227: Why We Fight - This American Life
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00:00 00:00 Transcript Share This American Life Life Partners How to Listen Episodes Recommended About Overview Staff Announcements Fellowships Jobs Music Make Radio On The Road FAQ Submissions Merch Contact Us Our Other Shows Merch Follow Us Life Partners Subscribe to our newsletter Full episode Toggle Audio and Transcript Sync Transcript | Episode #227 | December 20, 2002 227: Why We Fight Note: This American Life is produced for the ear and designed to be heard.
00:00 00:00 文字记录 分享此 美国生活 生活伙伴 如何收听 剧集 推荐 关于 概述 员工公告 奖学金 工作 音乐 在路上制作电台 常见问题解答 提交 商品 联系我们 我们的其他节目 商品 关注我们 生活伙伴 订阅我们的时事通讯 整集 切换音频和文字记录同步 文字记录 | 内容第 227 集 | 2002 年 12 月 20 日 227：我们为何战斗 注：《美国生活》是为耳朵而制作的，旨在让人们听到。
If you are able, we strongly encourage you to listen to the audio, which includes emotion and emphasis that's not on the page.
如果可以的话，我们强烈建议您收听音频，其中包括页面上没有的情感和重点。
Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors.
文字记录是使用语音识别软件和人工转录员结合生成的，可能包含错误。
Please check the corresponding audio before quoting in print.
请在印刷版引用前检查相应的音频。
Prologue Ira Glass Call me old-fashioned, but I still believe that before we go to war with any country, we have to agree as a nation on how to pronounce its name: I-rack E-rack, Irock, Errack.
序言 Ira Glass 你可以说我很守旧，但我仍然相信，在我们与任何国家开战之前，我们作为一个国家必须就其名字的发音达成一致：I-rack E-rack、Irock、Errack。
Let's get it together people.
让我们一起来吧人们。
Have you heard this story?
你听过这个故事吗？
Back in July, a Democratic senator on the Senate Intelligence Committee asked the nation's intelligence agencies for a report explaining just how much of a threat Saddam Hussein was.
早在七月份，参议院情报委员会的一位民主党参议员就要求国家情报机构提供一份报告，解释萨达姆·侯赛因的威胁有多大。
There are 13 different intelligence agencies in our country.
我国有 13 个不同的情报机构。
And they were saying different things.
他们说的是不同的话。
So Senator Bob Graham from Florida asked for a report, which would look at all the data from all the agencies and come to one set of conclusions.
因此，来自佛罗里达州的参议员鲍勃·格雷厄姆要求提供一份报告，该报告将查看所有机构的所有数据并得出一组结论。
If the Senate was going to have to vote on a war, it seemed important to have a clear sense of just how much danger Iraq posed or did not pose.
如果参议院必须就战争进行投票，那么清楚地了解伊拉克构成或不构成多大危险似乎很重要。
He had to ask a few times.
他不得不问了几次。
It got, actually, rather heated.
事实上，它变得相当激烈。
It took a long time, so long that by October, the Senator accused the CIA of obstructionism for failing to get this information to the Senate.
这花了很长时间，以至于到了十月，参议员指责中央情报局蓄意阻挠，未能将这一信息提交给参议院。
And then, finally, just a few days before the congressional vote on the war, he got his report.
最后，就在国会就战争进行投票的前几天，他收到了报告。
And when Senator Graham read this report and what it said, he thought it was so important that he asked the intelligence agencies to declassify some of its main conclusions so it could be released to the general public, which he says they agreed to do.
当格雷厄姆参议员读到这份报告及其内容时，他认为这非常重要，因此他要求情报机构解密其中的一些主要结论，以便将其发布给公众，他说他们同意这样做。
But it seemed that what they had done is declassify those parts of the report which essentially supported the position that we ought to go to war with Iraq as a first priority.
但他们所做的似乎是解密了报告中那些基本上支持我们应该将与伊拉克开战作为首要任务的立场的部分。
Other pieces of information and analysis which were in the report were not released.
报告中的其他信息和分析并未公布。
So he went back and asked for some of the other material-- the stuff that did not necessarily support the case for war-- to be declassified.
于是他回去要求解密一些其他材料——那些不一定支持战争理由的材料。
And after a few days of wrangling, it finally was.
经过几天的争论，终于是这样了。
And what it said was this-- and this is actually the part of the story that maybe you've heard if you pay close attention to the news.
它所说的是这样的——这实际上是故事的一部分，如果你密切关注新闻，你可能已经听到过。
The intelligence community concluded that Saddam Hussein was not an imminent threat, that he probably would not use his weapons of mass destruction for the foreseeable future-- that was actually the exact phrase they used: for the foreseeable future-- unless we attacked and started to win a war against him.
情报界的结论是，萨达姆·侯赛因并不是迫在眉睫的威胁，他在可预见的未来可能不会使用大规模杀伤性武器——这实际上是他们使用的确切短语：在可预见的未来——除非我们攻击并开始赢得针对他的战争。
At which point, he probably would use his weapons of mass destruction.
到那时，他可能会使用他的大规模杀伤性武器。
When Saddam Hussein reaches the conclusion that all is lost, that he is, in fact, about to be removed from power, at that point, he becomes the most dangerous.
当萨达姆·侯赛因得出一切都已失败的结论时，他实际上即将被赶下台，此时，他就成为最危险的人。
And that danger would be reflected in his use of weapons of mass destruction against the invading troops, on neighboring countries.
这种危险将体现在他对入侵部队和邻国使用大规模杀伤性武器。
And third, he would likely, 75% or greater chance, form alliances with terrorist groups in order to initiate terrorist attacks against the American people here at home.
第三，他有可能（75%或更大的可能性）与恐怖组织结成联盟，以便对国内的美国人民发起恐怖袭击。
In other words, if we're going to war to prevent Saddam Hussein from using his weapons of mass destruction, going to war will actually cause the very thing that we're starting the war to prevent.
换句话说，如果我们要通过战争来阻止萨达姆·侯赛因使用他的大规模杀伤性武器，那么战争实际上会导致我们发动战争所要阻止的事情。
Now it's not like this story didn't get any play.
现在看来，这个故事并没有没有得到任何发挥。
It was in the paper for a day or two.
它在报纸上出现了一两天。
There were reports on radio and television.
电台、电视台都有报道。
But then, after a couple of days, it just kind of dropped off the radar.
但几天后，它就从雷达上消失了。
And at this point, for a politician or for a member of the press to bring it up-- it's hard to bring it up without seeming like you're just out there on the fringe, like you're some kind of extremist, pinko, unpatriotic, like you're against the President, like you are picking a fight.
在这一点上，对于政客或新闻界人士来说，提出这个问题时，很难不显得你只是处于边缘，就像你是某种极端分子、粉红、不爱国，就像你反对总统，就像你在挑衅一样。
In the weeks that followed that report coming out, I've sometimes thought about it as I've seen other news stories.
在该报告发布后的几周内，我有时会像看到其他新闻报道一样思考它。
And it always has this feeling of, did that really happen?
总有一种感觉，这真的发生过吗？
Did that really happen?
这真的发生了吗？
It's like this event which vanished off the face of the earth, never to be spoken of again.
这件事就像从地球表面消失了一样，再也不会被提起。
And if you ask Senator Graham, he says that he really thought that declassifying this material would have more impact on the debate over going to war with Iraq.
如果你问格雷厄姆参议员，他说他真的认为解密这些材料会对有关与伊拉克开战的辩论产生更大的影响。
Yes, I thought that this identification of the danger here in the homeland by an energized group of foreign terrorist agents would have caused us to say, let's reassess what our priorities are.
是的，我认为，当一个充满活力的外国恐怖分子特工组织对祖国的危险进行识别时，我们会说，让我们重新评估我们的优先事项是什么。
And, in my judgment, such a reassessment would have led to the conclusion that the first thing we should do is to reduce, to the maximum extent possible, the capability of these terrorists who are sleeping among us.
而且，根据我的判断，这样的重新评估会得出这样的结论：我们应该做的第一件事就是最大限度地减少这些潜伏在我们中间的恐怖分子的能力。
And once we had concluded that we had accomplished that objective, then turned to the issue of Iraq.
一旦我们得出结论认为我们已经实现了这一目标，然后就转向伊拉克问题。
Mm hm.
嗯嗯。
Bob Graham I assume you have, or will be talking to people in the administration and asking them questions.
鲍勃·格雷厄姆（Bob Graham）我认为你已经或将要与政府人员交谈并向他们提问。
Now, this kind of caught me off guard.
现在，这让我措手不及。
At the end of our conversation, Senator Graham told me he had some questions of his own for the administration, that he would like for me to ask them about Saddam using his weapons of mass destruction against us.
在我们谈话结束时，格雷厄姆参议员告诉我，他自己有一些问题要向政府提出，他希望我向他们询问萨达姆对我们使用大规模杀伤性武器的情况。
The question that I would ask is, do you have a different assessment of what the consequences of a successful war against Iraq would be than that which has been now made public by the US intelligence community?
我想问的问题是，您对伊拉克战争成功的后果的评估是否与美国情报界现在公开的评估不同？
And then, what are you doing to deal with this potential threat against the people of the United States?
那么，您正在采取什么措施来应对这种对美国人民的潜在威胁？
And when you've gone to the administration, and when the committee has posed these questions, what have they told you all?
当你去找政府时，当委员会提出这些问题时，他们告诉了你们什么？
It's just passive and non-responsive, essentially denial, that the most important thing to do now is to take down Saddam Hussein.
这只是被动的、没有反应的，本质上是否认现在要做的最重要的事情是打倒萨达姆·侯赛因。
And if that involves accepting some potential adverse consequences, so be it.
如果这涉及接受一些潜在的不利后果，那就这样吧。
So if I can just speak for myself and the staff of this radio program, we're confused.
因此，如果我只能代表我自己和这个广播节目的工作人员发言，我们就会感到困惑。
We still have some basic questions about why we're going to war and whether it's a good thing.
关于为什么我们要发动战争以及这是否是一件好事，我们仍然有一些基本问题。
And we are not alone.
我们并不孤单。
In fact, the staff of this radio show is squarely with the majority of Americans on this issue.
事实上，这个广播节目的工作人员在这个问题上与大多数美国人是完全一致的。
A Los Angeles Times poll this week revealed that while most Americans support the idea of going to war, we like our president, most of us also feel that the President has not explained why we're doing this.
《洛杉矶时报》本周的一项民意调查显示，虽然大多数美国人支持发动战争的想法，但我们喜欢我们的总统，但我们大多数人也认为总统没有解释我们为什么要这样做。
2/3 of Americans say that he has failed to make a convincing case that war with Iraq is justified.
2/3 的美国人表示，他未能提出令人信服的理由来证明与伊拉克的战争是正当的。
We're with him.
我们和他在一起。
We're rooting for him.
我们支持他。
But we don't know why.
但我们不知道为什么。
Here are some tourists from around the country at the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree in New York City.
这是纽约市洛克菲勒中心圣诞树上来自全国各地的一些游客。
I have mixed feelings.
我的心情很复杂。
I have more issues with bin Laden than I do with what's going on in Iraq.
我对本·拉登的不满比我对伊拉克发生的事情的不满还要多。
There's other ways to deal with the issue.
还有其他方法可以解决这个问题。
I don't think that it's compelling enough to go to war.
我不认为它有足够的说服力去发动战争。
I haven't really decided yet.
我还没有真正决定。
I think I'm for it.
我想我是赞成的。
But I don't know the details.
但我不知道细节。
I have mixed feelings about it.
我对此百感交集。
I want to see proof that there indeed is a threat to the country.
我想看到证据证明这个国家确实面临威胁。
Today on our program, we step into the breach.
