The end of progress against extreme poverty?

In the last decades, the world has made fantastic progress against extreme poverty.

过去几十年来，世界在消除极端贫困方面取得了巨大进展。

In 1990, 2.3 billion people lived in extreme poverty.

1990年，23亿人生活在赤贫之中。

Since then, the number of extremely poor people has declined by 1.5 billion people .

自此，极端贫困人口数量减少了15亿。

This means on any average day in the last 35 years, about 115,000 people left extreme poverty behind.

这意味着过去 35 年平均每天约有 115,000 人摆脱了极端贫困。

1 Leaving the very worst poverty behind doesn’t mean a life free of want, but it does mean a big change.

1 摆脱最严重的贫困并不意味着生活不再匮乏，但它确实意味着巨大的改变。

Additional income matters most for those who have the least.

对于那些收入最少的人来说，额外收入最重要。

It means having the chance to leave hunger behind, to gain access to clean water, to access better healthcare, and to have at least some electricity — for light at night and perhaps even to cook and heat.

这意味着有机会摆脱饥饿，获得清洁水，获得更好的医疗保健，并且至少有一些电力——夜间照明，甚至做饭和取暖。

Unfortunately, we cannot.

不幸的是，我们不能。

Based on current trends , progress against extreme poverty will come to a halt.

从目前的趋势来看，消除极端贫困的进展将陷入停滞。

As we’ll see, the number of people in extreme poverty is projected to decline, from 817 million people in 2025 to 782 million people in 2030.

正如我们将看到的，极端贫困人口数量预计将会减少，从 2025 年的 8.17 亿人减少到 2030 年的 7.82 亿人。

After 2030, the number of extremely poor people is expected to increase.

2030年后，极端贫困人口数量预计将增加。

To understand why the rapid progress against deep poverty will not continue into the future, we need to know why the world made progress in the past.

为了理解为什么消除深度贫困的快速进展在未来不会持续下去，我们需要知道为什么世界在过去取得了进步。

Extreme poverty declined in the last three decades because, back in the 1990s, the majority of the poorest people on the planet lived in countries that subsequently achieved very fast economic growth.

过去三十年，极端贫困有所减少，因为早在 20 世纪 90 年代，地球上大多数最贫困人口就生活在随后实现了快速经济增长的国家。

In Indonesia and China, more than two-thirds of the population lived in extreme poverty.

在印度尼西亚和中国，超过三分之二的人口生活在极端贫困之中。

But these economies then grew rapidly, so that by today, the share has declined to less than 10% .

但这些经济体随后迅速增长，以至于到了今天，这一比例已经下降到不足10%。

Other large Asian countries — including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Philippines — also achieved strong growth, and as a consequence, the share living in extreme poverty declined rapidly .

其他亚洲大国——包括印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国和菲律宾——也实现了强劲增长，因此，生活在极端贫困中的比例迅速下降。

Much of the progress happened in Asia, but conditions in other regions improved too: the share living in extreme poverty also declined in Ghana, Cape Verde, Cameroon, Panama, Bolivia, Mexico, Brazil, and many other countries.

大部分进展发生在亚洲，但其他地区的情况也有所改善：加纳、佛得角、喀麦隆、巴拿马、玻利维亚、墨西哥、巴西和许多其他国家的极端贫困人口比例也有所下降。

This chart shows the economic change in these countries over the past decades.

这张图表显示了这些国家过去几十年的经济变化。

As incomes increased, the share of people in extreme poverty declined.

随着收入增加，极端贫困人口比例下降。

What is different today is that the majority of the world’s poorest people are stuck in economies that have been stagnating for a long time.

今天的不同之处在于，世界上大多数最贫穷的人都陷入了长期停滞的经济之中。

Consider the case of Madagascar.

考虑一下马达加斯加的例子。

In the long run, the country has not seen any growth at all: GDP per capita in Madagascar is about the same today as it was in 1950.

从长远来看，该国根本没有出现任何增长：马达加斯加今天的人均国内生产总值与 1950 年大致相同。

As a consequence, the number of people in extreme poverty increased in line with the country’s population growth.

结果，极端贫困人口的数量随着该国人口的增长而增加。

In richer countries, it is possible to reduce poverty by reducing inequality through redistribution, but a country like Madagascar cannot reduce its share of people in extreme poverty through redistribution.

在较富裕的国家，可以通过再分配减少不平等来减少贫困，但像马达加斯加这样的国家无法通过再分配减少赤贫人口比例。

This is because the mean income is lower than the poverty line; if everyone had the same income, everyone would be living in extreme poverty.

这是因为平均收入低于贫困线；如果每个人都有相同的收入，每个人都会生活在赤贫之中。

The situation is similar in other countries, as the chart below shows: in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Malawi, Burundi, and the Central African Republic, more than half of the population lives in extreme poverty.

