390: Return To The Giant Pool of Money - This American Life
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00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #390 | September 25, 2009 390: Return To The Giant Pool of Money Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.
00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 390 集 | 2009 年 9 月 25 日 390：回归巨额资金 注：《美国生活》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。
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如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。
Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.
文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。
Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.
请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。
Prologue Ira Glass So, Adam, where are we?
序言 Ira Glass 那么，Adam，我们在哪里？
I recorded this at the Ritz Carlton Hotel in Lower Manhattan.
我在曼哈顿下城的丽思卡尔顿酒店录制了这段视频。
It's a black tie dinner.
这是一场黑领带晚餐。
This was about a year and a half ago.
这是大约一年半前的事了。
And you, by the way, are part of the Planet Money team of economics reporters who did stories here on our program and on the NPR news shows.
顺便说一句，您是 Planet Money 经济记者团队的一员，他们在我们的节目和 NPR 新闻节目中做过报道。
That's right.
这是正确的。
I was there for my job.
我在那里是为了我的工作。
And this was spring 2008.
那是 2008 年春天。
We already knew the economy was heading downward.
我们已经知道经济正在下行。
The subprime mortgage crisis was well underway.
次贷危机正在如火如荼地进行。
And so what was this dinner?
那么这顿晚餐是什么？
Adam Davidson It was like the Oscars, but for a small group of specialized financial experts on Wall Street.
亚当·戴维森 这就像奥斯卡颁奖典礼，只不过是为华尔街的一小群专业金融专家举办的。
They were giving out awards to the people who actually invented and created all these financial securities, including the kind that was already, back then, destabilizing the global financial system.
他们向那些真正发明和创造了所有这些金融证券的人颁发奖项，其中包括当时已经破坏了全球金融体系稳定的金融证券。
At this time, I'd like to ask all of our stars to please assemble over here on the left side of the stage.
这次，我想请我们所有的明星到舞台左边集合。
This guy is a legend.
这个人是一个传奇。
He's a granddaddy of our industry.
他是我们这个行业的鼻祖。
I was sitting at the dinner with Jim Finkel.
我和吉姆·芬克尔坐在一起吃晚饭。
He was really nervous because he was up for CDO of the year.
他真的很紧张，因为他即将角逐年度 CDO。
It was for a CDO he created.
这是为了他创建的 CDO。
Now, CDOs, we already knew back then when we were having this dinner, were the one financial product, more than any other, that had led to this subprime mortgage meltdown and the financial crisis that had already begun.
现在，我们在吃晚饭时就已经知道，CDO 是最能导致次贷危机和已经开始的金融危机的金融产品。
That is so crazy that they're giving each other awards for this.
这太疯狂了，他们为此互相颁奖。
Now, I do want to say it that they did know that there was a certain irony here, that they were giving out awards to each other for what was already clearly one of the most spectacularly unsuccessful financial instruments in human history.
现在，我确实想说，他们确实知道这里有一定的讽刺意味，他们正在互相颁奖，因为这显然已经是人类历史上最不成功的金融工具之一。
It was costing them a lot of money.
他们花了很多钱。
It was costing the world a lot of money.
这让世界花费了很多钱。
Jim Finkel was doing this math while we were sitting there, and he was estimating how much money had been lost by the people in that room right there.
当我们坐在那里时，吉姆·芬克尔正在做这个数学计算，他正在估算那个房间里的人损失了多少钱。
And he said the products they had created, just the people in that room, had already lost $300 billion in value.
他说，他们创造的产品，仅是那个房间里的人，就已经损失了 3000 亿美元的价值。
Wow.
哇。
Adam Davidson But he said-- and, again, this was April of 2008-- he said that the good thing was the worst was over.
亚当·戴维森 (Adam Davidson) 但他说——再说一遍，这是 2008 年 4 月——他说，好的事情是最坏的情况已经过去了。
People are, I think, have already turned the corner a little bit.
我认为，人们已经度过了一些难关。
Spring has sprung.
春天已经来临。
People are sensing some positive motion in the equities markets, and people are starting to realize a lot of these problems have been put behind us already.
人们感觉到股票市场出现了一些积极的变化，人们开始意识到许多问题已经被抛在脑后。
A lot of the losses have been taken.
损失不少。
A lot of the downsizing and the shifts in the banks have happened.
银行已经发生了大量的裁员和转变。
And everyone's starting to say, OK, the dust has settled.
每个人都开始说，好吧，尘埃落定。
So I'm just going to take a wild guess here.
所以我在这里只是做一个大胆的猜测。
When he said that 18 months ago, that didn't turn out to be true?
当他18个月前说这句话时，结果不是真的吗？
No. Look, we all got it wrong.
不，听着，我们都错了。
Nobody saw what was coming.
没有人预见到接下来会发生什么。
Almost nobody.
几乎没有人。
But yes, when Jim Finkel said that, he was so totally, shockingly, completely wrong.
但是，是的，当吉姆·芬克尔这么说时，他完全、令人震惊地完全错了。
The dust had not settled.
尘埃尚未落定。
The problems were not put behind us.
这些问题并没有被抛在脑后。
In fact, it was five months after this dinner, after he said those words, that Lehman Brothers collapsed.
事实上，在这次晚宴之后，在他说出这些话之后的五个月后，雷曼兄弟就倒闭了。
In fact, the federal government had to step in and basically bail out the entire US financial system.
事实上，联邦政府必须介入并基本上救助整个美国金融体系。
Still in the future, the stock market was going to plunge.
未来，股市仍将暴跌。
It lost more than half of its value eventually.
它最终损失了一半以上的价值。
The debt markets were going to freeze.
债务市场即将冻结。
And for Jim personally, his company, before the crisis started, was managing more than $5 billion in investments.
对于吉姆个人而言，在危机开始之前，他的公司管理着超过 50 亿美元的投资。
And by the time of the awards dinner, those investments had already lost about 30% of their value.
到颁奖晚宴时，这些投资已经损失了约 30% 的价值。
Now, I caught up with him recently, and I asked him, how are things now?
现在，我最近采访了他，我问他，现在怎么样？
I'd say we've probably lost 60%, probably 3 billion.
我想说我们可能损失了 60%，可能是 30 亿。
And in retrospect, doing the transactions we did were not a good idea.
回想起来，我们所做的交易并不是一个好主意。
That's just a fact.
这只是事实。
A humbling fact.
一个令人羞愧的事实。
And it's made him reevaluate the business he's in and the very basics of how Wall Street works.
这让他重新评估了自己所处的行业以及华尔街运作的基本原理。
And we'll get to that later in today's program.
我们将在今天的节目中稍后讨论这个问题。
This month is the one-year anniversary of Wall Street's biggest crisis since 1929.
本月是华尔街自 1929 年以来最大危机爆发一周年。
Lots of news outlets are looking back in various ways, and we thought that we would do it here on our show by going back to one of the most popular programs that we have ever put on the air, a show that tells the story of how the crisis started, step by step.
许多新闻媒体都在以各种方式回顾过去，我们认为我们应该在我们的节目中回顾我们曾经播出过的最受欢迎的节目之一，这个节目讲述了危机如何一步步开始的故事。
We called that show "The Giant Pool of Money."
我们称该节目为“巨额资金池”。
And today on our program, in the first half of the show, we're going to play you a lot of that original report, where we hear from the bankers and the mortgage dealers and the investment managers and the homeowners, who together, without meaning to, created the economic disaster we're in today.
今天在我们的节目中，在节目的前半部分，我们将向你们播放很多原始报告，其中我们听到银行家、抵押贷款交易商、投资经理和房主的声音，他们无意中共同造成了我们今天面临的经济灾难。
And in the report, they explained what the hell they were thinking when they did all the things that brought down the global economy.
在报告中，他们解释了当他们做所有导致全球经济下滑的事情时，他们到底在想什么。
And then in the second half of the show, Adam, you and your partner in this reporting, Alex Blumberg, one of our This American Life producers--
然后在节目的后半部分，亚当、你和你的报道搭档亚历克斯·布隆伯格（Alex Blumberg），我们《美国生活》的制片人之一——
Right.
对。
Track down the people who were in your original story-- now, I guess a year and a half later-- to find out, how did the crisis that they helped bring on, how did it change them?
追踪你原来故事中的人物——现在，我猜是一年半之后了——找出他们是如何引发危机的，危机如何改变了他们？
And so from WBEZ Chicago, it's This American Life distributed by Public Radio International.
来自芝加哥 WBEZ 的节目是由国际公共广播电台发行的《This American Life》。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Today's show is a co-production that we're doing with NPR News.
今天的节目是我们与 NPR 新闻频道联合制作的。
And let me just turn things over to the two of you, Alex Blumberg and Adam Davidson.
让我把事情交给你们两个，亚历克斯·布隆伯格和亚当·戴维森。
Alex is going to kick things off.
亚历克斯要开始了。
This investigation began when Alex heard about something.
当亚历克斯听说某事时，调查开始了。
It was a home loan that just didn't make any sense to him.
这是一笔对他来说没有任何意义的住房贷款。
The thing that got me interested in all this was something called a NINA loan.
让我对这一切感兴趣的是一种叫做 NINA 贷款的东西。
Back when the housing crisis was still a housing bubble, a guy on the phone told me that a NINA loan stands for "no income, no asset," as in, someone will lend you a bunch of money without first checking to see if you have any income or any assets.
当房地产危机还是房地产泡沫时，一个人在电话里告诉我，NINA 贷款代表“没有收入，没有资产”，也就是说，有人会借给你一大笔钱，而不会先检查你是否有任何收入或资产。
And it was an official loan product, like you could walk into a mortgage broker's office, and they would say, well, we can give you a 30-year fixed rate, or we can put you in a NINA.
这是一种官方贷款产品，就像您走进抵押贷款经纪人办公室一样，他们会说，好吧，我们可以为您提供 30 年固定利率，或者我们可以将您纳入 NINA。
He said there were lots of loans like this, where the bank didn't actually check your income, which I found confusing.
他说这样的贷款有很多，银行实际上并没有检查你的收入，这让我感到困惑。
And it turns out even the people who got them found them confusing.
事实证明，即使是那些得到它们的人也发现它们令人困惑。
For example, a guy I met named Clarence Nathan, he worked three part-time, not very steady jobs, and made a total of $45,000 a year, roughly.
例如，我遇到的一个名叫克拉伦斯·内森（Clarence Nathan）的人，他做三份兼职，不是很稳定的工作，一年总共赚了大约 45,000 美元。
He got himself into trouble and needed money, so he took out a loan against his house, a big one.
他自己陷入了麻烦，需要钱，所以他以自己的房子为抵押申请了一笔大额贷款。
You basically borrowed $540,000 from the bank, and they didn't check your income?
你基本上从银行借了54万美元，他们没有检查你的收入？
Right.
正确的。
It's a no income verification loan.
这是一项无需收入核实的贷款。
They don't call me up and say, how much money?
他们不会打电话给我，问我多少钱？
They don't do that.
他们不这样做。
It's almost like you pass a guy in the street and say, will you loan me $540,000?
这几乎就像你在街上经过一个人并说，你能借给我 540,000 美元吗？
He said, well, what do you do?
他说，那你做什么？
I ain't got a job.
我没有工作。
OK.
好的。
It seems as if it's that casual.
看起来好像就是这么随意。
Even though there are a lot of papers that get filled out and stuff flies all over with the faxes and the emails and all like that, essentially, that's the process.
