260: The Facts Don’t Matter - This American Life
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00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #260 | March 12, 2004 260: The Facts Don’t Matter Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.
00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 260 集 | 2004 年 3 月 12 日 260：事实并不重要 注：《美国生活》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。
If you are able, we strongly encourage you to listen to the audio, which includes emotion and emphasis that's not on the page.
如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。
Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.
文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。
Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.
请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。
Prologue Ira Glass From WBEZ Chicago, it's This American Life, distributed by Public Radio International.
序言 Ira Glass 来自 WBEZ 芝加哥，这就是美国生活，由国际公共广播电台发行。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
I give up.
我放弃。
I mean, I want to leave the radio.
我的意思是，我想离开电台。
The government is closing in on me.
政府正在逼近我。
They've already won.
他们已经赢了。
They've got these broadcasters in such a snit that they're hitting buttons on me.
他们让这些广播公司非常生气，以至于他们对我按下了按钮。
And I'm not--
而我不是——
--firing people.
——解雇人员。
Ira Glass Like a lot of you, I switch back and forth between Howard Stern and Morning Edition every morning.
艾拉·格拉斯（Ira Glass） 和你们很多人一样，我每天早上都会在《霍华德·斯特恩》和《早间版》之间来回切换。
The Howard Stern, NPR crossover audience exists everywhere.
霍华德·斯特恩 (Howard Stern) 与 NPR 跨界观众随处可见。
Here in Chicago, it's 10,000 people a day, an equal number of men and women, average age in their 40s, good incomes.
在芝加哥，每天有一万人，男女人数相等，平均年龄在 40 多岁，收入不错。
And in the last two weeks, as Congress has moved forward with bills raising FCC fines from tiny to a half million dollars each, Howard has been kicked off six stations owned by the conglomerate, Clear Channel.
过去两周，随着国会推进法案，将 FCC 的罚款从每份微薄的罚款提高到 50 万美元，霍华德已被清除频道集团旗下的 6 个电视台开除。
And Howard has told his audience that, because of the fines, he might be off the rest of his stations soon.
霍华德告诉他的观众，由于罚款，他可能很快就会离开其他电台。
And how you see all of this really depends on how you frame the issue.
你如何看待这一切实际上取决于你如何构建这个问题。
Howard Stern frames it as a simple, First Amendment issue.
霍华德·斯特恩将其视为一个简单的第一修正案问题。
He's not going too far, the government's going too far.
不是他走得太远，而是政府走得太远。
In the news media, this story has often been framed as, kind of, wacky news.
在新闻媒体中，这个故事经常被描述为有点古怪的新闻。
There goes that crazy Howard Stern, running his mouth again, getting in trouble.
那个疯狂的霍华德·斯特恩又开始胡言乱语，惹上麻烦了。
Maybe there's some theoretical First Amendment issue here, but this guy, in this guy's case, he definitely goes too far.
也许这里存在一些理论上的第一修正案问题，但是这个人，在这个人的情况下，他肯定走得太远了。
He's crazy.
他疯了。
I have to say, this seems like the least useful way to view this story.
我不得不说，这似乎是看待这个故事最无用的方式。
For one thing, it's just weirdly condescending.
一方面，这是一种奇怪的居高临下的感觉。
For some reason, lots of people get this strange condescending tone when they talk about Howard Stern.
出于某种原因，很多人在谈论霍华德·斯特恩时都会有这种奇怪的居高临下的语气。
And, most importantly, it sidesteps the bigger issue, which is that, for better or worse, what we're witnessing here is a real sea change in how government is regulating radio and television, making it much easier to revoke station's licenses for indecency, fining the actual people on the air up to a half million dollars.
而且，最重要的是，它回避了一个更大的问题，那就是，无论好坏，我们在这里看到的是政府监管广播和电视的方式发生了真正的巨大变化，使得吊销猥亵电视台的许可证变得更加容易，对实际广播人员处以高达 50 万美元的罚款。
You may like that.
你可能会喜欢这样。
You may not like that.
你可能不喜欢那样。
But let's acknowledge what it is and talk about it like adults.
但让我们承认它是什么，并像成年人一样谈论它。
It'll change the environment, even for what we do here on This American Life.
它将改变环境，甚至改变我们在《美国生活》中所做的事情。
One of our contributors, Sandra Tsing Loh-- maybe some of you have heard about this in the media already-- has already been fired from the public radio station that used to run her comments every week, under a so-called zero-tolerance policy.
我们的撰稿人之一 Sandra Tsing Loh（也许你们中的一些人已经在媒体上听说过这件事）已经被公共广播电台解雇，该广播电台过去每周都会根据所谓的零容忍政策发表她的评论。
This is a big change.
这是一个很大的变化。
Though, fascinatingly-- again, it all comes down to how you frame what the issue-- when I talked to the head of the congressional committee that's behind the fines-- this is Fred Upton of Michigan, a congressman-- he framed the whole thing much differently.
不过，令人着迷的是，这一切都取决于你如何描述这个问题，当我与负责罚款的国会委员会主席交谈时，他是密歇根州的国会议员弗雷德·厄普顿，他对整个问题的描述有很大不同。
He downplayed all of this.
他淡化了这一切。
He said it is much simpler.
他说这要简单得多。
It is much smaller and, at its heart, it's completely uncontroversial, the way that he frames it.
它要小得多，而且从本质上讲，他的框架方式是完全没有争议的。
This is actually one of the arguments that got the new fines approved by the House, overwhelmingly, 391 to 22.
这实际上是众议院以 391 比 22 的压倒性多数通过新罚款的论据之一。
That argument is, Congress isn't doing anything fancy or radical here, Congress is just bringing the FCC fines up-to-date with the times.
这个论点是，国会在这里并没有做任何花哨或激进的事情，国会只是让联邦通信委员会的罚款与时俱进。
That's it.
就是这样。
The fines were peanuts.
罚款是花生米。
And, in fact, at some of the hearings that we held, we learned that the Justice Department has actually balked at collecting the fines because it often costs more to them to saddle up their attorneys and to go file that claim in Federal Court than they're going to recoup in the payment of that fine.
事实上，在我们举行的一些听证会上，我们了解到司法部实际上在收取罚款方面犹豫不决，因为他们聘请律师并向联邦法院提出索赔的成本往往高于他们通过支付罚款来收回的成本。
The activist groups fighting for the fine say that what all this is about is kids, protecting kids.
争取罚款的活动团体表示，这一切都是为了孩子，保护孩子。
Brent Bozell heads the Parents Television Council, one of those groups.
布伦特·博泽尔 (Brent Bozell) 是家长电视委员会的负责人，也是这些团体之一。
A quick warning that, in this little snippet of tape, he and I discuss an adult sex act very, very briefly, so protect your kids.
快速警告一下，在这个小片段的磁带中，他和我非常非常简短地讨论了成人性行为，所以保护你的孩子。
Mr. Bozell and I don't need a half million dollar fine each.
博泽尔先生和我不需要每人罚款 50 万美元。
If there's one thing that is upsetting is the assault on the innocence of children.
如果有一件事令人不安的话，那就是对儿童纯真的攻击。
And what harm does it do?
它有什么危害？
For example, one of the fines that Howard Stern is facing from the FCC is for talking about or referring to anal sex on his show.
例如，霍华德·斯特恩因在节目中谈论或提及肛交而面临联邦通信委员会的罚款之一。
If a child were to hear him refer to that, what harm does that do, specifically?
如果一个孩子听到他提到这一点，具体会造成什么伤害？
How do you envision the harm of that?
您如何看待这样做的危害？
Well, first of all, there is right and there is wrong, two concepts that are utterly alien to Howard Stern.
嗯，首先，有对有错，这两个概念对霍华德·斯特恩来说是完全陌生的。
There is also the idea that a child, a young child, ought not to have messages of anal sex or any other kind of sex.
还有一种观点认为，儿童、年幼的儿童不应该接受肛交或任何其他类型的性行为的信息。
They can't comprehend these notions.
他们无法理解这些概念。
They can't understand these notions fully.
他们无法完全理解这些概念。
Right.
正确的。
But if they don't understand it, then how does it actually hurt them?
但如果他们不理解，那么这实际上对他们造成了怎样的伤害呢？
No, they don't understand it in its fullest.
不，他们并没有完全理解它。
It's a simple proposition, my friend.
这是一个简单的建议，我的朋友。
These are adult messages being addressed to children.
这些是成人向儿童传达的信息。
I think the people who disagree about all this are never going to see eye to eye.
我认为那些对这一切持不同意见的人永远不会意见一致。
I kept asking Brent Bozell to explain this part of the whole issue that I've never understood, which is, what was the big deal about Janet Jackson's breast?
我一直要求布伦特·博泽尔解释整个问题中我一直不明白的部分，即珍妮·杰克逊的胸部有什么大不了的？
What harm did it do to anybody, young or old, to see that for a moment?
看到这一幕对任何人，无论年轻还是年长，都会造成什么伤害？
He said that kids would imitate it in school.
他说孩子们会在学校模仿。
That was the harm.
这就是危害。
But, of course, if that were true, why haven't we seen a rash of playground shirt tear-off offenses?
但是，当然，如果这是真的，为什么我们没有看到操场上撕扯衬衫的行为呢？
You know?
你知道？
And, in a sense, it doesn't really do any good to talk about this stuff because you just go around, and around, and around.
而且，从某种意义上说，谈论这些东西并没有任何好处，因为你只是绕来绕去。
And, on this issue and on most issues, we're never going to have a meeting of the minds because we don't even agree what the issue is.
而且，在这个问题和大多数问题上，我们永远不会达成共识，因为我们甚至不同意问题是什么。
Is it First Amendment rights?
这是第一修正案的权利吗？
Or is it children's innocence?
还是孩子的天真？
Is gay marriage a question of the Bible or of equal rights under the Constitution?
同性婚姻是圣经问题还是宪法规定的平等权利问题？
Iraq, the deficit, in the end, because we don't agree on what the issue is, the facts don't matter.
伊拉克、赤字，归根结底，因为我们在问题是什么上意见不一，事实并不重要。
Well, today on our program, we have two stories about this, of people in a situation where the facts don't matter.
好吧，今天在我们的节目中，我们有两个关于此的故事，讲述的是人们处于事实并不重要的情况下。
Act One is about something that happened during World War II, where the government covered some things up and the facts only came out much later.
第一幕讲述的是二战期间发生的事情，政府掩盖了一些事情，事实直到很久以后才真相大白。
Act Two happens right now, during the presidential primaries.
第二幕现在发生在总统初选期间。
Stay with us.
留在我们身边。
Act One, Straight Eyes On The Quirin Guys.
第一幕，直视奎林兄弟。
Three weeks ago, in Washington, military officials announced that two men with ties to Al Qaeda, one suspected of smuggling weapons, the other of spreading propaganda, will be tried outside US Civil Court in military tribunals.
三周前，在华盛顿，军方官员宣布，两名与基地组织有联系的男子，其中一名涉嫌走私武器，另一名涉嫌传播宣传，将在美国民事法院外的军事法庭受审。
And, if you've been paying attention to the debate over these tribunals, you may have heard reference to a Supreme Court case, which the Administration uses as the legal precedent for their existence, it's called the Quirin case.
而且，如果您一直关注有关这些法庭的辩论，您可能听说过最高法院的一个案例，政府将其用作它们存在的法律先例，称为奎林案。
The original Quirin decision involved eight Nazi saboteurs who snuck ashore on Long Island, in Florida back in 1942.
