Innovating to Zero!

I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.

我今天要谈谈能源和气候。

And that might seem a bit surprising,

这可能看起来有点令人惊讶，

because my full-time work at the foundation

因为我的全职工作是在基金会

is mostly about vaccines and seeds,

主要是关于疫苗和种子，

about the things that we need to invent and deliver

关于我们需要发明和交付的东西

to help the poorest two billion live better lives.

帮助最贫困的 20 亿人过上更好的生活。

But energy and climate are extremely important to these people;

但能源和气候对这些人来说极其重要。

in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.

事实上，这比地球上任何其他人都重要。

The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow:

气候变得更糟意味着很多年里他们的庄稼都不会生长：

there will be too much rain, not enough rain;

雨太多，雨不够；

things will change in ways their fragile environment simply can't support.

事情将以他们脆弱的环境根本无法支持的方式发生变化。

And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.

这会导致饥饿、不确定性、动乱。

So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.

因此，气候变化对他们来说将是可怕的。

Also, the price of energy is very important to them.

此外，能源价格对他们来说非常重要。

In fact, if you could pick just one thing

事实上，如果你只能选择一件事

to lower the price of to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy.

为了降低价格以减少贫困，到目前为止你会选择能源。

Now, the price of energy has come down over time.

现在，随着时间的推移，能源价格已经下降。

Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.

真正先进的文明是建立在能源进步的基础上的。

The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution,

煤炭革命推动了工业革命，

and, even in the 1900s, we've seen a very rapid decline

即使在 1900 年代，我们也看到了非常迅速的下降

in the price of electricity,

在电价方面，

and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning;

这就是为什么我们有冰箱、空调；

we can make modern materials and do so many things.

我们可以制造现代材料并做很多事情。

And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.

因此，在富裕国家，我们的电力状况非常好。

But as we make it cheaper -- and let's say,

但当我们让它变得更便宜时——比方说，

let's go for making it twice as cheap --

让我们努力让它便宜两倍——

we need to meet a new constraint,

我们需要满足一个新的约束，

and that constraint has to do with CO2.

这个限制与二氧化碳有关。

CO2 is warming the planet,

二氧化碳正在使地球变暖，

and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.

CO2 的方程实际上是一个非常简单的方程。

If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,

如果将排放的二氧化碳加起来，

that leads to a temperature increase,

从而导致温度升高，

and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects:

温度升高会导致一些非常负面的影响：

the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects,

对天气的影响；也许更糟糕的是，间接影响，

in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,

因为自然生态系统无法适应这些快速变化，

and so you get ecosystem collapses.

所以生态系统就会崩溃。

Now, the exact amount of how you map from a certain increase of CO2

现在，您可以根据二氧化碳的一定增加来绘制准确的量

to what temperature will be, and where the positive feedbacks are --

温度是多少，正反馈在哪里——

there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.

存在一些不确定性，但不是很多。

And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,

这些影响会有多严重肯定存在不确定性，

but they will be extremely bad.

但他们会非常糟糕。

I asked the top scientists on this several times:

我多次就这个问题询问过顶尖科学家：

Do we really have to get down to near zero?

我们真的必须降到接近零吗？

Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?

我们不能把它切成两半或四分之一吗？

And the answer is, until we get near to zero,

答案是，直到我们接近零，

the temperature will continue to rise.

气温还将继续升高。

And so that's a big challenge.

所以这是一个很大的挑战。

It's very different than saying,

这和说的很不一样

"We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,

“我们是一辆 12 英尺高的卡车，试图驶入一座 10 英尺高的桥下，

and we can just sort of squeeze under."

我们可以挤在下面。”

This is something that has to get to zero.

这是必须归零的事情。

Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year --

现在，我们每年排放大量二氧化碳——

over 26 billion tons.

超过260亿吨。

For each American, it's about 20 tons.

对于每个美国人来说，大约是20吨。

For people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.

对于贫穷国家的人们来说，还不到一吨。

It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.

地球上每个人的平均重量约为五吨。

And somehow, we have to make changes that will bring that down to zero.

不知何故，我们必须做出改变，将其降至零。

It's been constantly going up.

一直在不断上涨。

It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,

只是各种经济变化甚至让它变得平坦，

so we have to go from rapidly rising to falling,

所以我们必须从快速上升到下降，

and falling all the way to zero.

并一路跌至零。

This equation has four factors, a little bit of multiplication.

