How much are people across the world paying for their carbon emissions?

Recently, I was in a meeting with a group of people who do not normally spend much time in the same room: environmentalists, climate scientists, and economists.

最近，我与一群通常不会花太多时间在同一个房间里的人开会：环保主义者、气候科学家和经济学家。

Over several days, we debated and tried to untangle some of the most contested issues around climate change: how drastic the impacts would be, what solutions would look like, and what this would mean for global development.

几天来，我们辩论并试图解决一些围绕气候变化最有争议的问题：影响有多大，解决方案是什么样的，以及这对全球发展意味着什么。

The discussions were intense.

讨论非常激烈。

There were disagreements left, right, and center.

左派、右派和中间派都存在分歧。

Despite all of the differences in the room, it struck me that there was one thing everyone agreed on: those who emit greenhouse gases should pay for the damage they cause — there should be a price on carbon.

尽管房间里存在各种分歧，但令我震惊的是，每个人都同意一件事：那些排放温室气体的人应该为他们造成的损害付出代价——应该对碳定价。

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How, then, is the world acting on this rare consensus between environmentalists and economists?

那么，世界如何根据环保主义者和经济学家之间的这一罕见共识采取行动呢？

We’ve made some progress.

我们已经取得了一些进展。

In 2010, just 7% of the world’s carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions were covered by a carbon price, either through a tax or a carbon trading scheme.

2010 年，全球二氧化碳 (CO 2 ) 排放量中只有 7% 通过税收或碳交易计划纳入碳价格范围。

Last year, 30% were.

去年，这一比例为 30%。

But to be effective, carbon prices need to be high enough to make a meaningful difference to the price of goods and services — enough to incentivize innovation and to make cleaner alternatives meaningfully cheaper.

但为了发挥作用，碳价格需要足够高，才能对商品和服务的价格产生有意义的影响——足以激励创新，并使更清洁的替代品变得更便宜。

Carbon pricing schemes are lined up from the most expensive on the left to the cheapest on the right.

碳定价方案从左边最贵到右边最便宜排列。

The width of each step shows the share of the world’s CO 2 emissions it covers.

每个阶梯的宽度显示了其所涵盖的世界 CO 2 排放量的份额。

This not only reflects differences across countries, but is also specific to the sectors or fuels within countries that are priced.

这不仅反映了国家之间的差异，而且还针对定价国家内的部门或燃料。

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On the very left-hand side of the chart, you can see that a small share of emissions — less than 0.5% of the total — are taxed at more than $100 per tonne.

在图表的最左侧，您可以看到一小部分排放量（不到总量的 0.5%）的税率超过每吨 100 美元。

This is the emissions-weighted price in Uruguay, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Switzerland, and Hungary.

这是乌拉圭、瑞典、挪威、芬兰、瑞士和匈牙利的排放加权价格。

Many countries in Western Europe charge prices in the $65–90 range, mostly due to the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme.

西欧许多国家收取 65 至 90 美元的价格，主要是由于欧盟的排放交易计划。

These emissions account for around 5% of the total.

这些排放量约占总量的5%。

The majority of carbon markets charge very little: most charge less than $10 per tonne, and some barely a dollar.

大多数碳市场收费非常低：大多数收费低于每吨 10 美元，有些甚至不到 1 美元。

At 29%, the red line drops to zero: that’s because the remaining 71% of emissions have no carbon price at all.

在 29% 时，红线降至零：这是因为其余 71% 的排放量根本没有碳价格。

Explore this data in an interactive visualization, and see the distribution for previous years.

在交互式可视化中探索这些数据，并查看前几年的分布情况。

The rationale for a carbon price is simple: the true cost of burning fossil fuels is not reflected in their market price.

碳价格的理由很简单：燃烧化石燃料的真实成本并未反映在其市场价格中。

The greenhouse gas emissions they generate cause damage, but those costs are not necessarily felt by those who caused them.

它们产生的温室气体排放会造成损害，但造成它们的人不一定会感受到这些成本。

The point of a carbon tax is to reflect those damages in the price of products and fuels, so that those responsible for the emissions pay a fair price.

碳税的目的是将这些损害反映在产品和燃料的价格中，以便那些对排放负有责任的人付出公平的代价。

There is no consensus on what that fair price should be.

