The High-Res Society

December 2008 For nearly all of history the success of a society was proportionate to its ability to assemble large and disciplined organizations.

2008 年 12 月 几乎在整个历史上，一个社会的成功与其组建大型、纪律严明的组织的能力成正比。

Those who bet on economies of scale generally won, which meant the largest organizations were the most successful ones.

那些押注于规模经济的人通常会获胜，这意味着最大的组织是最成功的组织。

Things have already changed so much that this is hard for us to believe, but till just a few decades ago the largest organizations tended to be the most progressive.

事情已经发生了如此之大的变化，以至于我们很难相信，但直到几十年前，最大的组织往往是最进步的。

An ambitious kid graduating

一个有野心的孩子即将毕业

from college in 1960 wanted to work in the huge, gleaming offices of Ford, or General Electric, or NASA.

1960 年从大学毕业的人想在福特、通用电气或美国国家航空航天局 (NASA) 宽敞明亮的办公室里工作。

Small meant small-time.

小意味着小时间。

Small in 1960 didn't mean a cool little startup.

1960 年的小型企业并不意味着很酷的小型初创企业。

It meant uncle Sid's shoe store.

意思是席德叔叔的鞋店。

When I grew up in the 1970s, the idea of the "corporate ladder" was still very much alive.

当我在 20 世纪 70 年代长大时，“企业阶梯”的想法仍然很活跃。

The standard plan was to try to get into a good college, from which one would be drafted into some organization

标准计划是努力进入一所好大学，从中被选入某个组织

and then rise to positions of gradually increasing responsibility.

然后晋升到职责逐渐增加的职位。

The more ambitious merely hoped to climb the same ladder faster.

更有野心的人只是希望能够更快地攀登同样的阶梯。

[ 1 ] But in the late twentieth century something changed.

[1] 但到了二十世纪末，情况发生了变化。

It turned out that economies of scale were not the only force at work.

事实证明，规模经济并不是唯一的作用力。

Particularly in technology, the increase in speed one could get from smaller groups started to trump the advantages of size.

特别是在技术领域，从较小的团队中获得的速度的提高开始超越规模的优势。

The future turned out to be different from the one we were expecting

未来却与我们想象的不一样

in 1970.

1970年。

The domed cities and flying cars we expected have failed to materialize.

我们期待的圆顶城市和飞行汽车未能实现。

But fortunately so have the jumpsuits with badges indicating our specialty and rank.

但幸运的是，连身衣上也有徽章，表明我们的专业和等级。

Instead of being dominated by a few, giant tree-structured organizations, it's now looking like the economy of the future will be a fluid network of smaller, independent units.

现在看来，未来的经济将不再是由少数几个巨型树状结构组织主导，而是由较小的独立单位组成的流动网络。

It's not so much that large organizations stopped working.

并不是说大型组织停止了工作。

There's

有

no evidence that famously successful organizations like the Roman army or the British East India Company were any less afflicted by protocol and politics than organizations of the same size today.

没有证据表明罗马军队或英国东印度公司等著名的成功组织比当今同等规模的组织更少受到礼节和政治的困扰。

But they were competing against opponents who couldn't change the rules on the fly by discovering new technology.

但他们面对的对手无法通过发现新技术来即时改变规则。

Now it turns out the rule "large and disciplined organizations win" needs to have a qualification appended: "at games that change slowly." No one knew

现在事实证明，“大型且纪律严明的组织获胜”规则需要附加一个限定条件：“在变化缓慢的游戏中”。没有人知道

till change reached a sufficient speed.

直到变化达到足够的速度。

Large organizations will start to do worse now, though, because for the first time in history they're no longer getting the best people.

不过，大型组织现在将开始表现更糟，因为它们历史上第一次不再拥有最优秀的人才。

An ambitious kid graduating from college now doesn't want to work for a big company.

一个雄心勃勃的大学毕业孩子现在不想在大公司工作。

They want to work for the hot startup that's rapidly growing into one.

他们希望为一家正在迅速发展壮大的热门初创公司工作。

If they're really ambitious, they want to start it.

如果他们真的雄心勃勃，他们就会想要开始。

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