300: What’s In A Number? - This American Life
You are using an outdated browser.
您正在使用过时的浏览器。
Please upgrade your browser or activate Google Chrome Frame to improve your experience.
请升级您的浏览器或激活 Google Chrome 浏览器内嵌框架以改善您的体验。
Sign up for a free Life Partners trial, and you can watch the video “A Night of Stories and Improv.”
注册免费试用《Life Partners》，您可以观看视频“故事与即兴表演之夜”。
00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #300 | October 28, 2005 300: What’s In A Number?
00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 300 集 | 2005 年 10 月 28 日 300：数字中有什么？
Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.
注：《美国生活》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。
If you are able, we strongly encourage you to listen to the audio, which includes emotion and emphasis that's not on the page.
如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。
Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.
文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。
Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.
请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。
Prologue Ira Glass In her two years in Baghdad, Hannah Allam lost over 10 close friends.
序言 艾拉·格拉斯 (Ira Glass) 在巴格达的两年里，汉娜·阿拉姆 (Hannah Allam) 失去了 10 多个亲密朋友。
She was dragged from her hotel in the middle of the night by Iraqi police.
她半夜被伊拉克警察从酒店拖走。
She was caught in an attack on a shrine.
她在袭击神社时被捕。
And things got so bad and lasted so long that she called her mom on her cell phone, thinking she might not make it out of there.
事情变得如此糟糕并持续了很长时间，以至于她用手机给妈妈打电话，认为自己可能无法离开那里。
Then a few weeks ago she took a break from her job as Baghdad bureau chief for the Knight-Ridder Newspapers and game home to the Midwest.
几周前，她辞去了奈特-里德报纸巴格达分社社长的职务，并前往中西部地区进行比赛。
What struck me most coming back this time, this is the longest I've spent in the states in two years, and it does not seem to me like this country is at war.
这次回来给我印象最深的是，这是我两年来在美国待得最久的一次，而且在我看来，这个国家并不像是处于战争状态。
I was just in the airport here in Oklahoma-- Will Rogers International Airport-- and I was waiting on a flight, and a female soldier in full camouflage got off a plane and it was clear she had just come from Iraq, and was kind of looking around and people were looking at her as if she had come from Mars.
我当时正在俄克拉荷马州的机场——威尔·罗杰斯国际机场——我正在等待航班，一名全副迷彩的女兵走下飞机，很明显她刚从伊拉克回来，环顾四周，人们看着她，好像她来自火星。
And it struck me that what was going through people's heads was, oh, yeah, there's a war going on.
让我震惊的是，人们脑子里浮现的是，哦，是的，战争正在发生。
I mean, just that was the looks on their faces.
我的意思是，这就是他们脸上的表情。
You know, I live in Oklahoma, I go to Walmart, I'm an Okie.
你知道，我住在俄克拉荷马州，我去沃尔玛，我是俄克拉荷马州人。
I mean, generally, the conversation goes, oh, can I have your zip code.
我的意思是，一般来说，对话是这样的，哦，我可以知道你的邮政编码吗？
Oh, I live overseas.
哦，我住在海外。
Where?
在哪里？
Baghdad.
巴格达。
Oh, Baghdad.
哦，巴格达。
Wow.
哇。
Well, you must be happy it's going so much better there now.
嗯，你一定很高兴那里现在好多了。
And me, stunned silence.
而我，则是一片震惊的沉默。
And me, mumbling, yeah, yeah, OK.
而我，则咕哝着，是啊，是啊，好吧。
Where do I sign, and getting out of the shop.
我在哪里签名，然后离开商店。
Right.
正确的。
This is you actually just giving your visa card to somebody and you're like yeah, yeah.
这就是你实际上只是把你的签证卡交给某人，你就像是的，是的。
I get that comment a lot.
我经常听到这样的评论。
And people want so much for it to be going well.
人们非常希望一切顺利。
Sometimes I just can't bear to tell them that it's horrible, or that I lost so many friends, or whatever.
有时我只是无法忍受告诉他们这太可怕了，或者我失去了很多朋友，或者诸如此类的事情。
I don't.
我不知道。
I don't say it.
我不说。
It's hard though, soldiers are risking their lives, contractors are risking their lives, she and her staff of reporters are risking their lives, and it's not even for something people are paying attention to?
但这很难，士兵们冒着生命危险，承包商们冒着生命危险，她和她的记者们冒着生命危险，还不是为了人们关注的事情吗？
Captain Chuck Ziegenfuss has seen some of the same things now that he's back in the states.
查克·齐根福斯队长回到美国后也看到了一些同样的事情。
Here's the commander of Charlie Company 234 armor in Iraq.
这是伊拉克查理234装甲连的指挥官。
He was blown off the road by an IED in June 2005.
2005 年 6 月，他被简易爆炸装置从路上炸飞。
Shrapnel in his legs, arms, and face.
他的腿、手臂和脸上都有弹片。
He woke up two weeks later at a hospital in the states.
两周后，他在美国的一家医院醒来。
He says that Fort Riley in Kansas where he lives, so many people have been sent overseas.
他说，他居住的堪萨斯州赖利堡有很多人被送往海外。
It's a military community, there's no escaping the reality of the war.
这是一个军事社区，无法逃避战争的现实。
But when I watch the news and even the local news coming out of Topeka, they cover Iraq in the world minute.
但当我看新闻，甚至托皮卡当地的新闻时，他们都会在世界分钟内报道伊拉克。
It's like an aside to what's going on with the wheat report.
这就像小麦报告的旁白。
And I think a lot of people are just kind of getting on with their lives and although they realize there's a war going on, unless it personally affects them, they don't see it as a war like we saw the second world war or even Korea.
我认为很多人只是继续他们的生活，尽管他们意识到正在发生一场战争，除非它对他们个人产生影响，否则他们并不认为这是一场像我们看到的第二次世界大战甚至朝鲜战争那样的战争。
They see it as more of an over there, but it doesn't apply to them.
他们认为这更像是那里的事情，但这并不适用于他们。
It doesn't anger me that people don't realize there's a war going on, it disappoints me.
人们没有意识到正在发生战争，这并没有让我生气，而是让我失望。
So it's hard to explain, but I don't want to get into the crowd that says, you weren't there, you don't understand.
所以这很难解释，但我不想加入到那些说“你不在那儿，你不明白”的人群中。
It's something that can be explained, just in a lot more detail than you would see in a 60-minute TV show or even an excerpt on the radio.
这是可以解释的，只是比你在 60 分钟的电视节目甚至广播摘录中看到的要详细得多。
Take the body count.
统计一下尸体。
It's been in the news all this week because the number of American soldiers dead in Iraq passed 2,000.
这周新闻都在报道，因为在伊拉克阵亡的美国士兵人数已超过 2000 人。
The body count, to me is probably the most offensive thing as it scrolls past on headline news or things like that because it's not about what we've lost, it's about what we've done and what those 2,000 people were doing when they were killed.
对我来说，死亡人数可能是最令人反感的事情，因为它在头条新闻或类似的事情上滚动过去，因为这不是关于我们失去了什么，而是关于我们所做的事情以及那 2,000 人被杀时正在做什么。
Like myself, what was I doing when I was wounded?
就像我自己一样，受伤时我在做什么？
I was trying to keep a road open and safe for not just my soldiers, but for the people that travel on it every day.
我努力保持道路畅通且安全，不仅为我的士兵，也为每天在这条路上行走的人们。
Now that I'm included in the X number of people that have been wounded in Iraq, I'm more than a statistic, and what I did over in Iraq is more than statistics.
现在，我已被列入在伊拉克受伤的 X 人之列，我不仅仅是一个统计数字，我在伊拉克所做的事也不仅仅是统计数字。
It seems like every day we hear these numbers and facts come and go, car bombings, more deaths.
似乎我们每天都会听到这些数字和事实来来去去，汽车爆炸，更多的死亡。
All really fast, without a lot of explanation.
一切都非常快，没有太多解释。
And today on our radio program, we just try to slow down, and understand better one particular number from Iraq, and what it means, really.
今天在我们的广播节目中，我们只是试图放慢速度，更好地理解来自伊拉克的一个特定数字，以及它的真正含义。
From WBEZ Chicago it's This American Life , I'm Ira Glass.
来自芝加哥 WBEZ 的《This American Life》，我是 Ira Glass。
In act one of our show we're going to talk about a number and a quick news story that nobody really seemed to take very seriously at the time that it happened and what was really behind it.
在我们节目的第一幕中，我们将讨论一个数字和一个简短的新闻故事，在事情发生时似乎没有人真正认真对待它以及其背后的真正原因。
In act two, the Air Force drops a bombs on the wrong target in Sunni Iraq and accidentally kills 12 people, including children.
在第二幕中，空军向逊尼派伊拉克的错误目标投掷炸弹，意外杀死了 12 人，其中包括儿童。
An army captain has to go apologize and try to make things right.
陆军上尉必须去道歉并努力纠正错误。
A journalist was with them and recorded this very difficult moment.
一名记者和他们在一起，记录了这个非常困难的时刻。
Act three, what do we do with these numbers anyway?
第三幕，我们如何处理这些数字？
Stay with us.
留在我们身边。
Act one, Truths, Damn Truths, and Statistics.
第一幕，真相，该死的真相和统计数据。
The number we're going to talk about right now is not how many Americans have died in the Iraq war, but how many Iraqis have.
我们现在要谈论的数字不是有多少美国人在伊拉克战争中死亡，而是有多少伊拉克人。
The fact is we have no idea how many civilians have died as a result of the war.
事实上，我们不知道有多少平民因战争而死亡。
Nobody counts.
没有人算数。
Not the military, not the State Department.
不是军队，不是国务院。
The Iraqi Ministry of Health for a good while early on in the war, was compiling morgue figures from across the country, and making them public every week.
伊拉克卫生部在战争初期的一段时间内一直在收集全国各地太平间的数据，并每周公布。
But that practice was stopped.
但这种做法被停止了。
These days, the place that most people go when they need a figure is a privately run, nonprofit website called Iraqbodycount.net.
如今，大多数人在需要数据时都会去一个名为伊拉克身体计数网（Iraqbodycount.net）的私营非营利网站。
It gets its figures by going through newspaper articles and other press accounts and simply counting the number of people reported dead in those articles.
它通过查看报纸文章和其他新闻报道并简单地计算这些文章中报道的死亡人数来获取数据。
Even the people who started the site and who run it today freely admit that this method gives you a huge undercount.
即使是创建该网站并运营该网站的人也坦率地承认，这种方法会导致严重低估。
At best it's a minimum.
充其量只是最低限度。
The true number could be much, much higher.
真实数字可能要高得多。
One of the producers of our radio show, Alex Blumberg, started looking into all of this.
我们广播节目的制作人之一亚历克斯·布隆伯格（Alex Blumberg）开始研究这一切。
And he found something surprising and disturbing about the death figures, and what we know about them.
他在死亡人数以及我们对他们的了解中发现了一些令人惊讶和不安的事情。
Here he is.
他在这里。
Eveyone will tell you, counting civilian casualties in wartime is hard.
每个人都会告诉你，统计战时的平民伤亡是很困难的。
First of all, you need to do something called a large-scale mortality study.
首先，您需要进行大规模死亡率研究。
And second of all, you need to do it in the middle of a war zone.
其次，你需要在战区中部进行。
To date in Iraq, there's only been one attempt.
迄今为止，在伊拉克只进行过一次尝试。
It was a Johns Hopkins University Study published in The Lancet, a British medical journal, in late October 2004, a couple of days before the US presidential election.
这是约翰·霍普金斯大学的一项研究，于 2004 年 10 月下旬，即美国总统大选前几天，发表在英国医学杂志《柳叶刀》上。
It concluded that probably 100,000 Iraqis had died as a result of the war.
其结论是，大约有 10 万伊拉克人死于战争。
This figure was astonishingly high.
这个数字高得惊人。
10 times higher than any casualty estimates at the time.
