320: What’s In A Number? — 2006 Edition - This American Life

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00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #320 | November 3, 2006 320: What’s In A Number?

00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 320 集 | 2006 年 11 月 3 日 320：数字中有什么？

— 2006 Edition Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.

— 2006 年版 注：《This American Life》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。

If you are able, we strongly encourage you to listen to the audio, which includes emotion and emphasis that's not on the page.

如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。

Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.

文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。

Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.

请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。

Prologue Ira Glass OK, here's a simple way to measure how violent things have gotten in Iraq.

序言 Ira Glass 好的，这里有一个简单的方法来衡量伊拉克局势的暴力程度。

Calling around this week to five English-speaking Iraqis.

本周给五位说英语的伊拉克人打电话。

Every one of them knew somebody who's died in the violence since the US invasion.

他们每个人都认识在美国入侵以来的暴力事件中丧生的人。

A doctor in Baghdad, who's active in politics, told me he knows over 300 people who've died.

巴格达的一位活跃于政坛的医生告诉我，他认识 300 多名死者。

A guy in Babylon says it's pretty safe where he lives, but his cousin was shot by Americans when he got too close to them on the road.

巴比伦的一个人说他住的地方很安全，但他的表弟在路上离美国人太近时被美国人枪杀。

A medical student's cousins died from an IED exploding in the street.

一名医学生的表兄弟因街上简易爆炸装置爆炸而身亡。

And he has friends who died too.

他也有死去的朋友。

One of them was kidnapped.

其中一人被绑架。

Then the cops were trying to save them, then accidentally he was shot.

然后警察试图营救他们，但不小心他被枪杀了。

Then another friend that I had in college, he was in my grade-- it was last year-- he was in his car, driving to college, and he was suddenly shot by unknown men.

然后我在大学里的另一个朋友，他和我同年级——那是去年——他在车里，开车去大学，突然被不明身份的人枪杀。

Just today told me, when he went to the store near his house, he saw three people were killed.

就在今天告诉我，当他去他家附近的商店时，他看到三个人被杀。

No one knows why.

没有人知道为什么。

Ali, a bookstore owner in Baghdad that I talked to picked up a list of people he knows who've died.

我采访过的巴格达书店老板阿里拿到了一份他认识的死者名单。

Friends, relatives neighbors.

朋友，亲戚邻居。

The situation, no matter how much I don't talk about, it cannot described how it is.

这种情况，无论我怎么不说，都无法描述到底是怎样的情况。

How often will you hear that a friend or a friend of a friend or a relative has died?

您多久会听到朋友、朋友的朋友或亲戚去世的消息？

Is it once a week?

是每周一次吗？

Every day, believe me.

每一天，相信我。

Ira Glass No. Every day?

艾拉·格拉斯 每天都没有？

I swear.

我发誓。

Just two hours ago a neighbor has been killed in our neighborhood.

就在两小时前，我们附近的一位邻居被杀。

He was shot dead.

他被枪杀了。

He was with his wife in his car, and some gunmen pulled over and just shot him and gunned him down because he's a Shiite.

他和他的妻子在车里，一些枪手靠边停车，开枪射杀了他，因为他是什叶派。

That's horrible.

太可怕了。

Man 2 I saw three similar incidents-- getting a man killed in front of his wife and two children.

男人2 我见过三起类似的事件——一名男子在他的妻子和两个孩子面前被杀。

The oldest girl is about five years of age.

最大的女孩大约五岁。

And she was shouting, oh, daddy, please daddy, don't die.

她喊道，哦，爸爸，求求你爸爸，不要死。

In front of my eyes.

在我眼前。

I don't know these people, but this happened in front of my eyes.

我不认识这些人，但这件事就发生在我眼前。

It's like you're getting used to it.

就好像你已经习惯了。

You hear people die.

你听到人们死去。

OK, people die.

好吧，人都会死。

It's at the point now where if you go up to a dead body and try to clear it away, you're in danger of getting shot yourself.

现在，如果你走到一具尸体旁并试图将其清除，你自己就有被枪杀的危险。

It's at the point now where Iraqis are getting their names, addresses, and phone numbers tattooed on their bodies.

现在，伊拉克人开始将自己的姓名、地址和电话号码纹在身上。

So if they're killed, their bodies will be identified and returned to their families.

因此，如果他们被杀，他们的尸体将被辨认并归还给他们的家人。

People I talked to said they're scared all the time.

和我交谈过的人说他们一直很害怕。

Everybody said that it was better when Saddam was in power.

大家都说萨达姆执政的时候更好。

Not that they like Saddam.

并不是说他们喜欢萨达姆。

Mohaned, an architect, described the choice between Saddam and the current situation in this way.

建筑师穆罕默德这样描述了萨达姆与现状之间的选择。

They're two bad choices, I must say.

我必须说，这是两个糟糕的选择。

Saddam's staying in power is not a solution.

萨达姆继续掌权并不是解决问题的办法。

Yeah.

是的。

Mohaned And there was no light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak.

可以这么说，隧道尽头没有光。

But today there is no tunnel.

但今天没有隧道。

Seems like every day we hear these stories and numbers from Iraq.

似乎我们每天都会听到来自伊拉克的这些故事和数字。

Car bombings, more deaths, sectarian killings.

汽车爆炸、更多死亡、宗派杀戮。

But today on our radio show, we try to understand what you would think would be one of the simplest facts about the war, once and for all.

但今天在我们的广播节目中，我们试图一劳永逸地了解您认为关于战争的最简单的事实之一。

From WBEZ Chicago, it's This American Life , distributed by Public Radio International.

来自芝加哥 WBEZ 的《This American Life》，由国际公共广播电台发行。

I'm Ira Glass.

我是艾拉·格拉斯。

Our program in three acts today.

我们今天的节目分三幕。

Now, in the second half of the show we have a very unusual recording of US forces trying to make things right with Iraqis, after the US accidentally killed 12 civilians.

现在，在节目的后半部分，我们有一个非常不寻常的记录，在美国意外杀害 12 名平民后，美军试图与伊拉克人和好。

In the other acts of the show we talk about a number, and in one of the acts a small news story that nobody ever really seemed to take very seriously at the time.

在该剧的其他几幕中，我们谈论了一些数字，其中一幕是一个当时似乎没有人真正认真对待的小新闻故事。

And what was really behind that story.

以及这个故事背后的真正含义。

Stay with us.

留在我们身边。

Act One.

第一幕。

Truths, Damn Truths, and Statistics.

真相，该死的真相和统计数据。

Well, the number that we're going to talk about right now-- and we are going to talk about a number-- the number is how many civilians have died as a result of a war.

好吧，我们现在要谈论的数字——我们要谈论一个数字——这个数字是有多少平民因战争而死亡。

Fact is, nobody is even pretending to have an accurate count.

事实上，没有人假装自己有准确的计数。

Iraqi Ministry of Health for a while, early on in the war, was compiling morgue figures from across the country and making them public each week.

战争初期，伊拉克卫生部曾一度收集全国各地太平间的数据，并每周公布。

But that practice was stopped.

但这种做法被停止了。

There's also a privately run nonprofit web site called iraqbodycount.net, which keeps a running tally of confirmed deaths in Iraq.

还有一个名为 iraqbodycount.net 的私营非营利网站，该网站持续统计伊拉克确诊死亡人数。

That's as opposed to an estimate of all the deaths in the country.

这与该国所有死亡人数的估计相反。

And there have been two studies published in the British medical journal, The Lancet .

英国医学杂志《柳叶刀》上发表了两项研究。

One of the studies came out just a few weeks ago.

其中一项研究几周前刚刚发表。

The other came out two years ago.

另一个是两年前问世的。

And both of these studies arrived at casualty numbers that are so high, they shocked many people.

这两项研究得出的伤亡数字如此之高，令许多人感到震惊。

Right now, in this first act, we're going to return to a story that one of our producers, Alex Blumberg, did for our show a year ago about that first Lancet study.

现在，在第一幕中，我们将回到我们的制片人之一亚历克斯·布隆伯格一年前为我们的节目所做的关于《柳叶刀》第一项研究的故事。

Later in the show, in act three, we're going to look at the study that just came out.

在节目稍后的第三幕中，我们将看看刚刚发表的研究。

Anyway, here's Alex.

无论如何，这是亚历克斯。

Everyone will tell you counting casualties in wartime is hard.

每个人都会告诉你，统计战时的伤亡人数是很困难的。

First of all, you need to do something called a large-scale mortality survey.

首先，你需要进行大规模死亡率调查。

And second of all, you need to do it in the middle of a war zone.

其次，你需要在战区中部进行。

The first attempt ever made in Iraq was this Johns Hopkins University study published in The Lancet , a British Medical Journal, in late October 2004.

约翰·霍普金斯大学的这项研究于 2004 年 10 月下旬发表在英国医学杂志《柳叶刀》上，这是在伊拉克进行的首次尝试。

A couple of days before the US presidential election.

距离美国总统大选还有几天。

It concluded that probably a 100,000 Iraqis died as a result of the war.

其结论是，大约有 10 万伊拉克人死于战争。

This figure was astonishingly high.

这个数字高得惊人。

10 times higher than any other casualty estimates at the time.

比当时任何其他伤亡估计高出 10 倍。

Because of this, and because the study itself got almost no traction in the press, I remember thinking at the time it came out that it was probably bogus and slanted.

正因为如此，而且这项研究本身几乎没有受到媒体的关注，我记得当时我想它可能是伪造的且有偏见的。

I'm guessing a lot of people, if they heard about the study at all, felt the way I did.

我猜很多人如果听说过这项研究，也会有和我一样的感受。

But recently, in trying to find out how many Iraqis have died in the war, I've learned more about the Lancet study.

但最近，在试图找出有多少伊拉克人在战争中死亡时，我对《柳叶刀》的研究有了更多了解。

And the more I learned about it, and the remarkable story of how it was done, the more likely it seems that the 100,000 figure is actually the best estimate and possibly low.

我对它以及它是如何完成的非凡故事了解得越多，我就越觉得 100,000 这个数字实际上是最好的估计，而且可能很低。

Before the Iraq study, the main thing I was known for-- and that I'd testified in front of Congress for-- was documenting how many people had died in the war in the Congo.

在伊拉克研究之前，我出名的主要事情——也是我在国会面前作证的原因——是记录了刚果战争中的死亡人数。

This is Les Roberts, the lead author on the Lancet study.

我是莱斯·罗伯茨，《柳叶刀》研究的主要作者。

And one of a handful of scientists in the world who could be called an expert in counting war dead.

他是世界上为数不多的几位堪称战争死亡人数专家的科学家之一。

In the Congo study he found that 1.7 million civilians had died from the war, a figure cited by Colin Powell when he was Secretary of State and Tony Blair on the floor of the British Parliament.

在刚果的研究中，他发现有 170 万平民死于战争，担任国务卿的科林·鲍威尔和英国议会的托尼·布莱尔都引用了这一数字。

Les has also done studies in Burundi, Rwanda and Sierra Leone.

莱斯还曾在布隆迪、卢旺达和塞拉利昂进行过研究。

To a guy in Les Robert's line of work, the war in Iraq had a number of unique and interesting things that deserve study.

对于莱斯·罗伯特的同僚来说，伊拉克战争有许多独特而有趣的事情值得研究。

The main thing that distinguished this war was that the military took unprecedented care to avoid civilian casualties.

这场战争的主要特点是军方前所未有地小心翼翼地避免平民伤亡。

Almost 2/3 of the bombs dropped were precision guided, as compared to just 8% in the first Gulf War and 0% in World War II.

投下的炸弹中近 2/3 是精确制导的，而第一次海湾战争中只有 8%，第二次世界大战中只有 0%。

They limited daytime strikes and avoided civilian infrastructure like power and sewer plants.

他们限制了白天的罢工，并避开了发电厂和下水道厂等民用基础设施。

Compare that to World War II, where American forces firebombed entire cities as part of the military strategy, killing up to 100,000 people in Tokyo alone.

与第二次世界大战相比，作为军事战略的一部分，美军对整个城市进行了燃烧弹轰炸，仅在东京就造成了多达 10 万人死亡。

And upwards of half a million civilians in Europe.

欧洲有超过 50 万平民。

And you can see why George Bush called the Iraq War one of the most quote, "humane military campaigns in history." The lesson here that often it's not bombs and bullets that kill people in war, it's the other things that happen when society falls apart.