奎林最初的决定涉及 1942 年潜入佛罗里达州长岛的 8 名纳粹破坏分子。
With Quirin, the Supreme Court changed what had been the law until that time.
通过奎林，最高法院改变了当时的法律。
The Supreme Court said that it was now OK to try enemies captured on US soil in military courts not civilian courts.
最高法院表示，现在可以在军事法庭而不是民事法庭审判在美国领土上捕获的敌人。
But a look back at the facts of the original case reveals a rather more complicated story, part spy thriller, part farce.
但回顾原案的事实，我们发现了一个相当复杂的故事，一半是间谍惊悚片，一半是闹剧。
When you look at the facts of the story, it's not only unclear whether they support the policies of our current administration, but whether they even supported the original decision.
当你看看这个故事的事实时，你不仅不清楚他们是否支持我们现任政府的政策，甚至还不清楚他们是否支持最初的决定。
Chris Neary reports.
克里斯·尼里报道。
What the Quirin decision has come to stand for and what actually happened in the case have grown so far apart it's probably best to start with the facts.
奎林案的判决所代表的意义和案件实际发生的情况已经相差甚远，最好从事实开始。
Here's what everyone agrees on.
这是每个人都同意的。
On June 13, 1942, on a beach in Amagansett, Long Island, four men dressed in Nazi uniforms rowed ashore with a huge cache of weapons.
1942 年 6 月 13 日，在长岛阿玛甘塞特的海滩上，四名身着纳粹制服的男子带着大量武器划上岸。
By sheer chance, they were stumbled upon by a 21-year-old Coast Guardsman named John Cullen.
纯属偶然，他们被一位名叫约翰·卡伦 (John Cullen) 的 21 岁海岸警卫队队员偶然发现。
Cullen, who's still alive and living in Virginia, declined to be interviewed on the radio, but he did talk with Michael Dobbs, a reporter for The Washington Post who's written a book about the case called, Saboteurs: The Nazi Raid on America.
卡伦仍然活着，住在弗吉尼亚州，他拒绝接受电台采访，但他确实与《华盛顿邮报》记者迈克尔·多布斯进行了交谈，他写了一本关于此案的书，名为《破坏者：纳粹对美国的袭击》。
Dobbs says Cullen remembers the night vividly.
多布斯说卡伦清楚地记得那个夜晚。
It was a very foggy night, the night of June 13, 1942.
1942 年 6 月 13 日的夜晚，一个大雾的夜晚。
He walked, I guess, about a half a mile along the beach when he saw two men pulling a little rubber dinghy in from the sea, which was very unusual because there was a blackout.
我猜，他沿着海滩走了大约半英里，这时他看到两个人从海上拉着一艘小橡皮艇，这很不寻常，因为当时停电了。
People shouldn't have been out that late at night.
人们不应该这么晚出去。
He went up to one of the men, asked him what he was doing.
他走到其中一名男子面前，问他在做什么。
The man said he was fishing.
那人说他正在钓鱼。
The man had a strong German accent, so Cullen immediately started getting suspicious.
这个男人有很重的德国口音，让卡伦立刻起了疑心。
The men were also drenched, so Cullen suggested they come back to the Coast Guard station with him.
这些人也被淋湿了，所以卡伦建议他们和他一起回到海岸警卫队站。
And the men refused, and that's when he really started getting suspicious of what was happening.
这些人拒绝了，从那时起他才真正开始怀疑正在发生的事情。
Cullen would have had to have been pretty suspicious to fully imagine the situation he found himself in.
卡伦必须非常怀疑才能充分想象自己所处的情况。
The men he found on the beach had come from a German U-boat still 200 yards offshore and stuck on a sand bar.
他在海滩上发现的人来自一艘距离海岸 200 码的德国潜艇，被困在沙洲上。
For the last two months, they'd been trained in the art of espionage at a secret camp disguised as a farm in the German countryside.
在过去的两个月里，他们在德国乡村一个伪装成农场的秘密营地里接受了间谍艺术的训练。
In their pockets were sea-soaked lists of key factories and bridges along the Eastern seaboard.
他们的口袋里装满了东海岸主要工厂和桥梁的被海水浸透的清单。
If they successfully completed their mission, the aluminum industry, relied on in making things like tanks and planes, would be crippled.
如果他们成功地完成了使命，依赖于制造坦克和飞机等产品的铝工业将陷入瘫痪。
There were eight men all together: four that night on Long Island, and four still on another U-boat preparing to land off the coast of Florida.
总共有八个人：那天晚上四人在长岛，四人还在另一艘准备在佛罗里达海岸登陆的潜艇上。
And though they were all foreign spies, they were all very familiar with the United States.
而且虽然都是外国间谍，但是对美国都非常熟悉。
Most of them had left Germany in the '20s, had come to America looking for jobs.
他们中的大多数人在二十世纪二十年代离开德国，来到美国寻找工作。
But when jobs dried up in the Depression, they'd returned to Germany, leaving behind wives, girlfriends, and family.
但当大萧条期间工作机会枯竭时，他们离开了妻子、女朋友和家人，回到了德国。
Many of them had personal problems that they wanted to resolve.
他们中的许多人都有想要解决的个人问题。
For example, the leader of the Florida group, Eddie Kerling, who was probably the most fanatic Nazi of all eight saboteurs, he had not only a wife in the United States, but he also had a mistress.
例如佛罗里达组织的头目埃迪·克林（Eddie Kerling），他可能是所有八个破坏分子中最狂热的纳粹分子，他在美国不仅有妻子，而且还有情妇。
So when he got back to New York, he quickly set up meetings with his mistress in Central Park.
因此，当他回到纽约后，他很快就在中央公园与情妇安排了会面。
And he was about to meet his wife the day he was arrested.
被捕那天，他正准备去见他的妻子。
So, even in his case, he had mixed motives for coming back.
因此，即使就他而言，他回来的动机也很复杂。
For any of them, was sabotage their first motivation when they came over?
对于他们中的任何一个人来说，破坏是他们来到这里的第一动机吗？
I think that many of them simply wanted to get back to America.
我认为他们中的许多人只是想回到美国。
We know this about how committed they were to their mission.
我们知道他们对自己的使命有多么忠诚。
That night, on the beach in 1942, though they were under orders to kill anyone they encountered, instead, George Dasch, the leader of the group, handed the young Coast Guardsman $300 and told him to get lost while the rest stood by and did nothing.
1942 年的那天晚上，在海滩上，尽管他们接到命令要杀死遇到的任何人，但该组织的领导者乔治·达什却递给了这位年轻的海岸警卫队 300 美元，并告诉他滚开，而其他人则袖手旁观，什么也不做。
Then, before authorities arrived, the Germans had time to dig a hole, hide their explosives, and walk to a commuter train station, where they hopped a train to New York, but not to commit sabotage.
然后，在当局到达之前，德国人有时间挖一个洞，隐藏炸药，然后步行到一个通勤火车站，在那里他们跳上火车前往纽约，但没有进行破坏。
They had spent the last few months, in some cases several years, in Nazi Germany where there was nothing to buy in the stores.
过去几个月，有时是几年，他们都是在纳粹德国度过的，商店里没有东西可买。
They had $100,000 in their pockets, which is the equivalent of over $1 million today.
他们的口袋里有 10 万美元，相当于今天的 100 万美元以上。
So, when they got back to the United States, the first thing that came to their minds was to go on a shopping spree.
所以，当他们回到美国后，第一个想到的就是去疯狂购物。
And the first thing they did was to head for Macy's.
他们做的第一件事就是前往梅西百货。
Also, Dasch loved a place called Horn & Hardart.
此外，达什还喜欢一个叫做 Horn & Hardart 的地方。
I guess Horn & Hardart was the McDonald's of the time.
我猜 Horn & Hardart 就是当时的麦当劳。
It was the largest fast food operation in the world at the time.
这是当时世界上最大的快餐店。
It was an Automat, so you put in your nickel and you got out a cup of coffee, or a piece of pie, or a sandwich from a bank of dispensers.
这是一个自动售货机，所以你投入五分钱，你就会从一排自动售货机中取出一杯咖啡、一块馅饼或一个三明治。
And he loved to go to that place.
他喜欢去那个地方。
They had many assignations at the Horn & Hardart.
他们在霍恩和哈达特有很多任务。
They also visited a lot of movie houses.
他们还参观了很多电影院。
And, in Dasch's case, he'd been a waiter.
就达什而言，他曾是一名服务员。
And he spent some time with his old waiter buddies at a waiter's club in New York.
他还和他的老伙计们在纽约的一家服务员俱乐部度过了一段时间。
Dasch spent two days and nights playing cards to calm his nerves while he hatched a plan.
达什花了两天两夜打牌来平复自己的紧张情绪，同时制定了一个计划。
He was deciding how to give himself up.
他正在决定如何自首。
During training sessions in Germany, he thought he might have detected that another man on the mission, Peter Burger, shared his feelings about defecting.
在德国的训练期间，他认为自己可能发现了另一名执行任务的人彼得·伯格也分享了他对叛逃的感受。
One night, while the two saboteurs were having dinner in a posh New York restaurant with the money they were supposed to be using for the mission, Dasch decided to risk revealing his intentions to Burger.
一天晚上，当两名破坏者带着他们本应用于执行任务的钱在纽约一家豪华餐厅吃晚饭时，达什决定冒险向伯格透露他的意图。
"There's something I need to tell you," Dasch said.
“有件事我需要告诉你，”达什说。
"I know what you're going to tell me," Burger answered.
“我知道你要告诉我什么，”伯格回答道。
"And I'm quite sure our intentions are very similar."
“而且我很确定我们的意图非常相似。”
In choosing eight spies for its first espionage team, Germany managed to select, not one, but two who wanted to defect.
德国在为其第一支间谍队伍挑选八名间谍时，成功地选择了两名想要叛逃的人，而不是一名。
They struck a deal.
他们达成了协议。
Burger would occupy the other men on the mission while Dasch figured out the best way to give them up.
伯格将占据执行任务的其他人，而达什则想出放弃他们的最佳方法。
And you might think Dasch had the easier of the two jobs, but he soon found out that, even when you're a spy trying to give yourself up, the FBI is not an accommodating organization.
你可能认为达什在这两项工作中比较容易，但他很快发现，即使你是一名试图自首的间谍，联邦调查局也不是一个乐于助人的组织。
On June 14th, just a day after landing, Dasch called the FBI office in New York saying he had statements of military and political importance to make.
6 月 14 日，即着陆后一天，达什致电纽约联邦调查局办公室，表示他有重要的军事和政治声明要发表。
Immediately, he was transferred to something called the "nutters" desk and forgotten.
立即，他被转移到一个叫做“疯子”的办公桌上并被遗忘。
Undeterred, Dasch got on a train and traveled to Washington, determined to turn himself in directly to FBI Chief, J.
达什没有被吓倒，他登上火车前往华盛顿，决定直接向联邦调查局局长 J.
Edgar Hoover.
埃德加·胡佛.
But, in Washington, this Nazi traitor, who really did have statements of military and political importance to make, was only slightly more successful.
但是，在华盛顿，这个确实有军事和政治重要性的声明要发表的纳粹叛徒，只是稍微成功了一点。
He first called the FBI headquarters and wanted to talk with Mr. Hoover.
