The Two Kinds of Moderate

December 2019 There are two distinct ways to be politically moderate: on purpose and by accident.

2019 年 12 月 政治温和有两种不同的方式：有意的和偶然的。

Intentional moderates are trimmers, deliberately choosing a position mid-way between the extremes of right and left.

有意识的温和派是修剪者，故意选择右派和左派极端之间的中间立场。

Accidental moderates end up in the middle, on average, because they make up their own minds about each question, and the far right and far left are roughly equally wrong.

平均而言，偶然的温和派最终会处于中间位置，因为他们对每个问题都有自己的看法，而极右翼和极左翼的错误程度大致相同。

You can distinguish intentional from accidental moderates by the

您可以通过以下方式区分有意调节和无意调节

distribution of their opinions.

分布他们的意见。

If the far left opinion on some matter is 0 and the far right opinion 100, an intentional moderate's opinion on every question will be near 50.

如果最左边对某个问题的意见是 0，最右边的意见是 100，那么故意温和派对每个问题的意见都会接近 50。

Whereas an accidental moderate's opinions will be scattered over a broad range, but will, like those of the intentional moderate, average to about 50.

虽然偶然的温和派的意见会分散在很宽的范围内，但会像有意的温和派一样，平均为 50 左右。

Intentional moderates are similar to those on the far left and the far right in that their opinions are, in a sense, not their own.

有意的温和派与极左和极右的人相似，因为他们的观点在某种意义上不是他们自己的。

The defining quality of an ideologue, whether on the left or the right, is to acquire one's opinions in bulk.

无论是左派还是右派，理论家的定义品质就是大量获取自己的观点。

You don't get to pick and choose.

你没得挑挑拣拣。

Your opinions about taxation can be predicted from your opinions about sex.

您对税收的看法可以从您对性的看法中预测出来。

And although intentional moderates might seem to be the opposite of ideologues, their beliefs (though in their case the word "positions" might be more accurate) are also acquired in bulk.

尽管故意的温和派似乎与理论家相反，但他们的信仰（尽管在他们的情况下“立场”这个词可能更准确）也是大量获得的。

If the median opinion shifts to the right or left,

如果中间意见向右或向左移动，

the intentional moderate must shift with it.

有意的温和派必须随之改变。

Otherwise they stop being moderate.

否则他们就不再温和了。

Accidental moderates, on the other hand, not only choose their own answers, but choose their own questions.

另一方面，偶然的温和派不仅选择自己的答案，而且选择自己的问题。

They may not care at all about questions that the left and right both think are terribly important.

他们可能根本不关心左翼和右翼都认为非常重要的问题。

So you can only even measure the politics of an accidental moderate from the intersection of the questions they care about and

因此，你甚至只能通过他们关心的问题和他们所关心的问题的交叉点来衡量一个偶然的温和派的政治。

those the left and right care about, and this can sometimes be vanishingly small.

左派和右派都关心的事情，有时可能微乎其微。

It is not merely a manipulative rhetorical trick to say "if you're not with us, you're against us," but often simply false.

“如果你不支持我们，你就是反对我们”，这不仅是一种操纵性的修辞技巧，而且常常是错误的。

Moderates are sometimes derided as cowards, particularly by the extreme left.

温和派有时被嘲笑为懦夫，尤其是被极左派嘲笑。

But while it may be accurate to call intentional moderates cowards, openly being an accidental moderate requires the

但是，虽然将故意的温和派称为懦夫可能是准确的，但公开成为偶然的温和派需要

most courage of all, because you get attacked from both right and left, and you don't have the comfort of being an orthodox member of a large group to sustain you.

最勇敢的是，因为你会受到左右两侧的攻击，而且你没有作为一个大团体的正统成员来支撑你的安慰。

Nearly all the most impressive people I know are accidental moderates.

我认识的几乎所有最令人印象深刻的人都是偶然的温和派。

If I knew a lot of professional athletes, or people in the entertainment business, that might be different.

如果我认识很多职业运动员或娱乐界人士，情况可能会有所不同。

Being on the far left or far right doesn't affect how fast you run or how well you sing.

位于最左边或最右边不会影响你跑得有多快或唱歌有多好。

But

但是

someone who works with ideas has to be independent-minded to do it well.

一个有想法的人必须有独立的思想才能把事情做好。

Or more precisely, you have to be independent-minded about the ideas you work with.

或者更准确地说，你必须对你所使用的想法保持独立的思想。

You could be mindlessly doctrinaire in your politics and still be a good mathematician.

你可能在政治上是盲目的教条主义者，但仍然是一名优秀的数学家。

In the 20th century, a lot of very smart people were Marxists — just no one who was smart about the subjects Marxism involves.

在20世纪，很多非常聪明的人都是马克思主义者——只是没有一个人对马克思主义所涉及的主题很聪明。

But if the ideas you use in your

但如果你在你的作品中使用的想法

work intersect with the politics of your time, you have two choices: be an accidental moderate, or be mediocre.

当你的工作与你所处时代的政治交叉时，你有两种选择：成为一个偶然的温和派，或者成为平庸的人。

Notes [1] It's possible in theory for one side to be entirely right and the other to be entirely wrong.

注释 [1] 理论上，有可能一方完全正确，另一方完全错误。

Indeed, ideologues must always believe this is the case.

事实上，理论家必须始终相信情况就是如此。

But historically it rarely has been.

但从历史上看，这种情况很少发生。

[2] For some reason the far right tend to ignore moderates rather than despise them as backsliders.

[2] 由于某种原因，极右翼倾向于忽视温和派，而不是鄙视他们作为倒退者。

I'm not sure why.

我不知道为什么。

Perhaps it

或许它

means that the far right is less ideological than the far left.

意味着极右翼的意识形态程度低于极左翼。

Or perhaps that they are more confident, or more resigned, or simply more disorganized.

或者也许他们更加自信，或者更加听天由命，或者只是更加混乱。

I just don't know.

我只是不知道。

[3] Having heretical opinions doesn't mean you have to express them openly.

[3] 有异端观点并不意味着你必须公开表达它们。

It may be easier to have them if you don't.

如果你没有的话，拥有它们可能会更容易。

Thanks to Austen Allred, Trevor Blackwell, Patrick Collison, Jessica Livingston, Amjad Masad, Ryan Petersen, and Harj Taggar for reading drafts of this.

感谢 Austen Allred、Trevor Blackwell、Patrick Collison、Jessica Livingston、Amjad Masad、Ryan Petersen 和 Harj Taggar 阅读本文的草稿。