Battery costs have declined by 99% in the last three decades, making electrified transport a reality

Over 20 million electric cars were sold globally in 2025.

2025 年，全球电动汽车销量将超过 2000 万辆。

Most of these cars sold for around $40,000, but some are now as cheap as $10,000.

这些汽车大部分售价约为 40,000 美元，但有些现在便宜至 10,000 美元。

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Even just two decades ago, these prices and sales figures would have been impossible.

即使在二十年前，这些价格和销售数字也是不可能的。

That’s because the batteries were far too expensive.

那是因为电池太贵了。

The chart below shows the decline in lithium-ion battery cell prices since 1991.

下图显示了自1991年以来锂离子电池价格的下降情况。

Note that this is shown on a logarithmic scale.

请注意，这是以对数刻度显示的。

The price declined by more than 99%.

价格下跌超过99%。

In 1991, lithium-ion batteries cost around $9,200 per kilowatt-hour — 33 years later, they cost just $78.

1991 年，锂离子电池的成本约为每千瓦时 9,200 美元，33 年后，其成本仅为 78 美元。

Let’s put that in perspective.

让我们正确看待这一点。

The battery cells you’d find in a standard electric car today, which give around 220 to 250 miles (350 to 400 kilometers) of range, cost around $5,000.

如今，标准电动汽车中的电池续航里程约为 220 至 250 英里（350 至 400 公里），价格约为 5,000 美元。

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Just a decade ago, this would have cost over $20,000, as much as many would pay for the entire car itself.

就在十年前，这将花费超过 20,000 美元，相当于许多人购买整辆车的价格。

And back in 1991, almost $600,000.

1991 年，将近 60 万美元。

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What’s promising is that the drop in prices continues: they’ve fallen by a third in just the last few years.

令人鼓舞的是，价格持续下跌：仅在过去几年里，价格就下跌了三分之一。

We send two regular newsletters so you can stay up to date on our work and receive curated highlights from across Our World in Data.

我们定期发送两份时事通讯，以便您及时了解我们的工作并接收来自“我们的数据世界”的精选亮点。

For technologies like batteries, prices fall with production.

对于电池等技术来说，价格随着产量的增加而下降。

That's because they follow a learning curve: as cumulative production grows, innovators and engineers find incremental improvements in chemistry, manufacturing, and supply chains, driving a continuous fall in prices.

这是因为他们遵循一条学习曲线：随着累计产量的增长，创新者和工程师发现化学、制造和供应链不断改进，从而推动价格持续下降。

Batteries did not become cheaper because of one big breakthrough, but thanks to thousands of small ones.

电池变得更便宜并不是因为一项重大突破，而是得益于数千个小突破。

In the chart below, we’ve plotted the price of lithium-ion batteries against their cumulative production globally.

在下图中，我们绘制了锂离子电池的价格与其全球累计产量的关系图。

Both axes are logarithmic.

两个轴都是对数的。

Back in 1991, the market was tiny: just 130 kilowatt-hours had been produced worldwide.

早在 1991 年，市场规模就很小：全球仅生产了 130 千瓦时。

Just enough to power two of today's electric cars.

足以为当今的两辆电动汽车提供动力。

Since then, production has grown dramatically, and as more batteries were produced, prices fell (which in turn created more demand and further increased production).

从那时起，产量急剧增长，并且随着电池产量的增加，价格下降（反过来又创造了更多的需求并进一步增加了产量）。

By the end of 2023, global cumulative production had increased by a factor of 27 million from 1991 levels.

到2023年底，全球累计产量比1991年增加了2700万倍。

In the early 1990s, the price decline was much slower than you see for the rest of the curve.

20 世纪 90 年代初，价格下降速度比曲线其余部分要慢得多。

This was for several reasons.

这是有几个原因的。

The market at the time was incredibly immature and relied on expensive and niche supply chains.

