On the Next Web (Innovation)
When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier.
当你考虑弹性和技术时，这实际上要容易得多。
You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know,
我已经知道，今天你还会看到其他一些发言者，
who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff,
谁要谈论骨折的事情，
and, of course, with technology it never is.
当然，对于技术而言，情况永远不会如此。
So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient.
因此，相对而言，保持韧性是很容易的。
I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet,
我认为，如果我们看看互联网上发生的事情，
with such an incredible last half a dozen years,
过去六年的经历令人难以置信，
that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it.
甚至很难找到正确的类比。
A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things
很多我们如何决定，我们应该如何对事情做出反应
and what we're supposed to expect about the future
以及我们对未来的期望
depends on how we bucket things
取决于我们如何存储事物
and how we categorize them.
以及我们如何对它们进行分类。
And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust
所以我认为繁荣与萧条的诱人比喻
that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush.
我们刚刚经历的互联网就是淘金热。
It's easy to think of this analogy as very different
人们很容易认为这个类比非常不同
from some of the other things you might pick.
从你可能会选择的其他一些东西中。
For one thing, both were very real.
一方面，两者都非常真实。
In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million
1849 年，在那场淘金热中，他们拿走了 7 亿美元
worth of gold out of California.
来自加利福尼亚州的黄金价值。
It was very real.
这是非常真实的。
The Internet was also very real.
互联网也非常真实。
This is a real way for humans to
这是人类真正的方法
communicate with each other.
互相沟通。
It's a big deal.
这是一件大事。
Huge boom.
巨大的繁荣。
Huge boom.
巨大的繁荣。
Huge bust.
巨大的胸围。
Huge bust.
巨大的胸围。
You keep going, and both things are lots of hype.
你继续前进，这两件事都会被大肆宣传。
I don't have to remind you of all the hype
我不必提醒你所有的炒作
that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.
与互联网有关——比如 GetRich.com。
But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush.
但淘金热也有同样的情况。
"Gold.
“金子。
Gold.
黄金。
Gold."
金子。”
Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland.
波特兰轮船上有六十八位富翁。
Stacks of yellow metal.
成堆的黄色金属。
Some have 5,000.
有些有5,000。
Many have more.
许多人还有更多。
A few bring out 100,000 dollars each.
有几个人每人拿出10万美元。
People would get very excited about this when they read these articles.
当人们阅读这些文章时，会对此感到非常兴奋。
"The Eldorado of the United States of America:
“美利坚合众国的黄金国：
the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California."
在加利福尼亚州发现了取之不尽用之不竭的金矿。”
And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly.
淘金热和互联网热之间的相似之处仍然非常明显。
So many people left what they were doing.
很多人离开了他们正在做的事情。
And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.
将会发生的是——淘金热持续了多年。
People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news,
1849年，当东海岸的人们第一次得知这个消息时，
they thought, "Ah, this isn't real."
他们想：“啊，这不是真的。”
But they keep hearing about people getting rich,
但他们不断听说人们变得富有，
and then in 1850 they still hear that.
到了 1850 年，他们仍然听到这样的说法。
And they think it's not real.
他们认为这不是真的。
By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth
大约 1852 年，他们开始思考：“我是地球上最愚蠢的人吗？
by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are.
不赶去加州吗？”他们开始决定他们是。
These are community affairs, by the way.
顺便说一句，这些都是社区事务。
Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams
东海岸的当地社区和整个团队将聚集在一起
of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States,
10、20人将组成车队穿越美国，
and they would form companies.
他们会组建公司。
These were typically not solitary efforts.
这些通常不是单独的努力。
But no matter what,
但无论如何，
if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing,
如果你是律师或银行家，人们就会放弃他们正在做的事情，
no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.
无论他们拥有什么技能，都要去淘金。
This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole,
左边这个人，理查德·贝弗利·科尔博士，
he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route.
