Could biofuels meet demand for global aviation?
Most of the world’s liquid biofuels currently go into cars and trucks, not planes.
目前，世界上大多数液体生物燃料都用于汽车和卡车，而不是飞机。
But how will this change in the future?
但这种情况未来会发生怎样的变化呢？
Electric vehicles look like the leading decarbonization solution for road transport.
电动汽车看起来是道路运输领先的脱碳解决方案。
Plummeting costs of batteries have made electric cars (and increasingly trucks) competitive with petrol and diesel ones.
电池成本的大幅下降使得电动汽车（以及越来越多的卡车）与汽油和柴油汽车竞争。
The outlook for aviation is less clear.
航空业的前景不太明朗。
Short-haul flights might go electric.
短途航班可能会改用电动飞机。
Long-haul ones will be more challenging to electrify (although some analysts remain optimistic).
长途运输的电气化将更具挑战性（尽管一些分析师仍然乐观）。
1 Hydrogen is one possible alternative to jet fuel, but it is still far from commercial scale.
1 氢气是喷气燃料的一种可能替代品，但距离商业规模还很远。
Another option that gets a lot of attention is biofuels.
另一种备受关注的选择是生物燃料。
A small amount of biofuels is already blended into jet fuel supplies in some countries.
在一些国家，少量生物燃料已经混合到喷气燃料供应中。
In 2023, Virgin Atlantic made headlines when it flew the first transatlantic flight powered entirely by biofuels.
2023 年，维珍航空 (Virgin Atlantic) 因首次完全由生物燃料驱动的跨大西洋航班而成为头条新闻。
For many airlines, biofuels are currently the most practical decarbonization option.
对于许多航空公司来说，生物燃料是目前最实用的脱碳选择。
2
2
But how much biofuel does aviation actually use today?
但如今航空业实际使用了多少生物燃料？
How much would be needed to replace fossil jet fuel — and could popular sources such as waste cooking oils ever meet that demand?
需要多少来替代化石航空燃料——废弃食用油等流行来源能否满足这一需求？
Two statements summarize the current situation with biofuels and aviation today.
两份声明总结了当今生物燃料和航空业的现状。
First, only a tiny share of global biofuel production is used for air travel — about 1% of it.
首先，全球生物燃料生产中只有一小部分用于航空旅行——大约占 1%。
3 Most is used for road transport.
3 大部分用于公路运输。
Second, biofuels make up only a very small fraction of aviation fuel itself.
其次，生物燃料仅占航空燃料本身的一小部分。
We estimate around 0.4%.
我们估计约为 0.4%。
4
4
In other words, aviation still runs almost entirely on fossil jet fuel.
换句话说，航空业仍然几乎完全依赖化石喷气燃料。
Despite decades of innovation and discussions about moving to more sustainable options, the fuel mix has barely changed.
尽管数十年来关于转向更可持续的选择的创新和讨论，燃料结构几乎没有改变。
Let’s imagine we went all-in on the electrification of road transport and biofuels were no longer needed for cars and trucks.
想象一下，我们全力推进道路运输电气化，汽车和卡车不再需要生物燃料。
Would the world’s biofuels power every plane instead?
世界上的每架飞机都会使用生物燃料吗？
In 2024, the world produced an estimated 1,400 terawatt-hours (TWh) of energy in the form of liquid biofuels.
到 2024 年，全球以液体生物燃料的形式生产的能源预计为 1,400 太瓦时 (TWh)。
The global aviation fleet consumed 3,932 TWh.
全球机队消耗 3,932 太瓦时。
5 That means we would need to almost triple global biofuel production to meet today’s demand.
5 这意味着我们需要将全球生物燃料产量增加近两倍才能满足当今的需求。
This is in the most optimistic case.
这是最乐观的情况。
Reallocating all of the world’s bioethanol and biodiesel to aviation is not a one-to-one swap.
将世界上所有的生物乙醇和生物柴油重新分配给航空业并不是一对一的交换。
Producing jet-equivalent fuel from bio-based inputs also yields non-jet co-products such as naphtha, fuel gas, or diesel, and involves conversion losses.
