355: The Giant Pool of Money - This American Life

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00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #355 | May 9, 2008 355: The Giant Pool of Money Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.

00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 355 集 | 2008 年 5 月 9 日 355：巨额资金池 注：《美国生活》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。

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如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。

Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.

文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。

Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.

请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。

Prologue Ira Glass So Adam, where are we?

序言 Ira Glass 那么亚当，我们在哪里？

I recorded this at the Ritz Carlton in Lower Manhattan.

我在曼哈顿下城的丽思卡尔顿酒店录制了这段视频。

It's a black tie dinner.

这是一场黑领带晚餐。

It was just a few weeks ago.

就在几周前。

And you, by the way, are NPR's international business and economics correspondent?

And you, by the way, are NPR's international business and economics correspondent?

That's right.

这是正确的。

I was there for my job.

我在那里是为了我的工作。

They're giving out awards for all these financial securities, including the one that nearly brought down the global financial system in the whole sub-prime mortgage crisis.

他们为所有这些金融证券颁发奖项，其中包括在整个次贷危机中几乎摧毁全球金融体系的金融证券。

At this time, I'd like to ask all of our stars to please assemble over here on the left side of the stage--

At this time, I'd like to ask all of our stars to please assemble over here on the left side of the stage--

This guy is a legend.

这个人是一个传奇。

He's a granddaddy of our industry.

他是我们这个行业的鼻祖。

I'm sitting at this dinner with Jim Finkel.

我和吉姆·芬克尔坐在一起共进晚餐。

He's kind of nervous, because he's up for CDO of the year for the CDO he created, Monterey.

He's kind of nervous, because he's up for CDO of the year for the CDO he created, Monterey.

Now, the CDO, that's what we're talking about.

现在，CDO，这就是我们正在谈论的。

That's the financial instrument that was central to this global credit crisis we're in.

That's the financial instrument that was central to this global credit crisis we're in.

And they gave awards for this?

他们还为此颁发奖项？

These guys are giving each other awards for doing that?

这些家伙因为这样做而互相奖励？

Let me just say that they were aware that there's a certain irony, giving awards to the instrument that almost destroyed the world economy.

Let me just say that they were aware that there's a certain irony, giving awards to the instrument that almost destroyed the world economy.

And they did consider canceling this year.

他们确实考虑过今年取消。

But it's been a really tough year.

但这确实是艰难的一年。

It's been really gloomy for them.

对于他们来说，这实在是太悲惨了。

Honestly, I know this sounds-- I was really happy to see there were no major suicides, people weren't jumping off bridges, there weren't a lot of personal disasters.

老实说，我知道这听起来——我真的很高兴看到没有重大自杀事件，人们没有跳桥，没有太多个人灾难。

Now that same week, a few days earlier, across the river in Brooklyn, I went to a completely different kind of gathering.

同一周，几天前，在河对岸的布鲁克林，我参加了一场完全不同的聚会。

It was not black tie.

这不是黑领结。

It was put on by the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America.

It was put on by the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America.

It was people on the opposite side of the mortgage crisis, people facing foreclosure, trying to figure out how to keep their homes.

It was people on the opposite side of the mortgage crisis, people facing foreclosure, trying to figure out how to keep their homes.

I met this one guy, Richard.

我遇到了这个人，理查德。

He's a marine.

他是一名海军陆战队员。

He's this big guy, over six feet tall.

他是个大个子，身高超过六英尺。

And when he came back from Iraq a few years ago, he bought one of these fancy new mortgages with an adjustable rate.

几年前，当他从伊拉克回来时，他购买了一份利率可调的精美新抵押贷款。

Recently his rate reset.

最近他的利率重置了。

It has gone up by more than $2,000 a month.

每个月已经上涨了2000多美元。

And he has fallen behind on his payments.

他已经拖欠付款了。

It got to the point where-- one point, my son had $7,000 in a CD.

It got to the point where-- one point, my son had $7,000 in a CD.

And I had to break it.

我必须打破它。

And I mean that really hurt, because I was saving that money for his college.

我的意思是这真的很痛苦，因为我正在为他的大学存钱。

I mean, I put $2,000 back.

我的意思是，我还回了 2,000 美元。

But it's like you can't have a future.

但就像你不能拥有未来一样。

They put you in a situation where, after a while, you're going to fail.

They put you in a situation where, after a while, you're going to fail.

It's hard.

这很难。

Now, it's clear that these two groups are connected, Jim at his black tie dinner and Richard the marine.

Now, it's clear that these two groups are connected, Jim at his black tie dinner and Richard the marine.

The sub-prime crisis has connected them.

次贷危机将他们联系在一起。

Right, and I know that, basically, this is what sent you and one of the producers of our show, Alex Blumberg, on a big reporting mission these past few months.

是的，我知道，基本上，这就是您和我们节目的制作人之一亚历克斯·布隆伯格在过去几个月执行一项大型报道任务的原因。

You saw that, that there is this long chain of people that starts with these Wall Street guys and ends with people who stand to lose their houses.

你看到了，有一条长长的人链，从这些华尔街的家伙开始，到那些可能会失去房子的人结束。

And all along that chain there were bankers, and brokers, and investors, and homeowners.

沿着这条链条，有银行家、经纪人、投资者和房主。

And everybody along the chain kind of deluded themselves, thinking they could throw out the old rules of banking.

And everybody along the chain kind of deluded themselves, thinking they could throw out the old rules of banking.

Right, in all the coverage of this, we hadn't heard that much from the people all along the chain.

Right, in all the coverage of this, we hadn't heard that much from the people all along the chain.

We wanted to know, what were they thinking when they were doing all this?

We wanted to know, what were they thinking when they were doing all this?

And why did they think it would work?

为什么他们认为这会起作用？

And simply, how did it all work?

简而言之，这一切是如何运作的？

So, this is what we're devoting our program to today.

So, this is what we're devoting our program to today.

From WBEZ Chicago, it's This American Life , distributed by Public Radio International.

来自芝加哥 WBEZ 的《This American Life》，由国际公共广播电台发行。

I'm Ira Glass.

我是艾拉·格拉斯。

And today's show is a special co-production we're doing with NPR News, your place of employment, Adam.

And today's show is a special co-production we're doing with NPR News, your place of employment, Adam.

Very proudly so.

非常自豪如此。

Ira Glass You and Alex Blumberg are going to be explaining step-by-step how this all worked.

Ira Glass You 和 Alex Blumberg 将逐步解释这一切是如何运作的。

And we will meet some of the people who created this economic disaster.

And we will meet some of the people who created this economic disaster.

And so let me turn the show over to the two of you, which is great for me, because I've pretty much lost my voice anyway.

所以让我把节目交给你们两个，这对我来说很好，因为无论如何我都快失声了。

And Alex Blumberg will kick things off.

亚历克斯·布隆伯格将拉开序幕。

The thing that got me interested in all this was something called a NINA loan.

让我对这一切感兴趣的是一种叫做 NINA 贷款的东西。

Back when the housing crisis was still a housing bubble, a guy on the phone told me that a NINA loan stands for no income no asset.

当房地产危机还是房地产泡沫时，一个人在电话里告诉我，NINA 贷款代表没有收入，没有资产。

As in, someone will lend you a bunch of money without first checking to see if you have any income or any assets.

例如，有人会借给你一大笔钱，而不会先检查你是否有任何收入或任何资产。

And it was an official loan product, like you could walk into a mortgage broker's office and they would say, well, we can give you a 30 year fixed rate, or we could put you in a NINA.

这是一种官方贷款产品，就像您走进抵押贷款经纪人办公室一样，他们会说，好吧，我们可以为您提供 30 年固定利率，或者我们可以为您提供 NINA。

He said there were lots of loans like this, where the bank didn't actually check your income, which I found confusing.

He said there were lots of loans like this, where the bank didn't actually check your income, which I found confusing.

And it turns out even the people who got them found them confusing.

事实证明，即使是那些得到它们的人也发现它们令人困惑。

For example, a guy I met named Clarence Nathan.

例如，我遇到的一个名叫克拉伦斯·内森的人。

He worked three part-time, not very steady jobs, and made a total of $45,000 a year, roughly.

他打了三份兼职，不是很稳定，一年的总收入大约为 45,000 美元。

He got himself into trouble and needed money.

他给自己惹上了麻烦，需要钱。

So he took out a loan against his house, a big one.

于是他以自己的房子为抵押申请了一笔大笔贷款。

You basically borrowed $540,000 from the bank, and they didn't check your income?

你基本上从银行借了54万美元，他们没有检查你的收入？

It's a no income verification loan.

这是一项无需收入核实的贷款。

They don't call me up and say, how much money?

他们不会打电话给我，问我多少钱？

They don't do that.

他们不这样做。

I mean it's almost like you pass a guy in the street, and you say, will you lend me $540,000?

I mean it's almost like you pass a guy in the street, and you say, will you lend me $540,000?

He says, well what do you do?

他说，那你做什么？

Hey, I got a job.

嘿，我找到工作了。

OK.

好的。

It seems as if it's that casual, even though there are a lot of papers that get filled out and stuff flies all over with the faxes and the emails, and all like that.

看起来好像就是那么随意，尽管有很多文件要填写，东西随传真和电子邮件到处飞，诸如此类。

Essentially, that's the process.

本质上就是这个过程。

I wouldn't have loaned me the money.

我不会借钱给我的。

And nobody that I know would have loaned me the money.

And nobody that I know would have loaned me the money.

I mean, I know guys who are criminals that wouldn't lend me that money, and they'd break your kneecaps.

I mean, I know guys who are criminals that wouldn't lend me that money, and they'd break your kneecaps.

So [LAUGHING] yeah, I don't know why the bank did it.

所以[笑]是的，我不知道银行为什么这么做。

I'm serious.

我是认真的。

$540,000, a person with bad credit.

54万美元，一个信用不良的人。

As it turns out, Clarence's friends, acquaintances and shadowy criminal contacts would have been right not to lend him the money.

事实证明，克拉伦斯的朋友、熟人和可疑的犯罪联系人不借钱给他是正确的。

By the time I talked to him, Clarence hadn't made a payment in almost a year, and his house was in the process of foreclosure.

By the time I talked to him, Clarence hadn't made a payment in almost a year, and his house was in the process of foreclosure.

And stories like this have been in the news for months.

And stories like this have been in the news for months.

And they often feature an innocent homeowner who was duped by a lying, greedy mortgage banker.

它们通常以一个无辜的房主为主角，他被一个撒谎、贪婪的抵押贷款银行家欺骗。

Or if you're more of a Wall Street Journal editorial page type, an innocent mortgage banker who was duped by lying, greedy homeowner.

Or if you're more of a Wall Street Journal editorial page type, an innocent mortgage banker who was duped by lying, greedy homeowner.

And no doubt, both categories exist.

毫无疑问，这两个类别都存在。

But Clarence's case is more nuanced, and much more common.

But Clarence's case is more nuanced, and much more common.

Nobody came and told me a lie, and told me a story, and said, oh, just close your eyes, and all your problems will go away.

没有人来对我撒谎，给我讲故事，然后说，哦，只要闭上眼睛，所有的问题都会消失。

That wasn't the situation.

情况并非如此。

The situation was that I needed the money.

情况是我需要钱。

And I'm not trying to absolve myself of anything.

And I'm not trying to absolve myself of anything.

I had a situation.

我遇到了一个情况。

And I thought that I could do this, and then get out of it within six to nine months.

And I thought that I could do this, and then get out of it within six to nine months.

The six to nine month plan didn't work, so I'm stuck.

The six to nine month plan didn't work, so I'm stuck.

But if somebody had told me, you couldn't borrow the money, I probably would have had to do something else more drastic and dramatic, and not be in this situation now.

但如果有人告诉我，你借不到钱，我可能不得不做一些更激烈、更戏剧性的事情，而不是陷入现在的境地。

The bank made an imprudent loan.

银行提供了一笔不谨慎的贷款。

I made an imprudent loan.

我借了一笔不谨慎的贷款。

So the bank and I are partners in this deal.