今天，在我们的节目中，我们走进了这个缺口。
We ask a few simple questions about the coming war and get some answers.
我们就即将到来的战争提出一些简单的问题并得到一些答案。
From WBEZ Chicago, it's This American Life , distributed by Public Radio International.
来自芝加哥 WBEZ 的《This American Life》，由国际公共广播电台发行。
Each week, as you may know, we choose some theme and bring you a variety of different kinds of stories on that theme.
如您所知，我们每周都会选择一些主题，并为您带来有关该主题的各种不同类型的故事。
Today's program, Why We Fight.
今天的节目《我们为何而战》。
Our program in four acts.
我们的节目分为四幕。
Act One, Senator's Proxy.
第一幕，参议员的代理人。
In that act, we get some poor soul from the administration on the phone to answer Senator Graham's very loaded questions.
在那次行动中，我们接到了政府部门的一些可怜人的电话，回答了格雷厄姆参议员提出的非常棘手的问题。
Act Two, When Firas Comes Marching Home Again, in which we hear from an Iraqi soldier, who might have to fight the United States in the coming war, about what chances he thinks he has against the most powerful military in the history of man.
第二幕，当费拉斯再次踏上归途时，我们听到一名可能在即将到来的战争中与美国作战的伊拉克士兵讲述他认为自己对抗人类历史上最强大的军队的机会有多大。
Act Three, Realism 101.
第三幕，现实主义101。
We think that it is possible that the most compelling arguments for the war and the most compelling arguments against the war are both arguments that you have not heard.
我们认为，支持战争的最有说服力的论据和反对战争的最有说服力的论据可能都是你们没有听说过的。
Act Four, Kids' Letters to Santa-- excuse me-- to President Bush.
第四幕，孩子们给圣诞老人的信——对不起——给布什总统。
Stay with us.
留在我们身边。
Act One, Senator's Proxy.
第一幕，参议员的代理人。
OK.
好的。
Let's just say up front that we all take it for granted here that when a politician asks a reporter to go to his political opponent with a question, that is one of the oldest tricks in the book.
让我们先说一下，我们都理所当然地认为，当一位政客要求记者向他的政治对手提问时，这是书中最古老的伎俩之一。
Having said that, it seemed like a good question.
话虽如此，这似乎是一个很好的问题。
And I have to say, after trying to get an answer from the administration, I understand Senator Graham's frustration.
我不得不说，在试图从政府那里得到答案后，我理解格雷厄姆参议员的沮丧。
We tried calling five, yes five, different places within our Federal Government: the White House, the National Security Council, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the Pentagon's new head of domestic counterterrorism.
我们尝试给联邦政府内部的五个，是的，五个不同的地方打电话：白宫、国家安全委员会、国防威胁降低局、五角大楼新任国内反恐负责人。
All of them had the very good sense to turn us down.
他们所有人都很明智地拒绝了我们。
And then, we remembered that President Bush had created an office for this very purpose, the Office of Homeland Security.
然后，我们记得布什总统为此目的设立了一个办公室，即国土安全办公室。
There, we found somebody who kindly agreed to speak with us, namely--
在那里，我们找到了一个好心同意与我们交谈的人，即——
Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for the White House Office of Homeland Security.
戈登·约翰德罗，白宫国土安全办公室发言人。
Now, the intelligence community concluded in October that if we attack Saddam Hussein, if he's cornered, then he'd be likely to use his weapons of mass destruction, his chemical or biological weapons, on troops, on neighboring countries, or here in the United States.
现在，情报界在十月得出的结论是，如果我们攻击萨达姆·侯赛因，如果他被逼入绝境，那么他很可能对军队、邻国或美国使用他的大规模杀伤性武器、化学或生物武器。
And it's that last possibility we wanted to talk to you about.
这就是我们想和您讨论的最后一种可能性。
It's of particular concern to Senator Bob Graham from Florida.
来自佛罗里达州的参议员鲍勃·格雷厄姆尤其关注这一点。
And he had a question or two he wanted us to ask you.
他有一两个问题想让我们问你。
[LAUGHS] OK.
[笑]好的。
Ira Glass First of all, do you all have a different assessment of the consequences of cornering Saddam Hussein?
Ira Glass 首先，你们对逼迫萨达姆侯赛因的后果有不同的评估吗？
Do you agree that he might strike here in the US if we start winning the war?
你是否同意，如果我们开始赢得战争，他可能会袭击美国这里？
Well, one, the President has made no decision about going to war, he says war is his last resort.
嗯，第一，总统还没有做出关于发动战争的决定，他说战争是他的最后手段。
Sure.
当然。
Gordon Johndroe But secondly, homeland security agencies will raise our protective measures and take the appropriate actions to address the threat.
戈登·约翰德罗 但其次，国土安全机构将提高我们的保护措施，并采取适当的行动来应对威胁。
And is it the assessment still of the Office of Homeland Security-- do they agree with the intelligence community, back in October, that if we in fact do go to war, and if in fact we start winning, then the threat is greater here at home?
国土安全办公室的评估是否仍然如此——他们是否同意情报界的观点，早在十月份，即如果我们确实开战，并且事实上我们开始获胜，那么国内的威胁会更大吗？
That is an assessment for the intelligence community to make.
这是情报界要做的评估。
And if intelligence suggests that Iraq is planning an attack, and we have information on it, we will respond to that.
如果情报表明伊拉克正在计划发动袭击，并且我们掌握了相关信息，我们将做出回应。
But if one is to take this intelligence assessment seriously, what do you want us to walk away from this with, those of us who've read this in the paper or have heard about this?
但是，如果要认真对待这一情报评估，那么您希望我们这些在报纸上读到或听说过这一点的人远离这一点？
Do you want us to believe, OK, if we go to war with Iraq, you guys have us covered?
你想让我们相信，好吧，如果我们与伊拉克开战，你们会保护我们吗？
We don't need to worry?
我们不需要担心吗？
Or do you want us to think, if we go to war with Iraq, OK, we should all understand we're in a little bit more danger here?
或者你想让我们认为，如果我们与伊拉克开战，好吧，我们都应该明白我们在这里面临的危险更大一些？
Well, I think that just remains to be seen.
嗯，我认为这还有待观察。
And what people need to be reassured is that if that leads to heightened concerns about threats and potential attacks, we will take the appropriate action to meet those threats.
人们需要放心的是，如果这导致人们对威胁和潜在攻击的担忧加剧，我们将采取适当的行动来应对这些威胁。
And how confident is the Department of Homeland Security that it could stop any threat?
国土安全部对于阻止任何威胁有多大信心？
What our responsibility is to do is to take action to prevent and protect.
我们的责任就是采取行动预防和保护。
And if, unfortunately, we are unable to do that, then we will respond to save as many lives as possible.
不幸的是，如果我们无法做到这一点，那么我们将做出回应，以拯救尽可能多的生命。
Recently, we put together all the transactions, all the people that get visas, or all people that cross our borders, or fly into our airports, or containers that come in, and there are about 1.3 billion transactions a year where a terrorist or a terrorist weapon could come into this country.
最近，我们把所有交易、所有获得签证的人、所有越过我们边境的人、或者飞进我们机场的人、或者进来的集装箱放在一起，每年大约有 13 亿笔交易可能导致恐怖分子或恐怖武器进入这个国家。
And we have to be right 1.3 billion times a year.
我们每年必须正确 13 亿次。
And the terrorists only have to be right once.
恐怖分子只需做对一次。
Well, I think most people would agree, though, that this is a challenge, but that everyone is rising to this challenge.
嗯，我想大多数人都会同意，这是一个挑战，但每个人都在迎接这一挑战。
When I talked to Senator Graham, he raised this possibility.
当我与格雷厄姆参议员交谈时，他提出了这种可能性。
He wondered if it was the administration's position that you're prepared to accept whatever the consequences will be here in the United States, that it's more important to the country to eliminate Saddam Hussein, and that if some people should die in US cities as a result, well, we don't have a choice.
他想知道政府的立场是否是准备好接受美国将面临的任何后果，消灭萨达姆·侯赛因对国家来说更重要，如果一些人因此死在美国城市，那么我们别无选择。
That's the cost of war.
这就是战争的代价。
Well, I would just say that the President's number one responsibility and number one job is protecting the American people.
嗯，我只想说，总统的首要责任和首要工作是保护美国人民。
Right.
正确的。
But is it-- Gordon Johndroe The President is not willing to give up lives, like you say, like Senator Graham says, almost kind of casually in the way that he couched it.
但是，戈登·约翰德罗（Gordon Johndroe）总统不愿意放弃生命，就像你说的那样，就像参议员格雷厄姆所说的那样，他表达的方式几乎是随意的。
And I just-- I take issue with that.
我只是——我对此有异议。
Well, he was wondering if that was the administration's policy.
好吧，他想知道这是否是政府的政策。
Is it?
是吗？
No, it is not the administration's policy.
不，这不是政府的政策。
The administration's policy is to protect Americans.
政府的政策是保护美国人。
Gordon Johndroe of the Office of Homeland Security.
国土安全办公室的戈登·约翰德罗。
[MUSIC-"MEAN OLD WORLD" BY SAM COOKE]
[音乐-山姆·库克的《Mean OLD WORLD》]
Act Two, When Firas Comes Marching Home Again.
第二幕，当费拉斯再次踏上归途时。
OK.
好的。
We're going to continue asking basic questions from people in the United States about why we're going to war in just a few minutes, in Act Three.
在第三幕中，我们将继续向美国人询问基本问题，即为什么我们会在几分钟内爆发战争。
And we actually get some explanations that do explain it.
我们实际上得到了一些确实可以解释它的解释。
But before we get to all of that, we wanted to hear some Iraqi perspectives on this.
但在我们讨论所有这些之前，我们想听听伊拉克对此的一些看法。
Though, if you've paid even the slightest attention to news reports, you know that it is very difficult for reporters to get anyone in Iraq to speak honestly about the regime or the coming war.
不过，如果你稍微关注过新闻报道，你就会知道记者很难让伊拉克的任何人诚实地谈论该政权或即将到来的战争。
They're too frightened of reprisals from the government.
他们太害怕政府的报复。
There is a huge population of Iraqis who come in and out of the country every day just over the border from Iraq in Jordan.
每天都有大量伊拉克人进出该国，就在约旦的伊拉克边境附近。
There, they can speak more freely.
在那里，他们可以更自由地说话。
And Adam Davidson talked to a few of them.
亚当·戴维森与其中一些人进行了交谈。
If you want to get a sense of how many people are passing back and forth between Jordan and Iraq every day, you just need to go to the eastern part of Amman where there's this gigantic parking lot next to a big highway.
如果你想了解每天有多少人往返于约旦和伊拉克之间，你只需要去安曼东部，那里有一个巨大的停车场，毗邻一条高速公路。
The lot is filled with neatly lined up SUVs and Chevrolet Caprices-- the car used by taxi drivers and cops back in the States-- that drive every day, back and forth between Baghdad and Amman.
停车场里停满了整齐排列的 SUV 和雪佛兰 Caprice（美国出租车司机和警察使用的汽车），每天在巴格达和安曼之间来回行驶。
It's hard to understand how they stay so clean.
很难理解它们是如何保持如此干净的。
They're all white, except for these orange panels at each corner.
除了每个角落的橙色面板外，它们都是白色的。
They look brand new even though they drive 9 to 12 hours through the desert at least once a day, and often twice.
尽管他们每天至少一次（通常是两次）开车穿越沙漠 9 至 12 小时，但它们看起来还是崭新的。
These cars bring hundreds of Iraqi refugees here every day.
这些汽车每天将数百名伊拉克难民运送到这里。
There are about 150,000 of them in Amman right now, whole neighborhoods filled with nothing but Iraqis.