你就会明白为什么乔治·布什称伊拉克战争为“历史上最人道的军事行动”之一。这里的教训是，在战争中杀人的往往不是炸弹和子弹，而是社会崩溃时发生的其他事情。

Clean water and medical supplies get scarce.

清洁水和医疗用品变得稀缺。

In a lot of the studies he did in Africa, diarrhea killed more people than weapons did.

在他在非洲进行的许多研究中，腹泻造成的死亡人数比武器造成的死亡人数还要多。

Women can't get to the hospital to deliver their babies so infant mortality rates go up as well.

妇女无法前往医院分娩，因此婴儿死亡率也会上升。

It took Les a long time to get to Iraq and see if the same things were happening there.

莱斯花了很长时间才到达伊拉克，看看那里是否也发生同样的事情。

First, an Iraqi doctor who he'd planned to work with, died in an auto accident.

首先，他原本计划合作的一名伊拉克医生在一场车祸中丧生。

Another social ill, by the way, that tends to increase during wartime.

顺便说一句，另一种社会弊病在战时往往会加剧。

And then insurgent violence spiked.

然后叛乱暴力激增。

It wasn't until August of 2004, five months after he'd originally planned to go, that he finally landed in Amman, Jordan.

直到2004年8月，也就是他原计划去的五个月后，他才终于抵达约旦安曼。

He had $24,000 in foundation money in his pocket, his passport, and a letter of invitation from the Iraqi Ministry of Education.

他的口袋里有2.4万美元的基金会资金、护照和伊拉克教育部的邀请函。

He found a driver, a retired Iraqi army officer named Wahid, who agreed to take him to Baghdad.

他找到了一名司机，一位名叫瓦希德的退休伊拉克军官，他同意带他去巴格达。

Problems started at the very first checkpoint, on the border between Jordan and Iraq.

问题始于约旦和伊拉克边境的第一个检查站。

Well, he takes my passport, he takes my letter of invitation, and he goes and he comes out just a few minutes later and he is just terrified.

好吧，他拿走了我的护照，他拿走了我的邀请函，然后他就走了，几分钟后他就出来了，他只是感到害怕。

Turns out he bumped into a former friend of his from his military days, and he had pulled out my passport in front of him.

原来他碰见了他以前当兵时的朋友，他当着他的面拿出了我的护照。

And his friend just blanched and pushed the passport back into his pocket and said, "You have an American here.

他的朋友脸色煞白，把护照塞回口袋里说道：“这里有一个美国人。

Are you crazy?

你疯了吗？

Don't let anyone see that.

不要让任何人看到。

Just get the hell out of here and don't let me see you again.

赶紧离开这里，别让我再见到你。

And oh, you idiot."

还有哦，你这个白痴。”

Fortunately for Les, Wahid he was something of a Han Solo figure.

对莱斯·瓦希德来说幸运的是，他有点像汉·索罗。

An unenthusiastic but talented smuggler, who didn't look for trouble but didn't run away from it once it found him.

一个不热心但很有才华的走私犯，他不找麻烦，但一旦麻烦找到他也不逃避。

He talked his way through that first checkpoint.

他用自己的方式通过了第一个检查站。

And we drive up a couple of miles.

我们开车走了几英里。

And he pulls off the road, behind this abandoned old gas station.

他把车停在路边，停在这个废弃的旧加油站后面。

And in the upholstery of his car, he's got hidden another pair of license plates with a different color.

在他的汽车内饰中，他隐藏了另一对不同颜色的车牌。

And he's got another registration form to go with those license plates.

他还有另一张登记表与这些车牌一起使用。

So quickly, he gets out and he changes his license plates.

很快，他就下了车，换了车牌。

And he says, "Look, you must lie down.

他说：“听着，你必须躺下。

You must stay hidden." And so I spent the next eight hours lying on the floor.

你必须隐藏起来。”就这样我在接下来的八个小时里躺在地板上。

And we actually had to go through two extra points where they stopped and looked around in the car.

事实上，我们还必须经过两个额外的地点，他们在那里停下来，在车里环顾四周。

And he chatted with folks and here I am, I'm lying down behind the back seat on the floor.

他和人们聊天，我在这里，躺在后座后面的地板上。

So when they stopped and looked around, you were actually hiding from them?

那么当他们停下来环顾四周时，你实际上是在躲避他们吗？

That's right.

这是正确的。

Alex Blumberg And were you scared?

Alex Blumberg 你害怕吗？

That's a funny thing.

这是一件有趣的事情。

I had consciously made the decision that it was worth trading my life for a chance at getting a realistic estimate of how many Iraqi civilians have died and how they've died.

我有意识地做出决定，值得用我的生命来换取一个机会，以便对伊拉克平民的死亡人数和死亡方式进行现实的估计。

So I was quite at peace with the notion of dying when I went.

所以当我去的时候我对死亡的想法很平静。

Les finally made it to Baghdad, where he met, for the first time in person, his Iraqi co-researcher.

莱斯最终抵达巴格达，在那里他第一次见到了他的伊拉克合作研究员。

The man with whom he'd be working for the next month.

下个月将与他一起工作的那个人。

His name was Riyadh Lafta, and he was a doctor of community medicine at Al-Mustansiriya University, in Baghdad.

他的名字叫利雅德·拉夫塔 (Riyadh Lafta)，是巴格达穆斯坦西里亚大学的社区医学博士。

Riyadh had hired a team of researchers, mostly doctors from his university.

利雅得聘请了一组研究人员，其中大部分是他所在大学的医生。

All of them native Iraqis, but fluent in English.

他们都是伊拉克人，但英语很流利。

Let's pause here a moment to talk about their methodology.

让我们在这里暂停一下，谈谈他们的方法论。

Because when the study came out later, a lot of people wanted to believe that it was flawed or biased.

因为当这项研究后来出来时，很多人都愿意相信它是有缺陷或有偏见的。

In fact, the survey team used a standard methodology for measuring health and mortality over a geographic area.

事实上，调查小组使用了标准方法来衡量某个地理区域的健康和死亡率。

It's called a cluster sample survey, and it works like this.

这就是所谓的整群抽样调查，它的工作原理是这样的。

Using the most recent census figures available on Iraq, the team made what was essentially a map of the population.

该团队利用伊拉克最新的人口普查数据，绘制了一张人口地图。

They then used a random number generator to pick 33 points on that map.

然后他们使用随机数生成器在该地图上选取 33 个点。

Baghdad was the biggest population center, so it got several points by itself.

巴格达是最大的人口中心，因此它本身就获得了几分。

But the other points were spread all over the country, from the Kurdish north to the Shiite south.

但其他点分布在全国各地，从库尔德北部到什叶派南部。

From small towns to big cities.

从小城镇到大城市。

Once they picked a town though, the team still had to figure out who the interview there.

不过，一旦选择了一个城镇，团队仍然必须弄清楚在那里接受采访的人是谁。

Here again, they worked hard to leave everything to chance.

在这里，他们再次努力工作，让一切都听天由命。

Using GPS units, they would drive around the outskirts of the town and store the coordinates, creating a rough outline of the town border.

他们将使用 GPS 装置在城镇郊区行驶并存储坐标，从而绘制出城镇边界的粗略轮廓。

They would then generate a random point within that border, drive to it, and interview the 30 nearest households.

然后，他们会在该边界内随机生成一个点，开车前往该点，并采访最近的 30 个家庭。

It was such a commitment to random sampling that the first few times the team did it, even the researchers Les and Riyadh were working with found it obsessive.

由于对随机抽样的承诺如此强烈，以至于团队最初几次这样做时，就连莱斯和利雅得的研究人员也发现了这种做法的痴迷。

It was very annoying to them, because here they are in the car.

这对他们来说非常烦人，因为他们在车里。

they're out there feeling like they're at risk.

他们在外面感觉自己处于危险之中。

And they'd be driving around for a long time to get to the extremes of the city and draw their map before they interviewed the first house.

在采访第一栋房子之前，他们会开很长时间的车到城市的尽头并绘制地图。

They're driving around and not getting any work done, they felt.

他们觉得，他们到处开车却没有完成任何工作。

And this is all just to make it as scientifically valid as possible, right?

这一切只是为了使其尽可能具有科学依据，对吧？

This is a way of picking houses without any sort of preference for safe neighborhoods, dangerous neighborhoods, near the highway, far from the highway.

这是一种选择房屋的方式，对安全社区、危险社区、靠近高速公路、远离高速公路没有任何偏好。

It was a way of sort of transcending human laziness so that, in essence, every household in Iraq had an equal chance we would visit them.

这是一种超越人类懒惰的方式，因此从本质上讲，伊拉克的每个家庭都有平等的机会去拜访他们。

And that is, in essence, the definition of random.

从本质上讲，这就是随机的定义。

The survey went smoothly, at least for the first couple of days.

调查进行得很顺利，至少在最初几天是这样。

People, it turned out, were much more willing to answer questions, even to provide death certificates as verification, than the researchers had initially thought they'd be.

事实证明，人们比研究人员最初想象的更愿意回答问题，甚至提供死亡证明作为证明。

In fact, the trouble, when it came, came from Les himself.

事实上，当麻烦来临时，正是莱斯本人带来的。

Must be about the fifth day I was out with them, the eighth cluster I attended.

大概是我和他们一起出去的第五天，这是我参加的第八个集群。

I and two of the interviewers were up in a town to the north called Balad.

我和两位采访者在北部一个叫巴拉德的小镇。

And there was a huge picture of the cleric Sadr as he rolled in to Balad.

还有一张神职人员萨德尔滚进巴拉德时的巨幅照片。

So clearly it was an anti-coalition city in a big way.

很明显，从很大程度上来说，这是一座反联盟城市。

Sadr of Sadr militia.

萨德尔民兵的萨德尔。

Les Roberts Of the Sadr militia.

萨德尔民兵的莱斯·罗伯茨。

That's right.

这是正确的。

And as fate would have it, the first or second door they knocked on was the governor's house.

命运就是这样，他们敲的第一扇或第二扇门就是总督府。

And so somebody calls the police.

于是有人报了警。

Les watched from the car as the police took the two researchers, both doctors.

莱斯在车上看着警察带走了两名研究人员，他们都是医生。

One a dignified man in his fifties and the other a single mother, and drove them away.

一个是五十多岁的堂堂男人，另一个是单身母亲，把他们赶走了。

He was terrified that somehow the police would find out that they were working with him, an American.

他害怕警察会以某种方式发现他们正在与他这个美国人合作。

But he could do nothing but sit in the parked car and hope no one discovered him.

但他无能为力，只能坐在停着的车里，希望没有人发现他。

I had done everything I could to be invisible.

我已竭尽全力让自己隐形。

I wore boring Iraqi clothing.

我穿着乏味的伊拉克服装。

I had dyed my hair black.

我把头发染成了黑色。

I had grown a beard so I would look right, but it still didn't look right.

我留了胡子，这样看起来就不错，但看起来还是不太对劲。

They had made up a fake business cards that said Doctor Abdul Salaam, that I was from Bosnia.

他们伪造了一张假名片，上面写着阿卜杜勒·萨拉姆医生，我来自波斯尼亚。

Because that would explain me being a blue-eyed, non-Arabic speaking, but I could still be a Muslim and that would make me OK.

因为这可以解释我是一个蓝眼睛、不讲阿拉伯语的人，但我仍然可以是一个穆斯林，这会让我没事。

And I was just so worried that sitting there for an exorbitant length of time would draw attention, that I put the back of the passenger seat down and I sort of laid on my side to pretend I was asleep.

我只是担心坐在那里太久会引起注意，所以我把乘客座椅的靠背放倒，侧身躺着假装睡着了。

So I wouldn't have to speak to anyone if anyone came to the window of the car.

因此，如果有人来到车窗前，我就不必与任何人说话。

And I had probably been lying on my side for about 20, 30 minutes.

我可能已经侧躺了大约 20、30 分钟。

And these two little kids, they might have been 10, they came up to the window beside where I was.

这两个小孩子，他们可能只有 10 岁，他们来到我旁边的窗户前。

They stuck their head in the car, they looked around-- and I'm pretending to be asleep-- and they said to me in English, hello mister!

他们把头伸进车里，环顾四周——我假装睡着了——然后他们用英语对我说，你好，先生！

And even with my eyes closed, pretending to be asleep, there's just no way I could pretend I was an Iraqi.

