Subject: Airbnb

March 2011 Yesterday Fred Wilson published a remarkable post about missing Airbnb .

2011 年 3 月 昨天 Fred Wilson 发表了一篇关于错过 Airbnb 的精彩帖子。

VCs miss good startups all the time, but it's extraordinarily rare for one to talk about it publicly till long afterward.

风险投资人总是怀念优秀的初创公司，但很少有人要等到很久之后才公开谈论它。

So that post is further evidence what a rare bird Fred is.

所以这篇文章进一步证明了弗雷德是一种稀有鸟类。

He's probably the nicest VC I know.

他可能是我认识的最好的风险投资家。

Reading Fred's post made me go back and look at the emails I exchanged with him at the time, trying to convince him to invest in Airbnb.

阅读 Fred 的帖子让我回过头来查看当时与他交换的电子邮件，试图说服他投资 Airbnb。

It was quite interesting to read.

读起来很有趣。

You can see Fred's mind at work as he circles the deal.

当弗雷德思考这笔交易时，你可以看到他在思考。

Fred and the Airbnb founders have generously agreed to let me publish this email exchange (with one sentence redacted about something that's strategically important to Airbnb and not an important part of the conversation).

Fred 和 Airbnb 创始人慷慨地同意让我发布此电子邮件往来（其中有一句话是关于对 Airbnb 具有战略重要性的事情，但不是对话的重要部分）。

It's an interesting illustration of an element of the startup ecosystem that few except the participants ever see:

这是创业生态系统一个元素的有趣例证，除了参与者之外很少有人见过：

investors trying to convince one another to invest in their portfolio companies.

投资者试图说服彼此投资他们的投资组合公司。

Hundreds if not thousands of conversations of this type are happening now, but if one has ever been published, I haven't seen it.

现在有成百上千的此类对话正在发生，但即使曾经发表过，我也还没有看到。

The Airbnbs themselves never even saw these emails at the time.

Airbnb 本身当时甚至从未见过这些电子邮件。

We do a lot of this behind the scenes stuff at YC, because we invest in such a large number of companies, and we invest so early that

我们在 YC 做了很多幕后工作，因为我们投资了如此多的公司，而且我们投资得太早，以至于

investors sometimes need a lot of convincing to see their merits.

投资者有时需要大量说服力才能看到他们的优点。

I don't always try as hard as this though.

但我并不总是像这样努力。

Fred must have found me quite annoying.

弗雷德一定觉得我很烦人。

from: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson, AirBedAndBreakfast Founders date: Fri, Jan 23, 2009 at 11:42 AM subject: meet the airbeds One of the startups from the batch that just started, AirbedAndBreakfast, is in NYC right now meeting their users.

发件人：Paul Graham 致：Fred Wilson，AirBedAndBreakfast 创始人 日期：2009 年 1 月 23 日星期五上午 11:42 主题：认识充气床 AirbedAndBreakfast 是刚刚起步的这批初创公司之一，目前正在纽约与他们的用户会面。

(NYC is their biggest

（纽约是他们最大的

market.) I'd recommend meeting them if your schedule allows.

市场。）如果您的日程安排允许，我建议您与他们会面。

I'd been thinking to myself that though these guys were going to do really well, I should introduce them to angels, because VCs would never go for it.

我一直在想，虽然这些人会做得很好，但我应该把他们介绍给天使投资人，因为风投永远不会这么做。

But then I thought maybe I should give you more credit.

但后来我想也许我应该给予你更多的信任。

You'll certainly like meeting them.

您一定会喜欢见到他们。

Be sure to ask about how they funded themselves with breakfast cereal.

请务必询问他们如何通过早餐麦片来资助自己。

There's no reason this couldn't be as big as Ebay.

没有理由它不能像 Ebay 一样大。

And this team

还有这支球队

is the right one to do it.

是做这件事的正确人选。

--pg from: Brian Chesky to: Paul Graham cc: Nathan Blecharczyk, Joe Gebbia date: Fri, Jan 23, 2009 at 11:40 AM subject: Re: meet the airbeds PG, Thanks for the intro!

--pg 发自：Brian Chesky 至：Paul Graham 抄送：Nathan Blecharczyk、Joe Gebbia 日期：2009 年 1 月 23 日星期五上午 11:40 主题：回复：认识一下充气床 PG，感谢您的介绍！

Brian from: Paul Graham to: Brian Chesky cc: Nathan Blecharczyk, Joe Gebbia date: Fri, Jan 23, 2009 at 12:38 PM subject: Re: meet the airbeds It's a longshot, at this stage, but if there was any VC who'd get

Brian 发件人：Paul Graham 收件人：Brian Chesky 抄送：Nathan Blecharczyk、Joe Gebbia 日期：2009 年 1 月 23 日星期五中午 12:38 主题：回复：与充气床见面 在现阶段，可能性不大，但如果有任何 VC 愿意的话

you guys, it would be Fred.

