Could VC be a Casualty of the Recession?

December 2008 (I originally wrote this at the request of a company producing a report about entrepreneurship.

2008 年 12 月（我最初是应一家制作创业报告的公司的要求写下这篇文章的。

Unfortunately after reading it they decided it was too controversial to include.) VC funding will probably dry up somewhat during the present recession, like it usually does in bad times.

不幸的是，在读完之后，他们认为它的争议性太大，无法纳入其中。）在当前的经济衰退期间，风险投资资金可能会有所枯竭，就像在经济不景气时通常会发生的那样。

But this time the result may be different.

但这一次的结果可能会有所不同。

This time the number of new startups may not decrease.

这次新创业公司的数量可能不会减少。

And that could be dangerous for VCs.

这对风险投资来说可能是危险的。

When VC funding dried up after the Internet Bubble, startups dried up too.

当互联网泡沫之后风险投资资金枯竭时，初创企业也随之枯竭。

There were not a lot of new startups being founded in 2003.

2003年并没有很多新的初创公司成立。

But startups aren't tied to VC the way they were 10 years ago.

但初创公司不再像 10 年前那样与风险投资紧密相连。

It's now possible for VCs and startups to diverge.

现在风险投资公司和初创公司可能会出现分歧。

And if they do, they may not reconverge once the economy gets better.

即使他们这样做了，一旦经济好转，他们也可能不会重新融合。

The reason startups no longer depend so much on VCs is one that everyone in the startup business knows by now: it has gotten much

初创企业不再如此依赖风险投资的原因是初创企业界的每个人现在都知道：它已经获得了很多

cheaper to start a startup.

创办公司更便宜。

There are four main reasons: Moore's law has made hardware cheap; open source has made software free; the web has made marketing and distribution free; and more powerful programming languages mean development teams can be smaller.

主要原因有四个：摩尔定律让硬件变得便宜；开源使软件变得免费；网络使营销和分发变得免费；更强大的编程语言意味着开发团队可以更小。

These changes have pushed the cost of starting a startup down into the noise.

这些变化降低了初创企业的成本。

In a lot of startups—probaby most startups funded by Y Combinator—the biggest expense is simply the founders'

在许多初创公司中（可能大多数由 Y Combinator 资助的初创公司），最大的开支就是创始人的开支

living expenses.

生活费。

We've had startups that were profitable on revenues of $3000 a month.

我们有一些初创公司每月的收入达到 3000 美元。

$3000 is insignificant as revenues go.

3000美元对于收入来说微不足道。

Why should anyone care about a startup making $3000 a month?

为什么有人应该关心一家月收入 3000 美元的初创公司？

Because, although insignificant as revenue , this amount of money can change a startup's funding situation completely.

因为，虽然与收入相比微不足道，但这笔钱可以彻底改变一家初创公司的融资状况。

Someone running a startup is always calculating in the back of their mind how much "runway" they have—how long they have till the

经营一家初创公司的人总是在心里计算着他们有多少“跑道”——他们还有多长时间才能成功。

money in the bank runs out and they either have to be profitable, raise more money, or go out of business.

银行里的钱用完了，他们要么必须盈利，筹集更多资金，要么倒闭。

Once you cross the threshold of profitability, however low, your runway becomes infinite.

一旦你跨过盈利门槛，无论盈利能力有多低，你的跑道就会变得无限。

It's a qualitative change, like the stars turning into lines and disappearing when the Enterprise accelerates to warp speed.

这是一种质的变化，就像企业号加速到扭曲速度时星星变成线条并消失一样。

Once you're profitable you don't need investors' money.

一旦你盈利了，你就不需要投资者的钱了。

And because Internet startups have become so cheap to run, the threshold of

而且由于互联网初创公司的运营成本变得如此之低，

profitability can be trivially low.

盈利能力可能非常低。

Which means many Internet startups don't need VC-scale investments anymore.

这意味着许多互联网初创公司不再需要风险投资规模的投资。

For many startups, VC funding has, in the language of VCs, gone from a must-have to a nice-to-have.

对于许多初创企业来说，用风险投资的话说，风险投资已经从必备变成了可有可无。

This change happened while no one was looking, and its effects have been largely masked so far.

这种变化是在没有人注意的情况下发生的，而且迄今为止其影响在很大程度上被掩盖了。

It was during the trough after the Internet Bubble that it became trivially cheap to start a startup,

正是在互联网泡沫之后的低谷时期，创办一家初创公司变得非常便宜，

but few realized it because startups were so out of fashion.

