How Not to Die
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获得 Y Combinator 的资助。
</td > August 2007 (This is a talk I gave at the last Y Combinator dinner of the summer.
</td> 2007 年 8 月（这是我在夏季最后一次 Y Combinator 晚宴上发表的演讲。
Usually we don't have a speaker at the last dinner; it's more of a party.
通常我们在最后的晚餐上没有发言者；这更像是一场聚会。
But it seemed worth spoiling the atmosphere if I could save some of the startups from preventable deaths.
但如果我能拯救一些初创公司免遭可预防的死亡，那么破坏气氛似乎是值得的。
So at the last minute I cooked up this rather
所以在最后一刻我做了这个
grim talk.
严峻的谈话。
I didn't mean this as an essay; I wrote it down because I only had two hours before dinner and think fastest while writing.) A couple days ago I told a reporter that we expected about a third of the companies we funded to succeed.
我并不是说这是一篇文章；我只是想写一篇文章。我写下来是因为晚餐前只有两个小时，而且写作时思考速度最快。）几天前，我告诉记者，我们预计我们资助的公司中大约有三分之一会成功。
Actually I was being conservative.
其实我一直很保守。
I'm hoping it might be as much as a half.
我希望它可能是一半。
Wouldn't it be amazing if we could achieve a 50% success rate?
如果我们能达到50%的成功率，那不是很神奇吗？
Another way of saying that is that half of you are going to die.
另一种说法是你们一半的人都会死。
Phrased
措辞
that way, it doesn't sound good at all.
这样一来，听起来一点都不好。
In fact, it's kind of weird when you think about it, because our definition of success is that the founders get rich.
事实上，仔细想想，这有点奇怪，因为我们对成功的定义是创始人致富。
If half the startups we fund succeed, then half of you are going to get rich and the other half are going to get nothing.
如果我们资助的一半初创公司取得了成功，那么你们中的一半人将致富，而另一半人将一无所获。
If you can just avoid dying, you get rich.
如果你能避免死亡，你就会变得富有。
That sounds like a joke, but it's actually a pretty good description of what happens in a
这听起来像个笑话，但实际上很好地描述了发生在
typical startup.
典型的启动。
It certainly describes what happened in Viaweb.
它确实描述了 Viaweb 发生的事情。
We avoided dying till we got rich.
我们避免死亡，直到我们变得富有。
It was really close, too.
它也非常接近。
When we were visiting Yahoo to talk about being acquired, we had to interrupt everything and borrow one of their conference rooms to talk down an investor who was about to back out of a new funding round we needed to stay alive.
当我们访问雅虎谈论被收购的事情时，我们不得不中断一切并借用他们的一间会议室来说服一位即将退出我们生存所需的新一轮融资的投资者。
So even in the middle of getting rich we were fighting off the grim reaper.
因此，即使在致富的过程中，我们也在与死神作斗争。
You may have heard that quote about luck consisting of opportunity meeting preparation.
您可能听说过关于运气的说法，其中包括机会会议的准备。
You've now done the preparation.
现在你已经完成了准备工作。
The work you've done so far has, in effect, put you in a position to get lucky: you can now get rich by not letting your company die.
到目前为止，你所做的工作实际上让你变得幸运：你现在可以通过不让你的公司倒闭来致富。
That's more than most people have.
这比大多数人都多。
So let's talk about how not to die.
那么我们来谈谈如何不死。
We've done this five times now, and we've seen a bunch of startups die.
我们已经这样做了五次了，我们已经看到了很多初创公司的倒闭。
About 10 of them so far.
到目前为止大约有10个。
We don't know exactly what happens
我们不知道到底会发生什么
when they die, because they generally don't die loudly and heroically.
当他们死的时候，因为他们通常不会大声而英勇地死去。
Mostly they crawl off somewhere and die.
大多数情况下，它们会爬到某个地方然后死去。
For us the main indication of impending doom is when we don't hear from you.
对我们来说，末日即将来临的主要迹象是当我们没有收到您的消息时。
When we haven't heard from, or about, a startup for a couple months, that's a bad sign.
当我们几个月没有收到一家初创公司的消息或关于该公司的消息时，这是一个不好的迹象。
If we send them an email asking what's up, and they don't reply, that's a really bad sign.
如果我们向他们发送电子邮件询问发生了什么事，而他们没有回复，那是一个非常糟糕的迹象。
So far that is a 100% accurate predictor of death.
到目前为止，这是 100% 准确的死亡预测。
Whereas if a startup regularly does new deals and releases and either sends us mail or shows up at YC events, they're probably going to live.