其他国家的情况也类似，如下图所示：在刚果民主共和国、莫桑比克、马拉维、布隆迪和中非共和国，一半以上的人口生活在赤贫之中。

As their economies have stagnated , the deep poverty that most people live in has remained largely unchanged for decades.

由于经济停滞不前，大多数人所生活的深度贫困几十年来基本没有改变。

This is why we have to expect the end of progress against extreme poverty based on current trends.

这就是为什么根据目前的趋势，我们必须预期消除极端贫困的进展将会结束。

If the poorest economies remain stagnant, hundreds of millions of people will continue to live in extreme poverty.

如果最贫穷的经济体继续停滞不前，数亿人将继续生活在极端贫困之中。

I’m always skeptical when people say that we are at a juncture in history where the future looks much different than the past.

当人们说我们正处于历史的转折点，未来看起来与过去有很大不同时，我总是持怀疑态度。

But when it comes to the fight against extreme poverty, I fear it is true.

但当谈到对抗极端贫困时，我担心这是真的。

Today, the majority of the world’s poorest people are living in economies that have not achieved economic growth in the recent past.

如今，世界上大多数最贫困人口生活在近期尚未实现经济增长的经济体中。

The projection below makes this difference clear: the future we can expect looks very different from the recent past.

下面的预测清楚地表明了这种差异：我们可以预期的未来看起来与最近的过去非常不同。

This chart is based on the latest available projection made by the researchers at the World Bank.

该图表基于世界银行研究人员所做的最新预测。

2 Up to 2030, this projection is based on the latest growth projections from the World Bank and the IMF.

2 到 2030 年，该预测基于世界银行和国际货币基金组织的最新增长预测。

From 2031 onward, poverty projections are based on the average growth rates observed from 2015 to 2024.

从 2031 年起，贫困预测将基于 2015 年至 2024 年观察到的平均增长率。

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These projections show that we cannot expect a continuation of the strong decline of the past.

这些预测表明，我们不能指望过去的强劲下滑会持续下去。

After 2030, the number of people in extreme poverty is projected to increase.

2030年之后，极端贫困人口预计将会增加。

Based on current trends, we have to expect the end of progress against extreme poverty.

根据目前的趋势，我们必须预期消除极端贫困的进展将会结束。

The chart also shows how the geographic distribution of poverty has shifted.

该图表还显示了贫困的地理分布如何变化。

Three decades ago, most extremely poor people lived in Asia; today, most are in Sub-Saharan Africa.

三十年前，大多数赤贫人口生活在亚洲；现在，大多数赤贫人口生活在亚洲。如今，大多数位于撒哈拉以南非洲。

In the coming years, this trend is expected to continue.

未来几年，这一趋势预计将持续下去。

Growth in Asia will largely end extreme poverty in the region, while the economic stagnation and population growth in several African countries will mean that the number of people in extreme poverty there will stagnate or even increase.

亚洲的增长将在很大程度上消除该地区的极端贫困，而一些非洲国家的经济停滞和人口增长将意味着那里的极端贫困人口数量将停滞甚至增加。

Of course, this is not just a concern until 2040: without rising incomes in the poorest regions, extreme poverty will remain a reality.

当然，这不仅仅是2040年之前的一个问题：如果最贫困地区的收入不增加，极端贫困仍将是一个现实。

The UN was right to make the “eradication of extreme poverty for all people everywhere” goal number one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

联合国将“为世界各地所有人消除极端贫困”作为可持续发展目标（SDG）的第一目标是正确的。

Unfortunately, the world is clearly not on track to achieve this most important goal.

不幸的是，世界显然还没有走上实现这一最重要目标的轨道。

Crucially, the expectations are dire for the very poorest regions in the world, but much less so for those who have left extreme poverty behind.

至关重要的是，对于世界上最贫困的地区来说，期望是可怕的，但对于那些摆脱极端贫困的人来说则更是如此。

Based on current growth, we can be optimistic that the world will continue to make progress relative to higher poverty thresholds.

基于目前的增长，我们可以乐观地认为世界将继续在提高贫困线方面取得进展。

The number of people living on $5 or $10 a day will likely continue to decline .

每天靠 5 美元或 10 美元生活的人数可能会继续下降。

This is one reason why those who say the international poverty line needs to be higher are wrong.

这就是为什么那些认为国际贫困线需要更高的人是错误的原因之一。

Economic growth is most important for the very poorest, and without a very low poverty line, we cannot see whether growth is lifting the poorest out of poverty.

经济增长对于最贫穷的人来说是最重要的，如果没有非常低的贫困线，我们就无法看到经济增长是否正在使最贫穷的人摆脱贫困。

This is the reason we, at Our World in Data, have always published data on a wide range of definitions of poverty.

