265: Fake Science - This American Life
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00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #265 | May 21, 2004 265: Fake Science Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.
00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 265 集 | 2004 年 5 月 21 日 265：假科学 注：《美国生活》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。
If you are able, we strongly encourage you to listen to the audio, which includes emotion and emphasis that's not on the page.
如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。
Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.
文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。
Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.
请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。
Prologue Ira Glass From WBEZ Chicago, it is another hour of high-minded radio broadcasting distributed by Public Radio International, which is to say, it's This American Life , which is to say, hello.
序言 Ira Glass 来自 WBEZ 芝加哥，这是国际公共广播电台发行的又一个小时的高调广播，也就是说，这是《美国生活》，也就是说，你好。
It's post time.
发帖时间到了。
It's opening day at Arlington Racetrack just outside Chicago.
芝加哥郊外的阿灵顿赛马场今天开幕。
And maybe because of the rain, maybe because not that many adults can come out to the track in the middle of a weekday, there are just four guys, regulars, in one of the rooms reserved for regulars.
也许是因为下雨的原因，也许是因为没有那么多成年人可以在工作日的中间来到赛道上，所以在为常客保留的一间房间里只有四个人，常客。
Four guys in a spacious room with what have to be 20 television monitors.
四个人在一个宽敞的房间里，房间里有 20 个电视监视器。
The way we measure these horses is very mathematical and very scientific.
我们测量这些马的方法非常数学化且非常科学。
This is Roger Vice.
这是罗杰·维斯。
Really, that's his name, Mr. Vice.
真的，这就是他的名字，副先生。
A guy who makes his living betting on the horses.
一个以赌马为生的人。
The kind of disciplined guy who gives the impression that maybe his goatee and his clothes never get messy.
那种自律的家伙给人的印象是他的山羊胡和他的衣服永远不会变得凌乱。
What I do is, each race-- you see all these marks on my program?
我所做的是，每场比赛——你在我的程序上看到所有这些标记了吗？
These are a tracking of where the horse was on the turn.
这些是对马在转弯时的位置的跟踪。
OK?
好的？
So I keep track of where every horse was on that turn.
所以我会记录每匹马在该回合的位置。
I keep track of the wind-- the direction, the velocity.
我跟踪风——方向、速度。
I time every race.
我为每场比赛计时。
Mr. Vice shows me a product called Thoro-Graph which is basically a computerized analysis and printout of speed ratings and histories for each horse, and a cheat sheet that he made for himself with other data which gets surprisingly precise and technical.
Vice 先生向我展示了一款名为 Thoro-Graph 的产品，该产品基本上是对每匹马的速度评级和历史记录进行计算机分析和打印，以及他用其他数据为自己制作的备忘单，其精确性和技术性令人惊讶。
So if a horse is three wide, you think about the laws of physics, the horse that's three wide is running a greater distance.
因此，如果一匹马的宽度是三倍，那么你会考虑物理定律，三倍宽度的马跑得更远。
OK?
好的？
We factor that in mathematically.
我们用数学方法将其考虑在内。
We disagree a lot.
我们有很多不同意见。
In fact, all of these guys disagree with me most of the time.
事实上，所有这些人大多数时候都不同意我的观点。
Mike is retired from the Post Office, and his table is the messiest one in the room.
迈克从邮局退休了，他的桌子是房间里最乱的一张。
Three of the guys here on opening day, Craig, Jeff, and Mr. Vice, all do this very technical analysis to make their bets.
开幕当天这里的三个人，克雷格、杰夫和副先生，都进行了非常技术性的分析来进行投注。
Mike is the outcast.
迈克是被遗弃的人。
I have my own system.
我有自己的系统。
My system-- I find that betting favorites, in the long run, you end up losing money.
我的系统——我发现投注热门，从长远来看，你最终会赔钱。
Most of my horses are in the 20, 30 to one shots range.
我的大多数马匹的射击命中率都在 20、30 比 1 范围内。
So I don't bet a lot of races here every day.
所以我每天不会在这里投注很多比赛。
Betting only long shots makes him really different from Jeff, who puts a lot of bets out there looking for a small percentage return.
只下注远投使他与杰夫完全不同，杰夫下了很多赌注寻求小比例的回报。
And from Craig, who plays more favorites, and who overhears Mike describing his system to me and then turns to me and says, you ever read the book One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest?
还有克雷格，他更喜欢玩，他无意中听到迈克向我描述他的系统，然后转向我说，你读过《飞越疯人院》这本书吗？
That's Mike's system.
这就是迈克的系统。
And in the eighth race, I get to see Mike's system in action.
在第八场比赛中，我看到了迈克的系统的运作。
Well, this is my best bet of the day is Intrinsic Worth in the eighth.
好吧，这是我今天最好的赌注，内在价值是第八。
I like the trainer.
我喜欢教练。
Honestly, but I might not even bet on him because he might be too short for me.
老实说，但我什至可能不会在他身上打赌，因为他对我来说可能太矮了。
Right.
正确的。
If the odds are not good enough, I'm going to lay off the race.
如果赔率不够好，我将取消比赛。
We watch the race on the TV monitors.
我们通过电视屏幕观看比赛。
Intrinsic Worth is wearing the number five and comes out of the gate poorly.
内在价值穿着五号球衣，但表现不佳。
The five broke bad.
五人坏了。
Right now he's running-- where is he running, fifth?
现在他正在跑——第五个他跑到哪里去？
He's out of the picture right now.
他现在已经不在画面中了。
I'm sure he's running last.
我确信他是最后一个跑的。
And then, to make a short story very short, in the final stretch number five comes in from 20 lengths back.
然后，为了让一个短篇故事变得非常短，在最后的一段中，第 5 个数字从 20 个长度开始。
Right now, it looks like-- Man 1 Look at this horse.
现在，它看起来像—— 男人 1 看看这匹马。
The horse is flying.
马在飞。
Here comes the five flying.
五飞来了。
If he broke bit, he's going to win the race.
如果他咬断了，他就会赢得比赛。
And then it's over.
然后就结束了。
Mike See?
迈克看到吗？
There it is.
就在那里。
The five, from 20 lengths back, won the race.
距离 20 米远的五人赢得了比赛。
Your horse?
你的马？
Mike The horse that I told you.
迈克 我告诉过你的那匹马。
He looked like much the best in the race, and he was much the best.
他看起来像是比赛中最好的，而且他确实是最好的。
He went off at five to two, which means you get $7 back for $2 bets.
他的赔率为 5 比 2，这意味着您下注 2 美元可获得 7 美元的回报。
Which for Mike was not even enough to place a bet.
对于迈克来说，这甚至不足以下注。
And this is why he and his system are taking a beating today.
这就是他和他的系统今天遭受打击的原因。
He picked the right horse.
他选对了马。
He was confident.
他很有信心。
But he didn't get long shot odds.
但他没有获得远投机会。
So he didn't put in a bet, and he didn't make any money.
所以他没有下注，也没有赚到钱。
These other guys in the same situation, they would have bet.
这些其他人在同样的情况下，他们会打赌。
They're like a group of scientists who all look at the same data and then all come to completely different conclusions, which when you think about it, is about as different from the way that regular scientists work as you can get.
他们就像一群科学家，他们都查看相同的数据，然后得出完全不同的结论，当你仔细想想，这与普通科学家的工作方式完全不同。
What I think's most interesting about horse racing is that it gives you a chance for analysis.
我认为赛马最有趣的是它给你一个分析的机会。
You're analyzing a group of horses, a group of trainers, a group of jockeys, the patterns that the horses have run, and you make a decision.
您正在分析一组马匹、一组驯马师、一组骑师、马匹的奔跑模式，然后做出决定。
And every 25 minutes, there's a new decision to be made.
每 25 分钟就会做出一个新的决定。
And if you're right, you can make money with it.
如果你是对的，你就可以用它赚钱。
Well, today on our program, people who are using the tools of analysis, the scientific reasoning of real science in settings where scientists don't really belong.
好吧，今天在我们的节目中，人们正在使用分析工具，在科学家不真正属于的环境中进行真正科学的科学推理。
It's fake science.
这是伪科学。
We all do it every day in all sorts of situations.
我们每天都会在各种情况下这样做。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Our program today in four acts, "Spook Science," "Government Science," "Beauty Science," and last, but not least, "Radio Science." Four acts of people tossing around questionable data, making logical jumps that they really should think twice about, in short, acting like you and me.
我们今天的节目分为四幕：“幽灵科学”、“政府科学”、“美容科学”，以及最后但并非最不重要的“无线电科学”。人们乱扔有问题的数据、做出逻辑跳跃的四种行为，他们真的应该三思而后行，简而言之，就像你和我一样。
And if you've got any question at all about the truth of that last statement, well, stay tuned.
如果您对最后一句话的真实性有任何疑问，请继续关注。
Act One, Spook Science.
第一幕，惊吓科学。
Jake Warga heard of a group in Seattle that is trying to use whatever scientific methods it can find to hunt for ghosts.
杰克·瓦尔加 (Jake Warga) 听说西雅图有一个组织正在尝试使用一切可以找到的科学方法来寻找鬼魂。
He tells this story.
他讲述了这个故事。
I've been invited to spend the night in a cabin deep in the woods, no electricity, no phones, with a group of ghost hunters.
我被邀请和一群幽灵猎人一起在树林深处的一间小屋里过夜，那里没有电，没有电话。
They've been asked there by the owner who thinks it's haunted.
店主认为这里闹鬼，所以询问了他们。
There's three buildings, three or four buildings, on this campsite.
这个露营地有三栋楼，三四栋楼。
The resident has experienced some things, and she sent me some pictures.
这位居民经历了一些事情，她给我发了一些照片。
There's a cemetery near the residence.
住所附近有一个墓地。
Patricia Woolard is Vice President of AGHOST, which stands for Amateur Ghost Hunters of Seattle-Tacoma.
帕特里夏·伍拉德 (Patricia Woolard) 是 AGHOST 的副总裁，该组织是西雅图-塔科马业余幽灵猎人协会的缩写。
Ross is the president.
罗斯是总统。
Ross and I are the only two people that really know the history of this place.
罗斯和我是唯一真正了解这个地方历史的两个人。
And one of the cabins at one time housed a body for several months, someone who died, that was not able to be buried because she died in the winter.
其中一间小屋曾一度存放一具尸体几个月，她死了，但无法埋葬，因为她死在冬天。
The location is an old mining camp going way back to the early 1900s.
该地点是一个古老的采矿营地，其历史可以追溯到 1900 年代初期。
At one point, it was a Bible camp during the summer.
有一次，这是夏季的圣经营。
And there were rumors of child abuse.
还有虐待儿童的传闻。
And in the early '30s, a woman died of TB, but the ground was too hard to break for a grave.
三十年代初期，一名妇女死于结核病，但地面太硬，无法开凿坟墓。
They decided to wait until first thaw.
他们决定等到第一次解冻。
So they put the body in a small cabin on the property.
于是他们把尸体安置在庄园的一间小木屋里。
They had her children take shifts and stay vigil by the body just in case she came back.