他住在费城，走的是巴拿马航线。
They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus,
他们会乘船穿越地峡前往巴拿马，
and then take another ship north.
然后乘另一艘船向北。
This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California.
这个人，托兰德博士，乘坐有盖马车前往加利福尼亚州。
This has its parallels, too.
这也有其相似之处。
Doctors leaving their practices.
医生离开他们的诊所。
These are both very successful -- a physician in one case,
这些都是非常成功的——其中一个案例是一位医生，
a surgeon in the other.
另一个是外科医生。
Same thing happened on the Internet.
同样的事情也发生在互联网上。
You get DrKoop.com.
您可以访问 DrKoop.com。
In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship.
在淘金热中，人们实际上是跳船了。
The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak
旧金山港高峰时被600艘船堵塞
because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon
因为船只会到达那里而船员会放弃
to go search for gold.
去寻找黄金。
So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships.
所以实际上有 600 名船长和 600 艘船。
They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere.
他们把船变成了旅馆，因为他们无法将它们航行到任何地方。
You had dotcom fever.
你得了网络热潮。
And you had gold fever.
而且你有淘金热。
And you saw some of the excesses
你也看到了一些过分的行为
that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened.
互联网热潮造成了这一点，同样的事情也发生了。
The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers.
当时旧金山的堡垒约有 1,300 名士兵。
Half of them deserted to go look for gold.
其中一半人离开去寻找黄金。
And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half
他们也不会让另一半出去寻找上半身
because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.
因为他们害怕他们不会回来。
And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put:
其中一名士兵写信回家，他写道：
"The struggle between right and six dollars a month
“权利与每月六美元之间的斗争
and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one."
这是错误的，每天 75 美元是相当严重的。”
They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush.
他们在淘金热时期的烧钱率很差。
A very bad burn rate.
燃烧率非常差。
This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush.
这实际上来自克朗代克淘金热。
This is the White Pass Trail.
这就是白色通道步道。
They loaded up their mules and their horses.
他们驮着骡子和马。
And they didn't plan right.
而且他们的计划不正确。
And they didn't know how far they would really have to go,
他们不知道自己到底要走多远，
and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff.
他们让马超载了成百上千磅的东西。
In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died
事实上，情况太糟糕了，大多数马都死了
before they could get where they were going.
在他们到达目的地之前。
It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."
它被重新命名为“死马小道”。
And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time:
加拿大内政部长当时写道：
"Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way,
“数以千计的驮马死在路上，
sometimes in bunches under the cliffs,
有时在悬崖下成串，
with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above,
带着从上面的岩石上掉下来的包鞍和包，
sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes
有时成团纠缠，填满泥洞
and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march,
为我们可怜的驮畜行军提供唯一的立足点，
often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive,
很多时候，我很遗憾地说，筋疲力尽，但仍然活着，
a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches
我们不知道这一事实，直到那些可怜虫之后
turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade.
在我们队伍的马蹄下转过身来。
The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere
到处都是驮畜的无眼眼窝
account for the myriads of ravens along the road.
解释了路边无数的乌鸦。
The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to,
这条小路见证了不人道的现象，
the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone,
许多人经历过的心碎和痛苦，
cannot be imagined.
无法想象。
They certainly cannot be described."
他们当然无法被描述。”
And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that,
你知道，如果没有随之而来的气味，
we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations.
我们在互联网上也遇到了同样的事情：燃烧率计算非常糟糕。
I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it.
我只要弹奏其中一首，你就会记住它。
This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.
这是 2000 年超级碗比赛中播放的广告。
(Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations.
（视频）：新娘#1：你说你有很多邀请函可供选择。
Clerk: But we do.
职员：但是我们有。
Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation?
新娘#2：那她为什么会收到我的邀请函？
Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ...
播音员：对某些人来说可能是小事......
Bride #3: You are mine, little man.
新娘#3：你是我的，小男人。
Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you.