目前安曼大约有 15 万人，整个街区都挤满了伊拉克人。
The cars also smuggle cigarettes, family carpets and silverware, dates-- Iraq is famous for its dates-- anything of value.
这些汽车还走私香烟、家庭地毯、银器、枣子（伊拉克因枣子而闻名）以及任何有价值的东西。
So most things coming from or going to Iraq spend some time in Amman, a lot of them in this parking lot.
因此，大多数来自或前往伊拉克的物品都会在安曼停留一段时间，其中很多都在这个停车场。
The first Iraqi I run into is Firas, a tall, elegant man in a jalabiya robe and a leather jacket.
我遇到的第一个伊拉克人是费拉斯（Firas），他是一个身材高大、优雅的男人，穿着贾拉比亚长袍和皮夹克。
He sells cloth in Baghdad.
他在巴格达卖布料。
And he came to Amman for a few days to meet up with his cousin who has been living abroad, saving money for the family back home in Iraq.
他来到安曼几天，与一直住在国外的表弟见面，为伊拉克的家人攒钱。
Firas tells me he's a reserve soldier.
费拉斯告诉我他是一名预备役士兵。
He fought on the front lines of the Iran-Iraq war and the Persian Gulf War.
他曾参加过两伊战争和海湾战争的前线。
And he knows he'll be called upon soon to fight the Americans.
他知道他很快就会被要求与美国人作战。
Have you had special training recently, in the last few months, for this American war?
最近几个月，你有没有为这场美国战争接受过特殊训练？
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Omar Translating I didn't get any training in the last two years in the Iraqi Army, in any unit, or even any units I knew about from my friends, they didn't have any training in the last two years.
[说阿拉伯语] Omar 翻译 过去两年我没有在伊拉克军队、任何部队、甚至我从朋友那里了解到的任何部队接受过任何训练，他们在过去两年没有接受任何训练。
But we have enough experience of fighting in the last 15, 20 years with Iran, with the Americans, the Gulf War.
但我们在过去 15 年、20 年与伊朗、美国人、海湾战争中拥有足够的经验。
We are very well prepared, even without getting any experience or any training to refresh our army or the power of the Iraqi Army today.
我们已经做好了充分的准备，即使没有获得任何经验或任何训练来更新我们的军队或伊拉克军队今天的力量。
Have you gotten orders yet for this war?
这场战争你接到命令了吗？
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Omar Translating 3, 4 days before the war, usually, they call us to dress and to go to our units.
[说阿拉伯语] 奥马尔 翻译 在战前三四天，通常他们会叫我们穿好衣服，去我们的部队。
And usually, we do that easily.
通常，我们很容易做到这一点。
So we go to the last unit that we served in.
所以我们去了我们服役的最后一个单位。
And we know where the location is of that.
我们知道它的位置在哪里。
Easily, we can get into there.
很容易，我们就可以进入那里。
Now, what we're told in America is that the Iraqi Army-- I don't want to offend you-- but that it's weak right now.
现在，我们在美国被告知的是，伊拉克军队——我不想冒犯你——但它现在很弱。
It doesn't have the training.
它没有训练。
It doesn't have the money.
它没有钱。
It doesn't have the support.
它没有支持。
And so we're told it will be a tough fight, but we're going to win it very easily.
所以我们被告知这将是一场艰苦的战斗，但我们会很容易赢得它。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Omar Translating We know that America is a superpower now in the world.
[说阿拉伯语] 奥马尔翻译 我们知道美国现在是世界上的超级大国。
Nobody can fight America in the whole world.
全世界没有人能与美国抗衡。
But what are we going to do?
但我们要做什么呢？
America is going to use the computer wars, and electronic wars, and very strong bombardments.
美国将使用计算机战争、电子战争以及非常强烈的轰炸。
And they will attack us.
他们会攻击我们。
And they will kill us.
他们会杀了我们。
But we have to defend ourselves.
但我们必须保卫自己。
Do you see Iraqi soldiers preparing for the ground war in Baghdad or in your city?
您是否看到伊拉克士兵在巴格达或您所在的城市为地面战争做准备？
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Omar Translating We've been in wars in the last 25 years.
[说阿拉伯语] 奥马尔 翻译 过去 25 年我们一直处于战争之中。
Do you understand what I mean by 25 years?
你明白我说的25年是什么意思吗？
Almost 2/3 of my age now, of my life.
几乎是我现在年龄的2/3，我生命的2/3。
So the Iraqi Army, they're not really prepared for anything, because they are expecting that the Americans will kill them all, and they can't do anything against it.
所以伊拉克军队，他们并没有真正做好任何准备，因为他们期望美国人将他们全部杀死，而他们对此无能为力。
So this is the situation.
所以就是这样的情况。
I ask him if he thinks he'll die.
我问他是否认为自己会死。
His reply is what any Muslim might say, that we believe in Allah.
他的回答是任何穆斯林都会说的，我们相信安拉。
We believe in death.
我们相信死亡。
Death will come now, or it will come later, Allah decides.
死亡现在就会到来，或者稍后会到来，安拉决定。
I ask him if he'd like Americans to get rid of Saddam.
我问他是否希望美国人除掉萨达姆。
And he tells me Saddam is bad.
他告诉我萨达姆很坏。
But whoever the Americans install could be worse.
但无论美国人安装谁，情况都可能更糟。
He doesn't expect any good leader to come to Iraq.
他并不期望任何好的领导人来到伊拉克。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Adam Davidson Then, Firas says he has to go.
[说阿拉伯语] Adam Davidson 然后，Firas 说他必须走了。
He has to help his friend Adnan move some rugs.
他必须帮助他的朋友阿德南搬一些地毯。
I ask if I can come along.
我问我是否可以一起去。
And we walk a few hundred yards down the road.
我们沿着路走了几百码。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Omar Translating These rugs are at least 50 to 60-year-old rugs.
[阿拉伯语] Omar 翻译 这些地毯至少有 50 到 60 年的历史。
So we usually buy them from Iraqi poor people who want to buy food, so they sell their rugs and their carpets.
所以我们通常从想要购买食物的伊拉克穷人那里购买它们，所以他们卖掉他们的地毯。
They have them at home.
他们家里有。
Adnan left Baghdad 10 months ago and now oversees this rug smuggling business.
阿德南 10 个月前离开巴格达，现在负责监管这一地毯走私业务。
We're standing next to a store.
我们站在一家商店旁边。
I say store, it was really just an empty concrete room about the size of a small garage, packed floor to ceiling with rolled up rugs.
我说的是商店，它实际上只是一个空荡荡的混凝土房间，大约有一个小车库大小，从地板到天花板都堆满了卷起来的地毯。
Adnan and Firas watch five guys load them onto a truck heading to Saudi Arabia.
阿德南和费拉斯看着五个人把它们装上一辆开往沙特阿拉伯的卡车。
Adnan invited us into his apartment.
阿德南邀请我们去他的公寓。
The house is three medium-sized concrete rooms with rugs everywhere.
房子是三间中等大小的混凝土房间，到处都铺着地毯。
They sleep on rugs in the back.
他们睡在后面的地毯上。
They sit on rugs in the living room, which is completely bare except for the rugs and one plastic chair.
他们坐在客厅的地毯上，除了地毯和一把塑料椅子之外，客厅什么都没有。
We sit, Adnan the rug merchant, Firas the soldier, and a bunch of young 18-ish Iraqi guys who never say a single word, but follow our conversation attentively.
我们坐着，地毯商人阿德南，士兵菲拉斯，还有一群 18 岁左右的伊拉克年轻人，他们一句话也不说，但聚精会神地听着我们的谈话。
Then this Egyptian guy they're all friends with shows up.
然后这个他们都是朋友的埃及人出现了。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Adam Davidson I want to talk with him about the coming war.
[说阿拉伯语] Adam Davidson 我想和他谈谈即将到来的战争。
But the Egyptian guy launches into all these ready-made speeches about how America wants to destroy Islam, how all Americans hate Arabs, hate Islam.
但这个埃及人开始发表所有这些现成的演讲，说美国如何想要摧毁伊斯兰教，所有美国人如何憎恨阿拉伯人，憎恨伊斯兰教。
I keep telling him that most Americans don't know anything about Arabs or Islam and don't really care.
我一直告诉他，大多数美国人对阿拉伯人或伊斯兰教一无所知，而且并不真正关心。
They just worry about their own lives.
他们只担心自己的生活。
He doesn't believe me.
他不相信我。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Adam Davidson When I look over at the Iraqis, they look completely bored.
[说阿拉伯语] 亚当·戴维森 当我看着伊拉克人时，他们看起来完全无聊。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Adam Davidson Finally, there's a break in the conversation.
[说阿拉伯语] Adam Davidson 谈话终于暂停了。
And I ask the Iraqis what they think.
我询问伊拉克人的想法。
They tell me they don't care about these big issues.
他们告诉我他们不关心这些大问题。
They don't care about Islam versus the West, about America's evil plans to destroy all Arabs.
他们不关心伊斯兰教与西方的对抗，不关心美国消灭所有阿拉伯人的邪恶计划。
Those are just abstractions to them.
这些对他们来说只是抽象。
They know that their homes might be bombed in a few weeks.
他们知道他们的家可能会在几周内遭到轰炸。
And they seem genuinely curious to understand anything I can tell them about what Americans are thinking.
他们似乎真的很想了解我能告诉他们的美国人的想法。
Here's Firas, the soldier.
这是费拉斯，士兵。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Omar Translating What's all that issue about Saddam Hussein?
[说阿拉伯语] 奥马尔翻译 关于萨达姆·侯赛因的问题是什么？
Saddam Hussein, the Americans made him bigger than-- give him bigger than his-- his name is much bigger than his size.
萨达姆·侯赛因，美国人让他比他更大——让他比他更大——他的名字比他的身材大得多。
What does Saddam mean?
萨达姆是什么意思？
He's very small.
他很小。
So he's nothing.
所以他什么都不是。
So why?
那么为什么呢？
Americans know things that we don't know here?
美国人知道我们不知道的事情吗？
Firas is sure the guy is bad.
菲拉斯确信这家伙很坏。
But there are worse people, like the North Koreans.
但还有更糟糕的人，比如朝鲜人。
And I don't know what to say to him.
而且我不知道该对他说什么。
So I stumble around like an idiot, trying to explain American foreign policy, which I honestly don't understand myself, to people whose families might be bombed-- another conversation you find yourself in with disturbing frequency around here.
所以我像个白痴一样跌跌撞撞，试图向那些家庭可能遭到轰炸的人们解释美国的外交政策，老实说我自己也不明白——这是你在这里频繁发生的令人不安的对话。
I mean, I find it very confusing myself.
我的意思是，我自己也觉得很困惑。
I think there are few-- George Bush-- it's very hard to fight--
我认为很少有人——乔治·布什——很难战斗——
Then Adnan, the rug merchant, tells me that most Iraqis he knows support a war.
然后地毯商人阿德南告诉我，他认识的大多数伊拉克人都支持战争。
They want America to get rid of Saddam.
他们希望美国除掉萨达姆。
But they're worried.
但他们很担心。
He says, and I've heard this a lot, that the uprising against Saddam after the Gulf War was very real and widespread.
他说，我听过很多次，海湾战争后反对萨达姆的起义是非常真实和广泛的。
And the Americans just abandoned them.
而美国人就抛弃了他们。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Omar Translating We are with the Americans if they are true, if they're not going to change their mind now.
[说阿拉伯语] 奥马尔翻译 如果美国人是真的，如果他们现在不打算改变主意，我们就支持他们。
We are with them 100%.
我们100%支持他们。
But we are afraid.
但我们害怕。
And Saddam is really preparing and now having groups of terrorists.
萨达姆确实在做准备，现在已经有了恐怖分子团体。
And they are ready to attack the Americans, American soldiers, and American troops, and American civilians in most of the Arab countries during the war.