比当时估计的伤亡人数高出 10 倍。
Even today, a year later, with all the extra deaths that have happened in that year, no other estimate comes close.
即使在一年后的今天，考虑到当年发生的所有额外死亡人数，也没有其他估计可以与之相媲美。
Just this week, the New York Times ran a story based on the Iraq body count website that's estimating civilian casualties at a fraction of that number, just 30,000.
就在本周，《纽约时报》刊登了一篇基于伊拉克死亡人数统计网站的报道，该网站估计平民伤亡人数仅为该数字的一小部分，仅为 30,000 人。
Since The Lancet study's figures were so high and the study itself got almost no traction in the press, I remember thinking at the time it came out, that it's probably bogus and slanted.
由于《柳叶刀》研究的数字如此之高，而且该研究本身几乎没有受到媒体的关注，我记得在它发表时我想，它可能是伪造的且有偏见的。
I'm guessing a lot of people, if they even heard about the study, felt the same way.
我猜很多人，如果他们听说过这项研究，也会有同样的感觉。
But recently, in trying to figure out how many civilians have died in the war, I've learned more about The Lancet study.
但最近，在试图弄清楚有多少平民在战争中死亡时，我了解了更多有关《柳叶刀》研究的信息。
And the more I learned about it and the remarkable story of how it was done, the more likely it seems that the 100,000 is actually the best estimate.
我对它以及它是如何完成的非凡故事了解得越多，就越有可能认为 100,000 实际上是最好的估计。
And if anything, low.
如果有的话，那就是低。
Before the Iraq study the main thing I was known for and that I had testified in front of Congress for was documenting how many people had died in the war in the Congo.
在伊拉克研究之前，我出名并在国会作证的主要内容是记录刚果战争中有多少人死亡。
This is Les Roberts, the lead author on The Lancet study and one of a handful of scientists in the world who could be called, an expert in counting war dead.
这是莱斯·罗伯茨，《柳叶刀》研究的主要作者，也是世界上少数可以被称为战争死亡人数专家的科学家之一。
In the Congo study, he found that 1.7 million civilians had died from the war, a figure cited by Colin Powell when he was secretary of state, and Tony Blair on the floor of the British parliament.
在刚果的研究中，他发现有 170 万平民死于战争，担任国务卿的科林·鲍威尔和英国议会的托尼·布莱尔都引用了这一数字。
Les has also done studies in Burundi, Rwanda, and Sierra Leon.
莱斯还曾在布隆迪、卢旺达和塞拉利昂进行过研究。
To a guy in Les Robert's line of work, the war in Iraq had a number of unique and interesting things that deserved study.
对于莱斯·罗伯特的同僚来说，伊拉克战争有许多独特而有趣的事情值得研究。
The main thing that distinguished this work was that the military took unprecedented care to avoid civilian casualties.
这项工作的主要特点是军方前所未有地小心翼翼地避免平民伤亡。
Almost 2/3 of the bombs dropped were precision guided, as compared to just 8% in the first Gulf War, and 0% in World War II.
投下的炸弹中近 2/3 是精确制导的，而第一次海湾战争中只有 8%，第二次世界大战中则为 0%。
They limited daytime strikes and avoided civilian infrastructure, like power and sewer plants.
他们限制了白天的罢工，并避开了发电厂和下水道等民用基础设施。
Compare that to World War II where American forces fire-bombed entire cities as part of the military strategy, killing up to 100,000 people in Tokyo alone, and upwards of half a million civilians in Europe, and you can see why George Bush called the Iraq War one of the most quote, "humane military campaigns in history."
与第二次世界大战相比，美国军队作为军事战略的一部分对整个城市进行燃烧弹轰炸，仅在东京就造成了多达 10 万人死亡，在欧洲造成了超过 50 万平民，你就可以明白为什么乔治·布什将伊拉克战争称为“历史上最人道的军事行动”之一。
But Les knew that often it's not bombs and bullets that kill people in war, it's the other things that happen when society falls apart.
但莱斯知道，在战争中杀人的往往不是炸弹和子弹，而是社会崩溃时发生的其他事情。
Clean water and medical supplies get scarce.
清洁水和医疗用品变得稀缺。
In a lot of the studies he did in Africa, diarrhea killed more people than weapons did.
在他在非洲进行的许多研究中，腹泻造成的死亡人数比武器造成的死亡人数还要多。
Women can't get to the hospital to deliver their babies, so infant mortality rates go up as well.
妇女无法前往医院分娩，因此婴儿死亡率也会上升。
It took Les a long time to get to Iraq and see if the same things were happening there.
莱斯花了很长时间才到达伊拉克，看看那里是否也发生同样的事情。
First, an Iraqi doctor who he'd plan to work with died in an auto accident, another social ill, by the way, that tends to increase during wartime.
首先，他计划与之合作的一名伊拉克医生死于一场车祸，顺便说一句，这是另一种社会疾病，这种疾病在战时往往会增加。
And then insurgent violence spiked.
然后叛乱暴力激增。
It wasn't until August of 2004, five months after he'd originally planned to go, that he finally landed in Amman, Jordan.
直到2004年8月，也就是他原计划去的五个月后，他才终于抵达约旦安曼。
He had $24,000 in foundation money in his pocket, his passport, and a letter of invitation from the Iraqi Ministry of Education.
他的口袋里有2.4万美元的基金会资金、护照和伊拉克教育部的邀请函。
He found a driver, a retired Iraqi army officer named Wahid, who agreed to take him to Baghdad.
他找到了一名司机，一位名叫瓦希德的退休伊拉克军官，他同意带他去巴格达。
Problems started at the very first checkpoint, on the border between Jordan and Iraq.
问题始于约旦和伊拉克边境的第一个检查站。
Wahid takes my passport, he takes my letter of invitation, and he goes.
瓦希德拿走了我的护照，拿走了我的邀请函，然后就走了。
And he comes out just a few minutes later and he is just terrified.
几分钟后他就出来了，他只是感到害怕。
Turns out he bumped into a former friend of his from his military days.
原来他碰见了他从军时的一位老朋友。
And he had pulled out my passport in front of him and his friend just, like, blanched and pushed the passport back into his pocket and said, you have an American here, are you crazy?
他在他和他的朋友面前拿出了我的护照，脸色苍白，然后把护照塞回口袋里，说，你们这里有一个美国人，你疯了吗？
Don't let anyone see that.
不要让任何人看到。
Just get the hell out of here and don't let me see you again.
赶紧离开这里，别让我再见到你。
You idiot!
你这个白痴！
Fortunately for Les, Wahid was something of a Han Solo figure, an unenthusiastic, but talented smuggler who didn't look for trouble, but didn't run away from it once it found him.
对于莱斯来说，幸运的是，瓦希德有点像汉·索罗（Han Solo），一个不热心但才华横溢的走私犯，他不会自找麻烦，但一旦麻烦找到他，他也不会逃跑。
He talked his way through that first checkpoint.
他用自己的方式通过了第一个检查站。
And we drive up a couple of miles and he pulls off the road behind this abandoned old gas station.
我们开车走了几英里，他把车停在这个废弃的旧加油站后面的路上。
And in the upholstery of his car he's got hidden another pair of license plates with a different color.
在他的汽车内饰中，他藏了另一对不同颜色的车牌。
And he's got another registration form to go with those license plates.
他还有另一张登记表与这些车牌一起使用。
So quickly, he gets out and he changes his license plates.
很快，他就下了车，换了车牌。
And he says, look, you must lie down.
他说，听着，你必须躺下。
You must stay hidden.
你必须保持隐藏。
And so I spent the next, whatever, eight hours lying on the floor.
所以接下来的八个小时我都躺在地板上。
And we actually had to go through two extra points where they stopped and looked around in the car and he chatted with folks.
事实上，我们必须经过两个额外的点，他们停下来，在车里环顾四周，他和人们聊天。
And here I am, I'm lying down behind the back seat on the floor.
我在这里，躺在后座后面的地板上。
So when they stopped and looked around, you were actually hiding from them?
那么当他们停下来环顾四周时，你实际上是在躲避他们吗？
That's right.
这是正确的。
Alex Blumberg And were you scared?
Alex Blumberg 你害怕吗？
That's a funny thing.
这是一件有趣的事情。
I had consciously made the decision that it was worth trading my life for a chance at getting a realistic estimate of how many Iraqi civilians have died and how they've died, so I was quite at peace with the notion of dying when I went.
我有意识地决定，值得用我的生命来换取一个机会，以实际估计有多少伊拉克平民死亡以及他们是如何死亡的，所以当我去的时候，我对死亡的想法感到很平静。
Les finally made it to Baghdad, where he met for the first time in person, his Iraqi co-researcher, the man with whom he'd be working for the next month.
莱斯最终到达了巴格达，在那里他第一次见到了他的伊拉克合作研究员，下个月将与他一起工作。
His name was Riyadh Lafta and he was a doctor of community medicine at Al-Mustansiriya University in Baghdad.
他的名字叫 Riyadh Lafta，是巴格达 Al-Mustansiriya 大学的社区医学博士。
Riyadh had hired a team of researchers, mostly doctors from his university.
利雅得聘请了一组研究人员，其中大部分是他所在大学的医生。
All of them native Iraqis, but fluent in English.
他们都是伊拉克人，但英语很流利。
Let's pause here a moment to talk about their methodology.
让我们在这里暂停一下，谈谈他们的方法论。
Because when their study came out later, a lot of people wanted to believe that it was flawed or biased.
因为当他们的研究后来出来时，很多人都愿意相信它是有缺陷或有偏见的。
In fact, the survey team used a standard methodology for measuring health and mortality over a geographic area.
事实上，调查小组使用了标准方法来衡量某个地理区域的健康和死亡率。
It's called a cluster sample survey and it works like this.
这称为整群抽样调查，其工作原理如下。
Using the most recent census figures available in Iraq, the team made what was essentially, a map of the population.
该团队利用伊拉克最新的人口普查数据，绘制了一张人口地图。
They then used a random number generator to pick 33 points on that map.
然后他们使用随机数生成器在该地图上选取 33 个点。
Baghdad was the biggest population center, so it got several points by itself.
巴格达是最大的人口中心，因此它本身就获得了几分。
But the other points were spread all over the country, from the Kurdish north to the Shiite south, from small towns to big cities.
但其他点则分布在全国各地，从库尔德北部到什叶派南部，从小城镇到大城市。
Once they'd picked a town though, the team still had to figure out who to interview there.
不过，一旦他们选择了一个城镇，团队仍然必须弄清楚在那里采访谁。
Here again, they worked hard to leave everything to chance.
在这里，他们再次努力工作，让一切都听天由命。
Using GPS units, they would drive around the outskirts of the town and store the coordinates, creating a rough outline of the town border.
他们将使用 GPS 装置在城镇郊区行驶并存储坐标，从而绘制出城镇边界的粗略轮廓。
They would then generate a random point within that border, drive to it, and interview the 30 nearest households.
然后，他们会在该边界内随机生成一个点，开车前往该点，并采访最近的 30 个家庭。
It was such a commitment to random sampling that the first few times the team did it, even the researchers Les and Riyadh were working with, found it obsessive.
由于对随机抽样的承诺如此强烈，以至于团队在最初几次这样做时，甚至与莱斯和利雅得一起工作的研究人员也发现了这种做法的痴迷。
It was very annoying to them because here they are in the car.
这对他们来说非常烦人，因为他们在车里。
They're out, they're feeling like they're at risk.
他们出去了，他们感觉自己处于危险之中。
And they'd be driving around for a long time to get to the extremes of a city and draw their map before they interviewed the first house.
在采访第一栋房子之前，他们会开很长时间的车到达城市的最极端并绘制地图。
They're like driving around and not getting any work done they felt.
他们就像开车到处乱跑，却没有完成任何他们认为的工作。
And this is all just to make it as scientifically valid as possible, right?
这一切只是为了使其尽可能具有科学依据，对吧？
This is a way of picking houses without any sort of preference for safe neighborhoods, dangerous neighborhoods, near the highway, far from the highway.
