The Mind Behind Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity

Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream

克里斯·安德森：埃隆，这是一个多么疯狂的梦想

would persuade you to think of trying

会说服你考虑尝试

to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car?

挑战汽车行业并制造全电动汽车？

Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university.

埃隆·马斯克：嗯，这可以追溯到我上大学的时候。

I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely

我思考了一下，最有可能出现的问题是什么

to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity?

影响世界的未来还是人类的未来？

I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport

我认为我们拥有可持续的交通极其重要

and sustainable energy production.

和可持续能源生产。

That sort of overall sustainable energy problem

这种整体可持续能源问题

is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century,

是我们本世纪要解决的最大问题

independent of environmental concerns.

独立于环境问题。

In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment,

事实上，即使产生二氧化碳对环境有好处，

given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons,

考虑到我们即将耗尽碳氢化合物

we need to find some sustainable means of operating.

我们需要找到一些可持续的运作方式。

burning fossil fuels.

燃烧化石燃料。

How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?

插入电力的电动汽车有何帮助？

One is that, even if you take the same source fuel

一是，即使你采用相同来源的燃料

and produce power at the power plant

并在发电厂发电

and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off.

并用它来给电动汽车充电，你的情况还是更好。

So if you take, say, natural gas,

所以如果你使用天然气

which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel,

这是最普遍的碳氢化合物源燃料，

if you burn that in a modern

如果你用现代的方式烧掉它

General Electric natural gas turbine,

通用电气天然气涡轮机、

you'll get about 60 percent efficiency.

您将获得大约 60% 的效率。

If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car,

如果你将同样的燃料放入内燃机汽车中

you get about 20 percent efficiency.

您将获得大约 20% 的效率。

And the reason is, in the stationary power plant,

原因是，在固定发电厂中，

you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more,

你可以买得起更重的东西，

and you can take the waste heat

你可以利用余热

and run a steam turbine and generate

并运行蒸汽轮机并产生

a secondary power source.

辅助电源。

So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything,

所以实际上，即使你考虑了传输损耗和所有因素，

even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off

即使使用相同的来源燃料，您的情况至少会好两倍

charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant.

为电动汽车充电，然后在发电厂燃烧。

And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means

另一点是，我们必须有可持续的手段

of power generation anyway, electricity generation.

无论如何，发电。

So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation,

因此，鉴于我们必须解决可持续发电问题，

then it makes sense for us to have electric cars

那么我们拥有电动汽车就有意义了

as the mode of transport.

作为运输方式。

of the Tesla being assembled,

正在组装的特斯拉，

which, if we could play that first video --

如果我们可以播放第一个视频——

So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?

那么这款车的这一工艺有何创新之处呢？

and I should say that I think, actually,

我应该说，我认为，实际上，

all modes of transport will become fully electric

所有交通方式都将实现全电动化

with the ironic exception of rockets.

具有讽刺意味的是，火箭除外。

There's just no way around Newton's third law.

没有办法绕过牛顿第三定律。

The question is how do you accelerate

问题是如何加速

the advent of electric transport?

电动交通的出现？

And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with

为了在汽车上做到这一点，你必须想出

a really energy efficient car,

一辆真正节能的汽车，

so that means making it incredibly light,

所以这意味着让它变得非常轻，

and so what you're seeing here

所以你在这里看到的

is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car

是唯一一款全铝车身和底盘的汽车

made in North America.

北美制造。

In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques

事实上，我们应用了很多火箭设计技术

to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack.

尽管有一个非常大的电池组，但仍使汽车变得轻。

And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient

然后它还具有最低的阻力系数

of any car of its size.

任何其尺寸的汽车。

So as a result, the energy usage is very low,

因此，能源使用量非常低，

and it has the most advanced battery pack,

并且它拥有最先进的电池组，

and that's what gives it the range that's competitive,

这就是它具有竞争力的范围，

so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.

所以你实际上可以拥有大约 250 英里的续航里程。

but you think the math can still work out intelligently --

但你认为数学仍然可以聪明地计算出来——

by combining light body, heavy battery,

通过结合轻机身、重电池，

you can still gain spectacular efficiency.

您仍然可以获得惊人的效率。

to offset the mass of the pack,

以抵消包装的质量，

and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range.

然后你必须有一个低阻力系数，这样你才能有良好的高速公路行驶里程。

And in fact, customers of the Model S

事实上，Model S 的客户

are sort of competing with each other

有点互相竞争

to try to get the highest possible range.

尝试获得尽可能高的范围。

I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.

我想最近有人一次充电就跑了 420 英里。

broke the world record.EM: Congratulations.

