What impact will climate change have on malaria?
Climate change could make a number of infectious diseases worse.
气候变化可能会使一些传染病恶化。
I expected malaria would be one of them.
我预计疟疾将是其中之一。
That’s concerning, given the huge global burden that it already carries: it kills almost half a million children every year.
考虑到它已经给全球带来了巨大的负担，这一点令人担忧：它每年导致近 50 万儿童死亡。
But a more complex story emerges from the scientific literature.
但科学文献中出现了一个更复杂的故事。
One where rising temperatures could actually reduce the burden of malaria in some areas, while making it worse in others.
气温升高实际上可以减轻某些地区的疟疾负担，同时使另一些地区的情况变得更糟。
What impact has climate change already had on malaria?
气候变化已经对疟疾产生了哪些影响？
Will it make the global fight against it harder or easier in the future?
未来全球抗疫斗争会变得更加困难还是更加容易？
Before we look at how climate change could change the dynamics and distribution of malaria in the future, we need a quick primer on the global burden of the disease today.
在我们研究气候变化如何改变未来疟疾的动态和分布之前，我们需要快速了解当今该疾病的全球负担。
This is important because climate change could cause a decline in malaria in some regions, while increasing the prevalence in others.
这很重要，因为气候变化可能会导致某些地区的疟疾减少，而另一些地区的患病率则会增加。
The impact on the overall global burden of malaria will mostly depend on what happens in the worst-affected regions today.
对全球疟疾总体负担的影响将主要取决于当今受影响最严重地区的情况。
Malaria is an infectious disease present across much of the tropics and subtropics.
疟疾是一种传染病，存在于大部分热带和亚热带地区。
In the map below, you can see the band of new infections across South America, South and Southeast Asia, and Africa.
在下面的地图中，您可以看到南美洲、南亚、东南亚以及非洲的新感染病例带。
The difference between sub-Saharan Africa and other parts of the tropics, though, is huge.
然而，撒哈拉以南非洲地区和热带其他地区之间的差异是巨大的。
Infection rates in sub-Saharan Africa are around 100 times higher than in South America and 50 times higher than in South Asia.
撒哈拉以南非洲地区的感染率大约是南美洲的 100 倍，是南亚的 50 倍。
The fact that severe malaria is mostly an African story today is even clearer when we look at where people die from it.
当我们看看人们死于疟疾的地方时，这一事实就更清楚了：严重的疟疾今天主要发生在非洲。
More than 95% of the 600,000 people who die from malaria every year live in sub-Saharan Africa.
每年死于疟疾的 60 万人中，95% 以上生活在撒哈拉以南非洲地区。
You can see this regional breakdown below.
您可以在下面看到此区域细分。
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But this chart also makes clear that within sub-Saharan Africa, there are substantial differences in the burden.
但这张图表也清楚地表明，在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，负担存在很大差异。
Around half of global deaths occur in West Africa — countries like Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, and Liberia.
全球约一半的死亡病例发生在西非——尼日利亚、塞拉利昂、喀麦隆、科特迪瓦和利比里亚等国家。
The rest are split between the central and eastern parts of the continent.
其余的分布在非洲大陆的中部和东部地区。
Southern Africa has extremely low rates of malaria.
南部非洲的疟疾发病率极低。
This dominance in West Africa is not just about population (we might expect more deaths in denser areas).
西非的这种主导地位不仅仅与人口有关（我们可能预计人口稠密地区的死亡人数会更多）。
As you can see in this map of death rates , those living in West Africa are at a much higher risk of dying from malaria.
正如您在这张死亡率地图中所看到的，居住在西非的人们死于疟疾的风险要高得多。
These are the important background facts to make sense of this article’s focus.
这些是理解本文重点的重要背景事实。
Most deaths from malaria occur in sub-Saharan Africa.
大多数疟疾死亡发生在撒哈拉以南非洲地区。
Within the continent, West Africa is hit the worst.
在非洲大陆，西非受灾最严重。
And children are most at risk: tragically, around 70% of malaria deaths are among children.
儿童面临的风险最大：可悲的是，大约 70% 的疟疾死亡病例是儿童。
That’s almost half a million children dying of the disease every year.
每年有近 50 万儿童死于这种疾病。
To understand the link between malaria and climate change, we need to know the basics of the disease’s “perfect conditions”.
