How have crime rates in the United States changed over the last 50 years?

Crime is clearly a concern for many people.

犯罪显然是许多人关心的问题。

Nearly 60% of Americans say that reducing crime should be a top priority for the US president and Congress.

近 60% 的美国人表示，减少犯罪应该是美国总统和国会的首要任务。

1 A similar share says that violent crime is very important when making decisions about which political candidates to vote for.

1 类似的观点表示，在决定投票给哪些政治候选人时，暴力犯罪非常重要。

Tracking crime rates is crucial to understanding whether strategies to reduce offenses are effective and for identifying areas of concern.

跟踪犯罪率对于了解减少犯罪的策略是否有效以及确定值得关注的领域至关重要。

Unfortunately, the quality of crime data is often too poor to get a clear perspective of changes over the long term and to compare rates between countries.

不幸的是，犯罪数据的质量往往太差，无法清楚地了解长期变化并比较各国之间的犯罪率。

This is true even for the crime with the most complete coverage, homicide.

即使对于报道最全面的犯罪——凶杀案来说也是如此。

2 Comparisons are even more complicated for less severe crimes.

2 对于不太严重的犯罪，比较甚至更加复杂。

However, a few countries have higher-quality and longer-term estimates.

然而，少数国家有更高质量和更长期的估计。

In this article, we’ll focus on the United States.

在这篇文章中，我们将重点关注美国。

The dataset published by the FBI goes back to 1979, giving us an almost 50-year perspective on how crime has changed.

FBI 发布的数据集可以追溯到 1979 年，为我们提供了近 50 年来犯罪变化的视角。

3 Since not all crimes are recorded, and reporting methodologies can change over time, the FBI produces a dataset that attempts to adjust for this.

3 由于并非所有犯罪都会被记录下来，而且报告方法可能会随着时间的推移而发生变化，因此联邦调查局 (FBI) 制作了一个数据集来尝试对此进行调整。

That means this data might be slightly different from the raw reported crime figures that you see elsewhere.

这意味着这些数据可能与您在其他地方看到的原始报告犯罪数据略有不同。

Several crimes fall within the category of violent crimes.

一些犯罪行为属于暴力犯罪的范畴。

In US statistics, this includes homicide (murder and non-negligent manslaughter), rape, robbery , and aggravated assault .

在美国的统计数据中，这包括杀人（谋杀和非过失杀人）、强奸、抢劫和严重攻击。

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In the chart below, you can see national rates of violent crime since 1979.

在下图中，您可以看到自 1979 年以来的全国暴力犯罪率。

This is measured as the number of offenses per 100,000 people.

这是按照每 10 万人中的犯罪数量来衡量的。

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Violent crime rates increased during the 1980s, reaching a peak in the early 1990s at around 750 offenses per 100,000.

20 世纪 80 年代，暴力犯罪率有所上升，并在 90 年代初达到峰值，每 10 万人中有 750 起犯罪行为。

Since then, rates have more than halved.

从那时起，利率已经减少了一半以上。

Over the past three decades, rates have fluctuated slightly from year to year, but the overall trend has been downward.

过去三十年来，利率每年略有波动，但总体趋势是下降的。

Has this decline been the result of a drop in a specific type of violent crime , or have rates fallen across all categories?

这种下降是特定类型暴力犯罪下降的结果，还是所有类别的犯罪率都下降了？

In this second chart, you can again see the aggregate measure of violent crime rates, alongside the specific rates for homicide, aggravated assault, and violent robbery.

在第二张图表中，您可以再次看到暴力犯罪率的总体衡量标准，以及凶杀、严重袭击和暴力抢劫的具体比率。

The first thing to notice is the differences in scale on the y-axis.

首先要注意的是 y 轴上的比例差异。

Homicides are far less common than assaults or robberies.

凶杀案远不如袭击或抢劫常见。

But overall, there is a fairly consistent pattern across these crimes over these 50 years.