这个方程有四个因子，还有一点乘法。

So you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,

所以你在左边有一个东西，二氧化碳，你想把它变成零，

and that's going to be based on the number of people,

这将取决于人数

the services each person is using on average,

每个人平均使用的服务，

the energy, on average, for each service,

平均每项服务的能量，

and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.

以及每单位能量排放的二氧化碳。

So let's look at each one of these,

让我们看看其中的每一个，

and see how we can get this down to zero.

看看我们如何才能将其降至零。

Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.

也许，这些数字之一必须非常接近于零。

That's back from high school algebra.

这是从高中代数回来的。

But let's take a look.

但让我们看一下。

First, we've got population.

首先，我们有人口。

The world today has 6.8 billion people.

当今世界有 68 亿人口。

That's headed up to about nine billion.

这个数字将达到约 90 亿。

Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,

现在，如果我们在新疫苗方面做得非常出色，

health care, reproductive health services,

保健、生殖健康服务、

we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent.

我们可以将其降低 10% 或 15%。

But there, we see an increase of about 1.3.

但在那里，我们看到增加了约 1.3。

The second factor is the services we use.

第二个因素是我们使用的服务。

This encompasses everything:

这涵盖了一切：

the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.

我们吃的食物、衣服、电视、暖气。

These are very good things.

这些都是非常好的事情。

Getting rid of poverty means providing these services

摆脱贫困意味着提供这些服务

to almost everyone on the planet.

几乎地球上的每个人。

And it's a great thing for this number to go up.

这个数字的上升是一件好事。

In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,

在富裕世界，也许是前十亿，

we probably could cut back and use less,

我们或许可以减少用量并减少使用，

but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,

但每年这个数字平均都会上升

and so, overall, that will more than double

因此，总体而言，这将增加一倍以上

the services delivered per person.

每人提供的服务。

Here we have a very basic service:

这里我们有一个非常基本的服务：

Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework?

您家里有照明以便阅读作业吗？

And, in fact, these kids don't,

事实上，这些孩子不，

so they're going out and reading their schoolwork

so they're going out and reading their schoolwork

under the street lamps.

路灯下。

Now, efficiency, "E," the energy for each service --

Now, efficiency, "E," the energy for each service --

here, finally we have some good news.

在这里，我们终于有一些好消息了。

We have something that's not going up.

我们有一些东西不会上升。

Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,

通过各种发明和新的照明方式，

through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings --

通过不同类型的汽车、不同的建造方式——

there are a lot of services

有很多服务

where you can bring the energy for that service down

where you can bring the energy for that service down

quite substantially.

相当大。

Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent.

Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent.

There are other services, like how we make fertilizer,

There are other services, like how we make fertilizer,

or how we do air transport,

或者我们如何进行航空运输，

where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.

where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.

And so overall, if we're optimistic, we may get a reduction

And so overall, if we're optimistic, we may get a reduction

of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.

of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.

But for these first three factors now,

但现在对于前三个因素来说，

we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,

we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,

and that just won't cut it.

但这并不能解决问题。

So let's look at this fourth factor -- this is going to be a key one --

So let's look at this fourth factor -- this is going to be a key one --

and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.

这是每单位能量排放的二氧化碳量。

So the question is: Can you actually get that to zero?

So the question is: Can you actually get that to zero?

If you burn coal, no.

如果你烧煤，就不行。

If you burn natural gas, no.

如果你烧天然气，就不行。

Almost every way we make electricity today,

我们今天几乎所有的发电方式

except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.

except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.

And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,

And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,

is create a new system.

就是创建一个新的系统。

So we need energy miracles.

所以我们需要能源奇迹。

Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible.

Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible.

The microprocessor is a miracle.

微处理器是一个奇迹。

The personal computer is a miracle.

个人电脑是一个奇迹。

The Internet and its services are a miracle.

互联网及其服务是一个奇迹。

So the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.

So the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.

Usually, we don't have a deadline

通常，我们没有截止日期

where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.

你必须在某个日期之前获得奇迹。

Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.

通常，你只是袖手旁观，有些人会来，有些人不会。

This is a case where we actually have to drive at full speed

这是我们实际上必须全速行驶的情况

and get a miracle in a pretty tight timeline.

并在相当紧张的时间内创造奇迹。

Now, I thought, "How could I really capture this?

现在，我想：“我怎样才能真正捕捉到这一点？

Is there some kind of natural illustration,

有没有某种自然的例证，

some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?"

some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?"

I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitoes,

我想起一年前我带蚊子的时候，

and somehow people enjoyed that.

