455: Continental Breakup - This American Life
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00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #455 | January 20, 2012 455: Continental Breakup Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.
00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 455 集 | 2012 年 1 月 20 日 455：大陆分裂 注：《美国生活》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。
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如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。
Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.
文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。
Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.
请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。
Prologue Ira Glass I think at this point even the most casual news consumer has run across a lot of stories like this--
序言 Ira Glass 我认为，即使是最随意的新闻消费者也已经读过很多这样的故事——
The focus of the European debt crisis move today--
今日欧债危机焦点走向——
Time is running out.
时间已经不多了。
Here's what would happen if the Eurozone fails--
如果欧元区失败，将会发生以下情况——
Tomorrow there will be a unified statement of support for these European countries to come up with--
明天将会有一个统一的声明支持这些欧洲国家提出——
The crisis ongoing in Europe setting the stage for investing--
欧洲持续的危机为投资奠定了基础——
So I am joined now here in the studio with somebody who actually understands economics and knows about this kind of thing-- Alex Blumberg with the Planet Money team and our staff.
因此，我现在在工作室里与一位真正了解经济学并了解此类事物的人一起加入了——亚历克斯·布隆伯格（Alex Blumberg）以及 Planet Money 团队和我们的员工。
Hi, Alex.
嗨，亚历克斯。
Hey, how's it going?
嘿，怎么样？
Ira Glass Good.
艾拉·格拉斯 好。
So Alex, I think I speak for all Americans when I ask you this question and that is, do I have to care about this?
所以亚历克斯，当我问你这个问题时，我想我代表所有美国人，那就是，我必须关心这个吗？
I am so glad you asked.
我很高兴你问了。
I'm so glad you asked that question.
我很高兴你问这个问题。
Because we at Planet Money have been obsessed with Europe for the last couple of--
因为我们 Planet Money 在过去的几年里一直对欧洲着迷——
Yes or no. Alex Blumberg The short answer is yes, you have to care.
是或否。 Alex Blumberg 简短的回答是肯定的，你必须关心。
It's going to affect your life in some way.
它会以某种方式影响你的生活。
It might actually even cause the global economy to collapse, in which case you'll really want to know the story.
它实际上甚至可能导致全球经济崩溃，在这种情况下你真的很想知道这个故事。
But even if that doesn't happen, it is just a fascinating tale.
但即使这没有发生，这也只是一个引人入胜的故事。
You hear a report on the news it's all interest rates, blah blah blah, European leaders, blah blah blah.
你会听到新闻报道，都是利率，等等，欧洲领导人，等等。
But underneath all that there is passion, drama, soaring hopes, crushed dreams.
但在这一切的背后，隐藏着激情、戏剧性、高涨的希望、破碎的梦想。
It's all there hidden in the news that you're hearing.
这一切都隐藏在您听到的新闻中。
Really?
真的吗？
Alex Blumberg You don't need to care.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格 你不需要关心。
You want to care.
你想要关心。
Well that's very good news because we have set aside the entire hour of the program today for you to tell that story.
嗯，这是一个非常好的消息，因为我们今天留出了整整一个小时的时间来让您讲述这个故事。
From WBEZ Chicago, it's This American Life, distributed by Public Radio International.
这是来自芝加哥 WBEZ 的《This American Life》，由国际公共广播电台发行。
Alex, I'm just going to hand they show over to you.
亚历克斯，我要把它们交给你。
All right and I say like, from WBEZ Chicago, that thing?
好吧，我说的是，来自芝加哥 WBEZ 的那个东西？
No, I just said that.
不，我只是这么说。
So you don't have to say that.
所以你不必这么说。
So I don't have to say that?
那我就不用说了？
Ira Glass So you can just proceed.
Ira Glass 所以你可以继续了。
Have you heard this show before?
你以前听过这个节目吗？
All right, I'll say-- you can say today's program.
好吧，我会说——你可以说今天的节目。
Today's program, Continental Breakup.
今天的节目，大陆分裂。
This hour we're going to hear the surprising, dramatic story behind the crisis currently unfolding in Europe.
这一小时我们将听到欧洲当前正在展开的危机背后令人惊讶的戏剧性故事。
I'm sorry.
对不起。
Do I say, stay with us?
我可以说，留在我们身边吗？
You say with us at some point before you go--
你在走之前的某个时候说和我们一起——
I say it right there.
我就在那里说。
So say it.
所以说吧。
Say it!
说吧！
Stay with us.
留在我们身边。
Act One: Currency of Dreams Alex Blumberg Act One, Currency of Dreams.
第一幕：梦想的货币 Alex Blumberg 第一幕，梦想的货币。
The story of the crisis in Europe is really the story of the euro, that currency that almost all the countries in Europe share.
欧洲危机的故事实际上就是欧元的故事，欧元是几乎所有欧洲国家都通用的货币。
But think about that for a second.
但想一想。
Why did they ever do that?
他们为什么要这么做？
All these different countries with all these different cultures all deciding to share a currency.
所有这些具有不同文化的不同国家都决定共享一种货币。
Imagine if the United States, if Mexico and Canada, all agreed, hey you know what?
想象一下，如果美国、墨西哥和加拿大都同意，嘿你知道吗？
We're going to get rid of our own money and start a new money that we'll all share.
我们将摆脱我们自己的钱并开始我们共同分享的新钱。
Think about all the meetings that you would have to have, all the coordination, and for what?
想想你必须召开的所有会议、所有协调，以及为了什么？
We have our own money now.
我们现在有自己的钱了。
It works fine.
效果很好。
Why would we ever do that?
我们为什么要这么做？
Various Planet Money reporters have been making trips to Europe all year.
《星球金钱》的多位记者全年都在前往欧洲。
And you're going to be hearing from them over the course of this hour.
在这一小时内您将收到他们的来信。
Planet Money's Chana Joffe-Walt will be telling the bulk of this story.
Planet Money 的 Chana Joffe-Walt 将讲述这个故事的大部分内容。
And we're going to start at the beginning.
我们将从头开始。
We spent a lot of time talking to all sorts of people who were present at the creation of the euro, who dreamed and worked for years, decades, to make it happen.
我们花了很多时间与参与欧元创建的各种各样的人交谈，他们梦想并工作了数年、数十年，以实现这一目标。
Planet Money's Chana Joffe-Walt and our colleague, Zoe Chace, tell the story of why they wanted it to happen and what they chose to ignore along the way.
Planet Money 的 Chana Joffe-Walt 和我们的同事 Zoe Chace 讲述了他们为什么希望这一切发生以及他们在此过程中选择忽视的故事。
History takes a long time to unfold in Europe.
欧洲的历史需要很长时间才能展开。
And the euro was that way.
欧元就是这样。
There were no euro coins or bills until 2002.
2002 年之前还没有欧元硬币或纸币。
But the dream of the euro had been around for 150 years.
但欧元的梦想已经存在了 150 年。
But that's all it was-- a dream.
但这就是一切——一个梦。
The territory of artists, intellectuals, poets.
艺术家、知识分子、诗人的领地。
Yeah, Zoe read that thing from Victor Hugo, one of the very first calls for a united Europe.
是的，佐伊读到了维克多·雨果的那句话，这是最早呼吁欧洲统一的人之一。
OK, Victor Hugo, Les Mis , Hunchback of Notre Dame, here's an excerpt from a speech he gave in 1871.
好吧，维克多·雨果，《悲惨世界》，《巴黎圣母院的驼背》，这是他 1871 年演讲的摘录。
And keep in mind the actual Europe at this time is fighting a brutal war, tearing itself to pieces.
请记住，此时的欧洲实际上正在打一场残酷的战争，将自己撕成碎片。
OK here it is.
好的，就在这里。
"And we shall hear France cry out, it's my turn Germany, here I am.
“我们将听到法国喊叫，轮到我了，德国，我来了。
Am I your enemy?
我是你的敌人吗？
No. I am your sister." And then he goes on to say, "Let us be the same republic, let us be the United States of Europe, let us be the continental federation.
不，我是你妹妹。”然后他接着说：“让我们成为同一个共和国，让我们成为欧洲合众国，让我们成为大陆联邦。
Let us be European liberty.
让我们成为欧洲自由。
Let us be universal peace."
让我们实现普遍和平。”
It's nice, right?
很好，对吧？
I keep thinking that the euro for all these years is kind of like Esperanto.
我一直认为这些年来欧元有点像世界语。
You remember Esperanto, the international language?
您还记得国际语言世界语吗？
It'd be really easy to learn.
这真的很容易学。
We'd all pick it up and speak one tongue across borders and then there'd be international peace and understanding.
我们都会拿起它并跨越国界说同一种语言，然后就会有国际和平与理解。
The dream of the euro was kind of like that.
欧元的梦想有点像这样。
But let me ask you, do you speak Esperanto today?
但我问你，你今天说世界语吗？
No. Do nearly 332 million people carry euros in their pockets?
没有。近 3.32 亿人的口袋里有欧元吗？
Yes.
是的。
So what happened?
那么发生了什么？
This is Pascale Lamy, the right-hand man to the father of the euro, Jacques Delors.
这是帕斯卡尔·拉米，欧元之父雅克·德洛尔的得力助手。
Delors is old now.
德洛尔现在已经老了。
He's too old to give interviews.
他太老了，不能接受采访。
But Lamy was there at the key turning point when the euro stopped being a quixotic dream and started looking like a real necessity.
但当欧元不再是一个堂吉诃德式的梦想而开始看起来像一个真正的必需品时，拉米就在关键的转折点上。
It's just after the Second World War that the notion of integrating Europe politically became a serious political idea.
第二次世界大战结束后，欧洲政治一体化的概念才成为一个严肃的政治想法。
Before that it had been dreams.
在此之前，一切都是梦想。
But after World War II it was being talked about in two of Europe's most powerful nations-- in France by people like Lamy-- he went on to head the World Trade Organization.
但第二次世界大战后，欧洲两个最强大的国家——法国的拉米这样的人——都在谈论这个话题——他后来担任了世界贸易组织的负责人。
And in Germany by people like Helmut Schlesinger, former president of the German Central Bank.
在德国，还有德国中央银行前行长赫尔穆特·施莱辛格（Helmut Schlesinger）这样的人。
One cannot forget that the whole strength of having a European Union is based on the fact that we never want to have war between our countries, which we have had so much and so terrible.
人们不能忘记，欧盟的全部力量是基于这样一个事实：我们绝不希望我们的国家之间发生战争，而我们已经经历了如此多、如此可怕的战争。
Germany no longer wanted to dominate Europe.
德国不再想主宰欧洲。
It wanted the opposite, actually.
事实上，它想要相反的东西。
It wanted to be a team player, a peacemaker.
它想成为一名团队合作者、一名和平缔造者。
Germany wanted to be the nicest guy at the European table.
德国想成为欧洲餐桌上最好的人。
Of course, France didn't want Germany to dominate either.
当然，法国也不希望德国称霸。
Germany would always be bigger, more powerful.
德国将永远变得更大、更强大。
So France wanted to link its economy to the German economy.
因此，法国希望将其经济与德国经济联系起来。
That way Germany's strength would be France's strength.
这样德国的力量就是法国的力量。
And also, a united Europe would be big enough and rich enough to become the world's other superpower and rival the United States, which both countries liked.
