495: Hot In My Backyard - This American Life
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00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #495 | May 17, 2013 495: Hot In My Backyard Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.
00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 495 集 | 2013 年 5 月 17 日 495：我家后院的热门 注：《This American Life》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。
If you are able, we strongly encourage you to listen to the audio, which includes emotion and emphasis that's not on the page.
如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。
Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.
文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。
Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.
请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。
Prologue Ira Glass Well, now it almost feels like a distant memory.
序言 艾拉·格拉斯 好吧，现在感觉它几乎像是一个遥远的记忆。
But there was a moment this past fall when Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast during the hottest year on record with a drought that covered two-thirds of the country, and wildfires, and floods.
但去年秋天的某个时刻，飓风桑迪在有记录以来最热的一年中袭击了东海岸，干旱覆盖了该国三分之二的地区，并伴有野火和洪水。
Lots of people seemed to be saying, all right, global warming.
很多人似乎都在说，好吧，全球变暖。
This is it, right?
就是这个，对吧？
Not far away, at the polar ice caps, but right here at home.
不远，在极地冰盖上，但就在家里。
It's finally shown up.
终于显露出来了
Simply put, when you look at Hurricane Sandy, do you see climate change, man-made climate change--
简而言之，当你看到桑迪飓风时，你是否看到了气候变化，人为的气候变化——
On TV, guys like Chris Matthews were asking the question, while over at CBS This Morning , a scientist named Michio Kaku was saying, sure, he once doubted that global warming was real.
在电视上，像克里斯·马修斯这样的人在问这个问题，而在哥伦比亚广播公司的《今早》节目中，一位名叫加来道雄的科学家说，当然，他曾经怀疑全球变暖的真实性。
But then you look at the indicators, the fact that all the glaciers are receding.
但如果你看看指标，就会发现所有冰川都在消退。
We have 100-year storms that are now the, quote, "new norm." We could be seeing a new way of life.
我们有 100 年一遇的风暴，现在被称为“新常态”。我们可能会看到一种新的生活方式。
And of course, it's been amazing to see, since then, public opinion went through a massive turn.
当然，令人惊奇的是，从那时起，公众舆论经历了巨大的转变。
Broad, comprehensive legislation was passed to deal with climate change.
通过了广泛、全面的立法来应对气候变化。
Oh, right.
哦，对了。
That didn't happen.
那没有发生。
Because the conversation about climate change is stuck.
因为有关气候变化的讨论陷入僵局。
It's stuck.
它被卡住了。
It's stuck in the same utterly tiresome place that it has been stuck for years.
它被困在同一个令人厌烦的地方，它已经被困了很多年了。
There are the people who believe that global warming is happening, and there are the people who don't believe that, going back and forth with the same retread arguments over and over.
有些人相信全球变暖正在发生，有些人不相信这一点，一遍又一遍地重复同样的论点。
According to a recent Gallup poll, just over half the country thinks that climate change is real and is man-made-- which, despite the crazy weather last year, is more or less exactly where it's been for most of the last decade, give or take a couple percentage points.
根据盖洛普最近的一项民意调查，超过一半的人认为气候变化是真实存在的，并且是人为的——尽管去年天气恶劣，但这一比例与过去十年大部分时间的情况大致相同，相差几个百分点。
And today on our program, after a year that seemed like a dramatic preview of what climate scientists are predicting for all of our futures, we ask, why in the world is the conversation so stuck?
今天，在我们的节目中，经过一年的时间，我们对气候科学家对我们所有人的未来的预测进行了戏剧性的预测，我们问，到底为什么这个话题如此停滞不前？
That's going to be the first half of our show.
这将是我们节目的前半部分。
And then in the second half of the show, we have found some places where it feels like battle lines are, in fact, shifting a little bit.
然后在节目的后半部分，我们发现一些地方感觉战线实际上发生了一些变化。
We've found completely fascinating efforts by people who are consciously trying to lift us out of the mire and muck that we have been caught in, to end the standoff, to reinvent the exhausting, stupid climate change debate.
我们发现，人们做出了非常令人着迷的努力，他们有意识地试图将我们从陷入的泥沼中解救出来，结束僵局，重新发明令人筋疲力尽、愚蠢的气候变化辩论。
In short, we have tried to assemble an hour on climate change that is not stuff that we have all heard before.
简而言之，我们试图用一个小时的时间来讨论气候变化，这不是我们以前都听说过的。
From WBEZ Chicago, it's This American Life, distributed by Public Radio International.
这是来自芝加哥 WBEZ 的《This American Life》，由国际公共广播电台发行。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Please stay with us.
请留在我们身边。
Act One, "The CO2 in CO." You know, if you're looking for a place where people have been seeing extreme weather in their own backyards lately, Colorado is about as good as you're going to get.
第一幕，“CO 中的 CO2”。你知道，如果你正在寻找一个人们最近在自家后院看到极端天气的地方，那么科罗拉多州就是你能找到的最好的地方。
And we begin our program today with the story of a guy who is supposed to explain the climate there to the people who are most affected by the weather.
我们今天的节目以一个人的故事开始，他应该向受天气影响最严重的人们解释那里的气候。
That guy is the state climatologist, Nolan Doesken, and the story is about what a difficult job he had last year, for reasons that reporter Julia Kumari Drapkin will explain.
那个人就是州气候学家诺兰·杜斯肯（NolanDoesken），这个故事讲述的是他去年的工作是多么困难，记者朱莉娅·库玛丽·德拉普金（Julia Kumari Drapkin）将解释其原因。
Before I get to Nolan, a word about just how weird the weather was here last year.
在讲诺兰之前，先说一下去年这里的天气有多么奇怪。
I moved to the state in April, and at first, the stuff I was hearing about was kind of subtle.
我四月份搬到了该州，起初，我听到的事情有点微妙。
One woman started noticing squirrel roadkill near her house, for example.
例如，一名妇女开始注意到她家附近有松鼠被路杀。
Three roadkill squirrels.
三只被路杀的松鼠。
And I can't say that I've ever remember seeing a squirrel on our--
我不能说我记得在我们的——
The short winter meant squirrels were reproducing in greater numbers, spreading out to places they had never been before.
短暂的冬季意味着松鼠会大量繁殖，并扩展到它们以前从未去过的地方。
Flowers bloomed weeks earlier than normal, way before farmers' markets even opened for the season.
鲜花盛开的时间比平时早了几周，甚至比农贸市场开放时间还要早。
So people who sell flowers for a living had no place to sell.
于是以卖花为生的人无处可卖。
That's because spring came early, throwing the entire agricultural growing season and pollination all out of whack.
这是因为春天来得早，导致整个农业生长季节和授粉都失控。
March, usually Colorado's snowiest month, had brought the lowest recorded snowfall in history.
三月，通常是科罗拉多州降雪最多的月份，却带来了历史上最低的降雪量。
And in Colorado, snow equals water supply.
在科罗拉多州，雪等于供水。
By the end of May, things were starting to feel dire.
到了五月底，事情开始变得可怕了。
[FRUSTRATED SCREAM] Julia Kumari Drapkin That's rancher Marla Bear Bishop freaking out when she sees her stunted hayfield.
[沮丧的尖叫] Julia Kumari Drapkin 牧场主 Marla Bear Bishop 在看到她发育不良的干草场时吓坏了。
I know what I-- I know what looks right to me.
我知道什么对我来说是正确的。
It's not right.
这是不对的。
Nothing about this is right.
这件事没有什么是正确的。
Her hayfield-- it's alfalfa-- is water-starved.
她的草地——是苜蓿——缺水。
The plants should be six inches taller than they are right now.
这些植物应该比现在高六英寸。
If they don't grow, she's got no feed for her animals.
如果它们不生长，她就没有动物的饲料。
Her neighbor Pat Polson had 80 head of cattle, but only enough hay for 20.
她的邻居帕特·波尔森 (Pat Polson) 有 80 头牛，但干草只够 20 头牛吃。
Meanwhile, bears were killing off livestock like crazy because they didn't have enough to eat in the woods.
与此同时，熊疯狂地捕杀牲畜，因为它们在树林里没有足够的食物。
Because there weren't enough acorns.
因为没有足够的橡子。
Because the oak leaves froze.
因为橡树叶结冰了。
Because they came out too early.
因为他们出来的太早了。
Colorado Climate Center.
科罗拉多气候中心。
Julia Kumari Drapkin Hi, is this Nolan?
朱莉娅·库玛丽·德拉普金 嗨，这是诺兰吗？
Oh, that's OK.
哦，没关系。
So at the end of May, I called the guy this story's about, the state climatologist, Noland Doesken, to talk to him about all the weirdness.
因此，五月底，我给这个故事的主人公、州气候学家诺兰·杜斯肯 (NolandDoesken) 打电话，与他谈论所有的怪事。
I got him at lunchtime.
我在午餐时间找到了他。
I asked him, what are you telling people?
我问他，你跟别人说什么？
Are you telling them the extreme weather they're seeing is climate change?
你是在告诉他们他们所看到的极端天气是气候变化吗？
And he said, no. Nolan believes in climate change, but he said there's no way to tell if any particular hot spell or drought happened because of it.
他说，不。诺兰相信气候变化，但他说没有办法判断是否因此而发生了任何特定的炎热天气或干旱。
And for almost every bizarre weather scenario happening now, he can find a year just like it.
对于现在发生的几乎所有奇怪的天气情况，他都能找到类似的一年。
Take 1910.
以1910年为例。
Warm spring, barely snowed in March.
春暖花开，三月几乎没有下雪。
So about the time you think, wow, this is unprecedented.
所以当你想到的时候，哇，这是前所未有的。
We've never had anything like this-- lo and behold, we have had something sort of like it, and it was fully 100 years ago.
我们从来没有经历过这样的事情——你瞧，我们曾经经历过类似的事情，而且那已经是 100 年前的事了。
So what it does point out is that our climate is variable.
所以它确实指出了我们的气候是多变的。
Variability wins.
可变性获胜。
Variability.
可变性。
That's the word climate scientists use when they mean it can get hotter, it can get colder-- it's normal.
这是气候科学家使用的词，他们的意思是天气可能会变得更热，也可能会变得更冷——这是正常的。
No reason to panic.
没有理由恐慌。
Nolan said this in May.
诺兰在五月份说过这句话。
By June, panic started to seem like a reasonable option.
到了六月，恐慌似乎开始成为一个合理的选择。
Temperature records kept breaking, not just in Colorado, but nationwide.
不仅在科罗拉多州，而且在全国范围内，气温记录不断被打破。
Mosquitoes descended.
蚊子降临。
The worst West Nile virus outbreak in the state hit the county where I live.
该州最严重的西尼罗河病毒爆发袭击了我居住的县。
The land turned brown.
土地变成了棕色。
Everywhere you stepped felt crunchy, like the whole state was one big tinderbox.
你所走到的每一个地方都感觉脆脆的，就像整个州都是一个大火药桶。
Everybody was praying for rain, but the first storms that came were practically rainless, just flashes of lightning like giant matches hovering over people's houses.
每个人都祈求下雨，但第一场暴风雨几乎没有下雨，只有闪电般的巨大火柴盘旋在人们的房屋上空。
It was terrifying.
太可怕了。
And then the fires came and stayed.
然后大火就来了并且一直持续着。
2012 was the most destructive wildfire season in Colorado history, burning over 600 houses.
2012 年是科罗拉多州历史上最具破坏性的野火季节，烧毁了 600 多所房屋。
Hugh Carson was fighting the fires from the air over Fort Collins, and later, in Idaho.
休·卡森在柯林斯堡上空以及后来在爱达荷州的空中救火。
He'd been doing this work for decades.
他从事这项工作已经几十年了。
But last summer's fires were different.
但去年夏天的火灾有所不同。
The first time I heard it described, I think, was about the 16th of June.
我想，我第一次听到这种描述是在 6 月 16 日左右。
And one of my air attacks down at Jefferson County Airport said, Carson, you would not believe what we're seeing out there.
我对杰佛逊县机场的一次空袭说，卡森，你不会相信我们在那里看到的。
I said, what?
我说，什么？
He says, I saw a sheet of flame approximately half a mile long and 1,000 feet high, and all it was doing was sitting there and shimmering at me.