你们，那就是弗雷德。

He is the least suburban-golf-playing VC I know.

他是我认识的最不常在郊区打高尔夫球的风险投资家。

He likes to observe startups for a while before acting, so don't be bummed if he seems ambivalent.

他喜欢在行动之前观察初创公司一段时间，所以如果他看起来很矛盾，请不要感到沮丧。

--pg from: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham, date: Sun, Jan 25, 2009 at 5:28 PM subject: Re: meet the airbeds Thanks Paul We are having a bit of a debate inside our partnership about the airbed concept.

--pg 发件人：Fred Wilson 致：Paul Graham，日期：2009 年 1 月 25 日星期日下午 5:28 主题：回复：认识气垫床 谢谢 Paul 我们在我们的合作伙伴关系中就气床概念进行了一些辩论。

We'll finish that debate tomorrow in our weekly

我们将在明天的周刊中结束这场辩论

meeting and get back to you with our thoughts Thanks Fred from: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Sun, Jan 25, 2009 at 10:48 PM subject: Re: meet the airbeds I'd recommend having the debate after meeting them instead of before.

会议并回复您我们的想法 感谢 Fred 来自：Paul Graham 致：Fred Wilson 日期：2009 年 1 月 25 日星期日晚上 10:48 主题：回复：认识充气床 我建议在见到他们之后而不是之前进行辩论。

We had big doubts about this idea, but they vanished on meeting the guys.

我们对这个想法抱有很大的怀疑，但在见到这些人后，这些疑虑就消失了。

from: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Mon, Jan 26, 2009 at 11:08 AM subject: RE: meet the airbeds

发件人：Fred Wilson 致：Paul Graham 日期：2009 年 1 月 26 日星期一上午 11:08 主题：回复：认识充气床

We are still very suspect of this idea but will take a meeting as you suggest Thanks fred from: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham, AirBedAndBreakfast Founders date: Mon, Jan 26, 2009 at 11:09 AM subject: RE: meet the airbeds Airbed team - Are you still in NYC?

我们仍然非常怀疑这个想法，但会按照您的建议召开会议 感谢 Fred Wilson 致：Paul Graham，AirBedAndBreakfast 创始人 日期：2009 年 1 月 26 日星期一上午 11:09 主题：回复：认识一下 Airbeds Airbed 团队 - 您还在纽约吗？

We'd like to meet if you are Thanks fred from: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Mon, Jan 26, 2009 at 1:42 PM subject: Re: meet the airbeds Ideas can morph.

如果您是，我们很乐意与您见面。 谢谢 Fred，发件人：Paul Graham 致：Fred Wilson 日期：2009 年 1 月 26 日星期一下午 1:42 主题：回复：认识充气床 想法可以变化。

Practically every really big startup could say,

实际上每个真正的大型初创公司都会说，

five years later, "believe it or not, we started out doing ___." It just seemed a very good sign to me that these guys were actually on the ground in NYC hunting down (and understanding) their users.

五年后，“不管你信不信，我们开始做___。”对我来说，这似乎是一个非常好的迹象，这些人实际上在纽约寻找（并了解）他们的用户。

On top of several previous good signs.

除了之前的几个好迹象之外。

--pg from: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Sun, Feb 1, 2009 at 7:15 AM subject: Re: meet the airbeds It's interesting Our two junior team members were enthusiastic

--pg 发件人：Fred Wilson 致：Paul Graham 日期：2009 年 2 月 1 日星期日上午 7:15 主题：回复：认识充气床 很有趣 我们的两名初级团队成员非常热情

The three "old guys" didn't get it from: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Mon, Feb 9, 2009 at 5:58 PM subject: airbnb The Airbeds just won the first poll among all the YC startups in their batch by a landslide.

三个“老家伙”没有得到它 发信人：Paul Graham 发信人：Fred Wilson 日期：2009 年 2 月 9 日星期一下午 5:58 主题：airbnb Airbeds 刚刚以压倒性优势赢得了所有 YC 初创公司中的第一个民意调查。

In the past this has not been a 100% indicator of success (if only anything were) but much better than random.

在过去，这并不是 100% 成功的指标（如果有的话），但比随机的要好得多。

--pg from: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Fri, Feb 13, 2009 at 5:29 PM subject: Re: airbnb

--pg 发件人：Fred Wilson 致：Paul Graham 日期：2009 年 2 月 13 日星期五下午 5:29 主题：回复：airbnb

I met them today They have an interesting business I'm just not sure how big it's going to be fred from: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Sat, Feb 14, 2009 at 9:50 AM subject: Re: airbnb Did they explain the long-term goal of being the market in accommodation the way eBay is in stuff?

我今天见到了他们 他们有一个有趣的业务，我只是不确定它会有多大 弗雷德·威尔逊 日期：2009 年 2 月 14 日星期六上午 9:50 主题：回复：airbnb 他们是否解释了成为住宿市场的长期目标，就像 eBay 那样？

That seems like it would be huge.

