The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius

November 2019 Everyone knows that to do great work you need both natural ability and determination.

2019 年 11 月 每个人都知道，要做好工作，需要天生的能力和决心。

But there's a third ingredient that's not as well understood: an obsessive interest in a particular topic.

但还有第三个因素还没有被很好地理解：对某个特定主题的痴迷兴趣。

To explain this point I need to burn my reputation with some group of people, and I'm going to choose bus ticket collectors.

为了解释这一点，我需要在一些人中毁掉我的声誉，我将选择公交车售票员。

There are people who collect old bus tickets.

有人收集旧巴士票。

Like many collectors, they

和许多收藏家一样，他们

have an obsessive interest in the minutiae of what they collect.

对他们收集的东西的细节有着浓厚的兴趣。

They can keep track of distinctions between different types of bus tickets that would be hard for the rest of us to remember.

他们可以跟踪不同类型的公交车票之间的区别，而这些区别对于我们其他人来说很难记住。

Because we don't care enough.

因为我们不够关心。

What's the point of spending so much time thinking about old bus tickets?

花这么多时间思考旧巴士票有什么意义呢？

Which leads us to the second feature of this kind of obsession: there is no point.

这就引出了这种痴迷的第二个特征：没有意义。

A bus ticket collector's love is disinterested.

公共汽车售票员的爱是无私的。

They're not doing it to impress us or to make themselves rich, but for its own sake.

他们这样做不是为了给我们留下深刻印象或让自己变得富有，而是为了自己的利益。

When you look at the lives of people who've done great work, you see a consistent pattern.

当你观察那些做出了伟大工作的人的生活时，你会看到一个一致的模式。

They often begin with a bus ticket collector's obsessive interest in something that would have seemed pointless to most of their contemporaries.

他们通常始于公共汽车售票员对某些对大多数同时代人来说似乎毫无意义的东西的痴迷兴趣。

One of the most striking features of Darwin's book about his voyage on the Beagle is the

达尔文关于他小猎犬号航行的书中最引人注目的特点之一是

sheer depth of his interest in natural history.

他对自然历史的兴趣非常浓厚。

His curiosity seems infinite.

他的好奇心似乎是无限的。

Ditto for Ramanujan, sitting by the hour working out on his slate what happens to series.

拉马努金也是如此，他每小时都坐在石板上研究系列中会发生什么。

It's a mistake to think they were "laying the groundwork" for the discoveries they made later.

认为他们正在为后来的发现“奠定基础”是错误的。

There's too much intention in that metaphor.

这个比喻的意图太多了。

Like bus ticket collectors, they were doing it because they liked it.

就像公共汽车售票员一样，他们这样做是因为他们喜欢它。

But there is a difference between Ramanujan and a bus ticket

但拉马努金和巴士票之间是有区别的

collector.

收藏家。

Series matter, and bus tickets don't.

系列很重要，而巴士票则不重要。

If I had to put the recipe for genius into one sentence, that might be it: to have a disinterested obsession with something that matters.

如果我必须用一句话来形容天才的秘诀，那就是：对重要的事情有一种无私的痴迷。

Aren't I forgetting about the other two ingredients?

我是不是忘记了另外两种成分？

Less than you might think.

比你想象的要少。

An obsessive interest in a topic is both a proxy for ability and a substitute for determination.

对某个主题的痴迷兴趣既是能力的代表，也是决心的替代品。

Unless you have sufficient mathematical aptitude, you won't find series interesting.

除非你有足够的数学能力，否则你不会发现级数有趣。

And when you're obsessively interested in something, you don't need as much determination: you don't need to push yourself as hard when curiosity is pulling you.

当你对某件事非常感兴趣时，你就不需要那么大的决心：当好奇心牵引着你时，你不需要那么努力地逼自己。

An obsessive interest will even bring you luck, to the extent anything can.

痴迷的兴趣甚至会给你带来幸运，在某种程度上，任何事情都可以。

Chance, as Pasteur said, favors the prepared mind, and if there's one thing an obsessed mind is, it's prepared.

正如巴斯德所说，机会青睐有准备的头脑，如果痴迷的头脑有一件事，那就是做好了准备。

The disinterestedness of this kind of obsession is its most important

这种执念的无私是最重要的

feature.