他说，我看到一片大约半英里长、1000 英尺高的火焰，它只是坐在那儿向我闪烁。
And he said it in exactly that tone.
他就是用那种语气说的。
It was sitting there shimmering at me.
它坐在那里，对着我闪闪发光。
And I queried other air attacks, and they said, yeah, we're seeing stuff out there like that weird stuff, that we've never seen before in the last 25 years, since this burn-down in the West started happening.
我询问了其他空袭，他们说，是的，我们看到了类似奇怪的东西，自从西方发生这种烧毁事件以来，我们在过去 25 年里从未见过。
Nobody could escape what was going on, including the state climatologist, Nolan Doesken.
没有人能够逃避正在发生的事情，包括国家气候学家诺兰·多斯肯。
Every day the phone was ringing in his office, people asking him, is this climate change?
每天他办公室的电话都会响起，人们问他，这是气候变化吗？
Is this what the future is going to look like?
这就是未来的样子吗？
And he gave them the answer he always has-- variability.
他给了他们他一贯的答案——可变性。
But the summer changed him.
但夏天改变了他。
Just a week after we had first spoken, Nolan left for a vacation with his wife to Michigan, and that's when the biggest of the wildfires broke out, a few miles from his house in Fort Collins.
就在我们第一次交谈一周后，诺兰与妻子前往密歇根州度假，就在那时，最大的野火爆发了，距离他在柯林斯堡的家几英里。
And then we drove home into the heat and into the smoke.
然后我们在炎热和烟雾中开车回家。
400 yards from our office, we went past a National Guard checkpoint every day.
在距离我们办公室 400 码的地方，我们每天都会经过国民警卫队检查站。
Helicopters flying, smoke plumes.
直升机飞过，烟雾缭绕。
Having close friends whose homes burned or who were evacuated for many weeks, it's just-- it hits you so hard.
有亲密的朋友的房屋被烧毁或被疏散好几个星期，这对你打击很大。
Most upsetting was what happened to his neighbor's daughter from the nearby dairy farm.
最令人不安的是附近奶牛场的邻居女儿的遭遇。
The fires had died down some, but the river near their farm still had tons of ash in it.
火已经熄灭了一些，但他们农场附近的河里仍然有大量的火山灰。
Probably because of the pump clogging, probably because of the ash from the wildfire in the irrigation system, the young girl was electrocuted.
可能是因为水泵堵塞，也可能是因为灌溉系统中野火的灰烬，小女孩触电身亡。
That was about as painful as anything about the whole summer season, just knowing their precious daughter was lost to a situation beyond their control.
这与整个夏季的任何事情一样痛苦，只是知道他们的宝贝女儿因他们无法控制的情况而失去了。
His neighbor's death was one of the things that made him start to think differently about the data.
他邻居的死是让他开始对数据产生不同看法的原因之一。
The important question wasn't, is this particular drought caused by climate change?
重要的问题不是，这次特殊的干旱是由气候变化引起的吗？
Whether it was or wasn't didn't matter.
是或不是并不重要。
Because either way, he realized, if the climate models are right, he was seeing the future.
因为无论哪种方式，他意识到，如果气候模型是正确的，他就看到了未来。
Seeing were Colorado was headed-- droughts and dead crops and fires-- and it was horrible.
看到科罗拉多州即将面临干旱、农作物枯死和火灾，这真是太可怕了。
You just sort of used to be able to say, ah, that's just a computer model.
你过去常常会说，啊，那只是一个计算机模型。
And then you get to see, and this is what those numeric outputs from that model feel like.
然后你就会看到，这就是该模型的数字输出的感觉。
Say, ooh, I don't want to have to live through year after year after year of this.
说，哦，我不想年复一年地经历这样的事情。
This will be a different place if that is what our climate will be like.
如果我们的气候就是这样的话，那将会是一个不同的地方。
Nolan's the person Colorado farmers and ranchers turn to, the one they trust to tell them what the weather has done, what it is doing, and what it will do.
诺兰是科罗拉多州农民和牧场主求助的人，他们相信诺兰会告诉他们天气发生了什么、正在发生什么以及将会发生什么。
That's been his job for 36 years.
这就是他的工作 36 年。
Now that he was seeing cause for alarm, would he tell people that?
既然他看到了令人震惊的理由，他会告诉人们吗？
In reporting on climate change, I found that scientists don't always level with people that way.
在报道气候变化时，我发现科学家并不总是以这种方式与人们坦诚相待。
I've interviewed three different scientists who are already preparing for the worst.
我采访了三位不同的科学家，他们已经做好了最坏的打算。
They've bought second homes high above sea level.
他们在海拔较高的地方购买了第二套房子。
They'll confess stuff like this to me in private, but never to the public.
他们会私下向我承认这样的事情，但绝不会公开。
And sure, it's not scientific information, but it's telling.
当然，这不是科学信息，但它很能说明问题。
Saying emphatically, this is what the climate models predict for your land and your livelihood-- that's information people would probably take seriously as they decide their own long-term plans.
强调一下，这就是气候模型对你的土地和生计的预测——人们在决定自己的长期计划时可能会认真对待这些信息。
So would Nolan start telling people, I believe 2012 is a sign of where Colorado is headed with climate change, and we're in trouble?
那么诺兰会开始告诉人们，我相信 2012 年是科罗拉多州气候变化的一个迹象，而我们遇到了麻烦吗？
In September, I asked him to come to Paonia, in Western Colorado, where I'd been reporting, to meet with a few of the people I'd met who'd had trouble last year.
九月，我请他来我一直在报道的科罗拉多州西部的帕奥尼亚，会见一些我去年遇到麻烦的人。
One of the sheep ranchers, Brian Farmer, invited us up to his place.
一位牧羊人布莱恩·法默邀请我们去他家。
Brian.
布莱恩.
Nolan Doesken Brian, I'm Nolan Doesken.
诺兰·杜斯肯·布莱恩，我是诺兰·杜斯肯。
Nice to meet you.
很高兴见到你。
Nolan Doesken Have we met before?
诺兰·德斯肯 我们以前见过吗？
Brian comes from a pretty conservative family, one of the first to settle here in 1890.
布莱恩来自一个相当保守的家庭，他是 1890 年第一批定居于此的家庭之一。
He's got one of the bigger operations in town-- 300 cows and up to 8,000 sheep.
他拥有镇上规模最大的牧场之一——饲养着 300 头牛和多达 8,000 只羊。
This year Brian had a terrible time finding pasture for them all.
今年，布莱恩为他们所有人寻找牧场经历了一段糟糕的时光。
Without irrigation water, Brian's ranch reverts to the desert it actually is.
没有了灌溉水，布莱恩的牧场就变成了沙漠。
Brian and Nolan begin talking about all this, speaking a dialect that I like to call Almanac.
布莱恩和诺兰开始谈论这一切，用一种我喜欢称之为年鉴的方言。
Anyone who's been here long enough can do this.
任何在这里呆了足够长的时间的人都可以做到这一点。
They rattle off the hot years, the wet years, the bumper crop years.
他们滔滔不绝地讲述着炎热的年份、潮湿的年份、丰收的年份。
And then it didn't dry up for another 17 to 20 years.
然后又持续了 17 到 20 年才干涸。
And then it dried up for another three years in a row.
然后又连续三年干涸。
And then the '80s and '90s were all really darn good years.
然后 80 年代和 90 年代都是非常美好的时光。
Pretty good.
不错。
I was-- Nolan Doesken Until the late '80s.
我是——诺兰·杜斯肯 (NolanDoesken) 直到 80 年代末。
I kept waiting for Nolan to lay it out for Brian, to tell Brian that climate change is either here or on the way, and that this year, 2012, is what it's going to be like in the near future.
我一直在等待诺兰向布莱恩阐述，告诉布莱恩气候变化要么已经到来，要么即将发生，而且今年，2012年，在不久的将来将会是什么样子。
But this is what Nolan said.
但这是诺兰说的。
The year that we just experienced that was way unusual to us now, they're saying may be the norm 30 to 40 years from now.
我们刚刚经历的那一年对现在的我们来说非常不寻常，他们说这可能会成为 30 到 40 年后的常态。
And I wrestle with that and say, well, I don't know.
我苦苦思索并说，好吧，我不知道。
"I don't know"?
“我不知道”？
Finally, I raised the subject with Brian.
最后，我向布莱恩提出了这个话题。
Do you believe in climate change at this stage of the game?
在游戏的这个阶段，你相信气候变化吗？
No, not enough to affect us.
不，还不足以影响我们。
And secondly, there's nothing we can do about it, or I can do about it myself, personally.
其次，我们对此无能为力，或者我个人也无能为力。
Here's what Nolan says when he hears that-- nothing.
诺兰听到这个消息后是这么说的——什么也没有。
Back in the car, Nolan shrugged.
回到车上，诺兰耸耸肩。
I'm not that surprised that he wasn't that aware or concerned about temperature changes.
对于他没有那么意识到或担心温度变化，我并不感到惊讶。
Because I have found that there's no-- you know, telling people to believe something different than what they do hardly ever has an impact.
因为我发现，告诉人们相信与他们所做的不同的事情几乎不会产生任何影响。
And if anything, it just is a reason for alienation.
如果说有什么不同的话，那就是疏远的一个原因。
For me to just to make a bold statement, that's not going to serve any good purpose.
对我来说，仅仅发表一个大胆的声明是没有任何好处的。
Which makes a lot of sense.
这很有意义。
The fact is the people most directly affected by climate change around the state are also the most likely not to believe it's real.
事实上，该州周围受气候变化最直接影响的人们也最有可能不相信这是真的。
And they say all the reasons you've probably heard.
他们说出了您可能听说过的所有原因。
It's a liberal conspiracy.
这是一个自由主义的阴谋。
Or God's in charge.
或者上帝负责。
Or the science is wrong, or rigged, or inconclusive.
或者科学是错误的，或者被操纵的，或者是不确定的。
Even the word "environmentalist" can trigger outrage, like when this rancher, Larry Moore, charged at me with his four-wheeler.
甚至“环保主义者”这个词也会引发愤怒，就像牧场主拉里·摩尔（Larry Moore）开着他的四轮车向我冲来时一样。
You know, I'm kind of pissed off.
你知道，我有点生气。
You didn't tell me who you were, who you represented.
你没有告诉我你是谁，你代表谁。
That you were one of these environmentalists that are giving us so much [BLEEP] out there.
你是这些环保主义者之一，为我们带来了如此多的[哔]声。
Wait, I'm sorry-- Larry Moore I oughta take that damned recorder and smash it to smithereens.
等等，我很抱歉——拉里·摩尔，我应该拿起那台该死的录音机，把它砸成碎片。
Wha-- oh-- oh, I'm just-- I'm reporting for KVNF.
哇——哦——哦，我只是——我在为 KVNF 报道。
But why are you so upset-- I'm sorry.
但你为什么这么难过——我很抱歉。
I didn't mean to--
我不是故意要--
Shut that thing off.
把那个东西关掉。
Julia Kumari Drapkin Oh, I'm s---
朱莉娅·库玛丽·德拉普金 哦，我是——
He felt bad about losing his cool.
他为失去冷静而感到难过。
Invited me up for cookies and coffee after.
之后邀请我去吃饼干和咖啡。
But you can understand why any message about climate change is the last thing a lot of farmers and ranchers want to hear.
但你可以理解为什么许多农民和牧场主最不想听到任何有关气候变化的信息。
They stand to lose so much if climate models come true.
如果气候模型成真，他们将损失惨重。
Water is simply worth more, in Colorado, servicing a condo than it is irrigating an alfalfa field.
在科罗拉多州，为公寓提供服务的水比灌溉苜蓿田的水更有价值。
If water's scarce, agriculture will shrink.
如果水资源匮乏，农业就会萎缩。
Water will be diverted to cities and suburbs, which are growing in the state.
水将被转移到该州不断发展的城市和郊区。
Nolan and I talked about this for a while in the car, back at Brian's ranch.
回到布莱恩的牧场后，诺兰和我在车里讨论了一会儿这个问题。
Finally, Nolan told me he was thinking about being more frank with his constituents.
最后，诺兰告诉我，他正在考虑对选民更加坦诚。
At the Colorado Farm Show in 2013, I will tell the farmers that I-- my level of concern, based on my personal experience with the hot summer, will change the way I communicate the problem.
