Coronavirus and Credibility

April 2020 I recently saw a video of TV journalists and politicians confidently saying that the coronavirus would be no worse than the flu.

2020年4月，我最近看到一段视频，电视记者和政界人士自信地说，冠状病毒不会比流感更严重。

What struck me about it was not just how mistaken they seemed, but how daring.

让我震惊的不仅仅是他们看起来有多么错误，而是他们多么大胆。

How could they feel safe saying such things?

他们怎么能放心地说出这样的话呢？

The answer, I realized, is that they didn't think they could get caught.

我意识到，答案是他们认为自己不会被抓住。

They didn't realize there was any danger in making false predictions.

他们没有意识到做出错误预测有任何危险。

These people constantly make false predictions, and

这些人不断做出错误的预测，并且

get away with it, because the things they make predictions about either have mushy enough outcomes that they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in the future that few remember what they said.

侥幸逃脱惩罚，因为他们预测的事情要么有足够糊涂的结果，他们可以通过咆哮摆脱困境，要么发生在遥远的未来，很少有人记得他们所说的。

An epidemic is different.

流行病则不同。

It falsifies your predictions rapidly and unequivocally.

它会迅速而明确地歪曲你的预测。

But epidemics are rare enough that these people clearly didn't realize this was even a possibility.

但流行病非常罕见，以至于这些人显然没有意识到这种可能性。

Instead they just

相反，他们只是

continued to use their ordinary m.o., which, as the epidemic has made clear, is to talk confidently about things they don't understand.

继续使用他们平常的方式，正如疫情所表明的那样，就是自信地谈论他们不理解的事情。

An event like this is thus a uniquely powerful way of taking people's measure.

因此，像这样的事件是衡量人们的一种独特而有力的方式。

As Warren Buffett said, "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked." And the tide has just gone out like never before.

正如沃伦·巴菲特所说：“只有当潮水退去时，你才能知道谁在裸泳。”潮水刚刚退去，这是前所未有的。

Now that we've seen the results, let's remember what we saw, because

现在我们已经看到了结果，让我们记住我们所看到的，因为

this is the most accurate test of credibility we're ever likely to have.

这是我们可能拥有的最准确的可信度测试。

I hope.

我希望。

Finnish Translation

芬兰语翻译