The Equity Equation
July 2007 An investor wants to give you money for a certain percentage of your startup.
2007 年 7 月 一位投资者想为您的初创企业提供一定比例的资金。
Should you take it?
你应该接受它吗?
You're about to hire your first employee.
您即将雇用您的第一位员工。
How much stock should you give him?
你应该给他多少股票?
These are some of the hardest questions founders face.
这些是创始人面临的一些最棘手的问题。
And yet both have the same answer: 1/(1 - n) Whenever you're trading stock in your company for anything, whether it's money or an employee or a deal with another company, the test
然而两者都有相同的答案:1/(1 - n) 每当你用公司的股票交换任何东西时,无论是金钱、员工还是与另一家公司的交易,测试
for whether to do it is the same.
对于是否做是一样的。
You should give up n% of your company if what you trade it for improves your average outcome enough that the (100 - n)% you have left is worth more than the whole company was before.
如果你所交易的公司足以改善你的平均结果,以至于你剩下的 (100 - n)% 的价值比整个公司之前的价值更高,那么你应该放弃公司的 n%。
For example, if an investor wants to buy half your company, how much does that investment have to improve your average outcome for you to break even?
例如,如果一位投资者想要购买您一半的公司,那么该投资必须在多大程度上改善您的平均业绩才能实现收支平衡?
Obviously it has to double: if you trade half
显然它必须加倍:如果你交易一半
your company for something that more than doubles the company's average outcome, you're net ahead.
如果你的公司的业绩是公司平均业绩的两倍以上,那么你就处于净领先地位。
You have half as big a share of something worth more than twice as much.
对于价值两倍以上的东西,你拥有一半的份额。
In the general case, if n is the fraction of the company you're giving up, the deal is a good one if it makes the company worth more than 1/(1 - n).
一般情况下,如果 n 是您要放弃的公司的一部分,那么如果该交易使公司价值超过 1/(1 - n),那么这笔交易就是一笔不错的交易。
For example, suppose Y Combinator offers to fund you in return for 7% of your company.
例如,假设 Y Combinator 愿意为您提供资金,以换取您公司 7% 的股份。
In this case, n is .07 and 1/(1 - n) is 1.075.
在这种情况下,n 为 0.07,1/(1 - n) 为 1.075。
So you should take the deal if you believe we can improve your average outcome by more than 7.5%.
因此,如果您相信我们可以将您的平均结果提高 7.5% 以上,您就应该接受这笔交易。
If we improve your outcome by 10%, you're net ahead, because the remaining .93 you hold is worth .93 x 1.1 = 1.023.
如果我们将您的结果提高 10%,您就处于净领先地位,因为您持有的剩余 0.93 的价值为 0.93 x 1.1 = 1.023。
[ <font color=#777777>1 ] One of the things the equity equation shows us is that, financially at least, taking money from a top VC firm can be a really good deal.
[ <font color=#777777>1 ] 股权方程向我们展示的一件事是,至少在财务上,从顶级风险投资公司获得资金可能是一笔非常划算的交易。
Greg Mcadoo from Sequoia recently said at a YC dinner that when
红杉资本的格雷格·麦卡杜 (Greg Mcadoo) 最近在 YC 晚宴上表示,当
Sequoia invests alone they like to take about 30% of a company.
红杉资本喜欢单独投资一家公司大约 30% 的股份。
1/.7 = 1.43, meaning that deal is worth taking if they can improve your outcome by more than 43%.
1/.7 = 1.43,这意味着如果可以将您的结果提高 43% 以上,那么该交易就值得接受。
For the average startup, that would be an extraordinary bargain.
对于普通的初创公司来说,这将是一笔非常划算的交易。
It would improve the average startup's prospects by more than 43% just to be able to say they were funded by Sequoia, even if they never actually got the money.
只要能够说自己得到了红杉资本的资助,即使初创公司从未真正拿到资金,他们的平均前景也会提高 43% 以上。
The reason Sequoia is such a good deal is that the percentage of
红杉资本之所以如此划算,是因为
the company they take is artificially low.
他们选择的公司人为压低。
They don't even try to get market price for their investment; they limit their holdings to leave the founders enough stock to feel the company is still theirs.
他们甚至不尝试获取投资的市场价格;他们限制自己的持股,为创始人留下足够的股票,让创始人感觉公司仍然是他们的。
The catch is that Sequoia gets about 6000 business plans a year and funds about 20 of them, so the odds of getting this great deal are 1 in 300.
问题是红杉资本每年收到约 6000 个商业计划,并为其中约 20 个提供资金,因此获得这笔巨额交易的几率为三百分之一。
The companies that make it through are not average startups.
成功渡过难关的公司都不是普通的初创公司。
Of course, there are other factors to consider in a VC deal.
当然,风险投资交易中还需要考虑其他因素。
It's never just a straight trade of money for stock.
这绝不只是金钱换股票的直接交易。
But if it were, taking money from a top firm would generally be a bargain.
但如果是这样,从顶级公司拿钱通常会很划算。
You can use the same formula when giving stock to employees, but it works in the other direction.
在向员工发放股票时,您可以使用相同的公式,但它的作用却相反。
If i is the average outcome for the company with the addition of some new person, then they're worth n such that i = 1/(1 - n).
如果 i 是公司增加一些新员工后的平均结果,那么他们的价值为 n,使得 i = 1/(1 - n)。
Which means n = (i - 1)/i.
这意味着 n = (i - 1)/i。
For example, suppose you're just two founders and you want to hire an additional hacker who's so good you feel he'll increase the average outcome of the whole company by 20%.
例如,假设您只有两名创始人,并且您想再雇用一名出色的黑客,您认为他会将整个公司的平均成果提高 20%。
n = (1.2 - 1)/1.2 = .167.
n = (1.2 - 1)/1.2 = .167。
So you'll break even if you trade 16.7% of the company for him.
因此,即使你用公司 16.7% 的股份换他,你也会收支平衡。
That doesn't mean 16.7% is the right amount of stock to give him.
这并不意味着 16.7% 的股票数量适合给他。
Stock is not the only cost of hiring someone: there's usually salary and overhead as well.
股票并不是雇用某人的唯一成本:通常还有工资和管理费用。
And if the company merely breaks even on the
如果公司仅仅收支平衡
deal, there's no reason to do it.
交易,没有理由这样做。
I think to translate salary and overhead into stock you should multiply the annual rate by about 1.5.
我认为要将工资和管理费用换算成库存,您应该将年利率乘以 1.5 左右。
Most startups grow fast or die; if you die you don't have to pay the guy, and if you grow fast you'll be paying next year's salary out of next year's valuation, which should be 3x this year's.
大多数初创公司要么快速成长,要么消亡;如果你死了,你就不必付钱给这个人,如果你成长得很快,你将支付明年估值的明年工资,这应该是今年的 3 倍。
If your valuation grows 3x a year, the total cost in stock of a new hire's salary and overhead is 1.5
如果您的估值每年增长 3 倍,则新员工工资和管理费用的库存总成本为 1.5