不知怎的，人们很喜欢这样。

It really got them involved in the idea of, you know,

这确实让他们产生了这样的想法，你知道，

there are people who live with mosquitoes.

有些人与蚊子一起生活。

With energy, all I could come up with is this.

有了能量，我能想到的就是这个。

I decided that releasing fireflies

我决定放萤火虫

would be my contribution to the environment here this year.

这将是我今年对这里的环境做出的贡献。

So here we have some natural fireflies.

所以这里我们有一些天然的萤火虫。

I'm told they don't bite; in fact, they might not even leave that jar.

我听说它们不咬人；事实上，他们甚至可能不会离开那个罐子。

Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky solutions like that one,

现在，有各种各样像那样的花哨的解决方案，

but they don't really add up to much.

但它们加起来并不算什么。

We need solutions, either one or several,

我们需要一个或多个解决方案，

that have unbelievable scale and unbelievable reliability.

具有令人难以置信的规模和令人难以置信的可靠性。

And although there's many directions that people are seeking,

尽管人们寻求的方向有很多，

I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.

我真的只看到五个能够达到大数字的。

I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.

我忽略了潮汐、地热、核聚变、生物燃料。

Those may make some contribution,

那些可能会做出一些贡献，

and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better.

如果他们能做得比我预期的更好，那就更好了。

But my key point here is that we're going to have to work on

但我的重点是我们必须努力

and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting,

我们不能放弃其中任何一个，因为它们看起来令人畏惧，

because they all have significant challenges.

因为他们都面临着重大挑战。

Let's look first at burning fossil fuels,

让我们首先看看燃烧化石燃料，

either burning coal or burning natural gas.

要么烧煤，要么烧天然气。

What you need to do there seems like it might be simple, but it's not.

您需要在那里做的事情看起来可能很简单，但事实并非如此。

And that's to take all the CO2,

那就是吸收所有的二氧化碳，

after you've burned it, going out the flue,

烧完后，从烟道出去，

pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere,

给它加压，创造一种液体，把它放在某个地方，

and hope it stays there.

并希望它留在那里。

Now, we have some pilot things

现在，我们有一些试点项目

that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level.

在 60% 到 80% 的水平上做到这一点。

But getting up to that full percentage -- that will be very tricky.

但要达到这个完整的百分比——这将是非常棘手的。

And agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard,

就这些二氧化碳数量应该放在哪里达成一致将很困难，

but the toughest one here is this long-term issue:

但这里最棘手的是这个长期问题：

Who's going to be sure?

谁能确定？

Who's going to guarantee

谁来保证

something that is literally billions of times larger

实际上是大数十亿倍的东西

than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things?

比您想到的核废料或其他废料中的任何类型的废料还要多吗？

This is a lot of volume.

这是一个很大的体积。

So that's a tough one.

所以这是一项艰难的任务。

Next would be nuclear.

接下来将是核。

It also has three big problems:

它还存在三大问题：

cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high;

成本很高，特别是在监管严格的国家；

the issue of safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong,

安全问题，真的感觉很好，不会出问题，

that, even though you have these human operators,

即使你有这些人类操作员，

the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.

燃料不会用于武器。

And then what do you do with the waste?

然后你如何处理废物呢？

Although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that.

尽管规模不是很大，但人们对此的担忧却很多。

People need to feel good about it.

人们需要对此感觉良好。

So three very tough problems that might be solvable,

所以三个非常棘手的问题可能是可以解决的

and so, should be worked on.

因此，应该继续努力。

The last three of the five, I've grouped together.

这五个中的最后三个，我组合在一起。

These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources.

这些就是人们通常所说的可再生资源。

And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel --

事实上，尽管它们不需要燃料，这很好——

they have some disadvantages.

它们有一些缺点。

One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies

一是这些技术中聚集的能量密度

is dramatically less than a power plant.

比发电厂小得多。

This is energy farming,

这是能源农业，

so you're talking about many square miles, thousands of times more area

所以你说的是很多平方英里，是数千倍的面积

than you think of as a normal energy plant.

比你想象的普通能源植物要多。

Also, these are intermittent sources.

此外，这些都是间歇性来源。

The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day,

太阳不是整天都照耀，也不是每天都照耀，

and likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time.

同样，风也不会一直吹。

And so, if you depend on these sources,

所以，如果你依赖这些来源，

you have to have some way of getting the energy

你必须有某种方式来获取能量

during those time periods that it's not available.

