我们凭直觉行事。
We go on instinct.
我们凭本能行事。
Which, to Alain's way of thinking, is obviously inadequate to the task at hand.
在阿兰看来，这显然不足以完成手头的任务。
I mean, imagine if I said I'm going to try to land a 777 tomorrow, I'm going to touch down at San Francisco airpot by intuition.
我的意思是，想象一下，如果我说我明天要尝试降落一架 777，我会凭直觉在旧金山机场降落。
Or if I said I'm going to perform quite a complicated surgical procedure this afternoon by intuition, sounds mad.
或者，如果我说我今天下午将凭直觉进行相当复杂的外科手术，听起来很疯狂。
Nevertheless, we accept that people are going to say, I'm going to run this major part of my life called my love life by intuition.
尽管如此，我们承认人们会说，我将通过直觉来管理我生命中被称为爱情生活的主要部分。
Now, I know that we've all heard some of these things, OK?
现在，我知道我们都听说过其中一些事情，好吗？
I think every couple now knows that it's not going be great all the time.
我想现在每对夫妇都知道，事情不会一直都很好。
Every couple is told it's going to be hard.
每对夫妇都被告知这会很困难。
You're going to have to work at it.
你必须努力去做。
But the radical message that Alain de Botton brings is even if you work at it, you're not going to be that successful.
但阿兰·德波顿带来的激进信息是，即使你努力，你也不会那么成功。
It's going to be a mix of unhappiness and happiness with way more unhappiness than you think before you get married.
这将是不幸和幸福的混合体，而且不幸福的程度比你结婚前想象的还要多。
And a good partnership is one where both people have realistic expectations about all that.
良好的合作关系是双方都对这一切抱有现实的期望。
A good partnership he writes, "Is not so much between two healthy people.
他写道，良好的伙伴关系并不在于两个健康的人之间。
There aren't many of those on the planet.
这个星球上这样的人并不多。
It's one between two demented people who have had the skill or luck to find a non-threatening conscious accommodation between their relative insanities." The standard question on an early dinner date he says should be simply, "And how are you crazy?"
这是两个精神错乱的人之间的故事，他们有能力或幸运地在他们相对的疯狂之间找到了一种无威胁的有意识的和解。”他说，提早晚餐约会时的标准问题应该很简单：“你怎么疯了？”
I mean, relationships markedly improve when two people can make almost a blanket avowal-- we're both kind of crazy.
我的意思是，当两个人可以几乎全盘承认时，关系就会显着改善——我们都有点疯狂。
You're married, right?
你结婚了，对吧？
Alain De Botton I'm married.
阿兰·德波顿 我结婚了。
Look, she's very funny.
你看，她很有趣。
She's a pessimistic realist.
她是一个悲观的现实主义者。
On our 10th wedding anniversary, she dressed in black.
在我们结婚十周年纪念日那天，她穿了一身黑衣服。
And she said, it was a funeral for many of her hopes.
她说，这是她许多希望的葬礼。
So she's quite dark too.
所以她也很黑。
But we're actually very hopeful about the course of love.
但我们实际上对爱情的进程充满希望。
And in your marriage, did you both go through a process of entering the marriage with one idea, a very idealized idea, of what marriage would be, and then you came to this other idea?
在你们的婚姻中，你们是否都经历了这样一个过程：带着一个想法进入婚姻，一个非常理想化的想法，关于婚姻会是什么样子，然后你们又想到了另一个想法？
Yes.
是的。
I had absolutely no idea about how to love.
我完全不知道如何去爱。
I hadn't had many relationships.
我没有建立过很多人际关系。
And I literally used to think that the only problem, the only difficulty of love was finding this person called the right person.
我确实曾经认为，爱情中唯一的问题、唯一的困难就是找到这个被称为对的人。
And they'd come into my life, and then we'd just understand one another totally.
他们进入了我的生活，然后我们就完全理解了彼此。
We would understand each other without needing to speak.
我们不需要说话就能互相理解。
We wouldn't have any arguments.
我们不会有任何争论。
We wouldn't have any arguments over money or practicalities.
我们不会因为金钱或实用性而发生任何争论。
And I think we had a succession of crises and moments of fear, where we really thought we had married the wrong person.
我认为我们经历了一系列的危机和恐惧时刻，我们真的认为我们嫁给了错误的人。
Is there a more general rule here?
这里有更普遍的规则吗？
Do most of us make mistakes in other huge decisions in our lives because we don't know ourselves?
我们大多数人是否因为不了解自己而在生活中的其他重大决定中犯了错误？
The other area where we make major bad decisions based on a lack of self knowledge-- and it's exactly the same principle-- is work.
我们因缺乏自我认识而做出重大错误决定的另一个领域（原理完全相同）是工作。
Work and love, and the two very similar.
工作和爱情，两者非常相似。
Because in both areas, we abandon the field totally to intuition.
因为在这两个领域，我们完全放弃了直觉。
You're supposed to find your work by a kind of special calling, by a special pull.
你应该通过一种特殊的召唤、一种特殊的吸引力来找到你的工作。
And in fact, in order to find a job that you can love, you have to understand so much about yourself, your own character, your own nature, let alone the world of work itself.
事实上，为了找到一份你喜欢的工作，你必须非常了解你自己、你自己的性格、你自己的本性，更不用说工作世界本身了。
And so he says, we choose wrong in not one, but two of the biggest things we ever decide in our lives.
所以他说，我们在一生中做过的最重要的决定中，不是一件而是两件做出了错误的选择。
And then we muddle our way through.
然后我们就蒙混过去了。
Today on our show, as some of Alain's countrymen who voted for the Brexit are telling reporters they regret their votes now that they see the reality of what it is, we have stories of people making the wrong choices.
今天在我们的节目中，阿兰的一些投票支持英国脱欧的同胞告诉记者，他们对自己的投票感到后悔，因为他们看到了现实，我们有人们做出错误选择的故事。
And in the stories we have today, the stakes are high-- like, for instance, the career of one of the greatest basketball players who ever lived, like the outcome of the presidential election.
在我们今天的故事中，赌注很高——例如，有史以来最伟大的篮球运动员之一的职业生涯，就像总统选举的结果。
And in every story, it could have gone differently.
每个故事的发展都可能有所不同。
The right choice was out there, right in front of them.
正确的选择就在那里，就在他们面前。
They saw it and they rejected the right choice.
他们看到了这一点，并拒绝了正确的选择。
Something stopped them.
有什么东西阻止了他们。
What stops us from choosing the best thing for us?
是什么阻止我们选择最适合自己的东西？
So interesting, right?
很有趣，对吧？
Answers from WBEZ Chicago, it's This American Life.
来自 WBEZ 芝加哥的回答，这就是《美国生活》。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Stay with us.
留在我们身边。
Act One: Swish Miss Ira Glass Act 1-- "Swish, Miss".
第一幕：Swish Ira Glass 小姐 第一幕——“Swish，小姐”。
So this first wrong choice we're going to talk about in our show, it was made by an athlete who absolutely knew what the right choice could do for him.
因此，我们将在节目中讨论的第一个错误选择是由一位运动员做出的，他绝对知道正确的选择可以为他带来什么。
This story comes from Malcolm Gladwell, who's best known as the author of books like The Tipping Point .
这个故事来自马尔科姆·格拉德威尔，他最著名的作品是《引爆点》等书籍的作者。
Malcolm has started a new podcast called Revisionist History .
马尔科姆开始了一个名为“修正主义历史”的新播客。
And he let us adapt one of his stories to play for you now.
他让我们改编他的一个故事，现在为您播放。
Here he is.
他在这里。
The greatest game of basketball anyone has ever played was in Hershey, Pennsylvania, March 2nd, 1962.
有史以来最伟大的篮球比赛是 1962 年 3 月 2 日在宾夕法尼亚州赫尔希举行的。
Here's the big fourth quarter.
这是重要的第四季度。
And everybody's thinking how many does Wilt got to get?
每个人都在想威尔特能得到多少？
He's got 69 gone in.
他已经拿到了69分。
Here's the pass to him.
这是给他的通行证。
He's got another one.
他还有另一张。
Any time--
任何时候——
Cold winter night, just over 4,000 people in the stands.
寒冷的冬夜，看台上只有4000多人。
Philadelphia Warriors vs. The New York Knicks.
费城勇士队对阵纽约尼克斯队。
--defense honest.
——防守诚实。
When [INAUDIBLE] that have the good shot, they're taking it.
当[听不清]有好的机会时，他们就会抓住机会。
But mostly they're setting up the big man.
但大多数情况下他们是在陷害大人物。
The star of the Warriors was a man named Wilt Chamberlain-- no doubt you've heard of him-- 7'1", 275 pounds.
勇士队的明星球员名叫威尔特·张伯伦（Wilt Chamberlain）——毫无疑问您听说过他——身高 7 英尺 1 英寸，体重 275 磅。
For sheer physical presence, there has probably never been anyone like Wilt.
就纯粹的身体存在而言，可能从来没有像威尔特这样的人。
There are lots of seven footers who play basketball, who are basically on the court purely because they're seven feet tall.
有很多七英尺高的人打篮球，他们出现在球场上纯粹是因为他们有七英尺高。
They're clumsy and ungainly.
他们笨拙且笨拙。
Chamberlain was not like that.
张伯伦不是那样的人。
He was as big as an oak tree and as graceful as a ballet dancer.
他像橡树一样高大，像芭蕾舞演员一样优雅。
That season, 1961 to 1962, he ended up averaging more than 50 points a game.
1961年至1962年的那个赛季，他场均得分超过50分。
That record will never be broken.
这个记录永远不会被打破。
Chamberlain with a rebound.
张伯伦篮板球。
Taps it in.
点按进去。
Chamberlain taps it in--
张伯伦将其打入——
So March 2nd, Wilt was hungover.
3月2日，威尔特宿醉了。
He'd been out all night with a woman he picked up at a bar.
他和一个在酒吧认识的女人出去了一整夜。
That's classic Wilt, too.
这也是威尔特的经典之作。
He would later claim to have slept with 20,000 women in his life.
他后来声称一生中睡过 20,000 个女人。
And when he said that, lots of people did the math and said, there was no way that was possible, given the fact that there are only 24 hours in a day, and Wilt only lived to the age of 63.
当他说出这句话时，很多人算了一下，然后说，这不可能，因为一天只有 24 小时，而且威尔特只活到了 63 岁。
But even the skeptics were like, well, maybe it's 10,000 or 8,000.
但即使是怀疑论者也会说，好吧，也许是 10,000 或 8,000。
It was an argument over whether it was an unbelievably high number, or merely an incredibly high number.
关于这个数字到底是一个令人难以置信的高数字，还是仅仅是一个令人难以置信的高数字，存在着争论。
[INAUDIBLE] ...happy to be with you on this historic occasion.
[听不清] ...很高兴在这个历史性的时刻与您在一起。
So back to the game in question.
回到有问题的游戏。
Chamberlain makes his first five shots and has 23 points at the end of the first quarter.