打破了世界纪录。 EM：恭喜。

to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed

为了做到这一点，他必须以每小时 18 英里的速度匀速行驶

and got pulled over by the cops.

并被警察拦下。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

if you drive it 65 miles an hour,

如果你以每小时 65 英里的速度行驶

under normal conditions,

在正常情况下，

250 miles is a reasonable number.

250 英里是一个合理的数字。

showing the Tesla in action on ice.

展示特斯拉在冰上行驶的情况。

Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way.

顺便说一下，这根本不是对《纽约时报》的挖苦。

What is the most surprising thing about the experience

这次经历中最令人惊讶的事情是什么

the responsiveness of the car is really incredible.

汽车的响应能力确实令人难以置信。

So we wanted really to have people feel as though

所以我们真的想让人们感觉好像

they've almost got to mind meld with the car,

他们几乎要和汽车融为一体，

so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one,

所以你会感觉你和车是一体的，

and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens,

当你转弯并加速时，它就发生了，

like the car has ESP.

就像汽车有ESP一样。

You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness.

您可以使用电动汽车来做到这一点，因为它的响应速度快。

You can't do that with a gasoline car.

汽油车无法做到这一点。

I think that's really a profound difference,

我认为这确实是一个深刻的区别

and people only experience that when they have a test drive.

人们只有在试驾时才会体验到这一点。

Is there a road map where this becomes

有没有一个路线图可以实现这一点

a mass-market vehicle?

大众市场车辆？

to have a sort of three-step process,

有一个三步过程，

where version one was an expensive car at low volume,

其中第一个版本是一辆价格昂贵但产量较低的汽车，

version two is medium priced and medium volume,

第二版是中等价格和中等数量，

and then version three would be low price, high volume.

然后第三版将是低价、高销量。

So we're at step two at this point.

所以我们现在处于第二步。

So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster.

所以我们有一辆价值 10 万美元的跑车，那就是 Roadster。

Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars.

然后是 Model S，起价约为 50,000 美元。

And our third generation car, which should hopefully

还有我们的第三代汽车，希望它能够

be out in about three or four years

大约三四年后就会出局

will be a $30,000 car.

将是一辆价值 30,000 美元的汽车。

But whenever you've got really new technology,

但每当你拥有真正的新技术时

it generally takes about three major versions

一般需要三个主要版本左右

in order to make it a compelling mass-market product.

使其成为引人注目的大众市场产品。

And so I think we're making progress in that direction,

所以我认为我们正在朝这个方向取得进展，

and I feel confident that we'll get there.

我相信我们会实现这一目标。

you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home.

你可以开车，你可以回来，你可以在家充电。

There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast.

现在还没有庞大的全国性快速充电站网络。

Do you see that coming, really, truly,

你是否看到那即将到来，真的，真的，

or just on a few key routes?

或者只是在几条关键路线上？

than people realize,

比人们意识到的

and at Tesla we developed something

在特斯拉，我们开发了一些东西

called a Supercharging technology,

称为超级充电技术，

and we're offering that if you buy a Model S

如果您购买 Model S，我们将提供此优惠

And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize.

所以这可能是很多人没有意识到的。

We actually have California and Nevada covered,

我们实际上覆盖了加利福尼亚州和内华达州，

and we've got the Eastern seaboard

我们有东海岸

from Boston to D.C. covered.

从波士顿到华盛顿特区。

By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive

到今年年底，你就可以开车了

from L.A.

来自洛杉矶

to New York

飞往纽约

just using the Supercharger network,

只需使用 Supercharger 网络，

which charges at five times the rate of anything else.

其收费是其他任何费用的五倍。

And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop,

关键是要有一个驱动停止的比率，

to stop time, of about six or seven.

停止时间，大约有六七点。

So if you drive for three hours,

所以如果你开车三个小时

you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes,

你想停下来20或30分钟，

because that's normally what people will stop for.

因为这通常是人们会停下来的地方。

So if you start a trip at 9 a.m.,

所以如果你早上9点开始旅行，

by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat,

到了中午你想停下来吃点东西，

hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.

去洗手间，喝杯咖啡，然后继续。

So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes.

所以这很常见——不要指望在 10 分钟内离开这里。

Wait for an hour, but the good news is,

等一个小时，但好消息是，

you're helping save the planet,

你正在帮助拯救地球，

and by the way, the electricity is free.

顺便说一句，电是免费的。

You don't pay anything.

您无需支付任何费用。

to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour.

停下来大约20到30分钟，而不是一个小时。

It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles

实际上最好行驶大约 160、170 英里

and then stop for half an hour

然后停半个小时

and then keep going.

