397: 2010 - This American Life
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00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #397 | January 1, 2010 397: 2010 Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.
00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 397 集 | 2010 年 1 月 1 日 397: 2010 注意：《美国生活》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。
If you are able, we strongly encourage you to listen to the audio, which includes emotion and emphasis that's not on the page.
如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。
Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.
文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。
Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.
请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。
Prologue Ira Glass From WBEZ Chicago, it's This American Life, distributed by Public Radio International.
序言 Ira Glass 来自 WBEZ 芝加哥，这就是美国生活，由国际公共广播电台发行。
OK, so we're looking at 2010.
好的，我们现在展望 2010 年。
Next year.
明年。
What does your higher power want you to know?
你的更高权力想让你知道什么？
Asking your higher self to guide your hands.
请求你的更高自我来指导你的双手。
What does that look like, 2010?
2010 年是什么样子？
In the back room of a crystal shop in San Francisco, a spiritual adviser named Joa Marcu is doing a tarot card reading for a woman named Ashli Lewis.
在旧金山一家水晶店的后屋里，一位名叫乔亚·马库（Joa Marcu）的精神顾问正在为一位名叫阿什莉·刘易斯（Ashli Lewis）的女士占卜塔罗牌。
In her car on the way to the reading, Ashli explained to me why she was going at all.
在去读书的路上，阿什莉在车里向我解释了她要去读书的原因。
She's not somebody who especially believes in psychics and readers and all that, but going now and then over the last decade and a half, she has always gotten the same exact message from these people.
她不是一个特别相信通灵术和读者之类的人，但在过去的十五年里，她时不时地从这些人那里得到同样的信息。
You're going to be incredibly successful.
你将会取得令人难以置信的成功。
And usually it came with the addition that I would be incredibly wealthy.
通常它还伴随着我会变得非常富有。
Also sometimes-- famous.
有时也——出名。
And not just sort of successful or somewhat wealthy or semi-famous.
不仅仅是有点成功或有点富有或半出名。
The prediction is always to the max.
预测总是最大的。
The first time it happened was in 1996.
第一次发生是在1996年。
She was at South By Southwest in Austin, and a friend had dragged her to an astrologer's table there.
她在奥斯汀的西南偏南，一个朋友把她拖到了占星家的桌子旁。
And the guy, you know, he quickly did my chart or whatever.
那个人，你知道，他很快就完成了我的图表或其他什么。
And all of a sudden he goes, oh my god.
突然他走了，天啊。
He goes, I knew somebody would be walking around this weekend with this chart.
他说，我知道这个周末有人会拿着这张图表四处走动。
He goes, you're the one.
他走了，你就是那个。
He goes, big, big money.
他走了，大笔大笔的钱。
Big, big money.
大钱，大钱。
Incredible success.
令人难以置信的成功。
And I'm just kind of-- I kind of go-- well, I didn't really think much of it at all.
我只是——我有点——好吧，我根本没想太多。
A few years later, on her 35th birthday, she took a trip to Santa Fe.
几年后，在她 35 岁生日那天，她去了圣达菲旅行。
Decided to go to a psychic as a birthday treat to herself.
决定去找灵媒作为给自己的生日礼物。
And this woman made the same prediction during the reading.
这位女士在阅读时也做出了同样的预测。
But it didn't really hit me until I was leaving her house and I was walking away, and I'm walking down the street.
但直到我离开她家，我走开，沿着街道走时，我才真正意识到这一点。
And she chases after me, and she catches up with me, and she's like, look.
她追着我，她追上了我，她就像，看。
She says, I have to make you understand something.
她说，我必须让你明白一些事情。
She says, I don't think you get what I'm talking about.
她说，我认为你不明白我在说什么。
She says, when I tell you you're going to be successful, I don't mean kind of successful.
她说，当我告诉你你会成功时，我并不是指某种程度的成功。
I mean successful in a way that you rarely see.
我的意思是，以一种你很少看到的方式取得成功。
I mean really successful, and you just need to get ready.
我的意思是真正成功，你只需要做好准备。
Two years later, Ashli was visiting Seattle and, yet another reader delivers exactly the same message.
两年后，阿什利访问西雅图时，另一位读者也传达了完全相同的信息。
Massive success, massive wealth, massive fame.
巨大的成功，巨大的财富，巨大的名声。
And Ashli asked this woman, why is this always the same wherever she goes?
阿什莉问这个女人，为什么无论她走到哪里总是一样的？
And the woman said, your spirit guide is really, really loud.
那女人说，你的精神导师真的非常非常大声。
It's like he's behind you, yelling this at me.
就好像他在你身后对我大喊大叫。
Ashli says that she's not even somebody who wants spectacular money or fame.
阿什莉说她甚至不是一个想要巨额金钱或名誉的人。
She's still a skeptic about psychics, though she says that she's had a few predictions come true in spooky ways.
她仍然对通灵术持怀疑态度，尽管她说她的一些预测以怪异的方式实现了。
Like when she was 18, a friend dragged her to see this old woman who didn't take money and supposedly had a gift from God-- seeing the future.
就像她18岁时，一个朋友拉着她去见这个不拿钱的老太婆，据说她得到了上帝的礼物——看到未来。
She said to me, do you know a Bill?
她对我说，你认识比尔吗？
And I remembered later thinking, you know, that's such a common name.
我记得后来我想，你知道，这是一个很常见的名字。
But I really don't know a Bill, except for this ex-boyfriend, a friend of mine.
但我真的不认识比尔，除了这个前男友，我的一个朋友。
And she said, Bill Mc-, Mc-something Irish.
她说，比尔·麦克——，麦克——爱尔兰人。
Don't worry, you will.
别担心，你会的。
And my husband is Bill Mc- Mc-something Irish.
我的丈夫是比尔·麦克——麦克——爱尔兰人。
What is his name?
他叫什么名字？
Ashli Lewis Bill McLachlan.
阿什莉·刘易斯·比尔·麦克拉克伦。
And what was your relationship with him at the time?
当时你和他是什么关系？
Like, what did you know about him?
比如，你对他了解多少？
Oh, I didn't meet him for like another four years after that, three years.
哦，那之后我又四年、三年没有见到他了。
It was later that I remembered that she had asked me that question.
后来我才想起来她曾问过我这个问题。
Creepy, right?
令人毛骨悚然，对吧？
So another seer told Ashli that her money and her fame would happened by the time that she's 50 years old, and she's 46 now, and she figured, OK.
所以另一位预言家告诉阿什莉，她的金钱和名气会在她 50 岁的时候出现，而她现在 46 岁了，她想，好吧。
Time is running out.
时间已经不多了。
2010 really might be the year.
2010 年确实可能是这一年。
2010 could be when this is all going to go down.
2010 年这一切可能都会下降。
And the only question was, how?
唯一的问题是，如何？
So can I ask you, are you thinking, like, OK, maybe you're going to go on American Idol ?
那么我可以问你，你是否在想，好吧，也许你会继续参加《美国偶像》？
I'm past the age requirement.
我已经超过了年龄要求。
Ira Glass Like, would you ever go on a reality show?
Ira Glass 就像，你会参加真人秀吗？
No. Ira Glass Have you been thinking about sleeping with the president?
没有。艾拉·格拉斯（Ira Glass） 你有没有考虑过和总统上床？
Not the current one, and can't say the last one either.
不是当前的，也不能说最后的。
So no.
所以不。
All right.
好的。
So to begin our reading, Ashli, what I want you to do--
那么，开始我们的阅读，阿什利，我想让你做什么——
Which brings us back to the crystal shop.
这让我们回到了水晶店。
It's been five years since Ashli's had a reading.
阿什莉已经五年没有读书了。
She's had a baby since the last time.
自从上次以来，她已经有了孩子。
Her life has changed a lot.
她的生活发生了很大变化。
And she came here because she wants to know if her fate has changed, also.
她来到这里是因为她想知道她的命运是否也改变了。
Maybe she's no longer destined for money and fame.
也许她不再注定要金钱和名誉。
And what she hears from Joa is disappointing.
她从乔亚那里听到的消息令人失望。
Mostly the reading just seems really, really generic.
大多数情况下，阅读内容看起来非常非常普通。
Joa tells her that there's something new and hopeful on the horizon for Ashli in 2010, but force inside her, negativity, is blocking this from happening.
乔亚告诉她，2010 年阿什莉将迎来一些新的、充满希望的事情，但她内心的力量、消极情绪正在阻止这一切发生。
There's a part of you, a judging part of you, says no. Who do you think you are.
你的一部分，你的评判部分，说不。你以为你是谁啊。
You know, whatever that negative voice is.
你知道，无论那个负面声音是什么。
No mention of wealth.
没有提到财富。
No mention of fame.
没有提到名气。
Outside on the street, afterwards, Ashli tells me that despite all that, despite Joa's reading, she still thinks she's heading for that fate that all the other psychics have predicted.
后来在外面的街上，阿什莉告诉我，尽管如此，尽管乔亚在读书，她仍然认为自己正在走向所有其他通灵者所预测的命运。
Maybe in 2010, maybe not.
也许是2010年，也许不是。
So you think you're going to have a good year?
那么你认为你会度过美好的一年吗？
Really?
真的吗？
Ashli Lewis Yeah.
阿什莉·刘易斯 是的。
It always gets better for me.
对我来说总是会变得更好。
I suppose if you're going to go to psychics, this is a sensible way to do it.
我想如果你打算去寻求心理学，这是一个明智的方法。
Ashli will look into a crystal ball and then she'll pick and choose what to believe about what it reveals.
阿什莉会观察一个水晶球，然后她会选择相信它所揭示的内容。
Which happens a lot this time of year.
每年这个时候这种情况经常发生。
We got the idea for today's radio show from some conversations that I had with guy from The Economist magazine.
我们今天的广播节目的想法是从我与《经济学人》杂志的人的一些谈话中得到的。
The Economist, once a year, heads out on this mission to see into the future.
《经济学人》每年一次，肩负着展望未来的使命。
They try to predict the coming year.
他们试图预测来年。
All of their editors, all their writers devote a full issue to this.
他们所有的编辑、所有的作家都为此投入了一整期。
I am a fan of the Economist .
我是《经济学人》的粉丝。
I'm a subscriber.
我是订阅者。
It's well-written, it's well-edited.
写得很好，编辑得很好。
I like the voice of the magazine.
我喜欢杂志的声音。
And full disclosure, they've been an underwriter of our show now and then.
完全披露，他们时不时地担任我们节目的承销商。
That said, I think this project where they predict the coming year, it's totally ridiculous.
也就是说，我认为他们预测来年的这个项目是完全荒谬的。
You have these great reporters who have to write about, for instance, what's going to happen in China in the year 2010, and they bring so much knowledge to this question.
例如，这些伟大的记者必须报道 2010 年中国将发生的事情，他们为这个问题带来了很多知识。
But in the end, because no one can know the future, they end up making these kind of equivocal-- on the one hand, on the other hand-- kinds of predictions.
但最终，因为没有人能够知道未来，所以他们最终做出了这种模棱两可的——一方面，另一方面——各种预测。
"China wants to be respected as a world power, but it doesn't want to do the things that a great world power does, and so it stands at a crossroads." Who cares?
“中国希望作为世界强国受到尊重，但又不想做世界强国所做的事情，因此它正处于十字路口。”谁在乎？
As a reader, you're basically in the same position that Ashli is in.
作为一名读者，您的处境基本上与阿什利相同。
There's a bunch of contradictory things that might or might not happen.
