The Anatomy of Determination

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</td > September 2009 Like all investors, we spend a lot of time trying to learn how to predict which startups will succeed.

</td> 2009 年 9 月 像所有投资者一样，我们花了很多时间试图学习如何预测哪些初创公司会成功。

We probably spend more time thinking about it than most, because we invest the earliest.

我们可能比大多数人花更多的时间思考这个问题，因为我们最早投资。

Prediction is usually all we have to rely on.

通常我们只能依赖预测。

We learned quickly that the most important predictor of success is

我们很快了解到成功最重要的预测因素是

determination.

决心。

At first we thought it might be intelligence.

起初我们认为这可能是智力。

Everyone likes to believe that's what makes startups succeed.

每个人都愿意相信这就是初创公司成功的原因。

It makes a better story that a company won because its founders were so smart.

一家公司因其创始人非常聪明而获胜，这是一个更好的故事。

The PR people and reporters who spread such stories probably believe them themselves.

传播此类故事的公关人员和记者可能自己也相信。

But while it certainly helps to be smart, it's not the deciding factor.

虽然聪明确实有帮助，但这并不是决定因素。

There are plenty of people as smart as Bill Gates who achieve nothing.

有很多像比尔盖茨一样聪明的人却一事无成。

In most domains, talent is overrated compared to determination—partly because it makes a better story, partly because it gives onlookers an excuse for being lazy, and partly because after a while determination starts to look like talent.

在大多数领域，与决心相比，天赋被高估了——部分是因为它能创造出更好的故事，部分是因为它给旁观者提供了懒惰的借口，部分是因为过了一段时间决心开始看起来像天赋。

I can't think of any field in which determination is overrated, but the relative importance of determination and talent probably do vary somewhat.

我想不出有哪个领域的决心被高估了，但决心和才能的相对重要性可能确实有所不同。

Talent probably matters more in types of work that

在以下类型的工作中，天赋可能更重要

are purer, in the sense that one is solving mostly a single type of problem instead of many different types.

更纯粹，因为人们主要解决单一类型的问题，而不是许多不同类型的问题。

I suspect determination would not take you as far in math as it would in, say, organized crime.

我怀疑决心不会让你在数学方面走得那么远，比如在有组织犯罪方面。

I don't mean to suggest by this comparison that types of work that depend more on talent are always more admirable.

我并不是想通过这种比较来表明，更依赖才能的工作类型总是更令人钦佩。

Most people would agree it's more admirable to be good at math than memorizing long

大多数人都会同意，擅长数学比背诵长篇大论更令人钦佩。

strings of digits, even though the latter depends more on natural ability.

数字串，尽管后者更多地依赖于自然能力。

Perhaps one reason people believe startup founders win by being smarter is that intelligence does matter more in technology startups than it used to in earlier types of companies.

也许人们认为初创公司创始人通过更聪明而获胜的原因之一是，与早期类型的公司相比，智力在科技初创公司中确实更重要。

You probably do need to be a bit smarter to dominate Internet search than you had to be to dominate railroads or hotels or newspapers.

要想主导互联网搜索，你可能确实需要比主导铁路、酒店或报纸更聪明一点。

And that's

那就是

probably an ongoing trend.

可能是一个持续的趋势。

But even in the highest of high tech industries, success still depends more on determination than brains.

但即使在最尖端的高科技行业，成功仍然更多地取决于决心而不是大脑。

If determination is so important, can we isolate its components?

如果决心如此重要，我们可以分离出它的组成部分吗？

Are some more important than others?

有些比其他更重要吗？

Are there some you can cultivate?

有没有可以培养的？

The simplest form of determination is sheer willfulness.

最简单的决心就是纯粹的任性。

When you want something, you must have it, no matter what.

当你想要某样东西时，无论如何你都必须拥有它。

A good deal of willfulness must be inborn, because it's common to

很多任性必定是与生俱来的，因为这是很常见的

see families where one sibling has much more of it than another.

看到一些家庭，其中一个兄弟姐妹比另一个兄弟姐妹拥有更多的东西。

Circumstances can alter it, but at the high end of the scale, nature seems to be more important than nurture.

环境可以改变它，但从最高端的角度来看，先天似乎比后天培养更重要。

Bad circumstances can break the spirit of a strong-willed person, but I don't think there's much you can do to make a weak-willed person stronger-willed.

糟糕的环境会摧毁一个意志坚强的人的精神，但我认为你无法做太多事情来让一个意志薄弱的人变得意志坚强。

Being strong-willed is not enough, however.

然而，仅仅有坚强的意志还不够。

You also have to be hard on yourself.

你还必须对自己严格要求。

Someone who was strong-willed but self-indulgent

一个意志坚强但自我放纵的人

would not be called determined.

就不能称为决心。

Determination implies your willfulness is balanced by discipline.

决心意味着你的任性与纪律相平衡。

That word balance is a significant one.

这个词的平衡很重要。

The more willful you are, the more disciplined you have to be.

你越是任性，你就越要自律。

The stronger your will, the less anyone will be able to argue with you except yourself.

你的意志越坚强，除了你自己之外，别人就越不可能与你争论。

And someone has to argue with you, because everyone has base impulses, and if you have more will than discipline you'll just give into

有人必须与你争论，因为每个人都有基本的冲动，如果你的意志多于纪律，你就会屈服

them and end up on a local maximum like drug addiction.

它们最终会像吸毒一样达到局部最大值。

We can imagine will and discipline as two fingers squeezing a slippery melon seed.

我们可以把意志和纪律想象成两根手指挤一粒滑溜溜的瓜子。

The harder they squeeze, the further the seed flies, but they must both squeeze equally or the seed spins off sideways.

它们挤压得越用力，种子飞得越远，但它们必须均匀挤压，否则种子会向侧面旋转。

If this is true it has interesting implications, because discipline can be cultivated, and in fact does tend to vary quite a lot in the course of an individual's life.

如果这是真的，那就具有有趣的含义，因为纪律是可以培养的，而且事实上，在个人的一生中，纪律确实往往会发生很大的变化。

If determination is effectively

如果决心有效

the product of will and discipline, then you can become more determined by being more disciplined.

意志和纪律的产物，那么你可以通过更加自律而变得更加坚定。

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