要了解疟疾与气候变化之间的联系，我们需要了解该疾病“完美条件”的基础知识。
Several mosquito species in Africa carry and spread malaria.
非洲的几种蚊子携带并传播疟疾。
A dominant one is Anopheles gambiae .
其中占主导地位的是冈比亚按蚊。
It carries and spreads the parasite Plasmodium falciparum , which is what infects humans.
它携带并传播恶性疟原虫，这种寄生虫会感染人类。
Over many decades, scientists have studied the ideal conditions for these mosquitoes to thrive.
几十年来，科学家们研究了这些蚊子繁衍生息的理想条件。
The spread of malaria peaks in these species at around 25°C.
在这些物种中，疟疾的传播在 25°C 左右达到高峰。
2 Transmission drops close to zero below 16°C and above 34°C.
2 在 16°C 以下和 34°C 以上时，透射率几乎为零。
That means the suitability of malaria forms a bell-shaped curve like the one below.
这意味着疟疾的适宜性形成如下所示的钟形曲线。
It spreads best at 25°C; this suitability drops on either side of it, and eventually becomes negligible.
25°C 时传播效果最佳；这种适用性在其两侧都会下降，并最终变得可以忽略不计。
Temperature is not the only thing that matters.
温度并不是唯一重要的因素。
How established malaria already is in a given country or region does, too.
疟疾在某个国家或地区的流行程度也同样如此。
As do rainfall patterns: female mosquitoes lay their eggs in standing water, and larvae need water to develop.
降雨模式也是如此：雌性蚊子在积水中产卵，幼虫需要水才能发育。
So, rainfall creates favorable conditions for malaria to spread.
因此，降雨为疟疾的传播创造了有利条件。
There is a limit, though: heavy, persistent rain often washes larvae away, preventing them from developing.
但也有一个限度：持续的大雨经常会冲走幼虫，阻止它们发育。
An area with moderate rainfall is therefore a good breeding ground for malaria to spread.
因此，降雨量适中的地区是疟疾传播的良好滋生地。
Humidity can also have an effect.
湿度也会产生影响。
Adult Anopheles dry out in low-humidity air, so they often live longer in wetter, more humid seasons (and when they live longer, they do a better job of spreading the parasite).
成年按蚊在低湿度的空气中会变得干燥，因此它们在潮湿的季节通常寿命更长（当它们寿命更长时，它们传播寄生虫的能力会更好）。
The world has already warmed by around 1.4°C since pre-industrial times.
自前工业化时代以来，世界已经变暖了约 1.4°C。
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What impact has this already had on the prevalence of malaria?
这对疟疾的流行已经产生了什么影响？
A recent paper by Colin Carlson and colleagues, published in Nature , estimated the impact of historical climate change on the burden of malaria so far, and projected how this might affect it in the future under different warming scenarios.
科林·卡尔森及其同事最近在《自然》杂志上发表的一篇论文估计了迄今为止历史气候变化对疟疾负担的影响，并预测了在不同的变暖情景下这可能如何影响未来。
4 The paper focused on the burden on children in Africa — as we established earlier, this is the most affected demographic, both in terms of cases and deaths.
4 该文件重点关注非洲儿童的负担——正如我们之前所确定的，无论从病例数还是死亡人数来看，非洲儿童都是受影响最严重的人群。
They estimate that over the last century — from 1901 to 2014 — climate change has led to a small increase in the prevalence of childhood malaria across sub-Saharan Africa.
他们估计，在上个世纪（从 1901 年到 2014 年），气候变化导致撒哈拉以南非洲地区儿童疟疾的患病率略有上升。
By “increase”, they mean that rates were slightly higher than they would have been compared to a hypothetical scenario without climate change .
他们所说的“增加”是指与没有气候变化的假设情景相比，比率略高。
The prevalence of malaria has actually declined in recent decades, but for reasons unrelated to climate.
近几十年来，疟疾的患病率实际上有所下降，但原因与气候无关。
Across the region, this increase was estimated at roughly 1 case per 1,000 children aged 2 to 10.
在整个地区，这一增幅估计约为每 1,000 名 2 至 10 岁儿童中就有 1 例。
To put this into context, around 24% of children (or 240 in every 1,000) in this region were estimated to carry the malaria parasite at the end of the study period.
考虑到这一点，在研究期结束时，估计该地区约 24% 的儿童（即每 1,000 名儿童中有 240 名）携带疟疾寄生虫。
So, the overall impact has been relatively small and is quite uncertain.