在这些时间段内它不可用。

So we've got big cost challenges here.

因此，我们面临着巨大的成本挑战。

We have transmission challenges;

我们面临传输挑战；

for example, say this energy source is outside your country,

例如，假设该能源位于您所在国家/地区之外，

you not only need the technology,

你不仅需要技术，

but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.

但你必须应对来自其他地方的能量的风险。

And, finally, this storage problem.

最后，这个存储问题。

To dimensionalize this,

为了对此进行维度化，

I went through and looked at all the types of batteries made --

我仔细研究了所有类型的电池——

for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything --

用于汽车、电脑、手机、手电筒，以及一切——

and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses.

并将其与世界使用的电能进行比较。

What I found is that all the batteries we make now

我发现我们现在生产的所有电池

could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy.

可以储存不到10分钟的全部能量。

And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here,

所以，事实上，我们需要一个重大突破，

something that's going to be a factor of 100 better

会好100倍的东西

than the approaches we have now.

比我们现在的方法。

It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing.

这并非不可能，但也不是一件非常容易的事情。

Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source

现在，当您尝试获取间歇源时，就会出现此情况

to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using.

比方说，高于您正在使用的 20% 到 30%。

If you're counting on it for 100 percent,

如果你百分百相信它，

you need an incredible miracle battery.

你需要一块令人难以置信的神奇电池。

Now, how are we going to go forward on this -- what's the right approach?

现在，我们将如何推进这个问题——正确的方法是什么？

Is it a Manhattan Project?

这是曼哈顿计划吗？

What's the thing that can get us there?

有什么东西可以让我们到达那里？

Well, we need lots of companies working on this -- hundreds.

嗯，我们需要很多公司致力于此——数百家。

In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people.

这五条路，每条路都至少需要一百人。

A lot of them, you'll look at and say, "They're crazy."

他们中的很多人，你会看着并说，“他们疯了。”

And, I think, here in the TED group,

而且，我认为，在 TED 小组中，

we have many people who are already pursuing this.

我们有很多人已经在追求这个目标。

Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar

比尔·格罗斯 (Bill Gross) 拥有多家公司，其中包括一家名为 eSolar 的公司

that has some great solar thermal technologies.

拥有一些出色的太阳能热技术。

Vinod Khosla is investing in dozens of companies

Vinod Khosla 正在投资数十家公司

that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities,

正在做伟大的事情并且有有趣的可能性，

and I'm trying to help back that.

我正在努力帮助实现这一目标。

Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company

内森·梅尔沃德和我实际上正在支持一家公司

that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach.

也许令人惊讶的是，这实际上是在采取核方法。

There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid.

核能有一些创新：模块化、液体。

Innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago,

这个行业的创新其实很久以前就停止了，

so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around

所以我认为有一些好主意

is not all that surprising.

这并不奇怪。

The idea of TerraPower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium --

TerraPower 的想法是，与其燃烧一部分铀——

the one percent, which is the U235 --

百分之一，即 U235——

we decided, "Let's burn the 99 percent, the U238."

我们决定，“让我们烧掉 99%，U238。”

It is kind of a crazy idea.

这是一个疯狂的想法。

In fact, people had talked about it for a long time,

事实上，人们已经讨论了很长时间，

but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not,

但他们永远无法正确模拟它是否有效，

and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers

所以这是通过现代超级计算机的出现

that now you can simulate and see that, yes,

现在你可以模拟并看到，是的，

with the right materials approach, this looks like it would work.

如果采用正确的材料方法，这看起来会起作用。

And because you're burning that 99 percent,

因为你燃烧了百分之九十九的能量，

you have greatly improved cost profile.

您的成本状况得到了极大的改善。

You actually burn up the waste, and you can actually use as fuel

你实际上燃烧了废物，并且实际上可以用作燃料

all the leftover waste from today's reactors.

当今反应堆产生的所有剩余废物。

So instead of worrying about them, you just take that, it's a great thing.

所以不用担心他们，你只需接受它，这是一件很棒的事情。

It breeds this uranium as it goes along, so it's kind of like a candle.

它在运行过程中会产生铀，所以它有点像蜡烛。

You see it's a log there, often referred to as a traveling wave reactor.

你看到那里有一根圆木，通常被称为行波反应堆。

In terms of fuel, this really solves the problem.

就燃料而言，这确实解决了问题。

I've got a picture here of a place in Kentucky.