在 2013 年科罗拉多农场展上，我将告诉农民，根据我个人在炎热夏季的经历，我的关注程度将改变我传达问题的方式。
So you're going to tell a group of farmers in 2013?
那么您打算在 2013 年告诉一群农民吗？
I didn't say that, but I might.
我没这么说，但我可能会这么说。
It all-- I don't script what comes out of my mouth.
这一切——我不会把从我嘴里说出来的话写下来。
I'll be there.
我会在那里。
When is it?
什么时候？
Nolan Doesken Late January, in Greeley, Colorado.
诺兰·杜斯肯 (NolanDoesken) 一月下旬，科罗拉多州格里利。
I'll be there.
我会在那里。
With my mic.
用我的麦克风。
Nolan Doesken With your mic.
诺兰·杜斯肯 用你的麦克风。
Every year at the end of January, Nolan delivers the weather report at the Colorado Farm Show.
每年一月底，诺兰都会在科罗拉多农场展上发布天气预报。
It's like the State of the Union address for farmers and ranchers.
这就像针对农民和牧场主的国情咨文演讲。
Hundreds of them come, some of them just to listen to him.
数百人前来，其中一些只是为了听他讲话。
Nolan has been giving this talk for 12 years, and in all those years, he's never once brought up climate change.
诺兰做这个演讲已经有 12 年了，在这些年里，他从来没有提到过气候变化。
Not once.
一次也没有。
But every time, the first or second question he gets asked in the Q & A is, what do you think about climate change?
但每次，他在问答中被问到的第一或第二个问题都是，你对气候变化有何看法？
And every time, there's been a local reporter in the front row with a notebook.
每次，前排都有一位拿着笔记本的当地记者。
And he would immediately begin taking notes the minute I started to speak.
我一开始讲话，他就会立即开始做笔记。
And I always found that a little bit intimidating.
我总是觉得这有点令人生畏。
And the audience, the vast majority, were climate change skeptics, and they sort of wanted me to embarrass myself in front of them and the newspaper reporter.
绝大多数观众都是气候变化怀疑论者，他们有点希望我在他们和报纸记者面前出丑。
Taking a stand can be dangerous.
表明立场可能很危险。
In recent years, climatologists in four states have lost their positions because of what they said publicly about climate change-- Oregon, Virginia, Delaware, Georgia.
近年来，俄勒冈州、弗吉尼亚州、特拉华州、佐治亚州四个州的气候学家因公开谈论气候变化而失去了职位。
Democratic governors got rid of climatologists who didn't embrace climate change, and a Republican fired two who did.
民主党州长解雇了不支持气候变化的气候学家，共和党则解雇了两名支持气候变化的气候学家。
We think there'll be a few more chairs delivered in a minute or two.
我们认为一两分钟后就会再送来几把椅子。
Nolan's talk is in a side room.
诺兰的演讲是在一间侧屋里进行的。
It's packed.
已经装满了。
They bring more chairs in, but it's still standing room only by the time he starts.
他们搬来了更多的椅子，但等他开始的时候，椅子还是有站立的空间。
There are about 200 people from Colorado, and also some from other drought-stricken states-- Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma.
大约有 200 人来自科罗拉多州，还有一些来自其他遭受干旱的州——怀俄明州、内布拉斯加州、俄克拉荷马州。
Nolan's talk is a PowerPoint.
诺兰的演讲是一个PowerPoint。
He starts with data from 1890.
他从 1890 年的数据开始。
Then we had the drought for years of the 1900s into the late 1920s.
然后我们经历了从 1900 年代到 1920 年代末的干旱。
The Dust Bowl, the '30s--
三十年代的沙尘暴——
And that was just the beginning.
而这仅仅是开始。
He showed 187 slides.
他展示了 187 张幻灯片。
187 slides.
187 张幻灯片。
30 minutes, 45 minutes, an hour-- it was so long, there was an intermission.
30分钟，45分钟，一个小时，太长了，中间还有中场休息。
There may be some donuts left.
可能还剩下一些甜甜圈。
There might be some coffee left.
可能还剩下一些咖啡。
Stretch.
拉紧。
After the break, he's still going full steam.
休息后，他仍然全力以赴。
Soon, we're an hour and 40 minutes in, and no mention of climate change.
很快，我们就进入了一个小时四十分钟，却没有提到气候变化。
20 more minutes pass.
又过了20分钟。
And then, right at the end.
然后，就在最后。
He shows a slide that says, "Do I have time for a little story?" That's all it says.
他展示了一张幻灯片，上面写着：“我有时间讲一个小故事吗？”这就是它所说的全部。
And that is a story of a climatologist grappling with the question that all of you wanted to ask me today, and some of you have asked me every year.
这是一个气候学家努力解决你们今天想问我的问题的故事，而且你们中的一些人每年都问我。
When I finish my talk, you'll end up saying, well, tell me about climate change.
当我结束演讲时，你最终会说，好吧，告诉我有关气候变化的事情。
What do you think?
你怎么认为？
Or some of you have told me exactly what you think.
或者你们中的一些人确切地告诉了我你们的想法。
[LAUGHTER] Julia Kumari Drapkin And here's where Nolan tells them.
[笑声] Julia Kumari Drapkin 这是诺兰告诉他们的地方。
Scientists are not 100% certain, but they are, he says, pretty darn confident that the globe is warming, and that's it's our fault.
他说，科学家们并不能百分百确定，但他们非常确信地球正在变暖，而这是我们的错。
2012 told me something that I hadn't been able to come to grips with that well until 2012 came along.
2012 年告诉我一些事情，直到 2012 年到来我才能够很好地理解。
The temperatures we experienced this year, which were pretty extreme, yeah, they happened before.
我们今年经历的气温相当极端，是的，以前也发生过。
1934, it happened before.
1934年，这样的事情曾经发生过。
So natural variations can cause it.
所以自然变化会导致它。
But if the computer models are anything close to right-- and I'm not a computer modeler.
但如果计算机模型接近正确的话——而且我不是计算机建模师。
You can't shoot at me.
你不能向我开枪。
But if those models are anywhere close to right, 2012 will be an average year in just a few decades.
但如果这些模型接近正确的话，2012 年将是短短几十年内的平均年份。
So that was it.
就是这样。
Kind of soft, but he said it.
虽然语气很温柔，但他还是说了。
And then he got nervous, changed the subject, toggled back a few slides, and started talking about flooding.
然后他变得紧张，改变了话题，切换回几张幻灯片，开始谈论洪水。
Flooding.
洪水。
Julia Kumari Drapkin And then it was over.
朱莉娅·库玛丽·德拉普金 然后一切就结束了。
[APPLAUSE] I wondered if people even got what he was saying.
[掌声]我想知道人们是否明白他在说什么。
So I asked around in the crowd afterwards.
于是我就在人群中四处打听。
I met Dave Sharman, who raises cattle.
我遇到了养牛的戴夫·沙曼。
What about that last story that he just told?
他刚才讲的最后一个故事呢？
The one where he talks about climate change.
他谈论气候变化的那一期。
On the flood parts, you mean?
你是说洪水部分？
Julia Kumari Drapkin Well, yeah, and his little story about climate change.
朱莉娅·库玛丽·德拉普金 嗯，是的，还有他关于气候变化的小故事。
You don't remember that part?
你不记得那部分了吗？
No. I sure don't.
不，我当然不知道。
I know he talked about something there, but I don't remember the specifics.
我知道他在那里谈到了一些事情，但我不记得具体内容了。
As for the newspaper reporter Nolan always worried about, from Greeley Tribune , he left before the end.
至于诺兰一直担心的报社记者，从《格里利论坛报》来看，他在结束前就离开了。
He had a basketball game to go to.
他要去参加一场篮球比赛。
So he missed his scoop.
所以他错过了他的独家新闻。
Nolan's big warning wasn't even on the record.
诺兰的重大警告甚至没有记录在案。
Yeah, this time around, I would say disappointment.
是的，这一次，我想说的是失望。
Because in the past, I dreaded the story being written about, Doesken speaking about climate change.
因为在过去，我害怕被写的故事，杜肯谈论气候变化。
And I don't dread that anymore.
我不再害怕这个了。
That's a change.
这是一个改变。
And when I said that, there was a lot of nodding of heads, more than ever.
当我这么说时，有很多人点头，比以往任何时候都多。
It was amazing to see.
看到这真是太神奇了。
Measured against the damages from the weather last year, billions of dollars of lost property in revenue nationwide, and measured against the massive changes climate models predict for the coming decades in Colorado, what the state's top climate official took was a tiny step.
与去年天气造成的损失、全国数十亿美元的收入损失以及气候模型预测的科罗拉多州未来几十年的巨大变化相比，该州最高气候官员所采取的只是一小步。
But at least it was a first step.
但至少这是第一步。
Nolan spent so many years being afraid, feeling like a conversation about all this was impossible.
诺兰多年来一直感到害怕，觉得谈论这一切是不可能的。
But 2012 made it possible.
但2012年让这一切成为可能。
And now he feels like it's OK.
现在他感觉一切都好了。
It's time to talk about it.
是时候谈谈它了。
Julia Kumari Drapkin.
朱莉娅·库玛丽·德拉普金。
Her climate reporting project at Colorado's KVNF is called iSeeChange.
她在科罗拉多州 KVNF 的气候报告项目称为 iSeeChange。
The website-- thealmanac.org.
网站——thealmanac.org。
Coming up, secret things that Republicans on Capitol Hill say to each other about climate change, but only when microphones are off.
接下来是国会山共和党人就气候变化相互谈论的秘密内容，但仅限于关闭麦克风的情况下。
That's in a minute, from Chicago Public Radio and Public Radio International, when our program continues.
稍后，芝加哥公共广播电台和国际公共广播电台将继续我们的节目。
It's This American Life .
这就是美国生活。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Today on our program, "Hot in My Backyard," our premise today is we have started to see in our daily lives around this country the kind of extreme weather that scientists say that we are in store for as the world heats up.
今天，在我们的节目《我的后院很热》中，我们今天的前提是，我们已经开始在这个国家的日常生活中看到科学家们所说的随着世界变暖而即将发生的极端天气。
I'm talking hurricanes, droughts, floods, some of the hottest years on record, one after another.
我说的是飓风、干旱、洪水，还有一些有记录以来最热的年份，一个接一个。
But the politics of climate change, the way that we talk about it in this country, has been stuck for years.
但气候变化的政治问题，以及我们在这个国家谈论气候变化的方式，多年来一直停滞不前。
Both Republicans and Democrats have been mired in their own ways of looking at the issue.
共和党人和民主党人都陷入了各自看待这个问题的方式之中。
In this half of today's program, we have a pair of stories-- one looking at somebody on the left, the other somebody on the right, who are trying to reinvent the politics on their side of the aisle.
在今天节目的这半部分中，我们有两个故事——一个关注左翼人士，另一个关注右翼人士，他们试图重塑自己阵营的政治。
And what we're going to do is we're going to start with the Republicans with Act Two, which we are calling "Right Man For the Job." And environmental lobbyists told me last week that our country will never do anything about global warming as long as climate denial is such a big part of Republican Party dogma, right?
我们要做的就是从共和党开始第二幕，我们称之为“工作的合适人选”。环境游说者上周告诉我，只要否认气候变化是共和党教条的重要组成部分，我们的国家就永远不会对全球变暖采取任何行动，对吧？
Until that changes, he said, you can't get the votes to pass anything.
他说，在这种情况发生改变之前，你无法获得通过任何东西的选票。
But there is a man out there whose mission is to make it possible for Republican candidates to say global warming is real.
但有一个人的使命是让共和党候选人能够承认全球变暖是真实的。
To make climate change safe for Republicans.
让气候变化对共和党人来说是安全的。
And that man is a Republican.
那个人是共和党人。
Ben Calhoun has the story.
本·卡尔霍恩讲述了这个故事。
Bob Inglis spent a total of 12 years as a Republican congressman in South Carolina.
鲍勃·英格利斯 (Bob Inglis) 在南卡罗来纳州担任共和党国会议员总共 12 年。
And here's how conservative he was.
这就是他的保守程度。
These are the numbers.
这些是数字。
Christian Coalition, 100% lifetime rating.
基督教联盟，100% 终生评级。
National Right to Life, 100%.