然后继续。

That's the natural cadence of a trip.

这就是旅行的自然节奏。

You've been working on this solar company SolarCity.

您一直在 SolarCity 这家太阳能公司工作。

What's unusual about that?

这有什么不寻常的吗？

we have to have sustainable electricity production

我们必须拥有可持续的电力生产

as well as consumption,

还有消费，

so I'm quite confident that the primary means

所以我非常有信心主要手段

of power generation will be solar.

发电将是太阳能。

I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is.

我的意思是，这确实是间接融合，就是这样。

We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun,

我们在天空中有一个巨大的聚变发生器，称为太阳，

and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy

我们只需要利用一点能量

for purposes of human civilization.

为了人类文明的目的。

What most people know but don't realize they know

大多数人都知道但没有意识到他们知道的事情

is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already.

世界几乎已经完全由太阳能驱动。

If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball

如果没有太阳，我们就会变成一个冰冻的冰球

at three degrees Kelvin,

在三开尔文温度下，

and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation.

太阳为整个降水系统提供动力。

The whole ecosystem is solar-powered.

整个生态系统都是由太阳能供电的。

effectively, thousands of years of sun power

有效地利用了数千年的太阳能

compressed into a small space,

压缩成一个狭小的空间，

so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar,

所以现在很难让这些数字在太阳能上发挥作用，

and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas,

并与天然气等进行远程竞争，

fracked natural gas.

水力压裂天然气。

How are you going to build a business here?

您打算如何在这里开展业务？

will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas.

毫无疑问，它将击败一切，包括天然气。

or you can lease a solar system.

或者你可以租用一个太阳能系统。

Most people choose to lease.

大多数人选择租赁。

And the thing about solar power is that

关于太阳能的事情是

it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs,

它没有任何原料或运营成本，

so once it's installed, it's just there.

所以一旦安装完毕，它就在那里。

It works for decades.

它可以工作几十年。

It'll work for probably a century.

它可能会工作一个世纪。

So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost

因此，关键是要获取成本

of that initial installation low,

初始安装较低，

and then get the cost of the financing low,

然后降低融资成本，

because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar.

因为这种兴趣是推动太阳能成本的两个因素。

And we've made huge progress in that direction,

我们在这个方向上取得了巨大的进步

and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.

这就是为什么我相信我们实际上会击败天然气。

don't pay so much up front.

不要预先支付那么多费用。

We will install panels on your roof.

我们将在您的屋顶上安装面板。

You will then pay, how long is a typical lease?

然后您将付款，典型的租约是多长？

but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward.

但正如您所提到的，价值主张非常简单。

It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases.

无需首付，您的水电费也会减少。

No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now.

没有风险，您支付的费用将低于现在支付的费用。

For you, the dream here then is that --

对你来说，这里的梦想是——

I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term?

我的意思是，从长远来看，谁拥有这些电池板的电力？

I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?

我的意思是，你和公司如何受益？

SolarCity raises a chunk of capital

SolarCity筹集大量资金

from say, a company or a bank.

例如，来自公司或银行。

Google is one of our big partners here.

谷歌是我们这里的重要合作伙伴之一。

And they have an expected return on that capital.

他们对该资本有预期回报。

With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof

SolarCity 利用这笔资金购买了太阳能电池板并将其安装在屋顶上

and then charges the homeowner or business owner

然后向房主或企业主收费

a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.

每月支付的租金，少于水电费。

You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility.

您正在构建一种新型的分布式实用程序。

is a giant distributed utility.

是一个巨大的分布式实用程序。

I think it's a good thing, because utilities

我认为这是一件好事，因为公用事业

have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice.

一直如此垄断，人们没有任何选择。

So effectively it's the first time

这么有效这是第一次

there's been competition for this monopoly,

存在着对这种垄断的竞争，

because the utilities have been the only ones

因为公用事业是唯一的

that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof.

曾经拥有这些配电线路，但现在它在你的屋顶上。

So I think it's actually very empowering

所以我认为这实际上非常有力量

for homeowners and businesses.

对于房主和企业。

where a majority of power in America,

美国的大多数权力，

within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?

一两年内，或者在你的一生中，它会变成太阳能吗？

and most likely a majority,

并且很可能是大多数，

and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.

我预测不到 20 年就会实现多数派。

I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is?

我和某人打了赌——CA：复数的定义是？

so in roughly 18 years,

所以在大约18年的时间里

I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.

我认为我们将看到太阳能比任何其他来源都多。

with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet.

我想，和你自己打赌是一种疯狂的赌注。

You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal.