我这里有一张肯塔基州某个地方的照片。

This is the leftover, the 99 percent,

这是剩下的，99%，

where they've taken out the part they burn now,

他们已经把现在烧毁的部分取出来了

so it's called depleted uranium.

所以它被称为贫铀。

That would power the US for hundreds of years.

这将为美国提供数百年的电力。

And simply by filtering seawater in an inexpensive process,

只需通过廉价的过程过滤海水，

you'd have enough fuel for the entire lifetime of the rest of the planet.

你将拥有足够地球其他部分一生所需的燃料。

So, you know, it's got lots of challenges ahead,

所以，你知道，前面还有很多挑战，

but it is an example of the many hundreds and hundreds of ideas

但这是成百上千个想法的一个例子

that we need to move forward.

我们需要继续前进。

So let's think: How should we measure ourselves?

那么我们想一想：我们应该如何衡量自己？

What should our report card look like?

我们的成绩单应该是什么样的？

Well, let's go out to where we really need to get,

好吧，让我们去我们真正需要去的地方吧，

and then look at the intermediate.

然后看中间。

For 2050, you've heard many people talk about this 80 percent reduction.

对于 2050 年，您已经听到很多人谈论减少 80%。

That really is very important, that we get there.

我们到达那里确实非常重要。

And that 20 percent will be used up by things going on in poor countries --

这 20% 将被贫穷国家发生的事情所用——

still some agriculture; hopefully, we will have cleaned up forestry, cement.

还有一些农业；希望我们能够清理林业和水泥。

So, to get to that 80 percent,

所以，要达到 80%，

the developed countries, including countries like China,

发达国家，包括中国这样的国家，

will have had to switch their electricity generation altogether.

将不得不完全改变他们的发电方式。

The other grade is: Are we deploying this zero-emission technology,

另一个等级是：我们是否正在部署这种零排放技术，

have we deployed it in all the developed countries

我们是否在所有发达国家都部署了它

and are in the process of getting it elsewhere?

正在从其他地方获取它吗？

That's super important.

这非常重要。

That's a key element of making that report card.

这是制作成绩单的关键要素。

Backing up from there, what should the 2020 report card look like?

从那里回溯，2020 年的成绩单应该是什么样子？

Well, again, it should have the two elements.

好吧，再说一遍，它应该具有这两个元素。

We should go through these efficiency measures to start getting reductions:

我们应该通过这些效率措施来开始减排：

The less we emit, the less that sum will be of CO2,

我们排放的越少，二氧化碳的总量就越少，

and therefore, the less the temperature.

因此，温度越低。

But in some ways, the grade we get there,

但在某些方面，我们取得的成绩，

doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions,

做一些无法让我们一路大幅削减的事情，

is only equally, or maybe even slightly less, important than the other,

只是与另一个同等重要，甚至可能稍微不那么重要，

which is the piece of innovation on these breakthroughs.

这就是这些突破的创新之处。

These breakthroughs, we need to move those at full speed,

这些突破，我们需要全速推进，

and we can measure that in terms of companies,

我们可以用公司来衡量，

pilot projects, regulatory things that have been changed.

试点项目、监管方面已经发生了变化。

There's a lot of great books that have been written about this.

有很多关于这方面的好书。

The Al Gore book, "Our Choice,"

阿尔·戈尔的书《我们的选择》

and the David MacKay book, "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air."

以及大卫·麦凯的书《没有热空气的可持续能源》。

They really go through it and create a framework

他们真正经历过并创建了一个框架

that this can be discussed broadly,

这可以广泛讨论，

because we need broad backing for this.

因为我们需要广泛的支持。

There's a lot that has to come together.

有很多事情必须结合在一起。

It's a very concrete wish that we invent this technology.

我们发明这项技术是一个非常具体的愿望。

If you gave me only one wish for the next 50 years --

如果你在接下来的50年里只给我一个愿望——

I could pick who's president,

我可以选择谁当总统

I could pick a vaccine, which is something I love,

我可以选择一种疫苗，这是我喜欢的东西，

or I could pick that this thing

或者我可以选择这个东西

that's half the cost with no CO2 gets invented --

如果没有发明二氧化碳，成本就只有一半——

this is the wish I would pick.

这是我会选择的愿望。

This is the one with the greatest impact.

这是影响最大的一个。

If we don't get this wish,

如果我们达不到这个愿望

the division between the people who think short term and long term

短期思考者和长期思考者之间的分歧

between the US and China, between poor countries and rich,

美国和中国之间，穷国和富国之间，

the lives of those two billion will be far worse.