而且，一个统一的欧洲将足够大、足够富有，足以成为世界上另一个超级大国并与美国竞争，这是两国都喜欢的。
All this was making a once-poetic dream much more appealing.
所有这一切都让曾经充满诗意的梦想变得更加有吸引力。
But of course there were problems.
但当然也有问题。
Two main problems-- one German, one French.
两个主要问题——一个是德国问题，一个是法国问题。
For the Germans, the whole sharing a currency thing made them very nervous.
对于德国人来说，共享货币这件事让他们非常紧张。
They worried it would lead to inflation.
他们担心这会导致通货膨胀。
And Germans are really scared of inflation.
德国人真的很害怕通货膨胀。
It calls up a bad memory-- the hyperinflation of the 1920s, the worst bout of hyperinflation in recent history.
它唤起了一段糟糕的记忆——20 年代的恶性通货膨胀，近代历史上最严重的一次恶性通货膨胀。
You may have heard about Germans carting their money around in wheelbarrows or using worthless German Marks to wallpaper their homes.
您可能听说过德国人用独轮手推车运来的钱，或者用毫无价值的德国马克来贴壁纸。
Many people in Germany feel like it was this experience that opened the door for the Nazis to come to power.
许多德国人认为正是这种经历为纳粹上台打开了大门。
I was reporting on the euro crisis in Berlin a couple months ago, and it shocked me how readily Germans would bring up the hyperinflation of the '20s when talking about their problems today.
几个月前，我在柏林报道了欧元危机，令我震惊的是，德国人今天在谈论他们的问题时，竟然如此轻易地提到了 20 年代的恶性通货膨胀。
Klaus Frankenberger is an editor at the German newspaper, the FAZ .
克劳斯·弗兰克伯格 (Klaus Frankenberger) 是德国《FAZ》报纸的编辑。
I mean Germany is always stability minded as you know.
我的意思是，正如你所知，德国始终注重稳定。
Order, stability, that's part of our collective DNA I would say.
我想说，秩序、稳定是我们集体 DNA 的一部分。
But these historical experience tell every policy maker, you don't mess around with inflation.
但这些历史经验告诉每一位政策制定者，不要在通胀问题上乱来。
Never.
绝不。
You don't do this.
你不这样做。
So Germany's position in the decades-long conversation that led to the euro was this-- if Europe wants to have a single currency, then we can't have all these separate governments out there.
因此，德国在长达数十年的欧元对话中的立场是——如果欧洲想要单一货币，那么我们就不能让所有这些独立的政府存在。
We need to become what Victor Hugo dreamed of, a United States of Europe.
我们需要成为维克多·雨果梦想的欧洲合众国。
But the Germans wanted this, not for poetry, but to keep inflation in check.
但德国人想要这样做，不是为了诗歌，而是为了控制通货膨胀。
They wanted an overarching authority that can say to individual countries, here is how to run your economy.
他们想要一个总体权威，可以对各个国家说，这是管理经济的方法。
Can you imagine France no longer its own country but a member state in a united federation of Europe?
你能想象法国不再是自己的国家，而是欧洲统一联邦的成员国吗？
Yeah, the French couldn't either.
是的，法国人也不能。
Again, here's Pascal Lamy.
帕斯卡·拉米再次报道。
The French like Europe if Europe is a big France.
如果欧洲是一个大法国，法国人就喜欢欧洲。
That is something that they drive, something that doesn't bite too much into the French sovereignty.
这是他们所推动的，不会对法国主权造成太大影响。
It took 30 years of discussion.
讨论花了30年。
So for 30 years the French and the German were saying to each other, the Germans were saying, well what about our Deutsche Mark and the French were saying, well what about our national identity?
因此，30年来，法国人和德国人互相交谈，德国人说，我们的德国马克怎么样，法国人说，我们的民族认同怎么样？
They were not always saying this.
他们并不总是这么说。
Because diplomats and governments don't always say what they have in mind.
因为外交官和政府并不总是说出他们的想法。
But that's what they had in mind.
但这就是他们的想法。
And it could have gone on like this, haggling back and forth over these issues, until this happened--
本来可以这样继续下去，在这些问题上来回讨价还价，直到发生这样的事——
From the Berlin Wall, take a look at them.
从柏林墙来看他们。
They've been there since last night.
他们从昨晚起就一直在那儿。
They are here in the thousands.
他们有数千人。
They are here in the 10s of thousands.
这里的数量有数十万。
Occasionally they shout, "Die Mauer muss weg," the wall must go.
有时他们会大喊“Die Mauer muss weg”，墙必须拆除。
In 1989 the wall separating East and West Germany was about to fall, and the Germans wanted French support for their reunification.
1989年，分隔东德和西德的墙即将倒塌，德国人希望法国支持他们的统一。
The rest of Europe was still a bit wary of Germany.
欧洲其他国家仍然对德国有些警惕。
When you plunge the world into one of the bloodiest wars in history it's kind of hard to live that down.
当你让世界陷入历史上最血腥的战争之一时，你很难平静下来。
And here, Germany was about to grow even larger.
在这里，德国即将变得更大。
So France said, OK, you can have our support if we all go on the euro.
所以法国说，好吧，如果我们都继续欧元，你就能得到我们的支持。
And the French got their way.
法国人如愿以偿。
There would be a common currency but no United States of Europe, as the Germans wanted.
将会有一种共同货币，但不会像德国人所希望的那样建立欧洲合众国。
What the Germans got were promises, promises that all the countries that used the same money would play by German rules.
德国人得到的是承诺，承诺所有使用同样资金的国家都会遵守德国规则。
They would guard against inflation.
他们会防范通货膨胀。
If a country wanted in on this common currency, the euro, they would have to borrow responsibly, be careful about their deficits.
如果一个国家想要使用欧元这一共同货币，他们就必须负责任地借贷，并小心其赤字。
In other words, to use the euro, the rest of Europe would need to make itself more German.
换句话说，要使用欧元，欧洲其他国家就需要让自己更加德国化。
The rest of Europe seemed very happy to do just that, even if for many countries in Europe, becoming more German was a completely unrealistic dream.
欧洲其他国家似乎很乐意这样做，即使对于许多欧洲国家来说，变得更加德国化是一个完全不切实际的梦想。
Nowhere more unrealistic than in Greece.
没有比希腊更不现实的地方了。
Our inflation rate was much higher than what was accepted, our budget deficit was much higher than what was accepted.
我们的通货膨胀率远高于可接受的水平，我们的预算赤字也远高于可接受的水平。
This is Loukas Tsoukalis with the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy in Athens.
我是雅典欧洲和外交政策希腊基金会的卢卡斯·苏卡利斯 (Loukas Tsoukalis)。
If you asked somebody in Europe whether Greece would join in the Eurozone, and you asked that question let's say, in early, mid-1990s, the answer would have been, you are mad.
如果你问欧洲某人希腊是否会加入欧元区，假设你在 20 世纪 90 年代初中期问了这个问题，答案会是，你疯了。
Because all Greek indicators were far off.
因为希腊的所有指标都相差甚远。
No chance in your lifetime.
这辈子都没有机会了。
When the European Statistical service produced graphs which showed all the different countries in terms of inflation rates, in terms of interest rates, very often Greece appeared in an insert because it couldn't fit in the graph.
当欧洲统计局制作图表显示所有不同国家的通货膨胀率和利率时，希腊经常出现在插入物中，因为它无法放入图表中。
Because if your inflation rate is 20, it doesn't fit in a normal graph.
因为如果您的通货膨胀率为 20，则它不适合正常图表。
So you either have a big graph but it doesn't show anything or you have a reasonable graph and then you have inserts.
因此，您要么有一个大图表，但它不显示任何内容，要么您有一个合理的图表，然后有插入内容。
Greece is over here?
希腊来了？
Loukas Tsoukalis Yeah, but Greece was not the only country, but it was one of the worst, and usually the worst.
Loukas Tsoukalis 是的，但希腊不是唯一的国家，但它是最糟糕的国家之一，而且通常是最糟糕的。
Still, Greece began a national campaign to make it in.
尽管如此，希腊还是开始了一场全国性的入围运动。
And other countries were doing the same.
其他国家也在做同样的事情。
Willingly, even if it means pain.
心甘情愿，即使这意味着痛苦。
For instance, Italy.
例如，意大利。
Their deficit was too high so the Italian prime minister at the time, Romano Prodi, said we need a new tax to cut it down.
他们的赤字太高，因此时任意大利总理罗马诺·普罗迪表示，我们需要征收新税来削减赤字。
If we want into the euro we have to pay.
如果我们想使用欧元，我们就必须付费。
Beppe Severgnini the Italian journalist, who was there at the time.
当时在场的意大利记者贝佩·塞维尼尼(Beppe Severgnini)。
And he talked to our colleague, Alex Blumberg.
他与我们的同事 Alex Blumberg 进行了交谈。
The mood was so enthusiastic that when Romano Prodi proposed a tax in order to sort out our public finances people-- would you believe that-- sort of put up the money.
人们的情绪如此热情，以至于当罗马诺·普罗迪提议征税以解决我们的公共财政问题时，人们——你相信吗——捐出了这笔钱。
And didn't-- not only didn't moan-- they said, well that's something we have to do.
他们并没有——不仅没有抱怨——他们说，这是我们必须做的事情。
We'll do it.
我们会做的。
And it was a kind of hefty tax.
这是一种高额税收。
I remember that.
我记得。
And what was the dream?
梦想是什么？
What were they paying for?
他们付钱的目的是什么？
In the minds of the average Italian, what did it represent, being part of the euro?
在普通意大利人的心目中，成为欧元的一部分代表着什么？
Well, to be in this sort premiere league of Europe, number one.
好吧，在欧洲这种顶级联赛中，排名第一。
Second, to have a stable currency, to be anchored the Deutsche Mark because it was obvious at the time-- and it still is obvious now-- that the engine for this all was Germany.
其次，拥有稳定的货币，锚定德国马克，因为当时很明显——现在仍然很明显——这一切的引擎是德国。
So to have the same currency as Germany is good for everybody.
因此，拥有与德国相同的货币对每个人都有好处。
So we want to be in that league and not in this sort of other league with weak local currencies.
因此，我们希望加入这个联盟，而不是当地货币疲软的其他联盟。
For Greece and Italy and Portugal and even for France, the euro meant a more stable, more prosperous, more German existence.
对于希腊、意大利、葡萄牙，甚至法国来说，欧元意味着更稳定、更繁荣、更德国化的存在。
And so in the years leading up to the euro, countries cut spending, reduced deficits.
因此，在欧元诞生之前的几年里，各国削减了支出，减少了赤字。
The numbers started to look, at least on paper, a lot more German.
至少从纸面上看，这些数字开始看起来更加德国化。
So much so that in some cases it was a little hard to believe.
如此之多以至于在某些情况下有点难以置信。
Cases like Greece.
像希腊这样的例子。
Zoe Chace In the late '90s all across Europe, finance ministers and their deputies would meet.
Zoe Chace 在 20 世纪 90 年代末，整个欧洲的财政部长及其副手都会开会。
They'd gather around tables in Brussels and Paris and Berlin with their rules in hand.