张伯伦前五投全中，第一节结束时得到23分。
At halftime, he has 41 points.
半场结束，他得到41分。
No one's thinking history just yet.
目前还没有人思考历史。
But then, by the end of the third quarter, he has 69 points.
但到了第三节结束时，他已经得到了69分。
And he keeps going and going and going.
他继续前进、前进、前进。
The rebound, [INAUDIBLE].
反弹，[听不清]。
That's directly into Chamber-- he made it!
直接进入Chamber——他做到了！
He made it!
他做到了！
He made it!
他做到了！
A different dunk!
不一样的扣篮！
He made it!
他做到了！
The fans are all over the floor!
粉丝满地都是！
100 points, the most anyone has ever scored in a professional basketball game.
100分，是职业篮球比赛中得分最高的球员。
And here is the most incredible thing about it-- he shot brilliantly from the foul line, made 87.5% of his shots.
最令人难以置信的是——他在罚球线上的投篮非常出色，投篮命中率为87.5%。
The reason that's incredible is that Chamberlain was a horrendous free throw shooter, the worst.
令人难以置信的原因是张伯伦是一个可怕的罚球射手，是最差的。
He was a man who could score at will with two and sometimes three defenders draped all over his body.
他是一个可以在两名甚至三名防守队员的情况下随意得分的人。
But put him all alone, 15 feet from the basket, and he was hopeless.
但如果让他独自一人，距离篮筐 15 英尺，他就毫无希望了。
There were seasons in his career where he shot 40% from the free throw line.
在他的职业生涯中，有几个赛季他的罚球命中率高达 40%。
That's terrible.
太可怕了。
But this season, Chamberlain changes tactics.
但本赛季，张伯伦改变了战术。
He starts to shoot his foul shots underhanded.
他开始用低手投篮。
He doesn't release the ball up by his forehead.
他没有将球放在额头上。
He holds the ball between his knees and flicks it towards the basket from a slight crouch.
他将球夹在膝盖之间，稍微蹲下，将球弹向篮筐。
Some people call that a granny shot.
有些人称之为老奶奶射击。
And all of a sudden, he's a pretty good free throw shooter.
突然之间，他成为了一名非常出色的罚球射手。
He gets up to more than 60%.
他达到了60%以上。
And that special night in Hershey, Pennsylvania, he's an incredible free throw shooter.
在宾夕法尼亚州赫尔希的那个特别的夜晚，他是一位令人难以置信的罚球射手。
Chamberlain on the line.
张伯伦上线。
Foul shot, up in the air.
犯规，在空中。
He has 84.
他有84个。
He makes 28 free throws, the most anyone has ever made in a regular season game in NBA history.
他罚球 28 次，是 NBA 历史上常规赛罚球次数最多的球员。
20?
20？
What?
什么？
Rick Barry 28.
里克·巴里 28.
He made 28 out of 30.
他在 30 分中得到了 28 分。
You beat that?
你打败了吗？
Rick Barry It's 30 or 32, yeah.
Rick Barry 是的，30 或 32 岁。
That's Rick Barry speaking.
这是里克·巴里的发言。
He played in the NBA at the same time as Chamberlain, also a Hall of Famer, an absolutely unstoppable scorer from almost anywhere on the court, especially the foul line.
他与张伯伦同时在NBA打球，张伯伦也是名人堂成员，几乎在球场上的任何地方，尤其是在罚球线上，都是绝对不可阻挡的得分手。
I met him at his condo in South Carolina earlier this year.
今年早些时候，我在他位于南卡罗来纳州的公寓遇见了他。
He was living there so he could follow his son, Canyon, who was playing basketball for the College of Charleston at the time.
他住在那里，这样他就可以跟随他的儿子 Canyon，当时他正在查尔斯顿学院打篮球。
Barry is 72, 6'8" tall, barrel chest, legs that look like he had special extensions put on them.
巴里身高 72 岁，身高 6 英尺 8 英寸，桶状胸，双腿看起来像是加了特殊的延长件。
And that thing that great athletes have and never seem to lose, which is that they kind of glide across the floor, like they have wheels on.
伟大的运动员拥有并且似乎永远不会失去的东西，那就是他们在地板上滑行，就像他们有轮子一样。
What Rick Barry will tell you is that shooting underhanded is simply a better way to make foul shots.
里克·巴里（Rick Barry）会告诉你的是，低手投篮是犯规的更好方法。
And he knows that because he was one of the greatest foul shooters of all time.
他知道这一点，因为他是有史以来最伟大的罚球手之一。
I missed 10 in one season and 9 in another, in the whole season.
整个赛季我一个赛季缺席了 10 次，另一个赛季缺席了 9 次。
To put that in perspective, if LeBron James-- who may be the greatest player of his generation-- if he was as good from the foul line as Rick Barry, he would have scored hundreds-- in fact-- over 1,000 more points over the course of his career.
客观地说，如果勒布朗·詹姆斯——他可能是这一代人中最伟大的球员——如果他在罚球线上的表现像里克·巴里一样出色，那么他在职业生涯中会得到数百分——事实上——超过 1,000 分。
I think I shot 93.5 or something and 94.7, something like that.
我想我打出了 93.5 左右的成绩，然后又打出了 94.7 左右的成绩。
From the physics standpoint, it's a much better way to shoot.
从物理学的角度来看，这是一种更好的射击方式。
Less things that can go wrong, less things that you have to worry about repeating properly in order for it to be successful.
更少可能出错的事情，更少需要担心正确重复才能成功的事情。
But the other thing is, is that who walks around like this?
但另一件事是，谁是这样走来走去的？
Barry put his hands up in the air, holding an imaginary ball, mimicking the way everyone else shoots free throws.
巴里双手举在空中，手里拿着一个假想的球，模仿其他人罚球的方式。
This is not a natural position.
这不是一个自然的立场。
When I shoot underhand in free throws, where are my arms?
当我罚球时低手投篮时，我的手臂在哪里？
Hanging straight down, the way they are normally.
笔直垂下，就像平常一样。
And so I'm totally and completely relaxed.
所以我完全放松了。
It's not in the situation where I have to worry about my muscles getting tense or tight.
这并不是我必须担心我的肌肉变得紧张或紧绷的情况。
And then the shot itself, it's a much softer shot.
然后是镜头本身，这是一个柔和得多的镜头。
So many of my shots, even if they're a little off, they hit so nice and soft, and they'll still fall in the basket.
我的很多投篮，即使有一点偏差，它们的击球又漂亮又柔和，而且仍然会落入篮筐。
The soft bounce.
软弹跳。
Rick Barry Much softer touch.
里克·巴里 (Rick Barry) 触感更柔和。
And so you have a little bit more margin for error than when you shoot overhand.
因此，与上手投篮相比，你犯错的余地要大一些。
So Wilt Chamberlain switches to a better shooting technique.
因此威尔特·张伯伦转向了更好的投篮技术。
It pays off in the greatest basketball game ever played.
它在有史以来最伟大的篮球比赛中得到了回报。
He's playing the way that Rick Barry proved basketball players ought to play.
他正在以里克·巴里（Rick Barry）证明的篮球运动员应该打球的方式打球。
Then, inexplicably, Wilt Chamberlain stops shooting underhanded.
然后，令人费解的是，威尔特·张伯伦停止了低手投篮。
And what happens?
会发生什么？
He goes back to being a terrible foul shooter.
他又变回了一个糟糕的罚球手。
Let's think about what he did for a moment.
让我们想一下他做了什么。
Chamberlain had a problem.
张伯伦有一个问题。
He tested out a possible solution.
他测试了一个可能的解决方案。
The solution worked.
该解决方案奏效了。
And all of a sudden, he's fixed his biggest weakness as a player.
突然之间，他解决了作为一名球员的最大弱点。
This is not a trivial matter.
这不是一件小事。
If you're a basketball player and you can't hit your free throws, you're an incredible liability to your team, particularly at the end of close games.
如果你是一名篮球运动员，而你无法命中罚球，那么你对你的球队来说就是一个难以置信的责任，特别是在势均力敌的比赛结束时。
The other side simply fouls you every time you touch the ball because they know you'll miss your free throw and they'll get the ball back.
每次你触球时，对方都会对你犯规，因为他们知道你会错过罚球，而他们会把球拿回来。
If you can't hit your foul shots, it means you can't be used in a tight game.
如果你不能命中罚球，就意味着你无法在紧张的比赛中发挥作用。
You know what Chamberlain's coach said to him about his free throws?
你知道张伯伦的教练对他的罚球说了些什么吗？
"If you were a 90% shooter, we might never lose." They didn't play on the same team, but Rick Barry got to know Chamberlain pretty well.
“如果你是一个 90% 的射手，我们可能永远不会输。”他们并不在同一支球队，但里克·巴里对张伯伦非常了解。
I got to know him, you know?
我认识他了，你知道吗？
And I just joked with him and said, your technique was terrible.
我只是跟他开玩笑说，你的技术太糟糕了。
But I mean, had you stuck with it-- I mean, there's no telling what he would have done.
但我的意思是，如果你坚持下去——我的意思是，不知道他会做什么。
I mean, the numbers he would have put up would have been insane.
我的意思是，他提出的数字是疯狂的。
Because the only way they defended him was to foul him.
因为他们防守他的唯一方法就是对他犯规。
Chamberlain had every incentive in the world to keep shooting free throws underhanded, and he didn't.
张伯伦有充分的理由继续暗中罚球，但他没有。
I think when people don't do the thing they ought to do, we assume it's because of ignorance.
我认为当人们没有做他们应该做的事情时，我们会认为这是因为无知。
This is not that.
这不是那个。
This is doing something dumb even though you're fully aware that you're doing something dumb.
这是在做一些愚蠢的事情，即使你完全意识到自己在做一些愚蠢的事情。
By the way, there had been countless players like Chamberlain, players who could have been transcendent, devastating, if only they had been open to taking foul shots a different way.
顺便说一句，像张伯伦这样的球员不计其数，如果他们愿意以不同的方式罚球的话，他们本可以成为卓越的、具有毁灭性的球员。
Take Shaquille O'Neal, up there with Wilt Chamberlain as one of the greatest NBA centers of all time, but an absolutely horrendous free throw shooter.
以沙奎尔·奥尼尔（Shaquille O'Neal）为例，他与威尔特·张伯伦（Wilt Chamberlain）齐名，是NBA历史上最伟大的中锋之一，但罚球手却绝对是可怕的。
Shaq even inspired a term, Hack-a-Shaq, which means intentionally fouling Shaquille O'Neal-- or any other terrible free throw shooter-- in order to put them on the foul line, where they're likely to miss their shots.
沙克甚至启发了一个术语“Hack-a-Shaq”，这意味着故意对沙奎尔·奥尼尔（Shaquille O'Neal）或任何其他糟糕的罚球射手犯规，以便将他们送上罚球线，这样他们很可能会投失投篮。
Shaq's inability to shoot free throws drove Rick Barry nuts.
沙克无法罚球让里克·巴里抓狂。
Barry tried to reason with him.