国家生命权，100%。
American Conservative Union, 93.
美国保守联盟，93。
An A with the NRA.
NRA 的 A 级。
What are some of the things that you've been called since you've been pursuing the climate change issue?
自从您一直致力于解决气候变化问题以来，您被称为什么？
Unpredictable, unreliable, unfaithful.
不可预测、不可靠、不忠诚。
A heretic, you know.
异教徒，你知道的。
I've been called the Al Gore of the Republican Party.
我被称为共和党的阿尔戈尔。
And that was not meant as a compliment.
这并不是一种恭维。
[LAUGHTER]
[笑声]
I mean, of any of the things that you've been called, are there any that have really gotten under your skin at all, or been particularly frustrating?
我的意思是，在你被称为的所有事物中，是否有任何事物真正让你感到不舒服，或者特别令人沮丧？
I think when I was called a traitor on the internet by one of my son's friends, who grew up with him.
我想当我在网上被我儿子的一位和他一起长大的朋友称为叛徒时。
That-- that hurt.
那——那很痛。
.
。
Bob Inglis got taken down in the Tea Party wave of 2010.
鲍勃·英格利斯 (Bob Inglis) 在 2010 年的茶党浪潮中被击败。
And he's now talked about as this textbook cautionary tale for Republicans about how dangerous climate change is for conservatives.
现在，他被视为共和党人的教科书警示故事，讲述了气候变化对保守派来说是多么危险。
Going into the election, Inglis had taken a few votes that annoyed staunch conservatives-- voting for the bank bailout, against the troop surge.
在选举中，英格利斯投了几张令坚定的保守派恼火的选票——投票支持银行救助，反对增兵。
And Inglis says, sure, those votes hurt him.
英格利斯说，当然，这些选票伤害了他。
But, he says, climate change was what did him in.
但是，他说，气候变化才是害他的原因。
[APPLAUSE] For instance, at a debate during the Republican primary, Bob's on stage with four Republican challengers.
[掌声] 例如，在共和党初选期间的一场辩论中，鲍勃与四名共和党挑战者同台。
One by one, they say climate change hasn't been proven, or that it doesn't exist.
他们一一表示气候变化尚未得到证实，或者根本不存在。
They mock Inglis about climate change.
他们嘲笑英格利斯关于气候变化的问题。
At one point, a South Carolina state senator named David Thomas stands up.
有一次，一位名叫大卫·托马斯的南卡罗来纳州参议员站了起来。
Thomas had actually supported Inglis in previous elections.
托马斯实际上在之前的选举中支持过英格利斯。
But now he was running against him, trying to take his seat.
但现在他却在跟他赛跑，想要抢占他的座位。
Bob has gone astray.
鲍勃误入歧途。
And I love Bob, but his insistence on the idea of catastrophic man-made global warming has taken him down a wrong path.
我爱鲍勃，但他坚持认为灾难性的人为全球变暖的想法使他走上了一条错误的道路。
[APPLAUSE] Ben Calhoun Bob Inglis's eventual defeat was humiliating.
[掌声] 本·卡尔霍恩·鲍勃·英格利斯最终的失败是一种耻辱。
He ultimately lost to a Tea Party-backed challenger, 71% to 29.
他最终以 71% 比 29 票输给了茶党支持的挑战者。
I just want to say those numbers again.
我只想再说一遍这些数字。
Bob Inglis, in a district he won six times, lost 71% to 29.
鲍勃·英格利斯 (Bob Inglis) 在他六次获胜的选区中以 71% 的得票率落败至 29 票。
After that, Bob spent some time thinking about what to do next, and decided what he'd do would be to devote himself to the very issue that got him unelected.
之后，鲍勃花了一些时间思考下一步该做什么，并决定他要做的就是致力于解决导致他落选的问题。
Double down on climate change.
加倍关注气候变化。
So he started a nonprofit called the Energy and Enterprise Initiative.
因此，他创办了一个名为“能源与企业计划”的非营利组织。
And now he spends his time making the case for climate change in front of the most conservative audiences in the country, trying to build a conservative coalition on the issue.
现在，他花时间在国内最保守的观众面前阐述气候变化的理由，试图在这个问题上建立一个保守联盟。
Trying to remove some of the political stigma that the issue has with people on the Right.
试图消除这个问题给右翼人士带来的一些政治耻辱。
I know.
我知道。
Could not be easier.
再简单不过了。
Every fiber in my body's saying you're a conservative.
我身体里的每一根纤维都在说你是个保守派。
You can't believe this.
你无法相信这一点。
This is Super Talk Mississippi , the top conservative talk network in the state of Mississippi.
这是密西西比州顶级保守派谈话网络 Super Talk Mississippi。
This is the morning host, Paul Gallo, interviewing Bob.
这是早间主持人保罗·加洛正在采访鲍勃。
Just to be clear, this was the first question, right out of the gate.
需要明确的是，这是第一个问题。
You're asking me, as a dyed-in-the-wool, native-born Mississippian, will die here, to believe that humans are responsible for global warming, and we must admit that.
你问我，作为一个地地道道的土生土长的密西西比人，将死在这里，相信人类应对全球变暖负有责任，而我们必须承认这一点。
Mic's yours, sir.
麦克风是你的了，先生。
Well, yeah.
嗯，是的。
I think that it is.
我认为是的。
The challenge here, Paul, is it's a conversation started by liberals, right?
保罗，这里的挑战是这是由自由主义者发起的对话，对吗？
We have liberals that basically started the conversation, and what we're used to as conservatives is they gin up hysteria, and then they drive through some regulations and some tax increases and grow government, right?
我们的自由派基本上开始了对话，而我们作为保守派所习惯的是他们歇斯底里，然后他们推动通过一些法规和一些税收增加并发展政府，对吗？
And so it's natural that we respond with no, we don't want to do that.
所以我们很自然地回答“不”，我们不想这样做。
But what we're saying is, OK, what if we change this conversation?
但我们想说的是，好吧，如果我们改变这个对话呢？
Bob believes the conversation about climate change is broken.
鲍勃认为有关气候变化的对话已经破裂。
Partly because the Left and the Right are incapable of talking to each other about the issue.
部分原因是左翼和右翼无法就这个问题进行对话。
On the liberal side, he doesn't think liberals understand what they look like when they try to argue climate change to conservatives.
在自由派方面，他认为自由派在试图向保守派争论气候变化时并不了解自己的样子。
How because the evidence is on their side, they often overplay their hand, and they come off scold-y and condescending.
因为证据是站在他们这边的，所以他们经常夸大其词，表现出责骂和居高临下的态度。
Bob also says he doesn't think liberals understand that conservatives see climate change as what he calls a, quote, "lifestyle issue." He says conservatives feel like their version of the American dream is under attack, that somehow, parents driving their kids through the suburbs in SUVs to soccer practice are being blamed as the cause of global warming, when in fact, everyone uses a lot of electricity and gasoline.
鲍勃还表示，他认为自由派不明白保守派将气候变化视为他所说的“生活方式问题”。他说，保守派觉得他们的美国梦正在受到攻击，不知何故，父母开着SUV穿过郊区去参加足球训练，被指责为全球变暖的原因，而事实上，每个人都使用大量的电力和汽油。
Everybody flies on planes.
每个人都坐飞机。
Bob thinks he can win conservatives over more effectively by saying to them, I share your values.
鲍勃认为，通过对保守派说“我认同你们的价值观”，他可以更有效地赢得他们的支持。
I know you're not a bad person.
我知道你不是一个坏人。
But I think we got this one wrong.
但我认为我们错了。
If you believe in taking care of this part of Eden that's left, and you believe in creation care--
如果你相信要照顾好伊甸园剩下的这一部分，并且你相信要照顾造物——
OK, in all due respect, the people of South Carolina apparently disagreed with you, as far as global warming.
好吧，恕我直言，就全球变暖问题而言，南卡罗来纳州人民显然不同意你的观点。
I don't believe that humans are creating this.
我不相信人类正在创造这个。
Because-- and neither do, apparently, a vast majority of climatologists out there.
因为——显然绝大多数气候学家也不这么认为。
No, I was tracking-- Paul Gallo That humans--
不，我在追踪——保罗·加洛（Paul Gallo）人类——
I was tracking with you until that last part.
我一直在跟踪你直到最后一部分。
You're just wrong on that last part.
你只是在最后一部分错了。
I-- I do a lot of reading on this.
我——我读了很多这方面的书。
You find me your meteorologist guy, and I'll find you mine.
你为我找到你的气象学家，我也会为你找到我的气象学家。
No, no, actually, you have to go look for the folks that you're looking for.
不，不，实际上，你必须去找你要找的人。
Because it's basically like this.
因为基本上就是这样的。
98 doctors tell you to treat your son this way.
98位医生告诉你，要这样对待你的儿子。
Two say this other.
两个说这个另一个。
It's not conservative to go with the two.
两者搭配并不保守。
You're talking about the two climatologists.
你说的是两位气候学家。
You're not talking about the 98.
你说的不是98。
No, no, no-- Bob Inglis I mean, those are the numbers.
不，不，不——鲍勃·英格利斯，我的意思是，这些就是数字。
In the end, Bob doesn't convince the host.
最终，鲍勃没有说服主持人。
But the conversation's civil.
但谈话是文明的。
He hears him out.
他听他说完。
Seems like he might even think about it.
看来他甚至可以考虑一下。
Which for now, is the point.
现在这就是重点。
For the last year or so, Bob's been getting into conservative publications-- Forbes , the Washington Times .
在过去一年左右的时间里，鲍勃一直在关注保守派出版物——《福布斯》、《华盛顿时报》。
He's also been crisscrossing the country, going to DC and business schools, universities.
他还穿梭于全国各地，前往华盛顿特区、商学院、大学。
Pretty much going anyplace in the US where he thinks he can get Republicans to listen to him.
他几乎会去美国任何一个他认为可以让共和党人听他讲话的地方。
If you look at the polling of Republicans on climate change, one of the first things you notice right away is this huge gap between how Republican citizens feel and how Republican politicians vote.
如果您查看共和党人对气候变化的民意调查，您立即注意到的第一件事就是共和党公民的感受与共和党政客的投票方式之间的巨大差距。
A recent nonpartisan poll by Pew found that 44% of Republicans believe the climate's changing.
皮尤研究中心最近进行的一项无党派民意调查发现，44% 的共和党人认为气候正在发生变化。
Another by Gallup found that 40% of Republicans are actively worried about climate change.
盖洛普的另一项调查发现，40% 的共和党人非常担心气候变化。
With that in mind, consider a vote just a couple years ago on the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
考虑到这一点，请考虑几年前众议院能源和商业委员会的一次投票。
All 31 Republican members unanimously voted down symbolic language that would have simply acknowledged the climate's changing, and humans are contributing to it.
所有 31 名共和党议员一致投票否决了象征性语言，这些语言只是简单地承认气候正在变化，而人类正在对此做出贡献。
That gap-- 40% of Republican voters worried about climate change versus 0% of that committee-- that's Inglis's target.
这一差距——40% 的共和党选民担心气候变化，而该委员会的这一比例为 0%——这就是英格利斯的目标。
That's his business opportunity.
这就是他的商业机会。
That's what makes his mission seem realistic.
这就是让他的使命显得现实的原因。
It's like 40% of Republicans want ham sandwiches.
好像 40% 的共和党人想要火腿三明治。
Surely you can persuade a few more Republicans to sell ham sandwiches.
当然，你可以说服更多的共和党人出售火腿三明治。
Inglis's group has counted all the Republicans in the House and Senate who have ever publicly acknowledged that climate change is real.
英格利斯的小组统计了众议院和参议院中所有公开承认气候变化真实存在的共和党人。
There's 20 names on their list, out of 278 Republicans.
他们的名单上有 278 名共和党人，其中有 20 人。
The hunch you start to get is that there must be Republicans who believe the science but are just afraid to stick their neck out for the issue.
你开始得到的预感是，一定有共和党人相信科学，但只是害怕在这个问题上冒险。
Do you know, personally, Republican members who find the science credible but would never say so publicly?
您是否知道，就您个人而言，共和党成员认为科学可信，但绝不会公开这么说？
Oh, yeah.
哦，是的。
Ben Calhoun Can you name them?
本·卡尔霍恩 你能说出他们的名字吗？
No, I'd better not do that.