所以银行和我是这笔交易的合作伙伴。

This imprudent partnership is new.

这种不谨慎的伙伴关系是新出现的。

And it's at the heart of the current housing crisis.

这是当前住房危机的核心。

For most of the history of banking, bankers wouldn't have loaned Clarence their money either.

For most of the history of banking, bankers wouldn't have loaned Clarence their money either.

They didn't let people like Clarence near their money, in fact, people with part time employment and unpaid debts in their past.

他们不让像克拉伦斯这样的人接近他们的钱，事实上，那些过去有兼职工作和未偿还债务的人。

And then suddenly in the early 2000s, everything changed.

And then suddenly in the early 2000s, everything changed.

Banking turned on its head and went out looking for partnerships with people like Clarence, loaning him half a million dollars without even checking to see if he had a job.

银行业发生了翻天覆地的变化，开始寻找与克拉伦斯这样的人的合作伙伴关系，甚至没有检查他是否有工作就借给了他 50 万美元。

What happened?

发生了什么？

Well to help explain what happened here is my partner for the hour, Adam Davidson, the international business reporter for NPR.

帮助解释这里发生的事情的是我的搭档，美国国家公共广播电台 (NPR) 的国际商业记者亚当·戴维森 (Adam Davidson)。

Hey, Adam.

嘿，亚当。

Hey, Alex.

嘿，亚历克斯。

Alex Blumberg How's it going?

亚历克斯·布隆伯格 怎么样？

Good.

好的。

Alex Blumberg I got your title right, right?

亚历克斯·布隆伯格（Alex Blumberg）我没听错你的头衔，对吧？

Yes.

是的。

Well, not exactly.

嗯，不完全是。

Alex Blumberg Oh, what is it?

亚历克斯·布隆伯格哦，这是什么？

It's international business and economics correspondent, actually.

实际上，这是国际商业和经济记者。

Oh, sorry.

哦，抱歉。

It actually sounds more impressive.

实际上听起来更令人印象深刻。

OK, so I guess the first thing we have to do is talk about the global pool of money, right?

OK, so I guess the first thing we have to do is talk about the global pool of money, right?

Right, the global pool of money, that's where our story begins.

对了，全球资金池，这就是我们的故事开始的地方。

Most people don't think about it, but there's this huge pool of money out there, which is basically all the money the world is saving now-- insurance companies saving for a catastrophe, pension funds saving money for retirement, the Central Bank of England saving for whatever central banks save for, all the world's savings.

大多数人都没有想到这一点，但那里有一个巨大的资金池，这基本上是全世界现在储蓄的所有钱——保险公司为灾难储蓄，养老基金为退休储蓄，英格兰中央银行为所有央行储蓄，全世界的储蓄。

That's the head of capital market research at the International Monetary Fund, the place to go if you want to figure out how much money is in the world.

那是国际货币基金组织资本市场研究主管，如果你想知道世界上有多少钱，你就应该去那里。

So first off, how do we pronounce your name?

首先，我们如何发音你的名字？

That will probably take, if this goes on air, probably, that will take two minutes at least.

That will probably take, if this goes on air, probably, that will take two minutes at least.

It's Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.

我是帕扎尔巴西奥卢，西拉·帕扎尔巴​​西奥卢。

Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.

塞拉·帕扎巴西奥卢。

Ceyla Pazarbasioglu I'm very impressed.

Ceyla Pazarbasioglu 给我留下了深刻的印象。

And by the way, before you finance enthusiasts start writing any letters, we do know that $70 trillion technically refers to that subset of global savings called fixed income securities.

顺便说一句，在各位金融爱好者开始写信之前，我们确实知道 70 万亿美元在技术上指的是全球储蓄中称为固定收益证券的子集。

Everyone else can just ignore what I just said.

其他人可以忽略我刚才说的话。

Let's put $70 trillion in perspective.

让我们展望一下 70 万亿美元。

Do this.

这样做。

Think about all the money that people spend everywhere in the world, everything you bought in the last year, all of it.

想想人们在世界各地花的所有钱，你去年买的所有东西，所有的一切。

Then add everything Bill Gates bought, and all the rice sold in China, and that fleet of planes Boeing just sold to South Korea, all the money spent in every country on Earth in a year.

然后加上比尔盖茨买的所有东西，在中国卖的所有大米，以及波音公司刚刚卖给韩国的机队，一年在地球上每个国家花的所有钱。

That is less than $70 trillion, less than the global pool of money.

That is less than $70 trillion, less than the global pool of money.

Wow.

哇。

Adam Davidson We're talking about a lot of money.

亚当·戴维森：我们谈论的是很多钱。

That is a lot of money.

那是很多钱。

Adam Davidson And that money comes along with armies of very nervous men and women watching over the pool of money.

亚当·戴维森（Adam Davidson） 这笔钱是由一群非常紧张的男男女女守护着资金池而来的。

Investment managers, they don't want to lose a penny of that.

投资经理，他们不想损失一分钱。

They don't want to lose any of that money, and, even more so, they want to make it grow bigger.

他们不想损失任何钱，更希望让它变得更大。

But to make it grow, they have to find something to invest in.

但为了让它成长，他们必须找到可以投资的东西。

So, most of modern history, what they did was they bought really safe and, frankly, really boring investments like treasuries and municipal bonds, boring things.

所以，在现代历史的大部分时间里，他们所做的就是购买非常安全、坦率地说非常无聊的投资，比如国债和市政债券，无聊的东西。

But then, right before our story starts, something changed, something happened to that global pool of money.

但就在我们的故事开始之前，一些事情发生了变化，全球资金池发生了一些事情。

This number doubled since 2000.

自 2000 年以来，这个数字翻了一番。

In 2000 this was about $36 trillion.

2000 年，这一数字约为 36 万亿美元。

So it took several hundred years for the world to get to $36 trillion.

因此，世界花费了数百年的时间才达到 36 万亿美元。

And then it took six years to get another $36 trillion.

然后又花了六年时间才获得另外 36 万亿美元。

Yeah, there has been a very sharp increase.

是的，增长非常急剧。

How does the world get twice as much money to invest?

世界如何获得双倍的资金进行投资？

There are lots of things that happen.

发生了很多事情。

But the main headline is that all sorts of poor countries became kind of rich, making things like TVs and selling us oil.

但主要的标题是，各种贫穷国家都变得富裕起来，生产电视之类的东西并向我们出售石油。

China, India, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia made a lot of money and banked it.

中国、印度、阿布扎比、沙特阿拉伯赚了很多钱并将其存入银行。

China, for example, has over a $1 trillion in its central bank.

例如，中国央行的存款超过1万亿美元。

And there are office buildings in Beijing filled with math geniuses, real math geniuses, looking for a place to invest it.

北京的办公楼里挤满了数学天才，真正的数学天才，正在寻找投资的地方。

And the world was not ready for all this new money.

而世界还没有准备好接受所有这些新资金。

There is twice as much money looking for investments, but there are not twice as many good investments.

寻找投资的资金是原来的两倍，但好的投资却没有原来的两倍。

So that global army of investment managers was hungrier and twitchier than ever before.

因此，全球投资经理大军比以往任何时候都更加饥饿和不安。

They all wanted the same thing, a nice, low-risk investment that paid some return.

他们都想要同样的东西，即一项良好的、低风险的、能带来一定回报的投资。

But then something happened that makes matters worse.

但后来发生了一些事情，让事情变得更糟。

At this precise moment, one guy took one of that army's favorite investments and made it a lot less attractive.

就在这个时刻，一个人拿走了那支军队最喜欢的投资之一，并使其吸引力大大降低。

This is where we have to talk about Alan Greenspan, right?

这就是我们必须谈论艾伦·格林斯潘的地方，对吧？

Yeah, we have to.

是的，我们必须这样做。

Alex Blumberg All right.

亚历克斯·布隆伯格 好吧。

But I'm just going to promise people that is the only time you're going to hear Alan Greenspan in this story.

但我要向人们保证，这是你唯一一次在这个故事中听到艾伦·格林斯潘的声音。

So bear with us.

所以请耐心等待。

All right.

好的。

Here's one of his speeches that really drove that army of investment managers crazy.

这是他的一次演讲，真正让投资经理大军疯狂。

The FOMC stands prepared to maintain a highly accommodative stance of policy for as long as needed to promote satisfactory economic performance.

只要需要促进令人满意的经济表现，联邦公开市场委员会随时准备维持高度宽松的政策立场。

You might not believe me, but that little statement, that is central banker's speak for, hey, global pool of money, screw you.

你可能不相信我，但是这个小声明，就是央行行长的代言词，嘿，全球资金池，去你的吧。

It is.

这是。

I speak central banker.

我说的是央行行长。

Believe me, that's what he said.

相信我，他就是这么说的。

What he is technically saying is he's going to keep the fed funds rate-- that's when you hear, the fed interest rate-- at the absurdly low level of 1%.

从技术上讲，他的意思是，他将把联邦基金利率（也就是你听到的联邦利率）保持在 1% 的低得离谱的水平。

And that sends a message to every investor in the world, you are not going to make any money at all on US Treasury bonds for a very long time.

这向世界上每一位投资者传达了一个信息：在很长一段时间内，你不会从美国国债上赚到任何钱。

Go somewhere else.

去别的地方吧。

We can't help you.

我们帮不了你。

And so the global pool of money-- which does speak central banker.

全球资金池也是如此——这确实是央行行长的说法。

They understood what he was saying-- they looked around for some low-risk high-return investment.

他们明白他在说什么——他们四处寻找一些低风险高回报的投资。

And among the many things they put their money into, there was this one thing that they fell in love with.

在他们投入金钱的众多事物中，有一件是他们爱上的。

To get it, they called Wall Street, a guy like this.

为了得到它，他们给华尔街这样的人打电话。

My name is Mike Francis.

我叫迈克·弗朗西斯。

During the beginning of the mortgage implosion, I was an employee, executive director at Morgan Stanley on the residential mortgage trading desk.

在抵押贷款危机爆发之初，我是摩根士丹利住宅抵押贷款交易部门的一名员工兼执行董事。

Mike was one link in a chain that connected the global pool of money to its new favorite investment, residential mortgages, the US housing market, and guys like Clarence Nathan.

迈克是连接全球资金池与其新宠投资、住宅抵押贷款、美国房地产市场以及像克拉伦斯·内森这样的人的链条中的一环。

Think how attractive a mortgage loan is to that $70 trillion pool of money.

想想抵押贷款对于这 70 万亿美元的资金池来说有多么有吸引力。

Remember, they're desperate to get any kind of interest return.

请记住，他们迫切希望获得任何形式的利息回报。

They want to beat that miserable 1% interest Greenspan is offering them.

他们想要击败格林斯潘向他们提供的可怜的 1% 利息。

And here are these homeowners paying 5%, 9% to borrow money from some bank.

这些房主支付 5%、9% 的利率从某家银行借钱。

So what if the global pool could get in on that action?

那么，如果全球矿池可以参与这一行动呢？

There are problems.

有问题。

Individual mortgages are too big a hassle for the global pool of money.

个人抵押贷款对于全球资金池来说是一个太大的麻烦。

They don't want to get mixed up with actual people, and their catastrophic health problems, and their divorces, and all the reasons that might stop them from paying their mortgages.

他们不想与现实中的人、他们灾难性的健康问题、他们的离婚以及所有可能阻止他们支付抵押贷款的原因混在一起。

So what Mike and his peers on Wall Street did, was to figure out a way to give the global pool of money all the benefits of a mortgage-- basically higher yield-- without all the hassle and risk.

因此，迈克和他在华尔街的同行所做的就是找到一种方法，让全球资金池能够享受抵押贷款的所有好处——基本上是更高的收益率——而没有任何麻烦和风险。

So picture the whole chain.

想象一下整个链条。

You have Clarence.

你有克拉伦斯。

He gets a mortgage from a broker.

他从经纪人那里获得抵押贷款。

The broker sells the mortgage to a small bank.

经纪人将抵押贷款出售给一家小银行。

The small bank sells the mortgage to a guy like Mike at a big investment firm on Wall Street.