然而，如果一家初创公司定期进行新的交易和发布，并向我们发送邮件或出现在 YC 活动中，那么他们可能会生存下去。
I realize this will sound naive, but maybe the linkage works in both directions.
我意识到这听起来很天真，但也许这种联系是双向的。
Maybe if you can arrange that we keep hearing from you, you won't die.
如果你能安排我们继续收到你的消息，也许你就不会死。
That may not be so naive as it sounds.
这可能并不像听起来那么天真。
You've probably noticed that having dinners every Tuesday with us and the other founders
您可能已经注意到，每周二与我们和其他创始人共进晚餐
causes you to get more done than you would otherwise, because every dinner is a mini Demo Day.
使您比其他方式完成更多工作，因为每顿晚餐都是一个迷你演示日。
Every dinner is a kind of a deadline.
每顿晚餐都是一个最后期限。
So the mere constraint of staying in regular contact with us will push you to make things happen, because otherwise you'll be embarrassed to tell us that you haven't done anything new since the last time we talked.
因此，仅仅与我们保持定期联系就会促使你让事情发生，因为否则你会不好意思告诉我们自上次我们谈话以来你没有做任何新的事情。
If this works, it would be an amazing hack.
如果这可行的话，这将是一个了不起的黑客。
It would be pretty
会很漂亮
cool if merely by staying in regular contact with us you could get rich.
如果仅仅通过与我们保持定期联系就可以致富，那就太好了。
It sounds crazy, but there's a good chance that would work.
这听起来很疯狂，但很有可能行得通。
A variant is to stay in touch with other YC-funded startups.
一种变体是与其他 YC 资助的初创公司保持联系。
There is now a whole neighborhood of them in San Francisco.
现在旧金山有一整片街区。
If you move there, the peer pressure that made you work harder all summer will continue to operate.
如果你搬到那里，让你整个夏天更加努力工作的同侪压力将继续存在。
When startups die, the official cause of death is always either
当初创公司死亡时，官方的死亡原因总是
running out of money or a critical founder bailing.
资金耗尽或关键创始人退出。
Often the two occur simultaneously.
两者常常同时发生。
But I think the underlying cause is usually that they've become demoralized.
但我认为根本原因通常是他们士气低落。
You rarely hear of a startup that's working around the clock doing deals and pumping out new features, and dies because they can't pay their bills and their ISP unplugs their server.
你很少听说过一家初创公司昼夜不停地进行交易并推出新功能，但最终却因为无法支付账单以及 ISP 拔掉服务器而倒闭。
Startups rarely die in mid keystroke.
初创公司很少会在击键过程中死亡。
So keep typing!
所以继续打字吧！
If so many startups get demoralized and fail when merely by hanging on they could get rich, you have to assume that running a startup can be demoralizing.
如果有这么多初创公司士气低落并失败，而只要坚持下去就可以致富，那么你必须假设经营一家初创公司可能会士气低落。
That is certainly true.
这当然是真的。
I've been there, and that's why I've never done another startup.
我去过那里，这就是为什么我从未再创业过。
The low points in a startup are just unbelievably low.
初创公司的低点低得令人难以置信。
I bet even Google had moments where things seemed hopeless.
我敢打赌，就连谷歌也有过看起来毫无希望的时刻。
Knowing that should help.
知道这一点应该会有所帮助。
If you know it's going to feel terrible
如果你知道那会感觉很糟糕
sometimes, then when it feels terrible you won't think "ouch, this feels terrible, I give up." It feels that way for everyone.
有时，当感觉很糟糕时，你不会想“哎呀，这感觉很糟糕，我放弃了。”每个人都有这种感觉。
And if you just hang on, things will probably get better.
如果你坚持下去，事情可能会变得更好。
The metaphor people use to describe the way a startup feels is at least a roller coaster and not drowning.
人们用来形容初创公司感觉的比喻是至少坐过山车而不是溺水。
You don't just sink and sink; there are ups after the downs.
你不只是不断地沉沦；有起有落。
Another feeling that seems alarming but is in fact normal in a
另一种感觉似乎令人震惊，但实际上在家庭中很正常。
startup is the feeling that what you're doing isn't working.
启动是一种你正在做的事情不起作用的感觉。
The reason you can expect to feel this is that what you do probably won't work.
你之所以会有这种感觉，是因为你所做的事情可能行不通。
Startups almost never get it right the first time.
初创公司几乎永远不会第一次就做对。
Much more commonly you launch something, and no one cares.
更常见的是，你推出了一些东西，但没有人关心。
Don't assume when this happens that you've failed.
当这种情况发生时，不要认为你失败了。
That's normal for startups.