即使我闭上眼睛假装睡着，我也无法假装自己是伊拉克人。

And there was no way around it.

而且没有办法解决这个问题。

So that was a pretty just horrifying experience all around.

所以这真是一次非常可怕的经历。

And I'm wondering, have I gotten these two lovely interviewers arrested or killed.

我想知道，我是否让这两位可爱的采访者被捕或被杀了。

And after an hour or a little more, a car brought back the two interviewers.

一个多小时后，一辆车带回了两位面试官。

And they went right back to work.

然后他们就回去工作了。

They didn't come to the car.

他们没有上车。

They didn't look at us.

他们没有看我们。

They didn't acknowledge us.

他们不承认我们。

They just went right back to work and finished out the 30 houses randomly picked in that neighborhood, and off we went.

他们立即回去工作，完成了在该社区随机挑选的 30 栋房子，然后我们就出发了。

But after that day, no interviewer ever spoke to me again.

但那天之后，就没有面试官再跟我说话了。

Not in person.

不是亲自。

Riyadh and Les decided that for everyone's safety he should lay as low as possible.

利雅得和莱斯决定，为了每个人的安全，他应该尽可能低地躺着。

So for the next 16 days straight he didn't leave his hotel.

所以接下来的16天他都没有离开过酒店。

To pass the time, he crunched the numbers that the survey teams were calling in to him every night.

为了打发时间，他每天晚上都会处理调查小组给他打电话的数字。

The surveyors were getting basically two pieces of information from each household.

调查人员基本上从每个家庭获得了两条信息。

How many people in that household had died in the 14 months before the invasion.

入侵前 14 个月内，该家庭有多少人死亡。

And of what and when.

以及什么以及何时。

And how many had died in the 17 months after the invasion.

入侵后 17 个月内有多少人死亡。

And of what and when.

以及什么以及何时。

By the time the teams had completed their 32nd out of 33 clusters, over 900 households and over 7,000 people, the results were pretty shocking.

当团队完成 33 个集群中的第 32 个、900 多户、7000 多人时，结果相当令人震惊。

The death rate itself had gone up about 60%.

死亡率本身上升了约 60%。

A large increase, but one that Les had expected from his other surveys.

增幅很大，但这是莱斯在其他调查中所预料到的。

The shocker was how people were dying.

令人震惊的是人们的死亡方式。

For the first time, in any of his surveys, the leading cause of death wasn't disease.

在他的所有调查中，第一次发现死亡的主要原因不是疾病。

It was bombs and bullets.

那是炸弹和子弹。

In the 32 of the 33 clusters sampled, 21 people died of violence.

在抽样的 33 个集群中，有 32 个集群中有 21 人死于暴力。

That's compared to just one violent death in the period before the war.

相比之下，战前期间只有一起暴力死亡事件。

Of those 21, two people died in firefights where it was unclear where the bullet came from.

在这 21 人中，有两人在交火中死亡，目前尚不清楚子弹来自何处。

Three were killed by insurgents, or Saddam loyalists.

其中三人被叛乱分子或萨达姆的效忠者杀害。

Seven died from criminal violence-- carjackings, revenge killings, that sort of thing.

七人死于暴力犯罪——劫车、报复性杀戮等等。

And the biggest number, nine, were killed by the American-led coalition.

最多的人数是九人，是被美国领导的联军杀害的。

I should mention that only three of them involved guys with guns.

我应该提一下，其中只有三人涉及持枪的人。

All the rest were helicopter gunships, and bombs from planes.

其余的都是武装直升机和飞机炸弹。

So it's not about individual soldiers doing bad things.

所以这并不是个别士兵做坏事的问题。

In fact, two of those three cases, when soldiers shot civilians with their guns, they actually went to the houses of the decedents and apologized to the families.

事实上，这三起案件中的两起，当士兵用枪射杀平民时，他们实际上去了死者的家中，向死者家属道歉。

So there's no evidence here of soldiers running amok.

所以这里没有任何证据表明士兵们胡作非为。

There's evidence here of a style of engagement that probably has relied very heavily on air power that has resulted in a lot, a lot of civilian deaths.

这里有证据表明，一种可能非常依赖空中力量的交战方式导致了大量平民死亡。

I was at a presentation last November, and a pentagon spokesperson said that they've dropped about 50,000 bombs in Iraq.

去年 11 月，我参加了一次演讲，五角大楼发言人表示，他们已在伊拉克投放了约 50,000 枚炸弹。

50,000 bombs.

50,000枚炸弹。

Very, very small fraction of them would need to miss their target or be based on bad information to explain 100,000 civilian deaths.

其中非常非常小的一部分需要错过目标或基于错误的信息来解释 100,000 平民的死亡。

At the end of three weeks, there was only one more cluster to survey.

三周结束时，只剩下一个集群需要调查。

The team had saved it for the end, because it was the most dangerous one, Fallujah.

团队把它留到了最后，因为这是最危险的费卢杰。

Remember, this is September 2004.

请记住，这是 2004 年 9 月。

Insurgents control the city.

叛乱分子控制了这座城市。

And it's basically under siege from the Coalition.

它基本上受到联盟的围攻。

They're shelling it regularly.

他们定期炮轰它。

It just seems crazy to go there.

去那里似乎很疯狂。

And I said to Riyadh, "Riyadh, we have been to 32 of our 33 picked neighborhoods.

我对利雅得说：“利雅得，我们已经去过我们挑选的 33 个社区中的 32 个。

We actually only thought in the end we would get to 30.

事实上我们只是以为最终我们会达到 30 名。

We'd aim for 30 and pick 33, with the thought that 10% of places would be too unstable for us to get to.

我们的目标是 30 个，并选择了 33 个，因为我们认为 10% 的地方太不稳定，我们无法到达。

So we've done better than we expected.

所以我们做得比我们预期的要好。

We have a terrible story to tell.

我们有一个可怕的故事要讲。

The mortality is way up.

死亡率大大上升。

Whatever you find in Fallujah is not going to change the story.

无论你在费卢杰发现什么，都不会改变这个故事。

Think of what we're going to gain.

想想我们将获得什么。

We're going to gain nothing.

我们将一无所获。

And he said, "God picked those random locations.

他说：“上帝随机选择了这些地点。

God wants me to do this work.

上帝希望我做这项工作。

I must do this." And we went back and forth and back and forth and back and forth.

我必须这么做。”我们就这样来来回回。

And I was brought up Catholic and I had never really thought about it or understood it until that moment in time.

我是天主教徒长大的，直到那一刻我才真正思考或理解它。

But in my head, I actually sort of build up a weight.

但在我的脑海里，我实际上增加了体重。

What's the likelihood of something bad going to happen to these guys, and how bad is that?

这些人发生不好的事情的可能性有多大，有多糟糕？

What's the likelihood of something good coming from what they do, and how good is that?

他们所做的事情带来好处的可能性有多大？效果有多好？

And I sort of put a weight on each of them.

我对他们每个人都有一定的重视。

And I spoke with Riyadh.

我与利雅得进行了交谈。

He actually did not have the capacity to do that, because for him, doing God's will and this work were inseparable.

他其实没有能力这么做，因为对他来说，遵行神的旨意和这项工作是密不可分的。

He couldn't separate out risk, because that was separating out sort of faith.

他无法排除风险，因为那会排除某种信仰。

The more we spoke, the more I understood that on some very, very fundamental level that we couldn't communicate with each other about our motives here.

我们说得越多，我就越明白，在一些非常非常基本的层面上，我们无法就我们在这里的动机进行沟通。

And in the end he went.

最终他还是去了。

Only one other interviewer agreed to go to Fallujah with Riyadh.

只有另一位采访者同意与利雅得一起前往费卢杰。

A doctor who had relatives there he wanted to check up on.

一位医生在那里有亲戚，他想检查一下。

Their car was stopped three times on the way into the city.

他们的车在进城的路上被拦了3次。

Heading to the random spot, they saw devastation everywhere.

前往随机地点，他们看到到处都是一片废墟。

Houses were bombed.

房屋被炸毁。

Rubble lay in the streets.

街道上满是瓦砾。

The block they stopped on was no different.

他们停下来的街区没有什么不同。

They had to visit 52 households to get the requisite number of interviews.

他们必须走访 52 户家庭才能获得所需数量的访谈。

23 homes were either temporarily or permanently abandoned.

23 所房屋被暂时或永久废弃。

Neighbors said that in the abandoned houses most people had died, but this data couldn't be substantiated.

邻居称，废弃房屋内大多数人已经死亡，但这一数据无法得到证实。

So it wasn't even included in the survey results.

所以它甚至没有包含在调查结果中。

In the 30 households they did survey, there were 53 deaths.

在他们调查的30户家庭中，有53人死亡。

52 of these were violent deaths.

其中 52 人死于暴力。

All but one caused by Coalition weapons.

除一处外，所有这些都是由联军武器造成的。

24 of the people killed by Coalition bombs and bullets (SUBJECT were children under 12 years old.

被联军炸弹和子弹杀死的人中有 24 人（对象是 12 岁以下的儿童。

And with that the survey was over.

调查就这样结束了。

Five days and counting.

五天，还在继续。

Tonight, the newest polls, the latest trends, and breaking developments from the campaign trail.

今晚，最新民意调查、最新趋势以及竞选活动的重大进展。

On America's News live.

美国新闻直播。

This is Fox Evening News, October 28th, 2004, on the day of the results of Les's survey, that just shy of 100,000 Iraqis had died as a result of the war, were released.

这是《福克斯晚间新闻》，2004年10月28日，莱斯的调查结果公布的当天，即近10万伊拉克人因战争而死亡。

Les had not even considered the Fallujah data in coming up with this number.

莱斯在得出这个数字时甚至没有考虑费卢杰的数据。

Fallujah had so many deaths, it was too much of a statistical outlier to even include.

费卢杰的死亡人数如此之多，统计上的异常值甚至无法包括在内。

Fox never mentioned the study.

福克斯从未提及这项研究。

Neither did ABC or CBS.

美国广播公司（ABC）或哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）也没有。

The only national network that carried the story was NBC for 21 seconds.

唯一报道该故事的全国性网络是 NBC，时长为 21 秒。

Tom, thanks.

汤姆，谢谢。

And we begin here with Iraq watch tonight, and one measure of the high cost of war.

我们从今晚的伊拉克观察开始，这是衡量战争高昂成本的一个指标。

A new study from Johns Hopkins University estimates that 100,000 Iraqi civilians have died since the start of the war.

约翰·霍普金斯大学的一项新研究估计，自战争爆发以来已有 10 万伊拉克平民死亡。

The majority as a result of US air strikes.

大部分是美国空袭造成的。

This is a much larger figure than some previous estimates.

这个数字比之前的一些估计要大得多。

The Pentagon had no comment on the number, but said it had taken great care to prevent civilian deaths.

五角大楼没有对这一数字发表评论，但表示已采取极大措施防止平民死亡。

And there is--

还有——

Morning Edition and All Things Considered on NPR devoted 45 seconds to the story.

NPR 的《早间版》和《All Things Thoughts》用了 45 秒的时间来报道这个故事。

It didn't make the front page of the New York Times, the Washington Post or any national newspaper.

它没有登上《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》或任何全国性报纸的头版。

The Iraq study had provided information about the war that up until that point no one had been able to provide.

伊拉克研究提供了迄今为止无人能够提供的有关战争的信息。

The number it gave was much higher than anyone would have expected.

它给出的数字远高于任何人的预期。

It was just as accurate as Les's previous studies in Africa that he had done using the exact same methods.

这与莱斯之前在非洲所做的研究一样准确，他使用了完全相同的方法。

And which were widely reported in the press and quoted by lawmakers.

这些内容被媒体广泛报道并被立法者引用。

His Congo study was page one in the New York Times.

他对刚果的研究登上了《纽约时报》的第一版。

The only differences with this study where that he'd risked his life to do it and it was about Iraq, which, if anything, should have made it more interesting to the media.

与这项研究的唯一不同之处在于，他冒着生命危险进行这项研究，而且是关于伊拉克的，如果有的话，这应该会让媒体更感兴趣。

So why didn't it get any press?

那么为什么它没有得到任何媒体报道呢？

Partly, it was the timing.

部分原因在于时机。

The study came out five days before the US election, and so the media was pretty preoccupied.

该研究在美国大选前五天发布，因此媒体非常关注。

Plus, there was a suspicion that the team had timed the release of the survey specifically to influence the election.