他们让她的孩子们轮班，守在尸体旁边，以防她回来。
They did this for over a month until the ground thawed and, I guess, it became clear she wasn't coming back.
他们这样做了一个多月，直到地面解冻，我想，很明显她不会回来了。
I've got them all labeled from EVP.
我已经把它们全部贴上了 EVP 的标签。
So I have all my tape recorders.
所以我有我所有的录音机。
I have about three or four tape recorders in there with extra tapes.
我那里有大约三到四台录音机，还有额外的磁带。
And then we have our meters case.
然后我们就有了仪表箱。
AGHOST's President, Ross Allison, is going over about seven silver cases he has loaded with electronic gear.
AGHOST 的总裁罗斯·艾利森 (Ross Allison) 正在检查大约七个装有电子设备的银箱。
Ghost hunters love gadgets.
幽灵猎人喜欢小玩意。
Luckily, Ross's day job is at a photo/electronics retailer.
幸运的是，罗斯的日常工作是在一家照片/电子产品零售商。
So you believe in ghosts?
那么你相信有鬼吗？
Ross Allison I would like to.
罗斯·艾利森 我愿意。
There's a part of me that, yes, I do believe in ghosts.
是的，我的一部分确实相信有鬼魂。
Inside of me, I really want to believe that there's something out there, that death is not the end.
在我内心深处，我真的很想相信外面有某种东西，死亡并不是终结。
Being in this field and wanting to be able to pursue it in the correct manner, you do have to be skeptical.
身处这个领域并希望能够以正确的方式追求它，你必须持怀疑态度。
We basically just go in, document everything that's happened, and state our case on the website, and let you decide for yourselves.
我们基本上只是进去，记录发生的一切，并在网站上陈述我们的情况，然后让您自己决定。
Well, could this place be haunted?
那么，这个地方会闹鬼吗？
This place is like a horror movie set of itself, complete with creaking doors and wind chimes.
这个地方就像一部恐怖电影，门和风铃吱吱作响。
And just like in the movies, it's starting to get dark.
就像电影里一样，天开始黑了。
All right, as everybody gets ready, make sure they have a flashlight on them.
好吧，当每个人都准备好时，请确保他们都带着手电筒。
Because again, there's not going to be any power.
因为同样，不会有任何力量。
So it would be interesting to find out if we get any EMF readings up here.
因此，了解我们是否在这里获得任何 EMF 读数将会很有趣。
Because I don't even get cell phone reception here.
因为我这里连手机信号都收不到。
EMF, by the way, stands for electromagnetic field.
顺便说一下，EMF 代表电磁场。
Spirits are apparently energy that can be detected with devices that measure electricity in the air.
精神显然是一种能量，可以通过测量空气中电力的设备来检测。
The EMF detectors they're using are sold as devices for telling where the wires in your walls are.
他们使用的电磁场探测器作为设备出售，用于识别墙壁上的电线位置。
But cameras are the most popular ghost hunting tool because they can capture orbs.
但相机是最受欢迎的幽灵狩猎工具，因为它们可以捕捉球体。
Orbs are the little circles of light that sometimes show up in photographs or videos.
球体是有时出现在照片或视频中的小光圈。
Most people think they're particles of dust or stray light hitting the lens.
大多数人认为它们是撞击镜头的灰尘颗粒或杂散光。
Ghost hunters believe they might be the energy of spirits.
幽灵猎人相信它们可能是灵魂的能量。
And most everyone is wearing a cassette recorder to record the voices of the dead.
大多数人都戴着录音机来记录死者的声音。
The theory is that deep in the background hiss of a recording hide unexplained voices.
该理论认为，在录音的背景嘶嘶声深处隐藏着无法解释的声音。
Basically, if I went out to a cemetery, started recording and asking questions out into the air that, upon playing back the tapes, really cranking up the silent spots, I should get responses.
基本上，如果我去墓地，开始录音并向空中提出问题，在播放磁带时，真正调高沉默点，我应该得到答复。
Let's see.
让我们来看看。
This one was when I got-- I was up by myself, and I asked out in the air, is anyone still here?
这是我一个人起来的时候，我对着空气问，还有人在这里吗？
And I get a response.
我得到了回应。
What are you doing here?
你在这里做什么？
Kendra OK, we are hooking up a mike.
Kendra 好的，我们正在连接麦克风。
I'm hooking up my microphone because I record everything that I say and do.
我正在连接麦克风，因为我会记录我所说和所做的一切。
Stephanie is our psychic, but not like you might think.
斯蒂芬妮是我们的通灵者，但并不像你想象的那样。
No crystal balls or late night TV commercials.
没有水晶球或深夜电视广告。
She's studying for her real estate license.
她正在学习房地产执照。
She's just a part of the group and sensing things is her role.
她只是团队的一员，感知事物是她的角色。
We don't tell her about the history of the site.
我们不会告诉她该网站的历史。
I do get the sense that somebody died on this property.
我确实感觉到有人死在这片土地上。
But I haven't determined if it's by their choice, or if it's natural or--
但我还不确定这是他们的选择，还是自然的，或者——
I'm waiting outside the small cabin, listening on a wireless mike I have on Stephanie.
我在小木屋外面等着，用我的无线麦克风收听斯蒂芬妮的声音。
I try not to pee myself because they're in the cabin that has the body.
我尽量不去小便，因为他们在有尸体的小屋里。
And we don't mean you-- Kendra This door won't stay open.
我们不是指你——肯德拉这扇门不会一直开着。
--any harm.
——任何伤害。
I am sensing a very foul odor in this area.
我感觉到这个区域有一种非常难闻的气味。
Very foul.
非常犯规。
Not now, but-- Stephanie No. Is there anyone here with us?
不是现在，但是—— 斯蒂芬妮 没有。有人和我们在一起吗？
Is there anything you'd like to say?
您有什么想说的吗？
But I still get that really foul odor in here.
但我还是能闻到这里那股难闻的气味。
OK, I'm ready.
好的，我准备好了。
They leave the cabin and start up a path into the woods.
他们离开小屋，踏上一条通往树林的小路。
Huge pine trees surround us.
巨大的松树包围着我们。
I want to stop here please.
我想在这里停下来。
You know what?
你知道吗？
I know this is really crazy.
我知道这真的很疯狂。
I totally got a vision of a body.
我完全看到了一个身体。
That never happens to me.
这种事从来没有发生在我身上。
Like an actual body.
就像真实的身体一样。
She describes what she sees.
她描述了她所看到的。
Short woman with curly hair in the style of the 1930s.
20 世纪 30 年代风格的卷发矮个子女人。
Later, going through old photos with the owner, Stephanie points to one photo.
后来，斯蒂芬妮与主人一起翻看旧照片，指着一张照片。
"Fern [?
“弗恩[?
Killins," ?] it reads.
基林斯，”？]上面写着。
That's her.
那就是她。
That's the woman.
就是那个女人。
It turns out that Fern is the woman who died of TB, whose body was left in that cabin for a month.
原来，弗恩就是那个死于结核病的女人，她的尸体被留在那个小屋里一个月了。
Stephanie is confused about why she saw the body until she discovers, just around a bank of trees, the cemetery where Fern is buried.
斯蒂芬妮很困惑为什么会看到尸体，直到她在树林周围发现了埋葬弗恩的墓地。
I'm hearing the voice of a little girl that continuously says something about playing.
我听到一个小女孩的声音不断地说着一些关于玩耍的事情。
Are you coming to play?
你来玩吗？
Or did you come to play?
还是你来玩的？
Who blocked the camera?
谁挡住了摄像头？
Ross Allison I did, sorry.
罗斯·艾利森 我做到了，抱歉。
I would like to ask who's in spirit to come forward please.
我想请问谁有精神请站出来。
And you need to know that you are very safe right now.
而且您需要知道您现在非常安全。
I got a reference to a guest house, an immediate guest house.
我得到了一个宾馆的参考，一个直接的宾馆。
I feel like we're not alone right now.
我觉得我们现在并不孤单。
Patricia's taking photos at the other end of the small cemetery.
帕特里夏正在小墓地的另一端拍照。
Well, you kind of get used to being in the dark.
好吧，你已经习惯了在黑暗中。
Out in the woods, you have to deal with animals and stuff like that too.
在树林里，你还必须与动物和类似的东西打交道。
I mean, I can handle a chipmunk.
我是说，我能对付一只花栗鼠。
But seeing a body?
但看到尸体？
I mean this is so Blair Witch.
我的意思是这就是女巫布莱尔。
We are tromping through the woods.
我们正在穿过树林。
I know it's like oop, uh oh, be careful.
我知道这就像哎哟，呃哦，小心点。
Oh, be careful.
哦，小心点。
Oh my God.
我的天啊。
You're going to kill yourself.
你会自杀的。
I'm not very graceful.
我不是很优雅。
Patricia Woolard It's all right.
帕特里夏·伍拉德 没关系。
My father dealt with dealing with MS, and it was a progressive illness that incapacitated him.
我父亲患有多发性硬化症，这种进行性疾病使他丧失了工作能力。
He died a year ago in May.
他一年前五月去世。
This is Patricia.
这是帕特里夏。
Patricia Woolard We'd talked a little bit about ghost hunting.
帕特里夏·伍拉德 我们讨论过一些关于捉鬼的事情。
He'd ask me questions.
他会问我问题。
He was very open to that.
他对此持非常开放的态度。
And my mom is too.
我妈妈也是。
But I asked him, if he had a chance to come back to please come back and let me know that he was OK.
但我问他，如果他有机会回来，请回来告诉我他没事。
And when he did pass away, I was there.
当他去世时，我也在场。
And being a part of this group, even in that short period of time, changed my perspective on death.
成为这个群体的一员，即使在很短的时间内，也改变了我对死亡的看法。
I used to think about death and be afraid.
我曾经想过死亡并且感到害怕。
I don't have that fear anymore.
我不再有那种恐惧了。
But he's been back since.
但从那以后他就回来了。
I was home, and I was up late.
我回到家，很晚才起床。
And I turned the light on, and it went off a few minutes afterwards.
我打开灯，几分钟后灯就灭了。
And I said, hi daddy.
我说，嗨，爸爸。
And it went right back on.
然后它又重新开始了。
I've been startled awake before.
我以前也被惊醒过。
But having a psychic sleeping on the sofa next to me in a haunted cabin bolt up at 3:00 AM crying, there's someone coming, well, that's just scary.
但在闹鬼的小屋里，睡在我旁边沙发上的灵媒在凌晨 3:00 突然哭了起来，有人过来了，嗯，这太可怕了。
People grab whatever gear they fell asleep with.
人们会拿起他们入睡时所用的任何装备。
Somehow, I remember to put on my headphones and start stabbing at buttons on my recorder.
不知何故，我记得戴上耳机并开始按下录音机上的按钮。
3:00 AM.
凌晨 3:00。
Stephanie You know what?
斯蒂芬妮 你知道吗？
Something just moved right there.
有什么东西就在那儿动了。
Outside?
