How Latino Voters Are Experiencing the 2026 Midterm Elections
This Pew Research Center analysis focuses on Latino registered voters and the 2026 midterm election.
皮尤研究中心的这份分析重点关注拉丁裔登记选民和 2026 年中期选举。
Pew Research Center conducts research to inform the public, journalists and decision-makers.
皮尤研究中心开展研究，为公众、记者和决策者提供信息。
This analysis builds on a larger body of work that explores the views and attitudes of Latino voters in U.S. elections and the attitudes and experiences of Latinos in the United States.
这项分析建立在更广泛的工作基础上，探讨了美国选举中拉丁裔选民的观点和态度以及美国拉丁裔的态度和经历。
Learn more about Pew Research Center , our research on Hispanics in the U.S. and other research on race and ethnicity .
详细了解皮尤研究中心、我们对美国西班牙裔的研究以及其他有关种族和民族的研究。
We surveyed 5,062 U.S. adults, including 774 Hispanic registered voters, from Sept.
自 9 月 10 日起，我们对 5,062 名美国成年人进行了调查，其中包括 774 名西班牙裔登记选民。
28 to Oct.
28日至10月
4, 2026.
2026 年 4 月。
Everyone who took this survey is part of the Center’s American Trends Panel .
每个参与这项调查的人都是该中心美国趋势小组的成员。
The survey was conducted in English and Spanish and represents the views of the full U.S. adult population.
该调查以英语和西班牙语进行，代表了美国全体成年人口的观点。
Read more about the ATP’s methodology .
阅读有关 ATP 方法的更多信息。
Here are the questions used for this analysis , detailed responses and the survey methodology .
以下是本次分析中使用的问题、详细答复和调查方法。
In a previous survey, respondents were asked a question about their voter registration status.
在之前的一项调查中，受访者被问及有关其选民登记状况的问题。
In this report, respondents are considered registered voters if they self-report being absolutely certain they are registered at their current address.
在本报告中，如果受访者自我报告完全确定自己在当前地址登记，则被视为登记选民。
Respondents are considered not registered to vote if they report not being registered or express uncertainty about their registration.
如果受访者报告未登记或对其登记表示不确定，则被视为未登记投票。
The terms “registered voters” and “voters” are used interchangeably in this report.
“登记选民”和“选民”这两个术语在本报告中可以互换使用。
This analysis includes comparisons between Latino registered voters and other registered voters.
该分析包括拉丁裔登记选民和其他登记选民之间的比较。
In these cases, the terms other registered voters or other voters refer to those who are not Latino.
在这些情况下，“其他登记选民”或“其他选民”一词是指非拉丁裔选民。
Validated voters are adult citizens who told us in a postelection survey that they voted in a given general election and have a record of voting in a commercial voter file.
经过验证的选民是在选举后调查中告诉我们他们在特定大选中投票并在商业选民档案中拥有投票记录的成年公民。
Trump voters are validated voters who self-reported that they voted for Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
特朗普选民是经过验证的选民，他们自我报告称自己在 2024 年总统选举中投票给了共和党人唐纳德·特朗普。
Harris voters are validated voters who self-reported that they voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
哈里斯选民是经过验证的选民，他们自我报告称自己在 2024 年总统选举中投票给了民主党人卡马拉·哈里斯。
Several weeks out from the 2026 midterm election, Democratic congressional candidates have a sizable advantage among Latino registered voters.
距离 2026 年中期选举还有几周时间，民主党国会候选人在拉丁裔登记选民中拥有相当大的优势。
And while not all registered voters will cast ballots this year, Latino Democratic candidate supporters are more engaged with this year’s election compared with four years ago.
尽管并非所有登记选民今年都会投票，但与四年前相比，拉丁裔民主党候选人支持者对今年选举的参与度更高。
Meanwhile, Latino voters who support Republican congressional candidates show lower levels of engagement this year compared with Latino voters supporting Democratic candidates.
与此同时，与支持民主党候选人的拉丁裔选民相比，今年支持共和党国会候选人的拉丁裔选民的参与度较低。
Latino registered voters overall are more engaged in this year’s election than they were at a similar point before the 2022 midterms.
总体而言，与 2022 年中期选举之前的类似情况相比，拉丁裔登记选民对今年选举的参与度更高。
Their current level of interest is similar to other registered voters.