巴里试图跟他讲道理。
Oh, you actually talked to Shaquille O'Neal?
哦，你真的和沙奎尔·奥尼尔谈过吗？
Shaquille O'Neal?
沙奎尔·奥尼尔？
Rick Barry Shaquille O'Neal, when I tried to get him to do it, he said, forget it.
里克·巴里·沙奎尔·奥尼尔，当我试图让他这么做时，他说，算了。
I'd rather shoot 0 than shoot underhanded.
我宁愿投0分也不愿低手投篮。
I don't understand that.
我不明白。
Malcolm Gladwell No one shoots underhanded.
马尔科姆·格拉德威尔 没有人会用低手射击。
Not even Barry's teammates followed his lead, people who saw him shoot that way every day and never miss.
就连巴里的队友也没有追随他的脚步，人们每天都看到他那样投篮，从未失手。
One guy, only-- Malcolm Gladwell One man, who's that?
只有一个人——马尔科姆·格拉德威尔 一个人，那是谁？
George Johnson, my teammate with the Warriors.
乔治·约翰逊，我在勇士队的队友。
I think he was like, 48%, 50%, something like that.
我认为他是 48%、50% 之类的。
And I worked with him for one season.
我和他一起工作了一个赛季。
I didn't get to stay with him.
我没能留在他身边。
He didn't get the technique down as much as I'd like it.
他并没有像我希望的那样掌握这项技术。
But I think eventually, a season or two later, I think George actually shot 80%.
但我认为最终，一两个赛季后，我认为乔治的投篮命中率实际上达到了 80%。
I could actually look it up.
我其实可以查一下。
It would be interesting to see what he did.
看看他做了什么会很有趣。
I'll get George Johnson's stats here.
我会在这里得到乔治·约翰逊的统计数据。
Let me see.
让我看看。
George Johnson's stats.
乔治·约翰逊的数据。
Whoops.
哎呀。
OK.
好的。
Stats for George Johnson, NBA.
NBA 乔治·约翰逊的统计数据。
Here are George Johnson's stats from the 2015 NFL season.
以下是乔治·约翰逊 2015 年 NFL 赛季的统计数据。
NFL.
国家橄榄球联盟。
That's great.
那太棒了。
Wrong guy, wrong season.
错误的人，错误的季节。
But anyway, we'll look it up.
但无论如何，我们都会查一下。
It's interesting.
这很有趣。
It's actually more dramatic than Barry said.
事实上，事情比巴里说的更戏剧化。
Johnson was once a 40% free throw shooter.
约翰逊曾经是一名罚球命中率达到 40% 的射手。
And he ended up over 80%-- twice as good.
结果他的成绩超过了 80%——是原来的两倍。
But I mean, what about one your high school team?
但我的意思是，你的高中球队怎么样？
Did anyone throw underhand?
有人下手投球吗？
Oh no, nobody.
哦不，没有人。
No. I've only had one guy ever come to me.
不，只有一个人来找过我。
An NBA guy came to me.
一个NBA球员来找我。
I won't tell you his name.
我不会告诉你他的名字。
But he came to me, he asked me to work with him.
但他来找我，邀请我和他一起工作。
I did it.
我做到了。
I worked with him.
我和他一起工作。
I had him shooting really well.
我让他投篮非常好。
And he never had the nerve to go back and do it when he went back.
而他回去之后就再也没有勇气回去做了。
Can you tell me his name?
你能告诉我他的名字吗？
Rick Barry Nah, I don't want to tell his name.
Rick Barry 不，我不想告诉他的名字。
It's not fair to him.
这对他不公平。
I don't want to say his name.
我不想说出他的名字。
It's not fair to him, like it's some kind of dark, shameful secret.
这对他不公平，就像这是某种黑暗、可耻的秘密。
College basketball is no different.
大学篮球也不例外。
Out of the thousands of college basketball players last season, there were-- as far as I can tell-- just two who shot underhanded.
据我所知，上赛季数千名大学篮球运动员中，只有两人是低手投篮。
One is a Nigerian-American who played for Louisville, named Chinanu Onuaku.
其中一位是效力于路易斯维尔大学的尼日利亚裔美国人，名叫奇纳努·奥努阿库(Chinanu Onuaku)。
The other, is Canyon Barry, who played for the College of Charleston, and who-- in case you missed this earlier-- happens to be Rick Barry's son.
另一个是坎恩·巴里 (Canyon Barry)，他为查尔斯顿学院 (College of Charleston) 效力，如果您之前错过了这一点，他恰好是里克·巴里 (Rick Barry) 的儿子。
In other words, there are only two conditions under which people will try the underhanded free throw.
换句话说，只有两种情况人们才会尝试低手罚球。
One, if their family is from another continent, and two, if they're an offspring of Rick Barry.
一，如果他们的家人来自另一个大陆，二，如果他们是里克·巴里的后代。
Here's why I went all the way to South Carolina to talk to Rick Barry-- not because I'm obsessed with basketball, although I am-- but because the strange story of the underhanded free throw is a really good way of thinking about something that has always puzzled me.
这就是为什么我千里迢迢来到南卡罗来纳州与里克·巴里交谈的原因——不是因为我痴迷于篮球，尽管我确实如此——而是因为暗手罚球的奇怪故事是一个很好的方式来思考一直困扰我的问题。
Why do some good ideas spread and others go nowhere?
为什么一些好的想法能够传播开来，而另一些则一事无成？
We like to think that good ideas will spread because they're good, because their advantages are obvious.
我们喜欢认为好的想法会传播，因为它们很好，因为它们的优点是显而易见的。
But that's plainly not true.
但这显然不是真的。
So why don't they?
那么他们为什么不呢？
Or to put it another way, what is it about Rick Barry that allowed him to shoot this way?
或者换句话说，瑞克·巴里到底是什么原因让他能够这样投篮呢？
And what is it about Wilt Chamberlain and all the others that made them resist?
威尔特·张伯伦和其他人又是什么让他们做出了抵制呢？
Let me try out a theory on you.
让我对你尝试一个理论。
It's from a sociologist named Mark Granovetter.
这是一位名叫马克·格兰诺维特的社会学家写的。
Granovetter is one of the greatest social theorists of his generation.
格兰诺维特是他这一代最伟大的社会理论家之一。
If you're an academic groupie like I am, Granovetter is like James Dean.
如果你像我一样是一个学术追随者，格兰诺维特就像詹姆斯·迪恩。
So Granovetter came up with something called the Threshold Model of Collective Behavior.
因此格兰诺维特提出了一种称为集体行为阈值模型的东西。
He was trying to answer the question of why people do things out of character.
他试图回答为什么人们会做出不符合性格的事情的问题。
He used riots as his big example.
他用骚乱作为他的一个重要例子。
Why do otherwise law-abiding citizens suddenly throw rocks through windows?
为什么原本守法的公民突然向窗户投掷石块？
Before Granovetter came along, sociologists tried to explain that kind of puzzling behavior in terms of beliefs.
在格兰诺维特出现之前，社会学家试图用信仰来解释这种令人费解的行为。
So the thinking went-- you and I have a set of beliefs.
所以我们的想法是——你和我有一套信念。
But when you throw the rock through the window, something powerful must have happened in the moment to change your beliefs.
但当你把石头扔进窗户时，那一刻一定发生了一些强大的事情来改变你的信念。
Something about the crowd transforms the way you think.
人群中的某些东西会改变你的思维方式。
Here's Granovetter explaining that idea.
格兰诺维特解释了这个想法。
There was a lot of intellectual tradition that said that when people got into a crowd their independent judgment went out the window, and that they somehow became creatures of the crowd, and that there was some kind of miasma of irrationality that would settle over people.
有很多知识分子传统认为，当人们融入人群时，他们的独立判断就被抛到了窗外，他们不知何故成为了人群的产物，人们身上笼罩着某种非理性的瘴气。
And they would act in ways that they would never act if they were by themselves or they weren't influenced by the mob mentality.
他们的行为方式是如果他们独自一人或不受暴民心态影响就永远不会采取的行为。
But Granovetter doesn't buy it.
但格兰诺维特并不买账。
He doesn't think that being part of the mob casts some kind of spell that makes everyone irrational.
他不认为成为暴徒的一部分会施展某种魔咒，让每个人都失去理性。
He says, it's all about thresholds.
他说，这都是关于门槛的。
Now, what does Granovetter mean by that word, "threshold"?
现在，格兰诺维特所说的“阈值”是什么意思？
A belief is an internal thing.
信念是一种内在的东西。
It's a position we've taken in our head or in our heart.
这是我们在头脑或心中所采取的立场。
But unlike beliefs, thresholds are external.
但与信念不同的是，门槛是外在的。
They're about peer pressure.
他们是关于同侪压力的。
Your threshold is the number of people who have to do something before you join in.
你的门槛是在你加入之前必须做某事的人数。
Granovetter makes two crucial arguments.
格兰诺维特提出了两个关键论点。
The first is that thresholds and beliefs sometimes overlap.
首先，阈值和信念有时会重叠。
But a lot of the time, they don't.
但很多时候，他们不这样做。
When your teenage son is driving 100 miles an hour at midnight with three of his friends in your Toyota Camry, it's not because he believes that driving 100 miles per hour is a good idea.
当你十几岁的儿子在半夜和他的三个朋友开着你的丰田凯美瑞以每小时 100 英里的速度行驶时，这并不是因为他认为以每小时 100 英里的速度行驶是个好主意。
In that moment, his beliefs are irrelevant.
在那一刻，他的信念变得无关紧要。
His behavior is guided by his threshold.
他的行为是由他的阈值引导的。
An 18-year-old may be drunk at midnight in a car with three of his friends.
一名 18 岁的年轻人可能在午夜与他的三个朋友在车里喝醉了。
That person has a really, really low threshold.
这个人的门槛实在是太低了。
It doesn't take a lot of encouragement to get him to do something stupid.
不需要太多的鼓励就能让他做一些蠢事。
Granovetter's second point is just as important.
格兰诺维特的第二点同样重要。
Everyone's threshold is different.
每个人的门槛不一样。
There are plenty of radicals and troublemakers who might need only slight encouragement to throw that rock.
有很多激进分子和麻烦制造者可能只需要一点点鼓励就可以扔石头。
Their threshold is really low.
他们的门槛确实很低。
But think about your grandmother.
但想想你的祖母。
She might well need her sister, her grandchildren, her neighbors, her friends from church, all of them to be throwing rocks before she would even dream of joining in.
她很可能需要她的姐姐、她的孙子、她的邻居、她教会的朋友，所有这些人都向她扔石头，然后她才梦想加入。
She's got a high threshold.
她的门槛很高。
The riot has to be going on for a very long time and has to involve a whole lot of people before grandma will join in.
骚乱必须持续很长时间，并且涉及很多人，奶奶才会加入进来。
But there are times when even grandmothers might throw rocks through windows.
但有时，即使是祖母也会向窗户扔石头。
Granovetter's theory explained a lot of things that had been puzzling to me.