尽管有很多文件需要填写，并且传真和电子邮件等东西飞得满地都是，但本质上，这就是这个过程。
I wouldn't have loaned me the money, and nobody that I know would have loaned me money.
我不会借钱给我，我认识的人也不会借钱给我。
I know guys who are criminals that wouldn't lend me that money, and they'd break your kneecaps.
我认识一些不肯借钱给我的罪犯，他们会打断你的膝盖。
Yeah, I don't know why the bank did it.
是的，我不知道银行为什么这么做。
I'm serious.
我是认真的。
They gave $540,000 to a person with bad credit.
他们给了一个信用不良的人 54 万美元。
As it turns out, Clarence's friends, acquaintances, and shadowy criminal contacts would have been right not to lend him the money.
事实证明，克拉伦斯的朋友、熟人以及可疑的犯罪联系人不借钱给他是正确的。
At the time I talked to him, Clarence hadn't made a payment in almost a year, and his house was in the process of foreclosure.
当我与克拉伦斯谈话时，克拉伦斯已经快一年没有付款了，他的房子正处于取消抵押品赎回权的过程中。
But stories like this have been in the news for months, and they often feature an innocent homeowner who's duped by a lying, greedy mortgage banker.
但这样的故事已经在新闻中出现了好几个月，而且故事的主角往往是一位无辜的房主被一位撒谎、贪婪的抵押贷款银行家欺骗。
Or if you're more of a Wall Street Journal editorial page type, an innocent mortgage banker who was duped by a lying, greedy homeowner.
或者，如果你更像是《华尔街日报》的社论版面类型，一个无辜的抵押贷款银行家，被一个撒谎、贪婪的房主欺骗。
And no doubt both categories exist.
毫无疑问，这两个类别都存在。
But Clarence's case is more nuanced and much more common.
但克拉伦斯的情况更为微妙，也更为常见。
Nobody came and told me a lie and told me story and said, oh, just close your eyes and all your problems will go away.
没有人来对我撒谎，给我讲故事，然后说，哦，只要闭上眼睛，所有的问题都会消失。
That wasn't the situation.
情况并非如此。
The situation was that I needed the money.
情况是我需要钱。
And I'm not trying to absolve myself of anything.
我并不想为自己开脱任何事。
I had a situation, and I thought that I could do this and then get out of it within six to nine months.
我遇到了一种情况，我认为我可以做到这一点，然后在六到九个月内摆脱它。
The six to nine month plan didn't work, so I'm stuck.
六到九个月的计划没有奏效，所以我陷入了困境。
But if somebody had told me, you couldn't borrow the money, I probably would have had to do something else more drastic and dramatic and not be in this situation now.
但如果有人告诉我，你借不到钱，我可能不得不做一些更激烈、更戏剧性的事情，而不是现在这样。
The bank made an imprudent loan.
银行提供了一笔不谨慎的贷款。
I made an imprudent loan.
我借了一笔不谨慎的贷款。
So the bank and I are partners in this deal.
所以银行和我是这笔交易的合作伙伴。
This imprudent partnership is new, and it's at the heart of the current housing crisis.
这种不谨慎的伙伴关系是新出现的，也是当前住房危机的核心。
For most of the history of banking, bankers wouldn't have loaned Clarence their money, either.
在银行业历史的大部分时间里，银行家也不会借钱给克拉伦斯。
They didn't let people like Clarence near their money, in fact, people with part-time employment and unpaid debts in their past.
他们不让像克拉伦斯这样的人接近他们的钱，事实上，那些过去从事兼职工作和未偿还债务的人。
And then suddenly, in the early 2000s, everything changed.
然后突然间，在 2000 年代初，一切都发生了变化。
Banking turned on its head and went out looking for partnerships with people like Clarence, loaning him half a million dollars without even checking to see if he had a job.
银行业发生了翻天覆地的变化，开始寻找与克拉伦斯这样的人的合作伙伴关系，甚至没有检查他是否有工作就借给了他 50 万美元。
What happened?
发生了什么？
Well, to help explain what happened, here's my partner for the hour, Adam Davidson.
好吧，为了帮助解释发生的事情，请听我的搭档亚当·戴维森 (Adam Davidson)。
Hey, Adam.
嘿，亚当。
Hey, Alex.
嘿，亚历克斯。
Alex Blumberg How's it going?
亚历克斯·布隆伯格 怎么样？
Good.
好的。
Alex Blumberg Good.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格 好。
So I guess the first thing we have to do is talk about the global pool of money, right?
所以我想我们要做的第一件事就是谈论全球资金池，对吗？
Right.
正确的。
The global pool of money, that's where our story begins.
全球资金池，这就是我们的故事开始的地方。
Most people don't think about it, but there's this huge pool of money out there which is basically all the money the world is saving now: insurance companies saving for a catastrophe, pension funds saving money for retirement, the Central Bank of England saving for whatever central banks save for, all the world savings.
大多数人都没有想到这一点，但那里有一个巨大的资金池，基本上是现在世界上所有储蓄的钱：保险公司为灾难储蓄，养老基金为退休储蓄，英格兰中央银行为任何中央银行储蓄，全世界的储蓄。
That's the head of capital market research at the International Monetary Fund, the place to go if you want to figure out how much money is in the world.
那是国际货币基金组织资本市场研究主管，如果你想知道世界上有多少钱，你就应该去那里。
So, first off, how do we pronounce your name?
那么，首先，我们如何发音你的名字？
That would probably take, if this goes on air, probably that would take two minutes, at least.
这可能需要一些时间，如果播出的话，可能至少需要两分钟。
It's Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.
我是帕扎尔巴西奥卢，西拉·帕扎尔巴西奥卢。
Jay-luh Puh-zar-buh-sho-loh.
Jay-luh Puh-zar-buh-sho-loh。
Ceyla Pazarbasioglu I'm very impressed.
Ceyla Pazarbasioglu 给我留下了深刻的印象。
And by the way, before you finance enthusiasts start writing any letters, we do know that that $70 trillion technically refers to that subset of global savings called fixed income securities.
顺便说一句，在各位金融爱好者开始写信之前，我们确实知道 70 万亿美元在技术上指的是全球储蓄中称为固定收益证券的子集。
Everyone else can just ignore what I just said.
其他人可以忽略我刚才说的话。
Let's put $70 trillion in perspective.
让我们展望一下 70 万亿美元。
Do this: Think about all the money that people spend everywhere in the world, everything you bought in the last year, all of it.
这样做：想想人们在世界各地花的所有钱，你去年买的所有东西，所有的一切。
Then add everything Bill Gates bought and all the rice sold in China and that fleet of planes Boeing just sold to South Korea.
然后加上比尔·盖茨购买的所有商品、在中国销售的所有大米以及波音公司刚刚出售给韩国的机队。
All the money spent in every country on earth in a year, that is less than 70 trillion, less than the global pool of money.
地球上每个国家一年花掉的所有钱，不到70万亿，比全球的钱还少。
Wow.
哇。
Adam Davidson We're talking about a lot of money.
亚当·戴维森：我们谈论的是很多钱。
That is a lot of money.
那是很多钱。
Adam Davidson And that money comes along with armies of very nervous men and women watching over the pool of money.
亚当·戴维森（Adam Davidson） 这笔钱是由一群非常紧张的男男女女守护着资金池而来的。
Investment managers, they don't want to lose a penny of that.
投资经理，他们不想损失一分钱。
They don't want to lose any of that money, and even more so, they want to make it grow bigger.
他们不想损失任何钱，更希望让它变得更大。
But to make it grow, they have to find something to invest in.
但为了让它成长，他们必须找到可以投资的东西。
So most of modern history, what they did was they bought really safe, and frankly really boring, investments, like treasuries and municipal bonds, boring things.
所以在现代历史的大部分时间里，他们所做的就是购买非常安全的、坦率地说非常无聊的投资，比如国债和市政债券，这些无聊的东西。
But then, right before our story starts, something changed.
但就在我们的故事开始之前，事情发生了变化。
Something happened to that global pool of money.
全球资金池发生了一些事情。
This number doubled since 2000.
自 2000 年以来，这个数字翻了一番。
In 2000, this was about $36 trillion.
2000 年，这一数字约为 36 万亿美元。
So it took several hundred years for the world to get to 36 trillion, and then it took six years to get another 36 trillion?
那么世界花了几百年才达到36万亿，然后又花了六年才达到另外36万亿？
Yeah.
是的。
There has been a very sharp increase.
出现了非常急剧的增长。
How does the world get twice as much money to invest?
世界如何获得双倍的资金进行投资？
There are lots of things that happen, but the main headline is that all sorts of poor countries became rich, making things like TVs and selling us oil.
发生了很多事情，但主要的标题是各种贫穷国家变得富有，制造电视等产品并向我们出售石油。
China, India, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia made a lot of money and banked it.
中国、印度、阿布扎比、沙特阿拉伯赚了很多钱并将其存入银行。
China, for example, has over a trillion dollars in its central bank, and there are office buildings in Beijing filled with math geniuses, real math geniuses, looking for a place to invest it.
例如，中国中央银行拥有超过一万亿美元，北京的办公楼里挤满了数学天才，真正的数学天才，正在寻找投资的地方。
And the world was not ready for all this new money.
而世界还没有准备好接受所有这些新资金。
There's twice as much money looking for investments, but there are not twice as many good investments.
寻找投资的资金是原来的两倍，但好的投资却没有原来的两倍。
So that global army of investment managers was hungrier and twitchier than ever before.
因此，全球投资经理大军比以往任何时候都更加饥饿和不安。
They all wanted the same thing: a nice, low-risk investment that paid some return.
他们都想要同样的东西：一项良好的、低风险的、能带来一定回报的投资。
But then something happened that makes matters worse.
但后来发生了一些事情，让事情变得更糟。
At this precise moment, one guy took one of that army's favorite investments and made it a lot less attractive.
就在这个时刻，一个人拿走了那支军队最喜欢的投资之一，并使其吸引力大大降低。
This is where we have to talk about Alan Greenspan, right?
这就是我们必须谈论艾伦·格林斯潘的地方，对吧？
Yeah.
是的。
We have to.
我们必须。
Alex Blumberg All right.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格 好吧。
But I'm just going to promise people that this is the only time you're going to hear Alan Greenspan in this story, so bear with us.
但我只是向人们保证，这是你们唯一一次在这个故事中听到艾伦·格林斯潘的声音，所以请耐心等待。
Here's one of his speeches that really drove that army of investment managers crazy.
这是他的一次演讲，真正让投资经理大军疯狂。
The FOMC stands prepared to maintain a highly accommodative stance of policy for as long as needed to promote satisfactory economic performance.
只要需要促进令人满意的经济表现，联邦公开市场委员会随时准备维持高度宽松的政策立场。
You may not believe me, but that little statement, that is central banker speak for, hey, global pool of money, screw you.
你可能不相信我，但是那个小声明，就是央行行长的代言，嘿，全球资金池，操你妈的。
It is.
这是。
I speak central banker.
我说的是央行行长。
Believe me, that's what he said.
相信我，他就是这么说的。
What he's technically saying is he's going to keep the fed funds rate-- that's when you hear the fed interest rate-- at the absurdly low level of 1%.
从技术上讲，他的意思是，他将把联邦基金利率（也就是你听到的联邦利率）保持在 1% 的低得离谱的水平。
And that sends a message to every investor in the world: You are not going to make any money at all on US treasury bonds for a very long time.
这向世界上每一位投资者传达了一个信息：在很长一段时间内，你根本不会从美国国债上赚到任何钱。
Go somewhere else.