此外，有人怀疑该团队专门安排发布调查的时间来影响选举。

A suspicion that Les didn't really help dispel.

莱斯并没有真正帮助消除这种怀疑。

He said to an AP reporter about the study, quote, "I emailed it on September 30th, under the condition that it come out before the election.

他对美联社记者谈到这项研究时说道，“我于 9 月 30 日通过电子邮件发送了该研究，条件是该研究要在选举前发布。

My motive in doing that was not to skew the election.

我这样做的动机不是为了扭曲选举。

My motive was that if this came out during the campaign, both candidates would be forced to pledge to protect civilian lives in Iraq.

我的动机是，如果在竞选期间出现这种情况，两位候选人都将被迫承诺保护伊拉克平民的生命。

I was opposed to the war, and I still think the war was a bad idea.

我反对战争，而且我仍然认为战争是一个坏主意。

But I think that our science has transcended our perspectives.

但我认为我们的科学已经超越了我们的观点。

As an American, I'm really, really sorry to be reporting this."

作为一名美国人，我真的非常非常遗憾地报道此事。”

One desk editor at a national news organization told me that when the study came out, he sent an email to one of his colleagues saying, The Lancet had, in the past, published some studies with a political slant.

一家全国性新闻机构的一位办公桌编辑告诉我，当这项研究发表时，他给一位同事发了一封电子邮件说，《柳叶刀》过去曾发表过一些带有政治倾向的研究。

But that this study seemed sound, and maybe they should report on it.

但这项研究似乎很合理，也许他们应该对此进行报告。

Then he saw Les's comments, and he didn't follow up.

然后他看到了Les的评论，他就没有再跟进。

This is exactly the type of story that those who believe the media has a liberal bias love to pounce on.

这正是那些认为媒体有自由主义偏见的人喜欢抓住的故事类型。

And so in essence, if the research turns out to be flawed, this desk editor's organization gets the heat for it.

因此，从本质上讲，如果研究结果存在缺陷，这位案头编辑的组织就会受到批评。

He had a very small window of time during a very busy news cycle, to decide whether the study was legit or just an angry and easily debunked researcher pushing an agenda.

在非常繁忙的新闻周期中，他只有很短的时间来决定这项研究是否合法，或者只是一个愤怒且容易被揭穿的研究人员推动的议程。

And Les's comments seemed to be all the evidence he needed.

莱斯的评论似乎就是他所需要的全部证据。

And there was one other thing that made it easy for the media to dismiss the report.

还有一件事让媒体很容易驳回这篇报道。

A researcher at Human Rights Watch, who himself had done studies of civilian casualties during wartime, said he didn't believe the study.

人权观察组织的一名研究员本人曾对战时平民伤亡进行过研究，他表示他不相信这项研究。

The researcher's name was Marc Garlasco, and he told a reporter for The Washington Post, quote, "The number seems high to me." And quote, "It seems like a stretch."

这位研究人员的名字叫马克·加拉斯科（Marc Garlasco），他告诉《华盛顿邮报》记者，“这个数字对我来说似乎很高。”并引用：“这似乎有点牵强。”

I was actually on the Long Island railroad when he called me.

当他打电话给我时，我实际上正在长岛铁路上。

It was some time in the evening, and I had yet to read Les's report.

当时已经是晚上了，我还没有看莱斯的报告。

This is Marc Garlasco.

这是马克·加尔拉斯科。

He said he told the reporter from The Post that he hadn't read the study.

他说他告诉《华盛顿邮报》记者，他没有读过这项研究。

But the reporter said he really needed a quote, and could he just respond to the number.

但记者表示，他确实需要报价，可以直接回复这个号码吗？

Garlasco's quote was cited elsewhere and he appeared on CNN, although none of the study's authors were interviewed on CNN or any of the major networks.

Garlasco 的引述在其他地方被引用，并且他出现在 CNN 上，尽管该研究的作者没有接受 CNN 或任何主要网络的采访。

Here's what Marc Garlasco says now.

这是马克·加拉斯科现在所说的话。

First of all, I'm not a statistician.

首先，我不是统计学家。

I know absolutely nothing about it.

我对此一无所知。

And when I then went and spoke to statisticians they said, well, you know the method that he's using is a really accurate one.

然后当我去与统计学家交谈时，他们说，好吧，你知道他使用的方法非常准确。

This is something that we use in studies all throughout the world, and it's a generally accepted model.

这是我们在世界各地的研究中使用的东西，也是一个普遍接受的模型。

And that kind of made me think about it.

这让我开始思考这个问题。

Think about my prejudices going into reading his report.

想想我在阅读他的报告时的偏见。

Because I had been on the ground, in Iraq, immediately after the war.

因为战后我就在伊拉克实地。

But I also had taken part in the targeting for the war.

但我也参与了战争的瞄准工作。

OK, let's just stop here for one minute.

好的，我们就在这里停一分钟。

You heard what he said.

你听到他说的话了。

He'd taken part in the targeting for the war.

他参与了战争的瞄准工作。

Get ready, because this story's about to take a turn.

做好准备，因为这个故事即将发生转折。

Marc Garlasco isn't your typical human rights advocate.

马克·加尔拉斯科并不是典型的人权倡导者。

Well, I worked in the Pentagon almost seven years.

嗯，我在五角大楼工作了将近七年。

And my last job there was chief of high-value targeting on the joint staff.

我的上一份工作是联合参谋部高价值目标的负责人。

And basically that means that I was one of many people that was involved in the tracking and attempted killing of Saddam Hussein and all those people in the deck of cards.

基本上，这意味着我是参与追踪和企图杀害萨达姆·侯赛因以及所有牌组中的人的众多人之一。

And I would sit there with my compatriots, and we would put x's on buildings one day, and the next day those buildings are gone.

我会和我的同胞们坐在一起，有一天我们会在建筑物上打上“×”，第二天这些建筑物就会消失。

So you were literally in this last invasion?

所以你确实参与了最后一次入侵？

Absolutely.

绝对的。

I was involved in the war planning.

我参与了战争策划。

In January of '03, I was involved in the final targeting of Iraq.

2003 年 1 月，我参与了针对伊拉克的最终目标。

When we put the final target list together, and of course those got brushed up as we got closer to the war.

当我们把最终的目标清单放在一起时，当然，随着战争的临近，这些目标清单也得到了修改。

During the war, I was working 18 hours a day, at least, in the Pentagon.

战争期间，我在五角大楼每天至少工作 18 个小时。

Putting in hours, trying to get and kill Saddam Hussein and others.

投入数小时，试图抓住并杀死萨达姆·侯赛因和其他人。

And after Baghdad fell and then on April 11, I walked out of the Pentagon.

巴格达陷落后，4 月 11 日，我走出了五角大楼。

And it was a Friday.

那是一个星期五。

And then on Monday morning I walked into Human Rights Watch, and suddenly I'm now a human rights advocate.

然后周一早上我走进人权观察，突然之间我就成了一名人权倡导者。

And got on a plane and flew to Iraq to see my handiwork.

然后就坐上了飞机飞往伊拉克去看我的作品。

Literally, it was just the next week.

从字面上看，这只是下周。

Got onto a plane and went to Iraq.

坐上飞机前往伊拉克。

And I was standing there in craters that I had helped cause.

我正站在我一手造成的弹坑里。

Marc doesn't see moving from the Pentagon to a human rights nonprofit as the 180 degree flip most people might.

马克并不认为会像大多数人那样 180 度大转变，从五角大楼转向人权非营利组织。

He says all he's ever wanted to do is fight bad guys and both organizations do that, just in different ways.

他说他一直想做的就是打击坏人，两个组织都这样做，只是方式不同。

He'd been thinking about leaving the military before the war began, and he hadn't supported the war himself.

战争开始前他就一直在考虑离开军队，而且他本人并不支持战争。

But he stayed through the fall of Baghdad, because he knew the target set better than anyone else.

但他坚持到了巴格达的陷落，因为他比任何人都更清楚设定的目标。

And he figured if there was going to be a war anyway, it might as well be him targeting the bombs rather than someone else who might not know or care as much as he did.

他认为，如果无论如何都会爆发战争，那么瞄准炸弹的也可能是他，而不是其他可能不像他那么了解或关心的人。

The thing that finally prompted him to leave, he says, didn't have anything to do with the war.

他说，最终促使他离开的事情与战争无关。

His wife got a great job offer at the Bronx zoo, and they'd always wanted to move back to New York.

他的妻子在布朗克斯动物园找到了一份很好的工作机会，他们一直想搬回纽约。

When Marc went with Human Rights Watch to Iraq, it wasn't to get a comprehensive count of civilian casualties.

当马克随人权观察组织前往伊拉克时，并不是为了全面统计平民伤亡情况。

His mission was to look at specific attacks and see which kinds of attacks caused high civilian death tolls.

他的任务是研究具体的袭击事件，看看哪些类型的袭击造成了较高的平民死亡人数。

Because Marc had planned many of the strikes he was now going to investigate, it was a little complicated.

因为马克计划了他现在要调查的许多袭击事件，所以事情有点复杂。

There was the attack on Chemical Ali in Basra.

巴士拉阿里化学工厂发生袭击事件。

And I'll never forget sitting in this tiny cubicle, in the bowels of the Pentagon, watching it on the television as we had the predator overhead.

我永远不会忘记坐在五角大楼内部的这个小隔间里，在电视上观看我们头顶上的掠食者。

And you're watching this black and white screen, because it's a night shot.

你正在观看这个黑白屏幕，因为这是夜间拍摄的。

And anything that's white is hot and black is cold.

任何白色的东西都是热的，黑色的都是冷的。

And we're watching people walking in front of it.

我们看着人们走在它前面。

And all of a sudden, this building just erupts and was gone.

突然之间，这座建筑就爆发了，消失了。

And we watched as bodies flew out of it.

我们看着尸体从里面飞出来。

And you could see the legs kicking in the air like rag dolls.

你可以看到腿像布娃娃一样在空中踢来踢去。

And we just erupted in cheers.

我们爆发出欢呼声。

And we were ecstatic.

我们欣喜若狂。

Here we are.

我们到了。

We killed Chemical Ali.

我们杀死了化学阿里。

This is great.

这太棒了。

And what is it, three weeks later I'm standing in the crater with this 70-year-old man who's got tears in his eyes.

三周后，我和这位眼含泪水的 70 岁老人站在火山口里。

And he's telling me how 17 members of his family, including his grandchildren, were killed.

他告诉我他的 17 名家人，包括他的孙子，是如何被杀害的。

and I still feel very mixed emotions about the whole situation, the whole experience.

我仍然对整个情况、整个经历感到非常复杂的情绪。

What are those mixed emotions on the one side and on the other?

一方面和另一方面的复杂情绪是什么？

Well, on the one side, I feel like I took part in this wholesale slaughter of this guy's family, which is very difficult to swallow.

嗯，一方面，我觉得我参与了这家伙全家的大规模屠杀，这是很难接受的。

But on the other side, I know that we truly, truly did what we could.

但另一方面，我知道我们确实、确实做了我们能做的。

We were going after some very bad people-- war criminals.

我们正在追捕一些非常坏的人——战犯。

Chemical Ali had gassed the Kurds.

化学阿里用毒气毒杀了库尔德人。

He was singularly responsible for thousands of deaths.

他对数千人的死亡负有独特的责任。

And so, he was certainly a legitimate military target.

因此，他无疑是一个合法的军事目标。

But I think this just goes to show how difficult the job really is.

但我认为这恰恰表明了这项工作到底有多么困难。

This is one of those strikes where we did everything right.

这是我们所做的一切都正确的罢工之一。

Where we thought we had the bad guy.

我们以为有坏人的地方。

Where it was weaponeered correctly.

正确使用武器的地方。

And yet, it just was the wrong place to hit at that time and people died for it.

然而，当时它击中的地方是错误的，人们因此而丧命。

The attack had hit the intended buildings, but it also destroyed the two neighboring buildings.

袭击击中了预定的建筑物，但也摧毁了邻近的两座建筑物。

That's where the man's family had died.

那是该男子的家人去世的地方。

Also, Chemical Ali hadn't been in the targeted building anyway.

而且，阿里化工根本就不在目标建筑内。

It's unclear who died there.

目前还不清楚谁死在那里。

Marc went to lots of places in Iraq he'd studied on maps and aerial photographs and heard about from defectors.