从生物基原料生产喷气机当量燃料也会产生非喷气机副产品，如石脑油、燃气或柴油，并涉及转化损失。
Depending on the pathway, perhaps only 30% to 80% of it ends up as jet fuel.
根据途径的不同，也许只有 30% 到 80% 最终成为喷气燃料。
If we assume 50%, only around 700 TWh of energy would be available for aviation — enough to meet just one-sixth of today’s demand.
如果我们假设 50%，则只有约 700 TWh 的能源可用于航空——仅足以满足当今需求的六分之一。
Keep in mind that at least 32 million hectares — a Germany-sized area of land — is already used to produce liquid biofuels.
请记住，至少 3200 万公顷（相当于德国面积的土地）已用于生产液体生物燃料。
Based on the current mix of biofuel crops we grow, we’d need between three and six times the area of Germany.
根据我们目前种植的生物燃料作物的组合，我们需要三到六倍于德国的面积。
But we’d also expect aviation demand to continue growing; how much will depend on trends in air travel demand and improvements in aircraft efficiency.
但我们也预计航空需求将继续增长；多少将取决于航空旅行需求的趋势和飞机效率的提高。
In the past, efficiency gains have been impressive: the amount of fuel burned per passenger-kilometer has dropped by more than 60% since 1990.
过去，效率提升令人印象深刻：自 1990 年以来，每乘客公里燃烧的燃油量已下降 60% 以上。
7
7
In a paper published in Nature Sustainability , Candelaria Bergero and colleagues modeled aviation energy demand in 2050 under different assumptions.
在《自然可持续发展》杂志上发表的一篇论文中，Candelaria Bergero 及其同事在不同的假设下对 2050 年的航空能源需求进行了建模。
8 They estimated that energy demand ranges from as little as 1,200 TWh in a scenario where plane efficiency improves dramatically, to 7,600 TWh in a “business-as-usual” scenario.
8 他们估计，能源需求范围从飞机效率大幅提高的情况下的 1,200 太瓦时到“一切照常”情况下的 7,600 太瓦时。
9
9
In the business-as-usual case, biofuel production would need to increase five to tenfold to meet aviation demand with today’s fuel mix.
在一切照旧的情况下，生物燃料产量需要增加五到十倍才能满足当今燃料结构的航空需求。
10 Even in optimistic scenarios, aviation efficiency would need to improve at over four times the historical rate to make biofuels a dominant solution.
10 即使在乐观的情况下，航空效率也需要以历史速度四倍以上的速度提高，才能使生物燃料成为主要解决方案。
The aviation industry itself acknowledges this gap — particularly if biofuels are expected to carry the decarbonization burden alone, without alternatives such as hydrogen.
航空业本身也承认这一差距——特别是如果预计生物燃料将单独承担脱碳负担，而无需氢等替代品的话。
11
11
One of the major drawbacks of biofuels produced from food crops is the amount of land they use.
用粮食作物生产生物燃料的主要缺点之一是它们使用的土地数量。
Growing fuel on fertile land has a high opportunity cost: that land could be used to produce food or freed up for nature to recover.
在肥沃的土地上种植燃料具有很高的机会成本：这些土地可以用来生产粮食或腾出土地供自然恢复。
There is one biofuel source that avoids this problem: used cooking oils and fats.
有一种生物燃料来源可以避免这个问题：用过的食用油和脂肪。
These are residues left behind, mostly from cooking vegetable oils and animal fats.
这些是残留物，主要来自烹饪植物油和动物脂肪。
Since these are waste, they are harnessing a resource that would otherwise need to be managed and disposed of.
由于这些都是废物，他们正在利用原本需要管理和处置的资源。
Many early trials of aviation biofuels have relied on these waste sources.
许多航空生物燃料的早期试验都依赖于这些废物来源。
But could they ever supply a meaningful share of global aviation energy?
但它们能否在全球航空能源中提供有意义的份额？
The amount of waste oils and fats generated worldwide is uncertain.
全球产生的废油和脂肪数量尚不确定。
In their recent Agricultural Outlook , the OECD and FAO estimated that global waste oils and fats production was around 25 million tonnes in 2023.