当时的市场极其不成熟，依赖于昂贵且利基的供应链。

The electronics company Sony largely held a monopoly over early technology, reducing market competition and making cost reductions a lower priority than improvements in scaling, safety, and battery lifespan.

电子公司索尼在很大程度上垄断了早期技术，减少了市场竞争，并使降低成本的重要性低于改进规模、安全性和电池寿命。

It wasn’t until the late 1990s that other competitors — particularly South Korean brands such as Samsung and LG, and later Chinese manufacturers — entered the market, which brought fierce price competition and large-scale automated production.

直到20世纪90年代末，其他竞争对手——特别是三星和LG等韩国品牌，以及后来的中国制造商——才进入市场，带来了激烈的价格竞争和大规模自动化生产。

From 1998 onwards, every time the global cumulative battery production doubled, the price dropped by roughly 19%.

从1998年开始，全球电池累计产量每翻一番，价格就会下降大约19%。

This is similar to the learning rate of solar panels; every time global production doubled, prices fell by around 20%.

这与太阳能电池板的学习率类似；全球产量每翻一番，价格就会下跌 20% 左右。

Not all of this progress was driven by innovation for electric transport and renewable energy.

并非所有这些进步都是由电力运输和可再生能源创新推动的。

In the 1990s and early 2000s, the main market for lithium-ion batteries was consumer electronics.

在20世纪90年代和2000年代初期，锂离子电池的主要市场是消费电子产品。

The development of smaller batteries in products such as phones and laptops came first; only later did they become viable for cars, buses, and larger energy storage.

首先是手机和笔记本电脑等产品中较小电池的开发；直到后来，它们才变得适用于汽车、公共汽车和更大的能源存储。

But price was not the only barrier.

但价格并不是唯一的障碍。

Falling costs were needed to make electric vehicles affordable, and better energy density was needed to make them practical.

需要降低成本才能使电动汽车价格实惠，并且需要更高的能量密度才能使其实用。

This energy density — how much electrical energy a battery can store for its volume — has more than tripled since the 1990s.

自 20 世纪 90 年代以来，能量密度（电池在其体积内可存储的电能）增加了两倍多。

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That means more energy for less space and weight.

这意味着用更少的空间和重量提供更多的能量。

Cars can now have larger batteries with enough capacity to go hundreds of miles without becoming impractically heavy or inefficient.

汽车现在可以配备更大的电池，其容量足以行驶数百英里，而不会变得过于沉重或效率低下。

Lighter batteries open up opportunities for the electrification of trucks, and even small airplanes and ships, where weight is crucial.

更轻的电池为卡车甚至小型飞机和船舶的电气化提供了机会，因为重量对这些领域至关重要。

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The huge decline in the cost of solar power — particularly during the 2010s — transformed it from one of the most expensive sources of electricity to the cheapest.

太阳能成本的大幅下降（尤其是在 2010 年代）使其从最昂贵的电力来源之一转变为最便宜的电力来源。

What has been missing, not only for the deployment of renewable energy but for the takeoff of electrified transport, has been cheap storage.

无论是可再生能源的部署，还是电气化交通的起飞，都缺少的是廉价的存储。

That cheaper storage is now arriving.

更便宜的存储现已到来。

Three decades ago, lithium-ion batteries were a niche technology for mobile phones and early laptops.

三十年前，锂离子电池是手机和早期笔记本电脑的一项利基技术。

Today, they power tens of millions of cars and store electricity in homes and on power grids worldwide.

如今，它们为数千万辆汽车提供动力，并在全球家庭和电网中储存电力。

The half-a-million-dollar battery was never going to transform transport.

价值 50 万美元的电池永远不会改变交通运输。

The $5,000 battery is.

5000美元的电池是。

Many thanks to Max Roser and Edouard Mathieu for editorial feedback and comments on this article, and to Marwa Boukarim for design help with the visualizations.