但很少有人意识到这一点，因为初创公司已经过时了。

When startups came back into fashion, around 2005, investors were starting to write checks again.

2005 年左右，当初创公司重新流行起来时，投资者又开始开支票。

And while founders may not have needed VC money the way they used to, they were willing to take it if offered—partly because there was a tradition of startups taking VC money, and partly because startups, like dogs, tend to eat when given the opportunity.

尽管创始人可能不像以前那样需要风险投资，但如果有机会的话，他们愿意接受——部分原因是初创公司有接受风险投资的传统，部分原因是初创公司就像狗一样，一旦有机会就会吃东西。

As long as VCs were writing checks,

只要风险投资家写支票，

founders were never forced to explore the limits of how little they needed them.

创始人从来没有被迫探索他们需要的东西有多么有限。

There were a few startups who hit these limits accidentally because of their unusual circumstances—most famously 37signals, which hit the limit because they crossed into startup land from the other direction: they started as a consulting firm, so they had revenue before they had a product.

有一些初创公司由于其特殊的情况而意外地达到了这些极限——最著名的是 37signals，它之所以达到极限是因为他们从另一个方向跨入了初创公司领域：他们以咨询公司起家，所以他们在推出产品之前就已经有了收入。

VCs and founders are like two components that used to be bolted

风险投资家和创始人就像两个曾经被螺栓固定的组成部分

together.

在一起。

Around 2000 the bolt was removed.

2000年左右，螺栓被拆除。

Because the components have so far been subjected to the same forces, they still seem to be joined together, but really one is just resting on the other.

因为到目前为止，这些部件都受到相同的力，所以它们看起来仍然连接在一起，但实际上一个部件只是搁置在另一个部件上。

A sharp impact would make them fly apart.

剧烈的撞击会让它们飞散。

And the present recession could be that impact.

当前的经济衰退可能就是这种影响。

Because of Y Combinator's position at the extreme end of the spectrum, we'd be the first to see signs of a separation between founders and

由于 Y Combinator 处于极端位置，我们将是第一个看到创始人和创始人之间分离迹象的人。

investors, and we are in fact seeing it.

投资者，我们实际上也看到了这一点。

For example, though the stock market crash does seem to have made investors more cautious, it doesn't seem to have had any effect on the number of people who want to start startups.

例如，尽管股市崩盘似乎确实让投资者更加谨慎，但它似乎并没有对想要创业的人数产生任何影响。

We take applications for funding every 6 months.

我们每 6 个月接受一次资助申请。

Applications for the current funding cycle closed on October 17, well after the markets tanked, and even so we got a record number, up 40% from the same cycle a year before.

当前融资周期的申请于 10 月 17 日结束，远在市场暴跌之后，尽管如此，我们还是收到了创纪录的数字，比一年前同一周期增长了 40%。

Maybe things will be different a year from now, if the economy continues to get worse, but so far there is zero slackening of interest among potential founders.

如果经济继续恶化，也许一年后情况会有所不同，但到目前为止，潜在创始人的兴趣减弱为零。

That's different from the way things felt in 2001.

这与 2001 年的感觉不同。

Then there was a widespread feeling among potential founders that startups were over, and that one should just go to grad school.

然后，潜在的创始人普遍认为初创公司已经结束了，人们应该去读研究生。

That isn't happening this time, and part of the reason is that even in a bad economy it's not that hard to

这次没有发生这种情况，部分原因是即使在经济不景气的情况下，也不难做到这一点。

build something that makes $3000 a month.

建造一些每月能赚 3000 美元的东西。

If investors stop writing checks, who cares?

如果投资者停止写支票，谁在乎呢？

We also see signs of a divergence between founders and investors in the attitudes of existing startups we've funded.

我们还看到创始人和投资者对我们资助的现有初创公司的态度存在分歧的迹象。

I was talking to one recently that had a round fall through at the last minute over the sort of trifle that breaks deals when investors feel they have the upper hand—over an uncertainty about whether the

我最近与一位投资者交谈，他的一轮融资在最后一刻因一些小事而失败，而当投资者认为自己占据上风时，他们会因为不确定是否可以达成交易而导致交易失败。

founders had correctly filed their 83(b) forms, if you can believe that.

如果您相信的话，创始人已正确提交了 83(b) 表格。

And yet this startup is obviously going to succeed: their traffic and revenue graphs look like a jet taking off.