但总体而言，这 50 年来这些犯罪行为具有相当一致的模式。

Rates peaked in the early 1990s (although homicide and robbery rates were already high through the 1980s) and have seen a substantial decline since then.

犯罪率在 20 世纪 90 年代初达到顶峰（尽管凶杀和抢劫犯罪率在 20 世纪 80 年代已经很高），此后大幅下降。

Homicide rates have approximately halved; aggravated assaults have dropped by 40%; and robberies by almost 80%.

凶杀率大约减半；严重攻击事件下降了 40%；抢劫案几乎增加了 80%。

Again, there is some variability over this period.

同样，这一时期存在一些变化。

Homicide and assault rates increased in 2020 and 2021, but have since fallen again.

2020 年和 2021 年，凶杀案和袭击案发生率有所上升，但此后再次下降。

In 2013, the FBI changed its definition of rape in its Uniform Crime Reporting Program.

2013年，联邦调查局在其统一犯罪报告计划中改变了强奸的定义。

This was the first time it had done so in its 80-year history for a Part 1 offense.

这是其 80 年历史上第一次在第 1 部分进攻中这样做。

That means the data is not comparable over the entire 50-year period.

这意味着整个 50 年期间的数据不具有可比性。

The legacy definition of rape was narrower in scope.

传统的强奸定义范围较窄。

It was defined as the “carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will”.

它被定义为“强行违背女性意愿的性交”。

In other words, the forceful penetration of a woman against her consent.

换句话说，就是在未经同意的情况下强行插入女性。

It did not include male victims, nor did it include other sexual assault offenses.

它不包括男性受害者，也不包括其他性侵犯犯罪。

The revised definition is broader in two ways.

修订后的定义在两个方面更加广泛。

First, it includes male and non-binary victims.

首先，它包括男性和非二元性别受害者。

Second, it includes other sexual assault crimes, including oral and anal sex against someone’s consent, and sexual assault with an object.

其次，它包括其他性侵犯犯罪，包括未经某人同意的口交和肛交，以及使用物体的性侵犯。

We have plotted both series — using the older, legacy definition, and the revised definition — in the chart below.

我们在下图中绘制了这两个系列——使用旧的遗留定义和修订后的定义。

You can see that there is data available for both the legacy and revised definitions for several years.

您可以看到多年来遗留的定义和修订的定义都有可用的数据。

During those years, rape rates are, as we’d expect, higher in the revised definition, since it includes a broader set of victims and crimes.

在这些年里，正如我们预期的那样，修订后的定义中的强奸率更高，因为它包括了更广泛的受害者和犯罪行为。

The FBI published a breakdown of how the number of these crimes varied in 2013, using both the legacy and revised definitions.

FBI 使用旧定义和修订后的定义，公布了 2013 年此类犯罪数量变化的细目。

The number of rapes — defined as forcible penetration — with female victims was the same: 26,994 in each.

女性受害者被强奸（定义为强行插入）的数量相同：每起 26,994 起。

But the count under the revised definition additionally included 611 cases of rape of male victims, 7,602 cases classified as “sodomy” (oral or anal sexual intercourse without consent), and 3,043 counts of “sexual assault with an object”.

但修订后的定义下的计数还包括 611 起强奸男性受害者案件、7,602 起被归类为“鸡奸”（未经同意的口交或肛交）案件以及 3,043 起“物体性侵犯”案件。

This change in definition means we cannot get a complete understanding of how rape rates have changed since 1979.

定义的这一变化意味着我们无法完全了解 1979 年以来强奸率的变化情况。

But the data does show that rape of women (using the narrower definition) became less common from a peak in the early 1990s, through to the early 2010s.

但数据确实表明，从 20 世纪 90 年代初的高峰期到 2010 年代初，强奸妇女行为（使用狭义的定义）变得不那么常见。

After that point, rates start to climb slightly.