这20亿人的生活将会更加糟糕。

So what do we have to do?

那么我们该怎么办呢？

What am I appealing to you to step forward and drive?

我呼吁你向前迈进并推动什么？

We need to go for more research funding.

我们需要争取更多的研究经费。

When countries get together in places like Copenhagen,

当各国聚集在哥本哈根这样的地方时，

they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.

他们不应该只讨论二氧化碳。

They should discuss this innovation agenda.

他们应该讨论这个创新议程。

You'd be stunned at the ridiculously low levels of spending

你会对低得离谱的支出水平感到震惊

on these innovative approaches.

关于这些创新方法。

We do need the market incentives -- CO2 tax, cap and trade --

我们确实需要市场激励措施——二氧化碳税、限额与交易——

something that gets that price signal out there.

能够发出价格信号的东西。

We need to get the message out.

我们需要传达信息。

We need to have this dialogue be a more rational,

我们需要让这种对话更加理性，

more understandable dialogue,

更容易理解的对话，

including the steps that the government takes.

包括政府采取的措施。

This is an important wish, but it is one I think we can achieve.

这是一个重要的愿望，但我认为我们可以实现。

Chris Anderson: Thank you.

克里斯·安德森：谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

So to understand more about TerraPower.

所以要更多地了解TerraPower。

I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale of investment this is?

我的意思是，首先，您能否介绍一下这是多大的投资规模？

Bill Gates: To actually do the software, buy the supercomputer,

比尔·盖茨：要真正做软件，就买超级计算机，

hire all the great scientists, which we've done,

聘请所有伟大的科学家，我们已经做到了，

that's only tens of millions.

那只是几千万。

And even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor

即使我们在俄罗斯反应堆中测试了我们的材料

to make sure our materials work properly,

确保我们的材料正常工作，

then you'll only be up in the hundreds of millions.

那么你的财富就只有几亿了。

The tough thing is building the pilot reactor --

困难的事情是建造试验反应堆——

finding the several billion, finding the regulator, the location

找到几十亿，找到监管者，找到位置

that will actually build the first one of these.

这实际上将构建其中的第一个。

Once you get the first one built, if it works as advertised,

一旦你建造了第一个，如果它像宣传的那样工作，

then it's just clear as day,

然后一切就如白昼一样清晰

because the economics, the energy density, are so different

因为经济、能量密度是如此不同

than nuclear as we know it.

比我们所知的核能更重要。

this involves building deep into the ground,

这涉及到深入地下的建设，

almost like a vertical column of nuclear fuel, of this spent uranium,

几乎就像一个垂直的核燃料柱，这种废铀，

and then the process starts at the top and kind of works down?

然后这个过程从顶部开始然后向下进行？

Today, you're always refueling the reactor,

今天，你总是在给反应堆补充燃料，

so you have lots of people and lots of controls that can go wrong,

所以你有很多人和很多控制措施可能会出错，

where you're opening it up and moving things in and out --

你打开它并把东西移进移出的地方——

So if you have very --

所以如果你有非常——

very cheap fuel that you can put 60 years in --

非常便宜的燃料，可以使用 60 年——

just think of it as a log --

只要把它想象成一个日志——

put it down and not have those same complexities.

放下它，就不会遇到同样的复杂性。

And it just sits there and burns for the 60 years, and then it's done.

它就在那里燃烧了 60 年，然后就完成了。

you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste under this approach --

你可以让它坐在那里——这种方法可以减少很多浪费——

then you can actually take that

那么你实际上可以接受

and put it into another one and burn that.

然后把它放进另一个并烧掉它。

And we start out, actually, by taking the waste that exists today

实际上，我们从处理当今存在的废物开始

that's sitting in these cooling pools or dry-casking by reactors --

它位于这些冷却池或反应堆的干桶中——

that's our fuel to begin with.

这就是我们的燃料。

So the thing that's been a problem from those reactors

所以那些反应堆一直存在的问题

is actually what gets fed into ours,

实际上是被输入到我们的东西中，

and you're reducing the volume of the waste quite dramatically

并且你大大减少了废物量

as you're going through this process.

当你正在经历这个过程时。

about the possibilities.

关于可能性。

Where is there most interest in actually doing something with this?

对此实际做某事最感兴趣的地方在哪里？

and there's all these interesting disclosure rules

还有所有这些有趣的披露规则

about anything that's called "nuclear."

关于任何所谓“核”的东西。

So we've got a lot of interest.