因此，总体影响相对较小，且具有很大的不确定性。
59% of the study’s simulations showed an increase in malaria prevalence, with uncertainty ranging from a reduction of 4 cases per 1,000 to an increase of 6 cases per 1,000.
该研究的 59% 模拟显示疟疾患病率有所增加，不确定性范围从每 1,000 人中 4 例减少到每 1,000 人中 6 例增加。
The bigger impact has been in changing the prevalence of malaria across different parts of the continent.
更大的影响是改变了非洲大陆不同地区的疟疾流行率。
Hotter temperatures might not have led to a large increase, on average, but they have affected its distribution.
平均而言，较热的气温可能不会导致其大幅增加，但影响了其分布。
Climate change has probably led to a decline in malaria in West Africa, but an increase in the southern and eastern parts of the continent.
气候变化可能导致西非疟疾减少，但该大陆南部和东部地区疟疾增加。
The following map summarizes this change: you see blue in the West but red, marking an increase, in the East and South.
下图总结了这一变化：您在西部看到蓝色，但在东部和南部看到红色，标志着增加。
Remember that West Africa is where the burden of malaria has been, and still is, the highest.
请记住，西非是疟疾负担最重的地区，而且仍然是最严重的地区。
A decline there due to climate change has been almost entirely offset by an increase elsewhere on the continent, which is why the effect, on aggregate, is very small.
由于气候变化导致的下降几乎完全被非洲大陆其他地方的增长所抵消，这就是为什么总体影响非常小。
The chart below shows malaria prevalence in two scenarios: the realistic one the world has lived through, and an alternate reality without human-driven climate change.
下图显示了两种情况下的疟疾流行情况：世界已经经历过的现实情况，以及没有人类驱动的气候变化的另一种现实。
Malaria has declined in West Africa due to climate change, but has increased in the other three subregions.
由于气候变化，西非的疟疾有所减少，但其他三个次区域的疟疾有所增加。
To understand why climate change has made things better in West Africa, but worse elsewhere, let’s return to our bell-shaped curve of where malaria thrives.
为了理解为什么气候变化使西非的情况变得更好，但其他地方却变得更糟，让我们回到疟疾肆虐地区的钟形曲线。
The study by Carlson and colleagues found results very similar to previous studies on the optimal conditions for malaria-carrying mosquitoes: transmission peaks at around 25°C.
卡尔森及其同事的研究发现，结果与之前关于携带疟疾的蚊子的最佳条件的研究非常相似：传播峰值在 25°C 左右。
In 1901, the average temperature in West Africa was around 26°C — very close to, but just past, the ideal temperature.
1901 年，西非的平均气温约为 26°C，非常接近但刚刚超过理想温度。
5 Climate change has increased temperatures, pushing them away from the optimum and down the slope.
5 气候变化导致气温升高，使气温偏离最佳温度并下降。
What has happened elsewhere?
其他地方发生了什么？
East and Central Africa started below the optimum, at around 22°C, and Southern Africa far below, at around 17°C.
东非和中非一开始就低于最佳气温，约为 22°C，而南部非洲则远低于最佳气温，约为 17°C。
Higher temperatures in all of these regions have pushed them closer to the optimum.
所有这些区域的较高温度使它们更接近最佳状态。
East and Central Africa now sit at around 24°C, and Southern Africa at around 18°C.
目前，东非和中非的气温约为 24°C，南部非洲的气温约为 18°C。
It’s this temperature effect that has driven these diverging patterns across sub-Saharan Africa.
正是这种温度效应导致了撒哈拉以南非洲地区出现了这些不同的模式。
The authors of the study did not find a discernible signal of climate change in historical drought and flood trends.
该研究的作者没有在历史干旱和洪水趋势中发现明显的气候变化信号。
What’s crucial is that, while climate change has, on net, probably increased the burden of malaria across sub-Saharan Africa, its impact has been small compared with the many interventions and investments made to control and alleviate malaria.
至关重要的是，虽然气候变化可能增加了整个撒哈拉以南非洲地区的疟疾负担，但与控制和减轻疟疾的众多干预措施和投资相比，其影响很小。
Malaria cases and deaths have not increased, but fallen substantially over the longer term.
疟疾病例和死亡人数没有增加，但从长远来看却大幅下降。
Infection rates in young children in sub-Saharan Africa fell by almost 40%.