不，我最好不要这样做。
[LAUGHTER] I can't out 'em.
[笑声]我无法击败他们。
But so yeah, there are members of Congress, Republicans, who know better, but they're afraid of crossing what's become the orthodoxy.
但是，是的，有些国会议员、共和党人，他们知道得更清楚，但他们害怕违背已经成为正统的观念。
This winter, I was visiting the gym, the House gym in Washington, a couple months ago.
今年冬天，几个月前，我参观了华盛顿的 House 健身房。
And a friend, a member of Congress, and I were talking, and--
我和一位朋友、一位国会议员正在谈话，然后——
This is a Republican member?
这是共产党员？
Bob Inglis Republican member of Congress.
鲍勃·英格利斯 (Bob Inglis) 国会共和党议员。
We were talking, and we had some discussion about what's going on Congress.
我们正在交谈，并对国会正在发生的事情进行了一些讨论。
And then he asked me at the end, now, what are you doing again?
然后最后他问我，现在你又在做什么？
And so I told him, you know, I'm doing this thing of trying to convince conservatives there's a conservative answer to energy and climate.
所以我告诉他，你知道，我正在做这件事试图说服保守派，对能源和气候问题有一个保守的答案。
Bob says at that moment, the Republican congressman he was talking to paused.
鲍勃说，就在那一刻，与他交谈的共和党国会议员停了下来。
Then he looked back over one shoulder, and then over the other.
然后他回头看了一眼，又看了看另一肩。
And then he turned back to Bob.
然后他又转向鲍勃。
He says to me, yeah, we got to get it right on that, don't we?
他对我说，是的，我们必须把事情做好，不是吗？
And he sort of gave me a knowing nod and a wink, and just walked away.
他似懂非懂地向我点了点头，眨了眨眼睛，然后就走开了。
I talked to Republican staffers from both houses.
我与参众两院的共和党工作人员进行了交谈。
Some said Bob's right, that more Republicans believe the science than will say so publicly.
有人说鲍勃是对的，相信科学的共和党人比公开这么说的人还要多。
People are scared.
人们很害怕。
I talked to one staffer in the House, an energy advisor to a very conservative Republican representative.
我与众议院的一名工作人员进行了交谈，他是一位非常保守的共和党代表的能源顾问。
He agreed to talk to me only if he was anonymous.
他同意只在匿名的情况下与我交谈。
He told me Republican staffers tend to buy the science more than members, because they're younger.
他告诉我，共和党工作人员比议员更倾向于相信科学，因为他们更年轻。
But he estimates there's at least a few dozen Republicans in the House who agree with the science but who would never say so.
但他估计众议院中至少有几十名共和党人同意这一科学观点，但他们永远不会这么说。
He also said something that Bob said, that if Republicans could vote their conscience on climate change, not have to worry about politics, you could pass climate change legislation today.
他还说了鲍勃说过的话，如果共和党人能够在气候变化问题上凭良心投票，而不必担心政治，那么今天就可以通过气候变化立法。
The very hypothetical math here is that if you got all the Democrats to agree on something, you'd only need 17 Republicans to get a majority in the House.
这里的假设数学是，如果你让所有民主党人就某件事达成一致，那么只需要 17 名共和党人就能在众议院获得多数席位。
But here's how far we are from that "Kumbaya" day.
但我们距离“Kumbaya”这一天还有多远。
This House staffer told me that personally, he feels passionately about climate change.
这位众议院工作人员告诉我，他个人对气候变化充满热情。
But he's never told his boss, because he thinks he'd get fired.
但他从未告诉老板，因为他认为自己会被解雇。
I said, fired?
我说，开除？
Do you really think you'd get fired?
你真的认为你会被解雇吗？
He told me, look, I'm a good employee.
他告诉我，看，我是一名好员工。
Maybe I'd get one strike.
也许我会受到一击。
But if people in our district knew I believed in climate change, and I'm his energy advisor, they would freak out.
但如果我们地区的人们知道我相信气候变化，而且我是他的能源顾问，他们会吓坏的。
I'd be a liability.
我会是一个责任。
If that got out, the smart thing for my boss to do would be to fire me.
如果这件事传出去，我老板明智的做法就是解雇我。
Inglis does have a small but growing list of allies.
英格利斯的盟友数量虽然不多，但仍在不断增加。
His group's website showcases some of this stuff.
他的小组的网站展示了其中的一些内容。
In general, it's people with solid conservative credentials but nothing to lose.
一般来说，这些人拥有扎实的保守派资历，但没有什么可失去的。
Like there's this video of Ronald Reagan's Secretary of State, George Shultz, showing off his new ride.
就像罗纳德·里根的国务卿乔治·舒尔茨展示他的新座驾的视频一样。
And I have my electric car, running on electricity from the sun.
我还有我的电动汽车，靠太阳的电力运行。
So I'm driving on sunshine.
所以我在阳光下开车。
Take that, Ahmadinejad.
接受这个，艾哈迈迪内贾德。
Some other notable folks on the site-- a top economics advisor to Mitt Romney, two from the McCain campaign, Ronald Reagan's economics advisor, and conservative icon Art Laffer.
该网站上还有其他一些知名人士——米特·罗姆尼的一位高级经济顾问、麦凯恩竞选团队的两名顾问、罗纳德·里根的经济顾问以及保守派偶像阿特·拉弗。
But Inglis is the first to say, the thing he's trying to do, it's lonely.
但英格利斯第一个说，他想做的事情是孤独的。
Like being in an ongoing, nonstop search for friends.
就像不断地、不间断地寻找朋友一样。
Hey, how are you?
嘿，你怎么样？
Audience Member Greg Langworthy, glad to meet you.
观众格雷格·兰沃西，很高兴认识你。
Bob Inglis.
鲍勃·英格利斯.
Craig?
克雷格？
Audience Member Greg Langworthy.
观众格雷格·兰沃西。
Greg.
格雷格.
Ben Calhoun Recently I joined Inglis on a trip to the University of Kentucky.
本·卡尔霍恩 最近，我和英格利斯一起去了肯塔基大学。
Oh, there is chicken available.
哦，还有鸡肉可以吃。
That's why people are here.
这就是人们在这里的原因。
[LAUGHTER] Ben Calhoun Watching him in person, what's totally apparently is just how hard he's trying.
[笑声] 本·卡尔霍恩 (Ben Calhoun) 亲眼目睹他的表现，可以明显看出他有多努力。
In just this one day that I'm following him around, Bob's schedule includes an appearance on conservative talk radio, a visit to a newspaper editorial board, several media interviews, a presentation at the University of Kentucky's law school in front of the UK Federalist Society, and then a big nighttime event with him and two other speakers.
就在我跟踪他的这一天，鲍勃的日程安排包括出现在保守派谈话电台、访问一家报纸编辑委员会、接受几次媒体采访、在肯塔基大学法学院在英国联邦党人协会面前发表演讲，然后与他和另外两位演讲者一起参加一场大型夜间活动。
Bob and his staff said this Kentucky trip, this was the kind of event they really look forward to.
鲍勃和他的工作人员表示，这次肯塔基之行，这才是他们真正期待的活动。
A red state, a Southern state, a coal-producing state.
红色州，南方州，产煤州。
This was the kind of place and the kind of audience that he's trying to reach.
这就是他想要接触的地方和观众。
Good evening, and welcome to the University of Kentucky.
晚上好，欢迎来到肯塔基大学。
The evening event's in the university's Grand Ballroom.
晚上的活动在大学的大宴会厅举行。
It's this huge room.
就是这个巨大的房间。
And there's a good-sized crowd, easily over 200 people.
而且人群规模很大，轻松超过200人。
And the program, from start to finish, is custom-tailored to appeal to conservatives in pretty much every way you could possibly imagine.
该计划从开始到结束都是量身定制的，几乎以您能想象到的各种方式吸引保守派。
It starts with a respected climate scientist named Katharine Hayhoe, who also happens to be a devout Christian.
故事始于一位名叫凯瑟琳·海霍（Katharine Hayhoe）的受人尊敬的气候科学家，她恰好也是一位虔诚的基督徒。
So science can give us a lot of facts.
所以科学可以给我们很多事实。
But in order to decide what to do with those facts, we have to look to our values.
但为了决定如何处理这些事实，我们必须审视我们的价值观。
And my values come from my faith.
我的价值观来自我的信仰。
After her, there's a retired army general from Tennessee, a self-described conservative Republican who makes a case that climate change and fossil fuels, they're a national security risk.
在她之后，还有一位来自田纳西州的退役陆军将军，他自称是保守派共和党人，他认为气候变化和化石燃料是国家安全的风险。
Bob is the closer, with a speech designed for climate skeptics.
鲍勃是最接近的，他的演讲是为气候怀疑论者设计的。
At the center of his speech is this pitch to do this thing that all kinds of economists, liberal and conservative, say would reduce greenhouse gases, and that's to tax carbon.
他演讲的核心是主张做这件事，各种经济学家，无论是自由派还是保守派，都认为可以减少温室气体排放，那就是对碳征税。
Tax CO2 emissions.
对二氧化碳排放征税。
Bob clearly knows this isn't an easy sell to conservatives.
鲍勃显然知道这对保守派来说并不容易接受。
Now there's a real problem with saying carbon tax.
现在说碳税确实有问题。
If you say it to a conservative audience, which is our target audience, conservatives break out in hives when you mention the word carbon, and they go into anaphylactic shock when you mention the word tax.
如果你对保守派受众（也就是我们的目标受众）说这句话，当你提到“碳”这个词时，保守派就会爆发荨麻疹，当你提到“税”这个词时，他们会陷入过敏性休克。
And so you need EpiPens available to revive them, get them back breathing.
因此，您需要 EpiPen 来让他们苏醒，让他们恢复呼吸。
But hang with me now.
但现在就和我在一起吧。
After the second point, which is attaching a cost to carbon, comes a third point, which is, cut taxes somewhere else in equal amount.
在第二点（即增加碳成本）之后，还有第三点，即在其他地方等量减税。
Dollar-for-dollar reduction in some other tax.
其他一些税收的逐美元减少。
So there's no growth of government.
所以政府没有增长。
There's more to it, but that's the gist of it.
还有更多内容，但这就是要点。
Tax pollution, and then cut taxes on income.
对污染征税，然后削减收入税。
Bob says even if you're a conservative who doesn't believe the scientific evidence for climate change, that idea makes sense.
鲍勃说，即使你是一个保守派，不相信气候变化的科学证据，这个想法也是有道理的。
You should still be able to get behind it.
你应该仍然能够支持它。
The thing you want more of, tax that less.
你想要更多的东西，就少征税。
The thing you want less of, tax that instead.
你想要少的东西，就对它征税。
So cut income taxes.
所以削减所得税。
Tax pollution instead.
相反，要对污染征税。
At all his Kentucky events, Bob says all kinds of things to remind conservatives, I'm one of you.
在肯塔基州的所有活动中，鲍勃都会说各种各样的话来提醒保守派，我是你们中的一员。
He bashes unions.
他抨击工会。
He calls Social Security a Ponzi scheme.
他称社会保障是庞氏骗局。
Name-drops Milton Friedman.
米尔顿·弗里德曼 (Milton Friedman) 的名字被提及。
Talks about his Christianity.
谈论他的基督教。
For over an hour, all three of the panelists hustle, like they know they're underdogs.
在一个多小时的时间里，三位小组成员都在忙碌，就像他们知道自己是失败者一样。
Like they know the crowd's against them.
就像他们知道人群反对他们一样。
Bob wraps it up at about 8 o'clock, the end of a 14-hour day for him.
鲍勃在 8 点左右完成工作，对他来说，一天 14 小时的工作结束了。
Give me an amen.
给我一个阿门。
I'll stop preaching.
我会停止说教。
Thank you very much.
非常感谢。
[APPLAUSE] Ben Calhoun After all three speeches, they open it up for questions.
[掌声] 本·卡尔霍恩 (Ben Calhoun) 三场演讲结束后，开始提问。
And this is when things change.
这就是事情发生变化的时候。
One student makes a comment to the general about how the US should get out of Afghanistan, and the room cheers.
一名学生向将军评论了美国应该如何撤出阿富汗，全场一片欢呼。
A few questions later, Bob's urging the Kentucky crowd to call their senators-- Rand Paul, Mitch McConnell-- to make the kind of pitch he's talking about, conservative to conservative.