这么看来，规模会很大。

Hotels now are like airlines in the 1970s before they figured out how to increase their load factors.

现在的酒店就像 20 世纪 70 年代的航空公司，当时还没有找到提高客座率的方法。

from: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Tue, Feb 17, 2009 at 2:05 PM subject: Re: airbnb They did but I am not sure I buy that ABNB reminds me of Etsy in that it facilitates real commerce in a marketplace model directly between two people So I think it can scale all the way to the bed and breakfast market But I am not sure they can take on the hotel market I could be wrong But even so, if you include short term room rental, second home

发件人：Fred Wilson 致：Paul Graham 日期：2009 年 2 月 17 日星期二下午 2:05 主题：回复：airbnb 他们做到了，但我不确定我是否相信 ABNB 让我想起了 Etsy，因为它促进了两个人之间直接在市场模型中进行真正的商务 所以我认为它可以一直扩展到住宿加早餐市场 但我不确定他们能否占领酒店市场 我可能是错的 但即便如此，如果你包括短期房间租赁，第二家

rental, bed and breakfast, and other similar classes of accommodations, you get to a pretty big opportunity fred from: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Wed, Feb 18, 2009 at 12:21 AM subject: Re: airbnb So invest in them!

出租、住宿加早餐以及其他类似类别的住宿，您将获得一个相当大的机会 弗雷德：Paul Graham 致：Fred Wilson 日期：2009 年 2 月 18 日星期三上午 12:21 主题：回复：airbnb 所以投资它们吧！

They're very capital efficient.

他们的资本效率非常高。

They would make an investor's money go a long way.

它们会让投资者的钱发挥很大作用。

It's also counter-cyclical.

这也是反周期的。

They just arrived back from NYC, and when I asked them what was the most significant thing they'd observed,

他们刚刚从纽约回来，当我问他们观察到的最重要的事情是什么时，

it was how many of their users actually needed to do these rentals to pay their rents.

这是他们有多少用户实际上需要进行这些租赁来支付租金。

--pg from: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Wed, Feb 18, 2009 at 2:21 AM subject: Re: airbnb There's a lot to like I've done a few things, like intro it to my friends at Foundry who were investors in Service Metrics and understand this model I am also talking to my friend Mark Pincus who had an idea like this a few years ago.

--pg 发件人：Fred Wilson 致：Paul Graham 日期：2009 年 2 月 18 日星期三凌晨 2:21 主题：回复：airbnb 我做了一些事情，有很多值得喜欢的地方，比如向 Foundry 的朋友们介绍一下，他们是 Service Metrics 的投资者，并且了解这个模型。我也在和我的朋友 Mark Pincus 交谈，他们几年前就有了这样的想法。

So we are working on it Thanks for the lead Fred from: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Fri, Feb 20, 2009 at 10:00 PM subject: airbnb already spreading to pros I know you're skeptical they'll ever get hotels, but there's a continuum between private sofas and hotel rooms, and they just moved one step further along it.

所以我们正在努力。感谢 Fred 的领导，发件人：Paul Graham 致：Fred Wilson 日期：2009 年 2 月 20 日星期五晚上 10:00 主题：Airbnb 已经向专业人士传播 我知道您怀疑他们是否会入住酒店，但私人沙发和酒店房间之间存在一个连续体，他们只是沿着这个连续体向前迈进了一步。

[link to an airbnb user] This is after only a few months.

[链接到爱彼迎用户] 这只是几个月后的事。

I bet you they will get hotels

我敢打赌他们会得到酒店

eventually.

最终。

It will start with small ones.

将从小的开始。

Just wait till all the 10-room pensiones in Rome discover this site.

请等待罗马所有拥有 10 间客房的养老金旅馆发现这个网站。

And once it spreads to hotels, where is the point (in size of chain) at which it stops?

一旦它蔓延到酒店，它的止点（连锁规模）在哪里？

Once something becomes a big marketplace, you ignore it at your peril.

一旦某个东西成为一个大市场，你忽视它就会面临危险。

--pg from: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Sat, Feb 21, 2009 at 4:26 AM subject: Re: airbnb already spreading to pros That's true.

--pg 发件人：Fred Wilson 致：Paul Graham 日期：2009 年 2 月 21 日星期六凌晨 4:26 主题：回复：爱彼迎已经向专业人士传播 这是真的。

It's also true that there are quite a few marketplaces

确实有很多市场

out there that serve this same market If you look at many of the people who list at ABNB, they list elsewhere too I am not negative on this one, I am interested, but we are still in the gathering data phase.

如果你看看在 ABNB 列出的许多人，他们也在其他地方列出，我对此并不持否定态度，我很感兴趣，但我们仍处于收集数据阶段。

fred

弗雷德