外部？
Stephanie No, right here.
斯蒂芬妮 不，就在这里。
Right along this way right here.
就沿着这条路，就在这里。
Right where Kendra is, but through that door.
就在肯德拉所在的地方，但是穿过那扇门。
Not going that way, but going this way.
不是往那条路走，而是往这边走。
That was really weird.
这真的很奇怪。
We all shuffle around together in a tight bunch.
我们紧紧地挤在一起，拖着脚步走来走去。
She guides us to the kitchen.
她带我们去厨房。
OK, that was definitely something in the kitchen.
好吧，那肯定是厨房里的东西。
Definitely.
确实。
Does anyone have any recorders going?
有人有录音机吗？
You have one with you right now?
你现在有一个吗？
Oh, you're recording this?
哦，你在录制这个吗？
Oh god.
天啊。
Stephanie Over here, will you?
斯蒂芬妮 在这里，好吗？
Don't be afraid.
别害怕。
In their panic, no one had strapped on their tape recorder.
在惊慌失措中，没有人系上录音机。
They look at me and my big mike.
他们看着我和我的大麦克风。
I'm pushed into the dark kitchen.
我被推进黑暗的厨房。
They can see me and my trembling microphone in the night vision camera.
他们可以通过夜视摄像头看到我和我颤抖的麦克风。
But I can't see a thing.
但我什么也看不见。
Is there anyone here with us?
有人和我们一起吗？
We need confirmation please.
我们需要确认。
Would you tell us your name please?
请告诉我们您的名字好吗？
Can you give us a physical sign that you're here with us please?
您能给我们一个身体信号表明您和我们在一起吗？
I feel my left side lift, all the hairs standing up.
我感觉我的左侧抬起了，所有的汗毛都竖起来了。
Is this a seizure?
这是癫痫发作吗？
Wow, they say.
哇，他们说。
What?
什么？
I say.
我说。
There's an orb near your left side.
你的左侧附近有一个球体。
Point the microphone at the floor.
将麦克风指向地板。
A presence over there.
那边有一个存在。
I'm hoping that you'll get a female's voice when you replay that.
我希望你重播时能听到女性的声音。
You have to really listen.
你必须真正倾听。
But I'm hoping that you'll pick something up.
但我希望你能有所收获。
Because I sure felt it really strong right in there.
因为我确实感觉到那里的力量真的很强大。
We go into the main room.
我们走进主房间。
Stephanie points at the ceiling.
斯蒂芬妮指着天花板。
Upstairs, video cameras and a computer monitoring system are running.
楼上，摄像机和计算机监控系统正在运行。
Everyone is leaving, afraid, she says.
她说，每个人都害怕地离开。
I point my mike up to the ceiling.
我将麦克风指向天花板。
Everyone listens closely.
大家都仔细听着。
Then we hear it, a mouse.
然后我们听到了，一只老鼠。
I hit pause on my recorder.
我按下录音机的暂停键。
Kendra's walking towards the front door taking EMF readings.
肯德拉正走向前门，测量电磁场读数。
Then Stephanie, in a frightened and direct voice, tells her to, stop, someone's coming.
然后斯蒂芬妮用一种害怕而直接的声音告诉她，停下来，有人来了。
This is when the front door blows open.
就在这时，前门被吹开了。
I hit record.
我创下了记录。
Just relax.
放松点。
OK, I just got a big chill.
好吧，我只是感到一阵寒意。
Everybody just wait a minute.
大家稍等一下。
Please let me just gather myself.
请让我冷静一下。
I have a definite male presence right there.
我那里有明显的男性存在。
And I feel really afraid right now.
我现在真的很害怕。
Possible orb?
可能的宝珠？
Stephanie I have a really, really, really strong male presence here.
斯蒂芬妮，我这里有一个非常非常非常强烈的男性存在。
Gone.
走了。
Stephanie I don't want anybody to move.
斯蒂芬妮 我不想让任何人搬家。
Kendra, he just walked right by you.
肯德拉，他刚刚从你身边走过。
Just don't move.
只是别动。
Don't move.
别动。
Please don't move.
请不要动。
Stephanie, don't move.
斯蒂芬妮，别动。
He's still walking by us.
他仍然从我们身边走过。
Right here.
就在这里。
He seems like he's looking for something.
他似乎在寻找什么东西。
Just a minute please.
请稍等。
The whole house is unsettled with this presence.
整个房子都因为这个人的出现而感到不安。
I feel like the whole house is staying quiet for a reason.
我觉得整个房子都安静是有原因的。
Like nobody move, that's what I feel like.
就像没人动一样，这就是我的感觉。
And I totally feel like he's right here.
我完全感觉他就在这里。
Like right over in here.
就像就在这里。
He doesn't want to talk to me because I'm female or something.
他不想跟我说话，因为我是女性什么的。
I don't know.
我不知道。
He doesn't want to talk to me.
他不想和我说话。
By this point, Ross and I have told Stephanie about the history of the cabin.
至此，罗斯和我已经向斯蒂芬妮讲述了小屋的历史。
And she thinks, maybe this is the man who was here 70 years ago, the one who people think abused the children at Bible camp, a spirit stuck in a routine.
她想，也许这个人就是 70 年前在这里的那个人，人们认为那个人在圣经营里虐待了孩子们，一个被困在日常生活中的灵魂。
He's gone for sure.
他肯定已经走了。
Ghost Hunter 3 That's crazy.
《幽灵猎人3》太疯狂了。
Dang, that was harsh.
当当，这太严厉了。
That's terribly sad.
这真是太悲伤了。
He's not ready to deal with it.
他还没有准备好应对这件事。
He's just not ready to deal with it.
他只是还没准备好应对这件事。
In the diffused light of morning, all is well.
在清晨的晨光中，一切都很好。
I'm woken up to giggles.
我被咯咯的笑声吵醒了。
Stephanie is having a really fun time tapping on Steph's sleeping head.
斯蒂芬妮拍着斯蒂芬熟睡的头，玩得很开心。
That was so funny.
那太有趣了。
Steph Did you knock me on the head?
斯蒂芬 你敲我的头了吗？
We've been laughing at you.
我们一直在笑你。
Ghost Hunter 3 Because then you looked up and thought it was Ross.
《幽灵猎人 3》 因为那时你抬头一看，以为是罗斯。
Kendra, how'd you think it went last night?
肯德拉，你觉得昨晚怎么样？
Kind of odd to hear the noises that I heard.
听到我听到的声音有点奇怪。
But then again, it could have been my mind playing tricks on me too.
但话又说回来，这也可能是我的思想在欺骗我。
We all stumble upstairs to see what clues the ghosts left us.
我们都跌跌撞撞地上楼，看看鬼魂给我们留下了什么线索。
The scrabble pieces we lined up in the attic had not been moved.
我们在阁楼上排列的拼字游戏还没有被移动。
They've had luck in the past.
他们过去有过好运。
Once the pieces were moved to spell cat.
一旦棋子被移动到拼写猫。
The EMF detectors never went off.
EMF 探测器从未关闭过。
There were no unexplained voices on my tapes.
我的录音带上没有无法解释的声音。
The strangest thing to happen was that the video recorders and computerized motion and temperature detectors we had running in the empty attic shut off an hour into the two the batteries were supposed to last.
最奇怪的事情是，我们在空荡荡的阁楼上运行的录像机、计算机化运动和温度探测器在电池应该持续使用两个小时后就关闭了。
And I did see a lot of orbs on the video monitors, plus a couple in my photos.
我确实在视频监视器上看到了很多球体，在我的照片中还看到了一些球体。
I don't know.
我不知道。
But I mean the stuff on the video was pretty weird.
但我的意思是视频中的内容非常奇怪。
Haunted, I don't know.
闹鬼，我不知道。
What do you think?
你怎么认为？
It's really hard to say.
真的很难说。
Jake Warga What do you think that whole thing at 3:00 AM was when the door opened?
Jake Warga 您认为凌晨 3:00 门打开时发生的整个事情是什么？
It felt like the wind to me.
对我来说这就像风一样。
Ross Allison Yeah, I was going to say, it could have been the wind.
罗斯·艾利森 是的，我想说，可能是风。
But before it happened, again, we had a lot of things building up to that.
但在这一切发生之前，我们再次做了很多准备工作。
But not like, that's a ghost.
但不像，那是鬼。
Ross Allison No. Not enough for me to support that it was a ghost because we did have a lot of wind that night.
罗斯·艾利森 不。我还不足以支持那是鬼魂，因为那天晚上风确实很大。
And that door is really hard to latch.
而且那扇门确实很难锁上。
The week before this trip, my mom's best friend-- my Auntie Mame as I called her, she even called me Patrick-- died.
这次旅行的前一周，我妈妈最好的朋友——我叫她马梅阿姨，她甚至叫我帕特里克——去世了。
I was shocked, still am.
我很震惊，现在仍然如此。
This is the first time I lost someone close to me and wasn't unable to say a proper goodbye.
这是我第一次失去了亲近的人却无法好好地道别。
When each of my parents died, I was with them.
当我的父母去世时，我和他们在一起。
I want to believe in ghosts.
我愿意相信有鬼。
I want to say goodbye to my Auntie Mame.
我想和我的玛梅阿姨说再见。
And I want to believe that my parents and grandparents, who said they'd always be there for me, in fact, are.
我愿意相信我的父母和祖父母，他们说他们会永远在我身边，事实上，他们确实是这样。
I'm going to join Amateur Ghost Hunters of Seattle-Tacoma, pay my $30 and get my badge and T-shirt.
我将加入西雅图塔科马业余幽灵猎人队，支付 30 美元即可获得我的徽章和 T 恤。
So maybe someday, during some investigation with AGHOST, chasing around a haunted place, or after midnight in some cemetery, I'll see or hear something that will make me believe that there is life after death, that ghosts do exist.
所以也许有一天，在与 AGHOST 进行调查时，在闹鬼的地方追逐，或者午夜过后在某个墓地，我会看到或听到一些东西，让我相信死后还有生命，鬼魂确实存在。
We need to thank all spirit for allowing us to have the experience that we did last night.
我们需要感谢所有的灵魂让我们拥有昨晚的经历。
We want to make sure that you stay here.
我们希望确保您留在这里。
This is where you need to be right now.
这就是你现在需要去的地方。
We'll be back.
我们会回来的。
Jake Warga.
杰克·瓦尔加。
His story got some support from hearingvoices.com and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
他的故事得到了hearingvoices.com 和公共广播公司的一些支持。
[MUSIC - "FADED FROM THE WINTER" BY IRON & WINE]
[音乐 - IRON & WINE 的“FADED FROM THE WINTER”]
Act Two, Government Science.
第二幕，政府科学。
A couple months ago, the Union of Concerned Scientists issued a report condemning the Bush administration for what it called "distorting and censoring" scientific findings which contradict administration policies.
几个月前，忧思科学家联盟发表了一份报告，谴责布什政府所谓的“歪曲和审查”与政府政策相矛盾的科学发现。
One of the cases cited in the report involved something called the Advisory Committee on Childhood Lead Poisoning.