几个问题之后，鲍勃敦促肯塔基州的民众打电话给他们的参议员兰德·保罗、米奇·麦康奈尔，以他所说的方式进行宣传，保守派对保守派。
And the audience responds like those guys are some sort of joke.
观众的反应就像那些家伙是个笑话。
And at around this point, I was just, like, oh, this isn't a bunch of conservatives.
在这一点上，我只是想，哦，这不是一群保守派。
This is a room full of liberals.
这是一个充满自由主义者的房间。
I followed Bob afterwards as he walked around, meeting people from the audience.
后来我跟着鲍勃走来走去，与观众见面。
He was visibly tired, but he kept a smile on his face, shaking hands and being friendly until the last person had left the room.
他显然很累，但脸上一直挂着微笑，握手并保持友好，直到最后一个人离开房间。
It felt a little mean to point out that this wasn't the crowd he expected.
指出这不是他预期的人群，感觉有点刻薄。
So I said, instead--
所以我说，相反——
Um, I wish we had a lot more conservatives.
嗯，我希望我们有更多的保守派。
We're hearing mostly from left of center.
我们听到的声音大多来自中左翼。
Of course Bob knew.
鲍勃当然知道。
It wasn't the first time this had happened.
这不是第一次发生这种情况。
Turns out to be a recurring problem for him.
事实证明，这对他来说是一个反复出现的问题。
Bob wants to have difficult conversations with conservatives about climate change.
鲍勃希望与保守派就气候变化问题进行艰难的对话。
And he's doing that, for sure.
他确实正在这样做。
But often he finds there's another audience out there, an audience eager to hear a conservative say, conservatives are wrong about climate change.
但他经常发现还有另一群听众，这些听众渴望听到保守派的说法，保守派在气候变化问题上的看法是错误的。
They love it.
他们喜欢它。
And that audience, his natural fan base right now, a fan base he's not super interested in, is liberals.
而那个观众，他现在的天然粉丝群，他不太感兴趣的粉丝群，是自由主义者。
Ben Calhoun.
本·卡尔霍恩.
He's one of the producers of our show.
他是我们节目的制作人之一。
Act Three.
第三幕。
"Find an Enemy." So now we move from the Republicans to the Democrats.
“寻找敌人。”所以现在我们从共和党转向民主党。
I would argue that the guy on the Left who is doing more than anyone to reinvent the politics of climate change, to give our entire national conversation about it a good hard shove, is named Bill McKibben.
我认为，左翼人士比尔·麦基本（Bill McKibben）在重塑气候变化政治方面所做的工作比任何人都多，他大力推动了我们整个全国范围内关于气候变化的讨论。
Last summer, McKibben published an article in Rolling Stone Magazine that was basically a manifesto for how to do this.
去年夏天，麦基本在《滚石》杂志上发表了一篇文章，基本上是关于如何做到这一点的宣言。
He notes that there is a weird science about the subject of climate change.
他指出，关于气候变化这个话题有一种奇怪的科学。
It's back-burner.
这是次要的。
Over half of all Americans tell pollsters that they are worried about global warming, but that worry is not getting channeled toward any particular action to fix things.
超过一半的美国人告诉民意调查者，他们担心全球变暖，但这种担忧并没有转化为任何具体的行动来解决问题。
McKibben says the problem with the political strategy so far is that it's mostly asked people to do something that they feel very ambivalent about-- to go green.
麦基本表示，迄今为止政治策略的问题在于，它大多要求人们做一些他们感到非常矛盾的事情——走向绿色。
To produce less carbon dioxide personally.
减少个人产生的二氧化碳。
As he points out, we all like cheap airfares on airplanes that spew emissions.
正如他指出的那样，我们都喜欢排放废气的廉价飞机。
He writes, quote, "Since all of us are in some way the beneficiaries of cheap fossil fuel, tackling climate change has been like trying to build a movement against yourself.
他写道，“由于我们所有人在某种程度上都是廉价化石燃料的受益者，因此应对气候变化就像试图发起一场反对自己的运动。
It's as if the gay rights movement had to be constructed entirely from evangelical preachers or the abolition movement from slaveholders."
就好像同性恋权利运动必须完全由福音派传教士或奴隶主的废奴运动来构建一样。”
And he says, those of us who bite the bullet-- actually buy a hybrid car or those coil-y light bulbs that use less electricity--
他说，我们这些硬着头皮买一辆混合动力汽车或那些耗电量更少的线圈灯泡的人——
You can't help but look at your new light bulb and think, you know what?
您会情不自禁地看着您的新灯泡并想，您知道吗？
I don't think this is going to solve climate change.
我认为这不会解决气候变化问题。
And you're right to think that.
你的想法是对的。
You write in your article, "People perceive-- correctly-- that their individual actions will not make a decisive difference in the atmospheric concentration of CO2."
您在文章中写道，“人们正确地认识到，他们的个人行为不会对大气中二氧化碳浓度产生决定性影响。”
Yeah.
是的。
You can't make the math add up that way.
你不能用这种方式进行数学加法。
He says the other thing that should be clear to everybody at this point is that trying to explain the problem better-- sending scientists to Capitol Hill, making a strong case for action, trying to win over the doubters-- that has not been effective at getting legislative action.
他说，此时每个人都应该清楚的另一件事是，试图更好地解释问题——派遣科学家到国会山，提出强有力的行动理由，试图赢得怀疑者——这并没有有效地采取立法行动。
And he says it hasn't been effective because of political opposition.
他表示，由于政治反对，这一举措并未奏效。
And he says the people who are pumping huge rivers of money into the opposition, funding studies to confuse the issue, and funding anti-climate change organizations, and especially funding politicians who do not budge, still, on climate change, are the oil and gas and coal companies-- whose products, of course, produce lots of CO2.
他还表示，向反对派注入巨额资金、资助混淆问题的研究、资助反气候变化组织，尤其是资助那些在气候变化问题上仍不让步的政客的人是石油、天然气和煤炭公司——它们的产品当然会产生大量二氧化碳。
Their role is well documented and not a secret at all.
他们的角色有据可查，根本不是什么秘密。
Those industries fought to kill the 2009 cap and trade bill.
这些行业奋力废除 2009 年的限额与交易法案。
They funded a multimillion-dollar lobbying effort that successfully kept the Senate from ratifying, or even voting on, the Kyoto Protocol, which was the first binding commitment on greenhouse gases in international law.
他们资助了数百万美元的游说活动，成功阻止了参议院批准《京都议定书》，甚至没有对其进行投票，这是国际法中第一个关于温室气体的具有约束力的承诺。
But-- and this is what's new about McKibben's approach-- McKibben says that having an enemy like this is not a bad thing.
但是——这就是麦基本方法的新颖之处——麦基本说，有这样的敌人并不是一件坏事。
He wrote in his manifesto that rapid political change requires a true political movement and, quote, "movements require enemies." As John F.
他在宣言中写道，快速的政治变革需要真正的政治运动，并且引用“运动需要敌人”。正如约翰·F.
Kennedy put it, he writes, "'The civil rights movement should thank God for Bull Connor.
肯尼迪写道，“民权运动应该感谢上帝赐予布尔·康纳。
He's helped it as much as Abraham Lincoln.' Enemies," McKibben writes, "are what climate change has lacked."
他和亚伯拉罕·林肯一样为此事提供了帮助。麦基本写道，“气候变化所缺乏的正是敌人。”
And last fall, McKibben hit the road to sound the alarm that climate change in fact does have an enemy, and to organize an army against that enemy.
去年秋天，麦基本上路敲响了气候变化确实有敌人的警报，并组织了一支军队来对抗这个敌人。
His goal-- to turn the oil and gas and coal companies into pariahs, like cigarette companies, as a way to destroy their political clout.
他的目标是将石油、天然气和煤炭公司变成贱民，就像烟草公司一样，以此来摧毁它们的政治影响力。
[APPLAUSE AND CHEERING] Bill Mckibben Wow.
[掌声和欢呼] Bill Mckibben 哇。
Thank you all enormously.
非常感谢大家。
Boulder, Colorado-- stop 21 on a 22-city tour.
科罗拉多州博尔德——22 座城市之旅的第 21 站。
An 1,100-seat hall that, like usual on this tour, has loads of college students and, like usual, is sold out.
一个有 1,100 个座位的大厅，像这次巡演中的往常一样，挤满了大学生，而且和往常一样，座位都卖完了。
McKibben himself is a 50-something with a runner's build and wire-rim glasses.
麦基本本人 50 多岁，有着跑步者的体格，戴着金属框眼镜。
On stage, he looks perennially like he is just about to get comfortable.
在舞台上，他看起来总是一副即将适应的样子。
He chops his arms up and down to punctuate his sentences.
他上下挥动手臂来强调他的句子。
You can tell, from watching me, that I'm not really a trained orator or activist or something.
从我的观察中你可以看出，我并不是一个真正受过训练的演说家或活动家之类的。
This is not what I'm great at, OK?
这不是我擅长的，好吗？
I'm a writer, which is almost the opposite.
我是一名作家，这几乎相反。
Um, um, um--
嗯嗯嗯——
His road to the stage began in the 1980s.
他的舞台之路始于20世纪80年代。
As a young reporter for The New Yorker Magazine , he wrote the first book for a general audience on global warming-- it was called The End of Nature -- and published a long excerpt in the magazine.
作为《纽约客》杂志的一名年轻记者，他为普通读者写了第一本关于全球变暖的书，书名是《自然的终结》，并在杂志上发表了长篇摘录。
When I was 27 and I wrote The End of Nature , my theory of change was people will read my book, and then they will change.
当我 27 岁写下《自然的终结》时，我的变革理论是人们会读我的书，然后他们就会改变。
[LAUGHTER] Bill Mckibben Which turns out not to be how it works.
[笑声] Bill Mckibben 事实证明，事情并不是这样的。
How it works, of course, is old-fashioned politics.
当然，它的运作方式是老式的政治。
Organizing people.
组织人。
And McKibben started to switch roles from reporter to activist in 2006, when he noticed that nobody else seemed to be doing this when it came to global warming.
2006 年，麦基本开始从记者转变为活动家，当时他注意到在全球变暖问题上似乎没有其他人这样做。
He says he set out on this current campaign after he saw some numbers that were sobering even for him, somebody who's followed this issue for decades.
他说，在看到一些数字后，他开始了这次竞选活动，这些数字甚至对他这个几十年来一直关注这个问题的人来说也发人深省。
He tells his audience that everything they need to know about the climate issue just comes down to these few key numbers.
他告诉听众，他们需要了解的有关气候问题的一切都可以归结为这几个关键数字。
The first is two degrees Celsius.
第一个是两摄氏度。
The world's governments agreed, in 2009 at the UN Climate Meeting in Copenhagen, that if the Earth's temperature rises two degrees more than it was before global warming kicked in, we're screwed.
2009 年，世界各国政府在哥本哈根举行的联合国气候会议上一致认为，如果地球温度比全球变暖之前上升两度，我们就完蛋了。
Just exactly how screwed, of course-- how quickly the ocean rise, how bad the hurricanes and droughts and food shortages-- that's all a guess.
当然，到底有多糟糕——海平面上升的速度有多快，飓风、干旱和粮食短缺有多严重——这都是猜测。
But two degrees is the red line that the world agreed on.
但两度是世界商定的红线。
Everybody signed it.
大家都签了字。
The EU, Japan, Russia.
欧盟、日本、俄罗斯。
Countries that make their living selling oil, the United Arab Emirates.
以销售石油为生的国家，阿拉伯联合酋长国。
The most conservative, reluctant, recalcitrant-- China signed.
最保守、最不情愿、最顽固的——中国签署了。
Even the United States signed on to this thing.
甚至美国也签署了这件事。
[LAUGHTER] Ira Glass When you calculate exactly how much carbon dioxide it would take to drive up the planet's temperature two degrees-- and there's a famous and frequently cited 2009 study which does just this-- you learn that if the world keeps producing carbon dioxide at the rate we're going now, in just 14 years, we'll produce enough to send the planet up two degrees.