这家小银行将抵押贷款卖给像迈克这样在华尔街一家大型投资公司工作的人。

Then Mike takes a few thousand mortgages he's bought this way, he puts them in one big pile.

然后迈克拿了他通过这种方式购买的几千张抵押贷款，他把它们放在一大堆里。

Now he's got thousands of mortgage checks coming to him every month.

现在，他每个月都会收到数千张抵押贷款支票。

It's a huge monthly stream of money, which is expected to come in for the next 30 years, the life of a mortgage.

这是每月的巨额资金流，预计在未来 30 年（即抵押贷款的期限）内流入。

And he then sells shares of that monthly income to investors.

然后他将每月收入的股票出售给投资者。

Those shares are called mortgage-backed securities.

这些股票称为抵押贷款支持证券。

And the $70 trillion global pool of money loved them.

全球 70 万亿美元的资金池都喜欢它们。

It was unbelievable.

这太令人难以置信了。

I mean, we almost couldn't produce enough to keep the appetite of our investors happy.

我的意思是，我们几乎无法生产足够的产品来满足投资者的胃口。

More people wanted bonds than we could actually produce.

想要债券的人比我们实际生产的要多。

That was our difficult task, was trying to produce enough.

这是我们的艰巨任务，就是努力生产足够的产品。

They would call and say, we're looking for more fixed rate.

他们会打电话说，我们正在寻找更固定的利率。

What have you got?

你有什么？

Do you have anything coming?

你有什么要来的吗？

What's going on?

这是怎么回事？

Tell us what you're trying to do.

告诉我们您想做什么。

From our standpoint, it's like, there's a guy out there with a lot of money.

从我们的角度来看，就像是一个有很多钱的人。

And we have got to find a way to become his sole provider of bonds, of mortgage bonds, to fill his appetite.

我们必须找到一种方法，成为他的债券、抵押贷款债券的唯一提供者，以满足他的胃口。

And his appetite's massive.

而且他的胃口很大。

The problem was, to make a mortgage-backed security, you needed mortgages.

问题是，要制作抵押贷款支持证券，您需要抵押贷款。

Lots of them.

很多。

So for Mike Francis to satisfy this demand and take his quite hefty fee from the global pool of money, he needed to buy up as many mortgages as possible.

因此，迈克·弗朗西斯为了满足这一需求并从全球资金池中收取相当高的费用，他需要购买尽可能多的抵押贷款。

And to do that, he called a guy one link below him on this mortgage-backed security chain, a guy named Mike Garner, who worked at the largest private mortgage bank in Nevada, called Silver State Mortgage.

为此，他给这个抵押贷款支持证券链上比他低一级的人打电话，这个人名叫迈克·加纳（Mike Garner），在内华达州最大的私人抵押贷款银行银州抵押贷款银行工作。

And to give you a sense of how fast this business was growing, Mike Garner got into the mortgage business straight from his previous job as a bartender.

为了让您了解这项业务的增长速度有多快，迈克·加纳 (Mike Garner) 从他之前的调酒师工作直接进入了抵押贷款业务。

One of my regulars, he actually hired me from the bar.

我的常客之一，他实际上从酒吧雇用了我。

He just said he needed some guys, and if I was interested in working for him.

他只是说他需要一些人，以及我是否有兴趣为他工作。

And then we started talking about how much I made and that.

然后我们开始谈论我赚了多少钱等等。

He beat me.

他打败了我。

He beat what I was making, so.

他打败了我所做的，所以。

I didn't know anything about the mortgage business.

我对抵押贷款业务一无所知。

I was as green as you could be.

我和你一样绿。

Mike Garner's job-- the guy in Nevada-- was to buy up individual mortgages, mainly from brokers, bundle 200 or 300 of them together, and then sell them up the chain to Wall Street, to guys like Mike Francis.

迈克·加纳（Mike Garner）是内华达州的一个人，他的工作主要是从经纪人那里购买个人抵押贷款，将 200 或 300 个抵押贷款捆绑在一起，然后沿着链条将它们卖给华尔街，卖给像迈克·弗朗西斯这样的人。

I know.

我知道。

So many Mikes.

这么多迈克。

There is actually just two Mikes.

实际上只有两个迈克。

There's Mike Francis, the guy on Wall Street, and Mike Garner, the guy we're talking about now.

有迈克·弗朗西斯（Mike Francis），华尔街的人，还有迈克·加纳（Mike Garner），我们现在正在谈论的人。

He's in Nevada.

他在内华达州。

Alex Blumberg He's in Nevada.

亚历克斯·布隆伯格 他在内华达州。

Right.

正确的。

And in the beginning, he'd only buy mortgages that were pretty standard and pretty safe.

一开始，他只购买相当标准且相当安全的抵押贷款。

Mortgages where people had come up with a down payment and proven that they had a steady income and money in the bank.

抵押贷款是指人们支付首付并证明他们有稳定的收入和银行存款。

And they sold so many of these mortgages that there came a point in 2003 where just about everybody who wanted a mortgage and was qualified to get one, had gotten one.

他们出售了如此多的抵押贷款，以至于到了 2003 年，几乎所有想要抵押贷款并且有资格获得抵押贷款的人都获得了抵押贷款。

But the pool of money had just gotten started.

但资金池才刚刚开始。

They wanted more mortgage-backed securities.

他们想要更多的抵押贷款支持证券。

So Wall Street had to find more people to take out mortgages, which meant lending to people who never would have qualified before.

因此，华尔街必须找到更多的人来办理抵押贷款，这意味着向以前从未有资格获得抵押贷款的人提供贷款。

And so Mike Garner in Nevada noticed that every month the guidelines were getting a little looser.

因此，内华达州的迈克·加纳注意到，指导方针每个月都在变得更加宽松。

Something called a stated income verified asset loan came out, which meant that people didn't have to provide a paycheck stub or W-2 form to get a loan as they had in the past.

所谓的“声明收入核实资产贷款”出现了，这意味着人们不必像过去那样提供工资存根或 W-2 表格来获得贷款。

They could simply state their income, as long as they showed that they had money in the bank.

他们可以简单地说明他们的收入，只要他们证明他们在银行有钱。

The next guideline lower is just stated income, stated assets.

下一个较低的指导方针是陈述收入、陈述资产。

That came out.

那出来了。

So then you basically state what you make, and then you state what's in your bank account.

所以你基本上会说明你赚了什么，然后你说明你的银行账户里有什么。

They call and make sure that you work where you say you work.

他们打电话来确保您在您所说的工作地点工作。

And then an accountant has to say that for your field, it is possible to make what you say you make.

然后会计师必须说，对于你的领域，你可以做到你说的那样。

But they don't have to-- they don't say what you make.

但他们没有必要——他们不会说你做了什么。

They just say, it's possible that he could make that.

他们只是说，他有可能做到这一点。

If you could stop there for one second, it's just so funny that instead of just asking the people to prove what they make, there is this sort of theater in place of like, you have to find an accountant to say, yes this person who is sitting right in front of me, and who could very easily provide a W-2 form-- but we're not asking for a W2 form-- but we do want this accountant to say that, yeah, that person, what they're saying is possible in some universe.

如果你能停在那里一秒钟，这真是太有趣了，而不是仅仅要求人们证明他们做了什么，有这样的剧院代替，你必须找到一个会计师说，是的，坐在我面前的这个人，他可以很容易地提供 W-2 表格 - 但我们不要求 W2 表格 - 但我们确实希望这个会计师说，是的，那个人，他们所说的在某些宇宙中是可能的。

And I mean, loan officers would have an accountant that they could call up and say, can you write a statement saying that a truck driver can make this much money, or whatever.

我的意思是，信贷员会有一名会计师，他们可以打电话给他说，你能写一份声明说卡车司机可以赚这么多钱，或者其他什么。

Then the next one came along.

然后下一个出现了。

And it was no income verified asset.

而且它不是经过收入验证的资产。

So you don't have to tell the people what you do for a living.

所以你不必告诉人们你以什么为生。

You don't have to tell the people what you do for work.

您不必告诉人们您的工作内容。

All you have to do is state that you have a certain amount of money in your bank account.

您所要做的就是声明您的银行帐户中有一定金额的资金。

And then the next one that came out is just no income no asset.

然后下一个出来的就是没有收入没有资产。

So you don't have to state anything.

所以你不必声明任何事情。

You just have to have a credit score and a pulse.

您只需要有信用评分和脉搏即可。

Actually that pulse thing, also optional, like this case in Ohio, where 23 dead people were approved for mortgages.

事实上，脉冲的事情，也是可选的，就像俄亥俄州的这个案例，那里有 23 名死者被批准抵押贷款。

An interesting fact here.

这里有一个有趣的事实。

Mike Garner's bank did not care all that much how risky these mortgages were.

迈克·加纳的银行并不太关心这些抵押贷款的风险有多大。

This was a new era.

这是一个新时代。

Banks did not have to hold on to these mortgages for 30 years like they used to.

银行不必像以前那样持有这些抵押贷款 30 年。

They didn't have to wait and see if they'd be paid back.

他们不必等待，看看是否能得到回报。

Banks like Garner's would just own the mortgages for a month or two.

像加纳银行这样的银行只会持有抵押贷款一两个月。

And then they sold them on to Wall Street.

然后他们把它们卖给了华尔街。

And then Wall Street would sell them on to the global pool of money.

然后华尔街会把它们卖给全球资金池。

Which is how we get half million dollar no income no asset loans.

这就是我们如何获得五十万美元的无收入无资产贷款。

--and loans to dead people.

——以及向死者提供贷款。

So there's this whole other thing going on as well.

所以还有其他事情正在发生。

Housing prices were rising fast.

房价快速上涨。

I think we all remember that.

我想我们都记得这一点。

Lots of people in the mortgage industry had this faith that housing prices in the US simply never go down.

Lots of people in the mortgage industry had this faith that housing prices in the US simply never go down.

So from the bank's perspective, even if the worst happens and someone defaults, the bank would then own a house, which is now worth even more than what they gave out in the loan.

因此，从银行的角度来看，即使最坏的情况发生，有人违约，银行也会拥有一套房子，现在它的价值甚至比他们发放的贷款还要多。

So all Mike cared about was whether or not his customers, the Wall Street investment banks, would buy those mortgages from him.

因此，迈克关心的只是他的客户，即华尔街投资银行，是否会从他那里购买这些抵押贷款。

And he was under pressure to approve more and more loans.

他面临着批准越来越多贷款的压力。

Because other guys in his company-- the actual guys cruising strip malls all across Nevada buying mortgages from brokers-- their commission depended on selling more loans.

因为他公司的其他人——实际上是在内华达州各地的商业街里从经纪人那里购买抵押贷款的人——他们的佣金取决于出售更多的贷款。

And occasionally those guys would hear about some loan that some other mortgage company offered that they weren't allowed to offer.

有时，这些人会听说其他一些抵押贷款公司提供了一些他们不被允许提供的贷款。

And they'd complain to Mike.

他们会向迈克抱怨。

Three of them would show up at your door first thing in the morning, and say, I lost 10 deals last week to Meritius Bank.

他们中的三个人早上第一件事就会出现在你家门口，并说，我上周输给了君华银行 10 笔交易。

And they've got this loan.

他们得到了这笔贷款。

Look at the guidelines for this loan.

查看该贷款的指导方针。

Is there any way we can do this, because we're losing deals left and right?

由于我们不断失去交易，有什么办法可以做到这一点吗？

Either they would find out who they were selling it to, or I'd get on the phone and start calling all these street firms or Countrywide and say, would you buy this loan?

要么他们会找出他们要把它卖给谁，要么我会打电话给所有这些街头公司或全国范围内的公司并说，你会购买这笔贷款吗？

And finally, you'd find out who's actually buying them and would say, yes.

最后，你会发现谁真正在购买它们，然后你会说，是的。

So like, Merrill Lynch would say no, and Goldman Sachs would say no, and then you'd finally hit on somebody, and they would be like, yeah, we'll buy that loan.