撒哈拉以南非洲地区幼儿的感染率下降了近 40%。
Death rates in the region have almost halved .
该地区的死亡率几乎减半。
As the authors note, the imprint of climate change is mostly masked by “the more than 200-fold greater overall reduction observed across sub-Saharan Africa over the same period”.
正如作者指出的那样，气候变化的影响主要被“同期在撒哈拉以南非洲地区观察到的总体减少幅度超过 200 倍”所掩盖。
The climate dynamics that made malaria less prevalent in West Africa but more prevalent elsewhere on the continent will persist as temperatures continue to rise.
随着气温继续上升，使疟疾在西非不太流行但在非洲大陆其他地方更加流行的气候动态将持续存在。
West Africa will, increasingly, become too hot for peak malaria.
西非将变得越来越热，无法达到疟疾高峰期。
Central, East, and Southern Africa will be pushed towards it.
中部非洲、东部非洲和南部非洲将被推向这一目标。
Of course, the level of these changes will depend on how much warming happens over the rest of the century (and that depends on our ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ).
当然，这些变化的程度将取决于本世纪剩余时间内变暖的程度（这取决于我们减少温室气体排放的能力）。
Colin Carlson and colleagues projected changes in malaria under three future warming scenarios: a very optimistic one that experiences the least warming ( RCP2.6 ), a medium scenario ( RCP4.5 ), and a very high scenario ( RCP8.5 ), which is now considered implausible this century.
Colin Carlson 及其同事预测了未来三种变暖情景下疟疾的变化：一种非常乐观的情景（RCP2.6），一种中等情景（RCP4.5），以及一种非常高的情景（RCP8.5），这种情景现在被认为在本世纪是难以置信的。
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In the chart, you can see the projected changes in prevalence across the different regions under these three scenarios.
在图表中，您可以看到这三种情况下不同地区流行率的预计变化。
Again, this is the change relative to a counterfactual scenario without climate change.
同样，这是相对于没有气候变化的反事实情景的变化。
In West Africa, the prevalence of malaria declines across all scenarios, and actually declines the most in the hottest one.
在西非，疟疾患病率在所有情况下都会下降，而且实际上在最热的情况下下降幅度最大。
In Southern Africa, which is currently farthest from the 25°C optimum, the opposite is true.
在目前距离最佳气温 25°C 最远的南部非洲，情况恰恰相反。
Malaria is projected to increase across all scenarios (though in the hottest scenario, it starts to fall again in the second half of the century).
预计疟疾在所有情况下都会增加（尽管在最热的情况下，疟疾在本世纪下半叶开始再次下降）。
Warmer temperatures here not only increase the prevalence of malaria in regions where it is already present; they also make malaria viable in higher-altitude areas, which are currently too cold.
这里气温升高不仅会增加已经存在疟疾的地区的疟疾患病率，而且还会增加疟疾的患病率。它们还使疟疾在目前气候寒冷的高海拔地区得以传播。
This is a concern because these are places without a historical experience of dealing with the disease — they would need to build capacity to manage and treat it.
这是一个令人担忧的问题，因为这些地方没有处理这种疾病的历史经验——他们需要建立管理和治疗这种疾病的能力。
In Central Africa, malaria falls in all warming scenarios, but not as strongly as in West Africa.
在中部非洲，疟疾在所有变暖情景下都会下降，但不如西非那么严重。
In the east, the prevalence of malaria increases slightly under the low- and moderate-warming scenarios, as hotter temperatures push it closer to the optimum.
在东部，在低度和中度变暖的情况下，疟疾的患病率略有上升，因为气温升高使其更接近最佳状态。
The following map shows how this change in prevalence looks across the subregions in the intermediate-warming scenario.
下图显示了在中间变暖情景下各次区域流行率的变化情况。
If we add up all these changes, the authors estimate that by 2100, climate change would reduce average prevalence by 1 per 1,000 children in the low-warming scenario and by up to 20 per 1,000 children in the very high scenario.
如果我们将所有这些变化加起来，作者估计，到 2100 年，在低变暖情景下，气候变化将使每 1,000 名儿童中的平均患病率降低 1 人，在高变暖情景下，每 1,000 名儿童中将减少多达 20 人。
The net effect is a decline in malaria because the region that experiences the worst impacts of malaria today — West Africa — could see a substantial reduction in a warmer world.