播音员：对你来说可能是一件大事。
Husband #1: Is that your wife?
丈夫#1：那是你的妻子吗？
Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes.
丈夫#2：再过 15 分钟就不行了。
Announcer: After all, it's your special day.
播音员：毕竟，这是你的特殊日子。
OurBeginning.com.
OurBeginning.com。
Life's an event.
生活是一场事件。
Announce it to the world.
向全世界宣布它。
Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.
杰夫·贝佐斯：很难弄清楚这个广告的用途。
But they spent three and a half million dollars
但他们花了三百五十万美元
in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad,
在 2000 年超级碗比赛中播放该广告，
even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue.
尽管当时他们的年收入只有一百万美元。
Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge,
现在，我们与淘金热的类比开始出现分歧，
and I think rather severely.
我认为相当严重。
And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over.
也就是说，在淘金热中，当它结束时，它就结束了。
Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson
这是这个人：“道森有很多男人
at the present time who feel keenly disappointed.
此刻，谁都感到极度失望。
They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property,
他们不远万里踏上危险的旅程，冒着生命、健康和财产的危险，
spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform
花费了几个月的人类所能完成的最艰苦的劳动
and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch
最后将期望提高到最高音调
have reached the coveted goal only to discover
达到了令人垂涎的目标却发现
the fact that there is nothing here for them."
事实上，这里对他们来说没有任何东西。”
And that was, of course, the very common story.
当然，这是一个很常见的故事。
Because when you take out that last piece of gold --
因为当你拿出最后一块金子时——
and they did incredibly quickly.
他们做得非常快。
I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush --
我的意思是，如果你看看 1849 年的淘金热——
the entire American river region, within two years --
两年内整个美国河流地区——
every stone had been turned.
每一块石头都被转动了。
And after that, only big companies
此后，只有大公司
who used more sophisticated mining technologies
谁使用了更先进的采矿技术
started to take gold out of there.
开始从那里带走黄金。
So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic
所以有一个更好的类比可以让你变得非常乐观
and that analogy is the electric industry.
这个类比就是电力行业。
And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.
而且互联网和电力行业有很多相似之处。
With the electric industry you actually have to --
对于电力行业，你实际上必须——
one of them is that they're both sort of thin,
其中之一是他们都有点瘦，
horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.
横向的，使层能够跨越许多不同的行业。
It's not a specific thing.
这不是一个具体的事情。
But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down.
但电力的范围也非常非常广泛，所以你必须缩小范围。
You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power.
您知道，它可以用作一种令人难以置信的电力传输方式。
It's an incredible means of coordinating,
这是一种令人难以置信的协调方式
in a very fine-grained way, information flows.
信息以非常细粒度的方式流动。
There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity.
关于电力，有很多有趣的事情。
And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on
我想重点关注的电气革命部分
is sort of the golden age of appliances.
现在是电器的黄金时代。
The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb.
让世界为电器做好准备的杀手级应用程序是灯泡。
So the light bulb is what wired the world.
所以灯泡就是连接世界的东西。
And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world.
当他们连接世界时，他们并没有考虑设备。
They were really thinking about --
他们真的在想——
they weren't putting electricity into the home;
他们没有给家里通电；
they were putting lighting into the home.
他们正在给家里装灯。
And, but it really -- it got the electricity.
而且，但它确实——它得到了电力。
It took a long time.
花了很长时间。
This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out.
正如你所预料的那样，这是一笔巨大的资本建设。
All the streets had to be torn up.
所有的街道都必须被拆毁。
This is work going on down in lower Manhattan
这是曼哈顿下城正在进行的工作
where they built some of the first electric power generating stations.
他们在那里建造了一些第一个发电站。
And they're tearing up all the streets.
他们正在拆毁所有的街道。
The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric,
爱迪生电气公司，后来成为爱迪生通用电气，
which became General Electric,
后来成为通用电气，
paid for all of this digging up of the streets.
