Why to Start a Startup in a Bad Economy

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获得 Y Combinator 的资助。

</td > October 2008 The economic situation is apparently so grim that some experts fear we may be in for a stretch as bad as the mid seventies.

</td> 2008 年 10 月 经济形势显然如此严峻，以至于一些专家担心我们可能会陷入七十年代中期那样糟糕的时期。

When Microsoft and Apple were founded.

微软和苹果成立时。

As those examples suggest, a recession may not be such a bad time to start a startup.

正如这些例子所表明的那样，经济衰退对于创业来说可能并不是一个糟糕的时机。

I'm not claiming it's a particularly good time

我并不是说现在是一个特别好的时机

either.

要么。

The truth is more boring: the state of the economy doesn't matter much either way.

事实更无聊：经济状况无论如何都不重要。

If we've learned one thing from funding so many startups, it's that they succeed or fail based on the qualities of the founders.

如果说我们从资助如此多的初创公司中学到了一件事，那就是它们的成功或失败取决于创始人的品质。

The economy has some effect, certainly, but as a predictor of success it's rounding error compared to the founders.

经济当然有一定的影响，但作为成功的预测指标，与创始人相比，它是四舍五入的误差。

Which means that what matters is who you are, not when you do it.

这意味着重要的是你是谁，而不是你何时做。

If you're the right sort of person, you'll win even in a bad economy.

如果你是正确的人，即使在经济不景气的情况下你也会获胜。

And if you're not, a good economy won't save you.

如果你不这样做，那么良好的经济也救不了你。

Someone who thinks "I better not start a startup now, because the economy is so bad" is making the same mistake as the people who thought during the Bubble "all I have to do is start a startup, and I'll be rich." So if you want to improve your chances, you should think far more about who you can recruit as a cofounder than the state of the

那些认为“我现在最好不要创办一家初创公司，因为经济如此糟糕”的人，与那些在泡沫时期认为“我所要做的就是创办一家初创公司，我就会变得富有”的人犯了同样的错误。因此，如果你想提高机会，你应该更多地考虑你可以招募谁作为联合创始人，而不是考虑公司的状况。

economy.

经济。

And if you're worried about threats to the survival of your company, don't look for them in the news.

如果您担心公司的生存受到威胁，请不要在新闻中寻找它们。

Look in the mirror.

照照镜子。

But for any given team of founders, would it not pay to wait till the economy is better before taking the leap?

但对于任何特定的创始人团队来说，等到经济好转后再采取行动不是值得的吗？

If you're starting a restaurant, maybe, but not if you're working on technology.

如果你要开一家餐馆，也许可以，但如果你从事技术工作则不然。

Technology progresses more or less independently of the stock market.

技术的进步或多或少独立于股票市场。

So for any given idea, the payoff for acting fast in a bad economy

因此，对于任何给定的想法，在经济不景气时快速行动的回报

will be higher than for waiting.

将高于等待。

Microsoft's first product was a Basic interpreter for the Altair.

Microsoft 的第一个产品是 Altair 的 Basic 解释器。

That was exactly what the world needed in 1975, but if Gates and Allen had decided to wait a few years, it would have been too late.

这正是 1975 年世界所需要的，但如果盖茨和艾伦决定再等几年，那就太晚了。

Of course, the idea you have now won't be the last you have.

当然，您现在的想法不会是您最后的想法。

There are always new ideas.

总是有新的想法。

But if you have a specific idea you want to act on, act now.

但如果您有一个想要付诸行动的具体想法，请立即行动。

That doesn't mean you can ignore the economy.

这并不意味着你可以忽视经济。

Both customers and investors

无论是客户还是投资者

will be feeling pinched.

会有被捏的感觉。

It's not necessarily a problem if customers feel pinched: you may even be able to benefit from it, by making things that save money .

如果客户感到手头拮据，这不一定是问题：您甚至可以通过制作省钱的产品来从中受益。

Startups often make things cheaper, so in that respect they're better positioned to prosper in a recession than big companies.

初创公司通常会让产品变得更便宜，因此在这方面，它们比大公司更有能力在经济衰退中繁荣发展。

Investors are more of a problem.

投资者更是一个问题。

Startups generally need to raise some amount of external funding, and investors tend to be less

初创企业一般需要筹集一定数量的外部资金，而投资者往往较少

willing to invest in bad times.

愿意在困难时期进行投资。

They shouldn't be.

他们不应该这样。

Everyone knows you're supposed to buy when times are bad and sell when times are good.

每个人都知道你应该在形势不好的时候买入，在形势好的时候卖出。

But of course what makes investing so counterintuitive is that in equity markets, good times are defined as everyone thinking it's time to buy.

但当然，投资之所以如此违反直觉，是因为在股票市场上，好时机被定义为每个人都认为是时候买入了。

You have to be a contrarian to be correct, and by definition only a minority of investors can be.

你必须是逆向投资者才能保持正确，而根据定义，只有少数投资者可以。

So just as investors in 1999 were tripping over one another trying

因此，正如 1999 年的投资者在尝试时互相绊倒一样

to buy into lousy startups, investors in 2009 will presumably be reluctant to invest even in good ones.