他们准备在战争期间袭击大多数阿拉伯国家的美国人、美国士兵、美国军队和美国平民。
This, of course, is exactly what American intelligence has been predicting since October.
当然，这正是美国情报部门自十月以来一直在预测的。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Adam Davidson Adnan then, more or less, begs me to tell all of America about his best friend who was taken away by Saddam's Mukhabarat secret police and killed just because he started a home prayer group.
[说阿拉伯语] 亚当·戴维森·阿德南或多或少恳求我向全美国讲述他最好的朋友的事，他被萨达姆的穆哈巴拉特秘密警察带走并杀害，只是因为他创办了一个家庭祈祷小组。
Adnan tells me to use his real name and his friend's real name and to take his picture, things Iraqis usually won't do with the press, and which, in the end, I decided not to do.
阿德南告诉我使用他的真名和他朋友的真名，并给他拍照，这是伊拉克人通常不会对媒体做的事情，最终我决定不这样做。
But Adnan is so sick and tired of the situation, he doesn't care what happens.
但阿德南对这种情况感到非常厌倦，他不在乎发生什么。
He just wants the truth out.
他只是想知道真相。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Omar Translating So Saddam Hussein is a man of violence.
[说阿拉伯语] 奥马尔翻译 所以萨达姆·侯赛因是一个暴力之人。
Saddam Hussein killed his people.
萨达姆·侯赛因杀害了他的人民。
Saddam Hussein used chemicals against his people.
萨达姆·侯赛因对他的人民使用化学物质。
Saddam Hussein used biological against his people.
萨达姆·侯赛因使用生物手段对付他的人民。
So fear is the principle of our life today in Iraq.
因此，恐惧是我们今天在伊拉克生活的原则。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Adam Davidson While he's saying this, Firas, the soldier, starts looking nervous.
[说阿拉伯语] 亚当·戴维森 (Adam Davidson) 说这句话时，士兵费拉斯 (Firas) 开始显得紧张。
He's going back to Baghdad in a few days.
几天后他就要返回巴格达。
And my guess is that he doesn't want to say anything that will get him in trouble.
我的猜测是他不想说任何会给他带来麻烦的事情。
And so I turn to him.
于是我转向他。
You don't want to talk about this stuff, do you?
你不想谈论这些事情，是吗？
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Firas [SPEAKING ARABIC]
[阿拉伯语] 菲拉斯 [阿拉伯语]
I've never heard of these things before.
我以前从未听说过这些事情。
He looks directly in my eyes, smiling as he says this.
他直视着我的眼睛，微笑着说这句话。
Basically, you know what I'm doing.
基本上，你知道我在做什么。
I know what I'm doing.
我知道我在做什么。
Everyone knows what I'm doing.
每个人都知道我在做什么。
He adds that he's happy with Saddam, but he doesn't know what the other guys think.
他补充说，他对萨达姆很满意，但他不知道其他人怎么想。
Saddam Hussein is such a peaceful man, he says.
他说，萨达姆侯赛因是一个非常和平的人。
He doesn't even know he invaded Kuwait.
他甚至不知道他入侵了科威特。
[LAUGHTER]
[笑声]
They're laughing, you know?
他们在笑，你知道吗？
Saddam Hussein didn't hear about his army invading Kuwait.
萨达姆侯赛因没有听说他的军队入侵科威特。
[LAUGHS] He's a very peaceful person.
[笑]他是一个非常平和的人。
There are so many Iraqis here, and they're so desperate.
这里有很多伊拉克人，他们非常绝望。
It's amazing who you meet and what they say to you.
你遇到的人以及他们对你说的话真是太神奇了。
A couple days later, when Omar and I are walking around a different Iraqi neighborhood a young guy sees my microphone, comes up to us, and talks fast in Arabic.
几天后，当我和奥马尔在伊拉克的另一个社区散步时，一个年轻人看到我的麦克风，走到我们面前，用阿拉伯语快速交谈。
He says he was one of Saddam's personal bodyguards and would like to help the Americans kill him.
他说他是萨达姆的私人保镖之一，愿意帮助美国人杀死他。
He wants to talk to me, he says.
他想和我谈谈，他说。
But he can't do it in his neighborhood because people might turn him in to the Iraqis.
但他不能在他的社区这样做，因为人们可能会将他告发给伊拉克人。
I invite him to my hotel.
我邀请他来我的酒店。
And he comes along.
他也来了。
He asked me not to use his real name, or his voice, for that matter.
他要求我不要使用他的真名或声音。
It's just too dangerous.
这太危险了。
So I'll call him Nabil.
所以我就叫他纳比尔吧。
And you'll only hear Omar's translation.
你只会听到奥马尔的翻译。
Nabil is a big guy, fat and tall.
纳比尔是个大个子，又胖又高。
But he holds himself like an elite soldier.
但他把自己视为一名精锐士兵。
He sits in my room and tells me a lot about Saddam's palaces.
他坐在我的房间里，告诉我很多关于萨达姆宫殿的事情。
He said that one of Saddam's palaces, Saddam's favorite, has a giant glass floor built on top of a huge aquarium with sharks and giant fish.
他说，萨达姆最喜欢的宫殿之一，有一个巨大的玻璃地板，上面建有一个巨大的水族馆，里面有鲨鱼和巨鱼。
Later, I check into this, and it's true.
后来我查了一下，确实如此。
His life was great when he guarded Saddam.
当他守护萨达姆时，他的生活很美好。
Saddam personally gave him a grand apartment.
萨达姆亲自送给他一套豪华公寓。
What was he like?
他是什么样的人？
Did you get to know him?
你认识他了吗？
Was he ever funny?
他曾经很有趣吗？
Did you like him?
你喜欢他吗？
It seems that Saddam Hussein has a special personality, unique personality.
看来萨达姆侯赛因有一种特殊的个性，独特的个性。
When you come to look at him on the TV, you come to hate him.
当你在电视上看到他时，你就会开始恨他。
For all the things that he made for the people, you come to hate him.
对于他为人民所做的一切，你开始恨他。
But when you come close to him, and you just come one meter, two meters from him, you just change your mind.
但当你走近他，距离他只有一米、两米的时候，你的想法就改变了。
Different feelings usually come to your mind.
你的脑海中通常会浮现出不同的感觉。
Different feelings come to your body.
你的身体会出现不同的感觉。
Different feelings come to your eyes when you look at him.
当你看着他的时候，你的眼里会浮现出不同的感觉。
When you come very close to him, it seems that there is magic in this personality and in this man.
当你离他很近时，你会发现这个人的个性和这个人身上似乎有魔力。
Nabil quit the army when his term was over.
纳比尔任期结束后退出军队。
And a few days later was arrested by the Mukhabarat, the secret police, and taken to a prison for divulging secrets about Saddam's palaces.
几天后，他因泄露萨达姆宫殿的秘密而被秘密警察 Mukhabarat 逮捕，并被关进监狱。
He tells me that it wasn't true what he was accused of.
他告诉我，他所受到的指控并不属实。
It was trumped up.
这是捏造的。
But still, they beat him with steel pipes, badly.
但他们还是用钢管打他，打得很厉害。
He shows me his arm and forehead where the bones haven't healed properly.
他给我看了他的手臂和额头，那里的骨头还没有完全愈合。
Half his teeth are bashed in and haven't been fixed.
他的一半牙齿被撞坏了，还没有矫正。
He says that he was in jail for weeks and finally was released, but was then told by a friend that he was targeted for death.
他说，他在监狱里呆了几周，最后被释放，但随后一位朋友告诉他，他已成为死刑目标。
So he escaped to Amman.
于是他逃到了安曼。
He said he was always a healthy man, but now he just smokes and drinks coffee and thinks of ways to kill Saddam.
他说他一直是个健康的人，但现在他只是抽烟、喝咖啡，想着杀死萨达姆的方法。
You said you want to help the Americans.
你说你想帮助美国人。
Have you tried to make contact with the Americans?
你尝试过与美国人接触吗？
I'm always scared, because I don't know if the Mukhabarat are watching me now or not.
我总是很害怕，因为我不知道 Mukhabarat 现在是否在看着我。
I don't know when they're going to kill me.
我不知道他们什么时候会杀了我。
I don't know whom I have to contact.
我不知道我该联系谁。
But if anybody wants to use me-- and for sure I know everything.
但如果有人想使用我——而且我肯定知道一切。
I know where are all the weapons are that they took from Kuwait, where it is now.
我知道他们从科威特拿走的所有武器现在在哪里。
And I know where the stores are, where they store it, in the north, and the south, and in the center of Iraq.
我知道商店在哪里，在哪里储存，在伊拉克的北部、南部和中部。
Of course, there's no way to tell if he's credible or not without going into Iraq and doing inspections.
当然，不去伊拉克实地考察，就无法判断他的说法是否可信。
So Hans Blix, here's what he's got.
汉斯·布利克斯，这就是他所得到的。
He told me there are weapons of mass destruction.
他告诉我有大规模杀伤性武器。
And they're sitting in giant, movable bunkers under the sand dunes in a suburb of Tikrit.
他们坐在提克里特郊区沙丘下的巨大可移动掩体中。
He didn't want money or any special privileges.
他不想要钱，也不想要任何特权。
He just wanted to talk to somebody.
他只是想和某人谈谈。
The next day, I go to the Iraqi Embassy in Amman, because part of the reason why I'm here is that I'm trying to get into Baghdad like all the other reporters.
第二天，我去了伊拉克驻安曼大使馆，因为我来这里的部分原因是我想像所有其他记者一样进入巴格达。
In the past two weeks, I've probably spent 30 hours at the embassy waiting to get a visa.
在过去的两周里，我大概在大使馆等待签证花了30个小时。
Usually, a bunch of US reporters sit in a clump in the lobby, and nobody talks to us.
通常，一群美国记者坐在大厅里，没有人跟我们说话。
But that day, an old man came up to me and my translator and said he'd like to tell us things about Saddam.
但那天，一位老人走到我和我的翻译面前，说他想告诉我们有关萨达姆的事情。
I told him he shouldn't be talking to me in the embassy.
我告诉他他不应该在大使馆里和我说话。
And he agreed to meet us the next night.
他同意第二天晚上与我们见面。
So the next night, my translator, Omar, and I pick him up at a gas station in a poor Iraqi neighborhood and take him to Omar's house.
所以第二天晚上，我的翻译奥马尔和我在伊拉克贫困社区的一个加油站接了他，并带他去了奥马尔的家。
He tells me he was a famous dancer in Iraq.
他告诉我他是伊拉克一位著名的舞蹈家。
He has that sort of regal, straight-backed dancer's presence.
他有一种高贵、挺直的舞者气质。
He says he used to be in charge of several major theaters.
他说，他曾经负责过几家大剧院。
And every year, he put on the big birthday celebration for Saddam.
每年他都会为萨达姆举办盛大的生日庆祝活动。
He met the man several times and had a very nice life.
他与这个男人见过几次面，过着非常美好的生活。
Then, his brother was killed for being loyal to one of Saddam's opponents, and the dancer came under suspicion.
然后，他的兄弟因忠于萨达姆的一位对手而被杀，这位舞者也受到怀疑。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Omar Translating They beat me in the minister's office.
[说阿拉伯语] 奥马尔 翻译 他们在部长办公室殴打了我。
And then, they called the Mukhabarat intelligence.
然后，他们称之为 Mukhabarat 情报部门。
And they took me in a van.
他们带我上了一辆面包车。
And three people, they beat me until we arrived at the police station.
还有三个人，他们殴打我，直到我们到达派出所。
And after that, I was in the Mukhabarat.
之后，我就到了Mukhabarat。
There, I couldn't sleep for more than 30 days.