格兰诺维特的理论解释了很多我一直困惑的事情。
So here's a good example-- it's from an interview I did at the 92nd Street Y in New York, with the economist, Richard Thaler, who is one of the leading lights in what's called Behavioral Economics.
这是一个很好的例子——来自我在纽约第 92 街 Y 采访经济学家理查德·塞勒 (Richard Thaler)，他是行为经济学领域的领军人物之一。
He had a book coming out called Misbehaving.
他出版了一本书，名为《行为不当》。
And I really liked it.
我真的很喜欢它。
And we thought it would be fun if we did an event together.
我们认为如果我们一起举办一个活动会很有趣。
[APPLAUSE] Malcolm Gladwell You and I have met before.
[掌声] 马尔科姆·格拉德威尔 你和我以前见过面。
Well, the first time we met was at a hotel bar in Rochester?
嗯，我们第一次见面是在罗彻斯特的一家酒店酒吧？
Yes.
是的。
Malcolm Gladwell Thaler's the kind of guy who's interested in everything, including sports.
马尔科姆·格拉德威尔·塞勒是那种对一切都感兴趣的人，包括运动。
And there was a point in our conversation when he started to talk about the fact that the owners of professional football teams do things on occasion that are really stupid and inexplicable.
在我们谈话的某个时刻，他开始谈论职业足球队老板有时会做一些非常愚蠢和令人费解的事情。
Take the professional football draft.
以职业足球选秀为例。
For those of you who are not football fans, let me explain.
对于那些不是足球迷的人，让我解释一下。
Every year, all the draft-eligible college football players are thrown into a big pool.
每年，所有符合选秀资格的大学橄榄球运动员都会被扔进一个大池中。
And the 32 professional football teams pick the players they want, one by one.
而32支职业足球队则一一挑选他们想要的球员。
The first player taken is the one that people think will be the best professional player.
第一个被选中的选手是人们认为最好的职业选手。
That person gets the biggest salary.
那个人的薪水最高。
The second player taken is the one predicted to be the second-best professional player, and so on.
第二个被选中的选手是预测为第二好的职业选手的选手，依此类推。
And after every team has picked one player each, they all start again and do another round.
每支球队选出一名球员后，他们都会重新开始并进行另一轮比赛。
Because the players selected in the first round are considered the most valuable, all the teams fight over them.
因为第一轮选中的球员被认为是最有价值的，所以所有球队都在争夺他们。
They pay enormous sums of money and construct elaborate deals to try and acquire those high draft picks.
他们支付巨额资金并精心策划交易来试图获得这些高选秀权。
The interesting thing about that is there's a market for picks.
有趣的是，选秀权是有市场的。
So you can trade the first pick for, say, half a dozen second-round picks.
所以你可以用第一轮选秀权换取六个第二轮选秀权。
That's what the market says.
市场就是这么说的。
Now, that implies that the first pick is five times more valuable than an early pick in the second round.
现在，这意味着第一顺位的价值是第二轮早期选秀权的五倍。
Thaler and a colleague named Cade Massey decide to analyze this assumption.
塞勒和一位名叫凯德·梅西的同事决定分析这个假设。
Was it really true that a first-round pick was worth half a dozen second-round picks?
一个首轮选秀权真的值六个第二轮选秀权吗？
If you compute the surplus a player provides to his team-- meaning how good his performance is-- minus how much you have to pay him, what we found is these second-round picks are actually more valuable than that first pick.
如果你计算一个球员为他的球队提供的盈余——意味着他的表现有多好——减去你必须付给他的钱，我们发现这些第二轮选秀权实际上比第一轮选秀权更有价值。
But you could get five of those for that pick.
但你可以通过这个选秀权得到其中的五个。
It's the biggest anomaly I've ever found.
这是我发现的最大的异常。
The implication of Thaler and Massey's work is that teams should trade away their first-round picks.
塞勒和梅西的工作意味着球队应该放弃他们的首轮选秀权。
They should stockpile players in the second and third rounds, who can be paid a lot less and are nearly as good.
他们应该在第二轮和第三轮储备球员，这些球员的薪水要低得多，但几乎同样优秀。
This is how you build a winning football team.
这就是建立一支获胜足球队的方法。
So what was the reaction of NFL teams to Thaler's idea?
那么 NFL 球队对塞勒的想法有何反应？
Well, not long after he and Cade Massey did their research, they got a call from the Washington Redskins.
好吧，在他和凯德·梅西完成研究后不久，他们接到了华盛顿红皮队的电话。
It was early in Dan Snyder's tenure as owner.
那是丹·斯奈德（Dan Snyder）担任老板的早期阶段。
And I met him.
我遇见了他。
And he said, oh, we want to know about this.
他说，哦，我们想知道这个。
And he introduced me.
他介绍了我。
He said, I'm going to send my people to see you.
他说，我要派我的人来见你。
And they flew out to Chicago and met with Cade and me.
他们飞往芝加哥并会见了凯德和我。
And so anyway, we taught his guys-- Dan's guys-- what to do.
所以无论如何，我们教他的人——丹的人——该怎么做。
And then we watched the draft eagerly that year.
然后我们热切地观看了那一年的选秀。
And what did they see?
他们看到了什么？
The Redskins did the exact opposite of what they should have done if they were rational.
红皮队的做法与他们理性时应该做的完全相反。
And they weren't the only ones.
他们并不是唯一的人。
Thaler and Massey have consulted for three NFL franchises now, and no one has ever followed their advice.
塞勒和梅西现在已经为三支 NFL 球队提供了咨询，但没有人听从他们的建议。
It gets worse.
情况变得更糟。
There's a very respected economist named David Romer, who famously proved that football teams would win more games if they didn't punt, if they simply used all four downs to try and gain 10 yards, as opposed to giving the ball away to their opponents.
有一位非常受人尊敬的经济学家，名叫大卫·罗默（David Romer），他有一个著名的证明，如果橄榄球队不弃踢，只要他们简单地利用所有四次进攻来尝试获得 10 码，而不是将球交给对手，他们就会赢得更多比赛。
So since Romer published his work, are NFL teams less likely to punt on fourth down?
那么，自从罗默发表了他的作品以来，NFL 球队是否不太可能在第四回合下注？
You guessed it.
你猜对了。
No.
不。
And to tell you how big this is, if you did this right, we think you'd win one game a year more.
告诉你这有多大，如果你做得对，我们认为你会在一年内多赢一场比赛。
If you also learned to go for it more often on fourth down, another game and a half.
如果你还学会了在第四次进攻时更频繁地进攻，那就再打一场半。
So just being smart, you would win at least two games a year on average.
所以只要聪明一点，你平均每年至少能赢得两场比赛。
Two extra wins in a 16-game season, just by acting a little bit differently.
在 16 场比赛的赛季中额外赢得两场胜利，只是表现稍有不同。
Who wouldn't do that?
谁不会这样做呢？
But nobody would!
但没有人愿意！
Now, is that because they're stupid, because they have irrational beliefs?
那么，这是因为他们愚蠢，因为他们有非理性的信念吗？
That was my first thought when I was listening to Thaler talk about his football research.
当我听泰勒谈论他的足球研究时，这是我的第一个想法。
Those dumb football owners.
那些愚蠢的足球老板。
But that can't be right.
但这是不对的。
You don't get to their level by being dumb.
愚蠢是达不到他们的水平的。
Surely this is about thresholds.
当然，这与阈值有关。
Football owners and coaches are a small group of people.
足球老板和教练是一小群人。
They all know each other.
他们都互相认识。
They've all done things a certain way for a long time.
很长一段时间以来，他们都以某种方式做事。
And doing things that way has made them a lot of money.
这样做让他们赚了很多钱。
They have a high threshold.
他们的门槛很高。
These are a bunch of grandmothers.
这是一群祖母。
The only way any of them is going to change their behavior is if some radical goes first.
他们中任何人想要改变自己行为的唯一方法就是一些激进分子先行。
And there are no radical owners in the NFL.
NFL 中没有激进的老板。
There's just Richard Thaler, a geeky middle-aged economist from the University of Chicago, with a bunch of equations that you need a PhD to understand.
只有理查德·塞勒（Richard Thaler），一位来自芝加哥大学的怪异中年经济学家，他有一堆需要博士学位才能理解的方程。
There's some geek at every team who's read our paper.
每个团队都有一些极客读过我们的论文。
You know, think of the Jonah Hill character in the movie Moneyball , right?
你知道，想想电影《点球成金》中乔纳·希尔的角色，对吧？
And nobody pays attention to that guy.
没有人注意那个家伙。
Apparently there aren't a lot of radicals in basketball either.
显然篮球界也没有很多激进分子。
Just the Barrys, and Chinanu Onuaku, the Nigerian-American who played for Louisville.
只有巴里夫妇和效力于路易斯维尔队的尼日利亚裔美国人奇纳努·奥努阿库。
This, I think, gets us a little closer to the puzzle of Wilt Chamberlain.
我认为，这让我们更接近威尔特·张伯伦的谜题。
In his autobiography, he has this throwaway comment on the subject of shooting underhanded.
在他的自传中，他对暗中射击的主题做出了这样的随意评论。
Chamberlain wrote-- "I felt silly, like a sissy, shooting underhanded.
张伯伦写道：“我觉得自己很愚蠢，就像个娘娘腔，在卑鄙的射击中。
I know I was wrong.
我知道我错了。
I know some of the best foul shooters in history shot that way.
我知道历史上一些最好的罚球手都是这样投篮的。
Even now, the best one in the NBA, Rick Barry, shoots underhanded.
即使是现在，NBA 最好的球员里克·巴里 (Rick Barry) 的投篮仍是低手。
I just couldn't do it."
我就是做不到。”
Two key things here.
这里有两个关键的事情。
First he writes, "I know I was wrong." Just as Granovetter would say, it's not Chamberlain's beliefs that are getting in the way.
他首先写道：“我知道我错了。”正如格兰诺维特所说，阻碍的不是张伯伦的信念。
He knows it's wrong.
他知道这是错误的。
Then "I felt silly, like a sissy." His doesn't want to look foolish.
然后“我觉得自己很傻，像个娘娘腔”。他不想显得愚蠢。
He's a high-threshold guy.
他是一个门槛很高的人。
He needs everyone to be doing something new before he's willing to join in.
他需要每个人都做一些新的事情，然后他才愿意加入。
But Rick Barry?
但是里克·巴里？
He's different.
他不一样。
Rick Barry's dad comes to him when he's a junior in high school and says, you really ought to shoot underhanded.
当里克·巴里（Rick Barry）读高中三年级时，他的父亲来找他说，你真的应该用低手射击。
Rick's a pretty good free throw shooter at that point, maybe 70% or so.
那时里克的罚球命中率相当不错，大概有 70% 左右。
But his dad tells him he can do better.
但他的父亲告诉他他可以做得更好。
And your initial reaction is I don't want to do it?
你的第一反应是我不想这样做？
Right.