这是一种选择房屋的方式，对安全社区、危险社区、靠近高速公路、远离高速公路没有任何偏好。
It was a way of sort of transcending human laziness so that, in essence, every household in Iraq had an equal chance we would visit them.
这是一种超越人类懒惰的方式，因此从本质上讲，伊拉克的每个家庭都有平等的机会去拜访他们。
And that is, in essence, the definition of random.
从本质上讲，这就是随机的定义。
The survey went smoothly, at least for the first couple of days.
调查进行得很顺利，至少在最初几天是这样。
People, it turned out, were much more willing to answer questions.
事实证明，人们更愿意回答问题。
Even to provide death certificates as verification, than the researchers had initially thought they'd be.
甚至提供死亡证明作为验证，也比研究人员最初想象的要多。
In fact, the trouble, when it came, came from Les himself.
事实上，当麻烦来临时，正是莱斯本人带来的。
Must be about the fifth day I was out with them, the eighth cluster I attended.
大概是我和他们一起出去的第五天，这是我参加的第八个集群。
I, and two of the interviewers were up in a town to the north called Balad.
我和两位采访者在北部一个叫巴拉德的小镇。
And there was a huge picture of the cleric Sadr as you rolled into Balad.
当你滚进巴拉德时，有一张牧师萨德尔的巨幅照片。
So clearly, it was an anti-coalition city in a big way.
很明显，从很大程度上来说，这是一座反联盟城市。
Sadr of Sadr militia?
萨德尔民兵的萨德尔？
Les Roberts Of the Sadr militia, that's right.
萨德尔民兵的莱斯·罗伯茨，没错。
And as fate would have it, the first or the second door they knocked on was the governor's house.
命运就是这样，他们敲的第一扇或第二扇门就是总督府。
And so somebody calls the police.
于是有人报了警。
Les watched from the car as the police took the two researchers-- both doctors, one a dignified man in his 50s and the other a single mother-- and drove them away.
莱斯在车上看着警察带走了两名研究人员——两人都是医生，其中一位是 50 多岁的有尊严的男人，另一位是单身母亲——并将他们赶走了。
He was terrified that somehow the police would find out that they were working with him, an American.
他害怕警察会以某种方式发现他们正在与他这个美国人合作。
But he could do nothing but sit in the parked car and hope no one discovered him.
但他无能为力，只能坐在停着的车里，希望没有人发现他。
I had done everything I could to be invisible.
我已竭尽全力让自己隐形。
I wore boring Iraqi clothing.
我穿着乏味的伊拉克服装。
I had dyed my hair black.
我把头发染成了黑色。
I had grown a beard, so I would look right.
我留了胡子，所以我看起来不错。
But it still didn't look right.
但看起来还是不太对劲。
They had made up a fake business card that said, Dr. Abdul Salaam.
他们伪造了一张假名片，上面写着“阿卜杜勒·萨拉姆博士”。
That I was from Bosnia because that would explain me being blue-eyed, non-Arabic speaking.
我来自波斯尼亚，因为这可以解释我为什么是蓝眼睛、不会说阿拉伯语。
But I could still be a Muslim and that would make me OK.
但我仍然可以是一名穆斯林，这会让我过得很好。
I was just so worried that us sitting there for an exorbitant length of time would draw attention that I put the back of the passenger seat down and I sort of laid on my side to pretend I was asleep, so I wouldn't have to speak to anyone if anyone came to the window of the car.
我只是担心我们坐在那里的时间过长会引起注意，所以我把乘客座椅的靠背放下来，侧身躺着假装睡着了，这样如果有人来到车窗前，我就不必和任何人说话。
And I had probably been lying on my side for about 20, 30 minutes and these two little kids, they might have been 10, they came up to the window beside where I was, they stuck their head in the car, they looked around, and I'm pretending to be asleep.
我可能已经侧躺了大约 20、30 分钟，这两个小孩，他们可能只有 10 岁，他们来到我旁边的窗户，把头伸进车里，环顾四周，我假装睡着了。
And they said to me, in English, hello mister.
他们用英语对我说，你好，先生。
And you know, even with my eyes closed pretending to be asleep, there's just no way I could pretend I was an Iraqi.
你知道，即使我闭着眼睛假装睡着，我也无法假装自己是伊拉克人。
And there was no way around it, so that was a pretty just horrifying experience all around.
而且没有办法解决这个问题，所以这真是一次非常可怕的经历。
And I'm wondering have I gotten these two lovely interviewers arrested or killed?
我想知道我是否让这两位可爱的采访者被捕或被杀？
And after an hour or a little more, a car brought back the two interviewers and they went right back to work.
一个多小时后，一辆车带回了两位面试官，他们就回去工作了。
They didn't come to the car.
他们没有上车。
They didn't look at us.
他们没有看我们。
They didn't acknowledge us.
他们不承认我们。
They just went right back to work and finished out the 30 houses randomly picked in that neighborhood and off we went.
他们立即回去工作，完成了在该社区随机挑选的 30 栋房子，然后我们就出发了。
But after that day, no interviewer ever spoke to me again.
但那天之后，就没有面试官再跟我说话了。
Not in person.
不是亲自。
Riyadh and Les decided that for everyone's safety, he should lay as low as possible.
利雅得和莱斯决定，为了每个人的安全，他应该尽可能低地躺着。
So for the next 16 days straight he didn't leave his hotel.
所以接下来的16天他都没有离开过酒店。
To pass the time he crunched the numbers that the survey teams were calling into him every night.
为了打发时间，他每天晚上都要处理调查小组给他打电话的数字。
The surveyors were getting basically two pieces of information from each household.
调查人员基本上从每个家庭获得了两条信息。
How many people in that household had died in the 14 months before the invasion, and of what, and when?
在入侵之前的 14 个月里，该家庭有多少人死亡，死于什么、何时？
And how many had died in the 17 months after the invasion, and of what, and when?
入侵后 17 个月内有多少人死亡、死于什么、何时死亡？
By the time the teams had completed their 32nd out of 33 clusters, over 900 households, and over 7,000 people, the results were pretty shocking.
当团队完成33个集群中的第32个、900多户、7000多人时，结果相当令人震惊。
The death rate itself had gone up about 60%.
死亡率本身上升了约 60%。
Large increase, but one that Les had expected from his other surveys.
增幅很大，但这是莱斯在其他调查中所预期的。
The shocker was how people were dying.
令人震惊的是人们的死亡方式。
For the first time in any of his surveys, the leading cause of death wasn't disease, it was bombs and bullets.
在他的所有调查中，第一次发现死亡的主要原因不是疾病，而是炸弹和子弹。
In the 32 of the 33 clusters sampled, 21 people died of violence, as compared to just 1 violent death in the period before the war.
在 33 个抽样集群中的 32 个集群中，有 21 人死于暴力，而战前时期只有 1 人死于暴力。
There was a second shocker.
还有第二个令人震惊的事情。
Of those 21, 2 people died in firefights where it was unclear where the bullet came from.
在这 21 人中，有 2 人在交火中死亡，目前尚不清楚子弹来自何处。
3 were killed by insurgents or Saddam loyalists.
3人被叛乱分子或萨达姆的效忠者杀害。
7 died from criminal violence, carjackings, revenge killings, that sort of thing.
7人死于暴力犯罪、劫车、报复性杀戮等。
And the biggest number, 9, were killed by the American-led coalition.
其中人数最多的为 9 人，是被美国领导的联军杀害的。
I just didn't expect violence from the coalition to have dominated the causes of death in Iraq.
我只是没想到联军的暴力行为在伊拉克的死亡原因中占主导地位。
In no way reading the New York Times and listening to National Public Radio would I have believed that the coalition killed far, far, far more people than did the insurgents setting off car bombs.
读《纽约时报》和听国家公共广播电台时，我绝对不会相信联军杀害的人数比叛乱分子引爆汽车炸弹的人数要多得多。
I should mention that only three of them involved guys with guns.
我应该提一下，其中只有三人涉及持枪的人。
All the rest were helicopter gunships and bombs from planes, so it's not about individual soldiers doing bad things.
剩下的都是武装直升机和飞机炸弹，所以并不是个别士兵干坏事。
In fact, two of those three cases when soldiers shot civilians with their guns, they actually went to the houses of the decedents and apologized to the families.
事实上，在这三起士兵用枪射杀平民的案件中，有两起，他们实际上去了死者的家中，向死者家属道歉。
There's no evidence here of soldiers running amok.
这里没有任何证据表明士兵们肆意妄为。
There's evidence here of a style of engagement that probably has relied very heavily on air power that has resulted in a lot of civilian deaths.
这里有证据表明，一种可能非常依赖空中力量的交战方式导致了大量平民死亡。
I was at a presentation last November and a Pentagon spokesperson said that they've dropped about 50,000 bombs in Iraq.
去年 11 月，我参加了一次演讲，五角大楼发言人表示，他们已在伊拉克投放了约 50,000 枚炸弹。
50,000 bombs.
50,000枚炸弹。
Very, very small fraction of them would need to miss their target or be based on bad information to explain 100,000 civilian deaths.
其中非常非常小的一部分需要错过目标或基于错误的信息来解释 100,000 平民的死亡。
At the end of three weeks, there was only one more cluster to survey.
三周结束时，只剩下一个集群需要调查。
The team had saved it for the end because it was the most dangerous one: Fallujah.
该团队将其保留到最后，因为这是最危险的：费卢杰。
Remember, this is September 2004, insurgents control the city and it's basically under siege from the coalition.
请记住，这是 2004 年 9 月，叛乱分子控制了这座城市，并且它基本上处于联军的围困之下。
They're shelling it regularly.
他们定期炮轰它。
It just seems crazy to go there.
去那里似乎很疯狂。
And I said to Riyadh, Riyadh, we have been to 32 of our 33 picked neighborhoods.
我对利雅得说，利雅得，我们已经去过我们挑选的 33 个社区中的 32 个。
We actually only thought in the end we would get to 30.
事实上我们只是以为最终我们会达到 30 名。
We had aimed for 30 and picked 33 with the thought that 10% of places would be too unstable for us to get to.
我们的目标是 30 个，最终选择了 33 个，因为我们认为 10% 的地方太不稳定，我们无法到达。
So we've done better than we expected.
所以我们做得比我们预期的要好。
We have a terrible story to tell, the mortality is way up.
我们有一个可怕的故事要讲，死亡率大幅上升。
Whatever you find in Fallujah is not going to change the story.
无论你在费卢杰发现什么，都不会改变这个故事。
Think of what we're going to gain.
想想我们将获得什么。
We're going to gain nothing.
我们将一无所获。
And he said, God picked those random locations.
他说，上帝随机选择了这些地点。
God wants me to do this work.
上帝希望我做这项工作。
I must do this.
我必须这样做。
And we went back and forth and back and forth and back and forth and-- I was brought up Catholic, and I had never really thought about it or understood it until that moment in time.
我们来来回回，我是天主教徒，直到那一刻我才真正思考或理解它。
But in my head, I actually sort of build up a weight.
但在我的脑海里，我实际上增加了体重。
What's the likelihood of something bad going to happen to these guys, and how bad is that?
这些人发生不好的事情的可能性有多大，有多糟糕？
What's the likelihood of something good coming from what they do?
他们所做的事情带来好处的可能性有多大？
And how good is that?
那有多好呢？
And I sort of put a weight on each of them and as I spoke with Riyadh, he actually did not have the capacity to do that.
我对他们每个人都给予了重视，当我与利雅得交谈时，他实际上没有能力做到这一点。
Because for him, doing God's will and this work were inseparable.
因为对他来说，遵行神的旨意和这项工作是密不可分的。
He couldn't separate out risk because that was separating out sort of faith.
他无法排除风险，因为风险就排除了某种信仰。
The more we spoke, the more I understood that on some very, very fundamental level that we couldn't communicate with each other about our motives here.
我们说得越多，我就越明白，在一些非常非常基本的层面上，我们无法就我们在这里的动机进行沟通。
And in the end, he went.