他们会聚集在布鲁塞尔、巴黎和柏林的桌子旁，手里拿着规则。
And the Greeks were there reporting their data that they'd made it.
希腊人在那里报告了他们成功的数据。
They'd met the criteria for euro membership.
他们符合欧元区成员资格的标准。
According to several people in these meetings, typically here is how it would go-- The Germans or the French would say, we have these rules.
根据参加这些会议的几位人士的说法，通常情况是这样的——德国人或法国人会说，我们有这些规则。
Every country has to meet the criteria.
每个国家都必须满足标准。
Yes, we do, the Greeks would respond.
是的，我们这样做，希腊人会回应。
There would be glances around the table.
桌子周围会有目光。
It sure is a good thing we have these rules, someone would say.
有人会说，我们有这些规则确实是一件好事。
More glances.
更多的目光。
Jacob Kirkegaard is at with the Peterson Institute for International Economics and he followed these meetings closely.
雅各布·柯克加德 (Jacob Kirkegaard) 在彼得森国际经济研究所工作，他密切关注这些会议。
The leaders of France and Germany and others couldn't really stand up and say, look our data are superior.
法国、德国和其他国家的领导人无法真正站起来说，看我们的数据更优越。
You are lying, basically, about these data.
基本上，你在这些数据上撒了谎。
And that's why we will not let you join the euro.
这就是为什么我们不会让你加入欧元区。
We all knew and we all know now and we all knew at the time that Greece was fudging its statistics.
我们都知道，现在我们都知道，当时我们都知道希腊在捏造其统计数据。
Pascal Lamy, right-hand man to the father of the euro, says it wasn't just the Greeks.
欧元之父的得力助手帕斯卡·拉米表示，这不仅仅是希腊人的问题。
People had questions about the Italians, other countries, too.
人们对意大利人和其他国家也有疑问。
But nobody actually said that.
但实际上没有人这么说。
Because that would have been too un-nice to some of their colleagues in the country.
因为这对他们国内的一些同事来说太不友善了。
There remains a level of diplomatic correctness and politeness.
仍然存在一定程度的外交正确性和礼貌。
So nobody challenged the Greeks because they were trying to be polite?
所以没有人挑战希腊人，因为他们试图保持礼貌？
Exactly it.
正是如此。
Chana Joffe-Walt That's so crazy.
查纳·乔夫-沃尔特 这太疯狂了。
It just sounds so crazy now.
现在听起来太疯狂了。
I mean, I understand at the time that might have made sense, but it sounds crazy now.
我的意思是，我知道当时这可能是有道理的，但现在听起来很疯狂。
Quite.
相当。
That's the definition.
这就是定义。
You just gave a very good definition of a mistake.
您刚刚对错误给出了很好的定义。
Something you believe is not a problem and then you realize, whooo, I shouldn't have done that.
你认为不是问题的事情然后你意识到，哇，我不应该那样做。
There was one other thing keeping all these countries around the table from voicing their objections-- money.
还有一件事阻止所有这些国家表达反对意见——金钱。
Remember the poorer countries in Europe wanted the benefit of a strong, stable German currency.
请记住，欧洲较贫穷的国家希望从强势、稳定的德国货币中获益。
And Germany wanted customers.
德国想要客户。
Germany makes cars, appliances, high-tech precision machines, lots of stuff.
德国生产汽车、电器、高科技精密机器等很多东西。
And hundreds of millions of Europeans with the same currency, a strong currency, meant hundreds of millions of customers that just got a lot richer.
数亿欧洲人使用相同的货币，即强势货币，意味着数亿客户变得更加富有。
The more regular people in Greece who could buy a Mercedes, the better for Germany.
能够购买奔驰的希腊普通民众越多，对德国来说就越好。
It would be better for everyone.
这对每个人来说都会更好。
Together, the feeling was, they'd all be more prosperous than they would be on their own.
给人的感觉是，他们在一起会比独自一人更加繁荣。
And so, a new currency was born.
于是，一种新的货币诞生了。
This brings us to Act Two, Eurotopia.
这就把我们带到了第二幕，欧洲乌托邦。
On January 1, 2002, the euro arrived.
2002年1月1日，欧元诞生。
The culmination of a 150-year-old dream.
150 年来梦想的巅峰。
The most ambitious financial and political change since money began.
自货币诞生以来最雄心勃勃的金融和政治变革。
Or as the BBC put it--
或者正如 BBC 所说——
The most ambitious financial and political change since money began.
自货币诞生以来最雄心勃勃的金融和政治变革。
This is a BBC report from January 1, 2002, when, for the first time in modern history, a huge chunk of the continent of Europe would be using a single currency.
这是 2002 年 1 月 1 日 BBC 的报道，当时欧洲大陆的大部分地区将使用单一货币，这在现代历史上还是第一次。
You definitely get the sense that, for most Europeans, when they finally got the euro, it felt like something to celebrate.
你肯定能感觉到，对于大多数欧洲人来说，当他们最终获得欧元时，感觉像是一件值得庆祝的事情。
Midnight in Brussels, the moment a new currency was truly born.
布鲁塞尔的午夜，新货币真正诞生的那一刻。
Plenty were out to celebrate its arrival.
很多人都出来庆祝它的到来。
I think that it brings the countries-- the euro brings them closer together.
我认为欧元让各国更加紧密地联系在一起。
I think at the beginning there were many problems.
我认为一开始有很多问题。
But of course I think it's a good thing.
但我当然认为这是一件好事。
Tomorrow in Holland, we're going to use money we picked up in Belgium today.
明天在荷兰，我们将使用今天在比利时收到的钱。
And then we'll be in France again the day after, and again it'll be the same money.
然后第二天我们会再次来到法国，而且还是同样的钱。
It's magic.
这很神奇。
It's just got to be the way to go.
这就是必经之路。
People in the US, if we remember the debut of the euro at all, it's with this, oh yeah, that happened, sort of feeling.
美国人民，如果我们还记得欧元的首次亮相，那就是，哦，是的，那件事发生了，有点感觉。
It's hard to understand what the excitement was all about.
很难理解这种兴奋到底是什么。
But as Chana Joffe-Walt explains, in large parts of Europe the euro didn't just change the money, it transformed the way people lived.
但正如查纳·乔夫-沃尔特 (Chana Joffe-Walt) 解释的那样，在欧洲大部分地区，欧元不仅改变了货币，还改变了人们的生活方式。
A few months before the euro arrived in Greece, Theophilus Papakostakus was called into a meeting.
欧元抵达希腊前几个月，西奥菲勒斯·帕帕科斯塔克斯 (Theophilus Papakostakus) 被召集参加了一次会议。
Theophilus is a bank teller.
西奥菲勒斯是一名银行出纳员。
And this wasn't unusual.
这并不罕见。
The manager was often calling meetings, usually to talk about the overtime policy or some new paperwork requirements, but this was different.
经理经常召开会议，通常是讨论加班政策或一些新的文书工作要求，但这次不同。
So one day after work he got us together and, among other things, he said, you should forget what you know.
所以有一天下班后，他把我们聚在一起，他说，除其他外，你应该忘记你所知道的。
Soon enough you'll forget everything you know about banking.
很快你就会忘记你所知道的关于银行业的一切。
Everything is going to be all new.
一切都将焕然一新。
Soon it's going to be like a supermarket.
很快它就会像超市一样。
People will come in and buy all kind of different things.
人们会进来购买各种不同的东西。
Banking is not going to be only deposit, saving money.
银行业务不仅仅是存款、存钱。
It's going to be retail.
它将是零售的。
I specifically remember that expression, retail banking.
我特别记得这个词，零售银行业务。
And when he said that, what did you think?
当他这么说时，你怎么想？
Well, we laughed.
嗯，我们笑了。
I said, yeah, sure.
我说，是的，当然。
I'm sure, yeah.
我确定，是的。
Well, it did happen.
嗯，它确实发生了。
Every morning after that, Theophilus would come into work, turn on his computer, and the interest rate on consumer loans would be lower.
此后每天早上，提奥菲勒斯都会上班，打开电脑，消费贷款的利率就会降低。
18% then 15%, 12%, 6%, 4%.
18% 然后 15%、12%、6%、4%。
Now the reasons why this was happening, we'll get to in a minute.
现在我们稍后会讨论发生这种情况的原因。
I first just want to talk about the sheer fact that it was happening and what that fact meant.
我首先只想谈谈它正在发生的纯粹事实以及该事实意味着什么。
Imagine if your mortgage rate went from 18% to 4%.
想象一下，如果您的抵押贷款利率从 18% 升至 4%。
Or the rate that you could get on a car loan.
或者您可以获得汽车贷款的利率。
Most people in Greece never borrowed money to pay for anything before, and now they had people essentially throwing money at them.
大多数希腊人以前从未借钱来支付任何费用，而现在人们基本上向他们扔钱。
Theophilus bought two cars.
西奥菲勒斯买了两辆车。
His neighbors bought a vacation home.
他的邻居买了一套度假屋。
The neighbors on the other side of the street took out a loan for their vacation and then refinanced that loan.
街道另一边的邻居为度假申请了一笔贷款，然后对该贷款进行了再融资。
Really, everyone I met in Greece has a story like this.
真的，我在希腊遇到的每个人都有这样的故事。
My cab driver, Adonis Barkolis, in Athens.
我在雅典的出租车司机阿多尼斯·巴科利斯 (Adonis Barkolis)。
I used to own a Toyota, and in 2004 I bought this.
我曾经拥有一辆丰田汽车，2004 年我买了这辆。
What's this?
这是什么？
Adonis Barkolis A Mercedes.
阿多尼斯·巴科利斯 梅赛德斯。
A black Mercedes.
一辆黑色奔驰。
The bar that I went to used to have just two restaurants.
我去的酒吧以前只有两家餐厅。
In 2003 it became an industrial brewery, too.
2003年，它也成为一家工业啤酒厂。
Well for us, this is fantastic.
对我们来说，这太棒了。
2002, when we started the building our industrial brewery, in total we have invested about 7 million euro, which is close to $10 million, which is a big amount of money for our company.
2002年，当我们开始建设工业啤酒厂时，我们总共投资了约700万欧元，接近1000万美元，这对我们公司来说是一笔巨款。
And this is when we get out of the banks and the interest is very good.
当我们离开银行时，利息非常好。
We were able to borrow money at 4.5%, which is excellent.
我们能够以 4.5% 的利率借到钱，这非常好。
And it wasn't just private citizens taking advantage of the low rates.
从低利率中获益的不仅仅是普通公民。
Loukas Tsoukalis at the Hellenic Foundation says most importantly the Greek government got in on the action.
希腊基金会的卢卡斯·苏卡利斯 (Loukas Tsoukalis) 表示，最重要的是，希腊政府参与了这一行动。
Mainly by returning to a favorite practice of Greek politicians, addressing unemployment by hiring people.
主要是回到希腊政客最喜欢的做法，通过雇用人员来解决失业问题。
In the last two years they employed a large number of people in the Greek public sector.
在过去两年中，他们在希腊公共部门雇用了大量人员。
So they added to the salary bill.
所以他们增加了工资单。
What's the craziest thing you remember hearing of?
你记得听过的最疯狂的事情是什么？
I think there's, for example, an organization which was set up for the drying up of a lake.