正确的。
Malcolm Gladwell Because it seemed to you, like--
马尔科姆·格拉德威尔 因为在你看来，就像——
I said, dad--I always remember it, and I tell people-- Dad, they're going to make fun of me.
我说，爸爸——我一直记得，我告诉人们——爸爸，他们会取笑我的。
That's the way the girls shoot.
姑娘们就是这样拍的。
I can't do that.
我不能那样做。
He said, son-- and I remember this so clearly, like it was yesterday-- son, they can't make fun of you if you're making them.
他说，儿子——我记得很清楚，就像昨天一样——儿子，如果你在制造他们，他们就不能取笑你。
And the first game I remember where I did it, it was on the road in Scotch Plains, New Jersey.
我记得我在哪里做的第一场比赛是在新泽西州苏格兰平原的路上。
I shot the free throw.
我罚球了。
Guy in the stands yells out, Hey Barry, you big sissy, shooting like that!
看台上的家伙大喊，嘿巴里，你这个大娘们，这样投篮！
And the guy next to him-- and I heard him very clearly-- he says, what are you making fun of him for?
他旁边的那个人——我听得很清楚——他说，你为什么取笑他？
He doesn't miss.
他不会错过。
So my dad's prophecy came true.
于是我爸爸的预言就实现了。
And I was cool from that point forward.
从那时起我就很冷静。
So I didn't care anymore what they said.
所以我不再关心他们说什么。
If I'm making 'em, that's all that really matters.
如果我正在制作它们，那才是真正重要的。
What's interesting is that Barry actually has the same initial reaction as Wilt Chamberlain-- I'm going to look like a sissy.
有趣的是，巴里的第一反应实际上和威尔特·张伯伦一样——我会看起来像个娘娘腔。
But he thinks about it, and he decides it doesn't bother him.
但他想了想，觉得这并不困扰他。
Or rather, his drive to be a better shooter is stronger than his worry about what others think of him.
或者更确切地说，他想要成为一名更好的射手的动力比他担心别人对他的看法更强烈。
That's exactly what it means to have a low threshold.
这正是门槛低的含义。
If you have a threshold of 0, you're someone who doesn't need the support or the approval or the company of others to do what you think is right.
如果你的门槛为0，那么你就是一个不需要他人支持、批准或陪伴就能做你认为正确的事情的人。
Now, here's the catch-- the person who thinks this way is not always easy to be around.
现在，问题是——有这种想法的人并不总是那么容易相处。
Barry was never embraced by his fellow players.
巴里从未受到其他球员的拥抱。
There were a couple of notorious articles about him in the 1980s, full of quotes like this from a former teammate-- "If you'd got to know Rick, you'd realize what a good guy he was.
20 世纪 80 年代有几篇关于他的臭名昭著的文章，其中充满了前队友的这样的引言——“如果你了解瑞克，你就会意识到他是一个多么好的人。
But around the league, they thought of him as the most arrogant guy ever." Half the players disliked Rick.
但在整个联盟，他们认为他是有史以来最傲慢的人。”一半的玩家不喜欢里克。
The other half hated him.
另一半讨厌他。
Here's another quote "He lacks diplomacy.
这是另一句话“他缺乏外交手腕。
If they sent him to the UN, he'd end up starting World War III."
如果他们把他送到联合国，他最终会引发第三次世界大战。”
Yeah, well I was about winning.
是的，我就是想赢。
I was about giving my best effort.
我要尽我最大的努力。
And I had a very difficult time accepting the fact-- I wouldn't accept the fact-- if a teammate is not going to play his hardest.
我很难接受这个事实——如果队友不竭尽全力，我不会接受这个事实。
Barry's been out of the game for more than 30 years.
巴里已经退出赛场 30 多年了。
But just talking about basketball made him tense.
但光是谈论篮球就让他紧张起来。
There was a right way to play the game.
有一个正确的方式来玩这个游戏。
And when people didn't play it the right way, it drove him crazy.
当人们没有以正确的方式演奏时，他就会发疯。
Watch a game, right?
看一场比赛吧？
Guy shoots free throw, misses.
盖伊罚球，未命中。
Everybody goes up, slaps his hand.
每个人都站起来，拍手。
What the-- where the hell did that come from?
这到底是从哪里来的？
I want to know who the guy is that started doing that, and who was the genius that said, man, that's a great idea.
我想知道是谁开始这样做的，谁是天才说，伙计，这是个好主意。
Let's go up and slap the guy's hand.
我们上去拍拍那家伙的手吧。
And let's go up, disturb his concentration, when he's supposed to be focusing on shooting his free throws, and worry about having to slap the hands of his teammates.
当他应该专注于罚球时，让我们上去打扰他的注意力，并担心不得不拍队友的手。
Do you hear what upsets him?
你听到什么让他不高兴了吗？
The social part of the game.
游戏的社交部分。
Players paying attention to each other's feelings as opposed to their own performance.
球员们关注彼此的感受，而不是自己的表现。
Plus the fact if he misses it, you should go up and smack him in the head for missing the free throw, not slap him on the hands and saying it's OK.
另外，如果他罚丢了，你应该上去打他罚球不中的头，而不是拍他的手说没关系。
Because it's not OK.
因为这不行。
You just cost us a point.
你只是让我们损失了一分。
I mean, I go nuts when I watch this kind of stuff.
我的意思是，当我看到这种东西时，我会发疯。
And nobody even talks about that.
甚至没有人谈论这一点。
And it's something that somebody brought up, somebody copied, and now everybody does it.
这是有人提出、有人复制的东西，现在每个人都在这样做。
And it's stupid.
这很愚蠢。
I just have a real problem with that.
我对此确实有一个问题。
Barry wrote an autobiography in 1972, called Confessions of a Basketball Gypsy , which I have to say, is one of the strangest autobiographies I've ever read.
巴里在1972年写了一本自传，名叫《一个篮球吉普赛人的自白》，我不得不说，这是我读过的最奇怪的自传之一。
There are sections of the book Barry gives over to various people in his life.
巴里将书中的某些部分交给了他生活中的不同人。
They each write a few pages.
他们每人写了几页。
And he seems to care not one iota about what these people say about him.
他似乎一点也不关心这些人对他的评价。
So here's his mother, comparing Barry to his older brother, Dennis.
这是他的母亲将巴里与他的哥哥丹尼斯进行比较。
"Rick has become famous and made a lot of money.
“瑞克已经出名了，也赚了很多钱。
But what is that?
但那是什么？
I think maybe, Dennis leads the better life."
我想也许丹尼斯过着更好的生活。”
And this is his ex-wife, describing how they first met.
这是他的前妻，正在描述他们第一次见面的情景。
"He was awful to me.
“他对我来说很糟糕。
He was always shoving me in the pool, and I hated him for it.
他总是把我推到泳池里，我因此讨厌他。
Oh, I could take it.
哦，我可以接受。
But there's always someone who goes too far, who does it more than the others, beyond endurance.
但总有人走得太远，比其他人做得更多，超出了忍耐力。
And for me, that was Rick." I would not let my parents and my wife say these things about me in my own autobiography.
对我来说，那就是里克。”我不会让我的父母和我的妻子在我自己的自传中谈论我的这些事情。
I let people say what they wanted.
我让人们说出他们想说的话。
I didn't ask for editorial rights, to be able to go through and see what they said and see, well no, I don't want that in there.
我没有要求编辑权，也没有要求能够浏览并看到他们所说的内容，好吧，不，我不想在那里。
I let them say what they wanted to say.
我让他们说他们想说的话。
He doesn't care.
他不在乎。
The kind of person who would let bad things be said about him in his own autobiography is the kind of person who would shoot a free throw that other people think looks ridiculous.
那种会在自己的自传中说自己坏话的人，就是那种会投出别人认为可笑的罚球的人。
I spent an afternoon with Barry at his condo.
我和巴里在他的公寓里度过了一个下午。
And I'd read all that stuff about him-- half the players disliked him, the other half hated him.
我读过所有关于他的资料——一半的球员不喜欢他，另一半则讨厌他。
And I kind of braced myself before I met him.
在见到他之前，我已经做好了心理准备。
But I liked him.
但我喜欢他。
Or maybe it makes more sense to say, that I really admired him.
或者说我真的很钦佩他可能更有意义。
Because I finally understood what someone like Rick Barry stands for.
因为我终于明白像里克·巴里这样的人代表什么了。
It's perfectionism.
这是完美主义。
And what is a perfectionist?
什么是完美主义者？
Someone who puts the responsibility of mastering the task at hand ahead of all social considerations, who would rather be right than liked.
一个将完成手头的任务的责任置于所有社会考虑之上的人，他们宁愿自己是正确的，也不愿被人喜欢。
And how can you be good at something complex, how can you reach your potential if you don't have a little bit of that inside you?
如果你内心没有一点点复杂的东西，你怎么能擅长做一些复杂的事情，你怎么能发挥你的潜力呢？
I know we've really only been talking about basketball, which is just a game in the end.
我知道我们实际上只是在谈论篮球，这最终只是一场比赛。
But the lesson here is much bigger than that.
但这里的教训远不止于此。
It takes courage to be good, social courage, to be honest with yourself, to do things the right way.
做好事需要勇气、社交勇气、对自己诚实、以正确的方式做事。
I think Barry understands the price he's paid for being the way he is.
我认为巴里明白他为自己的现状所付出的代价。
It kept coming up.
它不断出现。
I'm a good friend.
我是个好朋友。
I'm going to be honest with you.
我要对你说实话。
I'm going to be there if you need me.
如果你需要我，我会在那里。
I'm a good person.
我是个好人。
Yet, a lot of people don't think I am.
然而，很多人并不认为我是。
He's not describing an easy life.
他描述的并不是轻松的生活。
But think of what he gained.
但想想他得到了什么。
Rick Barry was the best basketball player he could possibly have been.
里克·巴里（Rick Barry）是他可能成为的最好的篮球运动员。
And Wilt Chamberlain could never say that.
威尔特·张伯伦永远不会这么说。
It's almost incomprehensible to me that someone could have that attitude, to sacrifice their success over worrying about how somebody feels about you or says about you.
我几乎无法理解有人会有这种态度，为了担心别人对你的感觉或对你的评价而牺牲自己的成功。
That's sad, really.
真的很伤心。
Barry says that years after the two of them stopped playing, he used to go to Wilt Chamberlain, and tell him, you should have come to me.
巴里说，在他们两人停止比赛多年后，他常常去找威尔特·张伯伦，告诉他，你应该来找我。
I could have helped you.
我本可以帮助你的。
Malcolm Gladwell, he's the host of the brand new podcast, Revisionist History .
马尔科姆·格拉德威尔，他是全新播客“修正主义历史”的主持人。
It's produced by Panoply.
它是由 Panoply 制作的。
It's free, and you can subscribe at www.revisionisthistory.com.
它是免费的，您可以在 www.revisionisthistory.com 上订阅。
Coming up-- those who don't pump Trump, hit a bump, get stumped, now chumps.