在那之后，利率开始小幅攀升。

The revised definition shows an increase to 2020, before falling back to rates equivalent to the mid-2010s.

修订后的定义显示，到 2020 年有所增加，然后回落到 2010 年代中期的水平。

What about non-violent crimes?

那么非暴力犯罪呢？

These tend to fall under the banner of property crimes .

这些往往属于财产犯罪的范畴。

Property crimes involve the stealing, damage, or destruction of someone’s property.

财产犯罪涉及盗窃、损坏或毁坏某人的财产。

This includes offenses such as burglary, larceny (which is more like pickpocketing, and without breaking and entering), theft, and arson.

这包括入室行窃、盗窃（更像是扒窃，并且没有破门而入）、盗窃和纵火等犯罪行为。

In the chart below, you can see how property crime rates have changed over the past half-century.

在下图中，您可以看到过去半个世纪以来财产犯罪率的变化。

The trend is similar to what we saw for violent crime.

这一趋势与我们在暴力犯罪中看到的趋势类似。

Rates were high throughout the 1980s and into the early 1990s, but have fallen by 60% in the last 30 years.

整个 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代初，利率一直很高，但在过去 30 年里下降了 60%。

Unlike violent crime rates, there has been less variability from year to year, resulting in a fairly consistent downward trend.

与暴力犯罪率不同的是，每年的变化较小，导致呈相当一致的下降趋势。

At the peak, there were around 5,000 offenses per 100,000 people.

最高峰时，每 10 万人中约有 5,000 起违法行为。

That’s one for every 20th person in the population, each year.

每年每 20 人就有一个。

Since then, it has fallen to fewer than 1 per 50 people.

从那时起，这一数字已降至每 50 人中不到 1 人。

Again, the chart below looks at trends for different types of property crime.

同样，下图显示了不同类型财产犯罪的趋势。

6 Larceny and burglary have mirrored the steady decline since the 1990s.

6 盗窃和入室盗窃案件自 20 世纪 90 年代以来稳步下降。

Motor vehicle theft has been on a bumpier road, with a more distinct peak around the 1990s, a rebound in the early 2000s, and a smaller uptick in rates over the last five years.

机动车盗窃的发展道路更加坎坷，在 90 年代左右出现了更为明显的高峰，在 2000 年代初出现反弹，在过去五年中犯罪率上升幅度较小。

To put these numbers in absolute terms: in 1991, around 1.7 million vehicles were stolen in the United States.

从绝对数字来看：1991 年，美国约有 170 万辆汽车被盗。

In recent years, that number has fluctuated between 700,000 and 1 million.

近年来，这个数字在70万到100万之间波动。

We send two regular newsletters so you can stay up to date on our work and receive curated highlights from across Our World in Data.

我们定期发送两份时事通讯，以便您及时了解我们的工作并接收来自“我们的数据世界”的精选亮点。

The overall trend in both violent and property crimes has been downward over the last 30 years.

过去 30 年来，暴力犯罪和财产犯罪的总体趋势一直呈下降趋势。

Americans in the 1990s were at least twice as likely to be victims of crime as they are today.

20 世纪 90 年代的美国人成为犯罪受害者的可能性至少是现在的两倍。

This is also true at a global level.

在全球范围内也是如此。

While we don’t have consistent data on theft and assaults, we see that global homicide rates have gone down in recent decades.

虽然我们没有关于盗窃和袭击的一致数据，但我们看到近几十年来全球凶杀率有所下降。

The polling agency Gallup has conducted numerous surveys asking Americans how they perceive changes in crime rates since 1993.

民意调查机构盖洛普进行了大量调查，询问美国人如何看待自 1993 年以来犯罪率的变化。

In 23 out of the 27 annual surveys, the majority said that they believed crime rates had increased from the previous year.

在 27 项年度调查中的 23 项中，大多数人表示他们认为犯罪率比上一年有所上升。

It is not true that crime has fallen every year; there have been periods of elevated rates along the way.