去别的地方吧。
We can't help you.
我们帮不了你。
And so the global pool of money, which does speak central banker, they understood what he was saying.
因此，全球资金池确实会说央行行长的话，他们理解他在说什么。
They looked around for some low-risk, high-return investment.
他们四处寻找一些低风险、高回报的投资。
And among the many things they put their money into, there's this one thing that they fell in love with.
在他们投入金钱的众多事物中，有一件是他们爱上的。
To get it, they called Wall Street, a guy like this.
为了得到它，他们给华尔街这样的人打电话。
My name is Mike Francis.
我叫迈克·弗朗西斯。
During the beginning of the mortgage implosion, I was an employee, an executive director at Morgan Stanley, on the residential mortgage trading desk.
在抵押贷款危机爆发之初，我是摩根士丹利住宅抵押贷款交易部门的一名员工、执行董事。
Mike was one link in a chain that connected the global pool of money to its new favorite investment: residential mortgages, the US housing market, and guys like Clarence Nathan.
迈克是连接全球资金池和它最喜欢的新投资的链条中的一环：住宅抵押贷款、美国房地产市场以及像克拉伦斯·内森这样的人。
Think how attractive a mortgage loan is to that $70 trillion pool of money.
想想抵押贷款对于这 70 万亿美元的资金池来说有多么有吸引力。
Remember, they're desperate to get any interest return.
请记住，他们迫切希望获得任何利息回报。
They want to beat that miserable 1% interest Greenspan is offering them.
他们想要击败格林斯潘向他们提供的可怜的 1% 利息。
And here are these homeowners paying 5%, 9% to borrow money from some bank.
这些房主支付 5%、9% 的利率从某家银行借钱。
So what if the global pool could get in on that action?
那么，如果全球矿池可以参与这一行动呢？
There are problems.
有问题。
Individual mortgages are too big a hassle for the global pool of money.
个人抵押贷款对于全球资金池来说是一个太大的麻烦。
They don't want to get mixed up with actual people and their catastrophic health problems and their divorces and all the reasons that might stop them from paying their mortgages.
他们不想与真实的人、他们灾难性的健康问题、他们的离婚以及所有可能阻止他们支付抵押贷款的原因混在一起。
So what Mike and his peers on Wall Street did was to figure out a way to give the global pool of money all the benefits of a mortgage-- basically higher yield-- without all the hassle and risk.
因此，迈克和他在华尔街的同行所做的就是找到一种方法，让全球资金池能够享受抵押贷款的所有好处——基本上是更高的收益率——而没有所有的麻烦和风险。
So picture the whole chain.
想象一下整个链条。
You have Clarence.
你有克拉伦斯。
He gets a mortgage from a broker.
他从经纪人那里获得抵押贷款。
The broker sells the mortgage to a small bank.
经纪人将抵押贷款出售给一家小银行。
The small bank sells the mortgage to a guy like Mike at a big investment firm on Wall Street.
这家小银行将抵押贷款卖给像迈克这样在华尔街一家大型投资公司工作的人。
Then Mike takes a few thousand mortgages he's bought this way, he puts them in one big pile.
然后迈克拿了他通过这种方式购买的几千张抵押贷款，他把它们放在一大堆里。
Now he's got thousands of mortgage checks coming to him every month.
现在，他每个月都会收到数千张抵押贷款支票。
It's a huge monthly stream of money, which is expected to come in for the next 30 years, the life of a mortgage.
这是每月的巨额资金流，预计在未来 30 年（即抵押贷款的期限）内流入。
And he then sells shares of that monthly income to investors.
然后他将每月收入的股票出售给投资者。
Those shares are called mortgage-backed securities.
这些股票称为抵押贷款支持证券。
And the $70 trillion global pool of money loved them.
全球 70 万亿美元的资金池都喜欢它们。
It was unbelievable.
这太令人难以置信了。
We almost couldn't produce enough to keep the appetite of our investors happy.
我们的产量几乎无法满足投资者的胃口。
More people wanted bonds than we could actually produce.
想要债券的人比我们实际生产的要多。
That was our difficult task, was trying to produce enough.
这是我们的艰巨任务，就是努力生产足够的产品。
They would call and say, we're looking for more fixed rate.
他们会打电话说，我们正在寻找更固定的利率。
What have you got?
你有什么？
Do you have anything coming?
你有什么要来的吗？
What's going on?
这是怎么回事？
Tell us what you're trying to do.
告诉我们您想做什么。
From our standpoint, it's like, there's a guy out there with a lot of money, and we have to find a way to become his sole provider of mortgage bonds to fill his appetite.
从我们的角度来看，这就好像，有一个人有很多钱，我们必须找到一种方法成为他唯一的抵押贷款债券提供商来满足他的胃口。
And his appetite's massive.
而且他的胃口很大。
The problem was, to make a mortgage-backed security, you needed mortgages, lots of them.
问题是，要制作抵押贷款支持证券，您需要抵押贷款，而且需要大量抵押贷款。
So for Mike Francis to satisfy this demand and take his quite hefty fee from the global pool of money, he needed to buy up as many mortgages as possible.
因此，迈克·弗朗西斯为了满足这一需求并从全球资金池中收取相当高的费用，他需要购买尽可能多的抵押贷款。
And to do that, he called a guy one link below him on this mortgage-backed security chain, a guy named Mike Garner, who worked at the largest private mortgage bank in Nevada called Silver State Mortgage.
为此，他给这个抵押贷款支持证券链上比他低一级的人打电话，这个人名叫迈克·加纳（Mike Garner），在内华达州最大的私人抵押贷款银行银州抵押贷款银行工作。
And to give you a sense of how fast this business was growing, Mike Garner got into the mortgage business straight from his previous job as a bartender.
为了让您了解这项业务的增长速度有多快，迈克·加纳 (Mike Garner) 从他之前的调酒师工作直接进入了抵押贷款业务。
One of my regulars, he actually hired me from the bar.
我的常客之一，他实际上从酒吧雇用了我。
He just said he needed some guys, and if I was interested in working for him.
他只是说他需要一些人，以及我是否有兴趣为他工作。
And then we started talking about how much I made and that, and he beat what I was making, so.
然后我们开始谈论我赚了多少钱，然后他打败了我，所以。
I didn't know anything about the mortgage business.
我对抵押贷款业务一无所知。
I was as green as you could be.
我和你一样绿。
Mike Garner's job, the guy in Nevada, was to buy up individual mortgages, mainly from brokers, bundle 200 or 300 of them together, and then sell them up the chain to Wall Street, to guys like Mike Francis.
内华达州的迈克·加纳 (Mike Garner) 的工作是购买个人抵押贷款，主要是从经纪人那里购买，将 200 或 300 个抵押贷款捆绑在一起，然后将它们卖给华尔街，卖给像迈克·弗朗西斯这样的人。
I know.
我知道。
So many Mikes.
这么多迈克。
There's actually just two Mikes.
实际上只有两个迈克。
There was Mike Francis, the guy on Wall Street, and Mike Garner, the guy we're talking about now.
其中有华尔街的迈克·弗朗西斯（Mike Francis）和我们现在谈论的迈克·加纳（Mike Garner）。
He's in Nevada.
他在内华达州。
Alex Blumberg He's in Nevada, right.
Alex Blumberg 他在内华达州，对吧。
And in the beginning, he'd only buy mortgages that were pretty standard and pretty safe, mortgages where people had come up with a down payment and proven that they had a steady income and money in the bank.
一开始，他只购买相当标准且相当安全的抵押贷款，人们已经支付了首付款并证明他们有稳定的收入和银行存款。
And they sold so many of these mortgages that there came a point in 2003 where just about everybody who wanted a mortgage and was qualified to get one had gotten one.
他们出售了如此多的抵押贷款，以至于到了 2003 年，几乎所有想要抵押贷款并且有资格获得抵押贷款的人都获得了抵押贷款。
But the pool of money had just gotten started.
但资金池才刚刚开始。
They wanted more mortgage-backed securities.
他们想要更多的抵押贷款支持证券。
So Wall Street had to find more people to take out mortgages, which meant lending to people who never would have qualified before.
因此，华尔街必须找到更多的人来办理抵押贷款，这意味着向以前从未有资格获得抵押贷款的人提供贷款。
And so Mike Garner in Nevada noticed that every month, the guidelines were getting a little looser.
因此，内华达州的迈克·加纳注意到，每个月，指导方针都在变得更加宽松。
Something called a stated income, verified asset loan came out, which meant that people didn't have to provide a paycheck stub or W-2 form to get a loan, as they had in the past.
所谓的“规定收入、核实资产贷款”出现了，这意味着人们不必像过去那样提供工资存根或 W-2 表格来获得贷款。
They could simply state their income, as long as they showed that they had money in the bank.
他们可以简单地说明他们的收入，只要他们证明他们在银行有钱。
The next guideline lower is just stated income, stated assets.
下一个较低的指导方针是陈述收入、陈述资产。
That came out.
那出来了。
So then you basically state what you make, and then you state what's in your bank account.
所以你基本上会说明你赚了什么，然后你说明你的银行账户里有什么。
They call and make sure that you work where you say you work, and then an accountant has to say that, for your field, it is possible to make what you say you make.
他们打电话并确保你在你所说的工作地点工作，然后会计师必须说，对于你的领域，有可能做到你所说的那样。
But they don't say what you make.
但他们不会说你做了什么。
They just say, it's possible that he could make that.
他们只是说，他有可能做到这一点。
And loan officers would have an accountant that they could call up and say, oh, can you write a statement saying that a truck driver can make this much money?
信贷员会有一名会计师，他们可以打电话给他说，哦，你能写一份声明说卡车司机可以赚这么多钱吗？
Or whatever.
或者无论如何。
Then the next one came along, and it was no income, verified asset.
然后下一个出现了，它是没有收入、经过验证的资产。
So you don't have to tell the people what you do for a living.
所以你不必告诉人们你以什么为生。
You don't have to tell the people what you do for work.
您不必告诉人们您的工作内容。
All you have to do is state that you have a certain amount of money in your bank account.
您所要做的就是声明您的银行帐户中有一定金额的资金。
And then the next one that came out is just no income, no asset.
然后下一个出来的就是没有收入，没有资产。
So you don't have to state anything.
所以你不必声明任何事情。
You just have to have a credit score and a pulse.
您只需要有信用评分和脉搏即可。
Actually, that pulse thing, also optional, like this case in Ohio where 23 dead people were approved for mortgages.
事实上，脉冲的事情，也是可选的，就像俄亥俄州的这个案例，23 名死者被批准抵押贷款。
An interesting fact here: Mike Garner's bank did not care all that much how risky these mortgages were.
这里有一个有趣的事实：迈克·加纳的银行并不太关心这些抵押贷款的风险有多大。
This was a new era.
这是一个新时代。
Banks did not have to hold onto these mortgages for 30 years like they used to.
银行不必像以前那样持有这些抵押贷款 30 年。
They didn't have to wait and see if they'd be paid back.
他们不必等待，看看是否能得到回报。
Banks like Garner's would just own the mortgages for a month or two, and then they sold them on to Wall Street.
像加纳银行这样的银行只会持有抵押贷款一两个月，然后他们就把它们卖给华尔街。
And then Wall Street would sell them on to the global pool of money.
然后华尔街会把它们卖给全球资金池。
Which is how we get half million dollar, no income, no asset loans.
这就是我们如何获得50万美元，没有收入，没有资产贷款。
And loans to dead people.
以及借钱给死人。
So there's this whole other thing going on, as well.