经合组织和粮农组织在最近的《农业展望》中估计，到 2023 年，全球废弃油脂产量约为 2500 万吨。
12 Converted into aviation fuel, this could provide at most around 150 TWh of energy — just 4% of aviation demand today.
12 转换成航空燃料后，最多可提供约 150 太瓦时的能源——仅占当今航空需求的 4%。
13
13
This, however, represents an upper bound.
然而，这代表了一个上限。
It assumes all of the world’s waste oils are collected and processed, and that all of them are allocated to aviation.
它假设世界上所有的废油都被收集和处理，并且全部分配给航空业。
Some sources suggest that global waste oil and fat production is slightly larger.
一些消息来源表明，全球废油和废脂肪的产量略大。
14 But these differences would only increase its share of global aviation demand by a few percentage points.
14 但这些差异只会使其在全球航空需求中的份额增加几个百分点。
Using any of these estimates, the maximum is still likely to be well below 10%.
使用任何这些估计，最大值仍然可能远低于 10%。
Waste oils can, therefore, make a small contribution to jet fuels.
因此，废油对航空燃油的贡献很小。
However, the majority would still have to come from elsewhere: biofuels from food crops, hydrogen, or electricity for shorter flights.
然而，大多数燃料仍然必须来自其他地方：来自粮食作物的生物燃料、氢气或短途航班所需的电力。
We send two regular newsletters so you can stay up to date on our work and receive curated highlights from across Our World in Data.
我们定期发送两份时事通讯，以便您及时了解我们的工作并接收来自“我们的数据世界”的精选亮点。
This analysis aimed to put the numbers in perspective: how much biofuel aviation uses today, and what it would take to replace a substantial share of jet fuel in the future.
这项分析旨在正确地看待这些数字：当今航空使用了多少生物燃料，以及未来需要什么来替代大量的喷气燃料。
The conclusions are clear.
结论很清楚。
It is extremely unlikely that the world could run the entire global aviation fleet on biofuels.
世界上整个航空机队都使用生物燃料运行是极其不可能的。
With today’s crops and technologies — corn, sugar crops, vegetable oils, and waste oils — supply falls far short of demand.
对于当今的农作物和技术——玉米、糖料作物、植物油和废油——供应远远低于需求。
Global biofuel supply would need to almost triple, and all of it would need to be allocated to air travel.
全球生物燃料供应将需要增加近两倍，并且所有这些都需要分配给航空旅行。
Biofuels can contribute to decarbonizing aviation, but only to a limited extent.
生物燃料可以促进航空业脱碳，但程度有限。
Any credible pathway to deep emissions cuts will need other technologies — such as hydrogen and electrification — to cover what biofuels cannot.
任何可靠的深度减排途径都需要其他技术——例如氢能和电气化——来解决生物燃料无法解决的问题。
We would like to thank Max Roser and Edouard Mathieu for editorial feedback and comments on this article.
我们要感谢 Max Roser 和 Edouard Mathieu 对本文的编辑反馈和评论。
The world dedicates a Poland-sized area of land to liquid biofuels.
世界将波兰大小的土地用于生产液体生物燃料。
Is there a more efficient way to generate energy?
有没有更有效的方式来产生能量？
How much bioenergy does the world produce, and what is it used for?
世界生产了多少生物能源，其用途是什么？
Aviation accounts for 2.5% of global CO₂ emissions.
航空业占全球二氧化碳排放量的 2.5%。
But it has contributed around 4% to global warming to date.
但迄今为止，它对全球变暖造成了约 4% 的影响。
Afonso, F., Sohst, M., Diogo, C.
阿丰索，F.，索斯特，M.，迪奥戈，C.
M., Rodrigues, S.
M.、罗德里格斯、S.
S., Ferreira, A., Ribeiro, I., ...
S.，费雷拉，A.，里贝罗，I.，...
& Suleman, A.
＆苏莱曼，A.
(2023).
（2023）。
Strategies towards a more sustainable aviation: A systematic review.
实现更可持续航空的战略：系统回顾。
Progress in Aerospace Sciences.
航空航天科学进展。
Neste is just one example.
内斯特只是一个例子。
It provides fuel from used cooking oil and animal fat waste, which can be blended into existing jet fuel supplies.