为所有这些街道挖掘工作付出了代价。
It was incredibly expensive.
它非常昂贵。
But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web.
但这不是——也不是与网络最相似的部分。
Because, remember, the Web got to stand
因为，请记住，网络必须屹立不倒
on top of all this heavy infrastructure
在所有这些重型基础设施之上
that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network.
由于长途电话网络的存在，这一点已经到位。
So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure --
所以所有的布线和所有的重型基础设施——
I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994,
我现在要回到 1994 年网络爆炸性的部分，
when it was growing 2,300 percent a year.
当时它以每年 2,300% 的速度增长。
How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994
1994年它怎么能以每年2,300%的速度增长
when people weren't really investing in the Web?
当人们没有真正投资网络时？
Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.
嗯，这是因为重型基础设施已经铺设完毕。
So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure,
所以灯泡奠定了重型基础设施，
and then home appliances started coming into being.
然后家用电器开始出现。
And this was huge.
这是巨大的。
The first one was the electric fan --
第一个是电风扇——
this was the 1890 electric fan.
这是1890年的电风扇。
And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted --
电器的黄金时代确实持续了——
it depends how you want to measure it --
这取决于你想如何衡量它——
but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years.
但它的寿命从 40 到 60 年不等。
It goes on a long time.
它持续了很长时间。
It starts about 1890.
事情要从1890年左右说起。
And the electric fan was a big success.
电风扇获得了巨大成功。
The electric iron, also very big.
电熨斗，也很大。
By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.
顺便说一下，这就是石棉诉讼的开始。
There's asbestos under that handle there.
那个把手下面有石棉。
This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum,
这是第一台真空吸尘器，1905 Skinner Vacuum，
from the Hoover Company.
来自胡佛公司。
And this one weighed 92 pounds
这个重92磅
and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car.
需要两个人操作，花费四分之一辆车的费用。
So it wasn't a big seller.
所以销量并不大。
This was truly, truly an early-adopter product --
这确实是一个真正的早期采用者产品——
the 1905 Skinner Vacuum.
1905 年 Skinner 真空吸尘器。
But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds.
但三年后，即 1908 年，它重达 40 磅。
Now, not all these things were highly successful.
现在，并非所有这些事情都非常成功。
This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on.
这就是电动扎带机，但从未真正流行起来。
People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties.
我猜想，人们决定不再弄皱领带。
These never really caught on either:
这些都从未真正流行起来：
the electric shoe warmer and drier.
电动暖鞋器和烘干机。
Never a big seller.
从来都不是大卖家。
This came in, like, six different colors.
它有六种不同的颜色。
I don't know why.
我不知道为什么。
But I thought, you know,
但我想，你知道，
sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention;
有时候，这只是发明的最佳时机；
maybe it's time to give this one another shot.
也许是时候再试一次了。
So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this.
所以我想我们可以为此制作一个超级碗广告。
We'd need the right partner.
我们需要合适的合作伙伴。
And I thought that really --
我认为真的——
I thought that would really work, to give that another shot.
我认为这确实有效，可以再试一次。
Now, the toaster was huge
现在，烤面包机很大
because they used to make toast on open fires,
因为他们过去常常在明火上烤面包，
and it took a lot of time and attention.
这花费了大量的时间和精力。
I want to point out one thing.
我想指出一件事。
This is -- you guys know what this is.
这是——你们知道这是什么。
They hadn't invented the electric socket yet.
他们还没有发明电源插座。
So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity.
所以这是——记住，他们没有给房子布线。
They wired them for lighting.
他们给它们接线以照明。
So your -- your appliances would plug in.
这样你的——你的电器就会插上电源。
They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top.
他们会——每个房间的顶部通常都有一个灯泡插座。
And you'd plug it in there.
然后你把它插在那里。
In fact, if you've seen the Carousel of Progress at Disney World,
事实上，如果您看过迪士尼世界的进步旋转木马，
you've seen this.