然而，这家初创公司显然会成功：他们的流量和收入图表看起来就像一架喷气式飞机起飞。

So I asked them if they wanted me to introduce them to more investors.

所以我问他们是否希望我把他们介绍给更多的投资者。

To my surprise, they said no—that they'd just spent four months dealing with investors, and they were actually a lot happier now that they didn't have to.

令我惊讶的是，他们拒绝了——他们刚刚花了四个月时间与投资者打交道，而且现在他们实际上更高兴，因为他们不必这样做。

There was a friend they wanted to hire

他们想雇用一位朋友

with the investor money, and now they'd have to postpone that.

用投资者的钱，现在他们不得不推迟。

But otherwise they felt they had enough in the bank to make it to profitability.

但除此之外，他们认为自己的银行存款足以实现盈利。

To make sure, they were moving to a cheaper apartment.

为了确保安全，他们搬到了一套更便宜的公寓。

And in this economy I bet they got a good deal on it.

在目前的经济形势下，我敢打赌他们能赚到很多钱。

I've detected this "investors aren't worth the trouble" vibe from several YC founders I've talked to recently.

我最近从几位 YC 创始人的交谈中发现了这种“投资者不值得麻烦”的氛围。

At least one startup from the most recent (summer) cycle may not even raise angel money,

至少有一家来自最近（夏季）周期的初创公司甚至可能无法筹集天使资金，

let alone VC.

更不用说VC了。

Ticketstumbler made it to profitability on Y Combinator's $15,000 investment and they hope not to need more.

Ticketstumbler 靠 Y Combinator 的 15,000 美元投资实现了盈利，他们希望不再需要更多资金。

This surprised even us.

这甚至让我们感到惊讶。

Although YC is based on the idea of it being cheap to start a startup, we never anticipated that founders would grow successful startups on nothing more than YC funding.

尽管 YC 的理念是创办一家初创公司成本低廉，但我们从未预料到创始人仅靠 YC 的资金就能发展出成功的初创公司。

If founders decide VCs aren't worth the trouble, that could be bad for VCs.

如果创始人认为风险投资不值得这么麻烦，那对风险投资来说可能是件坏事。

When the economy bounces back in a few years and they're

当经济几年后反弹时

ready to write checks again, they may find that founders have moved on.

准备再次开支票时，他们可能会发现创始人已经离开了。

There is a founder community just as there's a VC community.

就像有风险投资社区一样，也有创始人社区。

They all know one another, and techniques spread rapidly between them.

他们都互相认识，技术在他们之间迅速传播。

If one tries a new programming language or a new hosting provider and gets good results, 6 months later half of them are using it.

如果一个人尝试一种新的编程语言或新的托管提供商并获得良好的结果，那么 6 个月后，一半的人会使用它。

And the same is true for funding.

资金也是如此。

The current generation of founders

当前一代创始人

want to raise money from VCs, and Sequoia specifically, because Larry and Sergey took money from VCs, and Sequoia specifically.

想要从风险投资公司（特别是红杉资本）那里筹集资金，因为拉里（Larry）和谢尔盖（Sergey）从风险投资公司（特别是红杉资本）那里拿了钱。

Imagine what it would do to the VC business if the next hot company didn't take VC at all.

想象一下，如果下一家热门公司根本不接受风险投资，会对风险投资业务产生什么影响。

VCs think they're playing a zero sum game.

风险投资家认为他们正在玩零和游戏。

In fact, it's not even that.

事实上，甚至还不是这样。

If you lose a deal to Benchmark, you lose that deal, but VC as an industry still wins.

如果你输给了 Benchmark，你就失去了这笔交易，但风险投资作为一个行业仍然是赢家。

If you lose a deal to None, all VCs

如果你输给了“无”，所有风险投资公司

lose.

输了。

This recession may be different from the one after the Internet Bubble.

这次衰退可能与互联网泡沫之后的衰退有所不同。

This time founders may keep starting startups.

这次创始人可能会继续创办初创公司。

And if they do, VCs will have to keep writing checks, or they could become irrelevant.

如果他们这样做了，风险投资家将不得不继续写支票，否则他们可能会变得无关紧要。

Thanks to Sam Altman, Trevor Blackwell, David Hornik, Jessica Livingston, Robert Morris, and Fred Wilson for reading drafts of this.

感谢 Sam Altman、Trevor Blackwell、David Hornik、Jessica Livingston、Robert Morris 和 Fred Wilson 阅读本文的草稿。