报告中引用的案例之一涉及儿童铅中毒咨询委员会。
This committee is one of about two dozen in the Centers for Disease Control.
该委员会是疾病控制中心大约二十个委员会之一。
Its mission is to advise the CDC how best to deal with the threat of childhood lead poisoning.
其使命是向疾病预防控制中心建议如何最好地应对儿童铅中毒的威胁。
The advisory committee has existed, in one form or another, for 30 years, starting in the '70s when the battle was to get the lead out of gasoline.
咨询委员会以这样或那样的形式存在了 30 年，从 70 年代开始，当时的争夺战是在汽油领域取得领先地位。
Alex Blumberg has been following the recent fights over who's going to serve in this committee.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格（Alex Blumberg）一直在关注最近关于谁将在该委员会任职的争论。
Each side in the fight thinks the other is practicing a kind of fake science.
战斗中的每一方都认为对方正在实践一种伪科学。
Here's Alex.
这是亚历克斯。
Dr. Bruce Lanphear is exactly the type of person you'd expect to find on something called an Advisory Committee for Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention.
布鲁斯·兰菲尔博士正是您所期望在儿童铅中毒预防咨询委员会中找到的那种人。
He's been the lead researcher on numerous studies investigating the effects of lead on children.
他是多项研究的首席研究员，调查铅对儿童的影响。
He's a scientific consultant to the National Center for Lead-Safe Housing.
他是国家铅安全住房中心的科学顾问。
And he's the author of a whole stack of scientific articles with titles like, "The effect of soil abatement on blood lead levels in children living near a former smelting and milling operation." So it's no surprise that the CDC got in touch with him.
他是一大堆科学文章的作者，这些文章的标题包括“土壤减少对居住在前冶炼和碾磨厂附近的儿童血铅水平的影响”。因此，疾病预防控制中心与他取得联系也就不足为奇了。
Sitting in my office in a research building, now about the three years ago, I received a call from a CDC official who asked whether I'd be willing to be nominated to be a member of the CDC Lead Advisory Committee.
大约三年前，我坐在一栋研究大楼的办公室里，接到疾控中心官员的电话，询问我是否愿意被提名为疾控中心首席咨询委员会的成员。
And my name along with, I think, three other people at that time was submitted to the Secretary of Health.
我的名字和当时其他三个人一起提交给了卫生部长。
Serving on a CDC scientific advisory committee is the elite, scientific version of serving on a task force at your local school board.
在 CDC 科学咨询委员会任职是在当地学校董事会特别工作组任职的精英、科学版本。
Committee members aren't paid a salary.
委员会成员没有薪水。
They keep their old jobs.
他们保留原来的工作。
They're just private citizens who meet a couple of times a year and offer their expertise and energy to help solve problems.
他们只是普通公民，每年会面几次，提供专业知识和精力来帮助解决问题。
They have no regulatory authority.
他们没有监管机构。
They don't even set policy.
他们甚至不制定政策。
But because they are some of the leading experts in the field, their recommendations carry weight.
但由于他们是该领域的一些领先专家，因此他们的建议很有分量。
The CDC told Dr. Lanphear that he should expect to begin work on the committee in a couple months, after the largely pro forma approval of his nomination was complete.
疾病预防控制中心告诉兰菲尔博士，在他的提名基本上获得形式批准后，他应该会在几个月内开始在该委员会工作。
But this was an election year.
但这是选举年。
The Bush administration took power.
布什政府上台。
And it took roughly a year and a half after he was first contacted for Dr. Lanphear to get another call from a CDC official.
第一次联系兰菲尔博士大约一年半后，他又接到疾控中心官员的电话。
Saying that he was a bit concerned that the representatives of the lead industry had put forward their own nominations and argued against the three people who had been nominated by the CDC officials.
表示他有点担心铅行业的代表提出了自己的提名，并与疾控中心官员提名的三人发生争执。
About a month later, the appointment was denied for me and, again, my two colleagues who had expertise in lead poisoning prevention.
大约一个月后，我和我的两位在铅中毒预防方面拥有专业知识的同事的预约再次被拒绝。
And the nominees who had been put forward by the lead industry were approved in place.
铅行业提出的提名人选已获批准到位。
There was some nonsense that I was somehow a Republican or something.
有一些胡言乱语说我是共和党人之类的。
That's craziness.
这太疯狂了。
And as a matter of fact, I voted for Bill Clinton.
事实上，我投票给了比尔·克林顿。
Dr. William Banner is the man who was appointed to the committee instead of Dr. Lanphear.
威廉·班纳 (William Banner) 博士取代兰菲尔 (Lanphear) 博士被任命为委员会成员。
And if you've ever wondered about that scientist industry trots out to say, all this research is wrong, smoking doesn't cause cancer, the climate is not changing, and lead paint isn't dangerous for kids, here he is.
如果你曾经想知道科学家行业宣称所有这些研究都是错误的，吸烟不会导致癌症，气候没有变化，含铅油漆对孩子没有危险，他就在这里。
A liberal pediatrician in Oklahoma.
俄克拉荷马州的自由派儿科医生。
Dr. Banner runs a children's hospital and is the medical director for the Oklahoma Poison Control Center.
班纳博士经营一家儿童医院，也是俄克拉荷马州毒物控制中心的医疗主任。
He doesn't want to loosen the current CDC recommendations about how much lead in kids' blood is safe.
他不想放松目前疾病预防控制中心关于儿童血液中铅含量安全的建议。
From my hour-long conversation with him, he seems to care deeply about the welfare of children in this state.
从我与他长达一个小时的谈话来看，他似乎非常关心这个州儿童的福利。
He's an ardent supporter of Head Start.
他是 Head Start 的热心支持者。
And he told me that the greatest threat to children that he saw was a recent change in the welfare law which kicks families off of government assistance.
他告诉我，他看到的对儿童的最大威胁是最近福利法的变化，该变化使家庭无法获得政府援助。
But he has also, on many occasions, been an expert witness for the lead industry, that is, companies like paint manufacturers who are being sued over the lead content in their products.
但他也在很多场合成为铅行业的专家证人，即像油漆制造商这样因产品中铅含量而被起诉的公司。
They hire him because he's willing to say on the witness stand that none of the studies connecting lead and children's cognitive development are conclusive.
他们雇用他是因为他愿意在证人席上说，没有一项将铅与儿童认知发展联系起来的研究是结论性的。
Who called you to be a member of this committee?
谁叫你成为这个委员会的成员？
Well, I don't remember who it was.
嗯，我不记得是谁了。
It was somebody that is involved in public relations, I think, for probably one of the national lead-- probably somebody from one of the companies.
我认为，这个人可能是一位国家领导人，可能是其中一家公司的某个人，从事公共关系工作。
And I didn't hear anything more about.
我没有听到更多的消息。
And I forgot about it.
我忘了这件事。
And then, the first thing I knew was that I got a letter from Health and Human Services asking me if I wished to submit a nominating letter.
然后，我知道的第一件事是我收到了一封来自卫生与公众服务部的信，询问我是否愿意提交提名信。
Dr. Banner went to his boss, the director of the hospital where he works, said, hey, the government wants someone to nominate me for this committee.
班纳医生去找他的老板，他工作的医院的院长，说，嘿，政府希望有人提名我加入这个委员会。
And his boss said, sure, we'll send a letter.
他的老板说，当然，我们会寄一封信。
And so now, when you call the government, as I did, and ask about Bill Banner, he sounds great.
所以现在，当你像我一样打电话给政府并询问比尔·班纳的情况时，他听起来很棒。
Medical Director of the Children's Hospital at Saint Francis in Tulsa, the Oklahoma Poison Control Center Medical Director.
塔尔萨圣弗朗西斯儿童医院医疗主任、俄克拉荷马州中毒控制中心医疗主任。
And he was recommended to us by the head of the hospital.
他是医院院长推荐给我们的。
This is Bill Pierce, the media relations guy for Tommy Thompson, the man appointed by George Bush to run the Department of Health and Human Services, HHS, which runs the CDC.
这是比尔·皮尔斯 (Bill Pierce)，汤米·汤普森 (Tommy Thompson) 的媒体关系人员，汤米·汤普森 (Tommy Thompson) 被乔治·布什 (George Bush) 任命负责管理卫生与公众服务部 (HHS)，该部负责管理疾病预防控制中心 (CDC)。
Bill Pierce assured me that, contrary to what everybody I talked to told me, it was very common to overrule specific CDC nominations and appoint different people.
比尔·皮尔斯向我保证，与我交谈过的每个人告诉我的相反，否决特定的疾病预防控制中心提名并任命不同的人是很常见的。
Let me ask one other question about Dr. Banner.
让我再问一个关于班纳博士的问题。
He has testified several times on behalf of the lead industry.
他曾多次代表铅行业作证。
And at the time that he was appointed, you had Dr. Weitzman and Dr. Lanphear, both of whom have just pages and pages of publications to their name, dealing with the very issue of lead poisoning.
在他被任命时，有韦茨曼博士和兰菲尔博士，他们两人的出版物都只有一页又一页，专门讨论铅中毒问题。
And then you have a person put on the committee who hasn't really published anything about lead poisoning and whose name was given to HHS by representatives of the lead industry.
然后，委员会中的一个人并没有真正发表过任何有关铅中毒的文章，他的名字是由铅行业的代表向美国卫生和公众服务部透露的。
That's the claim made.
这就是所提出的主张。
That's not true.
那不是真的。
Again, he was recommended by Robert Scott, executive vice president of Saint Francis Hospital, the hospital that he works in.
他再次得到了他所在医院圣弗朗西斯医院执行副院长罗伯特·斯科特的推荐。
Again, this is stuff made up by people.
再说一遍，这是人们编造的东西。
But this is from when I talked to him.
但这是我和他谈话时的事。
He said that the people who first asked him if he wanted to be nominated were representatives of the lead industry.
他说，最先问他是否愿意被提名的人是铅行业的代表。
Hey, again, it's a free country.
嘿，再说一遍，这是一个自由的国家。
Anybody can talk to him and ask him whatever they want.
任何人都可以与他交谈并询问他任何问题。
I could ask you, for instance, all kinds of questions.
例如，我可以问你各种各样的问题。
Does it mean anything?
这有什么意义吗？
I guess-- Bill Pierce It truly doesn't mean anything.
我猜——比尔·皮尔斯 这确实没有任何意义。
We were not contacted by anybody in any industry regarding Dr. Banner.
任何行业的任何人都没有就班纳博士的问题联系我们。
So you're saying it's a coincidence that somebody called him up from the lead industry and said, we want to nominate you for this, and then he got nominated?
所以你是说有人从领先行业给他打电话说，我们想提名你来做这件事，然后他就被提名了，这是巧合吗？
I have no idea.
我不知道。
I don't know anything about that.
我对此一无所知。
We don't know anything about that conversation.
我们对那次谈话一无所知。
Alex, again, I just-- you and I could probably talk and find out six connections we have.
亚历克斯，再说一遍，我只是——你和我可以谈谈并找出我们之间的六个联系。
Doesn't mean anything.