在那里，我有30多天无法入睡。
They put me in a small prison, one meter by one meter.
他们把我关在一个一米一米的小监狱里。
I couldn't realize if it's dark or light, if it's night or day.
我分不清现在是黑还是亮，是黑夜还是白天。
And I stayed there for three years.
我在那里呆了三年。
His story doesn't get any better.
他的故事并没有变得更好。
Not only did they constantly beat him, but they cut his right ear in half, broke his legs, his arms, his hands, and put knives in his back.
他们不仅经常殴打他，还把他的右耳砍成两半，打断他的腿、胳膊、手，还在他的背上插刀。
One day, he says, Saddam's son, Uday, came by and oversaw the torture.
他说，有一天，萨达姆的儿子乌代过来监督了酷刑。
At one point, he made the man take off all his clothes and told him, you're a dancer.
有一次，他让那人脱掉所有衣服，并告诉他，你是一名舞者。
You have to dance now.
你现在必须跳舞。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Omar Translating Yes, of course, they cut all his fingers.
[说阿拉伯语] 奥马尔翻译 是的，当然，他们砍掉了他所有的手指。
They broke all my fingers.
他们折断了我所有的手指。
They look like they've been broken, yeah.
他们看起来就像被打破了，是的。
He just pulled his fingers to show how they pulled it.
他只是拉动手指来展示他们是如何拉动它的。
And you can see that his nails are not put-- you can see that his nails are not-- they're scarred all around.
你可以看到他的指甲没有放好——你可以看到他的指甲没有放好——它们周围都伤痕累累。
God, it's so upsetting to look at his hands.
天啊，看着他的手真让人心烦意乱。
It's just so upsetting looking at him.
看着他真是让人心烦意乱。
His hands are just-- they look like they were broken and put back together.
他的双手看起来像是断了又重新合起来的。
[SPEAKING ARABIC] Adam Davidson After he left prison, he went to find his wife and discovered that she had been taken and killed because she screamed bad things about Saddam in the street after he was arrested.
[阿拉伯语] 亚当·戴维森 (Adam Davidson) 出狱后，他去找妻子，发现她已被带走并杀害，因为她在萨达姆被捕后在街上大喊萨达姆的坏话。
Then, his six-year-old son died from some untreated illness.
然后，他六岁的儿子因某种疾病未得到治疗而去世。
The man is now homeless and told me he was walking the streets, begging for money when he came upon the Iraqi Embassy.
该男子现在无家可归，他告诉我，当他来到伊拉克大使馆时，他正在街上乞讨。
He decided to just go in, sit down, and wait for someone to arrest him and kill him.
他决定直接进去，坐下来，等待有人逮捕他并杀死他。
He says that's when he saw us and decided to stay alive a little bit longer.
他说就在那时他看到了我们并决定再活一会儿。
Maybe our interview would help somehow.
也许我们的采访会有所帮助。
At one point, he pulled out an article about himself from eight years ago, just eight years ago.
有一次，他翻出了一篇关于自己八年前的文章，就在八年前。
I thought it was 30 years old.
我以为已经30岁了。
In the picture, he looks so young and happy and healthy, standing proudly in front of a group of his dance students.
照片中，他显得那么年轻、快乐、健康，自豪地站在一群舞蹈学生面前。
And he started to beat me.
他开始打我。
Adam Davidson The old man spoke softly, calmly, crying a little bit every now and then.
亚当·戴维森老人说话轻声、平静，时不时地哭一下。
And while he talked, my translator, Omar's, eyes were wet.
当他说话时，我的翻译奥马尔的眼睛湿润了。
He could barely speak the words.
他几乎说不出话来。
If I could say a word about what it's been like to talk to all these people, I came to the middle east thinking this war that's coming is a terrible thing.
如果我能谈谈与所有这些人交谈的感受的话，我来到中东，认为即将到来的战争是一件可怕的事情。
I still don't really understand why we're doing it.
我仍然不太明白我们为什么要这样做。
But I feel sick.
但我感觉不舒服。
I really, actually have had a stomach ache this whole week talking to these Iraqis, hearing what Saddam Hussein has done to his people.
我真的，实际上整个星期都胃痛，与这些伊拉克人交谈，听到萨达姆·侯赛因对他的人民所做的一切。
One woman sobbed as she told me about her son who was killed because he wouldn't fight in the Persian Gulf War.
一位女士在向我讲述她的儿子因不愿参加波斯湾战争而被杀时抽泣着。
A middle-aged man explained how members of the regime took food from his grocery store until he protested, and they beat him and threw him in jail for a year.
一名中年男子讲述了政权成员如何从他的杂货店抢走食物，直到他提出抗议，然后他们殴打了他，并将他投入监狱一年。
Now, he sits in a room all day in Amman with his wife and six kids, because he's too afraid he'll be deported back to Iraq where he'd be killed.
现在，他与妻子和六个孩子整天坐在安曼的一个房间里，因为他太害怕自己会被驱逐回伊拉克，在那里他会被杀。
After talking to all these Iraqi exiles, I want Saddam Hussein to die.
在与所有这些伊拉克流亡者交谈之后，我希望萨达姆·侯赛因死。
I asked pretty much every Iraqi if they fantasize about life after Saddam, if they ever think, wow, in three or four months, he might be dead, my country might be free?
我问几乎每个伊拉克人，他们是否幻想过萨达姆之后的生活，是否想过，哇，三四个月后，他可能会死，我的国家可能会自由？
Not one said they think about it.
没有人说他们考虑过这一点。
They're too tired.
他们太累了。
And Saddam Hussein has been there for so long, they just can't imagine life without him.
萨达姆·侯赛因已经在那里呆了这么久，他们简直无法想象没有他的生活。
I just hope we do the right thing, that if there's a war, whatever ruler ends up running Iraq is a good man.
我只是希望我们做正确的事，如果发生战争，无论最终统治伊拉克的统治者都是好人。
Adam Davidson in Amman, Jordan.
亚当·戴维森在约旦安曼。
Coming up, Dear Mr. President, my birthday is November 12.
亲爱的总统先生，我的生日是 11 月 12 日。
And I'll be 15, so if you are president, you'll get me something, and other kids' letters to George Bush in this time of war.
我就 15 岁了，所以如果你是总统，你会给我一些东西，还有其他孩子在战争时期写给乔治·布什的信。
That's in a minute from Chicago Public Radio and Public Radio International when our program continues.
一分钟后，芝加哥公共广播电台和国际公共广播电台将继续我们的节目。
It's This American Life .
这就是美国生活。
I'm Ira Glass.
我是艾拉·格拉斯。
Each week on our program, of course, we choose some theme and bring you a variety of different kinds of stories on that theme.
当然，每周我们的节目都会选择一些主题，并为您带来有关该主题的各种不同类型的故事。
Today's program, Why We Fight, stories trying to understand the coming war with Iraq, or should I say, the likely war with Iraq?
今天的节目《我们为何而战》试图了解即将到来的与伊拉克的战争，或者我应该说，可能的与伊拉克的战争？
We've arrived at Act Three of our program.
我们已经到了节目的第三幕了。
Act Three, Realism 101.
第三幕，现实主义101。
All right.
好吧。
Right now the administration is throwing around a number of arguments for the war, which I'm guessing are familiar to all of us at this point: Iraq's links to Al Qaeda, Iraq breaking a lot of UN resolutions, the ever popular, Saddam tried to kill my daddy.
现在，政府正在抛出一些关于战争的论点，我猜我们大家都熟悉这一点：伊拉克与基地组织的联系，伊拉克违反了许多联合国决议，萨达姆试图杀死我的父亲。
But at its heart, the case comes down to the idea that it is only a matter of time before Saddam Hussein gets a nuclear weapon.
但从本质上讲，此案归结为这样一个观点：萨达姆·侯赛因获得核武器只是时间问题。
And when he does, it'll be a disaster for us and for the world.
当他这样做时，对我们和世界来说将是一场灾难。
Well it turns out that the most interesting, and maybe the most compelling argument against the war in Iraq hasn't actually gotten a lot of attention in the public debate, in Congress or in the media.
事实证明，最有趣、也许也是最引人注目的反对伊拉克战争的论点实际上并没有在公众辩论、国会或媒体中引起太多关注。
And one of the things that's interesting about the argument is that it does not come from a bunch of lefty peaceniks.
这个论点有趣的一点是，它并不是来自一群左撇子和平主义者。
No, no, no, it comes from a group of foreign policy experts who look at the tough guys in the administration and think they are not tough enough.
不不不，这是一群外交政策专家，他们看着政府里的硬汉，认为他们不够强硬。
It's a school of thinking called the Realists.
这是一个被称为现实主义者的思想流派。
Back in September, a journalist named Nicholas Lemann wrote an article in The New Yorker magazine explaining the Realists, which is how we heard of them.
早在九月份，一位名叫尼古拉斯·莱曼（Nicholas Lemann）的记者在《纽约客》杂志上发表了一篇文章，解释了现实主义者，这就是我们如何听说他们的。
Within the foreign policy world, these arguments against war are totally in circulation, and they're talked about a great deal.
在外交政策界，这些反对战争的论点完全在流传，并且被谈论得很多。
In the wider world, where politicians say things to the public, the case against the war is still not really in circulation.
在更广阔的世界里，政客们向公众说话时，反对战争的理由仍然没有真正流传开来。
And it looks like it may never be.
看起来可能永远不会。
What we're going to do now is run through some of the arguments that are put forward by the Realists, which are pretty convincing.
我们现在要做的是回顾现实主义者提出的一些论点，这些论点非常有说服力。
And then, we're going to hear some of the arguments against them, which I have to say, are also pretty convincing.
然后，我们将听到一些反对他们的论点，我不得不说，这些论点也很有说服力。
And we're going to do all this because a lot of this just has not been in general circulation.
我们要做这一切，因为其中很多还没有广泛流通。
When I was doing the interviews for this story, I was constantly surprised at what I was hearing from both sides.
当我为这个故事进行采访时，我不断对从双方听到的消息感到惊讶。
And I'm guessing that might be true for you also.
我猜你也可能是这样。
OK.
好的。
So let's start.
那么让我们开始吧。
To give you a sense of just how different the Realists are from everyone else in the public debate, you can just start with this: Pretty much every politician, every commentator on television and radio, every mainstream voice out there accepts as a given that there should be a war on terror.
为了让你了解现实主义者与公共辩论中的其他人有多么不同，你可以从这个开始：几乎每个政治家、电视和广播上的每个评论员、每个主流声音都认为应该进行反恐战争。
As Nicholas Lemann points out, the war on terrorism has framed the way that we all think about these things.
正如尼古拉斯·莱曼（Nicholas Lemann）指出的那样，反恐战争塑造了我们思考这些事情的方式。
It's entered the language.
已经输入语言了。
We take it for granted.
我们认为这是理所当然的。
At this point, it just seems like the logical, inevitable response to the September 11 attacks to most everyone, except the Realists.
在这一点上，除了现实主义者之外，对于大多数人来说，这似乎是对 9 月 11 日袭击事件的合乎逻辑、不可避免的反应。
They oppose the War on Terror.
他们反对反恐战争。
I'll say that again.
我再说一遍。
They oppose the War on Terror.
他们反对反恐战争。
And they oppose it on practical grounds.
他们以实际理由反对它。
They think it's ill conceived.
他们认为这是考虑不周的。
And they think it won't work.
他们认为这行不通。
I think he should have declared a narrow war on Al Qaeda.
我认为他应该向基地组织宣战。
To declare war on terror defines a war on a whole lot of groups out there in the world, a lot of whom have never taken a swing at the United States, don't intend to take a swing at the United States.
宣战反恐就意味着对世界上许多团体发动战争，其中许多团体从未对美国发起过攻击，也不打算对美国发起攻击。
We need to keep our eye on the ball and not get distracted.