所以还有其他事情正在发生。
Housing prices were rising fast.
房价快速上涨。
I think we all remember that.
我想我们都记得这一点。
Lots of people in the mortgage industry had this faith that housing prices in the US simply never go down.
抵押贷款行业的许多人都相信美国的房价永远不会下跌。
So from the bank's perspective, even if the worst happens and someone defaults, the bank would then own a house which is now worth even more than what they gave out in the loan.
因此，从银行的角度来看，即使最坏的情况发生并且有人违约，银行也会拥有一套现在价值甚至超过他们提供的贷款的房子。
So all Mike cared about was whether or not his customers, the Wall Street investment banks, would buy those mortgages from him.
因此，迈克关心的只是他的客户，即华尔街投资银行，是否会从他那里购买这些抵押贷款。
And he was under pressure to approve more and more loans.
他面临着批准越来越多贷款的压力。
Because other guys in his company, the actual guys cruising strip malls all across Nevada buying mortgages from brokers, their commission depended on selling more loans.
因为他公司的其他人，也就是在内华达州各地的商业街里巡游的人，从经纪人那里购买抵押贷款，他们的佣金取决于出售更多的贷款。
And occasionally, those guys would hear about some loan that some other mortgage company offered that they weren't allowed to offer.
有时，这些人会听说其他一些抵押贷款公司提供了一些他们不被允许提供的贷款。
And they'd complain to Mike.
他们会向迈克抱怨。
Three of them would show up at your door first thing in the morning and say, I lost ten deals last week to Meridias Bank.
他们中的三个人早上第一件事就会出现在你家门口并说，我上周输给了 Meridias 银行十笔交易。
And they've got this loan.
他们得到了这笔贷款。
Look at the guidelines for this loan.
查看该贷款的指导方针。
Is there any way we can do this?
我们有什么办法可以做到这一点吗？
Because we're losing deals left and right.
因为我们左右都在失去交易。
And either they would find out who they're selling it to, or I'd get on the phone and start calling on all these street firms or Countrywide and say, would you buy this loan?
要么他们会找出他们要把它卖给谁，要么我会打电话给所有这些街头公司或全国范围内的公司并询问，你会购买这笔贷款吗？
And finally, you'd find out who was actually buying them, and they would say, yes.
最后，你会发现谁真正在购买它们，他们会说，是的。
So like Merrill Lynch would say, no, and Goldman Sachs would say, no, and then you'd finally hit on somebody.
就像美林会说，不，高盛会说，不，然后你终于找到了某人。
And they would be like, yeah, we'll buy that loan.
他们会说，是的，我们会购买这笔贷款。
Yeah.
是的。
And then once I got a hit, then I called the other peoples back and say, listen, Bear Stearns is buying this loan, and I would like to give you the opportunity to buy these loans, too.
一旦我受到打击，我就给其他人回电话说，听着，贝尔斯登正在购买这笔贷款，我也想给你们机会购买这些贷款。
And once one person buys them, usually, all the rest follow suit.
一旦一个人购买了它们，通常其他人都会效仿。
So what were you thinking when you're turning around and you're selling those to Wall Street?
那么，当你转身将这些产品卖给华尔街时，你在想什么？
Were you ever thinking to yourself like, what are you guys doing?
你有没有想过，你们在做什么？
Yeah.
是的。
And my boss had been in the business for 25 years, and he hated those loans.
我的老板已经在这个行业工作了 25 年，他讨厌这些贷款。
He hated them.
他讨厌他们。
And he used to rant and just say, it makes me sick to my stomach, the kind of loans that we do.
他常常咆哮着说，我们做的那种贷款让我感到恶心。
And he fought the owners and the sales force tooth and neck about these guidelines, and we got the same answer every time: Nope, other people are offering it, and we're going to offer it, too.
他就这些指导方针与业主和销售人员进行了激烈的斗争，我们每次都得到相同的答案：不，其他人正在提供它，我们也会提供它。
And we're going to get more market share this way.
我们将通过这种方式获得更多的市场份额。
House prices are booming.
房价正在蓬勃发展。
Everything's going to be good.
一切都会好起来的。
And the company was just rolling in the cash.
该公司刚刚开始现金流入。
The owners and the production staff were just raking it in.
业主和制作人员只是在捞钱。
At the height, I was making between 75 and 100 grand a month.
在巅峰时期，我每个月赚 75 到 100 英镑。
This is Glen Pizzolorusso, who was an area sales manager at an outfit called WMC Mortgage in Upstate New York.
我是 Glen Pizzolorusso，他是纽约州北部一家名为 WMC Mortgage 的公司的区域销售经理。
And just to repeat, he said 75 to 100 grand a month.
再说一遍，他说每月 75 到 100 美元。
That's over a million dollars a year.
每年超过一百万美元。
Glen was just out of college.
格伦刚刚大学毕业。
His job was a lot like Mike Garner's.
他的工作很像迈克·加纳的工作。
He's the same link in the chain.
他是链条中的同一个环节。
And Glen loved his job.
格伦热爱他的工作。
What was that movie, Boiler Room ?
《锅炉房》那部电影是什么？
You ever see that movie?
你看过那部电影吗？
That's what it was like.
事情就是这样。
It was the coolest thing ever, just cubicle, cubicle, cubicle for 150,000 square feet.
这是有史以来最酷的事情，只有一个小隔间，一个小隔间，一个 150,000 平方英尺的小隔间。
The ceilings were probably 25-, 30-feet ceilings.
天花板大概有25、30英尺高。
The elevator had this big graffiti painting on it that was awesome.
电梯上有这么大的涂鸦，真是太棒了。
A graffiti painting that had been there since before you guys moved in?
你们搬进来之前就已经有的涂鸦画了？
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
是啊，是啊，是啊。
Alex Blumberg So they had not done any amenities to this place?
Alex Blumberg 那么他们没有给这个地方做任何便利设施吗？
There wasn't--
没有——
No, no, no. It was just a big, open space, and it was awesome.
不，不，不。那只是一个很大的开放空间，非常棒。
We lived mortgage.
我们靠抵押贷款过日子。
That's what we did.
这就是我们所做的。
That's all we did.
这就是我们所做的一切。
All of us, we just lived it.
我们所有人，我们只是生活而已。
This deal, that deal, what's going on here?
这个交易，那个交易，这是怎么回事？
How are we going to get this one funded?
我们如何才能获得这一资金？
What's the problem with this one?
这个有什么问题吗？
You get there, and that's all everybody's talking about.
你到了那里，这就是每个人都在谈论的事情。
And when Glen wasn't working, he was doing his next-favorite thing, spending.
当格伦不工作时，他会做他第二喜欢的事情：花钱。
Preferably in the company of-- and this is his term-- B-list celebrities.
最好是与二流名人（这是他的术语）为伴。
We would roll up to Marquis at midnight with a line 500 people deep out front, walk right up to the door, and, give me my table.
我们会在午夜到达 Marquis，前面排着 500 人的队伍，径直走到门口，然后把桌子给我。
We were sitting next to Tara Reid and a couple of her friends.
我们坐在塔拉·里德和她的几个朋友旁边。
Christina Aguilera was doing whatever, like, I'm Christina Aguilera, and I'm going to get up and sing.
克里斯蒂娜·阿奎莱拉正在做任何事情，比如，我是克里斯蒂娜·阿奎莱拉，我要站起来唱歌。
So Christina Aguilera and all her people are there.
克里斯蒂娜·阿奎莱拉和她所有的人都在那里。
Who else was there?
还有谁在场？
Cuba Gooding and that kid from Filthy Rich: Cattle Drive .
库珀·古丁和《肮脏的富豪：赶牛》中的那个孩子。
What was that kid's name?
那孩子叫什么名字？
Fabian?
法比安？
I don't remember.
我不记得了。
We order probably three or four bottles of Cristal at $1,000 a bottle.
我们大概订购了三四瓶 Cristal，每瓶 1,000 美元。
They bring it out.
他们把它拿出来。
They're walking through the crowd.
他们正穿过人群。
They hold the bottles over their head.
他们把瓶子举过头顶。
There's firecrackers and the sparklers.
那里有鞭炮和烟花。
The little cocktail waitresses.
鸡尾酒小女服务员。
So you order four bottles of those.
所以你订购了四瓶。
They're walking through the crowd of people.
他们正穿过人群。
Everybody's like, whoa, who's the cool guys?
每个人都会说，哇，谁是最酷的人？
Well, we were the cool guys.
嗯，我们是很酷的人。
You know what I mean?
你知道我的意思？
They gave me a black card, this little card with my name on it.
他们给了我一张黑卡，这张小卡上写着我的名字。
There's probably 10 of them in existence.
其中可能有 10 个。
And that meant that I just spent way too much money there.
这意味着我在那里花了太多钱。
Glen had five cars, a $1.5 million vacation house in Connecticut, and a penthouse that he rented in Manhattan.
格伦拥有五辆车，在康涅狄格州拥有一栋价值 150 万美元的度假屋，以及在曼哈顿租用的一套顶层公寓。
And he made all this money making very large loans to very poor people with bad credit.
他通过向信用不良的贫困人口发放巨额贷款赚到了所有这些钱。
Loans we were doing, we looked at loans, these people didn't have a pot to piss in.
我们正在做贷款，我们研究了贷款，这些人没有一个可以撒尿的锅。
They could barely make their car payment, and now we're giving them a $300,000 to $400,000 house.
他们几乎付不起买车的钱，现在我们给他们一套价值 30 万到 40 万美元的房子。
But Glen didn't worry about whether these loans were good, either.
但格伦也不担心这些贷款是否良好。
That was someone else's problem.
那是别人的问题。
And this way of thinking thrived at every step of this mortgage security chain.
这种思维方式在抵押贷款安全链的每一步都蓬勃发展。
A guy like Mike Francis from Morgan Stanley, he told me he bought loans, lots of loans, from Glen's company.
摩根士丹利的迈克·弗朗西斯（Mike Francis）这样的人告诉我，他从格伦的公司购买了贷款，很多贷款。
And he knew in his gut that they were bad loans, like these NINA loans.
他凭直觉知道这些都是不良贷款，就像尼娜的这些贷款一样。
No income, no asset loans, that's a liar's loan.
没有收入，没有资产贷款，那就是骗子贷款。
We are telling you to lie to us, effectively.
我们告诉你要有效地对我们撒谎。
We're hoping you don't lie, but-- tell us what you make, tell us what you have in the bank, but we're not going to actually verify it?
我们希望你不要撒谎，但是——告诉我们你做了什么，告诉我们你在银行里有什么，但我们不会真正验证它？
We're setting you up to lie.
我们正在让你撒谎。
Something about that transaction feels very wrong.
那笔交易让人感觉非常不对劲。
It felt very wrong way back when, and I wish we had never done it.
以前的感觉非常错误，我希望我们从来没有这样做过。
Unfortunately, what happened, we did it because everybody else was doing it.
不幸的是，发生了什么事，我们这样做是因为其他人都在这样做。
It's easy to ignore your gut fear when you're making a fortune in commissions.
当你靠佣金赚大钱时，你很容易忽视内心的恐惧。
But Mike had other help in rationalizing what he was doing, technological help.
但迈克在合理化他正在做的事情方面还有其他帮助，即技术帮助。
Mike sat at a desk with six computer screens connected to millions of dollars worth of fancy analytic software, designed by brilliant Ivy League graduates hired by his firm.