有很多矛盾的事情可能会发生也可能不会发生。
Believe whichever you want.
你愿意相信哪个就相信哪个。
And here at our radio show we thought, what if somebody tried to forecast the coming year, but instead of those "maybe it'll be this way, maybe it'll be that way" kinds of essays that you see everywhere this time of year, what if they went for real predictions?
在我们的广播节目中，我们想，如果有人试图预测来年，而不是那些每年这个时候随处可见的“也许会是这样，也许会那样”之类的文章，如果他们进行真正的预测呢？
Real predictions of things that are actually, no kidding, going to happen this year?
不是开玩笑，对今年将会发生的事情的真实预测？
To them, to people they know?
对他们，对他们认识的人？
And so that's what we're doing.
这就是我们正在做的事情。
Today we have five predictions in five acts, including a death, a birth, a sixth grader's fate in school, and just for some scope, the fate of the Middle East.
今天，我们有五幕预测，包括死亡、出生、六年级学生在学校的命运，以及中东的命运。
Want to see the future?
想看到未来吗？
Want to see what 2010 holds?
想看看 2010 年会发生什么吗？
Well, stay with us.
好吧，和我们在一起吧。
Act One.
第一幕。
"Chronicle of a Death Foretold." We start with this look into the coming year from Shalom Auslander.
《预言死亡编年史》。我们首先从 Shalom Auslander 对来年的展望开始。
2010 is not going to be a good year for me, mostly because it's going to be a terrible year for my friend Lisa, who's going to die.
2010 年对我来说不会是美好的一年，主要是因为这对我的朋友丽莎来说将是可怕的一年，她即将去世。
That's what the doctors say.
医生就是这么说的。
Three months ago, they gave her six months to live.
三个月前，他们给了她六个月的生命。
Lisa, according to the doctors, will die sometime in late February, possibly early March.
据医生称，丽莎将在二月下旬或三月初的某个时候去世。
The day after the doctors gave her the news, her husband Jason came over to our house.
医生告诉她这个消息的第二天，她的丈夫杰森来到了我们家。
Jason and Lisa are our next door neighbors.
杰森和丽莎是我们的隔壁邻居。
My wife and I don't like people as a rule, so it was something of a miracle that we don't just like Jason and Lisa, that they are two of our favorite people in the world, and live right next door.
我和我的妻子通常不喜欢别人，所以我们不仅喜欢杰森和丽莎，而且他们是我们在世界上最喜欢的两个人，而且就住在隔壁，这真是一个奇迹。
Our list of favorite people is a short one, approximately two people.
我们最喜欢的人名单很短，大约有两个人。
And by late February, possibly early March, that list is going to be cut right in half.
到二月底，可能是三月初，这个名单将被削减一半。
Six months, said Jason.
六个月，杰森说。
And though it's news I knew would eventually come, I began to feel faint.
尽管我知道这个消息最终会到来，但我开始感到头晕。
Lisa has stage four metastatic cancer.
丽莎患有第四期转移性癌症。
On the plus side, ten years ago, the doctors gave her two years to live.
从好的方面来说，十年前，医生认为她只能再活两年。
Five years ago, they gave her just one year to live.
五年前，他们只剩下一年的生命了。
I am trying to remain hopeful.
我正在努力保持希望。
Perhaps in another two years, they'll give her thirty seconds to live, and she can just prove them all wrong one more time, before even leaving the exam room.
也许再过两年，他们会给她三十秒的生命，她甚至可以在离开考场之前再一次证明他们都错了。
When he leaves, my wife is crestfallen.
当他离开时，我的妻子垂头丧气。
She's inconsolable.
她伤心欲绝。
I try to console her.
我试着安慰她。
"Screw 'em," I said.
“去死吧，”我说。
"Maybe Lisa is one of those stories you always hear about, where the doctors give someone a week to live and they live ten more years." "She was one of those stories," said my wife, "ten years ago."
“也许丽莎是你经常听到的故事之一，医生给某人一个星期的生命，而他们又多活了十年。” “她就是那些故事之一，”我的妻子说，“十年前。”
She had a point.
她说得有道理。
Eventually, if you follow them long enough, even the happiest stories end unhappily.
最终，如果你跟随他们足够长的时间，即使是最快乐的故事也会以不幸告终。
I was a child when my grandmother's older sister Henni died.
当我祖母的姐姐亨尼去世时，我还是个孩子。
Baba, as we called our grandmother, was already in her 70s, and was suffering from Alzheimer's disease.
爸爸，我们称呼我们的祖母，已经70多岁了，患有阿尔茨海默病。
There was a memorial service at our home.
我们家举行了追悼会。
Everyone was sad except for Baba, who came through the front door, saw the house full of people, and assumed it was a surprise birthday party for her.
每个人都很伤心，除了爸爸，他从前门进来，看到房子里挤满了人，并认为这是为她举办的惊喜生日聚会。
This is my first experience with the ending of life, and watching Baba, it seemed that dementia was a pretty good way to go through it.
这是我第一次经历生命的终结，看着巴巴，似乎痴呆症是一个很好的方式来度过它。
Baba smiled and clapped and thanked everyone for coming.
爸爸微笑着鼓掌，感谢大家的到来。
Then my mother took her aside, sat her on the couch in the den, and gave her the news that her sister Henni had died.
然后我母亲把她拉到一边，让她坐在书房的沙发上，告诉她她姐姐亨妮去世的消息。
Baba gasped, pulled her hair, and began to wail.
爸爸喘着粗气，拉着她的头发，开始哭泣。
"Oh, Henni," she cried.
“哦，亨妮，”她叫道。
"Henni, Henni, Henni!" My mother held her and stroked her hair and asked me to get her a glass of water.
“亨尼，亨尼，亨尼！”妈妈抱着她，抚摸着她的头发，让我给她倒杯水。
After a few minutes Baba had recovered.
几分钟后，爸爸恢复了。
She asked me if I was in school and if I liked it.
她问我是否在学校以及我是否喜欢它。
I told her that I was, and that I did.
我告诉她我是，而且我做到了。
And then she smiled and apologized and asked me who I was.
然后她微笑着道歉并问我是谁。
I was about to answer her when a well-meaning guest approached and gently clasped Baba's hand.
我正要回答她，一位好心的客人走过来，轻轻地握住了爸爸的手。
"Pearl," he said, "I'm so sorry about Henni." "What about Henni?" asked Baba.
“珀尔，”他说，“我对亨妮的事感到非常抱歉。” “那亨妮呢？”巴巴问道。
"What happened to Henni?"
“亨妮怎么了？”
It was a rough morning for Baba.
对于爸爸来说，这是一个艰难的早晨。
There was much gasping, much pulling of hair, and much wailing.
有很多喘息声、很多拉扯头发的声音和很多哀号声。
Every time she forgot about her sister, another well-meaning cousin came over, expressed his condolences, and tore Baba's heart out anew.
每当她忘记妹妹时，另一个好心的表弟就会过来表达哀悼，并再次撕碎爸爸的心。
Perhaps, I quietly suggested to my mother, everyone should just keep their stupid best wishes to themselves.
也许，我悄悄地向母亲建议，每个人都应该把自己愚蠢的最美好的愿望留给自己。
At last, they did.
最后，他们做到了。
Baba, for her part, stayed on the couch in the living room, smiling, sipping her water, and enjoying her birthday party.
爸爸则留在客厅的沙发上，微笑着喝着水，享受着她的生日聚会。
"This really is such a nice surprise," she said to me.
“这真是一个惊喜，”她对我说。
"It's a great party," I said.
“这是一个很棒的聚会，”我说。
"Everyone's here," she said.
“每个人都在这里，”她说。
"They love you," I replied.
“他们爱你，”我回答道。
Baba looked up at me and smiled.
爸爸抬头看着我，微笑着。
"And who are you?" she asked.
“那你是谁？”她问道。
In the other room, people sobbed.
另一个房间里，人们在抽泣。
I moved a pillow aside and sat down beside Baba, preferring the joyful company of the delusional to the miserable company of the sane.
我把一个枕头移到一边，坐在爸爸身边，我更喜欢与妄想者快乐的陪伴，而不是与神志清醒的人痛苦的陪伴。
By mid-January, Lisa will be getting worse.
到一月中旬，丽莎的情况会变得更糟。
She won't come out much, not even up to our place for the occasional dinner.
她很少出来，甚至偶尔也不来我们家吃晚饭。
Jason's voice will sound wearier if he even answers the phone, and by February, we probably won't hear from him at all.
即使杰森接电话，他的声音也会听起来更加疲倦，到了二月份，我们可能根本听不到他的消息。
Perhaps they just want to be alone together.
也许他们只是想单独在一起。
Perhaps they've put their trays up, assumed the crash position, and are waiting for impact.
也许他们已经把托盘放起来，采取了碰撞位置，并正在等待撞击。
That's about when I'll begin to get angry at science.
那时我就会开始对科学感到愤怒。
"It's 2010," I'll complain, "and they can't even cure cancer?
“现在是 2010 年了，”我会抱怨道，“他们甚至无法治愈癌症？
How goddamn hard can that be?"
这该死的能有多难？”
By early March, I imagine, I'll start reading philosophy books, the more miserable and convoluted the better, looking for answers.
我想，到了三月初，我就会开始阅读哲学书籍，越痛苦、越复杂越好，寻找答案。
The something something of existence, or the whatever-otics of mortality.
存在的某种东西，或者死亡的任何东西。
I'll go to the information counter at the bookstore and ask for invented titles that sound like the kind of book I'm looking for.
我会去书店的咨询台，索要听起来像我要找的书的发明书名。
Do you have a book called Death Without Sorrow?
有没有一本书叫《无忧无虑的死亡》？
How about Why Life is Relentlessly Cruel and Terminally Oppressive?
为什么生活是无情的残酷和极度的压迫呢？
Not sure of the author.
不确定作者。
My grandfather, Baba's husband, was one of the kindest people in my life.
我的祖父，巴巴的丈夫，是我一生中最善良的人之一。
We called him Zaida.
我们叫他扎伊达。
Zaida always seemed to make the best of any situation, to keep positive even in the face of unrelentingly negative situations.
扎伊达似乎总是能充分利用任何情况，即使面对无情的消极情况也能保持积极的态度。
When Baba's Alzheimer's progressed beyond a manageable point, he moved with her into a home for the aged.
当爸爸的阿尔茨海默氏症发展到无法控制的地步时，他和她一起搬进了敬老院。
She lived upstairs with the patients, and he lived downstairs with the spouses.
她和病人住楼上，他和配偶住楼下。
I was 17 and went to visit them after school on Friday afternoons.
我当时 17 岁，周五下午放学后去拜访他们。
Sometimes sitting in his room beside his bed, you could hear them up there, the demented, the delusional, the dying, yelling and cursing and crying out.
有时坐在他的房间里，床边，你可以听到他们的声音，疯狂的、妄想的、垂死的人，大喊大叫、咒骂和哭泣。
Fortunately, while the patients upstairs were losing their minds, the spouses downstairs were losing their hearing, and there wasn't a television on the floor that wasn't set to maximum volume.
幸运的是，当楼上的病人失去理智时，楼下的配偶却失去了听力，地板上没有一台电视没有调到最大音量。
Zaida would ask me about school and we'd talk about my plans for after graduation.
Zaida 会问我学校的情况，我们会讨论我毕业后的计划。
Baba and Zaida had been married for over 50 years, and he visited her up there every day.