最后，他走了。
Only one other interviewer agreed to go to Fallujah with Riyadh, a doctor who had relatives there he wanted to check up on.
只有另一位采访者同意与利雅得一起前往费卢杰，这位医生的亲戚在那里，他想检查一下。
Their car was stopped three times on the way into the city.
他们的车在进城的路上被拦了3次。
Heading to their random spot, they saw devastation everywhere.
前往随机地点时，他们看到到处都是一片废墟。
Houses were bombed, rubble lay in the streets.
房屋被炸毁，街道上满是瓦砾。
The block they stopped on was no different.
他们停下来的街区没有什么不同。
They had to visit 52 households to get the requisite number of interviews.
他们必须走访 52 户家庭才能获得所需数量的访谈。
23 homes were either temporarily or permanently abandoned.
23 所房屋被暂时或永久废弃。
Neighbors said that in the abandoned houses, most people had died.
邻居称，废弃房屋内，大部分人已经死亡。
But this data couldn't be substantiated, so it wasn't even included in the survey results.
但这个数据无法得到证实，因此甚至没有包含在调查结果中。
In the 30 households they did survey, there were 53 deaths.
在他们调查的30户家庭中，有53人死亡。
52 of these were violent deaths, all but one caused by coalition weapons.
其中 52 人死于暴力，除 1 人外，其余都是由联军武器造成的。
24 of the people killed by coalition bombs and bullets were children under 12 years old.
被联军炸弹和子弹打死的人中有 24 人是 12 岁以下的儿童。
And with that, the survey was over.
至此，调查结束。
Five days and counting, tonight the newest polls, the latest trends, and breaking developments from the campaign trail on America's News Live.
五天了，今晚美国新闻直播将带来最新民意调查、最新趋势以及竞选活动的重大进展。
This is Fox Evening News October 28, 2004, on the day the results of Les' survey that just shy of 100,000 Iraqis had died as a result of the war were released.
这是2004年10月28日福克斯晚间新闻，当天莱斯的调查结果公布，有近10万伊拉克人死于战争。
Les had not even considered the Fallujah data in coming up with this number.
莱斯在得出这个数字时甚至没有考虑费卢杰的数据。
Fallujah had so many deaths, it was too much of a statistical outlier to even include.
费卢杰的死亡人数如此之多，统计上的异常值甚至无法包括在内。
Fox never mentioned the study, neither did ABC or CBS.
福克斯从未提及这项研究，美国广播公司或哥伦比亚广播公司也没有提及。
The only national network that carried the story was NBC for 21 seconds.
唯一报道该故事的全国性网络是 NBC，时长为 21 秒。
Tom, thanks, and we begin here with Iraq Watch tonight and one measure of the high cost of war.
汤姆，谢谢，我们从今晚的伊拉克观察开始，这是衡量战争高昂代价的一个指标。
A new study from Johns Hopkins University estimates that 100,000 Iraqi civilians have died since the start of the war.
约翰·霍普金斯大学的一项新研究估计，自战争爆发以来已有 10 万伊拉克平民死亡。
The majority as a result of US air strikes.
大部分是美国空袭造成的。
This is a much larger figure than some previous estimates.
这个数字比之前的一些估计要大得多。
The Pentagon had no comment on the number, but said it had taken great care to prevent civilian deaths.
五角大楼没有对这一数字发表评论，但表示已采取极大措施防止平民死亡。
And there is word--
还有一句话——
Morning Edition and All things Considered on NPR, devoted 45 seconds to the story.
早间版和 NPR 的《All things Thoughts》用 45 秒的时间讲述了这个故事。
And it didn't make the front page of the New York Times , the Washington Post , or any national newspaper.
它没有登上《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》或任何全国性报纸的头版。
The Iraq study had provided information about the war that up until that point, no one had been able to provide.
伊拉克研究提供了迄今为止无人能够提供的有关战争的信息。
The number it gave was much higher than anyone would have expected.
它给出的数字远高于任何人的预期。
It was just as accurate as Les' previous studies in Africa that he'd done using the exact same methods and which were widely reported in the press and quoted by lawmakers.
这与莱斯之前在非洲进行的研究一样准确，他使用完全相同的方法进行的研究，并被媒体广泛报道并被立法者引用。
His Congo study was page one in the New York Times .
他对刚果的研究登上了《纽约时报》的第一版。
The only differences with the study were that he'd risked his life to do it and it was about Iraq.
与这项研究的唯一不同之处在于，他冒着生命危险进行这项研究，而且研究的主题是伊拉克。
Which, if anything, should have made it more interesting to the media.
如果有的话，这应该会让媒体更感兴趣。
So why didn't it get any press?
那么为什么它没有得到任何媒体报道呢？
Partly, it was the timing.
部分原因在于时机。
The study came out five days before the US election, and so the media was pretty preoccupied.
该研究在美国大选前五天发布，因此媒体非常关注。
Plus, there was a suspicion that the team had timed the release of the survey specifically to influence the election, a suspicion that Les didn't really help dispel.
另外，有人怀疑该团队专门安排发布调查的时间来影响选举，但莱斯并没有真正帮助消除这种怀疑。
He said to an AP reporter about the study quote, "I emailed it on September 30 under the condition that it come out before the election.
他对美联社记者谈到这份研究报告时说：“我于 9 月 30 日通过电子邮件发送了该报告，条件是该报告必须在选举前发布。
My motive in doing that was not to skew the election.
我这样做的动机不是为了扭曲选举。
My motive was, that if this came out during the campaign, both candidates would be forced to pledge to protect civilian lives in Iraq.
我的动机是，如果这在竞选期间出现，两位候选人都将被迫承诺保护伊拉克平民的生命。
I was opposed to the war and I still think the war was a bad idea, but I think that our science has transcended our perspectives.
我反对战争，我仍然认为战争是一个坏主意，但我认为我们的科学已经超越了我们的观点。
As an American, I'm really, really sorry to be reporting this."
作为一名美国人，我真的非常非常遗憾地报道此事。”
One desk editor at a national news organization told me that when the study came out he sent an email to one of his colleagues saying, "The Lancet had in the past, published some studies with a political slant, but that this study seemed sound and maybe they should report on it." Then he saw Les' comments and he didn't follow up.
一家全国性新闻机构的一位办公桌编辑告诉我，这项研究发表后，他给一位同事发了一封电子邮件，说：“《柳叶刀》过去曾发表过一些带有政治倾向的研究，但这项研究似乎很合理，也许他们应该对此进行报道。”然后他看到了Les的评论，他就没有再跟进。
This is exactly the type of story that those who believe the media has a liberal bias love to pounce on.
这正是那些认为媒体有自由主义偏见的人喜欢抓住的故事类型。
And so, in essence, if the research turns out to be flawed, this desk editor's organization gets the heat for it.
因此，从本质上讲，如果研究结果存在缺陷，这位案头编辑的组织就会受到批评。
He had a very small window of time during a very busy news cycle to decide whether the study was legit or just an angry and easily debunked researcher pushing an agenda.
在非常繁忙的新闻周期中，他只有很短的时间来决定这项研究是否合法，或者只是一个愤怒且容易被揭穿的研究人员推动的议程。
And Les' comments seemed to be all the evidence he needed.
而莱斯的评论似乎就是他所需要的全部证据。
And there was one other thing that made it easy for the media to dismiss the report.
还有一件事让媒体很容易驳回这篇报道。
A researcher at Human Rights Watch, who himself had done studies of civilian casualties during wartime said he didn't believe the study.
人权观察组织的一名研究人员本人曾对战时平民伤亡进行过研究，他表示他不相信这项研究。
The researcher's name was Marc Garlasco, and he told a reporter for the Washington Post quote, "The number seems high to me." And quote, "It seems like a stretch."
这位研究人员的名字叫马克·加拉斯科（Marc Garlasco），他对《华盛顿邮报》引述的记者说：“这个数字对我来说似乎很高。”并引用：“这似乎有点牵强。”
I was actually on the Long Island Railroad when he called me.
当他打电话给我时，我实际上正在长岛铁路上。
It was sometime in the evening and I had yet to read Les' report.
那是晚上的某个时间，我还没有读莱斯的报告。
This is Marc Garlasco.
这是马克·加尔拉斯科。
He said he told the reporter from the Post that he hadn't read the study, but the reporter said he really needed a quote and could he just respond to the number.
他说，他告诉《华盛顿邮报》记者，他没有读过这项研究，但记者说他确实需要报价，他可以直接回复这个数字吗？
Garlasco's quote was cited elsewhere and he appeared on CNN, although none of the study's authors were interviewed on CNN, or any of the major networks.
Garlasco 的引述在其他地方被引用，并且他出现在 CNN 上，尽管该研究的作者没有接受 CNN 或任何主要网络的采访。
Here's what Marc Garlasco says now.
这是马克·加拉斯科现在所说的话。
First of all, I'm not a statistician.
首先，我不是统计学家。
I know absolutely nothing about it.
我对此一无所知。
And when I then went and spoke to statisticians they said, well, the method that he's using is a really accurate one.
然后当我去与统计学家交谈时，他们说，嗯，他使用的方法非常准确。
This is something that we use in studies all throughout the world and it's a generally accepted model.
这是我们在世界各地的研究中使用的东西，也是一个普遍接受的模型。
That kind of made me think about it.
这让我想到了这一点。
Think about my prejudices going into reading his report because I had been on the ground in Iraq immediately after the war.
想想我在阅读他的报告时的偏见，因为我在战后立即前往伊拉克。
But I also had taken part in the targeting for the war.
但我也参与了战争的瞄准工作。
OK, let's just stop here for one minute.
好的，我们就在这里停一分钟。
You heard what he said.
你听到他说的话了。
He'd taken part in the targeting for the war.
他参与了战争的瞄准工作。
Get ready, because this story's about to take a turn.
做好准备，因为这个故事即将发生转折。
Marc Garlasco isn't your typical human rights advocate.
马克·加尔拉斯科并不是典型的人权倡导者。
Well, I worked in the Pentagon almost seven years, and my last job there was chief of high-value targeting on the joint staff.
嗯，我在五角大楼工作了近七年，我在那里的最后一份工作是联合参谋部高价值目标的负责人。
And basically, that means that I was one of many people that was involved in the tracking and attempted killing of Saddam Hussein and all those people in the deck of cards.
基本上，这意味着我是参与追踪和企图杀害萨达姆·侯赛因以及所有牌组中的人的众多人之一。
And I would sit there with my compatriots and we would put X's on buildings one day, and the next day those buildings are gone.
我会和我的同胞们坐在一起，有一天我们会给建筑物打上“X”，第二天这些建筑物就消失了。
Absolutely, I was involved in the war planning.
当然，我参与了战争策划。
In January of '03 I was involved in the final targeting of Iraq, when we put the final target lists together.
2003 年 1 月，我参与了伊拉克的最终目标制定，当时我们将最终目标清单放在一起。
And of course, those got brushed up as we got closer to the war.
当然，随着战争的临近，这些内容也得到了重新审视。
During the war I was working 18 hours a day, at least, in the Pentagon.
战争期间，我在五角大楼至少每天工作 18 个小时。
You know, putting in hours trying to get and kill Saddam Hussein and others.
你知道，花费数小时试图抓住并杀死萨达姆·侯赛因和其他人。
And after Baghdad fell, then on April the 11 I walked out of the Pentagon and it was a Friday.
巴格达陷落后，4 月 11 日，我走出五角大楼，那是星期五。
And then on Monday morning I walked into Human Rights Watch and suddenly I'm now a human rights advocate.
周一早上，我走进人权观察，突然间我成了一名人权倡导者。
And got on a plane and flew to Iraq to see my handiwork.
然后就坐上了飞机飞往伊拉克去看我的作品。
Literally, it was just the next week.
从字面上看，这只是下周。
Got onto a plane and went to Iraq.
坐上飞机前往伊拉克。
And I was standing there in craters that I had helped cause.