迈克坐在一张办公桌前，办公桌上有六台电脑屏幕，这些屏幕连接着价值数百万美元的精美分析软件，这些软件是由他的公司雇用的杰出常春藤盟校毕业生设计的。
And the software analyzed all the loans in all the pools that Mike bought and then sold.
该软件分析了迈克购买然后出售的所有池中的所有贷款。
And the software, the data, didn't seem worried at all.
而软件、数据似乎一点也不担心。
All the data that we had to review, to look at, on loans that were in production that were years old was positive.
我们必须审查、查看的所有已生产贷款的数据都是积极的。
They performed very well.
他们表现得很好。
All those factors, when you look at all the pieces and parts and you say, well, a 90% no-income loan three years ago is performing amazingly well.
所有这些因素，当你查看所有细节时，你会说，嗯，三年前 90% 的无收入贷款表现得非常好。
It has a little bit of risk.
它有一点风险。
Instead of defaulting 1.5% of the time, it defaults 3.5% of the time, well, that's not so bad.
它不是默认 1.5% 的时间，而是默认 3.5% 的时间，嗯，这还不错。
If I'm an investor buying that, if I get a little bit of additional return, I'm fine.
如果我是一个投资者购买它，如果我能得到一点额外的回报，我就很好。
Wait, Alex.
等等，亚历克斯。
I want to step in here, because this is a very important piece of tape.
我想介入这里，因为这是一段非常重要的胶带。
A big part of this whole story, this whole crisis, is that a lot of really smart people, people who knew better, fooled themselves with this data.
整个故事、整个危机的一个重要部分是，很多真正聪明的人，那些更了解的人，用这些数据欺骗了自己。
It was the triumph of data over common sense.
这是数据战胜常识的胜利。
Can you play that tape again?
你能再播放一下那盘磁带吗？
Yeah, sure.
是的，当然。
Here you go.
干得好。
Mike Francis All the data that we had to review, to look at, on loans that were in production that were years old, was positive.
迈克·弗朗西斯（Mike Francis） 我们必须审查、查看的有关已生产贷款多年的所有数据都是积极的。
As we now know, they were using the wrong data.
正如我们现在所知，他们使用了错误的数据。
They looked at the recent history of mortgages and saw that the foreclosure rate is generally below 2%.
他们研究了抵押贷款的近期历史，发现止赎率普遍低于 2%。
So they figured, absolute worst-case scenario, the foreclosure rate might go to 8 or 10 or even 12%.
因此他们认为，绝对最坏的情况是，止赎率可能会达到 8%、10% 甚至 12%。
But the problem with that is that there were all these new kinds of mortgages given out to people who never would have gotten them before.
但问题在于，所有这些新型抵押贷款都发放给了以前从未获得过的人。
So the historical data was irrelevant.
所以历史数据是无关紧要的。
Some mortgage pools today are expected to go beyond 50% foreclosure rates.
目前一些抵押贷款池的止赎率预计将超过 50%。
And then things got even worse.
然后事情变得更糟。
The thing that took this problem and turned it into a crisis was something else that was new, something called a collateralized debt obligation, a CDO.
把这个问题变成危机的是另一种新事物，称为债务抵押债券（CDO）。
And that brings us back to the guy we met at the awards dinner in the beginning, Jim Finkel.
这让我们回到了我们一开始在颁奖晚宴上遇到的那个人，吉姆·芬克尔。
Well, we're heading to the trading floor of Dynamic Credit, where we have all of our mortgage and CEO analysts, our head trader, our CIO.
好吧，我们正在前往 Dynamic Credit 的交易大厅，那里有我们所有的抵押贷款分析师和首席执行官分析师、首席交易员和首席信息官。
Jim Finkel runs this CDO shop, Dynamic Credit.
Jim Finkel 经营着这家 CDO 商店 Dynamic Credit。
It takes up three modified apartments on the Upper East Side of Manhattan.
它占据了曼哈顿上东区的三间经过改造的公寓。
The trading room is like a factory floor for CDOs.
交易室就像 CDO 的工厂车间。
It's where they make the things.
这是他们制造东西的地方。
But what is a CDO?
但什么是 CDO？
He shows us on a computer screen.
他在电脑屏幕上向我们展示。
I'm going to show you.
我会告诉你。
Here's our deal, Monterey.
这是我们的交易，蒙特雷。
To start with, every CDO has its own name.
首先，每个 CDO 都有自己的名字。
Finkel loves his country house in the Berkshires, so he always names CDOs after towns in western Mass, like Monterey.
芬克尔喜欢他在伯克郡的乡间别墅，因此他总是以马萨诸塞州西部的城镇命名 CDO，比如蒙特利。
Monterey CDO limited.
蒙特利 CDO 有限公司。
We had 189 assets in Monterey, 189 tranches of different mortgage-backed pools.
我们在蒙特雷拥有 189 项资产，分为 189 部分不同的抵押贷款支持池。
Let's translate some of that.
我们来翻译一下其中的一些内容。
A mortgage-backed security, remember, is a pool of thousands of different mortgages.
请记住，抵押贷款支持证券是数千种不同抵押贷款的集合。
These are all put together and divided into different slices.
这些都放在一起并分成不同的切片。
Jimmy used the word "tranche." "Tranche" is just French for "slice." Some of these slices are risky, and some are not.
吉米用了“批次”这个词。 “Tranche”在法语中是“切片”的意思。其中一些切片有风险，有些则没有风险。
A CDO is a pool of these tranches, a pool of pools.
CDO 是这些部分的一个池，一个池的池。
And Jim and most companies like his weren't buying the top-rated tranches, the safest ones, the triple-As.
吉姆和大多数像他这样的公司并没有购买评级最高的、最安全的、三A级的股票。
They were buying the lower-rated stuff, the high-risk stuff.
他们购买的是评级较低的东西、高风险的东西。
There's another term the industry uses.
业界还使用另一个术语。
This is not a joke.
这不是玩笑。
They call these lower-rated tranches "toxic waste." They're so high-risk, they're toxic.
他们将这些评级较低的部分称为“有毒废物”。它们的风险非常高，而且有毒。
And so basically, Adam, a CDO is a financial alchemy, right?
Adam，基本上，CDO 是一种金融炼金术，对吗？
Right.
正确的。
Alex Blumberg Jim takes this toxic stuff, these low-rated, high-risk tranches, puts them all together, re-tranches them, and presto, he has a CDO whose top tranche is rated triple-A, rock-solid, good as money.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格·吉姆（Alex Blumberg Jim）把这些有毒的东西，这些低评级、高风险的部分，把它们放在一起，重新划分，很快，他就有了一个 CDO，其顶级部分被评为 AAA 级，坚如磐石，和钱一样好。
Now, if this seems too good to be true to you, you're in good company.
现在，如果这对你来说似乎好得令人难以置信，那么你就有了很好的伙伴。
Guys like billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the very logic was ridiculous.
像亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特这样的人表示，这种逻辑非常荒谬。
But back in 2005, 2006, the global pool of money, they couldn't get enough of these things.
但早在2005年、2006年，全球资金池里，他们就无法获得足够的这些东西。
And the CDO industry was facing the same pressures everyone else was at every other step of this chain, to loosen their standards, to make CDOs out of lower and lower-rated rated tranches.
CDO 行业面临着与其他人在该链条的每个其他步骤相同的压力，放松他们的标准，使 CDO 的评级越来越低。
Actually, in 2005 already, we had an internal debate here.
其实早在2005年，我们内部就已经有过争论了。
Because there were two banks coming to us saying, why don't you do a deal with us of triple-B securities, and you get paid a million bucks in management fees per year?
因为有两家银行来找我们说，你为什么不和我们做一笔 AAA 级证券交易，然后每年给你一百万美元的管理费？
Very clear, just like that.
非常清楚，就是这样。
In 2005.
2005年。
And we declined those deals.
我们拒绝了这些交易。
We said, we just don't believe that those triple-B ARM assets are money-good.
我们说过，我们只是不相信那些 AAA 级 ARM 资产是赚钱的。
We don't think they're well underwritten, and we think if we do CDO of those, that's going to blow up completely.
我们认为它们没有得到很好的承保，而且我们认为如果我们对这些进行 CDO，那将会彻底崩溃。
We were a little early in '05 by not wanting to do those deals, and people were laughing at us, to be honest, to say, well, you're crazy, you're hurting your business.
05 年我们有点早地不想做这些交易，说实话，人们在嘲笑我们，说，好吧，你疯了，你正在损害你的业务。
Why don't you want to make-- per deal, you could make a million dollars a year.
你为什么不想——每笔交易，你每年可以赚一百万美元。
Did someone do that deal?
有人做过那笔交易吗？
Tonko Gast Absolutely.
汤科·加斯特 绝对。
Everybody.
大家。
Well, not everybody, but a lot of people did.
嗯，不是每个人，但很多人都这么做了。
Let's go back all the way to the other end of this mortgage chain and meet one of those people in one of these poorly underwritten mortgages that Tonko Gast just referred to, that the global pool of money was eagerly buying up.
让我们一路回到抵押贷款链的另一端，去见见 Tonko Gast 刚才提到的那些承保不良的抵押贷款中的一个人，全球资金池正在急切地购买这些抵押贷款。
This guy's name is Richard, and we met him at a foreclosure prevention conference in Brooklyn.
这个人的名字叫理查德，我们是在布鲁克林的一个止赎预防会议上见到他的。
He's a Marine, a big guy, over six feet tall.
他是一名海军陆战队员，身材高大，身高超过六英尺。
And when he came back from Iraq a few years ago, he bought a house with one of those fancy new mortgages with an adjustable rate.
几年前，当他从伊拉克回来时，他用一种可调整利率的精美新抵押贷款买了一栋房子。
Recently, his rate reset.
最近，他的利率重置了。
His mortgage payments have gone up by more than $2,000 a month, and he's falling behind.
他的抵押贷款每月增加了 2,000 多美元，而且已经落后了。
It got to the point where my son had $7,000 in a CD, and I had to break it.
我儿子有一张价值 7,000 美元的 CD，我不得不把它毁掉。
That really hurt, because I was saving up money for his college.
这真的很痛苦，因为我正在为他的大学存钱。
I put $2,000 back, but-- it was like you can't have a future.
我退回了 2,000 美元，但是——就好像你没有未来一样。
They put you in a situation where, after a while, you're going to fail.
他们将你置于这样的境地：一段时间后，你就会失败。
And if you don't have anything saved, you can't do anything.
如果你没有保存任何东西，你就什么也做不了。
It's hard.
这很难。
Richard, like more than 4 million Americans at this point, is fighting to keep his home.
理查德和目前超过 400 万的美国人一样，正在为保住自己的家而奋斗。
And we actually tagged along with him one day as he did that.
有一天，当他这样做时，我们实际上也跟着他。
How's it going?
怎么样了？
Kerry Campbell.
凯瑞·坎贝尔。
Nice to meet you.
很高兴见到你。
Good, how you doing, sir?
很好，你好吗，先生？
The offices of NACA, the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America in Newark, New Jersey, were short on frills.
NACA（美国邻里援助公司）位于新泽西州纽瓦克的办公室缺乏装饰。
Kerry Campbell, who's helping Richard today, is a counselor here.
今天帮助理查德的克里·坎贝尔是这里的辅导员。
Kerry shows Richard the loan documents he filled out when he bought the house by his original broker.
克里向理查德展示了他在原来的经纪人那里购买房子时填写的贷款文件。
And Richard's pretty surprised when he sees the numbers that his mortgage broker filled in on the forms.