他们目前的兴趣水平与其他登记选民相似。
By contrast, in 2022, Latino voters were less engaged than other voters .
相比之下，2022 年，拉丁裔选民的参与度低于其他选民。
Latino voters have historically favored Democratic over Republican candidates in midterm elections, but the margin has narrowed in recent years: In 2022 , Latino voters backed Democrats over Republicans by a 21 percentage point margin, down from a 47-point margin in 2018.
历史上，拉丁裔选民在中期选举中对民主党候选人的支持率高于共和党候选人，但近年来，这一差距有所缩小：2022 年，拉丁裔选民对民主党的支持率比共和党高出 21 个百分点，低于 2018 年的 47 个百分点。
Trump also made gains among Latino voters in presidential elections between 2016 and 2024, winning nearly half their votes two years ago .
特朗普还在2016年至2024年的总统选举中赢得了拉丁裔选民的支持，两年前赢得了近一半的选票。
Previous Pew Research Center studies have found that differences in who turns out to vote , rather than voters switching their support between parties, have played a role in these shifts.
皮尤研究中心之前的研究发现，在这些转变中发挥作用的是投票人数的差异，而不是选民在政党之间改变支持。
Two years into the second Trump administration, the president’s standing with Latino voters has deteriorated.
特朗普第二届政府执政两年后，总统在拉丁裔选民中的地位已经恶化。
His current job approval rating among Latino voters, at 24%, is down from 38% in February 2025.
目前他在拉丁裔选民中的工作支持率为 24%，低于 2025 年 2 月的 38%。
And majorities of Latino voters say the Trump administration’s policies harm Hispanics more than help them and that their situation as a group is worse than a year ago.
大多数拉丁裔选民表示，特朗普政府的政策对拉美裔的伤害多于对他们的帮助，他们作为一个群体的处境比一年前更糟糕。
(Jump to “ Trump’s falling job approval rating among Latino registered voters.
（跳转至“特朗普在拉丁裔登记选民中的工作支持率下降。
”)
”）
The economy remains the top issue for Latino voters, who have grown more negative about economic conditions and are increasingly concerned about the cost of gas and unemployment.
经济仍然是拉丁裔选民的首要问题，他们对经济状况越来越消极，并且越来越担心天然气成本和失业。
( Jump to “The Economy Is the Top Issue for Latino Voters in the 2026 Midterms.” )
（跳转至“经济是 2026 年中期选举中拉丁裔选民的首要问题。”）
These findings come from a new Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults, including 774 Hispanic registered voters, conducted from Sept.
这些发现来自皮尤研究中心自 9 月 10 日起对美国成年人（包括 774 名西班牙裔登记选民）进行的一项新调查。
28 to Oct.
28日至10月
4, 2026.
2026 年 4 月。
Donald Trump’s job approval rating as president has declined substantially among Hispanics voters who backed him in 2024: 57% approve of his job performance, down from 93% at the beginning of his second term.
唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 作为总统的工作支持率在 2024 年支持他的拉美裔选民中大幅下降：57% 的人认可他的工作表现，低于第二任期之初的 93%。
Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 are split over whether his policies help or harm Latinos overall (32% vs. 37%).
2024 年支持特朗普的拉丁裔选民对于他的政策对整个拉丁裔有利还是有害存在分歧（32% 与 37%）。
At the same time, their views of economy have worsened: 34% now rate economic conditions as excellent or good, down from 57% at the start of the year.
与此同时，他们对经济的看法也恶化了：现在有 34% 的人将经济状况评为优秀或良好，低于年初的 57%。
On immigration enforcement, 30% of Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024 say his administration is doing too much on deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally.
在移民执法方面，2024 年支持特朗普的拉美裔选民中有 30% 表示，他的政府在驱逐非法居住在美国的移民方面做得太多。
Still, a majority say it is either striking the right balance in their approach or not doing enough.
尽管如此，大多数人表示要么在他们的方法中取得了适当的平衡，要么做得不够。
When it comes to this year’s midterms, about two-thirds (65%) of Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024 say they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district if the congressional election were held today.
谈到今年的中期选举，在 2024 年支持特朗普的拉美裔选民中，约三分之二 (65%) 表示，如果今天举行国会选举，他们将投票给所在选区的共和党候选人。
Meanwhile, 24% say they would support another candidate or are not sure whom they would support.