功能。

Not just because it's a filter for earnestness, but because it helps you discover new ideas.

不仅因为它是认真的过滤器，还因为它可以帮助您发现新想法。

The paths that lead to new ideas tend to look unpromising.

产生新想法的道路往往看起来没有希望。

If they looked promising, other people would already have explored them.

如果它们看起来很有前途，其他人就会已经探索过它们。

How do the people who do great work discover these paths that others overlook?

做出伟大工作的人如何发现其他人忽视的道路？

The popular story is that they simply have better vision: because they're so talented, they see paths that others miss.

流行的说法是，他们只是拥有更好的视野：因为他们非常有才华，所以他们看到了别人错过的道路。

But

但是

if you look at the way great discoveries are made, that's not what happens.

如果你看看伟大发现的产生方式，就会发现事实并非如此。

Darwin didn't pay closer attention to individual species than other people because he saw that this would lead to great discoveries, and they didn't.

达尔文并没有比其他人更关注单个物种，因为他看到这会带来伟大的发现，但他们没有。

He was just really, really interested in such things.

他对这些事情真的非常非常感兴趣。

Darwin couldn't turn it off.

达尔文无法将其关闭。

Neither could Ramanujan.

拉马努金也不能。

They didn't discover the hidden paths that they did because they seemed promising,

他们没有发现他们所做的隐藏路径，因为它们看起来很有希望，

but because they couldn't help it.

但因为他们无能为力。

That's what allowed them to follow paths that someone who was merely ambitious would have ignored.

这就是让他们能够走上那些仅仅有野心的人会忽视的道路的原因。

What rational person would decide that the way to write great novels was to begin by spending several years creating an imaginary elvish language, like Tolkien, or visiting every household in southwestern Britain, like Trollope?

哪个理性的人会认为写伟大小说的方法是从花几年时间创造一种想象中的精灵语言开始，就像托尔金一样，或者像特罗洛普一样走访英国西南部的每一个家庭？

No one, including Tolkien and Trollope.

没有人，包括托尔金和特罗洛普。

The bus ticket theory is similar to Carlyle's famous definition of genius as an infinite capacity for taking pains.

巴士票理论类似于卡莱尔对天才的著名定义，即具有无限的努力能力。

But there are two differences.

但有两点不同。

The bus ticket theory makes it clear that the source of this infinite capacity for taking pains is not infinite diligence, as Carlyle seems to have meant, but the sort of infinite interest that collectors have.

公交车票理论清楚地表明，这种无限的付出努力的能力的来源并不是卡莱尔似乎所说的无限的勤奋，而是收藏家所拥有的那种无限的兴趣。

It also adds an important qualification: an

它还增加了一个重要的资格：

infinite capacity for taking pains about something that matters.

为重要的事情付出努力的无限能力。

So what matters?

那么什么重要呢？

You can never be sure.

你永远无法确定。

It's precisely because no one can tell in advance which paths are promising that you can discover new ideas by working on what you're interested in.

正是因为没有人能提前知道哪条路是有前途的，所以你可以通过做自己感兴趣的事情来发现新的想法。

But there are some heuristics you can use to guess whether an obsession might be one that matters.

但是，您可以使用一些启发法来猜测一种痴迷是否可能是重要的。

For example, it's more promising if you're creating something, rather than just consuming something

例如，如果你正在创造一些东西，而不是仅仅消费一些东西，那就更有前途

someone else creates.

别人创造。

It's more promising if something you're interested in is difficult, especially if it's more difficult for other people than it is for you.

如果你感兴趣的事情很困难，尤其是当它对其他人来说比你更困难时，那就更有希望了。

And the obsessions of talented people are more likely to be promising.

而有才华的人所痴迷的，更有可能是有前途的。

When talented people become interested in random things, they're not truly random.

当有才华的人对随机事物感兴趣时，他们并不是真正随机的。

But you can never be sure.

但你永远无法确定。

In fact, here's an interesting idea that's also rather alarming if it's true: it may be that to do great

事实上，这是一个有趣的想法，如果它是真的，也相当令人震惊：可能是为了做得很好

work, you also have to waste a lot of time.