当理查德看到抵押贷款经纪人在表格上填写的数字时，他感到非常惊讶。
Here it's saying your base employment income was $16,250 a month.
此处表示您的基本就业收入为每月 16,250 美元。
What?
什么？
Kerry Campbell $16,250 a month, which means your salary on a yearly basis, you're making just under $200,000, 195, to be exact.
Kerry Campbell 每月 16,250 美元，这意味着你的年薪略低于 200,000 美元，准确地说是 195 美元。
I wish.
我希望。
In 2005, right-- are they using my 2005 taxes?-- I was making $37,000 a year.
2005 年，对吧——他们用的是我 2005 年的税吗？——我每年赚 37,000 美元。
No. Adam Davidson So he stated $16,000 a month?
没有。 Adam Davidson 那么他说每月 16,000 美元？
To me, that is shocking.
对我来说，这令人震惊。
To you, it's not that shocking?
对你来说，这不是那么令人震惊吗？
Oh, that's outrageous, but it's a common thing.
哦，这确实很离谱，但这是常见的事情。
It's worlds apart from the reality and what's on a lot of these documents.
这与现实以及许多此类文件中的内容相差甚远。
Another thing the papers reveal?
报纸还透露了另一件事？
How much that creative broker made: $18,500.
那位创意经纪人赚了多少钱：18,500 美元。
As Kerry says, that's 18,000 reasons to falsify Richard's mortgage documents and to put him in a house he can't afford.
正如克里所说，这是伪造理查德抵押贷款文件并让他住进他买不起的房子的 18,000 个理由。
Coming up, we travel in time from May 2008, when this was all recorded, to the present, to answer what happened to Richard?
接下来，我们从2008年5月这一切被记录下来到现在，来回答理查德到底发生了什么？
Did he keep his house?
他保住了他的房子吗？
And when the economy collapsed, which of these other guys kept their houses?
当经济崩溃时，哪些人保住了自己的房子？
In a minute, from Chicago Public Radio and Public Radio International, when our program continues.
稍后，芝加哥公共广播电台和国际公共广播电台将继续我们的节目。
This American Life.
这美国生活。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Each week in our show, we choose some theme, some topic, and bring you stories on that topic.
在我们的节目中，我们每周都会选择一些主题，并为您带来有关该主题的故事。
Today, we return to the giant pool of money.
今天，我们回到巨额资金池。
In the first half of our program today, we heard a story first broadcast in May 2008, before the worst of the economic crisis.
在今天节目的前半部分，我们听到了 2008 年 5 月首次播出的故事，当时是经济危机最严重的时期。
And over just the last few weeks, Adam Davidson and Alex Blumberg have been checking in with various people in that story to see what has happened to them, what has changed for them in the last 18 months.
就在过去的几周里，亚当·戴维森 (Adam Davidson) 和亚历克斯·布隆伯格 (Alex Blumberg) 一直在与故事中的各个人物进行交流，了解他们在过去 18 个月里发生了什么，发生了什么变化。
And to find out how they see things now, here's Alex.
为了了解他们现在如何看待事物，亚历克斯来了。
Let's start with some good news.
让我们从一些好消息开始。
Richard Campbell, the Marine we spoke to, a year and a half ago, he wasn't sure if he was going to keep his house.
我们采访过的海军陆战队员理查德·坎贝尔（Richard Campbell），一年半前，他不确定自己是否会保留自己的房子。
And he was working with NACA, a housing advocacy group, to see if they could convince the bank to lower his mortgage payments.
他正在与住房倡导组织 NACA 合作，看看能否说服银行降低他的抵押贷款还款额。
With the help of NACA, the payments were cut in half.
在 NACA 的帮助下，付款减少了一半。
It's very manageable now.
现在非常容易管理。
So that's the good news.
这就是好消息。
He went from paying nearly six grand a month to just under three grand.
他每月支付的费用从近六英镑减少到了不到三英镑。
But the bad news is, it's taken up most of the last year and a half to get this done.
但坏消息是，完成这项工作花费了过去一年半的大部分时间。
The problem was, Richard, like a lot of people, bought his house with two mortgages, and the second mortgage, NACA couldn't help him with.
问题是，理查德和很多人一样，用两笔抵押贷款买了自己的房子，而第二笔抵押贷款，NACA 却帮不了他。
And so Richard has spent a year and a half battling his mortgage servicing companies, waiting on hold, getting transferred to different supervisors.
因此，理查德花了一年半的时间与他的抵押贷款服务公司抗争，等待搁置，被转移到不同的监管机构。
He says he got within two days of getting foreclosed on.
他说他在被取消赎回权后两天内就得到了赎回权。
And it's taken its toll.
这已经造成了损失。
Your body just goes through weird things.
你的身体会经历一些奇怪的事情。
I didn't know stress was so powerful.
我不知道压力如此强大。
Your body goes through a lot.
你的身体经历了很多。
Wait, wait, wait.
等等，等等，等等。
You fought in Iraq as a Marine, and this was more stressful?
你作为一名海军陆战队员在伊拉克作战，这压力更大吗？
Yeah.
是的。
Believe it or not, yeah.
不管你信不信，是的。
It was.
是的。
It's a lot harder to deal with than shooting at people and having people shoot back at you, believe it or not.
不管你信不信，这比向人开枪并让人们向你开枪要困难得多。
It's hard to believe.
很难相信。
Having come back from Iraq, I'm sure you would've thought, well, that was the most stressful thing I'll ever do, right?
从伊拉克回来后，我相信你会想，嗯，这是我做过的最有压力的事情，对吧？
Yes.
是的。
I definitely thought, once I had beat that, I could beat anything.
我确信，一旦我战胜了它，我就可以战胜任何事情。
But it's a different type of feeling.
但这是一种不同类型的感觉。
Because they train you for combat in the military.
因为他们训练你在军队中作战。
Nobody trains you for this type of stress, no one.
没有人训练你应对这种压力，没有人。
And it's different when, in this situation, I felt totally alone.
当我在这种情况下感到完全孤独时，情况就不同了。
I had no one to turn to, so that's a totally different feeling.
我没有人可以求助，所以这是一种完全不同的感觉。
Richard's luck started to change, actually, while he was watching one of those local morning shows, Good Day New York .
事实上，当理查德正在观看当地的早间节目《纽约好日子》时，他的运气开始发生变化。
They were doing a segment on President Obama's mortgage relief plan.
他们正在做一个关于奥巴马总统的抵押贷款减免计划的片段。
Richard realized, hey, they're talking about me.
理查德意识到，嘿，他们在谈论我。
I have a mortgage I can't afford.
我有抵押贷款，无力承担。
I have a history of trying to pay but not being able to because of a ridiculously high interest rate.
我有尝试付款但由于利率高得离谱而无法付款的历史。
I qualify for that plan.
我有资格参加该计划。
But even after that, it was still months trying to convince his mortgage company that he actually qualified, months of arguing with people on the phone and sending in different documents.
但即使在那之后，他仍然花了几个月的时间试图让他的抵押贷款公司相信他确实符合资格，与人们在电话中争论并发送不同的文件。
Until finally, one day, he got a call from a guy named Peter at his mortgage servicing company.
直到有一天，他接到了抵押贷款服务公司一位名叫彼得的人的电话。
They said, Mr. Campbell, we have good news.
他们说，坎贝尔先生，我们有好消息。
We're able to modify your loan, and these are the terms.
我们可以修改您的贷款，这些是条款。
And they started telling me the terms.
他们开始告诉我条款。
Tears started coming to my eyes when he said, we're going to go from 11 and 1/4 down to 3%.
当他说我们要从 11%又 1/4 下降到 3% 时，我的眼泪开始流下来。
And then I said, is it fixed, or will it still balloon?
然后我说，它是固定的，还是还会膨胀？
He said, there's no balloon.
他说，没有气球。
It'll be fixed for the life of the loan.
它将在贷款期限内修复。
You pay this mortgage for 30 years, the house is yours.
你支付30年的抵押贷款，房子就是你的了。
When I talk about it now, I still get that warm and fuzzy.
当我现在谈论它时，我仍然感到温暖和模糊。
What'd you do?
你做了什么？
Did you call your fiance, or how did you--
你给你的未婚夫打电话了吗？或者你是怎么——
Oh, yeah.
哦，是的。
I ran around the living room.
我在客厅里跑来跑去。
And then I went and I grabbed her and I picked her up.
然后我走过去，抓住她，把她抱起来。
And she was like, what's going on?
她说，发生了什么事？
And then I told her.
然后我告诉她。
And then we started jumping up and down.
然后我们开始上蹿下跳。
It was a beautiful feeling, beautiful feeling.
那是一种很美好的感觉，很美好的感觉。
Simply, the situation is the same.
简单来说，情况是一样的。
Inexplicably, the situation is the same.
莫名其妙，情况竟然是一样的。
This is Clarence Nathan.
这是克拉伦斯·内森。
He's the guy from the beginning of the program who got that $540,000 loan that he wouldn't have given himself.
他从项目一开始就获得了 540,000 美元的贷款，而他自己是不会贷款的。
You remember him.
你还记得他。
It's almost like you pass a guy in the street.
这几乎就像你在街上经过一个人一样。
Will you loan me $540,000?
你能借给我54万美元吗？
He said, well, what do you do?
他说，那你做什么？
I ain't got a job.
我没有工作。
OK.
好的。
When we met Clarence in March of 2008, he was living in that house, the one that he'd gotten the loan on, and he hadn't paid a mortgage payment in about a year.
当我们在 2008 年 3 月见到克拉伦斯时，他住在那所房子里，也就是他获得贷款的房子里，而且他已经大约一年没有支付抵押贷款了。
When we caught up with him last week, he wasn't so eager to call attention to his situation.
当我们上周采访他时，他并没有那么急于引起人们对他处境的关注。
So current living situation?
那么目前的生活状况如何呢？
Clarence Nathan Is the same as it was at the time of the last program and our initial interview.
克拉伦斯·内森（Clarence Nathan）与上一期节目和我们初次采访时一样。
The same house?
同一个房子？
Clarence Nathan The same house, the same conditions.
克拉伦斯·内森 同样的房子，同样的条件。
And at that point, you hadn't paid a mortgage bill in a while, and you just didn't know what was going to happen.
那时，您已经有一段时间没有支付抵押贷款账单了，您只是不知道会发生什么。
Right.
正确的。
Still don't.
还是不行。
Alex Blumberg And still haven't paid?
Alex Blumberg 还没有付款？
Right.
正确的。
Alex Blumberg Wow.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格 哇。
That's very mysterious, isn't it?
这很神秘，不是吗？
Yeah.
是的。
Like I said, nobody's made any efforts to negotiate it out.
就像我说的，没有人做出任何努力来谈判解决这个问题。
This is something we hear about a lot.
这是我们经常听到的事情。
There's so many more mortgages in default right now, it's overwhelming the system.
现在违约的抵押贷款太多了，系统不堪重负。
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that there are 1.2 million homeowners with seriously delinquent mortgages where the lender has made no effort to start foreclosure.
《华尔街日报》最近报道称，有 120 万房主严重拖欠抵押贷款，而贷款机构却没有采取任何措施开始取消抵押品赎回权。
In July of this year, there were more than 200,000 mortgages where borrowers hadn't made a payment in over a year, and the lender still hadn't started to foreclose.
今年7月，有超过20万笔抵押贷款的借款人一年多没有还款，而贷款人仍然没有开始取消抵押品赎回权。
And so homeowners like Clarence are actually benefiting from the fact that the economy is doing so badly, that this crisis is so big.