你已经看过这个了。
Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture.
这是连接到该灯具的电缆。
All the appliances plug in there.
所有的电器都插在那里。
And you would just unscrew your light bulb
你只需拧开灯泡
if you wanted to plug in an appliance.
如果您想插入设备。
The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine.
接下来真正重要的是洗衣机。
Now, this was an object of much envy and lust.
现在，这是一个令人羡慕和渴望的对象。
Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines.
每个人都想要一台这样的电动洗衣机。
On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water.
左边是肥皂水。
And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning.
那里有一个转子——这个电机正在旋转。
And it would clean your clothes.
它会清洁你的衣服。
This is the clean rinse-water.
这是干净的冲洗水。
So you'd take the clothes out of here,
所以你要把衣服带出这里
put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric wringer.
把它们放在这里，然后你就可以通过这个电动绞拧机来处理衣服。
And this was a big deal.
这是一件大事。
You'd keep this on your porch.
你可以把这个放在你的门廊上。
It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain.
这有点乱而且有点痛苦。
And you'd run a long cord into the house
你会在房子里拉一根长绳子
where you could screw it into your light socket.
您可以将其拧入灯座。
And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation,
这实际上是我演讲中的一个重要观点，
because they hadn't invented the off switch.
因为他们没有发明关闭开关。
That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances --
那是很久以后的事情了——关闭电器开关——
because it didn't make any sense.
因为这没有任何意义。
I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket.
我的意思是，你不想让这个东西堵塞电灯插座。
So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it.
所以你知道，当你用完它后，你就把它拧开了。
That's what you did.
这就是你所做的。
You didn't turn it off.
你没有把它关掉。
And as I said before, they hadn't invented the electric outlet either,
正如我之前所说，他们也没有发明电源插座，
so the washing machine was a particularly dangerous device.
所以洗衣机是一个特别危险的设备。
when you research this, there are gruesome descriptions
当你研究这个时，有一些可怕的描述
of people getting their hair and clothes caught in these devices.
人们的头发和衣服被这些设备卷住。
And they couldn't yank the cord out
他们无法把绳子拔出来
because it was screwed into a light socket inside the house.
因为它被拧入房子内的电灯插座中。
And there was no off switch, so it wasn't very good.
而且没有关闭开关，所以不太好。
And you might think that that was incredibly stupid of our ancestors
你可能会认为我们祖先的做法非常愚蠢
to be plugging things into a light socket like this.
像这样将东西插入电灯插座。
But, you know, before I get too far into condemning our ancestors,
但是，你知道，在我进一步谴责我们的祖先之前，
I thought I'd show you: this is my conference room.
我想我应该告诉你：这是我的会议室。
This is a total kludge, if you ask me.
如果你问我的话，这完全是一个拼凑。
First of all, this got installed upside down.
首先，这是颠倒安装的。
This light socket --
这个灯座——
and so the cord keeps falling out, so I taped it in.
所以绳子总是掉出来，所以我把它粘起来。
This is supposed -- don't even get me started.
这是假设的——别让我开始。
But that's not the worst one.
但这还不是最糟糕的。
This is what it looks like under my desk.
这就是我桌子下面的样子。
I took this picture just two days ago.
这张照片是我两天前拍的。
So we really haven't progressed that much since 1908.
所以自 1908 年以来我们确实没有取得多大进展。
It's a total, total mess.
这完全是一团糟。
And, you know, we think it's getting better,
而且，你知道，我们认为情况正在变得更好，
but have you tried to install 802.11 yourself?
但您尝试过自己安装802.11吗？
I challenge you to try.
我挑战你尝试一下。
It's very hard.
这很难。
I know Ph.D.s in Computer Science --
我认识计算机科学博士——
this process has brought them to tears, absolute tears.
这个过程让他们流泪，绝对的泪水。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
And that's assuming you already have DSL in your house.