他首先给联邦调查局总部打电话，想和胡佛先生谈谈。
Here's Duane Traynor, now a dapper 94-year-old living in a retirement home in Springfield, Illinois.
杜安·特雷纳 (Duane Traynor) 现年 94 岁，衣冠楚楚，住在伊利诺伊州斯普林菲尔德的一家养老院。
But, at the time, a 35-year-old special agent in FBI headquarters when Dasch tried to turn himself in.
但是，当时，当达什试图自首时，联邦调查局总部的一名 35 岁特工。
The [?
的[？
officiant ?] Secretary says, what do you want to talk about?
] 秘书说，你想谈什么？
It has something to do with sabotage.
跟破坏活动有关系。
Well, that's in Mr. Ladd's department.
嗯，那是拉德先生的部门。
The [?
这 [？
officiant ?] secretary then wanted to know what he wanted to talk about.
司仪？] 秘书接着想知道他想说什么。
It was sabotage.
这是破坏行为。
And the call was referred to Mr. Russell Kramer.
电话转给了 Russell Kramer 先生。
The same thing went on.
同样的事情还在继续。
What do you want to talk about?
你想谈什么？
Sabotage.
破坏。
They said, well, that's Mr. Traynor's section.
他们说，好吧，那是特雷纳先生的部分。
And they referred the telephone call to me.
他们把电话转给了我。
Dasch told Traynor everything, that the other sub had already landed in Florida, that the two teams were supposed to rendezvous in Chicago, and that they planned to target US aluminum factories.
达什告诉特雷纳一切，另一艘潜艇已经降落在佛罗里达州，两支队伍应该在芝加哥会合，他们计划瞄准美国铝工厂。
But Dasch didn't confine himself to just the mission.
但达什并不仅仅局限于任务。
He was a talker.
他是一个健谈的人。
A team of six secretaries took turns transcribing Dasch's rambling testimony.
由六名秘书组成的团队轮流抄写达什漫无目的的证词。
Traynor ended up staying with Dasch overnight in a hotel to get everything.
特雷纳最终和达什在一家酒店住了一夜，以得到一切。
He came away with 240 pages of information about, among other things, the state of Nazi Germany, Dasch's service in the US Army, and a laundry list of his remarkable personal ambitions.
他带走了 240 页的信息，其中包括纳粹德国的状况、达什在美国陆军的服役经历，以及他非凡的个人抱负的详细清单。
The only thing Dasch didn't claim expertise in, in fact, was the thing he'd been sent to do: spy.
事实上，达什唯一没有声称自己拥有专业知识的事情就是他被派去做的事情：间谍。
For example, he'd paid so little attention to his mission that he couldn't remember the name of one of the men he was supposed to be in charge of.
例如，他对自己的任务太不关心，以至于记不起他应该负责的人之一的名字。
Dasch had a little trouble with the name of one of the individuals.
达什对其中一个人的名字有点困惑。
He couldn't remember it at first, except it was to say, T- The- The-, something.
一开始他不记得了，只记得那句话是“T-The-The-”之类的话。
So I took out a Washington telephone book and started reading the names of all the people whose names started with T.
于是我拿出一本华盛顿电话簿，开始读所有名字以T开头的人的名字。
And I kept going down the list.
我继续沿着清单往下看。
Finally, I got to the name Thiel, and he said that's it, Werner Thiel.
最后，我想到了蒂尔这个名字，他说就是这样，沃纳·蒂尔。
And for a trained spy, well, he was no James Bond.
对于一名训练有素的间谍来说，他不是詹姆斯·邦德。
I said, is there any way you can get in touch with the leader of the other group?
我说你有什么办法可以联系到对方组长吗？
And he said, well, yes.
他说，嗯，是的。
I had him write the name of somebody on a handkerchief.
我让他在手帕上写下某人的名字。
And he picked the hankie out of his pocket.
他从口袋里掏出手帕。
And the name of this individual and his address is written in secret ink on this handkerchief.
这个人的名字和地址都用秘密墨水写在这块手帕上。
And I said to him, well, how do you develop it?
我对他说，那么，你如何发展它？
And he said, I can't remember.
他说，我不记得了。
He says, it was some smelly stuff.
他说，那是一些有臭味的东西。
Crack scientists back at the FBI lab determine what that mysterious smelly stuff was: household ammonia.
联邦调查局实验室的科学家们确定了这种神秘的臭东西是什么：家用氨。
George Dasch is one of the great enigmas of this story, not because he didn't talk about his reasons for doing things-- he did, a lot-- but because it's hard to believe him.
乔治·达什是这个故事中最大的谜团之一，不是因为他没有谈论他做事的原因——他说了很多——而是因为很难相信他。
He said that he hatched a plan to defect way back at the secret training camp in Germany.
他说，他早在德国的秘密训练营就制定了叛逃计划。
He said many times that, when Hitler declared war on America, I declared war on Hitler.
他多次说过，当希特勒向美国宣战时，我也向希特勒宣战。
But grandiose statements like that made people suspect less pure motives, especially for a man who had already betrayed one country.
但这样的宏大言论让人怀疑其动机不那么纯粹，尤其是对于一个已经背叛了国家的人来说。
At the trial, the government argued that Dasch didn't decide to defect until much later, and then only because he was scared.
在审判中，政府辩称达什直到很久以后才决定叛逃，只是因为他感到害怕。
Whatever the case, he clearly didn't consider himself a Nazi saboteur.
不管怎样，他显然不认为自己是纳粹破坏者。
Again, writer, Michael Dobbs.
再次是作家迈克尔·多布斯。
He thought that, if he went to the FBI, turned himself in, they would welcome him with open arms and allow him to launch a propaganda campaign by radio against Hitler.
他认为，如果他去联邦调查局自首，他们会张开双臂欢迎他，并允许他通过无线电发起反对希特勒的宣传活动。
So he imagined a starring role for himself.
所以他为自己设想了一个主角。
But J.
但是J.
Edgar Hoover had other ideas.
埃德加·胡佛有其他想法。
On June 27, 1942, The New York Times headline read: "FBI Seizes Eight Sabateurs Landed by U-Boats Here and in Florida to Blow Up War Plants." The article doesn't mention that the FBI was only able to crack the case because one of the saboteurs literally walked into their headquarters to confess.
1942 年 6 月 27 日，《纽约时报》的标题是：“联邦调查局抓获了 8 名 U 型潜艇登陆此处和佛罗里达州以炸毁战争工厂的破坏分子。”文章没有提到，联邦调查局之所以能破案，是因为其中一名破坏分子确实走进了他们的总部招供。
This is the first moment in this adventure where the official story diverges from the facts, and for decades the two don't find their way back to each other.
这是这次冒险中官方故事与事实相悖的第一个时刻，几十年来，两人都没有找到回到彼此的路。
The FBI decided the case would be conducted in secret before a military commission.
联邦调查局决定，此案将由军事委员会秘密审理。
Lloyd Cutler's been a White House Counsel for two presidents, helped ratify the SALT II Treaty, and negotiated with Iran during the hostage crisis.
劳埃德·卡特勒曾担任两任总统的白宫法律顾问，帮助批准了第二阶段限制性战略武器条约，并在人质危机期间与伊朗进行了谈判。
He's the kind of guy that, when reporters ask to talk with him, his secretaries ask, regarding which famous case?
他是这样一种人，当记者要求与他交谈时，他的秘书会问，关于哪个著名案件？
His first one came 60 years ago, when he was appointed to the legal team prosecuting the Nazi saboteurs.
他的第一次经历是在 60 年前，当时他被任命为起诉纳粹破坏分子的法律团队成员。
Of course, the decision to have a military commission was the President's decision under our Military Code of Justice.
当然，设立军事委员会的决定是总统根据我们的军事司法法典做出的决定。
And the reason it was all done in secret was because we had a dirty, little secret of our own.
这一切都是秘密进行的，因为我们有一个肮脏的小秘密。
And that was, although the FBI was trying to create the impression that it had itself penetrated the German saboteur school and the German army, and were waiting on the beaches to catch these fellows, the fact is that the FBI knew nothing about it at all.
也就是说，尽管联邦调查局试图给人留下这样的印象：它自己已经渗透到德国破坏分子学校和德国军队中，并在海滩上等待抓捕这些家伙，但事实是联邦调查局对此一无所知。
So the trial was held in secret more so that the FBI could create an image rather than for national security?
那么审判是秘密进行的，更多的是为了给FBI树立形象而不是为了国家安全？
Correct.
正确的。
And it was not just the FBI, it was President Roosevelt himself, because, remember, this was six months after Pearl Harbor.
不仅仅是联邦调查局，还有罗斯福总统本人，因为，请记住，这是珍珠港事件发生六个月后。
Half of our fleet had been destroyed.
我们一半的舰队已被摧毁。
General MacArthur was being isolated on Bataan in the Philippines.
麦克阿瑟将军正在菲律宾的巴丹半岛被隔离。
And the fact that these saboteurs fell into our laps was the first chance to show that the United States was doing something to defend itself.
这些破坏者落入我们的怀抱，这是表明美国正在采取行动保卫自己的第一个机会。
In fact, at one point, according to the attorney general's memoir-- his name was Francis Biddle-- President Roosevelt said to him, "Francis, you'd better not lose this case." It was clear from the beginning that President Roosevelt had every intention of trying and convicting these fellows before a military commission, and then executing as many of them as he could.
事实上，根据司法部长（他的名字是弗朗西斯·比德尔）的回忆录，罗斯福总统曾一度对他说：“弗朗西斯，你最好不要输掉这个案子。”从一开始就很明显，罗斯福总统有意在军事委员会面前审判这些人并定罪，然后尽可能多地处决他们。
Roosevelt decided at the outset that, as he put it, they were as guilty as can be.
罗斯福一开始就认为，正如他所说，他们是有罪的。
He wanted them to be executed.
他希望将他们处决。
The civilian court would not have returned death sentences against them, so he decided that the matter would have to be resolved by the military court.
民事法庭不会对他们判处死刑，因此他决定此事必须由军事法庭解决。
Writer, Michael dobbs.
作家迈克尔·多布斯。
Michael Dobbs So the question for Roosevelt was not whether or not they should be put to death, but how they should die.
迈克尔·多布斯 因此，罗斯福面临的问题不是他们是否应该被处死，而是他们应该如何死。
And he had discussions with his aides over whether they should be shot or whether they should be hung.
他与助手讨论了是否应该枪杀他们或是否应该绞死他们。
So there was a kind of a bloodthirsty side to FDR.
所以罗斯福有一种嗜血的一面。
In fact, when he first heard about the arrests of the saboteurs, he told Francis Biddle, the attorney general, that they should be taken around the country in cages and displayed like trophies.
事实上，当他第一次听说破坏分子被捕时，他告诉司法部长弗朗西斯·比德尔，他们应该被关在笼子里带到全国各地，并像战利品一样展示。
If anything, this wasn't quite harsh enough for the population at large.
如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这对于广大民众来说还不够严厉。
An article in Life magazine, entitled "The Eight Nazi Spies Should Die," shows a picture of militia men with rifles who had volunteered their services as a firing squad.
《生活》杂志上的一篇题为“八名纳粹间谍应该死”的文章展示了一张自愿担任行刑队的持步枪民兵的照片。
And it's at this moment of heightened national anxiety that the story of the saboteurs drifts still further away from the actual facts.