例如，我认为有一个组织是为了使湖泊干涸而成立的。
I think the lake has been dried up for the last 30 years, but the organization is still there.
我认为这个湖已经干涸了30年，但组织仍然存在。
So there are a few employees who are paid for something that is not even remembered in a history book.
因此，有一些员工的报酬甚至没有被载入史册。
The euro had arrived.
欧元已经到来。
And cheap money was flowing into countries all over Europe-- Ireland, Portugal, Spain.
廉价资金流入欧洲各国——爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙。
There was money for projects which never would have gotten funded before.
以前从未获得资助的项目有了资金。
Luis Garicano is a Spanish economist and he told me about this tiny little bank that funded a big project in La Mancha, Spain.
路易斯·加里卡诺 (Luis Garicano) 是一位西班牙经济学家，他向我介绍了这家为西班牙拉曼恰的一个大项目提供资金的小银行。
Your listeners will know La Mancha as the area where Don Quixote lived.
您的听众会知道拉曼恰是堂吉诃德居住的地区。
And it's as empty as it was in the time of Don Quixote.
它和堂吉诃德时代一样空荡荡。
It's a big plain.
这是一大片平原。
Imagine it as completely empty.
想象它完全是空的。
And in the middle of that plane there is an airport, to which nobody wants to fly.
在那架飞机的中间有一个机场，没有人愿意飞往那里。
Is that airport open now?
那个机场现在开放吗？
Luis Garicano It's a potato field.
路易斯·加里卡诺 这是一片马铃薯田。
I mean, it's really only suitable for growing potatoes.
我的意思是，它真的只适合种植土豆。
That terrain is really never going to be a commercial airport.
该地形实际上永远不会成为商业机场。
And yet, there is an airport.
然而，有一个机场。
The local people wanted one, and the euro gave it to them.
当地人想要一个，欧元就给了他们。
This is Claudia Farmier back in Greece.
这是回到希腊的克劳迪娅·法米尔。
I met her at a brunch up north, actually at the bank teller's house, Theophilus.
我在北方的一次早午餐上遇见了她，实际上是在银行出纳员西奥菲勒斯的家里。
Remember the guy was called into the meeting, pre-euro?
还记得欧元前那个人被叫去参加会议吗？
He invited me to his house.
他邀请我去他家。
And there, nearly a decade after the euro had arrived, his friends are sitting around just reviewing how everything did really change.
欧元问世近十年后，他的朋友们正坐在一起回顾一切是如何真正发生变化的。
One day everybody thinks, this is paradise, let's go get everything.
有一天，每个人都会想，这就是天堂，我们去得到一切吧。
That's what happened.
这就是发生的事情。
But why now?
但为什么现在呢？
But why, one year do you not have any money to buy cars and vacations and homes and then the next year you have everything you could possibly want?
但为什么，有一年你没有钱买汽车、度假和房子，但第二年你就拥有了你可能想要的一切？
Maybe he knows.
也许他知道。
He was working in the bank.
他当时在银行工作。
I don't know where the money comes from.
我不知道钱从哪里来。
Do you know?
你知道吗？
Theophilus Papakostakus Ehhh-- from, I don't know.
Theophilus Papakostakus 嗯——来自，我不知道。
I don't know.
我不知道。
Hey, Chana?
嘿，查娜？
Chana Joffe-Walt So this is Adam Davidson with Planet Money .
Chana Joffe-Walt 这是 Planet Money 的 Adam Davidson。
I think I can help you.
我想我可以帮助你。
Because I actually do know who lent all that money to Greece and all the other people in Europe.
因为我确实知道是谁把所有这些钱借给了希腊和欧洲所有其他国家。
I actually was in the room where they did it.
我实际上就在他们做这件事的房间里。
The room is in Southern California, in Newport Beach.
该房间位于南加州的纽波特海滩。
It's this huge room.
就是这个巨大的房间。
And it's all these hundreds of people sitting at these long tables, each of them is looking at three or four computer screens-- one guy had six computer screens-- with all these numbers flashing on them.
成百上千的人坐在这些长桌旁，每个人都看着三四个电脑屏幕——一个人有六个电脑屏幕——所有这些数字都在他们身上闪烁。
Although when you're there, if you closed your eyes you'd have no idea that there were that many people there.
虽然当你在那里的时候，如果你闭上眼睛，你根本不知道那里有那么多人。
This is the quietest room of 200 people I've ever been in.
这是我住过的 200 人中最安静的一个房间。
It's a little noisier than usual right now.
现在比平时稍微吵闹一点。
This is the trading floor of a company called PIMCO.
这是一家名为PIMCO的公司的交易大厅。
And I would guess most of our listeners have not heard of PIMCO, but I can guarantee that every finance minister of every country in the world definitely has.
我猜我们大多数听众都没有听说过太平洋投资管理公司，但我可以保证世界上每个国家的财政部长都肯定听说过。
Because PIMCO is one of the largest bond fund managers in the world.
因为PIMCO是全球最大的债券基金管理公司之一。
That means they are one of the biggest lenders of money to governments all over the world.
这意味着它们是世界各国政府最大的贷款人之一。
And Adam, let me just jump in for people who need a refresher.
亚当，让我来帮助那些需要复习一下的人。
Buying a bond is the same as lending someone money.
购买债券与借钱给别人是一样的。
You buy a bond for $1 million from someone with the promise that they're going to pay you back in full, with interest, over some period of time.
您以 100 万美元的价格从某人那里购买了一张债券，并承诺他们将在一段时间内全额偿还您并附带利息。
So buying a Greek bond for $1 million, that's the same exact thing as loaning $1 million to the Greek government.
因此，以 100 万美元购买希腊债券，与向希腊政府贷款 100 万美元是完全相同的。
Yeah, it's like an IOU.
是的，就像一张欠条。
And all these people with all their computer screens spend their time figuring out, well which bonds should we buy?
所有这些拿着电脑屏幕的人都花时间思考，我们应该购买哪些债券？
Which governments, and also companies, should we lend money to?
我们应该向哪些政府和公司借钱？
Now the people at PIMCO, the people at these desks, it's not their money.
现在，太平洋投资管理公司的员工，这些办公桌上的员工，这不是他们的钱。
They're watching over it for a while.
他们正在监视它一段时间。
They're money managers, managing the money for insurance companies, pension funds.
他们是资金管理者，为保险公司、养老基金管理资金。
If you have a retirement account, they might be managing your money.
如果您有退休账户，他们可能会管理您的资金。
They manage savings for central banks, universities, basically anybody with a huge amount of cash sitting around.
他们为中央银行、大学以及任何拥有大量现金的人管理储蓄。
And if you add up all the money they manage, it's over a trillion dollars.
如果把他们管理的所有资金加起来，就超过一万亿美元。
And they don't want to lose any of it.
他们不想失去任何一个。
They are looking for safe, sensible governments to lend money to.
他们正在寻找安全、明智的政府来借钱。
And for several years, after the turn of the millennium, one of the countries PIMCO decided, oh now they're safe, they're sensible, was Greece.
在世纪之交的几年里，太平洋投资管理公司认为希腊是其中一个国家，现在他们安全了，他们明智了。
Scott Mather is the guy who runs the global portfolio for PIMCO, and he says basically overnight Greece went from a bad bet to a sure thing.
斯科特·马瑟（Scott Mather）是太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）全球投资组合的负责人，他表示，基本上一夜之间，希腊就从一个糟糕的赌注变成了一个确定的赌注。
And the reason was the euro.
原因就是欧元。
Because of the euro, Scott and all the other money managers for other companies all over the world completely changed how they looked at Greece.
由于欧元的存在，斯科特和世界各地其他公司的所有其他资金经理彻底改变了他们对希腊的看法。
It was no longer just one small, poor dysfunctional country in a corner of Europe.
它不再只是欧洲一角的一个贫穷、功能失调的小国。
It was now a full member in good standing of one of the largest economies in the world.
它现在是世界上最大经济体之一的正式成员，享有良好的声誉。
The Eurozone.
欧元区。
The market was basically giving Greece a benefit of the doubt because they were a Eurozone member, part of the club, for the better part of a decade.
市场基本上让希腊受益匪浅，因为他们在过去十年的大部分时间里都是欧元区成员，是俱乐部的一部分。
Going on the euro for a lot of countries was like getting a rich uncle to cosign a mortgage or a credit card application.
对于许多国家来说，使用欧元就像让一个富有的叔叔来共同签署抵押贷款或信用卡申请。
Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, all were allowed to borrow a lot more money at much lower interest rates than they had been before.
希腊、西班牙、意大利、爱尔兰、葡萄牙都被允许以比以前低得多的利率借入更多资金。
And that, Chana, that is why your cab driver could get a cheap loan to buy a Mercedes.
查纳，这就是为什么你的出租车司机可以获得廉价贷款来购买奔驰。
It's why a sleepy bank in La Mancha, Spain, could build an airport.
这就是为什么西班牙拉曼恰一家沉睡的银行可以建造一座机场。
And it's why Irish banks grew several times larger than the entire economy of Ireland.
这就是为什么爱尔兰银行的增长规模是爱尔兰整个经济的几倍。
And then, quite suddenly, everything changed.
然后，突然之间，一切都改变了。
Yes.
是的。
It all changed one day when, Chana, your people in Greece made a shocking announcement.
有一天，当查纳（Chana），希腊人民发表了一项令人震惊的声明时，一切都改变了。
Well, Adam, your people in Newport Beach, that was quite a dramatic reaction, don't you think?
嗯，亚当，你在纽波特海滩的人，这是一个相当戏剧性的反应，你不觉得吗？
We'll get to that.
我们会解决这个问题的。
Act Three: Ooh, I Shouldn't Have Done That!
第三幕：哦，我不应该那样做！
Alex Blumberg Actually, guys this is a good place for me to step in and say we have arrived at Act Three.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格（Alex Blumberg） 实际上，伙计们，这是我介入并说我们已经到达第三幕的好地方。
And I'll let Pascal Lamy-- remember the right-hand man to the father of the euro?
我会让帕斯卡·拉米（Pascal Lamy）记住欧元之父的得力助手？
He's going to give you the act name.
他会给你演员的名字。
Act Three--
第三幕——
All right, take it away.
好吧，拿走吧。
Chana Joffe-Walt OK, first back to Athens, 2009, to the exact moment the crisis in Europe began.
Chana Joffe-Walt 好吧，首先回到雅典，2009 年，欧洲危机开始的那一刻。
What happens is in 2009 we have an election in October.
2009 年我们将在 10 月举行选举。
This is Loukas Tsoukalis again, with the Hellenic Foundation in Athens.
我又是卢卡斯·苏卡利斯 (Loukas Tsoukalis)，来自雅典的希腊基金会。
So Greece had been borrowing money from PIMCO in Newport Beach, and from others.
因此，希腊一直在向纽波特海滩的太平洋投资管理公司以及其他机构借钱。
And then there's an election in Athens, a new socialist government comes to power and says, Greek people, PIMCO, world, we have something to tell you.
然后雅典举行选举，新的社会主义政府上台并表示，希腊人民、太平洋投资管理公司、全世界，我们有话要告诉你们。
The people's government was claiming that the deficit of that year was running at something like 6%.