其净效应是疟疾数量减少，因为当今受疟疾影响最严重的地区——西非——在全球变暖的情况下，疟疾数量可能会大幅减少。
And increases in other regions would not be enough to offset this reduction.
其他地区的增长不足以抵消这一减少。
So far, we’ve mostly focused on the impacts of higher temperatures on the spread of malaria.
到目前为止，我们主要关注气温升高对疟疾传播的影响。
But climate change could affect malaria in another way: through extreme weather events.
但气候变化可能以另一种方式影响疟疾：通过极端天气事件。
How can these events drive an increase in malaria cases and deaths?
这些事件如何导致疟疾病例和死亡人数增加？
Flooding can have an impact in several ways.
洪水可以通过多种方式产生影响。
After a flood has receded, huge areas of land — now covered in standing water — can become ideal breeding grounds for mosquito larvae.
洪水退去后，大片土地（现在被积水覆盖）可能成为蚊子幼虫的理想繁殖地。
This is not immediate — larvae don’t do well when it’s too wet — but in the aftermath, as some of the water clears, conditions become ideal for rapid breeding and spread.
这并不是立竿见影的——幼虫在太湿的时候表现不佳——但之后，随着一些水变清，条件就成为快速繁殖和传播的理想条件。
Flooding can also disrupt healthcare facilities, infrastructure, and supply chains that might deliver insecticide-treated nets and antimalarials; all of these factors make it harder for the local community to respond.
洪水还会破坏医疗设施、基础设施和供应链，而这些设施、基础设施和供应链可能会提供经过杀虫剂处理的蚊帐和抗疟疾药物；所有这些因素都使当地社区更难做出反应。
This is what happened in Pakistan when huge floods hit the country in 2022.
这就是2022年巴基斯坦发生特大洪水时所发生的情况。
This caused a surge in malaria cases , which reached 4.3 million a year later — more than eight times the pre-flood level.
这导致疟疾病例激增，一年后达到 430 万例，是洪水前水平的八倍多。
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The Carlson study does capture some of these changes.
卡尔森的研究确实捕捉到了其中一些变化。
The authors find that extremely wet periods tend to increase malaria prevalence several months later.
作者发现，极端潮湿的时期往往会在几个月后增加疟疾的患病率。
But these relationships are harder to establish than they are for temperature.
但这些关系比温度关系更难建立。
Africa does not have a long or high-quality record of precipitation measurements, so the historical data they rely on is noisy and often sparse.
非洲没有长期或高质量的降水测量记录，因此他们依赖的历史数据充满噪音且往往稀疏。
While they might be able to capture some of the physical impacts of extreme rainfall or a flood, what’s harder to capture is the human response: its impact on infrastructure, healthcare facilities, or supply chains.
虽然他们或许能够捕捉极端降雨或洪水的一些物理影响，但更难捕捉的是人类的反应：它对基础设施、医疗设施或供应链的影响。
Another recent study — by Tasmin Symons and colleagues — sought to capture some of the wider impacts of extreme weather.
塔斯明·西蒙斯（Tasmin Symons）及其同事最近进行的另一项研究试图捕捉极端天气的一些更广泛的影响。
8 The authors used 25 years of data on malaria, climate, control interventions, and socioeconomic conditions to estimate how this might change in the future.
8 作者利用 25 年有关疟疾、气候、控制干预措施和社会经济条件的数据来估计未来可能发生的变化。
They found that climate change could increase the burden of malaria across Africa in the coming decades under a medium-warming scenario.
他们发现，在中等变暖的情况下，气候变化可能会在未来几十年增加整个非洲的疟疾负担。
The cumulative (not annual) increase between 2024 and 2050 would be approximately 123 million cases and 532,000 deaths.
2024 年至 2050 年间累计（而非每年）增加病例数约为 1.23 亿，死亡人数为 532,000 人。
If we compare this to current annual cases and deaths, this would be equivalent to almost six months of additional cases over the next 25 years, and almost one additional year of deaths.
如果我们将其与当前的年度病例和死亡人数进行比较，这将相当于未来 25 年近六个月的新增病例，以及近一年的死亡人数。
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The authors concluded that the biggest driver of this increase was not temperature or gradual changes in rainfall; 93% of the additional deaths were attributed to extreme weather events.
作者得出的结论是，这种增加的最大驱动因素不是温度或降雨量的逐渐变化；而是温度或降雨量的逐渐变化。 93%的额外死亡归因于极端天气事件。
First, extreme weather events are particularly hard to predict.