正是在这个全民焦虑加剧的时刻，破坏者的故事与事实更加背离。
Here's why.
原因如下。
People thought they were calling for the blood of Nazi spies but, at least in one case, what they were getting was the blood of a 22-year-old American citizen.
人们以为他们在呼唤纳粹间谍的鲜血，但至少在一个案例中，他们得到的是一名 22 岁美国公民的鲜血。
Hans Herbert Haupt, one of the eight saboteurs, had lived in the United States since he was a small boy and, more than anyone, seemed to stumble into this case through a series of unlucky accidents.
八名破坏分子之一的汉斯·赫伯特·豪普特（Hans Herbert Haupt）从小就生活在美国，似乎比任何人都更因一系列不幸的事故而陷入此案。
The misadventures that brought him there began less than a year before the trial, when he was busy chasing girls on the north side of Chicago in his brand-new Chevy, and was known as Herbie to his best friend, Wolfgang Wergin.
把他带到那里的不幸经历始于审判前不到一年，当时他正忙着开着他的全新雪佛兰在芝加哥北部追逐女孩，他最好的朋友沃尔夫冈·韦尔金（Wolfgang Wergin）称他为赫比（Herbie）。
Herbie and I worked together in a place called Simpson Optical.
赫比和我在一个叫辛普森光学的地方一起工作。
He was always ready to have fun, to dance, to spend money, especially spend money.
他总是准备好玩乐、跳舞、花钱，尤其是花钱。
He was just a great guy.
他只是一个很棒的人。
Wolfgang Wergin is 81 years old today, and lives in San Pedro, California.
Wolfgang Wergin 现年 81 岁，住在加利福尼亚州圣佩德罗。
And in a way, his life is a shadow life of what Haupt's might have been.
在某种程度上，他的生活是豪普特生活的影子。
Wergin was intimately involved in the story of how Herbie Haupt ended up on trial for sabotage.
韦金密切参与了赫比·豪普特如何因破坏行为而接受审判的故事。
And if not for what amounted to one bad job interview, he could have been there on trial with him.
如果不是因为一次糟糕的工作面试，他可能会和他一起受审。
It all started the summer of 1941, before Pearl Harbor, when America still hoped it might avoid a war.
这一切都始于 1941 年夏天，珍珠港事件发生之前，当时美国仍希望避免战争。
On a lark, the two friends took Wolf's 1934 Chevy and drove down to Mexico City.
两个朋友一时兴致勃勃，开着 Wolf 的 1934 款雪佛兰前往墨西哥城。
Wolf was 18.
沃尔夫18岁。
Herbie was 21.
赫比 21 岁。
They had $180 between the two of them, and they spent their time in Mexico blowing through it.
他们两人总共有 180 美元，他们在墨西哥度过了这段时间。
During one particularly expensive night of buying rounds for some dates, they ran out.
在一个特别昂贵的夜晚，为某些约会而购买的轮次，他们用完了。
They had to sell Wolf's car just to afford the trip back home.
他们不得不卖掉沃尔夫的汽车才能支付回家的旅费。
We had enough money to go back on the train.
我们有足够的钱坐火车回去。
But they wouldn't let us over the border because, in those days, you used to have to have a tourist card.
但他们不让我们越过边境，因为在那些日子里，你必须持有旅游卡。
And on the back of the tourist card, my tourist card, which I didn't notice that, but it had a little stamp: intro automobile.
在旅游卡的背面，我的旅游卡，我没有注意到，但它有一个小印章：汽车介绍。
In other words, that I had entered an automobile.
换句话说，我进入了一辆汽车。
And of course, they wanted to know where the car was.
当然，他们想知道汽车在哪里。
And we said, well, it broke down.
我们说，好吧，它崩溃了。
They said, well, you have to go back and bring it back or prove that you didn't sell it, because they wanted the tax money.
他们说，好吧，你必须回去把它带回来，或者证明你没有卖掉它，因为他们想要税钱。
So we just went back to Mexico and told that guy that we were living with, that rented us the room.
所以我们回到墨西哥并告诉那个和我们住在一起的人，他给我们租了房间。
And he says, oh, that's no problem.
他说，哦，那没问题。
He says, I have my friend who's the Chief of [UNINTELLIGIBLE], in Manzanillo, and he'll get you on a boat going to Los Angeles.
他说，我有我的朋友，他是曼萨尼约[难以辨认]的首领，他会送你上船去洛杉矶。
And then you can hitchhike from there.
然后你可以从那里搭便车。
And then we thought, oh, that was great.
然后我们想，哦，那太好了。
The two set off for the port city of Manzanillo, and two days later they went to sea aboard a freighter, Wergin says, they thought was bound for California.
韦金说，两人出发前往港口城市曼萨尼约，两天后，他们乘坐一艘货轮出海，他们以为是开往加利福尼亚州。
It was called the Genyo Maru, and it was supposed to go to from Manzanillo to Los Angeles, and from there to Seattle to pick up some more scrap metal.
它被称为 Genyo Maru，它应该从曼萨尼约开往洛杉矶，然后从那里开往西雅图，以收集更多的废金属。
But about three days later, we talked to the steward and he says, oh, we having trouble.
但大约三天后，我们与乘务员交谈，他说，哦，我们遇到了麻烦。
Anyway, we got no answer at all.
无论如何，我们根本没有得到任何答复。
And then, two weeks later, we were in Yokohama.
两周后，我们到达了横滨。
[LAUGHS] Chris Neary So there they were in Japan, four months before Pearl Harbor.
[笑]克里斯·尼尔里 所以他们在日本，珍珠港事件发生前四个月。
Later on, in trial transcripts, Herbie said he'd gotten on the freighter because he'd heard there was work in Japan, but when he and Wolf arrived they couldn't find any.
后来，在审判笔录中，赫比说他之所以登上货轮，是因为他听说日本有工作，但当他和沃尔夫到达时，他们找不到任何工作。
They went to the US Embassy, but found no help there either.
他们去了美国大使馆，但也没有找到任何帮助。
Broke and not sure where to turn, they finally got work on a German freighter they thought was headed for neutral Portugal.
他们破产了，不知道该去哪里，最后他们终于在一艘德国货轮上找到了工作，他们认为这艘货轮将驶往中立国葡萄牙。
Just a couple of days after arriving in Japan, they found themselves, once again, on the high seas.
抵达日本几天后，他们发现自己再次身处公海上。
What did you guys think of the United States at that time?
你们当时对美国有什么看法？
What were your feelings towards it?
你对此有何感受？
Oh, home.
哦，回家了。
Nothing but home.
除了家什么都没有。
My parents were there.
我的父母在那里。
I had a brand-new drum set that my dad bought for me.
我有一套全新的架子鼓，是我爸爸给我买的。
We had a little neighborhood band, you know.
你知道，我们有一个邻里小乐队。
We used to play for bar mitzvahs and things like that.
我们曾经为成人礼之类的事情演奏过。
It was our home.
那是我们的家。
And how did Herbie feel about it, about the US?
赫比对美国有何看法？
Oh, he was same thing.
哦，他也是同样的情况。
He was no Nazi.
他不是纳粹。
I mean, we had no more interest in politics than the man in the moon.
我的意思是，我们对政治的兴趣并不比月球上的人更感兴趣。
The boat sailed down the coast of Africa and around the Cape of Good Hope.
这艘船沿着非洲海岸航行，绕过好望角。
And while it did, the home they'd left behind slipped into war.
与此同时，他们留下的家园却陷入了战争。
During the time they were at sea, Prime Minister Tojo came to power, Pearl Harbor was bombed, and the US sent fleets into the Pacific.
在他们出海期间，东条首相上台，珍珠港被轰炸，美国派舰队进入太平洋。
On the day they hit dry land, more than three months after they'd first set sail, Germany formally declared war on the United States.
在他们登陆陆地的那天，即他们首次起航三个多月后，德国正式对美国宣战。
And unfortunately, they hadn't landed in neutral Portugal, but in the German-occupied French port of Bordeaux.
不幸的是，他们并没有登陆中立国葡萄牙，而是登陆了德国占领的法国波尔多港。
Not surprisingly, the two men were taken to be Americans and put in an internment camp.
毫不奇怪，这两个人被当作美国人并关进了拘留营。
After a couple of days, though, interpreters came around and discovered that both Wolf and Herbie had been born in Germany and left for America as little kids.
然而几天后，翻译发现沃尔夫和赫比都出生在德国，小时候就去了美国。
Herbie was sent to relatives in the German town of Stettin, Wolf to his grandparents in Konigsberg.
赫比被送到德国小镇斯泰丁的亲戚那里，沃尔夫则被送到柯尼斯堡的祖父母那里。
That was funny, too, because they couldn't speak English and I couldn't speak German.
这也很有趣，因为他们不会说英语，而我也不会说德语。
[LAUGHS] The only thing that my mother ever said to me or I ever said to her was nach de tur: close the door.
[笑]我母亲对我说过或我对她说过的唯一一句话就是nach de tur：关上门。
In Stettin, Herbie was contacted by a man named Walter Kappe.
在斯德丁，一位名叫沃尔特·卡佩（Walter Kappe）的男子联系了赫比。
Kappe was the head of the espionage program that recruited the saboteurs and sent them to the US.
卡佩是招募破坏分子并将他们送往美国的间谍计划的负责人。
A blustery man full of ideas, Kappe had also spent decades in America before the war and had come back when Hitler came to power.
卡佩是一个充满想法、脾气暴躁的人，他在战前也曾在美国呆过几十年，并在希特勒上台后回到美国。
In Herbie, he saw an affable young man, a perfect double agent.
在赫比身上，他看到了一个和蔼可亲的年轻人，一个完美的双重间谍。
In the eager Kappe, Herbie saw a ticket back home.
在急切的卡佩身上，赫比看到了一张回家的车票。
Herbie sent a letter to Wolf explaining it all and inviting him to Berlin to a meeting in Kappe's office.
赫比给沃尔夫写了一封信，解释了这一切，并邀请他到柏林参加卡佩办公室的会议。
And we sat down, and he give us this spiel, you know, we would be doing our thing for the Fatherland and that kind of stuff.
我们坐下来，他给了我们这样的演讲，你知道，我们会为祖国做我们的事情，诸如此类的事情。
But it seemed, to me, that he had a dislike for me right from the beginning, maybe because I didn't immediately take to his scheme here.
但在我看来，他似乎从一开始就不喜欢我，也许是因为我没有立即接受他在这里的计划。
And, for some reason, we just never even considered me being part of it, but Herbie was.
而且，出于某种原因，我们从来没有考虑过我是其中的一部分，但赫比是。
After the meeting, the two went back to Stettin to talk things over.
会面结束后，两人回到什切丁商谈事情。
The last time I saw Herbie was in Stettin.
我最后一次见到赫比是在斯德丁。
We were at his uncle's house, and we had a little bit of wine and things.
我们在他叔叔家，喝了一点酒什么的。
And what Herbie told me was that, when he found out that they were going to have this school and they were going to send the saboteurs back to the United States, he said, well, it's great.
赫比告诉我的是，当他发现他们将要拥有这所学校并且他们将把破坏者送回美国时，他说，这太棒了。
I can't wait to get back.
我等不及要回来了。
And I said to him, Herbie.
我对他说，赫比。
Now in those days-- we grew up in Chicago-- you've got to remember that the G-men, the FBI, were the big thing.