人民政府声称当年的赤字约为6%。
The socialists come to power and they announce a few days later what they have discovered is that the deficit is actually closer to 13% and not 6%.
社会主义者上台，几天后他们宣布，他们发现赤字实际上接近 13%，而不是 6%。
Adam, that's double what they had previously reported.
亚当，这是他们之前报告的两倍。
And all those bond traders staring at those computer screens at PIMCO's headquarters in Newport Beach, California, they had lent all this money to Greece based on very specific information.
所有那些盯着太平洋投资管理公司位于加利福尼亚州纽波特海滩总部电脑屏幕的债券交易员都知道，他们根据非常具体的信息将所有这些钱借给了希腊。
And suddenly that information turned out to be very, very wrong.
突然间，这些信息被证明是非常非常错误的。
And they wanted to know, how did this happen?
他们想知道，这是怎么发生的？
Yeah, and see, the thing is, it's a little hard to answer that question.
是的，你看，问题是，回答这个问题有点困难。
The Greek politicians explained, the last guys, they lied to you.
希腊政客解释说，最后的家伙，他们对你们撒了谎。
The deficit was never 6%.
赤字从未达到6%。
We are telling you the truth.
我们告诉你真相。
The truth is 13%.
事实是13%。
But when you ask people ask at the Government Statistics Office, the very people who come up with the numbers, people like Konstantinos Skordas, they say things like this.
但当你问政府统计办公室的人时，那些提出数字的人，比如康斯坦丁诺斯·斯科达斯，他们会说这样的话。
Everyone here in Greece said, what number is this?
希腊的每个人都说，这是什么数字？
It's outrageous.
太离谱了。
Instead of the Greek Statistics Office workers saying, we messed up.
希腊统计局工作人员并没有说，我们搞砸了。
Here's what went wrong.
这就是出了问题的地方。
Here exactly, is how we're going to win back your trust, make sure it never happens again.
这就是我们将如何赢回您的信任，确保这种情况不再发生。
No. Instead, the workers just kind of shrugged their shoulders.
不。相反，工人们只是耸了耸肩。
Nobody knows.
没有人知道。
Chana Joffe-Walt But you you guys work in the Statistics Office.
Chana Joffe-Walt 但是你们在统计办公室工作。
Yes.
是的。
Chana Joffe-Walt So I mean, it just seems like why would you-- you're the first people I would expect would know that, would not be surprised by that.
Chana Joffe-Walt 所以我的意思是，你似乎是我期望的第一批知道这一点的人，并且不会对此感到惊讶。
Because you work here.
因为你在这里工作。
The people here who were worked above this model said we did our job very correctly.
在这个模型上工作过的人说我们的工作做得非常正确。
Everybody said, look these guys clearly cannot be trusted.
大家都说，看这些家伙显然不可信。
This again, is Jacob Kirkegaard with the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
这又是彼得森国际经济研究所的雅各布·柯克加德（Jacob Kirkegaard）。
And he says, at this moment, the people who had lent money to the Greek government were shocked.
他说，此时此刻，那些借钱给希腊政府的人都感到震惊。
The situation is much, much worse than what they said just a few days ago.
现在的情况比他们前几天说的要糟糕得多。
The reality is much worse than I thought and therefore, I'm out of here.
现实比我想象的要糟糕得多，因此我要离开这里。
I'm out of here.
我要离开这里了
Chana, that is exactly what happened in Newport Beach around this time.
查纳，这正是此时在纽波特海滩发生的事情。
The bond guys at PIMPCO took action.
PIMPCO 的债券人员采取了行动。
Bond action.
债券行动。
In the end of last year we sold all our Greek, Portuguese and Spanish exposure.
去年年底，我们出售了所有希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙业务。
This is Mohamed El-Erian.
我是穆罕默德·埃里安。
He's the CEO of PIMCO and one of the most influential people in the world of bonds.
他是太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）的首席执行官，也是债券界最有影响力的人物之一。
When he starts selling all his Greek bonds, people all over the world pay attention.
当他开始出售所有希腊债券时，全世界的人们都在关注。
El-Erian must know something.
艾尔·埃里安一定知道些什么。
He's really smart.
他真的很聪明。
And then everywhere people are selling their Greek bonds.
然后各地的人们都在抛售希腊债券。
And what really struck me is how imbalanced things are.
真正令我震惊的是事情是多么不平衡。
For PIMCO it's just not that big a deal to sell all their Greek, Portuguese and Spanish bonds.
对于太平洋投资管理公司来说，出售所有希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙债券并不是什么大不了的事。
It's a few clicks on a keyboard, moving around a relatively small amount of their overall money.
只需在键盘上点击几下，就可以转移相对较少的总资金。
But for the countries whose bonds they're selling, it feels a lot more like the end of the world.
但对于那些出售债券的国家来说，这感觉更像是世界末日。
Soon the Greek government had some new bonds they wanted to sell.
很快希腊政府就有了一些想要出售的新债券。
And they came to PIMCO hoping they'd buy.
他们来到太平洋投资管理公司希望能够购买。
The Greek government came with lots of offerings.
希腊政府带来了大量的产品。
They did come to us directly via our offices in Germany and London.
他们确实通过我们在德国和伦敦的办事处直接来找我们。
And we said, thank you but no thank you.
我们说，谢谢，但不，谢谢。
They said, we are issuing $5 billion, $7 billion.
他们说，我们要发行50亿美元、70亿美元。
Lots of people are participating.
很多人都在参与。
Look at how attractive these bonds are and we said--
看看这些债券有多么有吸引力，我们说——
You mean the interest rates are higher than the rest of Europe?
你的意思是利率比欧洲其他国家高？
The interest rates are higher, not only than the rest of Europe but they were higher than what they were before.
利率不仅比欧洲其他国家更高，而且比以前更高。
And we said, thank you very much.
我们说，非常感谢。
We appreciate it.
我们很感激。
But our analysis shows that sovereign risk is an issue.
但我们的分析表明，主权风险是一个问题。
Sovereign risk is an issue.
主权风险是一个问题。
That's one of those phrases that sounds pretty innocuous and boring, but it hides something really dramatic.
这是听起来无害且无聊的短语之一，但它隐藏着一些真正戏剧性的东西。
It means that for PIMCO, Greece went from being one of the countries that you don't have to worry about to one that might not be able to pay its bills.
这意味着对于PIMCO来说，希腊从一个不用担心的国家变成了一个可能无力支付账单的国家。
When money managers worry about a country not paying its bills, things get very weird.
当资金管理者担心一个国家无法支付其账单时，事情就会变得非常奇怪。
Back in Greece, after several years of cheap money, there was no money.
回到希腊，经过几年的廉价资金，已经没有钱了。
This is Katarina Margaritu, a Greek chemist in Athens.
我是卡塔琳娜·玛加里图 (Katarina Margaritu)，一位住在雅典的希腊化学家。
Suddenly all they were talking about the Greek crisis.
突然之间，他们都在谈论希腊危机。
We are in the crisis.
我们正处于危机之中。
We have no money.
我们没有钱。
We are going broke.
我们快要破产了。
And I was shocked.
我很震惊。
I didn't know anything.
我什么都不知道。
Katerina spent a few weeks after this just feeling winded.
卡特琳娜在这之后度过了几个星期，只是感到气喘吁吁。
She remembers she'd sit on her couch and think about everything that just happened and wonder how it could be that her government overspent so dramatically.
她记得她坐在沙发上思考刚刚发生的一切，想知道她的政府怎么会如此大幅度地超支。
She thought about it and she thought, oh, yeah, I guess that unemployed friend of mine finally got a job.
她想了想，哦，是的，我想我那个失业的朋友终于找到了工作。
We all thought that was never going to happen.
我们都认为这永远不会发生。
Actually a lot of people got jobs.
其实很多人都找到了工作。
Oh, and we got that new subway system.
哦，我们有了新的地铁系统。
Stadiums, roads, a bridge-- a very expensive bridge.
体育场、道路、桥梁——一座非常昂贵的桥梁。
Also we had the Olympic Games in Greece.
我们还在希腊举办了奥运会。
We must have spent a lot of money there.
我们一定在那里花了很多钱。
Money we couldn't have.
我们没有钱。
I think that was the time I realized that we borrowed an enormous amount of money that we couldn't possibly pay back.
我想就在那时我意识到我们借了一大笔钱，而且根本无法偿还。
Here again, is Jacob Kirkegaard with the economics think tank.
经济智囊团的雅各布·柯克加德（Jacob Kirkegaard）又来了。
This is the moment in time in which Greece is no longer a solvent country.
此时此刻，希腊不再是一个有偿债能力的国家。
So the sovereign debt crisis, that's when it started?
那么主权债务危机就是从那时开始的吗？
That is when it starts, yes.
那就是它开始的时候，是的。
Alex Blumberg Coming up, facing life in prison for doing math.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格 (Alex Blumberg) 即将登场，因做数学题而面临终身监禁。
That's in a minute from Chicago Public Radio and Public Radio International when our program continues.
一分钟后，芝加哥公共广播电台和国际公共广播电台将继续我们的节目。
(HOST) IRA GLASS: It's This American Life .
（主持人）IRA GLASS：这就是美国生活。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Today's program, Continental Breakup, the epic story behind what is boringly referred to most of the time as the European debt crisis.
今天的节目《大陆分裂》讲述了大多数时候被无聊地称为欧洲债务危机背后的史诗故事。
It's really the story of the euro, the rise and fall of the euro.
这确实是欧元的故事，欧元的兴衰。
How it transformed life for people all over Europe.
它如何改变了欧洲各地人们的生活。
We've turned over the entire episode today to the Planet Money team.
我们今天已将整集移交给 Planet Money 团队。
And as your host, your guide for the hour is Alex Blumberg.
作为您的东道主，您这一小时的导游是亚历克斯·布隆伯格 (Alex Blumberg)。
Hi, Alex.
嗨，亚历克斯。
Hey.
嘿。
So we were in the middle of Act Three, which began, remember with fireworks commemorating the euro's debut January 1, 2002.
所以我们正处于第三幕的中间，记得是在纪念欧元 2002 年 1 月 1 日首次亮相的烟花中开始的。
There were people all over Europe celebrating, saying this new currency's like magic.
欧洲各地的人们都在庆祝，称这种新货币就像魔法一样。
We all now know of course that the euro hasn't been working out so great.
当然，我们现在都知道欧元的表现并不太好。
But there's this amazing moment in that BBC story from 2002, the reporter, Justin Webb, finishes his report and the anchor asks him one follow-up question.
但在 2002 年 BBC 的报道中有一个令人惊奇的时刻，记者贾斯汀·韦伯 (Justin Webb) 完成了他的报道，主播问了他一个后续问题。
And Justin Webb proceeds to almost perfectly predict the future.
贾斯汀·韦伯几乎完美地预测了未来。
Justin, when will it be possible to judge whether the changeover has been a success?
Justin，什么时候才能判断转型是否成功呢？
Well the short answer is not today and not in a few days to come, either.
嗯，简短的答案不是今天，也不是未来几天。
Although there is a positive mood, it really us nothing about the long-term future.
虽然有积极的情绪，但对长远的未来确实没有什么帮助。
We will only know whether this currency is a success when there is a severe economic shock in one Eurozone nation and the other nations rally round and the currency survives.