首先，极端天气事件特别难以预测。
What makes it even harder is figuring out the downstream consequences; in the case of Pakistan, it would be hard to know ahead of time which infrastructure would be affected, how overwhelmed health facilities would be, and how long it would take for roads and supply chains to reopen.
让事情变得更加困难的是弄清楚下游的后果；就巴基斯坦而言，很难提前知道哪些基础设施将受到影响、医疗设施将不堪重负，以及道路和供应链重新开放需要多长时间。
Second, the authors assume that malaria control and socioeconomic conditions remain as they are today, so the only thing that changes is the disruption caused by climate change.
其次，作者假设疟疾控制和社会经济条件保持不变，因此唯一改变的是气候变化造成的破坏。
That means it’s not a prediction of future deaths and cases, but a modeled estimate of what could happen if we do nothing.
这意味着它不是对未来死亡和病例的预测，而是对如果我们不采取任何行动可能发生的情况的建模估计。
Still, it’s very plausible that the Carlson paper we looked at misses a real effect of extreme weather, which would underestimate the projected impacts of climate change.
尽管如此，我们看到的卡尔森论文很可能错过了极端天气的真实影响，这会低估气候变化的预计影响。
This point is extremely important in how we respond to this risk: it makes accurate forecasting of extreme events, early warning systems, and flood defenses even more important.
这一点对于我们如何应对这种风险极其重要：它使得极端事件的准确预报、预警系统和防洪变得更加重要。
When we think of malaria prevention, we often focus on bed nets, vaccines, or drugs.
当我们想到预防疟疾时，我们通常会关注蚊帐、疫苗或药物。
If the impact of extreme weather is as large as this other paper suggests, improving overall disaster resilience will also be an important response.
如果极端天气的影响像另一篇论文所暗示的那么大，那么提高整体抗灾能力也将是一个重要的应对措施。
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我们定期发送两份时事通讯，以便您及时了解我们的工作并接收来自“我们的数据世界”的精选亮点。
One of the findings from this article is perhaps surprising.
这篇文章的其中一项发现也许令人惊讶。
For someone who works on climate change, it’s actually an uncomfortable one.
对于致力于气候变化的人来说，这实际上是一件不舒服的事情。
A warmer world might actually reduce the global prevalence of malaria in Africa.
世界变暖实际上可能会减少非洲疟疾的全球流行率。
But it would be wrong to conclude that climate change is a good or useful way to tackle the disease.
但认为气候变化是应对这种疾病的好方法或有用方法的结论是错误的。
The impacts in the coming decades will probably be very uneven.
未来几十年的影响可能会非常不平衡。
Yes, the burden might fall in West Africa, but other — and even new — parts of the continent will be pushed into a worse situation.
是的，西非的负担可能会减轻，但非洲大陆的其他地区，甚至新的地区，将陷入更糟糕的境地。
But there are ways we can reduce the burden of malaria without turning the disease into a zero-sum situation: we do not need to make things worse in one place to make them better elsewhere.
但我们可以采取一些方法来减轻疟疾的负担，而又不会将这种疾病变成零和局面：我们不需要让一个地方的情况变得更糟，从而使其他地方的情况变得更好。
The effects of extreme weather are also highly uncertain, and in some places could override or offset any reductions that parts of Africa might see from higher temperatures.
极端天气的影响也高度不确定，在某些地方可能会抵消或抵消非洲部分地区因气温升高而造成的影响。
The most important lesson is that the size of the difference we can make through effective interventions and investments is far bigger than the effects of climate change.
最重要的教训是，我们通过有效干预和投资所能产生的影响远远大于气候变化的影响。
We see this in the historical data: in recent decades, global deaths have fallen despite a warming world.
我们从历史数据中看到了这一点：近几十年来，尽管世界变暖，但全球死亡人数仍在下降。
This can continue in the future.
这可以在未来继续下去。
Basics like insecticide-treated bed nets and antimalarials have already saved many lives and can save far more if we ensure everyone who needs them has access.
经过杀虫剂处理的蚊帐和抗疟药等基本物品已经挽救了许多人的生命，如果我们确保每个需要它们的人都能获得这些物品，还可以挽救更多的生命。
These interventions are not expensive.
