Crazy New Ideas

May 2021 There's one kind of opinion I'd be very afraid to express publicly.

2021 年 5 月 有一种观点我非常不敢公开表达。

If someone I knew to be both a domain expert and a reasonable person proposed an idea that sounded preposterous, I'd be very reluctant to say "That will never work." Anyone who has studied the history of ideas, and especially the history of science, knows that's how big things start.

如果我认识的某个既是领域专家又是通情达理的人提出了一个听起来荒谬的想法，我会非常不愿意说“这永远不会奏效”。任何研究过思想史，尤其是科学史的人都知道，大事就是这样开始的。

Someone proposes an idea that sounds crazy, most people dismiss it, then

有人提出了一个听起来很疯狂的想法，大多数人都驳回了它，然后

it gradually takes over the world.

它逐渐接管世界。

Most implausible-sounding ideas are in fact bad and could be safely dismissed.

大多数听起来难以置信的想法实际上都是糟糕的，可以安全地予以驳回。

But not when they're proposed by reasonable domain experts.

但当它们是由合理的领域专家提出时就不会了。

If the person proposing the idea is reasonable, then they know how implausible it sounds.

如果提出这个想法的人是合理的，那么他们就会知道这听起来多么难以置信。

And yet they're proposing it anyway.

但他们还是提出了这个建议。

That suggests they know something you don't.

这表明他们知道一些你不知道的事情。

And if they have deep domain expertise, that's probably the source of it.

如果他们拥有深厚的领域专业知识，这可能就是其来源。

[ 1 ] Such ideas are not merely unsafe to dismiss, but disproportionately likely to be interesting.

[1] 这些想法不仅不值得忽视，而且很可能很有趣。

When the average person proposes an implausible-sounding idea, its implausibility is evidence of their incompetence.

当普通人提出一个听起来难以置信的想法时，它的难以置信就证明了他们的无能。

But when a reasonable domain expert does it, the situation is reversed.

但当一个理性的领域专家这样做时，情况就相反了。

There's something like an efficient market here: on average the ideas that seem craziest will, if correct, have the biggest effect.

这里有一个类似于有效市场的东西：平均而言，看似最疯狂的想法如果正确，将会产生最大的影响。

So if you can eliminate the theory that

所以如果你能消除这个理论

the person proposing an implausible-sounding idea is incompetent, its implausibility switches from evidence that it's boring to evidence that it's exciting.

提出听起来难以置信的想法的人是无能的，它的不可信性从证据表明它很无聊变成了证据表明它令人兴奋。

[ 2 ] Such ideas are not guaranteed to work.

[2]这样的想法并不保证行得通。

But they don't have to be.

但他们不必如此。

They just have to be sufficiently good bets — to have sufficiently high expected value.

它们必须是足够好的赌注——具有足够高的预期价值。

And I think on average they do.

我认为平均而言他们是这样做的。

I think if you bet on the entire set of implausible-sounding ideas proposed by

我认为如果你押注于提出的整套听起来难以置信的想法

reasonable domain experts, you'd end up net ahead.

合理的领域专家，你最终会获得净领先。

The reason is that everyone is too conservative.

原因是大家都太保守了。

The word "paradigm" is overused, but this is a case where it's warranted.

“范式”这个词被过度使用了，但在这种情况下它是有道理的。

Everyone is too much in the grip of the current paradigm.

每个人都太受当前范式的束缚。

Even the people who have the new ideas undervalue them initially.

即使是那些拥有新想法的人最初也会低估它们。

Which means that before they reach the stage of proposing them publicly, they've already subjected them to an excessively strict filter.

这意味着，在他们到达公开提议的阶段之前，他们已经对它们进行了过于严格的过滤。