Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

December 2014 American technology companies want the government to make immigration easier because they say they can't find enough programmers in the US.

2014 年 12 月 美国科技公司希望政府让移民更容易，因为他们说在美国找不到足够的程序员。

Anti-immigration people say that instead of letting foreigners take these jobs, we should train more Americans to be programmers.

反移民人士表示，我们不应该让外国人抢走这些工作，而应该培训更多的美国人成为程序员。

Who's right?

谁是对的？

The technology companies are right.

科技公司是对的。

What the anti-immigration people don't understand is that there is a huge variation in ability between

反移民人士不明白的是，不同国家之间的能力存在巨大差异。

competent programmers and exceptional ones, and while you can train people to be competent, you can't train them to be exceptional.

有称职的程序员和杰出的程序员，虽然你可以训练人们有能力，但你无法将他们培养成杰出的。

Exceptional programmers have an aptitude for and interest in programming that is not merely the product of training.

杰出的程序员对编程具有天赋和兴趣，而这不仅仅是培训的产物。

[ 1 ] The US has less than 5% of the world's population.

[1] 美国人口不到世界人口的5%。

Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed, 95% of great programmers are born outside the US.

这意味着，如果使某人成为优秀程序员的品质分布均匀，那么 95% 的优秀程序员都出生在美国以外的地区。

The anti-immigration people have to invent some explanation to account for all the effort technology companies have expended trying to make immigration easier.

反移民人士必须发明一些解释来解释科技公司为让移民更容易而付出的所有努力。

So they claim it's because they want to drive down salaries.

所以他们声称这是因为他们想压低工资。

But if you talk to startups, you find practically every one over a certain size has gone through legal contortions to get programmers into the US, where they then paid them the same as they'd have paid an American.

但如果你与初创公司交谈，你会发现几乎每一家超过一定规模的公司都经历了法律扭曲才能让程序员进入美国，然后他们支付给他们的工资与支付给美国人的工资相同。

Why would they

他们为什么要

go to extra trouble to get programmers for the same price?

以同样的价格费尽心思去买程序员？

The only explanation is that they're telling the truth: there are just not enough great programmers to go around.

唯一的解释是他们说的是实话：优秀的程序员不够多。

[ 2 ] I asked the CEO of a startup with about 70 programmers how many more he'd hire if he could get all the great programmers he wanted.

[2] 我问一家拥有大约 70 名程序员的初创公司的首席执行官，如果他能得到他想要的所有优秀程序员，他会雇佣多少人。

He said "We'd hire 30 tomorrow morning." And this is one of the hot startups that always win recruiting battles.

他说：“明天早上我们会雇佣 30 个人。”这是总是在招聘战中获胜的热门初创公司之一。

It's the same all

都是一样的

over Silicon Valley.

硅谷上空。

Startups are that constrained for talent.

初创公司对人才的限制很大。

It would be great if more Americans were trained as programmers, but no amount of training can flip a ratio as overwhelming as 95 to 5.

如果有更多的美国人接受程序员培训，那就太好了，但再多的培训也无法扭转 95 比 5 的压倒性比例。

Especially since programmers are being trained in other countries too.

特别是因为程序员也在其他国家接受培训。

Barring some cataclysm, it will always be true that most great programmers are born outside the US.

除非发生一些灾难，大多数伟大的程序员都出生在美国以外的地方，这是事实。

It will always be true that most people who are great at anything are born outside

大多数擅长任何事情的人都是在外面出生的，这永远是事实