这对于初创公司来说很正常。
But don't sit around doing nothing.
但不要坐着无所事事。
Iterate.
迭代。
I like Paul Buchheit's suggestion of trying to make something that
我喜欢 Paul Buchheit 的建议，即尝试做一些东西
at least someone really loves.
至少有人真心相爱。
As long as you've made something that a few users are ecstatic about, you're on the right track.
只要你做出了一些让一些用户欣喜若狂的东西，你就走在正确的道路上。
It will be good for your morale to have even a handful of users who really love you, and startups run on morale.
即使只有少数真正爱你的用户，也会对你的士气有好处，而初创公司也有士气。
But also it will tell you what to focus on.
但它也会告诉你要关注什么。
What is it about you that they love?
他们爱你什么？
Can you do more of that?
你能做更多这样的事吗？
Where can you find more people who love that sort of thing?
哪里可以找到更多热爱此类事物的人？
As long as you have some core of users
只要你有一定的核心用户
who love you, all you have to do is expand it.
爱你的人，你所要做的就是扩大它。
It may take a while, but as long as you keep plugging away, you'll win in the end.
这可能需要一段时间，但只要你坚持下去，你最终就会获胜。
Both Blogger and Delicious did that.
Blogger 和 Delicious 都这么做了。
Both took years to succeed.
两者都花了数年时间才取得成功。
But both began with a core of fanatically devoted users, and all Evan and Joshua had to do was grow that core incrementally.
但两者都是从狂热的忠实用户核心开始的，埃文和约书亚所要做的就是逐步发展这个核心。
Wufoo is on the same trajectory now.
Wufoo 现在也处于同样的轨道上。
So when you release something and it seems like no one cares, look
所以当你发布了一些东西并且似乎没有人关心时，看看
more closely.
更密切地。
Are there zero users who really love you, or is there at least some little group that does?
真正爱你的用户是否为零，或者至少有一小群人真正爱你？
It's quite possible there will be zero.
很有可能为零。
In that case, tweak your product and try again.
在这种情况下，请调整您的产品并重试。
Every one of you is working on a space that contains at least one winning permutation somewhere in it.
你们每个人都在研究一个空间，其中的某个地方至少包含一种获胜的排列。
If you just keep trying, you'll find it.
如果你继续尝试，你就会找到它。
Let me mention some things not to do.
让我提一下一些不应该做的事情。
The number one thing not to
第一件事不要
do is other things.
做的是其他事情。
If you find yourself saying a sentence that ends with "but we're going to keep working on the startup," you are in big trouble.
如果你发现自己说的一句话以“但我们将继续致力于初创公司”结尾，那么你就有大麻烦了。
Bob's going to grad school, but we're going to keep working on the startup.
鲍勃要去读研究生，但我们将继续致力于创业。
We're moving back to Minnesota, but we're going to keep working on the startup.
我们将搬回明尼苏达州，但我们将继续致力于初创公司。
We're taking on some consulting projects, but we're going to keep working on the startup.
我们正在开展一些咨询项目，但我们将继续致力于初创公司。
You may as well just translate these to "we're giving up on the
你不妨将其翻译为“我们正在放弃
startup, but we're not willing to admit that to ourselves," because that's what it means most of the time.
启动，但我们不愿意向自己承认这一点，”因为这就是大多数时候的意思。
A startup is so hard that working on it can't be preceded by "but." In particular, don't go to graduate school, and don't start other projects.
创业是如此艰难，以至于在创业之前不能说“但是”。特别是，不要去读研究生，也不要开始其他项目。
Distraction is fatal to startups.
分心对于初创公司来说是致命的。
Going to (or back to) school is a huge predictor of death because in addition to the distraction it gives you something to say you're doing.
去（或返回）学校是死亡的一个重要预测因素，因为除了分散注意力之外，它还让你有事情可以说你正在做的事情。
If you're
如果你是
only doing a startup, then if the startup fails, you fail.
只做启动，那么如果启动失败，你就失败了。
If you're in grad school and your startup fails, you can say later "Oh yeah, we had this startup on the side when I was in grad school, but it didn't go anywhere." You can't use euphemisms like "didn't go anywhere" for something that's your only occupation.
如果你在读研究生，而你的创业公司失败了，你可以稍后说：“哦，是的，当我在读研究生的时候，我们有过这家创业公司，但它没有取得任何进展。”你不能用“哪儿也没去”之类的委婉说法来形容你唯一的职业。
People won't let you.
人家不会让你的。
One of the most interesting things we've discovered from working
我们在工作中发现的最有趣的事情之一
on Y Combinator is that founders are more motivated by the fear of looking bad than by the hope of getting millions of dollars.