对于合理的价格应该是多少还没有达成共识。

Hundreds of academic papers have tried to estimate the “social cost of carbon” — the cost in damages of emitting one tonne of CO₂ today.

数百篇学术论文试图估算“碳的社会成本”——当今排放一吨二氧化碳造成的损害成本。

They span a wide range, but median estimates tend to be greater than $100 per tonne of CO 2 .

它们的范围很广，但中值估计往往高于每吨 CO 2 100 美元。

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This is far higher than the price in almost every carbon market across the world, as we just saw in the chart above.

正如我们在上图中看到的那样，这远远高于全球几乎每个碳市场的价格。

How do carbon prices actually change how much we pay for energy?

碳价格实际上如何改变我们为能源支付的费用？

At $5 per tonne, the cost of filling your car with petrol would increase by less than 1%.

以每吨 5 美元计算，汽车加油成本将增加不到 1%。

5 That’s a small increase compared to the typical fluctuations a driver would see at the petrol pump from month to month.

5 与驾驶员每月在汽油泵上看到的典型波动相比，这只是一个小幅增长。

In unremarkable years, price swings of 10% to 15% are common in oil markets.

在平淡的年份，石油市场10%至15%的价格波动很常见。

And during fuel crises, price increases are even more extreme: the recent war in Iran has led to a 50% price hike .

而在燃料危机期间，价格上涨更为极端：最近的伊朗战争导致价格上涨50%。

At a carbon price of $10 per tonne, the increase would still be only 2%.

按每吨 10 美元的碳价计算，增幅仍仅为 2%。

6 Again, barely anything.

6 再说​​一次，几乎什么也没有。

It’s only when carbon prices get into the $100 per tonne range — which is broadly in line with estimates of climate damages — that price changes start to register: petrol prices increase by around 15%.

只有当碳价达到每吨 100 美元的范围（这与气候损害的估计大致一致）时，价格变化才开始显现：汽油价格上涨约 15%。

That’s about the same magnitude as regular swings in oil markets.

这与石油市场的常规波动幅度大致相同。

7 Yet almost no carbon market charges this much.

7 然而，几乎没有碳市场收取如此高的费用。

The unexpected allies at that climate meeting didn’t just agree that there should be a price on carbon, but that it should be far higher than most people are paying today.

在那次气候会议上，意想不到的盟友不仅同意应该对碳定价，而且还认为它应该远远高于大多数人今天支付的价格。

Many thanks to Carl Edward Rasmussen for the suggestion of this visualization.

非常感谢 Carl Edward Rasmussen 对这个可视化的建议。

Thanks also to Max Roser and Edouard Mathieu for editorial feedback and comments, and to Geoffroy Dolphin for help with the data.

还要感谢 Max Roser 和 Edouard Mathieu 的编辑反馈和评论，以及 Geoffroy Dolphin 提供的数据帮助。

Putting a price on carbon helps us account for the real costs of fossil fuels in the market.

为碳定价有助于我们计算市场上化石燃料的实际成本。

Which countries have a carbon tax or trading system?

哪些国家有碳税或交易体系？

We are paying a price for fossil fuels, but that price is not paid by those who burn the fossil fuels — we need to change that.

我们正在为化石燃料付出代价，但这个代价并不是由那些燃烧化石燃料的人付出的——我们需要改变这一点。

Estimates range from less than $1 trillion to $7 trillion.

估计范围从不到 1 万亿美元到 7 万亿美元不等。

Where do these numbers come from?

这些数字从何而来？

Most economists from across the political spectrum agree on the effectiveness of a carbon tax.

大多数不同政治派别的经济学家都同意碳税的有效性。

The IGM Forum Survey , run by Chicago Booth, polls around 40 prominent economists from across the political spectrum on key issues.

IGM 论坛调查由芝加哥布斯商学院 (Chicago Booth) 主办，对来自各个政治派别的约 40 名著名经济学家就关键问题进行了民意调查。

When asked whether a carbon tax would be a less expensive way to reduce emissions than other policy choices, almost all consistently agree or strongly agree.

当被问及碳税是否是一种比其他政策选择更便宜的减排方式时，几乎所有人都一致同意或强烈同意。

This is based on a dataset published by Geoffroy Dolphin and Magnus Merkle.