巴巴和扎伊达结婚已经五十多年了，他每天都去那里看望她。
He joked about the nonsensical things she said to him, the insults she flung at the nurses.
他拿她对他说的无意义的话和她对护士的侮辱开玩笑。
He gave me hope.
他给了我希望。
If he could find laughter in this hell, maybe there could be hope for us all.
如果他能在这个地狱里找到笑声，也许我们大家都有希望。
Maybe death didn't have to destroy the life around it.
也许死亡并不一定要摧毁它周围的生命。
And then Baba died.
然后巴巴就死了。
Zaida refused to walk.
扎伊达拒绝行走。
He refused to get out of bed.
他拒绝起床。
One of his toes became gangrenous and the doctors removed it.
他的一个脚趾出现坏疽，医生将其切除。
I went to visit them.
我去拜访他们。
I told him about school and what I planned to do after graduation.
我告诉他学校的情况以及我毕业后打算做什么。
"It's a lie," he said.
“这是一个谎言，”他说。
"What?" I asked.
“什么？”我问。
"The golden years," he replied.
“黄金岁月，”他回答道。
"There's nothing golden about the golden years." And then he died.
“黄金岁月没有什么黄金可言。”然后他死了。
Getting together is not my thing.
聚在一起不是我的事。
I could do without getting together.
我可以不聚在一起。
I'd rather be stuck in an elevator.
我宁愿被困在电梯里。
At least in an elevator, most people agree they'd rather not be there, and there's no obligation to talk.
至少在电梯里，大多数人都同意他们宁愿不在那里，而且没有义务说话。
You're not even really supposed to.
你甚至不应该这样做。
Just find somewhere to stand, shut up, stare at the wall, and it will soon be over, which is basically how I handle get togethers.
只要找个地方站起来，闭嘴，盯着墙壁，很快就会结束，这基本上就是我处理聚会的方式。
By April, though, assuming the doctors were right, Lisa will be dead, and her friends will be getting together with alarming regularity.
然而，到了四月，假设医生是对的，丽莎就会死去，而她的朋友们将以惊人的规律聚会。
Dinners in, dinners out, barbecues, pool parties.
室内晚餐、外出晚餐、烧烤、泳池派对。
I'll have to go, of course, because it will be for Lisa, and it will be what Lisa would have wanted.
当然，我必须去，因为那是为了丽莎，这也是丽莎想要的。
Not that anyone will talk about Lisa.
并不是说有人会谈论丽莎。
In fact, everyone will be careful not to talk about Lisa, because these parties will be about celebrating life, about joy, and friendship, and moving on.
事实上，每个人都会小心地不要谈论丽莎，因为这些聚会将是关于庆祝生活、关于欢乐、友谊以及继续前进。
There will be a lot of laughter.
会有很多笑声。
Too much laughter.
笑声太多了。
That laughter in the face of tragedy kind of laughter that isn't really laughter at all, and which will annoy me, since I work really hard to make people laugh, and here people are getting big laughs just because someone's dead, which shouldn't count.
面对悲剧的笑声根本不是真正的笑声，这会让我恼火，因为我真的很努力让人们笑，而这里的人们仅仅因为有人死了就大笑，这不应该算在内。
Lisa was a vegetarian, and I'll decide to get in on the easy laughter by making some joke about, hey, at least now we don't have to worry about making veggie burgers, am I right?
丽莎是素食主义者，我会决定开一些玩笑来获得轻松的笑声，嘿，至少现在我们不必担心制作素食汉堡，对吗？
There will be uncomfortable silence, and I'll feel like a dick, so I'll find somewhere to stand, shut up, and stare at the wall.
会有令人不舒服的沉默，我会觉得自己像个混蛋，所以我会找个地方站起来，闭嘴，盯着墙壁。
Soon it will be over.
很快就结束了。
By May, it will be almost three months since Lisa died.
到了五月份，丽莎去世已经快三个月了。
In the warmer months, I like to ride my bike to work, but I'll feel guilty passing Lisa's house while engaged in something so healthy and alive, so I'll put my bike in my car, drive past the house, park at the end of the road, and ride from there.
在温暖的月份，我喜欢骑自行车去上班，但当我在从事如此健康和充满活力的事情时经过丽莎的房子时，我会感到内疚，所以我会把自行车放在车里，开车经过房子，停在路的尽头，然后从那里骑车。
It'll be an incredible hassle, and by the middle of May, I'll think about moving.
这将是一个令人难以置信的麻烦，到五月中旬，我会考虑搬家。
I've always liked Seattle.
我一直很喜欢西雅图。
I get over my guilt by June, but Lisa is an avid gardener, and around the middle of the month, her friends will decide that maintaining her garden would be a beautiful and life-affirming gesture, one that Lisa would want.
到了六月，我就克服了愧疚，但丽莎是一位狂热的园丁，大约在月中，她的朋友们会认为维护她的花园将是一种美丽且肯定生命的姿态，这也是丽莎想要的。
They'll start showing up every weekend to weed, prune, and water Lisa's garden.
他们每个周末都会开始给丽莎的花园除草、修剪和浇水。
They'll make a sign, brightly colored, that reads "Lisa's Garden," complete with butterflies, and a rainbow, maybe a sunrise.
他们会制作一个颜色鲜艳的标牌，上面写着“丽莎的花园”，上面有蝴蝶，还有彩虹，也许还有日出。
And by July, there will be at least one of them working there every goddamn day of the week.
到了七月，一周中的每个天都会至少有一个人在那里工作。
By August, I'll feel guilty riding pass them, and I'll have to go back to putting my bike in my car, driving past Lisa's house, parking at the end of the road, and riding from there.
到了八月，我会因为骑车经过他们而感到内疚，我将不得不回去把自行车放进车里，开车经过丽莎的房子，把车停在路的尽头，然后从那里骑车。
When I was a child, my favorite book was called The Five Chinese Brothers.
当我还是个孩子的时候，我最喜欢的书是《中国五兄弟》。
It was about five Chinese brothers who all looked exactly alike.
这是关于五个长得一模一样的中国兄弟的故事。
When the first brother is sentenced to death, the other brothers trade places with him and use their special powers to save his life.
当第一个兄弟被判处死刑时，其他兄弟与他交换位置，并利用他们的特殊能力挽救了他的生命。
One has an iron neck.
一个有铁脖子。
One can stretch his legs.
一个人可以伸展双腿。
One can withstand fire.
一能抵挡火。
One can hold his breath forever.
一个人可以永远屏住呼吸。
The first brother escapes death, and everyone lives happily ever after.
大哥死里逃生，大家从此过上了幸福的生活。
I had a brother who died when he was three.
我有一个兄弟，他三岁时就去世了。
His name was Jeffy.
他的名字叫杰菲。
I hated him.
我恨他。
Jeffy died before I was born, and every dysfunction in my considerably dysfunctional family was blamed on his death, even though he died many years before the dysfunctions actually began.
杰菲在我出生之前就去世了，我这个不正常的家庭中的每一次功能失调都归咎于他的死，尽管他在功能失调真正开始之前很多年就去世了。
In the story of my family, the three Jewish brothers, there are no special powers.
在我的家庭，三个犹太兄弟的故事中，没有特殊的力量。
The first Jewish brother dies.
第一个犹太兄弟去世。
The Jewish father starts to drink.
犹太父亲开始喝酒。
The second Jewish brother comes resent the third Jewish brother.
第二个犹太兄弟开始怨恨第三个犹太兄弟。
The third Jewish brother takes out his feelings of helplessness on the Jewish sister, who is forever being protected by the melodramatic Jewish mother.
第三个犹太兄弟向犹太姐妹发泄了他的无助感，而犹太姐妹永远受到戏剧化的犹太母亲的保护。
The lesson learned was simple.
教训很简单。
Death was something from which you could never move on.
死亡是你永远无法摆脱的事情。
By September, as the Jewish holidays approach, I'll start thinking about God.
到九月，随着犹太节日的临近，我将开始思考上帝。
The Jewish High Holidays are all about sin and guilt, punishment and admonition, hell, death, retribution, vengeance.
犹太教的节日都是关于罪恶和罪孽、惩罚和警告、地狱、死亡、报应、复仇。
It's the most plunderful time of the year.
这是一年中抢劫最多的时候。
I'll consider going to synagogue.
我会考虑去犹太教堂。
I'll wonder if I should be teaching my son more about Judaism.
我想知道我是否应该教我的儿子更多关于犹太教的知识。
Partially out of an irrational sense of tribalism, but mostly out of an irrational sense of fear.
部分是出于非理性的部落主义意识，但主要是出于非理性的恐惧感。
God had taken out Lisa.
上帝带走了丽莎。
Maybe he was just working his way up the road, and I was next.
也许他只是在路上努力，而我就是下一个。
By November, I'll begin to worry about Thanksgiving.
到十一月，我将开始担心感恩节。
We've been spending the past few Thanksgivings at Lisa's parents' house, which is close by.
过去的几个感恩节我们一直在附近的丽莎父母家度过。
Will her parents invite us now that Lisa's passed away?
丽莎去世后，她的父母会邀请我们吗？
It would kind of suck if they didn't, and I would take it personally, assuming that it meant that they didn't really like us all along, but were just inviting us because of their daughter.
如果他们不这样做，那就有点糟糕了，我会认为这是针对我个人的，假设这意味着他们一直并不真正喜欢我们，而只是因为他们的女儿而邀请我们。
I'll obsess about it all month long, and then in mid-November, when they do invite us, I'll obsess about the awkwardness of the meal, now that Lisa won't be there.
我会为此困扰整整一个月，然后在十一月中旬，当他们邀请我们时，我会为这顿饭的尴尬而困扰，因为丽莎不在那里。
They'll probably invite lots of Lisa's friends, thinking that will make it less awkward, but they won't know how sick I am of all her friends already, thereby making a bad situation worse.
他们可能会邀请很多丽莎的朋友，认为这样可以减轻尴尬，但他们不会知道我已经对她所有的朋友感到厌烦了，从而使本来就糟糕的情况变得更糟。
I'll ask my wife if I can skip the dinner.
我会问我妻子是否可以不吃晚餐。
She'll look at me with the usual disappointment.
她会像往常一样失望地看着我。
A few weeks before my grandfather died, my mother asked me to go visit him.
祖父去世前几周，母亲让我去看望他。
His spirits were down.
他的情绪很低落。
He was refusing treatment and he was talking about wanting to die.
他拒绝接受治疗，并且说他想死。
I expected to find a miserable old man bitching about life in the golden years, but I didn't.
我本以为在黄金岁月里会遇到一个悲惨的老人抱怨生活，但我没有。
He'd been miserable in bemoaning death, but he was at peace in having accepted it.
他因哀叹死亡而痛苦，但因接受死亡而感到平静。
"I have dozens of grandchildren," he said, "and countless great-grandchildren.
“我有几十个孙子，”他说，“还有无数的曾孙。
I've had a wonderful life and leave behind a beautiful family."
我度过了美好的生活，留下了一个美好的家庭。”
"So why do you want to die?" I asked.
“那你为什么想死？”我问。
"Because my pearl is gone," he said, referring to Baba.
“因为我的珍珠不见了，”他说，指的是巴巴。
"I just don't want to be here without her." He wasn't sad.
“我只是不想在这里没有她。”他并不悲伤。
He wasn't morose.
他并不郁闷。
He was done.
他已经完成了。
A few weeks ago, Lisa refused her doctor's advice to go through yet another round of chemotherapy.
几周前，丽莎拒绝了医生进行另一轮化疗的建议。
A close friend of hers died recently, also of cancer, also after having been given a few months to live.