现在，在那些日子里——我们在芝加哥长大——你必须记住，G 人、联邦调查局 (FBI) 是一件大事。
There was Dillinger, they gunned down Dillinger.
迪林杰在那里，他们枪杀了迪林杰。
And I said Herbie, you're not going to make it.
我说赫比，你不会成功的。
You go back and the G-men is going to get you and put your ass in jail.
你回去吧，G 人会抓到你，把你关进监狱。
And he said, no, no, no. I'm going to go over there and I'm going to disappear.
他说，不，不，不。我要去那里然后消失。
Herbie thought he was putting one over on them.
赫比认为他正在给他们戴上一件。
And, for some reason, he was almost jovial.
而且，出于某种原因，他几乎是快乐的。
And then he just burst out crying.
然后他就放声大哭起来。
There was no words.
没有言语。
There was just sobs.
只有抽泣声。
And I don't know what made him start bawling like that.
我不知道是什么让他开始大哭起来。
That's the thing that bothers me today, is why would he, all of a sudden?
这就是今天让我烦恼的事情，他为什么会突然这么做？
Was it the fear of going into something that he had no intention of completing?
是因为害怕去做一些他无意完成的事情吗？
Or was it the fear that what I'd said was probably true, that he would be put in jail?
或者是担心我说的可能是真的，他会被关进监狱？
I don't know.
我不知道。
The only thing I can say is that I was embarrassed.
我唯一能说的就是我很尴尬。
That's all.
就这样。
Embarrassed?
尴尬的？
Wolfgang Wergin I was embarrassed for him.
沃尔夫冈·韦尔金（Wolfgang Wergin） 我为他感到尴尬。
Wolf went back to his grandmother's house, where within a week he was drafted into the German army and sent to the Russian front.
沃尔夫回到了他祖母的家，一周之内他就被征召入伍，并被派往俄罗斯前线。
He spent two years there in slimy foxholes, in some of the bloodiest battles of World War II.
他在泥泞的散兵坑里度过了两年，参加了第二次世界大战中一些最血腥的战斗。
Herbie got on the U-boat to America.
赫比登上了前往美国的潜艇。
There's still a question about how serious he and the other seven saboteurs were in their intention to commit sabotage.
他和其他七名破坏者的破坏意图到底有多严重仍然是一个问题。
And people who've studied the case say that one of them was an ideologically committed Nazi.
研究过此案的人表示，其中一人是一名意识形态上坚定的纳粹分子。
Three of the men, Herbie, Dasch, and Burger, seemed to have had no interest in the mission, and the rest are anyone's guess.
其中三个人，赫比、达什和伯格，似乎对这次任务没有兴趣，其余的人都在猜测。
They're described as a not very impressive bunch, in over their heads.
他们被描述为一群不太令人印象深刻的人，不知所措。
Let's see here.
让我们看看这里。
All right.
好的。
These are copies of the official stenographic transcript of the proceeding before the military commission to try persons charged with offenses against the Law of War and The Articles of War.
这些是军事委员会审判被控违反战争法和战争条款罪的人的诉讼程序的官方速记副本。
In his office, Jonathan Mann flips through one of his many binders of trial transcripts.
在他的办公室里，乔纳森·曼翻阅着众多审判笔录活页夹中的一本。
Mann got interested in the Quirin case in the early '80s, the result, he says, of a history thesis gone awry.
曼恩在八十年代初对奎林案产生了兴趣，他说这是一篇历史论文出错的结果。
He'd spent years tracking down all the living participants in the case and these formerly secret trial transcripts.
他花了数年时间追踪该案所有在世的参与者以及这些以前秘密的审判笔录。
There are 18 binders in all.
总共有 18 个活页夹。
And reading through them, you get a sense for what the proceedings were like.
通读它们，你就能了解整个过程是怎样的。
They were held on the sixth floor of the Justice Department.
他们被关押在司法部六楼。
No press was allowed.
不允许有任何新闻报道。
Photos from the time show the defendants in the double-breasted suits and two-toned shoes that they had bought on their shopping spree.
当时的照片显示，被告穿着他们在疯狂购物时购买的双排扣西装和双色调鞋子。
And here's Eddie Kerling, Neubauer, Quirin, Thiel.
这是埃迪·克林、纽鲍尔、奎林、泰尔。
They were defended by an army officer named Colonel Kenneth Royall.
他们由一位名叫肯尼思·罗亚尔上校的军官保卫。
Colonel Royall didn't relish the idea of defending eight of his country's sworn enemies, but he took his job seriously.
罗亚尔上校并不喜欢保卫国家的八个不共戴天的敌人，但他认真对待自己的工作。
And right away, he realized that, if he was after a fair trial for them, he was in the wrong place.
他立刻意识到，如果他是在为他们寻求公平的审判，那么他来错地方了。
In the transcripts, the very first argument he makes to the commission is the same argument that those assigned to defend the detainees at Guantanamo are making today, namely that his clients should be allowed access to civilian courts.
在记录中，他向委员会提出的第一个论点与那些被指派为关塔那摩被拘留者辩护的人今天提出的论点相同，即他的当事人应该被允许进入民事法庭。
Colonel Royall immediately stands up and he says, "In deference to the commission and in order that we may not waive, for our clients, any rights which may belong to them, we desire to state that, in our opinion, the order of the President of the United States creating this court is invalid and unconstitutional."
罗亚尔上校立即站了起来，他说：“为了尊重委员会，也为了不让我们的客户放弃可能属于他们的任何权利，我们希望声明，我们认为，美国总统设立该法院的命令是无效且违宪的。”
Lloyd Cutler, who was a lawyer with the prosecution, says Royall's arguments fell on deaf ears, which isn't surprising considering who his audience was.
检方律师劳埃德·卡特勒 (Lloyd Cutler) 表示，罗亚尔的论点被置若罔闻，考虑到他的听众是谁，这并不奇怪。
The judges were seven major generals, of whom only one was a lawyer.
法官是七名少将，其中只有一名是律师。
And Attorney General Biddle asked the first question of one of the defendants, because all of them took the stand.
司法部长比德尔向其中一名被告提出了第一个问题，因为他们都出庭了。
Colonel Royall, who was assigned to defend those people, stood up and objected that no proper foundation for the question had been laid.
被指派保护这些人的罗亚尔上校站起来反对说，这个问题没有奠定适当的基础。
He was perfectly right, but under the military procedure, the court adjourned to decide how to deal with the motion.
他是完全正确的，但根据军事程序，法院休会以决定如何处理该动议。
And they stayed out for 45 minutes, which was just about long enough to smoke a good cigar.
他们在外面待了 45 分钟，这个时间刚好够抽一支好雪茄。
And they came back in and they denied the motion.
他们回来后拒绝了这项动议。
The next moment, the Attorney General asked the second question.
下一刻，总检察长又问出了第二个问题。
Colonel Royall objected a second time.
罗亚尔上校第二次表示反对。
The same thing happened: another 45-minute adjournment.
同样的事情发生了：又休会了 45 分钟。
The generals came back: motion denied.
将军们回来了：动议被拒绝。
And as a result, Royall never made another objection.
结果，罗亚尔再也没有提出反对意见。
But if the defense could read the writing on the wall, the men they were defending had a harder time.
但如果防守方能够读懂不祥之兆，那么他们所防守的人就会陷入困境。
The gulf between the facts as they understood them, and the story that was being told about them was so huge that, while the entire country was calling for them to be executed, they were thinking about their future.
他们所理解的事实与所讲述的关于他们的故事之间的鸿沟是如此巨大，以至于当整个国家都在呼吁处决他们时，他们却在思考自己的未来。
Again, writer, Michael Dobbs.
再次是作家迈克尔·多布斯。
They didn't really understand the extent of the trouble that they were in.
他们并不真正了解自己所面临的麻烦有多大。
After all, they hadn't actually carried out any sabotage against the United States.
毕竟他们并没有真正对美国进行任何破坏。
And at one point, Herbie Haupt said in the trial that the prosecutor asked him whether he said that he had intended to turn everybody in himself.
赫比·豪普特在审判中曾一度表示，检察官问他是否说过他打算亲自自首。
And the FBI said, oh, what would you do then?
联邦调查局说，哦，那你会怎么做？
And he said, well, then I intended to go off on my honeymoon with my old girlfriend from Chicago, who he had, in the meantime, proposed to.
他说，好吧，那么我打算和我来自芝加哥的老女友去度蜜月，同时他也向她求婚了。
And the prosecutor was incredulous and said, how can you think you'd go off on a honeymoon when you've just admitted to being part of a sabotage mission against the US?
检察官感到难以置信，并说，当你刚刚承认参与针对美国的破坏任务时，你怎么能想到去度蜜月呢？
And he said, well, if I turned everybody in, there'd be no reason to be guilty of anything, so I could go off on my honeymoon.
他说，好吧，如果我把所有人都告发了，那就没有理由犯任何罪了，这样我就可以去度蜜月了。
And I think that reflects the kind of naive attitude that he had to this mission.
我认为这反映了他对这一使命的天真态度。
He thought that, if he cooperated with the FBI, then perhaps they'd hold him for a little bit, but then they'd let him go.
他想，如果他和FBI合作，也许他们会拘留他一会儿，但随后就会放他走。
On July 27th, after making his final arguments before the commission, Colonel Royall sent an appeal to the Supreme Court.
7 月 27 日，罗亚尔上校在委员会提出最后论点后，向最高法院提出上诉。
That appeal would become the Quirin case.
该上诉后来成为奎林案。
In it, Royall argued that all legal precedent suggested that the saboteurs should be tried in civilian courts.
罗亚尔在其中辩称，所有法律先例都表明破坏者应在民事法庭受审。
Under intense pressure from the Administration, the Supreme Court took the highly unusual step of meeting out of session.
在政府的巨大压力下，最高法院采取了非常不寻常的步骤，即休庭开会。
Three days after hearing arguments, blinding speed for a Supreme Court, the Justices refused Royall's appeal, but they did settle in an even more unusual manner.
在听取辩论三天后，最高法院以惊人的速度驳回了罗亚尔的上诉，但他们确实以一种更不寻常的方式达成和解。
They offered their decision without any supporting opinions, saying, in effect, it's fine for now.
他们在没有任何支持意见的情况下提出了自己的决定，并表示，实际上，目前还可以。
You don't have to free them.
你不必释放他们。
We'll explain our reason soon.
我们很快就会解释我们的理由。
But nine days later, long before the opinions could possibly be issued, Roosevelt pronounced the sentences.
但九天后，早在意见可能发表之前，罗斯福就宣布了判决。
Dasch and Burger were given long jail time.
达什和伯格被判处长期监禁。
The other six, including Herbie Haupt, were executed in the electric chair.
包括赫比·豪普特在内的其他六人在电椅上被处决。
At the time, most people had no problem with that.
当时，大多数人对此没有任何问题。
And even today, Lloyd Cutler, who was one of the prosecutors, and Duane Traynor, the FBI agent, say it was the right decision.
即使在今天，检察官之一劳埃德·卡特勒和联邦调查局特工杜安·特雷纳仍然表示这是正确的决定。
It was wartime.
那是战时。
All six of them that got executed, you feel sorry for them.
他们六个人都被处决了，你为他们感到难过。
They really didn't want to do it.
他们真的不想这么做。
But they were allegedly trying to hurt the United States.
但据称他们试图伤害美国。
They were allegedly trying to do this, but you knew that at least six out of the eight of them really had no intention of doing anything.