工作的同时，你也不得不浪费很多时间。

In many different areas, reward is proportionate to risk.

在许多不同领域，回报与风险成正比。

If that rule holds here, then the way to find paths that lead to truly great work is to be willing to expend a lot of effort on things that turn out to be every bit as unpromising as they seem.

如果这条规则在这里成立，那么找到通往真正伟大工作的道路的方法就是愿意在那些看起来毫无希望的事情上花费大量的努力。

I'm not sure if this is true.

我不确定这是否属实。

On one hand, it seems surprisingly difficult to waste your time so long as you're working hard on

一方面，只要你努力工作，就很难浪费时间。

something interesting.

一些有趣的事情。

So much of what you do ends up being useful.

你所做的很多事情最终都会变得有用。

But on the other hand, the rule about the relationship between risk and reward is so powerful that it seems to hold wherever risk occurs.

但另一方面，关于风险与回报之间关系的规则是如此强大，以至于无论风险发生在哪里，它似乎都成立。

Newton's case, at least, suggests that the risk/reward rule holds here.

牛顿的例子至少表明风险/回报规则在这里成立。

He's famous for one particular obsession of his that turned out to be unprecedentedly fruitful: using math to describe the

他因一项特别的痴迷而闻名，这一痴迷后来被证明是空前富有成效的：用数学来描述

world.

世界。

But he had two other obsessions, alchemy and theology, that seem to have been complete wastes of time.

但他还有另外两个痴迷，炼金术和神学，这似乎完全是浪费时间。

He ended up net ahead.

他最终取得净领先。

His bet on what we now call physics paid off so well that it more than compensated for the other two.

他对我们现在所说的物理学的赌注得到了很好的回报，甚至超过了其他两个赌注。

But were the other two necessary, in the sense that he had to take big risks to make such big discoveries?

但从他必须冒巨大风险才能做出如此重大发现的意义上来说，另外两个是必要的吗？

I don't know.

我不知道。

Here's an even more alarming idea: might one make all bad bets?

这是一个更令人震惊的想法：一个人可能会做出所有错误的赌注吗？

It

它

probably happens quite often.

可能经常发生。

But we don't know how often, because these people don't become famous.

但我们不知道多久一次，因为这些人并没有出名。

It's not merely that the returns from following a path are hard to predict.

这不仅仅是因为遵循一条道路的回报难以预测。

They change dramatically over time.

随着时间的推移，它们会发生巨大的变化。

1830 was a really good time to be obsessively interested in natural history.

1830 年确实是对自然历史产生浓厚兴趣的好时机。

If Darwin had been born in 1709 instead of 1809, we might never have heard of him.

如果达尔文出生于 1709 年而不是 1809 年，我们可能永远不会听说过他。

What can one do in the face of such uncertainty?

面对这种不确定性，人们能做什么呢？

One solution is

一种解决方案是

to hedge your bets, which in this case means to follow the obviously promising paths instead of your own private obsessions.

对冲你的赌注，在这种情况下，这意味着遵循明显有前途的道路，而不是你自己的个人痴迷。

But as with any hedge, you're decreasing reward when you decrease risk.

但与任何对冲一样，当你降低风险时，你的回报也会减少。

If you forgo working on what you like in order to follow some more conventionally ambitious path, you might miss something wonderful that you'd otherwise have discovered.

如果你为了追随一些更传统的雄心勃勃的道路而放弃做你喜欢的事情，你可能会错过一些本来可以发现的美妙的东西。

That too must happen all the time, perhaps even more often than the genius whose bets all fail.

这种情况也必定经常发生，甚至可能比那些赌注全部失败的天才发生的次数还要多。

The other solution is to let yourself be interested in lots of different things.

另一个解决方案是让自己对很多不同的事情感兴趣。

You don't decrease your upside if you switch between equally genuine interests based on which seems to be working so far.

如果你根据目前看来有效的兴趣在同样真实的兴趣之间切换，你不会减少你的优势。

But there is a danger here too: if you work on too many different projects, you might not get deeply enough into any of them.