只有当一个欧元区国家遭受严重的经济冲击，而其他国家团结起来并且该货币得以生存时，我们才会知道该货币是否成功。
That is some time in the future.
那是未来的某个时间。
So a positive mood today and that is helpful, but the jury is still out.
因此，今天的积极情绪是有帮助的，但目前还没有定论。
Truer words were never spoken, Justin.
贾斯汀，从来没有说过更真实的话。
The economic shock has arrived in Europe.
经济冲击已经波及欧洲。
And it's spreading.
而且它正在蔓延。
Here's Adam Davidson and Chana Joffe-Walt to pick the story back up.
亚当·戴维森 (Adam Davidson) 和查纳·乔菲·沃尔特 (Chana Joffe-Walt) 为您重述这个故事。
When the Greek government made its shocking announcement about its huge deficit numbers in 2009, that is when the euro turns from a blessing to a curse.
2009年，当希腊政府对其巨额赤字数字做出令人震惊的宣布时，欧元就从祝福变成了诅咒。
When times are good, the strongest country can make everybody stronger.
时代好的时候，国家强大才能让大家都变得更强。
But when times are bad, the weakest country can bring everybody down.
但当形势不好时，最弱的国家就会让所有人都倒下。
Remember what Mohamed El-Erian, the CEO of PIMCO, said he did around the time of that announcement?
还记得太平洋投资管理公司 (PIMCO) 首席执行官穆罕默德·埃里安 (Mohamed El-Erian) 在宣布这一消息时所说的话吗？
In the end of last year we sold all our Greek, Portuguese and Spanish exposure.
去年年底，我们出售了所有希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙业务。
In other words, we're going to stop lending to Greece.
换句话说，我们将停止向希腊提供贷款。
But we're also going to stop lending to Portugal and Spain.
但我们也将停止向葡萄牙和西班牙提供贷款。
Now Portugal and Spain, they didn't lie about their deficits.
现在葡萄牙和西班牙，他们没有对赤字撒谎。
In the case of Spain, they'd actually been pretty conservative throughout the decade in the way they handled their finances.
就西班牙而言，这十年来他们处理财务的方式实际上相当保守。
But when Greece made that announcement, it shattered the image of the Eurozone for people like El-Erian.
但当希腊宣布这一消息时，它打破了像埃里安这样的人眼中的欧元区形象。
Instead of seeing all the euro countries as the same-- safe, boring, basically Germany-- they saw them all as opposite.
他们没有将所有欧元区国家视为相同的——安全、无聊，主要是德国——而是认为它们都是相反的。
They went back to being what they were before-- individual countries with individual problems.
它们又回到了原来的样子——各个国家都有各自的问题。
Some looked like a safe bet to loan money to, others, maybe they'd get their money back but maybe they wouldn't.
有些人看起来可以放心借钱，而另一些人则可能会拿回钱，但也可能不会。
And for those countries, the ones they were worried about, it just gets harder and harder to find anyone to lend them money.
对于那些他们担心的国家来说，找到借钱给他们的人变得越来越难。
The European debt crisis showing no signs of easing yet.
欧债危机尚未出现缓解迹象。
The S&P credit raters say they might downgrade Portugal's credit rating.
标准普尔信用评级机构表示，他们可能会下调葡萄牙的信用评级。
Spanish 10-year bond yields fair now at their highest level since 2002 as Eurozone contagion fears continue to ramp up.
随着欧元区蔓延的担忧继续加剧，西班牙 10 年期债券收益率目前处于 2002 年以来的最高水平。
Pressure on Spain--
对西班牙的压力——
Whether it's Italy one day or Spain the next.
无论前天是意大利还是后天是西班牙。
Today it's Belgium.
今天是比利时。
I mean, look at that move.
我的意思是，看看那个动作。
Whoa.
哇哦。
It kind of leaves me speechless.
这让我有点无语。
And so there's another one we're going to have to start to worry about.
所以我们还要开始担心另一个问题。
Yes indeed, and the spread by the way in terms of what Belgium's able to borrow at--
是的，确实如此，顺便说一下，比利时能够借入的资金的利差——
It used to be, before the euro, when times were bad in Greece or Italy or Portugal, when those countries got themselves too deep into debt, they could do something about it.
过去，在欧元出现之前，当希腊、意大利或葡萄牙经济形势不好时，当这些国家陷入债务困境时，他们可以采取一些措施。
They could create money.
他们可以创造金钱。
They could create drachmas or liras, escudos, and essentially use that money to pay off their debts.
他们可以创造德拉克马或里拉、埃斯库多，并基本上用这些钱来偿还债务。
But now that Greece and Italy and Portugal were part of the euro, it was no longer up to them to create more money.
但既然希腊、意大利和葡萄牙已经成为欧元的一部分，他们就不再需要创造更多的货币了。
It was up to the institution that controls the euro, the European Central Bank.
这取决于控制欧元的机构——欧洲中央银行。
And when the European Central Bank was created, the Germans insisted-- or else they would not join the euro-- that the European Central Bank would not do anything that might risk inflation.
当欧洲中央银行成立时，德国人坚称——否则他们就不会加入欧元——欧洲中央银行不会做任何可能带来通胀风险的事情。
And creating a lot of euros so that the Greeks and Portuguese could pay off their debts, that definitely risked inflation.
创造大量欧元以便希腊和葡萄牙能够偿还债务，这肯定会带来通货膨胀风险。
So the troubled countries of Europe were stuck.
因此，陷入困境的欧洲国家陷入了困境。
Act Four, Do-over.
第四幕，重来。
It's been over two years since the Greeks made that shocking announcement about their deficit number, and the crisis has been spreading throughout Europe ever since.
自从希腊公布令人震惊的赤字数字以来，已经过去两年多了，危机从那时起就一直在整个欧洲蔓延。
European leaders have tried a variety plans to fix things.
欧洲领导人尝试了多种计划来解决问题。
And typically, there's a big announcement about a new solution, things stabilize for a day or two, maybe a week, and then everything gets worse than it was before.
通常，当发布一个关于新解决方案的重大公告时，情况会稳定一两天，甚至一周，然后一切都会变得比以前更糟。
But then, just last month, December 9, 2011, the Europeans came to an interesting-- and what they described as-- final plan.
但就在上个月，即 2011 年 12 月 9 日，欧洲人达成了一项有趣的——正如他们所描述的——最终计划。
The plan was essentially correct the original sin of the euro.
该计划本质上纠正了欧元的原罪。
Give the rules-- those rules all the Eurozone countries are supposed to follow but didn't follow-- give those rules actual teeth.
制定规则——所有欧元区国家都应该遵守但没有遵守的规则——赋予这些规则实际的效力。
If countries break the rules, European leaders will send in a SWAT team of technocrats to come in and take over.
如果国家违反规则，欧洲领导人将派出一支由技术官僚组成的特警队介入并接管。
So now governments in Spain, Italy, Ireland, are scrambling to bring their budgets in line with these rules-- cutting down debt, trying to make themselves seem safe, dependable, trustworthy.
因此，现在西班牙、意大利、爱尔兰的政府都在努力让自己的预算符合这些规则——削减债务，试图让自己看起来安全、可靠、值得信赖。
Trying to make themselves seem like the kind of countries the world would be happy to lend money to.
试图让自己看起来像是世界上愿意借钱的国家。
It seems like a straightforward plan.
这似乎是一个简单的计划。
And the obvious place to start would be Greece.
显而易见的起点就是希腊。
That was where the crisis first started and indeed, European technocrats schooled in the German mindset are already there trying to fix things.
这就是危机最初开始的地方，事实上，接受德国思维方式教育的欧洲技术官僚已经在那里试图解决问题。
Chana Joffe-Walt went to see how it's going so far.
查纳·乔夫-沃尔特 (Chana Joffe-Walt) 前去查看目前进展情况。
The very first place the technocrats went was 46 Pireos Street, the Greek Statistics Office, the very building the crisis began in.
技术官僚们最先去的地方是皮雷奥斯街 46 号的希腊统计局，也就是危机开始的那栋大楼。
You remember the guys who reported, whoops, the Greek government deficit is actually twice what we said before and then offered this confidence inspiring explanation of what happened.
你还记得那些报告的人，哎呀，希腊政府赤字实际上是我们之前所说的两倍，然后对所发生的事情提供了令人鼓舞的解释。
Nobody knows.
没有人知道。
Chana Joffe-Walt This is Konstantinos Skordas.
查纳·乔夫-沃尔特 我是康斯坦丁诺斯·斯科达斯。
You can think of him as sort of the Greek old guard.
你可以把他视为希腊的守旧派。
He, like the majority of his colleagues here, have worked in the Statistics Office for decades.
他和这里的大多数同事一样，在统计局工作了几十年。
In the summer of 2010, a European technocrat arrived in the building to lead the Greek old guard into this new European world.
2010年夏天，一位欧洲技术官僚来到这座大楼，带领希腊保守派进入这个新的欧洲世界。
His name Andreas Georgiou.
他的名字叫安德烈亚斯·乔治欧。
He's Greek, but he's been living abroad for decades.
他是希腊人，但他已经在国外生活了几十年。
And he's kind of a no-nonsense numbers guy, the guy who opens an interview by telling you he'd prefer you disappear.
他是一个严肃的数字人，在接受采访时他会告诉你他希望你消失。
My goal is to make this a competent, boring institution and not to be in the limelight.
我的目标是让它成为一个有能力、无聊的机构，而不是成为众人瞩目的焦点。
Actually not to have to give an interview like this one.
实际上不必接受这样的采访。
Georgiou has obviously not yet achieved his goal because here I am to find out why he hasn't.
乔治乌显然还没有实现他的目标，因为我来这里是为了找出他没有实现的原因。
Because, quite frankly, his job seems kind of easy.
因为，坦率地说，他的工作看起来很轻松。
All he has to do is produce a couple numbers-- one number, really.
他所要做的就是产生几个数字——实际上是一个数字。
The real deficit number for 2009.
2009 年实际赤字数字。
And just that one job is not going well.
只是其中一项工作进展并不顺利。
Things appear to be difficult, actually, in some areas from the very beginning.
事实上，事情从一开始就在某些领域看起来很困难。
In the very beginning, August, 2010, Georgiou arrived and got straight to the numbers.
2010 年 8 月，Georgiou 一开始就来了，直接谈了数字。
He was going to calculate the true deficit number.
他要计算出真实的赤字数字。
Investors were going to see Greece has this new bureaucrat at the helm.
投资者将看到希腊由这位新官僚掌舵。
Faith would be restored.
信仰将会恢复。
But within a few minutes of sitting down with the data, Georgiou realized, this is going to take a while.
但乔治欧在坐下来研究数据几分钟后就意识到，这需要一段时间。
In order to be able to count what is the deficit and the debt, you have to know what you are counting.
为了能够计算赤字和债务，你必须知道你在计算什么。
You have to know which institutions belong in this concept called government.
你必须知道哪些机构属于政府这个概念。
So that was, for example, an open question.
例如，这是一个悬而未决的问题。
You might think what is part of government and what is not part of government should be pretty clear.
您可能认为什么是政府的一部分，什么不是政府的一部分应该非常清楚。
It was not.