据说他们是想这么做，但要知道，他们八人中至少有六人是真的无意做任何事。
Oh, it doesn't make any difference.
哦，这没有什么区别。
You have to make an example of them.
你必须为他们做一个例子。
Why was it important to make an example of them?
为什么以它们为例很重要？
Oh, you had to.
哦，你必须这么做。
You know, you're in war.
你知道，你正处于战争之中。
A lot of people in war get killed for no other reason that they're against it.
许多人在战争中被杀，只是因为他们反对战争。
People over there in Iraq are getting killed all the time, but it's war.
伊拉克那边的人们一直在被杀，但这是战争。
You have to look at them as enemies.
你必须将他们视为敌人。
As enemies, you have to deal with them that way.
作为敌人，你就必须这样对待他们。
The Quirin case authorized this notion of wartime justice, that, in times of war, we don't have the luxury of normal procedures and civil liberties.
奎林案证实了这种战时正义的概念，即在战争时期，我们没有正常程序和公民自由的奢侈。
But it didn't take until the end of the war for the Supreme Court justices, who made the Quirin decision, to start regretting it.
但直到战争结束，做出奎林案判决的最高法院法官才开始后悔。
Justice Stone had second thoughts the day he sat down to write the opinion for the court in 1942.
1942 年，当斯通法官坐下来为法庭撰写意见时，他又改变了想法。
It is clear that four of the nine justices, after the fact, believed they had made a mistake and pretty quickly came to the conclusion that they'd been buffaloed into this and regretted what they had done.
很明显，九名法官中有四人在事后认为自己犯了一个错误，并很快得出结论，他们被欺骗了，并对自己的所作所为感到后悔。
Michael Greenberger, a Law professor at the University of Maryland and head of the school's Center for Health and Homeland Security, has studied the Quirin case.
马里兰大学法学教授兼该校健康与国土安全中心主任迈克尔·格林伯格研究了奎林案。
Justice Black, in memos to other justices, for example, said that he felt as if he were involved in a meat market slaughtering cattle, and that it was a lesson to him that you could never decide a case by an order and then sit down and write out why you decided the case the way you did, that the writing itself evinces issues that you don't think about when you're just deciding thumbs up or thumbs down.
例如，布莱克法官在给其他法官的备忘录中说，他感觉自己好像参与了肉类市场屠宰牛的活动，这对他来说是一个教训，你永远不能通过命令来决定一个案件，然后坐下来写下你为什么这样决定这个案件，写作本身就表明了你在决定赞成或反对时不会考虑的问题。
So there's every sign that, if they'd given themselves the time to think it through, the decision would have been different, and they would have ruled that these people should have been tried in a civilian court, and this precedent wouldn't even exist.
因此，种种迹象表明，如果他们给自己时间仔细考虑的话，决定就会有所不同，他们会裁定这些人应该在民事法庭受审，而这个先例甚至不会存在。
Because of the special history of the case, the fact that it was written in haste in the early, dark hours of World War II, the fact that several justices regretted the decision, Quirin was a footnote for 60 years.
由于该案的特殊历史，加之它是在二战初期黑暗时期匆忙写成的，加之多位法官对这一判决感到遗憾，奎林成为了60年的注脚。
If anything, Quirin was a cautionary tale about the extremes courts go to in wartime, like the Korematsu case, which allowed the internment of Japanese-Americans.
如果说有什么不同的话，奎林是一个关于战时法院采取极端手段的警示故事，比如允许拘留日裔美国人的是松案。
It wasn't used as a precedent.
它没有被用作先例。
But after September 11th, the Bush administration started citing the case, saying that, again, we're a nation at war and that enemies captured on US soil should be tried in military courts.
但9月11日之后，布什政府开始援引此案，再次表示，我们是一个处于战争状态的国家，在美国领土上俘虏的敌人应该在军事法庭受审。
Greenberger says he understands the impulse to hold military trials, but says the danger of reviving the Quirin case like this is that we'll end up with show trials just like the saboteurs got.
格林伯格表示，他理解举行军事审判的冲动，但他表示，像这样重提奎林案的危险在于，我们最终会像破坏分子那样进行表演审判。
When you use a process that does not really help you get to the truth, you can easily commit injustices.
当您使用的流程并不能真正帮助您了解真相时，您很容易犯下不公正的行为。
Had these people been tried in a civilian court, the lack of threat these people posed to the United States would have been clearer.
如果这些人在民事法庭受到审判，这些人对美国构成的威胁就会更加明显。
And to the extent ex parte Quirin is being used today to say that people are guilty without giving them some kind of process, we are falling into the same pattern.
如今，奎林单方面被用来说人们有罪，却没有给予他们某种程序，我们正在陷入同样的模式。
This April, the Supreme Court will take up the case of Jose Padilla, a US citizen seized and held without charges for two years, and will decide, by summer, weather Quirin justifies that kind of treatment today.
今年四月，最高法院将审理美国公民何塞·帕迪拉（Jose Padilla）的案件，他是一名美国公民，在没有受到指控的情况下被逮捕并被关押了两年，并将在夏天之前决定奎林今天的这种待遇是否合理。
The verdict in the sabotage trial will be back in court again.
破坏罪审判的判决将再次回到法庭。
Chris Neary.
克里斯·尼尔里.
Coming up, we sit the pollsters down and we ask the questions.
接下来，我们让民意调查人员坐下来提出问题。
That's in a minute, from Chicago Public Radio and Public Radio International, when our program continues.
稍后，芝加哥公共广播电台和国际公共广播电台将继续我们的节目。
It's This American Life.
这就是美国生活。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Today on our program, The Facts Don't Matter.
今天在我们的节目中，事实并不重要。
We have arrived at Act Two of our program.
我们已经进入了计划的第二幕。
Act Two, Mush Polling.
第二幕，密集投票。
Whenever poll results have shown up in the news these last few months, I've thought about this story that one of our producers tells.
过去几个月，每当新闻中出现民意调查结果时，我都会想起我们的一位制作人讲述的这个故事。
She was a reporter at The Baltimore Sun.
她是《巴尔的摩太阳报》的记者。
And the newspaper commissioned polls on elections that were coming up.
该报还委托对即将举行的选举进行民意调查。
And it was our producer Sarah Koenig's job to call up the people who'd already been polled by this fancy polling organization, and ask them to shed some light on why they had chosen the particular candidates they had chosen, to put some quotes into a story about the poll.
我们的制作人莎拉·柯尼格的工作就是召集那些已经接受过这个精美民意调查组织民意调查的人，并要求他们解释为什么他们选择了他们所选择的特定候选人，并在有关民意调查的故事中引用了一些内容。
And Sarah says that the problem was so many of the people who she called didn't really know much about the candidates who they had chosen.
莎拉说，问题是她打电话的很多人并不真正了解他们所选择的候选人。
They didn't know what they stood for, or they had it wrong what they stood for.
他们不知道自己代表什么，或者他们误解了自己代表的是什么。
They'd say things like, oh, wait, is he that tall one?
他们会说，哦，等等，他有那么高吗？
The poll presented their opinions as hard fact, but really their opinions were kind of a vague cloud of feelings, wispy and malleable still.
民意调查将他们的观点呈现为确凿的事实，但实际上，他们的观点只是一种模糊的感情云，仍然飘忽不定，但具有可塑性。
And poll numbers, especially during elections, are a huge, big deal.
民意调查数字，尤其是在选举期间，是一件非常大的事情。
They dictate which candidate is going to get covered on the news, which dictates who's going to be able to raise campaign dollars.
他们决定哪位候选人将出现在新闻中，从而决定谁将能够筹集竞选资金。
They have real-world consequences.
它们对现实世界产生影响。
So how wispy are they?
那么它们到底有多细呢？
How worrisome is this?
这有多令人担忧？
Sarah went to find out.
莎拉前去一探究竟。
I called Zogby International, one of the country's main polling operations.
我给佐格比国际组织（Zogby International）打了电话，这是该国主要的投票机构之一。
It's run by John Zogby, who agreed to let me watch his callers conduct a tracking poll he was doing for Reuters and MSNBC of Wisconsin's presidential primary.
该网站由约翰·佐格比 (John Zogby) 负责运营，他同意让我观看他的来电者进行一项他正在为路透社和微软全国广播公司 (MSNBC) 进行的威斯康星州总统初选跟踪民意调查。
Zogby's call center in Utica, New York is on the third floor of an old General Electric factory.
佐格比位于纽约尤蒂卡的呼叫中心位于旧通用电气工厂的三楼。
The rest of the million-square-foot building is basically empty, so the feeling is of this one, buzzing cell inside a huge industrial carcass.
这座数百万平方英尺的建筑的其余部分基本上是空的，所以给人的感觉就是这个巨大的工业建筑内部嗡嗡作响的牢房。
The room is row after row of about 100 cubicles, but each contain a computer and that's it, no photos of kids or beanie babies on top of the machines.
房间里一排又一排，大约有 100 个隔间，但每个隔间都配有一台电脑，仅此而已，机器顶部没有孩子或豆豆宝宝的照片。
Supervisors walk up and down the aisles, making sure people are pronouncing words properly and sticking to the script.
主管在过道上走来走去，确保人们正确发音并遵守脚本。
As a Protestant, dear, do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian, an Evangelical, or a Fundamentalist?
亲爱的，作为一名新教徒，你认为自己是重生的基督徒、福音派还是原教旨主义者？
Born again?
重生？
That's wonderful.
太棒了。
I'll see you in heaven one day.
有一天我会在天堂见到你。
The Lord says we'll know one another.
主说我们会彼此认识。
Of course, some people have a much harder time sticking to the script than others.
当然，有些人比其他人更难坚持剧本。
Which of the following best describes your status in life, dear.
亲爱的，以下哪一项最能描述您的生活状况。
Are you married?
你结婚了吗？
Single?
单身的？
Oh, I know you were married.
哦，我知道你已经结婚了。
Are you a widow, dear?
亲爱的，你是寡妇吗？
I am very sorry.
我很抱歉。
I'm a widow also.
我也是个寡妇。
Trust me when I tell you my heart goes out to you.
相信我，当我告诉你我的心与你同在时。
Yes, I do appreciate where widows are coming from.
是的，我确实很欣赏寡妇的出身。
Do you, or does anyone in your household, keep a gun for, like, personal--
您或您家里的任何人是否持有枪支，例如个人用途——
The Wisconsin poll was short, a handful of questions about the general and primary elections and how the person felt about the candidates: very favorable, somewhat favorable, et cetera.
威斯康星州的民意调查很简短，有一些关于大选和初选的问题，以及人们对候选人的看法：非常有利、有些有利等等。
Then there were a bunch of demographic questions.
然后还有一系列人口统计问题。
The whole thing took about seven minutes.
整个过程持续了大约七分钟。
The Zogby staff I talked to were surprisingly idealistic about how important polling was for democracy.
与我交谈过的佐格比工作人员对于民意调查对于民主的重要性表现出令人惊讶的理想主义态度。
Aileen, the born-again widow you just heard, calls each respondent a good, American citizen at the end of the survey, and has been known to salute her computer.
您刚刚听到的重生寡妇艾琳在调查结束时称每位受访者都是优秀的美国公民，并且众所周知，她会向她的计算机致敬。
Another caller told me answering a poll is more effective than voting because politicians actually listen to polls.