但这里也存在一个危险：如果您从事太多不同的项目，您可能无法深入了解其中任何一个项目。

One interesting thing about the bus ticket theory is that it may help explain why different types of people excel at different kinds

关于巴士票理论的一件有趣的事情是，它可能有助于解释为什么不同类型的人在不同方面表现出色

of work.

的工作。

Interest is much more unevenly distributed than ability.

兴趣比能力分布更不均匀。

If natural ability is all you need to do great work, and natural ability is evenly distributed, you have to invent elaborate theories to explain the skewed distributions we see among those who actually do great work in various fields.

如果自然能力就是你完成伟大工作所需要的一切，并且自然能力分布均匀，那么你就必须发明复杂的理论来解释我们在各个领域实际做出伟大工作的人中看到的不平衡分布。

But it may be that much of the skew has a simpler explanation: different people are interested in different things.

但大部分偏差可能有一个更简单的解释：不同的人对不同的事物感兴趣。

The bus ticket theory also explains why people are less likely to do great work after they have children.

公交车票理论还解释了为什么人们在有了孩子后不太可能做好工作。

Here interest has to compete not just with external obstacles, but with another interest, and one that for most people is extremely powerful.

在这里，兴趣不仅要与外部障碍竞争，还要与另一种兴趣竞争，而这种兴趣对大多数人来说是极其强大的。

It's harder to find time for work after you have kids, but that's the easy part.

有了孩子后，找时间工作就更难了，但这是容易的部分。

The real change is that you don't want to.

真正的改变是你不想改变。

But the most exciting implication of the bus ticket theory is that

但巴士票理论最令人兴奋的含义是

it suggests ways to encourage great work.

它提出了鼓励伟大工作的方法。

If the recipe for genius is simply natural ability plus hard work, all we can do is hope we have a lot of ability, and work as hard as we can.

如果天才的秘诀就是天生的能力加上努力的努力，那么我们所能做的就是希望自己拥有足够的能力，并尽我们所能地努力。

But if interest is a critical ingredient in genius, we may be able, by cultivating interest, to cultivate genius.

但如果兴趣是天才的关键因素，那么我们或许可以通过培养兴趣来培养天才。

For example, for the very ambitious, the bus ticket theory suggests that the way to do great work is to relax a little.

例如，对于雄心勃勃的人来说，公交车票理论表明，做好工作的方法就是放松一点。

Instead of

而不是

gritting your teeth and diligently pursuing what all your peers agree is the most promising line of research, maybe you should try doing something just for fun.

咬紧牙关，孜孜不倦地追求所有同行都认为最有前途的研究方向，也许你应该尝试做一些只是为了好玩的事情。

And if you're stuck, that may be the vector along which to break out.

如果你陷入困境，这可能是突破的向量。

I've always liked Hamming's famous double-barrelled question: what are the most important problems in your field, and why aren't you working on one of them?

我一直很喜欢汉明著名的双重问题：你的领域中最重要的问题是什么，你为什么不解决其中一个问题？

It's a great way to shake yourself up.

这是振作起来的好方法。

But

但是

it may be overfitting a bit.

它可能有点过度拟合。

It might be at least as useful to ask yourself: if you could take a year off to work on something that probably wouldn't be important but would be really interesting, what would it be?

问问自己至少同样有用：如果你可以花一年时间去做一些可能不重要但非常有趣的事情，那会是什么？

The bus ticket theory also suggests a way to avoid slowing down as you get older.

公交车票理论还提出了一种避免随着年龄增长而放慢速度的方法。

Perhaps the reason people have fewer new ideas as they get older is not simply that they're losing their edge.

也许随着年龄的增长，人们的新想法越来越少，原因不仅仅是他们失去了优势。

It may

它可能

also be because once you become established, you can no longer mess about with irresponsible side projects the way you could when you were young and no one cared what you did.

另一个原因是，一旦你站稳了脚跟，你就不能再像年轻时那样，搞一些不负责任的副业了，没人关心你做了什么。

The solution to that is obvious: remain irresponsible.

解决这个问题的办法很明显：保持不负责任。

It will be hard, though, because the apparently random projects you take up to stave off decline will read to outsiders as evidence of it.

但这会很困难，因为你为避免衰退而采取的看似随机的项目会被外人解读为证据。

And you yourself won't know for sure that they're wrong.