就像，美林会说不，高盛会说不，然后你终于找到了某人，他们会说，是的，我们会购买那笔贷款。

Yeah, and then once I got a hit, then I'd call the other people back and say, listen, Bear Stearns is buying this loan.

是的，一旦我受到打击，我就会给其他人回电话说，听着，贝尔斯登正在购买这笔贷款。

And I would like to give you the opportunity to buy these loans too.

And I would like to give you the opportunity to buy these loans too.

And once one person buys them, usually all the rest follow suit.

And once one person buys them, usually all the rest follow suit.

So, what were you thinking when you're turning around, and you're selling those to Wall Street?

那么，当你转身将这些产品卖给华尔街时，你在想什么？

Were you ever thinking to yourself like, what are you guys doing?

Were you ever thinking to yourself like, what are you guys doing?

Yeah, and my boss had been in the business for 25 years.

Yeah, and my boss had been in the business for 25 years.

And he hated those loans.

他讨厌那些贷款。

He hated them.

他讨厌他们。

And he used to rant and just say, it makes me sick to my stomach the kind of loans that we do.

And he used to rant and just say, it makes me sick to my stomach the kind of loans that we do.

And he fought the owners and the sales force, tooth and neck, about these guidelines.

And he fought the owners and the sales force, tooth and neck, about these guidelines.

And we got the same answer every time.

我们每次都得到相同的答案。

Nope.

没有。

Other people are offering it.

其他人正在提供它。

We're going to offer it too.

我们也将提供它。

We're going to get more market share this way.

我们将通过这种方式获得更多的市场份额。

House prices are booming.

房价正在蓬勃发展。

Everything's going to be good.

一切都会好起来的。

And the company was just rolling in the cash.

该公司刚刚开始现金流入。

I mean, the owners and the production staff were just raking it in.

我的意思是，业主和制作人员只是在捞钱。

At the height, I was making between $75,000 and $100,000 a month.

在巅峰时期，我每月的收入在 75,000 美元到 100,000 美元之间。

This is Glen Pizzolorusso, who was an area sales manager at an outfit called WMC Mortgage in upstate New York.

This is Glen Pizzolorusso, who was an area sales manager at an outfit called WMC Mortgage in upstate New York.

And just to repeat, he said $75,000 to a $100,000 a month.

And just to repeat, he said $75,000 to a $100,000 a month.

That's over a $1 million a year.

每年超过 100 万美元。

Glen was just out of college.

格伦刚刚大学毕业。

His job was a lot like Mike Garner's.

他的工作很像迈克·加纳的工作。

He's the same link in the chain.

他是链条中的同一个环节。

And Glen loved his job.

格伦热爱他的工作。

What was that movie, Boiler Room ?

《锅炉房》那部电影是什么？

Did you ever see that movie?

你看过那部电影吗？

That's what it was like.

事情就是这样。

I mean, it was the coolest thing ever.

我的意思是，这是有史以来最酷的事情。

Just cubicle, cubicle, cubicle for 150,000 square feet.

只是小隔间、小隔间、小隔间，面积达 150,000 平方英尺。

The ceilings were probably 25, 30 feet ceilings.

天花板大概有25、30英尺高。

The elevator had this big graffiti painting on it that was awesome.

The elevator had this big graffiti painting on it that was awesome.

A graffiti painting, meaning like, that had been there since before you guys moved in?

一幅涂鸦画，意思是说，在你们搬进来之前就已经在那里了？

So they had not done any amenities to this place?

那么他们没有给这个地方做任何便利设施吗？

No, it was just a big, open space.

不，那只是一个很大的空地。

And it was awesome.

太棒了。

We lived mortgage.

我们靠抵押贷款过日子。

That's what we did.

这就是我们所做的。

That's all we did.

这就是我们所做的一切。

All of us, we just lived it.

我们所有人，我们只是生活而已。

This deal, that deal, what's going on here?

这个交易，那个交易，这是怎么回事？

How are we going to get this one funded?

我们如何才能获得这一资金？

What's the problem with this one?

这个有什么问题吗？

I mean, you get there, and that's all everybody is talking about.

I mean, you get there, and that's all everybody is talking about.

And when Glenn wasn't working, he was doing his next favorite thing, spending, preferably, in the company of-- and this is his term-- B-list celebrities.

当格伦不工作时，他会做他最喜欢的下一件事情，最好是在——这是他的术语——二流名人的陪伴下花钱。

We would roll up to Marquee at midnight, with a line 500 people deep out front.

We would roll up to Marquee at midnight, with a line 500 people deep out front.

Walk right up to the door.

径直走到门口。

Give me my table.

把我的桌子给我。

We're sitting next to Tara Reid and a couple of her friends.

We're sitting next to Tara Reid and a couple of her friends.

Christina Aguilera was doing a-- whatever, I'm Christina Aguilera.

Christina Aguilera was doing a-- whatever, I'm Christina Aguilera.

I'm going to get up and sing.

我要站起来唱歌。

So Christina Aguilera and all her people are there.

So Christina Aguilera and all her people are there.

Who else was there?

还有谁在场？

Cuba Gooding and that kid from Filthy Rich: Cattle Drive.

库珀·古丁和《肮脏的富豪：赶牛》中的那个孩子。

What was that kid's name?

那孩子叫什么名字？

Fabian [?

法边[?

Barabia.

巴拉比亚。

?] We ordered, probably, three or four bottles of Cristal at $1,000 a bottle.

?] We ordered, probably, three or four bottles of Cristal at $1,000 a bottle.

They bring it out.

他们把它拿出来。

They are walking through the crowd.

他们正穿过人群。

They hold the bottles over their head.

他们把瓶子举过头顶。

There is fire crackers and sparklers.

有鞭炮和烟花。

The little cocktail waitresses, so you order four bottles of those, they're walking through the crowd of people.

小鸡尾酒女服务员，所以你点了四瓶，他们就穿过人群。

Everybody is like, whoa, who's the cool guys?

每个人都会说，哇，谁是最酷的人？

Well, we were the cool guys.

嗯，我们是很酷的人。

You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思？

They gave me a black card.

他们给了我一张黑卡。

This little card with my name on it.

这张小卡片上写着我的名字。

There's probably like 10 of them in existence.

大概有 10 个这样的存在。

And that meant that I just spent way too much money there.

这意味着我在那里花了太多钱。

Glen had five cars, a $1.5 million vacation house in Connecticut, and a penthouse that he rented in Manhattan.

格伦拥有五辆车，在康涅狄格州拥有一栋价值 150 万美元的度假屋，以及在曼哈顿租用的一套顶层公寓。

And he made all this money making very large loans to very poor people with bad credit.

他通过向信用不良的贫困人口发放巨额贷款赚到了所有这些钱。

We looked at loans, these people didn't have a pot to piss in.

我们看了贷款，这些人没有尿处。

I mean, they could barely make the car payment, and now we're giving them a $300,000 to $400,000 house.

我的意思是，他们几乎无力支付汽车费用，而现在我们给他们一套价值 30 万至 40 万美元的房子。

But Glen didn't worry about whether these loans were good either.

但格伦也不担心这些贷款是否良好。

That was someone else's problem.

那是别人的问题。

And this way of thinking thrived at every step of this mortgage security chain.

这种思维方式在抵押贷款安全链的每一步都蓬勃发展。

A guy like Mike Francis from Morgan Stanley, he told me he bought loans, lots of loans, from Glen's company.

摩根士丹利的迈克·弗朗西斯（Mike Francis）这样的人告诉我，他从格伦的公司购买了贷款，很多贷款。

And he knew in his gut that they were bad loans, like these NINA loans.

他凭直觉知道这些都是不良贷款，就像尼娜的这些贷款一样。

No income no asset loans, that's a liar's loan.

没有收入没有资产贷款，那是骗子贷款。

We are telling you to lie to us, effectively.

我们告诉你要有效地对我们撒谎。

I mean, we're hoping you don't lie, but-- tell us what you make.

我的意思是，我们希望你不要撒谎，但是——告诉我们你做了什么。

Tell us what you have in the bank.

告诉我们您银行里有什么。

But we're not going to actually verify it?

但我们不会实际验证它吗？

We're setting you up to lie.

我们正在让你撒谎。

Something about that transaction feels very wrong.

那笔交易让人感觉非常不对劲。

It felt very wrong way back when.

以前的感觉很不对劲。

And I wish we had never done it.

我希望我们从未这样做过。

Unfortunately what happened, we did it because everybody else was doing it.

不幸的是，我们这样做是因为其他人都在这样做。

It's easy to ignore your gut fear when you're making a fortune in commissions.

当你靠佣金赚大钱时，你很容易忽视内心的恐惧。

But Mike had other help in rationalizing what he was doing, technological help.

但迈克在合理化他正在做的事情方面还有其他帮助，即技术帮助。

Mike sat at a desk with six computer screens connected to millions of dollars worth of fancy analytic software designed by brilliant Ivy League graduates hired by his firm.

迈克坐在一张办公桌前，办公桌上有六台电脑屏幕，这些屏幕连接着价值数百万美元的精美分析软件，这些软件是由他的公司雇用的杰出常春藤盟校毕业生设计的。

And this software analyzed all the loans in all the pools that Mike bought and then sold.

该软件分析了迈克购买然后出售的所有池中的所有贷款。

And the software, the data, didn't seem worried at all.

而软件、数据似乎一点也不担心。

All the data that we had to review, to look at, on loans that were in production, that were years old, was positive.

我们必须审查、查看的所有关于正在生产的、已有多年的贷款的数据都是积极的。

They performed very well.

他们表现得很好。

All those factors, when you look at all the pieces and parts, and you say, well, a 90% no income loan three years ago is performing amazingly well.

所有这些因素，当你查看所有细节时，你会说，嗯，三年前 90% 的无收入贷款表现得非常好。

It has a little bit of risk.

它有一点风险。

Instead of defaulting 1 and 1/2% of the time, it defaults 3 and 1/2% of the time.

它不是默认 1 和 1/2% 的时间，而是默认 3 和 1/2% 的时间。

Well, that's not so bad.

嗯，那还不错。

If I'm an investor buying that, if I get a little bit of additional return, I'm fine.

如果我是一个投资者购买它，如果我能得到一点额外的回报，我就很好。

Wait, Alex, I want step in here, because this is a very important piece of tape.

等等，亚历克斯，我想介入这里，因为这是一段非常重要的磁带。

A big part of this whole story, the whole crisis, is that a lot of really smart people, people who knew better, fooled themselves with this data.

整个故事、整个危机的一个重要部分是，很多真正聪明的人，那些更了解的人，用这些数据欺骗了自己。

It was the triumph of data over common sense.

这是数据战胜常识的胜利。

Can you play that tape again?

你能再播放一下那盘磁带吗？

Yeah, sure.

是的，当然。

Here you go.

干得好。

Mike Francis All the data that we had to review, to look at, on loans that were in production, that were years old, was positive.

迈克·弗朗西斯（Mike Francis） 我们必须审查、查看的所有关于已生产的、已有多年的贷款的数据都是积极的。

As we now know, they were using the wrong data.

正如我们现在所知，他们使用了错误的数据。

They looked at the recent history of mortgages and saw that the foreclosure rate is generally below 2%.

他们研究了抵押贷款的近期历史，发现止赎率普遍低于 2%。

So they figured absolute worst-case scenario, the foreclosure rate might go to 8% or 10% or even 12%.

因此他们认为最坏的情况是，止赎率可能会达到 8%、10% 甚至 12%。

But the problem with that is that there were all these new kinds of mortgages given out to people who never would have gotten them before.

但问题在于，所有这些新型抵押贷款都发放给了以前从未获得过的人。

So the historical data was irrelevant.

所以历史数据是无关紧要的。

Some mortgage pools today are expected to go beyond 50% foreclosure rates.

目前一些抵押贷款池的止赎率预计将超过 50%。

To be fair, they knew there were risks.

公平地说，他们知道存在风险。

But investors have a system to assesses those risks.