马克去了伊拉克的很多地方，他通过地图和航拍照片研究过，也从叛逃者那里听说过这些地方。

And there's no way around this.

这是没有办法解决的。

After all those years of imagining these places, what they must be like, it was exciting to actually be there.

经过这么多年的想象这些地方，它们一定是什么样子，真正来到那里真是令人兴奋。

I was walking through bunkers that I knew about.

我正走过我所熟悉的掩体。

I went to Saddam Hussein's bunker.

我去了萨达姆·侯赛因的地堡。

I went to his family's bunkers.

我去了他家的掩体。

One of my favorite moments was when I actually met one of the bunker builders and hired him as a translator.

我最喜欢的时刻之一是当我真正遇到了一位掩体建造者并聘请他作为翻译时。

And he took us into Sajida's palace.

他带我们去了萨吉达的宫殿。

Sajida was Saddam's wife.

萨吉达是萨达姆的妻子。

And we knew that there was a bunker under the building, and we had targeted it and dropped a weapon into it.

我们知道建筑物下面有一个掩体，我们瞄准了它并向里面扔了一件武器。

And he took me in.

然后他就带我进去了。

And we go into the building.

我们走进大楼。

And I'm seeing the inside for the first time, which had before only been described to me by defectors.

我第一次看到里面的情况，以前只有叛逃者向我描述过。

And here it is and it's this picture that had been painted in my mind.

就在这里，这就是我脑海中描绘的画面。

And we get there and the guy says, now I will walk you down to the bunker.

我们到了那里，那个人说，现在我带你去掩体。

And we walk down to it, and we get to the bunker.

我们走到那里，然后到达掩体。

And when we look down on it from the top, there's a whole as the Penetrator went in through the four floors, straight down into the bunker.

当我们从顶部俯视时，会发现穿透者穿过四层楼，直接进入地堡，形成一个整体。

And he looks at me and he says, whoever did this was a very smart man.

他看着我说，不管是谁干的，他都是一个非常聪明的人。

And I lost it.

我把它弄丢了。

I just completely lost it.

我完全失去了它。

I was like, hey thanks.

我当时想，嘿，谢谢。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

The military denied my request to talk on the record about civilian casualties.

军方拒绝了我公开谈论平民伤亡的请求。

But Marc Garlasco says that civilian casualties are one of the primary factors he and his colleagues considered when planning the war.

但马克·加拉斯科表示，平民伤亡是他和他的同事在规划战争时考虑的主要因素之一。

Say he had a target he wanted to take out.

假设他有一个想要干掉的目标。

The headquarters of the Iraqi Secret Service maybe or one of Saddam's palaces.

可能是伊拉克特勤局的总部，也可能是萨达姆的宫殿之一。

He'd work with the weaponeering guys to figure out how many and which bombs to use, and then--

他会与武器工程人员一起确定要使用多少炸弹以及使用哪些炸弹，然后——

Once that's established, they'll work up these collateral damage estimates and tell you, OK, in this strike 10 people are anticipated to be killed.

一旦确定，他们将计算这些附带损害估计并告诉你，好吧，在这次袭击中预计将有 10 人死亡。

Civilians or 20 civilians or whatever.

平民或 20 名平民或其他什么。

And in this war in Iraq there was a magic number.

在这场伊拉克战争中，有一个神奇的数字。

And the magic number was 30.

神奇的数字是 30。

And for any target where it was anticipated that 30 civilians or more would be killed, it required the signature of either the President or the Secretary of Defense for that strike to actually occur.

对于任何预计会造成 30 名或以上平民死亡的目标，都需要总统或国防部长签字才能真正实施打击。

How was that magic number arrived at?

这个神奇的数字是如何得出的？

Do you know?

你知道吗？

I have absolutely no idea how the magic number came to be 30.

我完全不知道这个神奇的数字是怎么变成 30 的。

A lot of times, when the collateral damage assessment came back too high, they'd try to get it lowered.

很多时候，当附带损害评估结果过高时，他们会试图降低它。

For example, a strike Marc planned early on in the invasion.

例如，马克在入侵初期计划的一次袭击。

An Iraqi division was holed up in a big multi-building convention center in Baghdad, which unfortunately was right across the street from a hospital.

一个伊拉克师躲藏在巴格达一座大型多层建筑会议中心内，不幸的是，该中心就在一家医院的街对面。

Now because of the amount of guys there and the construction of the buildings, we knew that they needed to use 2,000 pound bombs.

现在由于那里的人员数量和建筑物的建造，我们知道他们需要使用 2,000 磅的炸弹。

The problem with this is a 2,000 pound bomb has a very large, destructive radius.

问题是 2,000 磅的炸弹具有非常大的破坏半径。

And it certainly would have enveloped the hospital.

它肯定会笼罩整个医院。

But there are things that you can do, even when you're dropping large munitions, to reduce civilian casualties.

但是，即使在投掷大型弹药时，您也可以采取一些措施来减少平民伤亡。

One of those is to change the angle of attack.

其中之一是改变攻击角度。

And so imagine if you will, a plane is coming in and drops bombs at such an angle that they actually push the debris away from the direction of the hospital.

如果你愿意的话，想象一下，一架飞机飞来并以一定角度投掷炸弹，实际上它们将碎片推离了医院的方向。

Additionally, you put a time delayed fuse on it.

此外，您还可以在其上放置一个延时保险丝。

And, in this case, I think it was maybe five nanoseconds.

而且，在这种情况下，我认为可能是五纳秒。

Which is an incredibly short period of time, but it's enough that it allows the bomb to bury itself in the ground.

这是一段非常短的时间，但足以让炸弹埋入地下。

And what this does is it basically lets the building implode.

这基本上会让建筑物内爆。

And it falls in upon itself and contains a lot of that blast and fragmentation damage that would come out and injure civilians or destroy some of the hospital.

它会自行塌陷，并包含大量爆炸和碎片损坏，这些损坏会导致平民受伤或摧毁医院的部分设施。

And then additionally you're using a penetrating warhead, so it's burying into the ground.

另外，你还使用了穿透弹头，所以它会埋入地下。

So you're not just willy-nilly dropping bombs like in the Second World War.

所以你不会像第二次世界大战那样随意投掷炸弹。

When I got there, I went into the hospital and spoke to the director and all the people in there.

当我到达那里时，我走进医院，与院长和医院里的所有人交谈。

And nothing worse than a few broken windows.

没有什么比几扇破窗户更糟糕的了。

And I was like, wow, this is great.

我当时想，哇，这太棒了。

We did a really good job on this one.

我们在这方面做得非常好。

What got Marc thinking about civilian casualties in the first place, was a battle damage assessment he did after the war in Kosovo.

首先让马克思考平民伤亡问题的是他在科索沃战争后所做的战斗损失评估。

He targeted the bombs for that war.

他为那场战争瞄准了炸弹。

And then afterwards, the military sent him over to see how well he'd done.

后来，军方派他过来看看他表现如何。

He measured how often the bombs hit their targets.

他测量了炸弹击中目标的频率。

Whether they destroyed what they were supposed to destroy.

他们是否摧毁了他们应该摧毁的东西。

Pretty much the only thing he didn't check the accuracy of were the collateral damage assessments.

他唯一没有检查准确性的几乎就是附带损害评估。

That's what got me.

这就是吸引我的原因。

That's what really surprised me.

这才是真正令我惊讶的地方。

At no point in time did we ever have to report back on civilian casualties.

我们从来没有必要报告平民伤亡情况。

And so my question has always been, if the weapons worked correctly, if the targets were correct, shouldn't you also be asking were your civilian casualty estimates correct?

所以我的问题一直是，如果武器工作正常，如果目标正确，你难道不应该问你对平民伤亡的估计是否正确？

Shouldn't that be factored into it, to make sure that your models are accurate?

难道不应该考虑到这一点，以确保您的模型是准确的吗？

Because if your models are not accurate, what are they worth?

因为如果你的模型不准确，它们还有什么价值呢？

Why do you even bother doing it?

你为什么还要费心去做呢？

it's just throwing darts at a board at that point.

那时，它只是向木板上扔飞镖。

Wow.

哇。

Did you ever find out an answer to that question?

你找到这个问题的答案了吗？

No, but it's something that I keep asking the military now that I'm in Human Rights Watch.

不，但自从我加入人权观察以来，我一直在向军方询问这件事。

When I was there I was wondering why isn't it done.

当我在那里时，我想知道为什么没有完成。

And now I asked them why isn't it done, and why don't you do it.

现在我问他们为什么不做，你们为什么不做。

And I guess the answer that I get back just hasn't satisfied me.

我想我得到的答案并不能令我满意。

It's look, we're still fighting a war in Iraq.

看起来，我们仍在伊拉克打仗。

It's really hard to do.

确实很难做到。

Or it's very difficult to account for civilian casualties, for a variety of reasons.

或者，由于各种原因，很难统计平民伤亡情况。

And you get the bureaucratic double-talk.

你会听到官僚主义的双重言论。

And it's just not good enough, because I've been there, and I know that people care and want to do the very best they can.

这还不够好，因为我去过那里，我知道人们关心并希望尽力做到最好。

And they don't want to kill civilians.

他们不想杀害平民。

And here's an opportunity to really make a difference, and to show that you're doing your utmost best to make sure that you're upholding the Geneva Convention and not killing people unnecessarily.

这是一个真正发挥作用的机会，并表明您正在尽最大努力确保维护《日内瓦公约》，而不是不必要地杀人。

In talking to people in the military, off the record, I heard a couple of arguments against counting civilian deaths.

在与军方人士私下交谈时，我听到了一些反对计算平民死亡人数的论点。

First they say, it's not the military's job.

首先他们说，这不是军队的工作。

What you're trying to do is win a battle.

你要做的就是赢得一场战斗。

It could be a dangerous, and in the long run, counterproductive distraction to worry about counting all the civilians you accidentally kill along the way.

担心计算沿途意外杀死的所有平民可能是一种危险的、从长远来看会适得其反的分心。

Second, and perhaps more persuasively, they say no one would believe them anyway.

其次，也许更有说服力的是，他们说无论如何没有人会相信他们。

Just ask Les Roberts.

只要问问莱斯·罗伯茨就知道了。

Even though Les's study didn't get much mainstream attention, it did provoke, like so many things these days, a bitter debate on the internet.

尽管莱斯的研究没有引起主流关注，但它确实像当今的许多事情一样在互联网上引发了激烈的争论。

The attacks came mainly, though not exclusively, from right-wing blogs.

这些攻击主要（但并非全部）来自右翼博客。

Several charges leveled at the study were simply untrue, and seemed designed to willfully muddy the waters.

针对这项研究的几项指控根本不属实，而且似乎是故意搅浑水。

For example, there was a claim repeatedly made, both in the press and online, that the data weren't random because the researchers had been blocked from going certain places.

例如，媒体和网上不断有人声称这些数据不是随机的，因为研究人员被禁止前往某些地方。

Or had decided against certain places because it was too dangerous.

或者因为太危险而决定不去某些地方。

This is simply false.

这根本就是错误的。

A couple of people suggested that the researchers had gone to Fallujah, on purpose, to boost their numbers, even though exactly the opposite was true.

一些人认为研究人员是故意前往费卢杰的，以增加他们的数量，尽管事实恰恰相反。

Les had wanted to skip Fallujah altogether, and they hadn't even included the data in their final casualty estimate.

莱斯原本想完全跳过费卢杰，他们甚至没有将这些数据纳入最终的伤亡估计中。

Several objections had merit though.

不过，一些反对意见也有其道理。

First of all, the study makes no distinction between combatants and civilians.

首先，该研究没有区分战斗人员和平民。

Les actually acknowledged this in the study itself, and went to great lengths not to claim, as others did on his behalf, that the study was a measure of civilian mortality.

莱斯实际上在研究本身中承认了这一点，并且竭尽全力不像其他人代表他那样声称这项研究是对平民死亡率的衡量。

Certainly some of the people the Coalition killed, they intended to kill.

当然，联盟杀害的一些人是他们有意杀害的。

But half of all the casualties were women and children, so even in the unlikely event that 50% of the men who died were actually fighting us, it's still a large number of innocents.

但所有伤亡者中有一半是妇女和儿童，所以即使在不太可能发生的情况下，50% 的死者实际上是在与我们作战，但仍然有大量无辜者。

The critique that got most traction on the internet though has to do with something called the confidence interval.