另一位来电者告诉我，回答民意调查比投票更有效，因为政客实际上会听取民意调查。
Hello.
你好。
Good afternoon.
下午好。
My name is Boden and I'm calling from Zogby International.
我叫博登，是从佐格比国际打来的。
Today, we're doing a poll of Wisconsin voters for Reuters MSNBC News.
今天，我们正在为路透社 MSNBC 新闻对威斯康星州选民进行民意调查。
I watched Boden [?
我看了博登[？
Kwazoski ?] a farmer, and DJ, and MIT-trained physicist, make his calls for about an hour.
Kwazoski？] 是一位农民、DJ 和麻省理工学院毕业的物理学家，他的通话时间约为一个小时。
I wanted to see how often people are undecided, vague, or simply uninformed, and end up in the results anyway.
我想看看人们犹豫不决、含糊其辞或根本不了解情况的频率有多少，但无论如何最终都会得到结果。
The first thing I discovered is it's really hard to get someone to answer a poll.
我发现的第一件事是让某人回答民意调查真的很难。
For Zogby's Wisconsin sample of 600 completed surveys, they had to call almost 10,000 telephone numbers.
佐格比在威斯康星州完成了 600 份调查样本，他们必须拨打近 10,000 个电话号码。
In an hour, Boden reaches three people who are willing to stay on the phone to take the poll, which is average.
一个小时内，博登就联系到了三名愿意继续打电话参加民意调查的人，调查结果很平均。
And how likely are you to vote in the national elections: very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely?
您在全国选举中投票的可能性有多大：非常可能、有些可能还是不太可能？
Very likely.
很有可能。
The very first voter I watch him get is a woman: age 41, union member, separated, college graduate, white, conservative, makes between $35,000 and $50,000 a year.
我看到他获得的第一个选民是一位女性：41 岁，工会成员，分居，大学毕业生，白人，保守派，年收入 35,000 至 50,000 美元。
And she turns out to be exactly what I'm looking for.
事实证明她正是我要找的人。
And the Democratic candidates, the Democratic candidates for president in 2004 are Howard Dean, John Edwards, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, and Al Sharpton.
而民主党候选人，2004年民主党总统候选人是霍华德·迪恩、约翰·爱德华兹、约翰·克里、丹尼斯·库西尼奇和艾尔·夏普顿。
If the primary were held today, for whom would you vote out of these Democrats?
如果今天举行初选，您会从这些民主党人中投票给谁？
OK.
好的。
You sure you're not sure?
你确定你不确定吗？
Or might you be leaning towards one?
或者您可能倾向于其中一种？
You're not sure at this point.
你现在还不确定。
OK.
好的。
He enters undecided into his computer, and a screen comes up with this question, which is basically the same question asked in a different way.
他犹豫不决地进入电脑，屏幕上出现了这个问题，这基本上是同一个问题以不同的方式提出的。
And, if you had to choose today, if you had to choose, which candidate might you just be leaning towards: Dean, Edwards, Kerry, Kucinich, or Sharpton?
而且，如果你今天必须选择，如果你必须选择，你可能会倾向于哪位候选人：迪恩、爱德华兹、克里、库西尼奇还是夏普顿？
Just the slightest lean towards one of them, if you had to choose today?
如果你今天必须选择的话，你会倾向于其中一个吗？
Dean, Edwards, Kerry, Kucinich, or Sharpton?
迪恩、爱德华兹、克里、库西尼奇还是夏普顿？
Dean?
院长？
OK.
好的。
Thank you.
谢谢。
And there you have it.
现在你就得到了它。
She's officially a leaner.
她正式瘦了。
She'll now be counted as a Dean voter.
她现在将被算作迪恩选民。
In this particular poll, 7% of all the respondents were just like her, leaners who had to be prodded.
在这次特别的民意调查中，7% 的受访者和她一样，都是需要督促的学习者。
There is an I don't know button Boden can push for almost every question on the poll, but he's not allowed to offer it to the respondent.
博登几乎可以按下一个“我不知道”按钮来回答民意调查中的每个问题，但他不允许将其提供给受访者。
He can only use it if they say they don't know.
只有当他们说不知道时他才能使用它。
Everyone at Zogby seemed to truly care about getting an accurate poll, and none of them worried about whether they were pushing undecideds to choose.
佐格比的每个人似乎都真正关心获得准确的民意调查，没有人担心他们是否会推动尚未决定的选择。
In fact, the only person in the building who had any problem with how the poll dealt with uncertainty was me.
事实上，大楼里唯一对民意调查如何处理不确定性有任何疑问的人是我。
So I called someone outside the building.
于是我给大楼外面的人打电话。
I described what I'd seen at Zogby to Daniel Yankelovich, a famous, old-school pollster who started The New York Times Yankelovich Poll in the 1970s.
我向丹尼尔·扬克洛维奇（Daniel Yankelovich）描述了我在佐格比的所见所闻，丹尼尔·扬克洛维奇是一位著名的老派民意调查专家，他在 20 世纪 70 年代发起了《纽约时报扬克洛维奇民意调查》。
Now he's chairman of two organizations, Viewpoint Learning and Public Agenda.
现在他是观点学习和公共议程这两个组织的主席。
Yeah.
是的。
You were observing something that's very familiar, which is, on issues where people haven't made up their mind and where they haven't given the matter a lot of thought, that their points of view are inconclusive, vague, mushy, volatile, they could change their mind in a minute or overnight.
你观察到了一些非常熟悉的事情，那就是，在人们还没有下定决心、没有经过深思熟虑的问题上，他们的观点是不确定的、模糊的、糊涂的、反复无常的，他们可能会在一分钟或一夜之间改变主意。
And when you see these nice, crisp numbers on polls, they can be very misleading because they seem to suggest a definiteness and precision that is not really the case.
当你在民意调查中看到这些漂亮、清晰的数字时，它们可能会产生很大的误导，因为它们似乎表明了一种确定性和精确性，但事实并非如此。
Yankelovich has spent a lot of his career studying exactly what I was worried about.
扬克洛维奇在职业生涯中花了很多时间来研究我所担心的问题。
He first noticed the problem in the 1970s, and came up with a method of asking four questions on a poll that pinpointed exactly how strongly a person held his or her opinion.
他在 20 世纪 70 年代首次注意到这个问题，并想出了一种在民意调查中提出四个问题的方法，以准确指出一个人持有自己观点的强烈程度。
They were simple, like, on a scale of one to six, where one means that the issue affects you personally very little, and six means that you really feel deeply involved in this issue, where would you place yourself?
它们很简单，比如从一到六的等级，其中一意味着这个问题对你个人影响很小，六意味着你真的深深地参与到这个问题中，你会把自己放在哪里？
Then he rated the totals on a scale of firm to mushy.
然后他按照坚硬到糊状的等级对总数进行评级。
In published reports, the mushy answers would be indicated by an asterisk.
在已发表的报告中，模糊的答案将用星号表示。
His system was dubbed The Mushiness Index by Time Magazine , one of his clients at the time.
他当时的客户之一《时代》杂志将他的系统称为“Mushiness Index”。
And they were quite enthusiastic.
而且他们非常热情。
And then they found, when the reporters and writers sat down to write the stories, they found it slowed them up.
然后他们发现，当记者和作家坐下来写故事时，他们发现这减慢了他们的速度。
It slowed up the storytelling and, as a result, they just didn't use it.
它减慢了讲故事的速度，因此他们就没有使用它。
And it's one of the many clashes between journalistic values and polling values.
这是新闻价值观和民意调查价值观之间的众多冲突之一。
Not only is there a simple fix to mushy polls that's almost universally ignored, Yankelovich says some topics just generate more mushiness by their nature.
扬克洛维奇表示，不仅有一个简单的方法可以解决几乎被普遍忽视的混乱民意调查，而且有些话题本质上只会产生更多混乱。
The newer and more complicated the issue, the mushier the polls, and the higher the likelihood that the results will cause problems.
问题越新、越复杂，民意调查就越混乱，结果引发问题的可能性就越大。
It's happened many times in recent history.
这种事在近代史上已经发生过很多次了。
I mean, for example, when the Clinton Health Care Plan first surfaced in the early '90s, polls uniformly showed a more than 70% acceptance.
我的意思是，例如，当克林顿医疗保健计划在 90 年代初首次出现时，民意调查一致显示超过 70% 的接受率。
And when we dug behind the numbers, people were so vague and the answers were so mushy, people were just sort of uttering a truism, yeah, that would be very nice.
当我们挖掘这些数字背后时，人们是如此模糊，答案如此模糊，人们只是说出了一个不言而喻的道理，是的，那会非常好。
But if they had to go to any expense, or sacrifice on equality, or give up anything else, they weren't willing to do it.
但如果他们必须付出任何代价，或者为了平等而做出牺牲，或者放弃任何其他东西，他们就不愿意这样做。
And we came to the conclusion that it was not a 70% level of support.
我们得出的结论是，这不是 70% 的支持水平。
The real level of support was somewhere between 30% and 40%.
实际支持率在 30% 到 40% 之间。
Well, that's the difference between success and failure.
嗯，这就是成功与失败的区别。
That was the first real setback for the Clintons early in his term.
这是克林顿夫妇在其任期初期遇到的第一个真正的挫折。
On some big issues like this, he says it takes years, decades, for people to work out their opinions.
他说，在诸如此类的重大问题上，人们需要数年、数十年的时间才能得出自己的看法。
Take, for example, the gay marriage issue.
以同性婚姻问题为例。
It's new, it's just come up.
这是新的，刚刚出现。
There are fierce advocates on both extremes.
两个极端都有激烈的拥护者。
But the mass of the public is going to have the most mushy attitudes toward it.
但公众对此的态度将是最温和的。
So the fact that it's so new, it's controversial, it's full of moral ambiguity, you'd be crazy to trust poll results on a question of that sort.
事实上，它是如此新，它是有争议的，它充满了道德模糊性，你会疯狂地相信这类问题的民意调查结果。
But we do.
但我们做到了。
I mean, like every day you hear people say, well, the majority of Americans agree with the Administration.
我的意思是，就像你每天都会听到人们说的那样，大多数美国人都同意政府的观点。
There shouldn't be-- 60% of-- you know, whatever the number is.
不应该——60%——你知道，无论数字是多少。
You hear it all the time.
你总是听到它。
And as we do at the top and bottom of every hour, now here are your latest headlines.
正如我们在每个小时的顶部和底部所做的那样，现在这是您的最新头条新闻。
Senator John Kerry says he is fighting for every vote in Wisconsin despite a commanding lead over his Democratic rivals.
参议员约翰·克里表示，尽管威斯康星州的民主党对手遥遥领先，但他正在为威斯康星州的每一张选票而奋斗。
Zogby's poll aired on MSNBC the morning before Election Day.
佐格比的民意调查在选举日前一天早上在 MSNBC 播出。
According to our MSNBC Reuters Zogby poll, Senator John Kerry is leading Howard Dean 47 to 23.
根据 MSNBC 路透社 Zogby 民意调查，参议员约翰·克里 (John Kerry) 以 47 比 23 领先霍华德·迪恩 (Howard Dean)。
Senator John Edwards is in a close third with 20%.
参议员约翰·爱德华兹 (John Edwards) 以 20% 的支持率紧随其后，位居第三。
Commanding lead is the same language John Zogby used in a press release to describe John Kerry's chances.