但投资者有一个评估这些风险的系统。

They have the special companies, credit rating agencies, Moody's, Standard & Poor's, Fitch.

他们有专门的公司、信用评级机构、穆迪、标准普尔、惠誉。

Their job, their main job, is to assess risk for Wall Street and the global pool of money.

他们的工作，他们的主要工作，是评估华尔街和全球资金池的风险。

They rate every kind of bond according to its risk.

他们根据风险对每种债券进行评级。

AAA is the safest.

AAA是最安全的。

Then there is AA, A, all the way down to B and below.

然后是AA、A，一直到B以下。

And that's all most investors look at that, that letter grade.

这就是大多数投资者所关注的，即字母等级。

They trust the credit rating agencies.

他们信任信用评级机构。

And these agencies blessed most of these mortgage-backed securities, gave them AAA ratings, which means they were considered as safe as a US government bond.

这些机构对大多数抵押贷款支持证券给予了 AAA 评级，这意味着它们被认为与美国政府债券一样安全。

This was the magic of the whole system.

这就是整个系统的魔力。

You could take a pool of thousands of risky mortgages and create a security that was called, money good, as safe as any investment out there.

你可以拿数千笔有风险的抵押贷款来创建一种被称为“金钱好”的证券，与任何投资一样安全。

At least that's what people thought.

至少人们是这么认为的。

We now know that those agencies relied on the wrong data, that same historic data that had nothing to do with these new kinds of mortgages.

我们现在知道，这些机构依赖于错误的数据，这些历史数据与这些新型抵押贷款无关。

And then, things got even worse.

然后，事情变得更糟。

The thing that took this problem and turned it into a crisis was something else that was new, something called a collateralized debt obligation, a CDO.

把这个问题变成危机的是另一种新事物，称为债务抵押债券（CDO）。

And that brings us back to the guy we met at the awards dinner in the beginning, Jim Finkel.

这让我们回到了我们一开始在颁奖晚宴上遇到的那个人，吉姆·芬克尔。

Well, we're heading to the trading floor of Dynamic Credit, where we have all of our mortgage and CDO analysts, our head trader, our CIO--

好吧，我们正在前往 Dynamic Credit 的交易大厅，那里有我们所有的抵押贷款和 CDO 分析师、我们的首席交易员、我们的 CIO——

Jim Finkel runs this CDO shop, Dynamic Credit.

Jim Finkel 经营着这家 CDO 商店 Dynamic Credit。

It takes up three modified apartments on the Upper East Side of Manhattan.

它占据了曼哈顿上东区的三间经过改造的公寓。

The trading room is like a factory floor for CDOs.

交易室就像 CDO 的工厂车间。

It's where they make the things.

这是他们制造东西的地方。

This is what it sounds like.

听起来就是这样。

[SILENCE]

[沉默]

Maybe factory is the wrong term.

也许“工厂”这个词用得不对。

But this is where he makes CDOs.

但这就是他制作 CDO 的地方。

But what is a CDO?

但什么是 CDO？

He shows us on a computer screen.

他在电脑屏幕上向我们展示。

I'm going to show you-- here's our deal, Monterey.

我要告诉你——这是我们的协议，蒙特雷。

To start with, every CDO has its own name.

首先，每个 CDO 都有自己的名字。

Finkel loves his country house in the Berkshires, so he always names CDOs after towns in western Mass, like Monterey.

芬克尔喜欢他在伯克郡的乡间别墅，因此他总是以马萨诸塞州西部的城镇命名 CDO，比如蒙特利。

Monterey CDO Limited, we had a 189 assets in Monterey.

蒙特利 CDO 有限公司，我们在蒙特利拥有 189 项资产。

So that's 189 pools?

那么这是 189 个池吗？

Jim Finkel --189 tranches of different mortgage-backed pools.

Jim Finkel——189 批不同的抵押贷款支持池。

Let's translate some of that.

我们来翻译一下其中的一些内容。

A mortgage-backed security, you remember, is a pool of thousands of different mortgages.

您还记得吗，抵押贷款支持证券是由数千种不同抵押贷款组成的池。

These are all put together and divided into different slices.

这些都放在一起并分成不同的切片。

Jim used the word tranche.

吉姆使用了“批次”这个词。

Tranche is just French for slice.

Tranche 是法语中“切片”的意思。

Some of these slices are risky and some are not.

其中一些切片有风险，有些则没有风险。

OK, a CDO is a pool of these tranches, a pool of pools.

好的，CDO 是这些部分的一个池，一个池的池。

And Jim and most companies like his weren't buying the top rated tranches, the safest ones, the AAAs.

吉姆和大多数像他这样的公司并没有购买评级最高的、最安全的、AAA 级的股票。

They were buying the lower rated stuff, the high risk stuff.

他们购买的是评级较低的东西、高风险的东西。

Jim's company bought tranches that came from Glen Pizzolorusso's company, the guy who hung out at nightclubs with B-list celebrities, the guy who said he was selling mortgages to people who didn't have a pot to piss in.

吉姆的公司购买了来自格伦·皮佐洛鲁索公司的部分资金，格伦·皮佐洛鲁索的公司经常和二流名人一起去夜总会，他说他正在向那些没有钱的人出售抵押贷款。

There is another term the industry uses.

业界还使用另一个术语。

This is not a joke.

这不是玩笑。

They call these lower rated tranches, toxic waste.

他们将这些评级较低的部分称为有毒废物。

They are so high risk, they're toxic.

它们的风险非常高，而且有毒。

So basically Adam, a CDO is sort of a financial alchemy, right?

Adam 基本上认为 CDO 是一种金融炼金术，对吗？

Jim takes this toxic stuff, these low-rated high-risk tranches, puts them all together, re-tranches them, and presto.

吉姆把这些有毒的东西，这些低评级的高风险部分，把它们放在一起，重新划分，然后就这样了。

He has a CDO whose top tranche is rated AAA, rock solid, good as money.

他拥有一只 CDO，其顶级评级为 AAA，坚如磐石，物有所值。

If this seems too good to be true to you, you're in good company.

如果这对你来说好得令人难以置信，那么你的同伴就很好了。

Guys like billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the very logic was ridiculous.

像亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特这样的人表示，这种逻辑非常荒谬。

But back in 2005, 2006, the global pool of money, they couldn't get enough of these things.

但早在2005年、2006年，全球资金池里，他们就无法获得足够的这些东西。

And the CDO industry was facing the same pressures everyone else was at every other step of this chain, to loosen their standards, to make CDOs out of lower and lower rated tranches.

CDO 行业面临着与其他人在该链条的每个其他步骤相同的压力，放松他们的标准，使 CDO 的评级越来越低。

This is Jim's partner, Tonko Gast.

这是吉姆的搭档，托科·加斯特。

Actually, in 2005 already, we had an internal debate here, because there were two banks coming to us saying, why don't you do a deal with us, BBB securities, and you get paid $1 million in management fees per year?

其实早在2005年，我们就在这里进行过一次内部辩论，因为有两家银行来找我们说，你们为什么不和我们BBB证券做一笔交易，然后每年给你们100万美元的管理费？

Very clear, just like that, in 2005.

非常清楚，就像2005年那样。

And we declined those deals.

我们拒绝了这些交易。

We said that we just don't believe that those BBB RMBS assets are money-good.

我们说过，我们只是不相信那些 BBB RMBS 资产是赚钱的。

We don't think they are well underwritten.

我们认为它们没有得到很好的承保。

And we think if we do a CDO of those, that's going to blow up completely.

我们认为，如果我们对这些产品进行 CDO，那将会彻底失败。

We were a little early in '05 by not wanting to do those deals.

05 年我们有点早了，不想做这些交易。

And people were laughing at us, to be honest, to say, well, you're crazy.

And people were laughing at us, to be honest, to say, well, you're crazy.

You're hurting your business.

你正在损害你的生意。

Why don't you want to make-- per deal, you could make $1 million a year.

你为什么不想——每笔交易你每年可以赚 100 万美元。

Did someone do that deal?

有人做过那笔交易吗？

Tonko Gast Absolutely.

汤科·加斯特 绝对。

Everybody.

大家。

Not everybody, but a lot of people did.

不是每个人，但很多人都这么做了。

Coming up, how $5 million can get you into $100 million worth of trouble.

接下来，500 万美元如何让您陷入价值 1 亿美元的麻烦。

In a minute, from Chicago Public Radio and Public Radio International when our program continues.

稍后，芝加哥公共广播电台和国际公共广播电台将继续我们的节目。

[MUSIC - "HARD TIMES" THE SEX-O-RAMA SOUNDTRACK]

[音乐 - “困难时期”SEX-O-RAMA 原声带]

Well, it's This American Life .

嗯，这就是《美国生活》。

I'm Ira Glass.

我是艾拉·格拉斯。

And although I feel fine, I have lost my voice this week.

虽然我感觉很好，但这周我失去了声音。

Today's show, a special co-production with NPR News, a step-by-step look at what exactly happened during the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

今天的节目是与 NPR 新闻联合制作的特别节目，一步步回顾次贷危机期间到底发生了什么。

One of our producers, Alex Blumberg, co-reported this story with NPR reporter Adam Davidson.

我们的制片人之一亚历克斯·布隆伯格 (Alex Blumberg) 与 NPR 记者亚当·戴维森 (Adam Davidson) 共同报道了这个故事。

The story continues.

故事还在继续。

From 2003 to 2006, the housing market was in a classic speculative bubble.

From 2003 to 2006, the housing market was in a classic speculative bubble.

Home loans were easy to get.

住房贷款很容易获得。

So more and more people were buying houses.

于是越来越多的人买房。

The increased demand for houses caused the prices to increase.

对房屋的需求增加导致价格上涨。

And the rising prices created even more demand, as people started to look at homes as investments, investments that never went down in value.

价格上涨创造了更多的需求，因为人们开始将房屋视为投资，一种永不贬值的投资。

And in 2003, 2004, 2005 they didn't.

2003年、2004年、2005年他们没有。

You could buy a house with no money down, turn around and sell it a year later for-- in some areas-- double what you paid.

你可以不用首付就买一套房子，一年后把它卖掉——在某些地区——价格是你所付钱的两倍。

People who had never invested in real estate before started buying multiple properties as investments.

以前从未投资过房地产的人们开始购买多处房产作为投资。

There were even shows on TV about how to do it.

电视上甚至有节目介绍如何做到这一点。

Here's a promo.

这是一个促销活动。

Get ready for an all new season of Flip This House .

准备好迎接全新一季的“翻转这个房子”吧。

This is A&E's Flip This House .

这是 A&E 的 Flip This House。

Discovery had the cleverly titled, Flip That House .

Discovery 的标题很巧妙，“Flip That House”。

There were other ones-- Property Ladder , Designed to Sell .

There were other ones-- Property Ladder , Designed to Sell .

Bravo came late to the game, debuting their show, Flipping Out , in November of 2007, well after the bubble had already popped.

Bravo 姗姗来迟，于 2007 年 11 月首次推出他们的节目《Flipping Out》，当时泡沫已经破裂。

Those white boys from New Haven, going to flip that kitchen.

那些来自纽黑文的白人男孩，要颠覆那个厨房。

Flip This House premieres Saturday, March 31 at 9:00 on A&E.

《Flip This House》将于 3 月 31 日星期六 9:00 在 A&E 首播。

The problem was that even though housing prices were going through the roof, people weren't making any more money.

The problem was that even though housing prices were going through the roof, people weren't making any more money.

From 2000 to 2007 the median household income stayed flat.

从2000年到2007年，家庭收入中位数保持不变。

And so the more prices rose, the more tenuous the whole thing became.

因此，价格上涨得越多，整个事情就变得越脆弱。

No matter how lax lending standards got, no matter how many exotic mortgage products were created to shoehorn people into homes they couldn't possibly afford, no matter what the mortgage machine tried, the people just couldn't swing it.

无论贷款标准变得多么宽松，无论创造了多少奇特的抵押贷款产品来硬塞人们买不起他们买不起的房子，无论抵押贷款机器尝试了什么，人们就是无法动摇它。

By late 2006, the average home cost nearly four times what the average family made.

