Why these 5 everyday items fluctuate in price at the grocery store

Heard on All Things Considered Ever since the pandemic, grocery prices have been out of whack.

自从大流行以来，杂货价格一直不正常。

COVID-related lockdowns forced people to eat at home more often, and in April 2020 grocery prices took their biggest leap in decades , increasing 2.6% from the month earlier.

与新冠疫情相关的封锁迫使人们更频繁地在家吃饭，2020 年 4 月杂货价格出现数十年来的最大涨幅，环比上涨 2.6%。

Then, in 2022, food prices began another upward swing as Americans with cash on hand returned to stores in large numbers and retailers struggled to meet the pent-up demand.

然后，到了 2022 年，食品价格开始再次上涨，因为手头有现金的美国人大量返回商店，零售商难以满足被压抑的需求。

The food system faced other shocks that year, including a severe avian flu outbreak and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

那一年，粮食系统还面临其他冲击，包括严重的禽流感爆发和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。

Grocery prices rose 11.4% in 2022 alone.

仅 2022 年，杂货价格就上涨了 11.4%。

That period of dramatic food inflation slowed down in 2023, though prices generally haven't returned to previous levels.

尽管价格总体上尚未恢复到之前的水平，但那段时期的食品大幅通​​胀在 2023 年有所放缓。

Instead, grocery costs have continued to rise, just at a slower rate, roughly in line with overall inflation.

相反，杂货成本继续上涨，只是上涨速度较慢，大致与整体通胀一致。

"But the damage had been done," said Ricky Volpe, a professor of agribusiness at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo.

“但损害已经造成，”加州理工大学圣路易斯奥比斯波分校农业综合企业教授里​​基·沃尔普说。

"Any inflation that happens now in the grocery store is on top of these already very high prices, and consumers are very sensitive to that."

“杂货店现在发生的任何通货膨胀都是在已经非常高的价格之上发生的，消费者对此非常敏感。”

President Trump pledged to lower grocery prices in his second term.

特朗普总统承诺在第二任期内降低杂货价格。

And while some individual items have become cheaper since Trump returned to office, overall grocery prices are up on average.

尽管自特朗普重返办公室以来，一些个别商品变得更便宜，但杂货的整体价格平均上涨。

That has been driven by a number of systemwide factors, from increased labor costs to tariffs to higher energy prices caused by the war with Iran.

这是由一系列系统性因素推动的，从劳动力成本增加到关税，再到与伊朗战争导致的能源价格上涨。

Zoom in on a single food item, though, and the story is often more complicated.

然而，放大单一食品，故事往往会更加复杂。

Specific issues facing one crop, animal species or geographic region can influence the retail price halfway around the world.

一种作物、动物物种或地理区域面临的具体问题可能会影响半个地球的零售价格。

Sometimes, the price of an item swings far beyond what inflation itself can explain, or the price goes down when most other items are trending up.

有时，某种商品的价格波动远远超出通货膨胀本身所能解释的范围，或者当大多数其他商品呈上涨趋势时，价格却下跌。

We picked five everyday food items — ground beef, eggs, coffee, butter and chocolate chip cookies — to explain the complicated math behind what you pay in the grocery store checkout line.

我们挑选了五种日常食品——碎牛肉、鸡蛋、咖啡、黄油和巧克力饼干——来解释你在杂货店结账队伍中支付的复杂数学。

The cost of ground beef has been on the rise for years, largely due to weather and financial pressures on producers.

多年来，碎牛肉的成本一直在上涨，这主要是由于天气和生产商面临的财务压力。

A typical pound of ground beef last month cost $6.79, an 85% jump from a decade earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

根据美国劳工统计局的数据，上个月一磅碎牛肉的价格为 6.79 美元，比十年前上涨了 85%。

Recent droughts have devastated U.S. cattle herds, which can take years to recover.

最近的干旱摧毁了美国的牛群，可能需要数年时间才能恢复。

Layered onto that are the rising costs of farming equipment and fuel, a lack of land for grazing and a consolidated meatpacking industry that farmers and ranchers say eats into their profits.