因此，像克拉伦斯这样的房主实际上受益于经济表现如此糟糕、这场危机如此严重这一事实。
If it was just Clarence in trouble, the bank would probably have taken his house by now.
如果只是克拉伦斯遇到麻烦，银行现在可能已经没收了他的房子。
But since there're so many people like him flooding the system, he's gotten a reprieve.
但由于有这么多像他这样的人涌入系统，他得到了缓刑。
Looked at one way, this hasn't gone so badly for Clarence.
从某种角度来看，这对克拉伦斯来说并没有那么糟糕。
He's lived in a house for free for nearly three years.
他免费住在一所房子里已经快三年了。
But on the other hand, he's 64 years old, and the bank could come for the house at any moment.
但另一方面，他已经64岁了，银行随时可能来拿房子。
He told us he doesn't think it's likely he'll ever get out of the debt he got into in this crisis.
他告诉我们，他认为自己不太可能摆脱在这场危机中欠下的债务。
Now, what about the guys who made it so easy for Clarence and Richard to get into these bad mortgages, the guys who took those mortgages and lots of other mortgages like them, packaged them up, and sold them to the giant pool of money?
现在，那些让克拉伦斯和理查德如此容易陷入这些不良抵押贷款的人，那些接受这些抵押贷款和许多类似的其他抵押贷款，将它们打包并卖给巨大资金池的人呢？
Take Jim Finkel, the guy at the CDO factory.
以 CDO 工厂的吉姆·芬克尔 (Jim Finkel) 为例。
Intellectually, he knew that he was making his CDOs out of loans to people like Clarence.
从理智上来说，他知道他是通过向克拉伦斯这样的人提供贷款来制作抵押担保债券的。
But it took him a long time, even after this huge crisis hit, to really understand what that meant.
但即使在这场巨大的危机袭来之后，他还是花了很长时间才真正理解这意味着什么。
I always like to say that the people in our world, which is this narrow world within Wall Street, the people that are involved in derivatives, with complex financial engineering, they work in a very narrow, focused area.
我总是喜欢说，我们这个世界，也就是华尔街这个狭窄的世界，那些参与衍生品、拥有复杂金融工程的人们，他们在一个非常狭窄、集中的领域工作。
And I like to sometimes call them bark watchers.
我有时喜欢称他们为树皮观察者。
They don't just miss the forest for the trees.
他们不只见树木不见森林。
They miss the tree, they're looking at things so closely.
他们想念那棵树，他们如此仔细地观察事物。
And I think that was the problem.
我认为这就是问题所在。
It was incredibly hard for people in the structure of finance world to step back far enough to see what was really going on out there.
对于金融界结构中的人们来说，退一步看清外面到底发生了什么是非常困难的。
What was really going on out there was a lot of loans to people like Clarence.
真正发生的事情是向克拉伦斯这样的人提供了大量贷款。
But by the time those loans got to Jim, they were just numbers and data in a spreadsheet, credit scores and appraisal values and down payment amounts.
但当这些贷款到达吉姆手中时，它们只是电子表格中的数字和数据、信用评分、评估值和首付金额。
Which is why Jim Finkel believed that the CDOs he was making were good investments, investments that he himself wanted in on.
这就是为什么吉姆·芬克尔 (Jim Finkel) 相信他所做的 CDO 是很好的投资，是他自己想要参与的投资。
We put three years of all of our profits as investments in the riskiest parts of our own deals.
我们将三年所有利润投资于我们自己交易中风险最高的部分。
Why would we do that if we didn't believe they'd work?
如果我们不相信它们会起作用，我们为什么要这样做呢？
Where's that money now?
那些钱现在在哪里？
Jim Finkel We wrote all that money off.
吉姆·芬克尔 我们把所有的钱都注销了。
It's gone.
它消失了。
It's gone.
它消失了。
And we've had to completely rebuild.
我们必须彻底重建。
There's certainly a perception that, oh, the guys who created all this mess are now making lots of money.
当然，人们会认为，哦，那些造成这一切混乱的人现在赚了很多钱。
And you're saying you've lost lots of money.
你说你损失了很多钱。
Are you typical of the guys who created CDOs, or are there guys who found a way to somehow profit from this period?
您是创建 CDO 的典型人，还是有人找到了某种方法从这一时期获利？
Well, I think you have to distinguish between the investment banks and the capital markets people and the investment managers.
嗯，我认为你必须区分投资银行和资本市场人员以及投资经理。
And just to explain, investment managers like Jim are subcontractors to the investment banks on Wall Street.
简单说明一下，像吉姆这样的投资经理是华尔街投资银行的分包商。
A big Wall Street firm like Merrill Lynch would come to Jim and say, we have some people who want to buy a CDO, can you put one together for us?
像美林这样的华尔街大公司会来找吉姆说，我们有些人想购买 CDO，你能为我们准备一个吗？
And then Jim and his company would go about buying up various mortgage-related securities and putting them together into the CDO.
然后吉姆和他的公司将着手购买各种抵押贷款相关证券并将它们组合成 CDO。
But those investment bankers who hired him to put those deals together, they got paid in fees.
但那些聘请他来整合这些交易的投资银行家却获得了费用。
Every deal would get a 1 or 2% fee.
每笔交易都会收取 1% 或 2% 的费用。
So let's just keep doing billions of dollars of deals, and that'll rack up the tens and twenties of millions of dollars in fees.
因此，让我们继续进行数十亿美元的交易，这将增加数千万至2000万美元的费用。
Those guys took a lot of upfront fees of those deals, and they took bonuses out of those upfront fees.
这些人从这些交易中收取了大量的预付费用，并从这些预付费用中获取了奖金。
And even though their banks went belly-up, those bonuses were never called back.
即使他们的银行破产了，这些奖金也从未被收回。
A lot of people made enormous amounts of money and moved on.
很多人赚了很多钱并继续前进。
Some of the mentors I've had who are more experienced and older than me, they all tried to convince me all the time that people on Wall Street were bad.
我的一些导师比我更有经验，也比我年长，他们一直试图让我相信华尔街的人都很糟糕。
I started my career, pretty much, on Wall Street.
我的职业生涯几乎是在华尔街开始的。
And I thought all the colleagues around me-- no one seemed to be bad.
我觉得我周围的所有同事——似乎没有人是坏人。
Everyone seemed to be trying their hardest.
每个人似乎都在竭尽全力。
And this set of events did convince me that people on Wall Street generally are bad, and that the customer does not come first.
而这一系列事件确实让我相信，华尔街的人普遍都是坏人，顾客并不是第一位的。
And it's not a client-driven business.
而且这不是一个以客户为导向的业务。
It is a business driven much more for the bank.
对于银行来说，这是一项更受驱动的业务。
Because I saw how quickly the banks turned on their customers, including how the banks have turned on us.
因为我看到银行如何迅速地背叛他们的客户，包括银行如何背叛我们。
How they withdrew their credit lines, how they traded against us.
他们如何撤回信用额度，如何与我们进行交易。
They've done anything they can.
他们已经尽力了。
And that was dispiriting.
这令人沮丧。
And it just proved that my mentors were correct, and I was overly idealistic.
而这恰恰证明了我的导师是正确的，我过于理想化了。
Of all the people we caught up with, Glen Pizzolorusso was the most transformed.
在我们遇到的所有人中，格伦·皮佐罗鲁索（Glen Pizzolorusso）是变化最大的。
Remember, he was the guy who used to party with B-list celebrities like Tara Reid, with all the cars and houses.
请记住，他曾经是那个和塔拉·里德（Tara Reid）这样的二线名人一起聚会的人，有很多汽车和房子。
When we last spoke to him in spring of 2008, the company he worked for had gone out of business, and he'd lost almost everything.
当我们最后一次与他交谈是在 2008 年春天时，他工作的公司已经倒闭，他几乎失去了一切。
He had one house left, but his loan on that house was for a lot more than the house itself was now worth.
他还剩下一栋房子，但他在那栋房子上的贷款比房子本身现在的价值要高得多。
I was way upside-down on the house, not able to make the payments.
我对房子感到很不安，无法支付费用。
And we let the house foreclose.
我们让房子丧失抵押品赎回权。
It made no sense to fight it.
与之抗争毫无意义。
In other words, both of the guys in our story who got home loans that they couldn't pay back, Richard and Clarence, they're still living in their houses.
换句话说，我们故事中的两个人，理查德和克拉伦斯，都获得了无法偿还的住房贷款，但他们仍然住在自己的房子里。
And the guy who made millions making loans like the ones that they got, he's the one who lost his house.
那个通过像他们获得的贷款一样赚了数百万美元的人，他就是那个失去了房子的人。
Glen says he can't afford to rent, so he and his wife and three kids ARE living now in a place that his dad owns.
格伦说他付不起房租，所以他和他的妻子以及三个孩子现在住在他父亲拥有的地方。
Actually, where I grew up.
事实上，我长大的地方。
Well, I lived there till I was nine years old.
嗯，我在那里住到九岁。
It's crazy.
太疯狂了。
I send my kids to timeout, and it's the same place that I got sent to timeout.
我让我的孩子们暂停，这也是我被暂停的地方。
So it's actually really cool.
所以这实际上真的很酷。
I know where everything goes.
我知道一切都去哪儿了。
I didn't have to really think about where to put things.
我不需要真正考虑把东西放在哪里。
My wife asked me where to put things, and I said, well, it was there when I was growing up, so let's put it there.
我妻子问我把东西放在哪里，我说，好吧，我长大的时候就在那里了，所以就放在那里吧。
If it sounds like Glen is doing strangely OK, he is.
如果听起来格伦的表现出奇地好，那么他确实是的。
Losing a few million dollars has actually made his life better, in ways we'll get to in a minute.
损失几百万美元实际上让他的生活变得更好，我们稍后会谈到。
But first, things got a lot worse.
但首先，事情变得更糟了。
For starters, he became a villain on the internet.
首先，他成为了互联网上的恶棍。
People who heard our original story singled him out as someone to blame.
听过我们最初故事的人认为他是罪魁祸首。
Which seemed unfair to us, because Glen was certainly not responsible for this crisis.
这对我们来说似乎不公平，因为格伦肯定不对这场危机负责。
We've interviewed dozens of people who made much more money than Glen did and played much bigger roles.
我们采访了数十位比格伦赚更多钱、扮演更重要角色的人。
Glen was just more honest than anybody else we talked to, and he was honest about things that he knew would make him look bad.
格伦比我们交谈过的任何人都诚实，他对那些他知道会让他看起来很糟糕的事情很诚实。
But he says we didn't help him any, either.
但他说我们也没有帮助他。
There was one line in particular, the one where I said he made all this money making very large loans to very poor people.
特别是其中有一句台词，我说他通过向非常贫穷的人提供大量贷款而赚到了所有这些钱。
I think that maybe in the in the vein of the story, that statement got a little carried away.
我认为也许在故事的脉络中，这种说法有点得意忘形了。
Right.
正确的。
I think it came across as that you and everybody out there was out there preying on poor people.
我认为这给人的印象是你和那里的每个人都在掠夺穷人。
Right.
正确的。
There was no malice, and I never set out to hurt anyone.
我没有恶意，也从未打算伤害任何人。
I just did what I saw everyone else doing.
我只是做了我看到其他人在做的事情。
Talking to Glen now, he seems like a guy in the early stages of a major life change.
现在与格伦交谈，他似乎正处于人生重大转变的早期阶段。
He's going back to college.
他要回大学了。
He loves school now.