与此同时，24% 的人表示他们会支持另一位候选人或不确定他们会支持谁。
And 11% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their House race.
11% 的人表示他们会在众议院竞选中投票给民主党候选人。
Democrats hold a 27 percentage point advantage over Republicans among all Hispanic registered voters in the national race for the House of Representatives – 51% to 24%.
在全国众议院竞选中，在所有拉美裔登记选民中，民主党比共和党领先 27 个百分点——51% 比 24%。
Another 18% say they are not sure who they would vote for, and an additional 7% indicate they would support another candidate.
另外 18% 的人表示他们不确定会投票给谁，另外 7% 的人表示他们会支持另一位候选人。
According to the new survey, 65% of Hispanic voters who voted for Trump in 2024 say they support the Republican House candidate this year.
最新调查显示，2024 年投票给特朗普的拉美裔选民中有 65% 表示今年支持这位共和党众议院候选人。
Another 14% say they would vote for another candidate, 11% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate, and 10% say they’re not sure whom they would vote for.
另外 14% 的人表示他们会投票给另一位候选人，11% 的人表示他们会投票给民主党候选人，10% 的人表示他们不确定会投票给谁。
Meanwhile, 84% of Hispanic voters who supported Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024 say they back the Democratic House candidate this year.
与此同时，在 2024 年支持民主党卡马拉·哈里斯的拉美裔选民中，84% 表示他们今年支持民主党众议院候选人。
Among those who did not vote in 2024, 47% say they would choose the Democratic candidate and 18% the Republican candidate.
在2024年没有投票的人中，47%的人表示他们会选择民主党候选人，18%的人表示会选择共和党候选人。
An additional 31% say they are unsure who they would vote for, while 4% favor another candidate.
另外 31% 的人表示他们不确定会投票给谁，而 4% 的人则倾向于另一位候选人。
For more information, visit the detailed tables on voting preferences and presidential approval .
欲了解更多信息，请访问有关投票偏好和总统批准的详细表格。
( Jump to “ Latino Registered Voters See the Democratic Party More Favorably Than the Republican Party .” )
（跳转至“拉丁裔登记选民对民主党的看法比共和党更有利。”）
For this survey, respondents were presented with the names and partisan affiliations of the major-party candidates on the ballot in their congressional district, based on geographic information they provided.
在这项调查中，根据受访者提供的地理信息，向受访者提供了其国会选区选票上主要政党候选人的姓名和党派关系。
They were also presented with options to choose “another candidate” or say they were not sure.
他们还可以选择选择“另一位候选人”或表示不确定。
Respondents in Alaska (where there are four candidates on the general election ballot ), Missouri (where a late change to the congressional map has resulted in an open, majority-vote primary held in November), and Louisiana received generic Republican and Democratic candidate choices.
阿拉斯加州（大选选票上有四名候选人）、密苏里州（国会地图的最新变化导致 11 月举行公开多数票初选）和路易斯安那州的受访者收到了共和党和民主党候选人的通用选择。
In districts where one of the two major parties did not field a candidate, respondents were given the option to choose a generic member of the party opposite the named candidate in their district.
在两个主要政党之一没有派出候选人的地区，受访者可以选择选择与所在地区指定候选人相反的政党的一般成员。
A majority of Latino registered voters (55%) say they think of their vote for Congress this fall as a vote against Trump.
大多数拉丁裔登记选民（55%）表示，他们认为今年秋天对国会的投票是对特朗普的投票。
Another 14% say their vote is in support of him, while 30% say he is not much of a factor.
另外 14% 的人表示他们的投票支持他，而 30% 的人表示他的影响不大。
This is a substantial change from four years ago, when 26% of Latino voters viewed their vote as support for Joe Biden and 23% viewed it as opposition to him.
与四年前相比，这是一个巨大的变化，当时 26% 的拉丁裔选民认为他们的投票支持乔·拜登，23% 的选民认为他们反对他。
About half (48%) said he was not a factor in their congressional vote choice.
大约一半（48%）表示他不是他们国会投票选择的因素。
Hispanic voters who back a Republican candidate are about equally likely to say their vote for Congress is a vote for Trump or that Trump is not much of a factor for their vote (46% each).
支持共和党候选人的拉美裔选民也同样可能表示，他们对国会的投票就是对特朗普的投票，或者特朗普并不是他们投票的重要因素（各占 46%）。
Only 7% say they think about their vote as a vote against Trump.
