It's Charisma, Stupid

(This has been rewritten; the original version was wrong about the 1968 election.) --> November 2004, corrected June 2006 Occam's razor says we should prefer the simpler of two explanations.

（此内容已被重写；原始版本关于 1968 年选举的内容是错误的。） --> 2004 年 11 月，2006 年 6 月更正 奥卡姆剃刀说我们应该选择两种解释中更简单的一个。

I begin by reminding readers of this principle because I'm about to propose a theory that will offend both liberals and conservatives.

我首先提醒读者注意这一原则，因为我即将提出一个会冒犯自由派和保守派的理论。

But Occam's razor means, in effect, that if you want to disagree with it, you have a hell of a coincidence to explain.

但实际上，奥卡姆剃刀意味着，如果你想不同意它，你就需要解释一个极其巧合的现象。

Theory: In US presidential elections, the more charismatic candidate wins.

理论：在美国总统选举中，更具魅力的候选人获胜。

People who write about politics, whether on the left or the right, have a consistent bias: they take politics seriously.

写政治文章的人，无论是左派还是右派，都有一个一贯的偏见：他们认真对待政治。

When one candidate beats another they look for political explanations.

当一位候选人击败另一位候选人时，他们会寻求政治解释。

The country is shifting to the left, or the right.

这个国家正在向左转，或者向右转。

And that sort of shift can certainly be the result of a presidential election, which

这种转变当然可能是总统选举的结果，总统选举

makes it easy to believe it was the cause.

让人很容易相信这是原因。

But when I think about why I voted for Clinton over the first George Bush, it wasn't because I was shifting to the left.

但当我思考为什么我投票支持克林顿而不是第一任乔治布什时，这并不是因为我转向左翼。

Clinton just seemed more dynamic.

克林顿看起来更有活力。

He seemed to want the job more.

他似乎更想要这份工作。

Bush seemed old and tired.

布什看起来又老又累。

I suspect it was the same for a lot of voters.

我怀疑很多选民也有同样的想法。

Clinton didn't represent any national shift leftward.

克林顿并不代表任何国家左倾。

[ 1 ] He was just more charismatic than George Bush or (God help us) Bob Dole.

[1] 他只是比乔治·布什或（上帝保佑我们）鲍勃·多尔更有魅力。

In 2000 we practically got a controlled experiment to prove it: Gore had Clinton's policies, but not his charisma, and he suffered proportionally.

2000年，我们实际上做了一个对照实验来证明这一点：戈尔有克林顿的政策，但没有他的魅力，他也相应地受到了影响。

[ 2 ] Same story in 2004.

[ 2 ] 2004 年同样的故事。

Kerry was smarter and more articulate than Bush, but rather a stiff.

克里比布什更聪明、更善于表达，但也比较僵硬。

And Kerry lost.

克里输了。

As I looked further back, I kept finding the same pattern.

当我进一步回顾时，我不断发现同样的模式。

Pundits said Carter beat Ford because the country distrusted the Republicans after Watergate.

专家表示，卡特击败福特是因为水门事件后该国不信任共和党。

And yet it also happened that Carter was famous for his big grin and folksy ways, and Ford for being a boring klutz.

然而，卡特也以笑容满面、平易近人的方式而闻名，而福特则以无聊的笨手笨脚而闻名。

Four years later, pundits said the country had lurched to the right.

四年后，专家们表示，这个国家已经向右倾斜。

But Reagan, a former actor, also happened to be even more charismatic than Carter (whose grin was somewhat less cheery after four stressful years in office).

但身为前演员的里根也恰好比卡特更有魅力（在紧张的四年任期后，卡特的笑容有些不那么愉快了）。

In 1984 the charisma gap between Reagan and Mondale was like that between Clinton and Dole, with similar results.

1984年，里根和蒙代尔之间的魅力差距就像克林顿和多尔之间的差距，结果相似。

The first George Bush managed to win in 1988, though he would later be vanquished by one of the most charismatic presidents ever, because in 1988 he was up against the notoriously uncharismatic Michael Dukakis.

第一届乔治·布什于 1988 年获胜，尽管他后来被有史以来最有魅力的总统之一击败，因为 1988 年他面对的是臭名昭著的缺乏魅力的迈克尔·杜卡基斯。

These are the elections I remember personally, but apparently the same pattern played out in 1964 and 1972.

这些是我个人记得的选举，但显然与 1964 年和 1972 年的情况相同。

The most recent counterexample appears to be 1968, when Nixon beat the more charismatic Hubert

最近的反例似乎是 1968 年，当时尼克松击败了更有魅力的休伯特

Humphrey.

汉弗莱.

But when you examine that election, it tends to support the charisma theory more than contradict it.

但当你审视那次选举时，你会发现它倾向于支持魅力理论，而不是反驳它。

As Joe McGinnis recounts in his famous book The Selling of the President 1968 , Nixon knew he had less charisma than Humphrey, and thus simply refused to debate him on TV.

正如乔·麦金尼斯在他的名著《1968年总统的出卖》中所叙述的那样，尼克松知道自己的魅力不如汉弗莱，因此干脆拒绝在电视上与他辩论。

He knew he couldn't afford to let the two of them be seen side by side.

他知道自己不能让他们两个人并肩而立。

Now a candidate probably couldn't get away with refusing to debate.

现在，候选人可能无法拒绝辩论。

But in 1968 the custom of televised debates was still evolving.

但到了 1968 年，电视辩论的习俗仍在演变。

In effect, Nixon won in 1968 because voters were never allowed to see the real Nixon.

事实上，尼克松在 1968 年获胜是因为选民从未被允许看到真正的尼克松。

All they saw were carefully scripted campaign spots.

他们看到的只是精心设计的竞选广告。

Oddly enough, the most recent true counterexample is probably 1960.

奇怪的是，最近的真实反例可能是 1960 年。

Though this election is usually given as an example of the power of TV, Kennedy apparently would not have won without fraud by party

尽管这次选举通常被视为电视力量的一个例子，但如果没有政党的欺诈，肯尼迪显然不会获胜

machines in Illinois and Texas.

伊利诺伊州和德克萨斯州的机器。

But TV was still young in 1960; only 87% of households had it.

但 1960 年电视还很年轻；只有 87% 的家庭拥有它。

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