[笑声] Ira Glass 当你准确地计算出需要多少二氧化碳才能使地球温度升高两度时——2009 年有一项著名且经常被引用的研究就是这样做的——你就会知道，如果世界继续以现在的速度产生二氧化碳，在短短 14 年内，我们生产的二氧化碳就足以使地球温度升高两度。
And, McKibben says, even more frightening is when you look at all the coal and oil and gas that has already been discovered, that we know about and is sitting there right now, waiting to be pumped out and used, when you calculate how much carbon dioxide that stuff will release, it is five times more than the amount that would get us to two degrees.
麦基本说，更可怕的是，当你看看所有已经发现的煤炭、石油和天然气，我们知道它们现在就在那里，等待被抽出和使用，当你计算出这些东西将释放多少二氧化碳时，它是使我们达到两度的二氧化碳量的五倍。
Five times more.
五倍多。
And this, says McKibben, is why the companies sitting on those reserves should be branded as pariahs.
麦基本说，这就是为什么拥有这些储备的公司应该被贴上贱民的标签。
As an international global menace.
作为一种国际性的全球威胁。
Because they do, in fact, plan to pump that stuff out and sell it.
因为事实上他们确实计划将这些东西抽出来并出售。
In fact, the financial markets are counting on them to do that.
事实上，金融市场正指望他们做到这一点。
Their stock price is based on turning those underground assets into revenue.
他们的股价是基于将这些地下资产转化为收入。
I mean, if they carry out their business plans, the planet tanks.
我的意思是，如果他们执行他们的商业计划，地球就会崩溃。
Exxon alone, one company, has 7% of the carbon in its reserves necessary to take us past that red line.
仅埃克森美孚一家公司就拥有 7% 的碳储量，足以帮助我们跨越红线。
What these numbers show is that the fossil fuel industry is now a rogue industry, determined to do things that everybody who studies this knows are unwise, unsafe, crazy.
这些数字表明，化石燃料行业现在是一个流氓行业，它决心做一些每个研究这个行业的人都知道的不明智、不安全和疯狂的事情。
At the end of every talk on his 22-city tour this fall, McKibben asked the students in the audience to rise to their feet and join a divestment campaign to get the colleges and universities to sell off their fossil fuel stock.
今年秋天，在他的 22 个城市巡演的每次演讲结束时，麦基本都要求观众中的学生站起来，加入撤资运动，让学院和大学出售他们的化石燃料库存。
It's a strategy modeled on the campaign against South Africa's apartheid government in the 1980s, which South African leaders have said was instrumental in helping push the regime into negotiations to end apartheid.
该战略以 20 世纪 80 年代反对南非种族隔离政府的运动为蓝本，南非领导人表示，该战略有助于推动该政权进行结束种族隔离的谈判。
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE] Ken Cohen The idea that divesting of a company stock, particularly our stock, speaking as a long-time employee of ExxonMobil, to me that is not a very wise decision.
[欢呼和掌声] 肯·科恩 作为埃克森美孚的长期员工，剥离公司股票，特别是我们的股票，对我来说这不是一个非常明智的决定。
We're a very good investment.
我们是一项非常好的投资。
When I called ExxonMobil, the world's largest oil company and the world's most profitable company of any kind, they seemed positively happy for a chance to comment about McKibben's campaign.
当我打电话给埃克森美孚，世界上最大的石油公司和世界上最赚钱的公司时，他们似乎非常高兴有机会评论麦基本的竞选活动。
The press office set me up with Ken Cohen, who's in charge of governmental and public affairs for ExxonMobil worldwide.
新闻办公室为我安排了肯·科恩（Ken Cohen），他负责埃克森美孚全球的政府和公共事务。
Can I ask, when you read something like this Rolling Stone article, where he's trying to make the case that the oil companies should be treated like the cigarette companies, do you kind of roll your eyes and feel, like, seriously?
我能问一下，当你读到像《滚石》杂志这样的文章时，他试图证明石油公司应该像烟草公司一样对待，你是否会翻白眼并感到认真？
That's a very good-- yes, that is how I feel.
这非常好——是的，这就是我的感受。
It is.
这是。
It's trying to make a very complicated subject trivial.
它试图使一个非常复杂的主题变得微不足道。
And to me, it's insulting, particularly in a university setting, to students and faculty.
对我来说，这是对学生和教师的侮辱，尤其是在大学环境中。
It is not getting at all at what the debate and discussion should be about.
它根本没有理解辩论和讨论应该讨论的内容。
These days, it's important to note that ExxonMobil acknowledges that climate change is real, and that mankind's emissions have an impact.
如今，值得注意的是，埃克森美孚承认气候变化是真实存在的，并且人类的排放会产生影响。
And this may surprise you-- since 2009, ExxonMobil has supported a carbon tax.
这可能会让您感到惊讶——自 2009 年以来，埃克森美孚就支持征收碳税。
The same type of carbon tax that McKibben calls for.
麦基本呼吁征收同样类型的碳税。
But Cohen says that McKibben oversimplifies when he acts like, oh, let's just switch from fossil fuels to something else, and we can do that in 14 years.
但科恩表示，麦基本过于简单化了，他的表现是，哦，让我们从化石燃料转向其他燃料，我们可以在 14 年内做到这一点。
He says that even if you make a heroic increase in the amount of electricity produced by wind and solar power, it won't be enough by then.
他说，即使大幅增加风能和太阳能发电量，到那时也还不够。
It is totally unrealistic to think that we would have substitutes for the current energy sources.
认为我们会有现有能源的替代品是完全不现实的。
They just do not exist.
它们只是不存在。
But when it comes to the numbers at the heart of McKibben's argument, the numbers showing that if Exxon and other companies simply sell what is in their reserves, they will drive up the planet's temperature far more than two degrees, I asked Cohen and his PR guy, and the press people at the oil industry lobbying group, the American Petroleum Institute, several times for anything they might have that would dispute those numbers.
但当谈到麦基本论点的核心数字时，这些数字表明，如果埃克森美孚和其他公司只是出售其储备中的石油，它们将使地球温度升高远超过两度，我多次询问科恩和他的公关人员，以及石油行业游说团体美国石油协会的新闻界人士，以了解他们可能拥有的任何可能对这些数字提出异议的信息。
And they didn't come up with anything.
他们什么也没想出来。
Finally, Exxon sent me to an industry-funded expert at MIT who told me not only that McKibben's numbers were solid but that in fact, at current rate of emissions, by the end of the century, we'll probably raise the planet's temperature five degrees.
最后，埃克森美孚派我去见麻省理工学院的一位行业资助的专家，他不仅告诉我麦基本的数据是可靠的，而且事实上，按照目前的排放速度，到本世纪末，我们可能会将地球温度提高五度。
So McKibben issued a call to war.
于是麦基本发出了战争号召。
How's it going?
怎么样了？
Well, even if the oil companies don't seem scared in the slightest just yet, in the six months since McKibben's tour, divestment campaigns have sprung up on over 300 campuses.
好吧，即使石油公司似乎还没有丝毫害怕，但在 McKibben 巡演后的六个月内，撤资运动已经在 300 多个园区如雨后春笋般涌现。
Five small schools have divested.
五所小型学校已被撤资。
This is remarkably quick, compared to the South Africa divestment movement.
与南非的撤资运动相比，这一速度非常快。
It took seven or eight years to organize and get schools to divest in those pre-internet days.
在互联网出现之前，我们花了七八年的时间来组织并让学校撤资。
But calling around to student organizers, I found that at most schools, they are still in the very early stages.
但我打电话给学生组织者，发现大多数学校仍处于非常早期的阶段。
Way too early to show any results.
现在显示任何结果还为时过早。
Maybe getting a few hundred signatures on a petition, or they've approached their administrations for the first time and asked them to divest, and been politely told no. Or not yet, which is a typical first step.
也许在请愿书上得到了几百个签名，或者他们第一次联系他们的政府并要求他们撤资，但被礼貌地拒绝了。或者还没有，这是典型的第一步。
I've met with John Maeda, the president, Bill Decatur, the finance VP.
我会见了总裁 John Maeda 和财务副总裁 Bill Decatur。
Emma runs the student divestment campaign at RISD, the Rhode Island School of Design, where she's a senior.
艾玛在罗德岛设计学院（RISD）负责学生撤资活动，她是该学院的一名大四学生。
She's met, by the way, with a handful of other administrators and board members there.
顺便说一句，她在那里会见了一些其他管理人员和董事会成员。
She says until she saw Bill McKibben speak this fall, she had never been politically active in anything.
她说，直到今年秋天看到比尔·麦基本 (Bill McKibben) 发表讲话之前，她从未积极参与过任何政治活动。
If there ever was a school that you would think would divest quickly, it would be RISD.
如果你认为有一所学校会很快撤资，那一定是罗德岛设计学院。
In March, when Emma raised the issue at a faculty meeting, the faculty didn't just vote for divestment, they were unanimous.
三月份，当艾玛在教职员工会议上提出这个问题时，教职员工不仅投票支持撤资，而且一致同意。
This, after all, is a school of artists and designers.
毕竟，这是一所艺术家和设计师的学校。
There's no economics department.
没有经济系。
Barely a conservative on campus, everybody told me.
每个人都告诉我，他在校园里算不上保守派。
And Emma's first meetings were promising.
艾玛的第一次见面很有希望。
The administrators were saying--
管理员们说——
You know, this is really great to see this kind of activism on campus.
你知道，在校园里看到这种活动真是太棒了。
The students should be more involved.
学生应该更多地参与。
So glad you're bringing this up.
很高兴你提出这个问题。
And you're right, this is an incredibly urgent issue, and we should look into this right now.
你是对的，这是一个非常紧迫的问题，我们现在应该对此进行调查。
Were you getting a little bit of, like, being patted on the head, like, oh, it's so good that you young people are being active and thinking about the issues?
你们是否有被拍拍头的感觉，就像，哦，你们年轻人如此活跃并思考这些问题真是太好了？
Yeah.
是的。
Basically saying, you know, I was an activist in Divest in Apartheid.
基本上是说，你知道，我是种族隔离剥离运动的积极分子。
You know, I'm as liberal as they come.
你知道，我和他们一样自由。
And so I left feeling over the moon.
就这样我离开时欣喜若狂。
It was, this is going to be easier than I thought.
是的，这比我想象的要容易。
We're going to divest within a month.
我们将在一个月内撤资。
[LAUGHS] And it's easy as that.
[笑]就这么简单。
And so I waited to hear back from them, and I waited and I waited.
所以我等着他们的回复，我等啊等。
And I eventually heard back.
我最终收到了回复。
They said well, we've looked into it, and it's going to be basically impossible to do.
他们说好吧，我们已经调查过了，这基本上是不可能做到的。
RISD officials declined to be interviewed for this story.
罗德岛设计学院官员拒绝就此事接受采访。
But Emma says that their reason for saying no was this-- that RISD's $300 million endowment is managed by a firm that mixes it in with other universities' money.
但艾玛说，他们拒绝的理由是——罗德岛设计学院 3 亿美元的捐赠基金由一家公司管理，该公司将其与其他大学的资金混合在一起。
Emma said she was told there was no way to separate out the RISD money from the rest and just sell off RISD's fossil fuel stock.
艾玛说，她被告知没有办法将罗德岛设计学院的资金与其他资金分开，只能出售罗德岛设计学院的化石燃料库存。
This kind of response is something that lots of kids are hearing around the country, that stocks can't be sold off for some technical reason, or that doing so might put the school's finances at risk.
全国各地的许多孩子都听到这样的回应，即出于某种技术原因不能出售股票，或者这样做可能会使学校的财务面临风险。
This was said to divestment activists in the '80s as well.
八十年代的撤资积极分子也曾说过这样的话。
Emma went to New York City and met directly with the firm that tells RISD how to invest its money, a firm called Summit Rock.
艾玛去了纽约，直接会见了一家告诉罗德岛设计学院如何投资资金的公司，一家名为 Summit Rock 的公司。
She says she was told, basically, RISD is the client.
她说她被告知，基本上，罗德岛设计学院就是客户。
If RISD wants to divest, they'd do it.
如果罗德岛设计学院想剥离，他们就会这么做。
Summit Rock declined to comment for this story.
Summit Rock 拒绝对此事发表评论。
As for the financial risk, in RISD's case, fossil fuel companies are just a tiny part of their portfolio, which organizers around the country say is not unusual at schools.