我们需要全神贯注，不要分心。
This is Stephen Van Evera, a specialist in international affairs and security issues at MIT.
我是史蒂芬·范·埃维拉 (Stephen Van Evera)，麻省理工学院国际事务和安全问题专家。
When you say you're going to war with terror that means, hey, who's your enemy out there?
当你说你要与恐怖分子作战时，这意味着，嘿，你的敌人是谁？
The FARC in Colombia, and the terrorists in China, Chechnya, you name it.
哥伦比亚的哥伦比亚革命武装力量，还有中国、车臣的恐怖分子，凡是你能想到的。
We don't need more enemies.
我们不需要更多的敌人。
We need to focus on the danger we face.
我们需要关注我们面临的危险。
Poorly.
很糟糕。
It's going poorly if you look at objective measures.
如果你看客观的衡量标准，情况会很糟糕。
Al Qaeda is still out there.
基地组织仍然存在。
They're still strong.
他们仍然很强。
They're still able to land a big punch.
他们仍然能够重拳出击。
We've only caught about 40% of their top leaders, which is a disaster 15 months into the war.
我们只抓到了大约 40% 的最高领导人，这在战争开始 15 个月后是一场灾难。
The CIA warns us that they're as capable as they were before 9/11, that the threat they pose is as large as it was before 9/11.
中央情报局警告我们，他们的能力与 9/11 之前一样，他们构成的威胁与 9/11 之前一样大。
So if you look at it objectively, we're not doing well.
所以如果你客观地看待它，我们做得并不好。
Are you worried?
你担心吗？
Are you frightened by the focus on Iraq at the expense of Al Qaeda?
您是否对以牺牲基地组织为代价而关注伊拉克感到害怕？
Yes, I am.
我是。
I am unsold on this war in Iraq.
我对这场伊拉克战争不感兴趣。
I think Saddam's a horrible fellow, and a nasty guy, and a threat, but Al Qaeda poses a much more serious threat.
我认为萨达姆是一个可怕的家伙，一个令人讨厌的家伙，一个威胁，但基地组织构成了更严重的威胁。
When it comes to Iraq, the Realists not only point out all the practical problems with the war-- that it might lead to huge problems in Pakistan, which has nuclear weapons that could end up in the wrong hands, that we could bungle the occupation after we win.
当谈到伊拉克时，现实主义者不仅指出了战争的所有实际问题——它可能会给巴基斯坦带来巨大的问题，巴基斯坦拥有核武器，最终可能会落入坏人之手，我们可能会在胜利后搞砸占领。
What they see in Afghanistan, they do not find encouraging.
他们在阿富汗看到的情况并不令人鼓舞。
But beyond that, they question the central reason for the war.
但除此之外，他们还质疑战争的核心原因。
And again, they do it on grounds that have not gotten a lot of attention publicly.
再说一遍，他们这样做的理由并没有引起公众的广泛关注。
The administration's central argument, as you know, is that we have to stop Saddam Hussein before he gets nuclear weapons.
如你所知，政府的核心论点是我们必须在萨达姆·侯赛因获得核武器之前阻止他。
The Realists say, if he gets nuclear weapons, so what?
现实主义者说，如果他得到核武器，那又怎样？
So what?
所以呢？
I believe that Iraq, even if it had weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, would not be able to do very much with those weapons.
我认为，伊拉克即使拥有包括核武器在内的大规模杀伤性武器，也无法利用这些武器做太多事情。
That's Steven Walt from Harvard, another Realist.
那是哈佛大学的史蒂文·沃尔特（Steven Walt），另一位现实主义者。
And the reason it can't is because it cannot threaten to use them without facing retaliation from the United States or from others.
它之所以不能，是因为它不能威胁使用它们而不面临美国或其他国家的报复。
There's good historical evidence suggesting that Saddam Hussein, like other dictators before him, can easily be contained and deterred.
有充分的历史证据表明，萨达姆·侯赛因和他之前的其他独裁者一样，很容易被遏制和威慑。
If you look at the historical record, this is a government that has only used force when they were vulnerable, when they were feeling threatened, and, most importantly, when they felt their opponents were isolated.
如果你看看历史记录，这个政府只会在他们脆弱的时候，当他们感到受到威胁时，最重要的是，当他们感到对手被孤立时才使用武力。
So if you go back to the Iran-Iraq war, this is a case where the Iranians were the aggressors, were actively trying to overthrow the Iraqi regime, and yet were also isolated and appeared to be vulnerable.
所以，如果你回到两伊战争，伊朗人是侵略者，积极试图推翻伊拉克政权，但同时又被孤立，显得脆弱。
So he fought.
于是他就战斗了。
Similarly, the Gulf War, the invasion of Kuwait, they had serious financial problems.
同样，海湾战争、入侵科威特，他们都遇到了严重的财政问题。
The Kuwaitis were playing various games with oil quotas that were helping keep Iraq weak and vulnerable.
科威特人正在利用石油配额玩弄各种游戏，这有助于使伊拉克变得虚弱和脆弱。
And most importantly, we gave them, I think, an inadvertent green light, the famous April Glaspie interview where she says, we, the United States, have no interest in inter-Arab disputes, such as the border dispute between Kuwait and Iraq.
最重要的是，我认为，我们无意中为他们开了绿灯，著名的四月·格拉斯皮采访中她说，我们美国对阿拉伯国家之间的争端没有兴趣，例如科威特和伊拉克之间的边界争端。
She was a US ambassador in the region that--
她是美国驻该地区的大使——
That's correct.
这是正确的。
She was the US Ambassador in Baghdad.
她曾任美国驻巴格达大使。
And I don't think we intended to signal him that we weren't interested in Kuwaiti security.
我不认为我们打算向他表明我们对科威特安全不感兴趣。
But that is, in effect, what we did.
但这实际上就是我们所做的。
The lesson of the Gulf War is not that he can't be deterred.
海湾战争的教训并不是他无法被吓倒。
It's that we didn't even try to deter him.
我们甚至没有试图阻止他。
OK.
好的。
Let's just stop that tape right there.
让我们把那盘磁带停在那里吧。
As you've probably noticed, this is a very different Saddam Hussein than we're used to hearing about.
您可能已经注意到，这与我们习惯听到的萨达姆·侯赛因截然不同。
He's not a madman.
他不是疯子。
He's not hell-bent on territorial expansion and bullying other countries around.
他并没有一心要扩张领土，欺凌周边国家。
He's rational-- rational enough to heed warnings from others.
他是理性的——理性到足以听取别人的警告。
And Stephen Walt knows that all of this sounds just a little bit funny to basically any civilian like you and me that he ever talks to about this.
斯蒂芬·沃尔特（Stephen Walt）知道，对于像你我这样与他谈论过此事的任何平民来说，所有这些听起来都有点有趣。
I don't mean to be an apologist for Saddam Hussein at all.
我根本无意为萨达姆侯赛因辩护。
He is in fact a brutal despot.
他实际上是一个残暴的暴君。
But if you look at his foreign policy conduct, like many despots in the past, such as Joseph Stalin or Mao Zedong, he's actually quite concerned with his own personal survival and quite concerned with the survival and security of his regime.
但如果你看看他的外交政策行为，就像过去的许多暴君，比如斯大林或毛泽东一样，他实际上非常关心自己的个人生存，也非常关心他的政权的生存和安全。
That has made him actually relatively prudent in using force.
这使得他在使用武力方面实际上相对谨慎。
The other point to note is, this is a man who's never used weapons of mass destruction against anyone who could retaliate.
另一点值得注意的是，这个人从未对任何可能报复的人使用大规模杀伤性武器。
He used them against the Iranians who had no such weapons themselves.
他用它们来对付那些本身没有此类武器的伊朗人。
And he used them against the Kurdish population in Iraq, also a group that couldn't retaliate.
他还用它们来对付伊拉克的库尔德人，而这个群体也无法进行报复。
He's never tried to use weapons of mass destruction against us, against the Israelis, against the Saudis.
他从未试图对我们、以色列、沙特使用大规模杀伤性武器。
I saw in something you wrote that you quoted some of his generals, who said the reason why chemical and biological weapons weren't used during the Persian Gulf War was precisely because he had been warned, and he didn't want to allow for retaliation.
我在你写的文章中看到，你引用了他的一些将领的话，他们说海湾战争中之所以没有使用生化武器，正是因为他受到了警告，他不想允许报复。
That's correct.
这是正确的。
We sent a very explicit message, I believe in a letter from Secretary of State James Baker, communicated through the Iraqi Foreign Minister, that if they were to use weapons of mass destruction against us, we would not limit ourselves to retaliation in kind.
我们发出了一个非常明确的信息，我相信国务卿詹姆斯·贝克通过伊拉克外交部长传达的一封信，即如果他们对我们使用大规模杀伤性武器，我们不会仅限于以实物报复。
I forget the exact wording.
我忘记了具体的措辞。
But it was an unmistakable threat, which the Iraqis seem to have heeded.
但这是一个明显的威胁，伊拉克人似乎已经注意到了这一威胁。
And some Iraqi officials have said our warning was part of the reason why they didn't use it.
一些伊拉克官员表示，我们的警告是他们没有使用这一警告的部分原因。
All right.
好的。
You still with me here?
你还和我在这里吗？
Now, remember, I said that we were going to get to the arguments against the Realists.
现在，请记住，我说过我们将开始反对现实主义者的论点。
And we looked for the most convincing spokesman for the other side.
我们还为对方寻找最有说服力的发言人。
And we were lucky enough to get our very first pick, Kenneth Pollack, who was a Persian Gulf military analyst for seven years at the CIA, including during the Persian Gulf War, and after that, for the National Security Council under President Clinton.
我们很幸运地得到了我们的第一人选，肯尼思·波拉克，他在中央情报局担任波斯湾军事分析师七年，包括在波斯湾战争期间，之后在克林顿总统领导下的国家安全委员会任职。
He's now at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.
他现在在布鲁金斯学会萨班中东政策中心工作。
He's written a book called The Threatening Storm: the Case for Invading Iraq .
他写了一本名为《威胁风暴：入侵伊拉克的案例》的书。
And when I recited to him the Realist case, chapter and verse, that Saddam Hussein could be deterred from using a nuclear weapon, he nearly sputtered.
当我向他背诵现实主义案例，章节和诗句，萨达姆·侯赛因可以被阻止使用核武器时，他几乎结巴了。
He honestly did not know where to begin.
老实说，他不知道从哪里开始。
Boy, we're going to be here a while.
伙计，我们要在这里待一会儿。
The arguments that they're mustering are based on simply incorrect information.
他们收集的论据完全基于不正确的信息。
Their understanding of Saddam Hussein's decision making is just deeply flawed.
他们对萨达姆侯赛因决策的理解存在严重缺陷。
We know a huge amount about Saddam's decision making in some of these cases.
我们对萨达姆在其中一些案件中的决策了解很多。
And it simply doesn't square with their arguments-- for example, the invasion of Kuwait.
这根本不符合他们的论点——例如入侵科威特。
Good idea.
好主意。
Let's start with the invasion of Kuwait.
让我们从入侵科威特开始。
Pollack disputes even the basic facts that the Realists offer on this.
波拉克甚至对现实主义者就此提出的基本事实提出异议。
He says that we know now that Saddam had decided to invade before the American Ambassador indicated to him, inadvertently, that we wouldn't fight back.
他说，我们现在知道，在美国大使无意中向他表示我们不会反击之前，萨达姆已经决定入侵。
He says that we know now that Saddam did not attack Kuwait as some kind of modest, rational act of aggression, but as the first step in a larger plan of his to becoming a kind of superpower.