您通过出售 PayPal 赚了一些钱。

You decided to build a space company.

您决定建立一家太空公司。

Why on Earth would someone do that?

到底为什么有人会这么做？

People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy

人们会说，“你听过关于这个人的笑话吗？

who made a small fortune in the space industry?"

谁在航天工业中发了一笔小财？”

Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline.

显然，“他从一个大的开始”是笑点。

And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out

所以我告诉人们，好吧，我试图弄清楚

the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one.

将大笔财富变成小笔财富的最快方法。

And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"

他们会看着我，就像，“他是认真的吗？”

We came very close to failure,

我们非常接近失败，

but we managed to get through that point in 2008.

但我们在 2008 年成功度过了这一关。

The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology,

SpaceX的目标是尝试推进火箭技术，

and in particular to try to crack a problem

尤其是尝试解决问题

that I think is vital

我认为至关重要

for humanity to become a space-faring civilization,

让人类成为太空文明，

which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.

这就是拥有一个快速且完全可重复使用的火箭。

So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age?

所以从某种程度上来说，这是你从小就有的梦想？

You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?

您梦想过火星及更远的地方吗？

but I didn't think I'd be involved in this.

但我没想到我会参与其中。

It was really more from the standpoint of

这确实更多是从

what are the things that need to happen in order for

需要发生哪些事情才能

the future to be an exciting and inspiring one?

未来会是一个令人兴奋和鼓舞人心的未来吗？

And I really think there's a fundamental difference,

我真的认为有一个根本的区别

if you sort of look into the future,

如果你展望未来

between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization,

在一个太空文明的人类之间，

that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets,

在那里探索恒星，在多个行星上，

and I think that's really exciting,

我认为这真的很令人兴奋

compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth

与我们永远被限制在地球上的地方相比

until some eventual extinction event.

直到一些最终的灭绝事件。

a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it.

火箭提高了 75%，具体取决于你如何计算。

How on Earth have you done that?

你到底是怎么做到的？

NASA has been doing this for years.

美国宇航局多年来一直在这样做。

How have you done this?

你是怎么做到的？

in the technology of the airframe, the engines,

在机身、发动机技术方面，

the electronics and the launch operation.

电子设备和发射操作。

There's a long list of innovations

有一长串的创新

that we've come up with there

我们在那里想出了

that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but --

在这次演讲中沟通有点困难，但是——

You haven't patented this stuff.

你还没有为这个东西申请专利。

It's really interesting to me.

这对我来说真的很有趣。

more dangerous to patent than not to patent.

申请专利比不申请专利更危险。

the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause)

专利的可执行性值得怀疑。（笑声）（掌声）

But the big innovation is still ahead,

但大创新仍在前方，

and you're working on it now.

而你现在正在努力。

Tell us about this.

告诉我们这件事。

they're all expendable.

他们都是消耗品。

All rockets that fly today are fully expendable.

今天飞行的所有火箭都是完全消耗性的。

The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket,

航天飞机是对可重复使用火箭的一次尝试

but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time,

但连航天飞机的主油箱每次都被扔掉，

and the parts that were reusable

以及可重复使用的部件

took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight.

一个 10,000 人的团队花了九个月的时间才完成飞行翻新。

So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight.

因此，航天飞机每次飞行最终花费了 10 亿美元。

Obviously that doesn't work very well for —

显然这对于——

be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site

能够回来，能够回到发射场

and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.

并在几小时内准备好再次启动。

And so what a lot of people don't realize is,

所以很多人没有意识到的是，

the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small.

燃料、推进剂的成本非常低。

It's much like on a jet.

这很像在喷气式飞机上。

So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent

所以推进剂的成本约为 0.3%

of the cost of the rocket.

火箭的成本。

So it's possible to achieve, let's say,

所以可以说，

roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight

航天成本降低约 100 倍

if you can effectively reuse the rocket.

如果你能有效地重复利用火箭。

That's why it's so important.

这就是为什么它如此重要。

Every mode of transport that we use,

我们使用的每一种交通方式，

whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses,

无论是飞机、火车、汽车、自行车、马匹，

is reusable, but not rockets.

可以重复使用，但不能火箭。

So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization.

所以我们必须解决这个问题才能成为太空文明。

of how popular traveling on cruises would be

游轮旅行有多受欢迎

if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic.

如果之后你不得不烧毁你的船只。 EM：某些巡航显然存在很大问题。

So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology,

所以这绝对是潜在的颠覆性技术

and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take,

而且，我想，这会为你的梦想真正实现铺平道路，

at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale.