至于财务风险，就罗德岛设计学院而言，化石燃料公司只是其投资组合的一小部分，全国各地的组织者表示，这在学校并不罕见。
Emma was told it was just $9 million of the $300 million.
艾玛被告知这只是 3 亿美元中的 900 万美元。
Which means that even if RISD loses a little money by switching to other investments-- makes, for example, 1% less per year off the investment than they do now-- their total loss will be--
这意味着，即使罗德岛设计学院因转向其他投资而损失一点钱——例如，每年的投资收益比现在少 1%——他们的总损失将是——
$90,000.
90,000 美元。
Which is the equivalent of two years of my tuition.
这相当于我两年的学费。
And so with low financial risk at a school full of liberals, with former divestment activists in a number of key decision-making spots, at a school that prides itself on being iconoclastic and an innovator-- even here, in a situation that seems like it could not be friendlier, Emma still could not get traction.
因此，在一所充满自由主义者的学校，在许多关键决策领域都有前撤资活动人士的学校，在一所以打破传统和创新者而自豪的学校，尽管财务风险很低，但即使在这里，在一种似乎再友好不过的情况下，艾玛仍然无法获得吸引力。
What this says about McKibben's movement is that it will take time to percolate.
这说明麦基本的运动需要时间才能渗透。
And one of the big obstacles I haven't even mentioned yet is student apathy.
我还没有提到的最大障碍之一是学生的冷漠。
Yes, there are a handful of campuses with super-motivated, super-political kids who love being politically active.
是的，有一些校园里有超级积极主动、超级政治的孩子，他们喜欢积极参与政治活动。
But many schools are like RISD, where it's hard to get most of the students very worked up about divesting from fossil fuels.
但许多学校都像罗德岛设计学院一样，很难让大多数学生对放弃化石燃料感到非常兴奋。
Only half the students at the school where Bill McKibben teaches, Middlebury College, wanted divestment in a big student survey.
在比尔·麦基本任教的明德学院 (Middlebury College) 的一项大型学生调查中，只有一半的学生希望撤资。
What happened next as RISD was a weird turn of events that is probably not typical of what is happening around the country.
接下来在罗德岛设计学院发生的事情是一个奇怪的转折，这可能在全国各地发生的事情中并不常见。
Emma says that one of the people who runs the school, a high-level person who would be in on any divestment discussions, told her, if you want us to say yes, you have to make us.
艾玛说，学校的一位管理者、一位参与任何撤资讨论的高层人士告诉她，如果你想让我们答应，你就必须让我们这么做。
Make us pay attention to you.
让我们关注你。
Rock the boat.
摇动小船。
What did that mean?
那是什么意思？
Emma Beede That I needed to amp things up.
艾玛·比德 我需要加强一些事情。
Why am I so afraid of pissing people off?
为什么我这么害怕得罪别人？
Why am I so afraid of causing trouble?
为什么我这么害怕惹麻烦？
You need to cause trouble.
你需要制造麻烦。
You need to make us pay attention to you.
你需要让我们关注你。
You need to make us talk about divestment.
你需要让我们谈论撤资的问题。
You need to make us divest.
你需要让我们撤资。
So she made a plan to make everybody pay attention-- the board, her fellow students.
所以她制定了一个计划，让每个人都关注——董事会、她的同学。
They would occupy the university president's office.
他们将占据大学校长办公室。
They arrived there first thing on a Monday morning.
他们在周一早上第一件事就到达了那里。
Is John Maeda here?
约翰·前田在吗？
Marina Mihalakis He's not.
玛丽娜·米哈拉基斯 他不是。
With the president not there, Emma reads the statement that they had prepared to the president's assistant, Marina Mihalakis, who crosses her arms and waits patiently for it to end.
由于总统不在，艾玛向总统助理玛丽娜·米哈拉基斯宣读了他们准备的声明，后者交叉双臂，耐心等待声明结束。
We will stay until President John Maeda and Board Chair Michael Spalter commit to presenting the case for divestment at the board of trustees meeting in May.
我们将留下来，直到总裁 John Maeda 和董事会主席 Michael Spalter 承诺在 5 月份的董事会会议上提出撤资案。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Oh, stay-- you mean you're going to sit in my office?
哦，留下来——你是说你要坐在我的办公室里？
How are you?
你好吗？
Marina Mihalakis I'm fine.
玛丽娜·米哈拉基斯 我很好。
I have a lot of work to do.
我有很多工作要做。
I hope you don't mind if I just continue working.
我希望你不介意我继续工作。
This is nothing if not a remarkably polite, respectful, and well-mannered sit-in.
如果这不是一次非常有礼貌、尊重和有礼貌的静坐，那就没什么了不起。
11 students plop themselves around the edges of the room and try not to make much noise, so that normal business can continue in the office.
11 名学生围坐在房间的边缘，尽量不要发出太大的噪音，以便办公室可以继续正常的工作。
RISD's president doesn't show up until the next day, so they sleep there that night.
罗德岛设计学院的校长直到第二天才出现，所以那天晚上他们就睡在那里。
The next day, the school gives Emma what she wanted.
第二天，学校给了艾玛她想要的东西。
They agreed to put divestment on the agenda of the next board meeting.
他们同意将撤资列入下次董事会会议的议程。
On the phone telling me this, she was thrilled.
她在电话中告诉我这件事，她很兴奋。
She declared victory.
她宣布胜利。
But there was another victory, just as important, that happened outside the administration building while Emma an the others were upstairs.
但同样重要的是，当艾玛和其他人在楼上时，在行政大楼外发生了另一场胜利。
[CHEERING] It was easily 150 kids, and maybe a lot more.
[欢呼] 轻松地有 150 个孩子，甚至可能更多。
Color-coordinated banners that Emma's team had made were hanging from most of the school's big buildings-- it's art school, after all.
艾玛团队制作的颜色协调的横幅悬挂在学校大部分大型建筑上——毕竟这是一所艺术学校。
People came out of their studios to see what was going on.
人们从工作室里出来看看发生了什么事。
And suddenly, climate change was the thing that everybody was talking about.
突然间，气候变化成为每个人都在谈论的话题。
Which is the other part of McKibben's plan-- to get everybody talking.
这是麦基本计划的另一部分——让每个人都畅所欲言。
There couldn't have ever been more than 2% or 3% of Americans who actually were physically involved in the civil rights movement, right?
实际参与民权运动的美国人不可能超过 2% 或 3%，对吗？
Marching, or sitting in, or whatever.
行军，或静坐，或其他什么。
But watching those who were, seeing it, was enough to change the mood of the country.
但观察那些在场的人，看到它，就足以改变这个国家的情绪。
If McKibben's plan works, divestment is just a means to a greater end.
如果麦基本的计划成功，撤资只是实现更大目标的一种手段。
To shift the politics of climate change by putting the issue on the front burner, by nudging people off the sidelines and into a political fight.
通过将气候变化问题放在首要位置，推动人们远离旁观并投入政治斗争，来改变气候变化的政治。
For so long now, the climate debate in our country has been a tired standoff between believers and doubters.
长期以来，我国的气候辩论一直是信徒和怀疑者之间的僵局。
If nothing else, if McKibben's successful, the discussion will pop out of that rut, and soon, we will all be arguing with each other about whether or not the oil companies are going to destroy the world.
如果不出意外的话，如果麦基本成功了，讨论就会跳出常规，很快，我们就会互相争论石油公司是否会毁灭世界。
If enough people get engaged with that fight, and the financial markets come to believe that Exxon will never be allowed to pump all the oil that it has found, it could drive Exxon's stock price down.
如果有足够多的人参与这场斗争，并且金融市场开始相信埃克森美孚将永远不会被允许开采其发现的所有石油，这可能会导致埃克森美孚的股价下跌。
But even if it doesn't, if enough people are yelling about all this, other things might become possible.
但即使没有，如果有足够多的人对这一切大喊大叫，其他事情也可能成为可能。
A carbon tax, or any of the other proposals that would deal with climate change on more of an urgent, wartime footing.
碳税或任何其他在更紧急的战时基础上应对气候变化的提案。
So I don't know, what do you guys think?
所以不知道大家觉得怎么样？
Does it feel like there's not enough in the background to back up what Bill's saying?
是否感觉没有足够的背景来支持比尔所说的？
There was a moment back in October when I visited McKibben and his team of organizers, before all this began, in Vermont.
十月份的某个时刻，在这一切开始之前，我在佛蒙特州拜访了麦基本和他的组织者团队。
There were 14 of them, nearly all of them in their 20s, sitting around a big room, typing on laptops.
他们一共有 14 个人，几乎都是 20 多岁，坐在一个大房间里，在笔记本电脑上打字。
And watching them, the thought occurred to me-- if they're right, and they pull this off, then this is a historic group.
看着他们，我突然想到——如果他们是对的，并且他们成功了，那么这就是一个历史性的团体。
Right?
正确的？
These are Freedom Riders.
这些是自由骑士。
They're the early suffragettes.
他们是早期的妇女参政论者。
Which, of course, is such a long shot, it's such a crazy long shot, they would have to go viral in a way that few things ever go viral.
当然，这是一个非常遥远的机会，这是一个疯狂的遥远的机会，他们必须以一种几乎没有什么东西会像病毒一样传播的方式来传播。
It's such a crazy thought that they could pull it off, even to them.
这是一个如此疯狂的想法，他们可以实现这一目标，即使对他们来说也是如此。
They're the first to admit it.
他们是第一个承认这一点的人。
But they're running at it.
但他们正在努力。
Hard.
难的。
'Cause they're not sure what else to do.
因为他们不知道还能做什么。
Our program is produced today by Ben Calhoun and me, with Alex Blumberg, Sarah Koenig, Miki Meek, Jonathan Menjivar, Brian Reed, Robyn Semien, Alissa Shipp, Nancy Updike.
今天我们的节目由本·卡尔霍恩和我、亚历克斯·布隆伯格、莎拉·科尼格、米基·米克、乔纳森·门吉瓦尔、布莱恩·里德、罗宾·塞米恩、艾丽莎·希普、南希·厄普代克共同制作。
Our senior producer's Julie Snyder.
我们的高级制片人朱莉·斯奈德。
Production help from Phia Bennin.
菲亚·贝宁 (Phia Bennin) 提供制作帮助。
Seth Lind is our operations director.
塞思·林德 (Seth Lind) 是我们的运营总监。
Emily Condon's our production manager.
艾米丽·康登是我们的生产经理。
Elise Bergerson's our administrative assistant.
埃莉斯·伯格森是我们的行政助理。
Music help today from Damien Graef and Rob Geddes.
今天达米安·格雷夫 (Damien Graef) 和罗布·格迪斯 (Rob Geddes) 提供音乐帮助。
Special thanks today to Richard Harris, Bob Massie, Eric Klinenberg and Adam Murphree at NYU, David Kestenbaum, Robert Krulwich, Michelle Harris, and Julie Beer.
今天特别感谢纽约大学的 Richard Harris、Bob Massie、Eric Klinenberg 和 Adam Murphree、David Kestenbaum、Robert Krulwich、Michelle Harris 和 Julie Beer。
Our website, thisamericanlife.org.
我们的网站 thisamericanlife.org。
This American Life is distributed by Public Radio International.
《美国生活》由国际公共广播电台发行。
Julie Kumari Drapkin's reporting project, iSeeChange, is part of AIR's nationwide production, Localore, which is funded by The Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
Julie Kumari Drapkin 的报道项目 iSeeChange 是 AIR 全国制作 Localore 的一部分，该项目由公共广播公司资助。
WBEZ management oversight for our show by our boss, Mr. Torey Malatia.
我们的老板 Torey Malatia 先生对我们的演出进行 WBEZ 管理监督。
You know, it's weird.
你知道，这很奇怪。
Every week after he hears our program, he finds me in the recording booth and says the same thing.
每周他听完我们的节目后，都会在录音室找到我，并说同样的话。
I oughta take that damned recorder and smash it to smithereens.
我应该拿起那台该死的录音机，把它砸成碎片。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Back next week with more stories of This American Life.
下周我们将带来更多《美国生活》的故事。
[MUSIC - "TOO HOT TO HANDLE" BY HEATWAVE]
[音乐 - HEATWAVE 的“太热了”]
This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.
《This American Life》与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。