接下来——那些不支持特朗普的人，遇到了障碍，被难住了，现在变成了傻瓜。
That's in a minute from Chicago Public Radio, when our program continues.
芝加哥公共广播电台一分钟后我们的节目仍在继续。
This American Life , I'm Ira Glass.
这个美国生活，我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Each week on our program, of course, we choose a theme.
当然，每周我们的节目都会选择一个主题。
Today's show, choosing wrong, the stories of people looking at the right choice, considering the right choice, and then rejecting the right choice.
今天的节目，选择错误，人们审视正确的选择，考虑正确的选择，然后拒绝正确的选择的故事。
So coincidentally, the week that we were making this show, there was this big vote in Britain.
巧合的是，在我们制作这个节目的那一周，英国举行了一次大规模投票。
And now people in Britain are fretting over the choices.
现在英国人正在为选择而烦恼。
Some of them are, anyway.
无论如何，其中一些是。
Tom, for example, is 23.
例如，汤姆 23 岁。
He voted to leave the European Union, and then woke up the next day to see Britain's currency plunge to the lowest level in 30 years.
他投票决定离开欧盟，第二天醒来，发现英国货币跌至 30 年来的最低水平。
The stock market crashed.
股市崩溃了。
The prime minister resigned-- because of his vote and people like him.
总理辞职了——因为他的选票和像他这样的人。
It was shocking.
太令人震惊了。
It was scary.
太可怕了。
And I think there was a lot of people that was scared as well.
我认为很多人也很害怕。
They were unsure that they'd done the right thing.
他们不确定自己是否做了正确的事情。
It's just jumping into the unknown, isn't it?
它只是跳进未知的世界，不是吗？
No one really knows what was going to happen.
没有人真正知道会发生什么。
People did predict that British stocks and currency would drop if they left the EU.
人们确实预测，如果英国离开欧盟，英国股市和货币将会下跌。
Tom says he didn't totally understand the pros and cons of Brexit.
汤姆说他并不完全了解英国脱欧的利弊。
So in the end, he just voted his feelings.
所以最后，他只是投了自己的感情一票。
I didn't really know what to vote for.
我真的不知道该投票什么。
But I just felt like, I kind of think it was a guess.
但我只是觉得，我有点认为这是一个猜测。
I'm kind of regretting it now.
我现在有点后悔了。
What do you do for work?
你做什么工作？
Tom I work in a bank.
汤姆 我在银行工作。
You do?
你做？
Tom Yeah.
汤姆 是的。
So the shares, you know, at work, they did drop.
所以，你知道，在工作中，股票确实下跌了。
Which brings us to Act 2, in which people in our country-- political experts, in fact-- second guess their own political judgments with the benefit of hindsight.
这就把我们带到了第二幕，在这一幕中，我们国家的人们——事实上是政治专家——事后诸葛亮，重新猜测自己的政治判断。
Anybody can get this stuff wrong.
任何人都可能弄错这些东西。
Act 2 of our show is called "Poll Dance".
我们节目的第二幕叫做“投票舞”。
So when Donald Trump won the Republican nomination, the media was surprised.
因此，当唐纳德·特朗普赢得共和党提名时，媒体感到惊讶。
Well, to be more precise, what happened over the course of a few months, there was this slow dawning realization, like, oh, this is really happening?
好吧，更准确地说，几个月来发生了什么事，人们慢慢意识到，哦，这真的发生了吗？
Oh, how did we not see this?
哦，我们怎么没看到这个？
But the funny thing is now, when you look back on the polling data, you can see, actually, the evidence was there, ready to be seen, that Trump was going to win.
但有趣的是，现在当你回顾民意调查数据时，你会发现，实际上，特朗普将获胜的证据就在那里，随时可见。
And it had been there for months.
它已经在那里好几个月了。
And most of the media whose job it is to read the polls and the politics correctly and predict what would happen, they just got it wrong.
大多数媒体的工作就是正确解读民意调查和政治并预测会发生什么，但他们只是错了。
Perhaps the most epic of these failures came with the website FiveThirtyEight, which is a journalistic outfit whose entire reason for existence is to predict outcomes, and not in the vague imprecise way that political pundits have always in the past, by interpreting insider gossip and reporting about the candidates.
也许这些失败中最史诗般的失败来自 FiveThirtyEight 网站，该网站是一个新闻机构，其存在的全部目的是预测结果，而不是像政治专家过去一直采用的模糊不精确的方式，通过解释内部八卦和报道候选人。
FiveThirtyEight is backed up by data.
FiveThirtyEight 有数据支持。
It's entirely about numbers and using statistical analysis.
这完全是关于数字和使用统计分析。
FiveThirtyEight called every single state correctly in the last presidential election.
FiveThirtyEight 在上次总统选举中正确地称呼了每个州。
They are just spectacular at political prediction, totally bungled it on this one.
他们在政治预测方面非常出色，但在这一点上却完全搞砸了。
Zoe Chace went to talk to them about how exactly they got it wrong.
佐伊·切斯 (Zoe Chace) 去跟他们讨论他们究竟是如何犯错的。
FiveThirtyEight is the first to say they screwed this up.
FiveThirtyEight 是第一个说他们搞砸了的人。
And at FiveThirtyEight, if you get something wrong, you go back into the data and you figure out why what happened happened, and why you got it wrong.
在 FiveThirtyEight，如果出现问题，您会返回数据并找出发生的事情的原因以及出错的原因。
And then explain that with more data.
然后用更多数据解释这一点。
I talked with one of their senior writers, Harry Enten.
我与他们的一位资深作家 Harry Enten 进行了交谈。
So let's talk about Trump.
那么我们来谈谈特朗普。
Harry Enten Donald Trump.
哈里·恩滕·唐纳德·特朗普。
Yeah, that guy.
是的，那个家伙。
So I want to ask you to read something to me.
所以我想请你读一些东西给我听。
And I'm not trying to torture you.
我并不是想折磨你。
I'm just trying to set the mood here, of what we're going to be covering.
我只是想为我们将要报道的内容营造气氛。
Basically, when Trump had just decided to enter the race, you wrote something.
基本上，当特朗普刚刚决定参加竞选时，你写了一些东西。
What did you write?
你写了什么？
Can you read it to me?
你能读给我听吗？
Are we talking about Why Donald Trump Isn't a Real Candidate in One Chart?
我们是在谈论为什么唐纳德·特朗普在一张图表中不是真正的候选人吗？
Is that the piece we're referring to.
这就是我们所指的那件作品吗？
Yeah, by Harry Enten.
是的，哈里·恩滕的作品。
Harry Enten By Harry Enten.
哈利·恩腾 作者：哈利·恩腾。
Ah, OK.
啊，好吧。
So "Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin, or playing in the NBA Finals, than winning the Republican nomination."
因此，“与赢得共和党提名相比，特朗普更有可能客串麦考利·卡尔金的另一部小鬼当家电影，或者参加 NBA 总决赛。”
He wrote that a year ago, just before Trump entered the race.
一年前，就在特朗普参加竞选之前，他写道。
When I first heard Harry talk, I assumed he was about 60 years old, because he says stuff like this--
当我第一次听到哈利说话时，我以为他大约 60 岁，因为他说了这样的话——
We'll get another primary, God willing, if I'm alive for that primary, in four years.
如果我能在四年后的初选中活着的话，如果上帝愿意的话，我们将会举行另一场初选。
And--
还有——
In fact, he's a 28-year-old stats nerd.
事实上，他是一个 28 岁的统计迷。
He describes his job like this--
他这样描述自己的工作——
I'm looking at a lot of different data.
我正在查看很多不同的数据。
I've researched a lot of past years.
过去几年我研究了很多。
I've downloaded data.
我已经下载了数据。
I've looked into files.
我查过文件。
I've built my own data.
我已经建立了自己的数据。
Because sometimes the original data is in such a messy case, whereby, I have to piece together data.
因为有时候原始数据很乱，所以我必须把数据拼凑起来。
And at the end of every year he does a piece about what he got wrong.
每年年底，他都会写一篇文章来讨论他犯的错误。
In 2015, it was Trump.
2015年，是特朗普。
And let me say, you do a story on what you got wrong if you get most things right.
让我说，如果你做对了大部分事情，你就会写一个关于你做错的故事。
Harry's usually very on point.
哈利通常说得都很中肯。
So what did he miss?
那么他错过了什么？
It's really as simple as this-- if all I was looking at was the horse race polling numbers, if all I was looking at were the polls, if I had trusted the polls, if I had trusted that people, when they said they were going to vote for Donald Trump, would vote for Donald Trump, then I would have said that Donald Trump was going to be the Republican nominee, and probably as early as August of 2015.
事情就这么简单——如果我只看赛马民调数据，如果我只看民意调查，如果我相信民意调查，如果我相信人们在说要投票给唐纳德·特朗普时就会投票给唐纳德·特朗普，那么我就会说唐纳德·特朗普将成为共和党候选人，而且可能最早在 2015 年 8 月。
And why didn't you?
你为什么不呢？
Harry Enten The reason we didn't look at those polls was because Trump's lead was A, not necessarily all that big.
Harry Enten 我们没有查看这些民意调查的原因是因为特朗普的领先优势是 A，但不一定那么大。
But B, in the past we had seen candidates who lead in the early polls and then did not become nominees.
但是B，过去我们看到过一些候选人在早期民意调查中领先，但后来却没有成为提名人。
And they were pretty clear.
他们非常清楚。
I mean, just go back to four years ago.
我的意思是，回到四年前。
Michele Bachmann was leading in Iowa in the early polls.
米歇尔·巴赫曼（Michele Bachmann）在早期民意调查中在爱荷华州领先。
Herman Cain was leading in the early polls.
赫尔曼·凯恩在早期民意调查中处于领先地位。
Newt Gingrich was leading in the early polls, Rick Perry.
纽特·金里奇在早期民意调查中领先于里克·佩里。
And they didn't go on to win nominations.
他们没有继续赢得提名。
You go back to '08, Rudy Giuliani led in the national primary polls, and his entire bid fell apart.
回到 08 年，鲁迪·朱利安尼 (Rudy Giuliani) 在全国初选中领先，但他的整个竞选失败了。
No respectable analyst takes the horse race polls too seriously.
没有一位受人尊敬的分析师会太认真地对待赛马民意调查。
One minute you're up, the next you're down.
前一分钟你还站起来，下一分钟你就倒下了。
No context, no long-term meaning.
没有上下文，就没有长期意义。
Harry ignored them.
哈利无视他们。
Instead, he wanted to look at something that has a history of being right, not a history of being inflated by the media coverage of the moment.
相反，他想关注历史上正确的事物，而不是被当前媒体报道夸大的历史。
The data he focused on the morning Trump announced his bid was what he'd seen be a good predictor before-- favorability.
特朗普宣布参选那天早上他关注的数据是他之前认为的一个很好的预测指标——好感度。
Do people like this candidate?
人们喜欢这位候选人吗？
It's just how people answer this question.
人们就是这样回答这个问题的。
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of businessman, Donald Trump?