我正站在我一手造成的弹坑里。
Marc doesn't see moving from the Pentagon to a human rights nonprofit as the 180 degree flip most people might.
马克并不认为会像大多数人那样 180 度大转变，从五角大楼转向人权非营利组织。
He says all he's ever wanted to do was fight bad guys, and both organizations do that, just in different ways.
他说他一直想做的就是打击坏人，两个组织都这样做，只是方式不同。
He'd been thinking about leaving the military before the war began and he hadn't supported the war himself.
战争开始前他就一直在考虑离开军队，而且他本人并不支持战争。
But he stayed through the fall of Baghdad because he knew the targets better than anyone else.
但他坚持到了巴格达的陷落，因为他比任何人都更了解目标。
And he figured if there was going to be a war anyway, might as well be him targeting the bombs rather than someone else who might not know or care as much as he did.
他认为，如果无论如何都会爆发战争，那么瞄准炸弹的可能是他，而不是其他可能不像他那么了解或关心的人。
The thing that finally prompted him to leave, he says, didn't have anything to do with the war.
他说，最终促使他离开的事情与战争无关。
His wife got a great job offer at the Bronx Zoo and they'd always wanted to move back to New York.
他的妻子在布朗克斯动物园找到了一份很好的工作机会，他们一直想搬回纽约。
When Marc went with Human Rights Watch to Iraq, it wasn't to get a comprehensive count of civilian casualties.
当马克随人权观察组织前往伊拉克时，并不是为了全面统计平民伤亡情况。
His mission was to look at specific attacks and see which kinds of attacks caused high civilian death tolls.
他的任务是研究具体的袭击事件，看看哪些类型的袭击造成了较高的平民死亡人数。
Because Marc had planned many of the strikes he was now going to investigate, it was a little complicated.
因为马克计划了他现在要调查的许多袭击事件，所以事情有点复杂。
There was the attack on Chemical Ali in Basra and I'll never forget sitting in this tiny cubicle in the bowels of the Pentagon watching it on the television as we had the predator overhead.
巴士拉的阿里化学工厂发生了袭击事件，我永远不会忘记坐在五角大楼内部的这个小隔间里在电视上观看这一事件，因为我们头顶上有掠食者。
And you're watching this black and white screen because it's a night shot and anything that's white is hot and black is cold.
你正在观看这个黑白屏幕，因为这是夜间拍摄，任何白色的东西都是热的，黑色的都是冷的。
And we were watching people walking in front of it and all of a sudden this building just erupts and was gone.
我们看着人们走在它前面，突然间这座建筑就爆发了，消失了。
And we watched as bodies flew out of it.
我们看着尸体从里面飞出来。
And you could see the legs kicking in the air like rag dolls.
你可以看到腿像布娃娃一样在空中踢来踢去。
And we just erupted in cheers and we were ecstatic.
我们爆发出欢呼声，我们欣喜若狂。
You know, here we are, we killed Chemical Ali.
你知道，我们在这里，我们杀死了化学阿里。
This is great.
这太棒了。
And, what is it, three weeks later?
而且，三周后是什么？
I'm standing in the crater with this 70-year-old man who's got tears in his eyes and he's telling me how 17 members of his family, including his grandchildren, were killed.
我和这位 70 岁的老人站在火山口里，他眼里含着泪水，他告诉我他的 17 名家人，包括他的孙辈，是如何被杀害的。
And I still feel very-- I have very mixed emotions about the whole situation, the whole experience.
我仍然对整个情况、整个经历感到非常复杂。
What are those mixed emotions, like on the one side and on the other?
那些复杂的情绪是什么，比如一方面和另一方面？
Well, on the one side, I feel like I took part in this wholesale slaughter of this guy's family, which is very difficult to swallow.
嗯，一方面，我觉得我参与了这家伙全家的大规模屠杀，这是很难接受的。
But on the other side I know that we truly, truly did what we could.
但另一方面，我知道我们确实、确实做了我们能做的。
We were going after some very bad people.
我们正在追捕一些非常坏的人。
You know, war criminals.
你知道，战犯。
Chemical Ali had gassed the Kurds.
化学阿里用毒气毒杀了库尔德人。
He was singularly responsible for thousands of deaths.
他对数千人的死亡负有独特的责任。
And so he was certainly a legitimate military target.
因此他无疑是一个合法的军事目标。
But I think this just goes to show how difficult the job really is.
但我认为这恰恰表明了这项工作到底有多么困难。
You know, this is one of those strikes where we did everything right, where we thought we had the bad guy, where it was weaponeered correctly, and yet, it just was the wrong place to hit at that time and people died for it.
你知道，这是我们做的一切正确的袭击之一，我们认为我们找到了坏人，武器装备正确，然而，当时击中的地方不对，人们因此丧生。
The attack had hit the intended buildings, but it also destroyed the two neighboring buildings.
袭击击中了预定的建筑物，但也摧毁了邻近的两座建筑物。
That's where the man's family had died.
那是该男子的家人去世的地方。
Also, Chemical Ali hadn't been in the targeted building anyway.
而且，阿里化工根本就不在目标建筑内。
It's unclear who died there.
目前还不清楚谁死在那里。
Marc went to lots of places in Iraq he'd studied on maps and aerial photographs and heard about from defectors.
马克去了伊拉克的很多地方，他通过地图和航拍照片研究过，也从叛逃者那里听说过这些地方。
And there's no way around this, after all those years of imagining these places, what they must be like, it was exciting to actually be there.
没有办法解决这个问题，多年来一直在想象这些地方，它们一定是什么样子，真正来到那里真是令人兴奋。
I was walking through bunkers that I knew about.
我正走过我所熟悉的掩体。
I went to Saddam Hussein's bunker.
我去了萨达姆·侯赛因的地堡。
I went to his family's bunkers.
我去了他家的掩体。
One of my favorite moments was when I actually met one of the bunker builders and hired him as a translator.
我最喜欢的时刻之一是当我真正遇到了一位掩体建造者并聘请他作为翻译时。
And he took us into Sajida's palace and Sajida was Saddam's wife.
他带我们参观了萨吉达的宫殿，萨吉达是萨达姆的妻子。
And we knew that there was a bunker under the building and we had targeted it and dropped a weapon into it.
我们知道建筑物下面有一个掩体，我们瞄准了它并向里面扔了一件武器。
And he took me in and we go into the building and I'm seeing the inside for the first time, which had before only been described to me by defectors.
他带我进去，我们走进了大楼，我第一次看到里面的情况，以前只有叛逃者向我描述过。
And here it is and this picture that had been painted in my mind.
这就是我脑海中描绘的这幅图画。
And we get there and the guy says, now I will walk you down to the bunker.
我们到了那里，那个人说，现在我带你去掩体。
And we walked down to it and we get to the bunker.
我们走到了那里，到达了掩体。
And when we look down on it from the top, there's a hole-- as the Penetrator went in-- through the four floors straight down into the bunker.
当我们从顶部往下看时，会发现有一个洞——当穿透者进去时——穿过四层楼，直通地堡。
And he looks at me and he says, whoever did this was a very smart man.
他看着我说，不管是谁干的，他都是一个非常聪明的人。
And I lost it.
我把它弄丢了。
I just completely lost it.
我完全失去了它。
I was like, hey, thanks.
我当时想，嘿，谢谢。
I appreciate it.
我很感激。
The military denied my request to talk on the record about civilian casualties.
军方拒绝了我公开谈论平民伤亡的请求。
But Marc Garlasco says that civilian casualties are one of the primary factors he and his colleagues considered when planning the war.
但马克·加拉斯科表示，平民伤亡是他和他的同事在规划战争时考虑的主要因素之一。
Say he had a target he wanted to take out.
假设他有一个想要干掉的目标。
The headquarters of the Iraqi Secret Service maybe, or one of Saddam's palaces.
也许是伊拉克特勤局的总部，或者是萨达姆的宫殿之一。
He'd work with the weaponeering guys to figure out how many and which bombs to use.
他会与武器工程人员一起确定要使用多少炸弹以及使用哪些炸弹。
And then--
然后——
Once that's established, they'll work up these collateral damage estimates.
一旦确定，他们将计算这些附带损害估计。
And tell you, OK, in this strike 10 people are anticipated to be killed-- civilians.
告诉你，好吧，在这次袭击中预计将有 10 人死亡——平民。
Or 20 civilians, or whatever.
或者 20 个平民，或者其他什么。
And in this war in Iraq, there was a magic number, and the magic number was 30.
而在这场伊拉克战争中，有一个神奇的数字，这个神奇的数字就是30。
And for any target where it was anticipated that 30 civilians or more would be killed, it required the signature of either the President or the Secretary of Defense for that strike to actually occur.
对于任何预计会造成 30 名或以上平民死亡的目标，都需要总统或国防部长签字才能真正实施打击。
How was that magic number arrived at, do you know?
这个神奇的数字是怎么得出的，你知道吗？
I have absolutely no idea how the magic number came to be 30.
我完全不知道这个神奇的数字是怎么变成 30 的。
A lot of times when the collateral damage assessment came back too high, they would try to get it lowered.
很多时候，当附带损害评估结果过高时，他们会试图降低它。
For example, a strike Marc planned early on in the invasion.
例如，马克在入侵初期计划的一次袭击。
An Iraqi division was holed up in a big, multi-building convention center in Baghdad.
一个伊拉克师躲藏在巴格达一座大型多建筑会议中心内。
Which unfortunately, was right across the street from a hospital.
不幸的是，就在医院的街对面。
Now because of the amount of guys there and the construction of the buildings, we knew that they needed to use 2,000 pound bombs.
现在由于那里的人员数量和建筑物的建造，我们知道他们需要使用 2,000 磅的炸弹。
The problem with this is a 2,000 pound bomb has a very large, destructive radius.
问题是 2,000 磅的炸弹具有非常大的破坏半径。
And it certainly would have enveloped the hospital.
它肯定会笼罩整个医院。
But there are things that you can do, even when you're dropping large munitions, to reduce civilian casualties.
但是，即使在投掷大型弹药时，您也可以采取一些措施来减少平民伤亡。
One of those is to change the angle of attack.
其中之一是改变攻击角度。
And so imagine if you will, a plane is coming in and drops bombs at such an angle that they actually push the debris away from the direction of the hospital.
如果你愿意的话，想象一下，一架飞机飞来并以一定角度投掷炸弹，实际上它们将碎片推离了医院的方向。
Additionally, you put a time delayed fuse on it.
此外，您还可以在其上放置一个延时保险丝。
And in this case, I think it was maybe five nano seconds, which is an incredibly short period of time, but it's enough that allows the bomb to bury itself in the ground.
在这种情况下，我认为可能是五纳秒，这是一个非常短的时间段，但足以让炸弹将自己埋在地下。
And what this does is, it basically lets the building implode.
它的作用是，它基本上让建筑物内爆。
And it falls in upon itself and contains a lot of that blast and fragmentation damage that would come out and injure civilians, or destroy some of the hospital.
它会自行塌陷，并包含大量爆炸和碎片损坏，这些损坏会导致平民受伤，或摧毁医院的部分设施。
And then additionally, you're using a penetrating warhead, so it's burying into the ground.
另外，你使用的是穿透弹头，所以它会埋入地下。
So you're not just willy-nilly dropping bombs like in the second world war.
所以你不会像第二次世界大战那样随意投掷炸弹。
And when I got there I went into the hospital and spoke to the director and all the people in there.
当我到达那里时，我走进医院并与院长和医院里的所有人交谈。
And you know, nothing worse than a few broken windows.
你知道，没有什么比几扇破窗户更糟糕的了。
And I was like, wow, this is great.
我当时想，哇，这太棒了。
We did a really good job on this one.
我们在这方面做得非常好。
What got Marc thinking about civilian casualties in the first place was a battle damage assessment he did after the war in Kosovo.
首先让马克思考平民伤亡问题的是他在科索沃战争后所做的战斗损失评估。
He targeted the bombs for that war and then afterwards the military sent him over to see how well he'd done.