她的一位密友最近也因癌症去世，同样在只剩下几个月的生命后去世。
Her friend did chemo to the end.
她的朋友化疗到最后。
The chemo left her nauseous, tired, weak.
化疗让她感到恶心、疲倦、虚弱。
It would have bought her another month, tops.
这本来可以为她多争取一个月的时间。
Sometimes the problem isn't death.
有时问题不是死亡。
it's holding on too dearly to life.
它对生活太执着了。
Zaida was done.
扎伊达完成了。
Lisa is done too.
丽莎也完成了。
She wants to walk her dogs, and have dinner with some friends, and maybe even take a last long walk through her garden.
她想遛狗，和一些朋友一起吃晚饭，甚至可能在她的花园里进行最后一次长时间的散步。
And then if death comes, it comes.
如果死亡来了，它就来了。
By December, I'll be glad to see the year coming to an end.
到十二月，我会很高兴看到这一年即将结束。
I'll be looking forward to getting on with things.
我会期待着继续做事。
Nearly 12 months or so will have passed since Lisa died, and that will feel like an accomplishment.
丽莎去世已经过去了近 12 个月左右，这会让人感觉是一项成就。
Someone will no doubt decide to have a one year memorial party in Lisa's honor, because that's what Lisa would have wanted, and will leave a message on our answering machine with a time and date, sounding all cheery and excited, but almost too cheery and too excited, because Lisa, after all, is dead.
毫无疑问，有人会决定为丽莎举办一年纪念聚会，因为这就是丽莎想要的，并且会在我们的答录机上留言，注明时间和日期，听起来很高兴和兴奋，但几乎太高兴和太兴奋了，因为丽莎毕竟死了。
And for a moment I'll feel like I have to go, because, hey, it's for Lisa.
有那么一刻，我觉得我必须离开，因为，嘿，这是为了丽莎。
But they'll realize, you know what?
但他们会意识到，你知道吗？
It's been a year, all right?
已经一年了，好吗？
Why don't you all go to hell.
为什么你们不都下地狱。
And I'll tell my wife I don't want to go.
我会告诉我的妻子我不想去。
And by this time, instead of the usual disappointment, she'll look at me and say "Christ, me neither." So we'll lie to everyone and say we're going away on vacation even though we're not, and we'll just make sure to stay out of town for a few days so nobody sees us.
这时，她不会像往常那样失望，而是看着我说：“天啊，我也一样。”所以我们会对每个人撒谎，说我们要去度假，尽管我们实际上并没有，而且我们会确保在城外呆几天，这样就没有人看到我们了。
Which is exactly what Lisa would have wanted.
这正是丽莎想要的。
Shalom Auslander.
沙洛姆·奥斯兰德.
He's the author, most recently, of the book Foreskin's Lament.
他最近是《包皮的哀歌》一书的作者。
When we were all talking about what to include in this week's show and where we would find interesting predictions for 2010, we realized that teachers are constantly making predictions for the coming year.
当我们都在讨论本周节目中要包含哪些内容以及在哪里可以找到 2010 年有趣的预测时，我们意识到老师们不断地对来年做出预测。
A good public school teacher has an ongoing diagnosis of where each of their students is and where each of their students is going to end up in June.
一位优秀的公立学校老师会持续诊断每个学生的情况以及每个学生在六月份的最终去向。
Like if I was to show you Lewis' writing, it does not make sense whatsoever.
就像如果我向你展示刘易斯的作品一样，它毫无意义。
Samantha Cato teaches reading and writing to sixth graders at Public School 303 in the Bronx.
Samantha Cato 在布朗克斯公立学校 303 教六年级学生阅读和写作。
And she's talking about one of her students, Lewis de la Cruz, who has trouble organizing his ideas when he writes.
她正在谈论她的一位学生刘易斯·德拉克鲁兹（Lewis de la Cruz），他在写作时很难组织自己的想法。
Even listening to Lewis, he's all over the place.
即使听刘易斯的讲话，他也表现得很出色。
So where do you want him to be at the end of the year with his reading and writing, and where do you think he will be at the end of the year?
那么你希望他在年底时的阅读和写作水平如何？你认为他年底时会达到什么水平？
I would like, truthfully, for Lewis to write two to three sentences that go together and make sense.
说实话，我希望刘易斯能写出两到三个连在一起且有意义的句子。
And I really do think he can achieve that.
我确实认为他能够实现这一目标。
I don't know if that's necessarily on grade level, but it's a big step from where we are.
我不知道这是否一定是在年级水平上，但这距离我们现在的水平迈出了一大步。
When it comes to reading, she hopes to have him reading and understanding everything at a fourth grade level.
在阅读方面，她希望他能够阅读并理解四年级水平的所有内容。
But of course, to accomplish that by June 2010, she's going to have to get him to sit in his seat.
当然，要在 2010 年 6 月之前实现这一目标，她必须让他坐在自己的座位上。
Lewis began the year as the most disruptive student in the class.
刘易斯在新学年开始时是班上最具破坏性的学生。
And to deal with that, Ms. Cato and one of the other sixth grade teachers, Ms. Subramaniam, came up with their most ingenious invention-- Lewis time.
为了解决这个问题，卡托女士和其他一位六年级老师苏布拉马尼亚姆女士想出了他们最巧妙的发明——刘易斯时间。
Generally, Lewis time begins with Lewis pretending to be a teacher.
一般来说，刘易斯时间是从刘易斯假装成老师开始的。
This is Ms. Subramaniam.
这是苏布拉马尼亚姆女士。
Shraddha Subramaniam It's really cute.
Shraddha Subramaniam 真的很可爱。
Sometimes he starts with, "Good morning, boys and girls."
有时他会这样开头：“早上好，孩子们。”
This morning I visited the last school day before Christmas break.
今天早上我参观了圣诞假期前的最后一个教学日。
And at Ms. Subramaniam's request, Lewis has agreed to do a special 2010 prediction edition of Lewis Time with his predictions for the coming year.
应 Subramaniam 女士的要求，刘易斯同意制作一个特别的 2010 年刘易斯时间预测版，其中包含他对来年的预测。
In 2010, I want to be a famous basketball player in my team.
2010年，我想成为我队里的一名著名篮球运动员。
Lewis also predicted a trip that will take him around the world and to Antarctica, where he says he would drink hot chocolate and chill with all the birds.
刘易斯还预测他将环游世界并前往南极洲，在那里他会喝热巧克力并与所有的鸟类一起放松。
Lewis time came about one morning this fall when everybody was still unpacking their stuff and settling in.
今年秋天的一天早上，刘易斯时间到来了，当时每个人都还在打开行李并安顿下来。
Lewis popped up at the front of the room, announced, "It's Lewis time," and put on a little show.
刘易斯突然出现在房间前面，宣布：“刘易斯时间到了”，并进行了一场小表演。
His teachers, sensing opportunity, decided to turn Lewis time into a reward.
他的老师们看到了机会，决定把刘易斯的时间变成奖励。
Lewis would get to do Lewis time in the morning if he were good the day before, which meant that he--
如果刘易斯前一天表现良好，他就可以在早上进行刘易斯时间，这意味着他——
Stayed in his seat and stuff like that.
留在座位上之类的。
And we actually discussed with him, what are the things that you do that are not helping the class learn?
我们实际上和他讨论过，你所做的哪些事情对班级学习没有帮助？
And he listed everything.
他列出了一切。
He said, I don't finish my work and I do things to get attention.
他说，我不完成我的工作，我做事是为了引起注意。
It was pretty amazing how self-aware he was.
令人惊讶的是他有如此的自我意识。
Sometimes we let the class vote on whether Lewis should have Lewis time.
有时我们让全班投票决定刘易斯是否应该有刘易斯时间。
And they're pretty objective about it.
他们对此非常客观。
I mean, they love that five minutes of the morning, so they all want it, but they are very willing to acknowledge when he doesn't deserve it.
我的意思是，他们喜欢早上的那五分钟，所以他们都想要它，但当他不值得时，他们非常愿意承认。
Now we're going to sing for Lewis time.
现在我们要唱刘易斯时间。
Who's ready?
谁准备好了吗？
All right.
好的。
So [?
所以 [？
Jansen, ?] give me the beat.
詹森，？] 给我节拍。
Lewis time!
路易斯时间！
Lewis time to 8:25.
刘易斯时间到了8点25分。
Everybody loves Lewis time.
每个人都喜欢刘易斯时间。
In fact, everybody does love Lewis time.
事实上，每个人都喜欢刘易斯时间。
When he asks for suggestions of participation, hands fly up in the air.
当他询问参与建议时，他的双手举了起来。
Twice in the past, he's called for backup dancers, and each time, three girls stood up and joined him and improvised dance numbers.
过去，他曾两次召集伴舞，每次都有三个女孩站起来加入他的即兴舞蹈。
Can I ask you, what do you think of Lewis time?
我能问你，你对刘易斯时间有什么看法吗？
If you didn't catch that, she said his grandmother throws farts when she wakes up.
如果你没听清的话，她说他的祖母醒来时会放屁。
Sorry, grandma.
对不起，奶奶。
She was like, mmmm.
她就像，嗯。
you know how grandmas are.
你知道奶奶是怎样的人。
Lewis time, till 8:25.
刘易斯时间，直到8点25分。
Lewis time, till 8:25.
刘易斯时间，直到8点25分。
It's over!
结束了！
Has it changed his behavior?
这改变了他的行为吗？
Student 2 Yes, a lot.
学生2 是的，很多。
He used to behave really bad.
他以前的行为真的很糟糕。
He used to talk back to the teachers.
他常常和老师顶嘴。
He was really doing bad.
他确实做得不好。
He would just get up on his seat when he wants something.
当他想要什么时，他就会站起来坐在座位上。
Of course, Lewis is just one of 35 students in this class, and there are over 100 sixth graders.
当然，刘易斯只是这个班35名学生之一，六年级的学生有100多人。
And Ms. Subramaniam and Ms. Cato have predictions for where each of them is going to be in June, and a plan for each student.
Subramaniam 女士和 Cato 女士对六月的行程进行了预测，并为每个学生制定了计划。
A plan that in this class, the students actually write out themselves.
在这堂课上，学生们实际上自己写出了一个计划。
In other words, every one of these students has his or her own much quieter version of Lewis Time.
换句话说，这些学生中的每一位都有自己更安静的刘易斯时间版本。
Coming up.
即将到来。
The President of the United States who's going to be born in the year 2010.
即将于 2010 年出生的美国总统。
That's in a minute from Chicago Public Radio and Public Radio International when our program continues.
一分钟后，芝加哥公共广播电台和国际公共广播电台将继续我们的节目。
It's This American Life.
这就是美国生活。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Each week on our show, of course, we choose a theme, bring you different kinds of stories on that theme.
当然，我们的节目每周都会选择一个主题，为您带来有关该主题的不同类型的故事。
Today's show, 2010.
今天的节目，2010年。
We asked people to predict with as much exactitude as possible things that will happen in their lives and the lives of the people around them in the coming year.
我们要求人们尽可能准确地预测来年他们和周围人的生活中将发生的事情。
We've arrived at act three of our show.
我们已经到了演出的第三幕了。
Jonathan Menjivar has spent a remarkable amount of time thinking about the coming events of 2010.
Jonathan Menjivar 花费了大量时间思考 2010 年即将发生的事件。
One event in particular.
特别是一件事。
POTUS will have dark, wavy hair.