事实并非如此。
Georgiou sifted through spreadsheets, and the first thing he found was a national train company that just wasn't included anywhere in the numbers.
乔治奥筛选了电子表格，他发现的第一件事是一家国家铁路公司，但数字中没有包含任何地方。
Then he found a national TV company, then a tourism organization.
然后他找到了一家国家电视公司，然后是一家旅游组织。
We found 17 institutions, large institutions, were left out.
我们发现 17 个机构，大型机构，被排除在外。
I did not know.
我不知道。
But this is, you asked me what I found.
但这是，你问我发现了什么。
In principle this should not happen.
原则上这不应该发生。
And finally, at the end of 2010, Georgiou and his staff had a new deficit number to report to Eurostat, to the European Statistical Agency.
最后，在 2010 年底，Georgiou 和他的工作人员向欧盟统计局、欧洲统计局报告了新的赤字数字。
Greek 2009 government deficit, final number-- 15.8% Now 15.8%, that's even higher than the number that set off the debt crisis.
希腊2009年政府赤字，最终数字——15.8% 现在为15.8%，这甚至高于引发债务危机的数字。
But Eurostat praised his methodology.
但欧盟统计局赞扬了他的方法。
They blessed his number as true.
他们祝福他的数字是真实的。
They said, finally we have a real, grown-up number.
他们说，我们终于有了一个真实的、成熟的数字。
Meanwhile the Greek old guard?
与此同时，希腊的保守派呢？
They weren't so happy.
他们不太高兴。
People like Konstantinos Skordas didn't like having their previous work criticized.
像康斯坦丁诺斯·斯科达斯这样的人不喜欢他们之前的作品受到批评。
They didn't like the new guy, and they definitely didn't like his new deficit number.
他们不喜欢这个新人，也绝对不喜欢他的新赤字数字。
Everybody said, oh what number is this?
大家都说，哦，这是几号？
We expected to discuss this matter, some peculiar words he told to us.
我们希望讨论这个问题，他告诉我们一些奇怪的话。
And we had a lot of questions about it.
我们对此有很多疑问。
Skordas and several others in the Greek old guard insisted that a Statistics Office board should have been consulted.
斯科达斯和其他几位希腊保守派人士坚持认为应该咨询统计局委员会的意见。
In fact, the Greeks in this building, they said, should be involved in anything that gets reported to European authorities about how Greece is doing, especially a deficit number.
事实上，他们说，这座大楼里的希腊人应该参与向欧洲当局报告希腊状况的任何事情，尤其是赤字数字。
They argued, they should get to vote.
他们争辩说，他们应该投票。
Georgiou, the technocrat, he saw this as a threat to his independence.
作为技术官僚乔治乌，他认为这对他的独立性构成了威胁。
He told them, you don't get to vote on this.
他告诉他们，你们无权对此进行投票。
The number is the number.
数字就是数字。
But then something happened, which was absolutely shocking.
但随后发生了一件绝对令人震惊的事情。
Georgiou says a few weeks after he sent the new deficit number to Eurostat, a colleague of Skordas, a prominent member of the Greek old guard, send him a note and asked to see him.
乔治欧表示，在他向欧盟统计局发送新的赤字数据几周后，希腊保守派的著名成员斯科达斯的一位同事给他发了一张便条并要求见他。
Georgiou says the two met in a small room, adjacent to his office, and the guy from the Greek old guard sat across from Georgiou on the couch.
乔治欧说，两人在他办公室附近的一个小房间里见面，希腊保守派的那个人坐在乔治欧对面的沙发上。
And presented me with a document that only existed in an email communication between me and my lawyer through my personal email.
并向我提供了一份仅存在于我和我的律师通过我的个人电子邮件进行的电子邮件通信中的文件。
What did you say?
你说什么？
Andreas Georgiou I didn't say that he has hacked into my emails.
安德烈亚斯·乔治欧 我没有说他侵入了我的电子邮件。
I said that this is a product of a criminal act.
我说这是犯罪行为的产物。
And the answer that I got was that things like that happen.
我得到的答案是这样的事情会发生。
Things like what happen?
诸如此类的事情会发生吗？
Andreas Georgiou That things that are in my personal email could find their way around.
Andreas Georgiou 我个人电子邮件中的内容可以找到解决办法。
He said, things like that happen in Greece.
他说，类似的事情发生在希腊。
And I told him that, no, they don't happen in my country, or at least they shouldn't happen in my country.
我告诉他，不，它们不会发生在我的国家，或者至少它们不应该发生在我的国家。
The old guard, including the man accused, deny this ever happened.
包括被指控的男子在内的保守派人士否认曾发生过这种情况。
And then the Statistics Office workers went on strike against the technocrat, against Georgiou.
然后统计局工作人员举行罢工，反对技术官僚、反对乔治乌。
Twice they striked.
他们袭击了两次。
Mathematicians and accountants holding signs, walking a picket line.
数学家和会计师举着牌子，走在纠察线上。
At one point they occupied the building so no one could get in.
他们一度占领了大楼，没人能进去。
And then, last fall, Andreas Georgiou got a phone call from a Greek government official.
然后，去年秋天，安德烈亚斯·乔治欧接到了希腊政府官员的电话。
The prosecutor, Georgiou says, explained that the office planned to clarify the contested 2009 deficit number and he wanted Georgiou's help.
乔治欧说，检察官解释说，该办公室计划澄清有争议的 2009 年赤字数字，他希望乔治欧提供帮助。
Georgiou says he sent over 75 boxes of documents, documents which explained exactly how he came up with his real number.
Georgiou 说，他发送了超过 75 箱文件，这些文件准确地解释了他如何得出自己的真实号码。
And a few weeks after that I got another letter asking me to appear in front of the prosecutor.
几周后，我收到另一封信，要求我出庭见检察官。
And to my surprise they asked me where my lawyer was.
令我惊讶的是，他们问我的律师在哪里。
And I asked why I needed a lawyer, and they explained to me that I was being invited as a suspect not as a witness.
我问为什么需要律师，他们向我解释说我是作为嫌疑人而不是证人被邀请的。
In other words, Andreas Georgiou is being accused of a crime.
换句话说，安德烈亚斯·乔治欧 (Andreas Georgiou) 被指控犯罪。
Something called breach of faith against the state.
所谓对国家背信弃义。
To me, well there's no other word for it than insane.
对我来说，除了疯狂，没有其他词可以形容了。
This again, is Jacob Kirkegaard with the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
这又是彼得森国际经济研究所的雅各布·柯克加德（Jacob Kirkegaard）。
And Kirkegaard says members of the Greek old guard have alleged Georgiou is colluding with European leaders, that Georgiou deliberately made the deficit number high so Greece would look bad and European leaders could come in and run things the way they want to.
柯克加德表示，希腊保守派成员指控乔治欧与欧洲领导人勾结，乔治欧故意将赤字数字推高，这样希腊就会看起来很糟糕，而欧洲领导人就可以介入并按照他们想要的方式管理事情。
Georgiou faces life in prison.
乔治欧面临终身监禁。
Remember, Kirkegaard says, this is the guy that was supposed to change the public image of the Statistics Office.
柯克加德说，请记住，这个人应该改变统计局的公众形象。
I mean, the worst thing you can do if you were trying to restore outside confidence is, of course, to indict the guy who has been trying to establish credible, defensible and truthful data.
我的意思是，如果你试图恢复外界信心，你能做的最糟糕的事情当然就是起诉那些一直试图建立可信、可辩护和真实数据的人。
If this is the new plan to save the euro, send in the technocrat to fix things, it does not seem to be going well, at least not in Athens.
如果这是拯救欧元的新计划，派遣技术官僚来解决问题，那么它似乎进展并不顺利，至少在雅典是这样。
The technocrat is harassed, his email hacked, he's accused of treason, and he faces life in prison.
这位技术官僚受到骚扰，他的电子邮件遭到黑客攻击，他被指控犯有叛国罪，并面临终身监禁。
It is hard to make Greece Germany.
希腊很难成为德国。
This brings us to Act Five, What's a Greek Accountant Got To Do With Me?
这让我们进入第五幕，希腊会计师跟我有什么关系？
The answer would normally be nothing.
答案通常是什么也没有。
Greece is a pretty tiny country and every other country in the Eurozone is in much better shape than Greece.
希腊是一个很小的国家，欧元区其他国家的情况都比希腊好得多。
But that doesn't matter right now.
但现在这并不重要。
You're going to be hearing a lot about Greece in the next couple of weeks and months.
在接下来的几周和几个月里，您将听到很多有关希腊的消息。
People will be talking about whether Greece can get some of its debt forgiven, whether Greece will get its next bailout.
人们将讨论希腊能否获得部分债务减免，希腊能否获得下一次救助。
And the thing you need to keep in mind as you hear all this, what those people are really talking about when they're talking about Greece is Italy.
当你听到这一切时，你需要记住，那些人在谈论希腊时真正谈论的是意大利。
It feels like a big leap to go from Greece to Italy.
从希腊到意大利，感觉就像是一个巨大的飞跃。
Yeah, Chana, it really does.
是的，查娜，确实如此。
And so let's just talk through this.
让我们来讨论一下这个问题。
I mean Greece in in much worse shape than Italy.
我的意思是希腊的情况比意大利糟糕得多。
But Italy is next in line.
但意大利紧随其后。
You remember worries about Greece cast the shadow on Portugal which then cast a shadow on Ireland and then Spain?
您还记得对希腊的担忧给葡萄牙蒙上了阴影，然后又给爱尔兰和西班牙蒙上了阴影吗？
At the end of last year it finally reached Italy.
去年年底，它终于到达了意大利。
Suddenly Italy, like Greece and Portugal and Ireland and Spain before it, was having a harder and harder time finding anyone to lend it money at reasonable interest rates.
突然之间，意大利就像之前的希腊、葡萄牙、爱尔兰和西班牙一样，越来越难找到能以合理利率借钱给它的人。
Italian bond yields hitting record levels today as investors expressed their concern about how and when the country will address its fiscal constraints.
意大利债券收益率今天创下历史新高，投资者对该国如何以及何时解决财政约束表示担忧。
And this is the moment where the debt crisis took a really scary turn.
这就是债务危机发生真正可怕转变的时刻。
Because Italy, Italy is enormous.
因为意大利，意大利很大。
Italy's the seventh-largest economy in the world.
意大利是世界第七大经济体。
Everybody knows Italy is a huge economy.
众所周知，意大利是一个巨大的经济体。
If Italy starts teetering more than it already is, it's going to be an issue.
如果意大利开始比现在更加摇摇欲坠，这将是一个问题。
The situation in Italy is really now getting serious, and I think we are approaching a kind of systemic crisis right now that reminds very much to the situation in 2008.
意大利的局势现在确实变得越来越严重，我认为我们现在正在接近一种系统性危机，这与 2008 年的情况非常相似。
2008, you may remember, that's when the US economy fell apart.
你可能还记得，2008 年，美国经济崩溃了。
And this is why when people say they're worried about Greece, they're actually worried about Italy.
这就是为什么当人们说他们担心希腊时，他们实际上是担心意大利。
Because Italy's destiny is now tied to the destiny of Greece.