为了买入糟糕的初创公司，2009 年的投资者可能会不愿意投资，即使是优秀的初创公司。

You'll have to adapt to this.

你必须适应这一点。

But that's nothing new: startups always have to adapt to the whims of investors.

但这并不是什么新鲜事：初创公司总是必须适应投资者的突发奇想。

Ask any founder in any economy if they'd describe investors as fickle, and watch the face they make.

询问任何经济体中的任何一位创始人，他们是否会将投资者描述为善变的，并观察他们的表情。

Last year you had to be prepared to explain how your startup was viral.

去年，你必须准备好解释你的初创公司是如何病毒式传播的。

Next year you'll have to explain how

明年你必须解释如何

it's recession-proof.

它可以抵御经济衰退。

(Those are both good things to be.

（这些都是好事。

The mistake investors make is not the criteria they use but that they always tend to focus on one to the exclusion of the rest.) Fortunately the way to make a startup recession-proof is to do exactly what you should do anyway: run it as cheaply as possible.

投资者所犯的错误不在于他们使用的标准，而在于他们总是倾向于关注其中一个标准而忽略其他标准。）幸运的是，让初创公司抵御经济衰退的方法是准确地做你应该做的事情：尽可能便宜地运营它。

For years I've been telling founders that the surest route to success is to be the cockroaches of the corporate world.

多年来，我一直告诉创始人，成功的最可靠途径就是成为企业界的蟑螂。

The immediate

即时的

cause of death in a startup is always running out of money.

初创公司的死因总是资金耗尽。

So the cheaper your company is to operate, the harder it is to kill.

因此，你的公司运营成本越低，被消灭的难度就越大。

And fortunately it has gotten very cheap to run a startup.

幸运的是，经营一家初创公司已经变得非常便宜。

A recession will if anything make it cheaper still.

如果说经济衰退有什么影响的话，它会让房价变得更便宜。

If nuclear winter really is here, it may be safer to be a cockroach even than to keep your job.

如果核冬天真的来了，做一只蟑螂可能比保住工作更安全。

Customers may drop off individually if they can no longer afford you, but you're not going to lose them

如果客户无法再负担得起您的费用，他们可能会单独离开，但您不会失去他们

all at once; markets don't "reduce headcount." What if you quit your job to start a startup that fails, and you can't find another?

一下子就完成了；市场不会“减少员工数量”。如果你辞掉工作去创办一家失败的公司，并且找不到另一家公司怎么办？

That could be a problem if you work in sales or marketing.

如果您从事销售或营销工作，这可能是一个问题。

In those fields it can take months to find a new job in a bad economy.

在这些领域，在经济不景气的情况下，可能需要几个月的时间才能找到新工作。

But hackers seem to be more liquid.

但黑客似乎更具流动性。

Good hackers can always get some kind of job.

优秀的黑客总能找到某种工作。

It might not be your dream job, but you're not going to starve.

这可能不是你梦想的工作，但你不会挨饿。

Another advantage of bad times is that there's less competition.

困难时期的另一个好处是竞争较少。

Technology trains leave the station at regular intervals.

科技列车定期从车站出发。

If everyone else is cowering in a corner, you may have a whole car to yourself.

如果其他人都躲在角落里，你可能就拥有一整辆车了。

You're an investor too.

你也是投资者。

As a founder, you're buying stock with work: the reason Larry and Sergey are so rich is not so much that they've done work worth tens of billions of dollars, but that they were the first investors in Google.

作为创始人，你是用工作来购买股票：拉里和谢尔盖之所以如此富有，并不是因为他们做了价值数百亿美元的工作，而是因为他们是谷歌的第一批投资者。

And like any investor you

和任何投资者一样，您

should buy when times are bad.

应该在形势不好的时候购买。

Were you nodding in agreement, thinking "stupid investors" a few paragraphs ago when I was talking about how investors are reluctant to put money into startups in bad markets, even though that's the time they should rationally be most willing to buy?

几段前，当我谈论投资者如何不愿意向市场不佳的初创公司投入资金时，你是否点头同意，认为“愚蠢的投资者”，即使那是他们理性上最愿意购买的时候？

Well, founders aren't much better.

嗯，创始人也好不了多少。

When times get bad, hackers go to grad school.

当形势不好时，黑客就会去读研究生。

And no doubt that will happen this time too.

毫无疑问，这一次也会发生这种情况。

In fact, what makes

事实上，是什么让

the preceding paragraph true is that most readers won't believe it—at least to the extent of acting on it.

前一段内容是真实的，但大多数读者不会相信它——至少不会相信它会付诸行动。

So maybe a recession is a good time to start a startup.

因此，也许经济衰退是创业的好时机。

It's hard to say whether advantages like lack of competition outweigh disadvantages like reluctant investors.

很难说缺乏竞争等优势是否大于投资者不情愿等劣势。

But it doesn't matter much either way.

但无论哪种方式都没有多大关系。

It's the people that matter.

重要的是人。

And for a given set of people working on a given technology, the time to act is always

对于研究特定技术的特定人员来说，采取行动的时间总是