除此之外，农业设备和燃料成本不断上涨、缺乏放牧土地以及肉类加工业的整合，农民和牧场主称这些都侵蚀了他们的利润。

The number of U.S. cattle farms has been shrinking , according to the most recent Census of Agriculture.

根据最新的农业普查，美国养牛场的数量一直在萎缩。

"I think there's still a sector of young people that have an interest in ag, but the barriers to entry to agriculture are huge," said Reid Hall, a Kentucky cattle farmer.

“我认为仍然有一部分年轻人对农业感兴趣，但进入农业的障碍巨大，”肯塔基州的养牛户里德霍尔说。

All of that has led to the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75 years.

所有这些导致美国牛群数量达到 75 年来最小。

The Trump administration has tried a number of measures to lower ground beef prices over the past two years, including allowing in more imports of ground beef with no tariffs.

过去两年，特朗普政府尝试了多种措施来降低碎牛肉价格，包括允许更多零关税进口碎牛肉。

But U.S. ranchers have largely panned such moves, arguing that increasing the amount of imported ground beef will only make it harder — and more expensive — for U.S. farms and ranches to operate.

但美国牧场主对此类举措基本上持反对态度，他们认为增加碎牛肉进口量只会让美国农场和牧场的运营变得更加困难，而且成本也会更高。

In recent years, the seesawing price of eggs has largely come down to avian flu , which affects wild birds and poultry.

近年来，鸡蛋价格的波动很大程度上归因于影响野生鸟类和家禽的禽流感。

Large outbreaks force farms to cull their flocks to prevent the spread of the disease, diminishing the domestic supply of chickens and raising prices.

大规模疫情迫使农场扑杀鸡群以防止疾病传播，从而减少了国内鸡肉供应并提高了价格。

That's what happened in 2022 and again in 2024, when there was a spike in the price of eggs, followed by a steep drop-off.

2022 年和 2024 年都发生过这种情况，当时鸡蛋价格飙升，随后急剧下跌。

How damaging avian flu is in a given season depends on the severity of the outbreak and the success of any biosecurity measures that U.S. farms take in response to the disease.

禽流感在特定季节的破坏性有多大，取决于疫情爆发的严重程度以及美国农场针对该疾病采取的生物安全措施是否成功。

Outbreaks can have a whiplash effect on egg prices.

疫情爆发可能会对鸡蛋价格产生巨大影响。

An average dozen reached a record high of $6.23 in March of last year, when stocks were depleted by a brutal avian flu season.

去年 3 月，残酷的禽流感季节导致库存耗尽，平均每打价格达到 6.23 美元的历史新高。

Yet last month, the typical U.S. price had dropped to $2.27 per dozen.

然而上个月，美国的平均价格已跌至每打 2.27 美元。

Though avian flu is the main driver of egg prices, it's not the only thing that can scramble U.S. poultry operations.

尽管禽流感是鸡蛋价格的主要推动因素，但它并不是扰乱美国家禽养殖业的唯一因素。

The Trump administration's tariffs on foreign goods have also raised the cost of packaging materials , such as cardboard, that are used in egg cartons.

特朗普政府对外国商品征收的关税也提高了鸡蛋盒中使用的纸板等包装材料的成本。

The U.S. imports more than 99% of the coffee it consumes.

美国消费的咖啡99%以上依赖进口。

That was why the Trump administration's tariffs on countries like Brazil , which is responsible for 35% of the global coffee supply, were particularly bitter for U.S. coffee drinkers.

这就是为什么特朗普政府对占全球咖啡供应量 35% 的巴西等国家征收的关税对美国咖啡饮用者来说尤其痛苦。

Last fall, the Trump administration scrapped tariffs on some foreign goods in a bid to lower prices, and coffee made the list.

去年秋天，特朗普政府取消了对一些外国商品的关税，以降低价格，咖啡名列其中。

But the price of coffee last month was still 44% higher than it was two years before.