您对商人唐纳德·特朗普有好感还是坏感？
And the question is usually is as simple as that.
问题通常就是这么简单。
And what we've found in the past was that that type of question, although it couldn't tell you who would necessarily win a nomination, it would tell you who probably wouldn't win a nomination.
我们过去发现，这类问题虽然不能告诉你谁一定会赢得提名，但它会告诉你谁可能不会赢得提名。
And essentially, what I did was I threw together a chart in which I looked at all these presidential candidates who had run since 1980, and said, OK, how popular were they?
本质上，我所做的就是整理一张图表，在其中查看自 1980 年以来参加竞选的所有总统候选人，然后说，好吧，他们有多受欢迎？
And I essentially looked at that data.
我基本上查看了这些数据。
And I said, wow, Donald Trump is really unpopular.
我说，哇，唐纳德·特朗普真的不受欢迎。
He's a lot more unpopular than previous candidates who have won the nomination.
他比之前获得提名的候选人更不受欢迎。
And pretty much, a lot more unpopular than candidates who even run for major party nominations.
而且几乎比那些竞选主要政党提名的候选人更不受欢迎。
I mean, in reality, no one was even anywhere close to being as disliked as Donald Trump and went on to win a nomination.
我的意思是，实际上，没有人像唐纳德·特朗普那样不受欢迎，但却最终赢得了提名。
But what Harry couldn't see was what was about to happen next in this race.
但哈利看不到的是这场比赛接下来会发生什么。
The day Trump announced his candidacy, June 16th of last year, Trump gave a speech, the highlight of which was this--
去年6月16日，特朗普宣布参选当天，特朗普发表演讲，其中最精彩的部分就是——
I would build a great wall.
我会建造一座长城。
And nobody builds walls better than me, believe me.
相信我，没有人比我更会建造围墙。
I will build a great, great wall on our southern border.
我将在我们的南部边境建造一座伟大的长城。
And I will have Mexico pay for that wall.
我会让墨西哥支付修建隔离墙的费用。
Mark my words.
标记我的话。
And right after this speech, those favorability numbers turned upside down.
就在这次演讲之后，这些好感度数字发生了天翻地覆的变化。
Trump went from minus 35 to plus 17.
特朗普的支持率从负 35 升至正 17。
More Republican primary voters had a favorable view of Trump than an unfavorable one.
对特朗普持好感的共和党初选选民多于对特朗普持负面看法的人。
It was a really big turnaround.
这真是一个巨大的转变。
That switch, from negative 35 to positive 17 is just really unusual.
从负数 35 到正数 17 的转变确实很不寻常。
I don't think I've ever seen that before.
我想我以前从未见过这种情况。
And it was something that I couldn't have possibly have predicted.
这是我无法预料到的。
But I wish that when I saw that, I might have said, hmm, maybe these numbers are more malleable than we thought on Trump.
但我希望当我看到这一点时，我可能会说，嗯，也许这些数字比我们想象的特朗普更具可塑性。
Maybe we have to be a little more cautious.
也许我们必须更加谨慎一点。
Harry thinks that of everything Trump said that day, it was probably the wall that pushed his numbers the most.
哈里认为，在特朗普那天所说的一切中，对他的支持率影响最大的可能是那堵墙。
Because other pollings showed that of the voters who said immigration was their number one issue, Trump was far and away their favorite guy.
因为其他民意调查显示，在认为移民是首要问题的选民中，特朗普无疑是他们最喜欢的人。
He was more trusted on the issue of immigration than any of the other candidates were.
他在移民问题上比其他任何候选人都更受信任。
So to me, it was very clear, looking at the polling, that the more that the discussion focused on immigration, the more Donald Trump benefited from it.
所以对我来说，从民意调查来看，很明显，讨论越集中于移民，唐纳德·特朗普从中受益就越多。
So that data was out there.
所以这些数据就在那里。
But still, Harry ignored it.
但哈利仍然忽略了它。
He didn't see the truth.
他没有看到真相。
He still thought that Trump couldn't win.
他仍然认为特朗普不可能获胜。
Here's Harry back in October, 2015, on the FiveThirtyEight Elections Podcast, which is a great podcast, by the way.
这是 Harry 于 2015 年 10 月在 FiveThirtyEight Elections Podcast 上的报道，顺便说一句，这是一个很棒的播客。
Trump is just somebody who is a show.
特朗普只是一个作秀的人。
It's a show.
这是一场表演。
People are interested in a show.
人们对表演感兴趣。
Politics as reality TV.
政治作为真人秀。
When it gets down to actual voting, we've seen over and over again, shows do well early.
当谈到实际投票时，我们一次又一次地看到，节目很早就表现良好。
But then actual politicians tend to do well late.
但真正的政客往往做得很晚。
A few weeks ago, when Harry went back to dissect what he got wrong, he found something else, something important.
几周前，当哈利回去仔细分析自己的错误时，他发现了一些其他的东西，一些重要的东西。
In fact, the biggest thing that he'd missed the first time.
事实上，这是他第一次错过的最重要的事情。
It was in those favorability numbers.
这是在那些好感度数字中。
If you look deeper into those numbers, there was one very significant group of voters.
如果你更深入地研究这些数字，就会发现有一个非常重要的选民群体。
These were the people who told pollsters their view of Trump was not just favorable, it was strongly favorable.
这些人告诉民调机构，他们对特朗普的看法不仅是有利的，而且是非常有利的。
These are the diehards.
这些都是顽固分子。
They will not change their minds.
他们不会改变主意。
Think of this group as the Deadheads who actually go on tour with the band.
可以将这个团体视为实际与乐队一起巡演的“死头”。
Trump had this core group of strongly favorables that he could rely on in every primary.
特朗普拥有这一核心群体，他在每次初选中都可以依靠，得到了强烈支持。
It was solid.
它很坚固。
It was a superpower that no one else in the field had.
这是业内其他人所没有的超能力。
Trump's strongly favorable rating was 30% in that ABC News Washington Post poll by early July.
截至 7 月初，美国广播公司新闻华盛顿邮报的民意调查显示，特朗普的支持率高达 30%。
30%, which was basically where he was polling at for a lot of the primary season.
30%，这基本上是他在初选大部分时间里的民意调查结果。
You know, sometimes he was a little bit below 30, in the 20s.
你知道，有时他还不到30岁，20多岁。
Sometimes he was a little bit above 30, say about 35%.
有时他的年龄略高于30%，比如说35%左右。
And that is a very important ally to have when the field is 15, 16, however many candidates we ended up with.
当参赛人数达到 15、16 名时，无论我们最终有多少候选人，这都是一个非常重要的盟友。
Because that means that all you really need-- remember, what percentage of the vote did he win in the South Carolina primary?
因为这意味着你真正需要的就是——记住，他在南卡罗来纳州初选中赢得了多少选票？
He won only 32%.
他只赢了32%。
That's right around that 30%.
大约是 30% 左右。
Now, Harry saw the 30%.
现在，哈利看到了那30%。
But at the time, he completely misunderstood it.
但当时他完全误解了。
Instead of seeing it as the army that would win primary after primary, instead of seeing it as Trump's super power, he thought it was a problem for Trump.
他没有将其视为将在一次又一次初选中获胜的军队，也没有将其视为特朗普的超级大国，而是认为这对特朗普来说是一个问题。
He thought the 30% was a ceiling, the maximum that Trump could get.
他认为30%是一个上限，是特朗普可以获得的最高限额。
I remember at the time, FiveThirtyEight and lots of political writers were saying, this was Trump's Achilles heel.
我记得当时，FiveThirtyEight 和许多政治作家都在说，这是特朗普的致命弱点。
He would never be able to get more than 30% of Republicans to like him.
他永远无法让超过 30% 的共和党人喜欢他。
In retrospect, Harry says, it wasn't a ceiling.
哈利说，回想起来，这并不是天花板。
That 30% might have been more of a floor.
30% 可能只是一个下限。
That is, that there was this 30% of the public who really, really like Donald Trump, and would vote for him no matter what.
也就是说，有 30% 的公众非常非常喜欢唐纳德·特朗普，并且无论如何都会投票给他。
He could count on that 30% that was going to be there for him through thick and thin.
他可以指望这 30% 的力量会陪伴他度过难关。
Versus say, a candidate like Jeb Bush, who may have had a number of people at the beginning saying, well, I have a more favorable view of Jeb Bush than of Donald Trump.
与此相反，像杰布·布什这样的候选人，一开始可能会有很多人说，嗯，我对杰布·布什的看法比对唐纳德·特朗普更有利。
But those views aren't really strongly held.
但这些观点并没有得到真正的强烈支持。
They aren't something that I wouldn't be willing to give up the more information I learn about Jeb Bush.
随着我了解更多有关杰布·布什的信息，我也不愿意放弃这些东西。
Which is exactly what happened to Jeb Bush.
这正是发生在杰布·布什身上的事情。
The longer he was in, the more his numbers fell.
他呆的时间越长，他的人数下降得越多。
Even though he was the early party pick, the establishment favorite, the second heir to the throne.
尽管他是早期政党的人选、建制派的最爱、王位的第二继承人。
There's a theory in political science called The Party Decides.
政治学中有一个理论，叫做“政党决定”。
And most people thought the Republican elite would be the ones to pick the Republican candidate.
大多数人认为共和党精英将是挑选共和党候选人的人。
OK, so another thing that you thought was that the Republican party was in control.
好吧，你认为的另一件事是共和党处于控制地位。
How silly I was.
我当时是多么愚蠢啊。
Zoe Chace Well, it's hard to imagine now.
Zoe Chace 嗯，现在很难想象。
But I also remember thinking, oh, it's just not that complicated.
但我也记得我在想，哦，事情并没有那么复杂。
The Republican party is not going to allow this to happen.
共和党不会允许这种情况发生。
I just assumed that.
我只是这么假设。
And I think a lot of people did.
我想很多人都这么做了。
And I guess what I'm wondering, is well, why did you think that?
我想我想知道的是，你为什么这么想？
Why did I think it?
我为什么这么想？
But why did you think it?
但你为什么这么想呢？
Well, what we know in the past is that when one candidate is very well liked by the party elites or the party actors, they tend to win nominations.
那么，我们过去知道的是，当一位候选人非常受到党内精英或党内演员的喜爱时，他们往往会赢得提名。
And when the candidate is not liked, he says, it's the opposite.
他说，当候选人不受欢迎时，情况恰恰相反。
The party comes together to stop them.
党派齐心协力阻止他们。
I'll give you a perfect example.
我会给你一个完美的例子。
If you go back to the 2012 campaign, and Newt Gingrich starts leading Mitt Romney in a number of primary polls, or then Newt Gingrich wins the South Carolina primary.
如果你回到 2012 年的竞选活动，纽特·金里奇 (Newt Gingrich) 在多项初选中开始领先米特·罗姆尼 (Mitt Romney)，或者纽特·金里奇 (Newt Gingrich) 赢得南卡罗来纳州初选。
What you see are a whole bunch of Newt Gingrich's ex-colleagues coming out and saying, he was awful for us.