总统将有一头深色的卷发。
Her eyes will be brown, unless they're green, or maybe hazel.
她的眼睛将是棕色的，除非它们是绿色的，或者可能是淡褐色的。
She will have full lips.
她将拥有丰满的嘴唇。
She will not be tall, which is a nice way of saying that she might be short.
她不会很高，这是一个很好的说法，她可能很矮。
Because of this fact, POTUS will not like going to concerts, because like my wife Hillary, she'll only be able to see the backs of other people's heads and that spot on a person's back between their shoulder blades.
正因为如此，美国总统不会喜欢去听音乐会，因为像我的妻子希拉里一样，她只能看到别人的后脑勺以及一个人后背肩胛骨之间的那个地方。
Someday when she touches that spot on a person she loves, it will feel oddly familiar and comforting, because all her life, while standing in line at the swings, or waiting for a cashier to ring up her milk, she will have looked at that spot on other people.
有一天，当她触摸她所爱的人身上的那个地方时，会感到奇怪的熟悉和安慰，因为她一生中，在秋千上排队，或者等待收银员给她的牛奶打电话时，她都会看着其他人身上的那个地方。
Because she will be our daughter, POTUS will like chocolate ice cream and enjoy puns.
因为她将成为我们的女儿，美国总统会喜欢巧克力冰淇淋并喜欢双关语。
She will need glasses by third grade.
到三年级时她就需要戴眼镜了。
POTUS, I should explain, is what Hillary and I have taken to calling the little girl Hillary will give birth to in 2010.
我要解释一下，POTUS 是希拉里和我对希拉里将在 2010 年生下的小女孩的称呼。
Calling our kid "it" only felt right for about a week or two, so we brainstormed baby code names one night in bed.
称我们的孩子为“它”只感觉合适一两周，所以我们有一天晚上在床上集思广益地讨论了婴儿的代号。
Hillary thought the name should be something like that opening scene in the West Wing pilot, the one where Rob Lowe walks out of the shower, and a woman in underwear and a men's dress shirt reads from his pager, "POTUS in a bicycle accident." Hillary said our code name should pop like that, but we couldn't think of anything as cool as POTUS, so we just stole it.
希拉里认为这个名字应该类似于《西翼》试播集的开场场景，罗布·劳走出淋浴间，一名穿着内衣和男式正装衬衫的女人从他的传呼机上读到“美国总统遭遇自行车事故”。希拉里说我们的代号应该这样流行，但我们想不出像 POTUS 这样酷的东西，所以我们就偷了它。
I worried that while POTUS was still nothing more than cells splitting into other cells that we might be setting unachievable expectations by naming her the acronym the Secret Service use to refer to the President of the United States.
我担心，虽然美国总统仍然只不过是分裂成其他细胞的细胞，但我们用特勤局用来指代美国总统的缩写来命名她，可能会设定无法实现的期望。
When people find out you're having a baby, they predict all kinds of things about the child you'll have.
当人们发现您怀孕了时，他们会预测您将生下的孩子的各种情况。
But I wanted to let POTUS tell us who she was, so I tried to cling mostly to the facts.
但我想让美国总统告诉我们她是谁，所以我尽量坚持事实。
20 weeks into Hillary's pregnancy, we went in for an ultrasound.
希拉里怀孕 20 周后，我们去做了超声波检查。
Our ultrasound technician looked like Kate from Jon & Kate Plus 8 in scrubs.
我们的超声波技师看起来就像 Jon & Kate Plus 8 中穿着磨砂膏的 Kate。
She had that crazy hairdo and everything.
她有着疯狂的发型和一切。
We asked if she could tell the gender of the baby, and she said, "It's a girl." She said it with the same level of enthusiasm I use to tell Hillary that we got a gas bill in the mail.
我们问她是否能看出孩子的性别，她说：“是个女孩。”她说这番话时的热情与我告诉希拉里我们收到了邮寄的煤气费账单时一样热情。
Knowing that POTUS was a girl meant that now there was a shape to the mystery.
知道总统是个女孩意味着现在这个谜团已经有了雏形。
The ultrasound gave us the lines of a coloring book, and we couldn't help but fill them in.
超声波给了我们一本涂色书的线条，我们情不自禁地把它们填满了。
Hillary remembered all the stuff about dominant and recessive genes that I slept through in my high school biology class, and we thought about our friend Michelle, a biologist who spends her days working with fruit fly genes.
希拉里还记得我在高中生物课上睡过的所有关于显性和隐性基因的知识，我们想到了我们的朋友米歇尔，一位整天研究果蝇基因的生物学家。
I don't really understand what it is she does, exactly, except that it has something to do with diabetes.
我不太明白她到底在做什么，只知道这与糖尿病有关。
And this summer, when I was having a fruit fly infestation, she didn't have any suggestions for how I could capture or kill them.
今年夏天，当我遭遇果蝇侵扰时，她没有给我任何关于如何捕获或杀死它们的建议。
I thought maybe Michelle could help us figure out what POTUS might look like.
我想也许米歇尔可以帮助我们弄清楚美国总统可能是什么样子。
She said she'd do her best, but that this stuff was more complicated in humans than what I was imagining.
她说她会尽力而为，但人类的事情比我想象的要复杂。
She also told me that there was a great paper published in Science recently about the genetics of dog coats, and that if we were breeding a dog instead of a little girl, she could be really helpful.
她还告诉我，《科学》杂志最近发表了一篇关于狗皮毛遗传学的精彩论文，如果我们饲养一只狗而不是一个小女孩，她可能会很有帮助。
So Michelle came over to our house, and in exchange for lasagna and a beer, she sat with me and drew Punnett squares, those little squares divided into four smaller squares that are supposed to help you figure out what traits win over others.
于是米歇尔来到我们家，作为烤宽面条和啤酒的交换，她和我坐在一起画了庞内特方块，这些小方块被分成四个更小的方块，应该可以帮助你找出哪些特质胜过其他人。
Michelle was willing to commit to a few things, like the fact that POTUS will likely have dark hair.
米歇尔愿意承诺一些事情，比如总统可能会有黑头发。
But really, she said, even if she was able to study me and Hillary in a lab, she couldn't tell us with any certainty what our baby will look like.
但实际上，她说，即使她能够在实验室里研究我和希拉里，她也无法确定地告诉我们我们的孩子会是什么样子。
Because unlike dogs, humans haven't been bred for certain traits, so there's really no way of knowing what green eyes may be hiding in my genes.
因为与狗不同，人类并没有因为某些特征而被培育出来，所以真的没有办法知道我的基因中可能隐藏着什么绿眼睛。
Mostly, she said, the whole dominant-recessive thing could help us figure out dopey stuff.
她说，大多数情况下，显性与隐性的关系可以帮助我们找出愚蠢的东西。
Like for instance, now we know that POTUS will have unattached earlobes and be able to impress her friends with her ability to roll her tongue like a taco.
举例来说，现在我们知道总统将有独立的耳垂，并且能够像卷玉米卷一样卷起舌头，给她的朋友留下深刻的印象。
A few months ago, not long after we found out that POTUS was a girl, I was riding my bike home from work.
几个月前，就在我们发现总统是个女孩后不久，我下班骑自行车回家。
The traffic was heavy, so I was going pretty slow.
交通很拥挤，所以我走得很慢。
I looked to my right and noticed a girl on the sidewalk looking at me.
我向右看，发现人行道上有一个女孩在看着我。
Staring, really.
盯着看，真的。
She looked like she was in her early 20s and she had her auburn hair tied in a thick braid that swung over her right shoulder.
她看起来二十岁出头，赤褐色的头发扎成一条粗辫子，垂在右肩上。
I can't remember if she was wearing glasses, but I know she was wearing a dress and holding a petition clipboard in her right hand.
我不记得她是否戴眼镜，但我知道她穿着裙子，右手拿着请愿书板。
If skin was made of Play-Doh, hers was what you would get if you forever mixed the Hillary color with the Jonathan one.
如果皮肤是培乐多泥做的，那么如果你永远把希拉里的肤色和乔纳森的肤色混合在一起，你就会得到她的皮肤。
I couldn't tell you if it was that or the way she looked at me intently that's to blame, but I stared back.
我无法告诉你是因为这个还是她专注地看着我的方式，但我也凝视着我。
And for a split second, I thought she might be POTUS, all grown up.
有那么一瞬间，我以为她可能是美国总统，已经长大了。
I wanted to ask her so much, how's school?
我很想问她，学校怎么样？
Do you live around here?
你住在这附近吗？
What do you like more, seeing fireflies for the first time in the summer or the first fat snowflakes in winter?
你更喜欢夏天第一次看到萤火虫还是冬天第一次看到雪花？
Really, though, every question was some variation on the one big question I'll try my whole life to make POTUS answer yes to.
不过，实际上，每个问题都是一个大问题的变体，我将尽一生努力让总统回答“是”。
Are you happy?
你快乐吗？
It's also, I realize, a question I can't predict the answer to.
我意识到，这也是一个我无法预测答案的问题。
Jonathan Menjivar is one of the producers of the radio show Fresh Air in Philadelphia.
乔纳森·门吉瓦尔 (Jonathan Menjivar) 是费城广播节目《新鲜空气》的制作人之一。
Act Four.
第四幕。
"Nostra-Mom-Us." For our next predictions for 2010, we leave the United States, and we turn to one of our regular contributors, Etgar Keret, who lives in Tel Aviv.
“我们——我们妈妈”。对于 2010 年的下一个预测，我们离开美国，转向我们的定期撰稿人之一、住在特拉维夫的 Etgar Keret。
I live in a family of predictors, but they're mostly predictable predictors.
我生活在一个充满预测的家庭中，但他们大多是可预测的预测。
With my ultra-Orthodox sister, it always comes down to the messiah being just around the corner.
对于我极端正统的妹妹来说，弥赛亚总是指日可待。
While with my anarchist brother, it's more along the lines of a blissful economic catastrophe that will liberate this planet from its social injustice.
和我的无政府主义兄弟在一起时，这更像是一场幸福的经济灾难，它将把这个星球从社会不公正中解放出来。
My four year old son Lev predicted next year I'll be moving out of his apartment, and he'll finally get some quality bedtime with his mother without me snoring in the background.
我四岁的儿子列夫（Lev）预测明年我将搬出他的公寓，他终于可以和他的母亲一起享受优质的就寝时间，而不会听到我打鼾的声音。
And there's my dad.
还有我爸爸。
But he being one-track minded, will reply to any question with his usual pitch about how our entire family should buy a piece of land, build a huge mansion, and live in it together, hippie-style, minus the sex and drugs.
但他头脑单一，会用他一贯的说法来回答任何问题，即我们全家应该如何购买一块土地，建造一座巨大的豪宅，并以嬉皮士风格一起生活，远离性和毒品。
The only person in the family who is a good predictor is my mom.
家里唯一擅长预测的人是我妈妈。
So prediction-wise, I'm stuck with her.
所以从预测角度来看，我还是支持她。
This woman told me when I was 12 years old that my favorite soccer club would never win any title, and the last 30 years have proven her right.
当我 12 岁时，这位女士告诉我，我最喜欢的足球俱乐部永远不会赢得任何冠军，过去 30 年证明她是对的。
She also predicted that my brother's first marriage would end in divorce.
她还预言我哥哥的第一次婚姻将以离婚告终。
Admittedly, my future sister-in-law called the wedding "religious performance art," sold tickets to it, and during the ceremony, insisted on breast feeding a porcupine.