Y Combinator 的观点是，创始人更多的动机是担心自己看起来很糟糕，而不是希望获得数百万美元。
So if you want to get millions of dollars, put yourself in a position where failure will be public and humiliating.
因此，如果你想获得数百万美元，请将自己置于失败将被公开和羞辱的境地。
When we first met the founders of Octopart , they seemed very smart, but not a great bet to succeed, because they didn't seem especially committed.
当我们第一次见到 Octopart 的创始人时，他们看起来非常聪明，但并不是成功的好赌注，因为他们似乎并没有特别投入。
One of the two founders was still in grad school.
两位创始人之一仍在读研究生。
It
它
was the usual story: he'd drop out if it looked like the startup was taking off.
这是常见的故事：如果初创公司看起来正在起飞，他就会退出。
Since then he has not only dropped out of grad school, but appeared full length in Newsweek with the word "Billionaire" printed across his chest.
从那时起，他不仅从研究生院退学，还全身心地出现在《新闻周刊》上，胸前印着“亿万富翁”的字样。
He just cannot fail now.
他现在不能失败。
Everyone he knows has seen that picture.
他认识的每个人都看过那张照片。
Girls who dissed him in high school have seen it.
高中时鄙视过他的女孩都看过。
His mom probably has it on the fridge.
他妈妈可能把它放在冰箱上。
It would be unthinkably humiliating to fail now.
如果现在失败，那将是难以想象的耻辱。
At this point he is committed
此时他决心
to fight to the death.
誓死战斗。
I wish every startup we funded could appear in a Newsweek article describing them as the next generation of billionaires, because then none of them would be able to give up.
我希望我们资助的每一家初创公司都能出现在《新闻周刊》的文章中，将他们描述为下一代亿万富翁，因为那样他们就不会放弃。
The success rate would be 90%.
成功率将是90%。
I'm not kidding.
我不是在开玩笑。
When we first knew the Octoparts they were lighthearted, cheery guys.
当我们第一次认识 Octoparts 时，他们是一群无忧无虑、开朗的家伙。
Now when we talk to them they seem grimly determined.
现在，当我们与他们交谈时，他们似乎下定了决心。
The electronic parts distributors are trying to squash them to keep
电子零件经销商正试图压制他们以保持
their monopoly pricing.
他们的垄断定价。
(If it strikes you as odd that people still order electronic parts out of thick paper catalogs in 2007, there's a reason for that.
（如果您对 2007 年人们仍然从厚纸质目录中订购电子零件感到奇怪，那么这是有原因的。
The distributors want to prevent the transparency that comes from having prices online.) I feel kind of bad that we've transformed these guys from lighthearted to grimly determined.
分销商希望阻止在线定价带来的透明度。）我感到有点遗憾，我们已经将这些家伙从无忧无虑变成了坚定不移。
But that comes with the territory.
但这是随着领土而来的。
If a startup succeeds, you get
如果创业成功，你会得到
millions of dollars, and you don't get that kind of money just by asking for it.
数百万美元，而你仅仅靠要求是无法得到这笔钱的。
You have to assume it takes some amount of pain.
你必须假设这需要一定程度的痛苦。
And however tough things get for the Octoparts, I predict they'll succeed.
无论 Octoparts 面临怎样的困难，我预测他们都会成功。
They may have to morph themselves into something totally different, but they won't just crawl off and die.
他们可能不得不将自己变成完全不同的东西，但他们不会只是爬行而死。
They're smart; they're working in a promising field; and they just cannot give up.
他们很聪明；他们在一个有前途的领域工作；他们就是不能放弃。
All of you guys already have the first two.
你们所有人都已经有了前两个。
You're all smart and
你们都很聪明并且
working on promising ideas.
致力于有前途的想法。
Whether you end up among the living or the dead comes down to the third ingredient, not giving up.
无论你最终是活人还是死人，都取决于第三个要素，就是不放弃。
So I'll tell you now: bad shit is coming.
所以我现在告诉你：糟糕的事情即将来临。
It always is in a startup.
它始终处于启动状态。
The odds of getting from launch to liquidity without some kind of disaster happening are one in a thousand.
从启动到流动性而不发生某种灾难的几率是千分之一。
So don't get demoralized.
所以不要灰心丧气。
When the disaster strikes, just say to yourself, ok, this was what Paul was talking about.
当灾难袭来时，只要对自己说，好吧，这就是保罗所说的。
What did he say to do?
他说要做什么？
Oh, yeah.
哦，是的。
Don't
不