他在那场战争中瞄准了炸弹，然后军方派他过去看看他做得如何。
He measured how often the bombs hit their targets, whether they'd destroyed what they were supposed to destroy.
他测量了炸弹击中目标的频率，以及它们是否摧毁了他们应该摧毁的目标。
Pretty much the only thing he didn't check the accuracy of were the collateral damage assessments.
他唯一没有检查准确性的几乎就是附带损害评估。
That's what got me.
这就是吸引我的原因。
That's what really surprised me.
这才是真正令我惊讶的地方。
At no point in time did we ever have to report back on civilian casualties.
我们从来没有必要报告平民伤亡情况。
And so my question has always been, if you're looking if the weapons worked correctly, if the targets were correct, shouldn't you also be asking, were your civilian casualty estimates correct?
所以我的问题一直是，如果你想知道武器是否正常工作，目标是否正确，你难道不应该问，你对平民伤亡的估计是否正确？
I mean, shouldn't that be factored into it to make sure that your models are accurate?
我的意思是，难道不应该将其考虑在内以确保您的模型准确吗？
Because if your models are not accurate, what are they worth?
因为如果你的模型不准确，它们还有什么价值呢？
You know, why do you even bother doing it?
你知道吗，你为什么还要费心去做呢？
Because it's just throwing darts at a board at that point.
因为此时它只是向木板上扔飞镖。
Wow, did you ever find out an answer to that question?
哇，你找到这个问题的答案了吗？
No, but it's something that I keep asking the military now that I'm in Human Rights Watch.
不，但自从我加入人权观察以来，我一直在向军方询问这件事。
You know, when I was there I was wondering, why isn't it done.
你知道，当我在那里时，我想知道为什么还没有完成。
And now I ask them why isn't it done and why don't you do it?
现在我问他们为什么不做，你为什么不做？
And you know, I guess the answer that I get back just hasn't satisfied me.
你知道，我想我得到的答案并不能令我满意。
It's we're still fighting a war in Iraq, it's really hard to do.
我们现在还在打伊拉克战争，这真的很难做到。
Or it's very difficult to account for civilian casualties for a variety of reasons.
或者由于各种原因很难统计平民伤亡情况。
And you get kind of the bureaucratic double talk.
你会得到一种官僚主义的双重谈话。
And it's just not good enough because I've been there and I know that people care and want to do the very best they can.
这还不够好，因为我去过那里，我知道人们关心并希望尽力做到最好。
And they don't want to kill civilians.
他们不想杀害平民。
And here's an opportunity to really make a difference and to show that you're doing your utmost best to make sure that you're upholding the Geneva Convention and not killing people unnecessarily.
这是一个真正发挥作用的机会，并表明您正在尽最大努力确保维护《日内瓦公约》，而不是不必要地杀人。
In talking to people in the military off the record, I heard a couple of arguments against counting civilian deaths.
在与军方人员私下交谈时，我听到了一些反对计算平民死亡人数的论点。
First they say, it's not the military's job.
首先他们说，这不是军队的工作。
If what you're trying to do is win a battle, it could be a dangerous, and in the long run, counterproductive distraction to worry about counting all the civilians you accidentally kill along the way.
如果你想做的是赢得一场战斗，那么担心计算沿途意外杀死的所有平民可能是一种危险的行为，从长远来看，会适得其反。
Second, and perhaps more persuasively, they say no one would believe them anyway.
其次，也许更有说服力的是，他们说无论如何没有人会相信他们。
Just ask Les Roberts.
只要问问莱斯·罗伯茨就知道了。
Even though Les' study didn't get much mainstream attention, it did provoke, like so many things these days, a bitter debate on the internet.
尽管莱斯的研究没有引起主流关注，但它确实像当今的许多事情一样在互联网上引发了激烈的争论。
The attacks came mainly, though not exclusively, from right wing blogs.
这些攻击主要（但并非全部）来自右翼博客。
Several charges leveled that the study were simply untrue and seemed designed to willfully muddy the waters.
多项指控指出，这项研究根本不真实，似乎是故意搅浑水。
For example, there was a claim repeatedly made, both in the press and online, that the data weren't random because the researchers had been blocked from going certain places, or had decided against certain places because it was too dangerous.
例如，媒体和网上不断有人声称这些数据不是随机的，因为研究人员被禁止前往某些地方，或者因为太危险而决定不去某些地方。
This is simply false.
这根本就是错误的。
A couple people suggested that the researchers had gone to Fallujah on purpose to boost their numbers, even though exactly the opposite was true.
一些人认为研究人员去费卢杰是故意增加他们的数量，尽管事实恰恰相反。
Les had wanted to skip Fallujah altogether and they hadn't even included the data in their final casualty estimate.
莱斯本来想完全跳过费卢杰，但他们甚至没有将这些数据纳入最终的伤亡估计中。
Several objections had merit, though.
不过，一些反对意见也有其道理。
First of all, the study makes no distinction between combatants and civilians.
首先，该研究没有区分战斗人员和平民。
Les actually acknowledged this in the study itself and went to great lengths not to claim, as others did on his behalf, that the study was a measure of civilian mortality.
莱斯实际上在研究本身中承认了这一点，并且竭尽全力没有像其他人代表他那样声称该研究是对平民死亡率的衡量。
Certainly, some of the people the coalition killed they intended to kill.
当然，联军杀害的一些人是他们有意杀害的。
But half of all the casualties were women and children, so even in the unlikely event that 50% of the men who died were actually fighting us, it's still a large number of innocents.
但所有伤亡者中有一半是妇女和儿童，所以即使在不太可能发生的情况下，50% 的死者实际上是在与我们作战，但仍然有大量无辜者。
The critique that got most traction on the internet though, has to do with something called the confidence interval.
然而，在互联网上最受关注的批评与所谓的置信区间有关。
Let's take an election poll as an example.
让我们以选举民意调查为例。
If candidate X is projected to receive 55% of the vote, what that really means is that he's projected to receive some percentage within two numbers.
如果候选人 X 预计将获得 55% 的选票，这实际上意味着他预计将获得两个数字之间的某个百分比。
Let's say 52% and 58%.
比方说 52% 和 58%。
That range is called the confidence interval.
该范围称为置信区间。
The confidence interval in Les' survey was very wide, between 8,000 and 194,000.
Les 调查的置信区间非常宽，在 8,000 到 194,000 之间。
It was this wide for a lot of reasons, but mainly because the sample is relatively small relative to the population, and because violent death, unlike death due to malaria or diarrhea, isn't very uniformly distributed.
造成如此广泛的原因有很多，但主要是因为样本相对于人口而言相对较小，而且与疟疾或腹泻导致的死亡不同，暴力死亡的分布并不十分均匀。
So you have Kurdish areas where mortality actually went down during the war versus Fallujah, which averaged almost two violent deaths per household.
因此，库尔德地区的死亡率在战争期间实际上比费卢杰下降了，费卢杰平均每个家庭几乎有两人因暴力死亡。
Such a wide confidence interval means that statistically speaking, Les' estimate of 100,000 dead isn't very precise.
如此宽的置信区间意味着从统计角度来看，Les 对 100,000 人死亡的估计并不十分准确。
The number could be thousands or tens of thousand smaller.
这个数字可能少数千或数万。
Or equally likely, bigger.
或者同样可能，更大。
But a lot of people made wrong conclusions from the wide confidence interval.
但很多人从宽置信区间得出了错误的结论。
They interpreted it to mean it was just as likely that 8,000 people had died as it was that 100,000 had.
他们将其解释为意味着 8,000 人死亡的可能性与 100,000 人死亡的可能性相同。
The online magazine, Slate , wrote "This isn't an estimate, it's a dart board." In fact, the likelihood follows a bell curve, with 98,000 being at the top of the bell, the most likely number.
在线杂志 Slate 写道：“这不是估计，而是飞镖盘。”事实上，可能性遵循钟形曲线，98,000 位于钟形顶部，是最有可能的数字。
So actually, there's only a 2.5% chance that the number is 8,000 or below, but a 90% chance that it's 44,000 or above.
因此，实际上，该数字只有 2.5% 的机会为 8,000 或以下，但有 90% 的机会为 44,000 或以上。
Here's Les.
这是莱斯。
A couple of people told me that Sunday before the election, their minister from the pulpit had said this study in The Lancet was flawed and wrong.
有几个人告诉我，选举前的周日，他们的部长在讲坛上表示，《柳叶刀》上的这项研究是有缺陷和错误的。
And my next door neighbor, who was listening to talk radio, spoke to me the day of the election and she said, well I just heard on talk radio today that The Lancet study finding 8,000 Iraqi deaths was flawed and wrong.
我的隔壁邻居正在听谈话广播，她在选举当天对我说，我今天刚刚在谈话广播中听到《柳叶刀》的研究发现 8,000 名伊拉克人死亡是有缺陷和错误的。
And so it was discussed, but I don't think it was discussed in a very sort of scientifically rigorous process.
所以它被讨论了，但我不认为它是在一个非常科学严谨的过程中讨论的。
Clearly, the people on talk radio weren't attacking the study out of a commitment to experimental rigor.
显然，谈话电台的人们并不是出于对实验严谨性的承诺而攻击这项研究。
They were attacking it for the same reason that the news media was hesitant to report it.
他们攻击它的原因与新闻媒体犹豫是否报道它的原因相同。
Because the very act of counting civilian casualties is political.
因为统计平民伤亡的行为本身就是政治性的。
The moral logic of war is this.
战争的道德逻辑就是这样。
We're willing to undergo X number of costs in lives, money, resources, to accomplish some goal.
为了实现某个目标，我们愿意付出X数量的生命、金钱、资源成本。
The goal we hope will be worth it in the end.
我们希望这个目标最终是值得的。
So assuming the goal in Iraq is good, is it wrong to kill 100,000 civilians?
那么假设伊拉克的目标是好的，那么杀死10万平民是错误的吗？
Saddam, himself, probably killed 230,000 of his own people.
萨达姆本人可能杀害了 23 万自己的人民。
A number, by the way, no one seems to go out of their way to dispute.
顺便说一句，似乎没有人会特意去争论这个数字。
If you add the million or so lives he lost in the futile war he launched against Iran, 100,000 seems like a bargain in comparison.
如果算上他在对伊朗发起的这场徒劳的战争中失去的大约一百万人的生命，相比之下，十万人似乎很划算。
Maybe he would have gone another killing spree and this 100,000 is insurance against the later, far worse death toll.
也许他会再次疯狂杀戮，而这 100,000 人是防止后来更严重的死亡人数的保险。
Or Maybe 100,000 lives is worth it if in the end, democracy does blossom through the Middle East.
或者，如果最终民主确实在中东开花结果，也许十万人的生命是值得的。
After all, we killed far more Japanese with just two atomic bombs than, according to Les, we did in a year and a half in Iraq.
毕竟，根据莱斯的说法，我们仅仅用两颗原子弹杀死的日本人就比我们在伊拉克一年半的时间里杀死的日本人还要多。
If we don't count civilian casualties, we don't have to get into this kind of horrible math.
如果我们不计算平民伤亡，我们就不必进行这种可怕的数学计算。
And most of us don't want to.
而我们大多数人都不愿意。
So instead, we leave it to the professionals.
因此，我们将其留给专业人士。
The military are the only ones who even try to come up with a formula, the collateral damage assessment.
军方是唯一尝试提出附带损害评估公式的人。
30 dead civilians for 1 bad guy.
1个坏人导致30名平民死亡。
For Les, he doesn't really care who counts, just so long as someone does.
对于莱斯来说，他并不真正关心谁重要，只要有人重要就行。
Under the Geneva Conventions, an occupying army's relationship to the occupied is roughly the same as a police department's relationship to its population.
根据《日内瓦公约》，占领军与被占领者的关系大致相当于警察部门与其民众的关系。
And in my hometown if a policeman pulls out his gun and shoots six shots at someone, another policeman will come and try to find where each of those six bullets landed and decide, was this excessive use of force?