到 2006 年底，平均住房成本几乎是普通家庭收入的四倍。

Historically it was between two and three times.

历史上有两到三次。

And mortgage lenders started to notice something they had almost never seen before.

抵押贷款机构开始注意到一些他们以前几乎从未见过的事情。

People would close on a house, sign all the papers, and then default on their very first payment.

People would close on a house, sign all the papers, and then default on their very first payment.

No loss of a job, no medical emergency, they were under water before they even started.

没有失业，没有医疗紧急情况，他们甚至在开始之前就被淹没了。

And although no one could really hear it, that was probably the moment when one of the biggest speculative bubbles in American history popped.

尽管没有人能真正听到，但这可能是美国历史上最大的投机泡沫之一破灭的时刻。

Strangely, the first people in the mortgage-backed security chain who noticed were the ones near the top, the people on Wall Street like Mike Francis.

奇怪的是，抵押贷款支持证券链中最先注意到的人是那些接近顶端的人，即像迈克·弗朗西斯这样的华尔街人士。

He can remember almost to the day.

他几乎到现在还记得。

It would be somewhere around Halloween of 2006.

大概是 2006 年万圣节前后的某个时间。

We started seeing our securities that were even six, seven, eight months old start to perform very, very poorly.

我们开始看到我们的证券即使只有六个月、七个、八个月的时间也开始表现非常非常糟糕。

We started to really dig into the details to figure out what was going on.

We started to really dig into the details to figure out what was going on.

And then you start seeing, wow, the property values have stopped increasing.

And then you start seeing, wow, the property values have stopped increasing.

Something is really turning around bad here.

这里确实有些事情正在变得糟糕。

What do we do?

我们该怎么办？

The problem was that once property values started going down, it set off a reverse chain reaction, the opposite of what had been happening in the bubble.

问题在于，一旦房地产价值开始下跌，就会引发反向链式反应，与泡沫时期发生的情况相反。

As more people defaulted, more houses came on the market.

As more people defaulted, more houses came on the market.

With no buyers, prices went even further down.

由于没有买家，价格进一步下跌。

And as prices declined, Mike Francis cleared up a mystery.

随着价格下跌，迈克·弗朗西斯解开了一个谜团。

Remember, even though he didn't trust these NINA loans, the bonds he turned them into, they performed well.

请记住，尽管他不信任这些 NINA 贷款，但他将其转换成的债券表现良好。

Well, there was a reason.

嗯，这是有原因的。

It's obvious that they performed well, now, because their property kept increasing in value.

很明显，他们现在表现得很好，因为他们的财产不断增值。

And over time, they could continue to take cash out of it, if they needed to, to pay the bill.

随着时间的推移，如果需要的话，他们可以继续从中提取现金来支付账单。

In other words, they could take out another loan from the bank, against the value of their house, which because of the bubble was now worth more than they bought it for.

换句话说，他们可以根据自己房子的价值从银行再申请一笔贷款，由于泡沫，现在房子的价值比他们购买时的价值还要高。

These loans, called home equity lines of credit, became very popular in the early to mid 2000s partly because they were easy to get, but partly because people needed them to continue making their original mortgage payments.

这些贷款被称为房屋净值信贷额度，在 2000 年代初期到中期变得非常流行，部分原因是它们很容易获得，部分原因是人们需要它们继续支付原来的抵押贷款。

To pay off their debts, they went into more debt.

To pay off their debts, they went into more debt.

And in late 2006 early 2007-- as prices began their plunge and alarm was spreading across mortgage-backed securities desks all over Wall Street-- the people on Wall Street, like Mike Francis, started backing away from some of the riskiest mortgages that they would accept.

2006 年末 2007 年初，随着价格开始暴跌，整个华尔街的抵押贷款支持证券部门都开始恐慌，像迈克·弗朗西斯这样的华尔街人士开始放弃他们愿意接受的一些风险最高的抵押贷款。

Which had a devastating effect on the mortgage companies, which had proliferated to sell them loans, a devastating effect on people like Mike Garner, the mortgage banker in Nevada, for one simple reason.

这对抵押贷款公司产生了毁灭性影响，这些公司纷纷向他们出售贷款，这对像内华达州抵押贷款银行家迈克·加纳这样的人造成了毁灭性影响，原因很简单。

(SUBJECT) MIKE GARNER: All these mid-size companies like us, we're not using our own money to fund these loans.

(SUBJECT) MIKE GARNER: All these mid-size companies like us, we're not using our own money to fund these loans.

The way it worked was that a small bank, like Silver State Mortgage where Mike Garner worked, would borrow money from a big bank, say Citibank or Washington Mutual.

它的运作方式是，像迈克·加纳工作的银州抵押贷款银行这样的小银行会从花旗银行或华盛顿互惠银行等大银行借钱。

Silver State would use this borrowed money to buy up a bunch of loans and then pay back the big bank once it sold the loans to Wall Street.

Silver State would use this borrowed money to buy up a bunch of loans and then pay back the big bank once it sold the loans to Wall Street.

Now these smaller banks were highly leveraged, in most cases 20:1.

Now these smaller banks were highly leveraged, in most cases 20:1.

Meaning in Silver State's case, even though it had, say, only $5 million of its own dollars, it could borrow 20 times that, $100 million, to buy loans with.

这意味着，在 Silver State 的案例中，即使它只有 500 万美元的自有资金，它也可以借到 20 倍的资金，即 1 亿美元来购买贷款。

So in late 2006, Mike is busily at it-- borrowing, buying, selling, paying back, and borrowing again-- when the emails started coming.

So in late 2006, Mike is busily at it-- borrowing, buying, selling, paying back, and borrowing again-- when the emails started coming.

We get an email from a street firm-- I don't know, just say Credit Suisse First Boston.

We get an email from a street firm-- I don't know, just say Credit Suisse First Boston.

It says, as of-- whatever date-- December 29, we are no longer buying a stated income loan with a FICO less than whatever.

它说，从 12 月 29 日起（无论哪一天），我们将不再购买 FICO 低于任何金额的规定收入贷款。

And the email would say, there will be no exceptions.

电子邮件会说，不会有例外。

Please do not call the pricing desk to make any exceptions for this for this, or whatever.

Please do not call the pricing desk to make any exceptions for this for this, or whatever.

So you just start flipping out, and say, wait a second.

所以你开始发脾气，说，等一下。

You can't just say that you're not going to buy this with no notice.

您不能在没有通知的情况下就说您不会购买此产品。

Well, we're saying it.

嗯，我们就是这么说的。

And there is no notice.

并且没有任何通知。

So, then you start to scramble and get the stuff out the door as soon as you can.

So, then you start to scramble and get the stuff out the door as soon as you can.

Because you've already been assembling a bunch of those loans with those characteristics in play somewhere, right?

因为你已经在某个地方组装了一堆具有这些特征的贷款，对吗？

Yeah, you've got $20 million, or whatever the number is, sitting there.

是的，你有 2000 万美元，或者无论是多少，都坐在那里。

And you say, oh crap.

你说，哦，糟糕。

Well, I had better get those out the door, because within a week of when one street firm says we're not going to buy these loans, you can pretty much expect to see the same email from all them.

好吧，我最好把它们扔出去，因为在一家街头公司表示我们不会购买这些贷款的一周内，你几乎可以期望看到他们发来的同样的电子邮件。

A lot of times you'll get it from two others the same day.

很多时候你会在同一天从另外两个人那里得到它。

So you're scrambling to sell them.

所以你就争先恐后地卖掉它们。

And you're just going off sheer relationships you have with these guys.

而你只是与这些人断绝了关系。

Like, OK, I've still got $10 million of these.

就像，好吧，我还有 1000 万美元。

I know you're not buying them anymore, but you've got to.

我知道你不会再买了，但你必须买。

Come on, you can't just leave me like this.

来吧，你不能就这样离开我。

But there comes a point where-- well, there came a point where, basically, all of them just said, we're not buying anything.

但到了某个点——好吧，到了某个点，基本上，所有人都说，我们不会买任何东西。

For Mike and his company that meant that they'd borrowed tens of millions of dollars to buy loans that now they couldn't sell.

对于迈克和他的公司来说，这意味着他们借了数千万美元来购买现在无法出售的贷款。

And since they had very little of their own money-- just like the home buyers whose mortgages they purchased-- they had no choice but to default on their loan.

由于他们自己的钱很少——就像购买抵押贷款的购房者一样——他们别无选择，只能拖欠贷款。

Silver State Mortgage's nearly 600 employees were out of work quite suddenly.

Silver State Mortgage 的近 600 名员工突然失业。

It was February 14.

那是 2 月 14 日。

The email went out and said, Silver State Mortgage might be going out of business, but-- It was something along these lines-- might be going out of business, but we think we can work something out.

这封电子邮件说，银州抵押贷款公司可能会倒闭，但是——事情是这样的——可能会倒闭，但我们认为我们可以解决一些问题。

So we would encourage you to please come in and work tomorrow, and give us one more day to see if we can work something out.

因此，我们鼓励您明天来工作，再给我们一天的时间，看看我们是否可以解决问题。

And the next day people came in.

第二天，人们进来了。

And the email went out and said, unfortunately, we were not able to work anything out.

电子邮件发出后说，不幸的是，我们无法解决任何问题。

So Silver State Mortgage will be closing our doors today.

因此，Silver State Mortgage 今天将关门。

And that's how most of these lenders go under.

大多数贷款机构就是这样破产的。

Everybody was working, thinking everything's great, chugging along.

每个人都在工作，认为一切都很棒，一路顺风顺水。

And all of a sudden, the bank says, you're done.

突然之间，银行说，你就完了。

Then people starting grabbing their computers and their copy machines and rolling them out of the building.

然后人们开始拿起他们的电脑和复印机并将它们滚出大楼。

It was a mess.

真是一团糟。

My thoughts were like, holy crap.

我的想法就像，天哪。

Everybody's just stealing all their stuff.

每个人都在偷他们所有的东西。

That happened on February 14?

那是2月14日发生的事吗？

Mike Garner Yep.

迈克·加纳 是的。

My boss calls it the Valentine's Day Massacre.

我的老板称之为情人节大屠杀。

For Glen Pizzolorusso, the mortgage sales manager who-- not to dwell on this detail-- was living the life of a B-list celebrity, the end came a little more slowly.

对于抵押贷款销售经理格伦·皮佐罗鲁索（Glen Pizzolorusso）来说，他的结局来得慢了一些——这里不再赘述这个细节——过着二线名人的生活。

So you're at WMC.

所以你在 WMC。

What was the turning point?

转折点是什么？

I mean this sounds obscene, but I think it was the first month I got a $25,000 paycheck.

我的意思是，这听起来很淫秽，但我认为这是我拿到 25,000 美元薪水的第一个月。

And at this time, that didn't cover my expenses.

而此时，这还不足以支付我的开支。

So you're sitting here, and you're like, I just made $25,000 this month, which is more than most people make in six months, and it doesn't even cover my expenses.

所以你坐在这里，你会想，我这个月刚赚了 25,000 美元，这比大多数人六个月的收入还要多，而且还不够我的开支。

Now what do I do?

现在我该怎么办？

And then the next couple months I made like $30,000 or $40,000.

接下来的几个月我赚了大约 30,000 或 40,000 美元。

And then it went down to $10,000.

然后它就降到了 10,000 美元。

You could just feel it winding down.

你可以感觉到它逐渐减弱。

You knew the good old days were over.

你知道过去的美好时光已经结束了。

And it was scary.

这很可怕。

So give me your situation now.

那么现在就告诉我你的情况吧。

Like, can you pay all your bills now?

比如，你现在可以支付所有账单吗？

Not really.

并不真地。

I borrowed some money from some friends-- well, not-- from my dad.

我从一些朋友那里借了一些钱——好吧，不是——从我父亲那里借的。

Borrowed some money from Dad.

跟爸爸借了一些钱。

I'm living in my house right now.

我现在住在我的房子里。

We're working with the bank to try to avoid foreclosure.