而你自己也无法确定他们是错的。

But it will

但它会

at least be more fun to work on what you want.

至少做你想做的事会更有趣。

It may even be that we can cultivate a habit of intellectual bus ticket collecting in kids.

甚至我们可以培养孩子们智能取票的习惯。

The usual plan in education is to start with a broad, shallow focus, then gradually become more specialized.

通常的教育计划是从广泛、浅薄的关注点开始，然后逐渐变得更加专业。

But I've done the opposite with my kids.

但我对我的孩子却做了相反的事情。

I know I can count on their school to handle the broad, shallow part, so I take them deep.

我知道我可以指望他们的学校能够处理广泛而浅层的部分，所以我深入地了解他们。

When they get interested in something, however random, I encourage

当他们对某件事感兴趣时，无论多么随机，我鼓励

them to go preposterously, bus ticket collectorly, deep.

他们去荒唐，公交车票收，深。

I don't do this because of the bus ticket theory.

由于巴士票理论，我不这样做。

I do it because I want them to feel the joy of learning, and they're never going to feel that about something I'm making them learn.

我这样做是因为我希望他们感受到学习的乐趣，而他们永远不会对我让他们学习的东西有这种感觉。

It has to be something they're interested in.

这一定是他们感兴趣的东西。

I'm just following the path of least resistance; depth is a byproduct.

我只是走阻力最小的路；深度是一个副产品。

But if in trying to show them the joy of learning I also end up training them to go deep, so much the better.

但如果在试图向他们展示学习的乐趣的同时，我最终也训练他们深入学习，那就更好了。

Will it have any effect?

会有效果吗？

I have no idea.

我不知道。

But that uncertainty may be the most interesting point of all.

但这种不确定性可能是最有趣的一点。

There is so much more to learn about how to do great work.

关于如何做好工作，还有很多东西需要学习。

As old as human civilization feels, it's really still very young if we haven't nailed something so basic.

尽管人类文明看起来很古老，但如果我们还没有解决如此基本的问题，它实际上还很年轻。

It's exciting to think there are still discoveries to make about discovery.

想到仍然有关于发现的发现是令人兴奋的。

If that's the sort of thing you're interested in.

如果那是你感兴趣的事情。

Notes

注释

[1] There are other types of collecting that illustrate this point better than bus tickets, but they're also more popular.

[1] 还有其他类型的收集比巴士票更能说明这一点，但它们也更受欢迎。

It seemed just as well to use an inferior example rather than offend more people by telling them their hobby doesn't matter.

与其告诉更多的人他们的爱好并不重要，不如用一个较差的例子来冒犯他们。

[2] I worried a little about using the word "disinterested," since some people mistakenly believe it means not interested.

[2] 我对使用“无兴趣”这个词有点担心，因为有些人错误地认为它意味着不感兴趣。

But anyone who expects to be a genius will have to know the meaning of such a

但任何想要成为天才的人都必须知道这样的含义

basic word, so I figure they may as well start now.

基本词，所以我想他们不妨现在就开始。

[3] Think how often genius must have been nipped in the bud by people being told, or telling themselves, to stop messing about and be responsible.

[3] 想一想，有多少次天才被扼杀在萌芽状态，因为人们被告知，或者告诉自己，不要再胡闹了，要负责任。

Ramanujan's mother was a huge enabler.

拉马努金的母亲是一位巨大的推动者。

Imagine if she hadn't been.

想象一下如果她没有的话。

Imagine if his parents had made him go out and get a job instead of sitting around at home doing math.

想象一下，如果他的父母让他出去找一份工作，而不是坐在家里做数学。

On the other hand, anyone quoting the preceding paragraph to justify

另一方面，任何人引用前一段来证明其合理性

not getting a job is probably mistaken.

没有找到工作可能是错误的。

[4] 1709 Darwin is to time what the Milanese Leonardo is to space.

[4] 1709年达尔文之于时间正如米兰达·芬奇之于空间。

[5] "An infinite capacity for taking pains" is a paraphrase of what Carlyle wrote.

[5] “承受痛苦的无限能力”是卡莱尔所写的释义。

What he wrote, in his History of Frederick the Great , was "...