在我的家乡，如果一名警察拔出枪向某人开了六枪，另一名警察会过来尝试找出这六颗子弹分别落在哪里，然后判断这是否过度使用武力？
Well, how can we say that we are really looking after the well being of the Iraqi people, if we don't sort of go through some sort of minimal effort to decide, what are we doing to them and what can we do to limit the adverse consequences?
那么，如果我们不经过某种最小的努力来决定我们对他们做了什么以及我们能做些什么来限制不利后果，我们怎么能说我们真正关心伊拉克人民的福祉呢？
One of the most surprising things Les discovered in Iraq is that despite what everyone says about the difficulty of counting civilian casualties during wartime, it's actually not that hard.
莱斯在伊拉克发现的最令人惊讶的事情之一是，尽管每个人都说战时统计平民伤亡很困难，但实际上并不那么困难。
The survey teams got participation rates that most American pollsters would kill for.
调查小组得到的参与率是大多数美国民意调查机构所渴望的。
Only 5 of the 988 households the team surveyed refused to answer the questions.
团队调查的988户家庭中，只有5户拒绝回答问题。
And people were able to provide death certificates over 80% of the time.
超过 80% 的情况下人们能够提供死亡证明。
That confidence interval?
那个置信区间？
Les is sure that based on the results of the first survey and with a little more money-- remember, this whole thing cost only $40,000-- he could design a follow-up survey that would narrow that interval way down.
莱斯确信，根据第一次调查的结果，再加上一点钱——记住，整个事情只花了 40,000 美元——他可以设计一项后续调查，从而缩小这一区间。
We can count civilian casualties in wartime, we just have to want to.
我们可以统计战时的平民伤亡，只要我们愿意就可以。
Alex Blumberg.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格。
Coming up, so a military that's trying as hard as it can not to kill civilians makes a mistake.
即将到来，因此，一支竭尽全力不杀害平民的军队犯了一个错误。
What do they do then?
然后他们做什么呢？
Well, we have a recording to play for you of what they do then.
好吧，我们有一段录音可以给你播放他们当时所做的事情。
In a minute, from Chicago Public Radio and Public Radio International, when our program continues.
稍后，芝加哥公共广播电台和国际公共广播电台将继续我们的节目。
It's This American Life , I'm Ira Glass.
这就是美国生活，我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Each week on our program, of course, we choose some theme, bring you a variety of different kinds of stories on that theme.
当然，每周我们的节目都会选择一些主题，为您带来关于该主题的各种不同类型的故事。
Today's program, What's in a Number?
今天的节目《数字有什么？》
In act one of our program we heard about the number of Iraqi deaths that occurred in the first year and a half of the war there.
在我们的节目第一幕中，我们了解到伊拉克战争第一年半的死亡人数。
And how the majority of those deaths, according to this Johns Hopkins study, were caused by US led forces.
根据约翰·霍普金斯大学的这项研究，大多数死亡是由美国领导的部队造成的。
Now we're going to move to act two, where we hear US forces trying to cope in the aftermath of some of those deaths.
现在我们要进入第二幕，在那里我们听到美军试图应对其中一些死亡事件的后果。
This is act two, Not just a Number.
这是第二幕，而不仅仅是一个数字。
The civilian deaths in this particular story came at a unusually bad time for captain Ryan Gist.
对于瑞安·吉斯特船长来说，这个特殊故事中的平民死亡发生在一个异常糟糕的时刻。
He was the American officer in charge of the US army presence in a section of the Nineveh and Salahuddin Provinces in Iraq, a Sunni area.
他是负责驻扎在伊拉克尼尼微省和萨拉赫丁省部分逊尼派地区的美军的美国军官。
And this meant that he dealt with everything from seeing that the region had water and fuel, to dislodging insurgents and winning over the local population.
这意味着他要处理一切事情，从确保该地区有水和燃料，到驱逐叛乱分子和赢得当地民众的支持。
He faced all sorts of problems.
他面临着各种各样的问题。
On November 10, 2004, for example, insurgents blew up most of the police stations in his area.
例如，2004 年 11 月 10 日，叛乱分子炸毁了他所在地区的大部分警察局。
And the next day, Iraqi army and police simply stopped showing up for their jobs.
第二天，伊拉克军队和警察就不再上班了。
One town called Aitha was especially troublesome.
一个叫艾莎的小镇尤其麻烦。
US had not made many allies there.
美国在那里没有结交很多盟友。
And it was turning into probably the greatest threat to stability in our region.
它可能正在成为对我们地区稳定的最大威胁。
So to begin with, we knew we were going into a very hot spot.
首先，我们知道我们将进入一个非常热点的领域。
We went in and for weeks we'd go in there and we would try and talk to leaders, try and talk to people.
我们进去了几周，我们会尝试与领导者交谈，尝试与人们交谈。
And they were scared.
他们很害怕。
The terrorists literally had a grip on everybody.
恐怖分子确实控制了所有人。
And that is the challenge in Iraq.
这就是伊拉克面临的挑战。
And what it takes is just feet on the ground every day going to different houses and just talking to people.
所需要的只是每天脚踏实地去不同的房子并与人们交谈。
And finally, we found someone whose family had been killed, every one of them had been killed by the terrorists within the last month, and he wanted revenge.
最后，我们找到了一个人，他的家人都被杀了，他们每个人都是在上个月内被恐怖分子杀害的，他想要报仇。
And he wanted to see his town free of this threat.
他希望看到他的城镇摆脱这种威胁。
So the guy gives him names and locations of people that he identifies as insurgents, and the army launches an operation to get those people.
于是，这个人向他提供了他认为是叛乱分子的人的姓名和位置，然后军队发起了一项行动来抓捕这些人。
And this is where things went wrong.
这就是问题所在。
As part of this operation, US forces were supposed to drop a bomb into a nearby field just as a show of force.
作为这次行动的一部分，美军应该向附近的田野投掷一枚炸弹，以展示武力。
But instead, the bomb was dropped onto the house that the army was just about to raid, killing 12 people inside, including children.
但炸弹却落到了军队正要突袭的房子上，炸死了里面的 12 人，其中包括儿童。
And nearly killing the US troops who were about to go in.
还险些杀掉准备进去的美军。
That's according to an American photojournalist, Sheryl Mendez, who was there.
这是当时在场的美国摄影记者谢丽尔·门德斯 (Sheryl Mendez) 的说法。
In addition to the human tragedy of these deaths, for Captain Gist this could not have been worse.
除了这些死亡造成的人类悲剧之外，对于吉斯特船长来说，这再糟糕不过了。
It was the hardest time in my life.
那是我一生中最艰难的时刻。
And the most difficult part for us was in the weeks afterwards.
对我们来说最困难的部分是之后的几周。
We had to show that it was an accident and that we are someone who can be trusted and we are here to help them.
我们必须证明这是一次意外，我们是值得信任的人，我们是来帮助他们的。
The photographer Sheryl Mendez tape recorded him as he went to the sheiks who were the local leaders and to the police, as he went around trying to make things right.
摄影师谢丽尔·门德斯（Sheryl Mendez）用磁带记录了他去找当地领袖酋长和警察的过程，以及他到处试图纠正事情的过程。
Here's one of those recordings.
这是其中一段录音。
He's in a police station.
他在警察局。
I'm here for a couple reasons today.
我今天来这里有几个原因。
The first reason is to express my regrets to you.
第一个原因是想向您表达我的歉意。
[SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE] Ryan Gist I feel much pain in my heart for what happened.
[说外语] Ryan Gist 对于所发生的事情我感到非常痛苦。
[SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE] Ryan Gist We did not intend to hurt any innocent people here.
[说外语] Ryan Gist 我们无意伤害这里任何无辜的人。
[SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE] Ryan Gist We did not mean for any women and children to die.
[说外语] Ryan Gist 我们并不想让任何妇女和儿童死去。
[SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE] Ryan Gist I had men hurt in the explosion as well.
[说外语] Ryan Gist 我也有人在爆炸中受伤。
[SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE] Ryan Gist You're sitting there in a room with five, six, seven people that are definitely angry at you.
[说外语] Ryan Gist 你坐在一个房间里，周围有五、六、七个人，他们肯定对你很生气。
They believe you did it intentionally.
他们相信你是故意的。
That hate you for being in the town in the first place.
他们一开始就讨厌你在城里。
This is a very sad situation.
这是一个非常悲伤的情况。
Translator [SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE]
翻译【外语】
It's also important that I get all the facts and all the names from you because we will compensate the families of those who were killed and wounded.
同样重要的是，我要从你们那里得到所有的事实和所有的名字，因为我们将赔偿死伤者的家人。
And what I just kept repeating and kept saying was, what happened was a horrible mistake.
我只是不断重复并不断说的是，所发生的事情是一个可怕的错误。
And I want to make amends in whatever way that I can.
我想尽我所能来弥补。
I know that we cannot bring thdm back, only Allah can do that.
我知道我们无法让 thdm 回来，只有真主才能做到这一点。
[SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE] Ryan Gist But I hope to be able to help with the healing process.
[说外语] Ryan Gist 但我希望能够帮助康复过程。
[SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE] Ryan Gist And I'm also here to ensure this does not destroy the relationship we've established with the people of Aitha.
[说外语] Ryan Gist 我来这里也是为了确保这不会破坏我们与艾莎人民建立的关系。
[SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE] Ryan Gist I know there's a lot to do to rebuild this relationship and this is my first step.
[说外语] Ryan Gist 我知道要重建这种关系还有很多工作要做，这是我的第一步。
But it's also very important that I get all the facts here.
但我在这里了解所有事实也非常重要。
Right now I have 12 names of those who were killed and three that were wounded, so I think I'm missing one here.
现在我有 12 名遇难者和 3 名受伤者的名字，所以我想我这里漏掉了一个。
It seems like such an incredibly awkward thing having to do.
这似乎是一件非常尴尬的事情。
I don't think awkward is at all the word you would use to describe something like this.
我认为“尴尬”这个词根本不适合用来形容这样的事情。
It was, I mean, possibly the most emotional event of my life, going out and dealing with these people in such incredible grief.
我的意思是，这可能是我一生中最激动人心的事件，带着难以置信的悲伤走出去与这些人打交道。
Noman Huessein?
诺曼·侯赛因？
Afmed Noman?
艾夫迈德·诺曼？
Man 1 No [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE].
男人 1 不[难以理解的短语]。
[SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE].
[说外语]。
Man 2 Noman.
男人2诺曼.
Azizah.
阿齐扎。
Azizah, that's a woman, you don't know who she is?
阿兹莎，那是个女人，你不知道她是谁吗？
What happened after that?
之后发生了什么？
Ryan Gist Well, this took about-- the way it works in the Arabic culture is there's about a 7 to 10 day mourning period, or grieving period after the death.
Ryan Gist 嗯，这发生了——它在阿拉伯文化中的运作方式是，死后有大约 7 到 10 天的哀悼期，或悲伤期。
So of course, I wanted to go in there.
所以我当然想去那里。
We're Americans.
我们是美国人。
We want to go in, we want to fix it immediately.
我们想进去，我们想立即修复它。
I wanted to go in there and make the payments to the families and talk to them and express our regrets.
我想去那里向家人付款并与他们交谈并表达我们的遗憾。
So the hardest thing for me was I couldn't go into the town for seven days.
所以对我来说最困难的是我7天不能进城。
So it was incredibly difficult for me.
所以这对我来说非常困难。
Because during those 7 to 10 days you're thinking, these people are deciding they hate us and they're spending word about how we killed these people, like it's just the worst thing from a propaganda point of view and winning over people's hearts.
因为在这 7 到 10 天里，你会想，这些人决定恨我们，他们大肆宣扬我们如何杀害这些人，从宣传的角度来看，这是最糟糕的事情，并赢得了人心。
That's what your fear is?
这就是你的恐惧？
That's part of the fear.
这是恐惧的一部分。
But also, I'm a human being.
但同时，我也是一个人。
I'm an American.