犯罪率每年都在下降，这是不正确的。在此过程中曾出现过一段时间的利率上升时期。

The start of the 2020s is a clear example.

2020 年代初就是一个明显的例子。

But rates in most years have indeed been lower than in the previous year.

但大多数年份的利率确实低于前一年。

Most of the time, the popular perception was therefore at odds with the data.

因此，大多数时候，大众的看法与数据不一致。

One reason why people often think that crime is rising is that they constantly see individual events on the news.

人们经常认为犯罪率上升的原因之一是他们经常在新闻中看到个别事件。

7 As we showed in a recent article , homicides dominate coverage related to causes of death in leading news outlets across the political spectrum.

7 正如我们在最近的一篇文章中所表明的那样，凶杀案在各个政治领域的主要新闻媒体的死因相关报道中占据主导地位。

Homicides received 40% to 50% of “causes of death” coverage, despite making up less than 1% of deaths.

尽管凶杀案仅占死亡人数的不到 1%，但其在“死因”报道中所占比例为 40% 至 50%。

This disconnect between perceptions and the reality of crime rates is understandable.

犯罪率的认知与现实之间的脱节是可以理解的。

It’s impossible to get a sense of the broader changes in crime from individual stories alone.

仅从个别故事中不可能了解犯罪活动的更广泛变化。

To get a sense of perspective, we need to step back and look at consistent data over time.

为了获得透视感，我们需要退后一步，查看一段时间内的一致数据。

What do Americans die from, and what do the New York Times, Washington Post, and Fox News report on?

美国人死于什么？《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》和福克斯新闻报道什么？

There are several ways to measure homicides.

有多种方法可以衡量凶杀案。

What approaches do different sources take?

不同来源采取什么方法？

And when is which approach best?

什么时候哪种方法最好？

Gramlich (2024).

格拉姆利奇（2024）。

What the data says about crime in the U.S .

这些数据说明了美国的犯罪情况

Pew Research Center.

皮尤研究中心。

Countries may use different definitions for homicide records (if they have consistent records at all).

各国可能对凶杀记录使用不同的定义（如果它们有一致的记录）。

That’s why different national and international datasets often yield different estimates for the same country, and why we usually caution against comparing countries with very distinct coverage.

这就是为什么不同的国家和国际数据集经常对同一国家产生不同的估计，也是为什么我们通常警告不要比较覆盖范围截然不同的国家。

Federal Bureau of Investigation (2025).

联邦调查局 (2025)。

Estimated crime totals for the nation and all 50 states, 1979–2024.

1979 年至 2024 年全国和所有 50 个州的估计犯罪总数。

Summary Reporting System (SRS) Estimates.

摘要报告系统 (SRS) 估算。

In this long-run dataset, the Summary Reporting System (SRS), if multiple crimes are committed in the same offense, the FBI only records the most serious crime in the dataset.

在这个长期数据集中，摘要报告系统（SRS）中，如果同一罪行中发生了多种犯罪，FBI 仅记录数据集中最严重的犯罪。

For example, if a burglary resulted in a homicide, the homicide would be the crime that would appear in the data.

例如，如果入室盗窃导致凶杀案，则凶杀案将是数据中出现的犯罪。

This is called the “hierarchy rule”.

这就是所谓的“等级规则”。

Over the last few decades, the FBI has been transitioning to a separate reporting program — The National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) — which does not use the hierarchy rule, and can record up to 10 offenses per criminal incident.

在过去的几十年里，FBI 一直在转向一个单独的报告计划——国家基于事件的报告系统 (NIBRS)——该系统不使用等级规则，每起犯罪事件最多可以记录 10 项犯罪行为。

Unfortunately, estimates from this data do not extend as far back in time, and are much patchier in earlier years, as it took agencies some time to move to the new, more detailed system.