因为意大利的命运现在与希腊的命运息息相关。
If our last financial crisis taught us anything, it's that relatively small defaults can have very large consequences.
如果说上次金融危机教会了我们什么的话，那就是相对较小的违约可能会产生非常严重的后果。
The last crisis began, you may remember, with the collapse of a pretty small investment bank, Lehman Brothers.
您可能还记得，上一次危机是随着一家相当小的投资银行雷曼兄弟的倒闭而开始的。
A default in the tiny country of Greece could have similar catastrophic consequences, cause a chain reaction of defaults ending with Italy.
希腊这个小国的违约可能会产生类似的灾难性后果，导致意大利违约的连锁反应。
Greece, Greece is the cigarette.
希腊，希腊就是香烟。
Italy is the gas station.
意大利是加油站。
And this is where, if you're in the United States and you didn't already care, you might start to care.
这就是如果你在美国并且你还没有关心的话，你可能会开始关心。
The United States seems finally to be on a slow, fragile path to recovery.
美国似乎终于走上了一条缓慢而脆弱的复苏之路。
Europe could kill that.
欧洲可能会扼杀这一点。
It could slow it down.
它可能会减慢速度。
It could stop it.
它可以阻止它。
It could make things worse than they were before.
这可能会让事情变得比以前更糟。
Most days the crisis in Europe seems like this slow-moving mess that will eventually work itself out.
大多数时候，欧洲的危机似乎是一场缓慢发展的混乱局面，最终会自行解决。
But every once in a while the question arises, what if it doesn't?
但每隔一段时间就会出现一个问题，如果没有呢？
Satyajit Das is a risk consultant and former banker.
Satyajit Das 是一名风险顾问和前银行家。
He spent his life in finance, and he's been following the crisis closely.
他一生从事金融工作，一直密切关注这场危机。
How scared are you?
你有多害怕？
I've been doing this for 34 years in financial markets.
我在金融市场从事这行已经 34 年了。
This is the first time in my life I actually am really worried.
这是我一生中第一次真正感到担心。
Because when you're talking about countries the size of Italy, this is really truly one of the scariest moments in my professional life.
因为当你谈论像意大利这样大的国家时，这确实是我职业生涯中最可怕的时刻之一。
Das is scared because in his view, the new plan to save the euro is exactly the opposite of what should be happening.
达斯感到害怕，因为在他看来，拯救欧元的新计划与应该发生的事情完全相反。
European leaders, he says, largely Germans, are still trying to get countries to obey their rules, those rules they set up back at the very beginning of the euro, to get countries like Greece to cut spending, bring in more in tax revenue, get their budget in line.
他说，欧洲领导人（主要是德国人）仍在努力让各国遵守他们在欧元诞生之初制定的规则，让希腊等国家削减支出，增加税收，调整预算。
But here is what happens when you cut spending and raise taxes-- the economy generally shrinks, especially in the middle of an economic crisis.
但当你削减开支和提高税收时，就会发生这样的情况——经济普遍萎缩，尤其是在经济危机期间。
In Spain, the unemployment rate has continued to rise.
在西班牙，失业率持续上升。
It's now over 20%.
现在已经超过20%了。
That is Great Depression territory.
那是大萧条的领域。
In Ireland and Portugal it's not much better.
爱尔兰和葡萄牙的情况也好不了多少。
Most people think that all of Europe is in a recession right now.
大多数人认为整个欧洲目前都处于衰退之中。
And the question is only, how bad will it get?
问题只是，情况会变得多么糟糕？
I have to say, being in Greece, it really does feel like a country on the verge of falling apart.
不得不说，在希腊，确实感觉是一个濒临崩溃的国家。
Do you remember Katarina Margaritu, the Greek chemist?
您还记得希腊化学家卡塔琳娜·玛加里图吗？
The one who who went back and remembered, oh that's all those things that we spent money on that we couldn't afford?
那个回过头来想起来的人，哦，这都是我们花钱买不起的东西吗？
Right, my friend got a job, we got the subway system.
是的，我的朋友找到了工作，我们有了地铁系统。
So she actually works as a contractor for the Greek government.
所以她实际上是希腊政府的承包商。
About a third of the Greek population relies on the government for a paycheck.
大约三分之一的希腊人口依赖政府领取薪水。
And right now?
而现在呢？
They don't pay us because they have no money.
他们不付钱给我们，因为他们没有钱。
Truth is that the last paycheck I took was from July.
事实上，我最后一次领取工资是七月份的。
So my company now owes me the salary from August, September, October, November and December.
所以我公司现在欠我8月、9月、10月、11月、12月的工资。
So I haven't been paid from July.
所以从7月份开始我就没有收到工资了。
Well, I like my work.
嗯，我喜欢我的工作。
You see, every day we work we bring money to the company.
你看，我们每天工作都给公司带来了钱。
So every time we bring money we are increasing the possibility to get paid.
因此，每当我们带来金钱时，我们就增加了获得报酬的可能性。
Do you think that you'll get paid the back pay?
你认为你会得到欠薪吗？
Yes.
是的。
I'm sure.
我敢肯定。
Chana Joffe-Walt Katerina's boyfriend, you can hear him in the background there, he is not so sure.
Chana Joffe-Walt Katerina 的男朋友，你可以在后台听到他的声音，他不太确定。
Actually he is absolutely sure there is no way she will get paid.
事实上，他绝对确定她不可能得到报酬。
And I have to say I'm with the boyfriend on this.
我不得不说我和男朋友在这件事上是站在一起的。
Europe today feels like a far cry from the dream of Victor Hugo, from that exciting scene at the launch of the euro with the fireworks and the people talking about magic.
今天的欧洲感觉与维克多·雨果的梦想相去甚远，与欧元推出时烟花爆竹和人们谈论魔法时激动人心的场景相去甚远。
Germans worry now that they are on the hook for bailing out a huge section of the continent.
德国人现在担心他们因救助欧洲大陆的大部分地区而陷入困境。
Half of Germans now think that the euro was bad for Germany.
现在有一半的德国人认为欧元对德国不利。
And that question, whether or not the euro was a good idea, is on a lot of people's minds.
很多人都在思考欧元是否是个好主意这一问题。
It came up with Katarina in Athens.
它在雅典想到了卡塔琳娜。
Maybe it's better to go back to drachma.
也许回到德拉克马会更好。
The drachma is Greece's old currency.
德拉克马是希腊的旧货币。
But this idea, at least to her, is a painful one.
但这个想法，至少对她来说，是一个痛苦的想法。
I like this whole European family.
我喜欢这个整个欧洲家庭。
I like to be a member of this family.
我喜欢成为这个家庭的一员。
We have exchanged ideas and culture all these years being together.
这些年来我们在一起交流思想和文化。
I don't want to leave them.
我不想离开他们。
It's my family now.
现在是我的家人了。
But I don't like their currency.
但我不喜欢他们的货币。
In the effort to keep the family together there is one other thing that gets talked about all the time as the only real true solution.
在努力让家人团聚的过程中，还有另一件事一直被人们谈论为唯一真正的解决方案。
Create money.
创造金钱。
Get the European Central Bank to make a bunch of new euros, which the troubled countries of Europe could use to pay off their debts.
让欧洲央行发行大量新欧元，让陷入困境的欧洲国家可以用来偿还债务。
But the richest country in the club, the one that is calling all the shots right now, firmly does not want that.
但俱乐部中最富有的国家，也就是现在发号施令的国家，坚决不希望出现这种情况。
That country, of course, is Germany.
这个国家当然就是德国。
Instead, Germany seems much more focused right now on fixing that old mistake, getting the rest of Europe to act more German, the way they wanted when the euro started.
相反，德国现在似乎更专注于纠正这个老错误，让欧洲其他国家表现得更加德国化，就像欧元诞生时他们想要的那样。
The European Central Bank has been making tentative steps in the money-creating direction.
欧洲央行一直在货币创造方面采取试探性措施。
But a lot of people say small steps are not enough.
但很多人说小步骤还不够。
They say, in other words, the only way out of this crisis may be for Germany to become even more like the rest of Europe, not the other way around.
换句话说，他们表示，摆脱这场危机的唯一出路可能是德国变得更像欧洲其他国家，而不是相反。
That was Alex Blumberg.
那是亚历克斯·布隆伯格。
He and Chana Joffe-Walt and Adam Davidson and Zoe Chace are all part of Planet Money , which is an economics reporting project of This American Life and NPR News .
他和 Chana Joffe-Walt、Adam Davidson 和 Zoe Chace 都是 Planet Money 的成员，该项目是 This American Life 和 NPR News 的经济报道项目。
Their podcast, where you can get reporting like this twice a week, and their blog, are at NPR.org/money.
他们的播客（每周两次）可以获取这样的报道，他们的博客位于 NPR.org/money。
[MUSIC - "LEARN FROM YOUR MISTAKES" BY JULIAN GASKELL]
[音乐 - 朱利安·加斯克尔的《从错误中学习》]
All right!
好吧！
This American Life was produced today by me, Ben Calhoun, Sarah Koenig, Jonathan Menjivar, Lisa Pollak, Brian Reed, Robyn Semien, Alyssa Schipp, Nancy Updike, our senior producer is Julie Snyder.
《美国生活》今天由我、Ben Calhoun、Sarah Koenig、Jonathan Menjivar、Lisa Pollak、Brian Reed、Robyn Semien、Alyssa Schipp、Nancy Updike 制作，我们的高级制作人是 Julie Snyder。
Seth Lind is our production manager.
塞思·林德 (Seth Lind) 是我们的生产经理。
Emily Condon is our office manager.
艾米丽·康登 (Emily Condon) 是我们的办公室经理。
Production help from Mickey Meek and Matt Kilty.
米奇·米克 (Mickey Meek) 和马特·基尔蒂 (Matt Kilty) 为制作提供帮助。
Scouting help from Elma Baker, music help from Damien Grave and Rob Geddes.
艾尔玛·贝克 (Elma Baker) 提供球探帮助，达米安·格雷夫 (Damien Grave) 和罗布·格迪斯 (Rob Geddes) 提供音乐帮助。
[ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS] Our website, thisamericanlife.org.
[致谢] 我们的网站 thisamericanlife.org。
This American Life is distributed by Public Radio International.
《美国生活》由国际公共广播电台发行。
WBEZ management oversight from our boss, Mr. Torey Malatia, who I overheard talking with Chana about today's decision to hand the show over to me.
WBEZ 的管理监督来自我们的老板 Torey Malatia 先生，我无意中听到他与 Chana 谈论今天将演出交给我的决定。
That's so crazy.
太疯狂了。
It just sounds so crazy now.
现在听起来太疯狂了。
I mean I understand at the time that might have made sense, but it sounds crazy now.
我的意思是，我当时明白这可能是有道理的，但现在听起来很疯狂。
That's the definition.
这就是定义。
You just gave a very good definition of a mistake.
您刚刚对错误给出了很好的定义。
Which is weird because when I asked him what it was like hearing me take over the show this is what he said to my face.
这很奇怪，因为当我问他听到我接管节目感觉如何时，他当着我的面说道。
I'm Alex Blumberg.
我是亚历克斯·布隆伯格。
Come back next week for more stories of This American Life .
下周回来观看《美国生活》的更多故事。
This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.
《This American Life》与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。