所以我们有很大的兴趣。

People from the company have been in Russia, India, China.

公司人员曾去过俄罗斯、印度、中国。

I've been back seeing the secretary of energy here,

我回来见过能源部长

talking about how this fits into the energy agenda.

谈论这如何融入能源议程。

The French and Japanese have done some work.

法国人和日本人已经做了一些工作。

This is a variant on something that has been done.

这是已经完成的事情的变体。

It's an important advance, but it's like a fast reactor,

这是一个重要的进步，但它就像一个快反应堆，

and a lot of countries have built them,

很多国家都建造了它们，

so anybody who's done a fast reactor is a candidate

所以任何做过快堆的人都是候选人

to be where the first one gets built.

是第一个建成的地方。

timescale and likelihood of actually taking something like this live?

实际拍摄这样的东西的时间尺度和可能性？

we have 20 years to invent and then 20 years to deploy.

我们有 20 年的时间来发明，然后还有 20 年的时间来部署。

That's sort of the deadline

这就是最后期限

that the environmental models have shown us that we have to meet.

环境模型告诉我们，我们必须满足这一要求。

And TerraPower -- if things go well, which is wishing for a lot --

还有 TerraPower——如果一切顺利的话，这是我们所希望的——

could easily meet that.

很容易就能满足这一点。

And there are, fortunately now, dozens of companies --

幸运的是，现在有数十家公司——

we need it to be hundreds --

我们需要数百个——

who, likewise, if their science goes well,

同样，如果他们的科学进展顺利，

if the funding for their pilot plants goes well,

如果他们的试点工厂的资金进展顺利

that they can compete for this.

他们可以为此竞争。

And it's best if multiple succeed,

最好是多次成功

because then you could use a mix of these things.

因为这样你就可以混合使用这些东西。

We certainly need one to succeed.

我们当然需要一个人才能成功。

is this the biggest that you're aware of out there?

这是你所知道的最大的吗？

It would have been, even without the environmental constraint,

即使没有环境限制，

but the environmental constraint just makes it so much greater.

但环境限制让它变得更加严重。

In the nuclear space, there are other innovators.

在核领域，还有其他创新者。

You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one,

你知道，我们不像了解这个那样了解他们的工作，

but the modular people, that's a different approach.

但对于模块化的人来说，这是一种不同的方法。

There's a liquid-type reactor, which seems a little hard,

有一个液体式反应器，看起来有点硬，

but maybe they say that about us.

但也许他们是这样评价我们的。

And so, there are different ones,

所以，有不同的，

but the beauty of this is a molecule of uranium

但这的美妙之处在于铀分子

has a million times as much energy as a molecule of, say, coal.

其能量是煤分子的一百万倍。

And so, if you can deal with the negatives,

所以，如果你能处理好负面的事情，

which are essentially the radiation, the footprint and cost,

本质上是辐射、占地面积和成本，

the potential, in terms of effect on land and various things,

就对土地和各种事物的影响而言，潜力，

is almost in a class of its own.

几乎自成一类。

Do we have to start taking emergency measures

我们是否必须开始采取紧急措施

to try and keep the temperature of the earth stable?

试图保持地球温度稳定？

it's like if you've been overeating, and you're about to have a heart attack.

就好像你吃得过多，心脏病就要发作一样。

Then where do you go?

那你去哪里？

You may need heart surgery or something.

您可能需要进行心脏手术或其他手术。

There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering,

有一系列关于所谓的地球工程的研究，

which are various techniques that would delay the heating

有多种延迟加热的技术

to buy us 20 or 30 years to get our act together.

为我们赢得 20 或 30 年的时间来齐心协力。

Now, that's just an insurance policy; you hope you don't need to do that.

现在，这只是一份保险单；你希望你不需要这样做。

Some people say you shouldn't even work on the insurance policy

有些人说你甚至不应该为保险单工作

because it might make you lazy,

因为它可能会让你变得懒惰，

that you'll keep eating because you know heart surgery will be there to save you.

你会继续吃东西，因为你知道心脏手术可以拯救你。

I'm not sure that's wise, given the importance of the problem,

考虑到问题的重要性，我不确定这是否明智

but there's now the geoengineering discussion

但现在有关于地球工程的讨论

about: Should that be in the back pocket in case things happen faster,

关于：应该放在后面的口袋里，以防事情发生得更快，

or this innovation goes a lot slower than we expect?