你看到的是纽特·金里奇的一大群前同事站出来说，他对我们来说太糟糕了。
He was terrible.
他太可怕了。
He led us to disaster.
他把我们引向了灾难。
People like Dick Armey, for instance, said that.
例如，像迪克·阿米这样的人就说过这样的话。
People like Bob Dole said that.
像鲍勃·多尔这样的人都这么说过。
Just to show you how different things are this year, the party elite freaked out about Donald Trump.
只是为了向您展示今年的情况有多么不同，党内精英对唐纳德·特朗普感到害怕。
But that didn't stop him.
但这并没有阻止他。
And now, not only has Bob Dole endorsed Trump, but he's advocating for Newt to be Trump's VP, which might mean that Bob Dole actually hates Trump.
而现在，鲍勃·多尔不仅支持特朗普，还主张让纽特担任特朗普的副总统，这可能意味着鲍勃·多尔实际上讨厌特朗普。
The whole purpose of the work that's done by people like Harry-- data journalism-- is to essentially draw conclusions that are free of assumptions.
像哈利这样的人所做的工作——数据新闻——的全部目的就是从本质上得出不带任何假设的结论。
There's this one bias I found though, even in the unflappable Harry Enten.
不过，我发现了这种偏见，即使是镇定自若的哈里·恩顿（Harry Enten）也是如此。
FiveThirtyEight has an allergy to media hype.
FiveThirtyEight 对媒体炒作过敏。
They have this aversion to frothy, splashy coverage of a person or an event.
他们厌恶对一个人或一件事进行泡沫化、花哨的报道。
The bias that we have is towards our priors, to use a Bayesian term, is towards the status quo.
我们的偏见是对我们的先验，用贝叶斯术语来说，是对现状的偏见。
Right.
正确的。
Just meaning it's hard for those guys to admit something new is going on that doesn't fit the model, particularly when it's dressed in hysterical cable-news clothing.
只是意味着这些人很难承认正在发生一些不适合该模型的新事物，尤其是当它穿着歇斯底里的有线电视新闻服装时。
And that, I believe, is why Harry and all journalists, basically, missed the real phenomenon lurking underneath the hype.
我相信，这就是为什么哈利和所有记者基本上都错过了潜伏在炒作之下的真实现象。
OK, I don't mean to ask you a total stoner question here at this point.
好吧，我现在并不是想问你一个彻底的问题。
OK, great.
好的，太好了。
Because that's kind of what this question is going to be like--
因为这就是这个问题的样子——
OK, here's my question.
好的，这是我的问题。
Since his statistical models are based on what happened in the past, how can you predict something that's never happened before, like Trump?
既然他的统计模型是基于过去发生的事情，那么你怎么能预测像特朗普这样以前从未发生过的事情呢？
Well, sometimes there are ahistorical candidates that you try and fit into history and maybe they shouldn't be.
好吧，有时你会尝试将一些非历史候选人纳入历史，但也许他们不应该这样做。
Oftentimes it's not a perfect fit.
很多时候它并不是完美的选择。
Usually though, the fit is good enough that it tells us what's going to occur.
但通常情况下，拟合度足够好，它可以告诉我们将要发生什么。
But apparently in this case, it was not.
但显然在这种情况下，事实并非如此。
And maybe we should have been a little more cautious and understood that Trump was a unique character.
也许我们应该更加谨慎一点，并理解特朗普是一个独特的人物。
And what had worked in the past wasn't going to work for him.
过去有效的方法对他来说不再有效。
Because simply put, he broke the mold.
因为简单地说，他打破了模式。
Is it frustrating?
令人沮丧吗？
Do you feel like, oh this thing that I relied on is not as reliable as I thought?
你是不是觉得，哦，我所依赖的这个东西，并没有我想象的那么可靠？
Well, of course it's frustrating.
嗯，这当然令人沮丧。
Nobody likes to be wrong.
没有人喜欢犯错。
I think this is one of the funniest things that people think.
我认为这是人们认为的最有趣的事情之一。
Oh, you were biased.
哦，你有偏见。
Oh you were this.
哦，原来你是这样的。
Oh, you know, you've been bought off or whatever.
哦，你知道，你被收买了或者其他什么。
You get that a lot from the Sanders folks.
你从桑德斯的人那里得到了很多这样的信息。
What a ridiculous concept.
多么可笑的概念啊。
You want to get things right!
你想要把事情做好！
That's what we're here for.
这就是我们来这里的目的。
You don't want to get wrong.
你不想出错。
You don't want people jumping into your Twitter feed or sending you e-mails, telling you you're an idiot.
您不希望人们跳入您的 Twitter 动态或向您发送电子邮件，告诉您您是个白痴。
No one wants that.
没有人想要这样。
When you look at the data, you obviously want that data to lead you to the right conclusion.
当您查看数据时，您显然希望该数据能够引导您得出正确的结论。
And it's frustrating when you feel like the data that normally had worked lets you down.
当你觉得通常有效的数据让你失望时，你会感到沮丧。
You want to be able to go to bed at night thinking hey, I'm not a complete fraud.
你希望晚上睡觉时能够想，嘿，我不是一个彻头彻尾的骗子。
The last thing Harry pointed out is this is a really small data set to draw conclusions from-- presidential primaries-- it just is.
哈利指出的最后一件事是，这是一个非常小的数据集，可以从中得出结论——总统初选——事实就是如此。
1972 is when primaries started actually choosing their party's nominee.
1972 年，初选开始真正选择本党的提名人。
There have only been 14 presidential primaries since then, without an incumbent president.
此后仅举行了 14 次总统初选，没有现任总统。
So really, in order to see Trump coming clearly, we need to see a lot more Trumps.
所以说真的，为了看到特朗普明显到来，我们需要看到更多的特朗普。
We need a Trump precedent.
我们需要特朗普的先例。
Precedent, I said.
有先例，我说。
Zoe Chace, she's one of the producers of our program.
佐伊·查斯（Zoe Chace），她是我们节目的制作人之一。
She takes no position on whether Donald Trump should be president.
她对唐纳德·特朗普是否应该担任总统没有立场。
Act 3, post-it not.
第三幕，不带便利贴。
So we end our show today with this example of somebody knowingly choosing wrong.
因此，我们今天以这个有人故意做出错误选择的例子来结束我们的节目。
In this case, choosing wrong for his own amusement.
在这种情况下，为了自己的娱乐而选择了错误。
Comedian Kurt Braunohler tells the story.
喜剧演员库尔特·布劳诺勒讲述了这个故事。
I've been writing all of my stand up on these giant poster-sized post-it notes.
我一直在这些巨大的海报大小的便利贴上写下我所有的站立演讲。
They're, like, big.
它们很大。
And so when you come into the first room of my apartment, it is literally covered in my writing.
因此，当你走进我公寓的第一个房间时，它实际上被我的文字所覆盖。
And my friend, Albertina, came over the other day.
我的朋友阿尔贝蒂娜前几天也过来了。
And she was, like, you can't bring a woman back here because you look like the Unabomber.
她说，你不能把女人带回这里，因为你看起来像大学炸弹客。
And I was, like, these are all funny jokes.
我当时想，这些都是有趣的笑话。
And she said, it just says here, "Do bad decisions exist?" And I was, like, that's a funny joke.
她说，这里只是说，“是否存在错误的决定？”我当时想，这是一个有趣的笑话。
And she's, like, that's a [BLEEP] crazy-person thought.
她就像，这是一个[哔]疯狂的想法。
But this was her idea.
但这是她的主意。
She said, what you should do is you should write on your wall, "List of people I need to kill".
她说，你应该做的是在墙上写下“我需要杀死的人名单”。
And then have, like, eight names with the first one crossed off.
然后有八个名字，第一个被划掉。
I was, like, that is funny.
我当时觉得，这很有趣。
So I did that.
所以我就这么做了。
And then I thought it would be even funnier if the last name just said Random.
然后我想如果姓氏只是说随机的话会更有趣。
So then flash forward, like, three months.
然后快进，比如三个月。
And I have finally convinced a young lady to come back to my apartment with me.
我终于说服了一位年轻女士和我一起回到我的公寓。
And as I'm putting the key in the door, I remember that I have a list of people I need to kill on my wall that needs some explaining.
当我把钥匙插进门时，我记得墙上有一张我需要杀死的人的名单，需要一些解释。
The door opened.
门开了。
She sees it.
她看到了。
She freezes.
她僵住了。
I kind of go into repair mode.
我有点进入修复模式。
I'm like, I'm a comedian.
我想，我是一个喜剧演员。
This is a joke.
这是一个笑话。
And I calm her down.
我让她平静下来。
But then I just can't help myself.
但后来我就是控制不住自己。
And I slowly cross off Random.
我慢慢地划掉了“随机”。
Kurt Braunohler, he's a stand-up comedian and recording his first one-hour special for Comedy Central this September.
库尔特·布劳诺勒 (Kurt Braunohler) 是一位单口喜剧演员，今年九月他将在喜剧中心录制他的第一部一小时特别节目。
That clip was courtesy of Comedy Central.
该剪辑由喜剧中心提供。
Well, our program was produced today by Dana Chivvis.
嗯，我们今天的节目是由 Dana Chivvis 制作的。
Our production staff, Zoe Chace, Sean Cole, Neil Drumming, Karen Duffin, Stephanie Foo, Chana Joffe-Walt, Miki Meek, Jonathan Menjivar, Robin Semien, Lyra Smith, Christopher Swetala, Matt Tierney and Nancy Updike.
我们的制作人员包括 Zoe Chace、Sean Cole、Neil Drumming、Karen Duffin、Stephanie Foo、Chana Joffe-Walt、Miki Meek、Jonathan Menjivar、Robin Semien、Lyra Smith、Christopher Swetala、Matt Tierney 和 Nancy Updike。
Our editor is Joel Lovell.
我们的编辑是乔尔·洛弗尔。
Editorial help from Julie Snyder and Elna Baker.
朱莉·斯奈德和埃尔娜·贝克的编辑帮助。
Music help from Damien Gray, from Rob Gettis.
达米安·格雷 (Damien Gray) 和罗布·盖蒂斯 (Rob Gettis) 提供音乐帮助。
[ACKNOWLEDGMENTS].
[致谢]。
This American Life is delivered to public radio stations by PRX, the Public Radio Exchange.
《美国生活》由公共广播电台 PRX 向公共广播电台播出。
Thanks, as always, to our program's co-founder, Mr. Torey Malatia.
一如既往地感谢我们项目的联合创始人 Torey Malatia 先生。
His reaction to the Brexit vote?
他对英国脱欧公投有何反应？
No surprise, same as usual.
没什么奇怪的，和平常一样。
I'm breaking out the weed.
我正在拔除杂草。
Ira Glass I'm Ira Glass.
艾拉·格拉斯 我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Back next week, with more stories of This American Life.
下周将带来更多《美国生活》的故事。
This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.
《This American Life》与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。