约翰·佐格比在新闻稿中描述约翰·克里的机会时使用的语言是“领先”。
His quote was used by The Associated Press in a story that ran in many newspapers, including The Boston Globe and The LA Times , the day before the Wisconsin primary.
在威斯康星州初选前一天，美联社在一篇报道中引用了他的这句话，该报道在包括《波士顿环球报》和《洛杉矶时报》在内的许多报纸上刊登。
The problem was, Kerry ended up with a skimpy lead instead.
问题是，克里最终的领先优势微乎其微。
He won, but only beat John Edwards by four percentage points, not 27.
他赢了，但只比约翰·爱德华兹高了 4 个百分点，而不是 27 个百分点。
And Dean, instead of coming in second, as Zogby's poll showed, was a distant third.
迪恩并没有像佐格比的民意调查显示的那样位居第二，而是远远落后于第三。
Zogby wasn't the only pollster who got it wrong.
佐格比并不是唯一一个弄错的民意调查者。
The day after the election, the power of incorrect polling was laid out like a textbook example.
选举后的第二天，错误投票的力量就像教科书上的例子一样被阐述出来。
Edwards was on the front page of The New York Times , not because he'd beaten Kerry, but because he'd beaten the polls predictions.
爱德华兹登上了《纽约时报》的头版，不是因为他击败了克里，而是因为他击败了民调预测。
Some people complained all this gave Edwards an artificial boost, which helped him raise $310,000 on the internet the day after the election.
一些人抱怨这一切给爱德华兹带来了人为的推动，这帮助他在大选后的第二天在互联网上筹集了 31 万美元。
And, they said, the faulty numbers make Kerry look like more of a loser than he really was.
而且，他们说，错误的数字让克里看起来更像是一个失败者，而不是他真正的样子。
Newspaper stories talked of Kerry scratching out a victory and Edwards as a serious challenger in a sudden two-man race.
报纸报道称克里赢得了胜利，而爱德华兹则成为一场突然出现的两人竞赛中的有力挑战者。
I called Zogby to find out what happened.
我打电话给佐格比了解发生了什么事。
He was in LA and spoke to me from his cell phone.
他在洛杉矶，用手机和我说话。
If he sounds a little defensive, it's because he was.
如果他听起来有点防御性，那是因为他确实如此。
Zogby is a controversial figure in polling circles.
佐格比在民调界是一个颇具争议的人物。
Some of his colleagues claim his methods aren't rigorous enough, and that he hypes his results in order to market his company.
他的一些同事声称他的方法不够严格，而且他夸大自己的结果是为了推销他的公司。
On the other hand, his polls are accurate enough, often enough, that he has some major clients.
另一方面，他的民意调查足够准确，而且经常足够，因此他有一些主要客户。
Is this an example where the vagueness of those people's answers played out in a way that you couldn't anticipate what's going to happen?
这是一个例子，那些人的答案含糊不清，以一种你无法预料会发生什么的方式发挥作用？
All right.
好的。
That's an interesting question.
这是一个有趣的问题。
But look, all we're doing is taking a snapshot of a moment in time.
但是看，我们所做的只是及时拍摄某个时刻的快照。
Polls should not be seen as being predictors, even though we try to do that.
民意调查不应被视为预测因素，尽管我们试图这样做。
Polls need to be seen as taking a temperature at a given point in time.
民意调查需要被视为在给定时间点测量体温。
And there is not a doubt in my mind that my poll was relatively accurate Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
毫无疑问，我周五、周六和周日的民意调查相对准确。
Zogby told me he had to stop Sunday afternoon because his client needed the numbers for Monday morning's Today Show .
佐格比告诉我，他必须在周日下午停下来，因为他的客户需要周一早上《今日秀》的数字。
The problem was, after Zogby's callers stopped their work, Edwards was endorsed by Wisconsin's biggest newspaper and then did very well in a televised debate, and people changed their minds.
问题是，在佐格比的来电者停止工作后，爱德华兹得到了威斯康星州最大报纸的支持，然后在电视辩论中表现出色，人们改变了主意。
Some pollsters I talked to said stuff like that happens all the time, and Zogby should have known better than to stop Sunday afternoon, Today Show or no Today Show.
我采访过的一些民意调查专家说，这样的事情一直在发生，佐格比应该知道最好不要停止周日下午的《今日秀》或没有《今日秀》。
I conducted a miniature poll of my own, just to see if something else could have affected the Wisconsin results.
我自己进行了一项小型民意调查，只是为了看看是否有其他因素影响了威斯康星州的结果。
I got the phone numbers for Zogby's respondents and spoke to 15 of them.
我得到了 Zogby 受访者的电话号码，并与其中 15 人进行了交谈。
Most people said they voted for the person they told Zogby they would vote for, and some had well-thought-out reasons why.
大多数人表示，他们投票给了他们告诉佐格比他们会投票给的人，有些人有深思熟虑的理由。
Two people said they never made it to the polls at all.
有两个人说他们根本没有参加投票。
And then there was Douglas Wills.
然后是道格拉斯·威尔斯。
Hello.
你好。
Sarah Koenig Wills was listed as a Dean voter in the poll results.
莎拉·科尼格·威尔斯（Sarah Koenig Wills）在民意调查结果中被列为迪安选民。
Well, they said, if I had to choose one of the Democratic candidates, who would I vote for?
好吧，他们说，如果我必须选择一位民主党候选人，我会投票给谁？
Dean, I believe.
迪恩，我相信。
Sarah Koenig Dean.
莎拉·科尼格·迪安.
OK.
好的。
Did you, in fact, end up voting for Dean?
事实上，你最终投票给了迪恩吗？
No, I voted for Bush.
不，我投票给布什。
Sarah Koenig So in the poll, though, when they gave you the choice, you decided to pick one.
Sarah Koenig 所以，在民意调查中，当他们给你选择时，你决定选择一个。
Yes.
是的。
Sarah Koenig OK.
莎拉·科尼格 好的。
How did you come up with Dean?
你是怎么想到迪恩的？
Oh, I really don't know.
哦，我真的不知道。
I just picked one.
我刚选了一个。
I said, to whoever called me, I said, well, I didn't think that I would vote for a Democrat.
我说，无论谁打电话给我，我都说，好吧，我不认为我会投票给民主党。
And they said, well, if you did vote for a Democrat, which one would you vote for?
他们说，好吧，如果你真的投票给民主党，你会投票给哪一个？
And they kind of forced me into making a choice.
他们强迫我做出选择。
Harley Schmieden was also listed as a Dean voter and said he liked what Dean had done about health care in Vermont, and did, in fact, vote for him.
哈雷·施米登也被列为迪恩选民，并表示他喜欢迪恩在佛蒙特州医疗保健方面所做的工作，并且事实上也投票给了迪恩。
Here's why he chose Dean over John Kerry, because of a mistake I'm sure a lot of people make.
这就是他选择迪恩而不是约翰·克里的原因，因为我确信很多人都会犯一个错误。
I'm a World War II veteran.
我是一名二战老兵。
Anyway, and Kerry was boasting about his Vietnam record, but what he didn't tell you was when he mowed down the women and children over there one time.
不管怎样，克里正在吹嘘他的越战记录，但他没有告诉你的是，他有一次砍倒了那里的妇女和儿童。
He did?
他做到了？
Harley Schmieden I don't know if you're even familiar with that story.
哈雷·施米登 我不知道你是否熟悉这个故事。
Oh, yeah.
哦，是的。
He shouldn't boast about his war record.
他不应该吹嘘自己的战争记录。
I thought the Kerry who got in trouble in Vietnam was Bob Kerrey.
我以为在越南遇到麻烦的克里就是鲍勃·克里。
No, I'm pretty sure it's Bob Kerrey, who is also a Democrat.
不，我很确定是鲍勃·克里，他也是民主党人。
Is that his brother?
那是他的兄弟吗？
Sarah Koenig No, there's no relation.
莎拉·柯尼格 不，没有关系。
In fact, Kerry is spelled slightly differently.
事实上，Kerry 的拼写略有不同。
Then I'm mistaken, but that's what I thought.
那我错了，但我就是这么想的。
I thought it was John.
我以为是约翰。
Then there was Melanie Faith, who was watching TV when I called.
然后是梅兰妮·费思，我打电话时她正在看电视。
She was counted as voting for Dennis Kucinich.
她被算作投票给丹尼斯·库西尼奇。
Oh, you don't?
哦，你不知道吗？
Melanie Faith No, I don't.
梅兰妮·费思 不，我不这么认为。
Is he running for state?
他正在竞选州议员吗？
Oh, no, no, no. I was not interested in him.
哦，不，不，不。我对他不感兴趣。
No.
不。
You weren't?
你不是吗？
Melanie Faith No, I wasn't.
梅兰妮·费丝 不，我不是。
Yes, I did.
是的，我做到了。
Sarah Koenig And for who did you vote?
莎拉·科尼格（Sarah Koenig） 你投票给谁了？
No. No, it wasn't.
不，不，不是。
Sarah Koenig Several other people I talked to reminded me of the Baltimore Sun poll respondents.
莎拉·科尼格 (Sarah Koenig) 与我交谈的其他几个人让我想起了《巴尔的摩太阳报》民意调查的受访者。
Like this one woman who had an opinion, she voted for Kerry, but she really just couldn't say why.
就像这位有意见的女人一样，她投票给了克里，但她真的无法说出原因。
The thing she liked about Kerry was Kerry.
她喜欢凯瑞的就是凯瑞。
Only about half the electorate turns out for presidential elections and, of those, one prominent pollster told me, only about 20% are paying close attention to the race.
只有大约一半的选民参加总统选举，一位著名民意调查专家告诉我，其中只有大约 20% 的选民密切关注竞选。
In primaries, the percentages are even smaller.
在初选中，这一比例甚至更低。
That means that, most of the time, what political pollsters end up measuring are those mushy feelings that lead to big, general conclusions about a candidate.
这意味着，大多数时候，政治民意调查机构最终衡量的是那些导致对候选人做出大而笼统结论的模糊感受。
The classic lesson on this was the presidential election in 1984.
这方面的经典教训是 1984 年的总统选举。
At the end of the campaign, a Gallup poll asked people a series of policy questions.
竞选结束时，盖洛普民意调查向人们提出了一系列政策问题。
Who do you agree with, Walter Mondale or Ronald Reagan?
您同意谁的观点，沃尔特·蒙代尔还是罗纳德·里根？
And most people said Mondale.
大多数人都说蒙代尔。
Then they asked them who they planned to vote for, and most people said Reagan.
然后他们问他们打算投票给谁，大多数人都说里根。
Sarah Koenig.
莎拉·科尼格.
Credits Ira Glass You know, you can download audio of our program at audible.com/thisamericanlife.
图片来源 Ira Glass 您知道，您可以在 audible.com/thisamericanlife 下载我们节目的音频。
They have public radio programs, bestselling books, even The New York Times , all at audible.com.
他们有公共广播节目、畅销书，甚至《纽约时报》，都在 audible.com 上。
This American Life is distributed by Public Radio International.
《美国生活》由国际公共广播电台发行。
[FUNDING CREDITS] WBEZ management oversight by Mr. Torey Malatia, who says--
[资金来源] 由 Torey Malatia 先生监督的 WBEZ 管理，他说——
I'm Ira Glass, back next week with more stories of This American Life.
我是艾拉·格拉斯，下周回来，带来更多《美国生活》的故事。
This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.
《This American Life》与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。