诚然，我未来的嫂子称这场婚礼为“宗教表演艺术”，并出售门票，并在仪式期间坚持母乳喂养豪猪。
So maybe it should have been clear to all of us what was coming.
所以也许我们所有人都应该清楚接下来会发生什么。
But I was at that wedding too, and I was willing to bet a porcupine that they would stay together forever.
但我也参加了那场婚礼，我愿意和豪猪打赌，他们会永远在一起。
And then about four years ago, my mother predicted her next door neighbor's heart attack.
大约四年前，我母亲预测她的隔壁邻居会心脏病发作。
Some people may see this incident as more of a curse than an ability.
有些人可能认为这件事更多的是一种诅咒而不是一种能力。
Still, this woman has powers.
不过，这个女人还是有实力的。
So when I'm asked to give a prediction about Israel and the Middle East for 2010, I go running to mommy.
因此，当我被要求对 2010 年以色列和中东做出预测时，我跑去找妈妈。
Mom, they've asked me for this American radio show to give my prediction about what's going to happen in Israel next year and its [UNINTELLIGIBLE]..
妈妈，他们要求我在这个美国广播节目中对明年以色列将发生的事情及其[无法理解]做出预测。
So I thought I'd come and ask for your help.
所以我想我应该来寻求你的帮助。
Do you have any visions about the future?
您对未来有什么愿景吗？
Yes, I do.
是的，我愿意。
Unfortunately, they are not very nice.
不幸的是，他们不是很好。
We are going back to bad times.
我们又回到了糟糕的时代。
It will be a third intifada.
这将是第三次起义。
The third one won't be so free like they are.
第三个不会像他们那么自由。
We won't be able to walk in the evening.
晚上我们就不能走路了。
You don't know what will hit you.
你不知道什么会击中你。
Because all the crazy people from both sides will show their hand.
因为双方所有疯狂的人都会亮出手来。
And then it will be very difficult to live in this country.
那么在这个国家生活将会非常困难。
So now I want to do something that is very intuitive.
所以现在我想做一些非常直观的事情。
So I'll just say a word, and you say the first thing that comes to your mind.
所以我就说一句话，你就说你想到的第一句话。
Well, what about him?
那么，他呢？
Etgar Keret How would Israel look different if there would be no God, if everybody's decision would be atheist?
Etgar Keret 如果没有上帝，如果每个人的决定都是无神论者，以色列看起来会有何不同？
It's impossible to think of.
这是不可能想到的。
Etgar Keret So God these days is part of the equation.
Etgar Keret 所以现在上帝是这个等式的一部分。
We can't take him out.
我们不能带他出去。
No way, no way.
没办法，没办法。
Middle East without God doesn't exist.
没有上帝的中东是不存在的。
There's no such thing.
没有这样的事。
And the year of 2010 for me, for Etgar, what do you think is going to happen to me in 2010.
2010 年对我来说，对 Etgar 来说，你认为 2010 年我会发生什么？
Oh, you're going to flourish.
哦，你会蓬勃发展。
This is your year.
这是属于你的一年。
Can you try and build a solid case for that, just so I'll feel better?
你能尝试为此建立一个可靠的案例，这样我会感觉好一点吗？
You write a book.
你写一本书。
You direct a film.
你导演一部电影。
And you'll be a success.
你会成功的。
And hopefully, my grandson Lev will have a sister or a brother, and I'll be very happy.
希望我的孙子 Lev 会有一个姐妹或兄弟，我会很高兴。
Our family will be fine.
我们一家人都会好起来的。
Thank you, mother.
谢谢你，妈妈。
Here is the bottom line for my mother's 2010 prediction.
这是我母亲对 2010 年预测的底线。
The region is going to burn.
该地区即将被烧毁。
People will die.
人们会死。
And somehow, things are going to be horrible for everyone but me.
不知何故，除了我之外，每个人都会经历可怕的事情。
Sorry everyone.
对不起大家。
I guess my mother's gut is telling her that our country, our wold, is going down the drain.
我猜我母亲的直觉告诉她，我们的国家、我们的世界正在走向下水道。
But her heart just can't admit I'm part of that world.
但她的心就是不承认我是那个世界的一部分。
Since I just started saving money for my four year old son's college education in a region where an innocent word like "tomorrow" sounds dangerously hopeful, I'm for sure my mother's son.
由于我刚刚开始为我四岁儿子的大学教育存钱，在这个地区，“明天”这样的天真的词听起来充满危险的希望，所以我确信我母亲的儿子。
Etgar Keret.
埃特加·凯雷特。
His most recent book of short stories translated into English is The Girl On the Fridge.
他最近翻译成英文的短篇小说集是《冰箱上的女孩》。
Act Five.
第五幕。
"Funny You Don't Look Two-Ish."
“真有趣，你看起来不像二人。”
The biggest question that lots of us have about 2010 is, is the economy finally going to get better?
2010 年，我们很多人面临的最大问题是，经济最终会好起来吗？
Well, making predictions about that is a very big business.
嗯，对此进行预测是一项非常大的业务。
Economists at every government in the world, every state in the union, at big banks and big private companies, have spent the last couple weeks finishing up their 2010 forecast.
世界各国政府、联邦各州、大银行和大型私营公司的经济学家在过去几周内完成了他们对 2010 年的预测。
It's probably hundreds of thousands of man hours and hundreds of millions of dollars devoted to seeing into the future.
可能需要数十万工时和数亿美元来展望未来。
And knowing that we're all going to be hearing these forecasts in the news around this time of year, for our last story on today's show, we asked Alex Blumberg and Adam Davidson to explain to us what do these forecasters know and what don't they know?
知道我们都会在每年的这个时候在新闻中听到这些预测，在今天节目的最后一个故事中，我们请亚历克斯·布隆伯格和亚当·戴维森向我们解释这些预测者知道什么，不知道什么？
We asked around.
我们四处打听。
We asked former Fed officials and big shots at major banks.
我们询问了前美联储官员和主要银行的大人物。
And they told us if money is no object and you really want to know the economic future, here's who you call.
他们告诉我们，如果钱不是问题，并且您确实想了解经济未来，那么您可以联系以下人员。
A firm named Macroeconomic Advisers and its forecasting wunderkind, Joel Prakken.
一家名为宏观经济顾问公司（Macroeconomic Advisers）的公司及其预测神童乔尔·普拉肯（Joel Prakken）。
The Department of Treasury is a client of ours.
财政部是我们的客户。
The Office of Management and Budget.
管理和预算办公室。
The CBO.
国会预算办公室。
The Federal Reserve Board is a client of ours.
美联储是我们的客户。
Many of the regional Federal Reserve banks.
许多地区联邦储备银行。
Many central banks from around the world are clients of ours, in fact.
事实上，世界各地的许多中央银行都是我们的客户。
Almost any household name on Wall Street is a client of ours.
华尔街几乎所有家喻户晓的名字都是我们的客户。
Right.
正确的。
What makes Macroeconomic Advisers so special is their computer model that they've made of the entire U.S. economy.
宏观经济顾问之所以如此特别，是因为他们建立了整个美国经济的计算机模型。
Now of course, a lot of forecasters use computer models, but theirs is unusually comprehensive.
当然，现在很多预测者都使用计算机模型，但他们的模型异常全面。
This has been Joel Prakken's life's work.
这是乔尔·普拉肯 (Joel Prakken) 一生的工作。
He's been carefully studying how different parts of the economy affect each other.
他一直在仔细研究经济的不同部分如何相互影响。
You know, if you think about it, it's pretty obvious that if average wages go up, if people make more money, they'll buy more stuff.
你知道，如果你仔细想想，很明显，如果平均工资上涨，如果人们赚更多的钱，他们就会买更多的东西。
But how much more stuff?
但还有多少东西呢？
That is where Joel's model comes in.
这就是乔尔模型的用武之地。
If wages go up by, say, 4%, how many more cars will people buy?
如果工资上涨 4%，人们会多购买多少辆汽车？
And what will that do to the inflation rate?
这会对通货膨胀率产生什么影响？
And how will the inflation rate affect home sales?
通货膨胀率将如何影响房屋销售？
In an economy, everything is connected.
在经济中，一切都是相互联系的。
Everything is related.
一切都是相关的。
And for the past 28 years, Joel has been figuring out those exact relationships and writing those relationships down in a series of equations which he shows us.
在过去的 28 年里，乔尔一直在找出这些确切的关系，并将这些关系写在他向我们展示的一系列方程中。
And in the world of economic forecasting, showing us those equations is like showing us the secret recipe for Coca-Cola.
在经济预测领域，向我们展示这些方程就像向我们展示可口可乐的秘密配方。
Although frankly, Prakken's a lot less worried about the secret getting out than Coca-Cola is.
但坦率地说，普拉肯不像可口可乐那样担心秘密泄露。
He's very happy to show us his equations, because what are we going to do, steal them?
他很高兴向我们展示他的方程式，因为我们要做什么，窃取它们？
We can't even understand them.
我们甚至无法理解他们。
If we scroll down a little bit further to look at some of the equations--
如果我们再向下滚动一点看一些方程——
What?
什么？
Joel Prakken Yeah, OK.
乔尔·普拉肯 是的，好的。
So here is an equation-- yeah.
所以这是一个等式——是的。
So--
所以——
It does get worse.
情况确实变得更糟。
Adam Davidson So to get at what this equation looks like on the radio, I'm going to read it.
Adam Davidson 为了了解这个方程在广播中的样子，我将阅读它。
It says ECDO over KCDO subscript negative one equals--
它说 ECDO 对 KCDO 下标负一等于——
Which means last period's, minus one.
这意味着上一期减一。
That subscript minus one means last period's KCDO.
下标减一表示上一期的 KCDO。
OK.
好的。
Equals 0.16 plus 0.006008 times DUM 92 plus 4.447867 times the change in KH plus--
等于 0.16 加 0.006008 倍 DUM 92 加 4.447867 倍 KH 变化加上--
The log of KH.
KH 的日志。
Adam Davidson Oh, the log of KH.
Adam Davidson 哦，KH 的日志。
So don't miss that.
所以不要错过这个。
Adam Davidson Plus 17 over, I don't even know what--
Adam Davidson Plus 17 结束了，我什至不知道是什么——
Sigma.
西格玛。
That's the sum of alpha of the change--
这是变化的 alpha 总和——
Right.
对。
One of you remembers your Greek.
你们中的一个人记得你的希腊语。
It's the summation.
这是总结。
Right.
正确的。
And I didn't even get done reading the equation.
我什至没有读完方程式。
There's still a whole other line.
还有另外一条线。
Now, I just want to point out, also.
现在，我也想指出。
So this one page here-- there are, what?
所以这一页——有什么？
I'm looking at the pdf.
我正在看pdf。
It says there's 400--
据说有400个——
You're on page 49 of 447.
您正在浏览第 49 页（共 447 页）。
Adam Davidson Somewhere an economics grad student is listening to that and thinking, "oh, you SUM alpha to an n of 17!" Right?
亚当·戴维森（Adam Davidson） 某处，一位经济学研究生正在听着这句话，心想：“哦，你对 17 的 n 进行 alpha 求和！”正确的？
Joe let us play around with his model.
乔让我们玩弄他的模型。
And it was fun.
这很有趣。
It was like as much fun as I've ever had with a computer screen full of numbers.
这就像我在充满数字的电脑屏幕上享受到的乐趣一样。
You can change one thing and watch the effect ripple out throughout the economy.
你可以改变一件事，然后观察其影响波及整个经济。
Like we made Joel pretend a war broke out in Saudi Arabia and the average price of oil went from $70 to $100.