在某个时刻，将人类大规模带到火星。

You'd like to see a colony on Mars.

你想看看火星上的殖民地。

of companies and governments, needs to make progress

企业和政府需要取得进展

in the direction of making life multi-planetary,

朝着让生命进入多行星的方向，

of establishing a base on another planet,

在另一个星球上建立基地，

on Mars -- being the only realistic option --

登陆火星——这是唯一现实的选择——

and then building that base up

然后建立这个基础

until we're a true multi-planet species.

直到我们成为真正的多行星物种。

how is that going?

怎么样？

That was just a simulation video we saw.

那只是我们看到的模拟视频。

with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project,

我们称之为 Grasshopper 测试项目，

where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight,

我们正在测试飞行的垂直着陆部分，

the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky.

那种终端部分相当棘手。

And we've had some good tests.

我们已经进行了一些很好的测试。

So that's just to give a sense of scale.

所以这只是为了给人一种规模感。

We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash

我们把牛仔打扮成约翰尼·卡什

and bolted the mannequin to the rocket.

并将人体模型用螺栓固定在火箭上。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

because this is actually amazing when you think about it.

因为当你仔细想想，这实际上是令人惊奇的。

You've never seen this before.

你以前从未见过这个。

A rocket blasting off and then --

一枚火箭升空，然后——

of a 12-story building.

一座12层楼的建筑。

So now it's hovering at about 40 meters,

所以现在它悬停在40米左右，

and it's constantly adjusting

并且它在不断调整

the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine,

主机的角度、俯仰角和偏航角，

and maintaining roll with cold gas thrusters.

并用冷气体推进器保持滚动。

Elon, how have you done this?

埃隆，你是怎么做到的？

These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity,

这些项目是如此——Paypal、SolarCity、

Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different,

特斯拉、SpaceX，它们是如此的不同，

they're such ambitious projects at scale.

它们的规模是如此雄心勃勃。

How on Earth has one person

地球上怎么会有一个人

been able to innovate in this way?

能够这样创新吗？

What is it about you?

关你什么事？

I don't have a good answer for you.

我没有一个好的答案给你。

I work a lot.

我工作很多。

I mean, a lot.

我的意思是，很多。

have an ability to think at a system level of design

具有在系统设计层面思考的能力

that pulls together design, technology and business,

将设计、技术和商业融为一体，

so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business,

所以如果 TED 是 TBD，设计、技术和商业，

synthesize it in a way that very few people can and --

以很少有人能做到的方式合成它——

and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident

这是关键的事情——感到非常自信

in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks.

在那个点击在一起的包中，你冒着疯狂的风险。

You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times.

你把自己的财富都押在了上面，而且你似乎已经这么做过很多次了。

I mean, almost no one can do that.

我的意思是，几乎没有人能做到这一点。

Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce?

那是——我们可以喝点秘方吗？

Can we put it into our education system?

我们能把它纳入我们的教育体系吗？

Can someone learn from you?

有人可以向你学习吗？

It is truly amazing what you've done.

你所做的事情确实令人惊奇。

Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking.

嗯，我确实认为有一个很好的思考框架。

It is physics.

这是物理学。

You know, the sort of first principles reasoning.

你知道，这是第一性原理推理。

Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is,

一般来说，我认为有——我的意思是，

boil things down to their fundamental truths

把事情归结为基本事实

and reason up from there,

并从那里推理，

as opposed to reasoning by analogy.

而不是类比推理。

Through most of our life, we get through life

我们度过了人生的大部分时间

by reasoning by analogy,

类比推理，

which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations.

这本质上意味着复制其他人所做的事情，但略有不同。

And you have to do that.

你必须这样做。

Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day.

否则，在精神上，你将无法度过这一天。

But when you want to do something new,

但当你想做一些新的事情时

you have to apply the physics approach.

你必须应用物理方法。

Physics is really figuring out how to discover

物理学真正在于弄清楚如何发现

new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics.

违反直觉的新事物，例如量子力学。

It's really counterintuitive.

这确实违反直觉。

So I think that's an important thing to do,

所以我认为这是一件重要的事情

and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback,

然后还要真正关注负面反馈，

and solicit it, particularly from friends.

并征求它，特别是从朋友那里。

This may sound like simple advice,

这听起来像是简单的建议，

but hardly anyone does that,

但很少有人这样做，

and it's incredibly helpful.

这非常有帮助。

Learn from this man.

向这个人学习。

Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED.

埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk），我希望我们能度过一整天，但非常感谢你来到 TED。

Look at that.

看看那个。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Just take a bow.

鞠躬吧。

That was fantastic.

那太棒了。