没有任何意义。
We've never talked except for this week.
除了这周我们从来没有说过话。
Doesn't mean anything.
没有任何意义。
Right.
正确的。
I guess it just seems-- can you understand, though, how that might seem suspicious?
我想这似乎——不过，你能理解吗，这看起来很可疑吗？
No. Again, I deal in facts.
不，我再说一遍，我所处理的是事实。
I deal in reality.
我处理的是现实。
I don't deal in conspiracy theories.
我不涉及阴谋论。
So it doesn't matter what anybody else said to Dr. Banner on their own.
因此，其他人对班纳博士说了什么并不重要。
He is well qualified to serve on this committee.
他完全有资格在该委员会任职。
The question of whether Dr. Banner is qualified to serve on this committee is an interesting one.
班纳博士是否有资格担任该委员会的问题是一个有趣的问题。
On the one hand, he has some very sensible opinions about government policies on lead.
一方面，他对政府的铅政策有一些非常明智的看法。
For instance, he didn't agree with the federal recommendations in the early '90s that said every child in the country should be tested for lead.
例如，他不同意 20 世纪 90 年代初提出的联邦建议，即该国的每个儿童都应该接受铅检测。
In his rural state of Oklahoma, far away from old, deteriorating housing stock and big industrial smelters, lead wasn't the problem for children, he thought.
他认为，在俄克拉荷马州的农村地区，远离破旧、恶化的住房和大型工业冶炼厂，铅对儿童来说不是问题。
Poor nutrition and a low immunization rate were.
营养不良，免疫率低。
He didn't like having to spend what little money he had on a problem that, in his view, didn't exist.
他不喜欢把自己仅有的一点钱花在一个在他看来根本不存在的问题上。
On the other hand, he hasn't done any research on the effects of lead exposure on children.
另一方面，他还没有做过任何关于铅暴露对儿童影响的研究。
And his opinions of other people's research run counter to what pretty much every scientist in the field would say.
他对其他人研究的看法与该领域几乎每个科学家的观点背道而驰。
Do I believe the studies, these epidemiological studies that have attempted to correlate IQ with the lead levels?
我相信那些试图将智商与铅水平联系起来的流行病学研究吗？
No.
不。
What he's talking about is this.
他说的就是这个。
Over the last 10 or 20 years, many researchers working in many different countries with many different populations, have done studies investigating the link between elevated amounts of lead in children's blood and loss of IQ.
在过去的 10 或 20 年里，许多不同国家、不同人群的许多研究人员进行了研究，调查儿童血液中铅含量升高与智商下降之间的联系。
They take a sample of children, measure their lead levels, give them an intelligence test, use a bunch of fancy statistical techniques to control for other factors, like parents' IQ.
他们对儿童进行抽样，测量他们的铅含量，对他们进行智力测试，使用一系列奇特的统计技术来控制其他因素，例如父母的智商。
And in every study, they show a link between higher blood lead levels and lower IQ.
在每项研究中，他们都显示了较高的血铅水平和较低的智商之间的联系。
But Dr. Banner says, they prove nothing.
但班纳博士说，他们没有证明什么。
They can't, he says, by their very nature.
他说，从本质上来说，他们不能。
They're statistical studies.
它们是统计研究。
Even when they show a correlation between lead and IQ loss, it could be coincidental.
即使他们显示铅和智商下降之间存在相关性，这也可能是巧合。
They tell us nothing about cells in the brain and what lead does to those cells.
它们没有告诉我们有关大脑细胞以及铅对这些细胞有何作用的信息。
I think they fall far short of science.
我认为他们离科学还很远。
And I take issue with the way they have done.
我对他们的做法提出异议。
And frankly, I think they have reached the conclusions that they wished to conclude and ignored the alternative hypotheses.
坦率地说，我认为他们已经得出了他们希望得出的结论，而忽略了其他假设。
And it has become very politicized.
它已经变得非常政治化。
Epidemiology itself is an infant as a science.
流行病学本身作为一门科学还处于婴儿期。
And I think the rules are ill-formed at this point.
我认为目前的规则是不完善的。
Dr. Banner presents a compelling portrait of himself, a maverick scientist with common sense bravely telling the emperor, in this case multiple regression analysis, that it has no clothes.
班纳博士为自己描绘了一幅引人注目的肖像，一位具有常识的特立独行的科学家，勇敢地告诉皇帝（在本例中是多元回归分析），它没有衣服。
But to most experts in public health, to deny this research is basically denying the mathematical basis of all modern epidemiology which studies the spread of disease by applying the same techniques in the blood lead studies to hundreds of other health areas.
但对于大多数公共卫生专家来说，否认这项研究基本上就是否认所有现代流行病学的数学基础，现代流行病学通过将血铅研究中的相同技术应用于数百个其他健康领域来研究疾病的传播。
Dr. Michael Weitzman has worked for 30 years doing field epidemiological research on children's health issues.
Michael Weitzman 博士从事儿童健康问题的现场流行病学研究已有 30 年。
For him, it's like denying that the earth is round.
对他来说，这就像否认地球是圆的一样。
Is it possible that there are limitations to epidemiology?
流行病学是否有可能存在局限性？
You bet.
你打赌。
It's very difficult to develop a causal argument when we show associations between things.
当我们展示事物之间的关联时，很难形成因果论证。
But when you have dozens, if not hundreds, of studies in different countries using different methods with different techniques showing the same thing, then how can you say that you question it?
但是，当你在不同国家进行的数十项甚至数百项研究使用不同的方法和不同的技术显示出相同的结果时，你怎么能说你质疑它呢？
Especially, he says, when epidemiology gets results.
他说，尤其是当流行病学得到结果时。
Using only mathematics, epidemiologists have eradicated a number of diseases without any understanding of the basic biology.
流行病学家仅利用数学就消灭了许多疾病，而无需了解基本生物学。
For instance, Reye's Syndrome, which killed a lot of school-aged children in the 1970s.
例如，雷耶氏综合症在 20 世纪 70 年代导致大量学龄儿童死亡。
And epidemiologic approaches found that the thing that these kids had in common is that virtually all these kids either have had chicken pox or the flu at the same time that they had taken aspirin.
流行病学方法发现，这些孩子的共同点是，几乎所有这些孩子在服用阿司匹林的同时都患有水痘或流感。
And so that led to the federal government making all sorts of recommendations that children under the age of 12 not take aspirin.
因此，联邦政府提出了各种建议，要求 12 岁以下的儿童不要服用阿司匹林。
And you know what?
你知道吗？
The disease has gone away.
疾病已经消失了。
It's completely disappeared.
它完全消失了。
Bill Pierce, the spokesman for HHS, didn't want to talk to me about any of this initially.
美国卫生与公众服务部发言人比尔·皮尔斯一开始并不想与我谈论此事。
He was convinced that I, like every other reporter, had an agenda.
他确信我和其他记者一样，有自己的议程。
I'd been spun by the Union of Concerned Scientists and by a webpage put up by Representative Henry Waxman, which attacks Bush administration policies regarding science.
我被忧思科学家联盟和众议员亨利·韦克斯曼创建的一个网页所欺骗，该网页攻击布什政府的科学政策。
He said that these things all made mountains out of molehills and ignored something much more fundamental.
他说这些都是小题大做，而忽略了更根本的东西。
All the claims made by the naysayers out there, the conspiratorial theorists-- if these people are appointed, somehow bad things are going to happen-- haven't come true.
那些反对者、阴谋论者提出的所有主张——如果这些人被任命，不知何故就会发生不好的事情——都没有实现。
These committees are serving.
这些委员会正在服务。
These people are on these committees.
这些人是这些委员会的成员。
These committees are meeting.
这些委员会正在开会。
Advice is being provided.
正在提供建议。
So I ask them, where's the beef, as the old cliche is in the old commercial.
所以我问他们，牛肉在哪里，就像旧广告中的陈词滥调一样。
Where's the beef?
牛肉在哪儿？
There is no beef.
没有牛肉。
I ask and challenge the media.
我向媒体询问并挑战。
I ask and challenge all of you.
我请求并挑战你们所有人。
Do that.
这样做。
Take a look.
看看吧。
What's the point here?
这有什么意义呢？
What is the point of these arguments that are being made?
这些论点的意义何在？
He's right.
他是对的。
Even experts who got rejected from the committee agree that they probably wouldn't have done much different from the current committee members.
即使是被委员会拒绝的专家也同意，他们的做法可能与现任委员会成员没有太大不同。
But there is something at stake.
但有一些事情处于危险之中。
And that is, how do we view science?
也就是说，我们如何看待科学？
Bill Pierce said to me, listen, there's Democratic scientific experts, and there's Republican scientific experts.
比尔·皮尔斯对我说，听着，有民主党科学专家，也有共和党科学专家。
Democrats appoint the Democratic experts.
民主党任命民主党专家。
And when Republicans come in, they appoint the Republican experts, Dr. Banner notwithstanding.
当共和党进来时，他们会任命共和党专家，尽管班纳博士是这样的。
But this is actually a fundamental shift.
但这实际上是一个根本性的转变。
Consider J.
考虑一下 J。
Routt Reigart, a professor of pediatrics in South Carolina.
鲁特·雷加特 (Routt Reigart)，南卡罗来纳州儿科教授。
He drafted the very first document the CDC ever issued about lead poisoning back in the 1970s.
早在 20 世纪 70 年代，他就起草了 CDC 发布的第一份有关铅中毒的文件。
He's been involved with the CDC on one committee or another ever since, from Nixon to Clinton.
从那时起，从尼克松到克林顿，他一直参与疾病预防控制中心的一个或另一个委员会。
And he says, in the past, appointments were not political.
他说，过去，任命不是政治性的。
That part was definitely a change in that nominations were going up from CDC and were being not only rejected by the secretary, but the secretary telling the center who should be on the committee, which was quite a different event than I was familiar with in the past.
这部分绝对是一个变化，因为疾病预防控制中心的提名正在上升，不仅被秘书拒绝，而且秘书告诉中心谁应该加入委员会，这与我过去熟悉的事件完全不同。
And this is going back-- J.
这要追溯到——J.
Routt Reigart Oh that's going back as far as I can remember.
鲁特·雷加特（Routt Reigart） 哦，据我所知，这已经是过去的事了。
That's back to the '70s?
回到了70年代？
J.
J。
Routt Reigart Yeah.
鲁特·雷加特 是的。
The Bush administration suggests that science is just like politics.
布什政府认为科学就像政治一样。
Dr. Banner has his opinion, Dr. Lanphear has his, and they're both valid.
班纳博士有他的观点，兰菲尔博士有他的观点，而且他们都是有效的。
But that's not actually how science works.
但科学实际上并不是这样运作的。
Science is based on the premise that there are not two equally valid points of view on all issues, that there's a verifiable truth to things.
科学的前提是，在所有问题上不存在两种同样有效的观点，事物存在可验证的真理。
That one side is right, and one side is wrong.
一方面是对的，另一方面是错的。
And science has a process in place to figure that out.