我们正在与银行合作，尽量避免丧失抵押品赎回权。

At this point, I'm dealing with an attorney.

目前，我正在与一位律师打交道。

I'm trying to figure out if it makes sense for me to just walk away from the house.

我想弄清楚我离开家是否有意义。

And have you been making mortgage payments or not?

您是否已经支付抵押贷款？

No. Alex Blumberg When was the last time you made a mortgage payment?

否。 Alex Blumberg 您最后一次支付抵押贷款是什么时候？

January, maybe.

一月，也许吧。

And I've been just making them spotty, as I can, just enough to keep them off my back.

我尽我所能，让它们变得参差不齐，足以让它们远离我的困扰。

I mean, I have to watch every penny right now.

我的意思是，我现在必须看好每一分钱。

As you can see, this is my living room.

正如你所看到的，这是我的客厅。

I have no furniture in there, because, like I said, it's either buy furniture or pay my mortgage.

我那里没有家具，因为，就像我说的，要么买家具，要么支付抵押贷款。

This brings us back to Richard, the marine we met at the very top of the show.

这让我们回到了理查德，我们在节目最顶端遇到的海军陆战队员。

He, like more than 4 million Americans at this point, is fighting to keep his home.

他和目前超过 400 万的美国人一样，正在为保住自己的家而奋斗。

He's giving me a tour.

他正在带我参观。

And I wanted to talk to him about, what now?

我想和他谈谈，现在怎么办？

What happens next, now that the housing bubble has turned into a crisis?

既然房地产泡沫已经演变成一场危机，接下来会发生什么？

If he defaults on his mortgage, nobody wins.

如果他拖欠抵押贷款，没有人会获胜。

He doesn't want to leave his house.

他不想离开他的家。

The investors who own his mortgage, the last thing they want is to own a house in east Flatbush in a declining market with no buyers.

拥有抵押贷款的投资者最不想看到的就是在市场下滑、没有买家的情况下在弗拉特布什东部拥有一套房子。

So you think it would be easy for both sides to come together and modify Richard's mortgage, figure out something he can afford.

所以你认为双方很容易走到一起修改理查德的抵押贷款，找出他能负担得起的东西。

You'd be wrong.

你就错了。

Kerry Campbell, nice to meet you.

凯瑞·坎贝尔，很高兴认识你。

Good, how you doing sir?

很好，先生，你好吗？

The offices of NACA, the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America in Newark, New Jersey are short on frills.

NACA（美国邻里援助公司）位于新泽西州纽瓦克的办公室缺乏装饰。

Kerry Campbell, who's helping Richard today, is a counselor here.

今天帮助理查德的克里·坎贝尔是这里的辅导员。

The goal today is to figure out how big a mortgage payment Richard can actually afford to pay.

今天的目标是弄清楚理查德实际上可以支付多少抵押贷款。

So Kerry needs to know everything Richard spends money on.

所以克里需要知道理查德花钱的一切。

They go through his medical bills, his clothing budget.

他们检查他的医疗费用和服装预算。

Kerry gently nudges Richard to be realistic, like when he asks Richard how much he spends on gifts for his family.

克里轻轻地劝理查德要现实一点，就像他问理查德花了多少钱给家人买礼物一样。

Gifts for family, how much would you say on average?

给家人的礼物，你觉得平均要多少钱？

$300 at Christmas time.

圣诞节时300美元。

Kerry Campbell January, February-- January through December, Mother's day, Father's day, sisters, brothers, nephews, nieces, significant other, kid's birthday, if you celebrate Christmas-- whole enchilada.

克里·坎贝尔 一月、二月——一月到十二月、母亲节、父亲节、姐妹节、兄弟节、侄子节、侄女节、重要的其他人、孩子的生日，如果你庆祝圣诞节——整个辣酱玉米饼馅。

Let's say $1,000.

假设是 1,000 美元。

Kerry Campbell That sounds about right.

凯瑞·坎贝尔 听起来不错。

The process we're doing right now, how does this compare to when you bought the house?

我们现在正在进行的流程，与您买房时相比如何？

This is totally different.

这是完全不同的。

It's brand new to me.

这对我来说是全新的。

But when I bought my house it was just your credit score and can I pull a credit report?

但是当我买房子时，这只是你的信用评分，我可以提取信用报告吗？

So in this whole process, what's the first time someone looked at your finances?

那么在整个过程中，第一次有人查看你的财务状况是什么时候？

Today.

今天。

Today.

今天。

Adam Davidson Not to say the original broker didn't have a process.

Adam Davidson 并不是说​​原来的经纪人没有流程。

It just had nothing to do with reality.

它只是与现实无关。

Kerry shows Richard the loan documents filled out when he bought the house by his original broker.

克里向理查德展示了他原来的经纪人购买房子时填写的贷款文件。

Here it's saying your base employment income was $16,250 a month.

此处表示您的基本就业收入为每月 16,250 美元。

What?

什么？

Kerry Campbell $16,250 a month, which means your salary on a yearly basis would be making-- you're making just under $200,000, $195,000 to be exact.

Kerry Campbell 每月 16,250 美元，这意味着你的年薪将接近 200,000 美元，确切地说是 195,000 美元。

I wish.

我希望。

In 2005-- and they used my 2005 taxes-- I was making $37,000 a year.

2005 年——他们使用了我 2005 年的税款——我的年收入为 37,000 美元。

No. Adam Davidson So he stated $16,000 a month.

没有。 Adam Davidson 所以他说每月 16,000 美元。

To me, that is shocking.

对我来说，这令人震惊。

To you, it's not that shocking?

对你来说，这不是那么令人震惊吗？

Oh, that's outrageous.

哦，这太离谱了。

But it's a common thing.

但这是很常见的事情。

There's worlds apart from the reality and what's on a lot of these documents.

这与现实以及许多这些文件中的内容有天壤之别。

Another thing the papers reveal, how much that creative broker made, $18,500.

报纸透露的另一件事是，这位创意经纪人赚了多少钱，18,500 美元。

As Kerry says, that's 18,000 reasons to falsify Richards mortgage documents and to put him in a house he can't afford.

正如克里所说，这是伪造理查兹抵押贷款文件并让他住进他买不起的房子的 18,000 个理由。

Richard actually qualified for a Veterans Administration Loan at a really good rate.

理查德实际上有资格以非常优惠的利率获得退伍军人管理局贷款。

And he had money to put down.

而且他有钱可以放下。

But the broker convinced him to take a mortgage that turned out to be much worse, but did have a much higher commission.

但经纪人说服他接受抵押贷款，结果证明情况更糟，但佣金却高得多。

Mortgage brokers were walking around east Flatbush knocking on doors, telling just about anybody, hey, we can get you a house.

抵押贷款经纪人在弗拉特布什东部走来走去，敲门，告诉任何人，嘿，我们可以给你买房子。

If you have a house, we can get you a big home equity line of credit.

如果您有房子，我们可以为您提供大额房屋净值信贷额度。

This happened in poor neighborhoods all over the country.

这种事发生在全国各地的贫困社区。

And while the FBI and other law enforcement folks say they don't have the exact numbers, it's clear that fraud, like that fraud on Richard's application, was ubiquitous.

尽管联邦调查局和其他执法人员表示他们没有确切的数字，但很明显，欺诈行为（例如理查德申请中的欺诈行为）无处不在。

At the end of Richard's budget process, the math they come up with is fairly stark.

在理查德的预算过程结束时，他们得出的数学结果相当明显。

Richard makes more money now.

理查德现在赚更多的钱了。

He got a new and better job.

他找到了一份更好的新工作。

So he makes an average, before taxes, of $8,000 a month.

因此，他的税前平均每月收入为 8,000 美元。

Which means after taxes he brings home exactly enough to pay his mortgage and nothing else.

这意味着税后他带回家的钱正好够支付抵押贷款，除此之外别无其他。

All of his living expenses he says, are paid with money he gets from his mom, who is on public assistance, his girlfriend, and his brother.

他说，他所有的生活费用都是由他靠公共援助的母亲、女友和兄弟那里得到的钱支付的。

Kerry runs the software, which says that if Richard is going to stay in his house, he needs a much cheaper mortgage.

克里运行的软件显示，如果理查德要留在他的房子里，他需要更便宜的抵押贷款。

The interest, which is currently at around 10%, would have to be lowered a lot, to 3%.

目前利率约为 10%，必须大幅降低至 3%。

Kerry wants to propose this to whoever owns the loan, but this brings him to this peculiar problem mortgage owners face now.

克里想向拥有贷款的任何人提出这一建议，但这让他遇到了抵押贷款所有者现在面临的特殊问题。

They have no idea who that is.

他们不知道那是谁。

Richard's loan has been bought, and sold, and resold, and put into one of those pools owned by investors, maybe an investor like Jim Finkel.

理查德的贷款被购买、出售、转售，然后放入投资者拥有的资金池之一，也许是像吉姆·芬克尔这样的投资者。

150 times was it 3,000-- let's be conservative?

150 倍是 3,000——保守一点吧？

So, now we're back in Jim Finkel's office.

现在我们回到吉姆·芬克尔的办公室。

He is surrounded by very expensive computers, but he's typing on a cheap calculator.

他周围都是非常昂贵的电脑，但他却在廉价的计算器上打字。

And he's trying to figure out for us how many individual mortgages, how many homes like Richard's, does he and his company own a part of.

他正试图为我们弄清楚他和他的公司拥有多少个人抵押贷款，多少像理查德这样的房屋。

The calculator method soon fails him, and he turns to one of his number crunchers, a guy named Alex.

计算器方法很快就让他失败了，他求助于他的一位数字运算者，一个名叫亚历克斯的人。

I can't even imagine-- Alex, do you have any idea?

我什至无法想象——亚历克斯，你有什么想法吗？

Alex gets on the phone with Steve, the IT guy.

亚历克斯与 IT 人员史蒂夫通电话。

How many loans are you running in loan performance, altogether?

从贷款绩效来看，您总共运行了多少笔贷款？

For all of our deals, how many loans, individual mortgage loans?

对于我们所有的交易，有多少贷款、个人抵押贷款？

16 million loans?

1600万贷款？

This one CDO factory, this one office, owns a share of 16 million homes.

这一家 CDO 工厂，这一间办公室，拥有 1600 万套住宅。

And each of these homes has lots of other owners, people in other CDO offices around the world-- there are lots of them-- and other investors.

这些房屋中的每一个都有许多其他业主、世界各地其他 CDO 办公室的人员（人数很多）以及其他投资者。

You start to see what a crazy web of confusing interconnections this whole process is.

你开始看到整个过程是一个多么疯狂的、令人困惑的互连网络。

Now until this moment, we had a theory that the homeowners and the people on the other end, the people at the top of the chain--

直到这一刻，我们有一个理论，房主和另一端的人们，链条顶端的人们——

The investors-- Alex Blumberg The investors like Jim Finkel--

投资者——亚历克斯·布隆伯格（Alex Blumberg） 像吉姆·芬克尔（Jim Finkel）这样的投资者——

Right, but we actually learned that they know quite a lot about each other.

是的，但我们实际上了解到他们彼此了解很多。

They just see each other through a computer screen.

他们只是通过电脑屏幕看到对方。

Hey, Steve.

嘿，史蒂夫。

Steve Pennington Hey, what's going on?

史蒂夫·彭宁顿 嘿，发生什么事了？

We find that out when we go downstairs to see Steve Pennington, the IT guy.

当我们下楼去见 IT 人员 Steve Pennington 时，我们发现了这一点。

Steve's actual title is head of financial engineering.

史蒂夫的实际头衔是金融工程主管。

He's created his own software program that actually looks at every one of the 16 million loans Dynamic owns part of.

他创建了自己的软件程序，实际上可以查看 Dynamic 拥有的 1600 万笔贷款中的每一笔。

It's a spreadsheet.

这是一个电子表格。

Each line is one loan.

每条线都是一笔贷款。

And it has all sorts of information like how much the house sold for, what the interest rate is.