不过，在互联网上最受关注的批评与所谓的置信区间有关。

Let's take an election poll as an example.

让我们以选举民意调查为例。

Candidate X is projected to receive 55% of the vote.

候选人 X 预计将获得 55% 的选票。

What that really means is that he's projected to receive some percentage within two numbers, let's say 52% and 58%.

这真正意味着他预计会获得两个数字之间的某个百分比，比如说 52% 和 58%。

That range is called the confidence interval.

该范围称为置信区间。

The confidence interval in Les's survey was very wide, between 8,000 and 194,000.

Les 调查的置信区间非常宽，在 8,000 到 194,000 之间。

It was this wide for a lot of reasons, but mainly because the sample is relatively small relative to the population.

之所以如此广泛，有很多原因，但主要是因为样本相对于总体来说相对较小。

And because violent death, unlike death due to malaria or diarrhea, isn't very uniformly distributed.

而且因为与疟疾或腹泻导致的死亡不同，暴力死亡的分布并不十分均匀。

So you have Kurdish areas where mortality actually went down during the war, versus Fallujah, which averaged almost two violent deaths per household.

因此，库尔德地区的死亡率在战争期间实际上有所下降，而费卢杰则平均每个家庭几乎有两人因暴力死亡。

Such a wide confidence interval means that, statistically speaking, Les's estimate of 100,000 dead isn't very precise.

如此宽的置信区间意味着，从统计角度来看，Les 对 100,000 人死亡的估计并不十分准确。

The number could be thousands or tens of thousands smaller or equally likely, bigger.

这个数字可能小数千或数万，也可能更大。

But a lot of people made wrong conclusions from the wide confidence interval.

但很多人从宽置信区间得出了错误的结论。

They interpreted it to mean it was just as likely that 8,000 people had died as it was that 100,000 had.

他们将其解释为意味着 8,000 人死亡的可能性与 100,000 人死亡的可能性相同。

The online magazine Slate wrote, This isn't an estimate.

在线杂志 Slate 写道：这不是估计。

It's a dart board.

这是一个飞镖盘。

In fact, the likelihood follows a bell curve, with 98,000 being at the top of the bell, the most likely number.

事实上，可能性遵循钟形曲线，98,000 位于钟形顶部，是最有可能的数字。

So actually, there's only a 2.5% chance that the number is 8,000 or below.

所以实际上，该数字为 8,000 或以下的可能性只有 2.5%。

But a 90% chance that it's 44,000 or above.

但有 90% 的可能性是 44,000 或以上。

Here's Les.

这是莱斯。

A couple of people told me that that Sunday before the election their minister from the pulpit had said, this study in The Lancet was flawed and wrong.

有几个人告诉我，选举前的那个周日，他们的牧师在讲坛上说过，《柳叶刀》上的这项研究是有缺陷和错误的。

And my next door neighbor, who was listening to talk radio, spoke to me the day of the election.

选举当天，我的隔壁邻居正在听谈话广播，并与我交谈。

And she said, well I just heard on talk radio today that The Lancet study finding 8,000 Iraqi deaths was flawed and wrong.

她说，好吧，我今天刚刚在电台谈话节目中听到，《柳叶刀》的研究发现 8,000 名伊拉克人死亡，这是有缺陷和错误的。

And so it was discussed, but I don't think it was discussed in a very sort of scientifically rigorous process.

所以它被讨论了，但我不认为它是在一个非常科学严谨的过程中讨论的。

Clearly, the people on talk radio weren't attacking the study out of a commitment to experimental rigor.

显然，谈话电台的人们并不是出于对实验严谨性的承诺而攻击这项研究。

They were attacking it for the same reason that the news media was hesitant to report it.

他们攻击它的原因与新闻媒体犹豫是否报道它的原因相同。

Because the very act of counting civilian casualties is political.

因为统计平民伤亡的行为本身就是政治性的。

The moral logic of war is this.

战争的道德逻辑就是这样。

We're willing to undergo x number of costs in lives, money, resources to accomplish some goal.

为了实现某个目标，我们愿意付出x数量的生命、金钱、资源成本。

The goal, we hope, will be worth it in the end.

我们希望这个目标最终是值得的。

So assuming the goal in Iraq is good, is it wrong to kill 100,000 civilians?

那么假设伊拉克的目标是好的，那么杀死10万平民是错误的吗？

Saddam himself probably killed 230,000 of his own people.

萨达姆本人可能杀害了23万自己的同胞。

A number, by the way, no one seems to go out of their way to dispute.

顺便说一句，似乎没有人会特意去争论这个数字。

If you add the million or so lives he lost in the futile war he launched against Iran, 100,000 seems like a bargain in comparison.

如果算上他在对伊朗发起的这场徒劳的战争中失去的大约一百万人的生命，相比之下，十万人似乎很划算。

Maybe he would have gone on another killing spree, and this 100,000 is insurance against the later, far worse death toll.

也许他会再次疯狂杀戮，而这 100,000 人是防止后来更加严重的死亡人数的保险。

Or maybe 100,000 lives is worth it, if in the end democracy does blossom through the Middle East.

或者，如果民主最终能够在中东开花结果，也许十万人的生命是值得的。

After all, we killed far more Japanese with just two atomic bombs than, according to Les, we did in a year and a half in Iraq.

毕竟，根据莱斯的说法，我们仅仅用两颗原子弹杀死的日本人就比我们在伊拉克一年半的时间里杀死的日本人还要多。

If we don't count civilian casualties, we don't have to get into this kind of horrible math.

如果我们不计算平民伤亡，我们就不必进行这种可怕的数学计算。

And most of us don't want to.

而我们大多数人都不愿意。

So instead, we leave it to the professionals.

因此，我们将其留给专业人士。

The military are the only ones who even try to come up with a formula, the collateral damage assessment.

军方是唯一尝试提出附带损害评估公式的人。

30 dead civilians for one bad guy.

一名坏人导致 30 名平民死亡。

For Les, he doesn't really care who counts, just so long as someone does.

对于莱斯来说，他并不真正关心谁重要，只要有人重要就行。

Under the Geneva Conventions, an occupying army's relationship to the occupied is roughly the same as a police department's relationship to its population.

根据《日内瓦公约》，占领军与被占领者的关系大致相当于警察部门与其民众的关系。

And in my hometown, if a policeman pulls out his gun and shoots six shots at someone, another policeman will come and try to find where each of those six bullets landed and decide, was this excessive use of force.

在我的家乡，如果一名警察拔出枪，向某人开了六枪，另一名警察就会过来，试图找出这六颗子弹的每一颗落在哪里，并决定是否过度使用武力。

And well, how can we say that we are really looking after the well being of the Iraqi folks, people, if we don't sort of go through some sort of minimal effort to decide what are we doing to them, and what can we do to limit the adverse consequences.

好吧，如果我们不通过某种最小的努力来决定我们对他们做什么，以及我们能做些什么来限制不利后果，我们怎么能说我们真正关心伊拉克人民的福祉呢？

One of the most surprising things Les discovered in Iraq is that, despite what everyone says about the difficulty of counting civilian casualties during wartime, it's actually not that hard.

莱斯在伊拉克发现的最令人惊讶的事情之一是，尽管每个人都说战时统计平民伤亡很困难，但实际上并不那么困难。

The survey teams got participation rates that most American pollsters would kill for.

调查小组得到的参与率是大多数美国民意调查机构所渴望的。

Only 5 of the 988 households the team surveyed refused to answer the questions.

团队调查的988户家庭中，只有5户拒绝回答问题。

And people were able to provide death certificates over 80% of the time.

超过 80% 的情况下人们能够提供死亡证明。

That confidence interval, Les is sure that based on the results of the first survey and with a little more money-- remember, this whole thing cost only $40,000-- he could design a follow-up survey that would narrow that interval way down.

对于这个置信区间，Les 确信，根据第一次调查的结果，再加上一点钱——记住，整个事情只花费了 40,000 美元——他可以设计一项后续调查，从而大大缩小这个区间。

We can count civilian casualties in wartime.

我们可以统计战时的平民伤亡情况。

We just have to want to.

我们只需要愿意。

Alex Blumberg.

亚历克斯·布隆伯格。

Coming up, so a military that's trying as hard as it can not to kill civilians makes a mistake.

即将到来，因此，一支竭尽全力不杀害平民的军队犯了一个错误。

What do they do then.

那他们怎么办呢。

Well, we have a recording of what they do then.

好吧，我们有他们当时所做的事情的记录。

Also, we take a look at the new Lancet study.

另外，我们来看看新的《柳叶刀》研究。

The sequel to the one you just heard about.

您刚刚听说的那部作品的续集。

It just came out two weeks ago.

它两周前刚刚发布。

That's in a minute.

就在一分钟之内。

From Chicago Public Radio and Public Radio International, when our program continues.

当我们的节目继续进行时，来自芝加哥公共广播电台和国际公共广播电台。

Well it's This American Life, I'm Ira Glass.

好吧，这就是《美国生活》，我是艾拉·格拉斯。

Each week on our program we choose some theme, bring you a variety of different kinds of stories on that theme.

每周我们的节目都会选择一些主题，为您带来有关该主题的各种不同类型的故事。

Today's show, What's in a Number.

今天的节目《数字里有什么》。

In Act One of our show, we heard about the number of Iraqi deaths that occurred in the first year and a half after the US invasion.

在我们节目的第一幕中，我们了解到美国入侵后一年半内伊拉克人的死亡人数。

And this is no longer true in Iraq, but at the time, according to this Johns Hopkins Study we were talking about, the majority of deaths were caused by the US-led forces.

在伊拉克，情况已不再如此，但当时，根据我们正在谈论的约翰·霍普金斯大学的这项研究，大多数死亡是由美国领导的部队造成的。

Despite everything they did to avoid Iraqi deaths.

尽管他们竭尽全力避免伊拉克人死亡。

Well, now we're going to move to Act Two, where we hear US forces trying to cope in the aftermath of some of those deaths.

好吧，现在我们要进入第二幕，在那里我们听到美军试图应对其中一些死亡事件的后果。

This is Act Two, Not Just a Number.

这是第二幕，而不仅仅是一个数字。

The civilian deaths, in this particular story came at a unusually bad time for Captain Ryan Gist.

在这个特殊的故事中，平民的死亡对于瑞安·吉斯特上尉来说是在一个异常糟糕的时刻。

He was the American officer in charge of the US Army presence in a section of the Nineveh and Salahuddin provinces in Iraq, a Sunni area.

他是负责驻扎在伊拉克尼尼微省和萨拉赫丁省部分逊尼派地区的美军的美国军官。

And this meant that he dealt with everything from seeing that the region had water and fuel to dislodging insurgents and winning over the local population.

这意味着他要处理一切事情，从确保该地区有水和燃料到驱逐叛乱分子和赢得当地民众的支持。

He faced all sorts of problems.

他面临着各种各样的问题。

On November 10th, 2004, for example, insurgents blew up most of the police stations in this area.

例如，2004年11月10日，叛乱分子炸毁了该地区的大部分警察局。

And the next day, Iraqi Army and police simply stopped showing up for their jobs.

第二天，伊拉克军队和警察就不再上班了。

One town called Atha was especially troublesome.

一个叫阿萨的城镇尤其麻烦。

The US had not made many allies there.

美国在那里没有结交很多盟友。

And it was turning into probably the greatest threat to stability in our region.

它可能正在成为对我们地区稳定的最大威胁。

So to begin with, we knew we were going into a very hot spot.

首先，我们知道我们将进入一个非常热点的领域。

So we went in.

于是我们就进去了。

And for weeks we'd go in there and we would try to talk to leaders, try and talk to people, and they were scared.

几周来，我们走进那里，尝试与领导者交谈，尝试与人们交谈，但他们很害怕。

The terrorists literally had a grip on everybody.

恐怖分子确实控制了所有人。

And that is the challenge in Iraq.

这就是伊拉克面临的挑战。

And what it takes is just feet on the ground, every day, going to different houses and just talking to people.

所需要的只是脚踏实地，每天去不同的房子，与人们交谈。

And finally we found someone whose family had been killed-- every one of them had been killed by the terrorists within the last month-- and he wanted revenge.

最后我们找到了一个人，他的家人都被杀了——上个月他们全家都被恐怖分子杀害了——他想要报仇。

And he wanted to see his town free of this threat.

他希望看到他的城镇摆脱这种威胁。

So the guy gives him names and locations of people that he identifies as insurgents.