或者这种创新比我们预期的要慢得多？

If you had a sentence or two to say to them,

如果你有一两句话要对他们说

how might you persuade them that they're wrong?

你怎样才能说服他们他们错了？

The ones who make scientific arguments are very few.

提出科学论证的人很少。

Are they saying there's negative feedback effects

他们是说有负反馈效应吗

that have to do with clouds that offset things?

这与抵消事物的云有关吗？

There are very, very few things that they can even say

他们甚至能说的事情非常非常少

there's a chance in a million of those things.

有一百万个这样的事情都有机会。

The main problem we have here -- it's kind of like with AIDS:

我们这里面临的主要问题——有点像艾滋病：

you make the mistake now, and you pay for it a lot later.

你现在犯了错误，以后会付出惨重的代价。

And so, when you have all sorts of urgent problems,

所以，当你遇到各种紧急问题时，

the idea of taking pain now that has to do with a gain later,

现在承受痛苦的想法与以后的收获有关，

and a somewhat uncertain pain thing.

还有一种有点不确定的痛苦。

In fact, the IPCC report -- that's not necessarily the worst case,

事实上，IPCC 的报告——这不一定是最坏的情况，

and there are people in the rich world who look at IPCC and say,

富裕国家的一些人看着 IPCC 说，

"OK, that isn't that big of a deal."

“好吧，这没什么大不了的。”

The fact is it's that uncertain part that should move us towards this.

事实上，正是这个不确定的部分促使我们走向这一目标。

But my dream here is that,

但我的梦想是，

if you can make it economic, and meet the CO2 constraints,

如果你能让它变得经济，并满足二氧化碳排放限制，

then the skeptics say,

然后怀疑论者说，

"OK, I don't care that it doesn't put out CO2,

“好吧，我不在乎它是否会释放二氧化碳，

I kind of wish it did put out CO2.

我有点希望它确实能排出二氧化碳。

But I guess I'll accept it,

但我想我会接受

because it's cheaper than what's come before."

因为它比以前便宜。”

basically if you spend all this energy trying to solve the CO2 problem,

基本上如果你花费所有这些精力来解决二氧化碳问题

it's going to take away all your other goals

它会夺走你所有的其他目标

of trying to rid the world of poverty and malaria and so forth,

努力让世界摆脱贫困和疟疾等，

it's a stupid waste of the Earth's resources

这是对地球资源的愚蠢浪费

to put money towards that

投入资金

when there are better things we can do.

当我们可以做更好的事情时。

say the US should spend 10 billion a year more than it is right now --

说美国每年应该比现在多花 100 亿美元——

it's not that dramatic.

事情并没有那么戏剧性。

It shouldn't take away from other things.

它不应该剥夺其他东西。

The thing you get into big money on, and reasonable people can disagree,

你赚大钱的事情，理性的人可能会不同意，

is when you have something that's non-economic

就是当你拥有非经济的东西时

and you're trying to fund that --

而你正试图为此提供资金——

that, to me, mostly is a waste.

对我来说，这基本上是一种浪费。

Unless you're very close,

除非你们关系很亲密

and you're just funding the learning curve and it's going to get very cheap,

你只是为学习曲线提供资金，而且它会变得非常便宜，

I believe we should try more things

我相信我们应该尝试更多的事情

that have a potential to be far less expensive.

有可能便宜得多。

If the trade-off you get into is, "Let's make energy super expensive,"

如果你面临的权衡是“让我们让能源变得超级昂贵”

then the rich can afford that.

那么富人就可以负担得起。

I mean, all of us here could pay five times as much for our energy

我的意思是，我们这里所有人都可以为能源付出五倍的代价

and not change our lifestyle.

而不改变我们的生活方式。

The disaster is for that two billion.

这场灾难是针对那二十亿人的。

And even Lomborg has changed.

甚至连隆堡也发生了变化。

His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R\u0026amp;D getting more discussed?"

他现在的伎俩是：“为什么研发没有得到更多讨论？”

He's still, because of his earlier stuff,

他仍然，因为他早期的事情，

still associated with the skeptic camp,

仍然与怀疑论阵营有联系，

but he's realized that's a pretty lonely camp,

但他意识到那是一个相当孤独的营地

and so, he's making the R\u0026amp;D point.

因此，他提出了研发观点。

And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate.

所以有一个我认为合适的线索。

The R\u0026amp;D piece -- it's crazy how little it's funded.

研发部分——资金如此之少真是太疯狂了。

to say I really hope your wish comes true.

说我真的希望你的愿望成真。