他现在喜欢上学了。
He used to always hate it.
他以前总是讨厌它。
In fact, he does a lot of things he never used to do, like listen to the news and read books.
事实上，他做了很多以前从未做过的事情，比如听新闻、看书。
He spends a lot of time with his kids now, no time at all with B-list celebrities.
他现在花很多时间和孩子们在一起，根本没有时间和二流明星在一起。
He wants to get his degree in theology and law and then go into politics.
他想获得神学和法律学位，然后从政。
He says he really wants to do some good in the world.
他说他真的很想为世界做一些好事。
But he points out, his big life change, at first, anyway, it was not his choice.
但他指出，他人生的重大转变，一开始无论如何都不是他的选择。
I have been humbled.
我已经谦卑了。
I've been forced to be humbled.
我被迫谦虚。
I used to look at mortgage applications, and the people, their income was $2,500 a month, $3,000 a month.
我曾经看过抵押贷款申请，人们的收入是每月 2,500 美元，每月 3,000 美元。
And I used to think, how can people live on that?
我曾经想，人们怎么能靠这个生活呢？
And I would welcome it now.
我现在就欢迎它。
I would be able to live on it so comfortably.
我就可以靠它过得很舒服了。
I'm driving a car that has no payment on it.
我驾驶的汽车没有付款。
It's a piece of junk.
这是一块垃圾。
And I used to think that it mattered.
我曾经认为这很重要。
But it doesn't.
但事实并非如此。
I'm picturing an alternative Glen, the Glen from the world where there was no bubble bursting, where the Glen who's still making $100,000 a month, who still has that lifestyle.
我正在想象另一个格伦，那个没有泡沫破灭的世界的格伦，那个格伦仍然每月赚 10 万美元，仍然过着那种生活方式。
And I am picturing meeting that Glen today, and I feel like I like this Glen a lot more.
我想象着今天见到那个格伦，我觉得我更喜欢这个格伦。
Without a doubt.
无疑。
Well, because, how do I explain this, other than that Glen was about Glen.
好吧，因为，除了格伦就是关于格伦之外，我该如何解释这一点。
And this Glen is about what I can bring to-- trying not to sound cliche-- to society, what I can bring to my family, what I can do to make sure that we don't keep creating that Glen?
这个格伦是关于我能为社会带来什么——尽量不要听起来陈词滥调——我能为我的家庭带来什么，我能做些什么来确保我们不会继续创造那个格伦？
I feel like you're really emotional talking about this now.
我觉得你现在谈论这件事真的很情绪化。
Why?
为什么？
I don't know why.
我不知道为什么。
I think part of it is shame that I let the money take me over.
我认为我让钱控制了我，这在一定程度上是一种耻辱。
I should've helped people when I was making that money.
当我赚到钱的时候，我应该帮助别人。
I should've done things that I could sit here and be proud of with it.
我应该做一些我可以坐在这里并为此感到自豪的事情。
And I didn't.
但我没有。
I didn't do anything that I can really be proud of with it.
我没有做任何值得我真正自豪的事情。
So another character in our story that we wanted to check in on is the giant pool of money itself, all that money global investors have that they're looking to invest somewhere.
因此，我们故事中我们想要检查的另一个角色是巨大的资金池本身，即全球投资者拥有的所有资金，他们希望在某个地方进行投资。
When we last met the giant pool of money before the financial collapse, it was big, $70 trillion.
当我们在金融崩溃之前最后一次见到这个巨大的资金池时，它的规模很大，达到了 70 万亿美元。
And it was growing fast.
而且它增长得很快。
It had doubled in six years.
六年内翻了一番。
So we checked back in.
所以我们又回来检查了。
We called the International Monetary Fund and found out a few interesting things.
我们给国际货币基金组织打电话，发现了一些有趣的事情。
One, that 70 trillion number, that was wrong.
第一，70万亿这个数字是错误的。
The IMF had underestimated how much money there is and how fast it had grown.
国际货币基金组织低估了货币数量及其增长速度。
Back in 2007, that number really should have been almost $80 trillion.
早在 2007 年，这个数字实际上应该接近 80 万亿美元。
And today, two years later, we talked to the very same person, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.
两年后的今天，我们采访了同一个人，Ceyla Pazarbasioglu。
Very nicely done.
做得非常好。
Alex Blumberg Thank you.
亚历克斯布隆伯格谢谢你。
After nearly two years of recession, the collapse of housing prices all over the world, the giant pool of money has, according to her, grown.
据她说，经过近两年的经济衰退和世界各地房价的暴跌，巨额资金已经增长。
The IMF thinks it is now about $84 trillion.
国际货币基金组织认为现在约为 84 万亿美元。
Now, we were shocked that it grew at all.
现在，我们对它居然增长了感到震惊。
Of course.
当然。
Adam Davidson But here's the context.
亚当·戴维森：但背景是这样的。
The bursting of the housing bubble did do some damage to the giant pool of money.
房地产泡沫的破裂确实对庞大的资金池造成了一些损害。
The IMF thinks investors in subprime securities and the like lost at least $3 trillion.
国际货币基金组织认为，次贷证券等投资者至少损失了 3 万亿美元。
That's like losing all the money spent in a year in Russia and Canada combined.
这相当于损失了在俄罗斯和加拿大一年花掉的所有钱。
So given all that, how did the giant pool of money get bigger?
那么考虑到这一切，巨额资金是如何变得更大的呢？
Well, two major things happened.
嗯，发生了两件大事。
One, investors pulled money out of stock markets all around the world and added it to the giant pool of money.
第一，投资者从世界各地的股票市场撤资，并将其添加到庞大的资金池中。
Two, government stepped in.
二是政府介入。
The Federal Reserve and central banks all over the world actually created trillions of new dollars and euros and yen.
美联储和世界各地的中央银行实际上创造了数万亿美元、欧元和日元。
It's more new money than ever before, and much of that has made its way into the giant pool.
新资金比以往任何时候都多，其中大部分已经进入了这个巨大的资金池。
In other words, the giant pool of money would probably have shrunk by a good amount, except the world's governments and the world's central banks have been pumping out trillions of dollars to keep the world economy from complete collapse.
换句话说，除非世界各国政府和世界中央银行一直抽出数万亿美元来防止世界经济完全崩溃，否则庞大的资金池可能会大幅缩水。
But while the size of the giant pool of money has gotten bigger, its attitude has gotten a lot smaller.
然而，尽管巨额资金池的规模变得更大，但它的态度却变得小了很多。
Remember that army of investment managers?
还记得那支投资经理大军吗？
The nervous guys?
紧张的家伙们？
Alex Blumberg Yeah.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格 是的。
Well, two years ago, there wasn't anything in the world they wouldn't throw money at.
好吧，两年前，世界上没有什么是他们不会花钱的。
They'd take any risk for a bit of return.
为了一点回报，他们愿意冒任何风险。
Now, they're terrified.
现在，他们害怕了。
They want to invest in solid, safe, boring, low-interest government bonds.
他们想投资可靠、安全、乏味、低息的政府债券。
The safer, the better.
越安全越好。
One of the hottest items out there right now, one-month treasury bills, paying effectively 0% interest.
目前最热门的项目之一是一个月期国库券，实际上支付 0% 的利息。
Meanwhile, as you've probably noticed, credit is tight everywhere.
与此同时，正如您可能已经注意到的那样，各地的信贷都很紧张。
People with great credit scores and a lot of money in the bank have a hard time getting approved for home loans.
信用评分较高且银行存款较多的人很难获得住房贷款批准。
Businesses can't convince anyone to lend them money to build new factories.
企业无法说服任何人借钱给他们建造新工厂。
Cities can't borrow money to build schools and hospitals.
城市无法借钱建造学校和医院。
That's a big part of why we've been stuck in this recession.
这是我们陷入这次衰退的一个重要原因。
The world's governments have tried to step in to supplement the giant pool of money, but the annual budgets of all the world's governments combined is less than $15 trillion.
世界各国政府都试图介入以补充庞大的资金池，但世界各国政府的年度预算加起来还不到15万亿美元。
That's less than one fifth the size of the world's investments.
这还不到全球投资规模的五分之一。
It turns out, there's just not enough government in the world to replace the lending the giant pool of money used to do.
事实证明，世界上没有足够的政府来取代巨额资金池过去的借贷行为。
And that is the reason nobody can say with certainty when the economy will get better again.
这就是为什么没人能肯定地说经济何时会再次好转。
Because we're waiting for investors everywhere to feel safe to invest again.
因为我们正在等待世界各地的投资者再次安全地进行投资。
We're all waiting on the giant pool of money.
我们都在等待巨额资金。
Alex Blumberg and Adam Davidson.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格和亚当·戴维森。
It was after they did the first giant pool of money broadcast that our show and NPR News decided that lots of economics reporting like this might be a good idea as we headed into tough economic times.
正是在他们播出了第一个巨额资金池之后，我们的节目和 NPR 新闻才决定，在我们进入艰难的经济时期时，进行大量这样的经济报道可能是个好主意。
And we started this project, Planet Money.
我们启动了这个项目，Planet Money。
If you liked today's program, check out their thrice-weekly podcast-- you're going to be getting this three times a week-- and their blog at www.npr.org/money.
如果您喜欢今天的节目，请查看他们每周三次的播客（您将每周观看三次）以及他们的博客：www.npr.org/money。
Alex Blumberg produced today's show with Jane Feltes, Sarah Koenig, Lisa Pollak, Robyn Semien, Alissa Shipp, and Nancy Updike.
Alex Blumberg 与 Jane Feltes、Sarah Koenig、Lisa Pollak、Robyn Semien、Alissa Shipp 和 Nancy Updike 共同制作了今天的节目。
Our senior producer was Julie Snyder.
我们的高级制片人是朱莉·斯奈德。
Our special guest editor for today's show was Les Cook of NPR News.
今天节目的特邀编辑是 NPR 新闻的莱斯·库克 (Les Cook)。
Adrianne Mathiowetz runs our website.
阿德琳娜·马修韦茨 (Adrianne Mathiowetz) 负责运营我们的网站。
Production help from Seth Lind, Emily Youssef, and Aaron Scott.
Seth Lind、Emily Youssef 和 Aaron Scott 为制作提供了帮助。
Music help from Jessica Hopper.
杰西卡·霍珀的音乐帮助。
[ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS] Our website, where you can listen to our show for absolutely free or sign up for our free weekly podcast, or you can also listen to any of the shows-- there's almost a half-dozen now that we've done with the Planet Money team explaining all aspects of the economy-- www.thisamericanlife.org.
[鸣谢] 在我们的网站上，您可以完全免费收听我们的节目，也可以注册我们的免费每周播客，或者您也可以收听任何节目——现在我们已经与 Planet Money 团队合作完成了近六个节目，解释了经济的各个方面——www.thisamericanlife.org。
This American Life is distributed by Public Radio International.
《美国生活》由国际公共广播电台发行。
WBEZ management oversight for our program by our boss, Mr. Torey Malatia.
我们的老板 Torey Malatia 先生对我们的项目进行 WBEZ 管理监督。
He and I, we like to go out at night together sometimes.
我和他有时喜欢晚上一起出去。
He's pretty chill.
他很冷淡。
Torey describes it like this.
托雷是这样描述的。
Everybody's like, whoa, who's the cool guys?
每个人都会说，哇，谁是最酷的人？
Well, we were the cool guys.
嗯，我们是很酷的人。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Back next week with more stories of This American Life .
下周我们将带来更多《美国生活》的故事。
This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.
《This American Life》与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。