它从用过的食用油和动物脂肪废物中提供燃料，可以将其混合到现有的喷气燃料供应中。
In 2024, the International Energy Agency estimated that 1.8 billion liters of liquid biofuel were for “biojet” fuel.
国际能源署估计，到 2024 年，将有 18 亿升液体生物燃料用于“生物喷气”燃料。
Total production was 118 billion liters.
总产量为 1180 亿升。
That means biojet fuel was only 1%.
这意味着生物喷气燃料仅为 1%。
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that aviation energy demand in 2024 was 14.16 exajoules (EJ).
国际能源署（IEA）预计2024年航空能源需求为14.16艾焦耳（EJ）。
That’s equivalent to 3,932 terawatt-hours (TWh).
这相当于 3,932 太瓦时 (TWh)。
We estimate that biofuels used for aviation are equivalent to around 17 TWh.
我们估计用于航空的生物燃料相当于约 17 TWh。
The IEA estimates that 1.8 billion liters of biojet fuel were used in 2024.
IEA 估计 2024 年生物喷气燃料的使用量为 18 亿升。
With an energy content of 34 MJ per litre, this is equivalent to 61 billion MJ (or 0.061 EJ).
每升能量含量为 34 MJ，相当于 610 亿 MJ（或 0.061 EJ）。
That is equivalent to 17 TWh.
这相当于 17 TWh。
17 TWh is 0.43% of the 3,930 TWh demand [17/ 3,930 = 0.43%].
17 TWh 占 3,930 TWh 需求的 0.43% [17/ 3,930 = 0.43%]。
This is very similar to figures reported by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
这与国际航空运输协会（IATA）报告的数字非常相似。
It reported that , “In 2024, SAF production reached 1Mt (1.250 billion liters), doubling the amounts produced in 2023, representing 0.3% of global jet fuel use.”
报道称，“2024年，SAF产量达到1Mt（12.5亿升），是2023年产量的两倍，占全球航空燃油使用量的0.3%。”
By 2025, the IATA expected that this could be 0.6% of global demand.
IATA 预计到 2025 年，这可能占全球需求的 0.6%。
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that aviation energy demand in 2024 was 14.16 exajoules (EJ).
国际能源署（IEA）预计2024年航空能源需求为14.16艾焦耳（EJ）。
That’s equivalent to 3,932 terawatt-hours (TWh).
这相当于 3,932 太瓦时 (TWh)。
These figures are also roughly in line with estimates published in a paper by Bergero et al.
这些数字也大致符合 Bergero 等人在论文中发表的估计。
(2023).
（2023）。
They projected that energy demand in 2025 would be 13.1 EJ, equivalent to 3642 TWh.
他们预计 2025 年的能源需求将为 13.1 EJ，相当于 3642 TWh。
Dobruszkes, F., Mattioli, G., & Gozzoli, E.
Dobruszkes, F.、Mattioli, G. 和 Gozzoli, E.
(2024).
（2024）。
The elephant in the room: Long-haul air services and climate change.
房间里的大象：长途航空服务和气候变化。
Journal of Transport Geography.
交通地理杂志。
Bergero et al.
伯格罗等人。
(2023) report an energy intensity of 2.85 MJ per passenger-kilometer-equivalent in 1990.
(2023) 报告称，1990 年每乘客公里当量的能源强度为 2.85 MJ。
By 2021, this was 1.13 MJ.
到 2021 年，这一数字为 1.13 MJ。
That’s a 60% reduction.
减少了 60%。
Bergero, C., Gosnell, G., Gielen, D., Kang, S., Bazilian, M., & Davis, S.
Bergero, C.、Gosnell, G.、Gielen, D.、Kang, S.、Bazilian, M. 和 Davis, S.
J.
J。
(2023).
（2023）。
Pathways to net-zero emissions from aviation.
航空净零排放的途径。
Nature Sustainability.
自然可持续性。
In the business-as-usual scenario, efficiency continues to improve at 1% per year — the average rate of improvement in recent decades.
在一切照旧的情况下，效率继续以每年 1% 的速度提高——这是近几十年来的平均提高率。
In 2050, it reaches 27.2 exajoules (EJ), which is equivalent to 7,562 TWh [27.2 * 278 = 7,562].