就像我们让乔尔假装沙特阿拉伯爆发了战争，石油的平均价格从 70 美元涨到了 100 美元。
Boom!
繁荣！
Unemployment went up for the next three years.
接下来三年失业率持续上升。
It's like a real world Sim game, sort of.
这有点像现实世界的模拟游戏。
And Joel says that sometimes even his clients want to play.
乔尔说，有时甚至他的客户也想玩。
They're constantly asking him to show the worst worst case scenarios.
他们不断地要求他展示最坏的情况。
What if everything goes wrong?
如果一切都不顺利怎么办？
He's not actually sure this helps them plan anything, but he does it for them.
他实际上不确定这有助于他们计划任何事情，但他是为他们做的。
Now, most of the data Prakken plugs into his model is free.
现在，Prakken 插入模型的大部分数据都是免费的。
Anyone can download it from government websites.
任何人都可以从政府网站下载。
And you'd think that the data would be the simple part of all this.
您可能会认为数据是这一切中最简单的部分。
There's no fancy math.
没有什么花哨的数学。
It's just facts.
这只是事实。
Like how many people were unemployed in 2008, for example.
例如，2008 年有多少人失业。
But it turns out, even the data is not simple.
但事实证明，就连数据也不简单。
And this points to a big problem in forecasting.
这指出了预测中的一个大问题。
Joel was showing us how he puts new data into the model, and this was data from a government agency called the BEA, the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
乔尔向我们展示了他如何将新数据放入模型中，这些数据来自一个名为 BEA（经济分析局）的政府机构。
For those of you who aren't accountants, the third quarter of 2009 ended in September.
对于那些不是会计师的人来说，2009 年第三季度已于 9 月结束。
But Joel only gets the data from the third quarter around Christmas, three months after the quarter has already ended.
但乔尔只能在圣诞节前后获得第三季度的数据，即该季度结束三个月后。
And that data, it's not firm.
而且这个数据并不可靠。
In fact, the BEA calls it an estimate.
事实上，BEA 将其称为估算。
What's called the final estimate for third quarter GDP.
所谓的第三季度GDP最终预估。
Wait, they have to estimate what happened three months ago?
等等，他们得估算一下三个月前发生了什么？
They can't even get a firm number on what happened in the past?
他们连过去发生的事情都无法得到确切的数字吗？
Well, they make three estimates-- well, they make many estimates of what happened the previous quarter.
嗯，他们做了三个估计——嗯，他们对上一季度发生的事情做了很多估计。
We have the first estimate of the third quarter.
我们对第三季度进行了初步估计。
A month later, a second estimate.
一个月后，第二次估算。
A month after that, a third estimate.
一个月后，第三次估计。
In July of every year, we get a so-called annual revision of that, so that's a fourth estimate.
每年七月，我们都会对其进行所谓的年度修订，所以这是第四个估计。
July after that, we get the fifth.
七月之后，我们得到了第五个。
July after that, we get the sixth.
七月之后，我们获得了第六名。
Wait, you mean it's like three years after the year that we--?
等等，你的意思是三年后我们——？
Right.
正确的。
There are so-called three year revisions to GDP that go back three years.
GDP 存在所谓的三年修正，可以追溯到三年前。
But I just want to point out, we're calling you to ask what 2010 is going to be like.
但我只想指出，我们打电话给您是想询问 2010 年会是什么样子。
And what I'm hearing is, if we're lucky, by summertime you can tell us what 2007 was like.
我听到的是，如果我们幸运的话，到夏天你就能告诉我们 2007 年是什么样子。
Well, if we're lucky, by July of this year, we'll have our first true annual estimate of what 2009 was like.
好吧，如果幸运的话，到今年 7 月，我们将对 2009 年的情况进行第一个真正的年度估计。
We'll have our second true annual estimate of what 2008 was like.
我们将对 2008 年的情况进行第二次真实的年度估计。
And we'll have our third true annual estimate if what 2007 was like.
如果 2007 年情况如何，我们将得到第三次真实的年度估计。
And you're not even telling us-- when will we actually know?
你甚至没有告诉我们——我们什么时候才能真正知道？
You know, you never know for sure, I think, is the answer here.
我想，你知道，你永远无法确定，这就是答案。
They just give up guessing.
他们只是放弃猜测。
Joel Prakken And then on occasion, the BEA introduces a new and improved methodology for processing all the source data, and will revise the entire history of GDP all the way back to 1929 to reflect the improved methodologies.
Joel Prakken 有时，BEA 会引入一种新的改进方法来处理所有源数据，并将修订自 1929 年以来的整个 GDP 历史，以反映改进的方法。
Economists have a joke which speaks exactly to this point.
经济学家有一个笑话正好说明了这一点。
They say, "How can we predict the future?
他们说：“我们如何预测未来？
We can't even predict the past."
我们甚至无法预测过去。”
Yeah.
是的。
We found all these different economist jokes on this subject.
我们发现了所有关于这个主题的不同经济学家笑话。
And a lot of them get sort of wonky.
他们中的很多人都有点古怪。
Like here's one example.
就像这里的一个例子。
"There are two types of economists-- those who can't forecast interest rates, and those who do not know that they can't forecast interest rates."
“有两种类型的经济学家——一种无法预测利率，另一种不知道自己无法预测利率。”
Or my personal favorite, attributed to that great economic forecaster Yogi Berra, "The hardest thing to forecast is the future."
或者我个人最喜欢的一句话，归功于伟大的经济预测家尤吉·贝拉（Yogi Berra），“最难预测的是未来。”
Now, all these jokes point to a pretty dismal reality.
现在，所有这些笑话都指向一个相当惨淡的现实。
Economic forecasters, even the best, just are not that good at forecasting the economy.
经济预测者，即使是最好的预测者，也不太擅长预测经济。
We have this chart that shows how they've done over the last 20 years.
我们有这张图表，显示了他们在过去 20 年中的表现。
On average, the best economic forecasters, including Prakken's Macroeconomic Advisers, have been off by an average of one percentage point per year in predicting how good the economy will do.
平均而言，包括普拉肯宏观经济顾问在内的最佳经济预测者对经济表现的预测平均每年偏差一个百分点。
Now, that might sound pretty good, one percentage point.
现在，这听起来可能相当不错，只有一个百分点。
But in economic forecast, that can be the difference between night and day, or recession and growth.
但在经济预测中，这可能是白天和黑夜、衰退和增长之间的区别。
If a forecast is for the economy to grow by 2% next year, a percentage point error margin means it'll grow somewhere between 1% and 3%.
如果预测明年经济增长 2%，一个百分点的误差幅度意味着经济增长将在 1% 到 3% 之间。
But 1% growth is really bad.
但1%的增长确实很糟糕。
That doesn't even keep up with the population growth.
这甚至跟不上人口的增长。
It means there's going to be more unemployment, more layoffs.
这意味着将会有更多的失业、更多的裁员。
That's a grim economy.
这是一个严峻的经济形势。
3% is the exact opposite.
3% 则恰恰相反。
Unemployment will go down.
失业率将会下降。
People will start feeling better.
人们会开始感觉好一些。
They'll build homes and start new businesses.
他们将建造房屋并开展新业务。
And that 1% margin of error, that's in a good year.
1% 的误差幅度，已经是好年头了。
Worst case, these forecasts completely miss a huge economic upheaval.
最坏的情况是，这些预测完全错过了巨大的经济动荡。
For example, our most recent economic upheaval.
例如，我们最近的经济动荡。
In January of 2008, right before the economy collapsed, the leading forecasters were predicting a pretty decent year.
2008 年 1 月，就在经济崩溃之前，主要预测者预测今年会是相当不错的一年。
In fact, we now know the worst recession in decades had already begun.
事实上，我们现在知道几十年来最严重的衰退已经开始。
And not only did they not forecast it, they didn't even notice that it had already started.
他们不仅没有预料到，甚至没有注意到它已经开始了。
By the way, economic forecasters also missed the 1982 recession, the 1984 recovery, the late '90s stock bubble, the 2001 recession.
顺便说一句，经济预测者也错过了 1982 年的衰退、1984 年的复苏、90 年代末的股票泡沫和 2001 年的衰退。
So you get the idea.
所以你明白了。
You know, economic forecasting is inherently an impossible task.
要知道，经济预测本质上是一项不可能完成的任务。
This is MIT economist Simon Johnson.
这是麻省理工学院的经济学家西蒙·约翰逊。
Listeners might recognize his voice.
听众可能会认出他的声音。
He's been the show before.
他以前也上过节目。
We were talking to him because of his former job as an economic forecaster.
我们之所以与他交谈是因为他以前担任经济预测员。
He was actually the chief economist at the IMF, the International Monetary Fund, where he was responsible for delivering the IMF's annual economic forecast.
他实际上是IMF（国际货币基金组织）的首席经济学家，负责发布IMF的年度经济预测。
Which he says was pretty stressful, because he knew there were all these things he didn't know.
他说这让他压力很大，因为他知道还有很多他不知道的事情。
Between now and the end of next year, the world will bd hit by three major shocks, probably.
从现在到明年年底，世界可能会遭受三大冲击。
You mean that's just average, over the last century or whatever?
你的意思是这只是上个世纪的平均水平还是其他？
Yes, exactly.
是的，完全正确。
Stuff happens, OK?
事情发生了，好吗？
And you know, the thing you're studying is subject to so much chaos in a mathematical sense.
你知道，你正在研究的东西在数学意义上受到如此多的混乱。
So much randomness.
如此多的随机性。
Relatively small random things that can have big outcomes.
相对较小的随机事物可能会产生很大的结果。
Because there's a lot of nonlinearity, if you want to use a technical expression, in the way this system operates.
因为这个系统的运行方式存在很多非线性，如果你想使用技术表达的话。
And so making any forecast has inherently got this problem.
因此，任何预测都必然会遇到这个问题。
Talking to to Simon, you realize chaotic randomness is just one of many problems confronting an economist trying to make a forecast.
与西蒙交谈后，您意识到混沌随机性只是经济学家在尝试做出预测时面临的众多问题之一。
For example, in Simon's case, there are politics involved, as well.
例如，在西蒙的案例中，也涉及政治。
Simon was constantly getting pressure from other countries to revise his IMF forecast.
西蒙不断受到来自其他国家的压力，要求他修改国际货币基金组织的预测。
He even got in a famous tussle-- famous in the world of international finance, at least-- with the French and German governments when they said his forecast was too downbeat.
当法国和德国政府说他的预测过于悲观时，他甚至与法国和德国政府发生了一场著名的争执——至少在国际金融界是著名的。
But Simon says global politics is not the only non-mathematical factor that throws off forecasts.
但西蒙表示，全球政治并不是唯一影响预测的非数学因素。
There's also your own ego.
还有你自己的自我。
You know, the hardest thing about forecasting, actually, is that you get too committed to the forecast.
你知道，实际上，预测最困难的事情是你对预测过于执着。
You get too committed to what you said last time.
你太执着于上次所说的话了。
Because it's just too embarrassing to say, oops.
因为说出来实在是太丢人了，哎呀。
You know, I was wrong.
你知道，我错了。
A lot of stuff happened.
发生了很多事情。
We misread it.
我们误读了它。
We have to make a big revision.
我们必须做出一个大的修改。
People hate to make big revisions to their forecasts, and I'm no exception.
人们讨厌对他们的预测进行大幅修改，我也不例外。
This happened to me, actually, this year.
