Modeling a Wealth Tax

August 2020 Some politicians are proposing to introduce wealth taxes in addition to income and capital gains taxes.

2020 年 8 月 一些政治家提议除所得税和资本利得税外，还征收财富税。

Let's try modeling the effects of various levels of wealth tax to see what they would mean in practice for a startup founder.

让我们尝试对不同级别的财富税的影响进行建模，看看它们对初创公司创始人的实践意味着什么。

Suppose you start a successful startup in your twenties, and then live for another 60 years.

假设你在二十多岁时成功创业，然后又活了 60 年。

How much of your stock will a wealth tax consume?

财富税将消耗您多少股票？

If the wealth tax applies to all your assets, it's easy to

如果财富税适用于您的所有资产，那么很容易

calculate its effect.

计算其效果。

A wealth tax of 1% means you get to keep 99% of your stock each year.

1% 的财富税意味着您每年可以保留 99% 的股票。

After 60 years the proportion of stock you'll have left will be .99^60, or .547.

60 年后，您剩余的股票比例将为 0.99^60，即 0.547。

So a straight 1% wealth tax means the government will over the course of your life take 45% of your stock.

因此，直接征收 1% 的财富税意味着政府将在你的一生中拿走你 45% 的股票。

(Losing shares does not, obviously, mean becoming net poorer unless the value per share is increasing by less than the wealth tax rate.)

（显然，失去股票并不意味着变得净穷，除非每股价值的增长幅度低于财富税率。）

Here's how much stock the government would take over 60 years at various levels of wealth tax: wealth tax government takes 0.1% 6%</tr > 0.5% 26% 1.0% 45% 2.0% 70% 3.0% 84% 4.0% 91% 5.0% 95% A wealth tax will usually have a threshold at which it starts.

以下是政府在 60 年内按不同财富税水平征收的股票数量： 财富税 政府征收 0.1% 6%</tr > 0.5% 26% 1.0% 45% 2.0% 70% 3.0% 84% 4.0% 91% 5.0% 95% 财富税通常有一个起始门槛。

How much difference would a high threshold make?

高门槛会有多大区别？

To model that, we need to make some assumptions about the initial value of your stock and the growth rate.

为了建立模型，我们需要对股票的初始价值和增长率做出一些假设。

Suppose your stock is initially worth $2 million, and the company's trajectory is as follows: the value of your stock grows 3x for 2 years, then 2x for 2 years, then 50% for 2 years, after which you just get a typical public company growth rate, which we'll call 8%.

假设你的股票最初价值 200 万美元，公司的发展轨迹如下：你的股票价值在 2 年内增长了 3 倍，然后在 2 年内增长了 2 倍，然后在 2 年内增长了 50%，之后你就得到了典型的上市公司增长率，我们称之为 8%。

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