只有 7% 的人表示，他们认为自己的投票是反对特朗普的。
A strong majority (84%) of Hispanic voters who say they support a Democratic candidate for Congress this year view their vote as opposition to Trump.
在表示支持今年国会民主党候选人的拉美裔选民中，绝大多数（84%）认为他们的投票是对特朗普的反对。
And 14% say Trump is not a factor in their vote for Congress.
14% 的人表示特朗普不是他们投票给国会的因素。
Among Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024, 35% say their vote for Congress this year is a vote for the president.
在2024年支持特朗普的拉美裔选民中，35%的人表示，他们今年对国会的投票就是对总统的投票。
Yet 19% view their vote as opposition to Trump.
然而，19% 的人认为他们的投票是反对特朗普的。
Another 46% say he is not much of a factor in their vote choice.
另有 46% 的人表示，他在他们的投票选择中并没有多大影响。
Today, 24% of Latino registered voters say they approve of Trump’s handling of his job as president.
如今，24% 的拉丁裔登记选民表示，他们支持特朗普处理总统工作的方式。
This number has fallen 14 percentage points from the start of his second term, when 38% approved of his job.
这个数字比他第二个任期开始时下降了 14 个百分点，当时 38% 的人认可他的工作。
The president’s job approval rating has fallen more sharply among his 2024 Hispanic voters.
2024 年拉美裔选民对总统的工作支持率下降幅度更大。
At the start of his second term, 93% said they approved of his job as president.
在他的第二个任期开始时，93% 的人表示他们认可他担任总统的工作。
Now, 57% say this – a decline of 36 percentage points.
现在，57% 的人这么说——下降了 36 个百分点。
Approval has also fallen among Trump’s 2024 non-Hispanic backers, though less sharply.
特朗普2024年非拉美裔支持者的支持率也有所下降，但幅度没有那么大。
In February 2025 , 95% approved of his job performance, compared with 68% today.
2025 年 2 月，95% 的人认可他的工作表现，而今天这一比例为 68%。
Seven-in-ten Hispanic registered voters (70%) say the Trump administration’s policies have been harmful to Hispanics, while 12% say they have been helpful and 16% say they have had no effect.
十分之七的西班牙裔登记选民 (70%) 表示特朗普政府的政策对西班牙裔有害，而 12% 的人表示这些政策有帮助，16% 的人表示这些政策没有效果。
This is similar to their assessment from a year ago, when 74% said the administration’s policies were harmful to Hispanics.
这与他们一年前的评估类似，当时 74% 的人表示政府的政策对西班牙裔有害。
Today, views differ sharply by how Hispanic registered voters say they will vote in the House election:
如今，西班牙裔登记选民对众议院选举投票的看法存在巨大差异：
About six-in-ten Hispanic registered voters (61%) say the situation of Hispanics in the United States is worse than it was a year ago, while 11% say it is better and 26% say it is about the same.
大约十分之六的拉美裔登记选民 (61%) 表示，美国拉美裔的处境比一年前更糟糕，而 11% 的人表示情况有所好转，26% 的人表示情况大致相同。
The share who say Latinos’ situation in the U.S. is worse than a year ago is roughly the same as the share that said this a year ago (65%).
认为美国拉美裔的情况比一年前更糟糕的比例与一年前的比例大致相同 (65%)。
However, the reference periods differ.
然而，参考期不同。
This year’s assessment asks respondents to compare the situation today with the first year of Trump’s second administration.
今年的评估要求受访者将今天的情况与特朗普第二届政府第一年进行比较。
Last year, they were comparing the first year of Trump’s second administration to the final year of the Biden administration.
去年，他们将特朗普第二届政府的第一年与拜登政府的最后一年进行了比较。
This year’s negative assessment of Hispanics’ situation remains far above previous years: In 2021, only 28% said Hispanics’ situation had worsened in the previous year, and in 2019, 42% said this.
今年对拉美裔处境的负面评价仍远高于往年：2021年，只有28%的人表示拉美裔的处境比前一年恶化，而2019年，有42%的人表示这一点。
Hispanic registered voters’ choice of congressional candidate this year is related to how they see the situation of U.S. Hispanics.
拉美裔登记选民今年对国会候选人的选择与他们如何看待美国拉美裔的处境有关。