2050 年，其能量将达到 27.2 艾焦耳 (EJ)，相当于 7,562 TWh [27.2 * 278 = 7,562]。
In the “ambitious” scenario, efficiency improves dramatically, at an average rate of 4% per year.
在“雄心勃勃”的场景中，效率显着提高，平均每年提高 4%。
Energy demand in this scenario is 4.17 EJ in 2050, which is equivalent to 1,159 TWh.
在这种情况下，2050 年的能源需求为 4.17 EJ，相当于 1,159 TWh。
The numbers in the main text have been rounded for simplicity.
为简单起见，正文中的数字已四舍五入。
The world currently produces 1,400 TWh in the form of liquid biofuels.
目前全球液体生物燃料产量为 1,400 TWh。
To reach 7,600 TWh, this would need to increase 5.4-fold.
要达到 7,600 TWh，需要增加 5.4 倍。
If we assume that only around half of biofuels can be converted into jet fuel, it would be around 10-fold.
如果我们假设只有大约一半的生物燃料可以转化为喷气燃料，那么这一数字将是原来的 10 倍左右。
In its Global Feedstock Assessment for SAF Production - Outlook to 2050 report, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) states that: “[...] around 400 Mt of SAF is forecast to be possible to produce in 2050.
国际航空运输协会 (IATA) 在其《SAF 生产全球原料评估 - 2050 年展望》报告中指出：“预计 2050 年将生产约 400 公吨 SAF。
Although this would be a major achievement, it is 100 Mt of SAF short of what will be needed in 2050.
尽管这将是一项重大成就，但仍比 2050 年所需的 SAF 少 100 吨。
Sustainable biomass feedstocks are largely available, though access can be limited, underlining the need for e-SAF.
可持续生物质原料在很大程度上是可用的，尽管获取可能有限，这凸显了对 e-SAF 的需求。
Still, the major barrier to reaching the 500 Mt needed in 2050 is the pace of technology rollout.”
尽管如此，要达到 2050 年所需的 500 公吨，主要障碍是技术推广的速度。”
OECD/FAO (2025), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, Paris and Rome, https://doi.org/10.1787/601276cd-en .
经合组织/粮农组织（2025），《经合组织-粮农组织农业展望 2025-2034》，巴黎和罗马，https://doi.org/10.1787/601276cd-en。
We’ve taken the specific data from this interactive chart , accompanying the report.
我们从报告随附的交互式图表中获取了具体数据。
To convert the 25 million tonnes of waste oils and fats into jet fuel energy, we use HEFA conversion yields reported by IEA Bioenergy .
为了将 2500 万吨废油和脂肪转化为喷气燃料能源，我们使用了 IEA Bioenergy 报告的 HEFA 转化率。
They describe a typical configuration in which around 13% of the incoming oil ends up as jet fuel, and a jet-maximising configuration in which this can rise to around 50%.
他们描述了一种典型的配置，其中大约 13% 的进入油最终成为喷气燃料，以及一种喷气最大化配置，其中该比例可以上升到 50% 左右。
Applying these yields and using an energy content of 43 MJ/kg for jet fuel, this corresponds to 39 to 149 TWh of energy.
应用这些产量并使用 43 MJ/kg 的喷气燃料能量含量，这相当于 39 至 149 TWh 的能量。
Since global aviation demand is around 3,900 TWh, this would supply 1% to 4% of demand.
由于全球航空需求约为 3,900 太瓦时，这将满足需求的 1% 至 4%。
A study by Ecofys , for example, had estimates of 34 million tonnes, rather than the 25 million tonnes we assumed above.
例如，Ecofys 的一项研究估计为 3400 万吨，而不是我们上面假设的 2500 万吨。
Our articles and data visualizations rely on work from many different people and organizations.
我们的文章和数据可视化依赖于许多不同的人和组织的工作。
When citing this article, please also cite the underlying data sources.
引用本文时，请同时注明底层数据来源。
This article can be cited as:
这篇文章可以引用为：
We are a live site and we keep our work maintained.
我们是一个活跃的网站，我们会保持我们的工作。
So our articles are often changed, including the data.
所以我们的文章经常改，包括数据。
You can browse previous versions of this work here.
您可以在此处浏览此作品的先前版本。