他说，我们现在知道，萨达姆袭击科威特并不是某种温和、理性的侵略行为，而是他成为超级大国的更大计划的第一步。
Even before the invasion of Kuwait, Saddam was already saying, the demise of the Soviet Union leaves the world badly unbalanced.
甚至在入侵科威特之前，萨达姆就已经说过，苏联的灭亡使世界严重失衡。
Iraq has to become a new superpower to be able to stand up to the United States.
伊拉克必须成为一个新的超级大国才能与美国抗衡。
Seizing Kuwait, as best we understand it, was part of that plan.
据我们所知，占领科威特是该计划的一部分。
And we know this through his speeches, through--
我们通过他的演讲知道这一点，通过——
Through his speeches, through Iraqis who've come out of Iraq, through even sources inside of Iraq who've all reported on this.
通过他的演讲，通过来自伊拉克的伊拉克人，甚至通过伊拉克境内的消息来源，他们都对此进行了报道。
In your view, did deterrents work when the United States warned him against using chemical or biological weapons during the Persian Gulf War, and then it turned out that he didn't?
您认为，海湾战争期间，美国警告他不要使用生化武器，但事实证明他没有，威慑措施是否有效？
We really don't know.
我们真的不知道。
And it's important to remember that James Baker, the Secretary of State, went to Saddam with three deterrent threats, which were, don't use weapons of mass destruction, don't conduct terrorist attacks, and don't light the Kuwaiti oil fields on fire.
重要的是要记住，国务卿詹姆斯·贝克向萨达姆发出了三项威慑威胁，即不要使用大规模杀伤性武器，不要进行恐怖袭击，不要点燃科威特油田。
And if you do, we will do bad things to you.
如果你这样做，我们就会对你做坏事。
And it was unspecified consequences, very severe consequences.
这是未明确的后果，非常严重的后果。
And it was the same statement for all three of those threats.
对于所有这三个威胁都是同样的声明。
Well, Saddam did light the Kuwaiti oil fields on fire.
好吧，萨达姆确实点燃了科威特油田。
And he did engage in terrorist attacks and tried to attack the United States homeland.
而他也确实参与了恐怖袭击，并试图袭击美国本土。
Wait.
等待。
What are the terrorist attacks you're talking about?
你说的恐怖袭击是什么？
In 1991, during the Gulf War, Saddam launched a wave of terrorist attacks against the United States.
1991年，海湾战争期间，萨达姆对美国发动恐怖袭击浪潮。
They all failed.
他们都失败了。
Now, we checked into this story, and it does seem to be true.
现在，我们调查了这个故事，这似乎确实是真的。
There's a CIA counterterrorism guy out there who has written about it.
有一位中央情报局反恐人员写过有关此事的文章。
Saddam did not heed our deterrent threats.
萨达姆没有理会我们的威慑威胁。
He did launch attacks against the US during that war, which is exactly the point, Pollack says.
波拉克说，他在那场战争期间确实对美国发动了攻击，这正是重点。
Saddam will not be deterred.
萨达姆不会被吓倒。
Now, beyond that, one of the things that we learned after the Gulf War-- and, I think, was a very frightening thing for myself and many of my colleagues in the government to find out-- was that Saddam apparently concluded after the Gulf War that his biggest mistake during the Gulf War was not that he should never have invaded Kuwait, but that he should have waited to invade Kuwait, that he should have waited until he had a nuclear weapon.
现在，除此之外，我们在海湾战争后学到的一件事——我认为，这对我自己和政府中的许多同事来说是一件非常可怕的事情——萨达姆在海湾战争后显然得出结论，他在海湾战争期间最大的错误不是他不应该入侵科威特，而是他应该等待入侵科威特，他应该等到他拥有核武器。
Because, he apparently believes, if he has a nuclear weapon, it is the United States that will be deterred, not him.
因为，他显然相信，如果他拥有核武器，受到威慑的将是美国，而不是他。
Now, how do we know this?
现在，我们怎么知道这一点？
How do we know he thinks this?
我们怎么知道他是这么想的？
We know it from a variety of different sources, including Iraqis who are close to Saddam, and also through a variety of technical means.
我们从各种不同的来源（包括与萨达姆关系密切的伊拉克人）以及通过各种技术手段了解到这一点。
Technical means, means listening in, spying in various ways?
技术手段，就是通过各种方式监听、刺探？
Exactly.
确切地。
Ira Glass I'm guessing this must be how it goes when you talk to any former CIA guy.
艾拉·格拉斯（Ira Glass）：我猜当你与任何前中央情报局人员交谈时，情况一定是这样的。
He tells you incredible things that explain so much about what your government is thinking and where policies come from, and then, as soon as you ask for details or evidence, he can't tell you.
他告诉你一些令人难以置信的事情，这些事情解释了你的政府的想法和政策的来源，然后，一旦你要求细节或证据，他就无法告诉你。
They're secret.
他们是秘密的。
Kenneth Pollack was able to explain, though, why so many US policymakers fear Saddam could not be deterred from using a nuclear bomb, if he ever got one, in a way that made it very, very clear.
不过，肯尼思·波拉克能够以一种非常非常清楚的方式解释，为什么如此多的美国政策制定者担心萨达姆无法阻止他使用核弹（如果他真的拥有核弹的话）。
He says, imagine Saddam Hussein decided to threaten the country of Jordan.
他说，想象一下萨达姆·侯赛因决定威胁约旦国家。
And what Saddam could conceivably threaten to do is, if you come and try to stop me from moving into Jordan, I will use nuclear weapons on regional targets.
萨达姆可能会威胁说，如果你来阻止我进入约旦，我将对地区目标使用核武器。
Israel, if you come after me, I will use them on Dimona.
以色列，如果你来追我，我就会用它们对付迪莫纳。
United States, if you come after me, I will use them against the Saudi oil fields.
美国，如果你来追我，我就用它们来对付沙特油田。
And then, the question becomes for the United States, do we want to dare Saddam?
那么，问题就变成了美国，我们想挑战萨达姆吗？
And why isn't Saddam in the same position, though, that the Soviet Union would be?
但为什么萨达姆没有处于与苏联相同的境地呢？
If he were to use his nuclear weapon, he knows the United States would just come in and blow him up?
如果他使用核武器，他知道美国会进来炸死他吗？
Well, again, this is the problem with Saddam's thinking.
那么，这又是萨达姆思想的问题。
As best we understand it, he is not making the same calculation that the Soviets did.
据我们所知，他并没有做出与苏联人相同的计算。
And just so I understand the logic that would be behind what Saddam is thinking, his thinking is the United States would be faced with this choice: Are we going to drop a bomb on Baghdad and kill hundreds of thousands of people?
我明白萨达姆的想法背后的逻辑，他的想法是美国将面临这样的选择：我们要向巴格达投下炸弹并杀死数十万人吗？
And the United States, when faced with that choice, would blink.
而美国在面临这样的选择时，会眨眼。
We wouldn't want to do that?
我们不想这样做吗？
Correct.
正确的。
Again, that is our understanding of Saddam's thinking.
这也是我们对萨达姆思想的理解。
I have to say, in a way, I feel like I understand that.
我不得不说，在某种程度上，我觉得我理解这一点。
It is hard to imagine the United States dropping a nuclear bomb on a city right now.
很难想象美国现在向一座城市投下一颗核弹。
Imagine a scenario where Saddam is basically saying, if you stop me from going into Jordan, or Kuwait, or wherever the country may be, I'm going to blow up the Saudi oil fields.
想象一下这样一个场景，萨达姆基本上是在说，如果你阻止我进入约旦、科威特或任何国家，我就会炸毁沙特油田。
And your only response is to nuke the city of Baghdad, with 5 million innocent people.
而你唯一的反应就是用核武器攻击拥有 500 万无辜人民的巴格达市。
Let me put it this way.
让我这样说吧。
As a former US policymaker, that is not the kind of choice that I ever want to be in.
作为一名前美国政策制定者，这不是我想要的选择。
So where are you and I supposed come down on this?
那么你和我应该从哪里来看待这个问题呢？
What should we believe?
我们应该相信什么？
Could Saddam Hussein be deterred from using a nuclear weapon or not?
萨达姆·侯赛因能否被阻止使用核武器？
Or maybe that's not even the right question in the end.
或者也许这根本就不是正确的问题。
You know, it's not really about keeping Saddam from getting nuclear capacity.
你知道，这并不是为了阻止萨达姆获得核能力。
That's not the central reason for doing this, I think.
我认为这不是这样做的核心原因。
Or it's a reason, but not the only reason.
或者说这是一个原因，但不是唯一的原因。
Again, Nicholas Lemann, from The New Yorker.
又是《纽约客》的尼古拉斯·莱曼。
I think there's a sense in the conservative world that the nuclear threat is the argument most likely to sell with the public, but isn't the only reason to do this.
我认为保守世界有一种感觉，即核威胁是最有可能被公众接受的论点，但并不是这样做的唯一理由。
The other reasons to do this, Lemann says, are right there if you talk to the Hawks, or if you read what they wrote before they took office.
莱曼说，如果你与老鹰队交谈，或者如果你读过他们上任之前写的东西，那么这样做的其他原因就在那里。
First, it's doable.
首先，这是可行的。
We're going after Saddam Hussein not because he's so strong, but, in essence, because he's so weak.
我们追捕萨达姆·侯赛因，不是因为他太强大，而是因为他太软弱。
The Hawks see him as easy to defeat, compared with say, North Korea.
老鹰队认为，与朝鲜相比，他很容易被击败。
And they believe that they can change the political climate in the Middle East through a show of force.
他们相信他们可以通过展示武力来改变中东的政治气候。
People in the administration are fond of quoting Bernard Lewis, the eminent historian, who has been down and briefed people at the White House and so on.
政府里的人喜欢引用著名历史学家伯纳德·刘易斯的话，他曾在白宫向人们作过简报等。
And they will quote him saying, Arab culture, in particular, respects strength and shows of force.
他们会引用他的话说，阿拉伯文化尤其尊重力量和武力展示。
It's a warrior culture.
这是一种武士文化。
So if you invade a country like Iraq and win, rather than that inflaming the Middle East, it will quiet the Middle East, because people will respect you more.
因此，如果你入侵伊拉克这样的国家并取得胜利，而不是让中东火上浇油，反而会让中东平静下来，因为人们会更尊重你。
This, in a way, was the most surprising scenario I heard from anyone, Lemann's summary of how the Hawks imagine all of this could work in the end.
在某种程度上，这是我从任何人那里听到的最令人惊讶的场景，莱曼对老鹰队想象的所有这一切最终如何发挥作用的总结。
Well, I think this is the scenario.
嗯，我想这就是场景。
First thing that happens is, we would set up some kind of permanent or semi-permanent military base or presence in Iraq.
首先发生的事情是，我们将在伊拉克建立某种永久性或半永久性军事基地或存在。
We could get rid of the Prince Sultan Air Force Base in Saudi Arabia and make Iraq the United States' military base of operations.
我们可以摆脱沙特阿拉伯的苏丹亲王空军基地，让伊拉克成为美国的军事行动基地。
It's a nice central location in the Middle East.
这是中东一个不错的中心位置。
Second of all, having a friendly government there and having a steady supply of oil from the Iraqi oil fields would make us much less dependent on Saudi oil.
其次，那里有一个友好的政府，并且伊拉克油田有稳定的石油供应，将使我们对沙特石油的依赖大大减少。
And that's a good thing, because then you get more leverage with the Saudis.
这是一件好事，因为这样你就可以对沙特施加更多影响力。
So here's some of the ways it would play out, according to the Hawks.
根据老鹰队的说法，以下是一些具体的实施方式。
First of all, the government of Iran would fall to some of these kind of student protest groups or other reform groups.
首先，伊朗政府将落入此类学生抗议团体或其他改革团体的手中。
Because the student groups would see, oh, look, there's been change in Iraq.