科学有一个流程可以解决这个问题。
And so, Dr. Reigart says, there is an objective difference between Dr. Banner and Dr. Lanphear.
因此，雷加特博士说，班纳博士和兰菲尔博士之间存在客观差异。
Dr. Lanphear, every time he submits a proposal, he has to justify everything he wants to do, why he wants to do, what his preliminary data is.
Lanphear博士，每次他提交提案时，他都必须证明他想做的一切是合理的，他为什么要做，他的初步数据是什么。
So he can't get the money unless he has a scientifically defensible point of view.
所以除非他有一个有科学依据的观点，否则他拿不到钱。
Whereas Dr. Banner's statements about lead poisoning-- if he has research that refutes those studies, then he should publish it.
而班纳博士关于铅中毒的声明——如果他的研究反驳了这些研究，那么他应该发表它。
And then we have something to talk about.
然后我们有话要谈。
In other words, Dr. Banner can raise his concerns about experimental methodology in courtrooms all over the country and to reporters on the radio and at public advisory meetings for the CDC.
换句话说，班纳博士可以在全国各地的法庭上、在广播中以及在疾病预防控制中心的公共咨询会议上向记者提出他对实验方法的担忧。
But science has already settled those questions long ago.
但科学早已解决了这些问题。
Of the 12 members in the current Lead Advisory Committee, only one could be considered a leading researcher on the effects of lead on children.
在现任首席咨询委员会的 12 名成员中，只有一位可以被视为铅对儿童影响的首席研究员。
And he's rotating off at the end of the month.
他将在月底轮换。
It'll be a science advisory committee without any scientific expertise.
这将是一个没有任何科学专业知识的科学咨询委员会。
In the case of lead, this might not be so dangerous.
对于铅来说，这可能不会那么危险。
The science concerning lead has been settled, more or less, for years.
关于铅的科学问题或多或少已经解决了很多年。
But on dozens of other committees appointed this way, committees which investigate global climate change, for example, or the effects of pesticides on human health, committees where the issues are much less clear, we need every expert we can find.
但在以这种方式任命的其他数十个委员会中，例如调查全球气候变化或农药对人类健康影响的委员会，以及问题不太明确的委员会，我们需要我们能找到的每一位专家。
Alex Blumberg is one of the producers of our show.
亚历克斯·布隆伯格是我们节目的制片人之一。
Coming up.
即将到来。
I hear dead people, part two, more real recordings.
我听到死人的声音，第二部分，更真实的录音。
And how to determine whether you, yes you, are objectively as beautiful as the stars.
以及如何确定你，是的，客观上是否像星星一样美丽。
Facts, details, analyses.
事实、细节、分析。
That is in a minute from Chicago Public Radio and Public Radio International when our program continues.
距离芝加哥公共广播电台和国际公共广播电台一分钟后，我们的节目仍在继续。
It's This American Life, I'm Ira Glass.
这就是美国生活，我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Each week on our program, of course, we choose some theme.
当然，每周我们的节目都会选择一些主题。
We bring you a variety of different kinds of stories on that theme.
我们为您带来有关该主题的各种不同类型的故事。
Today's program, Fake Science, stories of people employing scientific logic, scientific analyses wrongly.
今天的节目《假科学》，讲述了人们错误地运用科学逻辑、科学分析的故事。
We've arrived at Act Three of our show.
我们已经到了节目的第三幕了。
Act Three, Beauty Science.
第三幕，美容科学。
There's a whole-- I don't even know the word-- there's a whole tendency in certain people to try to apply objective standards, find objective standards, pseudo-scientific standards, to things that, frankly, are never going to be objective.
有一个整体——我什至不知道这个词——某些人有一种整体倾向，试图应用客观标准，寻找客观标准，伪科学标准，坦率地说，永远不会客观的事情。
You know what I'm talking about?
你知道我在说什么吗？
You've seen those scholars who write books explaining why comedy is funny.
你见过那些写书解释喜剧为何有趣的学者。
That's what I'm talking about.
这就是我要说的。
Some things are really better off left unexamined, far from the groping, sweating, parsing, greedy hands of fake scientists of all kinds.
有些事情最好不要经过检验，远离各种冒牌科学家的摸索、流汗、解析和贪婪之手。
And for an example of this, all you need to do is look at this article that's on the website Fametracker.com.
举个例子，您所需要做的就是查看 Fametracker.com 网站上的这篇文章。
It points out a recent attempt by a famous magazine, one that is on newsstands right now, to dive into this area.
它指出了一本著名杂志（现在就在报摊上）最近尝试进入这一领域。
Adam Sternbergh is the co-founder and co-editor of Fametracker, and he has the story here.
Adam Sternbergh 是 Fametracker 的联合创始人兼联合编辑，他在这里讲述了这个故事。
Yes.
是的。
It's that time of year.
每年的这个时候。
People magazine has once again graciously taken on the task of whittling down the hundreds of blindingly brilliant, gaspingly gorgeous, eye-searingly spectacular celebrities to a final, chart-topping 50.
《人物》杂志再次慷慨地承担起将数百名才华横溢、华丽华丽、令人目眩的名人进行筛选的任务，最终选出 50 名位居榜首的名人。
How do they do this?
他们是如何做到这一点的？
Can you imagine the arguments?
你能想象这些争论吗？
Benjamin Bratt.
本杰明·布拉特。
Rodrigo Santoro.
罗德里戈·桑托罗。
Benjamin Bratt.
本杰明·布拉特。
Rodrigo Santoro.
罗德里戈·桑托罗。
Benjamin Bratt.
本杰明·布拉特。
Rodrigo Santoro.
罗德里戈·桑托罗。
Then some poor, unfortunate associate editor gets a letter opener to the eye.
然后，某个可怜的、不幸的副主编收到了一封令人震惊的信。
And Rodrigo Santoro, the quote Brazilian actor and health-buff, gets page 142.
巴西演员兼健康爱好者罗德里戈·桑托罗 (Rodrigo Santoro) 的这句话出现在第 142 页。
This annual culling of the perfect may seem an arduous and arbitrary task.
每年一次的完美挑选似乎是一项艰巨且任意的任务。
This year, though, People's given us a peek into the process.
不过，今年《人物》杂志让我们一睹了这一过程。
These selections aren't just the ephemeral whims of overworked editors, their eyes blearied by beauty.
这些选择不仅仅是过度劳累的编辑们的突发奇想，他们的眼睛因美丽而变得模糊。
No, these selections are made based on the rigorous rules of science.
不，这些选择是根据严格的科学规则做出的。
Science, damn it, science.
科学，该死的，科学。
It's about 2/3 the width of his mouth and a perfect 1/3 of the length of his face, and his wide cheekbones and square jaw balance the width.
它大约是他嘴宽的2/3，完美的脸长的1/3，宽颧骨和方下巴平衡了宽度。
No, this isn't Keats writing another ode, this is Dr. Steven Pearlman, a Manhattan-based plastic surgeon quoted in People .
不，这不是济慈写的另一首颂歌，这是《人物》杂志引用的曼哈顿整形外科医生史蒂文·皮尔曼博士。
And he's lovingly describing Orlando Bloom's nose.
他还亲切地描述了奥兰多·布鲁姆的鼻子。
Oh yes, let us see that perfect 1/3 baby.
哦，是的，让我们看看那个完美的1/3宝宝。
Bloom's nose is featured in a section titled, "Most Wanted," which details the most wanted lips, eyes, nose, or cheekbones of the stars.
布鲁姆的鼻子出现在标题为“最受欢迎”的部分中，其中详细介绍了明星最想要的嘴唇、眼睛、鼻子或颧骨。
The possessor of each perfect feature is described with a snappy, verb-centric sentence.
每个完美特征的拥有者都用一个活泼的、以动词为中心的句子来描述。
For example, of Nicole Kidman's skin it says, "She glows." Of Johnny Depp's cheekbones, "He smolders." Of Bloom's coveted nose, "He commands." That's right.
例如，妮可·基德曼的皮肤上写着：“她容光焕发。”约翰尼·德普的颧骨，“他闷烧着。”布鲁姆令人垂涎的鼻子，“他发号施令。”这是正确的。
Orlando Bloom's nose commands.
奥兰多·布鲁姆的鼻子发号施令。
To do what?
做什么？
It's not entirely clear.
目前还不完全清楚。
It turns out, beauty is not, in fact, in the eye of the beholder, as some olden days person wanted us to believe, whoever that was.
事实证明，事实上，美丽并不像过去一些人希望我们相信的那样，无论是谁，都是情人眼里出西施。
Caesar or Jesus.
凯撒或耶稣。
Beauty can be reduced to a mathematical formula.
美可以简化为数学公式。
And it's fun to try at home.
在家尝试很有趣。
Let's turn to Dr. Francis Palmer, founder of the Beverly Hills International Center for Aesthetic Surgery and co-director of Facial Plastic Surgery at University of Southern California School of Medicine.
让我们来看看弗朗西斯·帕尔默博士，他是比佛利山庄国际美容外科中心的创始人、南加州大学医学院面部整形外科联合主任。
And with each paragraph-hogging list of professional credentials, you can picture that poor People fact-checker, phone stuck to her ear as the aesthetic surgery doctor in question reads his resume very slowly over the phone, as though speaking to someone who is developmentally delayed, "Beverly Hills Internat-- yes.
每一段都列出了专业资格的清单，你可以想象那个可怜的事实核查员，电话贴在她的耳边，而那位美容外科医生在电话里非常缓慢地阅读他的简历，就像在对一个发育迟缓的人说话一样，“比佛利山国际学院——是的。
Aesthetic.
审美。
OK.
好的。
A-E-S--"
A-E-S——”
Dr. Palmer has quote devised the following point system to determine true beauty.
帕尔默博士设计了以下积分系统来确定真正的美丽。
You get 75% of the points for your cheekbones, 10% for eyes and eyebrows, 7% for lips, and 2% each for jaw, chin, and neck, sleek nose, clear skin, and quote general harmony of features.
颧骨得分为 75%，眼睛和眉毛得分为 10%，嘴唇得分为 7%，下巴、下巴和颈部各得分 2%，鼻子光滑，皮肤干净，五官整体和谐。
So who scores the highest among, say, recent reality TV babes?
那么，在最近的电视真人秀美女中，谁得分最高呢？
Why, it's Survivor's newly minted millionaire, Amber Brkich, with 97%.
嗯，是《幸存者》中新晋百万富翁安布尔·布尔基奇 (Amber Brkich)，她的支持率为 97%。
But where do we, the regular folk, fit in?
但我们这些普通人又该如何融入呢？
It's easy to find out.
很容易找出来。
Here's the formula, as printed in People magazine.
这是《人物》杂志上刊登的公式。
To do a self-analysis, draw an imaginary line from the pupil of your eye down toward your jaw.
要进行自我分析，请从瞳孔向下画一条假想线到下巴。
Draw a second line from the nostrils across your cheeks.
从鼻孔到脸颊画第二条线。
The bottom of your cheek bone should fall at or below the intersection of these lines.