我是美国人。
I want to get in there and I want these people to understand that we are good people and we are here to help them.
我想进入那里，我希望这些人明白我们是好人，我们是来帮助他们的。
So really, at that point, I'm sure you can hear it in my voice there, is that I know I can't fix it, I know I can't bring them back, but I want to make it better.
所以说真的，在这一点上，我相信你可以从我的声音中听到，我知道我无法解决它，我知道我无法让它们回来，但我想让它变得更好。
But out of respect, we waited 7 to 10 days, went to neighboring towns and villages and told them what was going on, and got the message out.
但出于尊重，我们等了7到10天，去了邻近的城镇和村庄，告诉他们发生了什么事，并把消息传达出去。
And I know the message got to the people in the town.
我知道镇上的人们都知道了这个信息。
But then the following three weeks, we went in and did exactly what we were doing before.
但接下来的三周，我们开始做我们之前做的事情。
Was meet with people, and begin to develop, or rebuild relationships.
与人见面，并开始发展或重建关系。
And we continued to conduct operations, continued to pull bad guys out of the town.
我们继续开展行动，继续把坏人赶出城。
This is pretty much the standard way that he'd operate in these villages.
这几乎是他在这些村庄里的标准运作方式。
He said, sure, there were some villages and local leaders who were sympathetic with the insurgents.
他说，当然，有一些村庄和地方领导人同情叛乱分子。
But in other places, they were being bossed around by them.
但在其他地方，却被他们摆布。
A couple of terrorists who intimidated the leaders of that village could effectively control the entire village.
几个恐吓村里领导的恐怖分子就可以有效控制整个村子。
People were scared to leave their houses.
人们害怕离开家园。
Kids stayed in the houses.
孩子们住在房子里。
Kids didn't go to school.
孩子们没有去上学。
So when you went in and you took those guys out, and you came back and said, yeah, I just caught this guy, this guy, and this guy.
所以当你进去把那些人带出去，然后你回来说，是的，我刚刚抓住了这个人，这个人，还有这个人。
And I found all kinds of explosives, threat CDs, beheading CDs in their house, they're gone.
而且我在他们家里发现了各种爆炸物、威胁光盘、斩首光盘，都没有了。
They're never coming back.
他们永远不会回来了。
And the most incredible thing was you saw the change within a day.
最令人难以置信的是你在一天之内就看到了变化。
Within 24 or 48 hours, you would go back into that town and a town where kids would not even wave to you or kids would throw rocks at you, you'd go in the next day and they would be crowded around the humvees just wanting to touch you or talk to you.
在 24 或 48 小时内，你会回到那个小镇，那里的孩子们甚至不会向你挥手，或者孩子们会向你扔石头，第二天你进去，他们会挤在悍马车周围，只想碰你或和你说话。
In Aitha, he says, people waited to see who was going to win-- the US led forces or the insurgents.
他说，在艾莎，人们等着看谁会获胜——美国领导的军队还是叛乱分子。
Until there came a turning point.
直到一个转折点出现。
There was a distinct turning point.
有一个明显的转折点。
The turning point was when the sheik of the town came to see me, which would never have happened before.
转折点是镇上的酋长来看我，这在以前是绝对不会发生的。
And do you remember what he said at the beginning, like so as to explain?
你还记得他一开始说的话，比如解释吗？
What do you remember of what he said?
他说的话你还记得什么？
What he said was I need your help.
他说的是我需要你的帮助。
And that was it right there.
就是这样。
I knew what was going to come after that.
我知道之后会发生什么。
You know, just thinking about that accidental bombing, the way that it ended up working out, did that accidental bombing actually give you access to people and a way to meet with them and a reason to meet with them that you might not have had otherwise?
你知道，只要想想那次意外爆炸事件，以及它最终的结果，那次意外爆炸事件是否真的让你能够接触到人们、与他们会面的方式以及与他们会面的理由，否则你可能不会有这样的机会？
It wasn't that it gave us a reason to.
这并不是说它给了我们这样做的理由。
We had a reason to, we're going to be in the town regardless.
我们有理由这样做，无论如何我们都会留在城里。
But it forced them to listen to us because they were so hurt by the incident and they began to understand what we were there for.
但这迫使他们听我们的，因为他们因这起事件而深受伤害，他们开始理解我们在那里的目的。
And they eventually offered us forgiveness and asked for our help.
他们最终向我们表示宽恕并请求我们的帮助。
And to this day, I probably have the strongest bond with that town than any other town over there.
直到今天，我与那个小镇的联系可能比那里的任何其他小镇都最牢固。
Of course, a month later, I knew we were going to have elections in the town.
当然，一个月后，我知道我们将在镇上举行选举。
The town was secured by Iraqi security forces and it seemed like every five minutes the Iraqi security forces were coming under fire, we were coming under fire.
该镇由伊拉克安全部队保护，似乎每五分钟伊拉克安全部队就会受到攻击，我们也会受到攻击。
The most incredible thing was the Iraqi security forces held their ground.
最令人难以置信的是伊拉克安全部队坚守阵地。
They fought the terrorists off.
他们击退了恐怖分子。
A lot of fire, very intense night.
火势很大，夜晚非常激烈。
And then that morning, about 4:00 in the morning, I remember sitting on the hill, all the American forces pulled out in the morning, so the Iraqi security forces could secure the actual election site during voting.
然后那天早上，大约凌晨 4:00，我记得坐在山上，所有美军都在早上撤出，这样伊拉克安全部队就可以在投票时确保实际的选举地点。
I remember sitting on a hill overlooking the town of Aitha and the sun started to come up, and all of a sudden I realized, there was a line of about 1,000 people in front of the polling site.
我记得坐在一座小山上俯瞰艾莎镇，太阳开始升起，突然我意识到投票站前有大约1000人的队伍。
The whole town almost came out to vote.
全镇的人几乎都出来投票了。
It was absolutely incredible.
这绝对令人难以置信。
Captain Ryan Gist and the 65 men that he commands returned safely to their base in Fort Lewis, Washington, at the end of last month.
瑞安·吉斯特上尉和他指挥的 65 名士兵于上月底安全返回华盛顿州路易斯堡的基地。
Act three.
第三幕。
What do we do with these numbers anyway?
无论如何，我们如何处理这些数字呢？
So if in fact, 100,000 Iraqis died because of the war, and that number is a year old, or at least like Alex said in his report, there's a 90% probability that at the time it was over 44,000 dead, what do we do with that number?
因此，如果事实上有 100,000 名伊拉克人因战争而死亡，而这个数字已经有一年了，或者至少像 Alex 在他的报告中所说，有 90% 的可能性当时死亡人数超过 44,000 人，我们该如何处理这个数字呢？
You know, the problem at the heart of the whole thing is that it instantly brings you to all of these imponderable questions about what is worth it.
你知道，整个事情的核心问题是它立即让你想到所有这些关于什么值得的难以估量的问题。
What is worth so many people dead?
到底是什么值得死这么多人？
And in a way, once I understood this number and believed this number, I wasn't even sure if it's a helpful thing to think about that.
在某种程度上，一旦我理解了这个数字并相信了这个数字，我什至不确定思考这个数字是否有帮助。
What do you do with that?
你用它做什么？
So I called a woman named Nancy Sherman, who has the unusual set of jobs of being a philosophy professor at Georgetown University.
于是我给一位名叫南希·谢尔曼的女士打了电话，她的工作非比寻常，是乔治城大学的哲学教授。
And also, she's taught ethics at the US Naval Academy.
而且，她还在美国海军学院教授伦理学。
She interviews military people, she writes about how they think in books like Stoic Warriors , and she thinks you do want to know how many civilians die in a war, so you can understand the trade-offs.
她采访了军人，在《斯多葛勇士》等书中写下了他们的想法，她认为你确实想知道有多少平民在战争中死亡，这样你就可以理解其中的权衡。
Now, many would argue that once you include the numbers of civilians killed, the trade-offs don't start looking so good.
现在，许多人会争辩说，一旦算上被杀的平民人数，权衡就不会看起来那么好。
But of course, then there's the problem, what exactly are we measuring against?
但当然，问题来了，我们到底在衡量什么？
What's the good we're bringing about in the name of which violence is incurred?
我们以暴力之名带来什么好处？
Right.
正确的。
And that's where you get into such immeasurable things.
这就是你接触到如此不可估量的事情的地方。
Because if, in fact, a democracy is created in the Mideast and it changes the whole shape of the Mideast--
因为事实上，如果中东建立了民主制度，它就会改变中东的整体形态——
That's right.
没错。
But these goals and goods have to be tangible and there has to be evidence.
但这些目标和成果必须是有形的，并且必须有证据。
I know, but the thing that seems so hard is we're measuring an actual concrete number against a benefit that really can't be measured at all.
我知道，但看起来如此困难的是我们正在衡量一个实际的具体数字和一个根本无法衡量的好处。
If by changing the shape of the Middle East we prevent a nuclear attack on New York City, or Cairo, or just anywhere, then it just changes the equation.
如果通过改变中东的格局，我们可以防止对纽约市、开罗或任何地方的核攻击，那么它只会改变方程式。
And it seems like what you've got is you've got a certain number of dead bodies on one side, and then a future that's yet unlived on the other.
看起来你所拥有的就是一侧有一定数量的尸体，而另一侧则是尚未出现的未来。
Exactly.
确切地。
These kinds of calculations about how much cost can you incur in order to get a good at the end are very, very troublesome.
这些关于你最终需要花费多少成本才能得到好的东西的计算是非常非常麻烦的。
Because when you're doing these kinds of calculations, you'd like to have a concrete good that's here and now existing.
因为当您进行此类计算时，您希望拥有此时此地存在的具体商品。
Numbers are always tricky, but the massiveness of numbers does matter.
数字总是很棘手，但数字的庞大确实很重要。
And when does the moral psyche break, at what number?
道德心理何时崩溃，崩溃的次数是多少？
I don't know.
我不知道。
Tell me about Darfur.
跟我说说达尔富尔的事吧。
The world hasn't broken on that number yet and that seems pretty horrific to me.
世界还没有达到这个数字，这对我来说似乎相当可怕。
Nancy Sherman from Georgetown University.
乔治城大学的南希·谢尔曼。
Well, our program was produced today by Lisa Pollak and myself with Alex Blumberg, Diane Cook, Jane Feltes, Sarah Koenig and Amy O'Leary.
好吧，我们今天的节目是由丽莎·波拉克（Lisa Pollak）和我本人以及亚历克斯·布隆伯格（Alex Blumberg）、黛安·库克（Diane Cook）、简·费尔特斯（Jane Feltes）、莎拉·科尼格（Sarah Koenig）和艾米·奥利里（Amy O'Leary）制作的。
Our senior producer is Julie Snyder.
我们的高级制片人是朱莉·斯奈德。
Elizabeth Meister runs our website.
伊丽莎白·梅斯特 (Elizabeth Meister) 负责运营我们的网站。
Production help from Sam Hallgren and Chris Ladd.
Sam Hallgren 和 Chris Ladd 为制作提供帮助。
[ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS] You can download today's program at our archives at audible.com/thisamericanlife.
[鸣谢] 您可以在我们的档案库 audible.com/thisamericanlife 下载今天的节目。
This American Life is distributed by Public Radio International.
《美国生活》由国际公共广播电台发行。
[FUNDING CREDITS] WBEZ management oversight for our program by Mr. Torey Malatia.
[资金来源] Torey Malatia 先生对我们的项目进行 WBEZ 管理监督。
You know, whenever he finishes a budget or correctly orders lunch, he calls me into his office, leans back in his chair--
你知道，每当他完成预算或正确订购午餐时，他都会把我叫到他的办公室，靠在椅子上——
And he looks me and he says, whoever did this was a very smart man.
他看着我说，不管是谁干的，他都是一个非常聪明的人。
I'm Ira Glass, back next week with more stories of This American Life.
我是艾拉·格拉斯，下周回来，带来更多《美国生活》的故事。
This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.
《This American Life》与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。