它有各种各样的信息，比如房子卖了多少钱，利率是多少。

He points to one field, which is the most baffling one.

他指着一个领域，这是最令人困惑的一个领域。

It's just a cell on a spreadsheet.

它只是电子表格上的一个单元格。

And it just has 12 letters and numbers in a row.

它只有 12 个连续的字母和数字。

Every letter represents a month.

每个字母代表一个月。

What does the nine mean?

九个是什么意思？

Steve Pennington It means they are 90 days of, basically, delinquent on their loan.

Steve Pennington 这意味着他们基本上已经拖欠贷款 90 天了。

So is this the Matrix , where the guy's looking at the green digits passing.

这就是黑客帝国，那个家伙正在看着绿色的数字经过。

And he's saying, oh there's the redhead, there's the blond?

他说，哦，那是红发女郎，那是金发女郎？

Are you, Steve, seeing lives here?

史蒂夫，你看到这里的生活了吗？

I definitely see lives.

我确实看到了生命。

Tonko Gast Especially when you look at this here, this thing here?

Tonko Gast 特别是当你看到这里的时候，这里的东西？

That's to me, the most vivid.

这对我来说是最生动的。

Just for the record, I see a bunch of-- CCCCC3636CC-- I do not see a human drama.

郑重声明一下，我看到了一堆——CCCCC3636CC——我没有看到人类戏剧。

The drama here, is you've got someone who's been paying their loan, and then something's happened.

这里的戏剧性是，有人一直在偿还贷款，然后发生了一些事情。

And then they've gone three months delinquent, three months delinquent, six months delinquent, and then three months.

然后他们拖欠三个月，拖欠三个月，拖欠六个月，然后拖欠三个月。

So they basically got to this point of six, and then they fought back the current.

所以他们基本上就到了这个六人的地步，然后他们就逆​​流而上。

Now that I've learned the code, now that you've taught me the code, I see it.

既然我已经学会了代码，既然你已经教了我代码，我就明白了。

Like here, he was on time for a bunch of months.

就像在这里，他有好几个月都准时。

Then he went 30 days, 30 days, 30 days.

然后他就这样过了30天，30天，30天。

Then he went two months behind.

然后他就晚了两个月。

Then he came back.

然后他回来了。

And now he seems to--

而现在他似乎——

Right, what's really hard about this is then you watch people-- you can watch over these 12 months, people cycle on and off.

是的，真正困难的是你要观察人们——你可以观察这 12 个月，人们的循环周期。

You guys are much more sympathetic.

你们更有同情心。

And it might be just because we're reporters, and you want to make us think you're good guys, but you're really cold-hearted.

可能只是因为我们是记者，你想让我们觉得你是好人，但你真的很冷酷。

We're human beings.

我们是人类。

Alex Blumberg These guys are hurting you.

亚历克斯·布隆伯格 这些家伙正在伤害你。

Their irresponsibility is costing you money and work.

他们的不负责任正在让你付出金钱和工作的代价。

That was up to us to think about three years ago.

这取决于我们三年前的思考。

Do you have any anger when you look at this?

看到这里你有没有愤怒呢？

This is where the partnership of borrowers like Clarence Nathan and investors liked Jim Finkel has ended up.

这就是克拉伦斯·内森（Clarence Nathan）等借款人与吉姆·芬克尔（Jim Finkel）等投资者的合作关系的终结。

Tonko Gast estimates that most of the AAA rated mortgage-backed CDOs that the industry created since 2006 are now worth less than half their value.

Tonko Gast 估计，该行业自 2006 年以来创建的大多数 AAA 级抵押贷款支持 CDO 目前价值还不到其价值的一半。

Some are worth close to 0.

有些价值接近于0。

But remember, to all the investment managers in the global pool of money who bought them AAA meant safe as government bonds.

但请记住，对于全球资金池中所有购买 AAA 债券的投资经理来说，这意味着与政府债券一样安全。

AAA was called a cash equivalent, money in the bank.

AAA被称为现金等价物，即银行里的钱。

It's as if the global pool of money put trillions of dollars in a savings account, came back one year later, and found out that half the money was gone.

就好像全球资金池将数万亿美元存入储蓄账户，一年后回来时发现一半的钱不见了。

Or put another way, it's as if the global pool of money thought it was putting trillions of dollars in a savings account, but really half of it was going into a furnace.

或者换句话说，就好像全球资金池以为将数万亿美元存入储蓄账户，但实际上其中一半进入了熔炉。

The money is gone, burned up, never to come back.

钱没了，烧光了，再也回不来了。

And that has led to a new term you've been hearing.

这导致了您一直听到的一个新术语。

Yeah, maybe you've noticed that the press and others don't call it a sub-prime housing crisis as much.

是的，也许您已经注意到媒体和其他人并没有将其称为次贷住房危机。

They're now calling it a credit crisis.

他们现在称之为信用危机。

The global pool of money still has no idea how much money they lost, how much went into the furnace.

全球资金池仍然不知道他们损失了多少钱，有多少钱进了熔炉。

And because of that, they've totally changed their thinking.

正因为如此，他们彻底改变了想法。

They used to be obsessed just with getting some kind of profit, any higher interest rate return.

他们过去只痴迷于获得某种利润，任何更高的利率回报。

Now the global pool of money has the exact opposite obsession.

现在，全球资金池却有着完全相反的痴迷。

It wants no risk whatsoever.

它不希望有任何风险。

It just wants safety.

它只是想要安全。

Suddenly, those US government treasury bonds-- still near the historic lows of 1% and 2%-- are beautifully attractive because they're safe.

突然间，那些仍接近 1% 和 2% 历史低点的美国政府国债因安全而极具吸引力。

They will never blow up like sub-prime CDOs did.

它们永远不会像次贷 CDO 那样爆发。

The global pool of money is avoiding anything with even the slightest hint of risk.

全球资金池正在避免任何有哪怕是最轻微风险的事情。

And that affects everybody, no matter who you are.

这会影响每个人，无论你是谁。

It's harder to borrow money to buy a house, or build a factory, or bring your country boldly into the 21st century.

借钱买房子、建工厂、或者让你的国家大胆地进入21世纪都变得更加困难。

Take Iceland.

以冰岛为例。

A year ago, it was easy for them to borrow billions.

一年前，他们借到数十亿美元很容易。

Now they're seen as too risky.

现在他们被认为风险太大。

Their central bank has to pay more than 15% interest to get anyone to loan them money.

他们的中央银行必须支付超过 15% 的利息才能让任何人借钱给他们。

They could do better putting their national debt on a credit card.

他们可以做得更好，把国家债务记在信用卡上。

Hungary, Kazakhstan, Turkey, they are all in similar situations.

匈牙利、哈萨克斯坦、土耳其，他们的情况都差不多。

You might have heard about problems in student lending.

您可能听说过学生贷款的问题。

Companies that needed credit to survive are shutting down.

需要信贷才能生存的公司正在倒闭。

The US expects more than 1.1 million bankruptcies this year, twice the 2006 number.

美国预计今年破产人数将超过 110 万，是 2006 年数字的两倍。

This freezing of credit all around the world is something new.

世界各地的信贷冻结是新鲜事。

The world has never seen anything on this scale.

世界上从未见过如此规模的事情。

When the crisis hit last August, central bankers and finance economists couldn't figure out just how bad things might get.

去年八月危机爆发时，央行行长和金融经济学家无法弄清楚事情会变得多么糟糕。

There is this question people would ask, will things get like the 1930s or the 1970s?

人们会问这样一个问题：事情会变得像 1930 年代还是 1970 年代？

There's a real fear that just like in the '30s, hundreds of banks would collapse.

人们确实担心，就像 30 年代一样，数百家银行会倒闭。

There would be massive unemployment.

将会出现大规模失业。

There was talk of a new, Great Depression.

有人谈论新的大萧条。

That talk seems to have faded.

那句话似乎已经消失了。

And there's more talk that the next few years will feel like the 1970s.

更多人认为未来几年将像 20 世纪 70 年代一样。

There are lots of technical differences between this crisis and Jimmy Carter's malaise.

这场危机与吉米·卡特的萎靡不振之间存在许多技术差异。

But for the average person it could feel the same.

但对于普通人来说，感觉可能是一样的。

It's not an out-and-out depression.

这并不是彻头彻尾的抑郁症。

Everything's just kind of crappy.

一切都有点糟糕。

And not just in housing and banking, but for the economy as a whole.

不仅是住房和银行业，而且是整个经济。

It's barely growing.

它几乎没有增长。

There aren't a lot of new businesses, new jobs, unemployment keeps creeping up.

没有太多新企业、新就业机会，失业率不断上升。

We're just sort of stuck in neutral for a while.

我们只是暂时处于中立状态。

Anyone under, say, 45 probably doesn't remember that 1970s malaise too well.

任何 45 岁以下的人可能不太记得 20 世纪 70 年代的不适。

Anyone under 30 has barely known a US economy that wasn't growing.

30 岁以下的人几乎不知道美国经济没有增长。

Now, there's a decent chance we'll all get to see what life felt like in the '70s, which isn't great.

现在，我们有一个很好的机会看到 70 年代的生活，但那并不好。

It's pretty bad, actually, unless you're comparing it to the 1930s.

事实上，这很糟糕，除非你将它与 1930 年代进行比较。

Alex Blumberg and Adam Davidson.

亚历克斯·布隆伯格和亚当·戴维森。

Alex, my voice is so bad, I think maybe you should read the credits.

亚历克斯，我的声音太糟糕了，我想也许你应该看看片尾字幕。

Why don't you do it?

你为什么不这样做呢？

All right, Ira.

好吧，艾拉。

I hope you feel better.

我希望你感觉好一些。

I'm going to bring Adam in here to help me to, since I've never done this before.

我要把 Adam 带到这里来帮助我，因为我以前从未这样做过。

Thanks today to Ellen Weiss at NPR who made this collaboration happen this week between the news division at NPR, where I work, All Things Considered , and This American Life .

今天要感谢 NPR 的艾伦·韦斯 (Ellen Weiss)，是她让我工作的 NPR 新闻部门、《All Things Thought》和《This American Life》本周得以实现这一合作。

Where I work.

我工作的地方。

Thanks also to Mary Ann Casavant, Anna Chai, Kevin Byers, the fantastic housing blog, Calculated Risk , Alexis Grenell, Stephanie Cohen Glass, Sanjeev Handa, Charlie Ledley, James Scurlock, Chris Turpin, Elaine Glick, Mark [?

还要感谢 Mary Ann Casavant、Anna Chai、Kevin Byers、出色的住房博客、Calculated Risk、Alexis Grenell、Stephanie Cohen Glass、Sanjeev Handa、Charlie Ledley、James Scurlock、Chris Turpin、Elaine Glick、Mark [？

Adelson, ?] Dan Naygrow.

阿德尔森，？] 丹·奈格罗。

This American Life is distributed by Public Radio International.

《美国生活》由国际公共广播电台发行。

[FUNDING CREDITS] WBEZ management oversight--

[资金来源] WBEZ 管理监督——

No, I want to do this one.

不，我想做这个。

Alex Blumberg OK, here you go.

亚历克斯·布隆伯格 好的，给你。

WBEZ management oversight for our program by Ira's boss Mr. Torey Malatia.

WBEZ 管理部门由 Ira 的老板 Torey Malatia 先生对我们的项目进行监督。

He and Ira go out at night sometimes together.

他和艾拉有时晚上一起出去。

It's pretty chill.

真是太冷了。

Torey describes it like this--

托里这样描述——

You know, we order probably three or four bottles of Cristal at a $1,000 a bottle.

你知道，我们可能以每瓶 1,000 美元的价格订购三到四瓶 Cristal。

Everybody's like, whoa, who's the cool guys?

每个人都会说，哇，谁是最酷的人？

I'm not Ira Glass.

我不是艾拉·格拉斯。

Adam Davidson I'm not either.

亚当·戴维森 我也不是。

But we will be back next week with more stories of This American Life.

但我们下周会带着更多关于《美国生活》的故事回来。

This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.

《This American Life》与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。