于是，那家伙给了他他认为是叛乱分子的人的姓名和位置。

And the army launches an operation to get those people.

军队发起行动来抓捕这些人。

And this is where things went wrong.

这就是问题所在。

As part of this operation, the US forces were supposed to drop a bomb into a nearby field, just as a show of force.

作为这次行动的一部分，美军应该向附近的田野投掷一枚炸弹，以展示武力。

But instead, the bomb was dropped onto the house that the army was just about to raid, killing 12 people inside, including children.

但炸弹却落到了军队正要突袭的房子上，炸死了里面的 12 人，其中包括儿童。

And nearly killing the US troops who were about to go in.

还险些杀掉准备进去的美军。

That's according to an American photojournalist, Sheryl Mendez, who was there.

这是当时在场的美国摄影记者谢丽尔·门德斯 (Sheryl Mendez) 的说法。

In addition to the human tragedy of these deaths, for Captain Gist this could not have been worse.

除了这些死亡造成的人类悲剧之外，对于吉斯特船长来说，这再糟糕不过了。

It was the hardest time of my life.

那是我一生中最艰难的时期。

And the most difficult part for us was in the weeks afterwards.

对我们来说最困难的部分是之后的几周。

We have to show that it was an accident.

我们必须证明这是一次意外。

And that we are someone who can be trusted, and we are here to help them.

我们是值得信赖的人，我们是来帮助他们的。

The photographer, Sheryl Mendez, tape-recorded him as he went to the sheiks, who were the local leaders and to the police, as he went around trying to make things right.

摄影师谢丽尔·门德斯（Sheryl Mendez）用录音记录了他去找当地领袖酋长和警察的过程，以及他到处试图纠正事情的过程。

Here's one of those recordings.

这是其中一段录音。

He's in a police station.

他在警察局。

I'm here for a couple reasons today.

我今天来这里有几个原因。

The first reason is to express my regrets to you.

第一个原因是想向您表达我的歉意。

[SPEAKING ARABIC] Captain Ryan Gist I feel much pain in my heart for what happened.

[阿拉伯语] Ryan Gist 船长 对于所发生的事情我感到非常痛苦。

[SPEAKING ARABIC] Captain Ryan Gist We did not intend to hurt any innocent people here.

[阿拉伯语] Ryan Gist 队长 我们无意伤害这里任何无辜的人。

[SPEAKING ARABIC] Captain Ryan Gist We did not mean for any women and children to die.

[阿拉伯语] Ryan Gist 上尉 我们并不想让任何妇女和儿童死去。

[SPEAKING ARABIC] Captain Ryan Gist I had men hurt in the explosion as well.

[阿拉伯语] Ryan Gist 上尉 我也有人在爆炸中受伤。

[SPEAKING ARABIC] Captain Ryan Gist You're sitting there in a room with five, six, seven people that are definitely angry at you.

[说阿拉伯语] Ryan Gist 队长 你坐在一个房间里，周围有五、六、七个人，他们肯定对你很生气。

They believe you did it intentionally.

他们相信你是故意的。

That hate you for being in the town in the first place.

他们一开始就讨厌你在城里。

And I know that we cannot bring them back.

我知道我们无法让他们回来。

Only Allah can do that.

只有真主才能做到这一点。

[SPEAKING ARABIC] Captain Ryan Gist But I hope to be able to help with the healing process.

[说阿拉伯语] Ryan Gist 队长 但我希望能够帮助康复过程。

[SPEAKING ARABIC] Captain Ryan Gist I'm also here to ensure this does not destroy the relationship we've established with people of Atha.

[阿拉伯语] Ryan Gist 上尉 我来这里也是为了确保这不会破坏我们与阿塔人民建立的关系。

[SPEAKING ARABIC] Captain Ryan Gist I know there's a lot to do to rebuild this relationship, and this is my first step.

[说阿拉伯语] Ryan Gist 队长 我知道要重建这种关系还有很多工作要做，这是我的第一步。

But it's also very important that I get all the facts here.

但我在这里了解所有事实也非常重要。

Right now I have 12 names of those who were killed and three that were wounded.

现在我掌握了 12 名遇难者和 3 名受伤者的名字。

So I think I'm missing one here.

所以我想我这里缺少一个。

It just seems like such an incredibly awkward thing you're having to do.

这似乎是你不得不做的一件非常尴尬的事情。

I don't think awkward is at all the word you would use to describe something like this.

我认为“尴尬”这个词根本不适合用来形容这样的事情。

It was possibly most emotional event of my life.

这可能是我一生中最激动人心的事件。

Going out and dealing with these people in such incredible grief.

带着难以置信的悲伤走出去与这些人打交道。

Aziseh.

阿齐塞。

Ira Glass What happened after that?

艾拉·格拉斯 那之后发生了什么？

The way it works in the in the Arabic culture is, there's about a seven to ten day mourning period or grieving period after the death.

它在阿拉伯文化中的运作方式是，死后大约有七到十天的哀悼期或悲伤期。

So of course, I wanted to go in there.

所以我当然想去那里。

We're Americans.

我们是美国人。

We want to go in.

我们想进去。

We want to fix it immediately.

我们想立即修复它。

I wanted to go in there and make the payments to the families, and talk to them and express our regrets.

我想去那里向家人付款，与他们交谈并表达我们的遗憾。

So the hardest thing for me was I couldn't go into the town for seven days.

所以对我来说最困难的是我7天不能进城。

So it was incredibly difficult for me.

所以这对我来说非常困难。

Because during those seven to ten days, you're thinking these people are deciding they hate us.

因为在那七到十天里，你会认为这些人决定讨厌我们。

And they're spreading word about how we killed these people.

他们正在散布关于我们如何杀害这些人的消息。

It's just the worst thing, from a propaganda point of view and winning over people's hearts.

从宣传和赢得人心的角度来看，这是最糟糕的事情。

That's what your fear is.

这就是你的恐惧所在。

Well, that's part of the fear, but also I'm a human being.

嗯，这是恐惧的一部分，但我也是一个人。

I'm an American.

我是美国人。

I want to get in there.

我想进去。

And I want these people to understand that we are good people, and we're here to help them.

我希望这些人明白我们是好人，我们是来帮助他们的。

Yeah.

是的。

Captain Ryan Gist So really, at that point, I'm sure you can hear it in my voice there.

瑞安·吉斯特上尉 所以说真的，在这一点上，我相信你可以从我的声音中听到这一点。

Is that I know I can't fix it.

我知道我无法修复它。

I know I can't bring them back, but I want to make it better.

我知道我无法让他们回来，但我想让他们变得更好。

But out of respect, we waited seven to ten days.

但出于尊重，我们等了七到十天。

We went to neighboring towns and villages and told them what was going on and got the message out.

我们去了邻近的城镇和村庄，告诉他们发生了什么事，并传达了信息。

And I know the message got to the people in the town.

我知道镇上的人们都知道了这个信息。

But then the following three weeks we went in and did exactly what we were doing before-- it was eet with people, and begin to develop or rebuild relationships.

但接下来的三周，我们进去并做了我们之前所做的事情——与人们会面，并开始发展或重建关系。

And we continue to conduct operations, continued to pull bad guys out of the town.

而我们继续开展行动，继续将坏人赶出小镇。

This is pretty much the standard way that he'd operated in these villages.

这几乎是他在这些村庄里做事的标准方式。

He says, sure, there were some villages and local leaders who were sympathetic with the insurgents.

他说，当然，有一些村庄和地方领导人同情叛乱分子。

But in other places, they were being bossed around by them.

但在其他地方，却被他们摆布。

A couple of terrorists who intimidated the leaders of that village could effectively control the entire village.

几个恐吓村里领导的恐怖分子就可以有效控制整个村子。

People were scared to leave their houses.

人们害怕离开家园。

Kids stayed in the houses.

孩子们住在房子里。

Kids didn't go to school.

孩子们没有去上学。

So when you went in, and you took those guys out.

所以当你进去的时候，你就把那些人带了出去。

And you came back and said, hey, I just caught this guy, this guy, and this guy.

然后你回来说，嘿，我刚刚抓住了这个人，这个人，还有这个人。

And I found all kinds of explosives, threat CD's, beheading CD's in their house, they're gone.

我在他们家里发现了各种爆炸物、威胁CD、斩首CD，都不见了。

They're never coming back.

他们永远不会回来了。

And the most incredible thing was, you saw the change within a day.

最令人难以置信的是，你在一天之内就看到了变化。

Within 24, 48 hours you would go back into that town, in a town where kids would not even wave to you or kids throw rocks at you.

24、48小时之内，你就会回到那个小镇，在那个小镇里，孩子们甚至不会向你挥手，或者向你扔石头。

You'd go in the next day and they would be crowded around the humvees, just wanting to touch you or talk to you.

第二天你进去时，他们会挤在悍马车周围，只是想触摸你或与你交谈。

In Atha, he says, people waited to see who was going to win, the US-led forces or the insurgents.

他说，在阿塔，人们等着看谁会获胜，是美国领导的军队还是叛乱分子。

Until there came a turning point.

直到一个转折点出现。

There was a distinct turning point.

有一个明显的转折点。

The turning point was when the sheik of the town came to see me.

转折点是镇上的酋长来看我的时候。

Which would never have happened before.

这在以前是绝对不会发生的。

And do you remember what he said at the beginning so as to explain?

你还记得他一开始所说的话来解释吗？

What do you remember of what he said?

他说的话你还记得什么？

What he said was, I need your help.

他说的是，我需要你的帮助。

And that was it right there.

就是这样。

I knew what was going to come after that.

我知道之后会发生什么。

Just thinking about that accidental bombing, the way that it ended up working out, did that accidental bombing actually give you access to people and a way to meet with them, and a reason to meet with them that you might not have had otherwise?

想想那次意外爆炸事件，以及它最终的结果，那次意外爆炸事件是否真的让你有机会接触到人们，并有机会与他们会面，以及一个你本来可能没有的与他们会面的理由？

It wasn't that it gave us a reason to.

这并不是说它给了我们这样做的理由。

We had a reason to, as we were going to be in the town, regardless.

我们有理由这样做，因为无论如何我们都会去城里。

But it forced them to listen to us, because they were so hurt by the incident.

但这迫使他们听我们的，因为他们被这件事深深伤害了。

And they began to understand what we were there for.

他们开始明白我们来这里的目的。

And they eventually offered us forgiveness and asked for our help.

他们最终向我们表示宽恕并请求我们的帮助。

And to this day, I probably have the strongest bond with that town than any other town over there.

直到今天，我与那个小镇的联系可能比那里的任何其他小镇都最牢固。

Captain Ryan Gist.

瑞恩·吉斯特船长。

He left the military in the Fall of 2006.

他于 2006 年秋天离开军队。

He's now a law student at the University of Wisconsin.

他现在是威斯康星大学法律系的学生。

Though he still stays in touch, by email, with the Iraqis he knew in Atha.

不过，他仍然通过电子邮件与他在阿塔认识的伊拉克人保持联系。

Act Three, The War This Time.

第三幕，这次的战争。

So a couple of weeks ago, the Lancet published another study of deaths in Iraq by the same research team who did the earlier study.

因此，几周前，《柳叶刀》发表了另一项关于伊拉克死亡人数的研究，该研究的作者是进行早期研究的同一研究小组。

This time, the number of deaths that they came up with was seen as even more astounding than the first study's number.

这一次，他们得出的死亡人数比第一项研究的数字更加令人震惊。

Over 650,000 extra deaths because of the war.

战争造成超过 650,000 人额外死亡。

601,000 of those due to violence.

其中 601,000 人死于暴力。

This second study got slightly more coverage than the first study.

第二项研究的覆盖范围比第一项研究略多。

A reporter even asked President Bush about it.

有记者甚至向布什总统询问此事。

Our producer, Alex Blumberg, examined the debate over this new study.

我们的制片人亚历克斯·布隆伯格（Alex Blumberg）审视了有关这项新研究的争论。

And he called various statisticians and epidemiologists who looked at study.

他还打电话给多位统计学家和流行病学家进行研究。

Well, if anything, the methodology is sounder in this study than it was in the last study.

好吧，如果有什么不同的话，那就是这项研究的方法比上一项研究更合理。

A lot of the critiques that were leveled at the last study could not be leveled at this study.

上一项研究中提出的许多批评在本研究中无法得到体现。

For instance?