但上个月咖啡的价格仍比两年前高出 44%。

Severe weather and climate change are jolting harvests.

恶劣天气和气候变化正在影响收成。

Both drought and heavy rainfall in coffee-producing countries such as Brazil, Vietnam and Costa Rica have ground down coffee bean yields.

巴西、越南和哥斯达黎加等咖啡生产国的干旱和强降雨导致咖啡豆产量下降。

And excessive moisture on coffee farms can cause mold growth and disease.

咖啡农场的过度潮湿会导致霉菌生长和疾病。

Butter currently costs a lot less bread than it used to.

目前，黄油面包的价格比以前低了很多。

A pound of butter averaged $3.96 in September.

9 月份每磅黄油的平均价格为 3.96 美元。

That was down 17.3% since last year, bucking the trend of rising food prices.

自去年以来下降了 17.3%，与食品价格上涨的趋势相反。

Interest in butter has spread recently, nourishing a strong demand for the dairy product.

最近人们对黄油的兴趣不断蔓延，引发了对乳制品的强劲需求。

New dietary guidelines announced this year by Health Secretary Robert F.

卫生部长罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 (Robert F.

Kennedy Jr., who spearheaded the Make America Healthy Again movement, encourage people to eat fats like butter.

小肯尼迪是“让美国再次健康”运动的带头人，他鼓励人们吃黄油等脂肪。

Yet even though demand for butter is high, supply is even higher.

然而，尽管黄油的需求很高，但供应量却更高。

U.S. butter production is booming, in part because dairy farms grew their herds and increased milk supply to produce more milk proteins for popular foods like Greek yogurt and cottage cheese.

美国黄油生产正在蓬勃发展，部分原因是奶牛场扩大了牛群并增加了牛奶供应，为希腊酸奶和干酪等受欢迎的食品生产更多的牛奶蛋白。

That has also led to an oversupply of butter.

这也导致黄油供应过剩。

The price of chocolate chip cookies began to rise steeply during the pandemic, hitting a record $5.35 per pound this January.

疫情期间，巧克力饼干的价格开始大幅上涨，今年 1 月达到每磅 5.35 美元的历史新高。

(Last month, the classic treats were 20 cents cheaper.)

（上个月，经典美食便宜了 20 美分。）

Part of the price spike can be explained by looking at the ingredients that go into chocolate chip cookies.

价格上涨的部分原因可以通过查看巧克力曲奇饼的成分来解释。

The war in Ukraine ran up the cost of flour.

乌克兰战争导致面粉价格上涨。

Cocoa prices have hit multiple all-time highs in recent years.

近年来，可可价格屡创新高。

And avian flu largely determines what eggs go for in a given month.

禽流感在很大程度上决定了鸡蛋在特定月份的用途。

Some of those prices have come down recently, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last year that baked goods have remained pricey in part because of a high consumer demand for "more expensive luxury treats."

其中一些价格最近有所下降，但美国劳工统计局去年报告称，烘焙食品仍然价格昂贵，部分原因是消费者对“更昂贵的奢侈品”的需求很高。

Keegan Rodgers, founder and pastry chef at the Lakehouse Bakery in Chelsea, Mich., has resisted buying cheaper ingredients — such as margarine instead of butter — just to save money.

密歇根州切尔西 Lakehouse Bakery 的创始人兼糕点师基根·罗杰斯 (Keegan Rodgers) 一直拒绝购买更便宜的原料，例如用人造黄油代替黄油，只是为了省钱。

"If I switched to garden-variety ingredients, my costs would decrease by about 30%," he said.

“如果我改用普通原料，我的成本会降低约 30%，”他说。

But Rodgers, who noted that he is also paying more for labor and insurance, said he has reluctantly raised his prices to be able to afford high-quality ingredients and employ skilled bakers.

但罗杰斯指出，他还为劳动力和保险支付了更多费用，他表示，他不情愿地提高了价格，以便能够负担得起高质量的原料并雇用熟练的面包师。

"Real food is more important than the bottom line," he said.

“真正的食物比底线更重要，”他说。