非常感谢 Max Roser 和 Edouard Mathieu 对本文的编辑反馈和评论，并感谢 Marwa Boukarim 在可视化方面提供的设计帮助。

Technologies that follow Wright’s Law get cheaper at a consistent rate, as the cumulative production of that technology increases.

随着该技术累计产量的增加，遵循赖特定律的技术会以一致的速度变得更便宜。

In most places, power from new renewables is now cheaper than new fossil fuels.

在大多数地方，新的可再生能源发电现在比新的化石燃料便宜。

Some of the bestselling electric cars in China are sold locally for the equivalent of around $10,000.

中国一些最畅销的电动汽车在当地的售价约为 10,000 美元。

In other markets, they would be more expensive.

在其他市场，它们会更贵。

Standard electric cars in a country like the United Kingdom tend to cost somewhere between $35,000 and $45,000.

在英国等国家，标准电动汽车的价格往往在 35,000 美元至 45,000 美元之间。

Smaller cars are a bit cheaper.

较小的汽车会便宜一些。

Electric cars vary in the size of their battery, ranging from just a few tens of kilowatt-hours for small cars designed for city-driving, to over 100 kWh for long-range cars.

电动汽车的电池容量各不相同，从专为城市行驶而设计的小型汽车的仅为几十千瓦时，到长途汽车的超过 100 千瓦时。

The average car sold today is somewhere in the range of 50 to 80 kWh.

目前销售的汽车平均功率在 50 至 80 kWh 之间。

To calculate the cost, I’ve assumed the battery is 63 kWh.

为了计算成本，我假设电池为 63 kWh。

63 kWh multiplied by $78 per kWh = $4,914.

63 千瓦时乘以每千瓦时 78 美元 = 4,914 美元。

Once you include the rest of the battery pack — cooling systems, casing, and electronics — it might have been as much as $6,000 or $7,000.

如果算上电池组的其余部分（冷却系统、外壳和电子设备），价格可能高达 6,000 或 7,000 美元。

The typical efficiency of an electric car is around 3.5 to 4 miles per kWh.

电动汽车的典型效率约为每千瓦时 3.5 至 4 英里。

That gives a stated range of around 221 to 252 miles for a 63 kWh battery.

63 kWh 电池的额定续航里程约为 221 至 252 英里。

Depending on driving style, speed, and weather, the real-world range can be around 20% lower than the advertised range.

根据驾驶风格、速度和天气的不同，实际行驶里程可能比宣传行驶里程低 20% 左右。

For the entire battery pack, it’s probably around $6,000 or $7,000.

整个电池组的价格可能约为 6,000 或 7,000 美元。

63 kWh multiplied by $9,210 per kWh = $580,000.

63 千瓦时乘以每千瓦时 9,210 美元 = 580,000 美元。

Again, once you include the rest of the battery pack, it might have been as much as $800,000.

同样，如果算上电池组的其余部分，价格可能高达 800,000 美元。

In 1991, you could only get 200 watt-hours of capacity per liter of battery.

1991 年，每升电池只能提供 200 瓦时的容量。

You can now get over 700 watt-hours.

您现在可以获得超过 700 瓦时的电量。

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重新审视锂离子电池技术进步和成本下降的速度。

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能源与环境科学。

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净零排放能源系统。

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电池性能对混合动力通用航空飞机初始尺寸的影响。

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航空航天工程学报。

Our articles and data visualizations rely on work from many different people and organizations.

我们的文章和数据可视化依赖于许多不同的人和组织的工作。

When citing this article, please also cite the underlying data sources.

引用本文时，请同时注明底层数据来源。

This article can be cited as:

这篇文章可以引用为：

We are a live site and we keep our work maintained.

我们是一个活跃的网站，我们会保持我们的工作。

So our articles are often changed, including the data.

所以我们的文章经常改，包括数据。

You can browse previous versions of this work here.

您可以在此处浏览此作品的先前版本。