这就是我们在“我们的数据世界”中始终发布有关各种贫困定义的数据的原因。

One poverty line is not enough, and we need to rely on several poverty lines — higher and lower than the international poverty line — to understand how the world is changing.

一条贫困线是不够的，我们需要依靠几条贫困线——高于和低于国际贫困线——来了解世界正在如何变化。

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It’s no news that we should expect an end to progress against extreme poverty.

我们应该期望在消除极端贫困方面取得进展，这已经不是什么新闻了。

This article is an update of an article I published in 2019, in which I wrote the same: the fact that the poorest economies are not growing means that the rapid progress against extreme poverty seen in the last decades will end.

本文是我在 2019 年发表的一篇文章的更新，其中我写了同样的内容：最贫穷的经济体没有增长这一事实意味着过去几十年来消除极端贫困的快速进展将结束。

Although this prospect has been known for years, it has hardly received the attention it deserves.

尽管这一前景早已为人所知，但几乎没有得到应有的关注。

Progress against extreme poverty was one of humanity's most outstanding achievements of the past decades — the end of it would be one of the very worst realities of the coming ones.

消除极端贫困的进展是过去几十年来人类最杰出的成就之一——它的结束将是未来最糟糕的现实之一。

Importantly, however, these projections are not predictions; their purpose is not to describe what the world in 2030 or 2040 will certainly look like.

然而，重要的是，这些预测并不是预测；而是预测。他们的目的并不是要描述 2030 年或 2040 年的世界将会是什么样子。

These projections describe what we have to expect based on current trends; they tell us about our present world rather than the reality of tomorrow.

这些预测描述了我们根据当前趋势的预期；它们告诉我们现在的世界，而不是明天的现实。

Current trends don’t have to become future facts: many countries left extreme poverty behind in the past, because they had a moment at which they broke out of stagnation .

当前的趋势不一定会成为未来的事实：许多国家过去摆脱了极端贫困，因为它们曾经有过摆脱停滞的时刻。

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What these projections tell us, however, is that if the poorest countries do not start to grow, a very bleak future is ahead of us: a future in which extreme poverty remains the reality for hundreds of millions for many years to come.

然而，这些预测告诉我们，如果最贫穷的国家不开始增长，我们的未来将非常黯淡：在未来的许多年里，赤贫仍然是数亿人面临的现实。

The international poverty line that defines extreme poverty was last updated in 2025.

定义极端贫困的国际贫困线最近一次更新是在 2025 年。

My colleagues Joe Hasell, Bertha Rohenkohl, and Pablo Arriagada explain in their article what this update means for the measurement and our understanding of extreme poverty.

我的同事 Joe Hasell、Bertha Rohenkohl 和 Pablo Arriagada 在他们的文章中解释了这一更新对于测量和我们对极端贫困的理解意味着什么。

You can find all our work on poverty on our dedicated topic page.

您可以在我们的专门主题页面上找到我们所有关于贫困的工作。

I would like to thank Bertha Rohenkohl, Pablo Arriagada, Simon van Teutem, and Edouard Mathieu for their helpful comments on drafts of this essay and the visualizations.

我要感谢 Bertha Rohenkohl、Pablo Arriagada、Simon van Teutem 和 Edouard Mathieu 对本文草稿和可视化的有益评论。

This is an update of an article that I published in May 2019 on Our World in Data, titled “ As the world’s poorest economies are stagnating, half a billion are expected to be in extreme poverty in 2030 ”.

这是我于 2019 年 5 月在《我们的数据世界》上发表的一篇文章的更新，题为“由于世界上最贫困的经济体陷入停滞，预计 2030 年将有 5 亿人陷入极端贫困”。

Based on even earlier projections, I also made this a central point of my presentation to the UN back in 2018, for which you can find my slides here .

根据更早的预测，我也将其作为 2018 年向联合国演讲的中心点，您可以在此处找到我的幻灯片。

People in extreme poverty in 1990 (data here ): 2,310,000,000 people.

1990年极端贫困人口（数据见此处）：23.1亿人。

In 2025: 808,210,000 people.

2025 年：808,210,000 人。

Daily reduction of the number of people in extreme poverty: 117,557 per day = (2,310,000,000-808,210,000)/(35*365)

每日减少赤贫人数：每天117,557人=(2,310,000,000-808,210,000)/(35*365)

Different projections from different research teams made in recent years have shown the same .

近年来不同研究团队做出的不同预测也表明了这一点。

To generate the poverty projections up to 2030, World Bank researchers take the last observed distribution of income or consumption expenditure based on household surveys and model the shift in line with the projected growth in real GDP per capita from national accounts data.