这些干预措施并不昂贵。
The world now has two malaria vaccines , giving us another vital tool to drive this disease to elimination.
现在世界上有两种疟疾疫苗，为我们消除这种疾病提供了另一个重要工具。
Hotter temperatures alone might reduce the burden of malaria in West Africa, but we can and should do far better by implementing control measures and investing where needed.
仅气温升高就可能减轻西非的疟疾负担，但我们可以而且应该通过实施控制措施和在需要的地方进行投资来做得更好。
In a world where we commit to tackling malaria, the impact of climate change — whether positive or negative — could be small.
在我们致力于解决疟疾的世界中，气候变化的影响（无论是积极的还是消极的）可能很小。
Thank you to Tamma Carleton for the provision of the underlying data to produce some of the visualizations in this article.
感谢 Tamma Carleton 提供了基础数据来生成本文中的一些可视化效果。
Thanks also to Edouard Mathieu for editorial feedback and suggestions.
还要感谢爱德华·马蒂厄 (Edouard Mathieu) 的编辑反馈和建议。
The deadly disease transmitted by mosquitoes is one of the leading causes of death in children.
由蚊子传播的致命疾病是儿童死亡的主要原因之一。
How did we eliminate the disease in some world regions and how can we continue progress against malaria?
我们如何在世界一些地区消除这种疾病？我们如何才能在防治疟疾方面继续取得进展？
We do not have to live in a world where 1,320 children die from a preventable disease every day.
我们不必生活在这样一个世界：每天有 1,320 名儿童死于可预防的疾病。
Cold deaths vastly outnumber heat-related ones, but mostly due to “moderate” rather than extremely cold conditions.
寒冷死亡人数远远多于高温死亡人数，但主要是由于“温和”而不是极冷的条件造成的。
Here I’ve grouped countries based on their classification in the Global Burden of Disease studies.
在这里，我根据全球疾病负担研究中的分类对国家进行了分组。
This is the grouping used by Carlson et al.
这是卡尔森等人使用的分组。
(2026) — one of the key papers that I’ll rely on later.
（2026）——我稍后依赖的关键论文之一。
This regional grouping keeps things consistent with the estimates and projections further down.
这种区域分组使情况与进一步的估计和预测保持一致。
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蚊媒疾病的热生物学。
Ecology Letters .
生态快报。
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Ecology .
生态学。
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对 1850 年以来近地表温度变化的更新评估：HadCRUT5 数据集。
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地球物理研究杂志。
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气候变化对非洲儿童疟疾的过去和未来影响。
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These temperature reconstructions are fairly crude, but give a good approximation for how temperatures in these subregions have changed.
这些温度重建相当粗略，但很好地近似了这些次区域的温度变化情况。
Temperatures are population-weighted across all countries in that particular subregion, based on World Bank/Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data.
根据世界银行/气候研究中心 (CRU) 的数据，该特定次区域所有国家的气温均经过人口加权。
Values for 1901 are projected backward using crude warming rates per decade.
使用每十年的粗变暖率向后预测 1901 年的值。
Prior to 1980, I assumed a continent-wide warming rate of around 0.12°C per decade.
1980 年之前，我假设整个大陆的变暖速度约为每十年 0.12°C。
Post-1980, I assume regional warming rates of 0.16°C (West), 0.18°C (East), and 0.17°C (Southern) based on CRU/ERA5 data.
1980 年后，我根据 CRU/ERA5 数据假设区域变暖率为 0.16°C（西部）、0.18°C（东部）和 0.17°C（南部）。
Data for Central Africa wasn’t reported in that study, so I have assumed a similar rate of warming to Southern Africa.
该研究中没有报告中非的数据，因此我假设南部非洲的变暖速度相似。
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气候变化对非洲疟疾的预计影响。
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There are around 280 million cases each year, and around 600,000 deaths.
每年约有 2.8 亿病例，约 60 万人死亡。
Our articles and data visualizations rely on work from many different people and organizations.
我们的文章和数据可视化依赖于许多不同的人和组织的工作。
When citing this article, please also cite the underlying data sources.
引用本文时，请同时注明底层数据来源。
This article can be cited as:
这篇文章可以引用为：
We are a live site and we keep our work maintained.
我们是一个活跃的网站，我们会保持我们的工作。
So our articles are often changed, including the data.
所以我们的文章经常改，包括数据。
You can browse previous versions of this work here.
您可以在此处浏览此作品的先前版本。