这是假设您家里已经有 DSL。
Try to get DSL installed in your house.
尝试在家里安装 DSL。
The engineers who do it everyday can't do it.
每天做这件事的工程师都做不到。
They have to -- typically, they come three times.
他们必须——通常，他们会来三次。
And one friend of mine was telling me a story:
我的一个朋友给我讲了一个故事：
not only did they get there and have to wait,
他们不仅到达那里并且必须等待，
but then the engineers, when they finally did get there,
但当工程师最终到达那里时，
for the third time, they had to call somebody.
第三次，他们不得不打电话给某人。
And they were really happy that the guy had a speakerphone
他们很高兴那家伙有扬声器
because then they had to wait on hold for an hour
因为那时他们不得不等待一个小时
to talk to somebody to give them an access code
与某人交谈并给他们一个访问代码
after they got there.
他们到达那里之后。
So we're not -- we're pretty kludge-y ourselves.
所以我们不是——我们自己也很混乱。
By the way, DSL is a kludge.
顺便说一句，DSL 是一个拼凑品。
I mean, this is a twisted pair of copper that was never designed
我的意思是，这是从未设计过的双绞铜
for the purpose it's being put to --
其目的是——
you know it's the whole thing --
你知道这就是整件事——
we're very, very primitive.
我们非常非常原始。
And that's kind of the point.
这就是重点。
Because, you know, resilience -- if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush,
因为，你知道，韧性——如果你从淘金热的角度来思考它，
then you'd be pretty depressed right now
那么你现在会非常沮丧
because the last nugget of gold would be gone.
因为最后一块金子将会消失。
But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget.
但好的一面是，有了创新，就不会有最后的金块。
Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.
每一个新事物都会产生两个新问题和两个新机会。
And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are --
如果你相信这一点，那么你就相信我们现在所处的位置——
this is what I think -- I believe that where we are with the incredible kludge --
这就是我的想法——我相信我们现在的处境是令人难以置信的拼凑——
and I haven't even talked about user interfaces on the Web --
我什至还没有谈论过网络上的用户界面——
but there's so much kludge, so much terrible stuff --
但有太多的拼凑，太多可怕的东西——
we are at the 1908 Hurley washing machine stage with the Internet.
我们正处于 1908 年赫尔利洗衣机互联网时代。
That's where we are.
这就是我们现在的情况。
We don't get our hair caught in it,
我们的头发不会被卷进去，
but that's the level of primitiveness of where we are.
但这就是我们所处的原始水平。
And if you believe that, then stuff like this doesn't bother you.
如果你相信这一点，那么类似的事情就不会打扰你。
This is 1996:
这是 1996 年：
"All the negatives add up to making the online experience not worth the trouble."
“所有的负面因素加起来让在线体验变得不值得。”
1998: "Amazon.toast." In 1999: "Amazon.bomb."
1998 年：“亚马逊吐司”。 1999 年：“亚马逊炸弹”。
My mom hates this picture.
我妈妈讨厌这张照片。
She -- but you know, if you really do believe that it's the very,
她——但是你知道，如果你真的相信这就是，
very beginning, if you believe it's the 1908 Hurley washing machine,
从一开始，如果你相信这是 1908 年的赫尔利洗衣机，
then you're incredibly optimistic.
那么你就非常乐观了。
And I do think that that's where we are.
我确实认为这就是我们现在的处境。
And I do think there's more innovation ahead of us
我确实认为我们面前还有更多创新
than there is behind us.
比我们后面的还要多。
And in 1917, Sears -- I want to get this exactly right.
1917 年，西尔斯——我想完全正确地做到这一点。
This was the advertisement that they ran in 1917.
这是他们在 1917 年投放的广告。
It says: "Use your electricity for more than light."
它说：“你的电不仅仅是光。”
And I think that's where we are.
我认为这就是我们现在的处境。
We're very, very early.
我们来得非常非常早。
Thank you very much.
非常感谢。