为了做出截至 2030 年的贫困预测，世界银行研究人员根据家庭调查得出最后观察到的收入或消费支出的分布，并根据国民账户数据预测的实际人均 GDP 增长对这种变化进行建模。

The GDP forecasts are those of the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects (June 2025) and the IMF's World Economic Outlook (April 2025).

GDP预测来自世界银行的《全球经济展望》（2025年6月）和国际货币基金组织的《世界经济展望》（2025年4月）。

Projections for 2031 onwards are based on average annual GDP per capita growth data observed from 2015 to 2024.

2031年以后的预测基于2015年至2024年观察到的人均GDP年均增长数据。

For both cases, the method also assumes that income inequality doesn’t change over time.

对于这两种情况，该方法还假设收入不平等不会随着时间的推移而改变。

You can read more about this projection method in the World Bank Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024 (Annex 1).

您可以在世界银行《2024 年贫困、繁荣和地球报告》（附件 1）中了解有关此预测方法的更多信息。

Lakner, C., Foster, E.

拉克纳，C.，福斯特，E.

M., Jolliffe, D., Ibarra, G.

M.、乔利夫，D.、伊瓦拉，G.

L., & Tetteh Baah, S.

L.，＆Tetteh Baah，S.

K.

K.

(2025) — Reproducibility Package for Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs And New Data On Consumption.

(2025) — 使用 2021 年购买力平价和新消费数据重新审视全球贫困的再现性一揽子计划。

World Bank.

世界银行。

On this point, see, for example, this earlier article of mine.

关于这一点，请参阅我之前的这篇文章。

The big lesson from the history of extreme poverty is that it is the growth of an entire economy that lifts individuals out of poverty.

极端贫困历史的重要教训是，只有整个经济的增长才能使个人摆脱贫困。

The key to ending extreme poverty globally will be that the poorest countries achieve the difficult task of economic growth.

全球消除极端贫困的关键是最贫困国家完成经济增长的艰巨任务。

To end poverty — especially when considering poverty lines that are higher than the average income in a country — an economy needs to grow.

为了消除贫困——特别是考虑到高于一个国家平均收入的贫困线——经济需要增长。

But it’s not only about macroeconomic performance.

但这不仅仅与宏观经济表现有关。

Social policy and direct household-level support, too, make an important difference.

社会政策和直接家庭层面的支持也能产生重要影响。

Even in very poor economies, there is scope for targeted policies to support the very poorest.

即使在非常贫穷的经济体，也可以采取有针对性的政策来支持最贫穷的人。

In an analysis of how today’s richest countries left extreme poverty behind, Martin Ravallion emphasizes the role the expanded social protection policies played at the time.

在分析当今最富裕国家如何摆脱极端贫困时，马丁·拉瓦利恩强调了当时扩大的社会保护政策所发挥的作用。

See Martin Ravallion (2015) – The Economics of Poverty: History, Measurement, and Policy and section 8 in Martin Ravallion (2016) – Are the world’s poorest being left behind?

请参阅 Martin Ravallion (2015) –《贫困经济学：历史、衡量和政策》以及 Martin Ravallion (2016) – 世界上最贫穷的人是否被抛在后面？第 8 节

In the Journal of Economic Growth.

在《经济增长杂志》中。

Online here https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10887-016-9126-7

在线这里https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10887-016-9126-7

And in our time, we also have an opportunity that was not there in the past, when almost everyone was desperately poor.

在我们这个时代，我们也有一个过去没有的机会，当时几乎每个人都极度贫困。

The fact that some people are very poor, while others are very rich, means that it is possible to redistribute from the rich to the poor globally.

一些人非常贫穷，而另一些人非常富有，这一事实意味着全球范围内从富人到穷人的重新分配是可能的。

The non-profit organization GiveDirectly makes possible what its name suggests: you can give cash directly to the poorest people in the world.

非营利组织 GiveDirectly 使之成为可能，正如其名称所示：您可以直接向世界上最贫困的人提供现金。

Growth, national, and international redistribution.

增长、国家和国际再分配。

There are ways to continue the progress against the worst poverty.

有多种方法可以继续在消除最严重贫困方面取得进展。

Our articles and data visualizations rely on work from many different people and organizations.

我们的文章和数据可视化依赖于许多不同的人和组织的工作。

When citing this article, please also cite the underlying data sources.

引用本文时，请同时注明底层数据来源。

This article can be cited as:

这篇文章可以引用为：

We are a live site and we keep our work maintained.

我们是一个活跃的网站，我们会保持我们的工作。

So our articles are often changed, including the data.

所以我们的文章经常改，包括数据。

You can browse previous versions of this work here.

您可以在此处浏览此作品的先前版本。