事实上，今年这件事就发生在我身上。
This year we had, I think, a lot of good analysis.
我认为今年我们有很多很好的分析。
We make some good calls early in the year.
我们在今年年初做出了一些很好的决定。
And then one of the people are I work with very closely started to say, you know, I think there's going to be a recovery.
然后，与我密切合作的一个人开始说，你知道，我认为将会出现复苏。
And I said, how can there be a recovery?
我说，怎么可能恢复呢？
We've pointed out all these massive problems.
我们已经指出了所有这些重大问题。
We've very wedded to this view that we're going down and we're staying down.
我们非常相信这样的观点：我们正在走下坡路，而且我们会保持下去。
And you know, he pointed out to me that economies usually bounce back, even economies with deep-seated problems, for example, the bank system can bounce back in this sort of situation.
你知道，他向我指出，经济通常会反弹，即使是存在深层次问题的经济体，例如银行体系在这种情况下也能反弹。
And I realized that I had to get over-- you know, the fact that I diagnose problems had convinced that the initially negative forecast had been a good call, and then I was still staying negative when I should've revised positive.
我意识到我必须克服——你知道，我诊断问题的事实使我确信最初的负面预测是一个好的决定，然后当我应该修正为正面时，我仍然保持负面。
But it's hard to change your mind like that.
但这样改变主意是很难的。
You've told people, you've stuck you neck out, you've been to events, you've said, I think it's going to be, you know, it's going to be flat from here.
你告诉人们，你竭尽全力，你参加过各种活动，你说过，我认为，你知道，从这里开始，一切都会变得平淡。
And you realize that that's-- you have to go out and say, I've changed my mind.
你意识到那是——你必须出去说，我改变了主意。
I've updated.
我已经更新了。
That's not an easy thing to do when you went around telling people.
当你四处告诉别人时，这并不是一件容易的事。
And yet you were quite convincing when you told people all these negative things.
然而，当你告诉人们所有这些负面的事情时，你还是很有说服力的。
Now I've got to say, Simon, you did make some very strong predictions in January, February of this year that I found incredibly persuasive.
现在我必须说，西蒙，你确实在今年一月、二月做出了一些非常有力的预测，我认为这些预测非常有说服力。
Which were that basically, if I recall correctly, if the U.S. government does not take over several of our leading banks, we are in for a severe, long-term financial crisis akin to the Lost Decade in Japan, where basically there was no economic growth for a long, long, long time.
基本上，如果我没记错的话，如果美国政府不接管我们的几家主要银行，我们就会陷入一场严重的、长期的金融危机，类似于日本“失去的十年”，那里基本上很长很长一段时间没有经济增长。
It seems right now you were wrong on that, right?
现在看来你错了，对吧？
Yes, I was wrong.
是的，我错了。
And that's a hard thing to say.
这很难说。
And I think that Adam just called me on it in a most embarrassing fashion.
我认为亚当刚刚以一种非常尴尬的方式打电话给我。
I'm blushing deeply here.
说到这里我脸红得很厉害。
Because, you know, it's hard for me to say-- how am I going to get out of that one?
因为，你知道，我很难说——我该如何摆脱那个困境？
One guy who is constantly confronted with the limits of economic forecasts is Randy Moore.
兰迪·摩尔（Randy Moore）是一位经常面临经济预测局限性的人。
He puts out the very influential Blue Chip Economic Indicator newsletter, which compiles the 50 leading economic forecasts.
他推出了非常有影响力的蓝筹经济指标时事通讯，其中汇编了 50 个领先的经济预测。
Randy averages them out and produces what's called the Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, the distilled thinking of the 50 best economic minds in American businesses.
兰迪对它们进行平均并得出所谓的蓝筹股共识预测，这是美国企业中 50 名最优秀经济头脑的提炼思想。
Now, the Blue Chip Forecast Newsletter does not come cheap.
现在，蓝筹股预测通讯的价格并不便宜。
It'll cost you $875 for a year subscription.
一年的订阅费用为 875 美元。
Though that's nothing compared to Joel Prakken's Macroeconomic Advisers.
尽管与乔尔·普拉肯的宏观经济顾问相比，这根本不算什么。
That's like 20 to 100 grand a year, right?
一年大概20到100块吧？
Yeah, but you get a much bigger forecast.
是的，但是你会得到更大的预测。
And both these guys have lots of customers.
这两个家伙都有很多客户。
Governments are using them to plan budgets and make decisions about taxing and spending.
政府正在利用它们来规划预算并做出有关税收和支出的决策。
Banks use it to decide who to lend money to and where to invest their extra money.
银行用它来决定把钱借给谁以及把多余的钱投资到哪里。
Companies use the information to figure out how many people to hire or fire, or how much steel to buy, or whatever.
公司利用这些信息来计算要雇用或解雇多少人，或者购买多少钢材，等等。
It has a huge impact.
它有巨大的影响。
But for a guy who makes his living selling economic forecasts, Randy is pretty honest about how accurate he thinks they are.
但对于一个以销售经济预测为生的人来说，兰迪非常诚实地表达了他认为这些预测的准确性。
Any economic forecast that you see that includes a decimal point implies a level of accuracy that reality suggests isn't present.
您看到的任何包含小数点的经济预测都意味着现实中不存在的准确度。
So you would rather if most forecasts just ended with -ish?
那么您宁愿大多数预测都以 -ish 结尾？
Like, it'll be two-ish, it'll be three-ish.
就像，它会是两个左右，它会是三个左右。
I love that idea.
我喜欢这个主意。
That we should make a-- not make a law, but we should encourage economists to just end with -ish.
我们应该制定——而不是制定法律，但我们应该鼓励经济学家以——结束。
The economy will be three-ish.
经济将达到三成左右。
It'll be good-ish.
会很好的。
Unfortunately, that's not what the consumers of economic forecasts want.
不幸的是，这并不是经济预测的消费者想要的。
People that want those forecasts want decimal point forecasts.
想要这些预测的人想要小数点预测。
But that's so interesting to me, is that the people who are using these forecasts, they want a level of precision that they themselves have to know, by experience, is just not possible.
但对我来说非常有趣的是，使用这些预测的人们想要一定程度的精确度，而他们自己必须知道，根据经验，这是不可能的。
I agree with that.
我同意这一点。
Adam Davidson What's going on there?
亚当·戴维森 那里发生了什么事？
I don't have a ready explanation for that.
我对此还没有现成的解释。
It's difficult to plug in a two-ish number.
插入两个左右的数字是很困难的。
Excel doesn't recognize two-ish or three-ish.
Excel 无法识别二元或三元。
You know, people have been going to oracles since the days of Delphi.
你知道，从 Delphi 时代起，人们就开始使用预言机。
And I don't think anybody that shows up has the expectation that it's going to be completely right.
我认为任何出现的人都不会期望它会是完全正确的。
But there's comfort in being told that.
但被告知这一点让人感到安慰。
And I think that's probably what those decimal points are.
我认为这可能就是那些小数点。
But of course, what are people supposed to do?
但当然，人们应该做什么？
One economic forecaster we talked to told a story about being on the board of a small not-for-profit.
我们采访的一位经济预测员讲述了一个关于担任一家小型非营利组织董事会成员的故事。
They were trying to figure out how to balance their budget for the coming year, what to charge for services.
他们试图弄清楚如何平衡来年的预算，以及如何收取服务费用。
At one point in the discussions, a board member looked to this economist and said, "Where do you think interest rates will be next year?"
在讨论中，一位董事会成员看着这位经济学家说：“您认为明年的利率会是多少？”
Sort of the economist's version of asking a doctor, "This mole, you think I should get it looked at?"
有点像经济学家问医生的版本：“这颗痣，你认为我应该检查一下吗？”
So there this economist was, with all these people looking at him like, you're the expert!
所以这位经济学家就在那里，所有这些人都看着他，就像，你是专家！
You know what the future is.
你知道未来是什么。
Tell us.
告诉我们。
And the economist could not just say, I have no idea.
经济学家不能只是说，我不知道。
The future is void.
未来是空虚的。
The organization needed to stay open, the budget needed to be balanced, fees needed to be set.
该组织需要保持开放，需要平衡预算，需要设定费用。
He needed to make a forecast.
他需要做出预测。
Again, Simon Johnson.
又是西蒙·约翰逊。
Simon Johnson You know, there's so much imprecision.
西蒙·约翰逊：你知道，有很多不精确的地方。
There's so much lagging in terms of our updating that, in some sense, we'd be better off without forecasts.
我们的更新有太多滞后，从某种意义上说，如果没有预测，我们的情况会更好。
We'd be better off making up our minds afresh every day.
我们最好每天重新下定决心。
But the problem is, you can't do that.
但问题是，你不能这样做。
All of these, the businesses, the institutions, all involve thinking about the future and planning for the future.
所有这些，企业、机构，都涉及对未来的思考和对未来的规划。
And you can't do that without taking a view of the future.
如果不考虑未来，你就无法做到这一点。
In other words, there's one thing we can say for sure about the future.
换句话说，关于未来，我们可以肯定地说一件事。
It will come.
它会来的。
And just because we don't know what it will bring doesn't mean we shouldn't make our best guess.
仅仅因为我们不知道它会带来什么，并不意味着我们不应该做出最好的猜测。
Alex Blumberg and Adam Davidson are the creators of Planet Money, which is a co-production of our program and NPR News.
Alex Blumberg 和 Adam Davidson 是《金钱星球》的创始人，该节目是我们的节目和 NPR 新闻的联合制作。
They explain the economy in normal language that anybody can understand on their thrice-weekly podcast and blog at npr.org/money.
他们在每周三次的播客和博客（npr.org/money）上用任何人都能理解的普通语言解释经济。
Our program is produced today by Jane Feltes with Alex Blumberg, Sarah Koenig, Lisa Pollak, Robyn Semien, Alissa Shipp, and Nancy Updike.
今天我们的节目由 Jane Feltes 与 Alex Blumberg、Sarah Koenig、Lisa Pollak、Robyn Semien、Alissa Shipp 和 Nancy Updike 共同制作。
Our senior producer is Julie Snyder.
我们的高级制片人是朱莉·斯奈德。
Production help from Aaron Scott.
亚伦·斯科特提供制作帮助。
Seth Lind is our production manager.
塞思·林德 (Seth Lind) 是我们的生产经理。
Emily Condon is our office manager.
艾米丽·康登 (Emily Condon) 是我们的办公室经理。
Our music consultant is Jessica Hopper.
我们的音乐顾问是杰西卡·霍珀。
[ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS] Our website, thisamericanlife.org.
[致谢] 我们的网站 thisamericanlife.org。
This American Life is distributed by Public Radio International.
《美国生活》由国际公共广播电台发行。
WBEZ management oversight for our program by our boss, Mr. Torey Malatia, who can be seen lurking around the public radio conventions, luring radio hosts to come work at WBEZ with these words.
我们的老板 Torey Malatia 先生对我们的节目进行 WBEZ 管理监督，可以看到他潜伏在公共广播会议周围，用这些话引诱电台主持人来 WBEZ 工作。
You're the one.
你就是那个。
When I tell you you're going to be successful, I don't mean kind of successful.
当我告诉你你会成功时，我并不是指某种程度的成功。
I mean successful in a way that you rarely see.
我的意思是，以一种你很少看到的方式取得成功。
I mean really successful.
我的意思是真的很成功。
And you just need to get ready.
你只需要做好准备。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Back next week with more stories of This American Life.
下周我们将带来更多《美国生活》的故事。
This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.
《This American Life》与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。