因为学生团体会看到，哦，看，伊拉克发生了变化。
We want a more secular society, more modern society.
我们想要一个更世俗的社会，更现代的社会。
Yes.
是的。
And they'd be getting heavy encouragement and funding from the United States.
他们会得到美国的大力鼓励和资助。
Syria is another country where the Hawks very clearly want to see the government fall, and believe that it may well fall in the wake of a successful US invasion of Iraq.
叙利亚是鹰派非常明确希望看到政府垮台的另一个国家，并相信在美国成功入侵伊拉克后，叙利亚政府很可能垮台。
Then, I think, what they'd like to have happen is the two really big countries in the Middle East that are our friends, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, we could go to them and have very serious and soulful conversations with the governments, in which we say, we want a little better behavior out of you guys.
然后，我认为，他们希望发生的是中东两个真正的大国，我们的朋友，沙特阿拉伯和埃及，我们可以去他们那里，与政府进行非常严肃和深情的对话，我们在对话中说，我们希望你们表现得更好一点。
We want you to really crack down on the Islamists.
我们希望你们真正打击伊斯兰主义者。
We don't want any more movies of protocols of the Elders of Zion on Egyptian television.
我们不想再在埃及电视上播放有关锡安长老会礼仪的电影。
We want you to move toward allowing opposition parties, including secular parties.
我们希望你们能够允许反对党，包括世俗政党。
Just kind of put the lid on the tide of Islamist extremism in your country.
只是遏制你们国家的伊斯兰极端主义浪潮而已。
And if you don't, expect there to be negative consequences that will be short of military invasion, but painful to you from us, the United States.
如果你不这样做，预计我们美国会带来负面后果，虽然不是军事入侵，但会给你带来痛苦。
I feel like everything you're saying, at some point or another during the last six months, I've read in a kind of shorthand.
我觉得你所说的一切，在过去六个月的某个时刻，我都以某种速记方式读到了。
And I feel like this is the first time I'm hearing somebody lay the whole thing out: This is why we're going to war.
我觉得这是我第一次听到有人把整个事情说出来：这就是我们要开战的原因。
I think this is why we're going to war, yes.
我认为这就是我们要发动战争的原因，是的。
I do think so.
我确实这么认为。
I mean, I think we are going to war.
我的意思是，我认为我们即将爆发战争。
And I don't think it's not about weapons of mass destruction and the idea that Saddam might acquire nuclear weapons.
我不认为这与大规模杀伤性武器和萨达姆可能获得核武器的想法无关。
And I don't think it's irrelevant that he's a brutal, totalitarian dictator who has murdered his own people.
我认为他是一个残暴的极权独裁者，谋杀了自己的人民，这并不是无关紧要的。
But I really think the primary goal here is to try to use this as an opening into a remaking of the Middle East.
但我确实认为这里的主要目标是尝试以此为重塑中东的契机。
Nicholas Lemann.
尼古拉斯·莱曼.
You can read his article about all this called, "The War on What?" online at The New Yorker magazine website.
你可以阅读他关于这一切的文章，名为“战争针对什么？”在线访问《纽约客》杂志网站。
[MUSIC-"READY TO DIE" BY ANDREW W.K.]
[音乐-安德鲁·W.K.的《准备去死》]
Act Five, Who Cares?
第五幕，谁在乎？
Well, it's been a heady hour of radio.
嗯，这是一个令人兴奋的广播时间。
And we have to admit, it's Christmas.
我们必须承认，这是圣诞节。
While we all may have nagging fears about the War against terror, or the war against Iraq, or the war against whatever, we all have a lot of other things on our minds.
虽然我们所有人都可能对反恐战争、伊拉克战争或其他任何战争都怀有挥之不去的恐惧，但我们心里都有很多其他的事情。
And if you have any doubt about that at all, all you have to do is look at this new website started by this guy named Gabe Hudson.
如果您对此有任何疑问，您所要做的就是查看这个由加布·哈德森 (Gabe Hudson) 创办的新网站。
He was a rifleman in the Marine Reserves in 1992, just as the Gulf War was ending.
1992 年，海湾战争即将结束时，他是海军陆战队预备役的一名步枪手。
And he wrote this book of short stories called Dear Mr. President .
他写了这本短篇小说集《亲爱的总统先生》。
And partly as a crude promotion, and partly as an idealistic public-minded venture, he started a website where he invited everyday Americans to post their own letters to the President.
部分是出于粗俗的促销，部分是出于理想主义的公共事业，他创建了一个网站，邀请普通美国人发表自己给总统的信件。
Well, one of the letters was posted there by a teacher in North Carolina and her class.
嗯，其中一封信是北卡罗来纳州的一位老师和她的班级寄在那里的。
Out of 19 kids, note that only five had anything to say about the War on Terror.
请注意，在 19 个孩子中，只有 5 个对反恐战争有话要说。
"Dear Mr. President, Hello there.
“尊敬的总统先生，您好。
I live in a small town in North Carolina.
我住在北卡罗来纳州的一个小镇。
Well, that's not exactly right.
嗯，这并不完全正确。
I live outside a small town, what may be termed rural.
我住在一个小镇外，可以说是农村。
I live deep down a dirt road in a wooden house beside a creek that's cut into orange clay.
我住在一条土路深处的一栋木屋里，旁边有一条小溪，小溪被切成橙色的粘土。
This is where I grew up.
这是我长大的地方。
It's nice here.
这里真好。
I teach English here, eighth grade.
我在这里教八年级英语。
Most eighth graders have a lot of opinions.
大多数八年级学生都有很多意见。
Some of them don't.
有些人则不然。
I asked them all to write down something that they would like to say to you.
我让他们都写下他们想对你说的话。
And I thought you might be interested in hearing their responses.
我想你可能有兴趣听听他们的回应。
I'm very glad that we have a good Christian man as our president.
我很高兴我们有一位优秀的基督徒担任我们的总统。
Whitney Moore, who is the shortest person in her class.
惠特尼摩尔，她是班上最矮的人。
You need to get out of the office and really need to be replaced.
你需要离开办公室，确实需要更换。
Mr. Bush, I would rather you use another country to handle your wars and light work, because I want Osama to feel like he's going up against a gang, and not just one person.
布什先生，我宁愿你使用另一个国家来处理你的战争和轻松的工作，因为我希望奥萨马感觉他正在对抗一个帮派，而不仅仅是一个人。
Will Castillo, who will be a famous writer one day.
威尔·卡斯蒂略（Will Castillo）有一天会成为一位著名作家。
Jonathan King, who makes odd noises in class.
乔纳森·金，在课堂上发出奇怪的声音。
Do you think we'll ever find bin Laden?
你认为我们能找到本拉登吗？
And when we do, will things go back to normal?
当我们这样做时，事情会恢复正常吗？
Melissa Jackson, cheerleader.
梅丽莎·杰克逊，啦啦队长。
Nikki Norman I want to know, why is the writing test so important to North Carolina schools?
Nikki Norman 我想知道，为什么写作测试对北卡罗来纳州的学校如此重要？
And why should it determine if we fail or pass a grade, or if we have met the standards of the writing test?
为什么它应该决定我们是否通过成绩，或者我们是否达到写作测试的标准？
And why is it the end-of-grade test is so important?
为什么期末考试如此重要？
Nikki Norman, who resembles Alicia Keys.
妮基·诺曼（Nikki Norman），与艾丽西亚·凯斯（Alicia Keys）相似。
Why would you be president, knowing that many people don't like you?
明知道很多人不喜欢你，你为什么还要当总统？
The war didn't happen until you became President of the United States of America.
直到您成为美利坚合众国总统后，战争才发生。
What would you do to make the world a better place?
你会做什么让世界变得更美好？
Leticia Antonio, who has impeccable handwriting.
莱蒂西亚·安东尼奥，字迹无可挑剔。
Bush, I think you're doing an excellent job considering the terrorist attacks and the sniper attacks, and even the fights between Elizabeth Dole and Erskine Bowles.
布什，考虑到恐怖袭击和狙击手袭击，甚至伊丽莎白·多尔和厄斯金·鲍尔斯之间的战斗，我认为你做得非常出色。
Natalie Calcutt, who hangs out on the back hall.
娜塔莉·卡尔卡特（Natalie Calcutt）在后厅闲逛。
How many four-wheelers, et cetera, do you have?
您有多少辆四轮车等？
And how many food restaurants do you have in your house?
你家里有多少家餐馆？
Did you ever think when you were little that one day you would be president?
你小时候有没有想过有一天你会成为总统？
Madelyn Wooten, who also hangs out on the back hall.
玛德琳·伍滕 (Madelyn Wooten) 也在后厅闲逛。
I think they should have more church camps.
我认为他们应该有更多的教堂营地。
I love going to them.
我喜欢去他们那里。
My name Michelle Blue.
我叫米歇尔·布鲁。
And I am wondering, what are you going to do about the elderly people without Social Security, and they're not able to work, and they've got to be the age of 65 to be able to stop working?
我想知道，对于那些没有社会保障、无法工作、而且必须年满 65 岁才能停止工作的老年人，你会怎么办？
Michelle Blue, who speaks in one long sentence as well.
米歇尔·布鲁也说了一句很长的话。
I like cats.
我喜欢猫。
Britt Honeycutt Courtney Barefoot, who also likes boys.
Britt Honeycutt Courtney Barefoot，也喜欢男孩。
Try to stop the war so we wouldn't have to worry about it anymore.
努力阻止战争，这样我们就不用再担心了。
Jose Jose, real name.
何塞·何塞，真名。
April Tew Why do terrorists want to kill you so much?
April Tew 为什么恐怖分子这么想杀你？
April Tew, who flirts.
艾普丽尔·图 (April Tew)，调情的人。
Leslie Strickland I'm 13 years old and in the eighth grade.
Leslie Strickland 我今年 13 岁，上八年级。
I go to Midway Middle.
我去中途岛。
I like to talk on the phone to boys and play soccer.
我喜欢和男孩们打电话和踢足球。
My favorite subject is math, but my favorite teacher is my language arts teacher, Miss Honeycutt.
我最喜欢的科目是数学，但我最喜欢的老师是我的语言艺术老师 Honeycutt 小姐。
My birthday is November 12.
我的生日是11月12日。
And I will be 15.
我就15岁了。
So if you are a president, you will get me something.
所以如果你是总统，你会给我一些东西。
James Brady, who raps.
詹姆斯·布雷迪，饶舌歌手。
Teresa Goodman I just want to say that you need to take your job more seriously.
特蕾莎·古德曼（Teresa Goodman）我只是想说，你需要更认真地对待你的工作。
Teresa Goodman, who can do a mean Harlem Shake.
特蕾莎·古德曼 (Teresa Goodman) 可以演绎哈莱姆摇摆 (Harlem Shake) 风格。
These are my kids.
这些是我的孩子。
They just wanted you to know that they are here.
他们只是想让你知道他们在这里。
Sincerely, Britt Honeycutt."
此致，布里特·霍尼卡特。”
If you want to write to the President as part of this project, go to gabehudson.com.
如果您想写信给总统作为该项目的一部分，请访问 gabehudson.com。
Otherwise, you know, there's always that 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue address you can use.
否则，您知道，总有 1600 宾夕法尼亚大道 地址可供您使用。
I mean, I find it very confusing myself.
我的意思是，我自己也觉得很困惑。
I think there are a few-- George Bush-- it's very hard to fight.
我认为有一些人——乔治·布什——很难与之抗争。
I'm Ira Glass, back next week with more stories of This American Life.
我是艾拉·格拉斯，下周回来，带来更多《美国生活》的故事。
This American Life is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX The Public Radio Exchange.
《This American Life》与 WBEZ Chicago 合作制作，并由 PRX 公共广播电台传送到各电台。