颧骨的底部应该落在这些线的交点处或下方。
If it is higher, your face may appear flat and masculine.
如果它较高，您的脸可能会显得平坦且男性化。
So she glows.
所以她容光焕发。
She sparkles.
她闪闪发光。
He smolders.
他闷烧着。
You suck.
你好烂。
Hey, that's not our opinion.
嘿，这不是我们的意见。
That's science talking.
这就是科学说话。
Adam Sternbergh.
亚当·斯滕伯格。
Read his analyses of both the famous and the very famous at Fametracker.com, where this story first appeared.
请访问 Fametracker.com（此故事首次出现）阅读他对名人和非常名人的分析。
[MUSIC - "I AM THE BODY BEAUTIFUL" BY SALT 'N PEPA]
[音乐 - SALT 'N PEPA 的“我是美丽的身体”]
Act Four, Radio Science.
第四幕，无线电科学。
Fake science can be fun, and it can bring people together.
假科学可以很有趣，它可以将人们聚集在一起。
Brent Runyon has heard it happen himself in the middle of the night.
布伦特·鲁尼恩 (Brent Runyon) 自己也曾在半夜听到过这样的事。
Most nights I have a hard time going to sleep.
大多数晚上我都很难入睡。
I worry a lot when I go to bed.
当我上床睡觉时我很担心。
I worry about money and if I should go and work at the movie theater again.
我担心钱，以及是否应该再次去电影院工作。
I worry that we're not going to be able to stay in this house.
我担心我们不能住在这所房子里。
And I worry that if we do move, everyone will be miserable.
我担心如果我们真的搬家，每个人都会很痛苦。
After that, I worry that the Red Sox will never win a World Series, and that Nomar's Achilles is going to require surgery, and that the Yankees will always win no matter what the Red Sox do.
在那之后，我担心红袜队永远不会赢得世界大赛，诺马尔的跟腱将需要手术，而无论红袜队做什么，洋基队总是会赢。
I know a lot of people who have trouble going to sleep.
我知道很多人都难以入睡。
Walker, who is 12, needs to have the dishwasher on to go to sleep and the dryer.
12 岁的沃克需要打开洗碗机才能睡觉，还需要打开烘干机。
Grandpa Jim used to count upwards through the prime numbers.
吉姆爷爷过去常常向上数素数。
I remember when I was a little kid, I used to lie in bed and listen to my parents talking through the wall.
记得小时候，我常常躺在床上，隔着墙听父母说话。
Their voices sounded muffled, and I couldn't make out the words.
他们的声音低沉，我听不清他们在说什么。
But I liked listening to the sounds.
但我喜欢听声音。
Now at night, I turn on the radio, so I can hear voices when I'm going to sleep.
现在晚上，我打开收音机，这样我睡觉时就能听到声音。
It's tuned to the same station the Red Sox games are on, an all-talk station.
它调到红袜队比赛的同一个电台，一个全谈话电台。
They have some local guys in the morning and Rush Limbaugh in the afternoon.
他们早上有一些当地人，下午有拉什·林堡（Rush Limbaugh）。
But at night, they have this program called Coast to Coast AM .
但在晚上，他们有一个名为 Coast to Coast AM 的节目。
I remember the first time I heard the show.
我还记得第一次听这个节目的情景。
It was 1:00 in the morning, and I couldn't sleep.
当时是凌晨1:00，我却无法入睡。
So I turned on the radio.
于是我打开了收音机。
And there were people talking about recordings from beyond the grave.
有人谈论来自坟墓之外的录音。
And then they played the recordings.
然后他们播放了录音。
And at first, there was just a lot of tape hiss and a kind of angry grumbling.
一开始，只有很多磁带的嘶嘶声和一种愤怒的抱怨声。
I was laughing at how silly it was.
我笑了，这真是太愚蠢了。
And then a voice seemed to say, I found the link.
然后一个声音似乎在说，我找到了链接。
Except that instead of saying it in a normal voice, the voice said it in a creepy, David Lynch, Twin Peaks , little man in the red room backward, kind of voice.
只是这个声音不是用正常的声音说的，而是用一种令人毛骨悚然的声音，大卫林奇，双峰，红房间里的小男人向后，那种声音。
I sat up in bed and turned the light on.
我从床上坐起来，打开了灯。
It freaked me out.
这把我吓坏了。
I was freaked out by some weird voice on a radio show in the middle of the night.
半夜的广播节目中，我被一些奇怪的声音吓坏了。
And still, I would rather listen to that than worry about money.
尽管如此，我还是宁愿听听这些，也不愿担心钱的问题。
So I turned the light out and closed my eyes and listened until I fell asleep.
于是我关掉灯，闭上眼睛，听着直到睡着。
Since then, I've barely missed a night.
从那以后，我几乎没有错过过一个晚上。
It's hard for me to fall asleep without it.
没有它我很难入睡。
I travel with an AM radio.
我旅行时会携带调幅收音机。
I wait to go to bed until 1:00 AM when the opening music kicks in.
我等到凌晨 1:00 开场音乐响起时才上床睡觉。
And when it does, I don't want to go to sleep anymore.
当它发生时，我不想再睡觉了。
From the High Desert and the great American Southwest, I bid you all good evening, good afternoon, good morning, whatever the case may be in whatever time zone you're in.
从高原沙漠和伟大的美国西南部，我向你们大家晚安、下午好、早上好，无论你们身处什么时区。
That's Art Bell, the weekend host of Coast to Coast .
那是 Art Bell，《Coast to Coast》的周末主持人。
He's a ham radio operator in his spare time.
他业余时间是一名业余无线电操作员。
He's got a bad back, and he does the show out of his house.
他的背部不好，所以他在家里表演。
The whole program runs like an amateur scientific society from the dawn of the Enlightenment.
整个计划就像启蒙运动初期的业余科学协会一样运作。
There's a sense that there's this stuff out there that's barely been studied, and we don't even have good procedures for studying it yet.
有一种感觉，有些东西几乎没有被研究过，我们甚至还没有好的研究程序。
But if we all sit down and reason together, we can probably make some sense out of it.
但如果我们大家坐下来一起思考，我们或许就能明白其中的道理。
Aliens, Mars, time travel.
外星人、火星、时间旅行。
Listeners call up to talk about shadow people and this ghoulish figure called the old hag who sits on their chest while they sleep.
听众打电话来谈论影子人，这个可怕的人物被称为老巫婆，在他们睡觉时坐在他们的胸前。
But there are ground rules.
但有一些基本规则。
Art lets the callers discuss whatever they want as long as they follow some system of logic and can back up their claims with a little evidence, with some kind of facts, or at the very least, a coherent story.
艺术可以让来电者讨论他们想要讨论的任何内容，只要他们遵循某种逻辑系统，并且能够用一点证据、某种事实或至少一个连贯的故事来支持他们的主张。
If not, well, there's going to be trouble.
如果没有的话，那就麻烦了。
I am the Antichrist.
我是敌基督者。
Art Bell Really?
艺术贝尔 真的吗？
How can you be sure, Carl?
你怎么能确定，卡尔？
I was born with six fingers on each hand.
我出生时每只手都有六个手指。
Well, that's still-- that doesn't nail it right there.
嗯，这仍然是——这并不能解决问题。
I mean, it is unusual, Carl.
我的意思是，这很不寻常，卡尔。
But that doesn't mean you're the Antichrist.
但这并不意味着你是敌基督者。
There's a lot--
有很多——
I understand that.
我明白这一点。
Art Bell OK, what else?
艺术贝尔 好吧，还有什么？
I sent-- Art Bell No, wait, wait, wait, Carl.
我发了——阿特·贝尔 不，等等，等等，卡尔。
What else?
还有什么？
So much more, Art.
还有更多，艺术。
Art Bell Well, fantastic claims require fantastic evidence.
阿特·贝尔 嗯，奇妙的主张需要奇妙的证据。
I understand that.
我明白这一点。
Let me make a statement to you and to the audience.
让我向您和观众发表声明。
What would that be?
那会是什么？
Carl I am going to save at least one third of the life on this planet.
卡尔 我将拯救这个星球上至少三分之一的生命。
That doesn't sound like an Antichristy sort of thing.
这听起来不像是反基督教之类的事情。
I understand that.
我明白这一点。
Art Bell You've got to understand that what you say is held somewhat suspect based on the fact that you've announced yourself as the Antichrist.
阿特·贝尔 你必须明白，基于你宣称自己是反基督者这一事实，你所说的话有些可疑。
I certainly do.
我当然知道。
Art Bell All right, thank you very much.
阿特·贝尔 好的，非常感谢。
And West of the Rockies, you are on the air.
落基山脉以西，您正在广播中。
Hello.
你好。
Hey, Art, how are you?
嘿，阿特，你好吗？
Brent Runyon In the Coast to Coast universe, nearly everyone shares some basic assumptions.
布伦特·鲁尼恩 (Brent Runyon) 在从东海岸到西海岸的宇宙中，几乎每个人都有一些共同的基本假设。
We know that aliens exist because so many people call up and talk about seeing them.
我们知道外星人的存在，因为有很多人打电话来谈论看到他们。
And if aliens exist, then there has to be a shadow government covering up the aliens.
如果外星人存在，那么就必须有一个影子政府来掩盖外星人。
And if the shadow government exists, who is controlling it?
如果影子政府存在，那么谁在控制它？
Well, that's what we're trying to find out.
嗯，这就是我们想要找出的答案。
Ghosts exist too.
鬼也是存在的。
Also, life after death and reincarnation and time travel and prophecy.
此外，还有死后的生命、轮回、时间旅行和预言。
One night, a truck driver called in and said he'd eaten at a '50s style truck stop in Ohio that was filled with pretty waitresses and good food.
一天晚上，一名卡车司机打电话来说，他在俄亥俄州一个 50 年代风格的卡车停靠站吃过饭，那里有漂亮的女服务员和美味的食物。
And then when he tried to go back a few weeks later, it was gone.
几周后，当他试图回去时，它却消失了。
Not torn down, it had never existed.
没有被拆除，它从未存在过。
Art sounded like he'd heard that one before.
Art 听起来就像他以前听过一样。
All he said was, phantom truck stop-- the way you'd say the Eiffel Tower, like we all know what that is-- and then went on to the next caller.
他只说了一句话，“幽灵卡车停靠站”——就像你所说的埃菲尔铁塔一样，就像我们都知道那是什么一样——然后就转向下一个来电者。
Much of the data presented on the show falls into the category of experiments that would be difficult for other scientists to reproduce.
节目中提供的大部分数据都属于其他科学家难以重现的实验类别。
For example, the recording of hell.
比如地狱的录音。
Someone sent Art this tape, which was supposedly recorded by scientists who were mining in Siberia.
有人给阿特寄了这盘磁带，据说是由在西伯利亚采矿的科学家录制的。
They drilled down nine miles until they smashed through into earth's hollow core.
他们向下钻了九英里，直到撞入地心。
They measured the temperature at 2,000 degrees.