例如？

Alex Blumberg For instance, one of the biggest critiques of the last study was that it had a very wide confidence interval.

Alex Blumberg 例如，对上一项研究最大的批评之一是它的置信区间非常宽。

And in this study, the confidence interval is much narrower, because they went to a lot more places.

在这项研究中，置信区间要窄得多，因为他们去了更多的地方。

In this survey they went to 1,850 households total.

在这次调查中，他们总共去了 1,850 个家庭。

And the first study, they went to only 988 households.

第一项研究，他们只调查了 988 户家庭。

So the critiques that you've seen of this study, are there criticisms of this study or questions about this study that seem particularly compelling though?

那么，您所看到的对这项研究的批评，是否有对这项研究的批评或关于这项研究的问题似乎特别引人注目？

Everybody I talk to said that if you're doing this in a lab, you would do it differently.

与我交谈过的每个人都说，如果你在实验室里做这件事，你会采取不同的做法。

But almost everybody agreed that given that they were doing this in a war zone, the methodology was as sound as it could possibly be.

但几乎所有人都同意，考虑到他们是在战区做这件事，这种方法是尽可能合理的。

And it's hard to imagine that any sort of bias that crept into the methodology could have accounted for a several hundred thousand person overcount.

很难想象这种方法中出现的任何偏见都会导致数十万人的多算。

The fact of the number is so shocking to people who know about this stuff, that that's been the basis of criticism.

这个数字的事实对于了解此事的人来说是如此令人震惊，这成为了批评的基础。

And from groups that you would think would be sort of aligned with the Lancet's results.

来自您认为与《柳叶刀》的结果有些一致的团体。

In other words, this group called Iraq Body Count.

换句话说，这个组织称为“伊拉克死亡人数统计”。

This is a group that's basically trying to do the same thing that these researchers are doing.

这个小组基本上正在尝试做与这些研究人员正在做的事情相同的事情。

Since the beginning of the war, they've been documenting every news report of where civilians are reported killed.

自战争开始以来，他们一直在记录每一篇有关平民被杀的新闻报道。

And they've been keeping a running tally.

他们一直在记录。

And then, as the war progressed, and as they got more sophisticated, they started incorporating Baghdad morgue data into their into their tallies.

然后，随着战争的进展，随着他们变得更加复杂，他们开始将巴格达太平间的数据纳入他们的统计中。

And they've also started keeping hospital records.

他们还开始保存医院记录。

And the number they have on their website is around 50,000 civilians dead.

他们网站上的数字是大约 50,000 名平民死亡。

That's their computation based on these methods.

这就是他们基于这些方法的计算。

Based on these methods.

基于这些方法。

Right, exactly.

对，完全正确。

Which is less than a tenth of what this Lancet survey is saying they came up with.

这还不到《柳叶刀》调查显示的十分之一。

And they admit that they're doing an undercount.

他们承认他们的统计数据少了。

They admit that not every death is reported in the press, and that there's problems with the morgue reporting.

他们承认媒体并没有报道每起死亡事件，而且太平间的报道也存在问题。

So they know that they're under, but they don't think they're under by this much.

所以他们知道自己处于劣势，但他们不认为自己处于劣势这么多。

So they came out with a detailed response on their website, and it's very compelling to look at.

因此他们在网站上做出了详细的回应，非常引人注目。

For instance.

例如。

Alex Blumberg So one of the things that they do is they dig into the data.

Alex Blumberg 所以他们所做的事情之一就是挖掘数据。

And so, they sort of go into the Lancet study and they say, on average, in the first half of 2006, according to the Lancet , 1,000 Iraqis have been violently killed every single day.

因此，他们进入了《柳叶刀》的研究，他们说，据《柳叶刀》报道，2006 年上半年平均每天有 1,000 名伊拉克人被暴力杀害。

With less than a tenth of them being noticed by any public surveillance mechanisms.

其中只有不到十分之一被任何公共监视机制注意到。

They're not showing up in the morgue.

他们没有出现在太平间。

They're not showing up in the press.

他们没有出现在媒体上。

Nothing.

没有什么。

They're not showing up in the morgue.

他们没有出现在太平间。

Or they're not being reported by the morgue.

或者太平间没有报告它们。

They're not being reported by the Ministry of Health.

卫生部没有报告这些情况。

They're not being documented in press accounts.

它们没有被记录在新闻报道中。

Right.

正确的。

Alex Blumberg And then they sort of go on further, because the Lancet breaks down how people die.

亚历克斯·布隆伯格（Alex Blumberg）然后他们又继续前进，因为《柳叶刀》详细分析了人们的死亡方式。

Of gunshot wounds, which they say that's very likely.

枪伤，他们说这很有可能。

It's very possible that you could miss a lot of the gunshot wounds, if somebody is being killed execution style and dumped in a river somewhere, maybe they never show up.

你很可能会错过很多枪伤，如果有人被处决并被扔进河里的某个地方，也许他们永远不会出现。

But there's a certain percentage who are dying of car bombs.

但有一定比例的人死于汽车炸弹。

And what they say is, car bombs people notice.

他们说的是，人们注意到了汽车炸弹。

And that gets reported in the press.

这得到了媒体的报道。

But even according to Lancet figures, if you extrapolate, even the car bomb figures aren't showing up.

但即使根据《柳叶刀》的数据，如果你推断的话，甚至汽车炸弹的数据也没有出现。

In other words, if the Lancet study is right.

换句话说，如果《柳叶刀》的研究是正确的。

We should be seeing a lot more car bombs in the news and we're just not.

我们应该在新闻中看到更多的汽车炸弹，但我们没有。

And we're just not.

而我们却不是。

Right.

正确的。

And so that's one thing.

这是一回事。

And then the second thing they say is that there should be a lot more wounded people.

他们说的第二件事是应该有更多的伤员。

Because in modern wars, for every person that's killed, there is at least three that are wounded seriously.

因为在现代战争中，每有一个人死亡，就至少有三个人受重伤。

That's a general rule of thumb based on lots of lots of studies of wars.

这是基于大量战争研究的一般经验法则。

So for every death-- so if there's 600,000 deaths, there should be some much greater number of wounded people who are showing up.

因此，对于每一次死亡——如果有 600,000 人死亡，那么出现的伤员数量应该要多得多。

And they do some sort of rough calculations.

他们会进行一些粗略的计算。

And they conclude that conservatively, if there are 600,000 people being killed by violence, there should be at least 800,000 people seriously wounded.

他们的结论是，保守地说，如果有60万人被暴力杀害，那么至少应该有80万人受重伤。

But if you look at the hospital records all across Iraq, you don't see 800,000 people as having been treated for shrapnel wounds and legs getting blown off and all the things that you would expect to find for this level of violence.

但如果你查看伊拉克各地的医院记录，你不会发现有 800,000 人因弹片伤和腿部被炸飞而接受治疗，也没有看到这种程度的暴力事件中出现的所有情况。

And did anybody who you talked to have any explanation for how these numbers could be so high?

与您交谈过的人对这些数字为何如此之高有任何解释吗？

Well, there's two possibilities.

嗯，有两种可能性。

One is that Iraq Body Count has more faith in the reporting mechanisms currently existing in Iraq than they should.

一是伊拉克死亡人数统计机构对伊拉克现有的报告机制过于信任。

And that, in fact, even though it's hard to believe that 800,000 people are showing up at hospitals and that's not getting documented, it might be.

事实上，尽管很难相信有 800,000 人到医院就诊，而且没有记录在案，但这可能是事实。

The other possibility is that the data is wrong.

另一种可能是数据有误。

Either people lied to them and told them that people in their household had died, and then somehow fabricated death certificates to support that.

要么是人们对他们撒谎，告诉他们家里有人死了，然后以某种方式伪造死亡证明来支持这一点。

That seems impossible.

这似乎是不可能的。

Because they were randomly selected.

因为他们是随机选择的。

So it's impossible that that happened.

所以这种事不可能发生。

Or the surveyors themselves concocted data.

或者测量员自己炮制数据。

Said that people died in these households when, in fact, they hadn't.

说这些家庭里有人死亡，但事实上，他们没有。

I don't think that happened.

我认为那没有发生。

I think that would be such a huge conspiracy and such a cover up.

我认为这将是一个如此巨大的阴谋和如此巨大的掩盖。

And such a risky thing for all these people to do.

对于所有这些人来说，这样做都是一件冒险的事情。

Because Les was involved-- Les, the guy in the story-- was involved in both of these studies.

因为莱斯参与了——故事中的莱斯——参与了这两项研究。

And he did go there, and he did risk his life.

他确实去了那里，而且确实冒着生命危险。

Right.

正确的。

If you're going to make up stuff, why go door to door in dangerous areas?

如果你要编造一些东西，为什么要挨家挨户地去危险地区呢？

Why not just sit in your office and make up stuff?

为什么不坐在办公室里整理一些东西呢？

And if you're going to go door to door, why not just get the data?

如果您要挨家挨户拜访，为什么不直接获取数据呢？

Right.

正确的。

And if you're going to make up stuff, why make up a number that even the people who are on your alleged side are going to argue with you about?

如果你要编造一些东西，为什么要编造一个连那些所谓的站在你一边的人也会与你争论的数字呢？

That doesn't make any sense at all.

这根本没有任何意义。

If he was going to fake the data, he would have said, there was 300,000 dead.

如果他要伪造数据，他会说，有 30 万人死亡。

And then everybody would have been joining in and saying, this is a horrible thing.

然后每个人都会加入并说，这是一件可怕的事情。

Right.

正确的。

Alex Blumberg And instead, he comes up with this much larger number.

亚历克斯·布隆伯格 相反，他得出了这个更大的数字。

It just doesn't make any sense.

这根本没有任何意义。

So if you're going to lie, do a better job.

所以，如果你要撒谎，那就做得更好。

If you're going to lie, make it a more plausible lie.

如果你要撒谎，那就编一个更可信的谎言。

Alex Blumberg.

亚历克斯·布隆伯格。

Special thanks today to Jerome McDonnell and WBEZ's show Worldview , where you first heard Les Roberts.

今天特别感谢 Jerome McDonnell 和 WBEZ 的 Worldview 节目，您在这里第一次听到了 Les Roberts。

Thanks Ben Shapiro and Beth Osborne Daponte, Fred Caplan and Michael White, Nancy Yousef.

感谢本·夏皮罗和贝丝·奥斯本·达庞特、弗雷德·卡普兰和迈克尔·怀特、南希·优素福。

Laura Poitras, who has a new documentary about Iraq coming out called, My Country, My Country .

劳拉·波伊特拉斯 (Laura Poitras) 推出了一部关于伊拉克的新纪录片，名为《我的国家，我的国家》。

Jamie Tarabay, Adam Davidson, and people at War News Radio, including Wren Elhai.

杰米·塔拉贝 (Jamie Tarabay)、亚当·戴维森 (Adam Davidson) 以及战争新闻广播电台的人员，包括雷恩·艾尔海 (Wren Elhai)。

This American Life is distributed by Public Radio International.

《美国生活》由国际公共广播电台发行。

This American Life is made possible by Volkswagen of America and the Volkswagen Jetta, encouraging listeners to stop stereotyping.

这种美国生活是由美国大众汽车和大众捷达实现的，鼓励听众停止刻板印象。

Learn more at thejettareport.com.

如需了解更多信息，请访问 thejettareport.com。

Support for our podcast, our free podcast, comes from audible.com, where you can download audio books, magazines, newspapers, and radio shows, including archives from the last ten years of This American Life .

对我们的播客（我们的免费播客）的支持来自 audible.com，您可以在其中下载有声读物、杂志、报纸和广播节目，包括《This American Life》过去十年的档案。

Available at audible.com/thisamericanlife or at the iTunes store.

可在 audible.com/thisamericanlife 或 iTunes 商店购买。

WBEZ management oversight for our program by Mr. Torey Malatia.

Torey Malatia 先生对 WBEZ 项目进行管理监督。

Whenever he finishes a budget or correctly orders a lunch, he calls me into his office, leans back in his chair--

每当他完成预算或正确订购午餐时，他就会把我叫到他的办公室，靠在椅子上——

And he looks at me and he says, "Whoever did this was a very smart man."

他看着我说：“做这件事的人都是一个非常聪明的人。”

I'm Ira Glass.

我是艾拉·格拉斯。

Back next week with more stories of This American Life .

下周我们将带来更多《美国生活》的故事。

This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.

《This American Life》与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。