他在《腓特烈大帝史》中写道：“......

it is the fruit of 'genius' (which means transcendent capacity of taking trouble, first of all)...." Since the paraphrase seems the name of the idea at this point, I kept it.

它是“天才”的果实（首先，这意味着克服困难的超凡能力）……”由于此时这个释义似乎是这个想法的名称，所以我保留了它。

Carlyle's History was published in 1858.

卡莱尔的《历史》于 1858 年出版。

In 1785 Hérault de Séchelles quoted Buffon as saying "Le génie n'est qu'une plus grande aptitude à la patience." (Genius is only a greater aptitude for patience.) [6] Trollope was establishing the system of postal routes.

1785 年，埃罗·德·塞舌尔 (Hérault de Séchelles) 引用布冯的话：“Le génie n'est qu'une plus grande aptitude à la pain.” （天才只是一种更大的耐心。） [6] 特罗洛普正在建立邮政路线系统。

He himself sensed the obsessiveness with which he pursued this goal.

他自己也感受到了他追求这一目标的执着。

It is amusing to watch how a passion will grow upon a man.

观察一个人的热情如何增长是很有趣的。

During those two years it was the ambition of my life to cover the

在那两年里，我的人生目标就是报道

country with rural letter-carriers.

拥有农村邮递员的国家。

Even Newton occasionally sensed the degree of his obsessiveness.

就连牛顿偶尔也能感觉到自己的痴迷程度。

After computing pi to 15 digits, he wrote in a letter to a friend: I am ashamed to tell you to how many figures I carried these computations, having no other business at the time.

在将圆周率计算到 15 位数字后，他在给朋友的信中写道： 我很惭愧地告诉你我计算了多少位数，当时没有其他事情。

Incidentally, Ramanujan was also a compulsive calculator.

顺便说一句，拉马努金也是一个计算器强迫症患者。

As Kanigel writes in his excellent biography: One Ramanujan scholar, B.

正如卡尼格尔在他的精彩传记中所写：一位拉马努金学者，B.

M.

M。

Wilson, later told how Ramanujan's

威尔逊后来告诉拉马努金是如何

research into number theory was often "preceded by a table of numerical results, carried usually to a length from which most of us would shrink." [7] Working to understand the natural world counts as creating rather than consuming.

对数论的研究通常“先于一张数值结果表，其长度通常让我们大多数人都望而却步”。 [7] 努力了解自然世界算作创造而不是消费。

Newton tripped over this distinction when he chose to work on theology.

当牛顿选择从事神学研究时，他就被这种区别绊倒了。

His beliefs did not allow him to see it, but chasing down paradoxes in nature is fruitful in a way that chasing

他的信仰不允许他看到这一点，但追寻自然界的悖论是富有成效的，其方式是追寻

down paradoxes in sacred texts is not.

神圣文本中的悖论则不然。

[8] How much of people's propensity to become interested in a topic is inborn?

[8] 人们对某个话题感兴趣的倾向有多少是与生俱来的？

My experience so far suggests the answer is: most of it.

到目前为止，我的经验表明答案是：大部分。

Different kids get interested in different things, and it's hard to make a child interested in something they wouldn't otherwise be.

不同的孩子对不同的事物感兴趣，而且很难让孩子对原本不会感兴趣的事物产生兴趣。

Not in a way that sticks.

不是以一种坚持的方式。

The most you can do on behalf of a topic is to make sure it gets a fair showing — to make it clear to

你最多能为一个主题做的就是确保它得到公平的展示以明确

them, for example, that there's more to math than the dull drills they do in school.

例如，他们认为数学不仅仅是他们在学校做的枯燥的练习。

After that it's up to the child.

之后就看孩子的了。

Thanks to Marc Andreessen, Trevor Blackwell, Patrick Collison, Kevin Lacker, Jessica Livingston, Jackie McDonough, Robert Morris, Lisa Randall, Zak Stone, and my 7 year old for reading drafts of this.

感谢 Marc Andreessen、Trevor Blackwell、Patrick Collison、Kevin Lacker、Jessica Livingston、Jackie McDonough、Robert Morris、Lisa Randall、Zak Stone 和我 7 岁的孩子阅读了本文的草稿。