不幸的是，这些数据的估计并没有追溯到那么久远的时间，而且早些年的估计也更加不完整，因为各机构花了一些时间才转向新的、更详细的系统。

Several studies have compared crime rates between the Summary Reporting System, which we use in this article, and the NIBRS, which includes multiple crimes.

多项研究比较了我们在本文中使用的摘要报告系统和 NIBRS（包括多种犯罪）之间的犯罪率。

You can find an in-depth discussion of the results here .

您可以在此处找到对结果的深入讨论。

They find relatively small differences in crime rates.

他们发现犯罪率差异相对较小。

Overall, the transition to the NIBRS increased national crime rates by around 2%.

总体而言，向 NIBRS 的过渡使国家犯罪率增加了约 2%。

It had differential impacts on specific types of crimes, with a “less than a 0.1% increase for rape, a 0.6% increase for robbery and aggravated assault, a 1.0% increase for burglary, a 2.6% increase for larceny, and a 2.7% increase for motor vehicle theft.”

它对特定类型的犯罪有不同的影响，“强奸犯罪增加不到 0.1%，抢劫和严重袭击增加 0.6%，入室盗窃增加 1.0%，盗窃增加 2.6%，机动车辆盗窃增加 2.7%。”

The analysis concludes that “these results suggest that NIBRS does not significantly alter crime rates at the national level, but individual local agencies, especially in low-crime areas, may see notable increases in the reported numbers and rates of some offenses due to low base rates of crime.”

分析得出的结论是，“这些结果表明，NIBRS 不会显着改变国家层面的犯罪率，但个别地方机构，特别是在低犯罪率地区，由于基本犯罪率较低，可能会发现某些犯罪的报告数量和比率显着增加。”

As we explain later in the article, the time series for rape includes some methodological changes that affect its comparability over time.

正如我们在本文后面所解释的，强奸的时间序列包括一些方法上的变化，这些变化会影响其随时间的可比性。

These crimes are included in the aggregate of “violent crimes”.

这些犯罪行为都属于“暴力犯罪”的范畴。

In 2013, there was a methodological change in how rape cases were recorded, which is more encompassing, so we’d expect some increase in the number of cases thereafter (even if the actual number of crimes did not change).

2013 年，强奸案件的记录方式发生了变化，范围更广，因此我们预计此后案件数量会有所增加（即使实际犯罪数量没有变化）。

This may be one of the factors contributing to the small increase in rates of violent crime in the chart around this time.

这可能是导致图表中暴力犯罪率在此时小幅上升的因素之一。

We do not expect that differences in rape definition over time affect the overall direction or trend of violent crime in the past three decades.

我们预计，随着时间的推移，强奸定义的差异不会影响过去三十年暴力犯罪的总体方向或趋势。

Unfortunately, individual counts of arson are not available from the source, so this category of crime is not shown.

不幸的是，无法从来源获得个人纵火罪的数量，因此没有显示此类犯罪。

As the FBI states :

正如联邦调查局所说：

“Although arson data are included in the trend and clearance tables, sufficient data are not available to estimate totals for this offense.”

“尽管纵火数据包含在趋势和清除表中，但没有足够的数据来估计此类犯罪的总数。”

This is related to an “availability bias” or “ availability heuristic ”, where we give greater importance to recent examples of something that come to mind.

这与“可用性偏差”或“可用性启发式”有关，在这种情况下，我们更加重视最近想到的一些例子。

We are biased towards things we can quickly recall.

我们偏向于能够快速回忆起来的事情。

Our articles and data visualizations rely on work from many different people and organizations.

我们的文章和数据可视化依赖于许多不同的人和组织的工作。

When citing this article, please also cite the underlying data sources.

引用本文时，请同时注明底层数据来源。

This article can be cited as:

这篇文章可以引用为：

We are a live site and we keep our work maintained.

我们是一个活跃的网站，我们会保持我们的工作。

So our articles are often changed, including the data.

所以我们的文章经常改，包括数据。

You can browse previous versions of this work here.

您可以在此处浏览此作品的先前版本。