他们测量的温度为 2,000 度。
And then they dropped down a super-sensitive microphone to listen to the tectonic movements.
然后他们放下一个超灵敏麦克风来监听构造运动。
But they accidentally recorded the moanings of souls in hell.
但他们却意外地记录下了地狱中灵魂的呻吟。
In case you've ever wondered what that sounds like, here it is.
如果您想知道这听起来像什么，那就在这里。
[SOUND OF MOANINGS] So Art plays this tape on the air, and people call in to discuss the breakthrough because there are questions of methodology to be discussed.
[呻吟声] 因此，阿特在广播中播放了这盘磁带，人们打电话来讨论这一突破，因为有方法论的问题需要讨论。
They're not saying, well, maybe hell doesn't exist, or even if hell exists, it's probably not in the center of the earth, or it would be easy for anyone to fake this.
他们并不是说，也许地狱不存在，或者即使地狱存在，它也可能不在地球中心，或者任何人都很容易伪造这一点。
They're discussing the logistics of drilling a nine-mile hole and then dangling a microphone into it.
他们正在讨论钻一个九英里长的洞，然后在里面悬挂一个麦克风的后勤工作。
The sound quality of this next clip isn't the greatest.
下一个剪辑的音质并不是最好的。
Now look, I'm not a geologist.
现在看，我不是地质学家。
But in my opinion, if you drilled nine miles down and you came to a pocket that was 2,000 degrees, you're talking about molten rock.
但在我看来，如果你向下钻了 9 英里，到达了 2,000 度的温度，那么你正在谈论的是熔岩。
Virtually.
几乎。
Male Caller And aren't you going to create a volcano?
男来电者：你不打算创造一座火山吗？
Now, what I'm thinking is--
现在，我的想法是——
But they didn't mention, in this story, pressure.
但他们在这个故事中没有提到压力。
They mentioned a horrid little being that came flying out.
他们提到有一个可怕的小生物飞了出来。
Then they mentioned the drill bit turning wildly, and they mentioned a high temperature.
然后他们提到了钻头疯狂转动，他们提到了高温。
But they also mentioned that they lowered a microphone into it.
但他们也提到他们将麦克风放入其中。
That's right.
这是正确的。
Male Caller OK, that's a pretty long extension cord.
男主叫好吧，那是一根相当长的延长线。
But anyhow--
但无论如何——
Not unreasonable.
并非没有道理。
It could be done.
这是可以做到的。
Who says they lowered the microphone to the final depth?
谁说他们将麦克风降低到了最终深度？
And so they may have lowered it just low enough to get the sounds.
因此他们可能将其降低到足以听到声音的程度。
I have an open mind.
我有一个开放的心态。
Brent Runyon When I think about it, one of the really surprising things about Coast to Coast is how little disagreement there is.
布伦特·鲁尼恩（Brent Runyon） 当我想到这一点时，《从东海岸到西海岸》真正令人惊讶的事情之一就是几乎没有分歧。
You turn on the radio any time of day, and people are arguing about politics or sports or whatever.
你一天中的任何时候打开收音机，人们都在争论政治或体育或其他什么问题。
When there are disagreements on Coast to Coast , they're about whether aliens are truly from another world or are simply human beings traveling through time to harvest our DNA.
当《从东海岸到西海岸》出现分歧时，争论的焦点是外星人是否真的来自另一个世界，或者只是穿越时空来收获我们 DNA 的人类。
Or whether the pyramids were built by people from other planets or if they were built by giants.
或者金字塔是由其他星球的人们建造的还是由巨人建造的。
I think, just from listening every night, the sheer volume of it, four hours of Coast to Coast whether I'm awake or asleep, I've totally stopped being skeptical about it.
我想，仅仅从每天晚上听它的巨大音量，无论我醒着还是睡着，从东海岸到西海岸的四个小时，我已经完全不再对此持怀疑态度了。
Now I just let the ideas wash over me like chemtrails.
现在我只是让这些想法像化学痕迹一样冲刷我。
You know when jets fly over and you can see the vapor trail, the misty exhaust line that goes away after a few minutes?
你知道当喷气式飞机飞过时，你可以看到蒸汽尾迹，几分钟后消失的雾状排气管吗？
Those are called contrails.
这些被称为凝结尾迹。
Well, chemtrails look the same, but they hang in the atmosphere for much longer.
好吧，化学尾迹看起来是一样的，但它们在大气中停留的时间要长得多。
According to a Canadian journalist, chemtrails are a government-sponsored climate modification experiment.
据加拿大记者报道，化学凝结尾是政府资助的一项气候改变实验。
Basically, military jets are spraying large amounts of microscopic particles into the atmosphere to counteract global warming.
基本上，军用喷气式飞机向大气中喷射大量微小颗粒，以抵消全球变暖。
When I first heard about chemtrails, I thought, quartz particles suspended in midair to reflect light and heal the ozone layer?
当我第一次听说化学尾迹时，我想，悬浮在半空中的石英颗粒可以反射光线并治愈臭氧层？
That sounds pretty far-fetched.
这听起来相当牵强。
But then guests and callers kept bringing it up, and I heard about it so much, it just became part of my normal life.
但后来客人和来电者不断提起这件事，我听了很多次，它就成了我正常生活的一部分。
Then NASA just released a study saying that contrails may be affecting climate change.
随后美国宇航局刚刚发布了一项研究称凝结尾迹可能正在影响气候变化。
And now, I can't look up into the blue sky without thinking about chemtrails.
现在，我无法抬头仰望蓝天，而不去想化学痕迹。
On Fridays, George Noory, the other host of Coast to Coast , does open lines.
每周五，《Coast to Coast》的另一位主持人乔治·诺里 (George Noory) 都会开放线路。
And sometimes he asks for stories from people around a particular theme.
有时他会询问人们围绕特定主题的故事。
Last week, the theme was "I was cursed," and he got calls from all over.
上周的主题是“我被诅咒了”，他接到了来自各地的电话。
One guy talked for a long time about these creatures that were following him.
一个人花了很长时间谈论这些跟随他的生物。
A woman called and said she'd been cursed for over 20 years by a former roommate, and that everything had gone terribly for her until she'd hired a good witch to remove the curse.
一位女士打电话说，她被前室友诅咒了 20 多年，一切都变得非常糟糕，直到她雇了一位好女巫来解除诅咒。
And then George got this call from Bob, east of the Rockies.
然后乔治接到了来自落基山脉以东的鲍勃的电话。
On any other radio show, Bob would just be another sad story about depression, and the toll it takes on you.
在任何其他广播节目中，鲍勃只是另一个关于抑郁症及其对你造成的损失的悲伤故事。
But on Coast to Coast , if you're depressed and have had a hard time, then you must have been cursed.
但在《Coast to Coast》中，如果你感到沮丧并且过得很艰难，那么你一定是被诅咒了。
I wasn't going to call in tonight, but after hearing some of the stories and-- I just started going, wow, a lot of that stuff has happened to me.
我今晚不打算打电话过来，但是在听了一些故事之后——我开始想，哇，很多这样的事情发生在我身上。
And I've got to tell you George, I credit you and your show for saving my life.
我必须告诉你乔治，我相信你和你的节目拯救了我的生命。
What happened?
发生了什么？
Bob Well, I'm just one of these people who has this dark cloud over him.
鲍勃：嗯，我只是那些笼罩着乌云的人之一。
And I almost decided that I was going to just do it all in.
我几乎决定要全力以赴。
No. Bob Because things just weren't making sense.
不，鲍勃，因为事情根本没有意义。
And I just couldn't seem to get a break anywhere.
我似乎无法在任何地方休息。
And I've listened to your show and listened to the people.
我听过你的节目并听过人们的声音。
And there was just such a connection there.
那里就有这样的联系。
At 1:00 in the morning, I understand what he means.
凌晨1:00，我明白了他的意思。
We're all up in the middle of the night, we can't sleep.
我们半夜都起来了，睡不着。
We're worried about things we can't really do anything about.
我们担心一些我们无能为力的事情。
It's all just so much easier to deal with if there's a reason.
如果有原因的话，一切都会变得容易得多。
We're cursed, or it's the shadow people, or demons, or chemtrails.
我们被诅咒了，或者是影子人，或者是恶魔，或者是化学痕迹。
If there's some bigger, powerful, controlling force, then everything makes sense.
如果有某种更大、更强大的控制力，那么一切就都有意义了。
It's easier to stop worrying.
更容易停止担忧。
It's easier to go to sleep.
更容易入睡。
Tell me about the cloud.
告诉我有关云的事情。
Is it still there?
还在吗？
The cloud?
云？
It seems to be dissipating a little bit because I'm beginning to understand about the world around me a lot more.
它似乎正在消散一点，因为我开始更多地了解周围的世界。
Good for you.
对你有好处。
Bob Because there was just so much I didn't understand.
鲍勃：因为有太多我不明白的事情。
But now I do because there's more to this world than we really can see with just our five senses.
但现在我这样做了，因为这个世界上的东西比我们仅用五种感官所能看到的要多。
Brent Runyon lives in Cape Cod and is the author of the memoir, The Burn Journals , which will come out this September.
布伦特·鲁尼恩 (Brent Runyon) 住在科德角，是回忆录《烧伤日记》的作者，该书将于今年九月出版。
Well, our program was produced today by Jane Feltes and myself with Alex Blumberg, Diane Cook, Wendy Dorr, Sarah Koenig, and Lisa Pollak.
嗯，我们今天的节目是由 Jane Feltes 和我本人以及 Alex Blumberg、Diane Cook、Wendy Dorr、Sarah Koenig 和 Lisa Pollak 制作的。
Our senior producer is Julie Snyder.
我们的高级制片人是朱莉·斯奈德。
Elizabeth Meister runs our website.
伊丽莎白·梅斯特 (Elizabeth Meister) 负责运营我们的网站。
Production help from Todd Bachmann and Will Reichel.
托德·巴赫曼 (Todd Bachmann) 和威尔·赖切尔 (Will Reichel) 为制作提供帮助。
[ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS] You know you can download audio of our program at audible.com/thisamericanlife, where they have Public Radio programs, best-selling books, even The New York Times all at audible.com.
[致谢] 您知道您可以在 audible.com/thisamericanlife 下载我们节目的音频，那里有公共广播节目、畅销书，甚至《纽约时报》都在 audible.com 上。
This American Life is distributed by Public Radio International.
《美国生活》由国际公共广播电台发行。
[FUNDING CREDITS] WBEZ management oversight by Mr. Torey Malatia.
[资金来源] WBEZ 管理由 Torey Malatia 先生监督。
Every time he wanders by my office or I pass him in the hall, I can hear him mumbling to himself.
每次他走过我的办公室或者我在大厅里经过他时，我都能听到他自言自语。
OK, I just got a big chill.
好吧，我只是感到一阵寒意。
I have a definite male presence right there.
我那里有明显的男性存在。
I don't want anybody to move.
我不想让任何人动。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Back next week with more stories of This American Life.
下周我们将带来更多《美国生活》的故事。
This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.
《This American Life》与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。