这是基于 Geoffroy Dolphin 和 Magnus Merkle 发布的数据集。

Dolphin, G., Merkle, M.

海豚，G.，默克尔，M.

(2024).

（2024）。

Emissions-weighted Carbon Price: Source and Methods .

排放加权碳价格：来源和方法。

Scientific Data .

科学数据。

Prices shown are the emissions-weighted average across sectors that have a carbon price.

显示的价格是具有碳价格的部门的排放加权平均值。

As an example, China has a carbon trading scheme for only some of its sectors (primarily the electricity sector).

例如，中国仅针对部分行业（主要是电力行业）制定了碳交易计划。

On the chart, this shows as approximately 15% of the world’s emissions.

在图表中，这约占世界排放量的 15%。

China’s total economy-wide emissions are 32% of the global total .

中国经济总量排放量占全球总量的32%。

So only around half of its emissions are priced.

因此，只有大约一半的排放量被定价。

In a database published by Richard Tol, which included around 11,500 estimates across 147 studies, the median cost was $103 per tonne of CO2.

Richard Tol 发布的数据库包含 147 项研究中的约 11,500 项估计，其中每吨二氧化碳的成本中位数为 103 美元。

The mean was $165.

平均值为 165 美元。

Tol, R.

托尔，R.

S.

S。

(2024).

（2024）。

Database for the meta-analysis of the social cost of carbon (v2026.

碳社会成本荟萃分析数据库 (v2026.

1).

1）。

arXiv preprint arXiv:2402.09125.

arXiv 预印本 arXiv：2402.09125。

Another meta-analysis, published in 2024, yielded a figure of $132.

2024 年发布的另一项荟萃分析得出的数字为 132 美元。

F.C.

F.C.

Moore, M.A.

摩尔，文学硕士

Drupp, J.

德鲁普，J.

Rising, S.

瑞星，S.

Dietz, I.

迪茨，I.

Rudik, & G.

鲁迪克，G.

Wagner, Synthesis of evidence yields high social cost of carbon due to structural model variation and uncertainties.

瓦格纳，由于结构模型的变化和不确定性，证据的综合产生了较高的碳社会成本。

PNAS.

美国国家科学院院刊。

I’ve calculated based on the price change per liter of petrol.

我根据每升汽油的价格变化进行了计算。

Burning one liter of petrol emits around 2.3 kilograms of CO 2 , or 0.0023 tonnes.

燃烧一升汽油会排放约 2.3 公斤 CO 2 ，​​即 0.0023 吨。

At a price of $5 per tonne of CO 2 , that’s an additional cost of around 1 cent [0.0023 * 5 = $0.0115].

按每吨 CO 2 5 美元的价格计算，这意味着大约 1 美分的额外成本 [0.0023 * 5 = 0.0115 美元]。

Petrol prices typically vary from around $0.82 per liter in the US to around $2 per liter in the EU .

汽油价格通常从美国每升 0.82 美元左右到欧盟每升 2 美元左右不等。

Let’s assume $1.50, which is typical in a country like China.

我们假设 1.50 美元，这在中国这样的国家很常见。

A $0.01 price increase on a $1.50 liter of petrol is just a 0.8% increase.

每升 1.50 美元的汽油价格上涨 0.01 美元，仅上涨 0.8%。

In the EU, it would be just 0.6%, and in the US, 1.4%.

在欧盟，这一比例仅为 0.6%，在美国为 1.4%。

At $10 per tonne, the price increase for a $1.50 liter of petrol would be just $0.02, which is 2%.

按每吨 10 美元计算，每升 1.50 美元的汽油价格仅上涨 0.02 美元，即 2%。

Our articles and data visualizations rely on work from many different people and organizations.

我们的文章和数据可视化依赖于许多不同的人和组织的工作。

When citing this article, please also cite the underlying data sources.

引用本文时，请同时注明底层数据来源。

This article can be cited as:

这篇文章可以引用为：

We are a live site and we keep our work maintained.

我们是一个活跃的网站，我们会保持我们的工作。

So our articles are often changed, including the data.

所以我们的文章经常改，包括数据。

You can browse previous versions of this work here.

您可以在此处浏览此作品的先前版本。